Your 2024 Giants: Ohtani to LAD, Giants Potential Next Moves

I read the news today, oh boy, about a lucky lad who made the grade:  The Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to the biggest MLB contract ever, 10 years at $700M.  Saw some comments that some of it is deferred, but for payroll tax penalties, the only thing that matters is AAV, and that's $70M AAV.

Your 2023 Giants: Ohtani, the White Whale

As with any superstar free agent, Ohtani is likely to not sign with the Giants. But I don't think it would be out of the realm either. Here are some of my thoughts on what it would take to sign him.

Also, as many of my posts goes, this went long: it is also a discussion of the positives that I see with the Giants roster and future. While the past couple of years have been disappointing, the Giants appear to me to be on the cusp of breaking out and being a serious contender for the intermediate term, if they can acquire at least one key component (a good cleanup hitter) and ideally two (another ace starter).

Lastly, I started this post thinking I needed to finish by the end of the World Series, as that was when I expected the Giants to announce their next manager. Because Bob Melvin was named manager, I finished it up and published it now, adding a note where I left the content unchanged and noting the hiring.

Your 2022 Giants: Top Defensive Teams Can Win with sub-par offense, and cheaper

Seeing complaints about the Giants offense and how they should have went out and signed a big bat hitter. 

And while I wanted them to sign Seiya Suzuki, especially at the contract that the Cubs signed him to, for whatever reasons (per Baggarly, there were other non-baseball factors), I at least can understand why he chose to do what he did. So I decided to revisit the scenario of going with strong defense: strong pitching paired with strong fielding, and show the magic of having great pitching and fielding.

Your 2014 Giants: Vogelsong Signs for one year, $5M plus incentives

According to reports (for example, Schulman), Vogelsong will be signing for $5M plus incentives that could bring him above $6.5M.  That's on top of the $300K he got in the buyout of the team option (which was for $6.5M) in his prior contract.  It's been noted that the Giants saves $1.2M from the prior team option that they could have exercised instead of the buyout.

Giants Latest to Pick up Rosario: Last?

As reported a few days ago by the Chronicle and SFGiants.com, the Giants picked up Sandy Rosario via waivers, after a successive of waiver claims - plus a trade in the middle by the A's and subsequent loss back to Boston, but not before shipping Graham Godfrey over the Red Sox for nothing - left Rosario with five team changes in this off-season alone.  He has not done much in the majors, in fact, stunk, but had great minor league stats.  Will the Giants be his final team of this off-season?

ogc thoughts

I think so, at least for much of spring training, as I have to think that he is out of options and must either make the team or be put throught waivers again.  I view this as another one of the Giants reclamation projects akin to their pickup of Santiago Casilla, not that he'll necessarily be as good (and who knows, he could be better, look at his minor league record).  A hard thrower who has had a ton of control problems in recent years in the majors, showing a major case of jitters perhaps, as he has had a very good career of controlling his walks in the minors.  But not only that, but he couldn't strike out many in the majors either.  Still, very limited usage in the majors, so who knows what he might do if given some time to calm down and pitch.

He had a bit of a breakout season in 2012 in AAA, 1.04 ERA in 25 appearances with 16 saves, 26.0 IP with only 20 hits and 2 walks, striking out 24 for a 0.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, and 12.0 K/BB ratio, showing the excellent control he has had most of his career, in fact, a career high by almost double in K/BB ratio.  That is Romo territory at the major league level.

Nice pickup, overall.  He's a strikeout machine in the minors, exhibit a lot of control, really, most of his career, his major problem has been giving up too many hits, in spite of all the strikeouts.  He would be really good if he can do three things with the Giants:  one, avoid the hits, the BABIP on him has been incredible in the minors, but that could just be very very bad BABIP luck because as a reliever, he doesn't get a lot of IP, two, bring his strikeout ability to the majors, where it has been sorely missing, and three, control the walks, and he does have those last two on his minor league resume, he just needs to bring that consistently to the majors.  And the Giants have had a pretty good record in the Sabean era with pickups, except for the dark years of rebuilding and losing.

But he will be 27 YO for the next season, so he does not have much more time to figure things out.  Hopefully the Giants pitching doctors, particularly Dick Tidrow, will find the cure for what ails Sandy.

He takes a spot on the 40 man roster, leaving the Giants at 38.

In addition, the Giants added Cole Gillespie, signing him to a minor league contract, which is just going to confuse me even more as we still have Conor Gillaspie in our farm system.  I have occasionally caught myself confusing the two of them for each other when reading about prospects.  :^)

Conor is most probably gone by opening day as I believe he is finally out of options and will have to be put through waivers once the Giants decide that he is not going to make the 25 man roster.  He has mainly played 3B, so he will need to show some versatility in spring that he can play other positions, else he's probably better off with an American League team that can DH him regularly.

I can see Minnesota being into him, they took Buscher off our hands a while back and gave him a lot of playing time despite hitting that was not that good at 3B (wasn't really good even for SS), though I don't know what their 3B situation is right now.  But like I noted, DH is probably a good spot for him.

On Your Mark: 2011 Free Agent Season

With the World Series over, after a inspiring Cards win, showing you should never give up (or an agonizing Rangers loss, coming within a strike, twice, of winning it all), free agency has officially begun in earnest.  The Giants started things out by signing Javier Lopez to a two year, $8.5M contract and picking up Jeremy Affeldt's $5M option (nice DrB discussion and commenting here, including moi).

The Chronicle's John Shea wrote an article on "SF Giants Need to Sign Carlos Beltran".  While I love getting offense, I don't see that the Giants NEED to sign Beltran.  What they need to do this off-season is get Lincecum and Cain signed to long-term deals, buying out their free agent years.  Next level of priority is signing Posey and Sandoval to long-term deals.  And it would be nice to sign Madison Bumgarner to a long-term contract as well.

But if Giants ownership do open up their pursestrings and sign Beltran (which would be ironic since apparently that is part of the reason why Neukom was forced out, his eagerness to spend the windfall money that came out of the World Championship), I would have to think that the Giants become the presumptive team to beat for the 2012 season, assuming that Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez return to the lineup doing what we think they can do for us.

But even if we do not, with our great pitching, returning such good hitters to our lineup will do wonders for our offense, particularly paired up with a slugging Sandoval.  We can win with that.  Any nice hitting by Aubrey Huff would then be the whip cream on top (hate those cheeries...).  We can still win with our offense as is as long as our pitcher is as good as it has been, though, like 2011, it would not be a sure thing (but few things are in life).

Of course, we still need a CF and SS.  I think Brandon Crawford is ready enough for us to go with him as the starter at SS.  His defense, while not UZR friendly (he was only 8.2 UZR/150; most fans think he's at least worth 2 wins or 20 UZR/150), is still pretty good, and batting 8th, he doesn't have to hit for much to be valuable to the Giants in the lineup.  His nice run in September, and now in AFL, suggests that he can get a good streak going sometimes; now he has to do it over a full season.  Because of the tight payroll, and particularly if the Giants do sign Beltran, I think it is a no-brainer to start Crawford at SS, first, because he should be good enough to start, and almost just as important, he's majorly cheap to pay.  Wouldn't mind getting Rollins, but not at the 5 years he wants or the big money he wants (more than Renteria got from us).

For CF, while not ideal, I think either Coco Crisp or David DeJesus would be OK for us atop our lineup.  Crisp is the more classic leadoff hitter except that he can't get on base, DeJesus has a great OBP but not enough speed to steal bases with, though enough to play CF in prior seasons.  1 season, 2 tops, no more than
$5M per, particularly Crisp who is injured so often.

Ideally, if Beltran could still play CF, that would be best for us, at least in 2012.  Unfortunately, his defense was pretty bad there the last two seasons he played there.  However, he was even worse in RF in 2011, so given his great offensive performance is worth even more in CF while he provides "better" (relative to RF) defense in CF, maybe he can play CF for us, with Nate Schierholtz perhaps helping him in the RF alley.

Then we would not need to sign a CF free agent, let Andres Torres and Brandon Belt fight it out for LF.  Whoever wins can be the leadoff hitter, as Belt actually ran well in the minors and typically gets on base a lot too.  His power would be a little wasted there, but that is where we need him in 2012 should he win LF.  Also, I would probably put Belt in AAA should Torres win, better to give him regular starts than sit on the bench, at least in early 2012.

Sabean also hinted at an upgrade at backup C for 2012, with the thought that Posey probably will not be able to play a full season at catcher due to his recovery, so he might sign a vet there.  I lobbied for Jose Molina previously because he's an excellent defensive catcher who knows how to handle pitchers really well (Fielding Bible II metric had him best during study period) but he's not much of a hitter.  Not sure who else is available, not really something to worry about either, though I would lobby for Stewart to keep the backup job, his batting discipline is actually pretty good, he could be one of those late developing catchers who figures out how to hit in his 30's (I think he was 29 last season).

I was also hoping that the Giants could somehow fit Mark DeRosa on the bench and sign him.  He can play so many positions (and well defensively) and he should finally be healthy in 2012.  He hit well for us at the end too.  But he wants to be back near home so if anyone on the east coast and particularly south offers him a job, he will probably take it.

Even if we don't get him, we probably only have two spots open for MI on the bench (backup catcher, probably Brett Pill, and backup OF, Torres if Belt wins).  The Giants probably have to have a reliable vet as backup SS, so Mike Fontenot probably got one position, unless the Giants can pick off a better SS for cheap in January.  That leaves only one spot and we have two players who we will lose if they don't win a spot, Emmanuel Burriss and Conor Gillaspie.  I think Burris has the best chance of winning that spot, since Gillaspie can't really play defense at any position (he's probably going to get traded to an AL team or released) and Burriss can play SS and can play 2B really well.  But if we lose both it won't be a huge loss either, if the Giants can pick up a nice backup SS free agent who got left without a spot on another team.

Now Catching (Up With) Buster Posey

Been meaning to point out this milestone in Posey's recovery, courtesy of Henry Schulman of the Chronicle:  

Good news from Scottsdale, Ariz., if you’re a fan of the Giants and Buster Posey.

Dave Groeschner, the Giants’ head athletic trainer, just told me that Posey has begun catching live bullpen sessions for pitchers in the instructional league. Groeschner watched Buster catch his second one this morning. The session lasted about 8 minutes.

