Your 2020 Giants: Top Giants Prospects Lists

I compiled some Top Giants Prospects lists, some only had 10, others had a lot more:

• Baseball America Top 10 Giants Prospects
• MLB Pipeline Top 30 Giants Prospects
• Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Giants Prospects
• FG:  Top 36 Giants Prospects
• The Athletic:  Keith Law Top 20 Giants Prospects
• Minor League Baseball Analyst (MiLBA)

Also interesting are rankings of the Giants farm system in the majors:

• Baseball America: #14
• MLB Pipeline:  #10
• Baseball Prospectus:  Has not been released yet
• Fangraphs:  Has not been released yet
• Keith Law:  #10
• Minor League Baseball Analyst:  #6 (A- in hitters, C+ for pitching, A for Top-End Talent)

I know I said this for my last post, but this one (plus the last one, combined) is probably going to be in lieu of my usual Big Six prospect post (so refer to my post on Top 100 for further info on the top prospects) that I've been doing in the spring most seasons.  :^)

Of course, with the coronavirus delay to the season, who knows how much of the 2020 season will be played.  Stay safe and healthy out there!

Your 2018 Giants: You Say You Want a Rebuild

Good morning, ah!  There are a lot of unhappy Giants fans today, who would rather cry instead, singing, "I'm down, I'm really down, how can I laugh, when I know I'm down?" Don't cry baby cry, or twist and shout, you can't do that, because I got a feeling.  My thoughts.

My Current Baseball and Giants Blog Links

Intro:  this post has some of the links I used to have on the side of my blog content.

Ugh, Blogger just did something to lose all my links.  But it didn't remove the widgets that shows posts, so I'm going to post the links in this post, and widget this post.  While this is slower to get to, I don't really think that many of you are using my links anyway to get to places, I assume most of you are savvy enough to have them bookmarked somewhere so that you can get to what you want when you want.  In addition, I can't remember every link I had, so I'm going with the ones I can remember, for the most part.  But let me know if you prefer links on the side and I'll think about complying.

This was last updated May 3, 2018.

Your 2016 Giants: Prospect Musings

A while back, I was invited to participate in a Giants prospect discussion, where we answered five questions for this site, MLB Top Prospects, which is linked to the side as well.  The results was released a couple of weeks ago and I had been meaning to put it up, but just been busy with other things, including my own posts (though another consideration was that this chat reminded me of an internet bully who tried to use my dead father in an effort to insult and embarrass me, so I was a bit upset about that, as I don't like being reminded of people like him; but I decided it's out there, I should at least link to it and share it).  Here is a link to the 2016 San Francisco Top Prospects Chat.

My Business Plan: Good Pitching is Hard to Find, Harder to Acquire

This is the latest in the business plan series that I've been publishing over time.  Though additions have been fewer in recent years, that is more dependent on new research studies coming to my attention that augments what I have captured in the plan so far (here is a link to the Table of Contents).

Pitching is something that is pretty clearly a key component of this business plan, of building a championship team.  From the studies on success in the playoffs, we find that offense has not influence on the results, on winning World Championships, that it is pitching and fielding that wins World Championships.  From the roster structure, we find that building with pitchers reduces the risk of developing good players, only to find that you need to trade to complete your team, because for pitching, the cream rise to the top.   If you have 3 good pitchers, you have a great rotation, but if you have 3 good 1B (and only 1B), the team has to trade at least one of them (two for an NL team), which introduces a trade risk.

From the Pythagorean calculations, we find that when you have a great defense, you can actually win 90 games easily even when your offense is very sub-par.  Thus a rebuild is faster when a team focuses on pitching first - as cream rises to the top - and supplementing the offense - due to Pythagorean - to complete the team.  Now a study shows another positive aspect of developing your own pitching:  that's the only sure way of obtaining good to great pitchers.

Trading Prospects is a Sucker's Bet Most Times, so is Signing Other Team's Free Agents

The Hardball Times publishes a Baseball Annual and the 2012 edition had a very interesting study in it, looking at how much of an advantage it is to know your own personnel. The chapter is "Down with Other People's Players" by Matt Swartz, page 207.   He noted:

But does this extra information matter?  Does another team's extra knowledge about a player affect the market?  Should GMs think twice before signing a free agent from another team?  Should they wonder why the other team is so willing to trade that highly ranked prospect? 

Yes, a thousand times, yes.

He calculated the $ per WAR for all types of free agent deals and he found that while the premium for hitters is only 17% when signing other team's players, it is 93% for starting pitchers and 139% for relief pitchers.  He found that there were some hometown discounts given, but not enough to explain the premium.

Meanwhile, he examined players' performances after signing or resigning, versus Oliver projections.  Re-signed hitters do not beat projections any better than newly signed hitters.  More importantly, re-signed pitchers beat their projections, while newly signed free agent pitchers fell very short of their projections.  That's a double-whammy right there, not only do you pay a lot more for these free agent pitchers, you also end up with less than projected performances as well, as if the former team knew that they were not going to continue to pitch as well as before.

Trades are no better.  He found that "everyday players and starting pitchers both fall short of projections more often after being traded."  Given the evidence above, this is not surprising, "we should expect that players who are traded will underperform projections more than players who stay on the same team."  "Teams probably were able to detect injury risks that would not be observable to an outside projection system and send those players away in advance."

Strong Evidence That Teams Really Do Know Their Own Players Better Than Other Teams Do

He says that it is very strong evidence that teams know their own players - hitters and pitchers - better than even reasonable forecast systems do.  "Caveat emptor."  Trading is fraught with risk because other teams do not willingly give up good prospects to you.  Signing free agents is particularly fraught with risk, and particularly with pitching, because you need to overpay (roughly 100% premium) for expected performance but meanwhile these free agent pitchers tend to underperform, giving you a double whammy.  Again, teams generally know what they got and don't let go of players who they think are worth keeping.

The same goes for prospects.  He examined prospects from Baseball America's Top 20 from each offseason from 1990 to 2007, covering 360 prospects, dividing them into those kept and those traded away.  He found that "highly ranked prospects who are traded are more likely to be busts than the highly ranked prospects that teams retain." That was true by many angles, for while the average ranking was roughly the same, the average WAR for traded prospects was less than half that of the prospects kept, who on average ended up being good players (average WAR of 17.1).  Furthermore, "the biggest difference was the number of elite prospects who managed 15 WAR, which 42 percent of untraded prospects were able to do, but only 18 percent of traded prospects did." "Teams are better able to tell which of their own minor leaguers are going to succeed than other teams' scouts, who see them less frequently."

In conclusion, he noted:

The safest bet is to develop your own players and keep them when they seem likely to maintain or improve their performance.  When teams do need external help, they should fill holes with the reservation and suspicion derived from the knowledge that if a player is available, there is probably a reason.

Duh:  Teams Need to Develop Their Own Good Pitching

Therefore, it behooves teams to develop their own pitching, that is, those who will lead the way to championships, per the latest studies on winning championships.  I know that was really obvious before, but this new study makes the imperative that much more greater to follow this rule.  It is better to have the pitcher in hand than to rely on the trade or free agent market to acquire them, as the pitching you need in order to win championships most probably is not available in any other way, whether in trade or via free agency, and whatever is out there on the free agent market is way overpriced (100% or more).  The exception there, of course, are Boras players, so they might be good, but they most likely will still be overpriced.

On top of that, given that it is so hard to find any prospect in the draft, the most efficient way for a team to rebuild a world championship-caliber contender is to focus first on pitching, for all the reasons outlined in this business plan, the flexibility, the control, the risk mitigation with regards to finding multiples, the ability to win with subpar offenses, all that adds up to a quicker turnaround when a team focuses first on finding and developing good to great pitchers.

Once you get that core group together, it is relatively easier over time to trade for or sign bullpen arms who can round out your group, and once you start winning and start getting back of the first round picks, where it is much harder to find talent (as per my draft research), you can locate useful hitters and pitchers (like the Giants did with Brown, Panik, Stratton), guys who can complement the good players who the team had found and developed previously.  Meanwhile, once you got your great rotation, you still need to prime the pump, in case of injury (Lowry), reduced performance (Lincecum?, Sanchez), or free agency (Lincecum?), and still draft and develop pitchers.  The Giants appear to be doing that, with Crick, Stratton, and Blackburn in hand.

