The Professor Gets Tenure: Giants Sign Crawford to 6 Year, $75M Contract

It has been reported by all the beat writers, which will be officially announced in news conference on Wednesday:

• Pavlovic
• Baggarly
• Schulman
• Haft

He gets a $1.2M bonus, then $5.8M in 2016, $8M in 2017, then $15M from 2018-2021, covering his second and third arbitration seasons, then four of his free agents years, covering him to age 34 season.  Now only Crawford and Posey are signed for the 2021 season, though I expect Bumgarner to join them within the next season or two.  He has a full no-trade clause and no option language.  

He and the team had briefly discussed an extension last spring, but the conversation never got serious.  However, that discussion began the process and then the talks picked up earlier this month, as the extension took a high priority for the front office.  And now they got this bit of business done before getting hot and heavy into the free agency market.

Your 2015 Giants: Second Half Thoughts

Given that this is often considered the halfway point for the season, I thought I would write about some current topics and thoughts on the second half, as well as playoff thoughts.

Your 2013 Giants: Done and Done

Wow, I knew that the season was reaching a crucial point, but did not see it crashing and burning so fast.  As Boof aptly commented on another post, the season appears to be done.  And the Giants appear to be acknowledging this by bringing up Brett Pill and Roger Kieschnick.

ogc thoughts

Everyone has their own milestone where they give up on the season.  But I prefer logic to have governance over that.  One of the great tools I've seen for managing a baseball season I learned from Dusty Baker (and I've seen references to other people using this tool, I'm only acknowledging my source) during one of his interviews long ago.

One Game A Week, That's All He Asks

Basically, the rule is to make up one game in the standings per week.  One of the best project management tips I have ever heard for breaking down a much larger project into an easily comprehended and calculated metric.  That helps players get out from under a huge deficit in the standings and be able to take a breath and not be as nervous/pressurized about where the team is in the standings.

However, the flipside of that is if you are more games behind than weeks left in the season, then your team is in a pretty bad position in competing for the division title.  And the Giants just passed that this past week, as they are now 10 games back (oops, 11 games...)  and there are only 8 weeks (roughly) left in the season.  While I never give up final hope until September and this rule is in effect, for me, now that we are behind by that much, looking ahead to next season while trying to be competitive should now be the focus.

I have seen a lot of people say that it has been over for a while - one in fact asked me to apologize for saying that the Giants still had a chance - so the above is the reasoning I use for guiding following my team.   There is no apology forthcoming.

Frankly, some of them are those I've seen before who said the team had no chance in 2010 and 2012, that the season was over, further, are people I've seen in late 2000's decade saying that the Giants were done and going nowhere, and they were clearly wrong, so why would I listen to them now?  And some were very rude to me but I've never gotten an apology nor do I expect one from people who are so delusional to think that people like me would now listen to what they are spouting off now about the Giants when they have been mostly wrong for the past six or more years about the Giants direction.  Just because they think the sky is falling and it actually does one time does not make them futuristic savants whose latest missives I should heed.

Not that you should heed my missives either, I wholeheartedly believe in sharing what information I know so that if I'm as delusional as others, I get pulled back from the ledge as well.  I think I've been in a good spot, the Giants weren't doing well, but there were some signs of improvement that I pointed out as positives for the future - and for all the Naysayers saying they called it, not all of you did because the pitching this last weekend was amazing and some of you thought they were done - that did not work out as I thought they might.  It happens.

I still have some hope of the Giants getting back into contention for the same reasons I thought that they still had a chance.  But we are so far back that we need to start at least figuring out some things for next season. 

Looking Forward

Lots of things happening, lots of things to consider.  Here are the ones I can remember:

• Heston was DFAed and resigned with us, he's in AAA
• Hunter Strickland was DFAed and still has a few more days before we find out what happens with him, but given he has been out since early April, I don't see any team dropping someone on their 40 man to pick up a still injured player.
• Petit was surprisingly (to me) DFAed after his nice relief outing for us, so Shankbone's observation that Petit didn't have that great of stuff in spring training seems to be the best explanation of that move.
• The Giants picked up Guillermo Moscosco from the Cubs for cash or a player to be named later, which is why the Giants dropped Petit.   
• Giants activated Arias and optioned Dunning, who did a great job for us, to Fresno.
• Brian Wilson had a nice session in front of MLB teams and a handful, including the Giants, are interested in his services and are serious contenders.  Still don't know if he's mad at the Giants enough to not sign with them - it seemed like he had burned that bridge already though - or if he's cooled down enough to be open to it.  However, a retweet by John Shea of a Tim Brown tweet noted that Wilson signed with Dodgers.  Hard to tell if that was a big middle finger to Giants or just the Dodgers love for ex-Giants (Colletti) and/or big stack of cash they have burning in their pockets.  Part of me was wishing he would return, but the poor homestand put the kibosh on that, he didn't work as hard as he did to return only to pitch for a non-contender.
• Vogie still appears to be on track to return sometime in the first half of August. 
• Abreu was placed on the 15 day DL while Tanaka was optioned to Fresno. 
• Pill and Kieschnick were both called up,meaning Arias is the only backup MI.

Given that Belt has been struggling now for about a month, I would think that Pill will be platooning with him at 1B to give Pill some playing time.  I assume that Francoeur's and Tanaka's struggles with the bat is part of the impetus to calling up Kieschnick, but he earned his call-up by hitting really well recently, basically in July, and getting his strikeout rate down significantly, enough that it is almost good.  Roger was pretty bad in June and probably hence why Sabean said that he was not close last month.  Maybe Roger will start platooning with Francoeur in LF, it is interesting that the Giants kept Francoeur around given how poorly he's been hitting (part of it is that he's been having bad BABIP luck, he has a good contact rate with us right now, just not the batting line to reflect that; but his BABIP has not been good the past two years, perhaps that's not part of his skill set anymore, still, his contact rate has been great, maybe the Giants helped him tweak something, remember, players joining Bochy teams tend to add a win - altogether - per season).  That may have to do with the Pence trade possibility.

The beats say that the Giants are not looking to trade anyone specifically but are at the point where they have to listen to deals and see what they can get.  Sabean has already pointed out that Lincecum and Pence will get qualifying offers, which means that they get picks, and that sets the minimum bar for what the Giants would want for them.  Sounds like the Giants are unlikely to trade Lincecum however, while Pence is available for the right price, but the Giants appear to still want to resign Pence.

Rumors include:

• Belt to Astros for Bud Norris (mere speculation, I think, due to Pill call-up)
• At minimum, the Giants were "hard in"  on Norris previously, so that is something to note.  And the Astros are looking for at least a top prospect, so that means, for the Giants, starting with Crick probably, maybe Blackburn would be OK too, to start.
• Lopez for prospects (more speculation since he's valuable to contender and a free agent after the season).
• Reportedly, Reds are interested in Pence, as well as the Yankees, Rangers and Pirates. 
• Scutaro has also been subject to speculation as well among fans, due to his age and contract.

I have not really cared for many of the trade suggestions/rumors.  I expect the Giants to compete in 2014 and trading away Lincecum, Pence, or even Belt would diminish our chances greatly, I believe.  That's because I still believe in Lincecum and Pence, and hope the Giants resign them.

Not that I think that they will be bargains either, I expect to overpay some.  In Lincecum's case, we just don't know what we are going to get.  I don't expect him to get any deal over $15M per season, and when it's that close to the qualifying offer, I don't see why the Giants won't just offer around that much if he turns down the QO and why he won't resign in hopes of rebuilding his free agent value with the team for one more season.  Meanwhile, I'm hoping he makes the transition in 2014 to pitcher from thrower, or if not, transition to a super utility reliever who pitches as short or as long and as often as he feels like it.  I'm willing to overpay 2014 in case he's that close, and I think he is.  If 2014 is another bad year, then I'll be willing to let him go.

Pence I think is way overpriced.  Not that great defensively, and really, his offense isn't THAT great, though good.  But the Giants offense cannot get any worse without hurting our chances in 2014 and frankly I doubt there is anyone out on the market that we can get equivalent production for cheaper cost.  So I'm willing to overpay to $13-15M per year for him for 3-4 seasons to retain his offensive production.

Belt I still believe in.  I understand some are frustrated, but just look at Matt Williams' arc, he took three seasons to figure things out, before busting out in his fourth season, so I would rather keep Belt to see if he can do that, he's actually hit much better than Matt did in their early seasons.  When there is the potential for a Votto-like player, I think you just have to be patient with him.  But Norris is pretty good too, so I would probably do that trade if it were available, but I have to think that they would want younger prospects for Norris.

Same with Sandoval.  I understand why some want to trade him (particular Shankbone), but guys who are potential 900+ OPS hitters don't grow on trees and while an offense with Posey, Pence, Belt is good, it would that much better with Sandoval.  I will put up with him and be OK with getting a draft pick for him when he leaves, that's too much risk to go long-term with him without a clause on his weight.

