The Giants were awarded Jose Mijares, handy and productive LOOGY, formerly of the KC Royals (Schulman). Hank posited that this was related to a move to a closer by committee situation, and he was spot on, as the Giants reported that with Santiago Casilla's blister problem affecting his performance previously, they need to use him more sparingly, in order not to cause the blister to return, so they are going to start using Jeremy Affeldt more often in the closer role.
The curious part of this transaction is that the Royals just handed him over to the Giants, no prospects asked for, and further, none of the teams ahead of the Giants (first all of AL, then NL teams with worse records, which is most of the NL) laid any claim on him first. So the question is: what's wrong with Mijares that none of these 20 teams didn't lay claim on him?
Showing posts with label Brian Wilson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brian Wilson. Show all posts
Tuesday, August 07, 2012
Monday, August 22, 2011
Your 2011 Giants are 68-60: Longest Home Series
As Giants (and Giants fans) lick their wounds as they limped home, the Giants actually did OK on this tough road trip where, seemingly, the team lost someone to the DL or to a day-to-day injury every other game. They went 4-6 against tough teams, Florida, Atlanta, and a not as tough team, Houston.
Houston was greatly disappointing, but, first, we faced a true ace in Wandy in game 1, so that would have been tough to win in the first place, even with Ryan Vogelsong going. That made a series win that much harder since it required needing to win the last two games. Second, the pitching did very poorly, not even holding Houston to 3 runs or less in any of the games, though I must give a shout out to the bullpen for their 9.1 shutout IP which enabled the team to win that important swing game. And you know what? The BABIP gods decree that lousy teams like Houston will win games at least a third of the time, you just never know when that is going to happen. Sometimes that roulette wheel stops spinning and the ball drops in 00.
Had Vogelsong, Madison Bumgarner, and Dan Runzler been able to put together a good start, the Giants might have won the series. Particularly Bumgarner, where even a 4 run start would have delivered a win. As much as many Giants fans beat up on the offense for the Houston series loss, it was the pitching that cost us that series, the second game was very winnable.
Long and Winding Home Stretch
The Giants are coming up on a long stretch of home games, the longest of the season, as reported by Chris Haft. They have 18 home games out of the next 21 games, while Arizona has 10 of their next 20 at home (i.e. they only have half at home). If the two teams win at their current home and road performance so far this season (including the Giants winning 2 of 3 in SD, who they have had problems with before, but are 6-4 against them this season), the Giants should go 13-8 and D-backs go 11-9, and the Giants would be tied against them at the end of the stretch.
Unfortunately, that won't be enough to win the division because after that Arizona has 9 at home and 6 on the road while the Giants only has 3 at home and 10 on the road. And winning the division is the Giants only road to the playoffs as Uggla's hot hitting streak led the Braves to an 8 game lead in the wild-card race, rendering that race moot unless they suddenly lost 10 games in a road like the Padres did last season. The Giants must win the NL West to get into the playoffs.
And the journey, while not easy, could be easier or extremely daunting, depending on what happens in the final six games between the Giants and the D-backs, 3 at each home, including a series in Arizona just before the season ends. If the Giants can come out ahead 4-2 in those games, that would tie them up with Arizona, then the team winning the division would be determined by how they do against the rest of the schedule, where the Giants have a slight advantage in non-NL West teams, facing Houston for 4 games and Chicago for 3 games, both at home, while the D-backs got 4 on the road against Washington and 3 at home against the Pirates. Luckily, the Giants miss Wandy this time, he starts before and after the series.
And the Giants could come out ahead, they are 8-4 so far this season against Arizona. That is what they need to do in the remaining 6 games. But winning at home will be hard as Collmenter, Saunders, and Kennedy are the pitchers slated for them in that series. We have Sanchez/Runzler, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum currently as our opposing pitchers. Since the day before is a day off, I think the Giants will skip that spot in the rotation and go with Cain, Lincecum, Vogelsong, which would give us a much better chance of winning that series.
In any case, as we all should know by now, the Giants will win or lose depending on their pitching rotation. The reason we went 2-5 in the last seven games is because the pitching let us down a lot (the offense wasn't great either but we expected that we would need to win by pitching). The pitching lost 2 games it would normally win because the Giants scored 4 and 5 runs in those losses, which the pitching usually wins with. Winning just one of those games would have gave us a successful 5-5 road trip and only half a game behind in the standings.
As it is, the Giants are only 1.5 games back. That is not insurmountable. They could easily pass them up with a good stretch of pitching, much like they did SD last season with a great stretch of pitching, which they needed because they were so much further behind last season.
The Offense: Getting Better But Needs to Get Even Better
The offense has been perking up lately and that will help. Brandon Belt has been awkwardly hitting well for power while also striking out a storm. The striking out is fine if he is hitting for power, but not so much when he's not, because that is what we need from him, power with a capital "HR". He has done well in that regard in his latest call-up, hitting .256/.333/.581/.915 so far. But before any of the Giants fans get sucked into the glory of all that, before yesterday's nice 4 hit game, he was batting only .184/.279/.474/.753 with 12 strikeouts in 38 AB. He's not "all dat" yet.
The real hero of the second half, after the All Star break, is Pablo Sandoval, who is hitting his Panda-like .320/.364/.547/.911 with 7 HR (leading the team) in 128 AB with only 19 K's and an OK 11 walks. And that is in spite of injuries he has sustained, which he has fought hard against losing any starts because of the injuries. That contrasts greatly with Carlos Beltran doing on the 15-day DL for a hand/wrist strain.
But one hitter cannot do it alone (as Barry Lamar discovered), and Sandoval has been supported by Aubrey Huff who has been hitting .284/.344/.457/.800 since the break, with 4 HR in 116 AB. In particular, since July 22nd, he has hit .311/.375/.500/.875 with 3 HR in 90 AB, only 14 K's but with 11 walks.
But the Giants will need more. Jeff Keppinger, after a hiccup initially, has hit .289/.316/.378/.694 for the Giants in 90 AB. He only has 3 walks but he only has 6 strikeouts too. If he can hit closer to his career .281/.335/.393/.728, then that would be great out of the 2-spot, where he has been hitting. Nate Schierholtz has been doing his lava hot and arctic cold routine again, but he has been hot lately, hitting .333/.417/.524/.940 in 42 AB with 2 HR, 4 BB, and 11 K's. That is a lot of strikeouts, suggesting this won't continue, but he has shown the talent to hit well before, so hopefully he is starting to put things together.
Lastly, Carlos Beltran should be coming off the DL on Tuesday, the first day of the home stand. If he can hit like he is capable, then the Giants offense could be taking off having Sandoval, Beltran, Huff, Schierholtz swinging well in the middle of the lineup. And he has incentive to do well now. If he continues to linger on the DL, that is what potential team bidders will have foremost on their minds, not his great 2011 season up until he joined the Giants. If he can turn it on, though, people will forget about his 15 game DL hiccup and remember his great hitting. It will be interesting.
And they are the Giants best hopes of offense in the final weeks. Aaron Rowand has regressed greatly, once again, in the second half of the season. No matter what he does for physical fitness in the winter - mountain bike riding mostly - he has suffered a sharp downturn in offense in the second half at some point. This time it happened as early as the All-Star break. Andres Torres has turned into a pumpkin overnight. Mike Fontenot has never been that good in any case, he's just a utility guy. Orlando Cabrera has been useless so far for the the Giants, hitting even worse than Brandon Crawford, who probably will take over the starting SS role once September 1st rolls up and the call-ups are allowed. Unless, that is, Miguel Tejada can recover the stroke he had before he went on the DL, when he was hitting .299/.348/.449/.796 since June 1st and was a major catalyst for the offense jumping up to 3.9 RS/game in July before he went on the DL.
Cody Ross is the only real wildcard on the offense for the rest of the season, barring some unforeseen breakout by a 40-man roster call-up surprise. He was hitting very well for the season, in the high 700 OPS range, until the All-Star break, and then he has been horrible, hitting .155/.232/.291/.523 since then. His 4 HR has helped but we need more out of him. If he can turn it on soon, that would help the offense even more.
The Pitching: Keep On Doing Well
Of course, none of this happens unless the pitching comes through. Unfortunately, a lot of key pitchers on the DL or still recovering: Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito. Still, the pitching has performed great in the second half, 3.05 ERA overall, but there has been a lot of errors behind them, leading to a 3.67 runs allowed per game overall.
They, obviously, will need to continue doing well with the occasional hiccup. Lincecum has been leading the staff with a 1.13 ERA over 7 starts, though despite that he has only had a 4-3 record. Matt Cain has a 2.31 ERA but is only 2-4. Vogelsong has a 3.12 ERA but 4-2 record. Madison Bumgarner has a 3.31 ERA but 3-3 record. Those plus Zito's 0-3 and Dirty's 0-2, has led to the Giants 16-20 record since the All-Star break.
The relievers have been similarly good, with only Javier Lopez doing poorly, relatively, with a 3.75 ERA over 15 appearances. At lot of that was just bad BABIP luck, with 17 hits in 12.0 IP. Brian Wilson has a 3.38 ERA but been lucky with that, in 10.2 IP, only 10 hits, but 9 walks to go with 9 K's. We will need him to return healthy when he's off the DL. Same with Romo. But hopefully Steve Edlefsen can step in and do a decent enough imitation until they return. He was great in spring training and while his minor numbers look bad, he also had arm problems he played with until he went on the DL and got it healed up.
Stretch Run: Should be Fun
I find fighting for the playoffs fun, and as the old joke goes about aging, just consider the alternative. I've named my blog aptly because I still have OCD tendencies, but one that I mostly outgrew long ago was the need for everything to come out perfectly. That's never going to happen, you need to look at the overall picture and enjoy the view, should there be one.
And the Giants have a good view, both short term and long term. Barring injuries, the Giants pitching staff should be dominant for a long time, longer if Neukom ponies up the money to keep Lincecum and Cain (and Bumgarner) with us deep into this decade and give us a super-rotation. And Bochy seems to have a knack of knowing how to put together a killer bullpen that can shut down the opposition until the offense can eke out a run and win the game. As I've shown in my research, Bochy has been an outlier manager, statistically significantly good at winning 1-run games.
As far as this season goes, the offense, as maligned as it has been, had been good enough to win a lot of games with until around the time when the Giants picked up Beltran. Not that he is to blame, but that is roughly when the offense went off the rails. It did not help that Cody and Nate both went cold offensively at the same time, nor that Torres continued to struggle, or that Miggie, who was one of our hottest bats, went on the DL right around then. In addition, the catching, which had been hitting well in holding Buster's starting spot warm, both went cold after the All-Star break. I would guess that the toll of catching so many games finally caught up with them, since neither were used to or conditioned for playing so many games. Too many of the cylinders of the offense went dead at the same time.
But the offense appears to be perking up together lately and could get a big pickup when/if Beltran gets off the DL and start playing. There was a lot of talk in the media when he was first picked up, about how he was mentoring and leading some of the players he already knew on the team, Pablo and Torres, but I think the bigger story is if Panda's recent demand - no other way to put that - to play despite various injuries might inspire Beltran to come off the DL and play anyway. Beltran has been able to hit right-handed for a while but refused to play until he can bat left-handed as well. Kung Fu Panda insists on playing even though he can't bat right-handed, insisting to bat left-handed against LHP.
The pitching, despite hiccups at the start of August and in the past week, has been pitching great. The fielding has not been great, leading to many unearned runs - 11 in August already, 13 in July, only 10 or less in prior months - but that is the beauty of great pitching, it can overcome a lot of baseball sins: bad offense, bad defense.
And with the next 9 games against bad teams like San Diego, Houston, and Chicago, they could even come much closer to .500 for the month (currently at 7-13), if they can go 7-2 (leaving them at 14-15) for the rest of the month. Of course, the problem is that the 'Dres have been hot lately, winning 12 of 18, the Giants lost 2 of 3 in Houston and was close to getting swept, and the Cubs are 14-6 out of their last 20 games. The key thing is that most of these teams are bad on the road, only SD has done well on the road. So 6-3 looks possible and if the offense can pick up, then 7-2, but if not or the pitching continues to falter, they could end with an ugly 5-4 or worse record.
Then again, the D-backs are facing the hot Nats for 4 games on the road. The Nats are 36-25 at home and are 12-8 in their last 20 games. And they beat the Braves at home, winning that series, plus won a series at home against the Phillies as well in that streak, plus splitting with them on the road. They also won a series against the Reds at home. So the D-backs will have their hands full in upcoming games as well.
It should be a good pennant race. The Giants, despite all the injuries, look talented enough to stay close if not take the pennant for the rest of the season. Arizona is still doing it with some good luck, like Goldschmidt hitting well after their 1B good luck ended, but his BABIP is horribly high, for anyone, and he's not even speedy plus is striking out at a record pace (24 in last 49 AB, only 3 walks), making it all the more likely his BABIP will be crushed sooner or later. But the funny thing about baseball luck is that it can last him to the end of the season and regress to the mean next season.
In any case, the D-backs have regressed a lot in August, they are only 11-10 so far this month. The only reason they have taken the division lead is because the Giants lost a lot more games this month. Their pitching has regressed greatly, particularly with the addition of Marquis to the rotation. He was suppose to be the NL West killer, as he has been in his career, but he has a horrible 9.53 ERA so far in 3 starts for the D-backs. Plus Saunders and Collmenter have both regressed this month, as I had noted that they should earlier, 6.75 and 4.30, respectively. Plus Hudson has regressed some as well.
The schedule looks good for the Giants. They have 27 out of their remaining 34 games against NL West rivals and they have been 28-17 against these teams so far and are above .500 against the four teams, though only 6-4 against SD with 8 games to go and history noting that the Giants have lost the prior two season series against the 'Dres. They have 21 home games left and only 13 road games, with 18 of the next 21 games at home. All the teams are below .500, except for Arizona.
However, the Giants are only 43-40 against below .500 teams, 25-20 against .500 and above teams. They are one of three teams with records above .500 against winning teams, suggesting that they have struggled to get up against the poorer teams, while taking on the winning teams when presented with that challenge.
Given that there are not a lot of games left, hopefully the Giants can raise their performance against these losing teams in the rest of the season. They should be realizing that they need to step it up now, whether good team or mostly bad, and go for the throat, like the starting pitching did last season in September, going so many games without giving up more than 3 runs. Bruce Bochy, as I have noted before in a post, has that killer, go for the win instinct, so they should be getting the message soon if not already. And Kung Fu Panda should be inspiring them with his desire to play and to win, at all costs and pains.
We might not be leading now, but leading is over rated, just ask the 2003 Giants about that. We need the pitching and fielding to be going well, and frankly the fielding has been lacking, costing us runs we cannot afford to give up. The defense has costed us at least one win (which is a two win swing) in August, and we would either be ahead or behind half a game right now if the defense was up to normal standards. Also, we have been having hiccups in relief, particularly Wilson, due to his arm problems. Things should be better in September, when we can bring up the young players who are good on defense, and swap them in late in the game.
