Brew Crew Beat On
The Giants had a disappointing series with the Brewers - though with better closing we could have won the series, but Wilson has been very good up to now, so this is quibbling - but there were a number of good things to note.
First and foremost is Schierholtz's hot hitting. He looks like he might have Wally Pipped Fred Lewis for an OF starting position. In the 3 games series, he went 7 for 13 with a double and homer plus a homer stolen over the fence by Cameron, for a .538/.571/.846/1.418 batting line. Since he began starting regularly on June 11th, his batting line is .426/.451/.681/1.132 with 3 HR in 47 AB (again, remember, he should have had a 4th homer), starting in 12 games out of 17 (and playing in 16). It is something like this that makes me wish all the harder that the Giants had done what I have been advocating for the past two off-seasons: trade away Randy Winn so that Nate Schierholtz can start for us and be the power hitter that we have been lacking.
Second, and just as hot if not hotter, is Pablo Sandoval. Despite leaving yesterday's game early for a stomach ailment, he was 5 for 11 in the series with 3 HR, for a Bondsian batting line of .455/.500/1.364/1.864. Since the second game on June 4th, he has a batting line of .422/.489/.819/1.309 with 8 HR in 83 AB. Clearly, his power has started coming through once he figured out how to hit pitchers consistently.
The two of them join Travis Ishikawa, who has been hot since Bochy openly benched him for all of one day on May 10th. Since May 10th, Ishikawa hit .320/.400/.520/.920 with 4 HR in 75 AB. And for the month of June, he has hit .250/.289/.556/.845 with 3 HR in 36 AB.
So, yes, between the three of them, they have hit 14 HR in the month June (and would have 15 if not for Cameron). If they can continue hitting HR's, the Giants don't look like they will be so puny with homerun hitting for the rest of the season, particularly including Molina.
Thirdly, I forgot to note before that Rich Aurilia has been hitting better of late, he had a nice streak from May 15 to June 16, where he hit .282/.349/.410/.759, before an 0-fer brought him down on June 20th, but then he had a 2-for-5 on June 24th. People have been wanting to drop him, but unfortunately Richie has been distracted by thoughts of his father, who has had serious health problems for years now, but finally succumbed to them recently, as his health failed.
Fourth, I was impressed with how the Giants came back the next day to not only play well, but win, after such a devastating loss as they had gone through on Saturday. Many teams get sucker-punched by such a tough loss, and the aftermath is a lackluster game the next day. It is a sign of maturity and confidence that they shrugged off the loss and won going away the next day.
Lastly, I have to note Ryan Sadowski's masterful first start in the majors on Sunday. Against the powerful Brewers team that had just battered our pitching the day before, costing us two good leads and taking the victory away from the Giants, Sadowski, a good organizational soldier who was rumored to be soon sold to a Japanese league team, shut out the Brewers for 6 innings, giving up only 4 hits, plus 3 walks and striking out two, including the first batter of the game, his first batter of his major league career. He also got his first major league hit as well as his first major league win. All in a start that he didn't even know about until Friday when his AAA manager informed him of it.
According to what I learned from the radio, it has been quite a trip for Sadowski. When he was drafted by the Giants, he had not played any baseball for three years in college. He held a tryout for scouts - Tidrow was there - and based on that the Giants drafted him in the 12th round. He has never been a prospect that drew a lot of interest - heck, any interest - from the prospect hounds who know about such stuff. He has been what people call a good organizational player, a guy who is filling a spot on the minor league team so that our better prospects would have a team to play on as they progress up the minors to the majors. Only sometimes the dream comes true for these players, like Matt Palmer (and many others) last season, Brian Cooper a few years back, etc.
He got this opportunity because the Giants decided to skip Jonathan Sanchez's spot in the rotation in order to work with him and get his head and mechanics straight. Like it did with Matt Cain and Barry Zito, and with Lincecum, the threat of one, that got the pitcher off the treadmill, running in the same direction, and gave him a moment to reflect and go off on another direction. Sanchez came into the game in relief for the 9th inning and, after plunking Prince Fielder with a wild pitch into his wide side, Sanchez struck out the side. Fielder was mad but I can understand if Sanchez was a bit wild with his first pitch, after all, that is why he got sat down in the first place, and second, it being his first pitch, his adrenaline could have gotten the best of him there as well.
Now the interesting question is what to do next. It would seem a shame to send Sadowski back down, especially after his shutout outing, but with Aurilia gone on bereavement, it would appear that the Giants should swap Frandsen for Sadowski to beef up the bench for the series against the Cardinals, particularly with how well Sanchez pitched, he was dominating, from what I heard on the radio.
In addition, despite hitting his first major league homerun yesterday, Matt Downs has been scuffling. He has hit .212/.289/.333/.623 in 10 games, 33 AB and 8 strikeouts with that one homer. The good point is that his BABIP is .240, so perhaps if he can boost it up to .300, his batting line would be OK, but every hitter's BABIP is individual, there is not a mean around which he should regress to other than his career BABIP, and that hasn't been established for him yet. But since hitting is considered his forte, that would suggest that with enough time, he can eventually hit well in the majors.
However, the Giants are trying to balance winning with developing their young players. They have given him a chance because Burriss blew his and Frandsen was caught in between the period when he could not be brought up, opening up an opportunity for Downs. So the Giants will have to decide whether to give him more time or to finally give Frandsen his opportunity to start at 2B. Given that Downs started out OK then has been dropping the past two series, they could decide to bring up Frandsen to start, putting Downs on the bench until Aurilia returns.
Cards Series
The Cards are always tough and Pujols has been very hot. It's going to be a tough series, but we got our four best starters going against them, starting with Lincecum. I think that the Giants viewed the Cards as their main competition to beat because they could have started Lincecum against the Brewers in the last game of the series, but instead chose to call up Sadowski and allow Lincecum to be the first starter against the Cards.
Game 1: Lincecum vs. Brad Thompson.
Just inserted in the rotation about a month ago, he has had some pretty bad starts. Plus, he hasn't been particularly good in the majors previous to his season, though better this season. I would say that he's a good back of the rotation guy, but he's going against our #1 guy, and thus we should win this game. Lincecum is 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts against the Cards, and has been just dominating the past three starts.
Game 2: Johnson vs. Chris Carpenter
Another reason not to muck with the order of the rotation is because then we pit Randy Johnson against Chris Carpenter, instead of having Cain face Carpenter. Not that Wainwright is a piece of cake, but Carpenter has been totally dominating since he got off the DL. Johnson has been pitching better of late, whereas Cain had his first bad start in almost two months in his last start. Also, Johnson, I think, will raise his level of play to match Carpenter, the greats ones can still do that for one start every so often, even at Johnson's age. We most probably will lose but it should be a good game where Johnson also have a good chance of winning.
Game 3: Cain vs. Adam Wainwright
Cain had a tough outing, but Wainwright has had a number of rough outings in his 3 of his last 4 starts, 4 of his last 6. I think that this is a good matchup of roughly equal pitchers, but I think that Cain will come out on top of this one, I think the last start is an aberration, he really seems to have turned the corner from being good to being great. This game will be a great test of that, whether he can turn it on and beat the Cards.
Game 4: Zito vs. Wellemeyer
Another reason why we don't muck with the rotation order: Zito vs. Wainwright would probably be a losing proposition. Zito vs. Wellemeyer, however, looks pretty good. Wellemeyer has a 5.68 ERA with only 55 strikeouts in 88.2 IP, but 40 walks!!! Plus 111 hits!!! Zito better beat Wellemeyer, it would be very disappointing if he doesn't beat him, though I understand that that happens sometimes.
Giants Thoughts
This series can swing from very good to very bad, depending on how things go with the starting pitching. I think a split is a very good possibility, what with games 1 and 4 looking like good bets, and I would take that easily, as that would make our road trip an almost even split, with us losing 2 of 3 at Milwaukee (I can't count Oakland as a road trip). With Houston (35-38), Florida (38-39) and San Diego (33-41) as opponents at home just before the All Star break, the Giants could boost up their record a bit at home, where they have one of the best records in the majors playing at home, assuming they can get out of St. Louis relatively unscathed.
With three hot hitters in Schierholtz, Sandoval, and Ishikawa, plus Rowand doing well himself, and Molina doing OK, the offense could be good enough up top to help our pitching win in this series. The lineup will be Rowand, Winn, Sandoval, Molina, Schierholtz, Renteria, Ishikawa, Uribe, and that would be pretty good given how well they have been hitting of late. And the Cards are throwing up all RHP, so our lefties should see starts the whole series. I think that given Winn's struggles of late, I can see Bochy sitting him down once, and give Lewis a start.
With game time coming up, it looks like the Giants are not making any roster moves, meaning that Sadowski and Downs will get another chance to impress the team's management. Sadowski will, for sure, because there is no reason to keep him up unless they are planning to give him another start. And that appears to be so, Andy Baggarly just reported that Bochy says that Sadowski is officially in the rotation.
With Uribe starting at 2B in today's lineup, Downs apparently has worn out some of his welcome - Giants facing untested struggling starter today, usually an excellent spot for a prospect like Downs to start, particularly batting 8th where Uribe is today. And apparently Frandsen has not done enough to warrant starting up in the majors. Apparently, since the Cards only have a four man bench, the Giants think they can get away with that too. I think that is easier for the Cards because they have such a good lineup - we don't.
