Giants Thoughts
I thought I would address a number of points/issues I've seen regarding signing Manny. First, though, I would note that I wouldn't sign him, mainly because I want to see the young prospects play. However, given that the Giants have to be concerned about attracting ticket buyers, I can understand the attraction, as they can ill afford another non-competitive losing season, particularly Sabean since he's being evaluated by Neukom this season.
And that's the first thing, would the Giants pursue him? He's the cleanup hitter we need and they inquired about him in 2007 so they had interest in him before and he has the capabilities the Giants need for their lineup. Even with the glut of outfielders, I think Rowand or Winn are valuable enough to be easily traded, Winn in particular, to drop salary in return for a nothing much prospect or two. However, they probably aren't willing to go more than 2 years with an option or two, making that rumor more believeable. But if Boras wants a huge contract, then the Giants are not in the game, as they probably only want a short term deal.
Thus, second point, would the Giants work for Boras? If Boras thinks that two years is OK because the economy will look bad for up to two years, and then hopefully pick up by the 2010 off-season, then he could backtrack on his demands. In that way, much like Bonds did, Manny would get one last big contract at that point.
In fact, Boras has done short-term contracts to build value and/or wait for better market conditions before: I-Rod. I-Rod signed a one year deal with the Marlins for the 2003 season, when the market was not going his way, then signed a long-term deal the next off-season with Detroit. That could be another way the Giants sign Manny, for one year, maybe $20-25M but with, say, $10-15M of that deferred into future seasons, like how I-Rod did it.
Thirdly, how would Manny fit in with Neukom's proposed "Giants Way"? He clearly would not fit in the Giants Way, but assuming the above, he's a short-term signing whereas the "Giants Way" is a long term plan and philosophy that the team hopes to instill in their prospects first and 25 man roster eventually. With a short 1-2 year deal, Manny would be clearly a hired gun and meanwhile, any prospect copying the worse aspects of Manny's behavior would quickly be reminded who the head honcho is: Neukom.
All this said, this smells like Boras churning his PR machine to make the D-gers sweat that their most likely strongest competitor in 2009, the Giants, could sign Manny to sweep us into the playoffs as the last puzzle piece of the off-season to fill. This could squeeze a few more bucks out of the D-gers and/or get them moving faster (which appears to be working, they just recently renegotiated Andruw Jones' contract to defer most of it in exchange for his release by the team; this was something that could have been done long ago, as most have known that Jones is out in LA for a long while, but just now got done, which opens up budget to boost their ability to bid for free agents).
While some say the Giants won't do this because they passed on Bonds recently, who share many negative qualities as Manny, they forget that Bonds would have been 43 in 2008, whereas Manny would "only" be 37 in 2009 and 38 in 2010. Given how well Manny hit in 2008, he should be a relatively good risk to take, in terms of risk of offensive decline, for a two year deal.
And while the Giants are jammed packed with outfielders, Manny is a big enough upgrade that trading either Rowand or Winn should be doable. Particularly Winn since he is a good enough hitter/runner to hit leadoff capably, and has been one of the best fielding RF in the majors in the past few years. That would open up a starting spot as well as off-load salary in 2009.
I think for a 1-2 year contract, and around $20M per year, it would be a good deal for the Giants and put them on top for the division. It would help the Giants lineup immensely while taking away some opportunity away from Schierholtz. With all the pitching additions, then Manny, they should be the team to beat in the NL West. Since most were used to dealing with Bonds, I think most can adjust to Manny, particularly since he's more of a friendly fun-loving personality relative to Bonds. And a short deal should make him relatively well-behaved.
Regarding 4th OF playing time, unlike others, I think Roberts will not get the vet nod for more playing time, he didn't get it in 2008, why would they do that in 2009? With more rest for Rowand, plus late defensive replacement for Manny giving some playing time to somebody, I think the Giants will give the bulk of that to Schierholtz (shifting Lewis from RF to LF), and I believe Schierholtz is the Giants backup plan should Lewis's recovery be stalled in any way.
Again, all that said, I think the D-gers see that they cannot let him get away and still appear to be the team to beat in the NL West (even with the losses they sufferred in their pitching staff) as it was he that made them an above .500 team in 2008, and thus they will eventually give him a contract long enough to get him to sign a contract with them. Even without him, I think the Giants can contend for the NL West title because they have improved while every other team has declined in one way or another.
In particular, with a rotation where the team - if Zito and Sanchez can pitch to the potential they showed in 2008 - can win almost any game plus a bullpen sturdy enough to hold any lead given it, the Giants should be exciting enough to watch in 2009 without additional offense added. Games will be close and exciting, with the team winning as much as they are losing, and if they make it into the playoffs, they have as good a chance of heading deep into the playoffs as anybody because of the strength of their pitching rotation top to bottom, particularly since it would add Sanchez to the bullpen.
