Uribe Signing with D-gers: 3 years, $21M pending physical

The bad news is that the D-gers signed Juan Uribe to a reported/tweeted 3 year, $21M contract (see details at ExtraBaggs).  It is pending him passing the physical, so unless there is some bad news there, he should be bleeding D-ger blue next season.  I can't wish well to anyone who is a D-ger, though Juan is certainly a strong test case.  I don't blame him for going though, that's a lot of money and who knows whether he'll get another chance at such a contract.  He "only" made $4.25M with the Giants the past two seasons. That's 21 million different ways of happy. 

Still, this is probably up there with Johnny Damon going from the Red Sox to the Yankees, though worse because of the long history of the Uribe name in Giants history (Jose Uribe will always be THE Uribe for the Giants, unlike what AJ Pierzitski thought, that SF stole that from Chicago, what a historian he is; ironically, Jose is truly the player to be named later, as his name was Jose Gonzalez when we got him in trade for Jack Clark, the only player to have any eventual significance for us from the trade, but he decided to go with his mother's maiden name because there were so many Jose Gonzalezs already in pro baseball.  So it is only befitting because Jose Uribe is so unique, a one of a kind guy).

Giants Thoughts

The good news it that the Giants did not match the offer.  That's just too much for him for what the Giants need.  Juan's OK as a shortstop, but 2 years at $6M per at best, as reward for the 2010 season.  The extra year is just too rich for my blood and then you top it off by going to $7M.  No thank you, but thanks for a great 2010 season.  And I think D-ger fans will start "Boo"-ribaying him at some point because right-handed hitters do poorer HR-wise in D-ger Stadium, it is just harder for them to hit homers there (while easier for lefties). 

I think the Giants offense will be fine without Uribe in 2010.  The "Someone new everyday" offense will continue to function fine, in fact, it should even be better because 1) Bumgarner pitches full season (meaning even less offense needed to win), 2) Posey plays full season, 3) Ross here all season (meaning less Rowand), 4) Torres starts full season (meaning less Rowand), 5) Sandoval should return to Panda-mojo status, and 6) we already signed Huff back.  Torres, Franchez, Huff, Posey, Ross, Sandoval, plus OF and SS is a pretty good top of lineup, better if Burrell comes back as starting LF and hit as well, outstanding if Sandoval can reach 2010 levels of production.

And the pitching, which was basically MLB best (I think we ended up 2nd by barest of margins), should duplicate its 2010 season (or better).  Cain and Sanchez had great seasons, but any downside for them are balanced by Lincecum looking so dominant with his new slider and having Bumgarner instead of Wellemeyer for half a season;  Zito has pitched about the same the past two seasons, probably do about as well again. 

Plus, the bullpen should be even better, the Giants spent the first half of the season trying to find relievers who could deliver and only Casilla delivered outside of regulars Wilson and Romo, plus Affeldt was struggling.  Then Moto did OK, then Ray, and lastly Lopez and Ramirez were acquired, before Affeldt finally returned to 2009 goodness, and now the bullpen looks stellar with Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, and presumably Ray (former closer getting over surgery; could finally be healthy in 2011) and Ramirez (some speculate that one or the other might be non-tendered but I don't see that happening).

For SS, I've seen many names mentioned as possibilities, either signing or trading for, most noted in Baggerly:  Derek Jeter, Orlando Hudson, Miguel Tejada, Cesar Izturiz, JJ Hardy, Jason Barlett, others I've seen include Marco Scutaro and Jose Reyes.  Not that I think Crawford will ever be that great a shortstop, but I would rather not get anyone with big money attached, particularly in trade, because that would probably require the Giants giving up some talent, particularly pitching talent. 

The Giants are nicely loaded in pitching but it takes only one or two injuries or poor performances, particularly after pitching more innings than ever before in 2010 by going deep into the playoffs, to make the Giants scramble to replace pieces.  A trade of significant prospects would steal our depth, which is shallow right now (only Runzler is a possible backup starter for 2011 season right now) and would only get worse.  If we can get away with lesser prospects, though, I would be OK with that.

Therefore, I would prefer to sign a free agent SS (and some might be non-tendered, like Hardy and Barlett, and become free agents) on the low side, who can play good defense (like Barlett or Izturiz).  Hardy would be OK since he's like Uribe providing power from SS.  Luckily, in the lineup I described above, we don't need to get offense from the SS position as he would probably bat 8th and for most 8th place hitters, any offense is a plus, just not expected. 

And that is particularly so if Sandoval delivers as I expect him to, meaning a return to 2009 levels, and force his way up to the middle of the lineup (probably 5th), or if Belt delivers as I expect him to eventually, meaning something along the lines of Sandoval's 2008 or, dare we dream, 2009, which I think he's capable of, and which would push him also into consideration for middle of lineup duties.  Our lineup can be monster if Sandoval and Belt hits as I expect along with Huff and Posey in the middle, plus Torres up top.