Your 2013 Giants: International Signings Rankings

Sickel's Minor League Ball recently published a post on the ranking of International Signings in 2012.  The Giants did well, signing two of the Top 10 free agents:  Gustavo Cabrera (OF) and Nathanael Javier (3B).

• Gustavo Cabrera (5th): Solid overall package of tools. A lot of potential with the bat.
• Nathanael Javier (10th):  Nice swing, athletic. Has a few bad habits defensively. Could be very good all around player.

And if I understand that ranking well enough, this ranking includes all international signings, including players not traditionally considered part of the international signing date that occurs mid-year, if I understand things right, there are at least a couple of Cuban defectors ahead of Cabrera plus the Korean pitcher the Dodgers signed.  If you take them out, then only Beras is now ahead of Cabrera, and you move everyone up 4 spots, to cover just the international signings governed by the mid-year deadline.

That is similar to a ranking that Mayo did last season just before the signings started:

• Gustavo Cabrera (1st): Cabrera has dazzled scouts with his bat speed, hitting mechanics and raw power, but he has also opened eyes with his instincts on the bases. His all-around speed combined with his aggressive style, strong arm and athletic body have brought about comparisons to Arizona outfielder Justin Upton when he was the same age. Cabrera’s prior experience in the United States could prove to be an advantage in his development.
• Nathanael Javier (11th): The big third baseman is considered a solid all-around player and is projected to hit for average and power in the future. He has impressed scouts with his large body frame, lean muscle mass and high baseball IQ. He appears to have the perfect body for third base but might have to move to first base if he gets too big to play the position. Some believe Javier is second only to Gustavo Cabrera and Wendell Rijo in terms of upside and overall talent. Javier just might have all the tools Major League scouts look for in a prospect, and he has the potential to be a special bat with plus power.

With the adjustment, these are close, Cabrera is 2nd in Sickel's, 1st in Mayo, Javier 6th in Sickel's, 11th in Mayo's.  

ogc thoughts

Given the article on top prospects by BA the other day (and Mayo), I thought this is a good point to remind people that we had two really good signings last season on the International front.  I think the Giants did well to take advantage of a level playing field (every team had the same amount that they could spend on international signings) and concentrate their spending on two top prospects (again, basically two of the top 10), because there will be a high to low budget slot assigned like in the amateur draft, based on win/loss record, starting in 2013 for all the teams, and the Giants will be at a disadvantage then, relative to most teams.  Though, to their advantage, they are looking to supplement their farm system with international signings, and went for the biggest bang for the buck, instead of going for volume.  Other teams that are more desperate for more bodies with some talent than a lot of talent in one body might have spread out their set budget across more prospects.

On top of that, these signings complement nicely all the pitchers we picked up in the June amateur draft, and gives the Giants some additional depth at 3B, which sooner than later will need a replacement, as Pablo will surely eat his way to 1B in a few years (or off of our team).  Currently, only Duvall look like a possible replacement in a couple of years.

In addition, I've been thinking that 3B might be a good position to move Posey to at some point in the future.  It is not as dangerous there as 2B, physically, and his bat so far would be considered superior there still.  He once was a SS, and while not of MLB quality, he obviously has the arm for it and the reaction to handle the hot corner.    Assuming Posey does move, Susac and Hector appears to be the most likely contenders to take over from Buster at that point.  In any case, I hope the Giants sign Buster to a long term contract this spring, that is the thing I most want to see (followed by a deal with Lincecum long-term).

And the OF is not set either, we will have Pagan, but the early 30's are treacherous area for baseball players, and we might have Pence, but again, he'll be in his 30's as well.   I don't know if Blanco, Kieschnick,  Peguero (though he would be nice for an "All P" outfield), or Brown will be an answer in the future either, though I'm still very hopeful of Brown.  So Gustavo is a very nice injection of talent into that area of player development.  And comparisons with Justin Upton is very nice, very nice indeed.  I recall reading that had the new budget system not been in place, Cabrera probably would have gotten $3M+, so he could be a bigger talent than AnVil or RafRod ever were.

Sickel's Prelim 2013 Top 50 Hitters and Pitchers

John Sickels recently published his Preliminary 2013 Top 50 Hitters and Pitchers lists on his blog.

No Giants hitters made the list, but two Giants pitchers did:

• #36:  Kyle Crick, RHP
• #38:  Clayton Blackburn, RHP

He also reviewed his 2012 lists (Hitters 1, Hitters 2, Pitchers 1, Pitchers 2)

Here are the descriptions he gave on the one Giants prospect that made last year's list:

• 20) Gary Brown, OF, San Francisco Giants, Grade B+: Hit .279/.347/.385 with 40 walks, 87 strikeouts in 538 at-bats for Double-A Richmond. Stole 33 but was caught 18 times, way too many for a guy with his speed.

Your 2012 Giants: AFL Roster

Baseball America recently published the full rosters for the AFL teams from each MLB team, announcing final additions (mostly the pitchers, of which none were named last time) to the preliminary roster published earlier.  Here are the players who will be playing for the AFL from the Giants this fall, barring injury:

• Jacob Dunnington, RHP
• Chris Gloor, LHP
• Heath Hembree, RHP
• Dan Runzler, LHP
• Ricky Oropesa, 1B
• Joe Panik, MI
• Chris Dominguez, 3B/OF
• Gary Brown, OF

MLB.com's 2012 Giants Top 20 Prospects: Post-season Edition

The MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo publishes a Top 100 Overall and Top 20 by Team ranking both before the season as well as after.  He just released the post-season rankings.  The Top 100 is here.  The 2012 Giants Top 20 is here.

Happy Holidays: Catching up

Happy Holidays to everyone!

I've been busy (which is good for me, but not for a blog) so I wanted to point out some good posts for those looking for good Giants stuff to read:

• BA recently released their Top 10 for the Giants.   DrB has his take here at his website.  Crazy Crabbers shares some of the BA discussion at his site, which I read regularly.  Lots of good info and discussions at each, that's about all the time I have nowadays, commenting here and there (it's tough, Shankbone!).
• McCovey Chronicles has a nice take on the recent Barry Bonds sentencing.  

Giants Thoughts

The prospect list, I think DrB has a great description of it.  2-8 can be in a different order depending on what values the ranker assigns to certain factors, between talent, potential, performance, and the intangibles.  I mentioned there that I think Joseph and Hembree are above Panik solely for potential, but Panik is probably close to being a regular in the majors, and I think that is where some disagreement over the rankings is probably occurring.  I don't see why Ehire Adrianza is above Hector Sanchez.  While I love BA, I find that they tend to underestimate prospects who knows how to avoid the strikeout, like when they whiffed totally on Pablo Sandoval.  But it is a nice Top 10.

Just remember the old rubric about Top 10 prospect lists, out of any farm system, only around 2 will ever become regulars in the majors, 2 be significant bench/relievers, and that extends far beyond the Top 10, often.  Top 10 lists are not infallible, neither is BA.  But I will say that when I used BA's Top 10 list a few years back to guide my keeper league draft, more often than not, I was directed to good prospects.

From Crabbers kind sharing of the discussion, here are my thoughts.  I am not really too surprised by the Villalona 40 man rostering.  A guy who sues a team to get them to take him back usually is not a guy willing to rest on his laurels (or $2.2M).  That to me meant that he did his best to stay in baseball shape while he was not in professional baseball.  That's not ideal, but it also means that he has a lot of time (like a prisoner) to work on getting into shape while he's "locked up", that is locked out of major league baseball in the U.S.  I would also think such an experience will either toughen up the guy or he would just take his money and go cry in his drink at his"chair/table" at his favorite bar.  The lawsuit, to me, suggested that he got toughened up.

Of course, just my speculation, take it or leave it.  But remember, he was a Top 40 prospect in ALL of baseball before he got shut down.  Unless he ate himself out of baseball, like Jerome did, that talent is still there.  He's still young, I think 22, plenty of time for him to still figure things out, though obviously the 8 ball is against him in terms of experience.  But that talent and potential has got to be still there if he's in any semblance of a good shape.  We will see.

I disagree about Belt.  You give him a shot and see where he was at.  Letting him get shown up at the major league level will do nothing for his development, confidence or ego.  If he's like Heyward, then that's a nice problem to have, but it is not like when Pedroia was doing horribly, Pedroia was just having bad BABIP problems, he was actually taking walks and avoiding strikeouts.  Belt was clearly being shown up by major league pitching.  Don't take a scout or someone seeing him swing the bat, the numbers shouted that out clearly.

