Morris Traded With No Cash!

Amazingly, the Giants have traded away Matt Morris to the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Rajai Davis, straight up:

The Giants were looking for a team to take some of their high-salaried players, and the Pirates will pick up the remainder of Morris' $10,037,283 contract for this season. He is due $9.5 million for next season, plus a $2 million payment at the end of the season.

"Almost at the 11th hour we were talking to two other teams I would consider competitors in the playoff situation. Pittsburgh stepped up, not only to take on the player as is -- meaning the contract -- but the potential return," in Davis, Sabean said.

Apparently the Pirates liked how Morris mentored Cain and other young pitchers on the Giants staff and I guess he decided that it would help take pressure off their good young starters.

Rajai Davis

He's 26 years old, hasn't done much in the majors. In Baseball America's 2007 Prospect book, he was the Pirates' 27th best prospect. For perspective, David Quinowski is the Giants 27th best prospect.

He is the prototypical Sabean acquisition of the past few years: tons o' speed. He's a CF who has stolen 224 bases in six minor league seasons. He had good bat control when he started, almost a 1:1 ratio for BB/K, but he started hitting the wall in AA and AAA, as his ratio dropped to about 50-60%. So he has hit for a pretty good batting average, about .280 the past two seasons in AA and AAA, and walks enough to get his OBP up to the .340-.350 level, which is OK if he can do it at the majors (but probably not). His minors career line of .303/.374/.402/.776 would be pretty good in the majors, but of course, it is the rare hitter who can hit as well in the majors as the minors, there is a leap in talent level they face in the pitchers they hit against in the majors that represents the higher level of difficulty that is the majors.

BP notes that he "is beginning to look like Chris Duffy Lite." That's not a great comparison and they also noted the Pirates penchant to develop 4th OF types and YET still didn't mention his name, they mentioned three other OFs. That's pretty sad. Minor League Baseball Analyst views Davis as a reserve LF/CF: "incredibly quick athlete does solid job as leadoff hitter, making contact and drawing walks. Lacks poower and can be overpowered by good pitching. Shows solid range in CF..." and notes his above-average speed. They rated him 15th best prospect. BA notes that "His average and plate discipline have suffered against more experienced pitchers since reaching Double-A. Davis spent the final six weeks of last season with the Pirates and didn't start a game, an indication the organization views him as a reserve outfielder long-term." They didn't really have much else to say other than chronicle his path up the system and to note his great speed. As noted above, they rated him 27th in the Pirates system.

So there is the hope that he will translate his good bat control - he's still around 85% contact rate even with his reduced BB/K ratio and that's good - into a good batting average, but at 26 years old, he's done as a prospect. He seems to be a Jason Ellison type who is much better at stealing bases. He's batting .321/.390/.459/.849 (but with .352 BABIP) in AAA this year, with 27 stolen bases (and 9 CS for only a 75% success rate; very much like Ellison; he was a little better in 2006, 45 of 58, or 78%).

Giants Thoughts

I (and other fans) were hoping that the Giants would be able to trade Morris for a nice shiny prospect somewhere, but apparently Morris killed his market value with that flop of a July that he had. He also had some unkind comments about the Giants once he learned of the trade, which added to his recent negative comments about the team.

He seems like a nice guy but he did us no favor pitching with a broken rib last year and he was like a rookie starting out his first season with us too, leading to a poor first season with us. Then those unprofessional complaints, he should be pointing his finger at himself: if he was even average during July, we might be under 10 games behind right now (11 games right now) but here's the EARNED runs he gave up starting with his June 17 start: 8 runs, 4, 1, 6, 6, 6, 4, 6. If he would have just given up 3 runs in those starts instead (4.50 ERA for 6 IP), we would have had 3 more wins right now, 8 games back, plus two other games would have been tied; assuming one is a win, that's 7 games back now.

Now I guess we will see Russ Ortiz get to start for us and hopefully, if he can pitch well over the rest of the month, we might be able to flip him too for another prospect, since he really wants to start and not relieve, which is where I think he can help us most. So he won't be here next season most likely and we won't get anything in terms of pick compensation, so hopefully he does well and can be traded. Then we could have Misch start in September and see how he does.

I like the way Misch had been pitching the past two seasons, I wouldn't mind seeing him start for us next year, in competition with Sanchez for the #5 spot behind Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Zito. If he loses, he can take a spot in the bullpen, he's been excellent there the past two seasons; if he wins, I think he could possibly outdo Noah Lowry, his rise through the system mimicked Lowry except that he outdid Lowry at every level until AAA, if I remember right, but I think he righted himself the next season and has done very well for us since.

This trade was nothing like what people were hoping for. But the good news is that the Giants now save around $4M this year that can be used next year, plus take $9.5M off the books for next year, which frees up more money to bid for free agents as needed. Given the talk about going young and accepting less competitive results in 2008, we might be able to save some money for free agents in the 2009-2010 timeframe instead, or do a similar pickup of a veteran where we take on salary and give up a non-prospect like Davis.

Plus, judging from the comments, Morris's time with the Giants was just about up, I wish him the best of luck in Pittsburg, except if he faces the Giants, in which case I hope he pitches like he has lately.

Closer du Jour: Hennessey Hits the Spot

As announced on sfgiants.com, Bochy said that Brad Hennessey will be the Giants' first option to close. It was noted that he was a logical successor because he had emerged as the Giants' top setup reliever and had recorded two saves.

In addition:

Bochy added that he might resort to a closer-by-committee system if he feels strongly that another reliever matches up favorably against an opposing lineup or if Hennessey needs rest.