With Sadowski annointed to be in the rotation, that would mean that Sanchez would be in the bullpen until at least after the All-Star break, at which time, one would hope he figured out enough to earn back his rotation spot. In addition, that would mean that Downs will probably go down when Aurilia returns and Uribe is our 2B until further notice. The only way this works for me is if this showcases Uribe and someone trades for him, giving us a nice prospect in return, then Frandsen gets to start the rest of the season.
Judging from the interview with a Brewers hitter on TV, it sounded like Sadowski had the upper hand on them because none of them had faced him before, and he first went with one pitch the first time around the lineup, then mixed in another pitch the second time around and adjusted to the hitters. I got the impression that the hitter was not impressed but tipped his hat off to Sadowski because he adjusted when he needed to.
Can he keep hitters off balance once he's a known quality? It was telling that he struck out two batters in his first two innings, but could not get another strikeout for the next four innings. It was also telling that Sadowski only had 45 strikes thrown in 85 pitches. A more discerning lineup could rack up more than the 3 walks he gave up to the Brewers, though neither Florida nor Houston are that great. I say enjoy the ride while you can, because unless he can adjust further, he's going to get hit on pretty quickly, once there are tapes and scouting reports filed on him. But I will hope for the best.
Meanwhile, I have to think that it's Downs who goes down when Aurilia returns. And that probably means Uribe will be starting at 2B, and perhaps Aurilia too, at least until the All Star break. Then the Giants management will re-assess and see what they should do next.
I still hope that give Frandsen a chance. Given all the comments I heard from Bochy earlier this season, I have to think so, they said that he would get his chance, only later, that he had to be patient with the process. And the Giants thought enough of him last season to keep 3B open for him, so since he has hit like normal in AAA this season, and even more importantly, played defense well at SS. So he should get an extended chance sometime this season because he's not getting any younger.
Showing posts with label Rich Aurilia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rich Aurilia. Show all posts
Monday, June 29, 2009
Monday, July 28, 2008
Trade Deadline Talk
I was reading Grant's post on McCovey Chronicles about the Giants trade deadline plans, and I wrote so much that I thought I would post it here too. Grant wonders about Winn and Molina in particularly, Aurilia too, and about how Winn is blocking Schierholtz while doing worse than Schierholtz this season:
Winn Vs. Schierholtz
It depends on whether the Giants believe that the .726 OPS Winn currently carries represent his net future value or the .766 career OPS or .798 OPS he has compiled as a Giants player. If you think he is done (the .726 OPS), then you try to dump him now, throwing cash out and playing Schierholtz. Think of it this way, nobody thought of this earlier in the season when he was hitting better, only when he has been slumping recently, and yet the only real difference between then and now is that Winn is slumping right now. Unless you think he suddenly lost it, there is no reason to think he's not still the roughly .800 OPS hitter he has been for us the past few years. And if you think it's the .798 OPS, then you hold onto Winn because of his better defense and veteran experience, because then he has Nate beat on three counts, offensive, defensive, and intangible leadership.
BTW, that is the trade scenario that Ted Robinson discussed while on Ralph's and Tom's show the other day when he suggested that Winn was horribly overpaid since we could get equivalent production by playing Schierholtz (nevermind the fact that players of his offensive abilties are getting that much and more - hello Gary Mathews Jr. - on the open free agent market). He admonished the Giants for not trading Winn when we got an equivalent or better player (and much younger and cheaper) sitting in AAA.
It also depends on whether you believe that Schierholtz is actually the .778 MLE OPS from this season or the .787 MLE OPS is his 2007 suggests, or if the holes in his swing that scouts and observers have noted about him would expose him in the majors as a AAAA hitter, much like Todd Linden's 2005 .904 MLE OPS didn't really portend anything close to that in the majors. That MLE hasn't really materialized yet, has it?
Not to jinx him, but MLE is not a guarantee, it is an approximation that, while nice for giving you a ballpark estimate of his MLB abilities, is still only a very rough estimate, with a wide bell curve, and sometimes your prospect falls behind the curve, much like the Cards discovered recently with Anthony Reyes, who was their Tim Linceucm/Matt Cain a couple of years ago, but they just recently gave up and traded him away for nothing much, at least I didn't recognize the name.
I love Nate, else I wouldn't quote him in my sig, and wish him well, but as good as he is hitting, he is only 29th in OPS in the PCL. Unless you think there are going to be 30 players coming up from the PCL over the next year and not only start but hit nearly .800 OPS as a regular starter, you have to admit that there are many of these players out of that 30 who are going to eventually go to the majors and majorly suck. If you know that Nate is not going to be one of them, then you deserve a job as a fortune teller, because there isn't anybody who knows that for certain, there are levels of belief and possibilities.
Giants Trading Deadline Plans
It also depends regarding the Giants deadline plans. Typically, Sabean and the Giants pronouncements are much like Horton The Elephant, "he says what he means, he means what he says," and what he last said was that the team is in transition and they are listening to offers for any veterans but are not trading away any young pitching. Now, how much they accept in trade is another question, but A.J. notwithstanding, the Sabean regime has been pretty good when trading with other teams, we tend to come out ahead of the deal, sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot. Even in the cases of the no-name names that Grant notes, most of the time, the other team didn't get much either.
I think that no team will wow the Giants for Molina, which is what that would take because we have nobody who can take over right now, unless we get their lame-o catcher back in return - and at least get a good enough defensive catcher - along with a good prospect. In this case, getting their catcher would clear the way towards the other team being OK taking on Molina's 2009 contract. I think it would take the loss of the starting catcher for the season while leading the division to get the team to be that desperate for Molina, but then you don't get the lame-o catcher in return, so that's a catch-22. So losing Molina is unlikely in my opinion.
I think Aurilia will probably be gone after the trade deadline, because he can still hit well (road OPS .791; 34 AB/HR or about 20 HR in 680 AB season, good HR power; mashes lefties with .893 OPS) and can play 1B, 3B adequately and SS, 2B in a pinch, can come off the bench for power and driving in RISP. His contract is also pocket change at that point.
After because he's not a difference maker - Durham can make a huge difference if he continues to hit well while Weeks sucks - since he can't hit RHP that well and is not great defensively, so a team would want to acquire him to help them get over the top as the season nears ending and it is clearer what the team's chances are for winning it all. He may or may not make the playoff roster (not if after August 31st), again because he's not a difference maker UNLESS the other team lost a starter for the season and has no adequate replacement. He could be a supplemental acquisition, like how we picked up Bill Mueller one September past.
Winn is not a difference maker either, but is much more valuable than Aurilia because he hits so consistently throughout his career and plays good defense at all three OF positions. He would also represent speed off the bench, along with a touch of double-digit power. Given his 2009 contract, I think it would again take a situation like I described above for Molina for Winn to be traded.
He's a nice player, a complementary player, and it would probably take an injury to an OF late in the season where the team still has a good chance to get into the playoffs for a team to be desperate enough to trade for a Winn now, plus perhaps the situation of losing an OF as a free agent this offseason, meaning Winn has a spot for next season. Otherwise, I don't see another team taking on Winn's contract until the off-season and the musical chairs music ends, and a team finds that they need to get a decent OF in trade. I think we can probably get a failed prospect, much like we got for Durham, plus a prospect with flawed but decent potential (probably a lot of speed too), again much like Durham's trade.
Winn Vs. Schierholtz
It depends on whether the Giants believe that the .726 OPS Winn currently carries represent his net future value or the .766 career OPS or .798 OPS he has compiled as a Giants player. If you think he is done (the .726 OPS), then you try to dump him now, throwing cash out and playing Schierholtz. Think of it this way, nobody thought of this earlier in the season when he was hitting better, only when he has been slumping recently, and yet the only real difference between then and now is that Winn is slumping right now. Unless you think he suddenly lost it, there is no reason to think he's not still the roughly .800 OPS hitter he has been for us the past few years. And if you think it's the .798 OPS, then you hold onto Winn because of his better defense and veteran experience, because then he has Nate beat on three counts, offensive, defensive, and intangible leadership.
BTW, that is the trade scenario that Ted Robinson discussed while on Ralph's and Tom's show the other day when he suggested that Winn was horribly overpaid since we could get equivalent production by playing Schierholtz (nevermind the fact that players of his offensive abilties are getting that much and more - hello Gary Mathews Jr. - on the open free agent market). He admonished the Giants for not trading Winn when we got an equivalent or better player (and much younger and cheaper) sitting in AAA.
It also depends on whether you believe that Schierholtz is actually the .778 MLE OPS from this season or the .787 MLE OPS is his 2007 suggests, or if the holes in his swing that scouts and observers have noted about him would expose him in the majors as a AAAA hitter, much like Todd Linden's 2005 .904 MLE OPS didn't really portend anything close to that in the majors. That MLE hasn't really materialized yet, has it?
Not to jinx him, but MLE is not a guarantee, it is an approximation that, while nice for giving you a ballpark estimate of his MLB abilities, is still only a very rough estimate, with a wide bell curve, and sometimes your prospect falls behind the curve, much like the Cards discovered recently with Anthony Reyes, who was their Tim Linceucm/Matt Cain a couple of years ago, but they just recently gave up and traded him away for nothing much, at least I didn't recognize the name.