Lastly, Barry Bonds.  If you want to convict him of not speaking clearly or rambling, then you may as well convict me too, and millions of other people.  Grand Juries are intimidating, I would have been terribly nervous, talk about other things as well as the question at hand.  

I'm still not convinced beyond a doubt that Bonds did anything illegally on his own.  Ted Robinson thinks that there is no way Bonds would take anything, that he is careful, but I disagree, people let their guard down when it comes to their buddies.  What do you know about what people put in the food you eat when you go to a potluck?  You trust them not to screw you by putting hashish or any other illegal substances in there that might affect you.   

Maybe Bonds put a lot of trust in his buddy.  Maybe his buddy, being poor because Bonds is a skinflint, saw a way to make money by using his connection to sell steroids to those not as gifted as his buddy, suggesting that he was helping Barry do it.  Nobody is going to talk to Bonds to verify that this was so.  Maybe he didn't want to testify because it would make him look like the biggest traitor in the world, selling out his buddy (or worse, poisoning him with illegals drugs) to make money.

I don't doubt that Bonds probably took.  I just have a doubt that he knew about it.

Plus, according to research by Boskage House, steroids might not even have any positive effects on performance, so all this could be much ado about nothing.

Your 2011 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

And, frankly, most people who do these sort of stuff focus a significant amount of their ranking on whether a player is able to make the majors that season or not.  So, to be a little different, I try to focus more on the future potential rather than closeness to the majors, partly because that is the fun of prospect watching, part because I don't observe any of the prospects on the field, as others do.

What I do provide is my thoughts and analysis after reading through various available sources of information regarding the Giants prospects, including all the lists out there (which was captured quite nicely by Crazy Crabbers here).  And, as noted, I lean more towards potential than closeness to the majors.

And to add to the Crabber's bounty, here is the Minor League Baseball Analyst's Top 15:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
3. Francisco Peguero, OF
4. Gary Brown, OF
5. Thomas Neal, OF
6. Charlie Culberson, 2B
7. Tommy Joseph, C
8. Jarrett Parker, OF
9. Brandon Crawford, SS
10. Jose Casilla, RHP
11. Chuckie Jones, OF
12. Ehire Adrianza, SS
13. Michael Main, RHP
14. Heath Hembree, RHP
15. Chris Dominguez, 3B

I love reading the Minor League Baseball Analyst, whole-heartedly recommend it.

2011 Giants Big 6 Prospects

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2011 is different again, just like 2009 and 2010, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.  And 2010 had a number of excellent picks in Brown, Parker, Rosin, Hembree, Kickham, Chuckie Jones,

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 2 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the four three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2011:

1. Brandon Belt:  He is the best by far, has a lot of potential plus he's basically in the majors sooner than later.  His story is well known:  Giants overdraft in Round 5 where many thought closer to Round 10, the former pitcher had his swing reworked suing new video tool leading to him leading the minors in a number of stats across the three levels he played in 2010, including AAA.  Showing surprising stolen-base prowess to go with power, he used the whole field while being disciplined enough to take walks at high rates.  Some have called him a left-handed Buster Posey and Will Clark said that Belt has a better swing than he did.  Should be in the heart of the Giants lineup for most of this decade, the Decade of the Giants, hitting for good (20-25 HR) power and average (plus high OBP), probably in the #5 spot (Sandoval, Posey, Belt).
2. Zack Wheeler:  He is the best pitcher by far, in a system left almost barren by quick promotions of pitchers in recent seasons.  He would be more highly ranked on most Top 100 overall prospect lists if he did not miss half the season due to a torn fingernail; yet, still, many ranked him roughly in the 50-75 range in their Top 100 list.  High strikeout rates due to mid-to-high 90's heater, he also got an extremely high percentage of ground balls.  He also has a good slider and power curveball.  Good mechanics seals the deal, he's a potential #1 starter.  Belt only beats him out because Belt is SOOO close to making the majors.  
3. Gary Brown:  With speed to challenge anyone - he reportedly can get to 1B (as RHB) as fast as the best LHB - he can get to many balls in CF that other cannot.  This also helps in elevating his BABIP plus is handy for stealing bases with abandon.  Most analysts said that he's plus plus in defense in CF but that his jittery batting stance scared off most teams despite him leading the Big West in OPS, not just last year, but over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria's breakout season (his ISO also beat out Longoria too).  The major negative that anyone can throw at him is his lack of walks in 2010 in college, but they are ignoring his high walk totals when he was not that good a hitter his first season on college and the walks he got, albeit small samples, but still a significant percentage, in pro ball in 2010:  he had 6 walks in only 54 PA, that's 11%, which is good.  He's my guy to watch for 2011, I think he will prove that he knows how to take walks plus do all the other stuff the experts say he can, and if so, he can rise fast, like Belt in 2010 and Sandoval in 2008, and be pushing for the majors by season's end.
4. Francisco Peguero:  I've never been impressed with him but the major prospect services have, so I have paid attention to him.  Baseball America says that he has the best blend of power and speed in the Giants system.  He has plus plus speed, which helps him provide plus plus defense.  With Brown around, he's probably headed for RF, which he has played in the minors.  Doesn't walk a lot, but like Sandoval coming up the minors, he has kept his strikeout rate down low against pitchers much older than he is, so that bodes well for him climbing up to the majors.  His coverage of the plate has been very good, as he exhibits good bat speed.  He'll be in AA in 2011, most likely, but could be pushing for the majors by season's end with another good season.
5. Heath Hembree:  Reported 100 MPH in college, the Giants fixed up something with the RHP's delivery and he went from walking 18 in 29 IP in college to outright dominating in the Arizona League, striking out 22 in only 11 IP, but more importantly, 0, zero, nil, nada, walks.  BA says that he profiles as a premium closer and that is what I'm thinking too.  Brian Wilson won't last forever nor stay here forever, so Hembree would be someone we could groom to take over in 2-3 seasons, should Wilson not be around at that point.  At worse, Hembree could be a shutdown set-up guy, which can be almost equally valuable sometimes.  
6. Rafael Rodriguez:  He is on this list because he's a true 5-tool talent.  As much as people want to complain about his 2010 season, that was his 17 YO season, and it would be too much to expect him to dominate out of the chute, especially since he's playing against much older guys, most 2-4 years older than he is (and more experienced).  Yet, his strikeout rate is not that high, around 19%, which means a contact rate of 81% when you ideally want to see the batter at 85% or above.  That should come with time and experience.  His power too.  Meanwhile, he's learning the nuances of fielding and with his strong arm and his speed, he probably could play any of the OF positions when he reaches the majors.  He's expected to make his full season debut in 2011 in low-A Augusta.

Now I can see people scratching their head about the last two.  Again, I lean towards potential and not closeness to the majors.  If the majors were valued more in this ranking a lot of other players would have been in the mix, for as noted, the Giants have been doing well in stocking the farm with players with potential in recent drafts and they are rising up close to the majors soon.  They will be my honorary mentions, basically in order.