Kevin Correia, Russ Ortiz and Jack Taschner were the pitchers Bochy named to compose that committee. Entering Friday, Correia had recorded a 1.26 ERA in his previous 11 outings, Ortiz was unscored upon in five innings spanning three relief outings, and Taschner has limited opponents to a .192 batting average.

So Hennessey's the closer, except when he's not the closer. Sounds fair enough, basically he gets first dibs to close whenever there is no compelling reason for another reliever to be used instead of him. And these relievers will get a chance to show what they can do in the closer role and allow Bochy to evaluate everyone without a true closer by committee scenario/mess. It will be interesting what happens the first time there is 3 lefties coming to bat with no history with anyone, will Hennessey get the call or Taschner?

And obviously, the title is written in pencil on masking tape, if Hennessey should disappoint at any point for an extended period, the situation will be fluid enough that one of those three might take over. Plus even if he is doing OK, if one of the three just suddenly is getting everyone out, Hennessey might find himself getting more rest than usual.

Particularly since Ortiz has a lot of history with a lot of batters in the league, whereas Hennessey, Correia, and Taschner have very little history with any of the batters. Given his long period of success as a starter, there will be a lot of batters who did not do well against him and Bochy might give him the call over the others to close out a game. I assume this is the out that allows Bochy to use Ortiz more if he proves that he can close again like he did when he was in the minors and college.

Rejoice! Benitez Traded!

I heard the news from KNBR 680: Armando Benitez has been traded to the Florida Marlins for Randy Messenger (AP report). So long, don't let the door hit your fat butt!

Don't Kill the Messenger

At least the Giants got a player who can help us out now, in the bullpen, and perhaps be a fixture there for a while. It was orginally Yusimeiro Petit we were suppose to get for Benitez, in spring training, but he ended up being traded to Arizona for their ex-closer and he's still a work in progress and a finesse type starter when we are full up on starters anyway. Messenger, a right-hander reliever, is the one of the main setup men in the Marlin's bullpen this season. He is 25 years old, 26 later this season. This is his second full major league season (he came up for a cup of coffee in 2005).

This season, he has a 2.66 ERA (good) but 1.52 WHIP (bad), 1.33 K/BB (badder), 4.6 K/9 (baddest). He has 6 holds this season, thus far. Stats from sfgiants.com announcement: "The newest Giants has been unscored upon in 19 of his 23 appearances this season... the 6-6, 240-pound hurler owns a 3-8 lifetime ledger with a 4.98 ERA ... over 111 big-league relief appearances..." He is a Sparks, Nevada, native, so his family can come down and see him every once in a while, since there is never any guarantee he will pitch in any particular game.

His stats last year was not that good either but he had nice stats in the uppper minors, so there is some hope there as he's still young and show spurts of goodness. For instance, last year he had a great first half, 3.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 K/BB, which was almost closer good, but he was totally blown away in the second half, though a large part of that was bad luck with the long ball, over 13% HR/FB when 10% is the mean pitchers regress to normally. His command comes and goes, but he showed a lot of skill in the minors so hopefully he will figure things out, particularly throwing strikes.

He is described in my prospect book from last season as having a good fastball - "dominates with a lively FB" - that he can run it up to the mid-90's, and that he can contrast with his "slurvy-type" slider in the low 80's. He shows a "resilient arm." His main problem is his control. (Descriptions from my 2006 Minor League Baseball Analyst)

Closer-Go-Round?

So who is the closer now? Brian Wilson hasn't been that great this season, though getting better, but if I recall correctly, he just came back from some injury. So I assume we are going with someone within our bullpen right now. I think Hennessey will probably get a shot at doing it but I'm hoping that Bochy will be trying out everyone in this role, including Ortiz.

I'm hoping that Hennessey and Taschner can eventually become a duo-closer much like the Giants had in the early 70's with Gary Lavelle and Randy Moffitt (trivia: brother to Billy Jean King), but it might be too early to rely on them exclusively as closers. Messenger looks like he can fill the setup role OK when he is on, but I'm hoping that Correia will get a chance to do that also. But I don't think either can be closers. Same for Chulk and Kline.

Ortiz is probably still the long man out of the bullpen as I think it is too soon to start him doing short work - from what I've read, it takes a while to adjust to relief work. But I hope that eventually he works his way up to main closer as both Hennessey and Taschner are still young and relatively inexperienced, and will have their ups and downs. And I think the two of them have done very well in the setup role this month, so it would be nice to continue that.

Giants in June

As the Chinese proverb (really more of a curse) sort of goes, "we live in interesting times." I still like the team as is - of course a better reliever and hitter would be great, as Lefty Malo is agitating for, but I'm realistic enough to know that getting one will cost us a good prospect and I would rather hold onto what we got right now.

he offense will be better once we get back Durham and if Klesko can play regularly against RHP. They are important parts of our offense, else there is only really Winn, Bonds, and Molina to count on, that's why the offense has been sputtering (oh yeah, plus Aurilia's struggles). That's why I think we should have a good month of June, Durham and Klesko will return to the lineup and we should start winning games like today when Cain struggled but then held the fort at 4 runs for 7 total innings. He should have gotten at least a no-decision.

It is still as I noted before the season, enjoy how well our pitching rotation pitches, and hope for the offense to deliver enough runs to win the well pitched games. Oh, and it wouldn't hurt to pray for our position prospects to show something this season so that we can maybe use them next season.