I love Nate, else I wouldn't quote him in my sig, and wish him well, but as good as he is hitting, he is only 29th in OPS in the PCL. Unless you think there are going to be 30 players coming up from the PCL over the next year and not only start but hit nearly .800 OPS as a regular starter, you have to admit that there are many of these players out of that 30 who are going to eventually go to the majors and majorly suck. If you know that Nate is not going to be one of them, then you deserve a job as a fortune teller, because there isn't anybody who knows that for certain, there are levels of belief and possibilities.
Giants Trading Deadline Plans
It also depends regarding the Giants deadline plans. Typically, Sabean and the Giants pronouncements are much like Horton The Elephant, "he says what he means, he means what he says," and what he last said was that the team is in transition and they are listening to offers for any veterans but are not trading away any young pitching. Now, how much they accept in trade is another question, but A.J. notwithstanding, the Sabean regime has been pretty good when trading with other teams, we tend to come out ahead of the deal, sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot. Even in the cases of the no-name names that Grant notes, most of the time, the other team didn't get much either.
I think that no team will wow the Giants for Molina, which is what that would take because we have nobody who can take over right now, unless we get their lame-o catcher back in return - and at least get a good enough defensive catcher - along with a good prospect. In this case, getting their catcher would clear the way towards the other team being OK taking on Molina's 2009 contract. I think it would take the loss of the starting catcher for the season while leading the division to get the team to be that desperate for Molina, but then you don't get the lame-o catcher in return, so that's a catch-22. So losing Molina is unlikely in my opinion.
I think Aurilia will probably be gone after the trade deadline, because he can still hit well (road OPS .791; 34 AB/HR or about 20 HR in 680 AB season, good HR power; mashes lefties with .893 OPS) and can play 1B, 3B adequately and SS, 2B in a pinch, can come off the bench for power and driving in RISP. His contract is also pocket change at that point.
After because he's not a difference maker - Durham can make a huge difference if he continues to hit well while Weeks sucks - since he can't hit RHP that well and is not great defensively, so a team would want to acquire him to help them get over the top as the season nears ending and it is clearer what the team's chances are for winning it all. He may or may not make the playoff roster (not if after August 31st), again because he's not a difference maker UNLESS the other team lost a starter for the season and has no adequate replacement. He could be a supplemental acquisition, like how we picked up Bill Mueller one September past.
Winn is not a difference maker either, but is much more valuable than Aurilia because he hits so consistently throughout his career and plays good defense at all three OF positions. He would also represent speed off the bench, along with a touch of double-digit power. Given his 2009 contract, I think it would again take a situation like I described above for Molina for Winn to be traded.
He's a nice player, a complementary player, and it would probably take an injury to an OF late in the season where the team still has a good chance to get into the playoffs for a team to be desperate enough to trade for a Winn now, plus perhaps the situation of losing an OF as a free agent this offseason, meaning Winn has a spot for next season. Otherwise, I don't see another team taking on Winn's contract until the off-season and the musical chairs music ends, and a team finds that they need to get a decent OF in trade. I think we can probably get a failed prospect, much like we got for Durham, plus a prospect with flawed but decent potential (probably a lot of speed too), again much like Durham's trade.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Giants Fire Sale: Addendum
MLB Trade Rumors quotes Jayson Stark's take on the fire sale rumor that confirms the Ken Rosenthal article. Where's there smoke, there's a fire sale. His article provides three additional names to the list: Tyler Walker, Rajai Davis, and Merkin Valdez. It also includes the usual suspects: Durham, Aurilia, Winn, and Kline.
I had speculated on Davis being on the list but totally missed Walker and Valdez. I saw Hennessey being the one to be traded, but Walker credentials are almost that of Hennessey in that he has served in all the roles of the bullpen, he just hasn't started much, if any. So, in terms of value, he could be near that of Hennessey, even though he's many years older and just recovering from TJS.
But given the clear statement by the Giants that Hennessey is not starting, then I don't see why Walker and not also Hennessey. They are only really necessary if the Giants are really serious about competing in 2008, not so much if it is a rebuilding year. Perhaps the Giants think they can get more for Walker than for Hennessey. Or maybe they simply think that he won't be good enough, long enough, so may as well see what they can get for him today. If they don't get offered enough, they can simply pull him off the table then.
Valdez I am surprised by, especially since he is doing well this spring training. Maybe they are just doing a switch and bait with him on the list, to get a feel for how much teams are willing to give up for him plus get the team on the phone and talk them into another player. Maybe he still does something the Giants don't think will work out in the long run, much like how they gave up on Jerome Williams so fast, faster than fans (including myself) were willing to, but ultimately they have been correct, Williams and Aardsma have not amounted to much, and they at least got some usefulness out of Hawkins and Kline.
Still, surprising to see his name there. After all this waiting, I want to see what we got, not trade him away. I would only be happy getting an interesting position prospect for him. Though I guess I would be OK with another starting pitcher prospect who is semi-decent.
About Davis, another thought just popped in: perhaps Bowker is opening the eyes of the Giants brass this spring, and they are thinking of jumping him to the majors to platoon with Roberts. He isn't hitting particularly well in terms of results, but maybe they are impressed by how well he is swinging.
Or it could be that they are looking at Davis's horrendous September stats and realizing that he was just really lucky in August when they got him, he is just not that good a hitter, so trade Davis now, while his value is high, and try out someone else in platoon with Roberts.
Again, there is no Dave Roberts on the list. I know a lot of fans want him gone instead of Winn, but really, he's the one who mkes the most sense for the Giants going forward, both in terms of lead-off abilities and allowing a young player or two to get significant playing time, plus the fact that we would get more back in a trade from Winn than we would from Roberts. And he has some skills that are plus, whereas Winn is plus nowhere, he is just Mr. Average.
And that's not a knock, just the truth. That is because even an average player is worth something in baseball, the average player is still much better than the so-called replacement level player who are on the margins of baseball. And even the best teams don't have stars at every position, they need average players to complement the good players.
Fire Sales, per the comments made on the other post, don't necessarily mean that you sell off all your good players. It could mean clearing out the deadwood that gets in the way of the new growth, the young players. And before spring training, Durham and Aurilia probably had very little value, given how poorly they did in 2007, so a good showing thus far makes them all shining and, well, not new, but gritty vets with something left to prove. And spring is the time for injurie to crop up, making teams suddenly need players, perhaps, like Durham or Aurilia.
For example, Aurilia would fit in nicely with LA right now, given LaRoche's recent injury, and provide coverage at 3B in case Nomar gets injured again, plus if LaRoche takes longer to recover (or alternatively, they don't have to rush him back), and at worse he's the uber-utility guy across the infield again. Guys who can play multiple positions are especially coveted these days because of the expanded bullpens and 5 man rotations.
And Chicago has been getting dry humped over and over again by the Orioles regarding Brian Roberts, maybe they get tired and pick up Durham again, he's a known quantity, he's from Chicago White Sox before, so the fans know him, and he is good when he is hitting well, and he has been hitting very well this spring. Or any AL team who needs a better DH, Durham could do that as well.
I had speculated on Davis being on the list but totally missed Walker and Valdez. I saw Hennessey being the one to be traded, but Walker credentials are almost that of Hennessey in that he has served in all the roles of the bullpen, he just hasn't started much, if any. So, in terms of value, he could be near that of Hennessey, even though he's many years older and just recovering from TJS.
But given the clear statement by the Giants that Hennessey is not starting, then I don't see why Walker and not also Hennessey. They are only really necessary if the Giants are really serious about competing in 2008, not so much if it is a rebuilding year. Perhaps the Giants think they can get more for Walker than for Hennessey. Or maybe they simply think that he won't be good enough, long enough, so may as well see what they can get for him today. If they don't get offered enough, they can simply pull him off the table then.
Valdez I am surprised by, especially since he is doing well this spring training. Maybe they are just doing a switch and bait with him on the list, to get a feel for how much teams are willing to give up for him plus get the team on the phone and talk them into another player. Maybe he still does something the Giants don't think will work out in the long run, much like how they gave up on Jerome Williams so fast, faster than fans (including myself) were willing to, but ultimately they have been correct, Williams and Aardsma have not amounted to much, and they at least got some usefulness out of Hawkins and Kline.
Still, surprising to see his name there. After all this waiting, I want to see what we got, not trade him away. I would only be happy getting an interesting position prospect for him. Though I guess I would be OK with another starting pitcher prospect who is semi-decent.
About Davis, another thought just popped in: perhaps Bowker is opening the eyes of the Giants brass this spring, and they are thinking of jumping him to the majors to platoon with Roberts. He isn't hitting particularly well in terms of results, but maybe they are impressed by how well he is swinging.
Or it could be that they are looking at Davis's horrendous September stats and realizing that he was just really lucky in August when they got him, he is just not that good a hitter, so trade Davis now, while his value is high, and try out someone else in platoon with Roberts.
Again, there is no Dave Roberts on the list. I know a lot of fans want him gone instead of Winn, but really, he's the one who mkes the most sense for the Giants going forward, both in terms of lead-off abilities and allowing a young player or two to get significant playing time, plus the fact that we would get more back in a trade from Winn than we would from Roberts. And he has some skills that are plus, whereas Winn is plus nowhere, he is just Mr. Average.