The media does not help with the fans overall sentiment. They go for the easy story: Giants offense stink. They can't accept that a very good pitcher was on and had a really good game or that even a bad team like the Astros do win some series. They encourage these extreme ups and downs in fan sentiment, I get that from reading the news accounts of this game, I get that from listening to any show about the Giants, but all this down in the mouth stuff is just useless worry.
We get that the offense stinks. Hello, whenever you take all your top hitters out of the lineup, you are going to really stink. Take Pujols and Holliday off the Cards, Ethier and Kemp off the Dodgers, Utley and Howard off the Phillies, they will stink too. We are missing Posey and Huff had been MIA until recently. Plus, we lost Freddy Sanchez, who was an important cog, and Torres has totally not performed at all. Expecting the Giants to replace all that is not realistic. I think the Giants have done as well as they can given the circumstances, without trading away all our best prospects. You roll the dice and see what happens.
It is not perfect, but life never is. What I focus on is that the Giants are in position to win the division, this season and for foreseeable seasons. That is really all you can ask for unless you are the Yankees and maybe the Red Sox. There are too many injuries and poor performances that can happen and derail your playoff chances. I think it has been a great season and looks to continue to be great for the rest of the season, barring any catastrophic injury to someone new. I have enjoyed this season a lot and hope that everyone can enjoy it as well, because it has been good and look to get better.
Houston was greatly disappointing, but, first, we faced a true ace in Wandy in game 1, so that would have been tough to win in the first place, even with Ryan Vogelsong going. That made a series win that much harder since it required needing to win the last two games. Second, the pitching did very poorly, not even holding Houston to 3 runs or less in any of the games, though I must give a shout out to the bullpen for their 9.1 shutout IP which enabled the team to win that important swing game. And you know what? The BABIP gods decree that lousy teams like Houston will win games at least a third of the time, you just never know when that is going to happen. Sometimes that roulette wheel stops spinning and the ball drops in 00.
Had Vogelsong, Madison Bumgarner, and Dan Runzler been able to put together a good start, the Giants might have won the series. Particularly Bumgarner, where even a 4 run start would have delivered a win. As much as many Giants fans beat up on the offense for the Houston series loss, it was the pitching that cost us that series, the second game was very winnable.
Long and Winding Home Stretch
The Giants are coming up on a long stretch of home games, the longest of the season, as reported by Chris Haft. They have 18 home games out of the next 21 games, while Arizona has 10 of their next 20 at home (i.e. they only have half at home). If the two teams win at their current home and road performance so far this season (including the Giants winning 2 of 3 in SD, who they have had problems with before, but are 6-4 against them this season), the Giants should go 13-8 and D-backs go 11-9, and the Giants would be tied against them at the end of the stretch.
Unfortunately, that won't be enough to win the division because after that Arizona has 9 at home and 6 on the road while the Giants only has 3 at home and 10 on the road. And winning the division is the Giants only road to the playoffs as Uggla's hot hitting streak led the Braves to an 8 game lead in the wild-card race, rendering that race moot unless they suddenly lost 10 games in a road like the Padres did last season. The Giants must win the NL West to get into the playoffs.
And the journey, while not easy, could be easier or extremely daunting, depending on what happens in the final six games between the Giants and the D-backs, 3 at each home, including a series in Arizona just before the season ends. If the Giants can come out ahead 4-2 in those games, that would tie them up with Arizona, then the team winning the division would be determined by how they do against the rest of the schedule, where the Giants have a slight advantage in non-NL West teams, facing Houston for 4 games and Chicago for 3 games, both at home, while the D-backs got 4 on the road against Washington and 3 at home against the Pirates. Luckily, the Giants miss Wandy this time, he starts before and after the series.
And the Giants could come out ahead, they are 8-4 so far this season against Arizona. That is what they need to do in the remaining 6 games. But winning at home will be hard as Collmenter, Saunders, and Kennedy are the pitchers slated for them in that series. We have Sanchez/Runzler, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum currently as our opposing pitchers. Since the day before is a day off, I think the Giants will skip that spot in the rotation and go with Cain, Lincecum, Vogelsong, which would give us a much better chance of winning that series.
In any case, as we all should know by now, the Giants will win or lose depending on their pitching rotation. The reason we went 2-5 in the last seven games is because the pitching let us down a lot (the offense wasn't great either but we expected that we would need to win by pitching). The pitching lost 2 games it would normally win because the Giants scored 4 and 5 runs in those losses, which the pitching usually wins with. Winning just one of those games would have gave us a successful 5-5 road trip and only half a game behind in the standings.
As it is, the Giants are only 1.5 games back. That is not insurmountable. They could easily pass them up with a good stretch of pitching, much like they did SD last season with a great stretch of pitching, which they needed because they were so much further behind last season.
The Offense: Getting Better But Needs to Get Even Better
The offense has been perking up lately and that will help. Brandon Belt has been awkwardly hitting well for power while also striking out a storm. The striking out is fine if he is hitting for power, but not so much when he's not, because that is what we need from him, power with a capital "HR". He has done well in that regard in his latest call-up, hitting .256/.333/.581/.915 so far. But before any of the Giants fans get sucked into the glory of all that, before yesterday's nice 4 hit game, he was batting only .184/.279/.474/.753 with 12 strikeouts in 38 AB. He's not "all dat" yet.
The real hero of the second half, after the All Star break, is Pablo Sandoval, who is hitting his Panda-like .320/.364/.547/.911 with 7 HR (leading the team) in 128 AB with only 19 K's and an OK 11 walks. And that is in spite of injuries he has sustained, which he has fought hard against losing any starts because of the injuries. That contrasts greatly with Carlos Beltran doing on the 15-day DL for a hand/wrist strain.
But one hitter cannot do it alone (as Barry Lamar discovered), and Sandoval has been supported by Aubrey Huff who has been hitting .284/.344/.457/.800 since the break, with 4 HR in 116 AB. In particular, since July 22nd, he has hit .311/.375/.500/.875 with 3 HR in 90 AB, only 14 K's but with 11 walks.
But the Giants will need more. Jeff Keppinger, after a hiccup initially, has hit .289/.316/.378/.694 for the Giants in 90 AB. He only has 3 walks but he only has 6 strikeouts too. If he can hit closer to his career .281/.335/.393/.728, then that would be great out of the 2-spot, where he has been hitting. Nate Schierholtz has been doing his lava hot and arctic cold routine again, but he has been hot lately, hitting .333/.417/.524/.940 in 42 AB with 2 HR, 4 BB, and 11 K's. That is a lot of strikeouts, suggesting this won't continue, but he has shown the talent to hit well before, so hopefully he is starting to put things together.
Lastly, Carlos Beltran should be coming off the DL on Tuesday, the first day of the home stand. If he can hit like he is capable, then the Giants offense could be taking off having Sandoval, Beltran, Huff, Schierholtz swinging well in the middle of the lineup. And he has incentive to do well now. If he continues to linger on the DL, that is what potential team bidders will have foremost on their minds, not his great 2011 season up until he joined the Giants. If he can turn it on, though, people will forget about his 15 game DL hiccup and remember his great hitting. It will be interesting.
And they are the Giants best hopes of offense in the final weeks. Aaron Rowand has regressed greatly, once again, in the second half of the season. No matter what he does for physical fitness in the winter - mountain bike riding mostly - he has suffered a sharp downturn in offense in the second half at some point. This time it happened as early as the All-Star break. Andres Torres has turned into a pumpkin overnight. Mike Fontenot has never been that good in any case, he's just a utility guy. Orlando Cabrera has been useless so far for the the Giants, hitting even worse than Brandon Crawford, who probably will take over the starting SS role once September 1st rolls up and the call-ups are allowed. Unless, that is, Miguel Tejada can recover the stroke he had before he went on the DL, when he was hitting .299/.348/.449/.796 since June 1st and was a major catalyst for the offense jumping up to 3.9 RS/game in July before he went on the DL.
Cody Ross is the only real wildcard on the offense for the rest of the season, barring some unforeseen breakout by a 40-man roster call-up surprise. He was hitting very well for the season, in the high 700 OPS range, until the All-Star break, and then he has been horrible, hitting .155/.232/.291/.523 since then. His 4 HR has helped but we need more out of him. If he can turn it on soon, that would help the offense even more.
The Pitching: Keep On Doing Well
Of course, none of this happens unless the pitching comes through. Unfortunately, a lot of key pitchers on the DL or still recovering: Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito. Still, the pitching has performed great in the second half, 3.05 ERA overall, but there has been a lot of errors behind them, leading to a 3.67 runs allowed per game overall.
They, obviously, will need to continue doing well with the occasional hiccup. Lincecum has been leading the staff with a 1.13 ERA over 7 starts, though despite that he has only had a 4-3 record. Matt Cain has a 2.31 ERA but is only 2-4. Vogelsong has a 3.12 ERA but 4-2 record. Madison Bumgarner has a 3.31 ERA but 3-3 record. Those plus Zito's 0-3 and Dirty's 0-2, has led to the Giants 16-20 record since the All-Star break.
The relievers have been similarly good, with only Javier Lopez doing poorly, relatively, with a 3.75 ERA over 15 appearances. At lot of that was just bad BABIP luck, with 17 hits in 12.0 IP. Brian Wilson has a 3.38 ERA but been lucky with that, in 10.2 IP, only 10 hits, but 9 walks to go with 9 K's. We will need him to return healthy when he's off the DL. Same with Romo. But hopefully Steve Edlefsen can step in and do a decent enough imitation until they return. He was great in spring training and while his minor numbers look bad, he also had arm problems he played with until he went on the DL and got it healed up.
Stretch Run: Should be Fun
I find fighting for the playoffs fun, and as the old joke goes about aging, just consider the alternative. I've named my blog aptly because I still have OCD tendencies, but one that I mostly outgrew long ago was the need for everything to come out perfectly. That's never going to happen, you need to look at the overall picture and enjoy the view, should there be one.
And the Giants have a good view, both short term and long term. Barring injuries, the Giants pitching staff should be dominant for a long time, longer if Neukom ponies up the money to keep Lincecum and Cain (and Bumgarner) with us deep into this decade and give us a super-rotation. And Bochy seems to have a knack of knowing how to put together a killer bullpen that can shut down the opposition until the offense can eke out a run and win the game. As I've shown in my research, Bochy has been an outlier manager, statistically significantly good at winning 1-run games.
As far as this season goes, the offense, as maligned as it has been, had been good enough to win a lot of games with until around the time when the Giants picked up Beltran. Not that he is to blame, but that is roughly when the offense went off the rails. It did not help that Cody and Nate both went cold offensively at the same time, nor that Torres continued to struggle, or that Miggie, who was one of our hottest bats, went on the DL right around then. In addition, the catching, which had been hitting well in holding Buster's starting spot warm, both went cold after the All-Star break. I would guess that the toll of catching so many games finally caught up with them, since neither were used to or conditioned for playing so many games. Too many of the cylinders of the offense went dead at the same time.
But the offense appears to be perking up together lately and could get a big pickup when/if Beltran gets off the DL and start playing. There was a lot of talk in the media when he was first picked up, about how he was mentoring and leading some of the players he already knew on the team, Pablo and Torres, but I think the bigger story is if Panda's recent demand - no other way to put that - to play despite various injuries might inspire Beltran to come off the DL and play anyway. Beltran has been able to hit right-handed for a while but refused to play until he can bat left-handed as well. Kung Fu Panda insists on playing even though he can't bat right-handed, insisting to bat left-handed against LHP.
The pitching, despite hiccups at the start of August and in the past week, has been pitching great. The fielding has not been great, leading to many unearned runs - 11 in August already, 13 in July, only 10 or less in prior months - but that is the beauty of great pitching, it can overcome a lot of baseball sins: bad offense, bad defense.
And with the next 9 games against bad teams like San Diego, Houston, and Chicago, they could even come much closer to .500 for the month (currently at 7-13), if they can go 7-2 (leaving them at 14-15) for the rest of the month. Of course, the problem is that the 'Dres have been hot lately, winning 12 of 18, the Giants lost 2 of 3 in Houston and was close to getting swept, and the Cubs are 14-6 out of their last 20 games. The key thing is that most of these teams are bad on the road, only SD has done well on the road. So 6-3 looks possible and if the offense can pick up, then 7-2, but if not or the pitching continues to falter, they could end with an ugly 5-4 or worse record.
Then again, the D-backs are facing the hot Nats for 4 games on the road. The Nats are 36-25 at home and are 12-8 in their last 20 games. And they beat the Braves at home, winning that series, plus won a series at home against the Phillies as well in that streak, plus splitting with them on the road. They also won a series against the Reds at home. So the D-backs will have their hands full in upcoming games as well.
It should be a good pennant race. The Giants, despite all the injuries, look talented enough to stay close if not take the pennant for the rest of the season. Arizona is still doing it with some good luck, like Goldschmidt hitting well after their 1B good luck ended, but his BABIP is horribly high, for anyone, and he's not even speedy plus is striking out at a record pace (24 in last 49 AB, only 3 walks), making it all the more likely his BABIP will be crushed sooner or later. But the funny thing about baseball luck is that it can last him to the end of the season and regress to the mean next season.
In any case, the D-backs have regressed a lot in August, they are only 11-10 so far this month. The only reason they have taken the division lead is because the Giants lost a lot more games this month. Their pitching has regressed greatly, particularly with the addition of Marquis to the rotation. He was suppose to be the NL West killer, as he has been in his career, but he has a horrible 9.53 ERA so far in 3 starts for the D-backs. Plus Saunders and Collmenter have both regressed this month, as I had noted that they should earlier, 6.75 and 4.30, respectively. Plus Hudson has regressed some as well.
The schedule looks good for the Giants. They have 27 out of their remaining 34 games against NL West rivals and they have been 28-17 against these teams so far and are above .500 against the four teams, though only 6-4 against SD with 8 games to go and history noting that the Giants have lost the prior two season series against the 'Dres. They have 21 home games left and only 13 road games, with 18 of the next 21 games at home. All the teams are below .500, except for Arizona.
However, the Giants are only 43-40 against below .500 teams, 25-20 against .500 and above teams. They are one of three teams with records above .500 against winning teams, suggesting that they have struggled to get up against the poorer teams, while taking on the winning teams when presented with that challenge.
Given that there are not a lot of games left, hopefully the Giants can raise their performance against these losing teams in the rest of the season. They should be realizing that they need to step it up now, whether good team or mostly bad, and go for the throat, like the starting pitching did last season in September, going so many games without giving up more than 3 runs. Bruce Bochy, as I have noted before in a post, has that killer, go for the win instinct, so they should be getting the message soon if not already. And Kung Fu Panda should be inspiring them with his desire to play and to win, at all costs and pains.