Tell Me Something I Didn't Know: Ortiz to Return to Bullpen

The Giants have announced that Ortiz will be coming back to the major league roster in the bullpen. Which is not surprising given how well Lincecum has been doing in the majors and, before that, the minors. As I've been beating the drums on, this helps the Giants bullpen greatly by adding another experienced arm in there, particularly one with closer experience, so perhaps he can beef up the setup situation - not that Hennessey hasn't been very good in that role, but rather that now we should have two very good options to go to in those situations.

However, his role is up in the air right now, could be long relief, could be other situations, according to the article. I think it's going to be like April when Bochy was trying to figure how where everyone's strengths and weaknesses are, and how they respond to certain roles. Ortiz will find himself doing everything, long, short, middle, setup, perhaps even close if Benitez has been used often. As I noted, I hope for him to assert a strong role in the bullpen, perhaps even usurping Hennessey's role.

If he can do that, then he might become the closer we were looking for in spring to take it away from Benitez. I'm hoping the skills he showed before as closer will come to the fore now and he can "close" in setup situations and occassionally in actual closing situations. This would give the Giants an option in case they decide that they want to trade away Benitez - to get something for all the trouble he has caused to the franchise - when there are some desperate teams looking for bullpen help (and you know there will be a number of them) - and maybe pick up a good bat somewhere.

It would also give us an option to go to looking forward should Wilson continue to struggle with his control in AAA Fresno, because there's no way in hell Benitez should be re-signed. But then what do we do for closer if Wilson is not ready? Hennessey has been nice, but I don't look at him right now and think "closer!" And I know Giants fans probably think the same about Ortiz and his penchant to walk guys, but at least he's been in the closer's role before, been very successful doing that, is known to the organization, and should be cheap again next season because the D-backs are still on the hook for $6-7M for the 2008 season, if I remember right.

Who Can It Be Now?

The Giants is being coy about what would happen once Ortiz returns because that will result in someone being sent down. The most obvious choice to me is to send Sanchez back down and become the starter that he should be, so that he can be ready to compete for a starting role next season - or perhaps prove that he belongs in the bullpen. Either way, he hasn't been doing that well in the bullpen up here anyhow.

If the Giants were to go in another direction, there are really only two choices that I can see among the position players: Ortmeier and Frandsen. Given all the blab about how Frandsen was going to come back up quickly and get a lot more play, plus Durham's and Aurilia's recent minor ache and pain that kept them out of the lineup, it would seem that it would not make sense to send back Frandsen.

Meanwhile, Ortmeier is replaceable on the roster. Sweeney and Klesko can play LF, Winn and Lewis can play CF and RF, plus we have already seen Sweeney take RF this season, have seen Feliz in RF a couple of years ago, plus have seen Frandsen take a game or two in the OF as well. Plus Durham could probably do a game in CF without problems as well, people have been talking about how he should be a CF since before he joined the Giants.

Also, look at how little he has been used since both he and Lewis joined the team. Of course, Lewis's hot streak probably has a lot to do with that, but Ortmeier also came up and hit the ground hitting as well. But he still sat, even though there has been a number of LHP starters that Lewis could have been sat down for and allow Ortmeier a turn in RF. So Ortmeier looks like the most logical choice among the position players to send down.

Given the innings the bullpen has been throwing recently, it would seem to make sense to send down Ortmeier, particularly with all the other possible OFs who could play in a pinch and the lack of usage he has been experiencing when Lewis could have sat a game or two to allow Ortmeier an opportunity. But Lewis has grasped the golden opportunity and rung the bell.

I still would prefer to send Sanchez down now. There's still around 3 months left in the minor league season, so he can ramp up his innings pitched and get his arm into starter mode. Also, this stops the ticking on his major league service, so that we don't waste it on bad relief outings and instead on good starts 2008 and beyond. This gives Ortiz more opportunity to throw in the bullpen, as there would be one less option.

Why I Like Ortmeier

Also, I like Ortmeier. As recently as one year ago, he was still considered a prospect who could be a starting corner OF. I believe that playing in Dodd Stadium for the Connecticut Defenders has screwed around with his confidence and that, given time, could return to that state in which he was a good prospect. I think if he can get some extended play in the majors, much like the Giants were going to do for Linden this year, he can become that player again. After all, there must have been something there that Bonds liked a lot for him to help him out in spring training (beyond a photo-op; I don't see Bonds doing something like that to court favor, otherwise he would have kissed up to reporters long ago) when he could have helped out other prospects but didn't.

And what's there not to like? He has double-digit power and, more importantly, he has basepath smarts, which he has converted into a lot of steals, unusual for a big man like him, he could get double-digits in steals as a starter. Thus he would give the Giants a stolen base threat on the bench, which we currently don't have with Klesko, Sweeney, Frandsen, and Alfonzo on the bench (and Linden previously). Thus he would be ideal as Bonds's designated pinch-runner/defensive replacement, then throw him a few bones by giving him starts when Bonds rests.

Like Linden, he was mainly a corner OF but once the Giants started thinking of him as a utility guy, he started getting starts in CF in AAA, and thus could play all OF positions. And he's a switch-hitter too, so he would be useful in pinch-hitting assignments. Besides, once Roberts returns from the DL, he's a platoon guy but Fred Lewis bats left so he would not make sense as a guy to get starts when there is a LHP; however, Ortmeier would. So why not keep him up and get him acclimated to the 5th OF role that Linden was suppose to occupy?

Aurila vs. Klesko and the Closer Situation

I've been doing most of my lurking in recent months at El Lefty Malo and thought I would post some stuff here that I had posted there today.