Side Note:  Posey Awarded Again

Also today, Buster Posey was named to the 52nd Annual Topps Major League Rookie All-Star Team, after being named NL Rookie of the Year two weeks ago (which I forgot to note with a post).  He beat out Atlanta's Jason Heyward easily for the ROY award, gaining 20 first place votes to only 9 for Heyward, despite "only" playing for about 4 months of the season.  Buster was "humbled" by the recognition, befitting his modest and humble manner.  Makes you want to just give him a big hug and say "you big lug!"

He was on every ballot (each voters only gets to vote 1-2-3) except for one, who left him off because he did not play the full season (the guy actually voted for Gaby Sanchez for 1st; he even shafted Jason Heyward too).  Even if he weren't a Giants rookie, I don't see how one could do that, that's like saying quantity matters more than quality.  Luckily, that was just his personal code of conduct, the rules are actually quite vague about what to consider when awarding ROY.

Posey joins a list of Giants greats and very goods:  Willie Mays (1951), Orlando Cepeda (1958), Willie McCovey (1959), Juan Marichial (1962), John "the Count" Montefusco (1975), and Gary Mathews (1976).  He also became the first catcher to win a ROY award and a World Series championship in the same season. 

I loved this column by Gary Peterson of the Mercury (his column has been a welcome addition in the past year, I like his writing and this thoughts), here is an excerpt: 

Now, with the advantage of hindsight voters didn't have, it seems a no-brainer. Start with this: Posey became just the fifth National League Rookie of the Year to help his team win the World Series. And by help we mean:

Leading the Giants in hits in the first-round win over Atlanta; tying for second on the team with three RBIs in the NLCS dethroning of Philadelphia; batting .300 with a homer in the World Series; blocking balls in the dirt; throwing out would-be base stealers; acting as a reassuring, mature-beyond-his-years presence for Giants pitchers.

Unprecedented contributions from a rookie? You could make that argument. Fernando Valenzuela won three postseason games (one in the World Series) for the Dodgers in 1981. Dustin Pedroia, Derek Jeter and Chuck Knoblauch were in the thick of championship postseasons for the Red Sox, Yankees and Twins in 2007, 1996 and 1991.

But none of the above consistently batted third or cleanup. None was so intimately involved with every pitch of every game. Posey played every inning of the postseason. If you don't believe us, ask backup catcher Eli Whiteside. The only time he made it off the bench was for the end-of-series pig pile at the pitcher's mound.

There's a reason there are only nine catchers among the 128 players who have been honored as Rookie of the Year since 1947. Catching is tough stuff. To ask a young player to catch at an elite level for a championship team is just begging for trouble.

It got the Giants a shiny gold trophy.

I couldn't agree more.  Congrats to Buster Posey for his awards, clearly there will be many more in future seasons.  Amazing what leadership he's already providing, he said this at the SF Giants 2010 World Series Championship Celebration Parade and he repeated it when he spoke on winning the ROY:  “Let’s try to do it again next year.”  We Giants fans are truly blessed to have him on our team, leading our team. 

Brandon Belt Discussion by Keith Law and Jason Gray

There was a nice video discussion about Brandon Belt by ESPN's Keith Law and Jason Gray (I follow @KeithLaw's twitter account and learned of this by this re-tweet) on ESPN today.  It is really good so check it out (also discusses Bryce Harper and Eric Hosmer too, if you are prospect hound and looking for fantasy advice for 2011), but I am providing a rough transcript as I want to make some points regarding Belt and the Giants:

... Other great offensive prospects are in the AFL besides Harper.  One of the most impressive is Brandon Belt.

(Gray) Some say he came out of nowhere, and he sort of did, as he's relatively new to hitting, being drafted twice as a pitcher.  Kudos to SF staff for his development.

They changed his stance, hand position, in order to get the most out of his raw talent.

There are openings in SF in 1B and LF, he could make impact in 2011.

I (Law) love the way they changed his stance, he's more upright now, picked his hands up, more leverage in swing, can get bat to any spot in zone, good plate discipline, pretty good defensive 1B

Giants Thoughts

I wanted to point this out for a few reasons.  First, obviously, always good to hear good things about our prospects.  Belt is arguably the Giants #1 prospect now, depending on how you view Wheeler's potential.  He's definitely the closest to making the team as a starter.  Nice to have him recognized by experts such as Keith Law.  And they called him a great offensive prospect.

Second, I like the detail they gave in what he is doing right as a hitter.  Don't always get to hear such information when prospects are described, period, and they gave a lot of detail that we normally don't get to hear about our prospects.

Third, wanted to point out that while technically it is true that the Giants have openings at 1B and LF for 2011, I seriously doubt that will happen.  Huff loves the team too much to leave it over money and the Giants do not skimp in signing players they are interested in keeping, which Sabean alluded to previously, when a reporter asked or suggested that Huff might be traded to get prospects since he'll be a free agent.  He got $8M each for 2 seasons when younger, he'll probably get something like DeRosa's 2 year, $12M ($6M per season) deal, maybe with team option year added. 