We might not be leading now, but leading is over rated, just ask the 2003 Giants about that. We need the pitching and fielding to be going well, and frankly the fielding has been lacking, costing us runs we cannot afford to give up. The defense has costed us at least one win (which is a two win swing) in August, and we would either be ahead or behind half a game right now if the defense was up to normal standards. Also, we have been having hiccups in relief, particularly Wilson, due to his arm problems. Things should be better in September, when we can bring up the young players who are good on defense, and swap them in late in the game.
The media does not help with the fans overall sentiment. They go for the easy story: Giants offense stink. They can't accept that a very good pitcher was on and had a really good game or that even a bad team like the Astros do win some series. They encourage these extreme ups and downs in fan sentiment, I get that from reading the news accounts of this game, I get that from listening to any show about the Giants, but all this down in the mouth stuff is just useless worry.
We get that the offense stinks. Hello, whenever you take all your top hitters out of the lineup, you are going to really stink. Take Pujols and Holliday off the Cards, Ethier and Kemp off the Dodgers, Utley and Howard off the Phillies, they will stink too. We are missing Posey and Huff had been MIA until recently. Plus, we lost Freddy Sanchez, who was an important cog, and Torres has totally not performed at all. Expecting the Giants to replace all that is not realistic. I think the Giants have done as well as they can given the circumstances, without trading away all our best prospects. You roll the dice and see what happens.
It is not perfect, but life never is. What I focus on is that the Giants are in position to win the division, this season and for foreseeable seasons. That is really all you can ask for unless you are the Yankees and maybe the Red Sox. There are too many injuries and poor performances that can happen and derail your playoff chances. I think it has been a great season and looks to continue to be great for the rest of the season, barring any catastrophic injury to someone new. I have enjoyed this season a lot and hope that everyone can enjoy it as well, because it has been good and look to get better.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Supp's On and Other Arbitrary Moves
Jeff Suppan has signed with the Giants to try to make the 25-man roster (report by Schulman). If he makes the roster, he gets $1M contract and probably some incentives based on IP. He also can opt to leave the team should he not make the MLB team out of spring training.
He is the Giant's leading 6th starter alternative now, and, assuming he passes the audience, if you read between the lines in all the press about his acquisition, looks like he can make the 25-man roster out of spring as the long man out of the pen. He is also insurance if, god forbid, any of the starting pitchers are out for any reason. That makes some sense given prior statements by the Giants, and general overall concern over the work put on the arms of the starters in 2010 because of the playoffs and World Series. They might go to Suppan sooner when the game gets out of hand, to reduce the IP load on starters, plus conceivably could start the season with both Bumgarner and Suppan in the bullpen, since the 5th starter isn't needed until in late April, typically, or start Suppan in the rotation initially with Bumgarner in the bullpen, to both ease the workload on the rest of the starters. Or they can really go out there and have 6 starters initially, as I had suggested the Giants do in late 2010 in order to ease the load on the starters plus keep them regularly starting every 6th day.
Dan Runzler now is the second alternative, probably will be placed in AAA to get his inning in there as a starter. That is preferred because, frankly, he was pretty wild as a reliever, though he did at least strike out enough to make that viable. Often, for relievers who are too wild, the Giants in the past have put them into a starter role in order to give them more IP in which to figure out what their problem is, as well as extra work on figuring out another pitch to use, that might help their repertoire. Also, starters have to pitch more slowly and thoughtfully than relievers do, and sometimes slowing things up like that helps the pitcher. Plus, some pitchers need to take off some of the heat off their pitches in order to improve their control, and making them a starter helps to do that.
Arbitration Avoidance
The Giants continued their practice of avoiding arbitration by signing Santiago Casilla (as was rumored to have been basically done the other day of the other announcements for Ross, Sanchez, and Ramirez) to a $1.3M contract and Javier Lopez to a $2.375M contract (where do they get these numbers?). Now they have Andres Torres left to sign ($1.8M offer/$2.6M asking) and reportedly (by Chronicle and probably others) he is very close to signing as well. The Giants apparently wanted to focus on one year deals with everyone in order to get them signed before arbitration, but as I noted the other day, I hope they start on a long term contract with Jonathan Sanchez.
I would also hope for longer deals with Lincecum and Cain as well, but it would be my guess, based on prior preferences, Lincecum's agents will want to wait for a great 2011 to press for more money, and Cain took a big step in 2010, and probably could get more money by showing that was not a fluke in 2011. I am more hopeful for a Cain signing since he loves being a Giant and has planted roots here in SF.
I wouldn't mind deals for Posey and Sandoval, but I would think the Giants would want to see another year out of Posey first and Sandoval's agents will want to be paid for 2009 production, not 2010 production, and there is still the matter of his weighty problems. I also wouldn't mind a deal for Romo, just to get salary certainty for the coming years, but I am OK with waiting too, relievers are harder to value. Lastly, Brian Wilson's deal is over this season, and I think 2012 is his last arbitration year, so maybe another 2 year deal, one contracted year, one option year.
He is the Giant's leading 6th starter alternative now, and, assuming he passes the audience, if you read between the lines in all the press about his acquisition, looks like he can make the 25-man roster out of spring as the long man out of the pen. He is also insurance if, god forbid, any of the starting pitchers are out for any reason. That makes some sense given prior statements by the Giants, and general overall concern over the work put on the arms of the starters in 2010 because of the playoffs and World Series. They might go to Suppan sooner when the game gets out of hand, to reduce the IP load on starters, plus conceivably could start the season with both Bumgarner and Suppan in the bullpen, since the 5th starter isn't needed until in late April, typically, or start Suppan in the rotation initially with Bumgarner in the bullpen, to both ease the workload on the rest of the starters. Or they can really go out there and have 6 starters initially, as I had suggested the Giants do in late 2010 in order to ease the load on the starters plus keep them regularly starting every 6th day.
Dan Runzler now is the second alternative, probably will be placed in AAA to get his inning in there as a starter. That is preferred because, frankly, he was pretty wild as a reliever, though he did at least strike out enough to make that viable. Often, for relievers who are too wild, the Giants in the past have put them into a starter role in order to give them more IP in which to figure out what their problem is, as well as extra work on figuring out another pitch to use, that might help their repertoire. Also, starters have to pitch more slowly and thoughtfully than relievers do, and sometimes slowing things up like that helps the pitcher. Plus, some pitchers need to take off some of the heat off their pitches in order to improve their control, and making them a starter helps to do that.
Arbitration Avoidance
The Giants continued their practice of avoiding arbitration by signing Santiago Casilla (as was rumored to have been basically done the other day of the other announcements for Ross, Sanchez, and Ramirez) to a $1.3M contract and Javier Lopez to a $2.375M contract (where do they get these numbers?). Now they have Andres Torres left to sign ($1.8M offer/$2.6M asking) and reportedly (by Chronicle and probably others) he is very close to signing as well. The Giants apparently wanted to focus on one year deals with everyone in order to get them signed before arbitration, but as I noted the other day, I hope they start on a long term contract with Jonathan Sanchez.
I would also hope for longer deals with Lincecum and Cain as well, but it would be my guess, based on prior preferences, Lincecum's agents will want to wait for a great 2011 to press for more money, and Cain took a big step in 2010, and probably could get more money by showing that was not a fluke in 2011. I am more hopeful for a Cain signing since he loves being a Giant and has planted roots here in SF.
I wouldn't mind deals for Posey and Sandoval, but I would think the Giants would want to see another year out of Posey first and Sandoval's agents will want to be paid for 2009 production, not 2010 production, and there is still the matter of his weighty problems. I also wouldn't mind a deal for Romo, just to get salary certainty for the coming years, but I am OK with waiting too, relievers are harder to value. Lastly, Brian Wilson's deal is over this season, and I think 2012 is his last arbitration year, so maybe another 2 year deal, one contracted year, one option year.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 1-0 in the World Series
Wow, what a game!
Started out bad, in that Lincecum seemed all over the place, but he did what the great pitchers do, limit the damage so I wasn't stressing too badly. Meanwhile, while Lee was giving up no runs, I did not feel like he was the overpowering pitcher everyone was raving about, I thought it was a matter of time before the Giants started stringing hits together. But I never thought that they would do that the extent that they did!
Then the way they came back, reminded me of Game 3 in 2002's World Series when the Giants roared back after the Angel's battered our pitchers and the Giants took the lead - only to lose in the end... So while I don't like using the closer so early generally, this gets back to what I've been saying about Bochy understanding the do or die element that exists in these series but that other managers (koff! Dusty) did not seem to get. Just get the win, worry about tomorrow when it becomes today.
And really, with all the days off between cities plus the rest before the series after the NLCS, Wilson should be OK just from a regular usage basis. In addition, Wilson says that he is capable of pitching everyday - and remember, he has regularly pitched 1+ inning saves - so if he puts in 0.2 inning on Wednesday, he can put in 1.0 inning on Thursday and not really pitch more than usual. Then he rests his arm on Friday before we go to Texas.
And the offense!?! How exciting that Freddy Sanchez and Aubrey Huff had the great games they had! Both their bats were starting to wake up at the end of the NLCS and now they are fully awake. Also Torres got on twice and scored two runs, having our top two guys getting on base really got the offense going. Cody Ross, of course, had to get a clutch hit and contribute a run. And Juan Uribe appears to be waking up as well, hitting a 3-run homer that proved to the margin that made the game a real laugher still, and homering in his second game in a row. Appears Phillies woke up Juan by hitting him in Game 6. That reminds me of Rich Aurilia in the 2002 playoffs, his bat woke when he was buzzed or hit by pitch.
Luckily, given how well Ogando pitched, the Rangers didn't go to him instead of O'Day, else Uribe might not have gotten his 3-run homer. Hopefully the Giants can score enough to keep Ogando on the bench, as well as Neftali Feliz.
Hopefully, Lincecum was only tight, but he has pitched more innings than he ever did before, plus technically was pitching on short rest because of his relief stint in Game 6 of the NLCS. We will probably need him at his best in the next start if we hope to win, can't expect to beat up on Lee again. Though, if Cain is able to win today, Lee might be pitching in Game 4 instead.
With this win, the Giants continue an amazing feat (blogged on by the peerless Andy Baggarly in his ExtraBaggs blog): "the Giants haven't trailed in a postseason series yet. They won their third consecutive Game 1. For all their torture, they still haven't played a true elimination game in 2010." And that's because their 162nd game wasn't an elimination game, they were going to play more games, for if they had lost, then all those damn tie-breaker games would have been put in motion. That was a huge win for the Giants, huge game by Jonathan Sanchez.
Baggarly also noted: "But tonight's victory was important in a few other respects, too. It was their 100th win of the season, which is something few teams get to claim. It also was Bruce Bochy's first World Series victory as a manager. If you've forgotten, Bochy's San Diego Padres were swept by the Yankees in 1998."
Last Baggarly note: Tim Lincecum was allowed to wear his lucky, sweat-stained hat that he has worn since he joined the Giants, almost every game if I recall right. He had to allow a World Series patch to be stitched on the side, though, hope that doesn't destroy the hat when he tries to remove it for future use, or maybe if the Giants win the World Series, he'll finally retire that cap and start with a new cap?
Lastly, I will note that Aubrey Huff's Red Thong has made the cover of today's Wall Street Journal, for those of you who subscribe. He and his thong are the subjects of the WSJ's famous "Middle Column" series of off-beat human interest stories. I'll bet he's proud of that!
Game 2: CJ Wilson vs. Cain
Wow, wonder if Ranger's manager Washington now regrets doing this? Put his third best pitcher up in a must win situation on the road. He appears to have been guided by how each pitcher has done during this season by ERA, but as I noted with my PQS analysis, it actually has been the reverse. It was just some random luck involving DIS starts that bloated their ERA, which really involves luck regarding when the manager takes out the starter and whether his reliever is able to prevent his runners from scoring, and whether his fielders are good or not (like how Vlad didn't get to a lot of balls, or handle them well, but didn't get an error awarded).
But as shut down as Cain has been for us so far, obviously the cautionary tale is yesterday's game by Cliff Lee: no pitcher is untouched forever if he gets enough starts. The good news is that Cain has not pitched in a long time. Unlike Lincecum, he has not had to pitch in more than one game in any series yet and has gotten a lot of rest in-between starts. Of course, all of our pitchers are pitching waaay beyond the innings that they ever did before, so I'm glad that Bochy has gone with the quick hook on them, which keeps the work load on their bodies minimized.
And if Torres, Sanchez and Huff's bats are waking up, that is good news for the offense, as there will be a steady supply of runners on base for Posey, Burrell, Ross, and Uribe. Luckily, as I noted, Wilson is good but not really great. And he might be tiring, he had two well pitched games to start the playoffs, but had a disaster start in his last game.
I would also note that this is his first season starting in a long time, he had been their closer for years, so not only is he beyond his innings like the other starters, but he was way over already during the regular season. However, I would note that among the Ranger's starters, Wilson was probably the best in delivering DOM starts the last two months of the season, so he obviously conditioned his body well during the off-season in order to start this season.
Still, Cain has been very consistent all season long, and was even better than Wilson the last two months, though I would note that Cain faltered in the first game in the San Diego series with a DIS start. Still, before that he had a string of 9 consecutive DOM starts, 13 of 14 DOM starts, almost half the season, that is extremely dominating, to say the least. At least Cain had his hiccup during the regular season and has continued to do well in the playoffs, with a lot of rest. It really looks good for the Giants in this game, though if Wilson is on his game, it will be another tight nail-biter, but still, Cain, like the Giants have been doing all season and all playoffs, probably will give up just a little less runs. Hopefully the bullpen can hold it this time.
Go Giants!
Started out bad, in that Lincecum seemed all over the place, but he did what the great pitchers do, limit the damage so I wasn't stressing too badly. Meanwhile, while Lee was giving up no runs, I did not feel like he was the overpowering pitcher everyone was raving about, I thought it was a matter of time before the Giants started stringing hits together. But I never thought that they would do that the extent that they did!
Then the way they came back, reminded me of Game 3 in 2002's World Series when the Giants roared back after the Angel's battered our pitchers and the Giants took the lead - only to lose in the end... So while I don't like using the closer so early generally, this gets back to what I've been saying about Bochy understanding the do or die element that exists in these series but that other managers (koff! Dusty) did not seem to get. Just get the win, worry about tomorrow when it becomes today.
And really, with all the days off between cities plus the rest before the series after the NLCS, Wilson should be OK just from a regular usage basis. In addition, Wilson says that he is capable of pitching everyday - and remember, he has regularly pitched 1+ inning saves - so if he puts in 0.2 inning on Wednesday, he can put in 1.0 inning on Thursday and not really pitch more than usual. Then he rests his arm on Friday before we go to Texas.
