Give Bob Mariano a Long-Term Contract NOW, STAT!

I will admit first that when the Giants hired Bob Mariano as the hitting coordinator for the Giants farm system, my reaction was "Meh, another failed minor league hitter becoming a hitting instructor, he didn't even make the majors, what is he going to teach our hitters?"  Then the great Andy Baggarly wrote an article about the geniuses behind Brandon Belt's transformation and, Frank Viola, I've turned 180 degrees on Bob, give him a long term contract now before another team tries to steal him.

Until recently, it hasn't been hard for a hitter to get ahead in the Giants' system. It's the biggest criticism of Sabean's 15-year tenure: In all that time, the Giants haven't drafted and developed a single position player to represent the club as an All-Star. The dry spell mostly had to do with poor draft position, including an ownership directive to punt the occasional pick and steer bonus savings to the major league payroll during the Barry Bonds era. 

The few decent hitting prospects to enter the Giants' system -- Todd Linden, Dan Ortmeier, Lance Niekro, etc. -- all seemed to wash out, collecting like driftwood in a tide pool. 

Posey, the fifth overall pick in 2008, illustrated the value of drafting high. And Belt is poised to represent a triumph for a rebounding player-development system. 

In just one season, farm director Fred Stanley and hitting coordinator Bob Mariano helped Belt transform himself from a lightly regarded college senior with a crouched, closed stance and metal-bat swing to a hard-hitting force who flew through the system. 

"When I got to (instructional league), I knew something would change with my stance," said Belt, a fifth-round pick in 2009 out of the University of Texas. "I wasn't sure what was going to happen. Bobby Mariano worked with me every day, raised my hands, opened me up a little bit. That completely changed my entire world right there. I was able to see the ball better. I was able to pull the ball, hit it the other way -- pretty much everything. 

"They're doing that with everybody now." 

Mariano uses a subscriber-based video system that can freeze-frame a young player's swing and compare it, point by point, to major league hitters. It's a way to persuade struggling prospects to change a hitting style that might have served them well in college or high school. 

Mariano said he breaks down tape of All-Stars such as Chase Utley, Robinson Cano and Joey Votto to demonstrate "the importance of what we describe as being 'short to long.' Keep that barrel in the zone a little longer so you don't have to be perfect." 

It's a valuable tool. No matter how good a piece of advice might be, it won't do any good if the player doesn't fully buy into it. 

Belt bought in from Day 1. And now Mariano has an even better visual aid to show the kids on the farm. 

He has Belt and Posey right in front of him. 

"Brandon Belt has the best pitch recognition I've seen in my six years here," Mariano said. "Just great aptitude. He's like Buster in that he's able to make adjustments from pitch to pitch, from at-bat to at-bat. He sets up like Posey. The hands and center of gravity are the same."

One of the interesting techniques to teaching that I recall is using visualization, and I've heard of the use of this to help hitters become better.  The idea is that seeing a good hitter or video of when you yourself perform a good swing, over and over, will result in muscle memory recall that will result in better swings when you actually swing in game situation.  I recall one of the A's hitters really behind that technology but I don't see a lot of mention about it in the interviews I read.  Mitchell Boggs is the name that comes to mind, but I think that's the name of a pitcher in the Cards farm system, so maybe it was that first name (oh, Mitchell Page?).  Anyway, I'm a believer in visualization and that is part of the functionality of this subscriber-based video system they are using to freeze-frame and break down swings, which is not mentioned in the article.

Obviously, the main functionality is enabling prospects to see how the good hitters do it.  As noted above, Mariano has broke down the swings of hitters like Chase Utley, Robinson Cano, and Joey Votto, to demonstrate "the importance of what we describe as being 'short to long.' Keep that barrel in the zone a little longer so you don't have to be perfect."  And, of course, now they have Posey and Belt as examples, which will probably drill the point home even stronger for the prospects, as they are people they actually played with and would feel free to talk with them about how they do it.

Of course, it would be even better if they did this with Barry Bonds' swing.

Nick Noonan Excitement

What I  was also really excited about was the start of the article by Baggarly, which noted prospect Nick Noonan:

Nick Noonan hit a wall. Once a top prospect on the fast track, he had a miserable year at Double-A Richmond that included a stubborn hamstring injury and a badly bruised psyche.
He went to the Giants' instructional league in September determined to remake his swing. And he knew what template to use. 

"I watched Brandon Belt," Noonan said. "I raised my hands. I opened up my stance. I started tucking my front knee to get my weight back. It's 180 degrees for me. I think I'll be able to drive the ball this year."

He was one of the prospects I was really high on last season, but he had a really down season.  However, one of the rules Ron Shandler's books have taught me is that once a prospect exhibits a skill, he owns it.  The crucial thing after he owns it is whether he can repeat it again, it is there, but it just needs to be brought out of him.

Noonan exhibited the good discipline of a good hitter in the second half of the 2009 season, taking a lot of walks and not striking out much, and this new tool appears to have helped him.  Hopefully 2011 will be the season I was seeing for Noonan in 2010 before failure and injury ended it.

Other Prospects to Watch

And there is nothing like a guy breaking out like Brandon Belt will do for encouraging the rest of the Giants farm system's hitters to at least try out the system.  Noonan, if he improves as he suggests in his comments, would cement that inclination and motivation, I would think.

Other hitters who have exhibited the ability to avoid strikeouts well, besides Noonan, include Emmanuel Burriss, Ehire Adrianza, and Rafael Rodriguez (EME was good but he went free agent last off-season and I think he signed with the Mariners).  There are others, I'm sure, but these came to mind first and I don't have time to research all the others, maybe another day in a follow-up post.  But these guys are the ones high up the system whereby we might see results this season in terms of breakouts.

It would be great if either Noonan or Burriss breaks out like Belt because that would fill out starting 2B need in 2012 after Sanchez's contract ends.  Basically, from a financial viewpoint, the Giants will have to let go of all their bigger paid veterans in order to be able to afford to keep most of their young stars like Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson, Sandoval, Posey beyond their 6 years of control.

Burriss is the closest and the one thing holding him back, well, besides getting injured all the time, is his inability to hit for power.  True, if he could take walks, that would help too, but if that hasn't happened by now, it is probably not going to happen.  However, power is a matter of technique and bringing that out of him.  Carney Lansford tried hard to convert him but failed and went back to the Rox, crying about his experiences here.  But he noted that Burriss has very strong forearms which Burriss was not using at all in his swings, resulting in very little power.