Burrell already said that he'll accept a bench role in 2011, and that suggests that he'll sign for minimum money ($1-3M);  he grew up Giants fan and clearly wants to stay on the team at all costs.  Burrell staying would be another reason why Huff will re-sign.  Together, 1B and LF are covered, plus Cody Ross, according to Sabean-speak, probably will be retained as well, giving us Torres, Ross, Burrell, Rowand, and Schierholtz in the OF already for 2011.  No space for Belt in 2011, unless injury, sudden (and complete) change in heart, poor performance, or Belt just Babe Ruth's his way to MLB lineup (Huff can play 3B, LF, and RF too).

Misconception that Giants Don't Develop Position Players

Lastly, the Giants have been painted as a poor organization for developing position prospects because, well, they haven't really developed a position prospect for a long time (or at least a good one) until Pablo Sandoval came along, and I think that this discussion highlights that perhaps it is more a matter of not devoting their high draft picks to hitters, than of lack of ability to develop hitters.

Look at all the things Law and Gray describes that that Giants did with Belt.  That does not happen randomly, it is a recognition of how to hit and adjusting the hitter to improve what he could do, within the constraints of his talents.  There are so many adjustments noted that the Giants did to Belt, you can't do all that and hope to randomly succeed, you do all that because you have a methodology of how a major league hitter succeeds and mold the player to it.

And that is where most people complaining about the Giants ability to draft position players are missing something, something I've been trying to explain for the past 6-7 years about the draft:  there is not a lot of obvious talent in the draft, except when you draft in the top 5 or so.  And odds are not great there either, around 40-45% chance of finding a good player there, based on my study, not even flipping a coin odds.

And the Giants for the most part have used their first round pick on pitchers - with odds of around 10% for Cain's pick, around 20-25% for Bumgarner and Lincecum's pick range.  And the odds get exponentially worse for the second round and on down the draft.  They simply have not devoted many higher draft picks to position players until recent drafts, and still drafted pitchers early in Bumgarner and Wheeler. 

So the real reason most position prospects don't work in the Giants farm system is because they are lacking a lot of qualities that make up a good hitter due to the fact that they are drafted many rounds later, and not because they are incapable of developing hitters.  If you are fishing in an empty barrel, the reason you don't catch fish isn't necessarily because you are a bad fisherman.

And though one could say that the Giants lucked into Belt since he was a 5th rounder, but again to the points that Law and Gray made, an organization that is incompetant in developing a hitter would not have been able to make all those adjustments with Belt and get him hitting the way he is, one of the best offensive prospects in baseball.  I would credit the Giants for identifying that Belt, in his unformed state as a hitter, since he was just recently converted from pitcher (funny since the Giants are semi-famous for converting position players into pitchers), had the raw talent to become a better hitter given additional instruction.

Given the Giants move to drafting more position players earlier in the draft - Fairley, Noonan, Culberson, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, Crawford, Joseph, Dominguez, Belt, Brown, Parker, Jurica - the Giants will probably be seeing more "success" in developing position players going forward, when, really, it is more an emphasis of their rare resources (early draft picks) on position players in recent seasons rather than the historic emphasis on pitching that they have basically hewed to since Tidrow took control of player personnel and development.  And this new emphasis was marked by when John Barr took over scouting for the Giants.

World Series News

Bochy earlier announced the rotation (Home/Road) will be Lincecum H, Cain H, Sanchez R, Bumgarner R, Lincecum R, Cain H, Sanchez H. Probably best this way, get Lincecum and Cain pitch critical games 5 & 6.  Also puts Lincecum mano-a-mano with Lee, giving us best chance to win game 1.  Interesting stat I saw tweeted by Ranger's fan is that in Wild Card era, almost every team that won game 1 ended up winning the World Series. 

In addition, Andres Torres sound like he's healthy and ready to play game 1.  If he can hit like he was at the end of the NLCS, that would be a huge boost to our chances of scoring first and winning the World Series. 

Your 2010 Giants are 86-67: Dashing D-Rox Hopes

The Giants pitching staff continued their historic run of 17 straight starts keeping the other team from scoring over 3 runs (previous high of 16 games was by 1981 Oakland A's and 1972 Cleveland Indians since the live ball era began in 1920 and the longest since the 1917 Chicago White Sox had a 20 game streak, during the dead ball era).  The Giants with any modicum of consistent scoring could have been on a 17 game win streak, but still, they are 11-6 during the streak and have taken first place again from the 'Dres and has the same record as the Braves, which currently leads the wild-card race.  We knew going into September that we will win by pitching and sometimes lose because our hitters didn't do enough, this is not something new.

Meanwhile, the 'Dres have been keeping about even with us, only a half game back.  They are 4-4 since the Giants took them 3-1 on the road in their homepark.   Now the D-Rox hope to do something similar to the Giants as SF goes into Colorado for three.

But D-Rox has gone 4-6 in their last 10 games, as Tulowitski's historic 14 homers in 15 games (only had happened three times in history) stretch fades in their memory and performance, and they have fallen back to 3.5 games behind the Giants by losing 4 in a row and getting swept by the D-backs.  With 9 games left, they can be eliminated by the Giants if SF wins plus COL losses equal 6 - meaning if the Giants can finish 6-3, they eliminate D-Rox, so in all likelihood, they are playing out the string.

