Your 2025 Giants: Buster's Blockbuster Trade for Devers

As announced by the Giants, they have traded for Boston's Rafael Devers, acquiring him in a package headlined by once and future ace, SP Kyle Harrison, SP/RP Jordan Hicks, and prospects OF James Tibbs III and reliever Jose Bello.

Devers (only 28 YO) is in the second season of a ten-year, $313.5M contract, covering him up to age 36 YO season, and there is about $250M left on it.  He hit .272 with 15 HR and 58 RBI in 73 games for the Red Sox this season and has been a great hitter (.859 OPS) for his career with the Red Sox (8.5 seasons).  

Your 2024 Giants: Trade for Ronnie Ray

The Giants traded for former Cy Young winner LHP Ronnie Ray, getting him from the Mariners for Mitch Haniger, DeSclafani, and cash considerations, which makes the deal net zero dollar trade.  Ray is rehabbing from TJS, and is expected to return in July 2024, plus whatever rehab time he needs.  Ray has a player option after the 2024 season, where he can opt into a two year @ $25M per season deal, or make himself a free agent.

Your 2016 Giants: Trade Deadline Deals: Goodbye Duffman!

(Apologies for the delay, been battling headache every afternoon since last week; I wrote most of this before it was announced that Peavy was moved to the bullpen, and finished up the Moore trade discussion today)

Wow, go on a short break and things just fall apart:  the Giants have been stumbling greatly since the ASB.  I was going to write on the decline of both Cueto and Samardzija as the season progressed, but given the trades made, to address this great decline overall for the team, I felt that took precedence.

The trades made:

• Eduardo Nunez, utility infielder for the Twins, was acquired for LHP Aldaberto Mejia
• Will Smith, LHP reliever for the Brewers, was acquired for RHP Phil Bickford and C Andrew Susac
• Matt Moore, LHP starter for the Rays, was acquired for 3B Matt Duffy (Duffman!), SS Lucius Fox (Batman!), and RHP Michael Santos 

The Giants control Nunez until 2017 (will probably sign him to a 2-3 year deal after the season, I would bet, something like the one Blanco signed before), and Smith and Moore to 2019.  Even better, Moore is signed to an extension deal giving the Giants team options of $7M, $9M, and $10M, so he's a relatively cheap SP option for us, and rounds out our rotation.

Your 2015 Giants: Trade for Mike Leake

Breaking news:  the Giants have traded for SP Mike Leake from the Reds, a player who they have coveted for a long time.  Extra Baggs has an account:

Baggs:

Leake, 27, was 9-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 21 starts for the Reds – numbers that the Giants did plenty to inflate when they scored nine runs against him on May 16. He is a ground ball machine whose strike-throwing ways should translate extremely well to AT&T Park. He’s also a perennial Gold Glove candidate and his hitting prowess will give even Madison Bumgarner a run for his money. 

The Giants have long coveted Leake, going back to when the San Diego native was the eighth overall pick in the 2009 draft out of Arizona State. Giants scout Doug Mapson, who signed Greg Maddux back when he worked for the Cubs, said he has only written a Maddux comparison once to another amateur player. It was Leake. 

Leake also knows Giants manager Bruce Bochy because he played with the manager’s son, Brett, along with Stephen Strasburg, on a travel ball team in his youth. Leake even grew up a Giants fan because of his father, whose favorite player is Willie Mays. All of this might be a factor after the season, since Leake is a free agent and the Giants planned on pursuing him over the winter even if they didn’t acquire him via trade. Now they get two months to make an attractive case while employing his services as they attempt to defend their World Series title.

The Giants traded two prospects:  corner infielder Adam Duvall and RHP Keury Mella.  It is expected to be the only deal done before the trading deadline (Morse was just DFAed by the Dodgers, so he'll be available in 10 days for free).  The Giants have not announced any other personnel moves other than that Tim Hudson will not be in the rotation now.

Your 2010 Giants are 66-50: Dirty Promises Sweep of 'Dres

What an idiotic boast Jonathan Sanchez made, about sweeping San Diego.  First, take care of your own games, he was horrible in his last start.  Maybe boast that you'll be great pitching in his next start, but really, a sweep?  Second, focus on the task on hand first, which was taking care of the Cubbies.  Third, don't make promises for your teammates.  Sure, say that you really believe in this offense and pitching staff, but to say that the Giants will win in the other two games in the series?  I hope the kangaroo court fined him big time for that asinine promise.

Game 1:  Clayton Richard vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  Richard struggled in his last start, allowing five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, his shortest start of the year. He's had a rough go in the second half, posting a 5.93 ERA in five starts. This after a 3.33 ERA in the first half of the season.

Giants:  Sanchez will be attempting to recover from a stumble in his last start, when he allowed four runs in four innings to the Braves in one of his shortest starts of the season. His control has been the primary reason for his struggles.

As I've been noting since ASB, San Diego's young starters should stop pitching well soon, particularly Richard and LeBlanc, because they aren't really as good as they appeared in April/May.  As you can see, Richard has not pitched well since and he's going to be hitting the wall in terms of IP usage soon as well.

I would say that the Giants should win this one, except that Sanchez made his stupid boast.  In the past, when there was pressure on him, he would wilt - not a bad thing per se, but a sign of youth - like pitching in home opener this season.  However, he had a great start with the pressure on and in a park that is horrible for pitchers, and he shut out Colorado just the start before.  I think that showed signs of maturity that was dashed by his stupid boast.

So I will have to call this even with a lean towards Sanchez for having much better talent overall in his career, plus this is the team he no-hit, so he seems to have their number.  Before, when under pressure, he got amped up and was wild.  But if he can calm himself down like against the Rockies, then we have a great battle at hand, and probably a win.  And even if amped up, Richard has struggled for a long while now, so it should be an even battle at worse.

Game 2:  Mat Latos vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  Latos continues to impress in his first full season. He won his 12th game of the year in his last start in Arizona, tossing six shutout frames with six strikeouts. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his past 10 starts.