Honorary Mentions

• Nick Noonan:  He didn't break out like I thought he would last season, but he was hampered by recurring hamstring problems.  Also, they redid his batting mechanics, using the same video system they used to redo Belt's and the results were very positive:  he started driving the ball and generating better bat speed.  The Giants are talking about moving him back to SS, and if he can field decently there, his offense would carry the day. I think he's someone to keep a close eye on, as well as Brown, they could be pushing on the majors by season end, even if he ends up back at 2B, I think he's on the verge of putting it together as a batter.  Probably repeats AA, but could join bottleneck in AAA by season's end, on merit.
• Ehire Adrianza:  In the past decade, he probably would have made the list, but the team's system is deepening, as I noted.  He reportedly could field SS in the majors now but his offense is what he needs to improve on.  Still, people need to remember, he was only 20 YO last season in a league of 22-24 YO pitchers, and yet he still held his own with the bat, 20% strikeouts/80% contact rate: remember, San Jose's background ups strikeout rate for hitters.  And he gets a good amount of walks too and flashes the speed to use them to steal bases.  He's probably going to repeat in SJ, particularly if Noonan is at SS in AA.
• Brandon Crawford:  Also with major league ready defense at SS, like Ehire, he just strikes out way too much.  Breaking his hand didn't help either.  Maybe he'll try out the new video system and take a leap, like Belt and Noonan.  Should be SS in AAA for 2011.  
• Tommy Joseph:  Probably best power-hitting prospect and he did not disappoint, 16 HR in 436 AB as 18 YO in low-A Augusta, but struck out a lot too with few walks.  C but a lot to learn and scouts felt 1B was his eventual position. 
• Thomas Neal:  The projection systems love him, think he can be solid regular starting OF this season in majors.  He took slight step back in 2010, but I blame EL for sapping his power, which was his plus tool, much like how Ishikawa suffered there (and Crawford, for that matter).  I think he'll be better in AAA playing LF, where he'll probably be in 2011.  
• Eric Surkamp:  He's healthy and looking to continue where he left off:  leading Giants minor leaguers in strikeouts again.  Got to love anyone with more than 1 K per inning and K/BB of almost 5, but since he's doing it as a polished pitcher, and not via one or two great knockout/strikeout pitch, he'll have to prove it at every level, like Pucetas.  I would expect him to start in AA and to move fast to AAA, he could be our 6th starter alternative by then if he continues to dominate like this.  
• Charlie Culberson:  Breakout season, finally (and remember, only 21 YO in 2010), continued doing well in AFL.  Now he has to repeat, probably plays 2B in AA, but very exciting burst of power, would be great to have at 2B (or maybe even 3B, where he played in 2009).
• Chuckie Jones:  Had great start to pro career with an offensive explosion but 61 strikeouts in 165 AB is a huge question mark.  Still, hit very well as 17 YO in AZL, 2-4 years younger and less experienced, so I would cut him huge slack on the strikeouts for now.  Huge power potential, idolized Pujols growing up, grew up in area, St. Louis was ready to draft in next round.  That's why better for teams to overdraft players they like than risk losing to another team.
• Jarrett Parker:  5 tool potential put him high on some Giants prospect lists.  Nice package overall, still have to see more, as he had a down season in college in 2010.

There are many other prospects who I would normally at least produce a blurb on, but I've been busy lately and don't have time. DrB has a very good list at his site, and just continue reading all the stuff he followed that up with, lots of great info there.

As I noted before, the sad fact about prospects is that the vast majority will fail to become a major leaguer at any point, and an even smaller percentage ever become the starters we all love and follow.   That's part of the reason I keep my list to 6, it is just so hard to make the majors as a starter that the Top 6 typically are those who make it.  Still, part of the fun of prospect hounding is when prospects like Jonathan Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, rise up the system fast and make the majors.  Unfortunately, there is no way to know who will make that rise, you have to monitor and observe and hope for the best.

Sad Story of Angel:  Continued

Unfortunately, sometimes real life intrudes on our revelry.  Angel Villalona, who probably would have made the list somewhere this season, if not for his murder charge, is still being prosecuted for the murder that he was accused of doing.  His visa has been revoked and I believe he was able to post bail and stay out of jail, living with his family, while the preparations for the trial continues.

Until there is a gun with his fingerprints on it, I don't see how he will get convicted, as there are as many people saying he shot the fatal shot as there are people who swear to his innocence because he was near them when the firing happened.  Too many people on both sides for the truth to be exposed in the courtroom.

The odd thing is that if he is able to be found not guilty, assuming the trial is over sometime this year, he'll still be only 21 YO for next season and probably would be OK in San Jose, eventually, once he goes through instructional league to get back into baseball shape.  However, given how fat he got previously as a pro, I would fear that he has gain a tremendous amount of weight while sitting around in jail and now at home.

2011 Giants Prospects Ranked by MLB Bonus Baby

One site I check regularly, and especially so leading up to the draft is MLB Bonus Baby.  The author recently  released his database of 2011 prospect ratings and I, as I am wont to do, did some analysis of the Giants prospects.

First off, I've never seen such an extended list of Giants prospects ever.  Impressive.

Top 2011 Giants Prospects

But first, he listed his Top 2000 (!!!) prospects for 2011, which I presume resulted from the database above, and the following Giants were the top (with their overall rank; see here for Top 50 2011 Giants prospects):

1. Brandon Belt (63)
2. Zach Wheeler (99)
3. Thomas Neal (125)
4. Tommy Joseph (179)
5. Francisco Peguero (222)
6. Rafael Rodriguez (224)
7. Gary Brown (229)
8. Charlie Culberson (233)
9. Conor Gillaspie (282)
10. Michael Main (314)
11. Nick Noonan (330)
12. Ehire Adrianza (460)
13. Eric Surkamp (476)
14. Jarrett Parker (535)
15. Dan Burkart (547)
16. Brandon Crawford (579)

Not that I endorse this methodology - which he did not release or explain beyond the very short description at his site - but I had previously found that the site has a lot of good information regarding players drafted and I think it is interesting to examine these lists, to see where it confirms our general impressions and where it converges.  Though I must note that ownership/authorship of the blog has changed since last summer, with this new guy taking over in December:  presumably SB Nation found a good replacement, and judging from comments on the announcement, it seems he's been doing this sort of stuff for a while and people are happy about the changeover.

First off, Belt is rated much lower than most services, which have him among the top 20-40 prospects in the majors.  But not all are believers in his bat, which I have interpreted as their taking into assessment how he hit in college and/or that they don't think he projects to hit that many homers, more of a gap-to-gap hitter.  I think these concerns are overblown, based on how well he hit (and his relative youth) in 2010. 

Wheeler is rated by some in the top 40's but some leave him off their list, so this #99 just reflects the wide array of opinions given his shortened season.  Pitcher who can throw in the mid-to-high 90's regularly, strikeout a lot of batters, AND get a lot of groundballs are golden, not sure why people are so scared of putting him higher.  I think a comp with King Feliz would be a good match, in terms of potential, but of those traits would give him a great advantage over MLB hitters: having all three is just killer.

There were more surprises among these.  Rodriguez, Main, Noonan are rated relatively highly in his system, while Brown, Adrianza, and Crawford are rated relatively lowly.  Interesting names that pop out include Gillaspie, Main, Noonan, Surkamp and especially Burhart.

Giants Prospects Ranked by Total

One stat he provides is Total, a number from 20-80 (mostly) based on a variety of stats including age to define a player's performance compared to players at his level.  Here are the top 15 (with their total):

1. Edwin Escobar 73 LH-SP
2. Ehire Adrianza 73 SS
3. Charlie Culberson 72 2B
4. Thomas Neal 71 LF
5. Conor Gillaspie 70 3B
6. Francisco Peguero 70 OF
7. Jorge Bucardo 69 SP
8. Kendry Flores 69 SP
9. Brandon Belt 67 1B/LF
10. Lorenzo Medoza 66 SP
11. Nick Liles 66 2B
12. Nick Noonan 66 2B
13. Hector Sanchez 65 C
14. Ydwin Villegas 65 SS
15. Eric Surkamp 64 SP
16. Jacob Dunnington 64 RP
17. Marvin Barrios 64 RP

This attempts to rate how good a player appears to be in 2010, it seems, and it mostly captures what I think most would say were the most successful Giants prospects of 2010.

What I do like about the list is that it also captures names we don't regularly see among the Giants top prospects, like Edwin Escobar, Jorge Bucardo, Kendry Flores, Lorenzo Mendoza (first time I've heard of him), Nick Niles, Ydwin Villegas, Jacob Dunnington, and Marvin Barrios (another first timer).

Players who did not have a Talent value include Chris Dominguez, Gary Brown, Heath Hembree, Jarrett Parker, Matt Graham, Tommy Joseph, and Zach Wheeler.  Not sure why, but clearly he ranked them somehow as many made his Top 2000 list.  I would guess he used some combo of the three chances columns that he had.

I guess one thing I like of his system is that he takes age into account.  Noonan by most measures did not perform well and he fell on most lists, if not fell off the list, of Giants prospects.  However, he's was only 21 playing in AA where most players are a couple of years older or more, and people forget about that.