From a hitting perspective, it is the difference between Andres Torres before the Giants and Torres with the Giants.  He was an admitted "slap" hitter because coaches he had didn't know any better, saw a guy with flying speed and taught him to slap at the ball in order to get on base and use his speed.  He realized his time in the pros was nearing an end if he didn't change things.  He sought out the advice of a swing coach, who basically taught him Ted William's methodology from his book, and now, while he does strike out way too much, he gets on base adequately overall and, more importantly, hits with good power.  Burriss should really be bothering Andres all the time and picking his brains, he would be a good template to follow, because he's fast approaching the point at which Torres made his drastic change for the better.

Noonan, however, has exhibited the ability to take walks, part of his difficulties has been that he has been much younger and less experienced than the players he's been playing against.  Nothing wrong with that, many players are like that, probably means he won't be a star, but he can still be a very solid regular if he can put things together and a team can always use players like that.  Contrary to many fans' demands, not every player on a roster has to be a star for the team to win or to win the World Series.

Ehire is perhaps more critical because we will need a shortstop who can hit well enough to go with his superb fielding.  Both Crawford and Adrianza got the glove, but they need to show the hitting.  Ehire has shown the discipline before in an age appropriate league, but he has struggled relatively since, though nothing as bad as Crawford.  If this training can bring his hitting out, we should give Bob a lifetime contract.

Rafael Rodriguez is more of a long term project but he could zoom up fast if he picks up things fast.  5 tool prospect who has shown good ability when playing against guys his age and experience range, he hasn't looked as good in recent seasons facing older competition.  His big minus right now is power, but recall that Sandoval didn't start showing his power until he turned 22.  RafRod is still only 18 and most scouts feel that his power will come with age.

A better hitter than Angel Villalona (how good our system would look today if only...), in terms of avoiding strikeouts, RafRod could zoom up the system if he can use this technology to leapfrog the competition.  His ability to hit was the only tool that scouts really were in disagreement about, not all felt that he would solve that.  It sounds like this system might help him with that.

I guess another this system might help is Conor Gillaspie, who is known for being more of a pure hitter but one who didn't hit for much power.  If he could boost his power, that would make him more of a candidate to move up to 3B in the majors, and particularly 2B, which is the position many feel he would end up at when he was drafted.

Great Giants Accepting of Different Ways of Doing Things

It is very exciting to hear that the Giants are getting into such technology.  Whoever is responsible for this, whether Neukom, Sabean, or Mariano, should get credit for trying bleeding edge stuff like this, which as I noted, is really just improvements on prior technology and techniques, like the A's hitter I noted.  However, visualization is not an accepted technique, there are those who do not believe that this works,

Hopefully the success of Belt will be followed by other successes, maybe Noonan, maybe others, and more prospects will be willing to give this a shot.  It will probably not work for everyone, but being open to different ways of doing things is a good trait to have, you just need to move on to the next thing if that don't work for you.  Still, I'm excited enough that if Mariano is responsible for bringing this into our farm system, I hope the Giants give him security in a long-term contract sooner than later.

Especially before Sheriff Ned, Giants-wannabe, tries to hire Mariano away.

Your 2010 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2010 is different again, just like 2009, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 3 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the final three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

2010 Big 6 Giants Prospect

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2010:

1. Buster Posey: Just showed everything he was expected to be (unfortunately on the defensive side) plus more power than expected. He looks on track to be our catcher from 2011-2016 and hopefully with some more development, he will be ready to be one of our best hitters in our lineup, maybe hitting 3rd and Sandoval cleanup.
2. Madison Bumgarner: Disappointing season only because his velocity went down. Still, despite that, he was still able to strike out major league hitters at a high rate for us in September. I think even if he don't recover his velocity, he can become an ace-quality starter for us. If he does get the velocity, Lincecum and him would pair off as one of the best righty-lefty combo the majors have seen in my lifetime, harking back to the D-gers Koufax-Drysdale combo.
3. Zach Wheeler: Always hard to say with someone who has not thrown an officially recorded professional pitch yet, but all the reports I've seen on him plus rankings, make me comfortable in saying he's third. He's a high schooler who can already reach mid-90's easily and already shows three plus pitches at times: fastball, breaking ball, changeup. However, he'll be 20 YO for this season, as it appears he was held back a year and didn't graduate until he was 19. Still, he projects as a(nother!) front-line potential pitcher, and is more advanced than Bumgarner was coming out of high school.
4. Tommy Joseph: Some had Neal here but as nicely as he did in San Jose last season, that doesn't translate to a great major leaguer, at least not yet. Joseph's bat is seen by some as good enough for 1B, which is a high threshold, so he is highly regarded, particularly for his power. Add to that, he's playing at premium position, catcher, which makes his hitting that much better. However, he, like Posey, is new to catching, so he probably has a lot to learn, though at least he has a great arm. In an ideal scenario, he works his way up the Giants minors, one level at a time, starting with Augusta this season, and by the time he's ready to play in the majors, maybe he and Posey can swap off catching duties while sharing 1B, or if Panda is there by then because of his size, Posey probably could start at almost any other position (3B?) while Joseph would catch most games with Posey as backup and Sandoval as third backup.
5. Thomas Neal: Had a breakout year in San Jose after missing almost the whole 2007 season due to injury and only doing OK in 2008. He has some power and can take a walk, though he also strikes out too much still and don't have any speed, and thus range in the OF. A great year in Richmond AA this season would vault him into the Top 3, though that is partly because Posey and Bumgarner most probably will not be eligible for the list next season, Posey for sure, Bumgarner maybe.
6. Rafael Rodriguez: Like last season, this was tough to chose, but I went with RafRod. He is a 5-tool guy with plus plus power potential and plus speed and defense, and he knows how to take a walk. One book thinks that he could become a CF, which is a premium position to have both hitting and power, especially plus power. That is a tough package to beat. He did OK in rookie league, hitting .299/.392/.362/.754, with the only negative being a tick too many strikeouts and no power, but given all the walks, I think as he catches up in age and experience to others, he should be able to reduce his strikeouts, and at 6' 5" already, his power will eventually come as he fills out. Like Villalona and Noonan before, he'll be a young buck in Augusta, only 17 officially for the season (turns 18 in July), so he might again strikeout a bit, but I think he will do better than Villalona and Noonan in that regard, I just wonder if any power will show up.