And the offense!?! How exciting that Freddy Sanchez and Aubrey Huff had the great games they had! Both their bats were starting to wake up at the end of the NLCS and now they are fully awake. Also Torres got on twice and scored two runs, having our top two guys getting on base really got the offense going. Cody Ross, of course, had to get a clutch hit and contribute a run. And Juan Uribe appears to be waking up as well, hitting a 3-run homer that proved to the margin that made the game a real laugher still, and homering in his second game in a row. Appears Phillies woke up Juan by hitting him in Game 6. That reminds me of Rich Aurilia in the 2002 playoffs, his bat woke when he was buzzed or hit by pitch.
Luckily, given how well Ogando pitched, the Rangers didn't go to him instead of O'Day, else Uribe might not have gotten his 3-run homer. Hopefully the Giants can score enough to keep Ogando on the bench, as well as Neftali Feliz.
Hopefully, Lincecum was only tight, but he has pitched more innings than he ever did before, plus technically was pitching on short rest because of his relief stint in Game 6 of the NLCS. We will probably need him at his best in the next start if we hope to win, can't expect to beat up on Lee again. Though, if Cain is able to win today, Lee might be pitching in Game 4 instead.
With this win, the Giants continue an amazing feat (blogged on by the peerless Andy Baggarly in his ExtraBaggs blog): "the Giants haven't trailed in a postseason series yet. They won their third consecutive Game 1. For all their torture, they still haven't played a true elimination game in 2010." And that's because their 162nd game wasn't an elimination game, they were going to play more games, for if they had lost, then all those damn tie-breaker games would have been put in motion. That was a huge win for the Giants, huge game by Jonathan Sanchez.
Baggarly also noted: "But tonight's victory was important in a few other respects, too. It was their 100th win of the season, which is something few teams get to claim. It also was Bruce Bochy's first World Series victory as a manager. If you've forgotten, Bochy's San Diego Padres were swept by the Yankees in 1998."
Last Baggarly note: Tim Lincecum was allowed to wear his lucky, sweat-stained hat that he has worn since he joined the Giants, almost every game if I recall right. He had to allow a World Series patch to be stitched on the side, though, hope that doesn't destroy the hat when he tries to remove it for future use, or maybe if the Giants win the World Series, he'll finally retire that cap and start with a new cap?
Lastly, I will note that Aubrey Huff's Red Thong has made the cover of today's Wall Street Journal, for those of you who subscribe. He and his thong are the subjects of the WSJ's famous "Middle Column" series of off-beat human interest stories. I'll bet he's proud of that!
Game 2: CJ Wilson vs. Cain
Wow, wonder if Ranger's manager Washington now regrets doing this? Put his third best pitcher up in a must win situation on the road. He appears to have been guided by how each pitcher has done during this season by ERA, but as I noted with my PQS analysis, it actually has been the reverse. It was just some random luck involving DIS starts that bloated their ERA, which really involves luck regarding when the manager takes out the starter and whether his reliever is able to prevent his runners from scoring, and whether his fielders are good or not (like how Vlad didn't get to a lot of balls, or handle them well, but didn't get an error awarded).
But as shut down as Cain has been for us so far, obviously the cautionary tale is yesterday's game by Cliff Lee: no pitcher is untouched forever if he gets enough starts. The good news is that Cain has not pitched in a long time. Unlike Lincecum, he has not had to pitch in more than one game in any series yet and has gotten a lot of rest in-between starts. Of course, all of our pitchers are pitching waaay beyond the innings that they ever did before, so I'm glad that Bochy has gone with the quick hook on them, which keeps the work load on their bodies minimized.
And if Torres, Sanchez and Huff's bats are waking up, that is good news for the offense, as there will be a steady supply of runners on base for Posey, Burrell, Ross, and Uribe. Luckily, as I noted, Wilson is good but not really great. And he might be tiring, he had two well pitched games to start the playoffs, but had a disaster start in his last game.
I would also note that this is his first season starting in a long time, he had been their closer for years, so not only is he beyond his innings like the other starters, but he was way over already during the regular season. However, I would note that among the Ranger's starters, Wilson was probably the best in delivering DOM starts the last two months of the season, so he obviously conditioned his body well during the off-season in order to start this season.
Still, Cain has been very consistent all season long, and was even better than Wilson the last two months, though I would note that Cain faltered in the first game in the San Diego series with a DIS start. Still, before that he had a string of 9 consecutive DOM starts, 13 of 14 DOM starts, almost half the season, that is extremely dominating, to say the least. At least Cain had his hiccup during the regular season and has continued to do well in the playoffs, with a lot of rest. It really looks good for the Giants in this game, though if Wilson is on his game, it will be another tight nail-biter, but still, Cain, like the Giants have been doing all season and all playoffs, probably will give up just a little less runs. Hopefully the bullpen can hold it this time.
Go Giants!
Friday, March 26, 2010
2010 Spring Transaction Lines: Extensions and Trade
Lots of news and further cuts.
Extensions
The big news is the extensions for Brian Wilson (2 years, $15M) and Jeremey Affeldt (bump up $500K this year, contract for $4.5M in 2011 plus $5M option for 2012 or $500K buyout). The key phrases are cost certainty (Wilson) and holding on to a good player (Affeldt's contract would have been over this season). The worry is that this would make it harder for the Giants to sign the hitter people think the Giants need.
People still worry about the lineup, but as I've been saying for a long while now is that a team built on pitching and fielding excellence - not goodness, but excellence - don't need much of a lineup to win with it. With Sandoval at cleanup (finally) in 2011, and Posey hitting 3rd, we basically only need average type hitters like Schierholt, Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa filling up the lineup in order to win with our pitching and defense.
Plus, looking over the spreadsheet that Lefty provided, we got 9 players costing around $80-85M, leaving 16 at roughly $400K, pushing it to $85-90M. That leaves roughly $10-15M if they bump to $100M budget, which with a better economy and fast growth from MLBAM should be doable, which could get a good hitter if one happens to be available.
And at some point, we have to take the leap of faith that Neukom will come through with the money as he says he would if Sabean makes the baseball case to boost the payroll beyond the normal range. I'm hoping he has sugar daddies whose pockets he can dip into when the time comes.
Frandsen Traded
Frandsen has been traded (Baggs, Hank, Haft) to the Boston Red Sox for a PTBNL or future cash. Hopefully we get a player, as I still think Frandsen could have done something, but it'll probably be cash. The good news for him is that he'll be with his good buddy, Dusty Pedroia, who he has worked out with for the past 6 off-seasons. And the Red Sox, while apparently doing it out of need as Pedroia is having wrist problems right now, wouldn't have gotten him if they didn't think that he couldn't be a good backup guy, and who knows, maybe give Frandsen a chance too, since there is a DH there as well.
Too bad. As I had ruminated somewhere, Frandsen's window of opportunity was the 2008 season and he blew it when he blew out his Achillies tendon. With Sanchez signed for two years and Noonan possibly ready by the end of that contract, plus Crawford and Burriss could be ready by 2011, and Rohlinger already annointed the next Greg Linton/Steve Scarsone, there was no spot for Frandsen anywhere, and he apparently rubbed Giants management the wrong way with his behavior previously.
Still, I think he can be a usable major leaguer. He hit well all the way up the minors - not great but good for each level - and he hit well in the majors the one time they started him regularly and gave him an extended opportunity (late 2007 season). His low strikeout rate and his walk to strikeout ratio was very good, indicative of a prospect who could hit in the majors. He appears to have a good baseball mind and reminds me a bit of Pete Rose toughness, the average type player with no obvious plus skill (except for the subtle bat discipline) but is fine is all aspects.
And those are the players that the Red Sox (and Padres and A's) like to pick up, the guys who hit well in the minors but were never given a real chance to show what they got in the majors. Hopefully Frandsen will get some sort of chance with the Red Sox.
Wellemeyer Pretty Much Annointed 5th Starter
It was reported a few days ago that Bumgarner has been sent down, leaving just Todd Wellemeyer and Kevin Pucetas battling for the 5th starter spot, but as noted by a number of sources (like Hank) Bochy has all but named Wellemeyer the 5th starter. Pucetas has done very well but when battling against a veteran who is not that old and had done well previously, he pretty much would have had to almost no-hit every appearance and strike out a ton of batters to beat out Wellemeyer when Wellemeyer has done as well as he has with a 1.35 ERA this spring.
Plus, Pucetas did not do well at all in AAA last year. Many a pitcher has had a great spring training and then sucked once he pitched in the majors. So there is no guarantee that he would have well had he won the 5th starter spot. Not that Wellemeyer is a guarantee, but when a player has done it before, it raises the odds greatly that he can do it again if pitching well. So Pucetas is looking at either the long-man role, which would not be necessary if the 5th starter isn't starting, or starting in AAA.
This is where the Frandsen story intersects with this story: Wellemeyer is a non-roster invitee and the Giants need to clear a spot on the roster to include him on the 25 man roster. And as I noted before, to open up a spot would mean dropping someone of value, it would be a cut that hurts at least a little. Frandsen being traded clears a spot.
Coincidentally, most of the reports about Frandsen opening up a spot also pointed out that the Giants might need two spots, one for Wellemeyer and one for Mota. So it looks like Mota is closing in on a middle reliever spot in the bullpen.
Wilson Bringing Out his Curveball, Finally
As Hank Schulman blogged, Brian Wilson, emboldened by (or perhaps felt the responsibility with) his new contract and status, brought out his curveball recently in a game. His curveball, which has been missing during his Giants career, was considered one of his plus pitches when he was drafted by the Giants. With him recovering from TJS when he was drafted, I guess he laid off the curveball (or was told to), plus he saw that TV show where Mariano Duncan showed off his cutter and he fell in love with it, thinking he can be like Duncan and just throw one pitch.
Good. That's a sign of a great player. He has great stuff, 100 MPH capable fastball, good cutter, good slider, and now he's bringing back his curveball, like Lincecum when he added a changeup last season, adding on a new pitch even though he was doing very well with what he already had.
This is unlike Rowand, who signs a huge contract with us but then takes two years to figure out that he should start working out in the off-season and getting into shape for playing the whole regular season. All I can say about that is that at least he is doing it now, when we have the chance to do something to get into the playoffs and maybe go deep into it with the pitching we have.
Luckily, we didn't need his bat that much the past two seasons, though it would have been nice last season as that could have gotten us to the playoffs and given us some playoff experience. But I'm not sure how far we could have gotten last year with the lineup we had. I think we should have a much better chance this season, particularly if we will be able to carry Buster Posey on the bench or starting during the playoffs.
Additional Cuts
Rotoworld.com reported that the Giants optioned Darren Ford to AA Richmond Flying Squirrels and Francisco Peguero to Augusta, plus sent Jesus Guzman and Tony Armas to minor league camp for assignment.
Ford has been the eye-opener this spring, hitting, fielding, and running his way into the hearts of Giants fans. Unfortunately, he's already 24 years old, having spent 3 seasons in Advance A-ball, so he's too old to be considered a good prospect, but if he does well in AA this year, and AAA next year, he would only be 26 years old in 2012 if he makes the majors.
People worry too much about whether a prospect is a good player or not. I mean, of course, we all want that, but we also forget that every team needs their OK players who can play OK at a position for us, while our good players lead the way to the pennant. While I wouldn't mind having a good player at every position, I know that's not realistic either, and if Ford can be a nice leadoff hitter who plays great defense in our enormous CF at AT&T Park, that would be a great and more importantly CHEAP addition to the team.
So, so what if he's old for a level, if he's showing something in spring training, that means he has something that is good enough, and maybe he can do well in AA, then AAA, then the majors.
The guy to look at long-term at CF, though, is apparently Francisco Peguero. The Giants really like him, just added him to their 40 man roster this off-season, and Baseball America ranked him 10th among Giants prospects for 2010. He'll be 22 this June, so he's getting a little old to be a good prospect at Augusta, but if he continues hitting like he did last season, he should move up to San Jose by mid-season. He's got some good speed, plus arm, so he's great defensively in CF, is usually able to put the bat on the ball (though like many, unable to take a walk), but that is OK if he is hitting to get on base (.304 career BA).
Extensions
The big news is the extensions for Brian Wilson (2 years, $15M) and Jeremey Affeldt (bump up $500K this year, contract for $4.5M in 2011 plus $5M option for 2012 or $500K buyout). The key phrases are cost certainty (Wilson) and holding on to a good player (Affeldt's contract would have been over this season). The worry is that this would make it harder for the Giants to sign the hitter people think the Giants need.
People still worry about the lineup, but as I've been saying for a long while now is that a team built on pitching and fielding excellence - not goodness, but excellence - don't need much of a lineup to win with it. With Sandoval at cleanup (finally) in 2011, and Posey hitting 3rd, we basically only need average type hitters like Schierholt, Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa filling up the lineup in order to win with our pitching and defense.
Plus, looking over the spreadsheet that Lefty provided, we got 9 players costing around $80-85M, leaving 16 at roughly $400K, pushing it to $85-90M. That leaves roughly $10-15M if they bump to $100M budget, which with a better economy and fast growth from MLBAM should be doable, which could get a good hitter if one happens to be available.
And at some point, we have to take the leap of faith that Neukom will come through with the money as he says he would if Sabean makes the baseball case to boost the payroll beyond the normal range. I'm hoping he has sugar daddies whose pockets he can dip into when the time comes.
Frandsen Traded
Frandsen has been traded (Baggs, Hank, Haft) to the Boston Red Sox for a PTBNL or future cash. Hopefully we get a player, as I still think Frandsen could have done something, but it'll probably be cash. The good news for him is that he'll be with his good buddy, Dusty Pedroia, who he has worked out with for the past 6 off-seasons. And the Red Sox, while apparently doing it out of need as Pedroia is having wrist problems right now, wouldn't have gotten him if they didn't think that he couldn't be a good backup guy, and who knows, maybe give Frandsen a chance too, since there is a DH there as well.
Too bad. As I had ruminated somewhere, Frandsen's window of opportunity was the 2008 season and he blew it when he blew out his Achillies tendon. With Sanchez signed for two years and Noonan possibly ready by the end of that contract, plus Crawford and Burriss could be ready by 2011, and Rohlinger already annointed the next Greg Linton/Steve Scarsone, there was no spot for Frandsen anywhere, and he apparently rubbed Giants management the wrong way with his behavior previously.
Still, I think he can be a usable major leaguer. He hit well all the way up the minors - not great but good for each level - and he hit well in the majors the one time they started him regularly and gave him an extended opportunity (late 2007 season). His low strikeout rate and his walk to strikeout ratio was very good, indicative of a prospect who could hit in the majors. He appears to have a good baseball mind and reminds me a bit of Pete Rose toughness, the average type player with no obvious plus skill (except for the subtle bat discipline) but is fine is all aspects.
And those are the players that the Red Sox (and Padres and A's) like to pick up, the guys who hit well in the minors but were never given a real chance to show what they got in the majors. Hopefully Frandsen will get some sort of chance with the Red Sox.
