I was wondering about whether a catcher's framing ability had any effect on Watson, so I dug into the pitch framing numbers on StatCorner. Below was what I found.
Showing posts with label catching. Show all posts
Showing posts with label catching. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 21, 2018
Friday, March 13, 2015
Your 2015 Giants: Big Reason Giants Don't Want to Move Posey Just Yet ... And Yet, Susac!
I'm not sure exactly how I ran across this, but BP studied catcher framing in this article.
ogc thoughts
There are three interesting data points that were interesting to Giants fans regarding Buster Posey.
Buster Rules!
As one of the best strike framers today. Despite playing roughly 4 seasons worth of catching so far, because of that devastating, even worse than NFL nasty hit in 2011, he had 71 Called Strikes Above Average, good for a tie with Mauer for 16th place, covering 1988-2014 (or the last 27 seasons, so a fair amount of history; wish authors would have given us total number of catchers captured in their analysis). And if you look at his catching defensive stats, you will find that resulted in 80.6 runs (or roughly 8-9 wins or roughly 2 wins per season, a huge defensive contribution just from one area).
The stats in his profile don't match what is in the article, but making rough guesses, he is adding around 25 CSAA per season. So in 3 seasons, he would be 9th (depending what Ross does), which would take him up to his 30 YO season. Looking at his stats and those of others still playing at the top of the list, he's one of the best in the past three seasons (except for Lucroy, though Lucroy's 2014 was much reduced versus previous seasons), even better than Yadier and Martin. Good reasons to keep him catching.
But So Does Aging
Looking at the Framing Aging Curve, however, most players his age are headed into a slight decline (and I would bet is a mix of guys who stay as good as they had been and guys either injured - they are catchers after all - or suffered physical declines, which led to the slight decline overall), and then at 30, there is a steep decline in the ability to frame, which suggests that as catchers' physical peak is over and physical decline happens, their ability to frame to gain strikes declines quickly. Doesn't mean he will, but it would mean that he would be defying history of catchers captured in that study.
And this result, especially given the defensive value this provides, some 3-4 wins added (and this is defensive, so the effect is multiplied due to Pythagorean) for the best players, suggests that aging older catchers need to be replaced with younger starters who are good framers as soon as their framing skills decline in their 30's, though some do keep doing well, like Jose Molina.
But age appears to be a powerful factor in decline in the ability to frame (i.e. steal) strikes:
2015 is Posey's 28 YO season. As I've shown above, all the top catchers above him which has this type of data has shown declines in their ability to frame strikes somewhere in the 29-31 age range. That suggests that his decline in this ability could be starting in the 2016-2018 time frame.
Susac to the Rescue
The authors also analyzed AAA and AA catchers, and guess who popped up on the lists? Susac. He was tied for third with 14 CSAA runs, all the other guys were older than he, and a couple of the guys ahead of him were much older than he was. And he did that catching 56 games in AAA since he spent significant time in the majors (unfortunately, didn't do as well in majors in gaining strikes, in fact, lost a few, though basically at 0). Extrapolate that to Posey's catching, and they were roughly the same on a seasonal basis. Of course, it was only AAA, but he is apparently on his way defensively,
I think that this article makes the case for what I've been suggesting as the way to handle the catching situation over the next few years. We should have Susac spend 2015 working on all his catching defensive abilities, which is his 25 YO season. Then for 2016-2020, the Giants should have Posey and Susac (assuming he can hit well enough at MLB level, something he has shown so far, but will need to prove he can sustain; I believe he can) as co-starters at C and another position on the field. 1B probably works best, but if they can handle 3B, all the better, as then we can keep Belt at 1B.
Posey at one point will decline defensively during this period, and Susac would be wasting his prime strike framing years being a backup, better to trade him and pick up a good veteran than do that, if he's not a starter. By sharing the catching duties, Posey gets less wear and tear, hopefully enabling him to extend his effectiveness in framing pitches as he gets older, while Susac gets quality time at starting catcher (though not full, albeit) and by saving his legs in his youth, perhaps he'll last longer as a good defensive catcher deeper into his 30's. Look at how Jose Molina was able to keep doing well deep into his 30's being a half-time/part-time catcher.
ogc thoughts
There are three interesting data points that were interesting to Giants fans regarding Buster Posey.
Buster Rules!