Honorable Mentions

I still want to note other names, plus maybe a comment or three, because we have so many players who could become something but have obstacles of some sort:

• Dan Runzler: Looks like he can be a good closer eventually, his main problem is giving up too many walks. Our bullpen should be golden with Wilson, Affeldt, Romo, and him.
• Nick Noonan: He is the dark horse I would recommend people keep an eye out for. His main knock has been his lack of plate discipline, his one big skill when he was drafted, but he apparently was just a tick behind the pitchers until the last two months of last season, when suddenly he went from striking out 20+ times a month to keeping his BB/K ratio over the 1.0 ratio you want to see from a good hitter and his K-rate comfortably under 10%. That plus using his speed to get more stolen bases, and he should be ready to take over 2B when Sanchez's contract is over.
• Ehire Adrianza: He's already considered good enough to field SS in the majors, the main question is his bat. With no power, his ticket will be getting on base and stealing a lot of bases. He hasn't shown the SB-ability yet, but he has been good at taking walks and not striking out a lot, just a tick more than we would like to see, but he was 19 facing mostly 21-23 YO in Augusta last season. Giving his advanced understanding of the strike zone, he should continue to rise as he catches up with the pitches physically and experientially. These three could have been 6th (if not higher) easily almost any other year.
• Roger Kieschnick: Great first pro season, but he just strikes out so much that I'm worried that will be his downfall in higher levels. If he solves that, he'll be a five-tool guy who could hit in the middle of the lineup for us. Even if he doesn't, if he can continue to hit like that at every level, he'll be a great 5th or 6th hitter for us.
• Brandon Crawford: He's also considered good enough to field SS in the majors, and the Giants came out and called him the SS of the future. He was en fuego in San Jose last year but totally lost in AA after his promotion. He'll probably be there this year, and perhaps playing in a better park in Richmond will help him do better, Connecticut's Dodd Stadium could screw with a player's head, particularly one where power is a strong part of his offensive game. Still, strikes out way too much, something he must solve to make the majors.
• Waldis Joaquin: Until his TJS, he was rated a potential #2 starter, but now he's probably a setup/closer. With mid-90's heat, he definitely got the chops to be closer-worthy at some point. He walks a little too much, but strikes out a heck of a lot. He will be in the bullpen equation the next few years. He had a great spring and is battling for the final relief spot.
• Henry Sosa: He's also battling for the final relief spot with his great spring. He was a top rated prospect a couple of years ago, but injuries have held back his progress and potential. Still, he throws mid-90's heat, and did not walk that many batters the last two seasons, a good sign. A bad sign was his greatly reduced K/9 in 2009, perhaps the only thing to keep him from the majors.
• Jason Stoffel: Our steal in the 2009 draft, he did not disappoint last season, with a great fastball. A college closer, I'm not sure that he'll be able to do that in the majors, but he doesn't walk much while striking out a lot, which is good no matter what in the bullpen, and he should rise fast.
• Darren Ford: Never thought I would write about him here, because last season was his third in just Advanced A, and he's done poorly but he had a great second half of 2009 and a great spring with us. Defensively ready (an oft-repeated characterization for Giants prospects) for MLB CF, he has plus plus speed that he can utilize for SB when he is able to get on base. As he is already 24, he will have to continue hitting like that in AA Richmond Flying Squirrels to keep it going - unlikely because even while hitting well, his strikeout rate was still very high and his BABIP was very high too, though I would note that he used to have high BABIP early in his career too, it only got low in Advanced A the prior two seasons. Still a very high BABIP though, so he'll probably falter somewhere up the ladder, but if he can solve it like he did last season, he could be ready soon.
• Angel Villalona: His murder trial is now at least scheduled to be reviewed by a judge this month. His potential is still there and he's only 20 YO, so this could just be a very horrific bump in the road. It will never be known by outsiders what exactly happened, so as long as he is found not guilty or the trial is dropped, he should be able to continue his career in the U.S., though hopefully he will move his family to Californy, though not to Beverly Hills, hopefully some place like San Jose, CA, since that is probably where he should go back to if he returns back to professional baseball. Unless there is something stronger than a "he said, she said" situation - and there has been no news about finding the weapon or any connection between Angel and the weapon, other than they both were at the bar - he should be released by the judge for insufficient evidence or the trial would be relatively quick.

2010 Giants Prospects: The Experts View

OK, the various Giants top prospects lists have been trickling in and with BP's Future Shock coming in yesterday, I'm going to go over the lists.

Baseball Prospectus Top 11

Five-Star Prospects
1. Buster Posey, C
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP

Four-Star Prospects
3. Zach Wheeler, RHP

Three-Star Prospects
4. Dan Runzler, LHP
5. Ehire Adrianza, SS
6. Rafael Rodriguez, RF
7. Thomas Neal, OF
8. Roger Kieschnick, OF
9. Tommy Joseph, C
10. Francisco Peguero, OF

Two-Star Prospects

11. Chris Dominguez, 3B

He also listed these other prospects:

12. Jason Stoffel, RHP: "stuff ... misses bats"; "could prove to be a steal"
13. Nick Noonan, 2B: "love the tools" but slow to develop
14. Darren Ford, OF: "too little, too late"?
15. Brandon Crawford, SS: "plus glove" "questions about the bat"

Giants Thoughts

Can't really argue with the first three. And I respect Kevin Goldstein's work, I have liked what I have seen before from him. But I'm not sure why Thomas Neal is down so low (unfortunately, I don't subscribe, so I don't know why he was placed down so low). He really had a breakout type of year. I suppose a large part of it is his strikeout rate not being as good as you want to see from a hitter. But it was not that bad either and he walks a lot to compensate for it, as well as hit for HR power.

Perhaps he didn't want to jump on the bandwagon after just one good year, particularly since his BABIP was so high (oops, didn't catch that before, my bad). However, as I noted, his strikeout rate was greatly affected by his home park, Municipal Stadium in San Jose. His strikeout rate was good on the road and he walked more times than he struck out too. So while the BABIP is high there as well, the fact is that he has had a high BABIP his whole minor league career (.353) and hitters tend to regress to his own level of BABIP, not to the overall .300 that pitchers regress to (which is the general talent level of hitters).