Wellemeyer Pretty Much Annointed 5th Starter
It was reported a few days ago that Bumgarner has been sent down, leaving just Todd Wellemeyer and Kevin Pucetas battling for the 5th starter spot, but as noted by a number of sources (like Hank) Bochy has all but named Wellemeyer the 5th starter. Pucetas has done very well but when battling against a veteran who is not that old and had done well previously, he pretty much would have had to almost no-hit every appearance and strike out a ton of batters to beat out Wellemeyer when Wellemeyer has done as well as he has with a 1.35 ERA this spring.
Plus, Pucetas did not do well at all in AAA last year. Many a pitcher has had a great spring training and then sucked once he pitched in the majors. So there is no guarantee that he would have well had he won the 5th starter spot. Not that Wellemeyer is a guarantee, but when a player has done it before, it raises the odds greatly that he can do it again if pitching well. So Pucetas is looking at either the long-man role, which would not be necessary if the 5th starter isn't starting, or starting in AAA.
This is where the Frandsen story intersects with this story: Wellemeyer is a non-roster invitee and the Giants need to clear a spot on the roster to include him on the 25 man roster. And as I noted before, to open up a spot would mean dropping someone of value, it would be a cut that hurts at least a little. Frandsen being traded clears a spot.
Coincidentally, most of the reports about Frandsen opening up a spot also pointed out that the Giants might need two spots, one for Wellemeyer and one for Mota. So it looks like Mota is closing in on a middle reliever spot in the bullpen.
Wilson Bringing Out his Curveball, Finally
As Hank Schulman blogged, Brian Wilson, emboldened by (or perhaps felt the responsibility with) his new contract and status, brought out his curveball recently in a game. His curveball, which has been missing during his Giants career, was considered one of his plus pitches when he was drafted by the Giants. With him recovering from TJS when he was drafted, I guess he laid off the curveball (or was told to), plus he saw that TV show where Mariano Duncan showed off his cutter and he fell in love with it, thinking he can be like Duncan and just throw one pitch.
Good. That's a sign of a great player. He has great stuff, 100 MPH capable fastball, good cutter, good slider, and now he's bringing back his curveball, like Lincecum when he added a changeup last season, adding on a new pitch even though he was doing very well with what he already had.
This is unlike Rowand, who signs a huge contract with us but then takes two years to figure out that he should start working out in the off-season and getting into shape for playing the whole regular season. All I can say about that is that at least he is doing it now, when we have the chance to do something to get into the playoffs and maybe go deep into it with the pitching we have.
Luckily, we didn't need his bat that much the past two seasons, though it would have been nice last season as that could have gotten us to the playoffs and given us some playoff experience. But I'm not sure how far we could have gotten last year with the lineup we had. I think we should have a much better chance this season, particularly if we will be able to carry Buster Posey on the bench or starting during the playoffs.
Additional Cuts
Rotoworld.com reported that the Giants optioned Darren Ford to AA Richmond Flying Squirrels and Francisco Peguero to Augusta, plus sent Jesus Guzman and Tony Armas to minor league camp for assignment.
Ford has been the eye-opener this spring, hitting, fielding, and running his way into the hearts of Giants fans. Unfortunately, he's already 24 years old, having spent 3 seasons in Advance A-ball, so he's too old to be considered a good prospect, but if he does well in AA this year, and AAA next year, he would only be 26 years old in 2012 if he makes the majors.
People worry too much about whether a prospect is a good player or not. I mean, of course, we all want that, but we also forget that every team needs their OK players who can play OK at a position for us, while our good players lead the way to the pennant. While I wouldn't mind having a good player at every position, I know that's not realistic either, and if Ford can be a nice leadoff hitter who plays great defense in our enormous CF at AT&T Park, that would be a great and more importantly CHEAP addition to the team.
So, so what if he's old for a level, if he's showing something in spring training, that means he has something that is good enough, and maybe he can do well in AA, then AAA, then the majors.
The guy to look at long-term at CF, though, is apparently Francisco Peguero. The Giants really like him, just added him to their 40 man roster this off-season, and Baseball America ranked him 10th among Giants prospects for 2010. He'll be 22 this June, so he's getting a little old to be a good prospect at Augusta, but if he continues hitting like he did last season, he should move up to San Jose by mid-season. He's got some good speed, plus arm, so he's great defensively in CF, is usually able to put the bat on the ball (though like many, unable to take a walk), but that is OK if he is hitting to get on base (.304 career BA).
Monday, February 01, 2010
Giants Weekend News: Wilson Agrees; Kim Comeback
As could have been easily predicted, the Giants signed closer Brian Wilson to a contract for the mid-point between the Giants' $4.0M offer and Wilson's $4.875 request, or $4,437,500, as reported by a number of sources, including sfgiants.com. The difference was so little between the two that this compromise was the obvious thing to do.
That represents over a 9-fold increase in salary for Wilson, who earned $480,000 last season. As a super two (due to two long stretches in the majors in his first two seasons, then the last two full seasons), he reached arbitration sooner than he normally would have and gained about $4M in pay due to this designation. Wilson will now easily be able to afford the gourmet pre-cooked foods pre-prepared for him to eat that Zito had introduced him to when they trained together last off-season.
Giants Handling Arbitration Like Usual: Get'em Signed
The Giants have handled each of their arbitration cases from low to high. First Medders for $820K, almost doubling his $475K salary fro 2009. Then Jonathan Sanchez for $2.1M, nearly quintupling his $455K salary in 2009, plus performance bonuses. Now Wilson for $4.4375M, over 9 times his $480K salary in 2009.
It is now down to Lincecum, who should get at minimum the highest salary for a player in his experience status (super-two), either the $10.5M mid-point between the Giants $8M and Lincecum's requested $13M, up to their figure if they decide to go to arbitration and win the case. The Giants have rarely had to go to arbitration, prefering to settle with the player before the unpleasantries that attend these arbitration hearings.
One of the few they had to go to was with A.J. Pierzynski, where it was obvious that they were going to lose, they way under offered. As I and a number of people discussed and debated on a previous post, the general feeling is that the Giants underbid by at least $1-2M, and that if the case were to go to a hearing, Lincecum would win the case and get $13M. I would expect the Giants to try to negotiate something in the $11-12M range plus performance bonuses that could push Lincecum above the $13M as an incentive to get him to settle beforehand.
I think the Giants did about as well as they could have done with Lincecum. Too low a bid, and you risk losing the case easily to the player. Too high a bid, and you have to pay that much more in salary to the player, whether through settling or going to arbitration.
$8M is in the range where it had to be given that Ryan Howard got $10M, which is the current record salary, but as we opined, on the low end. Arguments could be made that traditionally pitchers are not valued as greatly as position players, plus there is the salary deflation that appears to be happening for players due to the bad recession of 2009, but to me the arbitrators have been biased towards the players in general, and thus, as much as it might hurt to raise their offer, I think you just have to err on the high side rather than the low side.
Kim Comeback
Former All-Star and D-back closer, Byung-Hyun Kim, signed a minor league contract with the Giants and will join them in spring training. He last pitched (poorly) in the majors in 2007, the last of 9 seasons spent in the majors. He took a breather for a couple of years in Korea and is now 31 years old, re-energized and refreshed.
He had a 3.53 career ERA as a reliever, so he would be quite an addition to the bullpen if he is anywhere near as good now. He wanted desperately to be a starter and that probably is what helped caused him to do so poorly in his later years as he desperately held on to trying to win a starting rotation spot instead of focusing on actually pitching well. And with his experience as a closer, if he is anywhere near as good as he was as a closer, he would be a great right-handed complement to Affeldt in the set-up role, with Romo and Runzler providing very good backup there should either have a bad outing.
And if he doesn't do well, it would not have costed the Giants much, probably just for room and board during spring training, I don't think any of the players are paid anything for attending spring training, just per diem and getting housing. It is the type of low risk and potentially high reward situations that the Giants should be seeking at this point.
In addition, Horacio Ramirez was signed to a minor league contract as well. He pitched well enough when he was with Atlanta, but was never one to strike out many batters and thus ended up walking way too many to be effective in the long run, thus far. Also he had an injury in 2004 that took away half his season, plus injuries in 2006 and 2007 that took significant chunks of the season away as well. His last effective partial season as a starter was in 2006, and he hasn't really been that good as a reliever in the three seasons since. He is, at best, going to be a backup starter/reliever in AAA who would only come up if our #5 starter is unable to perform well enough (whether injury or poorly performing) or if one of our relievers are injured or performing horribly and I would not bet on him reaching 40 wins in his career (he's at 39 right now).
Given that the Giants are looking for someone to fill a bullpen spot (plus you never know if Runzler might have a set-back, much like Wilson did previously, in spring training, and they would need to fill another spot in the bullpen), the Giants should be inviting at least another 2-3 of these types of signings. Santiago Casilla and Horacio Ramirez are two of the better known names, but they haven't had any success at the major league level for years now, so I just see them as filler unless they see something they can fix in their mechanics or repertoire that would boost their performance.
Kim at least was very successful at one point and thus could come back and do it again, given that he should have more experience now and is not distracted by his obsession with winning a starting position in the rotation (he is content to be competing for a bullpen spot apparently). He has also not pitched in any organized baseball league for two years now, so hopefully any of the injuries he has had in the past 5 years are fully healed.
The odds are long against him, but the Giants have pulled a rabbit out of the hat before with Yabu doing well for us, so it is not entirely improbable. And, again, it does not cost much to give him a shot and presumably our scouts have checked him out and OKed him.
That represents over a 9-fold increase in salary for Wilson, who earned $480,000 last season. As a super two (due to two long stretches in the majors in his first two seasons, then the last two full seasons), he reached arbitration sooner than he normally would have and gained about $4M in pay due to this designation. Wilson will now easily be able to afford the gourmet pre-cooked foods pre-prepared for him to eat that Zito had introduced him to when they trained together last off-season.
Giants Handling Arbitration Like Usual: Get'em Signed
The Giants have handled each of their arbitration cases from low to high. First Medders for $820K, almost doubling his $475K salary fro 2009. Then Jonathan Sanchez for $2.1M, nearly quintupling his $455K salary in 2009, plus performance bonuses. Now Wilson for $4.4375M, over 9 times his $480K salary in 2009.
It is now down to Lincecum, who should get at minimum the highest salary for a player in his experience status (super-two), either the $10.5M mid-point between the Giants $8M and Lincecum's requested $13M, up to their figure if they decide to go to arbitration and win the case. The Giants have rarely had to go to arbitration, prefering to settle with the player before the unpleasantries that attend these arbitration hearings.
One of the few they had to go to was with A.J. Pierzynski, where it was obvious that they were going to lose, they way under offered. As I and a number of people discussed and debated on a previous post, the general feeling is that the Giants underbid by at least $1-2M, and that if the case were to go to a hearing, Lincecum would win the case and get $13M. I would expect the Giants to try to negotiate something in the $11-12M range plus performance bonuses that could push Lincecum above the $13M as an incentive to get him to settle beforehand.
I think the Giants did about as well as they could have done with Lincecum. Too low a bid, and you risk losing the case easily to the player. Too high a bid, and you have to pay that much more in salary to the player, whether through settling or going to arbitration.
$8M is in the range where it had to be given that Ryan Howard got $10M, which is the current record salary, but as we opined, on the low end. Arguments could be made that traditionally pitchers are not valued as greatly as position players, plus there is the salary deflation that appears to be happening for players due to the bad recession of 2009, but to me the arbitrators have been biased towards the players in general, and thus, as much as it might hurt to raise their offer, I think you just have to err on the high side rather than the low side.
Kim Comeback
Former All-Star and D-back closer, Byung-Hyun Kim, signed a minor league contract with the Giants and will join them in spring training. He last pitched (poorly) in the majors in 2007, the last of 9 seasons spent in the majors. He took a breather for a couple of years in Korea and is now 31 years old, re-energized and refreshed.
He had a 3.53 career ERA as a reliever, so he would be quite an addition to the bullpen if he is anywhere near as good now. He wanted desperately to be a starter and that probably is what helped caused him to do so poorly in his later years as he desperately held on to trying to win a starting rotation spot instead of focusing on actually pitching well. And with his experience as a closer, if he is anywhere near as good as he was as a closer, he would be a great right-handed complement to Affeldt in the set-up role, with Romo and Runzler providing very good backup there should either have a bad outing.
And if he doesn't do well, it would not have costed the Giants much, probably just for room and board during spring training, I don't think any of the players are paid anything for attending spring training, just per diem and getting housing. It is the type of low risk and potentially high reward situations that the Giants should be seeking at this point.
In addition, Horacio Ramirez was signed to a minor league contract as well. He pitched well enough when he was with Atlanta, but was never one to strike out many batters and thus ended up walking way too many to be effective in the long run, thus far. Also he had an injury in 2004 that took away half his season, plus injuries in 2006 and 2007 that took significant chunks of the season away as well. His last effective partial season as a starter was in 2006, and he hasn't really been that good as a reliever in the three seasons since. He is, at best, going to be a backup starter/reliever in AAA who would only come up if our #5 starter is unable to perform well enough (whether injury or poorly performing) or if one of our relievers are injured or performing horribly and I would not bet on him reaching 40 wins in his career (he's at 39 right now).
Given that the Giants are looking for someone to fill a bullpen spot (plus you never know if Runzler might have a set-back, much like Wilson did previously, in spring training, and they would need to fill another spot in the bullpen), the Giants should be inviting at least another 2-3 of these types of signings. Santiago Casilla and Horacio Ramirez are two of the better known names, but they haven't had any success at the major league level for years now, so I just see them as filler unless they see something they can fix in their mechanics or repertoire that would boost their performance.
Kim at least was very successful at one point and thus could come back and do it again, given that he should have more experience now and is not distracted by his obsession with winning a starting position in the rotation (he is content to be competing for a bullpen spot apparently). He has also not pitched in any organized baseball league for two years now, so hopefully any of the injuries he has had in the past 5 years are fully healed.
The odds are long against him, but the Giants have pulled a rabbit out of the hat before with Yabu doing well for us, so it is not entirely improbable. And, again, it does not cost much to give him a shot and presumably our scouts have checked him out and OKed him.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Lincecum and Giants exchange arbitration figures: $13M and $8M
As reported by various sources - Mercury, Chronicle - the Giants and Lincecum submitted their arbitration figures. The Giants offered $8M and Lincecum's camp asked for $13M.
Giants Thoughts
The $8M is very low compared to the figures that has been bandied about as possibilities (somebody seriously suggested $23M), but people have to remember that this number is also partly a negotiation ploy. Once the numbers are submitted, then the mid-way point becomes the area where the negotiation starts. Still, I find it to be a bit low. Ryan Howard had the highest first year away with $10M, so $9M would have been more reasonable I think, given the general impression that hitters are worth more because they play every day.