Top Ceiling Giants Players

Here are the top Giants ceilings, down to starter/solid regular for position players (10: all-time great; 9: superstar; 8: occassional all-star; 7.6 above average starter; 7.3 slightly above average starter; 7: starter-solid regular) and down to #5 starter/set-up (10: all-time great; 9: ace or top closer; 8: #1/#2 or closer; 7.6: #3 starter or setup; 7.3: #4 starter or setup; 7: #5 starter or setup) or 7 and above:

1. Zach Wheeler 9.5
2. Rafael Rodriguez 8.5
3. Brandon Belt 8 (ties settled by highest floor)
4. Michael Main 8
5. Tommy Joseph 8 (floor ties settled by highest chance to majors - talent)
6. Gary Brown 8
7. Francisco Peguero 8
8. Jarrett Parker 8
9. Heath Hembree 8
10. Thomas Neal 7.6
11. Matt Graham 7.6
12. Henry Sosa 7.6
13. Hector Correa 7.6
14. Charlie Culberson 7.5
15. Conor Gillaspie 7.3
16. Nick Noonan 7.3
17. Brandon Crawford 7.3
18. Roger Kieschnick 7.3
19. Mike Kickham 7.3
20. Wilbur Bucardo 7.3

The following were rated a 7:  Ehire Adrianza; Eric Surkamp; Marvin Barrios; Jason Stoffel; Brett Pill; Aaron King; Charles Jones; Clayton Tanner; Wendell Fairley; Stephen Harrold; Daniel Burkart; Austin Fleet; Chris Dominguez; Reinier Roibal (no particular order).

Remember, just ceiling, and most have wide spaces between floor and ceiling, and all the floors are at best replacement level players.  Still, good to see who might be pretty good if things work out and who is not really that good overall, at least in terms of potential for being a star.  It helps us to keep some perspective on how good any one particular prospect is or isn't.  And who maybe we should keep an eye out for. 

Top Giants Chance to Majors - Talent

He also calculated each prospects chances for the majors based on a number of different factors.  Need to remember that making the majors is not the same as doing well there, hence why I chose to focus on the chance to majors based on talent, as those, to me, are the most likeliest to be the star players we root for on the team.

1. Zach Wheeler 87.9%
2. Brandon Belt 87.0%
3. Thomas Neal 86.7%
4. Tommy Joseph 85.1%
5. Rafael Rodriguez 83.3%
6. Charlie Culberson 82.5%
7. Gary Brown 80.9%
8. Francisco Peguero 80.5%
9. Conor Gillaspie 80.3%
10. Michael Main 79.0%
11. Nick Noonan 76.7%
12. Ehire Adrianza 74.01%
13. Eric Surkamp 72.9%
14. Jarrett Parker 72.5%
15. Brandon Crawford 69.4%

These are still a bit tainted by those who might make the majors but not star in it, but still a pretty good list.  Again, Rafael Rodriguez, Michael Main and Nick Noonan are surprises on the upside, but most are surprises to the downside.

Your 2010 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2010 is different again, just like 2009, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 3 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the final three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

2010 Big 6 Giants Prospect

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2010:

1. Buster Posey: Just showed everything he was expected to be (unfortunately on the defensive side) plus more power than expected. He looks on track to be our catcher from 2011-2016 and hopefully with some more development, he will be ready to be one of our best hitters in our lineup, maybe hitting 3rd and Sandoval cleanup.
2. Madison Bumgarner: Disappointing season only because his velocity went down. Still, despite that, he was still able to strike out major league hitters at a high rate for us in September. I think even if he don't recover his velocity, he can become an ace-quality starter for us. If he does get the velocity, Lincecum and him would pair off as one of the best righty-lefty combo the majors have seen in my lifetime, harking back to the D-gers Koufax-Drysdale combo.
3. Zach Wheeler: Always hard to say with someone who has not thrown an officially recorded professional pitch yet, but all the reports I've seen on him plus rankings, make me comfortable in saying he's third. He's a high schooler who can already reach mid-90's easily and already shows three plus pitches at times: fastball, breaking ball, changeup. However, he'll be 20 YO for this season, as it appears he was held back a year and didn't graduate until he was 19. Still, he projects as a(nother!) front-line potential pitcher, and is more advanced than Bumgarner was coming out of high school.
4. Tommy Joseph: Some had Neal here but as nicely as he did in San Jose last season, that doesn't translate to a great major leaguer, at least not yet. Joseph's bat is seen by some as good enough for 1B, which is a high threshold, so he is highly regarded, particularly for his power. Add to that, he's playing at premium position, catcher, which makes his hitting that much better. However, he, like Posey, is new to catching, so he probably has a lot to learn, though at least he has a great arm. In an ideal scenario, he works his way up the Giants minors, one level at a time, starting with Augusta this season, and by the time he's ready to play in the majors, maybe he and Posey can swap off catching duties while sharing 1B, or if Panda is there by then because of his size, Posey probably could start at almost any other position (3B?) while Joseph would catch most games with Posey as backup and Sandoval as third backup.
5. Thomas Neal: Had a breakout year in San Jose after missing almost the whole 2007 season due to injury and only doing OK in 2008. He has some power and can take a walk, though he also strikes out too much still and don't have any speed, and thus range in the OF. A great year in Richmond AA this season would vault him into the Top 3, though that is partly because Posey and Bumgarner most probably will not be eligible for the list next season, Posey for sure, Bumgarner maybe.
6. Rafael Rodriguez: Like last season, this was tough to chose, but I went with RafRod. He is a 5-tool guy with plus plus power potential and plus speed and defense, and he knows how to take a walk. One book thinks that he could become a CF, which is a premium position to have both hitting and power, especially plus power. That is a tough package to beat. He did OK in rookie league, hitting .299/.392/.362/.754, with the only negative being a tick too many strikeouts and no power, but given all the walks, I think as he catches up in age and experience to others, he should be able to reduce his strikeouts, and at 6' 5" already, his power will eventually come as he fills out. Like Villalona and Noonan before, he'll be a young buck in Augusta, only 17 officially for the season (turns 18 in July), so he might again strikeout a bit, but I think he will do better than Villalona and Noonan in that regard, I just wonder if any power will show up.

Honorable Mentions

I still want to note other names, plus maybe a comment or three, because we have so many players who could become something but have obstacles of some sort:

• Dan Runzler: Looks like he can be a good closer eventually, his main problem is giving up too many walks. Our bullpen should be golden with Wilson, Affeldt, Romo, and him.
• Nick Noonan: He is the dark horse I would recommend people keep an eye out for. His main knock has been his lack of plate discipline, his one big skill when he was drafted, but he apparently was just a tick behind the pitchers until the last two months of last season, when suddenly he went from striking out 20+ times a month to keeping his BB/K ratio over the 1.0 ratio you want to see from a good hitter and his K-rate comfortably under 10%. That plus using his speed to get more stolen bases, and he should be ready to take over 2B when Sanchez's contract is over.
• Ehire Adrianza: He's already considered good enough to field SS in the majors, the main question is his bat. With no power, his ticket will be getting on base and stealing a lot of bases. He hasn't shown the SB-ability yet, but he has been good at taking walks and not striking out a lot, just a tick more than we would like to see, but he was 19 facing mostly 21-23 YO in Augusta last season. Giving his advanced understanding of the strike zone, he should continue to rise as he catches up with the pitches physically and experientially. These three could have been 6th (if not higher) easily almost any other year.
• Roger Kieschnick: Great first pro season, but he just strikes out so much that I'm worried that will be his downfall in higher levels. If he solves that, he'll be a five-tool guy who could hit in the middle of the lineup for us. Even if he doesn't, if he can continue to hit like that at every level, he'll be a great 5th or 6th hitter for us.
• Brandon Crawford: He's also considered good enough to field SS in the majors, and the Giants came out and called him the SS of the future. He was en fuego in San Jose last year but totally lost in AA after his promotion. He'll probably be there this year, and perhaps playing in a better park in Richmond will help him do better, Connecticut's Dodd Stadium could screw with a player's head, particularly one where power is a strong part of his offensive game. Still, strikes out way too much, something he must solve to make the majors.
• Waldis Joaquin: Until his TJS, he was rated a potential #2 starter, but now he's probably a setup/closer. With mid-90's heat, he definitely got the chops to be closer-worthy at some point. He walks a little too much, but strikes out a heck of a lot. He will be in the bullpen equation the next few years. He had a great spring and is battling for the final relief spot.
• Henry Sosa: He's also battling for the final relief spot with his great spring. He was a top rated prospect a couple of years ago, but injuries have held back his progress and potential. Still, he throws mid-90's heat, and did not walk that many batters the last two seasons, a good sign. A bad sign was his greatly reduced K/9 in 2009, perhaps the only thing to keep him from the majors.
• Jason Stoffel: Our steal in the 2009 draft, he did not disappoint last season, with a great fastball. A college closer, I'm not sure that he'll be able to do that in the majors, but he doesn't walk much while striking out a lot, which is good no matter what in the bullpen, and he should rise fast.
• Darren Ford: Never thought I would write about him here, because last season was his third in just Advanced A, and he's done poorly but he had a great second half of 2009 and a great spring with us. Defensively ready (an oft-repeated characterization for Giants prospects) for MLB CF, he has plus plus speed that he can utilize for SB when he is able to get on base. As he is already 24, he will have to continue hitting like that in AA Richmond Flying Squirrels to keep it going - unlikely because even while hitting well, his strikeout rate was still very high and his BABIP was very high too, though I would note that he used to have high BABIP early in his career too, it only got low in Advanced A the prior two seasons. Still a very high BABIP though, so he'll probably falter somewhere up the ladder, but if he can solve it like he did last season, he could be ready soon.
• Angel Villalona: His murder trial is now at least scheduled to be reviewed by a judge this month. His potential is still there and he's only 20 YO, so this could just be a very horrific bump in the road. It will never be known by outsiders what exactly happened, so as long as he is found not guilty or the trial is dropped, he should be able to continue his career in the U.S., though hopefully he will move his family to Californy, though not to Beverly Hills, hopefully some place like San Jose, CA, since that is probably where he should go back to if he returns back to professional baseball. Unless there is something stronger than a "he said, she said" situation - and there has been no news about finding the weapon or any connection between Angel and the weapon, other than they both were at the bar - he should be released by the judge for insufficient evidence or the trial would be relatively quick.