Still, the MLE for his road numbers are not the best either, so that is a sign that he still have some development to do still, and he benefited from hitting more homers at home than on the road, which is a bad sign regarding his power. Richmond will be a great test to see which Neal is the real Neal.

And maybe he thinks that Runzler is great closer material, that could justify putting him above Neal. And if Adrianza can hit as well as his plate discipline while facing much older competition suggests while paired with his great defense, he would be a very valuable SS. And Rafael Rodriguez is another prospect I'll write about soon, so perhaps it is just a sign that the Giants farm system is a bit loaded now.

However, none of this is accurate because Goldstein rates all of them as only a Three-Star prospect. He's the expert, so what do I know, but it seems to me that they are at least Four-Star prospects. Runzler with the way he pitched could be a great closer, that is certainly Four-Star potential. Adrianza, I can understand, he dropped in performance in 2009 but still I thought he did well enough to not negate what was thought before. RafRod, too, I thought did well enough to suggest more of a potential, but I can see being on the fence with him since he is still young (but he wasn't so hesistant with Villalona). And Neal, I went over.

And the one prospect they do provide free, Buster Posey, he feeds into the hysteria that broke out when the Giants talked about playing Posey some at 1B. Still, he did note that Posey is staying at catcher, but the Giants were only talking about playing him at 1B when he is being rested from playing catcher, as a long-term plan to keep him in the lineup most of the season.

That would suggest that he could basically platoon with a left-handed 1B, like Travis Ishikawa or John Bowker, gettting rests at C when a LHP is the starter, allowing the Giants to benefit from a platoon style hitter (which Ishikawa is more like, Bowker not as much but still not that great either).

I think Nick Noonan is going to surprise people this season. He'll be one year more experienced and he was showing good/great plate discipline in his last two months of the 2009 season. He should also benefit from hitting in a neutral park like Richmond's vs. San Jose's poor park for hitters, which also hurt him. He also showed more power on the road, so he should be in double digits in 2010. He should be ready to take over when Sanchez's contract is over.

I would end with some comments he made in BP's Top 100 prospect list:

• #9 - Posey: "natural ability to hit .300 with 15-20 home runs a year."
• #20 - Bumgarner: "His ability to succeed with average velocity is a tribute to everything else he brings to the table. If the velocity comes back, and it should, he'll make this ranking look conservative" (FYI, probably the lowest I have seen anywhere).
• #88 - Wheeler: "He's a 6-foot-4 pure athlete who already touches 95 mph with command and tons of movement, so it will be the development of his secondary pitches that dictates his future."

Baseball America

They covered the Giants prospect a while ago and maybe I wrote on it back then, but here it is:

1. Buster Posey, c
2. Madison Bumgarner, lhp
3. Zack Wheeler, rhp
4. Thomas Neal, of
5. Dan Runzler, lhp
6. Tommy Joseph, c
7. Roger Kieschnick, of
8. Ehire Adrianza, ss
9. Brandon Crawford, ss
10. Francisco Peguero, of

Giants Thoughts

I'm OK with the ranking overall, which our local scribe, Andy Baggarly put together. I got their 2010 book (I highly recommend it for any Giants or baseball fan wanting to learn more about the minors) and I will add their next 5 as a bonus:

11. Nick Noonan, 2b
12. Rafael Rodriguez, of
13. Darren Ford, of
14. Waldis Joaquine, rhp
15. Jason Stoffel, rhp

And I would note that Angel Villalona was placed 30th with the comment that if he can resume his career - iffy at the moment given the murder trial and his visa being taken away by the U.S. - he would be one of the top five prospects in the system.

One comment that I found really interesting was this one about Conor Gillaspie: "Gillaspie's advanced knowledge of the strike zone actually might have worked against him. 'Unfortunately for him, it was a lot better than the umpires, ' San Jose manager Andy Skeels said. 'The bat was literally taken out of his hands. He easily cold've walked 30 more times.' " And he walked 58 times and struck out 68 times, both good. Still 100 ISO is nothing good, not enough for a 3B, but he could be OK at 2B, which I've seen some say he might end up at.

In BA's Top 100 Prospect list, these Giants were ranked:

• #7 - Posey: Lots of great commentary, too much too put here, but here are some snippets to whet your appetite: "draws legitimate comparisons to Joe Mauer"; "tremendous baseball athleticism"; "mental acuity is off the charts and he's a leader on the field"; "should be a perennial all-star"
• #14 - Bumgarner: "No. 1 starter potential, and his stuff would paly against big leaguers now."
• #49 - Wheeler: "projects as a front-line starter in the big leagues"; "is more advanced than Madison Bumgarner was coming out of high school"
• #96 - Neal: "became a more complete hitter in 2009"; "bat speed to turn on quality fastballs and shows extra-base power from pole to pole"

Minor League Baseball Analysts

1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Zach Wheeler
4. Tommy Joseph
5. Henry Sosa
6. Conor Gillaspie
7. Thomas Neal
8. Rafael Rodriguez
9. Angel Villalona
10. Nick Noonan
11. Brandon Crawford
12. Roger Kieschnick
13. Francisco Peguero
14. Ehire Adrianza
15. Wendell Fairley

Giants Thoughts

Deric MacKamey joined the Cardinals, so two Baseball HQ writers took over for him. I still recommend getting this book, cheap on Amazon, and if you buy it from them, they give you some extra goodies, excel datasets.

I'm surprised by how high Henry Sosa and Conor Gillaspie is, but I suppose if that comment about his zone awareness is 100% correct, then Gillaspie should get better as he rises and the umpires are better, and the pitchers would be forced to give him better pitches to hit as he will have more hitters counts with more balls being called. Plus, he also did a lot better on the road in terms of striking out and walking relative to that, almost 1:1. Given how hard it is to not strikeout in San Jose, that is usually where the hitter does worse, but he actually hit better on the road in 2009, because his BABIP was so high at home. Given his poor speed, his road BABIP is probably closer to his true talent level. Plus, according to them, he has been moved to the OF, due to his poor defense. He could be another EME redux.