As one of the best strike framers today. Despite playing roughly 4 seasons worth of catching so far, because of that devastating, even worse than NFL nasty hit in 2011, he had 71 Called Strikes Above Average, good for a tie with Mauer for 16th place, covering 1988-2014 (or the last 27 seasons, so a fair amount of history; wish authors would have given us total number of catchers captured in their analysis). And if you look at his catching defensive stats, you will find that resulted in 80.6 runs (or roughly 8-9 wins or roughly 2 wins per season, a huge defensive contribution just from one area).
The stats in his profile don't match what is in the article, but making rough guesses, he is adding around 25 CSAA per season. So in 3 seasons, he would be 9th (depending what Ross does), which would take him up to his 30 YO season. Looking at his stats and those of others still playing at the top of the list, he's one of the best in the past three seasons (except for Lucroy, though Lucroy's 2014 was much reduced versus previous seasons), even better than Yadier and Martin. Good reasons to keep him catching.
But So Does Aging
Looking at the Framing Aging Curve, however, most players his age are headed into a slight decline (and I would bet is a mix of guys who stay as good as they had been and guys either injured - they are catchers after all - or suffered physical declines, which led to the slight decline overall), and then at 30, there is a steep decline in the ability to frame, which suggests that as catchers' physical peak is over and physical decline happens, their ability to frame to gain strikes declines quickly. Doesn't mean he will, but it would mean that he would be defying history of catchers captured in that study.
And this result, especially given the defensive value this provides, some 3-4 wins added (and this is defensive, so the effect is multiplied due to Pythagorean) for the best players, suggests that aging older catchers need to be replaced with younger starters who are good framers as soon as their framing skills decline in their 30's, though some do keep doing well, like Jose Molina.
But age appears to be a powerful factor in decline in the ability to frame (i.e. steal) strikes:
- Jose's brother Yadier hit his decline at age 31, though I would note that he had a poor year at age 26 then reverted back to goodness, and age 31 was last season for him; then again, his FRAA was negative for two consecutive seasons, so this could be it for him defensively.
- McCann hit his decline at age 29, two years going down now.
- Lucroy, who appears to be among the best in his era, had a poor season last year at age 28 (I would note here how Yadier bounced back so perhaps just a glitch).
- AJ Pierzynski was washed up defensively by his 30's, and retroactively, BP has his FRAA as horrible his whole career, so they must have decided their research back then showing him to be good defensively was not correct, making the trade look even more stupid and more likely, in my eyes, that Colletti was the one who instigated that trade, not Sabean.
- Russell Martin didn't have a steep drop but has been gentling getting worse in framing starting at age 29 (which was within career range, but not the last two seasons).
- Mauer has never been a top catcher at framing strikes, but he's been good enough to save about a one win per season, and his decline appears to have started at age 29, which covers the last two seasons.
2015 is Posey's 28 YO season. As I've shown above, all the top catchers above him which has this type of data has shown declines in their ability to frame strikes somewhere in the 29-31 age range. That suggests that his decline in this ability could be starting in the 2016-2018 time frame.
Susac to the Rescue
The authors also analyzed AAA and AA catchers, and guess who popped up on the lists? Susac. He was tied for third with 14 CSAA runs, all the other guys were older than he, and a couple of the guys ahead of him were much older than he was. And he did that catching 56 games in AAA since he spent significant time in the majors (unfortunately, didn't do as well in majors in gaining strikes, in fact, lost a few, though basically at 0). Extrapolate that to Posey's catching, and they were roughly the same on a seasonal basis. Of course, it was only AAA, but he is apparently on his way defensively,
I think that this article makes the case for what I've been suggesting as the way to handle the catching situation over the next few years. We should have Susac spend 2015 working on all his catching defensive abilities, which is his 25 YO season. Then for 2016-2020, the Giants should have Posey and Susac (assuming he can hit well enough at MLB level, something he has shown so far, but will need to prove he can sustain; I believe he can) as co-starters at C and another position on the field. 1B probably works best, but if they can handle 3B, all the better, as then we can keep Belt at 1B.