And that's not a knock, just the truth. That is because even an average player is worth something in baseball, the average player is still much better than the so-called replacement level player who are on the margins of baseball. And even the best teams don't have stars at every position, they need average players to complement the good players.
Fire Sales, per the comments made on the other post, don't necessarily mean that you sell off all your good players. It could mean clearing out the deadwood that gets in the way of the new growth, the young players. And before spring training, Durham and Aurilia probably had very little value, given how poorly they did in 2007, so a good showing thus far makes them all shining and, well, not new, but gritty vets with something left to prove. And spring is the time for injurie to crop up, making teams suddenly need players, perhaps, like Durham or Aurilia.
For example, Aurilia would fit in nicely with LA right now, given LaRoche's recent injury, and provide coverage at 3B in case Nomar gets injured again, plus if LaRoche takes longer to recover (or alternatively, they don't have to rush him back), and at worse he's the uber-utility guy across the infield again. Guys who can play multiple positions are especially coveted these days because of the expanded bullpens and 5 man rotations.
And Chicago has been getting dry humped over and over again by the Orioles regarding Brian Roberts, maybe they get tired and pick up Durham again, he's a known quantity, he's from Chicago White Sox before, so the fans know him, and he is good when he is hitting well, and he has been hitting very well this spring. Or any AL team who needs a better DH, Durham could do that as well.
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Giants Fire Sale?
The MLB rumor site quoted Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sport reporting that the "Giants have informed several teams that they are shopping over a dozen of their major league and minor league players." Ken Rosenthal said some of the players include Ray Durham, Rich Aurilia, Randy Winn, and Steve Kline. The author of the site then actually called the Giants "and found out that Travis Ishikawa and Noah Lowry are both on that list as well." He suggested that this is a Giants fire sale.
Not quite because not every player who should go in a fire sale were mentioned. All the players listed make a lot of sense to trade because they are holding back younger players or is not as necessary anymore or both.
Durham out = Frandsen starting at 2B. Durham's horrid 2007 notwithstanding, he has had a very solid career, and a good spring could convince another team that he is back enough to obtain. The level of player we get back will correspond fully with how much the other team believes Durham is back.
Aurilia out = Velez as uber-utility guy. Aurilia had a horrible 2007, probably caused by a fender bender in spring training. But he's a relatively cheap vet who can play the whole infield and hit OK enough for a team to take him for a nothing prospect sent to the Giants. And the Giants are happy to oblige because they don't need him right now, except as 3B insurance, but there are others who should do OK at 3B, like Frandsen and possibly Velez.
Randy Winn was one of the few to have a good 2007, so the Giants should want to trade him because he could net a good prospect, unlike the others = Nate Schierholtz and/or Fred Lewis getting a chance to start in RF. They can't platoon since both are lefties, but they would be competing for playing time there. Or they could give Lewis the starting role for half a season, and if he can't hold it, bring up Schierholtz, or even Bowker, depending on who is doing better (though it appears that Bowker might be prepped as Ortmeier's replacement if Dan falters).
Steve Kline out = probably Jose Capellan being kept. Giants have a number of young good RP who are out of options or could be lost: Valdez, Threets, Capellan. The first two have been doing well, and the third, Capellan, comes highly recommended, Felipe Alou would lose a lot of face if they return him to the Red Sox because they got him in Rule 5 draft.
Noah Lowry out = Jonathan Sanchez or Pat Misch in. Both need to start in the majors to see how they do, but Correia looks good to go in winning the only open spot, and Lowry is the most expendable of the top four of Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Lowry (obviously Zito's contract precludes any trade, and the Giants aren't trading the other two, no matter how many fans want them to).
Unfortunately, Lowry went under the knife Friday for surgery, so he's not going to be traded right now. I assume the Giants are kicking the tires, as Sabean would say, in order to set the table for trading him by mid-season.
Travis Ishikawa is a failing prospect and there are now other prospects looking to be the Giants future 1B. First, we have Angel Villalona, who most rate as being in the Top 30 (or better) overall among all prospects. So even if Ishikawa came up this year, Angel will take the spot in a couple of years. Then there is Dan Ortmeier who looks to be getting the chance to start there until Angel is ready, plus if he is OK at 1B, he colld always return to the OF. If Ortmeier falters, then John Bowker would next get the chance. And there are a number of college 1B who the Giants could pick in this season's amateur draft with their #5 pick overall.
Still, Ishikawa is a great defender and has considerable power plus walks a lot, and he really needs to start in AAA or he'll be lost by the Giants next season as he only has one option left. But they appear to like McClain and he plays 1B at AAA plus they are trying out John Bowker at 1B as well (he could also come up mid-season and start in RF too).
I think they should keep him because he has been severely bothered by the poor parks at San Jose and Norwich (see MiLB.com's series by Jonathan Mayo for insight on how bad these parks are for hitters), they need to see how he does in AAA, in more regular parks. But it is not like he's a sure thing, it is just that he showed a lot of power and ability to walk despite the bad hitting environment in San Jose and Norwich is just a bear to play in for almost any power hitter. There should be other teams willing to give him a chance, heck, even Todd Linden got picked up and Ellison was traded twice and was a glorified pinch-runner with each team.
Giants Thoughts
The names on the list above are no surprise to most Giants fans. What is surprising, at least to those who don't read here, is that Dave Roberts is not on the list. As I have been harping on, the Giants want Roberts around to teach tips to the speedsters we'll have up here in 2008 and 2009. The key to making aggressive basestealing work is to not get caught and Roberts steals both in quantity (23-49 while starting regularly) and quality (81% career success; 88% last two seasons).
There was only six names revealed in the two articles, meaning that about five to seven more names are on the list that were not noteworthy enough for the authors to mention. Here are some of my thoughts on who else might be on the list.
Given that the Giants list outfielders as a desire, I have to think that Rajai Davis and Clay Timpner are on the list. Rajai Davis was never much of a prospect, a AAAA candidate until he had that nice month with us before the league caught up with him. And Clay Timpner really only works in CF and we just signed Aaron Rowand to play CF for a long while. Maybe Fred Lewis is on the list too, though I would think he would be mentioned if Ishikawa was.
In addition, they are reportedly looking for set up relievers, so it could be that Brad Hennessey might be on the list as well. As nicely as he has done, in a wide variety of roles - starting, long relief, set-up, and closing - he does not have the power arm that Giants management likes, so he could be a case of selling high, after doing so well in 2007 in a number of roles, as well as oping a spot for one of the trio of relievers we would lose if not on the Giants 25 man roster come starting day: Merkin Valdez, Erick Threets, and Jose Capellan.
He could net a good prospect due to how well he has done, how flexible he can be in a variety of situations, and how much longer they have to control him. It could explain why the Giants started him recently in spring training. You know, show how valuable he can be to prospective teams.
I would also add Randy Messenger and maybe Vinnie Chulk as possibilities too. Particularly Messenger after his big blow up over his demotion the other day. With so many other good young relievers who cannot be sent down, the Giants could afford to trade these two while the trio are doing well and the two have some trade value as major league relievers.
Chulk would not get sent down in any case, but had a nice year last season and thus could net a nice prospect back. Messenger was just sent down recently, as the Giants still had an option on him, but, still, he did well for us until he busted his fist in the wall, which probably cost us any chance of getting anyone good for him in trade, but I would not mind losing him because he don't strike out that many batters on a K/9 basis. We need strikeout pitchers to be more successful in the playoffs and neither of them are stellar in that regard.
Oddly enough, the Giants are looking for backup catchers, which implies that they are not happy with Eliezer Alfonzo or Guillermo Rodriguez as our backups. Given their offensive show during the Carribean Winter Leagues, that suggest they are looking for a strong defensive catcher to complement Molina, whose defense has seen much better days. I like Alfonzo as backup, but given the Giants future relies so much on pitching, it would behoove us to pick up someone solid defensively as a backup catcher, for defensive purposes at the end of the game, plus he could see starts when Bengie Molina is struggling offensively, which is his only area of value-add.
Not quite because not every player who should go in a fire sale were mentioned. All the players listed make a lot of sense to trade because they are holding back younger players or is not as necessary anymore or both.
Durham out = Frandsen starting at 2B. Durham's horrid 2007 notwithstanding, he has had a very solid career, and a good spring could convince another team that he is back enough to obtain. The level of player we get back will correspond fully with how much the other team believes Durham is back.
Aurilia out = Velez as uber-utility guy. Aurilia had a horrible 2007, probably caused by a fender bender in spring training. But he's a relatively cheap vet who can play the whole infield and hit OK enough for a team to take him for a nothing prospect sent to the Giants. And the Giants are happy to oblige because they don't need him right now, except as 3B insurance, but there are others who should do OK at 3B, like Frandsen and possibly Velez.
Randy Winn was one of the few to have a good 2007, so the Giants should want to trade him because he could net a good prospect, unlike the others = Nate Schierholtz and/or Fred Lewis getting a chance to start in RF. They can't platoon since both are lefties, but they would be competing for playing time there. Or they could give Lewis the starting role for half a season, and if he can't hold it, bring up Schierholtz, or even Bowker, depending on who is doing better (though it appears that Bowker might be prepped as Ortmeier's replacement if Dan falters).