For Sosa, they still believe in his plus fastball. Otherwise, I'm OK with their Top 15, though I would note that Wendell Fairley did not even make BA's Top 30, let alone Top 15. They love his speed, which is one of the best around (5 pluses in their rating system), though he did not make their Top Speed list of prospects. They think his good bat speed and average power will make him a good CF.

I really like Rafael Rodriguez and so do they. They rate him as a future starting CF! And with plus plus power, plus speed and plus defense, with "true 5-tool potential". His power should develop as he develops (he's only 17 now)

With two authors, they have two Top 100 Prospect lists:

Rob Gordon:

• #4 - Posey
• #13 - Bumgarner
• #80 - Wheeler

Jeremy Deloney:

• #4 - Bumgarner: one of the few to rate him over Posey
• #10 - Posey
• #70 - Wheeler

Some key comments:

• Posey: "better than advertised"; "Pure hitter"; "good pop and bat speed"; "at times tries to pull everything"
• Bumgarner: "#1 starter"; "good movement and easy velocity"
• Wheeler: "#1 starter"; "plus fastball and slider"; "Good mechanics and generates easy heat"; "tremendous long-term upside".

Schierholtz Almost Lock for RF

As reported first on sfigants.com, then Chronicle, Brian Sabean at the weekend's FanFest, while acknowledging that Bochy is the skipper, noted that Bowker is not in competition for RF (he is viewed strictly as a LF), that he believes that we need the best defense there and therefore Nate Schierholtz is the odds on favorite for the starting position to take the place (but not fully replace) Randy Winn's awesome defensive goodness there in previous seasons.

The master plan, as I've been saying for a while, is as Sabean commented:

"Realistically, you're going to have to do some things with this ballclub," Sabean said. "... But in a lot of ways, that gets everybody more involved from day one. You get everybody into the action and they're staying ready, and if somebody falters or gets injured, they're more likely to step up."

Flexibility to play multiple positions, so that players can be more easily replaced late in the game, helps to keep players on the bench ready to perform should the need to replace the starter, for whatever reason, is necessary.

Other FanFest Newsbits, rumored and otherwise:

• The Giants are pursuing two free agents, and two names that have been popping up are Todd Wellemeyer and Hisanori Takahashi. Wellemeyer, just two years ago was 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA for the Cards, but slumped to a 7-10, 5.89 ERA last year. And while his FIP was better than his ERA, it was about what he has produced lately in the majors: 5.20, 4.91, 4.37, 5.15 for the past four seasons. Which season is not like the others? But he would be an acceptable 5th starter while Bumgarner gets more AAA seasoning to make sure he's OK physically (i.e. his velocity is back up) and to give him less pressure to start the season. He can then come in mid-season and replace Wellemeyer (or whoever). Plus, this would give us another season of control over him.
• Giants are worried about Romo's long-term health and thus are concerned about over working him. Sergio noted that last season he was overused in the off-season by his Mexican team, leading to his health issues in 2009, and thus why he didn't participate this offseason and rested his arm.
• Sabean expressed excitement over two prospects that Giants fans probably are not aware of (both of whom I've written a little about in the past) Thomas Neal and Ehire Adrianza. The Giants likes Neal's athleticism and power potential. His star was stalled by an injury but he had a great season in Advanced A San Jose last year. They like Adrianza's defense, rated highly by some, but he's like a stick (6' 1", 155 lbs) and thus projects not to hit for much power, making his offense not that good, though he appears to understand the strikezone a little so he could become a good hitter, particularly if he can leverage his speed into more hits and stolen bases.
• The speculation, recently highlighted by Ray Ratto of the Chronicle, that the Giants should be over $100M in payroll was pooh-poohed by Bill Neukom himself this weekend, noting that he is not sure that the payroll would reach that high, "Payroll has crept up a bit, but I think it's manageable for us," Neukom said. Last year was around low to mid-80's according to the Chronicle. I would think that revenues were not as bad as feared when the season started, and thus the Giants probably made more money than they had planned for (or perhaps lost less than expected) and thus that extra margin could be used in 2010 for any overspends.

More About Neal

Thought I would talk a bit more about Neal and how his performance in 2009 shined brightly for him. Significantly, in a league of 22-24 YO, he was able to post the fourth best OPS among all hitters, and had the second best OPS for hitters under the average age of the league for pitchers (23.0 YO; 22 YO Kolby Clemons led) and the best OPS for hitters 21 YO and younger (though 20 YO Alex Liddi was right behind him).

Past young leaders include Pablo Sandoval and Josh Reddick in 2008, Kyle Blanks and Chris Davis in 2007, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, and Carlos Gonzalez in 2006, and lastly, Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood, and Miguel Montrero in 2005. Good set of players who has had some (or a lot of success) in the majors, sprinkled with those still trying to figure things out, but highly considered still. And as a caution of much to be learned, Neal's MLE works out to only .240/.300/.384/.684.

Still, he did excellently in Advanced A, up there with past players who have rose to the majors and made a good impression. He's like typical sluggers in that his strikeout rate is high (or viewed from the other way around, contact rate is low) but I would note that both Augusta and San Jose are both in pitchers parks, San Jose particularly so for their bad hitting background, which led to San Jose having the highest strikeout rate of any park in the minors a few years ago (when Bowker was there).

The good news (great news really) is that Neal's contact rate on the road while playing for San Jose was a nearly good 84% (ideally you want hitters with a contact rate of 85% or higher, where average is around 80%) and his BB/K ratio was even better with 45 walks vs. only 43 strikeouts. Both very good signs for a hitter, and if he can continue hitting like that in AA for the newly renamed Richmond Flying Squirrels in their neutral park (unlike Dodd Stadium, where power goes to die), he could find himself a mid-August call-up like Sandoval a couple of years ago, if a spot can open up in LF, which is the position he most played last season (and very well defensively).

As a RHH, he would balance off Nate Schierholtz in RF, who is a LHH. And both could hit for average as well as power. And both appear to be good defensively as well.

Put in Rafael Rodriguez, our Latin bonus baby who is a 5 Tool god apparently who can play CF (he hasn't done it as a pro, but the Minor League Baseball Analyst book projects him as a future CF), and we could have an outfield that can hit for average, hit for power, not strikeout that much, plus play good defense. Of course, Rafael hasn't even played above rookie ball, so this is just wishful thinking right now, but he's another prospect to be excited about who could be joining the team in 3-4 seasons.