But the 'Dres pretty much had the NL West until they faded and the Giants surged to finally catch them by winning that series in SD, and now the D-Rox is hoping to revive their playoff hopes by sweeping the Giants.  And that is realistically what they have to do.  Winning 2-1 only gets them to 2.5 games back:  that won't do it for them, as that would take 2 games off the 6 D-Rox got to be eliminated.  And they are pretty much gone if the Giants win the series 2-1, leaving only 2 games to elimination for D-Rox.

They really need to sweep the Giants to have any realistic chance of making the playoffs.  But they will have to beat the Giants'best:  Lincecum, Zito, and Cain.  And, ironically, some uninformed people might point out that Lincecum has the 4th best ERA on the team and say otherwise.  Also, let's see if the humidor ball rumor (they give those balls to visiting teams to hit against, live balls for their team to hit against) is true or not this series.

Game 1:  Jhoulis Chacin vs. Lincecum

MLB Notes:

Giants:  With the offense struggling, Lincecum was pinch-hit for in the fifth inning of his last start against the Brewers. He also took his first lost of September, as a bloop single drove in two runs. He is 1-2 with a 3.66 ERA against Colorado this season.

D-Rox:  Chacin didn't issue a walk in a start for the first time in his career Saturday in an eight-inning shutout effort against Los Angeles. He could become the first Rockies rookie to finish with an ERA below 4 and at least 120 innings pitched.

Going to be a tough game, both pitchers are at the top of their game.  Chacin is 2-0, 1.93 ERA against the Giants in his career, but 4.50 ERA in one start at home against the Giants, as he has had a good rookie season.  Lincecum has been ordinary in Colorado, 4.39 ERA in 7 career starts there, but that is probably pretty good in this offensive oriented park.  I would have to lean towards The Kid for this one, but Chacin is pretty good too.  Bring it on!

Game 2:  Jason Hammel/TBA vs. Zito

MLB Notes:

Giants:  As a fly-ball pitcher who lacks a steamy fastball, Zito would figure to struggle at Coors Field. Yet he's a respectable 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA and a .227 opponents' batting average in six Coors starts.

D-Rox:  None

Hammel has been battling a case of deadarm so even though he is the announced starter, they most probably will be looking to throw up somebody against the Giants instead.  For all those people who have been complaining that the Giants MUST trade away one of their starters to get a hitter, because other teams are fine with a lousy 5th starter, this is what other teams have to deal with when they have a lousy 5th starter.

As noted above, Zito has been a master in Coors despite, which they did not mention, the fact that most pitchers that rely on breaking pitches cannot figure out how to do well in Coors.  In an article I read about the humidor rumor, a pitcher noted that he can tell the difference between the two balls:  the humidor balls are harder and not as soft, allowing the pitcher to be able to grip the ball better and do more with it with breaking pitches.  So what Zito has done here is amazing!  

However, it should be noted that he did a lot of that when he was struggling to perform for the Giants, and that this season, when he seems to have returned to his career norms, he got blasted in his start here earlier this season, giving up 6 runs in 5.1 IP.

But given that the D-Rox are unsure who will start, and if Hammel started, we should easily beat up on him, I will give the lean to Zito on this one, as he has righted his boat in recent games, and when he was blasted by the D-Rox earlier, he was in a down period of the season, he appears to lose his bearings every once in a while, but when he is locked in, he shuts down the other team:  in 32 starts, he has allowed more than 3 ER in a game 9 times, so in over 70% of his starts, the other team has scored 3 ER or less against him.  This should be the Giants win that puts another few more nails into the D-Rox's coffin.

Game 3:  Jorge De La Rosa vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

Giants:  Cain has been San Francisco's most effective starter in the second half. The Giants have won 11 of his 13 outings since the All-Star break. He has exceeded 200 innings for the fourth year in a row.

D-Rox:  De La Rosa gave up just his third home run to a left-handed hitter this season, a two-run Kelly Johnson shot, in his last start. But that truly hurt in a 3-1 loss to the D-backs. Still, De La Rosa threw seven innings and gave up three runs.

Cain has been the man!  All season, consistently pitching, he has taken another step in his development and maturation as a starter.  He has a 3.64 ERA in 8 starts there, and his results have been mostly good there, except for blowouts he suffered in his first and second full seasons.  Otherwise, he has had good outings in the  last three starts he has had there, and five out of his last six.  It should be another good one for him.

De La Rosa is like their version of Jonathan Sanchez, only not as good, and not as healthy.  He missed a number of games this season (over a third) and his home ERA is an unhealthy 5.25 over his career, though it is only 4.06 this season, which is a bit flukey because his road ERA is a 4..44.  So he has not pitched particularly well at home previously in his career, whereas Cain has been pretty good in 6 of his 8 starts there.  And Colorado has been scuffling in recent games, though that is partly because they are built to win at home and not on the road, and they have been on the road for a while.

I would lean towards the Giants because of Cain's dominance and steadiness, but note that De La Rosa has been part of the D-Rox's surge:  since he returned in early August, in 10 starts he has a 3.60 ERA and they have gone 7-3 with him starting.  Should be a good match between two good pitchers.