Giants:  Bumgarner hasn't won since July 24 but has allowed more than three runs only once in his past nine starts. Last time out, the young left-hander allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Cubs in a no-decision.

Top prospect starting pitcher vs. top prospect pitcher, mano-a-mano.  Unfortunately, Latos has been on a great streak over the past two months, while Bumgarner struggled mightily in his last start against a poor struggling offense and really, his last two starts.  He will have to bring his A game to win against Latos.  Have to say that I would lean heavily towards Latos in this one.

Game 3:  Wade LeBlanc vs. Lincecum

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  LeBlanc wasn't exactly efficient on Tuesday against the Pirates, tossing 106 pitches in 5 2/3 innings, but he was effective. He tied his career high with eight strikeouts and allowed one run on five hits to pick up just his second win since June 18.

Giants:  Lincecum's strange season continued against the Cubs, as the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner experienced the worst first inning of his career, giving up four runs. Lincecum exited after four innings, allowing six runs on eight hits.

LeBlanc has also been doing worse lately.  4.31 ERA since late June, and generally around 4.50 for the past month or so, which is about what his talent level really is, mid-to-back rotation starter.  

Luckily he's up against Lincecum as Timmy had a horrible start in his last game.  Luckily, his peripherals looked good in that start, it appears to be just one of those bad luck games where balls just fall in for hits and you are screwed.  This is not like earlier in the season when Lincecum was struggling, as he was walking people left and right back then but only walked one in his last game, and still struck out 4.  

If Timmy was going against a stronger pitcher, I would be more worried.  Still, because he did struggle in his last game, I would have to call this game even with a strong lean towards Lincecum.

Giants Thoughts

A win is a win is a win. It don't matter if ugly wins, in history books, the Giants are now 66-50 and facing Padres this weekend. Teams battling successfully for playoffs need to win ugly games like this plus take down bad teams like Cubs, by hook or crook. Giants offense won this series, the pitching let the team down.

Now the Giants take on the 'Dres, and really, they need to sweep to make a statement, Sanchez statement or not.  If they simply win the series 2-1, which I think is very likely, they are still behind the division leader, with a tough stretch of good teams facing us (though the 'Dres will have it tough going on the road for a long 10 game stretch themselves) coming up in Phillies, Cards, Reds, then after D-backs, face on the road D-gers, D-backs, 'Dres, before home for 3 against D-gers again.  That is a very tough stretch and could decide whether the Giants are battling for a playoff spot down the stretch or not.  A sweep would be great for getting a good start to this tough stretch.

Kung Fu Panda Mojo Back?

The good news is that Burrell and Sandoval are both starting to heat up (and Rowand and Ishikawa have been hitting well for over a month, for that matter), as Torres, Huff and Posey start to cool down.  We will need  the four of them, contributing on varying levels to get into the playoffs.  Particularly with the Cards and Phillies breathing down our backs just one game back in the wild card race.

Sandoval especially, he's key for the Giants not only this season but for the future, whereas Burrell being good is good for us now, but who knows about next season?  So far, so good for Sandoval (as I covered in my previous post).  Nothing conclusive over one week's worth of games, but significant because he hasn't done this since his great month of April.  And if he's hitting well, then we have a great block of hitters up top:  Torres, Huff, Posey, Sandoval, Burrell, plus Uribe and sometimes Ishikawa (people don't like Ishi, but not very many teams have a near 800 OPS hitting batting 8th).

Teams Different Now from Mid-May SD Sweep

Big differences for the Giants and 'Dres between Mid-May Sweep and now, and back then they squeaked by us, 3-2, 5-2, 1-0:

• No Posey
• No Torres leading off
• No Burrell
• Pandoval in deep slump of early May
• Rowand slumping
• Schierholtz slumping
• Downs slumping
• No Freddy Sanchez
• Richard and LeBlanc were pitching like aces
• Ludwick and Tejada

The Giants have a much better offense now with Torres leading off, providing both OBP and ability to drive in guys who get on base ahead of him, then Huff, Posey, Burrell/Uribe in the heart of the lineup.  In addition, we got Rowand pitching in with a nice and quiet .276/.360/.423/.782 for the last two months, Ishikawa doing it on and off the bench, .312/.350/.440/.791 since the end of May, almost three months of good hitting and defense.

Plus, San Diego is not as good.  Their pitching is falling back down to earth.  Both Richard and LeBlanc are regressing to their talent level as shown by previous seasons:  mid-to-back rotation starters.  That's decent to have on a team, so nothing against them, but on a poor offensive team like the 'Dres, they aren't going to win a lot of games being average or worse. Plus, in any case, should hit IP limits soon if not already, then who are they going to start?  And Tejada hasn't been hitting, and while Ludwick has been hitting homers, he hasn't been doing much of anything else, and their offense is not built for long ball, it has been a small ball offense.  Other than A-Gon, nobody gets on base much, so they have to manufacture when someone does get on.  

Other Roster Changes

Then there are the recent trades to add Mike Fontenot and Jose Guillen to the bench.  Fontenot only gives us an average MI player, but on a bench, an average player is very valuable to have.  There is not as much of a drop off when giving Sanchez or Uribe a rest at 2B or SS.  He is basically average at 2B defensively but horrible, though in very few starts, at SS.  He was OK defensively at SS in the minors though.  Plus, since he's a lefty, we might see him in a semi-platoon with Sanchez if Freddy slumps again (he's been hitting OK since August 3rd, .250/.351/.406/.758.

There has been a lot of tweets over the Guillen trade.  Looks like we got him for PTBNL and the Royals are sending cash to us (Hank Schulman tweeted that Guillen will only cost the Giants $250K and a low-to-mid level prospect), though don't know how much yet.  Looks like he will join the team tomorrow, at which point the team would have to make a corresponding move, which right now looks like Burriss going down.  Jeff Fletcher of AOL tweeted that Bochy says that Guillen is new starting RF and Huff starts at 1B.  Which means, of course, that Ishikawa is going back to bench.