More About Adrianza

Ehire's only just turned 20 YO, so he has time to gain some more weight. This is where the Giants should work on providing fitness assistance in the minors to help Adrianza put on weight as well as work on his fitness so that he can become stronger and more power. Or maybe teach him some martial arts, there were guys in my high school who were skinny like that but could lift the soccer poles (made of metal) like they were balsa wood swords.

While he didn't do that well in his first year in full-season ball in Augusta, as noted, that park is a pitchers park, so that did depress his stats a bit. Unfortunately for him, if he did get a promotion to San Jose, that park is another tough park to hit in. It really is a shame that the park is such a dump that it affects our hitter's performance. They should really fix that background so that it is more fair to our hitters plus not pump up our pitchers' performances and make some think that they are better than they really are.

Also, he was 19 years old in a league of pitchers who averaged around 22 YO and most of whom were 21 and older, so one must remember that when looking at how poorly he did. They did not release the 2009 league results, but his BA would have ranked 100th in the league in 2008 and 85th in OBP. Not great by any means, but it wasn't like the pitchers overpowered him, his contact rate was 83%, not the 85% we are looking for, but when the pitching got 2-4 years of experience on you, that's not bad at all. And he walked 42 times vs. the 66 strikeouts, again, not great but plenty of hitters have made the majors with a ratio like that.

Baseball Prospectus's Giants Top 11 Prospects

BP nicely provides their Top 11 list on-line here. The list:

1. Madison Bumgarner (Five Star prospect)
2. Buster Posey (Five Star prospect)
3. Angel Villalona (Five Star prospect)
4. Tim Alderson (Four Star prospect)
5. Rafael Rodriguez (Three Star prospect)
6. Conor Gillaspie (Three Star prospect)
7. Nick Noonan (Three Star prospect)
8. Travis Ishikawa (Three Star prospect)
9. Henry Sosa (Three Star prospect)
10. Sergio Romo (Three Star prospect)
11. Roger Kieschnick (Two Star prospect)

Just missed were Ehire Adrianza SS, Wendell Fairley OF, and Joseph Martinez RHP.

Kevin Goldstein notes:

Bumgarner is an obvious number one, but Posey isn't all that far behind him.
Some might flip-flop Villalona and Alderson at three and four, but I can't see
either player ranked lower that those two slots. Where Rodriguez slots in is
really a matter of your evaluation philosophy, but after that, it's anything
goes for the remaining six—Adrianza was the only player close enough to almost
make the list.

Additional comments on other prospects in the comment section:

• Ehire Adrianza: "Absolutely outstanding defensive prospect, but there are tons of questions about his bat."
• Wendell Fairley: "The jury is still out on Fairley. He's toolsy as all get out, but a long way from being a baseball player."
• Scott Barnes: "I'm perfectly fine with somebody calling him a sleeper. It's not a huge surprise that he ripped through some low levels because of his polish, but the stuff is hardly pedestrian. He's solid across the board with an average-to-plus fastball and decent secondary stuff and he knows what he's doing out there. He could exceed expectations."
• Pablo Sandoval: "I really think 1B is his only option, to the point that he might fit a bit better on a AL team. I do think he can hit enough to be an every day first baseman, certainly at least on this team.".

Giants Thoughts

That was my Top 5 but I had Ishikawa 6th while he had Gillaspie 6th and Ishikawa 8th. I basically agree with what he wrote, based on what I've read about the prospects and their career data, as available.

Your 2009 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation.  I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later. 

I normally don't do this that early, I usually do this in spring, but there is a poll going on at MCC and I had most of this written already, was basically stuck on the last pick, as I'll get into below, so I thought may as well do it now.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list.  There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever.  And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.  

But 2009 is different, we have a lot of players.  And that's true even though players like Schierholtz, Sandoval, Burriss, and Velez are no longer eligible, even though none are currently starters (though Sandoval and Burriss are slotted for spots, much like Wilson was slotted for the closer spot for 2007 and did poorly enough to get sent back to the minors, let alone make the bullpen).

Here are the players I think would normally be all deserving of making the list this season if it were almost any previous season:

• Ehire Adrianza
• Tim Alderson
• Madison Bumgarner
• Brandon Crawford
• Wendell Fairley
• Conor Gillaspie
• Travis Ishikawa
• Julio Izturis
• Roger Kieschnick
• Joe Martinez
• Nick Noonan
• Kevin Pucetas
• Buster Posey
• Rafael Rodriguez
• Ryan Rohlinger
• Sergio Romo
• Hector Sanchez
• Henry Sosa
• Angel Villalona

That is quite a long list of prospects, we are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons.   The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first.

However, it is pretty clear for the most part who the top players are, while there are a number of players who are borderline for the list, which made the selection for the final spot difficult to come to a decision on.

2009 Big 6 Giants Prospect

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2009:

1. Madison Bumgarner:  On top of how stellar he did in 2009, he suffered through 3 horrible starts before returning to his old mechanics and generating a 0.90 ERA the rest of the season.  He led the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.  All at age 18, in a league where players average 22 years of age.  I don't see how they don't jump him up two levels to AA and pair him up with Alderson there in Connecticut.  As far as I'm concerned, he's ready for the majors but it won't hurt him much to have another professional season under his belt plus push the start of his career more into when the Giants have rebuilt than while still rebuilding.  For comparision, Jonathan Sanchez when he did so great in Augusta in 2005 when he was 22 years old, rose quickly to the majors in 2006, as he dominated in brief stints in AA and AAA before making the majors for good.  And his stats there was not quite as good as Bumgarner except for strikeouts, Bumgarner was better or equal by most measures:
   
   Sanchez pitched 125.2 IP with 122 hits, 39 walks and 166 strikeouts in A-ball at age 22 and was brought up to the majors the next season because he was so dominating.
   
   Bumgarner pitched 141.2 IP with 111 hits, 21 walks and 164 strikeouts in A-ball at age 18. Better H/9, BB/9, K/BB, WHIP, and ERA, plus had a lot less experience. He’s basically ready for the majors in comparison to what Sanchez did in a similar league and level.
   
