On Madison Being a Bum: Not Yet

Many fans, rightfully so, are worried about Madison Bumgarner this spring. He suffered a sharp drop in velocity at the end of last season, and after his second start the other day, he did nothing to dispel the notion that he has lost it for good, throwing in the high 80's again, and not even touching 90 (read Baggarly's account).

Bumgarner happened to be interviewed this morning on the Giants flagship station, KNBR, and Murph asked him about that. Madison is not worried because it is still early spring, but was not happy about his outing, as he felt off. So he and Righetti, who he thinks is a great pitching coach because he knows so much and has given him a lot of good advice so far, watched some film of him throwing and he thinks that there is a slight flaw with his mechanics that is throwing off his results so far and that he'll be better with his next outing. However, I must note that he did not sound absolutely sure that this is the answer to his velocity problem, but was very sure that he can fix this flaw with his mechanics in his next outing.

As I have been noting, I don't think that there is anything to worry about. While he was not worried about his loss of velocity, he did notice when he came up to the majors that major league pitchers don't throw so much in between starts, and he surmised that this probably caused his arm to fatigue, resulting in his slower velocity, although his arm felt like normal to him.

My guess would be that in past off-seasons, he would throw during that time, but since he thought that his arm might be fatigued due to the extra throwing, he might not have thrown as much during this past off-season as he might have in years' past, and thus his throwing motion might be off kilter right now. Remember, he's relatively tall - 6' 4" - and taller guys have a tougher time keeping their mechanics consistent.

We are running out of games, though, to not worry more about it. But for now, I'm willing to drink the kool-aid, the explanations thus far seem logical enough to me, but his next start will be the big test because he will be starting the next game, as he has actually been relieving the past two "starts", paired up with Lincecum because none of the starting pitchers are ready to throw that many innings yet. That could also account for some of his unsteadiness, as he is used to being a starter, and maybe his adrenaline builds up waiting for his time to come into the game.

Hobbling Along: 2010 Giants Injury Status

Thought I would run by some of the injury updates that have come up over the past week or so:

Freddy Sanchez probably not ready by Opening Day

Everyone was expecting this anyway, so not real big news, but just further admission of this fait accompli. Which I think is good anyway. Why rush Sanchez into uniform? We have Juan Uribe to start in his place right now, plus perhaps Frandsen could get some starts as well if he's on the bench too. DeRosa can play there if necessary as well.

Meanwhile, that opens up a spot on the bench for somebody who may be out of options. It could enable the Giants to keep Steve Johnson, their Rule 5 pick, on the 25 man for a couple of weeks to see how he does. It could also enable the Giants to hold onto a player who is out of options, like Ishikawa (though I would note that the way they have made a point to talk about him, he was going to be on the bench barring some huge lack of spring performance), Lewis, and Torres. Recent news (giantsrainman captured it well here at McCovey Chronicles) verified that Frandsen and Velez still have one option left. I think Velez is going to end up in Fresno for 2011, however, particularly if Ishikawa is OK playing LF, as they plan to do this spring (plus Frandsen can play LF if he is on the bench as well).

I think the sure bench players are Whiteside (no way Posey starts as backup, he needs the EXPERIENCE), Uribe, and Ishikawa, leaving two spots, three with Sanchez on DL and Uribe starting. For the two spots, I'm still thinking Frandsen and Lewis, though with DeRosa capable, they could keep Torres around instead of Frandsen. But he had a lucky year in 2009, I would rather see Frandsen up and maybe getting a few starts while Sanchez is out.

The extra spot then goes to someone who otherwise would have been sent down, but did well enough in spring to get some reward. Johnson would be first on the list, and his bar for achievement is lower because we lose him otherwise. This article also noted that Johnson is being looked at as a 5th starter, which makes sense to me because he's been a starter for much of his minor league career.

Neal HBP in the head

Neal has a bump but otherwise has no ill affects, laughing it off, and thus is cleared to continue preparations for the season. Schulman reported that he got hit last year too. He is the only position prospect, other than Posey, that I think has any hope of contributing to the major league club this season (I'm not counting Bowker, Burriss, or Frandsen, since they don't count as a rookie, which most people use as the cutoff for prospects).

Burris and his left foot toe

On his second extra-base hit the other day, he came up feeling pain in the toe (fractured fifth metatarsal) that he hurt last year. He took himself out of the game as a precaution. He is on crutches but his X-ray was clean, so that is good. MRI is next step, which happened earlier today and he is hoping that all he did was tear scar tissue, in which case he could resume playing next week.

I don't expect him to win a bench job, they used recovery of injury to send Frandsen down last year, so I expect the same for Burriss this year plus they probably want him to get acclimated again with SS, since Renteria's contract is up this year (though there is a team option if I remember right) and Sanchez is signed to 2011.

Good news on Ishikawa and his step-toe

Travis tore some ligaments in his left foot, falling down the stairs recently (he described as similar to "turf-toe") and had been working out with a walking boot. He just got out of the boot and says that he is feeling great. As I noted above, Bochy has been high on Ishikawa, as can be seen in this blog post by Haft, indicating that Ishikawa "has [a] strong chance of claiming a Major League job."