Posey at one point will decline defensively during this period, and Susac would be wasting his prime strike framing years being a backup, better to trade him and pick up a good veteran than do that, if he's not a starter. By sharing the catching duties, Posey gets less wear and tear, hopefully enabling him to extend his effectiveness in framing pitches as he gets older, while Susac gets quality time at starting catcher (though not full, albeit) and by saving his legs in his youth, perhaps he'll last longer as a good defensive catcher deeper into his 30's. Look at how Jose Molina was able to keep doing well deep into his 30's being a half-time/part-time catcher.
Friday, December 02, 2011
Posey Power Activated!
Clearly I have to write this post first. People still think that the offense is not good enough to win with. Notice the difference in my language, "good enough to win" versus "good offense". It is a natural fan inclination to think "more, better, best" for anything regarding their favorite team, that is why it is helpful to fight that inclination and think through some obvious changes to the offense, even as it exists now, and realize that your internal panic alarm going off is going off for naught.
One of the clearly big differences is that Buster Posey is returning to the lineup. Sure, people are glad about that but they don't really understand the magnitude of that change from Posey as starter versus Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside as co-starters (with a sprinkling of Hector Sanchez). I will try to make that clearer with some analysis.
In 2011, the four catchers, by Bill James Runs Created methodology, created a total of 49 Runs Created (RC). Also, collectively, by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), they saved a total of 7 runs. However, in 2012, it should just be Posey and, for now, probably Stewart, at the catching position.
Bill James projections has Posey creating 91 RC in 2012. Unfortunately, there is no Stewart forecast there, but they have projected Whiteside at .609 OPS and 16 RC. ZiPS projections just came out, and while there is no Whiteside projection, there is a Stewart projection for .640 OPS. Assuming Stewart produces at least as much as Whiteside projects, that's 107 RC from the catching position in 2012 per Bill James projections. That is a +58 RC improvement over 2011.
Defensively, assuming Posey plays as well as he did in 2011 and projecting out the innings he caught, he had 2 DRS in 361.0 innings in 2011, and triple that is roughly what the top catchers caught in 2011, so let's call that 6 DRS. That leaves about 396.0 innings for the backup. Stewart in 2011 had 9 DRS in 460.1 innings. Assuming some drop, as that is high, I think +6 is reasonable, but even if he did only 1 DRS, the defense would still be the same as in 2011. But going with the more realistic scenario, that works out to +12 DRS which is 5 runs better than the +7 DRS the Giants catchers had in 2011 (Whiteside was -3 DRS and Sanchez -1 DRS).
Looking at their baserunning, it appears that they were roughly equal, though there should be some improvement there because Posey and Stewart added bases via their baserunning whereas Whiteside subtracted. But as there is no run equivalency provided, it is hard to estimate the effect on run production, other than it would add to it. Still even at 4 bases to a run, the numbers involved is so small that there is a negligible increase in run production. Call it even.
Assuming a base RA of 580 or 3.58 RA/game (basically the average of the past two seasons), that +58 RC results in an additional 6.55 wins and that +5 DRS results in an additional 0.60 wins. Together, that adds up to 7.15 wins.
Thus, losing Posey cost the Giants approximately 7 wins in 2011, roughly 6.5 wins on offense and 0.5 wins on defense. They won 86 games in 2011, so had Posey not been taken out by a rogue runner with no conscience (or at least was acting like one, which is the same effect), the Giants probably would have won somewhere in the 93 game range. With the Cards at 90 wins, even if this is off a little, most probably the Giants would have won the Wild Card slot, and not the Cards, who eventually won the World Championships (so they probably should send a full share of the championship money to Cousins, because they might not have made the playoffs had he not took Posey out).
Looking to 2012, the Giants 2011 offense was roughly even with the defense, which works out to a roughly .500 record per Pythagorean. Adding 7 wins to that puts the Giants at 88 wins for 2012 currently.
The addition of Melky Cabrera, according to Bill James added 70 RC to 2012, by his projections. Torres, Rowand, and Ross collectively had around 60 RC. By DRS, Melky was -3 DRS but collectively the Giants CF were 0 DRS (while Torres is good, Ross and Rowand were not). So that is a roughly 7 run improvement, which is roughly a one win improvement. That puts us at 89 wins. And ZiPS projects him to hit .284/.330/.435/.765, which is higher than the .745 OPS that Bill James has him hitting.