Steve Kline out = probably Jose Capellan being kept. Giants have a number of young good RP who are out of options or could be lost: Valdez, Threets, Capellan. The first two have been doing well, and the third, Capellan, comes highly recommended, Felipe Alou would lose a lot of face if they return him to the Red Sox because they got him in Rule 5 draft.
Noah Lowry out = Jonathan Sanchez or Pat Misch in. Both need to start in the majors to see how they do, but Correia looks good to go in winning the only open spot, and Lowry is the most expendable of the top four of Cain, Lincecum, Zito, and Lowry (obviously Zito's contract precludes any trade, and the Giants aren't trading the other two, no matter how many fans want them to).
Unfortunately, Lowry went under the knife Friday for surgery, so he's not going to be traded right now. I assume the Giants are kicking the tires, as Sabean would say, in order to set the table for trading him by mid-season.
Travis Ishikawa is a failing prospect and there are now other prospects looking to be the Giants future 1B. First, we have Angel Villalona, who most rate as being in the Top 30 (or better) overall among all prospects. So even if Ishikawa came up this year, Angel will take the spot in a couple of years. Then there is Dan Ortmeier who looks to be getting the chance to start there until Angel is ready, plus if he is OK at 1B, he colld always return to the OF. If Ortmeier falters, then John Bowker would next get the chance. And there are a number of college 1B who the Giants could pick in this season's amateur draft with their #5 pick overall.
Still, Ishikawa is a great defender and has considerable power plus walks a lot, and he really needs to start in AAA or he'll be lost by the Giants next season as he only has one option left. But they appear to like McClain and he plays 1B at AAA plus they are trying out John Bowker at 1B as well (he could also come up mid-season and start in RF too).
I think they should keep him because he has been severely bothered by the poor parks at San Jose and Norwich (see MiLB.com's series by Jonathan Mayo for insight on how bad these parks are for hitters), they need to see how he does in AAA, in more regular parks. But it is not like he's a sure thing, it is just that he showed a lot of power and ability to walk despite the bad hitting environment in San Jose and Norwich is just a bear to play in for almost any power hitter. There should be other teams willing to give him a chance, heck, even Todd Linden got picked up and Ellison was traded twice and was a glorified pinch-runner with each team.
Giants Thoughts
The names on the list above are no surprise to most Giants fans. What is surprising, at least to those who don't read here, is that Dave Roberts is not on the list. As I have been harping on, the Giants want Roberts around to teach tips to the speedsters we'll have up here in 2008 and 2009. The key to making aggressive basestealing work is to not get caught and Roberts steals both in quantity (23-49 while starting regularly) and quality (81% career success; 88% last two seasons).
There was only six names revealed in the two articles, meaning that about five to seven more names are on the list that were not noteworthy enough for the authors to mention. Here are some of my thoughts on who else might be on the list.
Given that the Giants list outfielders as a desire, I have to think that Rajai Davis and Clay Timpner are on the list. Rajai Davis was never much of a prospect, a AAAA candidate until he had that nice month with us before the league caught up with him. And Clay Timpner really only works in CF and we just signed Aaron Rowand to play CF for a long while. Maybe Fred Lewis is on the list too, though I would think he would be mentioned if Ishikawa was.
In addition, they are reportedly looking for set up relievers, so it could be that Brad Hennessey might be on the list as well. As nicely as he has done, in a wide variety of roles - starting, long relief, set-up, and closing - he does not have the power arm that Giants management likes, so he could be a case of selling high, after doing so well in 2007 in a number of roles, as well as oping a spot for one of the trio of relievers we would lose if not on the Giants 25 man roster come starting day: Merkin Valdez, Erick Threets, and Jose Capellan.
He could net a good prospect due to how well he has done, how flexible he can be in a variety of situations, and how much longer they have to control him. It could explain why the Giants started him recently in spring training. You know, show how valuable he can be to prospective teams.
I would also add Randy Messenger and maybe Vinnie Chulk as possibilities too. Particularly Messenger after his big blow up over his demotion the other day. With so many other good young relievers who cannot be sent down, the Giants could afford to trade these two while the trio are doing well and the two have some trade value as major league relievers.
Chulk would not get sent down in any case, but had a nice year last season and thus could net a nice prospect back. Messenger was just sent down recently, as the Giants still had an option on him, but, still, he did well for us until he busted his fist in the wall, which probably cost us any chance of getting anyone good for him in trade, but I would not mind losing him because he don't strike out that many batters on a K/9 basis. We need strikeout pitchers to be more successful in the playoffs and neither of them are stellar in that regard.
Oddly enough, the Giants are looking for backup catchers, which implies that they are not happy with Eliezer Alfonzo or Guillermo Rodriguez as our backups. Given their offensive show during the Carribean Winter Leagues, that suggest they are looking for a strong defensive catcher to complement Molina, whose defense has seen much better days. I like Alfonzo as backup, but given the Giants future relies so much on pitching, it would behoove us to pick up someone solid defensively as a backup catcher, for defensive purposes at the end of the game, plus he could see starts when Bengie Molina is struggling offensively, which is his only area of value-add.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy: Vizquel Injury
It has been revealed today - here is the sfgiants.com version - that Omar Vizquel injured his knee last week and when he had an MRI, they discovered that he needs surgery to fix the damage now and get him back on the field quickly for most of 2008, instead of risking that the surgery happens sometime during the season and losing a large chunk of the season. He will be out 4-6 weeks and most probably will miss some of the start of the season.
The immediate solution noted right now is for Frandsen to man Shortstop in Omar's absense, which means Aurilia at 3B and Durham at 2B, though once Omar is back, Durham might have a battle for playing time at 2B, depending on how well Aurilia hits as well, because the Giants could field Aurilia at 3B and Frandsen at 2B.
Frandsen is jazzed by the opportunity, though he took pains to note that the position is Omar's and he regrets it is an injury that gave him the opportunity. He knows that he still has to win a starting position once Omar is back. But he appreciates the Giants confidence in him and hopes to earn a starting position somewhere for 2008.
This also opens up an opportunity for Eugenio Velez to win the utility middle infielder role at the start of the season. He is still prepping for an uber-utility role - he is playing every position except for pitcher, catcher, and 1B, and I'll bet he'd be willing to catch if it got him into the majors. But he's only keeping the seat warm until Omar comes back and forces one of the starters at 2B, 3B, or SS to the bench, depending on how well Durham, Frandsen, and Aurilia hits.
Clearly, the Giants have been leaning towards Durham at 2B and Frandsen at 3B, given the little public comment on Aurilia's role. I have to assume that the only reason the Giants haven't pulled the trigger on a trade for a 3B is because they want to see how Durham and Frandsen does. If both can hit well enough, the man 2B and 3B, respectively, with Durham providing some power, and there is no need for a trade. If either struggles, then they will probably trade for Crede as oft-rumored to play 3B with the better hiter starting at 2B.
The immediate solution noted right now is for Frandsen to man Shortstop in Omar's absense, which means Aurilia at 3B and Durham at 2B, though once Omar is back, Durham might have a battle for playing time at 2B, depending on how well Aurilia hits as well, because the Giants could field Aurilia at 3B and Frandsen at 2B.
Frandsen is jazzed by the opportunity, though he took pains to note that the position is Omar's and he regrets it is an injury that gave him the opportunity. He knows that he still has to win a starting position once Omar is back. But he appreciates the Giants confidence in him and hopes to earn a starting position somewhere for 2008.
This also opens up an opportunity for Eugenio Velez to win the utility middle infielder role at the start of the season. He is still prepping for an uber-utility role - he is playing every position except for pitcher, catcher, and 1B, and I'll bet he'd be willing to catch if it got him into the majors. But he's only keeping the seat warm until Omar comes back and forces one of the starters at 2B, 3B, or SS to the bench, depending on how well Durham, Frandsen, and Aurilia hits.
Clearly, the Giants have been leaning towards Durham at 2B and Frandsen at 3B, given the little public comment on Aurilia's role. I have to assume that the only reason the Giants haven't pulled the trigger on a trade for a 3B is because they want to see how Durham and Frandsen does. If both can hit well enough, the man 2B and 3B, respectively, with Durham providing some power, and there is no need for a trade. If either struggles, then they will probably trade for Crede as oft-rumored to play 3B with the better hiter starting at 2B.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Klesko Back to Normal? Looks Like He Might Finally Be There!
I was listening to the Krukow morning show today and it was noted that Klesko, having been out for almost the entire 2006 season, would take a while to get into baseball shape. I had noted in a recent post that he had turned things up a notch in May and I thought it would be good to note his first home run hit yesterday, a splash hit, nonetheless, which shows conclusively that the Klesko that Bochy said he would be - from before all his shoulder problems - appear to be back, it takes quite a hit to get a splash hit, so it is very encouraging that he mashed one like that, it is like a harbinger of his return to past prowess.
His problems started in 2003, dropping his OPS from the elite 900+ level to the still good but relatively ordinary 800 OPS level. He had a genetic problem where his shoulder bone, both of them, eventually became bone on bone, a very painful condition, that was solved one at a time, first one shoulder then the next in 2005/6 (not sure when exactly the surgery was, but he was out almost all of the 2006 season.
