Your 2011 Giants are 66-55: Beating the Braves

The Giants winning formula is pitching, pitching, and more pitching.  It is kind of like the example people use about the power of time:  at first it was no big deal, but drop after drop of water, you can have the Grand Canyon.

Our pitching wears down other teams, pitch by pitch, start by start, series by series.  But that is not a perfect formula, so there will be hiccups, they are human beings.  Also, as in life, sometimes the other team is just better than you are.  Still, I love our chances in any series.  And in baseball, that is really all you can realistically hope for (unless you are the Yankees, generating 2-4 times the revenues of anyone else, giving them a huge advantage in making the playoffs).

So I am relatively chillaxed compared to other Giants fans even though we are two games back and coming into Atlanta to face the mighty Braves and their super-hot hitter, Uggla, plus superb rotation.  The Giants have been a pretty good team this season, particularly in 1-run games, and the offense is showing signs that it might be coming out of their collective funk that they have been in since the big trade for Beltran slowed it down greatly.  Like a boiling pot, first one batter heats up, then another, then back to the first, then another and another.  And the pitching, after a big hiccup in early August appears to have corrected themselves.  And hopefully they can continue, because, as Elvis once sung, "It's now or never", as there is not that much season left.

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Your 2010 Giants Won NLDS: Giants Gauntlet Great

I had intended to include this YouTube video once the Giants made the playoffs but forgot to do it, so now the impact is more muted.  Still, it represents my feelings about the Giants and the playoffs (and the lead singer reminds me of Tim Lincecum with a haircut, so I thought that was appropo as well):


If this song was appropriate before, it is more so now that the Giants beat the Braves to win the NLDS. Here is another song, with lyrics modified to a Giants theme (props to Will for providing me the link in my comment area), of Journey's "Don't Stop Believing":



Ironically Journey's singer, Steve Perry, is a big Giants fan who is horrified that the D-gers had adopted their song, without his permission, and he's been trying to, first, get them to stop using the song, and second, to get the Giants to adopt the song, but because the D-gers been using it, the Giants don't want to appear to be copying their hated rivals (my words :^).

But I think the song I selected is more appropo because, one, well, my belief has been strong for a number of years now, and two, I do think it's the Giants time now, whether they win against the Phillies or win the World Series or lose along the way, as I truly think that the 2010's is the Giants decade with their core of young players - Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Wilson, Posey, Sandoval, Belt, Wheeler - and key older players like Huff, Burrell, Torres, Sanchez, and right now I would add Ross too, he's been great for us down the stretch and now into the playoffs, he has played into my thoughts of what the 2011 Giants will look like.

Pitching Can Dominate Hitting

As any long time reader knows (read my business plan if you are not) I've been harping on the fact (from the most current research that I know of) that pitchers can dominate games, and from my PQS studies, one can see that the best can do them more often than not (DOM% > 50%).  And that having a whole rotation of pitchers who can do this will be an incredible advantage for a team in the playoffs.  For the NLDS:

Lincecum:  5 PQS in Game 1
Cain:  5 PQS in Game 2
Sanchez:  5 PQS in Game 3
Bumgarner:  5 PQS in Game 4

I would bet that once I dig into September's PQS analysis, we would find that the starting pitchers had an incredible percentage of DOM games (4 or 5 PQS).

Braves Playoff Lineup Was Good

Not that the Braves starters were not dominating too, just, obviously, not as dominating.  The Giants Gaunlet - Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner - basically shut the Braves down.  While the Giants only scored 11 runs in the four games, the Braves only scored 9 runs.  And the Giants Gauntlet only gave up 3 ER (4 total runs) in the four games, and one of them on firstbase scoring on the homer that a reliever gave up. 

Obviously the Braves offense were  not as potent without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, but it was not like the playoff lineup was not without their good hitters:  Brian McCann, Matt Diaz, and they added Derrek Lee and Rick Ankiel, plus, of course, they have their Rookie of the Year candidate, Jason Heyward, who was the odds-on favorite all season long, until he faded at the end while Posey pushed his performance up another level in September.  And Prado was struggling in September before his season-ending injury. 

In the first 19 games after Jones ended his season, the Braves averaged 6.4 runs per game.  And 4.6 runs per game for the rest of the season (only averaged 3.5 runs in Sept/Oct, partly because Prado was hitting in the low 600 OPS then).  So it was not like the Braves lineup was left impotent, because of key additions of Lee and Ankiel.