The two I am OK with trading are Scutaro and Lopez.  Scutaro the Giants really only wanted for two seasons, and he's hitting well, so if someone wants to overpay for him, great, take the deal, but it is only for so-so prospects, then that's OK, I would keep him.

Lopez makes the most sense.  He's a free agent and Mijares has done very well for us, so we have a ready replacement already.  Some are hoping for a bonanza like the A's got with Reddick, but really, that was just a fluke, like the Mets trading Kazmir, you have to be in the right time, right place, right players, right desperation/stupidity.  You don't hope to get such deals, you just fall into them.

Still, a shutdown lefty reliever like him was shown to be very valuable during the playoffs in 2010 and 2012, and a team might be willing to overpay some to get him.  He's the only one I would push to trade and do it for the best offer out there.  That would also free up space for one of our AAA relievers to come up and see what he's got.

With Moscosco in tow now, the Giants now have Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong, Gaudin, and Moscosco as the 2014 starting rotation, not great but not too bad either.  The Giants can now enter into negotiations with Lincecum wanting him to return, but not needing him to return. 

Nate Not So Great: But I Still Like Him

I had been out on vacation and was going to write one big post to cover all my thoughts, but my work is crazy good right now, so I'll bite off one at a time.

Nate Schierholtz made news lately by complaining in an interview with Hank Schulman that he's not satisfied with the amount of playing time he's been getting and that he would welcome a trade.  He said that if he's not their guy, then maybe he should move on.

He didn't back off of it yesterday but gave a more team oriented comment instead.  Schulman noted in his blog that it was clear that the team  informed him that he appeared selfish with his original statements.

Giants Thoughts

First off, I don't really think that Nate is going anywhere.  The Giants love defense, or specifically, Sabean has loved defense since he first became GM.  He might have to hornshoe in guys with poor defense, to accommodate roster and budget realities, but mostly, in his comments over the years, it's clear he prefers good defensive players.  Nate is a virtuoso in RF.

The main reason I think he is going nowhere is because I see another round of competition for playing time in the OF in 2013.  There is almost no way the Giants sign both Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan, due to all the money devoted to the pitching, and most likely Melky will be signed, the question is how much (one item I wanted to cover).  Plus not much money for free agents, I don't think.

That means Melky got LF most probably, and Gregor Blanco will be the presumptive starting CF (perhaps in platoon with Justin Christian), and then Nate in RF, as nobody in Fresno is knocking down the door for the RF starting spot.  Francisco Peguero and Chris Dominguez isn't doing much there, and Roger Kieschnick, who put himself into position to challenge, got injured again, so who knows what he can do for us next season.  Plus maybe a journeyman OF, like Torres and Blanco before him.

Nate is just too valuable, as well as cheap, to trade away, unless another team really thinks he's as good as he think he is, and gives up more to the Giants in terms of a RF starter, who they can control for multiple years.  If teams really felt that way about him, then an offer like that might have happened before, and if that offer had ever been done, I would think the Giants would have gone for it, Nate has always been a tweener in terms of prospect potential, showing enough to warrant interest and continued opportunities, but never breaking out enough to hold the starting job.  However, the only type of trade I can see Schierholtz being a part of is one where both teams are giving up on a prospect, and seeing if they can do something with our castoff, like when we traded Salomon Torres for Shawn Estes, or Yorvit Torrealba and Jesse Foppert for Randy Winn..

A major league starter needs to be consistently good, or rather, not consistently really bad.  Nate has been great over up to a month's period of time.  If he hit like that all the time, he would be a star in the MLB and not needing to do such interviews.  Heck, if he could at least be replacement level during his down time, then the Giants could live with that.  But he's typically not and the Giants are forced to go elsewhere for RF starting.

That he didn't understand why he sat down for so long shows that he was being myopic and selfish.   Blanco had a monster May, much like the ones Nate puts out.  Like Nate, when he cooled off, he got the benefit of the doubt - if you go over Nate's usage patterns in the past, the Giants would give him chance after chance after his nice surge, but eventually had to go to another player as Nate was just cold.  Now that his cool off period has ran too long, plus Pagan is having a long cold period, Nate is getting his opportunities.

Bochy, contrary to popular opinion, likes static lineups, where he can write in the same names every day.  However, if a guy isn't hitting, he's going to mix and match.  If Nate had paid any attention the past few years, he would have seen that and realize that Bochy would probably start using him more again after the All-Star break.  He just needed to be patient.

The Giants believe in him, else he wouldn't still be around, unlike Lewis, Frandsen, Bowker, Linden (OK, he came back, but he was gone for a while).  He needs to realize that a MLB hitter can't be cold for an extended period and not get put on notice.  Bochy wants to win, and now.  I like that about him, and that is what changed my mind about him in 2010 down the stretch, you need a manager with that killer attitude to bring in the hardware, which he did in 2010.

This bit of hot hitting will get Nate some more opportunities.  Don't blow them Nate and you will have RF sewn up and Pagan and Blanco would end up sharing CF playing time.  I still believe in his abilities, but this lava hot and arctic cold can't continue if he hopes to start.  I think Bochy told him he wasn't starter's material to rile him up and get him motivated to get to this consistency level he needs to be a starter.  The Giants appear to be reaching the end of their string in terms of Nate as a starter, but he's still very valuable as a 4th OF because he can take over if there is any injury or cold stretch without much downside in production, so I don't see him going anywhere, unless the Giants get a very good deal.

Giants Reportedly Trade for Carlos Beltran

The rumored news is that the Giants have traded for Carlos Beltran, sending Zack Wheeler to the Mets.  Out of his $6M remaining on the contract, the Giants will get a reported $4M from the Mets and pay the remaining $2M.  Because Beltran is a 10-5 player, he gets 24 hours to reflect on the trade, but reportedly will approve it, according to a report by Tim Brown of Yahoo.
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Bill Hall, Giants Ball

There were two explanatory articles about Bill Hall's revelation with Bam Bam Muelens, one by Andy Baggarly and the other by Hank Schulman.

Here is what Baggarly noted:

Hall was pretty pumped up over his two-hit game, including one of the louder connections I’ve heard off the bat by a Giant this season. Of his double in the ninth inning (also off Putz), he said he “got a fastball and put a swing I hadn’t put on a ball in a long time.”

There are a few Hall quotes in the game story about the changes that he and Hensley “Bam Bam” Meulens made in the cage. I’d expound, but this is already becoming a pretty long post. So I’ll save the hitting clinic for later.

I don’t know Hall very well, so I can’t tell you if he’s prone to hyperbole. But he seemed legitimately excited that he found something major, and that it could portend very, very good things in the months ahead.

For now, there’s no doubting it: That contact in the ninth inning was loud, indeed.

Baggarly also noted this in his game article:

Hall felt a difference. He said he worked with hitting coach Hensley Meulens for 30 minutes and "found something I'd lost for three years." Using his legs more and keeping his head still at the plate, Hall hit a loud double to dead center in his final at-bat.

"I'm 31 years old. I know my talent didn't leave me overnight," Hall said. "I can still hit a ball hard. It felt like how I was in '05 or '06, when I had my best years."

Here is what Schulman noted:

It'll be interesting to see who plays second base tonight for the Giants. I'm guessing Emmanuel Burriss will return against the right-hander, but tonight was big for the newest Giant, Bill Hall.

Anyone weekend duffer who ever found that one little thing that made his or her golf ball finally fly straight will understand why Hall was so excited after tonight's game.

Hall, who has not been a good hitter for a long time, gave the Giants a 3-2 lead with a sixth-inning single then launched the Giants' ninth-inning insurance rally against closer J.J. Putz when he doubled over center fielder Chris Young's head, which is not easy to do.

"I haven't put that swing on a baseball for a long time," Hall said.

He credited batting coach Hensley Meulens with helping him discover a flaw in his stance. As Hall put it excitedly, "I've been searching for three years. Thirty minutes with Bam Bam and I found something. We went in the cage and it clicked automatically."

Hall explained he was not using enough leg in his drive toward the ball. As a result, his upper body was very "noisy" and his head moved a lot. That makes it tough to focus on the ball coming toward the plate. (The staff feels that a bobbing head has been a big part of Aaron Rowand's troubles, too).

Now, nobody believes Hall is going to become an All-Star because of one session in the cage, not even the second baseman himself. But he really feels he can work off this to improve.

"I'm 31 years old," he said. "My talent didn't leave me overnight."

Giants Thoughts

OK, Bill Hall says he's been searching for three years for his power, what he's "been searching for three years" for.  However, when his numbers started going down was in 2007, four years ago, when he hit .254/.315/.425/.740, when he was age 27, after hitting .273/.345/.553/.899 the year before at age 26.  There are some studies that find that players peak around age 26-27-28; it is the good players who can sustain that peak into their 30's.