He was hitting poorly the first month, in April, .282/.333/.359/.692, with only a double and triple and 3 BB/9 K, but with his big game yesterday, he is now hitting .289/.373/.489/.861 for the month of May with 6 BB/4 K, 4 doubles, a triple, and a HR. If he can get another 2+ HR the rest of the month, I think that would be a great sign that he is back to his former level of hitting.
If Klesko's Back
If he is back to his former 900 OPS level of hitting, about a batting line of .290/.385/.520/.905 with 25+ homer power (20 AB/HR rate), then my master plan that I was espousing before the season can come true, only delayed by about two months. At 900 OPS, or even the 850 OPS, and particularly his high OBP, he could take on the JT Snow role a few years back, batting 2nd, like he did last night, or 3rd, and getting on base and driving in runs.
He would basically get 1B starts against RHP unless Bonds is resting, then he could play LF sometimes (or Ortmeier would get a start), it could open up the possibility I noted in spring where Bochy could decide to play Ortmeier (Linden originally) in LF, Klesko at 1B, and Aurilia at 3B, or he could decide to play Feliz at 3B, Aurila at 1B, and Klesko in LF. Now you can even throw Frandsen in the mix for 3B.
After Feliz's great defense at 3B the last few nights, I think people can see the value he brings defensively, but if Aurilia can hit around 800 OPS and Feliz is struggling around the low-to-mid 700's, then the falloff, though probably slight since Aurilia was a SS previously, would be worth the additional hitting that Aurilia can provide. And Aurilia was right around there most of April until that stiff neck problem caused his hitting to fall like a boulder in a road runner-coyote cartoon - through the ground - so he could find himself sitting as well while Feliz plays. It depends on who has the hot hand at the moment.
Also, with Vizquel's struggles at the plate - he's now hitting a Neifi-ish .235/.264/.265/.529 in May after a 1 for 19, 2 for 23 skid, after going 14 for 40 at the start the month, May 3rd - I can see situations where Aurilia would play SS, particularly if Klesko ends up taking up all the RHP ABs at 1B, the Giants would then slide Aurilia over to play SS and 3B more often, depending on matchups, though Vizquel and Feliz will probably still see most of the ABs at those positions, particularly Vizquel.
As much as I would like to see Frandsen more, clearly Bochy is only giving Frandsen about one start a week, and Aurilia will probably see most of the "rest" games for Vizquel and Feliz. Hopefully the Giants will notice that when he starts a game, he is 8 for 19, with a walk, double, and triple, .421/.450/.579/1.029 thus far (OK, only 4 starts but still :^).
Still, the main thing is whether Klesko is back to his former self or not, and in April, one would say "no" but he's swinging the bat great in May and also has been hitting very well in SF, despite the fact that he's a lefty and lefties often get screwed batting there. If he can bring a 900 OPS bat to our lineup, he would be the good hitter Giants fans have been clamoring for since the season started and, I think, should be good enough to push our offense to the next level of performance.
Already, with him hitting like this, the Giants are averaging 5.7 runs per game in May (really only 5.2 runs per game, taking out the 15 run game that skews things greatly) and this with Bonds going through his big slump of the season. Still, they have scored 6 runs or more seven times this month, out of 20 games, and only went 5-2, they really should win any game they score 6 runs in, so that's on the pitching for that. But they also had five games scoring 2 or less runs, so that's on the offense there, we went 1-4 in those games. For games where we scored 3, 4, 5 runs, we went 3-5 so that's about right, you expect to go .500 in those games, that's close enough.
His problems started in 2003, dropping his OPS from the elite 900+ level to the still good but relatively ordinary 800 OPS level. He had a genetic problem where his shoulder bone, both of them, eventually became bone on bone, a very painful condition, that was solved one at a time, first one shoulder then the next in 2005/6 (not sure when exactly the surgery was, but he was out almost all of the 2006 season.
He was hitting poorly the first month, in April, .282/.333/.359/.692, with only a double and triple and 3 BB/9 K, but with his big game yesterday, he is now hitting .289/.373/.489/.861 for the month of May with 6 BB/4 K, 4 doubles, a triple, and a HR. If he can get another 2+ HR the rest of the month, I think that would be a great sign that he is back to his former level of hitting.
If Klesko's Back
If he is back to his former 900 OPS level of hitting, about a batting line of .290/.385/.520/.905 with 25+ homer power (20 AB/HR rate), then my master plan that I was espousing before the season can come true, only delayed by about two months. At 900 OPS, or even the 850 OPS, and particularly his high OBP, he could take on the JT Snow role a few years back, batting 2nd, like he did last night, or 3rd, and getting on base and driving in runs.
He would basically get 1B starts against RHP unless Bonds is resting, then he could play LF sometimes (or Ortmeier would get a start), it could open up the possibility I noted in spring where Bochy could decide to play Ortmeier (Linden originally) in LF, Klesko at 1B, and Aurilia at 3B, or he could decide to play Feliz at 3B, Aurila at 1B, and Klesko in LF. Now you can even throw Frandsen in the mix for 3B.
After Feliz's great defense at 3B the last few nights, I think people can see the value he brings defensively, but if Aurilia can hit around 800 OPS and Feliz is struggling around the low-to-mid 700's, then the falloff, though probably slight since Aurilia was a SS previously, would be worth the additional hitting that Aurilia can provide. And Aurilia was right around there most of April until that stiff neck problem caused his hitting to fall like a boulder in a road runner-coyote cartoon - through the ground - so he could find himself sitting as well while Feliz plays. It depends on who has the hot hand at the moment.
Also, with Vizquel's struggles at the plate - he's now hitting a Neifi-ish .235/.264/.265/.529 in May after a 1 for 19, 2 for 23 skid, after going 14 for 40 at the start the month, May 3rd - I can see situations where Aurilia would play SS, particularly if Klesko ends up taking up all the RHP ABs at 1B, the Giants would then slide Aurilia over to play SS and 3B more often, depending on matchups, though Vizquel and Feliz will probably still see most of the ABs at those positions, particularly Vizquel.
As much as I would like to see Frandsen more, clearly Bochy is only giving Frandsen about one start a week, and Aurilia will probably see most of the "rest" games for Vizquel and Feliz. Hopefully the Giants will notice that when he starts a game, he is 8 for 19, with a walk, double, and triple, .421/.450/.579/1.029 thus far (OK, only 4 starts but still :^).
Still, the main thing is whether Klesko is back to his former self or not, and in April, one would say "no" but he's swinging the bat great in May and also has been hitting very well in SF, despite the fact that he's a lefty and lefties often get screwed batting there. If he can bring a 900 OPS bat to our lineup, he would be the good hitter Giants fans have been clamoring for since the season started and, I think, should be good enough to push our offense to the next level of performance.
Already, with him hitting like this, the Giants are averaging 5.7 runs per game in May (really only 5.2 runs per game, taking out the 15 run game that skews things greatly) and this with Bonds going through his big slump of the season. Still, they have scored 6 runs or more seven times this month, out of 20 games, and only went 5-2, they really should win any game they score 6 runs in, so that's on the pitching for that. But they also had five games scoring 2 or less runs, so that's on the offense there, we went 1-4 in those games. For games where we scored 3, 4, 5 runs, we went 3-5 so that's about right, you expect to go .500 in those games, that's close enough.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Aurila vs. Klesko and the Closer Situation
I've been doing most of my lurking in recent months at El Lefty Malo and thought I would post some stuff here that I had posted there today.
Aurilia vs. Klesko
Someone complained about Bochy playing Aurilia too much over Klesko. So I posted my reply:
I would give Bochy the benefit of the doubt regarding Aurilia/Klesko. Frankly, Klesko was weak hitting until recently and even now he's not hit for much power.
He hit .282/.333/.359/.692 in April and thus didn't see as many games as we might have hoped for, but had put the heat on this month and gotten more play. He is hitting an OK .333/.419/.444/.864 in May thus far.
But still only a 111 ISO for the month, which is very little power. And that's the role we were mainly looking from him, though his high career OBP looks good in replacement of Bonds.
Aurilia, on the other hand, started out very hot, his OPS was in the 800's and reached 908 on April 19, but then cooled off since then. Still, he still has 12 XBH to Klesko's puny 4, and the only HR of the pair, in only double the ABs.
Unfortunately, Aurilia has been colder than Finley's bat since his hot streak, so he should start seeing more rest days coming up.
In fact, in 24 games in April, he played in all 24 and maybe started 22 of them (only 2 games with less than 3 PA), whereas in May, he has played in 12 of 14 games, but got 3 PA or more in 9 of them. So he has already been reduced from 22 starts in 24 in April, to 9 starts in 14 in May.
And if his bat continues to be this cold, and Klesko, Feliz (.280/.321/.460/.781 in May), and Frandsen (.471/.500/.647/1.147 since he returned plus two great starts) hot, he's probably going to see even less.
And Klesko has actually been killing LHP, not RHP, which is the reverse of what one should expect of this platoon hitter:
v.LHP: .429/.556/.429/.984
v.RHP: .288/.344/.390/.734
That's a pretty sad performance for a hitter who had killed RHP before, I wish I could see his RHP splits by month to map his progress (or lack thereof). This is a poor sign of future performance, his LHP hitting should go down a lot, and his RHP hitting has been anemic. He needs to boost up his RHP or he could find himself Lindened this season too.
