Your 2014 Giants FanFeast

The Giants had their annual FanFest and Baggerly, Schulman, Pavlovic, and Haft posted good bits of info (I would just link, but some spread it out over a number of posts, so find their links to the right if you don't already have them bookmarked, THE sources to go to for comprehensive Giants info).

Your 2013 Giants: BA Top 10 List and Mayo's Top Giants

Yeah!  Baseball America has just published the Giants Top 10 prospect list for 2013.  That means that they will be revving up their books to send out very soon (I've already pre-ordered it!).  Here is the list:

1. Kyle Crick, RHP
2. Joe Panik, SS
3. Chris Stratton, RHP
4. Gary Brown, CF
5. Mike Kickham, LHP
6. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
7. Heath Hembree, RHP
8. Francisco Peguero, OF
9. Roger Kieschnick, OF
10. Adalberto Mejia, LHP

Also, Jonathan Mayo, the MLB.com's prospect guru, has released his Top 100 prospects in baseball list, and two Giants made it:  Crick at 86 and Brown at 100.

Just enough time to get this out before my lunch hour is over, yeah!

Your 2013 Giants: Five Added to 40-Man Roster

Sorry, but things have been busy, here is the latest news on the Giants 40-man roster additions, as reported by sfgiants.com.  Five players have been added to the 40-man roster, after a lot of space was cleared out within a week of the glorious 2012 season that was the San Francisco Giants second World Championship in three years, including the release of RHP reliever Hensley and the sending of Burriss to AAA.  Even with the addition of these five players, there is still five more open spots in the 40-man roster, indicating that the Giants are hoping to add a number of free agents to the roster during the off-season.

• RHP Jake Dunning:  24 YO Dunning is a reliever, a little old for the EL in 2012 season at 23, but not that old either.  His 4.10 ERA was not that special, but he had a 2.41 K/BB ratio, which is good, and a low 2.9 BB/9, but not really that great for AA if he hopes to make the majors at some point.  He should get promoted to AAA but needs to do more if he wants to make the majors.
• LHP Edwin Escobar:  20 YO Escobar started 22 games and had a nice 2.96 ERA in the Sally League.  He had a stellar 3.81 K/BB ratio, with a superb 2.2 BB/9, but his 8.4 K/9, while good for the league, is not all that special if he wants to make the majors, though it should be noted that most of the hitters had 2 more years of experience over him and thus as he catches up in age to the competition, he should see improvement.  And at 20, he's got a lot of time to develop as he rises through the minors.
• RHP Chris Heston:  24 YO Heston is one of those prospects who will need to prove it at every level he rises to.  And he certainly did in AA, 2.24 ERA in 25 starts, 3.38 K/BB ratio, good 2.4 BB/9 and OK 8.2 K/9, and stellar 0.1 HR/9, as his over 50% GB% rate over his career:  60% in Rookie in 2009, 57% in Augusta in 2010, 58% in San Jose in 2011, and 53% in Richmond in 2012.  The large dip in AA in 2012 suggests that he's started to lose his advantage over the hitters already, so 2013 will be a big test for him when he gets to tackle AAA and see if he can adjust to the higher level of competition.
• MI Nick Noonan:  23 YO Noonan has been my pet favorite for a number of years now.  After his stellar second half in San Jose a few years back, where he showed a lot of batting skills, being able to reduce his strikeout rate a lot while also getting more walks than strikeouts for about half the season, I hew to the Baseball Forecaster truism that once a hitter shows a skill, he owns it, then it becomes a matter of showing that skill again consistently.  He has not done it for a couple of years after that, but he showed marked improvement in 2012, though part of that appears due to a high BABIP that is similar to what he put up when he first turned pro, but not even close compared to his numbers the past three seasons.  
• OF Juan Perez:  26 YO Perez was too old to be a valid prospect in AA in 2012, but he showed some improvement in his batting discipline, cutting down on his strikeouts in 2012 vs. 2011 and before, and his contact rate, while not quite there yet (that is >= 85%) was very close at 82.4%, and I think that is the main reason he got added.  His batting line was a nice .302/.341/.441/.782, but as you can see, he don't get many walks, so he will need to hit and well if he hopes to stick in the majors.  Improving his contact rate a bit more would help him get there, that plus his power to go with good enough speed that helps him steal bases (but his technique is sadly lacking, as his CS is very high).

These players were added in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft process, which will be conducted on December 6th at the Winter Meetings in Nashville, Tennessee.

ogc thoughts

Obviously, with so many spots still open on the 40 man roster, the Giants appear to be hoping to add Scutaro and Pagan, though the latter appears to be slipping away, both because of years and salary, and because the Giants already have Gregor Blanco as a viable CF candidate.  The Giants are clearly intending for Gary Brown to be their future CF, and a long term contract with Pagan could mean that he could be pushed to LF at some point once Brown is ready.   Brown should start 2013 in AAA and could be ready to come up sometime in the 2013-14 seasons time frame.  And at the money he appears to be rumored to be getting, the only way he can produce such value is if he played CF.

Meanwhile, as DrB elaborated nicely on at his blog and which I've touched on in my comments here and there,  Blanco gives the Giants a lot of flexibility in terms of whatever moves they make regarding the outfield for the 2013 season.  Him plus that both Kieschnick and Peguero appear to be ready to compete for either a starting OF spot, or more likely, a utility OF spot, and perhaps two spots if Blanco is starting CF and the Giants sign a LF who can replace Pagan's hitting.  Thus, Pagan is nice to have but not as much of a necessity as re-signing Scutaro.

Though Scutaro is also not as necessary to get either if the Giants can retain Ryan Theriot.  I assume Theriot is hoping to land a starting spot somewhere but if not, the Giants will welcome him back to the bench as MI utility.  But if nobody was offering last off-season, I don't really see anyone doing that this off-season either.  Though even he is not necessary, as Joaquin Arias looks like he is a good utility MI, and Nick Noonan looks like he has been groomed to take on a utility MI role, like Burriss was, by getting a lot of starts in the minors at 2B and SS.

If the 25 man roster were to be selected today, here is the ones I would think would be chosen:

• Starters:  Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong, Zito
• Relievers:  Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez, Kontos, Mijares, and Runzler/Otero
• Starting Position:  Posey, Belt, Arias, Sandoval, Crawford, Kieschnick, Blanco, Pence
• Bench:  Sanchez, Arias, Gillaspie, Pill, Peguero

I think the relievers are pretty set but that some vets will be invited to compete for the final reliever spot with Runzler and Otero who are most likely to contend from the 40 man.  Machi will be in the mix as well, and I think that this is probably Heath Hembree's to lose, though I would not count out Brett Bochy either, as a dark horse candidate.  I would put Jacob Dunnington in the mix as well.

The Giants clearly need upgrades at 2B and LF/CF (since Blanco could play either) and will likely sign a vet to start at both positions.  The bench also needs upgrades over Gillaspie (as we need another utility MI) and Pill.  Peguero, after his nice showing last September, look ready to take a spot as a 4th OF, though another year of seasoning in AAA would not hurt either, so expect veteran OF's to be invited to camp, probably including a $1-3M veteran free agent at some point.

However, I would note from past observations that the Giants like to keep a spot open for prospects who appear like they might be ready to compete for a starting spot, so I expect LF to be kept open, with Blanco either starting in CF or, if a vet CF is signed, be the lead competitor for the LF starting spot, in competition with Kieschnick, Peguero, and probably at least one vet OF (Nady?).

Overall, the Giants look in pretty good shape for a good run at defending their title in 2013.  I'm very happy with where they are right now, though I would have preferred that Scutaro been signed by now, as every day he is not signed, is a sign that other teams are showing him enough interest to lure him away.   I think Arias is doable starting at 2B for us for the first half, with possible upgrade mid-season from Noonan or another mid-season trade for an MI.  I would love to have Theriot here again as main utility MI and starting 2B placeholder until mid-season if necessary.  I am fine with Blanco in CF and leading off, he's had an above average OBP for much of career and that is the most important thing to look for out of leadoff, plus he has great defensive skills and great speed as well.

2011 Giants 40-Man Moves Ahead of Rule 5

Hank Schulman scooped everyone with his report on Villalona, the 40-man changes, and Pablo Sandoval's lasix eye surgery.  Andy Baggarly had an extensive blog on the whole matter.

The News:  Added to the Giants 40-man roster were 1B Angel Villalona, outfielders Tyler Graham and Roger Kieschnick, infielder Charlie Culberson, and pitchers Dan Otero and Hector Correa, whom the Giants got as part of a series of trades that sent now-retired Jack Taschner to the Phillies.

However, the Giants were at 36 at that time, so they had to DFA Waldis Joaquin again and Darren Ford.   If they are not traded in 10 days, any team may pick them up, but the Giants are interested in picking them both back up afterward. Last time they DFAed Joaquin, he was claimed but the White Sox, he refused and became a free agent, upon which he resigned with the Giants.

The surprising news was that Villalona was added.  It was speculated that perhaps this was related to getting Angel's visa reinstated so that he can return to the U.S.  There are other logical reasons I could think of.  One is that this was part of the legal settlement of the $5M lawsuit that Villalona filed against the Giants.  I have to think that a 40-man player is paid a lot more than a minor leaguer.  Another is that perhaps the Giants would just like to move forward on this, and by putting him on the 40-man, there is now a timeclock on when he can be jettisoned from the organization without there being really hard feelings.  For example, if he were not put on the 40-man but was just released after he becomes a 6 year minor leaguer, he could decide that the Giants didn't give him enough of a chance and decide to sue again.  Lastly, I believe that Rule 5 also has drafting of lower level prospects ( never understood that), and since his highest level is single-A, perhaps he could have been grabbed for someone's AA team.

Hopefully, and more likely, is that Villalona is still a viable prospect.  The reports are that his swing is still good, that he has good bat speed.  The original reports noted that he had slimmed down.  I would have liked to have heard more about that, because he was a Big Boi, and slimming is not much when you are that big to begin with.  But he sounds very serious about doing something in baseball, so with all that free time I was hoping that maybe he did something like Sandoval and really slimmed down.  Maybe Sandoval can introduce him to his trainers during spring training and get him on the program.