Though, to be fair, his ISO was still pretty good in 2007-8, roughly 170, and had been worse since, except for a up-blip in Boston in 2010, but that was flukey in that he was horrible against LHP while killing RHP:  his career splits are the normal hit LHP better than RHP.  And his BABIP took a clear drop in 2008 and has been mostly down since (except for 2010).

However, his batting skills appear to have stayed intact even during his travails.  His strikeout rate has been basically in the same range since his glory years in 2005-2006, as has his walk rate, so his BB/K ratio has been about the same as well, with 2009 as a bad outlier, mainly because he did horribly after being traded to the Mariners.  His peak 2006 season was lucky in that his HR/FB was much higher than the norm for his career, but it has been similar since, with the up-blip in 2010 with Boston.

Where he clearly went down was in XBH%, which went down significantly in 2007 and has been around the same range since, even in 2010.  However, his X/H% has been about the same for his career, which means that while he makes less contact for XBH per PA, when he does connect, he gets around the same XBH, so the strength is still there, but his technique results in less contact overall for hits, though his strikeout rate is about the same.  So clearly, he has had an issue with hitting the ball hard since 2007, which resulted in a lower XBH% and BABIP since then.

Hall Be Back

Right now, I guess I would be very happy with .740 OPS, as that would replace much of Freddy Sanchez's offense, though I doubt Hall's defense is even close.  That is where Burriss comes in, they can platoon, much like Burrell and Schierholtz last season, getting Hall's offense in first half of game and Burriss's defense in second half.  Though according to the Fielding Bible, he was slightly above average as a 3B (and he was a SS before), so one would think he would be OK playing 2B defensively and not be as bad as Burrell was in LF (though to be fair, Pat's defensive numbers actually were pretty good with the Giants)

Based on my analysis above, what he says appear to be true, he lost his hitting mojo 3-4 years ago, resulting in less BABIP and power.  And that can be seen from his LD%, he was above average by a lot early in his career, roughly 23%, during his good years, but since then it has been basically around league average, which is 19%.

If he is as fixed as he says he is, that would be huge for the offense.  Assuming Hall can revert to his .800+ OPS years (2005-2006), then this would be a find for 2011 similar to the Giants picking up Pat Burrell last season.  And would help to make up for the loss of Posey's bat from the lineup.

Catching Trades Rumors

The rumor that is circulating is that the Giants inquired with Texas regarding Teagarden, but Baggarly states that is wrong, they actually wanted to get Yorvit Torrealba (again!), but the deal got hung up on the Rangers wanting the Giants to pay the $3.25M contract that Yorvit has for 2012 season plus they wanted Santiago Casilla as well in the deal.  It was also noted that the Giants firmly said that Posey WILL be back in 2012, so there is no need for Yorvit from the Giants standpoint in 2012.

Of course, the Giants might change their tune depending on how Whiteside/Stewart tandem works out as we get closer to the trade deadline.  As DrB noted in the comments on prior post, Whiteside has started hitting recently.  In a five game stretch, he has gone 6-for-16, hitting line of  .375/.444/.563/1.007, with double and (amazingly) triple, though apparently he is an OK runner once he gets moving, he says.  His strikeout rate is about the same as before - not so great, 22% - but his walks are up, though I would bet some of them are to get to the pitcher.  Yep, 2 of them, but that still leaves him higher than before.

Still, for a player who has not played much before this season, everything is small samples.  What he has shown previously in 2009-10 is that he is roughly a .600's OPS hitter, hits for low batting average, don't take too many walks, don't hit for much power, though he did better last season.  The hope is that he can maintain his OPS closer to his 2010 .696 OPS and not his 2009 .607 OPS.  He was very low until this hit streak, and now sits at .211/.305/.324/.629 OPS.  Average NL catcher hitting .250/.326/.386/.713 this season.  If he can keep it close to his 2010 numbers, that would work well, as the average #8 hitter in NL is hitting .243/.314/.350/.664.

And, as Sabean noted with the Molina signing, he knew he was going to trade Molina at some point in 2010, so who is to say he can't do the same with Yorvit this coming off-season, if they do make the trade?  They could make the trade with someone who needs a cheap experienced starting catcher.

And really, would it be so bad to have an expensive backup catcher in 2012?  That is what Yorvit has mainly been in his career.  This would also open up starting Posey at 1B against LHP and sitting Huff, who has not hit LHP well during his career (though good enough to play regularly), and thus starting Yorvit.  Might want to give Posey some rest (relatively) playing 1B as his leg probably will still not be 100% in 2012, and might never be 100% again, for all we know at this point.

Your 2010 Giants are 56-43: Keep It Going Against the Marlins

Wow, what a road trip, what a road sweep!  The Giants were 3 runs from sweeping the whole road trip!  But we are close to losing a number of games as well, in fact, the D-gers series could very well have been a losing series given how the second game in that series went.

Furthermore, we must remain cognizant that the gauntlet has just because, the travel just begun.  The road will be arduous, as the Giants still have 35 games over the next 38 days, with series against the D-gers, D-Rox, 'Dres, Braves, Phillies, Cards, Reds.  Then right after that, an even MORE important stretch, playing 6 games against LA, 4 games vs. SD by Sept. 16th, 13 games in total in 14 days.  In total, 44 of the last 63 games will be played against teams with over .500 records.  These are the long days of the pennant stretch with every few days of rest, but at least we are still in the hunt.

Still, great month so far.  And as Baggarly noted in his blog, the Giants need to go 4-2 the rest of the month of July to have their first 20-game win month since September 2000.  And that includes all the playoff teams we had with Bonds early in the decade.  This is the best winning streak this season, even better than the stretch they had after adding Posey to the lineup, from May 27 to June 14, when they went 13-5 in 18 games.

Now we get four games against the Marlins, a team that has struggled to reach and stay at .500 this season.  However, much as I described Colorado's dependence on Ubaldo, they are very reliant on Josh Johnson, their ace, who has taken it to another like Ubaldo, except that unlike Ubaldo, he has shown no signs of regressing back to his prior level of excellence and is still delivering once in a generation type ERA.

His ERA is 1.61 (Ubaldo has ballooned since I discussed his probable regression), and has continued to drop since his first two starts of the season where nothing really clicked, but once it did, he has allowed 3 ER in a start ONCE in the last 18 starts.  Still, the Marlins have only been 13-7 in his starts, losing four starts where he gave up 2 runs or less, three of them within his last seven starts.  And lucky us, we get to face him this series, payback for missing aces in prior series.

In any case, Matt Cain drew the short straw and will be facing him, and that will make the series tough to win for that reason, we will need Cain to have his A-game going, if we are to have any chance of winning that game.

Game 1:  Ricky Nolasco vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  Nolasco reached a milestone in his last start, collecting his 50th career win, making him second all-time in Marlins history. He gave up two runs in eight innings while striking out eight against the Rockies. He suffered a loss to the Giants in Miami on May 6.

Giants:  The Giants own a 12-8 record in Zito's starts. They've been particularly fortunate in his six career starts against Florida, winning each game. Typically a strong second-half pitcher, Zito has recorded a 1.17 ERA in his two starts since the All-Star break.

Nolasco has been a good starter in his career, so this will be a tough game for the Giants.  However, his ERA for the season is 4.50, as he has had a tough season, despite walking so few and striking out a lot relative to that, and his BABIP is not that bad, though a tad high, not enough to explain why his ERA is so high.  His problem has always been giving up the homerun ball, and that has cost him apparently, as he is showing that his 2009 is the season that is more his talent level, and not 2008.  But he does pitch better on the road, with a 4.18 ERA this season, and he shut them out in his one start in AT&T in 2008, again, a season that appears to be a fluke plus our lineup is much different now..

Zito has a great history against the Marlins and a great history in the second half of the season, after the All-Star break, plus has been great so far.  Have to give this to Zito, for as good as Nolasco has been previously, I think all the factors point to a Giants win for this game, a good way to start any series.

Game 2:  Josh Johnson vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  Thirteen and counting. JJ is riding a string of 13 straight starts without allowing more than two runs. He has given up one run in 12 1/3 innings since the break, but he comes off a no-decision, in which he allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings to the Rockies, fanning 11.

Giants:  Cain's coming off an impressive performance at Arizona, where he allowed three hits in eight shutout innings. His nine strikeouts matched a season high. Cain is 5-3 with a 2.63 ERA at home, compared with 3-5, 3.50 on the road.

As I noted above, the Giants will have their hands full against Johnson.  Luckily, the Marlins offense has been as bad in supporting their ace as the Giants been in supporting their great starters.  Similarly, it has either been an avalanche of runs (6 starts with 7 or more runs; 3 of them 10 runs or more) or nothing much (10 starts with 3 or less runs; 7 of them 2 runs or less), which is why they are only 13-7 in his starts.  