Giants Thoughts

First, what a game Bumgarner pitched against the Cubs!  For those not aware, Wrigley Field can be a launching pad when the wind is blowing out like it was yesterday, and the Giants took advantage of that, blasting out four homers (though I heard that one of Uribe's would have been a homer anyway).  However, Bumgarner threw a shut-out 7 innings with 9 K's and only 1 BB (7 hits) in that wind tunnel, one of the most amazing pitching performances this season!  And he's still a 21 year old "baby"!

And that with the pressure of setting history if he could keep the Cubs from scoring 3 runs or more.  This historic streak of 17 (plus 22 games allowing 4 runs or less) demonstrates what I'm talking about when you have a rotation full of ace-type pitchers all pitching on sync (I guess Posey has learned how to handle a major league pitching staff!).  Sure, you can have one hitter on a hot streak helping you, but one hitter can only do so much.  So can only one pitcher, but when you have five starters capable of doing this, you make it that much easier for your team to win games in the short run and the long run.  And with only 9 more games to play, they are on the brink of paying off big time, with a playoff berth

The Others In the Way

Now the Giants face the D-Rox in Colorado, and basically the pressure is all on Colorado because if they don't sweep, the odds are against them coming back and getting into the playoffs, unless two teams among the Giants, 'Dres, and Braves collapse.  We see your historic Tulo 14 homers in 15 games and raise you a historic17 games of 3 runs or less (and 13 of those games were 2 runs or less).  Plus, they will end the season with 4 games in St. Louis, and they have been horrible on the road, going a lousy 31-46 whereas the Cards have the third best home record in the NL at 46-28.  

San Diego, meanwhile, will be home for 3 against the Reds, who is about to clinch the Central and would like to do it as soon as possible so that they can start figuring out their rotation (they have 5 or 6 starters they can turn to, not as great as the Giants, but still, they have some decisions to make) and adjusting the schedule to get them there. The Reds are one of the few teams with a winning record on the road, so they won't be pushovers.  Then they got 4 against the suddenly hot and tough Cubs that the Giants barely beat in Chicago.  All at home, but they will be lucky to be 4-3 during the stretch and could be 3-4 or worse, before heading to SF for the final series of the season.

The Braves are suddenly in the equation, after losing three straight to the Phillies to basically ensure the Phils get the NL East title, and has a 8-12 record to fall back to the pack of NL West teams.  They play three on the road with the Nats, who have been playing around .500 lately and at home for the season, so it is not like they will be easy to sweep.  Then the Braves are at home for the rest of the season, with 3 against Florida and 3 against the Phillies again.  The Marlins have been playing poorly lately, but .500 on the road, so I can see the Braves go 3-3 for those 6 games, then will be playing for their playoff life against the Phillies, who should have clinched by now, but even if not, should be keeping up the pressure so that they enter the playoffs on some sort of a roll.

Giants Destiny Literally In Their Hands:  How They Swing Their Bats

So the Giants look like they have their destiny in their hands, given the tough road to the playoffs that the other teams have.  They need to win just one in Colorado to kill the D-Rox's chances, then take care of the D-backs 2-1 at home (I know, not a given), to enter in the final series against SD basically in the position where the team that wins the series most probably wins the NL West title, though at that point, it could possibly lead to a tie if SD wins, whereupon there would be a one game playoff on Monday between the two teams and Bumgarner would be starting.

Baggarly reported in the link above that Bochy had a talk with the hitters before the game in the cramped visiting batting cage at Wrigley and the team responded, albeit boosted by the weather conditions (yet the Cubs were likewise, then, supposedly also boosted but were shut out).  The hitters need to prove in Colorado that they truly responded, though, of course, Coors is not a true test because it is still a hitter's park, humidor or no humidor.

Speaking of which, it was Jeremy Affeldt who remarked that he knew a humidor ball from a non-humidor ball.  Hopefully, he will teach his fellow Giants pitchers the nuances of that so that they can figure out for themselves on the mound whether they have a humidor ball or not, because if they can do that, they know what they can and cannot do with the ball, and make allowances for how they pitch when using that ball.  They could be more aggressive with the humidor ball, but more careful with the non-humidor ball.

One wild card I would put out there is Pablo Sandoval.  He has not been hitting at all, and has looked pretty horrible trying, from the accounts I have heard.  However, yesterday, in his PH appearance, he had a Panda-esque hit where the ball was low, out of the zone, and he stung it for a base hit.  Could be a wild card off the bench when we need some offense.

Also, the news is that Andres Torres is practicing and feeling good.  He could be ready to PH by Saturday, then could start soon afterward, once he feels ready.  He has been leery of a set-back, in his public statements, but Bochy has been much more positive that Torres would be back with the team this weekend.  Look like Bochy was right.

Huff and Puff and Blow the Humidor Down

I would also add this factoid from Andy Baggarly, who tweeted, "Aubrey Huff is 2-6 s/2 HRs off him," him being today's pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin.