I saw some worries out there about there being so many 1B now in the Giants system.   I would note that he's always wanted to play 3B, was rated a plus prospect at defense at 3B when he first was signed, and continued to take fielding practice at 3B even while he was playing 1B. He was only playing first because the Giants wanted him to focus more on his offense than his defense. So I think 3B is viable for him going forward, if not already part of his legal settlement.

Among other news, Panda got his eyes Lasiked. He was having problems with his contacts -remember, he hit 2009 without good eye sight - and this procedure would allow him good vision without the equipment, as I recall goggles being involved too. He reported that it went fine, or maybe it was his brother who tweeted that, do not recall. So, in other words, he was hampered by his vision again in 2011 but should be able to see the ball clearly all the time in 2012. It was also noted that his shoulder was healed too, and should not hamper him in 2012 either. Hopefully, look out baseball world!

2010 Giants Non-Roster Invitees: 22 this season

This was blogged on by Henry Schulman last week, been meaning to get to it. Here is the list of names he reported on:

• Denny Bautista (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract))
• Santiago Casilla (RHP; former A's reliever, signed to minor league contract recently)
• Rafael Cova (RHP)
• Steven Edlefsen (RHP; BA rated him as best slider in 2008 annual)
• Eric Hacker (RHP)
• Osiris Matos (RHP; we dropped him from 40-man so apparently nobody claimed him and returned to us)
• Tony Pena Jr. (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract)
• Felix Romero (RHP)
• Dan Turpen (RHP)
• Craig Whitaker (RHP; top pick, been working his way up long time)
• Craig Clark (LHP)
• Clayton Tanner (LHP; local kid, been doing well, rising up, good luck!)
• Steve Holm (C; was dropped from 40-man last season when Whiteside brought up)
• Jonny Monell (C)
• Hector Sanchez (C; one of our better prospects)
• Jackson Williams (C; one of our sandwich draft picks, good/great skills, bad bat so far)
• Ehire Adrianza (SS; reported as major league ready SS skills, needs to develop hitting, still young)
• Brandon Crawford (SS; noted as SS of the future by Giants brass this off-season)
• Nick Noonan (2B/SS; hype has died down but this past season was first year he showed hitting discipline that scouts raved about when drafted, I'm very encouraged by his good improvement late in the season, but he needs to continue showing that)
• Wendell Fairley (CF; has been up and down as a prospect, but it's a good sign that they are bringing him up to spring training this year)
• Roger Kieschnick (RF; had very good first full pro season, still strikes out too much but shows all the skills he was advertised to have, very encouraging first year)
• Thomas Neal (LF, not RF as Schulman noted; breakout season, nice recovery from injury from a couple of years back, could be in majors soon if he continues hitting like that but in AA, remniscent of Pablo's rise)

Giants Thoughts

I totally and vehemently disagree with Henry Schulman's assertion that the Giants need to "develop three or four Pablo Sandovals and stick them on the field at the same time." It would obviously help, and I, of course, wouldn't mind that as that would give us one of the great teams in the history of the majors, but that is not critical to the team's success over the next few seasons. Perhaps this is why fans are so upset over the lineup, because reporters lead them to think that having so many great hitters (and Sandoval is a great hitter) in the lineup is a requirement to be successful every season in making the playoffs.

Heck, we didn't even have three or four Sandovals the year we went to the World Series (Bonds and Kent only, nobody else even broke 800 OPS).

Here is how special Sandoval was in 2009: only 6 hitters in the NL had a OPS as high as Sandoval's .943, only 4 hitters in the AL, for a total of 10 hitters in the majors, out of roughly 400 hitters. There are not that many players like Sandoval in the majors. So, no, we don't need to develop three or four Pablo Sandovals, that would be setting the bar waaay too high.

As I noted in my business plan series (linked to the side), when you have a great pitching staff, the offense does not have to be that good to win 90 games. With our defense (pitching and fielding) last season, we only needed to score 4.30 runs per game to reach 90 wins. That would have placed us comfortably 11th in the NL in 2009 (average runs scored was 4.43), behind the Washington Nationals which was 10th with 4.38 runs scored. With an average offense, we would have won 92 games.

Using Bill James projections plus our projected lineup, the Giants should score over 4.5 runs per game. To win 92 games averaging 4.5 runs scored, our defense would need a runs allowed average of 3.83, just slightly above last year's 3.77.

But James's projections tend to be on the high side, from what I recall. CHONE won for "best" projection for their 2008 projections, if I remember right. Using CHONE's projections, the Giants should score over 4.4 runs per game. If they did that, the Giants defense would have to allow 3.73 runs per game, or slightly better than last year's figure.

And I think that it is safe to assume something similar to last year's. Lincecum should be about the same. Any regression by Cain and/or Zito should be offset by Sanchez pitching well for a season (4.24 ERA overall but 5.54 ERA as starter before no-hitter and 3.46 ERA starting from no-hitter, and even without the no-hitter, he had a 3.83 ERA afterward, plus maturation and confidence and development for 2010, when he'll be 27 YO) and improvements in the #5 starter, whether Bumgarner or whoever, as our other starters (other then the four we have for 2010) had a 4.62 ERA collectively in 2009. Defensively, we take a big hit with Huff at 1B, but DeRosa and Sanchez are pretty good in the OF and 2B, respectively, which should balance things there. Plus Renteria's arm should be better with the surgery and Sandoval should be better with one more season of experience.

But I do agree vociferously with most of the rest of Schulman's post. "The Giants have taken the first step with some good position-playing drafts." I also agree with the Giants front office assertion that Baseball America was ill-informed when it criticized their system before, particularly in 2007 and 2008 when Sandoval was doing well but BA didn't think enough of him to put him in the Giants Top 30 prospects list.

I also whole heartedly agree that "Fans need some patience." Fans have not been patient. This is a long term process, and worrying that this might be the only year we can capitalize on Lincecum et al is fatalistic and shows lack of confidence, which I suppose is only fitting because these fans show no confidence in Sabean despite the great job he has done with the pitching staff. I, for one, am glad the Giants are taking the long view with regards to their strategy and not signing a Holliday (who I think is being overpaid in any case).

As I've been preaching the past few years, the Giants have been re-building and re-builds are never pretty nor cleanly done. It is never done with just home-grown players, there will always be free agents signed to fill in the gaps that the farm system could not fill. It will not be perfect, there will be mistakes, but you have to look at the big picture and see what team is coming out of the process.

What is coming out is a team dominated by a great pitching rotation, supported by a great bullpen, and has a developing offense, with Sandoval now in there (we have at least 5 more seasons of him) and Posey in the wings, plus a lot of good prospects percolating upward or already trying to make a name for themselves (Schierholtz, Bowker, Ishikawa, Burriss, Frandsen).

People are worried that the Giants won't be able to re-sign their young pitchers beyond our arbitration control because of the large contracts already committed (Zito and Rowand) but here I am putting my trust into Neukom's statement that he will get the money should we ever need it for a player. People have been assuming that applies only to free agents but I would have to think that it would apply to our own players as well, and Lincecum and Cain will be the first recipients of that largess, I believe.

Lastly, I would clarify one statement Schulman noted, that developing position players have not been the Giants forte. That's true if you are looking at the total number of position players developed. But that's not the whole story.

The whole story is that the Giants have been focusing their first round picks mainly on pitchers for the most part since Sabean took over as GM, and particularly after Dick Tidrow took over as head of player personnel. Those picks have the greatest likelihood of becoming a major league player, and even then, when you are winning, those picks become a good starting player around 10% of the time, which is pretty low odds. And they just get lower and lower, already around 1% by only the 4th round.

Picks like Posey (5th) and Wheeler (6th) become good players around 45% of the time, but by the 10th pick (Lincecum and Bumgarner) it has fallen to around 20% success rate for finding good starting players, and by the 21-30th picks, the ones that the playoff teams get, it is around 10%, as noted above.

That is a pretty low success rate, so while it is correct to say that developing position players have not been the Giants forte, there is a huge mitigating factor in that they had not been trying to be successful in developing position players, really, until 2008 when they drafted Buster Posey, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, and Brandon Crawford.

And, if Sandoval continues to hit like he did in 2009, what would you rather have: one Pablo Sandoval or a handful of Mark Teahen's, Bobby Crosby's, Dan Johnson's, Mike Jacob's? I would rather get a great player once in a while who you can't pick up easily via free agency, than a bunch of OK starters who you can pick up easily via free agency.

And Sabean has picked up great players over the years. Kent in 1997. Schmidt in 2001. Cain in 2002. Sandoval in 2003. Lincecum in 2006. And it is looking like Bumgarner in 2007 and Posey in 2008. Plus if Sanchez and Wilson continue doing well, I would add them to the list as well.

Oh, and I totally agree with Schulman that "they will be fun to watch."

Giants News: San Jose Topped Out and Lineup Change

Could the San Francisco Giants of 2012 be in San Jose in 2009? As reported in the San Jose Mercury today by the intrepid Andy Baggarly, the Giants top prospects will all be in San Jose to start the 2009 season. Check out this roster studded with top prospects:

• Tim Alderson
• Madison Bumgarner
• Brandon Crawford
• Conor Gillaspie
• Roger Kieschnick
• Nick Noonan
• Buster Posey
• Angel Villalona

In addition, Darren Ford and Thomas Neal would fill out the rest of the lineup.

I was wrong in thinking they would put Alderson, Bumgarner, and Posey in AA to start in 2009. I had heard rumblings that they might hold back Bumgarner and Posey because of the cold in Connecticut, and should have heeded them. Alderson was the biggest surprise because he did so well in San Jose last season (led league in ERA if I remember right), but as Baggarley reported:

They won't be together for long, though. Alderson, who won the ERA title in the California League last year, is returning because Giants officials want to shield their elite prospects from the cold at Double-A Connecticut.

Once the weather warms up in New England, Alderson will be on his way. And others could join him.

Sabean noted that times have changed:

"Years ago it was standard that a kid had to master his level, and most of
the time, spend the whole year at one spot," Giants General Manager Brian Sabean
said. "Now, if you think he's ahead of schedule, it's really incumbent to move
him. With the Yankees, we had Bernie Williams (stalled for years) at Double-A.
That's not going to happen anymore."