This is a huge benchmark in Posey’s recovery from devastating injuries to his left leg that occurred in a May 25 home plate collision with Florida’s Scott Cousins, which required two surgeries thus far and ended his 2011 season. With that, the Giants’ hopes for a repeat World Series championship went down the tubes, too.

Though the Giants initially set Nov. 1 as a target date for Posey to catch live bullpen sessions, they hoped he might start a bit earlier, and Groeschner said Posey is about a week ahead of schedule.

“He’s been feeling good and progressing well, so there was no reason to wait,” Groeschner said.

We won’t know if Posey is truly recovered until spring training in February,  when he does all the regular activities with the team and plays in a game, but the fact he’s ahead of schedule raises hopes that he will be ready to hit the ground running when pitchers and catchers report.

This is pretty huge, though as noted, in a long recovery like this, and we won't really know until Spring Training.  But as the saying goes, a journey of 1,000 miles begins with one step.  Keep on, stepping on, Buster!

Then this latest update came along from Schulman again, which reminded me I should put up this post:

Those who saw Posey all summer in a cast, then a boot, tooling around the clubhouse on a wheeled contraption that allowed him to walk on his good leg, would be pleasantly stunned to see him look like abaseball player again, four months before he expects to catch the first pitch of the first Cactus League game not far from this park.

For the last six weeks, Posey has been rehabilitating and strengthening his leg in Scottsdale. He is taking batting practice. He has caught bullpen sessions from instructional-league pitchers. He is running 100-foot sprints, at 90 to 100 percent of full speed, he surmises, with no noticeable discomfort.

Nothing the front office accomplishes this winter will overshadow Posey's labors in Arizona. He was the catcher and cleanup hitter for San Francisco's first World Series championship team, among the strongest links in the chain of players. Nobody can deny the Giants will need a healthy, productive Posey to return to the playoffs in 2012.

He is encouraged by his progress.

"It was a pretty traumatic injury," he said as he rested between his outdoor work (batting practice and running) and an hour in the weight room. "To be five months out, I'm pretty happy where I am.

"When I was in San Francisco thinking about what I'd be doing at this time, I was thinking I'd just start to be running, or start to be hitting off a coach throwing. I've been doing that for four or five weeks now."

On Saturday, Posey will reach an important waypoint in his journey back. He will end his daily workouts in Arizona and go home to Georgia, where, in his mind, he no longer will be rehab guy. Rather, he will be another player preparing for the 2012 season just like any of his teammates.

Giants head trainer Dave Groeschner provided the reality check.

"He'll be in rehab until he plays a major-league game," Groeschner said. "Nov. 5 is the day he'll go home so he can have a little offseason and take a little mental break. He still knows he's got to work on his lower leg and ankle all the way to spring training."

Moreover, Posey and the team will have to remain vigilant because one sprained ankle breeds susceptibility to another. Posey will spend more time in the treatment room, before and after games, than he would prefer. He still has pain at times. Team trainers have warned him it will be a persistent companion.

Posey plans to hire a physical therapist in Georgia to stretch him out before his workouts and has a friend in that line of work, a back therapist. ...

... Perhaps Posey simply understands how much work remains before he can resume his life as a major-league catcher and cleanup hitter.

He can hit 1,000 home runs off Tom Trebelhorn, a 63-year-old coach, on an empty diamond in Scottsdale. Facing Ian Kennedy of the Arizona Diamondbacks on Opening Day 2012, 10 days after his 25th birthday, will be an entirely different story.

Groeschner said Posey's thrice-weekly batting practice has less to do with technique than sending him to Georgia confident that he will be able to hit come spring training, when the real preparations begin.

"The good thing is, you ask him how he is, and he's more frustrated at the way he's swinging his bat than the ankle," Groeschner said. "This is October. We're not worried about his swing much, just that he can do it and he feels good."

Posey confessed he is anxious about playing again, more about running than hitting or catching. When he closes his eyes, he visualizes himself in the squat behind the plate, or standing in the box against a pitcher throwing 95 mph.

So there has been continued progress and no setbacks from the last reported good news (as noted up top), again, another positive step forward in his long journey to resuming his major league career.

I also ran into some interviews that Johnny Bench has given about Posey, and I thought I would capture them together here.  Basically, Bench is a long-time Buster fan, and he thinks that Posey has the stuff to be one of those generational Hall of Fame catchers.  See this interview with Johnny Bench at The XLog.  In it, he notes how few catchers are in the Hall of Fame, only 13, basically one per decade.  Meaning to him that there is about one per generation.  He noted that Buster Posey (as well as Matt Weiters and two Reds prospects) could be that catcher for this generation.

Here are some of Bench's thoughts about how good Buster is, interviewed after the Giants won the World Series last season:

“The thing’s that so impressive, everybody saw in every interview, it was a class act,” Bench said. “He handled himself well. It was like a Tuesday game somewhere else, and he just got four hits. It was about being on the level with the game. He knows as a catcher knows, it’s one game. Then you’ve got to start all over.”

Posey knows Bench, having won the Johnny Bench Award as the best college catcher in 2008.
In their conversation, according to Bench, Posey said, “I asked my mom, ‘Should we call you and talk to you?’ I said, ‘Of course you should.’ “

Bench said Posey has what it takes to be a great catcher.

“He was a shortstop that became a catcher (at Florida State), so every game is still a learning experience for him,” Bench said. “He wasn’t beaten down or anything else. He’s a kid who loves the game. You can tell from his coach and family what a great person he is. And then to move up (to the majors) that quickly is really rare. You’ve got to say he’s a rare example of any phenom that stands up and does the job . He throws well. Calls the game. He’s got it all. And he runs well . . . for a catcher.”

Bench was impressed how Posey, at such a young age, handled pitchers. In this case, perhaps the best staff in the majors.

“There are three types of pitchers you have to deal with,” Bench said. “Some you just have to tell what town they’re in, remind them where they are. Some you remind them about mechanics, and some you have to bust their tail. You have to make them your friend and have them trust you.”

According to the Hall of Famer, the kid pulled it off.

Giants Thoughts

After going through this season, I have come to the conclusion that the Giants rode the back of Buster Posey to win the World Series last season.  He was the leader who got the team moving towards that goal, as evidenced by this quotes before and after winning, "Why not us?" "Let's do it again".   So that leads me to a couple of conclusions.

First, the 2012 Giants with Posey leading the way will be that much more competitive than the 2011 version, no matter who we end up signing as free agents.  I think we can win with the group we have, though I would love any offensive upgrades the team can make via free agency or trades.  And Buster would lead the way for us.

Second, the Giants should be looking into signing Buster to one of those mega-long contracts, like what Evan Longoria from the Rays or that Colorado doled out to their position stars.   As much as we need the pitching to continue to get the opportunities to win it all, I think we need Posey's leadership to push us over the top and achieve that.  I love his "Can Do" attitude and that he wasn't bowed by any high expectations nor questioning that they can't achieve the seemingly impossible.

This and signing Lincecum and Cain to long-term contracts are the key things I want to see from the Giants this off-season.  Sandoval too would be nice.

FYI, I've been spending a lot of my off-season time checking out DrB's blog for interesting discussions, check it out for my thoughts on some of the things happening to the Giants this off-season, like his recent post on the signing of Lopez then picking up Affeldt's option.  (Not too surprising, glad they did it; also, I would love it if the Giants go for it on Grady Sizemore for a one year deal)  Unfortunately, I don't usually remember to re-post my thoughts here, as I usually comment all across the internet on the Giants, though I might recap some of it at some point when the mood strikes me.

DeRosa Press Conference

Andy Baggarly has a report on the conference call announcing the signing of DeRosa:

• No set position or place in the lineup yet for DeRosa. He don't mind as long as he's in the lineup everyday.
• Sandoval is still floating as well, either 1B or 3B, depending on where the Giants can add another bat.
• Still looking for another hitter. Will focus on 5th starter and catcher later. In previous talks, already said he would be happy starting the season with Bumgarner as the last starting pitcher and Posey the starting catcher, though he would prefer to start Posey in the minors.
• Giants have an offer to Uribe still. Could win the starting position at 3B.
• The Giants are LaRoche were miles apart during the winter meetings; unlikely to do anything.
• Holliday's contract demands price him above where the Giants are willing to go.
• Adrian Beltre appears to not be on the Giants pursuit list.
• Giants trainers were "pleasantly suprised at the condition of [DeRosa's] wrist when he had his physical. Expects to be 100% by spring training.
• Other teams viewed him as a contingency plan in case they didn't land a better one, and he didn't like being Plan B. Plus, he wanted to be able to choose where he goes versus being forced to go somewhere.
• Bochy likes DeRosa batting 5th. I think that's a good spot too, because his OBP is relatively high for the team, plus his SLG is generally high because of his HR power.
• He likes playing infield as that is where he came up as, but he's willing to do whatever the team wants, whatever is best for the team. He is fine with giving Bochy a lot of options, he realizes that is what got him to this point in his career.

From the Mouths of Mediots, Case Number 680

Just earlier today, like a moth to a flame, I turn to listen to sports talk on the radio. Literally the first thing I heard is this:

"It's not Larry [Baer]'s fault the Giants don't have a thirdbaseman or a firstbaseman who can hit 40 HR."

Teams without a thirdbaseman or a firstbaseman who can hit 40 HR:

• Atlanta Braves
• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox
• Chicago Cubs
• Cleveland Indians
• Colorado Rockies
• Detroit Tigers
• Florida Marlins
• Houston Astros
• Kansas City Royals
• Los Angeles Angels
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Minnesota Twins
• New York Mets
• Oakland Athletics
• Pittsburgh Pirates
• San Francisco Giants
• Seattle Mariners
• Texas Rangers
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Washington Nationals

So that means that 23 out the 30 teams in the majors are falling down on the job in putting together their offense because they don't have a thirdbaseman or a firstbaseman who can hit 40 HR. At least according to this radio show host.

May Have to Eat His Words Soon

The funny thing is that since Pablo Sandoval started figuring out how to hit homers in the majors in June, he has hit 18 HR in 360 AB and 84 games. That is a 35 HR pace. Pretty close to the ideal noted on the airwaves.

However, he hasn't hit any in 30 AB this month as he has battled leg problems, and his batting line shows that at .233/.361/.333/.694 (WOW, he has 6 walks and only 4 strikeouts!). Assuming he can be healthy over a full year and play at the pace he was at in June, July, and August, then over a 162 game season, Kung Fu Panda would hit 40 or 41 HR in a season.

