Trade Rumors: Giants Looking at Indians and White Sox

According to a recent rumor, the Giants were at an Indians/White Sox game scouting Jermaine Dye and Victor Martinez. I answered the V-Mart trade possibilities on Lefty, and here is basically what I wrote there:

I think V-Mart would require Posey or Bumgarner in the deal, ultimately. The Indians are not in a position of dumping guys just to get salary off their roster, they will only make a deal that gets them ready to battle in 2010, after all, they got Grady Sizemore still on the team. I don't think a package led by Alderson would do it for the Indians.

Look at last year's trade. About half a year of Sabathia (V-Mart has additional year), and the Brewers sent their #1 prospect, Matt LaPorta, plus #11 Bryson and #24 Brantley and Zach Jackson, who was #16 the year before. For comparison, the Giants equivalent would be #1 Bumgarner, #11 Waldis Joaquin (or they might want #13 Henry Sosa), #24 Matt Downs (or they might want #23 Thomas Neal), and last years #16 Nick Pereira (or this year's #15 Kevin Pucetas or #17 Travis Ishikawa).

Given their #1 prospect is a C, and looking over this list, plus fact that V-Mart is signed for another year, I think Bumgarner, Ishikawa (to replace V-Mart at 1B, platoon with Garko, perfect), Pucetas, and probably someone like Scott Barnes, would be what they are looking for in a package from us for V-Mart, based on what they got for Sabathia.

I know V-Mart is no Sabathia, but it's 1.5 years of low cost V-Mart vs. 0.5 years of CC, he plays both C and 1B, switch-hitter, might be able to sign him long term (Nero is agent, not Boras, not sure what that means), excellent hitter, hit same at home as on the road, power, he's in his prime, 30 this year.

Dye is a good hitter, but one must remember that he hits much better at home than on the road. In addition, he has played RF predominantly during his career, and his defense in RF is atrotious, costing 1.5 games per 150 games, a particularly bad trait to have with the Giants funky RF shape. Plus, then he would take away Schierholtz's only position, and put Winn in LF.

Giants Thoughts

Since Sabean and the Giants rarely give any information out, I think that the observers who saw the Giants at this game assumed that the Giants are looking only for a power hitter and then threw out the obvious names, like V-Mart and Dye. Neither fits because the Giants are not willing to trade what it would take to get V-Mart, and Dye don't fit our roster, though Sabean has always said that he would make the trade first, then figure out the ramifications later. And they could always play Dye in LF, but defense would be a problem there as well.

I think the Giants are looking instead for MI players, like Jhonny Peralta and Josh Barfield, who can play 2B. Barfield is extraneous to them now, a big bust of a trade, and they moved Peralta to 3B to play someone else at SS, plus Peralta will be a free agent, I think, at the end of next year. Barfield should not cost as much to get, but Peralta would be more likely to be good for us in 2009-2011 (contract has option to 2011, total of $14M over next 2.5 years) and hits for some power. He would probably cost us an Alderson, but not much more I think in top prospects, but probably would have to throw in another starter, Pucetas, Tanner. If Sadowski can keep on pitching well, they might take him.

In the ChiSox case, I would be interested in Wilson Betemit. Could play 2B, SS, 3B, totally wasted by Yankees and now ChiSox, had a lot of power playing in Atlanta and LA. Should not take much to take him off their hands and he's still young. They already have a nice SS in Ramirez plus Gordon Beckham could play the same positions as well and would take a starting position. Probably would take a mid-tier pitching prospect, I would think, Pucetas, Tanner, Martinez, Sadowski.

Kawakami's Off On Rios

ogc brief

Kawakami says be bold and trade Lincecum for Rios, because there's no better offer.

Just because there's no better offer doesn't make it a good offer.

Just because it's bold, doesn't make it a good move for the team.

There's no reason to hurry into such a deal, we are not competitive with or with Rios in 2008.

It's bolder to go against public opinion and to follow your vision, your plan.