Lineup Changes, For Now

It was also noted that Bochy is now thinking Lewis and Sandoval could swap spots with Lewis batting third, where his speed can be utilized, and Sandoval batting fifth.

Giants Thoughts

In the end, it wasn't that surprising that all the top prospects ended up in San Jose. I think it is a sign of the dissatisfaction that the Giants have had with the AA franchise, and particularly their park, Dodd Stadium, which I've written extensively about the problems with that ballpark. I can't recall if it was rumored or true, but the AA team could be sold soon and moved to Richmond, in the South, where the Braves left that city (I wonder if the Giants engineered all that), and where it should be much warmer (BP has the park effects there as neutral).

And this is a dream team of epic proportions for the Giants, we have never had so many top prospects on just one team, plus we have not had so many prospects considered top prospects period, so this could be the best minor league team the Giants have ever gathered together in the past 40 years or so. I will have to make sure I make one of the games before any get shipped out to AA.

I was also surprised that Crawford ended up on San Jose too. Given how far back he was drafted and how disappointing he was in college, I thought he might get put at Augusta in A-ball. But the allure of having all the prospects playing together for at least a month or two was probably too appealing to the Giants. I had thought about that but thought it was a pipe dream because Alderson was ready to move up, and Bumgarner and Posey looked ready.

Too bad Wendell Fairley did not do much better last year, otherwise they might have put him in San Jose too. That would have been really loaded, then, with our top prospects. I think only Henry Sosa and Ehire Adrianza are the only other top prospects that come to mind immediately who are not there (besides Ishikawa and Romo, who both should be in the majors this season).

The lineup switch makes some sense. Lewis would be easier to drive in than Sandoval at that lineup position. However, lineup valuation study showed that getting on base in the 3rd spot of the lineup does not yield as many runs as other top lineup spots. This is probably related to the fact that a large percentage of the time, the third hitter will come up with two outs, nobody on base. That is why I was OK with Sandoval batting third, should he falter in batting average, it won't hurt the offense as much there as batting fifth.

However, right now, he profiles to hit for more power than Lewis (though Lewis reportedly has muscled up for 2009 and is aiming for 20 HR), and that makes 5th ideal then for him too, as that is a position where there is often runners on base for him to drive in.

But most lineup analyses have found that swapping around hitters usually don't amount to much change in the scoring, I've seen some that said the best hitter should hit 2nd in the lineup, I've seen others that best power 4th and best OBP 1st, then there are those that say that swapping the 8th hitter with the pitcher is better as well, and then there were others that said no matter what you do, it won't matter much.

I'm just looking forward to 2009, it will be an exciting season both in the majors, and now, especially so in the minors.

Go Giants!

Baseball Prospectus's Giants Top 11 Prospects

BP nicely provides their Top 11 list on-line here. The list:

1. Madison Bumgarner (Five Star prospect)
2. Buster Posey (Five Star prospect)
3. Angel Villalona (Five Star prospect)
4. Tim Alderson (Four Star prospect)
5. Rafael Rodriguez (Three Star prospect)
6. Conor Gillaspie (Three Star prospect)
7. Nick Noonan (Three Star prospect)
8. Travis Ishikawa (Three Star prospect)
9. Henry Sosa (Three Star prospect)
10. Sergio Romo (Three Star prospect)
11. Roger Kieschnick (Two Star prospect)

Just missed were Ehire Adrianza SS, Wendell Fairley OF, and Joseph Martinez RHP.

Kevin Goldstein notes:

Bumgarner is an obvious number one, but Posey isn't all that far behind him.
Some might flip-flop Villalona and Alderson at three and four, but I can't see
either player ranked lower that those two slots. Where Rodriguez slots in is
really a matter of your evaluation philosophy, but after that, it's anything
goes for the remaining six—Adrianza was the only player close enough to almost
make the list.

Additional comments on other prospects in the comment section:

• Ehire Adrianza: "Absolutely outstanding defensive prospect, but there are tons of questions about his bat."
• Wendell Fairley: "The jury is still out on Fairley. He's toolsy as all get out, but a long way from being a baseball player."
• Scott Barnes: "I'm perfectly fine with somebody calling him a sleeper. It's not a huge surprise that he ripped through some low levels because of his polish, but the stuff is hardly pedestrian. He's solid across the board with an average-to-plus fastball and decent secondary stuff and he knows what he's doing out there. He could exceed expectations."
• Pablo Sandoval: "I really think 1B is his only option, to the point that he might fit a bit better on a AL team. I do think he can hit enough to be an every day first baseman, certainly at least on this team.".

Giants Thoughts

That was my Top 5 but I had Ishikawa 6th while he had Gillaspie 6th and Ishikawa 8th. I basically agree with what he wrote, based on what I've read about the prospects and their career data, as available.

Top 15 Giants Prospects - Baseball Intellect

Baseball Intellect's Alex Eisenberg has filled the void of analyzing prospect mechanics since Carlos Gomez hung up his Bullpen Mechanics and took a scouting job with a major league team and he has done it well. Recently, he published his Giants Top 15 prospects, 1-5 here and 6-15 here.

Giants Top 15 Prospects

1. Madison Bumgarner. Body type is strong, durable, athletic and projectable. His player grade is A- and his fastball was rated 65 now and 70 in future (on scout's 20-80 scale), curveball 45/55, change-up 35/45, Control 50/55, Command 50/60, and Pitchability 45/55. His fastball is electric and he can spot it where he wants. He shows plus-plus velocity at times and he's able to hide the ball well, making it hard for hitters to see it coming out of his hand. "Bottom line... Bumgarner has a chance to be special, especially if he can continue to hone his secondary offerings. Best case outcome - No. 1 starter; More likely outcome - No. 2 starter"
2. Buster Posey. Body type is athletic, especially for a catcher, but also a heavier lower half; he has room to fill out his frame. His player grade is B+ with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 45/55, Speed 40/40, Defense 55/60, Arm 55/55, Instincts 50/60. He "possesses good footwork around the plate and projects to be an at least average defensive catcher with the potential to become plus." "While the power ouput is still in question, Posey should be able to hit 35+ doubles along with around 15-20 homeruns on a regular basis. When you combine this with a solid batting average and the willingness/ability to take a walk, Posey looks like a pretty good offensive player... Posey could move quickly." "Best Case Outcome - Top 5 catcher, potential all-star; More Likely Outcome - Top 12 catcher... he's a very good offensive catcher, but there are still questions for exactly how much power he'll hit for."
3. Tim Alderson. Body type is tall, but coordinated and athletic. His player grade is B+ with his Fastball rated 50/55 (now/future), Curveball 50/60, Change-Up 40/45, Control 50/60, Command 45/55, Pitchability 50/60. "Overall, he's deceptive, hard to pick up, stays closed. This deceptiveness makes his fastball seem much more explosive. ... his stuff isn't overpowering but it plays up because of his command, intellect, and mechanics. Best Case Outcome - No. 2 starter; More Likely Outcome - Strong No. 3 starter."
4. Pablo Sandoval. Not qualified to call a prospect, but include because he's interesting player. Body type is short, but heavy, with little projection. His player grade is B/B+ with his Contact rated 55/55 (now/future), Power 50/50, Discipline 40/45, Speed 40/40, Defense 50/50, Arm 60/60, Instincts 45/50. He really likes Sandoval's swing, leading to a "very nice combination of contact/batting average and power Sandoval's drawbacks is his plate discipline. He's a high contact hitter, but also doesn't walk much and needs to be a little more selective... he does show an ability, however, to adjust to off-speed pitches. ... Best Case Outcome - The potential is there to be a top-5 catcher, but he becomes an average player at first base and a top-12 player at third base. If he were slated to play catcher, I would move his grade to B+; More Likely Outcome - Top-10 catcher, slightly below average first baseman, or average thirdbaseman.
5. Angel Villalona. Body type is big kid, needs to watch his weight, but he's only 17; however, is he that projectable? His player grade is B and his Contact is rated 40/50 (now/future), Power 50/60-65, Discipline 35/45, Speed 40/35, Defense 50/50, Arm 55/55, Instincts 35/45. He was extremely young for his level, so his ordinary numbers aren't too big a deal. Show strong power already but he's still very raw in the aspects of baseball where experience really helps, like his plate discipline, low walks, high strikeouts. His raw power rates as plus to plus-plus, and he shows terrific bat speed, a mechanically sound swing, and the ability to make hard contact. Already physically mature, he is not your typical ultra-talented, projectable athlete displaying his natural ability at a young age; he's already limited to first base. "Best Case Outcome - Middle of the line-up bat; Most Likely Outcome - Average to slightly above average everyday first baseman."
6. Henry Sosa. Body type is lanky, smallish build. Player grade is B/B- with his Fastball rated 55/60 (now/future), Curveball 45/55, Change-Up 35-40/45, Control 40/45, Command 45/55, Pitchability 45/50. Boasts perhaps the second best arm in the entire system, but the biggest question was his control, which he made strides to improve, though another issue is his ability to get deep into games. "Best Case Outcome - No. 3 starter; Most Likely Outcome - Set-up man."
7. Conor Gillaspie. Player grade is B- with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/45-50, Discipline 50/55, Speed 45/45, Defense 40/50, Arm 50/50, Instincts 55/60. Has the potential to hit for a high batting average and already possesses strong plate discipline, but his power is still a question mark and he's below average defensively at third, though that should improve as he gets more experience there given his athleticism and work ethic, as his arm is solid enough. His value would increase if he were moved to second base, and he thinks he can handle the change; however, the Giants have Noonan slotted for 2B. "Best Case Outcome - Average everyday third baseman or above average second baseman; More Likely Outcome - Really good utility player... think about the way Mark DeRosa has been utilized over the course of his career.
8. Nick Noonan. Body type is athletic and projectable. Player grade is B- and his Contact is rated 40/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 35/45, Speed 50/50, Defense 55/55, Arm 45/45, Instincts 50/55. Similar to Gillaspie but more upside in power, younger, and better defense; however, he has very little plate discipline, getting him the lower ranking. Feels he could end up with 15-20 homer power eventually with adjustments. Should be above average defensive player eventually, and could step in at shortstop if necessary. Excellent base runner, with 47 stolen bases in 54 attempts during his career. "Best Case Outcome - Above average everyday second baseman. More Likely Outcome - Average everyday second baseman... his worse case outcome is utility player role"
9. Kevin Pucetas. Body type is big and lacking projection. Player grade is B- and his Fastball is rated 50/50 (now/future), Curveball 45/50, Slider 40/45, Change-Up 55/55, Control 50/55, Command 45/50, Pitchability 55/55. "Pucetas is a four-pitch pitcher and doesn't have spectacular stuff, but it's good enough to eventually get out major leaguers. ... His best pitch is his change-up, which shows good tumbling action and an excellent differentiation between the speed of his fastball... Best Case Outcome - No. 4 starter; More Likely Outcome - Quality middle reliever"
10. Roger Kieschnick. Body type is big, strong, and athletic. Potential 5-tool player, but he's a low contact hitter. "Best Case Outcome - Average right fielder... he's got the tools, but he's a major long shot to hone them all; More Likely Outcome - Fourth outfielder... he's good enough at other things to provide some value to a major league team"
11. Scott Barnes. Most impressive was how dominant he was in his first professional season, despite inconsistent and somewhat stiff mechanics from his draft video. We'll get an idea of whether his performance was for real or just small samples in 2009. Player grade C+
12. Ehire Adrianza. "Here is a sleeper candidate for you...Adrianza is a shortstop with a very strong glove and an athletic, projectable build. The power isn't there yet, but he's shown excellent plate discipline in his young career, displaying both the ability to take a walk and make contact. He has a very short swing, but it's going to make hitting for power, as well as hitting the ball with true authority very difficult. ... He's a long way off, but good defense at shorstop combined with good plate discipline is a solid building block for a player to start from. Grade C
13. Aaron King. "King's mechanics are somewhat unorthodox and there are issues to iron out. ... Problems aside, there is a lot to like: King is young, projectable, athletic, left handed, seems to have an understanding of getting the body going and throwing with intent, and sports a low 90's, sinking fastball with the potential to add more velocity. He's risky, but he's worth taking a shot on. Grade - C
14. Wendell Fairley. "Fairley was mostly a disappointment last season. He showed little pop--just an .076 ISO-power and a .314 BABIP--and he hit the ball on the ground far too often. Fairley does have good tools...he's fast, athletic, has good bat speed,but his tools never really showed up in the actual games. He has to adjust his swing plane/path to have more lift after contact. One positive was he walked quite a bit, so it was somewhat of a mystery as to why he didn't use his speed more. Something to take away from last season: the final month of the season, Fairley walked in 16% of his plate appearances, while striking out in just 12% of his PAs. We'll see if he can carry that success over to next year. Grade - C"
15. Brandown Crawford. This he offered only to subscribers, so I'll include the whole thing. "Crawford looks like an intriguing player. He's a shortstop with some pop and patience. But there are some major red flags. I'm not sure of the exact number, but I don't think the success rate of players with significantly more strikeouts than walks is good, especially when that player has no other plus skill. Crawford struggles to make contact mainly because he struggled to center the ball last year as well as failing to recognize off-speed stuff. He would often get too far out in front. His swing is also a little armsy as he doesn't use his lower as efficiently as he could. Defensively, he lost a little bit of range a year ago, but he has good hands and fields what he gets to. He's not a bad guy to take a chance on because it could be he just had a off year in 2008, but I would say his chance at success is small unless he shows an improved ability to make contact. Grade - C"