With Cain going, it should be another tough game for Johnson again, but given that Cain has had a - still great - 2.63 at home, while Johnson has had a 2.70 ERA previously in AT&T, but yet those were in seasons before his breakout this season, and now his road ERA is 2.00 this season, vs. 3.07 for his career, clearly Johnson has taken a big step forward this season.  I have to give Johnson the win for this start, particularly since Matty seems to have bad luck regarding the Giants offense supporting him.

Game 3:  Alex Sanabia vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  If his first three big league starts are any indictation, Sanabia has the ability to pitch out of trouble. He has an 0.69 ERA in those games. His WHIP is 1.69 as a starter. He's given up 16 hits, walked six and hit a batter in 13 innings.

Giants:  Sanchez experienced a bizarre five-inning outing at Arizona last Friday. He continually pitched from the stretch, resulting from four hits allowed and five walks, but struck out 10 and yielded only one run.

Sanabia has been great this season.  But he has not been that great in the minors previously, this is his first good season ever, really, he appears to be very lucky this season.  Still, that does not mean that it won't continue against the Giants, he could have finally figured out that pitch he needs to succeed in the majors and is using it to good effect so far.  However, there is a huge anomaly in that he found it relatively hard to strike out AA hitters this season while striking out major leaguers relatively easily, which should reveal itself at some point in the majors, unless he literally figured out this new pitch within the last month.  But based on his minor league splits (you'll have to input his name if you click the link), if anything, AA hitters were figuring him out, his ERA was still low but his K/9 was dropping each month.

Sanchez has a 3.00 ERA at home this season, and Whiteside just seems to do magic working with Sanchez, as Jonathan's ERA is so low with Whiteside while way high with anyone else, including Posey so far in admittedly two starts, but still 2.69 with Whiteside for his career, 5.59 with Posey, so his best chance of winning is with Whiteside catching, clearly.  He has never pitched against the Marlins at home.

So this game is a coin flip, at best.  Sanabia has been doing very well but he's still relatively new to this and he was so bad previously in the minors that Baseball America did not even include him in their list of RHP starters for Florida's 2010 top prospects list, let alone rank him in their Top 30.  Again, that does not mean he is not the real deal now, but just that he will have to prove himself in each and every start.  

But there are warning signs that he's been lucky so far.  Apparently, his high strikeouts is because of his relief work this season, his strikeout rate is much lower as a starter.  And his GB/FB ratio is 0.63, indicating a lot of flyballs, and yet his X/H% is a low 5%.  

But that might be because he has a high infield fly rate of 17%, which is Zito's average for his career, so that is a very good rate and most probably the main reason for his success this season.  But clearly, this is something new for him relative to the rest of his career, so he will have to prove that he can keep this up.  Zito was that good early in his career, then was much lower for six seasons, before getting it back up high again this season.  

I think a coin flip is the most fair way to assess this game.  It does not look good because Sanabia has been on a tear since becoming a starter for the Marlins, and yet, Sanchez has pitched pretty well himself on occasion, particularly with Whiteside starting at C, so our best chance of winning will be with Whiteside starting at C and Posey starting at 1B, which will cost Ishikawa a start as the starter is a RHP, but with Posey hitting the way he is, you can't sit him much.

Game 4:  Anibal Sanchez vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

Marlins:  Sanchez was in line for his eighth win when he took the mound last Saturday. But after a three-run lead disappeared, he was not involved in the decision. The team is closely watching his innings pitched. He has 115 1/3 right now after throwing 86 a year ago.

Giants:  This will be Bumgarner's first start at home since June 26, when he made his season debut for the Giants in an Interleague affair against Boston. Since then, Bumgarner has recorded a 1.87 ERA in five road starts, winning the past four in a row.

Sanchez is the second best starter in the Marlin's rotation.  They forgot to note that he also had 26 innings in the minors in 2009 as well, so he's roughly at the workload he had last season, but still in a gray area in terms of usage, as to when he would tire, so they might pull him sooner than later, putting us into their bullpen sooner, which should be the goal for this series as the bullpen's ERA is 4.43.  His numbers are better than his peripherals, but he's been much worse on the road this season, 4.75 ERA.  He pitched OK against the Giants earlier this season at home, 6 IP, gave up 5 hits and 1 walk, struck out 3, gave up 3 runs with 2 earned, but now face them in AT&T, where they have one of the best home records, so he'll have a tougher battle here in SF.  

Meanwhile, Bumgarner has been pretty good overall and very good during the surge, all on the road.  Now he returns to home cooking, which should also portend another good start.  He could also be tiring soon as well, but he has pitched great so far for the Giants.  Should be a Giants win.

Giants Thoughts

Exciting times to be a Giants fan.  With their 15-3 surge, they are now only 3 games behind San Diego and took lead for the wild card spot, and in fact has a 1.5 game lead there now.  The D-gers are 3 games behind us and D-Rox 4.5 games behind us, which, while not a secure lead, nonetheless, we were behind both of them coming out of the All-Star break, 

The offense has led the way with Buster Posey leading the way.  The offense has averaged 5.7 runs since the surge began, and 4.5 runs since the All-Star break.  While Huff has been our stud most of the season - Baseball-Reference.com's front page shows Huff as 4th in NL in WAR overall, just behind A-Gon - Posey has been on an absolute tear in July, batting .469/.511/.815/1.326, 7 HR in 81 AB, with an 18 game hit streak, which is now the second longest in SF Giants history for rookies, behind only Willie McCovey's 22 game hit streak and just passing Orlando Cepeda's 17 game hit streak.

Posey has been incredible.  He has three 4-hit games in July and 12 multi-hit games.  His only oh-fer in July was on July 3rd.  I just watched the video showing him in yesterday's 4-hit game, and as Kruk and Kuip were marveling in it, he was just putting a hitting clinic in that game.  He has a beautiful stroke.  And he might not only win the Rookie-of-the-Month award, he might just get the regular one as well.  And his hitting has to have put his name up there with Jason Heyward and other contenders for the Rookie-of-the-Year Award, which he normally would have no chance for, given how late he was brought up, but given his significance during this Giants surge, he ought to be on the radar now for voters.

Not that the pitching hasn't been it's usual great way.  The pitching had a 2.61 ERA in the 18-game surge, and taking the cue from the offense's explosion at the beginning of the month, it took a step up and had a 2.34 ERA since the All-Star break, which countered the drop in offensive production and continued the winning.  And mirroring the lead by young Posey, Madison Bumgarner, who has been great since joining the rotation with a 2.43 ERA overall, has been great during the surge, with a 1.35 ERA, 4-0 record, 26.1 IP, giving up only 21 hits and 8 walks, while striking out 21.  

NL West View

But while this is all great, the 'Dres have been annoyingly good during the surge.  They are 9-6 since July 5th, with their offense finally turning on and scoring a lot of runs, 6.0 to be exact, even higher than the Giants, and 7-2 since the All-Star break.  The Giants could only gain one game on them with their 9-2 record since the break.

One thing that should work in our favor for the rest of the season is that San Diego has played 5 less games on the road than the Giants have while the Giants have played 3 less home games.  That should get us at least one game closer in the standings, if not two.  And given that the Giants are playing much better with Posey in the lineup starting as C, we should be right in the hunt with them fighting for the NL West division title for the rest of the season.  

However, San Diego passed their first test on the road well, going 4-2 against the Braves and Pirates over the past week.  They are back home but still have 17 of their next 26 on the road, including 4 games in LA and 3 games in SF.  Unfortunately, they also have 6 games against AZ and Pittsburgh, so there will be some easy games as well.  The Pirates could not even pull off one win, which would have put the 'Dres at .500 with 3-3, they were swept by SD.

I think the other teams will continue to struggle.  LA will probably continue to fall, as they struggle to find a 5th starter and Manny continues to spend time on the DL.  They have also played 7 more home games and 7 less road games than we have, so the Giants should put further distance between them and the D-gers due to that as well.

Colorado should have Tulowitski coming back soon, and they have traditionally been a second half team, so those are good things for them, but Ubaldo has finally hit the wall of regression to the mean:  after a 1.15 ERA into late June, over a span of 6 starts, he has had an ERA of 7.64 since June 23, with only one start where he allowed less than 4 runs.  Still, D-Rox are a strong offensive team and scored enough runs that he was 3-3 in that very bad streak.  And Colorado is searching for both a 4th and 5th starter who can hold their own against a strong pitching rotation.  

Giants Are New and Improve Compare to Before

And people need to remember that this is a different Giants team now versus before, so they cannot judge them against how they were in April or even May.  Posey and Bumgarner are two key differences, obviously, in making that happen, but also because it has allowed other players opportunities to shine, particularly Travis Ishikawa.  Once he started getting starts, he has hit .360/.389/.460/.849 with 1 HR in 50 AB, but more importantly, only 7 SO, plus 3 walks, in 20 games but 12 starts.  He has 14 RBIs in his nice streak.