I don't think that is best because Ishikawa has been hitting better than Guillen, plus plays great D at 1B.  Also, he's hitting better than Guillen on an OPS basis for the past 4-5 seasons combined for Guillen.  The good thing is that Guillen  adds another HR power bat to our lineup, which is good because obviously our lineup is not built for speed and small-ball, it is built to win on the long ball.  

Hopefully this works, but I am smelling another Garko redux, though at least Guillen has a long history of doing some offensive damage in the majors while Garko didn't have much and still was on the decline.  I wonder who we gave up, though we do know the player is from the Giants non-keeper list.  The Giants in their press release noted Guillen's accomplishments for the A's when they got him, particularly in the playoffs.  And he did hit very well in April and June, just not so good in May and particularly July and now August.  

Clearing his mind by being on a playoff contender might just be what he needs, but I remain skeptical, though I would note that almost anyone would be depressed being on that dreary KC team.  People complain about Sabean but KC has had a number of even better draft picks than Sabean and built up a team of mainly hitting prospects, and still is not going anywhere, they are apparently aimless.

People are understandably in love with offensive players - the players I loved and followed growing up and beyond were mostly hitters, Bobby Bonds, Dave Kingman, Jack Clark, Chili Davis, Chris Brown, Will Clark, Matt Williams, though I loved John the Count Montefusco too - but I've been trying to explain how significant starting pitchers can be for many years now.

Starting Pitchers More Influence Than Most Think

People (particularly sabers) point out that position players play every game and contribute almost every game, but I think that they are missing one important point:  affect on the outcome (i.e. win/loss).  Unless the hitter is hitting a home run, he can go 5 for 5, but if everyone else don't get a hit, there is no offense.  A hitter, in isolation, is relatively useless.

A pitcher can command how a game go.  Even the lousiest of pitchers can have a well pitched game sometimes.  Not that he was lousy, but Bobby Jones of the Mets shut down the Giants in the playoffs when he was not that particularly good as a starting pitcher.  But that day, he was the ace they needed.  And the best of pitchers - Lincecum, Cain, among others - can deliver a well pitched game anywhere from 50-80% of the time.  

Unless the hitters are getting on base before the big bopper, he can't really influence a game all by himself, he needs men on base to have a great affect on the game's result, win or lose.  So while a hitter can contribute something almost every game he plays, the opportunities he has to truly influence a game's results are limited and depends on the other hitters to deliver before and after him.  A good example of this is San Diego's offense with A-Gon and the 7 offensive dwarfs and the Giants previously with Barry Bonds in his last few seasons.

Some will say that this is not Bonds or A-Gon's fault, that they were not surrounded by hitters who could make them pay off offensively.  But that still ignores the reality that pitchers don't really need others in that way, though they do need the position players to play adequate defense.  But pitchers like Lincecum and Sanchez who strike out a lot of batters, sometimes up to half of the hitters they face, have a lot of control over the action that don't involve their fielders.  That is the DIPS supposition - measuring those things that pitchers have control over.

Pitchers have a lot of control over what they do in the game, and the best can do it a large majority of the time, on a game by game basis, which puts the team in great position to win when they are able to do that.  So it might seem like a position player contributes more because he plays 150+ games plus fields his position, but the pitcher has a greater contribution to the outcome of any particular game he starts, anywhere from 10 to 25 starts out of 32.  

As I've been documenting and following in my side column, when the opposing team is held to 3 runs or less, your team wins the great majority of the time, even with as poor an offense as the Giants had in 2009.  When you have a rotation full of pitchers who can do that, it is easier to win games, it is easier to win series.  And they have a direct effect on the outcome of the game, whereas even the best hitters in history can only influence the outcome.  We got a great example of that in yesterday's game, Burrell had a grand slam and we should have won, but he wasn't the game winner hit.

Of course, without hitters, even great pitchers can't win, but given the choice of a great hitter or a great pitcher, I would go for the great pitcher every time because if he is on top of his game, we win the game, even with a near bottom of league offense, but the hitter can hit 4 homers every game and we could still lose 5-4 each time because we have no pitching.  

Molina Traded to Rangers

Wow, the Molina era is over, long live the Posey era!

According to John Shea of the SF Chronicle, the Giants have traded Bengie Molina to the Texas Rangers for Chris Ray and a player to be named later.  It was first reported by Foxsports possibly involving getting Chris Davis or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and perhaps still involve them later as the Giants don't have a 40 man spot to accommodate either right now, so perhaps one of them might come over once the Giants figure out a spot.  I wouldn't mind getting Saltalamacchia, who I consider a better prospect, but obviously Davis would provide power and that is something the Giants have been searching for.  Molina is important for the Rangers as they lead the AL West and are many games over .500, and catcher has been a rotation among rookies and prospects, and a sore spot, so they wanted the vet.

Clearly, this has a few larger meaning for the team.  Obviously, that means that Posey is now the starting catcher, for better or for worse.  For worse, see how Matt Weiters has done for the Orioles in 2009 and 2010.  Hopefully Posey can get untracked, apparently he was kept out of the lineup to showcase Molina for this trade.  This might get him in the flow of things better, he'll be more comfortable and can start hitting again.

It also means that firstbase is now open.  That could mean more Uribe at 3B and Sandoval at 1B.  It would also mean more Huff at 1B, opening up an outfield position for Rowand or Schierholtz to play more, assuming that Torres and Burrell are the current starters.  It could also give Ishikawa some starts, as Bochy noted that the Giants are having problems with RHP.

In addition, Chris Ray was the former closer for the Orioles once upon a time, until, I think, injuries held him back.  He is not doing so well in striking out guys, so that is a negative, though, but his ERA is good.

I assume he's going into the bullpen to shore it up, but then who would go down?  He's RHP so that would suggest one of Bautista, Romo, Moto, or Casilla would go down, but it could also mean Runzler, though he had a great appearance the last time he pitched, so I wouldn't think that.

Both Romo and Runzler have options, so even though Romo's ERA is good right now, I think he gets the short straw and get sent down, unless the team decides to carry an extra reliever right now in light of the poor outings by the starters lately, in which case there is no problem.