Kawakami Riff on Rios

I'm a little late to the party on this - Grant on McCovey Chronicles did some pieces, like this one, on Tim Kawakami's blog rationale for getting Rios, see link on Grant's post - but I thought I would take issue with some of his statements that he made in the San Jose Mercury column he wrote.

Kawakami exhorts Sabean to do the daring bold move and trade Lincecum for Rios, harkening back to Sabean's earthshattering trade of Matt Williams for Jeff Kent et al which prompted the motto that will mark his tenure for most Giants fans, "I am not an idiot." He has no better option available via trade or free agency, so Sabean has to make this move, so says Kawakami. Then he says that Rios is a potential 30 HR hitter while Lincecum could break down physically.

Giants Thoughts

There's cautious and there's reckless. Just because a move is bold does not make it a good move. If anything, keeping Lincecum and making do with what we got would actually be a bolder move because it pretty much writes off 2008. I think the Giants underestimates the fans. Part of the reason fans didn't attend during the 70's and 80's was because there were not players who looked like they would be great, we had good players like John "the Count" Montefusco, Bill "Maddog" Madlock, Vida Blue, Jack Clark, Jose Uribe, but Cain and Lincecum are already good and has the potential to be great, barring injury and such.

In addition, the Williams-Kent trade was way different from this trade. With the Williams trade, we gave up an oft-injured old 3B and received a starting 2B, starting SS, a very promising starter/reliever, and a fungible starter/reliever. For Lincecum, all we would be getting is an OF who is just figuring things out at a position where we have a lot of prospects ready for a shot, including one who is arguably similar to Rios, except it is early Rios, before he figured out the power and the hitting, in Schierholtz. For a similar deal, we would get Rios plus a 3B (since we need one there) and a pitching prospect.

And where is Rios getting 30 HR? Rios was much below average his first two seasons in the majors. Plus, even today, his HR/FB is nothing extraordinary, so unless he cuts down his strikeouts drastically - and it is borderline good at that - or somehow boosts his flyball rate dramatically or somehow boost his HR rate dramatically, he's never going to touch 30 HR in a season.

Wrong Trade Comparison

Kawakami is also using the wrong trade as a comparison. Trading Lincecum for Rios is not like the Williams trade, it is more like the Accardo-Hillenbrand trade, where we traded away a pitcher before he had established his talents in return for a player that didn't make a big difference to the lineup.

A trade like this expresses the same impatience in team building as the Accardo trade, looking for a quicker fix to the offense. At least the Accardo trade was understandable, as we were close to first place at the time and needed just average 1B help (though ultimately he was just as bad as Niekro). Right now, trading for Rios won't make the offense even average by himself, it is just stemming the bleeding from the loss of Bonds, which is something Kawakami admits.

Relax

We are not in a 100 yard sprint, we are in a marathon. Sometimes the best move is no move. Particularly in this case, there is no compelling reason to hurry, no urgency to rebuilding the offense, unless you think the Giants can be competitive in 2008. A deal like this for a good RF/CF should still be available from someone should we decide to move Lincecum later in 2008, but a pitcher like Lincecum won't.

A deal like this is the easy way out, one where you cover your ass and say, "see I tried something." Those types of moves are rarely good overall or long term. And just because it is the best player we can get for Lincecum today does not make it a good deal for the Giants.

To win, I believe you need an overall strategy for the future and stick by it. That's bolder than following public opinion and the local critics. It's easy to say, "improve" the offense, trade the pitching. It's harder to have an overall philosophy, a plan that guides your player acquisition decisions, and to stick by that plan, while understanding you sometimes need to take a step back before taking two steps forward.

It's figuring out if the move is the right step back that will lead to two steps forward, or end up being more steps backward. A Rios deal for Lincecum would be the latter in my opinion, because at some point, you are going to say, we need a Lincecum-type to pair up with Cain. And you won't get one of those easily.