Aurilia vs. Klesko

Someone complained about Bochy playing Aurilia too much over Klesko. So I posted my reply:

I would give Bochy the benefit of the doubt regarding Aurilia/Klesko. Frankly, Klesko was weak hitting until recently and even now he's not hit for much power.

He hit .282/.333/.359/.692 in April and thus didn't see as many games as we might have hoped for, but had put the heat on this month and gotten more play. He is hitting an OK .333/.419/.444/.864 in May thus far.

But still only a 111 ISO for the month, which is very little power. And that's the role we were mainly looking from him, though his high career OBP looks good in replacement of Bonds.

Aurilia, on the other hand, started out very hot, his OPS was in the 800's and reached 908 on April 19, but then cooled off since then. Still, he still has 12 XBH to Klesko's puny 4, and the only HR of the pair, in only double the ABs.

Unfortunately, Aurilia has been colder than Finley's bat since his hot streak, so he should start seeing more rest days coming up.

In fact, in 24 games in April, he played in all 24 and maybe started 22 of them (only 2 games with less than 3 PA), whereas in May, he has played in 12 of 14 games, but got 3 PA or more in 9 of them. So he has already been reduced from 22 starts in 24 in April, to 9 starts in 14 in May.

And if his bat continues to be this cold, and Klesko, Feliz (.280/.321/.460/.781 in May), and Frandsen (.471/.500/.647/1.147 since he returned plus two great starts) hot, he's probably going to see even less.

And Klesko has actually been killing LHP, not RHP, which is the reverse of what one should expect of this platoon hitter:

v.LHP: .429/.556/.429/.984
v.RHP: .288/.344/.390/.734

That's a pretty sad performance for a hitter who had killed RHP before, I wish I could see his RHP splits by month to map his progress (or lack thereof). This is a poor sign of future performance, his LHP hitting should go down a lot, and his RHP hitting has been anemic. He needs to boost up his RHP or he could find himself Lindened this season too.

Closers On the Roster

Next, I commented about who would close should Benitez be traded at some point. I also got a dig in on someone who suggested that we do the Papelbon in Boston thing with Lincecum:

Who let the Dodger/A's fan in here? Lincecum's no closer!!! He starts!!!

I think the best short-term option is Russ Ortiz. He was a closer while coming up our system and I think he closed in college too. That was a long time ago, but I don't think that should matter, should be like riding a bike in terms of attitude and personality for it.

Whether he still has the stuff he had then is the matter, and he claims that he's got it back, and the Giants evidently believe that too, so put him there if he's not starting, seems like a good reward for playing down his Wally Pipp role with Lincecum, and being classy about it.

The best long term on the roster in the pen is probably Hennessey once he gets used to it. Let him set up this year, then Ortiz will go free agent and maybe leave, and Hennessey would be first in line for it. But he would have to fight off Correia, Sadler, and whoever else looks good in spring. And should Ortiz fail in his try, then these guys will be battling for that opportunity, should it present itself.

I like Misch too. I think all the pitchers down below get chances to save, seems like every starter in Augusta has a save. He probably don't get many opps, if any, to save, with Wilson and Sadler there, but he's doing so well, I would just put him in there and see what he can do.

Addendum

By roster, I assume the premise was who would the Giants chose right now based on the stats right now. No one in the minors are really doing that well except for Misch, among the usual suspects (Sadler, Wilson, Valdez - and he's not even back pitching yet, as far as I know).

And by long term, I think Hennessey has shown the most as of right now. I still hope that Wilson fulfills his potential as was projected for him, and become the closer of the future for us, much like Accardo is doing it in Toronto, sadly, or Aardsma in Chicago, but he's still giving up too many walks in AAA.

Yeah, Aardsma and Accardo are doing well in their new homes. I still think that the Giants had to do those moves at the time, to boost their still alive chances to make the playoffs. Hawkins pitched well for us while he was with us, and Kline, who we got for him, has been good as well. Williams, meanwhile, has bounced from organization to organization, and was in the starting 5 for the Nats this season, but just went on the DL, which is just as well, he was doing pretty crappy from what I remember. Aardsma has been doing nicely for the ChiSox, but it took him around 3 years to figure things out and meanwhile we've gotten good performances out of Hawkins and Kline (plus Lincecum's immortal words, "Take off your sweater next time," when Kline came up - nude - and gave a big bear hug to Tim while reporters were interviewing him after his first career win).

Hillenbrand was a horrible addition and it hurts from that standpoint in trading away Accardo. But you have to give to get and Hillenbrand is a professional hitter so the concept of getting him was the right concept for us at the time because 1B was killing us offensively, and while Hillebrand was not the greatest hitter, his career differential (and season) over our 1B choices was significant enough to take the leap. Not every trade is going to work out great, if you don't take any risks, you cannot never get the rewards (Kent, Burks, Schmidt).

However, the trade worked for us in that Chulk is still around and he has been a good reliever for us. While he's not the closer material that Accardo was and is, the point is that he is a perfectly good reliever, good enough to earn first chance at the setup position before blowing it but he's been good since. So at least we still have something to show for losing Accardo, Chulk mitigated the risk of losing Accardo for Hillenbrand so that if we lost Hillenbrand, it was not a total loss, like it was in the trade with Minnesota (another trade good in concept).