Also importantly, Andres Torres has been hot atop the order.  In 20 games, 18 starts, he hit .278/.345/.633/.978 with 6 HR in 79 AB in July.  He still had 21 strikeouts, so that's not good, but with all those homers, that helps mitigate that, and allowed him to drive in 16 runs during the month.  That helped counter a further slumping Freddy Sanchez, who was killing us in the two-spot until Bochy dropped him lower and put Renteria up there.  

And, of course, our starting pitching rotation has continued to be superb.  No one to really highlight beyond Bumgarner, because they all have been doing that great on an overall basis, helped out by the bullpen, of course.  This is the wonders of having a great rotation, top to bottom, that I've been preaching about for years now.  

With Bumgarner's ascension, the rotation is complete, though, as El Lefty Malo noted a while back, who knows how much longer we will have Madison in the rotation this season, given his youth and lack of innings pitched previously in a full season.  Bumgarner says that he's strong enough to go 200 innings, and the Giants have said that they will play it by ear with him, they will not necessarily cap his innings pitched, but rather play it game to game and see where his body is at, which I prefer anyway over an arbitrary number of innings pitched.  

Still, the odds are that, at least for this season, we will probably see Wellemeyer taking Bumgarner's spot in the rotation at some point (most probably home since Wellemeyer has only pitched well in SF for us so far).  I still like my 6 man rotation idea, as that helps relieve some load off all our young starters, but right now the Giants look to maximize their chances in the playoffs, which probably means that Bumgarner will occasionally miss a home start to Wellemeyer and see some time in the bullpen at some point.

Angel's Take D-Backs

Have to take note here on Arizona trading away Dan Haren to the Angels:  I think they got took in the deal, like they did the deal more to save money than to get talent back, which is good because that means that they are probably re-building for the next 3-5 years, and we won't have to worry about them battling for the title.  Seems that way with this trade for a some now and some later.

Joe Saunders is the established vet in the deal, he replaces Haren in the rotation as a decent replacement, but he's even older than Haren.  They also got Rafael Rodriguez (unrated by Baseball America), a reliever who has been pitching on and mostly off for the Angels the past two seasons, and Patrick Corbin (ranked 12th best prospect in Angels farm system pre-season) and a PTBNL, though I've seen one rumor say that it will be Tyler Skaggs (8th).   Corbin has had an OK season in A-ball, but a 3.87 ERA there is not that great.  Skaggs, if he indeed is the PTBNL, would be the prized prospect, he's only 18 but doing better than Corbin in A-ball, though both are young (Corbin in only 20 YO).  Skaggs strikes out a lot, walks little, and at an age much younger than the competition.  They are both viewed as only middle of rotation starters by Minor League Baseball Analyst, but given what Skaggs has done in A-ball this season, I have to view him as above that.

But the key thing to me is that none of them are a potential Dan Haren.  That is quite a come down from all the players they originally traded away for Haren, which included Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Anderson, Greg Smith, and Chris Carter, though of course they got 2.5 seasons out of Haren before trading down.  They took a big hit on talent, particularly for a player like Haren who would be the ace of most rotations, as they basically got a handful of middle rotation innings eaters plus a reliever, with only Skaggs (and he's not a sure thing yet) as a potential plus starter for them.

Giants Trade Rumors

And to all the trade rumors I've been seeing:  just say No, unless the Giants give up someone they no longer believe in.  Sabean has already said that nobody in the rotation will be traded, so that is a relief.  The latest rumor has the Giants kicking tires with the Marlins regarding Jorge Cantu.  Previous targets David DeJesus and Cory Hart, suffered bad injuries - DeJesus could be out for the season - and thus should be passed on.

Cantu might be cheaper to trade for because he's a free agent after the season, but the Rangers are looking into his cost right now as well and appears more aggressive about this being "the" year, probably because their young players are still mostly unproven and so this year is the year to win it with all their older players because the Angels are suffering a rare down season, while the Giants are currently jelling together for many years of playoff chases.  The hottest rumor is the Orioles LHP reliever Will Ohman, though I would note that the White Sox has a hot young LHP reliever named Erick Threets, former Giants prospect, who has been shut-out great so far this in, like, 7 appearances.  Sure could use him now, I wonder how much we would have to give up to get him back?

Thoughts on Marlin's Series

Lastly, this series will be tough to win since four games mean going at least 3-1, and Johnson gives them a great chance for at least one game, and another game is a coin flip plus for the other two games, you never know.  It would take a lot of hot hitting to continue the winning stretch.  And I have a feeling some blown games by the bullpen would figure into it as well.

Breaking even seems very doable, but would be a let down after this great stretch of great play.  However, we can't expect the Giants to play at such a lofty level for the rest of the season, at some point they will slow down and that's when the other NL West teams will try to take advantage.   But after this great winning streak, I can live with that.

Your 2010 Giants are 41-40: Brewers Up Next

Sorry, forgot to post up this series before taking off for a mini-vacation down the coast.

Obviously, disappointing to lose the series 1-3 to D-Rox, but as I covered in my post on the series, it did not look good for us to break even in the series, we were facing pretty good pitching while also in an offensive funk. Coors did not break them out of it.  Still, they almost did it, dragging out the last game to 15 innings before succumbing.  Up next:  the Brew-Crew, led by the King Pin, Prince Fielder.

Game 1:  Dave Bush vs. Sanchez

Obviously, the Giants won.  Still, I think it would be instructive to see how it looked going into the game.  Sanchez hasn't been that good against the Brewers in his career:

MLB Notes:  Sanchez saw his personal three-game winning streak snap in his last start against the Dodgers, when he allowed five runs -- four earned -- in five innings. Sanchez is 0-1 with a 8.31 ERA in eight career appearances (four starts) against the Brewers.

Still, he was haunted there by timely hits previously, in his first two starts there, but was pretty good against them last season (7IP, 3 hits, 3 walks, 12 K's), which would be closer to where he is today as a pitcher. It looked like he would walk a bunch, strike out a bunch, give up some hits, and how he would fare would depend on whether he shut them down when needed, as there would be a lot of base runners.

Dave Bush, however, had a 3.29 ERA against the Giants at home in his career, covering four starts, so he pretty much shut them down previously. It looked like it would be a evenly fought battle between the two, given how well Sanchez has pitched this season (3.15 ERA overall; 3.26 ERA on road), with a lean towards Bush because of his past control of the Giants at home.

Game 2: Randy Wolf vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

Giants: Bumgarner has worked seven innings in each of his two starts since being recalled from Triple-A. Both times, the rookie has fallen prey to the long ball during the early innings before settling down.

Brewers: Wolf was in control Thursday against the Cardinals, giving up just one walk and scattering four hits over 6 1/3 innings. His command was excellent, as he threw a first-pitch strike to the first 11 batters he faced while mixing in his curveball effectively.

Bumgarner has been amazing in his first two starts this season.  He pitched like a pro in both games, giving us seven strong innings.  However, shakiness early on costed him, and he ended up losing both games.  However, he handled strong offensive teams pretty well so he looks like he'll be able to handle the Brewers OK at their home park as well.

And OK might do it against Randy Wolf.  Wolf has been a pretty good pitcher most of his career, particularly for our divisional rivals in recent seasons - ironically, he grew up nearby, possibly as a Giants fan - but he has had a tough season, particularly at home, with a 5.25 ERA.  However, he has pitched well against the Giants at whatever his home park was before, and particularly well in recent seasons, so he might have enough to take on the Giants even in Miller park.

Still, his problem at home is giving up a lot of hits and homers, while not striking out that many batters.  For whatever reason, he has had a tough time pitching in this park.  If anything, the park appears to be getting into his head, his first start was a DOM start, but since then his PQS at home was either a poor 3, or a DIS start.  In fact, 3 of his last 5 starts were DIS starts here at home.

Given his strong history against the Giants, I have to call the game relatively even, but I would have to lean strongly towards Bumgarner because he's controlled good offensive team thus far, even in a strong offensive home like Colorado, and Wolf has been struggling to figure out how to pitch at his new home here.

Game 3:  Chris Narveson vs. Lincecum

MLB Notes:

Giants:  Lincecum has lost his last two starts after winning three in a row. However, he managed to maintain his velocity in his most recent outing at Colorado, and he did so in 87-degree heat -- the sort of weather that often has drained his energy.

Brewers: Narveson stumbled out of the gates in St. Louis, giving up four hits and two runs in the first to put his club immediately behind the eight-ball, a familiar theme for Narveson. The lefty has allowed 17 runs and 32 baserunners in opening frames in just 13 starts.

Narveson has been so bad, don't need much to discuss, should be a win day for Lincecum, even with his recent struggles.

Game 4: Manny Parra vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

Giants: Zito has lost his last two decisions over a span of four starts. That stretch actually began with a strong outing -- a complete game in a setback on June 18. The Giants gave Zito a lead last Saturday with their stunning seven-run outburst, but Zito couldn't hold it.