Giants Gauntlet Dominance

For more perspective on the Giants pitching (and fielding), since August 30th's game, the Giants have played 31 games in the season and 4 playoff games:   26 and 3, respectively, were games where the Giants allowed 3 runs or less.  See my Performance box to the side for stats on how important that is and how often the Giants win when they do this.

Just about as amazing is that out of those games, the Giants allowed 4 runs or less in 28 and 4 games, respectively.  That is 3 games in 35 where the Giants gave up more than 4 runs.  Some teams do that in one weekend series, let alone over a 6 week period.

This is a culmination of what I've been preaching for years now about how having a rotation full of pitchers who can dominate the opposing team will wear down the competition, over time.  The key is that the Giants will clean up with ace-type starters in the back of the rotation going against the other teams' 4th, 5th, and 6th starters.  The Giants were 21-12 in Jonathan Sanchez's starts.  The Giants were 11-7 in Madison Bumgarner's starts.  That's 32-19, 13 games above .500 for a 92-70 team, 22 games above .500, representing 59% of the games above .500 between the two of them.

That becomes a key during the playoffs as well.  Whoever we throw up 1-2 against the other team matches up well with their aces.  We'll probably split those.  But then 3-4 we can throw up two more aces vs. most team's 3-4 in talent, and we can win those.  Then we split the 5-6 and the Giants win the series!  Even if we split the middle, that leaves one of our aces pitching Game 7 against the other team's #3 starter.

Phillies Different Beast, But Still

However, the Phillies have 3 ace-level starters in Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels, so that formula for winning won't play as much with those three.  Earlier today, they decided to go with Blanton in game 4, and that gives the Giants an advantage there, as they should have Bumgarner there.  It will be twin matchups, Lincecum vs. Halladay, Sanchez vs. Oswalt, Cain vs. Hamels, twice during the series, Lincecum vs. Halladay in games 1 and 5, Sanchez vs. Oswalt in games 2 and 6, and Cain vs. Hamels in games 3 and 7.  That is, assuming the Giants are not down 0-3 in game 4 and start Lincecum on 3 days rest.

Still, the key thing for the Giants is that they can match up with the Phillies pitching all series.  During those 35 games I noted above, they shut down good offenses in D-Rox, D-back, Brewers.  Out of 19 games against above average offenses, they kept them at 3 runs or less in 17 of them.  They can handle the Phillies hitters the way that their H2O handled the Reds hitters, which is pretty much shut them down.

Look at what the Phillies starters did to the top offensive team in the Reds:  the Giants rotation is equal to them, why can't they do the same to the Phillies offense, which is around as good as the Reds (and about as good as the D-Rox)?  And the Giants shut down Colorado at home, where the offense rules much greater than for the Phillies bandbox of a home.  Why can't they shut them down as well?

Playoffs Different Beast

As I've noted in my business plan series, two different research efforts by Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times, two of the most respected baseball analysis sites around, studied the issue of winning in the playoffs, using different methodologies, came to the same conclusion:  offense don't really matters in the playoffs, it is the defense, comprised of the pitching and fielding, that influences which teams win and which teams loses.  It is not a perfect recipe that guarantees a World Series championship, but if you want to maximize your odds of winning in the playoffs, that is what you have to do.

Baseball Prospectus' study went further and provided metrics by which one can see which teams have the better chances.  First off is a pitching staff where they have a high K/9 among the participants.  Second off is a closer who has a high WRXL, which is BP's proprietary metric for measuring how well a closer does.  Third off is a top fielding defense, as measured by BP's proprietary defense metric.

For 2010, the Giants K/9 was 8.2 while the Phillies was 7.3.  However, there were a number of starters who brought down that average for the Phillies, who will not be in the rotation during the playoffs, so that is probably about even, though I would bet the Giants still have the edge because of Lincecum and Sanchez, plus Bumgarner's K/9 was stellar in September, as he improved greatly that month.

Now for closers, in 2010, Brian Wilson had a 6.271 WRXL while Brad Lidge of the Phillies had a 2.864 WRXL.  Clearly, Wilson has had a much better season than Lidge has, by far, by that measure.  That will pay off in close games.  And Lidge had a relatively high 2.96 ERA and Wilson had a relatively low 1.81 ERA.

Sabermetrically, Wilson is far superior too.  WHIP of 1.18 vs. 1.23.  Only walks 3.1 BB/9 while Lidge is wild, with a 4.7 BB/9.  Wilson strikes out more, 11.2 K/9 vs. Lidge's 10.2 K/9, which is superior either way, though.  But in terms of K/BB, you want your best relievers to have a 2.4+ K/BB and Lidge has a 2.17 K/BB while Wilson has a 3.58 K/BB.