Still, the point of the trades is also that even a farm system as maligned as the Giants can keep producing viable relief prospects to replace the ones traded away. Perhaps not as good as the ones traded away - that is yet to be seen, Wilson was much more successful and quicker in the minors coming up than Aardsma or Accardo, plus there was the expectation that Valdez would be coming up soon - but the Giants have a bullpen full of players they drafted and developed plus two - Kline and Chulk - who they got trading other bullpen prospects. Only Benitez is not somehow related to the Giants' farm system.

Bochy Ball

The questioning of Bochy's usage of Aurila and Klesko got me thinking about how Bochy has been doing as manager of the Giants. I've been pretty happy with him thus far. Don't really have many things I can complain bitterly about.

As noted, I think he has been handling the Aurilia/Klesko situation well. I also liked how he sat Feliz down and been playing Aurilia at 3B, until Feliz started hitting. Hopefully Frandsen will get some starts at 3B too.

Speaking of Franny, that's one thing I wished he did better and allowed Frandsen more playing time at the beginning of the season. However, I understand why things went down the way it did. I think Bochy wanted to see how the vets played first, this being his first season with them. It is one thing to look at their stats and see them from the other dugout, another to spend every day with them and dealing with them. Thus Frandsen probably wasn't going to be seeing much time early on.

Normally, this would mean leaving Frandsen in the minors and having someone else on the roster. But in recognition of Frandsen's future with the team, Bochy kept him on the team and let him experience opening day and home opening day. Then they sent him down since he got rusty, get his confidence back with some swell hitting, and brough him back with the intention so use him more, now that Bochy has a better feel for his vets.

Like Feliz. I was impressed that he embarrassed Feliz in front of everyone and pitched batting practice to him and yelling at him to hit to the other side and yelling at him like he was a freaking little leaguer, learning how to hit. Then he benched Feliz a few times, playing Klesko at 1B and Aurilia at 3B. Unbelievably, Feliz has responded to Bochy, after a cold April where he hit .236/.257/.486/.743 with 14 K/2 BB in 72 AB, during May he is hitting .280/.321/.460/.781 with, incredibly, 3 K/3 BB in 50 AB.

Here's the perspective on his achievement this month so far (still only half over). In 22 months of at least 50 AB in the month, excluding this month (meaning out of 21 months), there has only been 1 month out of the 21 where he had less than 10 strikeouts, his first month with over 50 AB when he had 9 strikeouts. He only has 3 this month!!!. In contrast, he has had 15 out of 21 months where he had 15 or more strikeouts, and a number of them over 20.

Then there is the bullpen. Bochy came in with a reputation of creating these wonderful bullpens, of getting these nondescript pitchers who didn't do much of anything before and getting them to perform well. The classic example of this was Cla Meredith, who the 'Dres got last season as a throw in when they traded Mirabelli to the Red Sox. He was lights out and great, pitching for Bochy.

This season, the bullpen went into the season highly maligned, with our best hope for performance, Brian Wilson, sent down to AAA due to poor performance in spring training when he was pretty much guaranteed a spot in the bullpen and was in the running to become either setup man or closer if he did well enough (if he did well, I suspect the Giants might have traded Benitez; that can still happen just before the trade deadline if Benitez is pitching well enough and enough of our bullpen was performing well enough to have candidates for closer). I was one of the few who thought our bullpen would be OK, but I will admit I had my moments when I wondered too. But they have come through for the most part:

• Hennessey: 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .247 BAA, 77% inherited left on (10/13);
• Benitez: 3.55 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .245 BAA, 40% left on (2/5);
• Kline: 3.72 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .341 BAA, 89% left on (8/9);
• Chulk: 3.78 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .297 BAA, 40% left on (4/10);
• Taschner: 3.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .179 BAA, 69% left on (11/16);
• Correia: 4.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .209 BAA, 33% left on (1/3);
• Sanchez: 5.68 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, .286 BAA, 50% left on (2/4);
• Overall: 3.82 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 63% left on (38/60).

Not great, not very good, but good enough and definitely not the disaster that most people envisioned for the bullpen at the beginning of the season. All the guys are settling into their roles now and getting comfortable, though things will get disturbed if the Giants decide to keep Lincecum up as a starter - his start on Thursday will probably greatly influence the Giants in their decision. If he continues to start, then Ortiz would go into the bullpen and most probably would replace Jonathan Sanchez, who has not pitched that well overall, though he is 5th overall among NL relievers with 11.7 K/9 and has a 3.18 ERA over his last 11 outings.

I have to think that the Giants will keep Lincecum around in almost any circumstances, other than getting totally blown out and looking like a total rookie. Even if he has a middling start, he has nothing to prove in AAA and Ortiz has already shown publicly that he can accept going to the bullpen if Lincecum is starting. Plus, Ortiz is an experienced bullpen guy and if he really has his stuff back, as he says it has, then he should be even better in relief for us, in long relief and potentially in setup and closing situations because he was a closer while coming up through our farm system.

So Bochy has done a good job thus far with the bullpen, both numbers and handling. He has left in pitchers so that he was not going strictly L/L or R/R no matter what. He has allowed Taschner to take on RHH and is open to having Benitez come in the 8th and pitching over an inning. This shows confidence in the relievers and puts less stress on them by not having them come into the game just for a batter and warming up every game. The pitchers have responded by pitching to their capabilities, they are all around what their career numbers would tell you, maybe a little better.