I Will Have Some of What Dave Is Smoking

I was listening to KNBR after lunchtime, driving home, and Fitz of Fitz and Brooks was on the air, talking with columnist Dave Del Grande, who I believe writes for the Contra Costa Times. Fitz asked what one move Dave would do if he were the Giants GM and he said that he would trade one of Cain or Lincecum to get two good bats to hit in the middle of the lineup for the Giants, because the offense needs that. He then gave an example, stating that we could trade Lincecum to the Rays for Delmon Young and either B.J. Upton or Carl Crawford.

I almost died laughing while driving my manual Civic on the freeway: fans always get pooh-poohed by the talk show hosts when they provide outrageous trades ("yeah, we could trade Pedro Feliz and Ryan Klesko AND Randy Winn and they will give us Johan Santana"), but Fitz didn't react at all to that outrageous trade. There is no way the Rays are giving up Young AND either Upton or Crawford. We probably could get one of them plus a nice but still developing prospect, but not what was suggested.

First Off, We Need a 3B

Plus, if we are going to trade for anyone, we are getting a 3B at minimum, in return. We have a good set of OF, both vets and prospects, so we don't need to pick up another, at least not until we traded off some of them to clear out space, else you are dealing from a position of weakness and the offers will be less than you could have gotten for them.

If we are giving up Lincecum, we should be getting Evan Longoria plus one of their MI/SS prospects coming up (they would want to keep Reid Brignac, so give us Ben Zobrist or Brendan Harris), plus a struggling formerly high prospect, like Joel Guzman, a former D-gers bonus baby (I think he got as much as Villalona got, but years ago) who had a lousy first season in AAA in 2007 (.689 OPS), can play 1B and 3B, lots of power potential but have only showed average power in the minors; he'll only be 23 for the 2008 season though, and/or Edwin Jackson, another former D-ger wunderkin gone bad.

Lincecum is a top talent so that's why we get Longoria in exchange, as he is a top talent too. But Ace pitchers are very hard to find and he has almost a full year of proven MLB experience while Longoria is good but still unproven (much like Kouzmanoff was good but unproven) so they have to give us Zobrist or Harris, one of two OK MI/SS prospects, not top line, but we only want an adequate replacement for Vizquel, plus a little high risk/high reward in Guzman and/or Jackson. I think that would be fair, though again I must state that I would not agree with Lincecum.

Proven is Better, He Sez

Dave also did the Sabean thing that fans and columnists deride and said that he chose to trade Lincecum because Cain is more proven. I will say right off that I don't know Dave's exact stance, but from my reading across the Bay Area, I don't think that there is one columnist around who thinks that Sabean should still be GM, or at least questions whether he's the right man for the job. And neither of them saw the irony that Dave was making his choice based on Cain's proven performance.

Much as I love Cain and think he's going to be an ace and the anchor of a rotation for years, I would keep Lincecum in a heartbeat if forced to chose between the two. Lincecum dominated the minors. Cain did nicely but struggled with his control while down there. Admittedly, Cain was a couple years younger than Lincecum when both were in the minors, but still, I think that Lincecum is the better pitcher, he just have better overall stuff, from what I have read and heard about the two of them.

Nyet: No Tradee LinceCain

Still, I cannot agree with trading either of them. Trading them is a similar to the dog trying to get the bone in the water, but ending up losing the bone in the water: you lose what you had before, trying to get something illusionary. We have a great situation with our pitching rotation with Cain and Lincecum in our rotation: two starters who can totally dominate the other team, both in keeping hits (and thus runners) down plus striking out a lot of batters.

It is idiocy to suggest that we trade off either one. If trading one of them would suddenly make our offense above average, then I would be for it, but even if we added Delmon Young and Carl Crawford to the team for Lincecum, we still have nothing at 3B (with the ugly thought that Feliz might return - <>) and 1B will be unproven, as well as 2B, with either Durham or Frandsen there, plus we will have an offensive sinkhole at SS again with the return of Omar Vizquel, who at age 41 for next season, can not be expected to have a rebound year, only players like Ted Williams can do that, and Omar, you are no Teddyball.

Omar Signing

Speaking of Omar, here is the official announcement of his signing. He is getting $5.0M in 2008 with a $5.2M team option for 2009 that vests to a contract under certain performance conditions (reportedly reaching 140 games played), else he gets a $0.3M buyout, making his total contract value $5.3M. The Giants are hoping that Emmanuel Burris or Brian Bocock ("their top shortstop prospects") will be ready to take over the SS position then.