Prospects: Hitters vs. Pitchers

People have been complaining about the Giants prospects, but for some reason, despite winning two Cy Youngs and doing what he has done, Lincecum doesn't seem to do it enough for fans. The thing is, we have a great crop of young players on our team or soon on our team: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Wilson, Romo, Runzler, Sandoval, Posey, Schierholtz.

Look over most teams, they would be lucky to have such a good ten from their farm system and they are only on the cusp of what they can do, they probably have at least another 3-4 seasons together, assuming Neukom does as he says he would and we extend our top pitchers.

And we have other prospects who look like they could do something for us in Hinshaw, Joaquin, Sosa, Noonan (keep an eye on him in 2010), Kieschnick, Neal, Crawford, plus a number of other good prospects down lower in Peguero, RafRod, maybe Villalona, Adrianza, Sanchez.

And people note that we haven't had hitters like Will Clark and Matt Williams, though now Sandoval and Posey looks posed to match or pass up that pair, but don't seem to realize what a renaissance we are having in terms of pitching. Really, the best pitchers the Giants have had before Cain came along in the past 40 years was probably John "the Count" Montefusco, Scott Garrelts, John Burkett, and Trevor Wilson. Ron Bryant would have made the list if not for his swimming pool accident, and so would have Bob Knepper if he wasn't traded away so early. And what type of pitching staff did we have during the Clark/Williams era? It was mainly cobbled together with veterans and castoffs, yet there was no crying over how the Giants couldn't develop a starting pitcher.

And within the San Francisco Giants era, the only comparables are Juan Marichal and Mike McCormick. And as great Marichal was and good McCormick was, neither one was a strikeout artist. And as I've been noting (plus posted in my business plan link), Baseball Prospectus did a study of success in the playoffs and found that it was having pitchers who struck out a lot of batters that was a key success factor in going deeper in the playoffs.

Just think about that, then think about how it worked in the 60's, how the Giants probably had one of the best offensive teams ever plus Marichal and McCormick and others, and yet the dominant names in the playoffs of that era were Koufax and Gibson, the two premier strikeout artists of that era.

Nobody Rebuilds All At Once, Something Always Sucks

So maybe the Giants don't have a lineup yet. No team is suddenly good in their lineup, pitching, and defense. No other teams that rebuilt themselves had everything working from the get-go, they fixed up one thing at a time, each season. If you think so, find me examples, if this is true, it should be easy to find, they should not be hard to find nor should they be rare occurrences. People don't appreciate how hard it is to rebuild a baseball team nor do they understand the process that a team undergoes.

So the Giants lineup sucks. Other team's pitching sucks. And yet others, defense. Rebuilding teams always have things that suck. The successful ones add on pieces each year and make the playoffs eventually. Prospects don't all blossom all at once, they take time and not all take the same time. Lincecum took less than a couple of months to figure it all out. Sanchez took a number of years (so did Koufax and Randy Johnson, FYI).

And the way to rebuild, assuming that your goal is to go deep in the playoffs and that you believe the study results of Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times, two of the most respected baseball research resources around, is to build up your pitching staff and build a good defense. BP specifically found that a fire-balling pitching staff, a great closer, and great defense are key elements to have on your team if you want to maximize your chances in the playoffs of going deep.

Business Core Competencies

It is like any other business. You focus on the core competencies that are necessary for success in your business. According to BP and THT, it is your pitching staff and your defense. BP's guidelines is that you need a high strikeout pitching staff, both starters and relievers, you need an effective closer, and you need a good defense. And that is what the Giants have mostly focused on with their drafts, pitching and defense.

And they did not always hewed to this philosophy in the draft, but that is OK, you always have to pick the best player available when drafting. But where it is close, with the low odds of actually finding a good player anyway in the draft, the Giants have mostly focused on getting pitchers and on players who can play good defense, plus have some speed. And they have a nice collection of high-speed arms in their system, Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson, Joaquin, Hinshaw, Sosa, Wheeler.

So now they, and specifically Sabean, have built up the team with strong strikeout pitchers and a good closer, and now are adding on the position players who can help the team win, whether internally or via free agency, mostly. What is wrong with that? The Giants teams that won over the past 20 years were built with players who were not that good and were not raised in our farm system, yet they were no less beloved.

The Clark-Williams era pitching rotation were filled with pitchers who were not developed within our farm system. Garrelts and Grant were the only ones to really contribute anything, but they were not main cogs, the main guys were pitchers we traded for at some point. And in the early Sabean years of few games without the pennant on the line, only Ortiz was developed within. Why is it OK that those teams developed few pitchers, but did develop good hitters, but not OK for today's Giants to develop a lot of good pitchers but did not yet develop good hitters, though Sandoval looks pretty good and Posey looks to be good eventually?

2010 Giants Prospect of Note: Thomas Neal

I normally do a Big 6 listing around the start of the season of our top prospects, but there is one guy who I think Giants fans need to hear more about, so I'm covering him now: Thomas Neal. The top prospects most Giants fans know, and probably some of the more in-tune fans are aware of Neal, so I'm doing this for the more casual Giants fans who rely on bloggers to bring guys like these to your attention.

As regular readers from past seasons know, I love the book Minor League Baseball Analyst and get it every year. They rate Neal the Giants 7th best prospect and see him becoming a starting LF if he can continue to develop, which is not a great ranking, showing a lot of doubt about either his potential or likelihood of amounting to anything in the majors. His main skill is his plus power, though he is OK with the average and with defense. They note that he possesses excellent bat speed and power, showing improved power and plate discipline, walking a lot while keeping his strikeouts OK.

Now, fans will look at his 22 HR and 90 RBI and think that is something good, but there are many players who do that in Advanced A and never do anything in the majors. Those are not the key stats to be aware of. Data that you should be are that he walks over 50% of the time he strikes outs, which is good, though he still needs to cut out some strikeouts.

But one thing I like to account for is age and relative accomplishments because that sets a standard that anyone can understand. If other ballplayers his age in that league can perform that well, that gives a standard of how good his skills are for the league he is in and you can see how others like him eventually did in advancing up the minors and maybe making the majors.

Neal in the California League

He was in the California League with San Jose in 2009. The average age for hitters was 22.8 YO and for pitchers was 23.0 YO. Thomas Neal was officially 21 years old for his league in 2009, so the pitchers have 2 more years of experience on him plus he missed the 2007 season with injuries, so that is more like 3 years, which makes his accomplishments that much more significant.

In 2009, the average batting line was .270/.341/.417/.758. Neal hit .337/.431/.579/1.010, 4th best in the league, which is already good in an overall context, but out of hitters younger than the average age, he was second in the league to Koby Clemens, who was 22, who hit .345/.419/.636/1.055. Of note, he hit better than Buster Posey in the league, and he hit the best of hitters 21 and younger, though just beating out Alex Liddi, who was 20. The next one that old is Tyson Gillies, 20, 19th best OPS with .916 OPS.