This is a huge difference over how Alou handled the bullpen and it appears to be working better. And yet Bochy does not shy away from using relievers, his usage of relievers are up there among the league leaders in the NL, but his handling of them does not appear to burn them out like Felipe did. And the bullpen has been very positive in their statements over how Bochy has been handling them, without knocking Alou. However, Krukow, in his morning show, while not criticizing Alou, per se, noting that it is just a matter of differing managerial styles, did say that he likes the way Bochy handles the bullpen and thinks that things are now better for the relievers in terms of stress on their arms.

Lincecum is Near, Best Time of Year...

According to this breaking news from the Chron, Russ Ortiz has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with neuritis in his pitching elbow and Kevin Frandsen has been called up to take his roster spot. However, they have not announced who will start in Ortiz's place in the rotation Sunday, which also happens to be ESPN's nationally televised game.

Who Else Giants Gonna Call?

But who else but Lincecum should get the call? Hennessey is settling into the setup role. Sanchez hasn't really been prepared to start. That leaves the minors and there's only one choice there: Lincecum.

And what a grand cosmic coincidence that Ortiz's spot in the rotation happened to be the ESPN game and now Lincecum's first start will be televised to the nation. Giants fans across the nation - heck world - who has access to ESPN will be able to see him pitch. Can't get a bigger stage than that for your first major league game. I assume his dad will be coming down for the game, his dad must be thrilled with this development plus it's on the weekend, so he won't have to miss work. And Tim will be facing the Phil's great young starter too, Cole Hamels, so it'll be the battle of the great young pitchers too, as a sub-text to the game.

It is hard not to be giddy about how Lincecum will do as a Giant in the majors, given all that he has done in the minors, but even Hughes did poorly in his first start for the Yankees and he was rated higher than Lincecum coming into this season. However, Hughes did no-hit his next game (no pressure Tim!).

Ortiz Probably Lost His Starting Spot

Assuming he does welll enough, it looks like Lincecum might Wally Pipp Ortiz out of the starting rotation and into the bullpen, which would probably push Sanchez back to start in AAA and become the 1st choice starter out of the minors.

And this makes a lot of sense. If Ortiz is having neuritis in his pitching elbow so soon in the season (warning, not a doctor or medical expert), it just seems logical that he should not really pitch a lot this season or it would flare up again. Putting him in the bullpen would reduce the stress on his pitching elbow and add, hopefully, a quality arm to the bullpen, not that Sanchez wasn't.

Sanchez, Not Chulk

Speaking of Sanchez, I had forgotten that Sanchez is another choice to drop out of the bullpen when I was thinking that Chulk would be the logical person to drop based on performance in my other post - he's still the logical one based on poor performance, but Sanchez is the logical one to go down since starting is where the Giants see his future as, and there is no one close to Lincecum or Sanchez in the farm system in terms of being near major league ready to start, in terms of talent and skill.

Sabean had seen the error of not having good replacements ready to step up and has populated his roster with players who can play multiple positions and could start if necessary. So he added players like Aurilia, Fransen, and Klesko to the roster/bench this season. If Lincecum is in the Giants rotation, then there's Ortiz in the bullpen as one possible replacement - however the neuritis! - and there's no clear go-to guy in the minors right now unless they send Sanchez back down to start in the minors and be ready.

Go Giants!!!

Ortiz Looks to Get Lincecumed Soon

I was going to write up the data I had compiled on PQS for April 2007 that I had covered last season, but I think the more relevant thing now is whether Lincecum will get called up soon and whom would he replace. Based on PQS, the only starter until tonight to have a Disaster game was Matt Morris. But Ortiz just had a monsterly bad game. Zito, even when he was being battered early, showed enough sabermetrically that they were not considered badly pitched games - sometimes bad luck results in a lot of earned runs. It happens.

However, Ortiz is the first to have a 0 PQS start, with less than 5 IP thrown. And he and Morris are the only starters to have a disaster start and the lowest average PQS of the group by far: Zito 3.0 PQS; Cain 3.6 PQS; Lowry 3.2 PQS; Morris 2.6 PQS; and Ortiz 2.0 PQS. Plus, his starts have gotten worse over time, with his second start looking like the aberration, not the norm.

Ortiz's Main Virtue - Less Hits - Is Not There

The frightening thing is that Ortiz main competitive advantage during his career was his ability to keep opposing teams from getting hits on balls in play. Unfortunately, his BABIP this season is .350 right now, though Fangraphs show his FIP as 3.78 probably based on that high rate. However, part of the reason why .300 BABIP is the mean that pitchers regress to is that pitchers who cannot get it down that low get replaced by better pitchers, generally.

So Who You Gonna Call? Tim Lincecum!

And right now, there is no better pitcher than Tim Lincecum cooling his heels in the minors. In his last start last Sunday, in 6 IP, 86 pitches, 3 hits, 0 walks, 0 runs/ER, 16 strikeouts. That's 76% of the batters he faced. Since the start of the season, 31 IP, 12 hits, 11 walks, 46 strikeouts (13.4 K/9), 1 ER for 0.29 ERA.

Over his short pro career: 62.2 IP in 13 games, 26 hits, 7 ER, 3 HR, 23 BB, 104 K's, 0.78 WHIP, 1.01 ERA. Per inning rates: 14.9 K/9; 3.30 BB/9; 4.52 K/BB; 0.43 HR/9; .240 BABIP. Scary good, eh?

Irresistible Force Against a Very Movable Object

While Ortiz was a feel good story for Spring Training and the early part of the season, unfortunately, he has not really shown much except for that second game. And it is not that he is really pitching that poorly, at least until today's game, it is just that he's not pitching that particularly well either. The odd thing is that the reason his ERA until today's game was decent was because he was keeping his walks down, his rate is still only 2.76 BB/9 after today's debacle, and his HR rate, which is now high. But everything else is not looking so good, he has a very low K/9, high HR/9 rate, though oddly his K/BB is good at 2.00, but even that cannot combat a low K/9 rate combined with a high BABIP.