It just makes sense to keep Ishikawa around. First, he played great defense at 1B and hit well in AT&T. Second, they don't have any 1B ready to take over should anything happens to Huff, other than Ishikawa, they don't have much depth. They could play DeRosa or Sandoval there, but that would then weaken LF or 3B, though I suppose they could move DeRosa to 3B, Sandoval to 1B, then whoever to LF (Lewis, Bowker, Velez). It just seems like, as I read Ishikawa noting somewhere recently, he understands that the Giants got Huff to compete this season, and so he's preparing himself to support the team. Third, he's currently our best option for 2011, unless Neal or Pill can have a monster year in 2010 and take over 1B. Given the Giants preference for defense at 1B, Ishikawa is probably going to be around for at least this year.

Mark DeRosa, chopping on the bit

He had his left wrist surgically repair last season and has been slowly getting into shape, not wishing to cause any setback by rushing things. He had been hoping to start the first game on Wednesday, but is not concerned that it is not 100% yet, as it just gets tired and he will need to build it up, by taking enough swings every day. He is reportedly "close to full batting practice", which is not as good as actually playing but a step closer to that goal.

Baggarly noted, however, that it is not uncommon for players who undergo wrist surgery to require a full year before they feel no pain or inflammation, and he was operated just after the season ended. So we'll see if DeRosa can play at his recent levels of offensive production or if he'll have a down season.

Fans not the only one embarrassed by Renteria in 2009

Renteria was embarassed too. His surgery was the simplest of all the surgeries and he appears to be recovering fine. Baggarly noted, "His swing looked unfettered as he pounded a couple of BP fastballs over the left-field fence." Bochy noted, "That elbow feels so much better. It's a sense of relief, too, knowing he can let the bat go with no pain." Hopefully this means a return to the good hitting he did in prior years, which would be a great boon to the lineup, as it could use another 800+ OPS hitter, at his high end, or even a mid to high 700 OPS hitter, which he was in other seasons.

Giants Thoughts

Nothing really to worry about above, though perhaps DeRosa. But if it is just fatigue, then the Giants can bring in somebody for him late in the game, that should not affect his production otherwise. And good news generally for all the players.

Plus, Sanchez on the DL allows the Giants to take an extended look at someone during the season, particularly Steve Johnson, the Rule 5 pick. That would also allow the Giants to justify returning Bumgarner to the minors and AAA, where he can pitch for a couple of months and either force his way onto the roster or perfect some more pitches, because if his velocity is down, he is not forcing his way onto the roster and will need those other pitches. That would allow the Giants to carry both Wellemeyer and Johnson, to take a look at both, until dropping one when Sanchez comes off the DL.

Sanchez being out also allows the Giants to take a closer look at Frandsen and other 2B options during the spring. They need to see these players in as many game situations as they can to figure out who best to keep and who to cut. Particularly if there are so many players who still have an option available, like Frandsen and Velez.

Bumgarner's Velocity

Bumgarner pitched today and there were reports all over about his velocity and lack thereof:

• Baggarly noted that Madison was around 86-89 MPH, from his peeking at the radar guns in the scouts section. Previously, he noted that Lincecum was 91-93 and that it was fine for a first outing.
• Chris Haft of sfgiants.com noted that Madison was in the 89-90 MPH range plus noted a plausible reason: "Bumgarner’s fastball was clocked in the 89-90 mph range, a tad slower than his best velocity readings. Then again, pitching coach Dave Righetti advised him not to overthrow. “He said, ’You’re not going to make the team on the first day,’ and that makes a lot of sense,” said Bumgarner, who’s competing for the fifth starter’s spot.""
• Someone at The Hardball Times, Harry Pavlidis, reported that someone directed him to PITCHf/x, which happened to record this start, and Bumgarner's average velocity was 89.3 MPH. That would suggest a range more like 88-91 MPH.
• Keith Law tweeted that: "Bumgarner was 87-88 in his second inning today."

Giants Thoughts

While this is not great news, it is not bad news either. Most important of all, it is not conclusive news.

Most pitchers are not throwing what they are capable of right now. As Haft reported, Righetti's advice to Bumgarner was to not overthrow, so it sounds like Madison took the advice to heart and threw more easily. The estimates are all around the same place, but given that PITCHf/x had him at 89.3 MPH average, it seems like either people's radar guns (which are notoriously inaccurate) are off or maybe people only paid attention when the numbers were lower, as the ranges most people quoted wasn't even above the average recorded by PITCHf/x.

Plus, it's only a couple of innings, in the first start of spring training. Sure, it would have been nicer for that pit in my stomach if he threw low 90's like Lincecum. But it's not like he threw in the low to mid 80's either. Average of 89.3 MPH is not that bad, particularly if he was not trying to throw that hard, but rather was throwing to get back his feel and mechanics.

Too soon to worry, but definitely something to monitor still, and keep the fingers crossed.