Closers On the Roster
Next, I commented about who would close should Benitez be traded at some point. I also got a dig in on someone who suggested that we do the Papelbon in Boston thing with Lincecum:
Who let the Dodger/A's fan in here? Lincecum's no closer!!! He starts!!!
I think the best short-term option is Russ Ortiz. He was a closer while coming up our system and I think he closed in college too. That was a long time ago, but I don't think that should matter, should be like riding a bike in terms of attitude and personality for it.
Whether he still has the stuff he had then is the matter, and he claims that he's got it back, and the Giants evidently believe that too, so put him there if he's not starting, seems like a good reward for playing down his Wally Pipp role with Lincecum, and being classy about it.
The best long term on the roster in the pen is probably Hennessey once he gets used to it. Let him set up this year, then Ortiz will go free agent and maybe leave, and Hennessey would be first in line for it. But he would have to fight off Correia, Sadler, and whoever else looks good in spring. And should Ortiz fail in his try, then these guys will be battling for that opportunity, should it present itself.
I like Misch too. I think all the pitchers down below get chances to save, seems like every starter in Augusta has a save. He probably don't get many opps, if any, to save, with Wilson and Sadler there, but he's doing so well, I would just put him in there and see what he can do.
Addendum
By roster, I assume the premise was who would the Giants chose right now based on the stats right now. No one in the minors are really doing that well except for Misch, among the usual suspects (Sadler, Wilson, Valdez - and he's not even back pitching yet, as far as I know).
And by long term, I think Hennessey has shown the most as of right now. I still hope that Wilson fulfills his potential as was projected for him, and become the closer of the future for us, much like Accardo is doing it in Toronto, sadly, or Aardsma in Chicago, but he's still giving up too many walks in AAA.
Yeah, Aardsma and Accardo are doing well in their new homes. I still think that the Giants had to do those moves at the time, to boost their still alive chances to make the playoffs. Hawkins pitched well for us while he was with us, and Kline, who we got for him, has been good as well. Williams, meanwhile, has bounced from organization to organization, and was in the starting 5 for the Nats this season, but just went on the DL, which is just as well, he was doing pretty crappy from what I remember. Aardsma has been doing nicely for the ChiSox, but it took him around 3 years to figure things out and meanwhile we've gotten good performances out of Hawkins and Kline (plus Lincecum's immortal words, "Take off your sweater next time," when Kline came up - nude - and gave a big bear hug to Tim while reporters were interviewing him after his first career win).
Hillenbrand was a horrible addition and it hurts from that standpoint in trading away Accardo. But you have to give to get and Hillenbrand is a professional hitter so the concept of getting him was the right concept for us at the time because 1B was killing us offensively, and while Hillebrand was not the greatest hitter, his career differential (and season) over our 1B choices was significant enough to take the leap. Not every trade is going to work out great, if you don't take any risks, you cannot never get the rewards (Kent, Burks, Schmidt).
However, the trade worked for us in that Chulk is still around and he has been a good reliever for us. While he's not the closer material that Accardo was and is, the point is that he is a perfectly good reliever, good enough to earn first chance at the setup position before blowing it but he's been good since. So at least we still have something to show for losing Accardo, Chulk mitigated the risk of losing Accardo for Hillenbrand so that if we lost Hillenbrand, it was not a total loss, like it was in the trade with Minnesota (another trade good in concept).
Still, the point of the trades is also that even a farm system as maligned as the Giants can keep producing viable relief prospects to replace the ones traded away. Perhaps not as good as the ones traded away - that is yet to be seen, Wilson was much more successful and quicker in the minors coming up than Aardsma or Accardo, plus there was the expectation that Valdez would be coming up soon - but the Giants have a bullpen full of players they drafted and developed plus two - Kline and Chulk - who they got trading other bullpen prospects. Only Benitez is not somehow related to the Giants' farm system.
Bochy Ball
The questioning of Bochy's usage of Aurila and Klesko got me thinking about how Bochy has been doing as manager of the Giants. I've been pretty happy with him thus far. Don't really have many things I can complain bitterly about.
As noted, I think he has been handling the Aurilia/Klesko situation well. I also liked how he sat Feliz down and been playing Aurilia at 3B, until Feliz started hitting. Hopefully Frandsen will get some starts at 3B too.
Speaking of Franny, that's one thing I wished he did better and allowed Frandsen more playing time at the beginning of the season. However, I understand why things went down the way it did. I think Bochy wanted to see how the vets played first, this being his first season with them. It is one thing to look at their stats and see them from the other dugout, another to spend every day with them and dealing with them. Thus Frandsen probably wasn't going to be seeing much time early on.
Normally, this would mean leaving Frandsen in the minors and having someone else on the roster. But in recognition of Frandsen's future with the team, Bochy kept him on the team and let him experience opening day and home opening day. Then they sent him down since he got rusty, get his confidence back with some swell hitting, and brough him back with the intention so use him more, now that Bochy has a better feel for his vets.
Like Feliz. I was impressed that he embarrassed Feliz in front of everyone and pitched batting practice to him and yelling at him to hit to the other side and yelling at him like he was a freaking little leaguer, learning how to hit. Then he benched Feliz a few times, playing Klesko at 1B and Aurilia at 3B. Unbelievably, Feliz has responded to Bochy, after a cold April where he hit .236/.257/.486/.743 with 14 K/2 BB in 72 AB, during May he is hitting .280/.321/.460/.781 with, incredibly, 3 K/3 BB in 50 AB.
Here's the perspective on his achievement this month so far (still only half over). In 22 months of at least 50 AB in the month, excluding this month (meaning out of 21 months), there has only been 1 month out of the 21 where he had less than 10 strikeouts, his first month with over 50 AB when he had 9 strikeouts. He only has 3 this month!!!. In contrast, he has had 15 out of 21 months where he had 15 or more strikeouts, and a number of them over 20.
Then there is the bullpen. Bochy came in with a reputation of creating these wonderful bullpens, of getting these nondescript pitchers who didn't do much of anything before and getting them to perform well. The classic example of this was Cla Meredith, who the 'Dres got last season as a throw in when they traded Mirabelli to the Red Sox. He was lights out and great, pitching for Bochy.
This season, the bullpen went into the season highly maligned, with our best hope for performance, Brian Wilson, sent down to AAA due to poor performance in spring training when he was pretty much guaranteed a spot in the bullpen and was in the running to become either setup man or closer if he did well enough (if he did well, I suspect the Giants might have traded Benitez; that can still happen just before the trade deadline if Benitez is pitching well enough and enough of our bullpen was performing well enough to have candidates for closer). I was one of the few who thought our bullpen would be OK, but I will admit I had my moments when I wondered too. But they have come through for the most part:
I have to think that the Giants will keep Lincecum around in almost any circumstances, other than getting totally blown out and looking like a total rookie. Even if he has a middling start, he has nothing to prove in AAA and Ortiz has already shown publicly that he can accept going to the bullpen if Lincecum is starting. Plus, Ortiz is an experienced bullpen guy and if he really has his stuff back, as he says it has, then he should be even better in relief for us, in long relief and potentially in setup and closing situations because he was a closer while coming up through our farm system.
So Bochy has done a good job thus far with the bullpen, both numbers and handling. He has left in pitchers so that he was not going strictly L/L or R/R no matter what. He has allowed Taschner to take on RHH and is open to having Benitez come in the 8th and pitching over an inning. This shows confidence in the relievers and puts less stress on them by not having them come into the game just for a batter and warming up every game. The pitchers have responded by pitching to their capabilities, they are all around what their career numbers would tell you, maybe a little better.
This is a huge difference over how Alou handled the bullpen and it appears to be working better. And yet Bochy does not shy away from using relievers, his usage of relievers are up there among the league leaders in the NL, but his handling of them does not appear to burn them out like Felipe did. And the bullpen has been very positive in their statements over how Bochy has been handling them, without knocking Alou. However, Krukow, in his morning show, while not criticizing Alou, per se, noting that it is just a matter of differing managerial styles, did say that he likes the way Bochy handles the bullpen and thinks that things are now better for the relievers in terms of stress on their arms.
Aurilia vs. Klesko
Someone complained about Bochy playing Aurilia too much over Klesko. So I posted my reply:
I would give Bochy the benefit of the doubt regarding Aurilia/Klesko. Frankly, Klesko was weak hitting until recently and even now he's not hit for much power.
He hit .282/.333/.359/.692 in April and thus didn't see as many games as we might have hoped for, but had put the heat on this month and gotten more play. He is hitting an OK .333/.419/.444/.864 in May thus far.
But still only a 111 ISO for the month, which is very little power. And that's the role we were mainly looking from him, though his high career OBP looks good in replacement of Bonds.
Aurilia, on the other hand, started out very hot, his OPS was in the 800's and reached 908 on April 19, but then cooled off since then. Still, he still has 12 XBH to Klesko's puny 4, and the only HR of the pair, in only double the ABs.
Unfortunately, Aurilia has been colder than Finley's bat since his hot streak, so he should start seeing more rest days coming up.
In fact, in 24 games in April, he played in all 24 and maybe started 22 of them (only 2 games with less than 3 PA), whereas in May, he has played in 12 of 14 games, but got 3 PA or more in 9 of them. So he has already been reduced from 22 starts in 24 in April, to 9 starts in 14 in May.