If he does not start pitching much better over his next 2-3 starts, taking the season into mid-to-late May, he will find himself pushed aside for Lincecum, because there's no reason to keep Tim down there the way he is pitching, he is just embarrassing the other teams right now. I think if Ortiz can still pitch respectably, the Giants might be able to trade him to another team for a low level prospect, much like the trade of Michael Tucker for Kelvin Pichardo a couple of years ago. After all, there was still a market for Sidney Ponson, Jeff Weaver, and other pretty sad starting pitchers this past off-season, so Ortiz should be able to fetch a nice prospect from another team.

But he also might end up pushing someone out of the bullpen as he was a long time closer in our farm system before being brought up as a starter. Vinnie Chulk, unfortunately has not been doing as well as I (and the Giants) thought he might. He was the initial go-to guy for setup duties at the start of the season, though Bochy has purposefully kept most roles fluid until naming Hennessey the main setup guy either yesterday or today, in an article on the Giants website.

But, like Ortiz, he has had his good points and his bad points, his good games and his bad games, and if there were no alternatives, both would probably not be on the firing line. However, the dominos start with Lincecum and both Ortiz and Chulk could fall from him coming up. They are pitching for their major league roster spots right now. Russ, especially, must turn things around if he still wants to stay in the majors, whether here or somewhere else, as a starter or a reliever. At the rate he is going, he's not going to displace Chulk from the bullpen, but if he can at least pitch decently enough, he might be able to grab Chulk's spot.

And that's assuming that there is spot to grab. Bochy has been openingly saying that Frandsen will be brought up soon (he's hitting over .400 after all) and that it might be accomplished by going with an 11 main pitching staff, instead of the current 12. The next couple of weeks will be critical for determining what happens next for these players.

Russ Ortiz's Mechanics Improvement Explained

Carlos Gomez has another analysis of a Giants' pitcher's mechanics up again - if you will recall, he covered Matt Cain's and Tim Lincecum's mechanics, in full, just a little while ago - and this time he tackles Russ Ortiz, and while not fully, it is, more importantly, about the different between last year and this year.

It is pretty cool, Carlos points out the exact different thing that Ortiz is not doing: he is breaking his hands earlier. Now, I have no idea what that means and even after he explains it all, I had no idea, but watching the video over and over again, I finally saw what he meant: his pitching arm cocks much faster last year and, while I took physics I am not totally sure what exactly happens, but it appears that the momentum he creates with his arm cock is dissipated by breaking it earlier, and thus he loses that additional velocity and apparently that caused his cut fastball not to cut anymore, or at least not enough to fool major league hitters. As Carlos notes, his throwing motion "this year seems like it's uninterrupted", which I suppose means that the throwing motion builds up the momentum imparted to the pitched ball, rather than just going along for the ride and losing the momentum that the arm can deliver.

But I swear, except for that one little detail, I cannot tell the difference between the two videos. It is incredible to me that just one little detail can be so important to a pitcher. It makes Lincecum's stuff all the more wonderous that he can duplicate that throwing motion over and over again, as even one little detail like this take something away from your velocity as a pitcher. Somebody should give Carlos a job in the professional baseball, this is great stuff, and, you know, it could have been worth, oh, about $22M to the D-backs if they had Carlos around.

I would also note, for long-suffering Giants fans who have a love/hate relationship with Ortiz that if you look at the two videos, Ortiz clearly - though he was never slim - lost a lot of weight between the two videos. I realize that the camera angle might be different and makes Russ looks bigger in the Arizona video, but what I'm referring to is basically how his clothes hang on him, it seems more puffy in the Arizona video than the Giants video.

Ortiz Made the Right Choice

I just had to laugh when I read this quote in the Chron (at the very bottom):

Ortiz said he owns property near Dallas and strongly considered an offer this winter from the Rangers before deciding the Giants were a better fit.

Let's use the Cone of Silence and take a look at how his decision might have looked like...






"...Hmmm, would you believe, I want to pitch in Arlington, one of the best hitter's parks in the majors, just so that I can be near one of my properties? OK, would you believe, I would rather pitch in SF, at worse a neutral park for pitchers, but was a severe pitchers park when I was pitching there, plus my wife and I were comfortable there when I was with the team?..."

I guessed he made the right choice, and loving it! (Thus far)

"I asked you not to tell me that!" - Ron Washington

"Sorry about that, Chief!"

Giants To Sign Cain to Similar Deal to Lowry (plus Big Mo talks!)

The Giants are about to sign Cain to a deal similar to Lowry, according to reports, which I think is great, because I thought Cain could ask for a lot more in this post and the deal would still make sense for the Giants to do. It sounds like it was pending a physical that he went through last night and so the deal should get announced today sometime. Hurray and huzzah!

Per my post, I still think the Giants could have went further, though perhaps Cain's agents didn't want to go that far. Lowry's deal was for $9.25M over 4 years with a $6.25M club option, which covers all the years that the Giants control their players. According to Cot's Contracts, bonuses may increase the total value of the extension to $17M plus escalators may increase the club option to $7.75M, for a total of about $25M. An middle rotation pitcher is going for around $9-10M today, so that's paying about 2.5 seasons worth of average pitching over a 5 year period, less once you factor in player salary inflation. The should have been able to buy out his first free agent year for $10-12M.