I also asked him about Ishikawa, who missed the cut for this because he had too many AB by Alex's standards (100 AB): "I think he's a useful player. Good power, good patience, will strike out, won't hit for a high average...apparently he's good defensively though I haven't seen his defense...I think he's ultimately a platoon guy because he does have a pretty big lefty/righty split (and that is exactly how the Giants used him last year)...his bat isn't good enough to play first base everyday. If I were to rate him, he would be the team's No. 9 prospect and a B- prospect."

Not too bad, gives some hope for the future, though that future looks like a platoon, as most analysis has tagged him as that. But there is some value in that, and perhaps he can be a key trading chip later, or even figure out how to hit LHP.

Youth Marches On; Some to the DL

Various Giants news I wanted to cover:

• Assignments for the off-season have been made:
• Arizonza Fall League: Osiros Matos, Kelvin Pichardo, Kevin Pucetas, Alex Hinshaw, Emmanuel Burriss, Ryan Rohlinger, and Ben Copeland. Most of the top prospects on the cusp of making the majors end up playing here, so the competition is very high level, though there are a number of players who are question marks who the team sends here to see how they do against higher competition. I guess Kevin Frandsen will be playing winter leagues this off-season, to get ABs, while Burriss won't be playing for the Dominican team that drafted him.
• Hawaiian Winter League: Waldis Joaquin, Steven Edlefsen, Buster Posey (!), and Roger Kieschnick. According to the Merc's account, player personnel director Bobby Evans says, "The pitching in Hawaii is essentially on a Double-A level. It's a great opportunity for a couple of guys in the draft who need to get caught up on at-bats." Also a nice treat for Posey, getting to spend time in Hawaii, but he lucked out in that the Giants were allowed to bring on a C and OF to the team, so they were able to chose him. If the assignment was SS, I suppose Brandon Crawford would have gotten the call instead. Baggarly speculates that "his performance here could influence whether he is assigned to Class A San Jose or Double-A next season." Notice he didn't say Connecticut, there are rumors the Giants might switch teams for next season (good riddance!). Wanted to note the reference to AA level, that was odd, because I could have sworn it was more A level because when Schierholtz was sent there a couple of years back, I had the impression he was facing lower talent. If it is AA, then this would be a good test of Posey, though given how well he has done in the California League playoffs with San Jose, I think it would be an upset if he doesn't start the year in AA; still Weiters did this route last season and he did very well there, so that will be a nice comparison point for us with Posey, Kieschnick too. Nice to see Waldis Joaquin get the call, he's a high potential pitcher derailed by Tommy John Surgery who appears to be regaining his stuff, so this is a good sign that he is back in the Giants eyes and getting more IP to make up the loss of experience when he sat out last season.
• Velez drove in Sandoval for the winning run in yesterday's game. If you have Tivoed the news last night, re-watch Pablo Sandoval score the winning run. First, he was amazingly agile in running the bases given his husky body type. But more importantly, look at the way he scores the winning run, he astutely dives to the far side to touch the plate, just scoring a split second before the catcher reaches to tag him out at the plate. There was literally no margin for error there, he did it perfectly, like an Olympic gymnast, only he's built like a fire hydrant.
• Zito strikes out 9 in 6 IP, striking out the side twice, including his last IP. Since he started his nice streak with his start on June 25, Zito has gone 7-5 with a 4.52 ERA, 7.5 H/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, .223/.319/.361/.680, BABIP roughly .250, the only bad stat (and it's pretty bad) is his 4.6 BB/9, but that is how he has survived all these years anyhow with a higher BB/9, he was able to keep his BABIP lower than the mean that everyone is suppose to regress to. Still, he will need to reduce that down to the mid-3's to return to old-Barry goodness
• The more significant number among those is his 7.0 K/9. When Zito was able to win during his early to mid-career years, he was able to keep his K/9 higher. He last reached this rate in 2004, when he had a 6.9 K/9 for the season. He had much higher K/9 his first two seasons, so he's not back to that Barry, but he is about the rate for his 2002-2005 period, when he compiled an ERA of 3.58 in the AL (equivalent to a 3.30-3.40 ERA in the NL, as the NL has a lower ERA due to lack of DH and getting to pitch to lousy hitting pitchers instead).
• Zito won't lose 20, Giants won't lose 100. With his no-decision, Barry officially cannot lose 20 games, something a Giants pitcher hasn't done since the great Rube Marquard lost 22 in 1914 (he won 24, 26, and 23 games the three seasons before, 201 in total). With the four game win streak, particularly their first game win over the D-backs, the Giants are now 64-80 and the worse they can do is lose 98 games, so they will not "achieve" the loss total that many Giants fans had them pegged for. My prediction, I believe, was that they would be closer to 80 wins than 62 wins (i.e. 100 losses), so they will need to win 8 games out of the last 18 (or go 8-10) in order to reach that. I think it could go either way, but if they give Lincecum an extra start (probably last minute change of his last start to move it up a day so that he gets his normal days rest between starts, enabling him to start against the D-gers on the last day) depending on whether he has a chance to win 20 games or not)
• Burriss to "DL", Lewis Soon to Join: Emmanuel Burriss, right after being annointed the starting SS for your 2009 Giants, hurt the accursed oblique muscle and will miss the rest of the season, but since it's September, they don't need to put him officially on the DL. However, as noted above, he'll be going to the AFL as he should be healed by then. Fred Lewis is finally going under the knive for his painful bunion (can you imagine how well he might have done if he wasn't bothered by it?) on Friday and will miss the rest of the season. According to Baggarly's account, he should be healed in time for spring training, though sometimes it could take as long as 6 months.