Oddly enough, BP does not publish their stats on fielding.  The best I could find is their stats on defensive efficiency.  The Giants are among the top in DE and PADE, while the Phillies were good, better than average, but in the top third, maybe, in the majors.  That suggests that they are the better fielding team.

So it seems like the Giants have better ingredients for winning this series than the Phillies do, per Baseball Prospectus' research.

Baseball Prospectus' Nadir

I wonder how BP is feeling about their 2010 book right now.  I had been wanting to address this earlier in the season, but never got around to it.  In that annual, they spent their whole chapter on the Giants discussing why Brian Sabean should be fired.  I have had a problem with their clear bias against the Giants over the years (the Giants must have really pissed off BP at some point) and I had kept on buying their books because of the stats and data.  But after that chapter, given my feelings about Sabean, I cannot bring myself to buy their book going forward.

I wonder if they have had the guts to address that chapter at their website (I'm not a subscriber).  Seems like that would be the elephant in the room right now, for, from my perspective, their reputation is on the line with how the Giants are doing.  It is one thing to bad-mouth the decisions that the Giants have made over the years, but a whole another level when you are publicly advocating for the GM to be fired.

Yet, despite all the horrible decisions that in BP's opinion Sabean has made (and he has made them, no doubt), the team won 92 games and stands one series win away from the World Series.  Not exactly a fireable offense, I would think.

Now, they could pussy-foot around the issue by saying that Sabean made a lot of good decisions in season, with the acquisition of Burrell, Lopez, Ramirez, Ray, Guillen, Fontenot, and Ross.  But I would find that to be a lame, CYA response, if a GM deserves to be fired pre-season, unless he pulls off an Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter for John Bowker and Joe Martinez trade, anything less should not result in a winning season, let alone a season the Giants have put together, because no team that a GM who deserves to be fired has assembled should win by adding complementary players like these to the mix.

A team created by a GM who deserves to be fired should be no-where near what the Giants did this season.

Yet that is where we stand now, BP claims to know baseball better than anybody (just ask them, they are not modest) and called for the firing of a GM because he did not build a team the way that BP thought would lead to a successful future (or something like that, I don't recall any detail other than they want him fired, it has been a while, and frankly, this would be the only reason I would fire a GM; if you want a perfect GM, then don't live in a glass house).  The team, which BP didn't think much of last season or this season, has averaged 90 wins over the two seasons.  And look pretty good for years to come.

Ironically, the Giants roster look like it was built by someone reading Baseball Prospectus' great book, Baseball Between the Numbers, the chapter on building a team that would maximize your chances in the playoffs (this is the research study I referenced above and base a lot of analysis off of).  The Giants have focused on pitching and fielding overall, and have added enough offense to win with that. They also have been trying to add speed to the team for years (and failing so far, but maybe Burriss and Noonan will eventually turn out, plus there is Adrianza and Peguero, and now there's Gary Brown, who I have a lot of hopes about succeeding).

Giants History Against Playoff Teams

I had also in the past covered the Giants past history with the playoff teams and did not do that.  The Reds, nothing really, other than the Dusty factor, plus they are gone now so I will not bother researching anything deeper in the past.  The Braves, we are still owed, despite our beating them in 2002, for what they did to us in 1993, that was rightfully our title, but the 'Dres handed it to them on a silver platter by giving McGriff to them for basically nothing, didn't even get a top prospect out the Braves for him.  The Giants have not had anything against them recently, but on a city level, the Giants beat the Philadelphia A's in 1905.

If the Giants make it into the playoffs, obviously the Yankees owe us for the 1962 World Series, plus they should not be able to buy the World Series year after year.  Plus maybe Sabean would like to show up his former employer.  The Rangers we have no history with, other than giving us nice pieces for Molina.  Obviously, Molina will have something to prove against the Giants, but that is on a personal level.  Plus, they haven't been waiting as long as our fans have.

Your 2010 Giants are in the Playoffs: Braves, Game 4

What a series it has been.  The starting pitching has delivered but the relief corps has had its yips.  And the offense, besides Posey, has been pretty much shut down.  Fortunately, it has been able to produce just enough to win two and place the Giants in the position of needing to win one of the next two games to advance, while Atlanta needs both.  And the Giants have been facing such challenges since basically the All Star break, and mostly meeting that challenge.