Yes, I know young pitchers can fizzle out, TINSTAAPP, and all that, plus there is the injury factor as well. Things aren't working out so well for the Cubs with Mike Prior and Kerry Wood. But here's how I see it work out, scenario-wise:

• Cain bad: none of the escalators/bonuses kick in, we just need 2 average years out of 5 for the deal to still work out at the market price for pitchers.
• Cain good: he will be worth every penny in escalators/bonuses, plus we have him for 5 years plus option instead of 4 years plus option.
• Cain ace good: bargain of the century.

There is very little risk involved for the Giants to just guarantee that $6.25M option in exchange for another year added to the contract and push into his free agent years. That's taking a $6.25M bet add-on bet that Cain can be better than average during the life of the contract. It's a bet I would have taken.

Bengie Speaks!

The KNBR morning show interviewed Bengie Molina this morning and he sounded like a nice guy. He impressed me by stating that he couldn't get to sleep last night because today is his first game as a San Francisco Giant - I did that when I got my present job, I was out of work for an extended period trying to switch careers and I thought I would have to give up the dream when the job came out of the blue. I was up all night, but the day just flew and I even worked past 8 hours and never felt tired at all (today, it's a totally different situation! :^)

The more important part, since much of these are usually chit-chat, how's it going type of stuff, was he discussed his impression of Russ Ortiz thus far in spring training. He apparently didn't know the story of how Ortiz's mechanics got out of kilter until Leo Mazzone set him straight in Baltimore - he speculated that perhaps Ortiz had some injury or something, which resulted in his pitching problems last season (that much he was aware of). Then Molina said, basically, that whatever Oritz was going through, he appears to be over it because he looks like the Ortiz he remembers from the 2002 World Series. Ortiz had a 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP that season.

Looking over Russ's stats during that period, he just majorly benefited from pitching in AT&T. His HR rate dropped in half or more while pitching there for his home. And while his walk rate always drove people crazy, his stats actually look very similar to Barry Zito's career: more walks and HR and less strikeouts than what you would care for, but he kept the hit rate very low for balls in play, which enabled him to survive stuff like that. If he can even get his ERA in the mid-4's, that would be a huge plus for the rotation and the team, over other teams who have crap for their 5th starter.

Because that's the beauty of the Giants as constructed for 2007: all the players are above average (or are capable of above average), but not elite players, up and down the lineup and pitching rotation, for the most part, except for Bonds and (hopefully) Cain. Most teams have multiple holes in the lineup, a poor #5 starter (plus possibly a poor #4 too), but the Giants are solid up and down, plus have backups who are not terrible replacements (like Vizcaino and Greene was last season), should a regular go down (Klesko, Linden, Alfonzo, Frandsen for position players, Sanchez, Hennessey, and Lincecum for starting pitchers, Sadler, Threets, and Anderson for relief). There is depth and the step down in talent from the first string to the next is not that great a drop, unless you lose a big guy.

Lincecum Invited to Spring Training; Ortiz Coming Home Too

The Giants announced today that Tim Lincecum, among others, has been invited to spring training. This was an expected development since he totally dominated in the lower minors last season and many scouts felt that he could have pitched in the majors last season.

Other notables include:

• Tyler Walker: still rehabbing from his Tommy John surgery, he could be ready to play by mid to late season, judging from past surgeries, it seems to take a year before they starting playing regularly again.
• Damian Moss: Lefty starter we got in Ortiz trade and traded away in Ponson trade. I guess he figured out what his problems were, but he's 30 now.
• Justin Hedrick: good RHP reliever
• Todd Jennings: catcher who I thought was playing 3B
• Chad Santos: 1B who came up and played well briefly for us, home is Hawaii
• Brian Horwitz: OF who led his leagues in hitting first two seasons with us, I don't think he reached such heights this past season, but a good hitter, just not for much power.
• Eddy Martinez-Esteve: Probably the best hitter currently in the Giants minor league system (Villalona should eventually pass him up but it is too much to hope that Angel is currently our best hitter, i.e. if you put both in the majors today, who would hit better)
• Clay Timpner: Seems to be the latest in the tradition of all glove, no bat CF, from Darren Lewis to Calvin Murray.

The other invitees are RHP Scott Atchison, David Cortes, Daniel Giese, Carlos Hines, Matt Palmer, and Mitch Wylie; LHP Ryan Meaux; C Stephen Holm and Guillermo Rodriguez; IF William Bergolla, Julio Cordido, Tomas De La Rosa, Luis Figueroa, Justin Leone, Scott McClain, and Ivan Ochoa.

Now We Have Them All

Today, the Giants announced that they have resigned Russ Ortiz to a one year contract and will give him the chance to win the 5th spot in the rotation. Apparently he lost his way mechanically and finally fixed it while in the bullpen with Baltimore last seasons, then continued to improve while pitching in Winter League, in Puerto Rico. He's looking to start but knows that he just needs a spot in the majors first. He'll be battling Hennessey and Sanchez for the final spot.

Apparently, he figured out his problems but still couldn't pitch really well. His ERA by month with the Orioles: 11.57, 6.92, 5.73. However, his peripherals looked good, mostly, his last month, so that's something: 11 IP, 13 H, 4 BB, 10 SO, however, he gave up 5 HR, which ruined everything else. One step at a time, I guess and he's only 32 according to the article. Plus HR are reduced in SF.

Now we have everyone from that trade: Russ Ortiz, Damian Moss, and Merkin Valdez.