Also wanted to note some baseball news:

• Derek Jeter passed Babe Ruth on Yankees all-time hits list. He just got his 2,519th hit, moving past the Babe for second place. Lou Gehrig is first with 2,721, which means that despite the long gloried history that is the Yankees, they have never had a player who reached 3,000 hits with them, not Ruth (started career with Red Sox), Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Mantle, Berra, nor Mattingly. Jeter is only 35 for next season, and will need roughly 2.5-3 seasons to reach 3,000, so while it is not a slam dunk that he will reach it, the Yankees will probably stretch it out enough so that he can and then they can celebrate that and his career at the same time.
• But will he reach 3000? The ominous thing is that his OPS+ this season is 103, the worse since he was 23 in 1997 when he had a 103 season. Since then he has been able to keep it above 110, ranging from 110 to 153, mostly between 121-132 for the 10 seasons in-between. In fact, he has declined from 132 in 2006 to 121 in 2007 to 103 in 2008. The end could be nigh for Jeter, he can definitely be able to play another two seasons but the third is questionable given this trend and the drop back to OPS+ levels not seen since his early days.
• D-backs Falling Back. As a Giants fan, I'm torn. The D-gers just passed the D-backs like they were standing for first place and now lead by 2.5 games (maybe more after the Giants swept them), after the D-backs had led all season long. If the D-backs lose the pennant again, that could really get into their psyche and since they are mostly young guys, they could be haunted by this for the rest of their careers. However, if the D-backs don't win, then that would mean the D-gers would win, and I fundamentally have a problem with them winning anything, particularly since it could be Jeff Kent's last hurrah season. However, if the D-backs take back the lead and the pennant, that could give them a boost that would last for the career as well. Meanwhile, the 'DoRocks lurks in third place, much like last season, though they are only 4-6 in their last 10 games and 7 games back, close enough to dream but not realistically doable with only 17 games left for them. If they were to win AGAIN their confidence will become ginormous and with their young core, they could become formidable as well in the coming years. The 'Dres are too far back to even hope that they would pass up the Giants, let alone the leaders; heck, they are mathematically out anyhow. So, sadly, I find myself drawn to, not rooting for the D-gers to win, but for the D-gers, D-backs and 'DoRocks to lose (particularly since the Giants are facing the D-backs again in a week) and let the spit land where they land. I'm just hoping, whoever wins the division by default, loses big in the first round, and, particularly if the D-gers are in the playoffs, Jeff Kent has a nice big fat goose-egg as a send-off on his career, which, by the way, I don't think is Hall of Fame worthy, despite what other people say.

And the Beat Goes On: Giants Sign Posey, Kieschnick, Crawford

This news direct from Andy Baggarly from his Extra Baggs blog (thanks to Allfrank for heads-up!):

* Posey gets in the neighborhood of $7.5M (very nice neighborhood! :^), which when I think of it, is more where it should have been, not the $5-6M that I thought he would get, because slots were up 20% this year over last, and 20% added to $6M is $7.2M which is close to that reported amount. In addition, it is a major league contract, which means he's on our 40 man roster starting next season and starts burning options, but given his achievements, if he doesn't make the majors within 2-3 seasons, that would be a huge disappointment.

* Kieschnick got $525,000 or $40K over slot

* Crawford got $375,000 or $92K over slot. He was not exactly confirmed, as the news is from the UCLA office who said that he told them that he's not coming back to school, and why and for how much.

* Extra news, Giants also sign 13th round pick, Juan Carlos Perez, who broke the Division II junior college record with 37 home runs. He fell because of visa issues, according to Baggarly, and thus the Giants signed him to a 2009 contract in order to allow him time to work that all out. He is an outfielder.

We are set at catcher now with Posey, both defensively and, hopefully, offensively, Gillaspie looks like he could cover 3B or maybe 2B, we'll see if Kieschnick is a corner OF and if Crawford can hit enough to be SS, as his defense, from reports I've seen, has been excellent though inconsistent.

I hope these signings stop the Naysayers mistaken assertions that the Giants are cheap and wouldn't go over slot. As I had documented from previous drafts, the Giants have been generous before, and for more recent examples, they gave Lincecum $200K over slot, and I think about the same for Bumgarner too.

Of course, giving Posey over $7M is way over slot even if he were the first pick, but given his achievements this year both in hitting and winning awards, can be justified, and especially since they need him that much as well. Leverage is good and Posey had it. At least it is much closer to the $6M Weiters got than the $12M that Posey was rumored to be asking for.

BA Pre-Season

I didn't report on this before, but Baseball America, in their annual prospect book, listed the top college and high school players at the time of publication. Posey "only" ranked 17th among college players; his play during the season obviously boosted his stock. Crawford was actually ranked HIGHER than Posey, he was 10th. And Gillaspie and Kieschnick were ranked near Posey, they were 21st and 22nd, respectively.

Rundown on Signees

Looking back, I didn't include Jonathan Mayo's excellent profile comments when they were originally picked, so I'll run them down here with some comments:

• Posey: Posey has advanced hitting skills, good knowledge of strike zone. Thinks his power is gap-to-gap, and can develop into 10-15 HR annually. Despite his SS pedigree, he doesn't run much better than other catchers and is still a slightly below-average runner. His fielding is behind other catchers but he already as quick footwork and should improve the more he catches. His strength is that he's a highly sought-after package, a catcher who'll be able to stay behind the plate and can hit, but that's his weakness, his inexperience as as catcher, only converting from SS to C two seasons ago; experience will teach him the nuances of the position. Summary: College catchers who can stay at the position and can hit are always a hot commodity and Posey will be no exception. He's got a great approach with the bat and has a little power. As a converted shortstop, he's still a little raw behind the plate, but all the tools are there for him to be just fine and help ensure he gets drafted fairly early.


• Gillaspie: Gillaspie is a left-handed hitting third baseman in a Bill Mueller-type mold. Hitting is his best tool, very good hitter, knows what he's doing at the plate. However, with not much power, he's basically a hitting machine. He's also got below average speed but excellent base runner, so he'll steal some bases. He'll make an adequate 3B, but his lack of power keeps him from having a true profile position. Summary: After a strong Cape season, Gillaspie has followed up with an excellent junior campaign. He's a terrific hitter and has been over .400 for most of the year. His lack of power makes it hard to profile him anywhere other than as a Bill Mueller-type third baseman. There are worse things to be, of course, and a team that values what Gillaspie can do will surely take him.


• Kieschnick: He is a big, athletic left-handed hitter (throws right) who reminds some of Mark Teahen. The big things for him is that he has excellent raw power, mostly to the pull side, and he's a 5 tool type of player, though hitting is his biggest question mark. He has above-average speed, and being aggressive, could steal 10-15 bags a year. He has the potential to be an above-average RF, he has a plus arm and gets good breaks and angles on balls, plus is very aggressive in the OF. Strengths are his raw power, good speed, aggressiveness in all facets of the game, and his weaknesses are his hitting mechanics, which leads some to wonder if he'll hit enough in the pros. Summary: Kieschnick is a potential five-tool corner outfielder who could hit for power and steal a few bases. He plays a fearless outfield, getting to plenty of balls and showing off a good arm at times. The one knock is an issue with his mechanics at the plate that concerns some about his hitting ability at the next level. Still, an aggressive college outfielder -- in a weak class of outfielders -- who has those tools should get plenty of interest.


• Crawford: There is what was and what is now. In the past, Crawfod has shown an ability to drive the ball, but he has struggled thus far in 2008. He has raw pull power and a solid average runner, though confident enough to steal bases. Defensively, his hands have always been good, though he's not making the spectacular plays as regularly as he has in the past, as he seems to have lost a step and isn't getting to as many balls as he once did. When he's going well, he's an all-round shortstop who can hit, hit for power, steal a base and make the plays, but his confidence is shot this year and it's reflecting in almost all facets of his game. Summary: After his first two seasons at UCLA, Crawford seemed poised to be one of the top collegiate middle infielders in the class. But a rough Cape season appears to have carried over and he's lost some confidence in his game, both at the plate and in the field. Some added thickness to his lower half has taken away a little of his quickness, though he's still a solid shortstop. If he can right himself, he's the kind of player who usually sees himself go off the board within the first couple of rounds.

Also, here is some info on Juan Carlos Perez that I dug up:

• Perez: The reigning NJCAA Div. II National Player of the Year, the Dominican had one of the greatest offensive displays in junior college baseball history (and as Baggarly noted, Albert Pujols was a Dominican who play junior college baseball) playing for Western Oklahoma State. He rewrote the NJCAA Div. II record books by blasting 37 homeruns, shattering the previous mark of 23 and also the national record for RBI's also belongs to Perez as his 102 total now stands as the benchmark. He also hit .465 and stole 29 bases. An article noted his excellent speed and a strong arm. He was also teammates with the infamous Danny Almonte, and he played against Almonte in youth leagues in the Bronx and when they were in high school. He appears to be 21 years old, being three years out of high school (based on info in this article) and before this college season, he had spent two years playing in local men's leagues after finishing high school plus spent a winter with Almonte at Play Baseball Academy in Miami, Florida. At the academy, he became a student of the game, learning the finer points of defense and base running. He says he is also diligent in working out each morning to stay in shape. What I like is that he planned to pursue a degree in engineering in case things didn't work out in baseball, you got to have plans if you want to get ahead in life.

Overall

All in all, it looks like the Giants made a great pick with Posey, particularly since we have a need at both C and SS, positions he can play and be plus offensively - there has been no talk about moving him away from C, and it is not like Sandoval is a great defensive catcher, but I mention that only because we have no real good SS prospect and Posey can play both positions. Now he just has to deliver.

And with two players who were legitimate #1 pick overall material - Lincecum and Posey - in three drafts, that's pretty good picking (and lucky picking, it takes a community of teams to not select them and leave them for us to pick, but still you have to be smart enough to select them yourself and not follow the crowd).

Gillaspie is a question mark in that while he can most probably hit in the majors, where he will fit is the question. Offensively, he looks more like a 2B but he appears to be adequate enough defensively to play 3B and that is a position of need for us, though Rohlinger is developing. Still, he's a good pick that should pay off in the future.

Kieschnick and Crawford are both very raw but both had talent and tools enough to warrant pre-season selection as players who could go in the first round, Crawford especially, while Kieschnick probably would have been somewhere in the first half of the supplemental first round picks though could have gone somewhere late in the first round.

As I've noted before, my study on the draft shows that the amount of talent typically available in the back of the first round is not that clear cut, though the potential is there, and thus many of them fail to become good players, but still, the odds are much better for those types of players than it is for even 3rd and 4th round drafted players (except for those who fall down due to signability issues), almost exponentially so (about 10% vs. 1-2%). The upshot of all this is that unless you are getting Top 5 draft picks, finding good players via the draft is more a volume shotgun jell-o on the wall type of venture, the more you have the better. And the higher the talent level of players you are getting, the better off your system is.