Update:  Baggarly report other details.  Ray still have an option so he can be sent down.  The Giants are sending money to offset the difference between Molina and Ray's salary.

FLew The Blue Jay

As has been reported by numerous channels (including his Facebook account and Twitter), Fred Lewis has been traded from the Giants to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.  (Schulman, Splash, Baggerly, ExtraBaggs, sfgiants.com).  He thanked his supporters and is happy to move on.

Giants Thoughts

Reading through all the accounts, it just sounds like it was time for Lewis to go, that he (and the Giants) would be better off if he were in another place.  Sometimes in life, you just need a change of scenery to change things for the positive.  Lewis has been asking for a trade since last year and it sounds like he would be a poison on the bench because he's unhappy with Bochy's handling of him.

I wanted the Giants to keep him, as he at least has had success at one time or another as a starter in LF, but if he's unwilling to bat lead-off when the manager wants to bat him there, what are you going to do?  I was hoping he could be adult about this and accept a backup role on our team, but the Chronicle account noted that Lewis "believed he would molder under a manager unwilling to let him play."  I still prefer him over Velez and Torres, though I'm OK with seeing Torres platoon with Bowker in RF, but I'm not shedding tears over it.

Still, there are many tear-jerkers out there complaining about this deal and they don't really get that his MLB stats is not the only evidence of his abilities, his minor league performance is too, and it was never pretty there nor particularly good when viewed by MLEs.  And his defense could be great one year and horrendous the next, he was very inconsistent.

Which shows the great conundrum of Fred Lewis, the ballplayer: his inconsistencies as a player all through his career.

Do you believe in his 2008 batting line of .282/.351/.440/.791 (BABIP .365) or do you believe in his 2009 batting line of .258/.348/.390/.738 (BABIP .344), which was boosted by 5 HBP whereas he had zero in 2008? His MiLB career BABIP of .339 suggests that 2009 is more of his future than the shiny .365.  And what good is that if he believes that he's a #3 hitter and not a leadoff hitter?

The thing is, you can't really tell what type of player you got after two seasons, particularly when he has basically a good first year and a bad second year. I think Jeff Francoeur hitting is a pretty good example of that. However, when you start to mix in what he did in the minors, then it becomes clearer which is the mirror and which is the mirage:  his 2009.

And people often forget to account for age when looking at what a player does in AAA. I'll bet many will look at his great stats right now in AAA and think how stupid the Giants are, but the fact is that at age 29, he's a man among boys in terms of experience, he better be beating up on them.

Bottom line, he's 29 years old and very inconsistent.  The story was that this was a result of him playing football, but he stated very clearly that he doesn't know how that story got put out there, but he's been playing baseball all his life and it is his first love.  Just chew on that thought while thinking about all the times he took the wrong route to the play or showed no instincts at all for playing the outfield.

Also, as a left-hander, he has to know about how badly AT&T Park affects his power, or what little of it he has displayed in his career.  The scary thing is that he has hit waaay better at home than on the road (a la Ishikawa), if he had been hitting what he hit on the road (career .245/.323/.378/.701 and that is a fluke of his 2007 season, the last two seasons, roughly .313 OBP and .670 OPS), nobody would be crying over losing him.

As a final note, this is what his new team GM, Alex Anthopoulos, thinks of him: "He's a pretty good athlete. He can run a little bit. He's really just a left fielder in our eyes, but he's someone who we think can be a good left-handed bat off the bench and a guy that, if he's ever thrust into more playing time, at least he's done it before and he's more familiar with that type of role." At least he's done it before, that is the best they can say about him. If he thinks that he's better off with them, great, but I think he's going to regret it by the end of the 2010 season.

Here's hoping we pick up another nice prospect pickup in the trade, I like the pitcher we got for Snyder, who we traded to the Rangers.  Much better than money.

Giants Trade Taschner, then Flips for Hector Correa

The Giants traded Jack Taschner to the Phillies for Ronny Paulino, and promptly flipped him to the Florida Marlins for Hector Correa.  Paulino had a nice first season as a good hitting catcher, prompting thoughts that the might be our new backup catcher, but then he was traded for Correa.

Minor League Baseball Analyst had this to say about Correa:

Tall/projectable  pitcher with a quick arm that produces late life to FB and gives him ability to mask change-up.  Slider is improving, but doesn't like to use it in tight spots.  Needs to pitch more aggressively, especially in establishing inside part of the plate and prevent hitters from sitting on FB.

He rated his potential as #3 starter and his talent level as an average regular pitcher who is still far away from the majors.

Baseball America had this to say about Correa, who they ranked as Marlin's 22nd best prospect:

Correa ranked right behind Mike Stanton and Gaby Sanchez at No. 13 on this list a year ago, but he mistakenly tried to extend that momentum by pitching through a shoulder problem that wound up costing him four months of mound time in 2008.  His rehab path was bumpy at times, though for the most part he showed the necessary discipline.  Team officials believe he learned his lesson after trying to conceal an injury.  Correa manged to return for a fall minicamp and showed only slightly diminished velocity.  Intead of humming fastballs at 91-94 MPH and touching 95 MPH like he had in 2007, he worked mostly at 90-92.  He has a low-80's slider that shows good bite, but he remains more comfortable using a changeup that shows excellent action.  The shoulder problems came as a surprise because he has a loose arm and smooth, easily repeatable delivery, which allows him to throw strikes.  his frame is lean and projectable.  He's a good athlete with plus makeup.  Correa will open his third straight season in low Class A, with hopes of finally advancing in 2009.

Giants Thoughts

I have mixed feelings about the trades.  Paulino, just in 2006, hit .310/.360/.394/.754 as a regular, then hit .263/.314/.389/.703 the next season, then sunk to .212/.277/.305/.582 last season.  He also jacked 6 HR in 2006, 11 HR in 2007, then 2 HR in 2008, so he has a bit of power and being only 28 years old for 2009 season, he's hitting his physical prime and typically career peak period.  He would have been a great option as backup for us, plus if he regained his hitting stroke, could have been traded for more value.