However, I would note that any projections assume that Cabrera did not break out in 2011. Projection methodologies are not savvy enough yet to figure out when a batter or pitcher broke out, for sure. If he repeats his 2011 season - and that is possible, as the Bill James park factors for LHB and RHB is almost the same between KC and SF, and the given reason for his improvement was a dedication to conditioning and getting into shape - that would add 22 RC, or about 2.5 wins.
Now that assumes that there is no improvement anywhere else. But there was a lot of underperformance in 2011 across the whole team.
Giants 1B only hit .258/.318/.414/.732. Between Huff and Belt, there has to be an improvement there in 2012 offensively. Pablo's replacements at 3B didn't quite match him (obviously), and Giants 3B "only" hit .294/.339/.478/.817. Sandoval is projected by Bill James to hit .311/.363/.525/.888, by ZiPS to hit .299/.347/.497/.844, and he hit .315/.357/.552/.909 in 2011 (again, hard for systems to judge whether 2010 was an aberration, so that damps down forecasts, though James is pretty close).
Giants SS only hit .210/.265/.299/.564 in 2011. For Crawford, Bill James projects .232/.297/.340/.637, ZiPS .225/.291/.336/.627. Giants LF only hit .222/.310/.374/.684, while Bill James projects .266/.358/.482/.840 for Brandon Belt, ZiPS .268/.365/.452/.817 (right now I think Belt is the starting LF, given the personnel we have now).
So basically, the Giants look like a 89 win team, or thereabouts. 90 wins was necessary to get into the playoffs in 2011. They should already have it via Sandoval at 3B, as he should hit much better than what 3B hit collectively, as long as he is healthy, heck, together the 3B had roughly 90 RC (and that is ignoring the great defense Pablo played) and Bill James projects Sandoval at 102 RC for 2012, which is roughly a 1.5 win improvement.
The Giants should also get improvement at 1B, SS, LF, or CF, as it is unlikely whoever plays there in 2012 could be any worse. The possible improvements at the other four positions are buffers against declines at RF (since Beltran is not around and Schierholtz is the starter there) and in the pitching staff. Shoot, Huff could add around 5 wins by returning anywhere close to what he did in 2010, by himself. And if Belt could actually reach his projections, that would probably add another 5 wins in LF.
Thus, that is why I see the Giants offense being no worse than a 90 win team in 2012. And there are a lot of areas of improvement where we could push that up, potentially a lot, depending on who delivers and who don't. But conservatively, I don't see why the Giants are not competitive in 2012, as is, and could be another blockbuster team, like 2003, if the cards fall right for them, particularly Huff and Belt, though Vogelsong repeating would also greatly improve things as well.
One of the clearly big differences is that Buster Posey is returning to the lineup. Sure, people are glad about that but they don't really understand the magnitude of that change from Posey as starter versus Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside as co-starters (with a sprinkling of Hector Sanchez). I will try to make that clearer with some analysis.
In 2011, the four catchers, by Bill James Runs Created methodology, created a total of 49 Runs Created (RC). Also, collectively, by Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), they saved a total of 7 runs. However, in 2012, it should just be Posey and, for now, probably Stewart, at the catching position.
Bill James projections has Posey creating 91 RC in 2012. Unfortunately, there is no Stewart forecast there, but they have projected Whiteside at .609 OPS and 16 RC. ZiPS projections just came out, and while there is no Whiteside projection, there is a Stewart projection for .640 OPS. Assuming Stewart produces at least as much as Whiteside projects, that's 107 RC from the catching position in 2012 per Bill James projections. That is a +58 RC improvement over 2011.
Defensively, assuming Posey plays as well as he did in 2011 and projecting out the innings he caught, he had 2 DRS in 361.0 innings in 2011, and triple that is roughly what the top catchers caught in 2011, so let's call that 6 DRS. That leaves about 396.0 innings for the backup. Stewart in 2011 had 9 DRS in 460.1 innings. Assuming some drop, as that is high, I think +6 is reasonable, but even if he did only 1 DRS, the defense would still be the same as in 2011. But going with the more realistic scenario, that works out to +12 DRS which is 5 runs better than the +7 DRS the Giants catchers had in 2011 (Whiteside was -3 DRS and Sanchez -1 DRS).
Looking at their baserunning, it appears that they were roughly equal, though there should be some improvement there because Posey and Stewart added bases via their baserunning whereas Whiteside subtracted. But as there is no run equivalency provided, it is hard to estimate the effect on run production, other than it would add to it. Still even at 4 bases to a run, the numbers involved is so small that there is a negligible increase in run production. Call it even.