So the Giants may already have a 40 HR 1B/3B in Pablo Sandoval and therefore, based on what this host said, Sabean has done his job there.

Sigh... why do I keep on turning the radio there? Well, besides the fact that it's always on KNBR during the baseball season and I have to cycle through there to change from FM1 to FM2 on my presets on my car.

Why does the evening host have to cater to the angry Giants fan crowd? Despite all the anger over the past few seasons, the Giants have been rebuilding very nicely. So wouldn't that mean that they were wrong to be so angry? That they were being impatient with the rebuild (and rebuilds normally take many years to pull off correctly and some teams are stuck in rebuild purgatory for decades) and was missing the changing of the guard?

I mean, given this vitriol aimed at Sabean, had the Braves fans been just as angry and actually had Bobby Cox fired as GM, he would never have had the chance to build the 17 year dynasty he had there, because the team was so lousy during the six years he was their GM. They were even worse than the Giants, much worse, Tampa Bay Devil Rays bad.

And no GM is perfect. They make a lot of mistakes along the way, some of them big (don't you think Billy Beane wishes he got more for Tim Hudson? Or how about Andre Ethier?). You have to take a look at the big picture and see where the team is headed.

And the big picture is that the Giants are headed for a nice run in the next few years. Obviously, our pitching should be great again. Particularly if we can sign Penny to a one year deal and pick up another good end-game reliever like Affeldt. Though Waldis Joaquin and Dan Runzler might fill that need.

Ande the offense should be improved as well. Sandoval should be a full-fledged star by next season, as I noted above, he should be hitting somewhere between 30-40 HR if he can continue the pace he was going at after he figured out how to hit major league pitching for homers and when he was healthy. I think Buster Posey should be either up at the start or my mid-season, and should be figuring out things by the end of the season. That's two offensive cogs right there.

Rowand, for all the complaints about him and for all the ups and downs of his hitting, he is still hitting better than the average CF. And Nate Schierholtz has shown enough in his time in the minors and in brief stretches in the majors that I think he'll be able to duplicate what Randy Winn was giving us: average offense with superlative defense in RF. You don't need every hitter to be great, you need complementary bats like Winn when he was going good, Rowand, and Schierholtz, as I believe he should be as good as Winn eventually.

Freddy Sanchez should be a big improvement over what we got from 2B this season: our 2B collectively hit .241/.292/.350/.641 this season. His career numbers are .299/.335/.419/.754, and he was good enough to win the batting title one season and has hit around .300 every season except for one while playing regularly.

Renteria has hit well enough since he said he was feeling better - .264/.331/.397/.728 with 3 HR in 121 AB - that I think that he will be fine next season assuming that he is healthy for a full season. Still, as badly as he has done, his .255/.313/.335/.648 is still a huge improvement over the .228/.295/.281/.576 we got last season.

I also think that Ishikawa and Garko can be a nice platoon tandem at 1B in 2010, once Garko gets used to the NL. Both hit pretty well against their opposite throwing pitchers, and Ishikawa's great defense will be out there most of the time since there are more RHP.

That leaves LF as the main area of question. We could go out and sign a high-priced free agent like Jason Bay, or some lower cost options like Rocco Baldelli, Rick Ankiel, or Xavier Nady. I think they will sign a free agent like Ankiel, as Bay would be expensive and longer-term, and we need to keep budget space open so that we can sign Lincecum and Cain to long-term extensions. That would leave Bowker to battle Schierholtz for RF, with the loser being the 4th OF. And the Giants will probably trade Lewis away.

Rowand in the NY River?

I posted much of the below on another site that had a rumor that the Yankees want Rowand for maybe Matsui and also posted it on El Lefty Malo, so I thought I should put it here as well.  I tried not to make it look too distorted in the flow, plus, as always tweaked based on new thoughts I had:

First off, compared to contracts out there, Rowand is very reasonable, OK if he is average, a bargain if he is out performing. The "problem" is that he's been average more often than outperforming during his career.

However, that's the (real) problem when people who are unfamiliar with a player's background. One reason one year was bad was because he smashed his face on the fence catching a ball. He was batting over 900 OPS when that happened, below average after that. So forgiving him that season (or better crediting him for the great hitting before his injury), he only has the one unexplained poor season and two very good seasons (plus the good start to his injury year) plus 2008, which also started well.

When a young player has an inconsistent year like 2008, you have to wonder whether he's just that inconsistent, but when you have a vet with a history of doing well when not injured, you have to wonder about his 2008 performance (as noted above) being marred by injury: he had roughly 950 OPS first two months of the year, then high 600 OPS rest of the season (think Durham's 2007).

A veteran don't usually do that over such an extended period of time, doing that poorly, without an injury to account for it. He did injure himself severely early in April, but soon was hitting well again, and there is no reported injury that accounts for the severe dropoff after May.

However, something similar happened to Randy Winn a couple of seasons ago, he injured his leg (fouled a ball of his shin if I recall correctly) and while he did return to starting, he didn't hit well at all the rest of 2006 and refused to blame that injury though most fans thought so and reporters asked him repeatedly if that was the case.

Most Giants fans that off-season were complaining about Winn's contract like they are doing now with Rowand's contract. Then he had an OK, Randy Winn-type season in 2007, and fans were in love with him again and he was a fan favorite in 2008 again.

Rowand is today's Winn. Change all the complaints about Rowand, put Winn's name, that was two years ago.

A hitter can go on hot streaks and cold streaks (Durham's 2007), but Rowand's problem has appeared to be injuries that linger on when he should take it easy and heal properly first.   And he is only 30 years old, if he was hitting his peak, he wouldn't hit around 950 to start the season then 600-something the rest of the season, he would struggle offensively like Vizquel did last season and this season.

That's the problem with mechanical forecasting systems, it doesn't capture nuances like this for Winn and Rowand, or any player with an injury. Not that mechanical forecasts aren't great, but you have to know it's limitations.

Rowand has been a very good hitter for a significant amount of ABs. He's also been not so good as well, but much of it can be attributed to an injury he suffered earlier that season.   He has been more a good hitter than a bad hitter when there isn't an injury involved.

Still, I wouldn't go on the record as saying that he's going to be very good in 2009 since there was no official explanation for his drop in 2008 (unlike, say, Morris's drop when it was revealed that he broke a rib but pitched anyway - and poorly - the rest of the season).

I wouldn't go the other way either, as another factor that nobody mentions is how AT&T depresses right-handed hitters stats, which, while not as bad as against lefties, can still be significant. In 2008, he hit .256/.328/.386/.714 at home and a more robust .287/.350/.434/.784 on the road.

So his poor/average season was actually more average to good overall when considering his road numbers.  And I think that is a much better comparison point for any homepark where hitting is skewed either way, whether Giants, Dodgers, Padres for pitcher's parks, or Reds, Rockies, D-backs for hitter's parks.  And consider this: the average NL CF hit .267/.334/.426/.759 whereas Rowand, even with the AT&T downturn, still hit .271/.339/.410/.749 overall, right about average, clearly above average based on his road numbers.

2009 will be his put up or shut-up season. I think that there are a lot of indications that he can be a regularly good hitter - and not even accounting for playing in CF, mid-high 800 OPS would be good for most offensive positions - but there has been enough bad times to wonder if he'll just be a yo-yo the rest of his career, much like how Pete Reiser shortened his career, both length and magnitude, with his multiple injuries.  Still, despite his off-season in 2008, he was still an above average hitter in CF (based on his road numbers).  Think of how good he could be uninjured.

Rowand said before the season that he's learned it's not good to put himself in position to injure himself but then he went ahead and did it within a week or two of joining the Giants. Adrenaline and sheer will, I believe, allowed him to play unfettered by the injury but it eventually caught up with him in June. Or so it seems. Hopefully he has finally learned his lesson and hopefully he will be all healed for 2009.

In any case, the Giants had made a big point of signing him (the Gamer ad program which I enjoyed and, frankly, it was ultimately appropriate as there was no better gamer around than Lincecum) so I don't think he's going anywhere. Plus, he's our only true CF, Winn and Roberts are poor CF. And I think the Giants still believe they got the excellent hitting CF they thought they signed.

Randy Winn is the player who makes the most sense for the Yankees to trade for. He's a reasonable salary, only one year to his contract, produces well, plays 150+ games, can play all OF positions acceptably defensively on a short time basis, RF excellently as a starter, which is cleared by Abreu's free agency.

Plus, the last thing the Giants need is another OF like Cabrera or Matsui, Japanese or not, he's old (the Giants are reportedly looking in Japan more actively now anyhow, I would think they would go young and go relievers) and the Giants are now looking young and clearing their roster of the older players.

That vet strategy was the "Win with Bonds" strategy that didn't work; they are now looking younger and long-term now. The last thing we need is another old about average (and declining the past 4 seasons) OF or young below-average OF, particularly when AT&T kills left hitters.

Because we have plenty of OF options without trading for another. If we trade Winn, Schierholtz gets the chance to show his stuff in RF and I think he will do well, he's done well in short stints with us and well in AAA the past two seasons. He just needs the opportunity. In addition, the Giants have Dave Roberts as utility OF (LF-CF), plus probably John Bowker (LF-RF), perhaps Dan Ortmeier (all 3 OF) and Velez could play LF in a pinch (plus Sandoval, I would think, if necessary). Not great, but no reason to trade a good OF, whether Rowand or Winn, for an OF who, unlike either, is clearly declining in Matsui (OPS+ declining for years now) or a young OF who hasn't hit that well yet, and can't even hit for power in Yankee Stadium.

So unless they are giving up Cano or Jesus Montrero (and I wouldn't do that straight up if I were the Yankees), I don't see what the Yankees have that the Giants would be interested in. I would be interested in Wilson Betemit but not straight up, the Giants would need a prospect thrown in to even up the deal. But he's useful to them so I don't see them giving him up. I just don't see a match between the teams otherwise.  Or if they want to give up some young pitchers like Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes (again, not a deal the Yankees would want to do).   I suppose I wouldn't mind any of their young strikeout relievers, like Edwar Ramirez, Ross Ohlendorf, David Robertson, Phil Coke, or Jonathan Albaladejo.

How about Cano (he had a poor year in 2008, unexplained) and either Wilson Betemit or two of the relievers I listed for Winn (only one year but they can sign him to an extension, I'm sure he would do that)?