Huff, heh, what more can one say about Huff Daddy?  Near-900 OPS for the season, 148 games played already, so he'll be around 155 games played.  25 home runs, 84 RBIs (so he should be near 30 HR and 100 RBI when all said and done), .381 OBP, plus leadership in the clubhouse and a down-to-earth, fun-loving attitude, that probably makes the clubhouse that much more fun and laid-back, which is important when you lose games that just sticks in your gut.  He's been scuffling for a week now and having a sub-par month so far, but nothing drastically bad, still OK production from him.

Posey for NL Rookie of the Year

But despite all that, basically the team's offense is being led by Buster Posey down the stretch.  Since the 11 inning squeaker the Giants won in extra innings on August 14 over San Diego, where it looked the 'Dres were going to shove Jonathan Sanchez's statement up the Giants collectives noses,  Buster has hit .310/.350/.574/.924 in 33 games (36 Giants games) with 8 HR in 129 AB, 23 RBI.

Meanwhile, he has guided the staff, which has been raving about him, to a historic streak in limiting runs allowed, thrown out numerous base stealers ("I ain't having that!"), and doing all this with the pressure of the team trying to make their first playoffs in 7 seasons, and dangerously close to not doing it if the Giants should blink and start playing badly.  And he has hit numerous key homers that has helped his team win games (7-1 when he hit a homer during this period), particularly that one in the 8th that won the game 1-0 for the Giants.

I get that he hasn't played all season, like Jaime Garcia and Jason Heyward, but both stats has faded a bit during the season, Garcia's team had faded off (and he's been extremely lucky, from a sabermetic viewpoint), as had Heyward, and Heyward has only batted 2nd most of the season, while Posey has batted 4th most of the season, particularly after he became the full-time catcher.  Seasonal lines:

Heyward:  81 runs, 18 HR, 71 RBI, .285/.400/.472/.873, 187 ISO, 4.6 WAR
B. Posey:  54 runs, 16 HR, 64 RBI, .323/.370/.524/.895, 201 ISO, 4.0 WAR

And undoubtedly his WAR is understated because sabermetrics has not caught up on the defensive side for catchers.  So their WAR is comparable (assuming his defense is worth about half a win at least) despite Heyward playing "2 more months" (which is incorrect, he might have started the season with the Braves, but he was on the DL for 3 weeks, so he has about one month more playing time than Posey).

And Garcia has been very lucky.  He has a 2.70 ERA but his FIP is 3.42 and his xFIP is 3.74.  His HR/FB is a low 7.4% (mean that pitchers regress to is 10%) and he has been horrible in September, when his team needed him most.  And I just saw a tweet on THT that states that the Cards have shut down Garcia for the season, so he's not playing the full season either, and, in fact, are missing critical games here, the Cards need to win every game to have a realistic chance of making the playoffs.

Based on all this, I don't see why people are not seriously considering Posey for the NL ROY award.  And if Bumgarner had come up at the same time, he would probably be giving Posey a good run for the money on the award as well.  The Giants have been blessed with these two players.

Your 2010 Giants Playoff Chances: 2010.09.07

Came across an interesting website called "coolstandings.com" which they explain how they do it here:

How do we calculate these statistics? Basically we simulate the rest of the season millions of times, based on every team's performance to date and its remaining schedule. We then look at how many "seasons" a team won its division or won the wildcard, and voila - we have our numbers. 

The trick, of course, is to determine what chance each team has of beating every other team. Our method is to use simple team statistics (e.g. runs scored and runs against) to predict how each team will fare against all others. For those of you familiar with baseball prediction, we use a variation of the Bill James "Pythagorean Theorem" to predict results.

According to their current standings, which they update here, the Giants right now have a 37.7% chance of winning the division, 13.6% chance of winning the wild card (when not winning the division), for a total of 51.3% of making the playoffs.  That is only 5th, though in the NL, as the Reds have a 96.2% chance of making the playoffs, almost entirely through the division title, the Braves have a 87.4% chance, the Phillies 67.6%, and the 'Dres 65.5%.

With only 24 games left for the Giants, that theoretically makes it hard for them to make the playoffs, but if the 'Dres starting pitching is finally imploding like I have been predicting, there is no way they go forward winning like they did earlier in the season, which is a key assumption of the analysis (and LeBlanc has already been removed from their rotation).  Particularly since the Giants still have 7 games left to play against them.  The key to winning is in their hands, if they can dominate San Diego in those 7 games, and go at least 5-2, that is probably enough to win the division, assuming they match the record for the other games plus that the D-Rox don't go on a crazy win streak and win 23 of their 25 remaining games, or something crazy like that.

Whoever wins the division will need to hold off the on-rushing D-Rox this season, stop them cold in some way, or their ego will be unmatched and they will be fearless for years, as they have been doing this for the past few years - basically winning every game in September.  Unless someone can stiff-arm them out of the playoffs this season, they will think it is no big deal to win so many games at the end and make the playoffs, as it is when players start thinking about things that typically gets them out of their rhythm and not play up to their abilities, like Lincecum in August.  The pressure gets to them in some way, that is why you want vets on your team at this time of the season, they are used to dealing with the pressure (generally, relative to young players).