Brewers: Spotted an eight-run lead after four innings and an 11-run lead after the fifth, Parra was unable to take advantage, laboring through 5 2/3 innings and giving up five earned runs. He threw deep into most counts, ringing up a pitch count of 116 in less than six innings.

Two struggling pitchers but much different starts to the season. Parra was thrust in the starting rotation due to an injury to another starter, he has struggled with walks but has struck out enough to counter that problem. However, he has been unable to stop the hits or the homers from happening, and that has costed him big as a starter, 5.15 ERA so far. He has done slightly better at home in terms of HR but the hits have cost him big time.

Zito was bad to his pre-Giants goodness early this season before taking a big steps down in May. His June was actually pretty good if you look at his peripherals, but he was a bit unlucky and ended up with a bad ERA again, and he just got slammed in Colorado. However, he depends greatly on his curve and Coors tends to destroy pitchers like that - though he actually pitched well there when he was struggling elsewhere previously, odd that - so I'm willing to give him that start.

He hasn't really pitched that well in Milwaukee before, but he had struggled for us before as well. This season has been different for Zito, so while I would call this game about even, I would have to lean towards the Giants for this game, as Parra has been pretty bad this season as a starter, though it is hard to blame him since he probably prepared to be a reliever.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants are in great shape for at least splitting the series, given the win in game one, with a good possibility of winning the series, and an outside shot at sweeping. That would certainly take out the bitter taste in Giants fans mouths from the past few weeks.

People have been questioning the Giants because of their 41-40 half-way record, some comparing it to the 88-74 record of last season, but I've never felt that it is correct to look at one snapshot and say that is what is going on. If the Giants were around .500 for the whole season, then that would be a fair question, but at one point they were 37-28, 9 games above, on pace for a 92-70 record.

As Burrell was quoted as saying the other day to another Giant, if the Giants focused on gaining one game per week, we are not that far behind (this is Dusty's old rule of thumb for judging how far behind you are and for making a seemingly hard task much easier). A 7 game lead can dissipate pretty fast. The Giants were at a similar point earlier this season, long losing streak, 23-22 record and 4.5 games back, then they went on a 14-6 win streak.

With the Brewers and then the Nationals, even on the road, before the All-Star break, they could return to better footing. The Brewers have been horrible at home this season. Their HOF closer lost his job to a rookie and Fielder has been so-so this season (I know, he's on my fantasy team), though Corey Hart resuscitated his career this season (and apparently attracted the attention of the Giants, Schulman tweeted that the Giants are focusing on him). And as I covered, even before the win, the Giants looked in good shape to at least split the series, and now with the win in the one game in strong question against the Giants, look good to win the series.

Against the Nats, they were actually doing OK, about .500 until the bottom fell out about 3 weeks ago. They have gone 6-16 in that period. However, in general this season, they have played OK at home. Still, given that bad streak, with three games, one has to think that the Giants could possibly win the series, though it will be hard because the Giants will face Stephen Strasburg in Friday's game, though we have Matt Cain facing him. Strasburg has mostly handled teams, but has been showing cracks in his last couple of starts. Plus it looks like we'll be facing Stammen and Martin, two rookies, and Stammen has been struggling and while Martin has a good ERA, his Runs Allowed has been high, due to the hits he gave up, so I would downgrade his performance enough that these two games should lean towards Giants wins.

No On Hart

As noted above, the Giants are looking at Corey Hart. After looking like a perennial All-Star in 2007, he slumped in 2008 and 2009, before coming back this season. He has great overall numbers right now, 19 homers, .288/.350/.573/.923 with 61 RBI right now.

But people looking at his overall numbers now, which are great, would miss that he was scuffling again in April, looking like the same-old, same-old disappointment he has been the past two seasons. He then had a great May, where he slugged 10 homers to fuel a great performance. He has also had a great June and July, but if you look at his BABIP, it was .368 in June, .467 in July, neither of which is sustainable by him, a .306 career BABIP hitter, and .305 BABIP for the past three seasons. There is no way he will be able to continue hitting like he has for this season, let alone for 2011, which is controllable for the Giants if we got him.

Of course, the other part of the equation is what we might give up for him. I would be OK with a trade if we were to trade prospects that the Giants did not consider to be keepers, like they did last season with Barnes and Alderson. Hart might be able to continue to hitting close to this for the rest of the season, that has happened for players before, then reverting to his past couple of seasons' performance in 2011.

However, I don't find that likely right now. Most probably it would cost the Giants Jonathan Sanchez to get Hart. I would not do that. Hart is on a down trend career-wise, with no plus quality other than he can hit 20+ homers for Milwaukee, which is boosted greatly by his home park. His road numbers are very ordinary, average. He strikes out a little too much, walks not enough, does not hit well enough, particularly on the road, though he has hit OK in AT&T.

Sanchez however, is on the brink of figuring things out. And he has had a great season so far despite not figuring it all out. He strikes out a large percentage of the batters he face, which makes up for his walks, his K/BB ratio is OK at 1.92.

Plus, Schulman tweets that it would take Sanchez PLUS prospects to get Hart. No thanks. There is no upside to getting Hart.

Plus, getting him would mean we have to release an outfielder. We already have Huff, Burrell, Rowand, Torres, and Schierholtz in the outfield. Getting Hart would mean getting rid of one of those players. Unless the Giants are ready to give up on Rowand and release his big contract, I would not be happy with getting Hart, just in terms of what it does to the Giants outfield roster.

Getting Hart will probably mean the DFA of Schierholtz. I think that Nate is the equivalent of Hart. Both will hit around high 700 OPS plus provide good defense in RF. Hart might be more likely to provide that, but we would be paying a lot more money for him than Schierholtz. I would rather rotate Schierholtz into the starting mix than to give up anybody significant for Hart, and particularly for Jonathan Sanchez.

Hopefully this is more a case of the Giants kicking the tires of the Brewers, doing their due diligence, to see what it would cost us to get Hart. That is often the case with the Giants rumors, the Giants are usually pretty quiet on their player moves, they usually come out of no-where. However, because they did indicate an interest in the other team's player, that team then releases the rumor to kick up interest with other teams and let the rest of the league know that they are interested in trading Hart. This is similar to the laughable Lincecum for Rios rumor that Toronto released a few years back.

My view is supported by Baggarly's tweet that the Brewers are only looking for a team that will overpay, but that his intel with the Giants says "Giants aren't sufficiently enamored w/Hart to do that." He then tweeted that the Giants wonder if his numbers are inflated by their strong offensive lineup and his ballpark (which I noted from his stats). If the Giants aren't that interested, then the rumor has to be coming from the Brewers, not the Giants.

2009 Winter Meetings News So Far

There have been a number of reports out about the winter meetings: Haft, Baggarly 1, 2, 3, 4, and Schulman 1 and 2, plus a trade rumor regarding San Diego's Kouzmanoff. I will run through all the news I have available right now.

Kouzmanoff

I'll start there as that's pretty exciting if true. However, I'm not sure what they would want back in return. The notice mentioned Fred Lewis and Kevin Frandsen as the trade offer from our end, and I agree, I would not be excited by that.

Then again, Kouzmanoff has not been that great in the majors, his OPS the past two seasons were low 700's whereas Fred Lewis has hit better than that during his time in the majors, even when he was struggling last season. Still, that's great power to get, it would secure 3B with Pablo moving to 1B (good bye Ishikawa and Garko), I think he was at least OK defensively, and even if he is in arbitration, he would still be getting only $3-5M according to the article (given his poor OPS, I would think that it would be closer to $3M, as the formula for the first year in arbitration is normally (if I remember right) around 40-60% of the average pay he would get as a free agent, and Pedro Feliz being about a similar player getting $5M at 3B, that would put him in the $2-3M range.

It is mentioned that the Twins might be in play, offering Glen Perkins, but I would rather have Lewis ALONE instead, rather than get Perkins. Pucetas at minimum, should be able to match what Perkins has done so far in the majors.

According to Baggarly, however, the 'Dres don't want Lewis. If Frandsen and Pucetas gets the job done, this would be an overpay over what the Twins are offering, but I would do the trade (of course, all speculation, don't know what the Giants are offering, if anything, it is a rumor after all). I would rather trade Martinez with Frandsen, if possible, as I like Pucetas.

Velez/Torres Lead-Off

Well, this would put a tight crimp into my thoughts on how the 2010 roster might fall out. If both are kept on the roster, then either Bowker or Schierholtz gets RF (with either Bowker returning to AAA or Schierholtz DFA?; I also read somewhere that the Giants were not happy Bowker left winter league and he wasn't happy about them ordering him to winter league).

Lead-off? Ugh! That would not be acceptable to me. I would rather leadoff with Bowker instead, or even Lewis. Velez is not the option for lead-off yet, after his hot return to the majors, after sucking early in the year, he cooled off totally.