Thus Kieschnick and Crawford are good additions to the farm system because they are considered better talents who had off-years that dropped them back a bit in the draft. Kind of like how we got Brian Wilson, his abilities would have warranted a higher pick, but he had the unfortunate timing of getting TJS the year of the draft. Of course, not the same situation as while TJS is pretty common today, not every player return to prior goodness and velocity, but my point is that it can be worthwhile to add players with questions marks (like EME and Marcus Sanders with their health) when they have a good set of talents that normally would get them drafted much higher. Again, it's the shotgun-jell-O-traveling salesman approach: it's scattershot but if you do it systematically, then it works out overall.

Pitching, Pitching, and Pitching

And, again, that's why I like the Giants emphasis on pitching in the draft. If you are not sure what you are going to get out of the draft, you can't really plan much things out. But by focusing more on pitching, that builds a core competancy and talent level in pitching in your organization until you have a complete - and superior - pitching rotation, and then you have the luxury of pushing good pitchers who don't have an open spot in the rotation, into the bullpen and build that up as well. Plus there are always pitchers who flame out as starters but can excel in the bullpen.

That's why we could leave Brian Wilson in as closer. Up to last season, the Giants were not sure whether they wanted him to start or relieve, though they kept him in relief because of his TJS history (I presume). If we didn't have Cain, then Lincecum, and now Sanchez, the Giants management probably would have felt the urgency to think about moving him into the rotation. Now they can safely leave him in there for the long-term, much like how Boston finally went with Papalbon as closer, when he was a starter before and wanted to start.

This way, the cream rises to the top until we have too much cream and our cup will overflow. And while trading is harder today, it seems, there is always a need for pitching, whether more or better, and if we have a cupboard full enough, we will be able to trade off pitchers to get the position player we need without hurting our chances of winning.

Meanwhile, you still pick up some position players along the way - you still need to field a team in the minors - and hopefully some of them are the lottery ticket that gets you a nice position player - not good but nice - as while no team requires a lineup full of great hitters, at minimum they need to be good enough to complement the good players you do have.

Which leaves free agency, both MLB (Rowand) and internationally (Villalona and Rodriguez), and trades as avenues to get the good players you need for your lineup as you rebuild.

I think the Giants have a good setup. Success is not assured but I like the way the organization is shaping up. Pitching is pretty set and even if the bullpen is unsettled, Bumgarner and Alderson should be able to shore it up starting in 2010. In the lineup, we have Rowand as a plus and Lewis as an average (but good) player. By 2010, Posey should be good at catcher. Villalona hopefully will be super at 1B, but that's not a give yet. However, Sandoval looks like he'll be OK at 1B, with Ishikawa as backup there, or even catching next season if Ishikawa can continue whacking the ball like he has. Schierholtz looks like he could be good in RF. I still think Frandsen is the guy at 2B and he could be average (but good) there as well. That leaves SS and 3B. Not too shabby, overall

More on Giants Draft

Just ran across this site I had forgotten about - Perfect Game Crosschecker - that had posted information about our draft picks:

• Buster Posey (R.1; 5th overall):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Originally recruited to Florida State as a pitcher, Posey spent his freshman year with the Seminoles as a shortstop only to move behind the plate as a sophomore. He added closer responsibilities to his repertoire this spring as a junior. His ability to adapt easily to such diverse positions speaks volumes about his athletic ability, makeup and feel for the game, though he still is working on some of the finer points of catching. Scouts said Posey was easily the best in the Cape Cod League last summer at catching, blocking and throwing, and the one catcher with above-average arm strength. He has on-line carry on his throws and unloads the ball quickly. His throws are a consistent 1.85 to 1.87 to second base. The most significant area he needed to improve from last summer was his footwork and he largely accomplished that in the fall at Florida State. He also became more accomplished receiving balls better down in the zone. Though he has limited raw power, Posey has a contact-oriented approach and hits to all fields with wood. He made significant strides at the plate in the second half of the Cape Cod League season as he used his hands more efficiently while eliminating his shoulders from his swing. He batted .281-3-19 last summer after hitting .382-3-65 with 21 doubles in the spring at Florida State.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/1): Posey enjoyed a breakout season, ranking among NCAA Division I leaders in many hitting categories while batting .469-16-66 with 43 walks and only 17 strikeouts (through May 15). He has also continued to polish his defensive skills behind the plate. There has been plenty of discussion about the home-state Tampa Bay Rays selecting Posey with the first pick in the draft. If you want a solid comparison for Posey, think of North Carolina’s B.J. Surhoff, a catcher/shortstop who was the first pick in the 1985 draft.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Conor Gillaspie (R.1s):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Gillaspie had a solid sophomore season at Wichita State, hitting .325-6-53, but nothing to suggest he would have the breakout summer like he had in the Cape Cod League, where he topped the league in batting (.345), slugging (.673) and extra-base hits (21) on his way to earning league MVP honors. He showed a serious ability to square up balls, gave away few at-bats and took what pitchers gave him, pulling inside pitches and going the other way with pitches on the outer half of the plate. He drove numerous balls to the gaps with developing power. Almost overnight, he moved near the head of the class among the top college hitters in the 2008 class. He was steady defensively at third with good hands and arm strength, but scouts question his range, especially going to his left. Gillaspie has a tireless work ethic and unusually high expectations for himself. He is always taking extra hitting and looking for ways to improve his game, but he can be unusually hard on himself when he falters.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Gillaspie furthered his reputation as one of the top hitters in college baseball this spring, hitting .421-10-77 and throwing in eight triples, 16 steals and 36 walks for added measure. He was at his best as the season wore on and hit two home runs and drove in five in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game. Scouts question how much over-the-fence power Gillaspie projects, but there seems to be no question that he has the bat speed and hitting skills to hit line drives at all levels. Gillaspie did struggle defensively at third base, making 16 errors and fielding less than .900. Scouts said that no one area was at fault, that he was inconsistent both throwing and catching the ball.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Roger Kieschnick (R.3):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Kieschnick has the makings of becoming a five-tool talent, but hasn’t put everything together yet. He spent two summers with Team USA and his most obvious improvement from 2006 to 2007 came at the plate. The raw power he routinely displayed in batting practice in his first season manifested into in-game power last summer, enabling him to improve his home run total from one to a team-leading seven. He also improved his total at Texas Tech from nine as a freshman to 13 as a sophomore. He showed more pull power and stayed inside balls well, enabling him to drive pitches from right-center to left-center, but his swing is still a little stiff and he remains prone to striking out. He lacks looseness and rhythm at the plate, but he makes hard contact and the ball jumps off his bat. His speed, arm strength and defensive skills are all average to plus tools, though he still needs work on getting better angles on balls in the outfield. Kieschnick has the intangibles to succeed as well. He’s a mature, level-headed player who plays the game aggressively. He should continue to grow into his game.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Kieschnick’s 2008 season was a duplicate of his sophomore campaign as he hit with power, commanded the strike zone well, ran the bases well and played an excellent right field. He still didn’t show the ability to hit for average (.305-17-65, 35 walks) as much as scouts expected, given his tools. College outfielders with a strong, athletic tool package are rare in this draft and that should guarantee Kieschnick a slot in the top two rounds.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Brandon Crawford (R.4):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Crawford had a poor 2007 summer season in the Cape Cod League for Orleans, hitting just .189-4-14 with 45 strikeouts while committing 13 errors—high among league shortstops. He showed flashes of his considerable ability, particularly with his speed, range and above-average arm strength, but his raw lefthanded power and overall hitting ability didn’t translate well from BP into game situations. All could be forgotten by this spring, however, if he plays to his potential—or even returns to his sophomore form at UCLA, when he batted .335-7-55. With the possible exception of his bat, Crawford has legitimate five-tool ability and could be the first college shortstop drafted in 2008. He is normally a sound defender with excellent hands and footwork. He needs to be more consistent in the field, however, as he is capable of making the spectacular play but often botches the routine ones. His arm is both strong and accurate, and is a significant weapon but he tends to rely on it too much. He is prone to sitting back on balls hit to him and letting his arm do most of the work. He needs to be more aggressive coming in on balls and getting rid of them quicker. Crawford has good poise for his age, but just needs to figure it out with the bat.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Crawford continued to tease scouts with his first-round tools, but didn’t perform like a first-rounder most of the 2008 season. He hit a modest .288-5-39 for an underachieving UCLA team and struck out at a high rate (54 times in 198 at-bats). His bat remains his biggest question mark. He swings and misses too often, particularly when he chases off-speed pitches. He has poor pitch recognition and is prone to being too pull-conscious. His greatest strength continues to be his defense. He’s a sure-handed shortstop with range and arm strength. He has playable speed.—AS
• Edwin Quirate (R.5): SCOUTING REPORT: Quirarte hasn’t received the exposure that a number of other college closers have in this year’s draft, but he has quietly improved his stock to where he may be picked as early as the fifth round. He was used as a starter in his first two seasons with the Matadors, with unimpressive results, but found his niche in a role where his competitive nature worked best and he could unleash his fastball in short bursts. It was clocked at a steady 90-93 mph and enabled him to post a 3-3, 1.86 record with eight saves. He continued to use his slider and split-finger as secondary pitches, but his command of those pitches is just average.—ALLAN SIMPSON
• Eric Surkamp (R.6):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Surkamp worked in tandem with his former Moeller High pitching mate Andrew Brackman at the front of the N.C. State rotation last season before Brackman, who was drafted in the first round by the New York Yankees, was sidelined with a sore arm that led to Tommy John surgery. Surkamp struggled to win games when Brackman went down and ended up with a 4-5, 3.47 record with 84 strikeouts and 27 walks in 96 innings. Despite his big, strong frame—and, in stark contrast to Brackman, who topped out at 99 mph—Surkamp does not throw particularly hard and his stuff is considered marginal by pro standards. His fastball is just in the 86-89 mph range though will touch 90, but he has an advanced feel for pitching and can keep hitters off balance with a three-pitch mix. He rarely throws consecutive pitches at the same speed or to the same location. He went 2-0, 1.85 with 26 strikeouts in 24 innings for Orleans of the Cape Cod League last summer, before being added to Team USA’s roster for the latter part of its international schedule. If Surkamp can somehow increase the velocity on his fastball even 2-3 mph, it would help his stock considerably in the draft, but most scouts believe he is what he is and project he’ll be a 5th-10th round pick in 2008. He has a good changeup and an average breaking ball but needs to spot those pitches, along with his fastball, consistently to be effective.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Surkamp was pretty much what he was a year ago—a big lefthander with a good feel for pitching but ordinary stuff. He went 5-2, 4.39 with 82 strikeouts in 70 innings as one of N.C. State’s two primary starters. He pitched better late in the season, raising hopes he’ll be drafted closer to the fifth round than the 10th.—AS
• Aaron King (R.7):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Pitt CC sophomore third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall has garnered most of the attention from scouts this spring among top prospects in the North Carolina junior college ranks, but King has also garnered his share of intrigue. Though he wasn’t unknown to scouts as a high school senior at North Carolina’s Fred T. Foard High, where he pitched on the same staff as Clemson-recruit Trent Rothlin, Ford’s fastball was mostly 88-89 mph and he didn’t have a breaking ball. His command was below average. He’s obviously made enormous strides over the last year. The big lefthander has a live arm with a fastball in the 90-93 mph range. A downhill plane provides good life on the pitch low in the zone, with sink at the knees and arm-side tailing action. His secondary pitches—a long, sweeping slurve at 70-74 mph that lacks crispness and an adequate 81-84 mph changeup—also rely on location to be effective. King is very aggressive and holds nothing back on each pitch. But he is more thrower than pitcher at this stage of his development. His size and arm strength, though, are significant attributes that will keep scouts coming back.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): King was everything he promised to be this spring with a fastball up to 94 mph, though it was more commonly in the 90-92 range. Physically, he fits the profile of the big, powerful, loose lefthander. He still has a way to go in streamlining his delivery, but he has made significant strides in adding movement to his fastball and developing a curveball that now grades as average. He has a changeup, but rarely uses it. The command of all his pitches is significantly better. King was dominant as a junior college freshman, posting a 5-4, 1.91 record with 98 strikeouts in 66 innings. He walked 34, but was touched up for only 38 hits. He has the whole package for a team that might willing to take a run at him in the first couple of rounds, but most clubs don’t feel comfortable enough taking a junior college pitcher with a limited history that early.—AS
• Scott Barnes (R.8):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Barnes has made a lot of strides in his evolution as a pitcher since he was offered $200,000 to sign out of a Massachusetts high school in 2005. He went 7-2, 2.93 with 99 strikeouts in 95 innings as a sophomore at St. John’s. He sought to continue his development during the summer in the Cape Cod League but left in the middle of his second start with tendonitis and was shut down for the season. Tall and lanky with a loose, quick, power arm, Barnes’ fastball explodes at 90-93 mph with slight tailing action to the first base side. He also has a slurve-like breaking ball but still needs to refine his circle changeup. He maintains a good arm slot and speed on the pitch, but it lacks fade or sinking action. Barnes’ three-quarters delivery also needs cleaning up as he throws with a slinger-like arm action. He has a focused, confident, high-energy approach to pitching with good pitchability and projects as a starter in pro ball—providing his changeup continues to develop.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Barnes’ velocity was up and down most of this spring, ranging from 87-91 mph, but he started throwing his fastball by hitters more consistently later in the year when it reached 92-93 mph. His command of the pitch was better, too, and he mixed in a near-average slider and a fair change, which he didn’t throw very often. As the leader of St. John’s deep pitching staff, he went 7-3, 3.69 with 45 walks and a team-high 90 strikeouts in 90 innings. Long-time area scouts compared his frame, stuff and approach to pitching to former St. John’s lefthander and ex-big leaguer C.J. Nitkowski, the ninth overall pick in the 1994 draft. While there were questions early in the season whether Barnes justified his status as the state’s top prospect, he solidified himself late in the season as a solid second- or third rounder—possibly even a sandwich pick of his home-state Boston Red Sox, if that club makes drafting a player with local ties a priority.—AS
• Ryan Verdugo (R.9):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Verdugo was one of the key recruits LSU’s second-year coaching staff pinned its hopes on to jumpstart the once-mighty Tigers program, which has been a Southeastern Conference also-ran the last two years. The Skagit Valley (Wash.) JC transfer was installed as the No. 2 starter in the rotation this spring after impressing in the fall with a fastball in the 88-91 mph range, topping at 92. His changeup and 12-to-6 curveball were also effective pitches. Verdugo, a fourth-year junior, has traveled a varied path since being drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies out of a Washington high school in 2004. He attended Oregon’s Division III George Fox College as a freshman but almost immediately blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery. Shortly thereafter, he transferred to Skagit Valley and spent the 2006 season there exclusively as a DH. He was finally healthy enough to resume pitching in 2007 and impressed Northwest scouts with his strong, athletic body, quick left arm and compact arm action from an abbreviated windup. He has difficulty throwing all his pitches consistently for strikes as he struggles with his delivery, but he is still able to compete with fringe stuff and command. Verdugo might have gone much sooner in the 2007 draft than the 47th round but his high price tag and near-binding commitment to LSU scared teams off.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Verdugo thrived this spring in his first chance at Division I baseball and helped carry the resurgent LSU team with him, going 8-2, 3.61 with 75 K’s in 82 innings. He throws a variety of different fastballs between the low 80s and low 90’s, some with cut, some with sink and some straight and hard. He is very effective pitching off his fastball. His other offerings, a curveball and a changeup, are solid but not out-pitches. Verdugo is very young for a fourth-year junior, having just turned 21, so it won’t be a given for him to go out this year as it might be for many players in that situation.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Ryan O'Sullivan (R.10): SCOUTING REPORT: O’Sullivan and his brother Sean, now a highly-successful pitcher in the Los Angeles Angels organization, are the first brother combination ever to be named Aflac All-Americans (Sean was a 2004 selection). The younger O’Sullivan, much like his brother before him, has been a fixture in SoCal baseball circles since he was the MVP of the San Diego Stars’ national AAU championship team as a 9-year-old. O’Sullivan has always excelled as a two-way player at shortstop and on the mound, although (like his multi-talented brother) his upper-level baseball future is likely on the mound. Despite his part-time status on the hill, O’Sullivan throws 89-91 mph with hard, heavy sinking action on his fastball. His breaking ball is a 77-mph slurve that can be tightened into a slider. O’Sullivan is a polished pitcher and a ground-ball machine, and should continue to improve when he gets on the mound full-time. If he goes the college route, O’Sullivan could excel as one of the country’s top two-way players, just as he has done his entire baseball career thus far.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Justin Fitzgerald (R.11): SCOUTING REPORT: Fitzgerald went just 1-4, 4.96 with three saves as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2007, but made a huge statement on the opening weekend of the 2008 season when he came out firing a fastball that topped out at 94-95 mph. Almost overnight, he became a legitimate prospect. Fitzgerald continued to flash velocity in the 91-93 mph range with late life the rest of the season, and mixed in a solid 79-81 mph slider. He also tinkered with a curve and changeup. The upshot was a dominating season as the closer for UC Davis. He went 3-1, 2.90 with 13 saves. In 31 innings, he walked five and struck out 34. Fitzgerald, who took a medical red-shirt in 2006, looks the part in a uniform at a strapping 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds.—ALLAN SIMPSON
• Ari Ronick (R.12): SCOUTING REPORT: Ronick was drafted by the Reds a year ago, despite going 2-4, 3.05 with 22 strikeouts in 41 innings, missing several starts with a sore arm and subsequently undergoing surgery to address a stress fracture in his elbow. His first outing this season was his first in 10 months. He had no ill effects from his surgery at all in 2008 and showed scouts a short, quick, smooth arm action with a good feel for pitching. His fastball was consistently in the 87-91 mph range—solid for a tall, athletic lefthander. He has three other pitches—a slider with short, late tilt, a big-breaking three-quarters curve and a circle change—that are generally effective. His changeup is his best pitch. Ronick pitches to contact and went 4-7, 5.03 with 17 walks and 46 strikeouts in 63 innings this season—representative of the way he pitched as a four-year starter at Portland. Northwest scouts see him as a solid senior lefty with decent stuff.—ALLAN SIMPSON

Pre-Draft Top 50

In addition, they had a pre-draft Top 50 listing as well that they published on May 12th:

• Buster Posey (#1; pick #5 overall): It's been the Spring of Dreams for the Seminoles catcher, as he's been arguably college baseball's top hitter, furthered his defensive abilities behind the plate and put himself in position to be the No. 1 overall pick.
• Roger Kieschnick (#46; pick #82 overall): Kieschnick is a four-tool outfielder with his pro level power, speed, throwing and defense; the question will be how his hitting ability develops.
• Brandon Crawford (#48; pick #117 overall): Crawford's slow start and contact issues have taken him out of the first round, but his athleticism, defensive skills and potential will still get him drafted high.

Oddly enough, Conor Gillaspie was not ranked among the top 50.

Giant Thoughts

Lots of speculation over whether we can sign a number of our draftees. Below are my comments.

Gerald "Buster" Posey

Obviously, #1 is Buster Posey (the Giants loves these B-nickname players, like Boof :^). He is definitely signing, because he has nothing to prove nor improve by staying in college another year, he could only hurt his draft status with an injury or sub-par season. Thus the main question is when he will sign, soon or at the deadline like most did last year.

It is a distinct possibility that Posey could sit out until then, but I have to assume the Giants realize that time is the essence for Posey, the sooner he’s in the system, the sooner he’s moving up the system, particularly if they hope for him to have any chance of taking over in 2010, though they might do it anyway, as it wouldn’t be the first time that a player with a major league glove but developing bat gets thrown out there to start.

From his end, he’s better off signing this year, as it should cut a year off his development time to reach the majors, and make up some of the money that way. And the sooner he makes the majors and make all the teams who passed him up pay for not selecting him.

Thus far, there have been a number of signings already in the first round, so things seem to be moving faster. That's probably because last year was the first one where the August 15th deadline was put in place plus the recommended slot bonus was reduced 10%. This year, it's the second year of the system plus the slots have been raised by 20% over last year, which was a reversal of last year's 10% decrease plus a 10% increase. So I'm hopeful that Buster will sign sooner than later, he seemed pretty jazzed about getting selected by the Giants. In addition, I came across a rather heart-warming story about him and given that humble background, I doubt that he'll be going for every dollar he can get but rather probably has a figure he thinks is fair that he will want.