Lastly, the Giants have also expressed interest in Alex Rodriguez before, but I assume the Yankees are holding onto him. :^)

Giants Old News: No McPherson

As I noted before, I had written a bunch of stuff, so pardon the staleness of the news, but I wanted to get them out nonetheless. I usually make it one big post, but I think I'm going to post them individually.

Some news during the holidays on the Giants:

• Giants and McPherson go their own way: not too surprising when his agent is Scott Boras, money is the main objective, opportunity to be the future long-term 3B is secondary since there might be opportunities elsewhere. But the longer he's out, there's a chance Boras might come back to the Giants, hat in hand, for McPherson; I just read that Cory Patterson, another Boras client, had priced himself out with the Orioles, but now that starting OF opportunities are drying up, they have come back to the Orioles to see what they can get, so he might try that same tactic for McPherson soon, spring training will be starting pretty soon.
• Giants kicking tires with Tony Clark: not too surprising, Clark is a part-time 1B and so will be paid like one, he has power, with the idea of Ortmeier getting a chance at 1B but Clark is a nice (in Giants mind) fallback/replacement should Orty fail. I wouldn't be thrilled by such a move, but as long as he doesn't cost much money it's a "meh" type of move, nothing exciting either way. I would rather the Giants just start bringing up their 1B prospects in the minors, any of the old guys from AAA last year still around (Leone, McClain) or even give Ishikawa a final chance, his options are up in 2008, may as well see what he can do with an extended chance, his defense is great, see if he can survive up here and deliver some power than rely on an old vet who will cost money to play for us. In any case, I think this is probably a red herring as it's source was Clark's agent talking about places Clark could play at: "Yeah, he'll fit right in there, just give us a nice two year contract..."
• Giants kicking tires with Kent Benson: not too surprising, Benson could be a buy low, sell high opportunity, but I think the main reason the Giants were there was because Sabean's new advisor, Ron Shueler (former GM of ChiSox), makes his home nearby to where Benson recently pitched in front of scouts to generate interest in his services. I assume the thinking is that he might be an option for the rotation should the Giants be able to trade off Lowry and/or Sanchez for a good hitter, but, again, why not give Correia and Misch the opportunity to start? Plus, by the May/June time period, if either is failing at starting, there's always Hennessey to take a spot, plus there should be a minor leaguer or two who show enough promise to come up and get a shot. Nick Pereira has been touted by some fantasy analysts as a pitcher who would get a chance to start with the Giants in 2007, so he's a possibility for 2008 as well. Henry Sosa has a blazing fastball, he could rise up fast if he can harness his heater; Sanchez made just as fast an ascent, if not faster.
• Fear and Loathing, Part Feliz: the longer the Giants are without a 3B, the more I worry that they will resign Feliz. Not that getting him would be the end of the world forecasted by some fans, but I really want Durham to get a chance to try to make himself valuable enough to trade, and that would mean Frandsen gets moved to 3B initially (notice that Aurilia's name has not popped up once as an option) to start, with the plan being to either DFA Durham or trade Durham by or before mid-season, install Frandsen as starting 2B, and either start Aurilia at 3B or obtain a 3B prospect by then. Plus the thought of him getting a raise or, eww, a two year contract, is enough to make me, well, you know....

2007 GM Winter Meeting: Day Two Rumors

I realized that "anti" gives the wrong impression so I'm trying some others until I find one I like. Executive Summary is too pretentious. But I like the juvenile humor of "briefs" so I'll probably go with that for a while.

MLB.com offers a take on today's doings for the Giants plus there's a similar one that I got through sfgiants.com that has similar information but also different info. Seems to be a slow day, but slow is OK, I would rather see a slow day than Lincecum or Cain traded away.

ogc briefs

Rolen rumor appears to have legs but don't know how serious Giants are. Hopefully it doesn't start walking...

Toronto appear to be mentally deranged or think Sabean is.

Rios look terrible in comparison with Lincecum, no way that's equal value.

Sabean says closer by the minute to keeping Cain and Lincecum for 2008 season.

Inge now available for 3B, Sabean probably "kicking some tires" as we speak

Sabean says Nyet to Rolen.

My Spec: CHW Crede available, good bat, great defense, wonder what he would cost.

Lastly, most Giants rumors mainly from other interested parties.

Rolen Rolen Rolen

Apparently the rumors about Rolen has more legs than I had thought. He apparently is willing to waive his no-trade rights because he doesn't like LaRussa. I assume we would trade them a starter, but I think a trade of Lowry or Sanchez for him would be a waste, it would be better to trade off one of our lower level guys who did well. Plus, the Cards should be giving us some money to take him off their hands.

In any case, I hope the trade don't go through, he's a huge risk to miss a lot of games because of injury, basically like Bonds because of his age, because back problems never get better, just managed well.

Toronto Overblown

Apparently Toronto offered Glaus or Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum. It is my hope that Sabean started laughing out loud at the audacity of that suggestion. Crazy deal if the Giants did do that.

Here's a quote that makes me laugh: "But Toronto values Rios (.297, 24 homers, 85 RBIs in 2007) as much as the Giants do Lincecum." What Lincecum is doing and could continue doing is top of the majors performance, even if it is just his first year. Rios's .297 with 24 homers and 85 RBIs is good, no question, but is he among the best around? I don't think so. That would be like the Giants saying they value Randy Winn as much as the Twins value Johan Santana.

Rios Redux

The sfgiants.com take has a lot more info on Rios, but again I had to laugh. Rios has taken 4 years to be semi-good as an OF, so he only has two more years on his cheaper years and is 26 now, whereas Lincecum was very good in his first year in the majors when he was 22 and have five more years on the cheap, relatively. Unless they are giving us Adam Lind in addition, that's not equal value to us, plus getting another two OF would probably make my head explode.

I just got the latest Chron news, and according to John Shea, it is Matt Cain that Toronto wants for Alex Rios. Again, that's crazy talk as well, but not as crazy. Still, I wouldn't trade Cain for Rios, we need a 3B not another OF, even though Sabean says that he'll get a player first then go from there.

Funny how Shea shades the same words that sfgiants.com quotes from Sabean, to imply that Sabean is inclined to trade Cain for Rios, whereas the sfgiants.com articles have been pretty clearly stating that Sabean is not very inclined to do the deal. I wonder which is the correct impression. That's the problem I've been stating about the media, taking the same quotes and giving different meanings to them.

If we are going to trade Cain or Lincecum, trade for infield help, which is where we need help, particularly at 1B which is a premium offensive position, which is only right, Cain and Lincecum is a premium starting pitcher. Or at least 3B since we need a 3B. But repeat after me Sabean: no trading of Cain and/or Lincecum is allowed! :^)

Sabean Nearly "Nyet"

There was Sabean quote on our co-aces:

Thus, Sabean said that he comes closer "with each passing day" to declaring Cain and Lincecum off-limits. Lincecum, Sabean added, has drawn more interest than Cain largely because he won't be eligible for salary arbitration -- and hefty pay increases -- for two more seasons. Cain already is signed through 2010, although his $9 million deal is conveniently economical.

Plus Lincecum pitched a heck of a lot better than Cain did. Lincecum strikes out more, has better command, is just as stingy on the hits, and is more of a groundball pitcher whereas Cain is more of a flyball pitcher. Teams would be happy to have a Cain as the leader of their staff and yet he's probably #2 on our staff to Lincecum's #1. That's why it's assinine to even think of trading either of them.

Inge Incoming?

Also had Sabean quoted about how there's often fall-out from a big trade, thus generating new talk among GMs because of the opportunity to trade. So he noted that after trades such as the Detroit-Florida blockbuster often creates a chain reaction that prompts subsequent deals. The big loser at Detroit in the big Miguel Cabrera trade to Detroit (with Dontrelle Willis to boot!), is Brandon Inge, Detroit's previous 3B starter, who now has no position and the Giants need a 3B. Need I say more?

Sabean Says Nyet to Rolen

Wow, talk about whiplash, the MLB article above says Rolen to SF is hot and heavy, the next one quotes Sabean "denies interest in Rolen".

ChiSox's Crede Available

Fitz on KNBR today reminded me that the Chicago White Sox is looking to trade either Joe Crede or Josh Fields, which I've seen for a while, but mainly Crede, and I wonder if we have what they would want for him. Given that he has issues with his health and a hefty salary, maybe it won't take too much. But he has a nice bat and plays great defense, from what I heard, and that's something Sabean looks for in players, their defensive abilities.

Misc.

There was also a post on McCovey Chronicles that reminded everyone that Sabean often keeps his moves under the radar and out of the press. That's a good reminder and so is the above pas de deux about Rolen, how Sabean normally don't spread rumors about his moves, he likes to be as stealth as possible, so any rumors out there are most probably generated on the part of the team wishing to trade with the Giants. A quote in the second MLB article captures this well:

Sabean expressed no regret over not trading for Cabrera, despite the Giants' initial interest in the hard-hitting third baseman -- who almost surely would have forced them to part with Lincecum or Cain, along with two or three other talented young players. Asked if he thought the Giants ever were close to a deal for Cabrera, Sabean said, "We didn't necessarily want to get too close."

This shows that just because the news reports that the Giants are interested in a player doesn't mean that they actually are actively pursuing the player. They might be, in Sabean's parlance, kicking the tires just to keep close in case the other party decides that the Giants have the best offer.

That could explain the rumors about the Giants and Shawn Green and Hiroki Kuroda. We need a middle of the lineup bat and Green is one. Kuroda is an interesting starter, which if we get him, would make trading young pitching easier (hopefully not Cain or Lincecum).

2007 GM Winter Meeting: Day One Rumors

anti-ogc take

Deals Sabean working on don't include Cain or Lincecum. Close to saying untouchable; finally! Hurrah!

Interesting offer for Lincecum but probably pass. Maybe Reds? They have Encarnacion, Votto, Bailey, Dunn.

Talking with Orioles for Tejada but issues probably not overcomeable. Good.

Maybe Cards trade us Rolen then sign Feliz but issue probably not overcomeable. Good.

Molina not being shopped, but teams are asking. Should keep unless great deal.

Giants interested in CFs? Sabean says nonsubstantial conversations. Good.

Day One Rumors

Got these rumors from MLB.com, from Chris Haft, who follows the Giants for sfgiants.com.