The $13M also seems low to observers as well. It is speculated on the Merc that this relatively low figure could be influenced by the possibility that Lincecum's agent believes that the Giants would not be willing to give them what they want, resulting in no settlement before the meeting, and thus they have to present a figure that they can win in arbitration.
Historically, Sabean has tried to avoid arbitration. They have already done that with Medders and Jonathan Sanchez, who is reported to have received a $2.1M contract for 2010. And Brian Wilson looks like a done deal, he asked for $4.875M while the Giants offered $4M, so they will probably agree on a deal around $4.5M, maybe a smidge less if they take the halfway point.
Lincecum, however, is another matter. With the wide difference of $5M, it is not a situation where you simply split the middle and agree on a contract for $10.5M. Clearly, both sides feel that they are about right with their figures, and with such a chasm between the two figures, it might have to go into arbitration. Particularly since the $13M is not that onerous a figure, the Giants might be OK with that as the losing amount, viewing the arbitrator's selection as a win-win scenario. Lincecum's side might view it the same too, as with inflation and two Cy Youngs versus the Ryan Howard comparision case, $8M seems too low, and thus their $13M seems like a lock, as it is high but not that high.
The Giants have traditionally avoided arbitration because they don't want to get into any negative attacks plus settling beforehand gives you control whereas putting your fate in the arbitrator's hands has been something most teams should have avoided as they lost badly.
However, they don't really have to be negative, they can just quote what I wrote above and say that he's great, yes, unprecedented, yes, but pitchers are traditionally not worth as much as a hitter on the free agency market, and Ryan Howard is the comparison case at $10M, as he was a super-two and won both the Rookie of the Year award and MVP award plus was 5th in MVP that season, and in addition the market has dropped in price this off-season, so they had 10% sliced off for a starting pitcher, and 10% sliced off for the poor market this off-season.
I think it behooves the Lincecum camp to sign an extension much like the King Felix Hernandez deal for 5 years and $78M. The only problem is that he would probably want more than Felix got since he has won two Cy Young awards, making the final contract more like 5 years at $90-100M. I don't think the Giants want to take on that much risk in a contract (and I certainly wouldn't want them to), particularly in light of Lincecum's slight falter at the end of the season plus there were talks that his velocity went down some late in the season.
However, they might be willing to go for a 4 year contract plus an option year for the 5th year that vests based on IP by Lincecum. That probably would be in the $70M range, which would be more palatable a risk, though still a huge risk.
It will be interesting what happens, but I expect the Giants to try to sign him in the $11-12M range with no extension.
Giants Thoughts
The $8M is very low compared to the figures that has been bandied about as possibilities (somebody seriously suggested $23M), but people have to remember that this number is also partly a negotiation ploy. Once the numbers are submitted, then the mid-way point becomes the area where the negotiation starts. Still, I find it to be a bit low. Ryan Howard had the highest first year away with $10M, so $9M would have been more reasonable I think, given the general impression that hitters are worth more because they play every day.
The $13M also seems low to observers as well. It is speculated on the Merc that this relatively low figure could be influenced by the possibility that Lincecum's agent believes that the Giants would not be willing to give them what they want, resulting in no settlement before the meeting, and thus they have to present a figure that they can win in arbitration.
Historically, Sabean has tried to avoid arbitration. They have already done that with Medders and Jonathan Sanchez, who is reported to have received a $2.1M contract for 2010. And Brian Wilson looks like a done deal, he asked for $4.875M while the Giants offered $4M, so they will probably agree on a deal around $4.5M, maybe a smidge less if they take the halfway point.
Lincecum, however, is another matter. With the wide difference of $5M, it is not a situation where you simply split the middle and agree on a contract for $10.5M. Clearly, both sides feel that they are about right with their figures, and with such a chasm between the two figures, it might have to go into arbitration. Particularly since the $13M is not that onerous a figure, the Giants might be OK with that as the losing amount, viewing the arbitrator's selection as a win-win scenario. Lincecum's side might view it the same too, as with inflation and two Cy Youngs versus the Ryan Howard comparision case, $8M seems too low, and thus their $13M seems like a lock, as it is high but not that high.
The Giants have traditionally avoided arbitration because they don't want to get into any negative attacks plus settling beforehand gives you control whereas putting your fate in the arbitrator's hands has been something most teams should have avoided as they lost badly.
However, they don't really have to be negative, they can just quote what I wrote above and say that he's great, yes, unprecedented, yes, but pitchers are traditionally not worth as much as a hitter on the free agency market, and Ryan Howard is the comparison case at $10M, as he was a super-two and won both the Rookie of the Year award and MVP award plus was 5th in MVP that season, and in addition the market has dropped in price this off-season, so they had 10% sliced off for a starting pitcher, and 10% sliced off for the poor market this off-season.
I think it behooves the Lincecum camp to sign an extension much like the King Felix Hernandez deal for 5 years and $78M. The only problem is that he would probably want more than Felix got since he has won two Cy Young awards, making the final contract more like 5 years at $90-100M. I don't think the Giants want to take on that much risk in a contract (and I certainly wouldn't want them to), particularly in light of Lincecum's slight falter at the end of the season plus there were talks that his velocity went down some late in the season.
However, they might be willing to go for a 4 year contract plus an option year for the 5th year that vests based on IP by Lincecum. That probably would be in the $70M range, which would be more palatable a risk, though still a huge risk.
It will be interesting what happens, but I expect the Giants to try to sign him in the $11-12M range with no extension.
Friday, May 22, 2009
2009 Giants: Facing the Mariners
Tough series in SD, it was pretty much a worse case scenario. Now the Giants have lost 3 in a row, getting swept by the lowly 'Dres and have lost 7 of 8, to fall to 19-21, and the KNBR morning show, or specifically Paulie Mac, is in a huge snit over the offense. And it don't look to get any better going forward, we face two of Seattle's best starters, Washburn and King Felix, and basically a rookie who has pitched well thus far this season.
The sky is now not suddenly falling. The offense is what it is, it is not as good as other teams. We've all known this. However, as it has shown so far this season, it doesn't need to be with the pitching we got in order to be competitive, which we have been for the most part, being around .500 for the most part all season.
Sure, I would rather be winning hand over fist, and challenging for the title. But that is not the goal for this season. Neukom has said this for a long while now: the goals for the team are that we're going to be competitive in 2009, contending in 2010. We are competitive, as a team. Anything beyond that - like our recent run at LA - is the gravy on top.
Game 1: Randy Johnson vs. Jason Vargas
Johnson has been too inconsistent, and basically bad, to hope to come out with a win. However, he's facing basically a rookie, who you never know how they will do, though Vargas has pitched well enough in his first two starts, after starting the season in the minors, and relieving when he was first called up. He's not going to last long, probably, only going 5 IP in each of those two starts, so we should see the bullpen, which has been pretty good overall. We would have to get to him early to get the worse relievers to come up, otherwise they have a good relieving corps, led by, of all people, former Giant David Aardsma, who seems to have finally figured it out, after all these years. Still, I have to think this is probably a loss.
Game 2: Matt Cain vs. Jarrod Washburn
On the surface, it looks like this should be a tough game, both have roughly the same ERA. However, he has had two bad starts in a row, so that gives some hope. In addition, he hasn't pitched well in SAFECO since joining the team, so there is that too. However, he might have suffered from the yips, since last year was his first season with the team. And he is improved this year at home. It would seem that we have a better than 50/50 chance to win, but not much better than that, so it's basically a coin toss.
Game 3: Barry Zito vs. Felix Hernandez
This would have looked like a sure loss previously, but with Zito's resurgence, it is at least a tough game now. Plus, King Felix hasn't been so royal lately, giving up 6 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts (though no runs in the other game). And he gave up 5 runs to the A's, who have been similarly challenged offensively as the Giants. Like the Cain start, it would seem that we have a better than 50/50 chance to win, but not much better than that, so it's basically a coin toss.
Giants Thoughts
The Giants look like they are probably facing another series loss, with a strong chance to be swept again. A big factor for us this weekend is whether Jesus can save our offense: Jesus Guzman, that is.
Guzman was brought up yesterday, as the Giants sent down Steve Holm again; Pablo Sandoval is the backup catcher once again. I view the call-up of Guzman as a concession to fans, though it's also could be because Schierholtz hadn't been able to do well in his part time role thus far. Ideally, we would have used the DH to give Schierholtz more consistent ABs to see what he can do.
Instead, now we will see Guzman in that role, though I noticed talk of having Molina DH in the third game, which would mean Sandoval catches, and Guzman would have to play a position, probably either 1B or 3B. Since King Felix is a RHP, I would have to think Guzman plays 3B, his position from last year, while Ishikawa plays 1B, but if the Giants decide otherwise, Ishikawa might not even get one start in Seattle, his hometown, as the first two starters are tough lefties. Not that he has deserved it, but just saying.
As I've noted elsewhere, Guzman's topline numbers are nice, but his MLE is no better than what Ishikawa put up last season in AAA in similar amount of AB's. If he's replacing Aurilia in the platoon at 1B, then that is OK with me, but for now, it should be a platoon between Ishikawa and Guzman, and should Guzman just rakes, then Ishikawa could find himself with less and less starts, unless he can start hitting with the power he has done previously.
It could be time for our offense to light up. We were challenged in SD, as it is an extreme pitcher's park, and we faced two pitchers who have been a nemesis for us, in Young and Gaudin. And Correia, as much as Giants fans sometimes deride him, he was a good starter for us often enough that I respect his abilities. He had a good game, you just have to tip your hat to him, that is going to happen.
However, a number of hitters have been either heating up or been hot, until SD that is. Rowand has taken to the leadoff spot and been raking. Sandoval had been on a tear for a while, one difficult series in SD is no reason to think he's cooled off. Ishikawa had been on a mini-streak of getting on base and some hitting, until yesterday's game. Winn and Lewis have been on a streak as well. And Molina has been, well, big money lately. I think this series will be a better indication of the offense than the SD series, even though we are facing tough pitchers in this series too.
And people would not have such consternation right now if one player had done his job: Brian Wilson. He has a 9.53 ERA, three losses and two blown saves in his past six appearances. Had he done his job, two of those losses would have probably been wins and we'd be 21-19 right now, and fans would not be grabbing for their pitchforks.
And really, is 19-21 the end of the world? The team will go through bad streaks, it not really that good. And we all knew this going in. Sure, it does not feel good when the pitching does well and the offense doesn't back them up. However, a number of the losses were because the pitching let us down when the offense did well, including knocking out Johan Santana early. I didn't recall hearing a call to revamp the whole starting rotation because of that one bad streak there. This is just a bad streak for the offense, and since it's not that good, there will be more of those than for the starting rotation. Still, the rotation had that bad streak early in the season, and just had another bad streak. It will happen.
The sky is now not suddenly falling. The offense is what it is, it is not as good as other teams. We've all known this. However, as it has shown so far this season, it doesn't need to be with the pitching we got in order to be competitive, which we have been for the most part, being around .500 for the most part all season.
Sure, I would rather be winning hand over fist, and challenging for the title. But that is not the goal for this season. Neukom has said this for a long while now: the goals for the team are that we're going to be competitive in 2009, contending in 2010. We are competitive, as a team. Anything beyond that - like our recent run at LA - is the gravy on top.
Game 1: Randy Johnson vs. Jason Vargas
Johnson has been too inconsistent, and basically bad, to hope to come out with a win. However, he's facing basically a rookie, who you never know how they will do, though Vargas has pitched well enough in his first two starts, after starting the season in the minors, and relieving when he was first called up. He's not going to last long, probably, only going 5 IP in each of those two starts, so we should see the bullpen, which has been pretty good overall. We would have to get to him early to get the worse relievers to come up, otherwise they have a good relieving corps, led by, of all people, former Giant David Aardsma, who seems to have finally figured it out, after all these years. Still, I have to think this is probably a loss.
Game 2: Matt Cain vs. Jarrod Washburn
On the surface, it looks like this should be a tough game, both have roughly the same ERA. However, he has had two bad starts in a row, so that gives some hope. In addition, he hasn't pitched well in SAFECO since joining the team, so there is that too. However, he might have suffered from the yips, since last year was his first season with the team. And he is improved this year at home. It would seem that we have a better than 50/50 chance to win, but not much better than that, so it's basically a coin toss.
Game 3: Barry Zito vs. Felix Hernandez
This would have looked like a sure loss previously, but with Zito's resurgence, it is at least a tough game now. Plus, King Felix hasn't been so royal lately, giving up 6 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts (though no runs in the other game). And he gave up 5 runs to the A's, who have been similarly challenged offensively as the Giants. Like the Cain start, it would seem that we have a better than 50/50 chance to win, but not much better than that, so it's basically a coin toss.
Giants Thoughts
The Giants look like they are probably facing another series loss, with a strong chance to be swept again. A big factor for us this weekend is whether Jesus can save our offense: Jesus Guzman, that is.
Guzman was brought up yesterday, as the Giants sent down Steve Holm again; Pablo Sandoval is the backup catcher once again. I view the call-up of Guzman as a concession to fans, though it's also could be because Schierholtz hadn't been able to do well in his part time role thus far. Ideally, we would have used the DH to give Schierholtz more consistent ABs to see what he can do.
Instead, now we will see Guzman in that role, though I noticed talk of having Molina DH in the third game, which would mean Sandoval catches, and Guzman would have to play a position, probably either 1B or 3B. Since King Felix is a RHP, I would have to think Guzman plays 3B, his position from last year, while Ishikawa plays 1B, but if the Giants decide otherwise, Ishikawa might not even get one start in Seattle, his hometown, as the first two starters are tough lefties. Not that he has deserved it, but just saying.
As I've noted elsewhere, Guzman's topline numbers are nice, but his MLE is no better than what Ishikawa put up last season in AAA in similar amount of AB's. If he's replacing Aurilia in the platoon at 1B, then that is OK with me, but for now, it should be a platoon between Ishikawa and Guzman, and should Guzman just rakes, then Ishikawa could find himself with less and less starts, unless he can start hitting with the power he has done previously.
It could be time for our offense to light up. We were challenged in SD, as it is an extreme pitcher's park, and we faced two pitchers who have been a nemesis for us, in Young and Gaudin. And Correia, as much as Giants fans sometimes deride him, he was a good starter for us often enough that I respect his abilities. He had a good game, you just have to tip your hat to him, that is going to happen.
However, a number of hitters have been either heating up or been hot, until SD that is. Rowand has taken to the leadoff spot and been raking. Sandoval had been on a tear for a while, one difficult series in SD is no reason to think he's cooled off. Ishikawa had been on a mini-streak of getting on base and some hitting, until yesterday's game. Winn and Lewis have been on a streak as well. And Molina has been, well, big money lately. I think this series will be a better indication of the offense than the SD series, even though we are facing tough pitchers in this series too.