Unfortunately, I read somewhere that Burris did not look good this season, and Bocock was not a top prospect last year, so it looks like of bleak going forward unless we can pick up a good SS prospect with our #5 draft pick in 2008. Don't know who is available though.

3B Is Next

In the press conference, Sabean noted that with Feliz going into free agency, he will concentrate on getting a 3B next, probably by trade. Surprisingly, Feliz has received "quite a bit of action" from teams seeking a third baseman, according to Sabes. In addition, apparently Feliz is looking for deal that could extend into a third year, which I interpreted to mean a 2 year contract with a 3rd year option.

Sabean then basically said that the Giants will not pursue Feliz "at this time" meaning that if they get desperate, they might re-open negotiations. Lets hope they don't get desperate. Though by that time, Feliz might be desperate too, and if the Giants really wanted to, they could start Aurilia at 3B, if push comes to shove.

He said that trade is the most probable avenue for getting a 3B. The article lists quite a number of 3B who might be available. The ones who seem most possible to me are Scott Rolen (feuding with manager, oft-injured, down year 2007, lots of $ for next 3 years), Troy Glaus (Toronto might want to clear out salary, play Russ Adams there instead and use money to get free agent), Akinori Iwamura (The Rays have the aforementioned Evan Longoria ready to move up; he could move to 2B, but they might want to play Harris there instead and flip Aki for prospects).

Ay, What About A-Rod?

The "A" word was mentioned (A-Rod) and the Giants appear to be taking the same stance as last year with Barry Zito: they will stay aside and observe what is happening, and reading between the lines, gauge whether A-Rod is truly interested or just using the Giants for leverage. The article noted that Sabean did not indicate his interest, but since it is known that Sabean and the Giants tried to initiate a trade with the Yankees for A-Rod a while back, I think it is pretty clear that the Giants (meaning ownership) are interested, but are waiting to see how the scrum gathering around A-Rod works out.

Lincecum Is Basically Unavailable, OK?

Lincecum was also brought up. While this writer noted that it was a qualified no-trade statement, I think it was pretty clear that Sabean is not looking to trade him, but, when you are one of the worse teams in baseball, you have to listen to every trade overture initiated by other teams for Lincecum. What Sabean said: "I am in no position to think that there's a trade out there that we would make to want to give up Lincecum. But when you finish 20 games below .500 and you're in last place, you have to listen."

So I think the author is being picky here. You never say never: if the Rays offered, say, Scott Kazmir, James Shield, Delmon Young, Carl Crawford, and Reid Brignac for Tim Lincecum, of course you trade Lincecum, but you also know that this trade would never happen in a million billion googol years. But for all intents and purposes, the Giants are not going to trade Lincecum unless they are overwhelmed.

People Don't Understand Management

That's what this writer and people I see posting on MCC always miss: Sabean cannot put everything out on the table as far as his intentions are because then the other side of the negotiating table will use that information against you. Sabean represents management, and you cannot go out there and say "Feliz is full of crap if he thinks he can get 3 years from someone", that's something you can do if you are anonymously posting your thoughts at your nearest blog.

When you do that, you can say whatever you want without consequence to yourself, so you get these "brave" souls who can rip you a new one with their rude and brutal comments, pretend that they didn't say something (they forget that the internet has a perfect memory), act like they know it all, and talk down to you like they are some high and mighty person.

You have to say something like what Sabean says when you are management, you never know when you are forced by circumstances to come back with hat in hand to try to sign the person you just disrepected openly. That will cost you, and you won't look good in the ownership's eye then.

As a public representative of the team, you are forced to say pabulum, give bland generic statements, because you don't want anything you say to come back to you, unless, that is, you decided once and for all on something, and then you can say "he's not coming back" with repercussions. I've made fun of that before, on MCC, but I know it's a dance that any public representative has to dance, that is, if you still want your job.