• Serious deals don't involve Cain or Lincecum: Brian Sabean said as the Meetings began that the deals they're seriously considering don't involve Cain or Lincecum, as they are regarded as potential staff aces.
• Giants close to saying Cain and Lincecum untouchable: Finally, should have done that from the get-go. This is like previous years when the other teams just focused on the Giants top prospects and would not go for anyone lesser, leading to little movement. Sabean is realizing that by not shutting the door on that, other teams are hoping to find that magic deal that gets them the big prize, and ignoring dealing for the Giants other prospects, probably in particular, Lowry. I just think the Giants should have decided that the Giants future strategy is centered on the two pitchers (plus Zito) and go from there; this reduces Sabean in my eyes for letting this go on for this long, sure you want to see if there is a "shocking deal" available, there's always a price high enough that you have to take the deal, but he should have shut the door before the GM meetings where deals are most likely to be made.
• Interesting proposal made for Lincecum, but Sabean probably take a pass: MLB Trade Rumors covered this here in their comments. Many commenters there think the Reds is that mystery team. Makes sense, they have a 3B we need in Encarnacion who they don't feel strongly about and we need a 3B. In addition, they might give us 1B Joey Votto, to fill our other hole in the infield, or SP Homer Bailey, who didn't do that well in the majors in his first try up here. There was also talk before about the Reds giving up Adam Dunn, whose salary is so high, and the Giants can absorb his salary easily plus play him at 1B. I would think Dunn is the most likely of that bunch, if I were the Reds I don't think I would part with Votto or Bailey, even for Lincecum. However, as a Giants fan, I would be underwhelmed by this deal and would want Sabean to pass.
• Giants slightly interested in Miguel Tejada: Talking with the Orioles but the Giants are concerned about his age, his $13M for the next two seasons, and "the uncertainty surrounding the position switch," which, from what I got previously from other Tejada rumors, refers to the fact that while the Orioles have been marketing him as a 3B, he has not publicly agreed to a switch to 3B yet. Cause if he refuses to change position, that would create problems since we just signed Vizquel.
• Cards trade us Rolen, they sign Feliz? The rumor that won't die, this rumor has the Cards trading Rolen to us while they sign Feliz to replace him. The common agents are Sam and Seth Levinson (I guess I was wrong about Boras or maybe he switched). However, Rolen would have even more issues than Tejada because of his injury history and longer contract (3 years at $12M).
• Not shopping Molina but listening to offers: Apparently team(s) are still asking the Giants about Molina even though they are not shopping him. Would have to take an incredible offer (or an offer with a MLB ready or near-ready catching prospect) to get Molina, I would imagine, not that I think he's that good but that otherwise we are left with Alfonzo/Rodriguez as the catching combo, and that's not even worthy of a punted season, you don't want to mess with the young pitchers' minds by having defensive-lacking catchers in place.
• Giants mentioned in play for CFs but Sabean squash rumors a bit: Sabean said that the conversations he had about free agents included "nothing really of substance." Giants mentioned for Andruw Jones and Kusoke Fukodome, but Fukodome don't make sense for the team because he's more of a top of lineup hitter profile (heck, the majority are top of lineup types if their top hitter who hit over 50 HR comes here and can't break 25 HR regularly; Godzilla was more like Mothra :^) plus would cost $10M per season and we already have a player like him in Randy Winn, and Andruw carries too much risk given his very poor 2007, meaning that the Giants wouldn't be interested in more than a year or two contract, but Jones and Boras will want a 3-5 year contract, possibly at $20M per.

2007 GM Winter Meeting: My Musing Addendum

anti-ogc take

Sign Lincecum to as long as deal as possible this off-season.

Cards sign Feliz because he shares same agent as Rolen? I don't care as long as we get a pick.

Reds want pitching, offering Encarnacion. Giants should work on deal with them.

Sign Lincecum Now

Shame on me for forgetting the most important thing Sabean should do in the off-season: sign Tim Lincecum to a long-term contract covering into this free agent years if possible. That would do a lot to keep Giants fans interested.

Feliz Sighting

I find this rumor too incredible to believe but must report it. Apparently the Cardinal's are thinking of trading off Scott Rolen to Milwaukee for Chris Capuano (plus Cards send some cash to offset his salary) and, get this, because Rolen shares the same agent as Feliz, which oft-hand I find incorrect because I thought that Rolen's agent was Boras but let's go with that maybe Rolen changed at some point, that automatically makes Feliz the one they sign to replace Rolen. Whatever, as long as we get a draft pick out of it for him.

Addendum to the Addendum

Just saw a rumor that the Reds want pitching and is willing to trade Encarnacion for it. The site mentioned Lowry but I would want another position prospect to go with him. I wonder what we could get if we offer them two starters, say Lowry and Correia? Or even Hennessey.

Addendum to the Addendum of the Addendum

Shame on me for not sourcing my information, it was from the great site MLB Trade Rumors, which has been identifying reporters who appear to have good accuracy with rumors and has created a network of associates who help out.

2007 GM Winter Meeting: My Musing

First, I want to try something different with this post and perhaps future posts if I get a good response from readers (and it appears I have about 100 core readers, thanks!). My main man Myron views my posts via his cell phone sometimes and I know I have an issue with verboseness. So I'll do this, say, for the rest of the year and then reassess in the New Year.

What I'm thinking of starting each post with, for lack of a better term coming to mind immediately, is an executive summary. And to make it interesting to me, as much as I like to pack into each post every bit of information I think is pertinent to understanding what I'm writing about, I'm going to try to go in the opposite direction with the executive summary (plus, my executive summary tends to get pretty large anyhow) and condense it to as few words as possible. Think of it as the "anti-ogc take". But time is a premium to me because of my family and job search, so, in advance, please excuse me if I take a short cut on it and leave it overly long, but I'll try to do it for as many as I can this month (assuming enough people say they want this).

anti-ogc take

Winter meeting start with wimper: Feliz offered arbitration. Barf, but that's life sometimes.

If I were GM, I would stand pat and see what we got with our prospects and players. No trade unless "shocked".

People worry too much about offense, sometimes good offense is a great defense/pitching.

Trading is best if there are replacements ready to take over for lost players.

Pause in 2008 to see what we got. Play prospects whereever we can: Wilson, Ortmeier, Frandsen, Schierholtz, Misch/Sanchez/Correia, maybe Lewis.

Be patient. We're rebuilding. No need to make moves now, any moves made now probably could be made mid-season or next off-season, won't make a signficant difference in our 2008 or 2009 seasons in terms of making the playoffs in any case. So if we screw up 2008, who cares, we get a better 2009 draft pick, which probably should be the most important goal of 2008.

Don't worry, be happy we got Cain and Lincecum (with Villalona too).

GM Winter Meetings

With Sabean et al heading to Nashville I thought I would talk about where I see things with the Giants right now. I got into it a bit in my comment with Marco (who stole my thunder! :^) but wanted to capture it all in a post.

Barf: Feliz Offered Arbitration

First off, Feliz has been offered arbitration. What some fans don't understand sometimes is that life's situations forces you into bad places sometimes. That's life. With no great 3B alternative internally or via free agency, the Giants need to get a 3B and as bad as Feliz is, he is great defensively.

So it is a calculated risk to do this. If he accepts, then we are "set" at 3B, though we would have to probably overpay for him in arbitration, probably in the $7-8M range, though I'm hoping for more like $6-6.5M since he is so lousy offensively. Luckily, most teams feel the need to hold back their negative comments, but here they can probably blast him with both barrels because no matter how he feels about being treated here, he has to do well in 2008 to entice another team to sign him to a contract.

However, most probably at what I would place at 99.9999%, Feliz will turn down the offer because with the deadline for refusing only being next Friday, accepting arbitration would make his stance for a 3-year contract appear to be a whim - which will hurt any negotiations his agents have with teams in future years for a long-term contract. Especially given his big talk about finding schools elsewhere and other statements made to reporters about his impending free agency. With so little time to decide, he is pretty much forced to refuse arbitration if he is at all serious about a 3 year contract. Of course, that's assuming he doesn't get signed to a 3 year contract over the weekend (and I'm laughing at that notion too :^D).

So in all likelihood, Feliz will refuse arbitration and him being a B free agent, should he actually sign with anyone else, the Giants will get a draft pick from the signing team. Unfortunately, the risk of us re-signing him, say, in Jan/Feb timeframe still exists because 1) I don't expect any team to seriously want to sign him to a contract, particularly if they have to give up a draft pick, 2) with Pittsburgh offering Bay to the Indians, Marte probably is gone in that deal, and I'm not sure which other 3B is available, though I've seen rumors that Encarnacion can be had from the Reds (Lowry or Sanchez?) and the 'Dres have Headley and Kouzmanov, but that's intra-division so very unlikely, plus they might move Headley to 2B as some rumors state.

If I Were GM

Basically I would want to stand pat. Not that I think that we are all that great (except Cain and Lincecum, natch), but that doing any move for the most part is, to steal from what others have written, like moving around the deck chairs on the Titanic (not that I think the Giants are like the Titanic, that's others thinking).

We have two great pieces in Cain and Lincecum. They impart advantage in our starting rotation for the reasons I have given before. Unless someone is willing to trade us, say, a young starting 1B, young starting 3B, and another good prospect (preferably SS, like if D-gers offered us Loney, LaRoche, and Hu), I wouldn't give either of them up. But if someone is willing "shock" me, as Sabean had put it, then I would have to consider and probably do the trade.

Trade When It Makes Sense

But even then, I don't want to trade just to make a trade. Lowry and Sanchez are probably our two biggest trading chips, followed by Hennessey (long, set-up, closer plus starter), Correia (SP/RP), Misch (SP/RP), and perhaps Henry Sosa (I'm assuming Villalona is untouchable; he signed for less because he liked us, to trade him away would send the message to all other Carribean players that they shouldn't sign with us for less because we might just trade him away soon afterward. Plus, he has 40 HR potential, it would take Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder or someone similar to entice enough to take Villalona off my hands).

The way I see it, we have a nice set of pitchers, and it is special in terms of Cain and Lincecum, but we are not yet overflowing in talent, there is no great surplus as people have been saying we have. If we trade people away, we create holes in pitching that will need to be filled up quickly by prospects in 2008. And what if they don't, or, as some fear, one of our young pitchers become injured, stating TINSTAAPP. That just drops us back into the hole of needing more talent.