Still, Hector Correa isn't that bad either.   If he can hum it in at 94-95 as a starter, as a reliever he would be capable of more.   That is great velocity.  And with late life on his pitches and the ability to hide his pitches, he could strike out a lot of guys.   I think I like the trades overall, as I suspect that despite trading Paulino, Steve Holm is not a sure thing to be backup.

Recent reports say that Sandoval is starting to get some playing time as a catcher.   He could become the backup catcher for Molina because both Aurilia and Uribe could play 3B in his stead.  I suspect that Holm might be sent down because a lot of our potential bench players are playing well.  

At 2B, both Burriss and Frandsen has done enough to earn the job (Burriss more so) so the player who doesn't start would get a bench spot now, when I thought it would end up with Frandsen starting and Burriss starting at SS in Fresno.  In the outfield, Andres Torres has been great, but Velez hasn't done anything to say that he should not be there either.  Plus Nate Schierholtz is a sure thing, as well as Uribe and Aurilia, for the bench.  That's 6 bench players, leaving no space for Holm.  

If there were not so many doing so well, Holm probably would have gotten a spot by default.  But with so many players doing so well, the Giants appear to feel that they need to open up spots, including going with only 11 pitchers in the pitching staff, in order to reward the good play with starting the season on the major league roster.  

Of course, there is still the possibility that this was the plan all along, that they would start Sandoval strictly at 3B during the spring, then near the end give him some reps at catching to prepare for the season as backup, pushing out Holm.   Either way, it is a good idea to include another useful player on the bench plus reward them for their good play in spring.  

However, the clock will be ticking, because when Romo is ready for the team, they will probably bring him and drop down someone off the bench, namely Torres, Velez, and perhaps the 2B backup.  Also, there has been rumors that Velez could be on the trading block as well.

Sweeney Traded: Sweet for Ortmeier

Mark Sweeney has been traded to the enemy - the LA D-gers - for the same old, same old, the noted PTBNL (Player To Be Named Later). This is the first trade between old buddies (and twins) Brian Sabean and Ned Colletti, and the first trade between the Giants and the D-gers since 22 years ago when we acquired the immortal Candy Maldonado (gee, are Giants RF's cursed, he had the slide long before Jose Cruz Jr.'s dropped easy flyball) for Alex Trevino, a catcher we had. Despite the slide and missed flyball, we got the better of that exchange.

We are not going to get much of a prospect for Sweeney, in terms of near-term help, maybe we might get a long-term project like 1B Kyle Orr, a nice power-hitter they drafted last year but still way down the system, or a failing/failed prospect like 1B Cory Dunlap, but none of their more interesting prospects like Andy LaRoche, Chin-Lung Hu, or Blake DeWitt. Still, a prospect is a prospect, he should be better than whatever we get in compensation with Sweeney as a free agent, though I kind of doubt we get anything for him.

Sweeney was a clear B-free agent rating last off-season, so he probably would still yield a B this off-season, though it might be close because the eliminated 10% of the A's, which moved up the score he needs to be a B. Since it is cut off at the 40% level, it should be around 45 this year and he was tied for 41st last year. However, his stats this year, as stellar as it has been as a pinch-hitter, is down from 2005, as the rating is based on two-year production, so it looks like he might have fallen down to the C level, which gets no compensation this year. So any prospect for him right now is probably better than the nothing we probably would have gotten once he signed with anyone (though even that would be in doubt, we would have to offer arbitration as I doubt any team is going to sign him before the deadline for compensation, as I doubt there is a lot of competition for him).

To sum, Sweeney was a good soldier, though he was a little miffed early this season when it was speculated that he might be dropped off the roster, so it is good that we got someone for him, even a spec. And he has been a great teammate, setting up the Giants Idol competition both years, generally being a good influence in the clubhouse. Or maybe he's one of those Morris was sniffing at about accepting losing? :^) As a Giants fan, I salute him and his contributions, but wish him nothing but nothing since he's with the evil D-gers now, sorry, can't wish him good hitting.

Ortmeier Promoted

Dan Ortmeier, come on down! He's the lucky prospect who gets the call-up, and not a moment too soon, given Roberts injury - Roberts will probably be out for at least a few days. Sweeney was a luxury a losing team don't really need, we needed someone more like Ortmeier on the roster instead, one who could be a true 4th OF, who can play all three OF positions, and who is young and can hopefully learn and develop up here.

I like Ortmeier, and there must have been something there that Bonds saw because he actually was helping Ortmeier before spring training, I think in 2006, and given how Bonds don't normally give his teammates the time of day, that seemed significant to me. Besides, how can you not like a guy who is that tall and yet can steal bases in double figures plus hit the long ball as well?

Other Compensation Thoughts

First, for those who don't think much about Morris, he was rated an A-compensation pick last season, but will drop to a B this off-season because of the change in the latest CBA. A lot of Giants fans (and other fans) like to disparage him and his stats, but he really was a good pitcher, that is how far ERAs has risen in our era, due to whatever started runs to rise in the 90's (I'm going to post one expert's very logical take on this; I just realized that not everyone has seen everything I have).

Given that Rajai Davis looks to be good enough to be Dave Roberts platoon buddy in 2008 and to play the other OF positions OK, I think we got pretty good value for Morris, better than what a B-compensation pick, which is at best a 2nd round pick, but could fall to later rounds easily. And the player to be named later - which will probably depend on how well Morris does, so wish him well, except against the Giants (I'll bet he'll be amped up like he was last year and have a poor start against us, much like he has since mid-June) - will be like a cherry on top.