OK, "so what" about all that? Well, if we look at similar leaders in seasons past, we can see the players who have made it up to the majors with that type of accomplishment from the California League.

• In 2008, the leader of hitters 21 and younger was Pablo Sandoval, 21, who hit .359/.412/.597/1.009 with 12 HR, and BOS Josh Reddick, 21, was close. Others include the A's Sean Doolittle and Chris Carter, then Lars Anderson, all hitters considered much better prospects than Neal in previous seasons, but he hit better than they did.
• In 2007, the leader was SD's Kyle Blanks, 20, followed closely by Texas's Chris Davis. Blanks "only" hit .301/.380/.540/.920 with 24 HR.
• In 2006, the leader was TB's Reid Brignac who hit .326/.382/.557/.939 with 21 HR, LAA's Sean Rodriguez was 2nd and COL (ARI back then) Carlos Gonzalez hit .300/.356/.563/.919. And, for context, the league average was not all that different: .275/.350/.414/.763.
• In 2005, the leader was LAA's Howie Kendrick, 21, who hit .384/.421/.638/1.059 with 12 HR. There were a lot of good hitters that year, KC's Billy Butler, 19, was a close second, tied with LAA's Brandon Wood, and just ahead of ARI's Miguel Montero

Showing how a high OPS in the low minors don't always mean much, in 2005, our prospect, Eddy Martinez-Esteve, 21, considered one of the better pure hitters in the minors back then, hit .313/.427/.524/.951 with 17 HR. That was only good for 13th overall in the league and 5th among those 21 and younger. It don't have to go down far for the numbers to still look good but not necessary mean anything about them making the majors. 13th in 2006 was Luke Appert; 5th was Casey Craig. 13th in 2007 was Kyle Blanks; 5th was Travis Denker, but that was a very poor year for 21 and younger to hit well in the league, Denker only had a .300/.378/.455/.833 batting line. 13th in 2008 was Yamaico Navarro; 5th was Lars Anderson, who was just ahead of Navarro, lots of young guys among the leaders that year.

As now you hopefully see, though Neal was not a highly considered prospect going into the 2009 season, his accomplishment at his age for that league is similar to or better than those for prospects whose prospect star were very high, like Kendrick, Brignac, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Blanks, Davis, Doolittle, Carter, Anderson, and similar to someone near and dear to our hearts, Pablo Sandoval. Of course, not all of them have panned out yet, Brignac is still finding his way, Davis got to the majors then lost his way, but Gonzalez and Blanks are battling for starting positions and Kendrick is still projected to be a league batting champion some day.

A key difference, however, about Neal is that while he walks a fair bit, he also strikes out too much, something that Pablo never did in the minors, he was good at avoiding the strikeouts, which is a sign of a good hitter. But Neal is not all that bad overall, about 80% contact rate (or 20% strikeout rate) and thus we should keep a close eye on him as he progresses up the farm system.

One good sign, though, is that his road strikeout rate in 2009 was in the good area, roughly the 85% contact rate or 15% strikeout rate that we want to see out of hitters (he was at 84%). And just as importantly, he walked more times than he struck out.

Why that is important to note is because San Jose's home park, Municipal Stadium, was shown by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo to be a pitcher's park with environs that causes batters to strike out a lot more. Hitters are handicapped there, and in an interview for that article, John Bowker noted that the background there is horrible for hitters. Also, if you check out Baseball Prospectus's park factors table, San Jose is one of the most extreme pitchers parks around, so even though the California League is considered a hitter's league, San Jose hitters are severely handicapped by playing half their games there, and thus anytime younger players are able to hit well enough there to rank among the Top 3 in the league is a significant accomplishment.

Still, I don't know how much to factor that into the equation, so I only note this as a positive sign going forward that Neal will continue on his upward track in 2010 when he goes to the Richmond Flying Squirrels and their historically neutral ballpark. I am hoping that the Giants can work out a long-term affiliation with Richmond because their park is so neutral, but their new owners who moved the team out of Norwich, Connecticut, is seriously rumored to be wanting to be a Washington Nationals affiliate, and would be willing to go down a level or two, to A-ball, in order to secure that. I have not heard any hard news either way on how that is going other than the usual "we're happy to be working them" corp-speak that both sides have been spouting.

Neal is a Prospect of Note

Overall, Neal had a really nice year, but in the context of how other's with his age and relative experience did, it was clearly a great season for any ballplayer who hit that well in that league and a good sign of his talent level. He is another bat to look forward to coming up the farm system, and with some excitement as he is clearly a power bat and looking ready to contribute in 1-2 seasons.

Baseball America is similarly impressed, including him on their Top 100 list, just released, though just barely, he was 96th (Wheeler was 49th, Bumgarner 14th, and Posey 7th; wow, if he were 98th, all the prospects would have been multiples of 7 :^). They actually rated his hitting as his best tool, rated a 60 (out of 80), not power. Still, in his profile from last year's book, they note that his power grades out better in the Giants system than anyone except Villalona, who was projected to be a 30-40 HR hitter. (though with Tommy Joseph drafted after the book's publication, he could now be third in the system, behind Villalona and Joseph).

They also noted that his power was to the opposite field or CF prior to 2009, and that once he learns to pull the ball consistently, his HR numbers could explode. According to his spray chart on minor league splits (unfortunately, you have to enter his name and click on the spray chart), almost all of his homers were to left or center, so it appears that he learned that technique in 2009. In fact, most of his outs were when he hit them to the opposite field. When he can loft the ball and pull it, he had hits more often than not, it was when he was late on balls that he hit catchable flies to CF and RF.

He played mainly LF in 2009 but has played 1B and RF in previous years. He has been OK overall, but pretty good last season, though that was a home anomaly, his play in the OF in 2010 will give more info on how good he really is. Given that Villalona, should he even be able to return, would probably return to San Jose for more seasoning anyway due to both his injury and his murder trial screwing up his off-season conditioning, Neal could find himself playing 1B a lot for Richmond (Villalona not getting the promotion and Brett Pill probably moving to Fresno for 2010), so that he would be prepared to play either LF or 1B if he makes it up to the majors.

If he has another great season in AA, the Giants could move him up to the majors if anyone is struggling to be productive (like they did with Sandoval), almost anywhere on the field, as he could play LF while DeRosa could play a lot of different positions and take over for someone struggling there, including possibly SS, as he came up as a SS and says he can still be OK there (I would have to see it to believe it, but that is what he said). As a right-handed batter, his power would not be affected as much by AT&T, but there will be some effect. Still, good balance to all the lefty power hitters we have in Ishikawa, Schierholtz, and Bowker, plus Lewis if he ever learns to hit for the power he says he has.

Giants Prospects in Mayo's Top 50

Jonathan Mayo, the MLB's Minors expert, released his Top 50 prospect list for 2010 recently. I like to see what he is thinking because he was the one who turned me on to Tim Lincecum in the draft and got me to believe that he would fall to us in the draft (but nobody's perfect, he thought we would pick some strong-armed big body, Daniel Bard I think; but if I recall right, he nailed the first 8-10 picks in the 2009 draft though). He has Buster Posey as the 4th prospect and Madison Bumgarner as the 10th (which is a drop for MadBum, I think, from last year, but Posey rose from the high teens).

In the article I linked to, he did a team comparison showing how many of the Top 50 prospects that each team had. The Giants were tied with a bunch of teams with 2 of the Top 50 prospects. Texas, Tampa Bay, and Kansas City led with 4 prospects each.

But I was bothered by that comparison because we have 2 of the Top 10 prospects on the list, and only Texas beat us to being the first team to achieve that, and they are the only two teams to achieve that. So I tried a weighted scoring methodology so that a team that has a higher ranked prospect would get more credit for it, instead of just a simple count because that credits a team for a 50th prospect as much as a team with the 1st prospect. I gave the #1 prospect, Jason Heyward (wow, not Stephan Strasburg, though he was 2nd) 50 points, then one less point (49) for the 2nd, and so on until the 50th got 1 point.

Using that scoring system, here is the ranking by team:

1. Tampa Bay 141
2. Texas 131
3. San Francisco 88
4. Florida 74
5. Toronto 69
6. Atlanta 67
7. Milwaukee 64
8. Washington 60
9. Kansas City 55
10. Boston 53

So, using the article's comparison, the Giants come in tied for 5th with 12 other teams and thus look like just like any other team(plus with 50 slots and 30 teams, there is an average of 1.67 prospects per team). However, using my methodology, which weighs each prospect, the Giants come in a clear third place, far behind the leaders Tampa Bay and Texas but as far ahead of the 4th place team, Florida, as Florida is from the 8th place team Washington.