So before we go too far with our rebuilding, we need to know exactly what we are rebuilding. Trading away what we think is surplus today, especially given TINSTAAPP, could result in us needing pitching again. So even for our lesser trading chips than Cain/Lincecum, we should not be looking to just trade them just to mix things up, we need to make sure we get equal or better value in exchange for them.

What's wrong with taking a pause in 2008? We should see what we got with all our prospects, not just Lewis, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ortmeier, but give another year of development for all our prospects in the minors, plus, probably most importantly, giving Bumgarner, Alderson, Fairley, Noonan, Culberson, Williams, D'Alessio, Oteri, and other draft picks a full season to see what they can go. For example, Sabean thought that Bumgarner and Alderson could be contributing to the majors in two years, which means 2009. 2008 would be proof in the pudding whether such a timetable is feasable or not.

And, of course, all our pitchers in the major league staff as well. Cain and Lincecum appear to be great but yes, pitchers are high-priced china-dolls waiting to break, and they are not often what they seem. I think one more year should tell us what to expect from the two of them. Wood and Prior, to name a prior young two-ace constellation, started having physical problems within a couple of full seasons.

But trading them off because of this physical reality seems like a way to CYA, it is not one of going for the gusto. I want a World Series championship. I'm not going to beat myself or the team up if they don't win one, but I want one. I believe a two-ace rotation is a powerful way of controlling a short series and that's what the playoffs are, a series of short series. Whether it is Cain/Lincecum or a combo of one of them with one of our upcoming starters, I don't really care, but I feel very strongly that this is the way to greatly improve our chances in the playoffs.

Some believe that we first need to focus on winning in the season now. That's useless ultimately because if you trade away your advantage now, there is no guarantee that you can trade your way back to that strength after you build up the team. Either way, you need to rebuild the team, so why break up your advantage now to get an incremental rebuild that still requires a lot of rebuilding (the Miguel Cabrera gambit) and why not keep your advantage (Cain/Lincecum) and continue the rebuild in 2008 and see where the pieces fall.

I strongly believe in pitchers with a lot of command (i.e. high K/BB). Cain, unfortunately, has struggled there all of his career. Both Bumgarner and Alderson have been huge command pitchers (as well as dominating with the K) and we should have a good feel for how good both of them are in 2008, and whether either can replace Cain in this duo-ace role.

Another thing that people seem to forget is that there is a ying/yang to offense and pitching. If you have great pitching, you don't need to have such great offense. If you believe in Bill James Pythagorean concept, winning is a function of run scored and runs allowed, and if we concentrated on keeping runs allowed low, we don't need a great offense to win 90 games and (most times) make the playoffs. Heck, we don't even need an average offense, to be at .500 this last season, we only needed a slight improvement in the offense to reach that.

For example, last season the Giants allowed 4.44 runs per game. We averaged 4.22 runs per game, good for 15th in the league. A 4.44 runs scored would have moved us up to just 14th place. I think trying to get back to .500 should be our first step in rebuilding, and it should not take much to reach there.

Also, if we keep the same pitching together, growth, maturity and development should drop that to the 4.2-4.3 range. Or we could trade off one of our good pitchers and replace him in the rotation with a lesser pitcher, and stay in that same 4.4-4.5 runs allowed range, but add hitting that raises us up by 0.2 runs per game. In other words, unless we hope to rob another team, whatever hitting they provide us will only be offset by the loss of pitching and lower replacement, it is pretty much a zero sum game unless you can trade off non-starters and prospects who were not part of the sum in the previous season.

Trading off a core member of the previous season's team creates a hole there unless you have someone to replace and pretty much duplicate his performance. We have no one of the caliber of Cain and Lincecum coming up in 2008 to replace their performance, so we take a hit there in order to improve our hitting. Zero sum.

That's why trading off Lowry and/or Sanchez would lead to an improvement. Lowry is a good pitcher, but Misch appears to be a similar type of pitcher and is even better at both striking out batters and not walking as many. Lowry can be replaced in the rotation with someone similar and, more importantly, someone who might match his performance. Sanchez was only in the bullpen, and we have a number of people ready to move into the bullpen who were not there in 2007, again, adequate performance replacement.

You don't trade just to trade, you need to take the whole team into context and move your chess pieces accordingly.

Take Pause in 2008

As noted above, we should take a pause in 2008. Trade only if it clearly makes the team better, but otherwise stand pat. By pausing, I mean we see what we have in our hand with our prospects. We need to see if Ortmeier is any good at 1B, Frandsen is any good as a hitter, Schierholtz is any good in RF, Lewis is any good in the OF, see if our pitchers get better or get injured/inconsistent, see if our prospects continue to develop (or not). I think things will be clearer where we are and what we got after the 2008 season.

Thus, assuming we stand pat and do no trade (the main trade I would like to see is to get a young 3B prospect cheaply plus unloading Durham for either bullpen or 1B and perhaps trading Winn for good prospect or two), I would want to see a lineup at the start of the season of:

C - Benjie Molina
1B - Dan Ortmeier
2B - Ray Durham
3B - Kevin Frandsen
SS - Omar Vizquel
LF - Roberts/Davis
CF - Winn
RF - Schierholtz

UT - Alfonzo/Rodriguez, Aurilia, Lewis, Davis, Velez?

SP - Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Lowry, Misch
RP - Wilson, Walker, Hennessey, Correia, Sanchez, Chulk/Messenger, Kline

Question Marks

1B: I understand the concern over Ortmeier. I'm not saying he's going to be as good a hitter as 2007, but it's not like he hasn't been a good hitting prospect before. Let's see what he can do before we trade off someone valuable to fill 1B. Given the strategy of punting 2008 and taking a pause, why not give Ortmeier half a year to see what he can do? If he fails, we insert Aurilia in there or make that trade that people have suggested to get a 1B.

2B: If we unable to trade off Durham, we have to play him in hopes he can return to his previous normal good hitting self. If he hits, then we work hard to trade him off for someone so that Frandsen can play 2B, or even play Frandsen at 3B and Velez at 2B. 2008 should be all about finding out what our prospects can and can't do. Though if the rumored Durham for Sexson trade goes through, I would be OK with playing him over Ortmeier, as I think it is more important to see what Frandsen can do at 2B than Ortmeier at 1B, for all the reason Chris used in his excellent rebuttal to my suggestion of starting Ortmeier at 1B. I would prefer trading Durham for bullpen help, if I had my druthers.

3B: I understand the concern over Frandsen's fielding at 3B. But he couldn't be as bad as Ryan Braun's hacktastic fielding (and not that he would match Braun's hitting), and since he played there before, he couldn't be THAT bad a fielder, as long as he is about average, that's all we can hope for, the main thing is we need to see what type of bat he has so that we can decide whether to start him at 2B in 2009 or search for another 2B. So we find him a position to start at and go from there.

LF: Davis's horrible slump in September screams that his first month with us was a fluke, but that's OK, he's perfect as a platoon buddy with Roberts, particularly since he hits much better against LHP than RHP. I would not have been happy seeing him start in CF and Schierholtz on the bench. Roberts I have extolled his second half after he was healthy, he was back to where he was over the past few years when he established himself.

CF: I would rather give Fred Lewis the start here to see what he can do, but Winn makes too much plus he actually was one of the team's best players in 2007, so we need to let him play and continue to be good so that we can perhaps trade him for a nice prospect or two and THEN let Lewis start in CF. Sitting or platooning him as some suggests, just kills his trade value and we might then have to eat his salary, and I hate wasting payroll.

RF: Got to give Schierholtz a full season to show himself, so even if he has a slow start (much like Kouzmanoff in 2007), he needs to play and get his bearings. Prior in his career, he has needed time to adjust to the higher level of competition, but then once adjusted, he just blasts the ball around. We need to give him that time, even into 2009, as long as he is hitting decently and not like under 600 OPS.

UT: Aurilia is our insurance at 1B and 3B, in case either totally flops, but in no case should he take over starting, he would just be playing a lot more and Frandsen and/or Ortmeier, a lot less, both should still see playing time. Velez I threw in there because we need another infielder, though I suppose Niekro or McCain could fit in there as well. Lewis should still get a lot of AB's, either CF for Winn (give Winn more rest, play him about 140 games), plus RF (Schierholtz isn't playing 162 games), and he gets all the DH opportunities (that's another 15-20 games normally). That should give him about half a season of play, more if Roberts has an injury, which he appears to be prone to.

SP: I would like to see Sanchez take the last spot but realistically, Misch has shown the most as a starter, and I expect him to take the last spot. That's why I think Lowry should be aggressively marketed in trades and see if we can get someone to overpay a bit for him, because I think Misch can step in and do well in his place. And Correia did so well in starting, that he might beat out Misch, but I like Misch striking out so many, whereas Correia doesn't.

RP: Wilson will hopefully hold the closer spot this time, and Walker look like he would be good in setup, in combo with everyone else. Hennessey probably can be traded for good prospects because of all the roles he can take on, particularly closing in a pinch, plus setup and starting, but probably not until mid-season when a team is desperate. That's OK, he can help anchor the bullpen until then. Correia will probably end up here, though I would be just as happy if he pitches knock-out baseball like he did late in 2007 and snare a spot in the rotation instead.

Future Offense

I am not that worried for a variety of reasons. The offense without Bonds in 2007 was potent enough to put us middle of the pack in 46 games, and while that is small samples, it was spread across the season and there was only one real outlier (the 15 run game, plus the 10 run game but that I consider normal). It should be better in 2008 because Roberts will be healthy the whole year (as a hitter, though might have nagging injuries like Durham had before; in previous years injury didn't affect hitting, just playing time), Schierholtz usually improves in his second try at a level and even then he was at 85 OPS+, Frandsen should be able to outhit Feliz's 710 OPS at 3B, and Ortmeier/Aurilia at 1B should not be any worse than Aurilia/Klesko in 2007.

Plus, we don't know what talent will be available after the arbitration acceptance due date next Friday. We picked up Jose Cruz Jr. one time because he was non-tendered (and those should be apparent now, though I'm not aware yet who has been let go) and who knows which players refuse arbitration and go out into the market as free agents. There might be other options available to us soon.

In addition, cost/performance is what is trying us now, so maybe once we get into Jan/Feb we can do what KC and Pittsburg has done in previous years, take on cheap vets who can hold a spot for us while we evaluate things. So maybe get a 1B/3B type who can sit on the bench behind Ortmeier/Frandsen, and Aurilia would truly be a utility player instead of a potential starter.