Other vets on the trading block possibly:

• Klesko was a B after 2006, but with the change in the ranges and his good but not improved hitting overall, he's probably a C after this season, and we would not be due compensation for him.
• Durham was clearly an A, but with his collapse this season and smaller A-range, probably falls to a B but if he recovers next year, he should be still around there.
• Aurilia was an A, but he'll be a B even without his poor season. I think he'll be lucky to be a B after next season, even if he recovers in 2008.
• Vizquel was an A bare would barely be one this season after the reduced A-range, and his poor season would appear to sink him, but as I noted in my pre-season discussion, he seems to alternate good and bad seasons so he was due to be bad this year, just not this bad. But he has suddenly come alive and if he can keep this up for a while, he might be able to catch up with here he was in 2005 and keep his A-compensation rating. Unfortunately, we have no SS ready - though Ochoa looks interesting - so the Giants might be tempted to re-sign him, particularly if he is willing to take a big paycut (he mentioned he prefers to stay in SF). We will see, but if a good team signs him, we get a back of the first round pick possibly (if he is that team's best A signing) plus a sandwich pick, very rich for him.
• Feliz was a B last year, but that rating would only earn a C this off-season, plus he's hitting worse this season, so he's probably not going to earn any compensation. Then again, who would want him?

I don't think Molina, Roberts or Winn will be traded, so I won't cover them.

Morris Traded With No Cash!

Amazingly, the Giants have traded away Matt Morris to the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Rajai Davis, straight up:

The Giants were looking for a team to take some of their high-salaried players, and the Pirates will pick up the remainder of Morris' $10,037,283 contract for this season. He is due $9.5 million for next season, plus a $2 million payment at the end of the season.

"Almost at the 11th hour we were talking to two other teams I would consider competitors in the playoff situation. Pittsburgh stepped up, not only to take on the player as is -- meaning the contract -- but the potential return," in Davis, Sabean said.

Apparently the Pirates liked how Morris mentored Cain and other young pitchers on the Giants staff and I guess he decided that it would help take pressure off their good young starters.

Rajai Davis

He's 26 years old, hasn't done much in the majors. In Baseball America's 2007 Prospect book, he was the Pirates' 27th best prospect. For perspective, David Quinowski is the Giants 27th best prospect.

He is the prototypical Sabean acquisition of the past few years: tons o' speed. He's a CF who has stolen 224 bases in six minor league seasons. He had good bat control when he started, almost a 1:1 ratio for BB/K, but he started hitting the wall in AA and AAA, as his ratio dropped to about 50-60%. So he has hit for a pretty good batting average, about .280 the past two seasons in AA and AAA, and walks enough to get his OBP up to the .340-.350 level, which is OK if he can do it at the majors (but probably not). His minors career line of .303/.374/.402/.776 would be pretty good in the majors, but of course, it is the rare hitter who can hit as well in the majors as the minors, there is a leap in talent level they face in the pitchers they hit against in the majors that represents the higher level of difficulty that is the majors.

BP notes that he "is beginning to look like Chris Duffy Lite." That's not a great comparison and they also noted the Pirates penchant to develop 4th OF types and YET still didn't mention his name, they mentioned three other OFs. That's pretty sad. Minor League Baseball Analyst views Davis as a reserve LF/CF: "incredibly quick athlete does solid job as leadoff hitter, making contact and drawing walks. Lacks poower and can be overpowered by good pitching. Shows solid range in CF..." and notes his above-average speed. They rated him 15th best prospect. BA notes that "His average and plate discipline have suffered against more experienced pitchers since reaching Double-A. Davis spent the final six weeks of last season with the Pirates and didn't start a game, an indication the organization views him as a reserve outfielder long-term." They didn't really have much else to say other than chronicle his path up the system and to note his great speed. As noted above, they rated him 27th in the Pirates system.

So there is the hope that he will translate his good bat control - he's still around 85% contact rate even with his reduced BB/K ratio and that's good - into a good batting average, but at 26 years old, he's done as a prospect. He seems to be a Jason Ellison type who is much better at stealing bases. He's batting .321/.390/.459/.849 (but with .352 BABIP) in AAA this year, with 27 stolen bases (and 9 CS for only a 75% success rate; very much like Ellison; he was a little better in 2006, 45 of 58, or 78%).

Giants Thoughts

I (and other fans) were hoping that the Giants would be able to trade Morris for a nice shiny prospect somewhere, but apparently Morris killed his market value with that flop of a July that he had. He also had some unkind comments about the Giants once he learned of the trade, which added to his recent negative comments about the team.

He seems like a nice guy but he did us no favor pitching with a broken rib last year and he was like a rookie starting out his first season with us too, leading to a poor first season with us. Then those unprofessional complaints, he should be pointing his finger at himself: if he was even average during July, we might be under 10 games behind right now (11 games right now) but here's the EARNED runs he gave up starting with his June 17 start: 8 runs, 4, 1, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6. If he would have just given up 3 runs in those starts instead (4.50 ERA for 6 IP), we would have had 3 more wins right now, 8 games back, plus two other games would have been tied; assuming one is a win, that's 7 games back now.

Now I guess we will see Russ Ortiz get to start for us and hopefully, if he can pitch well over the rest of the month, we might be able to flip him too for another prospect, since he really wants to start and not relieve, which is where I think he can help us most. So he won't be here next season most likely and we won't get anything in terms of pick compensation, so hopefully he does well and can be traded. Then we could have Misch start in September and see how he does.

I like the way Misch had been pitching the past two seasons, I wouldn't mind seeing him start for us next year, in competition with Sanchez for the #5 spot behind Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Zito. If he loses, he can take a spot in the bullpen, he's been excellent there the past two seasons; if he wins, I think he could possibly outdo Noah Lowry, his rise through the system mimicked Lowry except that he outdid Lowry at every level until AAA, if I remember right, but I think he righted himself the next season and has done very well for us since.

This trade was nothing like what people were hoping for. But the good news is that the Giants now save around $4M this year that can be used next year, plus take $9.5M off the books for next year, which frees up more money to bid for free agents as needed. Given the talk about going young and accepting less competitive results in 2008, we might be able to save some money for free agents in the 2009-2010 timeframe instead, or do a similar pickup of a veteran where we take on salary and give up a non-prospect like Davis.