I think the Giants should still be on the higher side in 2011, close to 10th at least. Posey is probably going to be in the minors long enough that he should not lose his rookie status in 2010 and thus be eligible for ROY in 2011, now that Molina is around. Thus the Giants should have him ranked highly again, and he could move up a spot or two.

I'm not sure about Bumgarner, as it is still unclear to me whether the Giants are serious about starting him or looking for a 5th starter. Obviously, if he's still in the minors, he'll probably stay there a good portion of the season, particularly to avoid Super-2 status, and would still be a rookie for 2011. But obviously, if he starts in the majors, 2010 would be his rookie season and he would not be in the ranking next year.

And, at the moment, there is nobody who clearly will make the Top 50 in 2011 to take Bumgarner's place. Angel Villalona has the best set of skills and performance for making the list, in that he had the cred previously and could regain that cred with a good season in 2011. However, with no visa to even enter the U.S. because of his legal difficulties at home due to the shooting death that involved him, he'll be lucky to play in 2011, let alone bring things up a notch. Thomas Neal had a great 2009 but will have to raise things a notch again in AA in 2010 to have any hope of making the Top 50. Brandon Crawford could improve his chances by hitting in AA like he did in San Jose in 2009, but he too would need to raise things a notch. Roger Kieschnick could also put his name into play by greatly reducing his strikeouts and doing very well in AA, but like the others, unlikely to do enough to reach the Top 50.

The best chance would be if Zach Wheeler busts out of the gates like Bumgarner did in his full pro season. Wheeler could reach the Top prospect ranks if he can pitch like Bumgarner did. But not every young pitcher is going to do well in the minors, no matter how good they looked as an amateur, particularly high school pitchers. Hopefully your scouts did their job, but until he pitches for real, all we have is a hope that his skills will translate into the pro ranks.

I expect Wheeler to start out in Augusta, much like Bumgarner, both because of his strong skill set as well as its closeness to his hometown, which should help with his adjustment to the pro ranks, lessening homesickness, as well as having family and friends being able to make his games.

So it does not look probable that the Giants will keep their top spot, but there are some possibilities, mainly Bumgarner spending the year in the minors and Wheeler dominating in A-ball, that suggest that the Giants could stay up there, and perhaps could go up a spot or two, depending on how many of the other teams' prospects graduate in 2010.

Accolades Continue: Buster Posey Wins Spinks Award

According to news from sfgiants.com, Buster Posey was named the winner of the 50th annual J.G. Taylor Spink Award as the Topps/Minor League Player of the Year for 2009. The article noted all of Posey's accomplishments this season. Showing how the award selection might not be the most rigorous of processes, last year's winner was Matt Gamel, Brewer's infielder - he's good, but was he the top minor leaguer last season? I would rather doubt that.

Still this is just the latest in a long line of awards and recognition. Before we signed him (but after we drafted him), he won the Golden Spike award. He then was a Hawaii Winter Baseball Post-Season All-Star last season. This season, he was a California League mid-season All-Star, and he recently was named the top prospect in both the California League and the Pacific Coast League by Baseball America.

The article also noted that Posey "reached base in his first eight starts with Scottsdale in the Arizona Fall League this month." I could have sworn that the reports were that the Giants did not send him to the AFL. OK, it was in this post in Baseball America's Prospect Blog. There they list three pitchers—lefty Steve Edlefsen and righties Dan Turpen and Joe Martinez - and SS Brandon Crawford and OF Thomas Neal. No Posey.

However, a previous report (that I wrote on here) had Posey going to the AFL so I thought the Giants had changed their minds on him going since the BA account did not list him, particularly since they took Runzler off the roster and added Turpen. Clearly, the BA account failed to note that he was going as well.

Well, while he might have reached base in his first eight starts with Scottsdale, after 9 games, he is only hitting .194/.295/.250/.545 in 36 AB, 2 doubles but no homers, 5 walks, 11 strikeouts (it does not include his 1 for 3 with a walk today). Either Posey is really rusty or he's just being outmatched. .280 BABIP suggests that while he is having a little bad luck, he's not having a lot of it. Since he was hitting the ball with authority in AAA while he was there and the AFL is a hybrid AA/AAA equivalent league, I would think that he's just having some problems right now that he will eventually get out of at some point. He's also been shaky defensively as well, having committed 3 errors already.

The good news it that in his past 5 games (out of 10 so far) he is 4 for 17, with 5 walks and 4 strikeouts, and he had two doubles. That means he had both of his doubles and 5 of his 6 walks in his last 5 games, plus he is finally showing the type of discipline he normally exhibits. He is hitting .235/.409/.353/.762 in those 5 games (assuming no HBP or sacrifices of any kind), which shows that he was out of sorts initially and is starting to adjust after being out of it for basically 5 games or so.

Based on some Posey info that I wrote about a while ago, Posey sounds like he should be our starting catcher sometimes next season, if not to begin the season. A mid-season listing of prospects (that I missed) had Posey 5th on July 31st (he was 19th in the pre-season list; Bumgarner was 2nd after being 6th previously and Villalona was 50th falling a bit after being 48th previously). Hopefully the Giants do not decide to go after more of a catcher in the off-season, or even re-sign Bengie Molina. Posey's era should begin next season, sometime mid-season at worse, following Weiters script for his career, or better, he should be the starter from the get-go.

I suspect that the Giants will keep him in AAA to June so as to get one more season of control over him (as I have read some said they might), particularly since the Giants are just starting their upward climb back to respectability. We should be around our peak in terms of competitiveness around the time Posey is mid-way through our control of him, when Lincecum and Cain should be hitting their physical peaks, and Bumgarner should be established by then, if his velocity returns and they are all able to stay healthy.

That would hopefully mean that we would get a rental catcher, much like what the Orioles did last season when they signed Zaun to a one year plus option contract, then traded him away mid-season to Tampa Bay after Weiters came up.

Giants AFL Players Announced

Got the news from Baseball America. Here are the players, with one huge surprise:

• Steve Edlefsen, RHP: been on the prospect radar since he started out nicely with the Giants.
• Joe Martinez, RHP: gives him more experience with top level competition in preparation for next season since he missed all of this season, for the most part.
• Daniel Runzler, LHP: the huge surprise. Never heard of him until today when I was reading Andy Baggerly's blog, but he has risen from Augusta to Norwich this season, 24 years old, 0.80 ERA overall, reliever with 17 saves, 56.0 IP, only 21 hits !!!, 24 walks, and 80 strikeouts. Not too shabby!
• Buster Posey, C: needs no introduction. The recent announcement by Sabean that Posey would not be coming up in September, partly because he could be playing on Team USA overseas, implied to Baggerly that Posey is not ready to take over the starting job next season. If so, if the Giants want Molina back, he wants a two-year contract and hopes to get one. The article also notes that he also knows the Giants don't want to block Posey, but he doesn't believe the two choices are mutually exclusive, which implies that he would be ready to be Posey's backup buddy at some point during those two years, probably ideally he starts in 2010 while Posey spends a year in AAA, then if Posey is ready, he comes up in September and they split the games, then Posey starts in 2011 with Molina backing up plus getting regular starts if Posey needs to sit. That could work for me if the money is not too bad, but I expect him to want full price and that I don't want. Since the comment in the article linked about him auditioning for himself, he has a 4 game hitting streak, batting .294/.368/.412/.780 but only 1 RBI and 2 runs scored and 4 strikeouts in 17 AB.
• Brandon Crawford, SS: he had a great start to his pro career, then he got sent to that hell-hole of a stadium, Dodd Stadium, to play for the Connecticut Defenders. He suffered there. This situation should give us a better idea of where he is developmentally, the hot hitter he was in San Jose, or the lousy hitter he was in Norwich.
• Thomas Neal, OF: a mild surprise, though not too much since he hit very well there. He has hit .331/.422/.582/1.004 in San Jose this season, 20 HR in 428 AB, 80 RBI, but 91 strikeouts, though plus 55 walks. He outdid Kieschnick, who hit 23 HR in 471 AB, 101 RBI, but 118 strikeouts and 34 walks, .301/.351/.546/.897.