In any case, there is still a lot of time until opening day to tweak the lineup in a cost effective way while rebuilding. And even if all the things I speculated on doesn't happen? We are re-building, it don't matter much, if we lose more, we'll just get a better draft pick in 2009.

Which should probably be the more important goal of 2008. We got a great pick in 2008's draft, #5, and we should get another good one in 2009's draft. These picks could be just as important to our future as our picks in 1985 and 1986, when we selected Will Clark and Matt Williams.

So why trade for a 1B prospect with a valuable pitcher? See if Ortmeier works and if he doesn't as some suspect, we can still trade for a 1B prospect with a valuable pitcher. Same for 3B. Same for RF. Losing don't really matter, evaluating what we have for the future should be the issue.

Same for Cain and Lincecum, I'm not saying we never break them up, but we wait to see what else springs up from the farm system, there is no urgency to change things up now, there is no need to upgrade positions now, all these changes can be delayed and it won't really affect our chances in 2008 or 2009 much. Such is the fate when your team is re-building and in poor shape talent wise.

Don't worry, be happy we have Cain and Lincecum (plus Villalona too).

Good News: Lincecum and Cain Trade Would Be Shocking

I'm a little late to this but what the heck. At a conference yesterday where Sabean announced a passel of new advisors, he answered some questions about the Giants plans. There are reports on that conference call at the Chronicle, the Mercury, and the Bee, that I've read.

Of course, as my long-time regular readers know, I've complained repeatedly that each reporter seems to have a different take on what was said in the conference call, or leaves out what I think is important information that another reporter fortunately saw fit to publish. That's why I wish the Giants would still post their press conferences on-line at their website so that people like me can hear what was said and get all the information.

There are great takes on it at McCovey Chronicles and El Lefty Malo. And I posted some stuff at both sites, of course.

The main takeaways are these, which I rank in order, that's about the main value I can provide over what's been done already:

First and foremost, Lincecum and Cain isn't going anywhere unless Sabean is "shocked" with a tremendous offer. Miguel Cabrera was asked about and he ripped the Marlins for asking for the moon for him. He basically complained that any team approaching the Giants ask for Cain or Lincecum and, reading between the lines, he's tired of them until they are ready to put up a blockbuster package. From the reports, Cabrera was not blockbuster enough because he's probably not signing an extension and would leave in two years, and neither was Delmon Young blockbuster enough. Our two ace pitchers are virtually untouchable because of "what their future brings".

Good, that's the way I feel too. It sounds like that Sabean is trying to work on other teams to give up a 3B and/or impact bat for young players other than Cain and Lincecum, and he speculates that once the winter meetings are over, the price might go down for such a player. He thinks he will get this player(s) via trade most probably, rather than free agency, and he has "about a half dozen" deals that he is working on.

Second, the Merc's account notes that Sabean said that he wouldn't shy away from acquiring players for major roles who haven't proven themselves at the major league level. That's quite a departure from past tactics and would open up the team to more trade possibilities. Andy Marte is mentioned in the accounts, and the Chron went through a laundry list, though I must say here that no NL West team is going to trade off a good prospect that they have to us, it can come back to haunt them repeatedly if they lay an egg in the trade.

I cannot remember the last position player we did that with during Sabean's tenure. In fact, I don't think that's ever happened, the closest would be obtaining Jeff Kent, who played a lot but wasn't a starter (that is, hadn't played a full season; he did start a lot of games so he wasn't untested or unproven, just wasn't ever given the opportunity to play a full season) when we got him. He's probably also the youngest non-starting player we obtained to become a starter too, heck, he's probably the only non-starter acquired to become a starter.

In addition, the Chron's version notes that they are open to hitters who play any position, even ones that currently seem filled. Sabean noted, "We're smart enough to know that whenever the iron strikes, you have to make the adjustment." I don't particularly like this because I'm afraid he might pick up another OF when we have so many OF prospects who 1) have done well in short stints with the Giants and 2) have done well in the minors, enough to earn a chance to show what they can do up here. But I guess a Delmon Young would have been nice, though still I would like to see Schierholtz get a shot in RF.

Third, Rajai Davis is not considered ready for CF, and more importantly, the Giant are thinking of moving Winn back to CF and, depending on which version you read, RF would go to Schierholtz or he and Lewis will compete for it. As nice a story and history that Lewis has had, I think Schierholtz has the bigger potential and hopefully he will become the starting RF for the Giants in 2008. That would provide a nice middle of the line-up bat right there.

The cloud in the coffee on this feel-good story is that the Giants are still considering free agents for CF and as noted above, they will acquire regardless of players we already have. It sounds like they will be among the bidders if Andruw Jones is willing to go with a 1-2 year contract. Plus they have apparently contacted Aaron Rowand's agent. And who knows who else they might be "kicking the tires" with.

The Merc's account also noted that the Giants has tried shopping Roberts, Durham, and Aurilia but found no buyers. It also noted that they were not looking to move Molina either. And Winn I think he still has a no-trade until sometime next year, maybe mid-season.

The main rumor out there for these vets has been Molina to the Mets, but that seems to be a false rumor now because the Mets just today traded for Brian Schneider, late of the Nats, because he is a strong defensive catcher and not much of a hitter, and the articles stated that they were looking for a defensive catcher so that they can possibly non-tender Johnny Estrada, who they just received in a trade and who is not known for his defense either, he's known for his offense. Molina is acceptable defensively in some quarters, not so much in most others. His main value is his bat relative to his position.

Fourth, the Chron's version includes a quote from Bochy that I found interesting. It followed Sabean's answer to the question of what happens if the Giants don't acquire someone, which was that he would focus on making "our pitching stronger" (so they'll acquire more pitchers?). Bochy said, "It's always good to have an impact player, but they [Arizona] didn't have an impact player. They didn't have one guy. We've talked about a different brand of ball, everybody contributing and not leaning on one guy or waiting for a guy to hit a three-run homer. Sure, they are great to have, but there are teams that win without them."

That's a view I've been hewing to in my statement, though not explicitly stated, that we could be competitive offensively with what we have. In 46 games where Bonds did not start, the team averaged 4.7 runs per game according to a post-season article in the Merc. Admittedly small samples, but still, that's not a small amount of games either, that's almost a third of the season plus it was sprinkled all across the season for the most part until the very end. There was that big scoring game where they scored 15 runs, and taking out that outburst drops it to 4.5 runs per game. The team allowed 4.44 runs per game in 2007 and I expect it to be better in 2008, due to improvements in the starting rotation (full season Lincecum, Cain more consistent, Zito over jitters) and the bullpen (Wilson and Walker should help improve the bullpen greatly), so that's a .500 record right there.

The main thing, whether it's starting Ortmeier at first and Frandsen at third as I've been pushing for, or Zito, Lincecum and Cain improving on what they did last season, is that we give it a shot and see what happens. That's the bottom line, you cannot get much cheaper than Ortmeier at 1B without trading away some valuable pitching to get an alternative at 1B, and there's no guarantee that we can get a good 1B or 3B for Lowry or any other package. And even if you get a better 1B prospect (again at the cost of a good pitching prospect like Sanchez), there is no guarantee he's going to be any good either, and even if he is good, it doesn't make us good enough to compete for the division title, unless we get the second coming of Morneau, Howard, or Fielder.

So give the youngsters a chance, it is not like the Giants are going to be that competitive in 2008. Worry over cost/benefit don't really fit in when the cost is giving up good pitching prospects to get a valid 1B prospect versus giving Ortmeier a chance at 1B. At worse, if he fails, Aurilia can take over, or perhaps we can trade for someone mid-season, just as suggested now by others. Why not give Ortmeier a chance to start and see what happens, we can always get that suggested player mid-season instead.

Fifth, the Bee's version quotes Sabean as saying that Frandsen could play 3B if the Giants can't talk Feliz into another one year contract. I know that there are people who don't want to see Frandsen at 3B, but as far as I'm concerned, I'm worried less about defense than giving our young prospects a chance and seeing what they got. But he doesn't have the starting job sewn up, Aurilia was mentioned too.

Apparently Feliz's agents are asking for a 3 year deal - as good as his defense has become, and Baseball Musing's PMR shows him as one of the best in the majors, getting 30+ more outs than expected for the number of balls handled, his offense is equally horrid - so good luck with that, I will put this demand up there with Aurilia's agents asking for 4 years, $32M initially when he went free agent with the Giants. Not. Going. To. Happen.

Seeing that Feliz was so good defensively according to PMR, I can swallow it if the Giants do sign him to another one year deal (but I won't be happy, it'll be like taking nasty medicine, like cod liver oil). But still, we need to see how Frandsen can do as a starter. So whether it's we just give him 2B, we give him 3B, or we trade Durham and give him 2B, we must give Frandsen a chance to do what he has done in the minors, and prep for 2009. It will be nice if we are competitive in 2008 (much like it would have been nice to be competitive in 1997, after Matt Williams was traded away; fortunately we were more than that) but I say again that our focus should be on 2009 and beyond, if we punt 2008, so be it, if some youngsters come through, hurrah and let's celebrate.

Giants to Trade a Young Pitcher

The SJ Mercury reported today (twice!) that the "Giants officials are coming to the realization they will have to trade at least one of their young pitchers to reconstruct the lineup this winter." The Merc noted that the success of Jonathan Sanchez and Kevin Correia have made the Giants management feel more comfortable about dealing a pitcher. I would give a link except it annoys me that they eventually take the link out of circulation anyway; just have a bookmark to their Giants page and go there when I mention them; or, hmm, maybe I'll just do that from now on! Doh!).

More importantly, the Update side-column on Lowry's Elbow makes the point that "Club officials said they continue to consider Cain and Lincecum untouchable." Amen to that, it is ridiculous for anyone to suggest that we trade either of them. Together, they could potentially be the nucleus of one of the best tandem's in Giants history and if Zito can keep it going, it could be quite an awesome trio as well, for many years to come.

So with Cain and Lincecum off the table, that leaves only one obvious choice to trade, which means nothing will probably happen over the off-season: Lowry. Zito's contract is still too large for anyone to take on unless the Giants pony up cash, and I don't see the Giants doing that. Sanchez could be one, but he's a big strikeout guy and still a bit erratic, so I see another team trying to low-ball the Giants.