Plus, judging from the comments, Morris's time with the Giants was just about up, I wish him the best of luck in Pittsburg, except if he faces the Giants, in which case I hope he pitches like he has lately.

Rejoice! Benitez Traded!

I heard the news from KNBR 680: Armando Benitez has been traded to the Florida Marlins for Randy Messenger (AP report). So long, don't let the door hit your fat butt!

Don't Kill the Messenger

At least the Giants got a player who can help us out now, in the bullpen, and perhaps be a fixture there for a while. It was orginally Yusimeiro Petit we were suppose to get for Benitez, in spring training, but he ended up being traded to Arizona for their ex-closer and he's still a work in progress and a finesse type starter when we are full up on starters anyway. Messenger, a right-hander reliever, is the one of the main setup men in the Marlin's bullpen this season. He is 25 years old, 26 later this season. This is his second full major league season (he came up for a cup of coffee in 2005).

This season, he has a 2.66 ERA (good) but 1.52 WHIP (bad), 1.33 K/BB (badder), 4.6 K/9 (baddest). He has 6 holds this season, thus far. Stats from sfgiants.com announcement: "The newest Giants has been unscored upon in 19 of his 23 appearances this season... the 6-6, 240-pound hurler owns a 3-8 lifetime ledger with a 4.98 ERA ... over 111 big-league relief appearances..." He is a Sparks, Nevada, native, so his family can come down and see him every once in a while, since there is never any guarantee he will pitch in any particular game.

His stats last year was not that good either but he had nice stats in the uppper minors, so there is some hope there as he's still young and show spurts of goodness. For instance, last year he had a great first half, 3.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 K/BB, which was almost closer good, but he was totally blown away in the second half, though a large part of that was bad luck with the long ball, over 13% HR/FB when 10% is the mean pitchers regress to normally. His command comes and goes, but he showed a lot of skill in the minors so hopefully he will figure things out, particularly throwing strikes.

He is described in my prospect book from last season as having a good fastball - "dominates with a lively FB" - that he can run it up to the mid-90's, and that he can contrast with his "slurvy-type" slider in the low 80's. He shows a "resilient arm." His main problem is his control. (Descriptions from my 2006 Minor League Baseball Analyst)

Closer-Go-Round?

So who is the closer now? Brian Wilson hasn't been that great this season, though getting better, but if I recall correctly, he just came back from some injury. So I assume we are going with someone within our bullpen right now. I think Hennessey will probably get a shot at doing it but I'm hoping that Bochy will be trying out everyone in this role, including Ortiz.

I'm hoping that Hennessey and Taschner can eventually become a duo-closer much like the Giants had in the early 70's with Gary Lavelle and Randy Moffitt (trivia: brother to Billy Jean King), but it might be too early to rely on them exclusively as closers. Messenger looks like he can fill the setup role OK when he is on, but I'm hoping that Correia will get a chance to do that also. But I don't think either can be closers. Same for Chulk and Kline.

Ortiz is probably still the long man out of the bullpen as I think it is too soon to start him doing short work - from what I've read, it takes a while to adjust to relief work. But I hope that eventually he works his way up to main closer as both Hennessey and Taschner are still young and relatively inexperienced, and will have their ups and downs. And I think the two of them have done very well in the setup role this month, so it would be nice to continue that.

Giants in June

As the Chinese proverb (really more of a curse) sort of goes, "we live in interesting times." I still like the team as is - of course a better reliever and hitter would be great, as Lefty Malo is agitating for, but I'm realistic enough to know that getting one will cost us a good prospect and I would rather hold onto what we got right now.

he offense will be better once we get back Durham and if Klesko can play regularly against RHP. They are important parts of our offense, else there is only really Winn, Bonds, and Molina to count on, that's why the offense has been sputtering (oh yeah, plus Aurilia's struggles). That's why I think we should have a good month of June, Durham and Klesko will return to the lineup and we should start winning games like today when Cain struggled but then held the fort at 4 runs for 7 total innings. He should have gotten at least a no-decision.

It is still as I noted before the season, enjoy how well our pitching rotation pitches, and hope for the offense to deliver enough runs to win the well pitched games. Oh, and it wouldn't hurt to pray for our position prospects to show something this season so that we can maybe use them next season.

Buncha Signings

Wow, what a flurry of signings:

• Ray Durham: 2 years, $14.5M ($7M/$7.5M plus $25K if reach 450 PA)
• Dave Roberts: 3 years, $18M ($5M/$6.5M/$6.5M)
• Rich Aurilia: 2 years, $8M ($3.5M/$4.5M plus $250K at 300, 350, 400, 450, 500 PA)
• Pedro Feliz: 1 year, $5.1M ($5.1M plus up to $500K performance bonuses)
• Bengie Molina: 3 years, $14.5M (not confirmed, backloaded, maybe $4M/$5M/$5.5M)

Pedro Feliz

About Feliz, to quote Herman Munster: Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn! Darn!

There is not much more than I can say but that. I was hoping that Richie was the new 3B and view this signing much in line with how I felt when the Giants signed Neifi Perez after I thought we had dodged a bullet by releasing him. I assume that the Giants will go with Aurilia if Felilz starts stalling out like he did last season, because he was going pretty well early on, but then had this really bad streak, which one article attributed to him coming into the season with more weight than he should have. Hence all the talk this off-season about him working on his fitness - to last longer and stronger into the season - and, to give us a laugh, he is working on his hitting as well.

All I can say is what the heck took him so long to figure that one out? He's been hitting like this ALL his career! He should have been working on this the moment he became a major leaguer, if he really appreciates his career and his salary. My only hope right now is that he hits so well early on that we can trade him mid-season for prospects and install Aurilia at 3B (assuming he starts as utility guy) and Frandsen as utility guy.

The Others

I like the other deals, though. As much as people carp on Aurilia as a 1B, clearly the Giants are not settling for him at 1B, he has been told that he will be playing all around the infield, though probably getting a lot at 1B (implying a platoon situation there where he hits against LHP there). In addition, the Giants are still looking at deals for 1B, whether Sexson, Burrell, or others.