Assuming a base RA of 580 or 3.58 RA/game (basically the average of the past two seasons), that +58 RC results in an additional 6.55 wins and that +5 DRS results in an additional 0.60 wins. Together, that adds up to 7.15 wins.
Thus, losing Posey cost the Giants approximately 7 wins in 2011, roughly 6.5 wins on offense and 0.5 wins on defense. They won 86 games in 2011, so had Posey not been taken out by a rogue runner with no conscience (or at least was acting like one, which is the same effect), the Giants probably would have won somewhere in the 93 game range. With the Cards at 90 wins, even if this is off a little, most probably the Giants would have won the Wild Card slot, and not the Cards, who eventually won the World Championships (so they probably should send a full share of the championship money to Cousins, because they might not have made the playoffs had he not took Posey out).
Looking to 2012, the Giants 2011 offense was roughly even with the defense, which works out to a roughly .500 record per Pythagorean. Adding 7 wins to that puts the Giants at 88 wins for 2012 currently.
The addition of Melky Cabrera, according to Bill James added 70 RC to 2012, by his projections. Torres, Rowand, and Ross collectively had around 60 RC. By DRS, Melky was -3 DRS but collectively the Giants CF were 0 DRS (while Torres is good, Ross and Rowand were not). So that is a roughly 7 run improvement, which is roughly a one win improvement. That puts us at 89 wins. And ZiPS projects him to hit .284/.330/.435/.765, which is higher than the .745 OPS that Bill James has him hitting.
However, I would note that any projections assume that Cabrera did not break out in 2011. Projection methodologies are not savvy enough yet to figure out when a batter or pitcher broke out, for sure. If he repeats his 2011 season - and that is possible, as the Bill James park factors for LHB and RHB is almost the same between KC and SF, and the given reason for his improvement was a dedication to conditioning and getting into shape - that would add 22 RC, or about 2.5 wins.
Now that assumes that there is no improvement anywhere else. But there was a lot of underperformance in 2011 across the whole team.
Giants 1B only hit .258/.318/.414/.732. Between Huff and Belt, there has to be an improvement there in 2012 offensively. Pablo's replacements at 3B didn't quite match him (obviously), and Giants 3B "only" hit .294/.339/.478/.817. Sandoval is projected by Bill James to hit .311/.363/.525/.888, by ZiPS to hit .299/.347/.497/.844, and he hit .315/.357/.552/.909 in 2011 (again, hard for systems to judge whether 2010 was an aberration, so that damps down forecasts, though James is pretty close).
Giants SS only hit .210/.265/.299/.564 in 2011. For Crawford, Bill James projects .232/.297/.340/.637, ZiPS .225/.291/.336/.627. Giants LF only hit .222/.310/.374/.684, while Bill James projects .266/.358/.482/.840 for Brandon Belt, ZiPS .268/.365/.452/.817 (right now I think Belt is the starting LF, given the personnel we have now).
So basically, the Giants look like a 89 win team, or thereabouts. 90 wins was necessary to get into the playoffs in 2011. They should already have it via Sandoval at 3B, as he should hit much better than what 3B hit collectively, as long as he is healthy, heck, together the 3B had roughly 90 RC (and that is ignoring the great defense Pablo played) and Bill James projects Sandoval at 102 RC for 2012, which is roughly a 1.5 win improvement.
The Giants should also get improvement at 1B, SS, LF, or CF, as it is unlikely whoever plays there in 2012 could be any worse. The possible improvements at the other four positions are buffers against declines at RF (since Beltran is not around and Schierholtz is the starter there) and in the pitching staff. Shoot, Huff could add around 5 wins by returning anywhere close to what he did in 2010, by himself. And if Belt could actually reach his projections, that would probably add another 5 wins in LF.
Thus, that is why I see the Giants offense being no worse than a 90 win team in 2012. And there are a lot of areas of improvement where we could push that up, potentially a lot, depending on who delivers and who don't. But conservatively, I don't see why the Giants are not competitive in 2012, as is, and could be another blockbuster team, like 2003, if the cards fall right for them, particularly Huff and Belt, though Vogelsong repeating would also greatly improve things as well.
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