And people would not have such consternation right now if one player had done his job: Brian Wilson. He has a 9.53 ERA, three losses and two blown saves in his past six appearances. Had he done his job, two of those losses would have probably been wins and we'd be 21-19 right now, and fans would not be grabbing for their pitchforks.
And really, is 19-21 the end of the world? The team will go through bad streaks, it not really that good. And we all knew this going in. Sure, it does not feel good when the pitching does well and the offense doesn't back them up. However, a number of the losses were because the pitching let us down when the offense did well, including knocking out Johan Santana early. I didn't recall hearing a call to revamp the whole starting rotation because of that one bad streak there. This is just a bad streak for the offense, and since it's not that good, there will be more of those than for the starting rotation. Still, the rotation had that bad streak early in the season, and just had another bad streak. It will happen.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Good Report on Frandsen Plus Rumors and Speculations
John Sickels, a minor league expert, wrote in his Minor League Ball blog the following about Kevin Frandsen:
Kevin Frandsen, SS, San Francisco Giants: Looks healthy which is the important thing after missing the season due to a torn achilles. Line drive bat, hits to the opposite field, hustles, won't have much home run power. Played shortstop down here and looked fine, can handle second base no problem defensively.Still, Sickels thinks Kevin is a 2B in full-time play.
Baggarly's Back
Andy Baggarly had a juicy post on Giants rumors and he's not even at the GM meetings.
- The biggest news, as Andy notes: Giants have interest in Rafael Furcal. This makes sense, much like how the acquisiton of Rowand made sense: add another strong vet to the mix. In Rowand's case, it allowed Schierholtz to gain another year of experience at AAA, and Lewis backed up Roberts really well, with Schierholtz as the second alternative had the need arise. In this case, this sets up SS, with Frandsen and Burriss fighting for 2B, and if both do well enough, Frandsen slides to 3B, with Sandoval sticking to 1B. Also, as Baggarly also notes, he would lead off, allowing us to bat Lewis in the middle (though I was envisioning Burriss in the leadoff spot). Plus we steal him from the D-gers, though they do have Ivan DeJesus and Chin-Lung Hu in the wings (however, DeJesus looks terrible in AFL according to Sickels and Hu didn't do well in majors last year).
And this works even if injury prone Furcal - he's 31 next year and has had two straight injury reduced years, particularly in 2008 - continues to be injury prone, as that would allow Burriss and/or Frandsen time at SS. However, this only really works if it is a two year deal with an option, because we cannot be saddled with a gimpy shortstop for big bucks for a long time. Particularly not into our prime period of 2010-2015 when we should have our best prospects productive and under our control. Perhaps the option can be tied to playing time in 2009-10, like Vizquel's was. He took a shorter deal with LA for more money so perhaps he might be willing to do that again.
If the Giants are already looking this SS route, if Furcal falls through, perhaps they might go after Adam Everett who plays great defense but might give that back offensively. However, that would be an upgrade on last year because the SS position only hit .228/.295/.281/.576 overall. Everett over the past three seasons had OPS of .642, .599, and .601 (career .653, but much done at Houston's hitter's park. Still, he'll be 32 next year and with declines offensively, could continue to decline. Plus, it appears he was injured twice during the season (and missed a lot of time in 2007 as well), so perhaps he's an injury risk today. - Other names include Pat Burrell and Jimmy Rollins, but most probably not happening.
- Scott Eyre was mentioned, but apparently Eyre loves pitching for the Phillies and his home is close to their spring training complex. It'll probably come to who offers the bigger bucks again, which is how we lost him to Chicago last time.
- Bengie Molina rumors appear to be just that, nothing substantial. I would note here that I saw a headline that Pudge and Veritek will be hot commodities because of a short supply in the catcher's market, so the teams that lose out on them might decide to be more substantial with their offer for Molina in the future.
- Lastly, Andy speculates that Aaron Rowand could be in the mix in trade talks. The market for CF is strong as evidenced by the Brewers picking up Mike Cameron's $10M option, and the Yankees and ChiSox are shopping for CF (Rowand being a former ChiSox, and they pursued him strongly before the Giants got him). According to scouts that Baggarly spoke with, Rowand's defense has fallen so much that Randy Winn was actually better (and most reports I've heard is that he's poor in CF). Still, any trade would have to have a substantial return and the Giants would need to get another righty hitter to balance things out, particularly if Schierholtz is the new RF. Plus, he has limited trade protection.
- Oh, and Baggarly guesses that it's 75-25 that Cain remains a Giant. I would think it would have to be greater than that, because I don't think any team is going to be willing to shell out that much, I would expect to get much more than what the D-backs got for Haren, and only the Rays, I think, would be in a good enough position to trade off that many young good players for a Cain - yet they don't really need a Cain, they have Kazmir, Shields, Garza, and soon Price.
Shea Had Something to Say Too
John Shea had a column on the Giants too:
- Asked if Cain is untouchable, Sabean said, "Yes. Clubs know that. That hasn't necessarily discouraged clubs from inquiring or making suggestions of offers. But we don't see anything out there that gives us a net gain by losing him."
- So to get offensive help, he will try other ways, including free agency and trades for pitchers not named Cain, Lincecum, or Wilson. "We have a list of very definitive untouchables for various reasons. After that, if someone wants to get creative and we could find a way to do something, even if it takes more than one prospect, we're willing to do it."
- Sabean will be attending the Giants' ownership group meeting in SF tonight.
- Sabean has been told to conduct business as usual, despite the tumbling economy, with the priority of adding a couple of hitters - a corner infielder and middle infielder to complement Sandoval and Burriss in the infield and of rebuilding the bullpen around Wilson.
- Sabean noted, "You never know if someone might be interested. Having said that, we know what the competition's going to be. Make no mistake. It's a short list of quote, premium difference-makers. Very short."
- Also reports that Furcal's group "indicated the Giants are interested in the shortstop as a leadoff hitter."
- Basically Burriss will play either 2B or SS and Sandoval wil play either 1B or 3B.
- Sabean has not met many agents but is expected to. He was seen speaking to Craig Landis (former Giants prospect, FYI) who represents Bobby Howry (also a former Giants prospect). Sabean appears confident he can redo his bullpen through free agency.
- He also met with the agent company representing Dunn, Burrell, Hudseon, and CC Sabathia (and here it is affirmed that the Giants are not in the market for front-line starting pitchers).
- Sabean also noted that Frandsen has a shot at winning 2B starting job. He's currently playing SS because Burriss's knee is banged up.
- Also, they are still hopeful that Lowry will be in the Opening Day rotation (imagine how good we would have been in 2008 with a healthy Lowry manning a rotation spot instead of Correia/Misch/etc. That could have been at least a 10 game swing as those pitchers went a combined 3-13 in 29 starts; Lowry going 8-8 instead would but the Giants at 77-85, only 8 games under .500 vs. 18 games under .500).
- In addition, Kevin Pucetas could be in competition for the final rotation spot as well, which is surprising but a good surprise. But still surprising given the word after the season that the team would not rush players as they had in 2008, as Pucetas was only in Advanced A San Jose and, frankly, Tim Alderson outpitched him there. However, Kevin will be 24 next year and Alderson only 20, so with Bumgarner and Alderson probably only a season or two away from being in the majors, perhaps the Giants felt like they should take a good look at Pucetas now.
Giants Thoughts
I mainly looked here at what the Giants might do commented on that and tried not to put as much of my opinion into what I would do as I am posting tomorrowing a discussion of various free agents and my thoughts on whether we should pursue them or not. Here, I am mainly an observer who gives opinion on what may or may not be happening.
I guess the main news is that Burriss and Sandoval pretty much owns two spots in the infield but which two depends on who the Giants acquired during the off-season. And the threshold is high, the Giants are only looking at "premium difference makers". Plus, as noted before, the Giants are looking to boost the bullpen. And it appears that the Giants are not pursuing any outfielders, leaving a number of premium difference makers like Manny not part of the mix in the Giants plans.
Looks like they will pursue Furcal, though how seriously, I don't know, as they shied away from Vlad Guerrero reportedly because of his bad back (though according to a well-respected Bay Area media member, Ted Robinson, a significant factor was because Vlad didn't like Felipe Alou). He'll be OK with a short contract but not a long one.
And apparently they are eyeing Juan Uribe as a possible replacement for Rich Aurilia, depending on how cheaply they can get him from the ChiSox (which I would put in the category of dumpster-diving; not that there's anything wrong with that). I am OK with that if he's cheap enough. It'll be fun for the crowd to yell "Ooo-Ree-Bay" again.
Pat Burrell, on the other hand, is pretty much dismissed in the above articles, but he used to play 1B like Dunn as well. However, I doubt that his hometime discount will amount to enough for the Giants to sign him and his defense stinks, and Sabean loves good defensive players.
Still, you never know what a player might do, because if the Giants are interested in Furcal, they are obviously entertaining thoughts of shelling out another $12-13+ M contract and maybe Burrell doesn't need the biggest contract and accepts one that is good enough, like Carlos Lee did with Houston. Burrell is a South Bay native and I believe was a Giants fan growing up. In addition, because his defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Giants might not want to have two subpar defensive player in Burrell and Sandoval at the corner infield spots. We will see.
I don't think that the Giants will want to pursue Dunn. I think there is enough interest on the part of other teams to put his price out of range of the Giants. And he's not going to give any hometown discount to the Giants.
Same thinking on Mark Teixiera. As much as he fits the Giants ideal 1B - hitter plus great defensively - he is with Boras and he will want one of the largest contracts in history. I don't think the Giants want to go in that direction.
I am hoping the Giants are limiting contracts to the 2 years plus 3rd year option or at most a 3 years plus 4th year option variety so that the contracts are ending right around when we need to sign Cain and Lincecum to long term deals. That would make it easier to trade them too.
I'm a bit afraid that the media is mentioning Bumgarner and Alderson in the trade talks and hope that is because Sabean did not explicitly name them and thus the writers are just taking an analytical leap there. Sabean, as I noted, like to maintain a list put together by our coaches and scouts on, basically, who our keepers are and who we are willing to give up. I assume both are on the keeper list.
Looks like the #5 spot will be competed for by Lowry, Pucetas, and probably Misch as well, and possibly Correia should he be re-signed (I'm betting that he's going to another team like the Padres instead, though).
The outfield appear to be set with Lewis, Rowand, and Winn, with the outside possibility that the Giants will float Rowand's name to see what offers he gets. As I noted before, I hope they keep him, I think he'll be better in 2009 and the team will be sorry to get rid of him if they do.
Given the hot market for catchers in free agency, I think some teams might decide that it would be better to have Bengie Molina than overpay for the two stars on the market, Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Veritek, or, alternatively, he will look better when the two sign with other teams and the remaining bidders are left with no catcher. However, I think it would take a pretty good offer to get the Giants to trade Molina, so I think he'll be with the team to start the season but could be gone by mid-season when the inevitable injury hits a contending team's catching and they need a catcher and thus might overbid for him. Plus the Giants by that point should be back far enough that they could give up without shame and start building for the future again at mid-season.
Lastly, Cain's not going anywhere because it is going to take a huge overbid to get him away from the Giants and that's been true for at least 3 years now, and if a team hasn't been willing to do that before, they are probably not willing to do it today, as he's pitching much as he has, at least at the surface.
However, as I noted in another post, Cain greatly improved in 2008 because he actually pitched well on the road, whereas previously he only pitched well in SF and poorly on the road. He should be ready to take off in terms of production as a starting pitcher in 2009, I would bet.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
The Giants Win the Game! The Giants Win the Game!
Hey, you got to celebrate the good times, you don't know when they will come again. :^) And hey, our clean-up hitter leads the team in HR, and is now among the leaders in HR this season in the NL. Better check his syringe, er, bat!
I am posting because I heard part of the interview with Rob Neyer, of ESPN, on KNBR today. He said that as of the beginning of the season, he thought the Giants were capable of a 70-74 win season. So he doesn't understand all the talk about the Giants losing 100 games. He said even the Marlins, Nationals, and Pirates didn't lose 100 games in recent years (and he thinks the Giants have a better team). He said that is because the NL is relatively balanced, so it is pretty hard for a team, no matter how bad, to lose 100 games.
I'm Fine, How are You?
Those are good points, but in any case, I think I'm in a good position right now, a win/win/win in terms of happiness for this season. If the Giants do lose 90 to 100 games as many have forecasted, we'll get a really good draft pick in 2009, another top 5 pick, so I'm happy, that should be another good hitter to go with the guy we get in this year's draft. If we win 72 to 80 games, that's basically what I thought they were capable of, high end and low end, I'm happy, that's what I thought they would do. If they, miracle of miracles, win 81 or more games, then I'm happy because I was very wrong, they were able to do it somehow, and you know that it would involve a lot of great pitching, both starters and relievers, plus some standout hitting on the part of somebody young and developing.
I plan on enjoying myself this season, there should be a lot of good pitching to go around and I think one or two young hitters will do nice enough work that we can grin about it after the season. I will leave the moaning about the team to other, more talented moaners.
Did I Mention That the Giants Won the Game?
But Lincecum sure looked good last night, eh? Nothing wrong with his arm, that was a 4 PQS game, a dominating start. His only blemish was giving up 7 hits, but that was flukey given that he went 6 IP and struck out 7. That results in a BABIP around .400, and pitchers should be around .300 if they are regular. And we all know that Lincecum is above average so his BABIP should be lower, theoretically speaking.
Too bad Brian Wilson blew the save. But I think he'll be OK once he calms down a bit, I think the young guys are all amped because it's the start of the season, more so for Wilson because he didn't get a chance at a save until this game, an appearance until the game before. And as a I noted in a previous post, a scout was quoted in the San Jose Mercury by Andy Baggerly as saying that Wilson had one of the four great arms in the Giants system.
FYI, I guess the Giants passed on Jerome Williams. He came begging, hat in hand, after losing 30 pounds over the off-season, to drop from 260 to 230, for a job anywhere with any team. But no one bit, so he ended up signing with an independent league team in California. I'm surprised the Giants did not bite, but then again, they passed on Kurt Ainsworth and Damian Moss too (but we got Foppert and Walker back!).
I am posting because I heard part of the interview with Rob Neyer, of ESPN, on KNBR today. He said that as of the beginning of the season, he thought the Giants were capable of a 70-74 win season. So he doesn't understand all the talk about the Giants losing 100 games. He said even the Marlins, Nationals, and Pirates didn't lose 100 games in recent years (and he thinks the Giants have a better team). He said that is because the NL is relatively balanced, so it is pretty hard for a team, no matter how bad, to lose 100 games.
I'm Fine, How are You?