2010 AFL Rosters Released

The rosters for the AFL have been released.  The Giants team is the Scottsdale Scorpions and the prospects playing this season, at least at the start, are:

• Brandon Belt, 1B
• Charlie Culberson, 2B
• Conor Gillaspie, 3B

Oddly enough, there are only three Giants on the team this season. Colorado has seven prospects, Baltimore eight, Washington six, Arizona seven. I think the Giants usually have five or six usually, but then again, I guess there were not a lot of prospects who did well enough to fit the slots the Giants are allowed, they are only allowed to include prospects who fit their slots.

My Stance on Brian Sabean: It's Not Set in Stone

I wrote the below on Andy Baggarly's excellent blog, ExtraBaggs, in reference to his comment in the last week that Giants fans have already made up their minds, positive or negative, about the team, about Brian Sabean, after posting a number of Sabean positive comment there, and thought I would also post it here, with small edits (as I am wont to do):

And to reference Andy's point that each of our view's are set, let me say that this is my opinion right now. The team looks pretty good now and the future looks pretty good too. But my view can change.

For I was one of you long ago, blaming Sabean for horrible drafting when I took it upon myself to actually study the draft and see how unsuccessful Sabean has been relative to other good teams, as I wanted to build a case for getting rid of him. And, what you know, I found that winning teams just suck at drafting. Which doesn't make sense, that's how they became winning teams, right, having good GM? Yet somehow they were geniuses when losing but idiots when winning?

So I studied the draft and found that even the #1 pick overall don't guarantee anything but a queasy feeling in your gut until your guy actually performs and play well. Worse than a coin flip (see for yourself: http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=overall_pick&overall_pick=1&draft_type=junreg)

And for the 21-30 picks that winning teams get, well, that's basically like buying a raffle ticket at your local school or charity. And draft picks beyond that is like buying a Lotto ticket or scratcher: the odds are horribly low, no matter where you are in the draft, certainly lower than most prospect hounds think they are.

So I feel I understand the difficulty of how hard it really is to build a team via the draft, and particularly when you are not getting the top 3 picks in the draft, like which the Rays did for like a dozen years. And thus can appreciate how good a job Sabean has done in building a team via the draft without extreme losing, which the Braves did to rebuild in the late 80's and which the Devil Rays have used to become the Rays.

Support of Sabean Does Not Mean Carte Blanche

But given the past, I don't give Sabean that long a rope. I'm still mad that the Giants could have tried to sign Vlad Guerrero and still get most of the players they eventually got, they went for mediocre instead of filet mignon, and the Zito and Rowand deals didn't make me happy either, though I could understand it from their point of view, I am just not that happy with risk and both can fairly be called bad deals.

Two years is good for me, enough to keep him around, but short enough that if he does something extremely stupid, Neukom can fire him and only have to eat one year's salary. He has done a good job so far, and thus I support him keeping his job so that he can finish the job. He deserves that courtesy for the good work he has done with the team - so far.

But he shouldn't get comfortable either. Like Neukom, I expect a certain amount of progress (undefinable but you know it when you see it) and I'm willing to cut him loose if I feel that we need someone else to take over and continue the progress of the past few seasons. But so far, so good.

Give Me Another Belt, Barrkeep: Brandon Belt

Brandon Belt is the Foppert or Runzler of 2010, rising up fast, either in the system and/or in prospect status, in no time at all:

Tm	Lev	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2 Teams	A+-AA	105	377	79	139	34	10	15	84	19	8	70	73	.369	.469	.631	1.100
San Jose	A+	77	269	62	103	28	4	10	62	18	7	58	50	.383	.492	.628	1.121
Richmond	AA	28	108	17	36	6	6	5	22	1	1	12	23	.333	.405	.639	1.044
1 Season		105	377	79	139	34	10	15	84	19	8	70	73	.369	.469	.631	1.100

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/5/2010.

As you can see, he hit very well in Advanced A San Jose and then basically did not miss a beat in rising to AA Richmond, hitting a robust .333/.405/.639/1.044, with 5 HR in 108 AB, 12 walks and 23 strikeouts. Not great ratios there, but doable.

And he did this despite not being a highly viewed prospect at the draft - some felt that he was an overdraft, that is, the Giants probably could have waited a few rounds and still picked him up - and he did not even make Baseball America's Top 30 Giants prospect list for the 2010 season.  Reportedly, the Giants tinkered with his batting mechanics and apparently hit the proverbial home run with Belt.

Similar Production by Similar Age Comparison

I strongly believe that age makes a big difference in how you evaluate how a prospect is doing in the minors, and the best way of seeing that is going into recent prior seasons and finding players who hit similarly at the same age or younger. I think that gives us fans a view into how good he might become when he reaches the majors, and at minimum, provides a pool of similar players.  This was how I got really excited over how well Sandoval did, and why I think 2010 is only a bump in the road for the Kung Fu Panda.