   
2. Buster Posey:  Buster would probably grab the first spot for almost any team in the majors, I think he is that good.  But Bumgarner was too dominating, much like how Lincecum was dominating when he was briefly in the minors, while Posey is still raw in terms of catching defense, that I had to make him first.  But Buster is definitely a close second, or 1B to Bumgarner's 1A.  
   
   He did a lot to earn such a high ranking. Winning the Golden Spike award (third in Giants history after Will Clark and Tim Lincecum; nice company indeed), among other awards established that the experts think a lot of him.  In limited play so far, he has not disappointed, hitting everywhere he has played professionally so far, fulfilling the high expectations that he is going to be an excellent hitter in the professional ranks.  The experts say that he won't have the power he showed in college but should hit 15-20 per year, which is good for a catcher.  And while he's a catcher now, he was formerly a shortstop and thus could be like a Craig Biggio, capable of playing multiple up-the-middle positions.  He would be a plus hitter at any up-the-middle position (but not a corner position, though).
   
   He should be assigned to AA because he did well when he was playing in the Hawaiian Winter League, which Bobby Evans compared to AA level talent, plus he is comparable to Matt Wieters who probably should have been in AA to start this past season.  In addition, the promotion of former catcher Steve Decker as the manager of Connecticut cinches that too, as Pablo Sandoval got his help in San Jose, and he should be coaching Posey full-time on learning the nuances of the catching position.  
   
   Like most Giants prospects, Posey will probably stay in Connecticut all season, as the Giants seem to like to keep their prospects in one spot in their first full season (unless absolutely forced, in the case of Lincecum) plus he seems to need a lot more experience behind the plate, including calling games, and learning the position.  Also, he would get to know and handle two pitchers who he'll see a lot of in the future, Bumgarner and Alderson.
   
   
3. Angel Villalona:  Here he is, living away from home for the first time for an extended period, living in a land where he cannot communicate very well with the people around the area, only 17 years old for the season (turning 18 late in the season), which is a year younger than any other player in the league, and still hitting above the league average OPS and knocking out 17 homers, good for a tie for 12th in the league overall, plus he got better as the season went on, finally hitting .308/.362/.529/.892 with 5 HR in 104 AB (21 AB/HR; about a 30 HR per year pace) in the last month of the season, and learning a new defensive position at 1B while still taking balls at 3B during practice.   The experts talk has been that he has 30-40 HR potential, so he seems to be fulfilling that at the end of the season.
   
   Yet, while he was #1 last season in most rankings, he has "fallen" to #3 this season. But that is a function of the other players earning their higher rankings than reflecting poorly on Villalona. While he did disappoint early on, one can credit the newness of the situation for him, both locationally and positionally (playing 1B for first time), and he quickly found his bearing and started doing better. Still, while he did really well for a 17 year old playing against 22 year olds on average, it wasn't like he was dominating them either, at least not until the end of the season (which could have been a function of the better pitchers getting promoted as well) and certainly nothing like what Bumgarner and Posey did.  
   
   He will probably be promoted to Advanced A San Jose and it sounds like they will play him at 1B again. I was hoping that they at least split his time playing 1B and 3B, because supposedly he's capable of playing both right now, so that he can keep up his skills in game time situations. The good news is that he was already considered a plus defender at 3B prior to the season and perhaps the Giants are hoping to have him learn to be equally good defensively at 1B, so that he could play either position with plus defense, depending on need, once he reached the majors.
    
4. Tim Alderson:  Only 19 years old, one of the youngest pitchers in the California League, where the average age of a player is 23 years of age, he had the 4th most strikeouts and the best ERA of any pitcher with over 16 starts or over 100 IP.  Normally that would probably rank him higher than 4th, but Bumgarner outdid him, Posey had an incredible season in college, and Villalona could be a monster in the majors and showed a strong hint of that at age 17.
   
   The caveat on Alderson is that his season was mostly driven by his success at home: 100.0 IP with a FIP of 2.79, .218 AVG, 0.94 WHIP, 1.35 BB/9, 8.55 K/9, and 0.18 HR/9 versus on the road: 49.0 IP with a FIP of 4.49, .266 AVG, 1.33 WHIP, 3.49 BB/9, 5.33 K/9, 0.37 HR/9. Research has shown that San Jose's Municipal Stadium has one of the worse outlier for stadiums in terms of strikeouts in all of the minor leagues, which hitters like John Bowker attested to the poor background for hitters there. This puts him behind Villalona, I believe.
   
   Still, he had a marvelous season, nonetheless, and will be promoted from San Jose most probably to Connecticut as I don't see the Giants feeling the need to move him up faster since he'll be only 20 for next season plus they need to overlap his prime years with our current players already up in the majors, so that he'll be ready to take over should we need to move or lose anybody, plus have his career start once we are competitors again which would extend the years we can be contenders; this same logic goes for Bumgarner as well, except that he's obviously ready for AA.
   
   Both will probably just move up one level at a time going forward unless either one pitches like Bumgarner did in 2008 at a higher level. If either of them is that ready, I think the Giants would make the move and trade somebody already in the rotation to bolster the lineup, most likely Sanchez.
   
   
5. Rafael Rodriguez:  Just one phrase says it all, "5 Tools."  Well, that and $2.55M, the largest bonus ever given a Latin American hitter.   He has raw power coming out of his 6' 5", 198 pound 16 year old body.  Above average speed combined with an above average arm makes him the right future right-fielder for AT&T.  Comparisions with Vladimir Guererro and Andres Galarraga have been offered.  
   
   However, the Achilles Heal for this Adonis is that while he has a lot going for him, the one thing suspect with him is that some scouts are not sold on his hitting mechanics and his overall feel for hitting. That could be the weak link in an otherwise stellar package for a position player. Still, obviously, the Giants scouts think otherwise and hence the big bonus, even bigger than for Villalona and as noted, the largest given a Latin American position player ever.   Five Tools, big bonus, good comparisions, these all put him as the fifth Top prospect for the 2009 Giants.
   