To Aug. 9: .429/.458/.661/1.118, 3BB/10K in 56 AB with 1 SB and 1 CS (50%)
8/10 to end:.233/.282/.358/.640, 13BB/37K in 193 AB with 9 SB and 4 CS (69%)

So not only would his defense harm the team, his offense would not even make up for it. And there is a reason Torres was a journeyman when we signed him. He just got lucky this year with his hitting. Maybe he finally learned how to hit, but are we really going to bet on him learning? That would not seem to be the Giants or Sabean's way of doing things in the past.

This news does not make me happy with Sabean.

Marlon Byrd in the hand?

There is also talk about the Giants pursuing Marlon Byrd, which would preclude having these two as leadoff, though I don't know who would start otherwise, other than Aaron Rowand again. Plus, Byrd has benefited GREATLY from hitting in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors, his OPS in his three years there was around the low 700 on the road, so any deal he signs would be an overpay if they are basing it on his overall numbers, which is very nice, with Texas the past 3 years. He was roughly a high 600 OPS before Texas, which rings true with his road numbers with Texas, so NO THANKS, PLEASE!

Signing him for big money would not make me happy with Sabean either, even more so, as I think Velez/Torres should be able to do what Byrd did and for much less in pay.

Johnny Damon Lead-off?

Another possibility is Johnny Damon, who the Yankees would no longer need if they trade for Curtis Granderson, as rumored. He would totally upgrade lead-off and he has been decent defensively in the outfield, if I remember right. I only wonder what his price would be, but if the Giants are willing to pay it (and not prevent us from keeping our pitching in the future) I would be OK with an overpay, he's been a pretty good player, though getting old, so there is that risk.

Panda Clean-Up

But this does make me happy: Pablo Sandoval has been annointed the new clean-up hitter. That is where he should have been hitting at the end of last season except that Bengie Molina would have had a gamer hissy-fit probably and bemoan his lack of respect, and by the way, he's no clean-up hitter and did he mention that he deserves more years and more money?

Middle Hitter

With Sandoval crowned the cleanup hitter, now we need to settle 3rd and 5th. The team is apparently still looking and Sabean noted that there are more options in the infield than outfield at the moment. I would think that could change once it is learned which players were non-tendered. Apparently there are two "what-ifs" regarding 3B, so Sandoval, while clearly cleanup right now, could play at 1B or 3B.

Payroll: Low $90M

That is about what it was last season, though a slight raise, as I think they started with a high $80M last season. About what could be expected. Hopefully Neukom will open the purse a little more if Lincecum wins more money in arbitration than expected.

No Catching for Sandoval or Garko

That is good news to hear. I'm tired of Giants fans suggesting that we start Pablo there. He is too valuable to play behind the plate, we need him in the lineup for as many of the 162 games as he can, and if he were catcher, he would probably miss at least 20 games if not more if he is injured.
Garko, I would have been intrigued to see him hit there, but since it has been so long since he started, it would not be fair to him to try to start catching again, let alone be the starter, even if it is temporary until Posey comes up. In any case, I read somewhere that the Giants are not even sure they want to be paying millions of dollars for Garko in arbitration if he is platooning with Ishikawa at 1B. Sounds like the Giants have to decide whether Garko is the starter or not, and if so, then that means Ishikawa is gone. I would be fine with him being paid more and platooning, but it's not my money.

No Penny Pickup for Giants

It probably has already been announced already, but Brad Penny appears to have signed with the Cardinals for $7.5M plus $1.5M in incentives. He tried to get more years and similar money from the Giants, but they backed off and he signed with them.

That's OK with me. I think Pucetas would be adequate in the #5 starting spot, and perhaps be decent even, instead of just average. With Lincecum's payday possibly huge, I think we have to pass on Penny unless he's at a good price. That's not a good price.

Another pitcher who is noted as a possible Giants target: Brett Myers, late of Phillies, also part-time closer for Phillies too. I would love to have him as our 5th starter. Jason Marquis is also mentioned, but while he would be OK as our #5 starter, I don't want to be paying him very much to do so for us, under $5M, but I don't expect him to sign for so little. I would pay more for Myers.

The Giants are looking at some international pitching free agents as well.

They are also considering Bumgarner as the 5th starter, though they then would want a veteran reliever in the bullpen if that is done. I'm not sure what the connection there is, though. Because they expect him to pitch less innings?

Other internal options include Joe Martinez, who pitched nicely in the AFL and Kevin Pucetas, who is being asked for in trade conversations, which confirms for the Giants that he would be an OK option for #5 starter. As I noted somewhere, Pucetas' MLE would put him in the mid-to-high 4 ERA which would be great for a #5 starter.

Keeping Medders

Speaking of pitching, the Giants appear to be keeping Medders, by tendering a contract and offering arbitration to him, unlike Garko who is on the bubble. I like what Medders did in 209 and would love to have him in the bullpen again. He would push out someone in the configuration I had in a prior post, but that would be OK with me, he did well for us.

Uggla Trade?

Appears to be coming to a head, the Marlins are ready to unload Uggla to the highest bidder, but right now the Giants appear to not be among the front runners. Still, they could come in with a late bid and try to win him. I think I would rather have Kouzmanoff, if possible, especially if it is Lewis and Frandsen for him. About similar hitting, better defense from Kouz than Uggla, whether Uggla plays 2B or 3B.

But if, as Baggarly notes, Uggla's trade value plummets because the Marlins waited too long (see Twins botching of Johan Santana trade), and we can get him on the cheap, in terms of prospects traded, then it would be great to get him, even at the big price he would probably net in arbitration. He also noted that even if the payroll was used up in this scenario, Neukom could OK raising the payroll to fit him in.

Starting Catcher

With Posey pretty much dismissed at the opening day starter (with the caveat that spring training could change things), the Giants are now looking for a starting catcher who is OK with not starting should Posey prove to be ready. Hard to find anyone like that unless you overpay someone for 2010. Sabean said that he's taking his time on this, which to me means that they probably have a few names who they are targeting and they will keep close tabs on all of them, and once all but one is signed, he would work at signing the last catcher for as low as he can get away with it in January.

Trade Value of OF

A scout was asked about the value of Giants OF, and the answers are not surprising to Giants fans who follow the farm system closely: Lewis, None; Schierholtz, basically none; Bowker, some. I would argue that Schierholtz would be worth more than that, but not much more, so I don't have a problem with that assessment. Nate is doing well in Puerto Rico and so that is good to hear.

Burriss in Limbo

Emmanuel Burriss had setback to the same foot that kept him out most of the season. That is not a good sign as that is his main value as a ballplayer, his speed, and a recurring or hard to heal foot injury could end his major league career before it really began. Too bad, I think he had some promise to become our starting 2B, with great D, good plate discipline, and great speed and SB.

Breaking Good News: White Sox Claims Alex Rios

There was unnecessary worry by some Giants fans that Sabean was the GM who claimed Alex Rios off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays: as I had posited, it wasn't him, it was the White Sox who claimed him and his $60M remaining on his big contract that he signed with the Blue Jays in April 2008. The Blue Jays just announced that they released Rios to the White Sox just before game time today.

Ironically, Ricciardi went from dreams of landing Lincecum or Cain for Rios in the 2007 off-season to releasing Rios for no compensation a little less than two years later, other than getting out from under the financially crushing contract that he mistakenly gave Rios. Now the White Sox are stuck with it.

Buyer Beware: Matt Holliday

With the Giants offense still chugging along like the little engine that could, many fans have been crying for more offense, of course, not thinking of the consequences of that, which is the number of top prospects we would have to give up to get said stud hitter.

Matt Holliday has been one of the names thrown out, and I was listening to 860, the A's radio station, where they were extolling how good he was previously, and thus teams would ignore what he has done this season, and remember how good he was before joining the A's, how being in a good lineup would cure his ills, plus maybe returning to the NL.

Not Really

I am going to dispell that specious logic and hopefully discourage people from overpaying for Holliday now:

Career-road: .280/.351/.449/.800, with 48 HR in 1467 AB, 31 AB/HR
2009-road: .280/.374/.402/.776, with 4 HR in 164 AB, 41 AB/HR
2009-home: .262/.370/.426/.795, with 4 HR in 141 AB, 35 AB/HR

Those all look pretty similar, no? His numbers in 2009, whether road or home, look like they are within range of what he has produced during his career on the road. Here is his career home (and that includes that bit above in Oakland):

Career-home: .348/.417/.624/1.042, with 88 HR in 1494 AB, 17 AB/HR

Which only goes to show how strong the Coors Stadium effect is on hitters (and negatively so on pitchers). Holliday is a very average hitter who is probably going to earn $15-20M per season with the contract Boras will get him but should only be getting $10-12M per season.