YR		Age	G	AB	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2008	Matt Wieters	22	61	208	12	38	29	.365	.460	.625	1.085
2010	Brandon Belt	22	28	108	5	12	23	.333	.405	.639	1.044
2009	Brandon Synder	22	58	201	10	27	45	.343	.421	.597	1.018
2009	Pedro Alvarez	22	60	222	13	34	59	.333	.419	.590	1.009
2010	Domonic Brown	22	65	236	15	29	51	.318	.391	.602	.993
2009	Ike Davis	22	55	207	13	26	60	.309	.386	.565	.951
2010	Ryan Kalish	22	41	150	8	28	21	.293	.404	.527	.931
2005	Dustin Pedroia	21	66	256	8	34	26	.324	.409	..508	.917
2005	Ryan Zimmerman	20	63	233	9	15	34	.324	.406	.508	.917
2008	Pablo Sandoval	21	44	175	8	8	20	.337	.364	.549	.913

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
Generated 8/5/2010.

Clearly, Belt is much different in that he is doing it in a much smaller sample than anyone else, but the others' sample is relatively small as well, nobody put in more than 66 games.  But at the same time, he is that much higher a performer than most of the rest as well, so he could drop down a bit and still match the others.

Overall, he compares very favorably with the players here who achieved similar numbers in AA, and many of them have gone up to the majors did OK or better, and at minimum, were highly ranked/rated by the prospect experts.  Matt Weiters was considered one of the best prospects in baseball and Domonic Brown, when he was brought up just recently to the majors, was considered the top prospect in the minors (after the graduation earlier of Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, among others), as well as Pedro Alvarez.  Pedroia, Zimmerman, and Sandoval are considered some of the best young hitters in the game today.  Only Synder has not done much in performance in the majors or highly ranked.

Analyzing what Belt has to do just to match each of the above hitters in performance, he does not have to do that much (relative to what he is doing now)  to match Kalish (.190/.403/.238/.641), Sandoval (.343/.349/.403/.752), Zimmerman (.320/.336/.432/.768), Pedroia (.318/.407/.412/.819), and Ike Davis (.283/.366/.485/.851).  And remember, both Sandoval and Zimmerman were younger, so that is why Belt does not have to do as much, both being younger, was not quite as developed yet.  He still has to hit relatively well to catch up with Brown (.305/.380/.570/.950), Alvarez (.333/.431/.544/.975), Synder (.355/.438/.548/.986), and Weiters (.400/.512/.610/1.122).

And that appears to be the dividing line, he is probably more like an Ike Davis than the elite prospects in the group he has to catch up with (except for Synder).  Then again, Ike Davis has done pretty well himself in the majors this season, he probably would be a strong contender for Rookie of the Year if it were not for standout performances from Jason Heyward, Jaime Heyward, and now Buster Posey.

But each player is individual, so it is not correct to say that Belt will necessarily do as well as any of these players if/when he makes the majors.  But I do feel that this is a good way to get a feel for what he might do by looking at same aged hitters with similar performances in the past.  That table above is very encouraging.

Spot Open in 40 Man Roster

With Bautista DFAed and Wellemeyer re-joining the team as long relief (and 5th starter once the Giants decide to shut down Bumgarner as a starter), as announced today, there is now a spot on the team's 40 man roster.  I think the Giants are envisioning that spot in case someone falls to them via the waiver wire.

But as the team with the second best record in the NL, they will be the second to last among NL teams to put in a waiver claim on NL players (15th) and second to last among all teams to put in a waiver claim on AL players (29th).  Of course, since it is a blind process, they will have to make their claims without any knowledge of whether any other team ahead of them on the waiver claim list has already claimed him first.  It is doubtful that anybody will fall to them, and the only team they need to block right now is anyone that they think San Diego might want, which would be starting pitching, though should any player go all the way through, as many high priced under-achievers probably would have, then they would be free to negotiate with the waiving team as to a trade.

So it is very possible that the Giants might have a spot and no waiver person to put on it.  Should that happen, I think the Giants will use the spot to bring up Brandon Belt for a September call-up.  They are really tight on 40-man space, so if that spot is used, then Belt most probably will not get the call-up.  But if they should end up having that spot free, I would have to think that they will take the opportunity to bring him up and check him out in the majors, as the Giants have indicated an interest in a left-handed bat and Belt is a lefty.

The Trade that Fell Through, The Fallen Prospect 

As reported by Baggerly late last night, the deal that fell through on the trade deadline day was a trade for the Mariner's closer, ex-Giant David Aardsma, for whom the Giants were looking to give up two minor league prospects, from a list of minor leaguers that reportedly included Ehire Adrianza.  How his star has fallen!  He has not done that well at all last season and this season, but is still young so I have hope, but clearly the Giants don't think he's necessary for our system any more.  And not that Crawford has done that well either, so SS looks pretty low on depth now for the Giants again, unless they try to put Burriss back there again.

Now, if Aardsma can make his way through waivers, and he might since his ERA is high (though good peripherals) and he's probably owed another $1M still but he is still controlled for two more years, the Giants could try to revisit the trade again.  The Mariners might have backed off on their demands by then, or might have become enamored with one of the prospects on the Giants list with more due diligence and scouting.  Something to keep an eye on.