Those are good points, but in any case, I think I'm in a good position right now, a win/win/win in terms of happiness for this season. If the Giants do lose 90 to 100 games as many have forecasted, we'll get a really good draft pick in 2009, another top 5 pick, so I'm happy, that should be another good hitter to go with the guy we get in this year's draft. If we win 72 to 80 games, that's basically what I thought they were capable of, high end and low end, I'm happy, that's what I thought they would do. If they, miracle of miracles, win 81 or more games, then I'm happy because I was very wrong, they were able to do it somehow, and you know that it would involve a lot of great pitching, both starters and relievers, plus some standout hitting on the part of somebody young and developing.
I plan on enjoying myself this season, there should be a lot of good pitching to go around and I think one or two young hitters will do nice enough work that we can grin about it after the season. I will leave the moaning about the team to other, more talented moaners.
Did I Mention That the Giants Won the Game?
But Lincecum sure looked good last night, eh? Nothing wrong with his arm, that was a 4 PQS game, a dominating start. His only blemish was giving up 7 hits, but that was flukey given that he went 6 IP and struck out 7. That results in a BABIP around .400, and pitchers should be around .300 if they are regular. And we all know that Lincecum is above average so his BABIP should be lower, theoretically speaking.
Too bad Brian Wilson blew the save. But I think he'll be OK once he calms down a bit, I think the young guys are all amped because it's the start of the season, more so for Wilson because he didn't get a chance at a save until this game, an appearance until the game before. And as a I noted in a previous post, a scout was quoted in the San Jose Mercury by Andy Baggerly as saying that Wilson had one of the four great arms in the Giants system.
FYI, I guess the Giants passed on Jerome Williams. He came begging, hat in hand, after losing 30 pounds over the off-season, to drop from 260 to 230, for a job anywhere with any team. But no one bit, so he ended up signing with an independent league team in California. I'm surprised the Giants did not bite, but then again, they passed on Kurt Ainsworth and Damian Moss too (but we got Foppert and Walker back!).
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Giants of the Future: Augusta
Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury had a really nice article on Villalona and the nice team the Giants are assembling at the Level A team, the Augusta Greenjackets of the Sally League (South Atlantic League). But read it fast, it will be gone in about 4 days from now.
For those who get the newspaper, there is a great picture of Villalona in there. It makes it very clear why the Giants are moving him to first base, he is Ginormous! The other pictures I've seen of him must have been taken from a very good angle, because he just looked big, but this picture really makes it clear that the Giants have to move him to 1B. After all, he's only 17 and still growing!!! Felipe Alou claims that it is just baby fat, and that he will grow out of it. I will just have to accept his word on that.
In any case, too bad he's probably moving to 1B because we have no one who is ready to take on 3B plus the best position prospects available to us at the #5 pick of the amateur draft this season are firstbasemen. Not that he wouldn't be valuable there too, just it would make our future lineup more clearer. Now we have a question mark at 3B for the future.
But what a nice looking future it is shaping out to be, here on the field in Augusta this spring and summer. Angel Villalona at 1B. Nick Noonan at 2B. Charlier Culberson at SS. Wendell Fairley in CF. Madison Bumgarner at SP, plus maybe Tim Alderson. There is some good info on them, but mostly about Noonan and Villalona:
For those who get the newspaper, there is a great picture of Villalona in there. It makes it very clear why the Giants are moving him to first base, he is Ginormous! The other pictures I've seen of him must have been taken from a very good angle, because he just looked big, but this picture really makes it clear that the Giants have to move him to 1B. After all, he's only 17 and still growing!!! Felipe Alou claims that it is just baby fat, and that he will grow out of it. I will just have to accept his word on that.
In any case, too bad he's probably moving to 1B because we have no one who is ready to take on 3B plus the best position prospects available to us at the #5 pick of the amateur draft this season are firstbasemen. Not that he wouldn't be valuable there too, just it would make our future lineup more clearer. Now we have a question mark at 3B for the future.
But what a nice looking future it is shaping out to be, here on the field in Augusta this spring and summer. Angel Villalona at 1B. Nick Noonan at 2B. Charlier Culberson at SS. Wendell Fairley in CF. Madison Bumgarner at SP, plus maybe Tim Alderson. There is some good info on them, but mostly about Noonan and Villalona:
- Noonan: He has the best strike-zone judgment of any Giants position prospect, according to some coaches. The Giants feel that Noonan's baseball acumen is so off the charts that they even put him on the travel roster for a Cactus League game last week. (Note: they might do the same with Villalona later this spring.)
- Villalona: Lots of quotes by and about him, so I thought it would be easier to just quote them from Baggarly's good article.
Though he signed as a third baseman, Villalona - who is 6-foot-3 and appears
well beyond his listed weight of 200 pounds - is working at first base and is
expected to play there at Augusta.
"I think I am better at first base," Villalona said with the help of an interpreter. "I feel more comfortable at first base, and they put me there for a reason."
There are some concerns about Villalona's expanding waistline, though Alou calls it "baby fat" and said it's typical for young players to replace it with muscle when they hit their late teens.
For now, Villalona is getting past the initial culture shock and beginning to settle in. He was soft-spoken but comfortable when speaking with a reporter, as Merengue music drifted from the iPhone in his locker.
"I'm learning many things," he said. "I want to get my hands dirty and see what I can do."
While some call him "Baby V" or "Big V," his teammates just call him
Villa.
"Villa is just a big kid," Culberson said. "He'll be in the outfield doing cartwheels and the next minute he's hitting bombs."
Said Alou: "When he first got here, the other players were more advanced, in baseball and in life. He wanted to compete with them, and it was difficult. But I tell you, he is competing with them now. A year later, he is competing." - Alderson: The reason he might be at Augusta is because he is so advanced that he might get placed with San Jose instead, like how Lincecum started out there (I'm not trying to compare their potential, though, because clearly The Kid was much more advanced, he was a 3rd year college hurler; I'm only noting the similarity of both starting up so high after signing)
- Culberson: During instructional league, he showed that he was pretty advanced with his glove.
- Fairly: Might be the best athlete in the Giants farm system.
Other News
The fallout from Lowry's surgery and being out the month of April continues. Sanchez hasn't been doing well and thus is not holding the last spot in the rotation. The Giants know that Hennessey wants to start and will give him a start today, though there is no plans to stretch him out beyond 2 innings. I have to assume that Misch is in the mix as well. Any rumor about them adding a vet pitcher - I saw one rumor mill mention Kyle Lohse - I have to assume is media-driven speculation, the Giants have been pretty good this winter about going with youth where they can.
In addition, Bochy now says that he will probably have to keep 12 pitchers as a result of the injury. This means an extra guy in the bullpen and they are doing this because the uncertainty in the back of the rotation could result in the need for more relief appearances due to the #5 starter getting pulled early.
I think the team was also influenced by how well both Merkin Valdez and Erick Threets have been throwing, plus the desire to keep Jose Capellan. With a 11 man pitching staff, the Giants would have to lose at least one of them (all of them would be lost if not kept on the 25-man roster). They would also have to lose another if they keep Steve Kline. Valdez, if he continues to pitch well, could slide into a set-up spot and allow the Giants to move Hennessey to starter or long-relief.
Unfortunately, there is also news about Lincecum having a groin injury, so the Giants have shut him down. His slim frame and long stride could cause other physical problems if he should compensate for the groin injury while throwing. I think this was a good precaution.
The good news continue on Wilson and Walker. Both have been doing well, and Wilson was "sharp in his first save situation of the spring." He earned his first save of the spring striking out two and getting a groundout, exactly what you want to see from him as he relies greatly on his cutter that he learned from watching Mariano Riviera demonstrate one on TV.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Wilson "warming" to Role of Closer
That's the title the Merc headline writer used for Baggarly's article, but the writer either didn't read the article or didn't understand it. Clearly, from what Andy wrote in the article, Brian Wilson has the mental attitude for the closer role. He wants to go with his best pitch and challenge the batter. He doesn't want to just fool the hitter. Mano-a-mano with his best heat.
The big bit of info in the article was that Bochy awarded the closer role to Wilson before one pitch was thrown this spring. He noted, "We're not going to go back and forth on this. We want Brian to be relaxed."
There was also interesting info on Wilson's pitches. His repertoire includes a slider but his best stuff is a four-seam fastball (99 MPH) and a cut fastball that he started throwing in 2006. "It can drop, go sideways, tilt up... It's devastating on the inside corner to a righty because it's coming right at them, then at the last second it hovers back in the strike zone. Or it looks like a fat fastball down the middle, then it moves off the plate and breaks a bat. It's just an awesome weapon."
He learned how to throw the cutter through TV and the right circumstances. He remembered the grip for the cutter from watching a Yankee's game on TV where someone demonstrated how Mariano Rivera throws it. Later, in 2006, he grilled Mike Stanton about it after the Giants acquired Stanton since Stanton was teammates with Rivera. He likes it so much that he wants to throw the cutter all the time, just like Rivera.
Giants Thoughts
I'm glad the Giants just named him the closer and moved on. There is really no one else who could seriously compete, as nicely as Hennessey did in 2007 and Walker previously. So take some of the pressure off him and let him prepare and get ready for the season.
In addition, if he can pitch well, that will go a long way towards improving the bullpen in 2008 versus 2007. And I think he can pitch very well in 2008. He, Walker and Hennessey are the core of the bullpen and if they do well it will go a long way towards the pitching staff reducing their overall ERA from what it was in 2007.
The big bit of info in the article was that Bochy awarded the closer role to Wilson before one pitch was thrown this spring. He noted, "We're not going to go back and forth on this. We want Brian to be relaxed."
There was also interesting info on Wilson's pitches. His repertoire includes a slider but his best stuff is a four-seam fastball (99 MPH) and a cut fastball that he started throwing in 2006. "It can drop, go sideways, tilt up... It's devastating on the inside corner to a righty because it's coming right at them, then at the last second it hovers back in the strike zone. Or it looks like a fat fastball down the middle, then it moves off the plate and breaks a bat. It's just an awesome weapon."
He learned how to throw the cutter through TV and the right circumstances. He remembered the grip for the cutter from watching a Yankee's game on TV where someone demonstrated how Mariano Rivera throws it. Later, in 2006, he grilled Mike Stanton about it after the Giants acquired Stanton since Stanton was teammates with Rivera. He likes it so much that he wants to throw the cutter all the time, just like Rivera.
Giants Thoughts
I'm glad the Giants just named him the closer and moved on. There is really no one else who could seriously compete, as nicely as Hennessey did in 2007 and Walker previously. So take some of the pressure off him and let him prepare and get ready for the season.
In addition, if he can pitch well, that will go a long way towards improving the bullpen in 2008 versus 2007. And I think he can pitch very well in 2008. He, Walker and Hennessey are the core of the bullpen and if they do well it will go a long way towards the pitching staff reducing their overall ERA from what it was in 2007.
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Wouldn't It Be Nice if Brian Wilson Was Our Closer?
Just had to post that. Brian Wilson earned his first save of the 2007 season, second of his MLB career, yesterday. His pitching this year is probably close to what we are going to see during his career, not that many hits given up, but a lot of walks and strikeouts, and probably a lot of saves too. I think he's going to be good, but he's still got to work on his control so that he doesn't walk that many. But given the paucity of closer candidates in our farm system, I think we should just let him take over and see how it goes.
Hennessey Has Been Good
However, that's not fair to Hennessey, who jumped in and has done a credible job as the closer since Benitez was traded. While Hennessey's K-rate is nothing to write home about, he has had excellent control, leading to a good K/BB ratio while in the closer role (heck, it was good even before). Since taking over, he has 11 saves in 29 games, 30.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 29 H, 10 R/ER, 9 BB, 19 SO, 2 HR, .259/.325/.402/.727 batting line against. That's pretty good, though ideally he would have more K's and a better K/SO, but at least that's over 2 (2.11 but ideally over 2.4).
The Future is Now: Wilson is the Future
I guess he deserves to finish the year out as closer, but I would rather look to the future at this point. We all knew going into the season that Wilson was going to be THE closer at some point, so shift Hennessey back to his set-up position, where he did great at, and let Wilson close. The future is now, let's see what Wilson can do with the job.
Hennessey Has Been Good
However, that's not fair to Hennessey, who jumped in and has done a credible job as the closer since Benitez was traded. While Hennessey's K-rate is nothing to write home about, he has had excellent control, leading to a good K/BB ratio while in the closer role (heck, it was good even before). Since taking over, he has 11 saves in 29 games, 30.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 29 H, 10 R/ER, 9 BB, 19 SO, 2 HR, .259/.325/.402/.727 batting line against. That's pretty good, though ideally he would have more K's and a better K/SO, but at least that's over 2 (2.11 but ideally over 2.4).
The Future is Now: Wilson is the Future
I guess he deserves to finish the year out as closer, but I would rather look to the future at this point. We all knew going into the season that Wilson was going to be THE closer at some point, so shift Hennessey back to his set-up position, where he did great at, and let Wilson close. The future is now, let's see what Wilson can do with the job.
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Wilson up; Sanchez down
Not a huge surprise for a number of reasons. One, Jonathan Sanchez has stunk for a while in relief. Two, Brian Wilson has been great in relief in AAA, particularly lately. Three, the Giants have a large number of games to play, on consecutive days, and will require a lot of pitchers, hence the merry-go-round we have been having lately with pitchers going up and down.
Four, the bullpen has been particularly putrid for a while now, all the relievers have been severely ineffective for most part for a while now. Five, we all know Hennessey is not the long-term solution at closer and our season has been pretty much done for a long while now, so we may as well bring up our putative closer of the future and install him in that position sooner than later; it sounds like he will get to pitch in a set-up role initially, plus occassionally get the 9th depending on the situation (Hennessey pitching too much or too ineffectively, more the latter lately since the Giants haven't been holding many leads).
Lastly, the Chronicle's version of the decision noted that Sanchez might start at some point, but the sfgiants.com version noted specifically that Sanchez is going down to get more work pitching as a reliever and work on relaxing when he is on the mound, they feel that this is leading him to be inconsistent in his performances. Sounds like they will work him more innings and more often to get him to work on getting more consistent and becoming more relaxed out on the mound. Pitching more will hopefully give him that comfort level to relax and be comfortable with the situation.
Four, the bullpen has been particularly putrid for a while now, all the relievers have been severely ineffective for most part for a while now. Five, we all know Hennessey is not the long-term solution at closer and our season has been pretty much done for a long while now, so we may as well bring up our putative closer of the future and install him in that position sooner than later; it sounds like he will get to pitch in a set-up role initially, plus occassionally get the 9th depending on the situation (Hennessey pitching too much or too ineffectively, more the latter lately since the Giants haven't been holding many leads).
Lastly, the Chronicle's version of the decision noted that Sanchez might start at some point, but the sfgiants.com version noted specifically that Sanchez is going down to get more work pitching as a reliever and work on relaxing when he is on the mound, they feel that this is leading him to be inconsistent in his performances. Sounds like they will work him more innings and more often to get him to work on getting more consistent and becoming more relaxed out on the mound. Pitching more will hopefully give him that comfort level to relax and be comfortable with the situation.
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