And if his bat continues to be this cold, and Klesko, Feliz (.280/.321/.460/.781 in May), and Frandsen (.471/.500/.647/1.147 since he returned plus two great starts) hot, he's probably going to see even less.
And Klesko has actually been killing LHP, not RHP, which is the reverse of what one should expect of this platoon hitter:
v.LHP: .429/.556/.429/.984
v.RHP: .288/.344/.390/.734
That's a pretty sad performance for a hitter who had killed RHP before, I wish I could see his RHP splits by month to map his progress (or lack thereof). This is a poor sign of future performance, his LHP hitting should go down a lot, and his RHP hitting has been anemic. He needs to boost up his RHP or he could find himself Lindened this season too.
Closers On the Roster
Next, I commented about who would close should Benitez be traded at some point. I also got a dig in on someone who suggested that we do the Papelbon in Boston thing with Lincecum:
Who let the Dodger/A's fan in here? Lincecum's no closer!!! He starts!!!
I think the best short-term option is Russ Ortiz. He was a closer while coming up our system and I think he closed in college too. That was a long time ago, but I don't think that should matter, should be like riding a bike in terms of attitude and personality for it.
Whether he still has the stuff he had then is the matter, and he claims that he's got it back, and the Giants evidently believe that too, so put him there if he's not starting, seems like a good reward for playing down his Wally Pipp role with Lincecum, and being classy about it.
The best long term on the roster in the pen is probably Hennessey once he gets used to it. Let him set up this year, then Ortiz will go free agent and maybe leave, and Hennessey would be first in line for it. But he would have to fight off Correia, Sadler, and whoever else looks good in spring. And should Ortiz fail in his try, then these guys will be battling for that opportunity, should it present itself.
I like Misch too. I think all the pitchers down below get chances to save, seems like every starter in Augusta has a save. He probably don't get many opps, if any, to save, with Wilson and Sadler there, but he's doing so well, I would just put him in there and see what he can do.
Addendum
By roster, I assume the premise was who would the Giants chose right now based on the stats right now. No one in the minors are really doing that well except for Misch, among the usual suspects (Sadler, Wilson, Valdez - and he's not even back pitching yet, as far as I know).
And by long term, I think Hennessey has shown the most as of right now. I still hope that Wilson fulfills his potential as was projected for him, and become the closer of the future for us, much like Accardo is doing it in Toronto, sadly, or Aardsma in Chicago, but he's still giving up too many walks in AAA.
Yeah, Aardsma and Accardo are doing well in their new homes. I still think that the Giants had to do those moves at the time, to boost their still alive chances to make the playoffs. Hawkins pitched well for us while he was with us, and Kline, who we got for him, has been good as well. Williams, meanwhile, has bounced from organization to organization, and was in the starting 5 for the Nats this season, but just went on the DL, which is just as well, he was doing pretty crappy from what I remember. Aardsma has been doing nicely for the ChiSox, but it took him around 3 years to figure things out and meanwhile we've gotten good performances out of Hawkins and Kline (plus Lincecum's immortal words, "Take off your sweater next time," when Kline came up - nude - and gave a big bear hug to Tim while reporters were interviewing him after his first career win).
Hillenbrand was a horrible addition and it hurts from that standpoint in trading away Accardo. But you have to give to get and Hillenbrand is a professional hitter so the concept of getting him was the right concept for us at the time because 1B was killing us offensively, and while Hillebrand was not the greatest hitter, his career differential (and season) over our 1B choices was significant enough to take the leap. Not every trade is going to work out great, if you don't take any risks, you cannot never get the rewards (Kent, Burks, Schmidt).
However, the trade worked for us in that Chulk is still around and he has been a good reliever for us. While he's not the closer material that Accardo was and is, the point is that he is a perfectly good reliever, good enough to earn first chance at the setup position before blowing it but he's been good since. So at least we still have something to show for losing Accardo, Chulk mitigated the risk of losing Accardo for Hillenbrand so that if we lost Hillenbrand, it was not a total loss, like it was in the trade with Minnesota (another trade good in concept).
Still, the point of the trades is also that even a farm system as maligned as the Giants can keep producing viable relief prospects to replace the ones traded away. Perhaps not as good as the ones traded away - that is yet to be seen, Wilson was much more successful and quicker in the minors coming up than Aardsma or Accardo, plus there was the expectation that Valdez would be coming up soon - but the Giants have a bullpen full of players they drafted and developed plus two - Kline and Chulk - who they got trading other bullpen prospects. Only Benitez is not somehow related to the Giants' farm system.
Bochy Ball
The questioning of Bochy's usage of Aurila and Klesko got me thinking about how Bochy has been doing as manager of the Giants. I've been pretty happy with him thus far. Don't really have many things I can complain bitterly about.
As noted, I think he has been handling the Aurilia/Klesko situation well. I also liked how he sat Feliz down and been playing Aurilia at 3B, until Feliz started hitting. Hopefully Frandsen will get some starts at 3B too.
Speaking of Franny, that's one thing I wished he did better and allowed Frandsen more playing time at the beginning of the season. However, I understand why things went down the way it did. I think Bochy wanted to see how the vets played first, this being his first season with them. It is one thing to look at their stats and see them from the other dugout, another to spend every day with them and dealing with them. Thus Frandsen probably wasn't going to be seeing much time early on.
Normally, this would mean leaving Frandsen in the minors and having someone else on the roster. But in recognition of Frandsen's future with the team, Bochy kept him on the team and let him experience opening day and home opening day. Then they sent him down since he got rusty, get his confidence back with some swell hitting, and brough him back with the intention so use him more, now that Bochy has a better feel for his vets.
Like Feliz. I was impressed that he embarrassed Feliz in front of everyone and pitched batting practice to him and yelling at him to hit to the other side and yelling at him like he was a freaking little leaguer, learning how to hit. Then he benched Feliz a few times, playing Klesko at 1B and Aurilia at 3B. Unbelievably, Feliz has responded to Bochy, after a cold April where he hit .236/.257/.486/.743 with 14 K/2 BB in 72 AB, during May he is hitting .280/.321/.460/.781 with, incredibly, 3 K/3 BB in 50 AB.
Here's the perspective on his achievement this month so far (still only half over). In 22 months of at least 50 AB in the month, excluding this month (meaning out of 21 months), there has only been 1 month out of the 21 where he had less than 10 strikeouts, his first month with over 50 AB when he had 9 strikeouts. He only has 3 this month!!!. In contrast, he has had 15 out of 21 months where he had 15 or more strikeouts, and a number of them over 20.
Then there is the bullpen. Bochy came in with a reputation of creating these wonderful bullpens, of getting these nondescript pitchers who didn't do much of anything before and getting them to perform well. The classic example of this was Cla Meredith, who the 'Dres got last season as a throw in when they traded Mirabelli to the Red Sox. He was lights out and great, pitching for Bochy.
This season, the bullpen went into the season highly maligned, with our best hope for performance, Brian Wilson, sent down to AAA due to poor performance in spring training when he was pretty much guaranteed a spot in the bullpen and was in the running to become either setup man or closer if he did well enough (if he did well, I suspect the Giants might have traded Benitez; that can still happen just before the trade deadline if Benitez is pitching well enough and enough of our bullpen was performing well enough to have candidates for closer). I was one of the few who thought our bullpen would be OK, but I will admit I had my moments when I wondered too. But they have come through for the most part:
- Hennessey: 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, .247 BAA, 77% inherited left on (10/13);
- Benitez: 3.55 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .245 BAA, 40% left on (2/5);
- Kline: 3.72 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, .341 BAA, 89% left on (8/9);
- Chulk: 3.78 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, .297 BAA, 40% left on (4/10);
- Taschner: 3.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .179 BAA, 69% left on (11/16);
- Correia: 4.34 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .209 BAA, 33% left on (1/3);
- Sanchez: 5.68 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, .286 BAA, 50% left on (2/4);
- Overall: 3.82 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 63% left on (38/60).
I have to think that the Giants will keep Lincecum around in almost any circumstances, other than getting totally blown out and looking like a total rookie. Even if he has a middling start, he has nothing to prove in AAA and Ortiz has already shown publicly that he can accept going to the bullpen if Lincecum is starting. Plus, Ortiz is an experienced bullpen guy and if he really has his stuff back, as he says it has, then he should be even better in relief for us, in long relief and potentially in setup and closing situations because he was a closer while coming up through our farm system.
So Bochy has done a good job thus far with the bullpen, both numbers and handling. He has left in pitchers so that he was not going strictly L/L or R/R no matter what. He has allowed Taschner to take on RHH and is open to having Benitez come in the 8th and pitching over an inning. This shows confidence in the relievers and puts less stress on them by not having them come into the game just for a batter and warming up every game. The pitchers have responded by pitching to their capabilities, they are all around what their career numbers would tell you, maybe a little better.
This is a huge difference over how Alou handled the bullpen and it appears to be working better. And yet Bochy does not shy away from using relievers, his usage of relievers are up there among the league leaders in the NL, but his handling of them does not appear to burn them out like Felipe did. And the bullpen has been very positive in their statements over how Bochy has been handling them, without knocking Alou. However, Krukow, in his morning show, while not criticizing Alou, per se, noting that it is just a matter of differing managerial styles, did say that he likes the way Bochy handles the bullpen and thinks that things are now better for the relievers in terms of stress on their arms.
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