   
6. Travis Ishikawa:  This was truly the hardest one to pick for me.  A lot of players appeared worthy of this spot for one reason or another.  But Ishikawa had a monster year in 2008, an overall MLE season of .252/.331/.458/.789 with 18 HR in 421 AB (23 AB/HR) and 49 BB/88 K, which is pretty good for him.   It was even better in actual production:  .299/.377/.578/.955 with 24 HR in 405 AB (17 AB/HR) and 49 BB/81 K.   Plus, he is known for his defense.  However, he still had a weakness against LHP, hitting only .206/.333/.308/.641 in 107 AB with only 2 HR vs. .332/.394/.674/1.068 in 298 AB with 22 HR (it looks even worse in MLE).
   
   Still it was a monster year where he struggled greatly in April, but busted out in May and had close to a 1.000 OPS in the minors after April, with 23 HR in 321 AB (14 AB/HR). In addition, once he made the majors, he hit a nice .274/.337/.432/.769 with 3 HR in 95 AB (32 AB/HR or roughly a 20 HR season) and 100 OPS+.
   
   As noted, I had a hard time choosing this spot.  Ishikawa has had huge ups and downs during his minor league career and still strikes out too much for my tastes.  However, nobody in the minors had a better year out of the remaining prospects I was comparing him against.  His MLE alone was better than what most of the other position prospects did without adjustment downward to MLE in the minors.  
   
   Among pitchers, while a lot of pitchers did well, none of them were really considered that good a prospect, which for me meant that they really need to show that they have the ability to do well at least in AAA.  The best rated pitcher NOT above Ishikawa is Henry Sosa and he had a so-so season in only Advanced A.   Clayton Tanner is also up there but only did OK in Advanced A.  Waldis Joaquin similarly.  Nick Pereira got up to AAA but didn't do that well there.  Joe Martinez did well in AA, but he couldn't even beat 7.0 K/9 there and didn't make the Baseball America Top 30 last season.
   
   So Ishikawa not only outdid the rest of the prospects but has the potential to be a 25-30 HR hitter at 1B with great defense and OK to good OBP.  He's horrible against LHP but JT Snow had a long career with a similar offensive contribution plus Ishikawa profiles better as a power hitter, which I think is necessary for a left-hander to hit homers at AT&T.   Plus he made great progress in reducing his strikeouts in 2008, previously he would strike out about a third of the time (<>

Those are the 6 top prospects, in my opinion, for the Giants in 2009.

BA on Giants Signing of Rafael Rodriguez

Baseball America doesn't always make available free content, but this time they did on the Giants signing of Rafael Rodriguez.

As one can see from the handy list of the top bonuses paid, there is no guarantee that a big bonus is going to result in a good starting player. Failures include Wily Mo Pena, Joel Guzman, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Chin-Hui Tsao.

The good news is further confirmation of the general overall impression of Rodriguez's potential. They noted, "Rodriguez has good raw power and a projectable hitter's frame. A righthanded batter, Rodriguez has plenty of tools—he's an above-average runner with an above-average arm—but some scouts weren't sold on his hitting mechanics and overall feel for hitting."

In addition: "From a tools perspective," said one international scouting director, "you're not gonna find a better kid." That is a pretty good endorsement for his tools. Of course, as the examples above shows, tools don't always translate.

Giants Thoughts

Still, the importance of this move is still the same as before.

First and foremost, this is a continuation of the Giant's commitment to the International free agent market, with the second-highest bonus ever paid. This is a necessary tactic for any team, whether good or bad. This combined with astute selections in the draft will speed the rebuilding process.

Second, this is a continuation of the Giant's commitment to the farm system. People have incorrectly labeled the Giants as uncaring or disdainful of the farm system. Nothing could be further from the truth, just look at how the farm system's products defines the major league roster. This is a major investment in the farm system that should continue with the signing of Buster Posey.

Third, another highly touted position player has been added to the farm system. Obviously, the Giants need more position prospects who have high potential. Whether he conflicts with Nate Schierholtz in the future or not is immaterial: it is better to deal with the problem of two good players in RF than risk that we have no future power-hitting RF should Schierholtz falter.

The Giants re-building continues apace and looks better and better to this observer of matters of the Orange and Black. It don't really matter that most of their development has been in the pitching ranks: that is the hardest to find, hardest to harvest, and where, as I've been trying to show in my "Hey Neukom" series, true strategic advantage lies in building a baseball team structured to maximize their chances of winning in the playoffs, according to the latest baseball theories and studies have shown, and success is related to excellence in the pitching staff - starters, closer and bullpen - and defense, not to offense. Offense is necessary only to the extent that you can win with that offense and that defense/pitching.

With the addition of Villalona and Rodriguez, the Giants are continuing their re-build of their position prospects in their farm system. By the time they should be ready to join the majors, our starters should be done with their inconsistency problems and ready to win consistently with their stuff. Hopefully they will be enough to provide the offense necessary to win with our defense and pitching. In any case, our pitching staff right now is good enough to build around, now we need to fill the blanks in the lineup. We need at least three good hitters in the future lineup. Rodriguez is a good addition who may fill one of those blanks.

Giants sign Rafael Rodriguez

The Giants today announced that they signed Rafael Rodriguez, the highly touted right-fielder from the Dominican. I didn't want to mention his name before in case it fell through - I was being superstitious and didn't want to jinx it in any way - though I did refer to him a few times. They had to wait until he turned 16 on Sunday. The Giants, as usual, did not release the bonus figure, but the agent announced that it was $2.55M, the largest ever given in franchise history to an amateur player. Of course, Posey should and will pass that up easily when he signs with the team.

Like Villalona, the previous high mark in bonus paid, Rodriguez is a physical specimen: though only just turning 16 years old, he is already 6' 5" and 198 pounds. The talk is that he has five tools, and I've see comparisons with Vladimir Guerrero and now Andres Galarraga (which I've seen for Villalona before but he's not really a five-tool player either).

Felipe Alou was duly impressed (though I've yet to find him not to be duly impressed with our signings and prospects). He believes Rodriguez will add bulk to his body, though at 16 years of age, most people do add bulk to their frames during that age range, it is just the way the human body works. He also likes the way Rodriguez carries himself: "He's a very confident young person."

Giants Thoughts

The Giants need plus position prospects added. They have now added Villalona and Rodriguez, and hopefully Posey soon. That is exactly what the Giants need and they are doing it. The Giants future leaders in the lineup appears to be set, with Rowand perhaps still contributing in the early 2010's. I think the Giants are doing a good job thus far.