So that brings the question: what is fair? It would be what the top talent got from last year's draft. Weiters did get $6M when the slot was $2.25M for the #5 pick and Price got $5.6M last year as the #1 pick ($3.6M slot). In addition, Porcello got $3.58M, which is almost what the #2 pick got, Moustakas got $4M (and was slotted for $3.15M).

So I think that $4-5M is about what a top pick could expect to get in the draft without Boras as your agent, and if I were Posey’s agent I think that arguing for $5-6M would be where I would start and be happy with $3-4M and a major league contract when the deal is done. And Sabean said in a post-draft interview that the Giants would be open to a major league contract, which would fast track Posey.

About the rumored demand for $12M, I think the $12M was a red herring they threw out to get Tampa Bay not to draft Posey, and probably Pittsburgh too. Most also knew that Alvarez would be the Pirates pick if available and most knew that it was down to T.Beckam and Posey for TB, so the dominos would fall T.Beckham and Alvarez with the $12M request, then probably Hosmer to KC as per all the rumors, and the Orioles would be unlikely to draft Posey because of Weiters, leaving the Giants or at worse the Marlins to select Posey, both teams needing catchers desperately, but SF willing and able to pay for a top pick.

I doubt the Giants tipped off their hand in terms of selecting Posey, but I can see Posey’s agent letting the Giants know what they were looking for if the Giants selected him, in order to influence them to draft him with their pick.

Out of the top teams picking, if I were Posey, I would want the Giants or Marlins to select me. They both need a future catcher and fast, as both teams are nearly rebuilt and nearly ready to compete, meaning that Posey could rise quickly. Orioles has Wieters in the way and the Royals and Pirates have a history of incompetence in the way and no track record that things will necesarily get better, though the Royals are nicely stacked right now. The Rays are improving, have a great set of young players, but again, no track record of success.

As much as people like to ride on Sabean, he does have a history of success behind him, as do the Marlins. In addition, Sabean values defense and versatility, which Posey have in spades, and therefore we might pay more for Posey than another team. Also, Posey, not expected to be a huge HR hitter, would not be affected much by playing at AT&T, so he’s not scared away by our park’s image as a pitcher’s park (which has not held up in recent years but the media still hasn’t learned yet so others probably haven’t either) that kills HR power.

Conor Gillaspie

According to one account of the draft, Conor Gillaspie was clearly disgusted when he fell out of the first round. So the thinking goes that he won't sign because he will want to go higher in the draft. Let's say he does do that and get selected at the end of round 1 next year.

Last year’s end of first round got roughly $100-200K more than what the 37th pick of 2007 draft. So if he signs quickly and rise fast, he would make that money up quickly, particularly since the Giants only have Castillo penciled in for 2009-2010 right now, and Rohlinger is the only prospect ahead of him right now.

In addition, the best revenge is making the majors ASAP and starting and hitting well. :^)

I was more impressed with Gillaspie after reading this description, not that previous ones were lacking, but rather this one makes his accomplishments more significant for me. I like the fact that he has a tireless work ethic, those are the kind of players who continually improve themselves. I also didn't know about his ability to steal or take a walk. He was a good pick before, but I really like him after this one, he looks like a good #2 hitter. The only problem was his defensive problems at 3B but I haven't see anything that says that he'll have to change positions at some point in the future..

Roger Krieschnick

What's not to love about a player who has 4-5 tools? Unfortunately, the one tool missing is hitting, so he's probably going to strike out a lot but he has loads of power. I don't expect any problem signing, he should be slotted to get around $500,000, based on what his overall pick number got last year plus the increase in slot money, so unless he thinks he can improve a lot next season, it would be hard for him to turn that type of bonus down. Again, as noted for others, signing now means he start in the majors a year sooner probably, so any delay of that timetable will cost him more than his improvement in bonus unless he can get himself into the first round, either regular or supplemental.

Brandon Crawford

He could be the steal of the draft for us, even more than Posey, Gillaspie or Krieschnick. Though a fourth round draft pick, the commentary above has him having first round tools and 5 tool-ability as well. He also looks like he can stick at SS, and that is an area where our farm system could use more talent. Defense is his most developed tool so far; his hitting is probably the least. But, the comment above states that he was good enough to be thought the first SS drafted, so that is pretty good to get here back in the fourth round.

He's probably the most likely of the top picks to not sign and go back for next year's draft. He fell far from where he could have been, and given the question marks on him, making the majors is not a sure thing for him; whereas the others above him clearly will probably make the majors, the main question is will they stick. Since the majors is not a given for him, signing would not necessarily mean that he will make more money sooner by signing with the Giants.

However, I still think he signs. He's from the Bay Area, so he'll be nearby during his journey up the farm system, allowing family and friends to watch him play. His bonus is still substantial, $300,000 range, and if he has another subpar year, he's going to fall enough further back in the draft. Take the money and see if he can resusistate his career in the minors, if he's looking for money, the majors will bring him more than what the bonus he would get in the first round plus he would get to play in front of his family and friends at AT&T, instead of, say, Pittsburgh or KC.

Edwin Quirate

Signed already! Some wonder if we paid too much.

Last year, early 5th rounders got about $150K and the 147th pick last year was slotted with $162,000. According to the reports, the slots were raised this season about 7% for the 2nd to 5th rounds, which would put the 147th pick slot bonus to $173K approximately. Plus there is the reversal of the decrease of last year, so that makes the slot approximately $190K.

$193K is roughly equal to my estimated slot, so he was not paid too much.

Early Signings

And he is not the only one to sign already, there are a lot of players signed already. My guess would be that they realized that fighting over slot or slightly above slot is not worth the lost time of evaluation and acclimation and education that occurs when the player signs early and starts playing in short-season A-ball or rookie league.

In addition, I think that signings are quicker this season because the slot was increased to where it should have been relative to 2006, plus they now have one draft under their belt regarding the new August 15 deadline, there was a lot of stalling last season probably because of the new system. Plus, I’ll bet a lot of players realized that they lost all that time fighting over not a lot of money. For example, Fairley fought to the end and got $10K over slot. If that delays his getting to the majors by one week, there goes his $10K extra, plus more for every week after that.

Other Giants Picks

The other picks are all diamonds in the rough, with something good as a reason to draft him, and something bad that led to him falling that far back. However, Ryan O'Sullivan looks like he fell because of signability concerns, as he looks like he has a pretty clean history, he has accomplished a lot of things as he rose from Little League to high school.

He's from the San Diego area, so hopefully he's pals with Nick Noonan and decides to sign with us. I assume we will be going over slot if we do sign him, but you never know, as his brother is already in the Angel's farm system, so he could be aching to become a pro.

Descriptions of Giants Top 3 Draft Picks

There is a new analyst of pitching mechanics on The Hardball Times, in the wake of Carlos Gomez getting a job with a major league team, and he publishes on the website Baseball-Intellect.com. However, he did not cover Posey yet, so I was disappointed.

However, he has linked to another website, Brewersfan.net, where the author of that site published information on the Giants top 3 draft picks. I don't know how good the site is or what their reputation is (though I just found two quotes from BP and BA saying they are a "indispensable" and "unbelievable" website), but what I read there isn't much different from other descriptions, but I like reading a broad range of sources so here is their descriptions of each pick:

• Buster Posey: He was ranked 4th among eligibles, after Alvarez, Matusz, and T.Beckham, and was drafted 5th by the Giants, and was the top ranked catcher. His comments: "A very good and versatile overall athlete, Posey arrived at Florida State's campus as a two-way talent expected to play shortstop everyday while also pitching out of the bullpen due to his natural arm strength and refined approach to pitching which included one of the better changeups in the prep class of 2005. His lateral quickness and arm strength prompted a move to behind the plate for Posey, a transition he started during FSU's fall practices during his sophomore year. He took to the switch quickly and is already considered a good defender with the ability to neutralize the opponents running game with his strong arm. He still needs to improve in some of the finer aspects, but most don't think that will be a problem given how far he has come in such a short amount of time. His bat is made for contact, with quick hands that allows him to lace line drives from gap to gap. There isn't much over the fence power at this point in time, and he probably will never hit for more than 10-15 homers a year, but he could easily hit for 40-plus doubles while managing the strike zone. His overall athleticism gives him good speed for a catcher, as he profiles in a similar fashion to other catcher conversions such as Michael Barrett, Brandon Inge and even Craig Biggio."
• Conor Gillaspie: He was ranked the 28th best prospect and was selected by the Giants with the 37th pick, and was the 4th best 3B in the draft, just after Anthony Hewitt (23rd) and Ethan Martin (24th) and of course behind Pedro Alvarez who was #1. His comments: "Gillaspie has always been a solid, hard-nosed player with the ability to hit for contact and gap power. His game exploded last summer on the Cape, leading the league in batting and slugging on his way to being named the circuit’s most valuable player. With a level, left-handed swing and a patient eye at the plate, Gillaspie is able to hit for a high average while walking nearly twice as much as he strikes out. Most of his power is to the gaps, but he get hit one out on occasion with double-digit home run potential. Overall he is a solid athlete, but doesn’t stand out in any one area. His defense has been somewhat shaky, but most seem to believe that he will become solid average and he could rise quickly through the minors."
• Roger Kieschnick: He was ranked the 66th best prospect and was selected by the Giants with the 82nd pick, and was the 2nd best RF in the draft, behind Dennis Raben (43rd), plus was the 9th best OF in the draft. His comments: "Kieschnick profiles very similar to former big-leaguer Jeromy Burnitz, with a power/power profile suited for right field. Like Burnitz, Kieschnick's swing is long and he strikes out in bunches. But when he connects the ball travels a very long distance, as he punishes mistakes and needs to be pitched carefully too. Overall he needs to control the strike zone better by walking more in addition to striking out less. He is an impact run producer though, and was among the league leaders nationally in doubles with 25. Defensively he has enough speed and range to handle centerfield in a pinch, but as noted above he fits right field perfectly with a strong and accurate throwing arm. Teams always draft power early, as Kieshnick's adjustments at the plate will determine which of the top three rounds he's drafted in."