Clearly, though, his hitting has been boosted the past couple of years by hitting in Cincinnati. Last year his big boost was his stellar hitting on the road, which he had not done in previous years, so that would be an area of concern in terms of falling back to the mean. But if he is not the full-time starter at 1B, he probably will be more than OK, taking starts from Durham, perhaps giving Vizquel some extra rest, probably giving Feliz 20-30 games rest there, since he clearly tired out, and perhaps getting 40 starts at 1B in a platoon with lefty there or less if a big trade is made for Burrell or Sexson, for example.

Roberts is still a good contract even after taking into account that he normally do not hit against LHP, as he has been platooned before. I like him at the top of the order, probably our best leadoff hitter since Brett Butler. I like his high number of SB and I especially like his high success rate, so he is not only aggressive but effective. He might be able to give some tips to Winn to bring up his success rate, so he could help out there for us.

Durham is a great salary given all the rumors of him getting $20M over 2 years or getting 3 year contracts, plus all the crazy salaries going to other players. Of course, what probably happened, probably much like Roberts with his platoon and injury problems, Durham also has been having injury problems as well, so his salary reflects the number of games per year one can expect from him, based on the past 3-4 years of experience. Which is he misses about 40 starts per season (he boosts his games played by PHing the past couple of years). Thus, his $7M is essentially a $10M contract if he were playing 150+ games per year; same with Roberts.

Payroll Impact

Adding up the first year salaries above, they work out to $24.6M. Based on the $45M figure that was mentioned in one newspaper, that leaves $20.4M left to spend on Bonds for LF, 1B upgrade over Aurilia, starting pitcher, and relief pitcher. That really only works if Bonds gets under $10M, as $10.4M seems a bit too low to get a 1B, SP, and RP, especially since there is talk that the Giants are pursuing Ted Lilly (ugh!) who is looking to get 4 years at $10M per season.

Trade Rumors

Besides the Ted Lilly rumor, there are a few running the rounds whereby the Giants either get Manny Ramirez or Richie Sexson and lose Noah Lowry, plus probably prospects, to Boston and either Seattle or Washington. They seem too ludicrous to even repeat - I think I am not too blind about Lowry's value, I'm not that much of a homer, I don't think, and to give up a cheap but young and good player like Lowry to take on an overpaid, old and declining hitter is not the right move.

If we trade Lowry, we should get a young player, like Baldelli, Crawford, even Vernon Wells, not old and expensive players. The trades that have been mentioned have been highway robbery type of situations where we give up young and cheap and they are being kind to give us a good hitter. If those deals are done without either cash or young prospects leaving their hands and into ours, we are being robbed blind unless there is something wrong with Lowry that we don't know about.

Another rumor I saw mentioned that the Giants were inquiring about Vernon Wells. I think I can live with that trade if the Giants are pretty damn sure that they can sign Wells to a contract and that he would be happy coming to SF, I don't want another A.J. Pierzitski situation happening. Wells would not be the greatest to get, there are players I would prefer more, but those players are generally untouchables, and he might be the best young player available in trade at the moment.

The Giants have also been saying that any and all of the trade rumors does not mean that the Giants don't want Bonds back. However, I don't see how they can do the trade and still get Bonds, as Manny only plays LF and they don't have enough money to cover Bonds and Sexson unless another team is giving up a lot of money to us in the trade, which would make losing Lowry more palatable for me, as that would even things up in my opinion.

Pat the Bat, Handed on a Plate

The Merc had big news for Giants fans last Friday: Pat Burrell, maligned and unwanted hitter of the Phillies, whom the team has been trying to unload because of his contract since the summer, was reported by his agent to be not only be willing to waive his no-trade clause to be traded to the Giants, but would be willing to play 1B for the Giants as well, which was his position when he was coming up the Phillies farm system. He currently only had the Yankees and Red Sox on the OK to trade list but both teams apparently are full up with 1B/LF/DH that they were not interested at all in Pat the Bat (here's a nice biography of him, he's played baseball in a local SF Bay Area high school).

What more do the Giants need to know? Hopefully Sabean and gang are talking with the Phillies as we speak and working out the details of the trade. The Phillies really need to free up salary to enable them to get into the Alfonzo Soriano bidding and unless they want to be "stuck" with Burrell and his salary, they need to trade him post-haste so that they can make plans. In addition, with their surplus of OF that they currently have, they have an acceptable backup plan if Burrell is traded and Soriano is not signed.

And lucky for the Phillies, the Giants have plenty of payroll space. The talk has been of dumping Benitez to the Phils for Burrell, but that only frees up $5.4M of salary for the Phillies in 2007. In lieu of giving up additional good prospects to the Phils, the Giants could also send, say, $4.6M so that it frees $10M for the Phillies in 2007, with the Phillies returning the favor in 2008 back to the Giants to even out the money paid, but shifting the payroll from 2007 to 2008. And that works for the Giants too because the free agent crop right now is pretty sparse in talent, but the next offseason could see Vernon Wells, Andruw Jones, and others up for grab, so they could use additional money to bid on players in the next offseason, instead of spending it all in 2007 on multi-year contracts and not be able to bid on these superstars.

The Giants would probably still have to give up a minor prospect, but I would rather shift funds in the deal than have to give up any good prospects for him, though if pushed I would. In discussions on McCovey Chronicles, people have mentioned Linden, Anderson, among others as possible tradeable chips. I don't feel up enough on the farm system this season to speculate, other than I would try as heck to avoid giving up any of our top prospects. Linden I think should be given a chance to start with us at some point given the power he has shown. Anderson has been a great reliever in the minors, though some posters thought that trading him now would be at his highest value, as he's not a pitcher with a lot of stuff.

So with Pat Burrell handed on a golden plate like this, hopefully the Giants won't look the gift horse in the mouth too long and pick him up. The window of opportunity is open now but it will close fast once the Phillies don't need to unload salary as much as now, before the free agents can discuss salary with prospective bidders. It's the biggest nobrainer in the history of mankind. :^)