Or they won't offer enough to make a big difference: the Mets reportedly offered Carlos Gomez, who some have described as having Jose Reyes potential in CF and he did well in the majors until he was injured. But we already have a OF full of prospects (albeit none as good as Gomez) and two CF already in Roberts and Winn (though Roberts plays excellent defense in LF). But even if we inserted him into the offense, he won't change the offense all by himself and make it suddenly respectable. We need more and Lowry, once he shows that he is healthy in spring training, would be the big draw to get two good position prospects from another team.

2008 Offense

Now Allfrank has been touting our offense for 2008 and, for a lot of it, I can agree with or at least see his logic (though I thought his numbers at Lefty Malo was off). But the way I've been trying to analyze the Giants chances year by year is by whether they can win the NL West crown and thereby make the playoffs.

Trying to see beyond that is futile, I think, even for the Yankees and Red Sox with their money-laden teams, except for trying to make your pitching and defense as bullet-proof as possible. I believe a troika of Cain, Lincecum, and Zito can make for a dominating run through the playoffs, but there is so much randomness in performances that to outright say one year or another that we're going all the way would be incredibly naive and disingenuous.

So each year, to me, is a matter of estimating how good the Giants are and then seeing how that fits against other teams in the NL West. In prior years, I wasn't scared of the other teams, so I felt that even if the Giants were no great shakes themselves, they had a good chance of winning the division still, if they just play to potential and be at or around .500. Then our chances are improved in the playoffs versus the regular season because Bonds would be in the lineup every day instead of sitting out a game or two per week.

But, to me, this season right now both the 'Dres and the D-gers look good enough - again - to be around 90 wins going forward and I know the Giants are not good enough to reach that without serious playing over their heads going forward. Hence why, as Anon noted, I was touting the Giants early in the pre-season but now don't see much going for 2008.

Before the season, I thought Vizquel and Durham were going to continue to be useful parts of the offense and that Klesko would show more than he did. None of that came true and they appear to be career ending type of suckitude, plus Roberts had elbow problems and Aurilia had neck problems. Hence why 2008 is clearly an offense that's going to suck, whereas I thought 2007, based on pre-season assumptions that proved false, would be better. I don't see why Anon can't see that.

The Real World

That's the real world, you make assumptions that appear to be valid, and when things go the wrong way, you adjust your thinking to fit what now appears to be the facts. Some may claim to have "known" that this was going to happen, but only if Durham could have had his normal .800-something OPS, we would be having a much better season right now, perhaps even not be in last place and close to the leaders. Add in a faster acclimation by Zito, Aurilia and Roberts being healthy for the year, and Vizquel hitting .700 OPS, we could have been up there.

But nobody predicted that Durham would have the worse season by far as a regular, heck, it isn't even an average season for anyone. It was a horrible season for anybody, it is bad when his numbers make you pine for Neifi Perez and he was the absolute worse. And nobody saw that happening.

Demanding, Sch-manding

The problem with some sports fans is that they set very high and very unrealistic goals for their team and puff their chests and crow about how "demanding" they are. I've been called optimistic but for the past few years, I've been calling the Giants a .500 team who's only in contention because the competition was so weak. I thought that was realistic based on the assumptions made.

Demanding doesn't make things happen (see Pirates and Royals). Nothing we do makes things happen. However, one can at least enjoy what we can and try to understand moves (or continue to lambaste them Vlad ). I have seen fans who couldn't enjoy the 2000-2004 period - that was about as good a period as there was in SF Giants history, particularly in the past 37 seasons - and I just don't understand that.

I Have Enjoyed This Season

I have enjoyed this season. Not because I'm optimistic, but because we had some nice performances from Lincecum, Cain, and some hope and excitement from Lewis, Ortmeier, Schierholtz, Davis, Frandsen, Sanchez, Misch, Wilson, Correia, and Hennessey. Winn and Molina also had nice seasons, and Roberts after he finally recovered from surgery. And of course, Barry's season of milestones. And given the twists and turns that Zito has gone through, to see him at a 4.41 ERA is pretty good because of his nice run since August started: 9 starts, 10 games, 58.2 IP, 39 hits and 18 BB, with 44 K's and 8 HR (6.0 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 2.44 K/BB) with a 2.61 ERA.

Of course, it sucks that we lost and lost a lot. And for all that we might still not get a draft pick not much different from last year's #10: today we have the 8th pick. However, we are only 1 game "ahead" of the 9th pick and is within 2 games of "rising" to the 3rd to 6th pick. So that will change day to day, with so many "vying" for a top 5 pick.

But the way I saw it early season, the way to enjoy the season was to enjoy the pitching staff, because they are the cornerstone of the future, they are the centerpiece. And for the most part, that has been enjoyable. I know the bullpen's not that great, but they did OK overall and there is hope with the way Wilson pitched at the end, plus Correia and Hennessey were steady influences again, much as they were in 2006, at least until Hennessey suddenly lost it all. The rotation was up and down, but how can you not enjoy it overall, looking at what Cain, Lincecum, Lowry did, plus Morris early and Zito late, and of course the turns by Sanchez, Correia, and Misch.

This is How I Do It

I come to baseball to enjoy it and this is the way I do it. You set certain expectations, plus look out for certain players. Was I happy all the time? No, but when you are hoping to have a .500 season, there's a good chance you are going to be a loser that season if some things don't go your way. And this season, there were a lot that didn't go our way, starting with Durham and ending with Linden.

So I don't focus as much on the winning in seasons like this, though I will always enjoy wins, but you pick through the remains of the game and see what positives you can see from it, much like how Lefty picks his PLODAG. We lost a lot of well pitched games, Cain in particular, but I could enjoy that our pitchers were bringing it overall, even if it didn't result in a win. And I enjoyed the nice performances that Lewis, Davis, Ortmeier, and Schierholtz gave in certain games during the season.

And it is encouraging to me that the bullpen was terrible in preventing inherited runners from scoring. Why? Because that means that if we can fix the bullpen with one or two key signings for 2008, plus key additions like Brian Wilson and maybe Tyler Walker, these runners don't score, the pitching rotation has an even better ERA, and the offense can still suck but win more games.

I don't need a World Series championship to enjoy the season, though I would love one that my dear Uncle who has been a fan since 1958 can see and experience. I enjoy what I can, when I can, and if that makes me an optimist, so be it, but to me, an optimist only sees blue skies ahead, and I see plenty of rain in the coffee for at least the next season, perhaps more.

2008 Looks Bad

We had only one player much above an OPS+ of 100 and that was Bonds, again by a mile. As much as I want to see our young OF play, he looks like a lock to be re-signed for 2008. I'm only hoping the Giants only pay him much less, like under $10M, and that it will be an agreed upon retirement tour, with celebrations and minimal play on the part of Bonds: enough so that he can reach his goal of 3,000 hits, but then we play the young players a lot, maybe half the time in LF (Bonds get some extra ABs from DH-ing).

And none of the free agents, including Torii Hunter look to make us that much better, particularly an OF free agent when we still got Roberts and Winn PLUS all the OF prospects. Ideally, we keep Roberts and trade Winn, start Schierholtz in RF and swap in Lewis and Davis in LF and CF with Roberts, depending on the matchups. But since Bonds probably is there, I'm hoping he just plays a light 90-100 game schedule, giving Lewis and Davis a lot of games in the OF, plus a few games in RF, as Schierholtz won't start the whole season.

And I'm encouraged that our young OF are all hitting respectably in their first season of MLB play. They all have OPS+ in the 90's: Lewis 96, Ortmeier 92, Davis 99, Schierholtz 91. Sure, you would rather have the Ryan Braun's and Hunter Pence's or Billy Butler's, but you need to fill your team with some average regular players somewhere in your lineup as well, then you don't have to go to free agency to fill empty spots on your team, you fill from within and maybe pick up the superstar off free agency.

The only free agent I see worth pursuing is A-Rod and we have about zero chance of signing him. Then again, I would have bet that we had zero chance of signing Zito as well and yet here he is. So you never know.

Plus pick up a nice set-up guy, to mix in with Hennessey, Walker, Wilson for the closer and setup roles, and try to solidify the bullpen so that the starters don't have so many runners scored after they leave. That alone could make our team a solid .500 team in 2008, which is still not good enough to compete with the high-80 win teams of the 'Dres and D-gers, but at least that's respectable. You have to start somewhere, and from where we are today, .500 is an improvement.

I Hope You Enjoy 2008 Nonetheless

And set your expectations low for 2008. I'm hoping the Giants chose to make it a rebuilding year and not sign many free agents, just key ones that would help the team in a significant way, like a tipping point, such as an A-Rod or a strong set-up reliever. Ideally you have young players all over: Ort at 1B, Ochoa at SS, Frandsen at 3B, Schierholtz in RF, Davis and Lewis seeing significant time in OF since Roberts platoons and Bonds is old and retiring, and hopefully Winn is traded (nothing against him, but we just need the space and Roberts can teach our speedsters a lot). Plus Molina catching, Durham at 2B (no one is going to take his contract without most of the salary paid for), and Aurilia getting regular starts across the entire infield: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS. But I can see Vizquel also getting a one year retirement tour contract as well, hopefully not more than the $1-2M range and we might be trading one of our young pitchers for a position prospect.

And watch and enjoy the pitching staff. With another year of experience for them, they should only get better in 2008, unless some injury bugaboo hits them, Cain and Lincecum especially. Oh, and hope that we sign Lincecum to a contract that covers him for the rest of his pre-free agent years. I think Wilson will be up the whole year in 2008 and hopefully he can close, but if not, I think Walker or Hennessey can do an adequate job overall and just hold the fort until we do develop a closer internally.

And we will have a ton of young players. We have a lot of young players who will be 27 years old and younger in 2008: Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, Sanchez, Correia, Messenger, probably Brian Wilson, maybe Misch, maybe Threets; Frandsen, Schierholtz, Ortmeier, Davis, probably Lewis. And some who are not very young but not old either: Zito, Hennessey, maybe Taschner, maybe Chulk, and the backup catcher, Alfonzo or Rodriguez. So the team is changing its stripes and slowly becoming younger. But I think that's a pretty good job of getting young while also trying to win with Bonds around the past three seasons.

2008 might not be a winning season but I look forward to enjoying it, particularly the young pitchers. Hopefully you will too.