Player Analysis Tip: Look to the Road

This is what I've been advocating here on my site (and everywhere I post) regarding the better way to evaluate hitters and pitchers. This is why I've been putting the kibosh on every talk I see about trading for the Rangers' Hank Blalock, because he's crap outside of their home stadium. Holliday, while not crap, is at best an average hitting corner outfielder outside of Coors Stadium, with his .800 OPS lifetime in the majors outside of Coors. To give you some perspective, Fred Lewis has hit approximately that the past two seasons in SF, which is a neutral stadium that favors flyball pitchers and disadvantages left-handed hitters (though oddly, Lewis, Pablo, and Ishikawa have been much better at home so far and Schierholtz slightly better at home; that would explain our great home record and poor road record).

The thing is, a players career stats over emphasizes their home stats relative to their road stats. It would be like taking a poll of 100 people, where over half of them are Americans, and saying that the survey results represents the feelings worldwide, when Americans represent maybe 5% of the world's population. Yet I have seen some sabers not get this and argue that it is real data and must be included.

Ideally, yes, for better analysis, you would include his home stats with his road stats, using a portion of his home numbers, so that his career numbers is not overweighted with his home stats. But that is complicated to do and not easily obtainable from looking at his career splits stats.

This is like the case of OPS vs. OBPxSLG. Ideally, OBPxSLG is the number you compare hitters with, but OPS, by simply adding OBP to SLG, is an easy way to visually obtain a comparable measure for comparison. That same concept, I believe, applies to using a players road stats to compare with other players, for a rough idea of their comparability. This works for both hitters stadiums like Coors, and severe pitchers stadiums like Dodger Stadium and Petco. Then one can see that Blalock and Holliday are not really as good a hitter as they appear via their career stats and Chan Ho Park and Jeff Weaver are not really as good a pitcher as they appear via their career stats.

And you can verify this by looking at the players home/road splits for every season. Some players are all over the place, but for the most part, a players road stats don't vary much from what they perform when they move to a more neutral home park. Just check out players who have moved a number of places, like Park and Weaver, and you will see that their road numbers are pretty consistent, and that when they play at a more neutral park, their home numbers will be consistent with their road numbers.

Giants Thoughts

Don't overpay for average players like Holliday who benefited from home parks that boosted their overall career stats greatly. Preferably, I would rather the Giants just play with the cards that they have and not look outside, unless it is one of those trades that Sabean prefers to do, which is to get a player they want with prospects that they don't think are worth keeping. It has worked for the most part over the years.

I think we have prospects we can give opportunities to for all our positions. At 1B, Ishikawa, Bowker, and Guzman are good ones to check out, and if McPherson can ever get off the DL. At 2B, we have Frandsen and Burriss, plus Downs. In the OF, Schierholtz, Bowker, and Lewis, in about that order, plus maybe EME.

The only position I would be OK with the Giants going outside to get a high priced vet for minimal prospects is 2B, if I'm forced to accept one, where, while I would love to give Frandsen a chance, I will understand trying to upgrade there. There is alway 2010 to give Frandsen another chance, it is not like he was the best hitter ever in AAA or the minors, just that he has performed at every level coming up, and that deserves the opportunity to try to do that at the major league level.

2B is the most obvious upgrade, Ishikawa has shown some at 1B, Schierholtz and Bowker some in the OF.

Giants Sniffing Pirates: Sanchez and 1B LaRoche

As a long-time reader, Matt Mongiello, commented, the Giants are kicking the tires with the Pirates regarding 2B Freddy Sanchez and 1B Adam LaRoche, though more seriously for the former than the latter. I then read an account from a Pittsburgh newspaper.

LaRoche is not such a high priority, with Ishikawa showing some recent bat life - .303/.373/.525/.898 since May 10th. But if there is a good upgrade to be had on the cheap, the Giants will at least entertain talks. According to the Pittsburgh site, the Giants prefer a righthander, however: LaRoche is a lefty. Plus, LaRoche is a free agent after the season and will be 30 next season. I doubt anything will come of these talks, the Giants would not be willing to give up much in prospect talent for a rental, and the Pirates will want to have some sort of decent prospect in return, I would think (at least I would). I don't think they are worrying about his salary that much, it is only $7.05M, or about $3.5M left. I can see them dumping his salary at the deadline, but right now: no.

Sanchez would be the clearer upgrade for us, with Uribe the current starter, Burriss in AAA trying to figure out how to hit, and Frandsen apparently in some sort of doghouse. He is owed about $3M for this season with an $8M club option next season. His value is on an upswing with his second best season ever, after 2006, but he's 31 years old and not really so good (about average) the other seasons, and particularly bad in 2008.

I would think that an middle infielder would be what the Pirates would want from us. One who would be ready to play for them in 1-3 years, when their recent young draft picks should be arriving on the major league scene. I think the Pirates would be most interested in Burriss right now than Crawford. As nicely as Crawford did in San Jose, he's been struggling in Connecticut, even on the road, and he's still striking out a heck of a lot. I think Burriss's minor league performance bodes better than Crawford's for a major league career. And that doesn't even include Burriss's major league performance, which I would also rate positively, long-term.

They would also want another prospect or two in addition, probably some of our mid-tier pitching prospects who are doing well in AA and Advanced A, like English, Pucetas, Tanner, etc. We have a number of promising pitchers and I think they would like to get their hands on some to stock their system.

And I would not trade Jonathan Sanchez for Freddy Sanchez, I think Sanchez can still be a superior top of rotation starter, and pitchers like that should get value in return. I don't think that this is enough value in return. And with Randy Johnson's injury today putting his availability into question, I think the Giants, even if they were seriously considering trading Sanchez, would pull him off the market to take Johnson's last start before the All-Star break and reassess afterward.

Trade Rumors: Giants Looking at Indians and White Sox

According to a recent rumor, the Giants were at an Indians/White Sox game scouting Jermaine Dye and Victor Martinez. I answered the V-Mart trade possibilities on Lefty, and here is basically what I wrote there:

I think V-Mart would require Posey or Bumgarner in the deal, ultimately. The Indians are not in a position of dumping guys just to get salary off their roster, they will only make a deal that gets them ready to battle in 2010, after all, they got Grady Sizemore still on the team. I don't think a package led by Alderson would do it for the Indians.

Look at last year's trade. About half a year of Sabathia (V-Mart has additional year), and the Brewers sent their #1 prospect, Matt LaPorta, plus #11 Bryson and #24 Brantley and Zach Jackson, who was #16 the year before. For comparison, the Giants equivalent would be #1 Bumgarner, #11 Waldis Joaquin (or they might want #13 Henry Sosa), #24 Matt Downs (or they might want #23 Thomas Neal), and last years #16 Nick Pereira (or this year's #15 Kevin Pucetas or #17 Travis Ishikawa).

Given their #1 prospect is a C, and looking over this list, plus fact that V-Mart is signed for another year, I think Bumgarner, Ishikawa (to replace V-Mart at 1B, platoon with Garko, perfect), Pucetas, and probably someone like Scott Barnes, would be what they are looking for in a package from us for V-Mart, based on what they got for Sabathia.

I know V-Mart is no Sabathia, but it's 1.5 years of low cost V-Mart vs. 0.5 years of CC, he plays both C and 1B, switch-hitter, might be able to sign him long term (Nero is agent, not Boras, not sure what that means), excellent hitter, hit same at home as on the road, power, he's in his prime, 30 this year.

Dye is a good hitter, but one must remember that he hits much better at home than on the road. In addition, he has played RF predominantly during his career, and his defense in RF is atrotious, costing 1.5 games per 150 games, a particularly bad trait to have with the Giants funky RF shape. Plus, then he would take away Schierholtz's only position, and put Winn in LF.

Giants Thoughts

Since Sabean and the Giants rarely give any information out, I think that the observers who saw the Giants at this game assumed that the Giants are looking only for a power hitter and then threw out the obvious names, like V-Mart and Dye. Neither fits because the Giants are not willing to trade what it would take to get V-Mart, and Dye don't fit our roster, though Sabean has always said that he would make the trade first, then figure out the ramifications later. And they could always play Dye in LF, but defense would be a problem there as well.

I think the Giants are looking instead for MI players, like Jhonny Peralta and Josh Barfield, who can play 2B. Barfield is extraneous to them now, a big bust of a trade, and they moved Peralta to 3B to play someone else at SS, plus Peralta will be a free agent, I think, at the end of next year. Barfield should not cost as much to get, but Peralta would be more likely to be good for us in 2009-2011 (contract has option to 2011, total of $14M over next 2.5 years) and hits for some power. He would probably cost us an Alderson, but not much more I think in top prospects, but probably would have to throw in another starter, Pucetas, Tanner. If Sadowski can keep on pitching well, they might take him.

In the ChiSox case, I would be interested in Wilson Betemit. Could play 2B, SS, 3B, totally wasted by Yankees and now ChiSox, had a lot of power playing in Atlanta and LA. Should not take much to take him off their hands and he's still young. They already have a nice SS in Ramirez plus Gordon Beckham could play the same positions as well and would take a starting position. Probably would take a mid-tier pitching prospect, I would think, Pucetas, Tanner, Martinez, Sadowski.