Game 4:  Derek Lowe vs. Bumgarner

Lowe has not pitched that much worse with less than 4 days rest, but he has pitched a bit worse.  Though that is regular season and not playoffs, Jeff Fletcher tweeted that, "Derek Lowe, on 3 or less days of rest: regular season, 5 GS, 3-1, 4.40; Postseason, 4 GS, 1-1, 3.28."  In any case, it is not like he's been a shutdown type of pitcher:  will that be enough for the Giants?  It wasn't like he was that dominant either, he only lasted 5.1 IP, putting their bullpen in there early, which could have worn them down by yesterday's game.

And Bumgarner, of course, is pitching in his first post-season game in the majors, will he be able to amp down and pitch normally?  The MLB has a nice comparison and article on the two of them here.  Check out the nice table comparison they have on the left side, about half-way down.

Here is why I think Bumgarner will follow in his fellow rotation members' footsteps and keep the great streak we have so far going:  in September, where some young arms give out (looking at you San Diego), Bumgarner had 5 starts, pitched 32.0 IP, gave up 31 hits and only 4 walks, while striking out 32, for an insane 8.0 K/BB ratio (remember good pitchers have a ratio of 2.0 or better, and the best pitchers have 2.4 ratio or better).  His 1.13 ERA was second only to Jonathan Sanchez's 1.01 ERA in September.  His stamina should not have been in doubt by some, because he was raised on a farm, where physical hard work is year round.  And, in any case, the last time he pitched was almost two weeks ago, so he should have plenty of rest.

But as we have seen in this series so far, one mistake here or there and the game could be lost.  Should be another close game, but I would have to lean towards Bumgarner.  But Lowe is good, as he showed in his first start, so it should be another tough game.  Still, the Braves have been relatively lucky so far and lucky to be still in the series and not swept.

While some might say the same about the Giants, really, errors lost the second game for the Giants, else they should have won that game, and yesterday's game should have been remembered as Sanchez's dazzling one-hitter with 11 K's, he should have been took out after he labored to get the last two batters out in the 7th, stretching to a full count for both, and even then, Hinske was lucky to hit the ball in the right spot, almost anywhere else in the park and it would have been an out, it was so close to the foul pole that it hit the foul pole screen after landing and ricocheting.  Hopefully that does not screw much with Romo's psyche.  And game one, really, the Giants had a lot of opportunities while the Braves were totally shut down, it was just a matter of time that the Giants would score and win.

Where the Giants have been lucky is that the Braves are limping along without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado, and now they lost Billy Wagner, their closer.  That would be like losing Huff and Sanchez, roughly, and Wilson.  But that's the beauty and the pain of the MLB's long gauntlet of a season, your players have to be able to survive that long stretch and make it into the playoffs semi-healthy enough to continue playing.

The Giants, as Latos pointed out, added a whole bunch of players near the end, but again, that's baseball, I don't know why Latos didn't know that, it's like he never followed a major league baseball season before or something.  And they added two starters at SS and CF, two key positions, while the Giants really only added a starter in RF (Guillen) during the stretch run, plus a couple of situational relievers.  And now in the playoffs, Guillen is out, Sandoval is benched, and Ross and Fontenot are starting.  But I expect Sandoval to regain his starting position should the Giants move on in the playoffs.

Giants Thoughts

The Giants should win the series, with Bumgarner then Lincecum pitching as necessary.  The Braves have not really mustered much of an offense all series long, while their pitching has not been as shutdown as the Giants have.  While the Giants no longer have the longest streak going of 3 or less runs given up, they basically have continued that after that game and into the playoffs.

Ideally, Bumgarner can win today so that Lincecum can start the series against the Phillies.  But even if it took the full five to finish the Braves, looking at the dates, the Giants could start Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Bumgarner, then go back to Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum if necessary, with extra rest because Bumgarner is in there.  They could also insert Zito in there if we happen to have a two game lead at any point or push Cain to game 4 if necessary, as that would be four days between starts too.  But ideally, we want Lincecum in that first spot so that he can pitch three times in the series if necessary.

Your 2010 Giants are in the Playoffs: Round 1: Beating the Braves

Wow, some would describe the season as torture, but for many Giants fans, almost any season is torture because they are like that character in Lil' Abner which has the cloud following him everywhere or that character in the animated series of Gulliver's Travels in the 70's who always exclaimed, "It'll never work!"

Any season where the Giants are competitive for the division title (and thus the playoffs) is never torture for me.  It is bliss.  Torture to me is more when you know your team is one of the worse around and there is no prospect who looks like he would provide a future for us.  That was like the 70's and 80's where among our "top" prospects were journeyman players like Larry Hearndon, Dan Gladden, Rich Murray, Joe Strain, Bill Laskey, to name but a few, who actually would have been OK pieces on a competitive team, probably, but with only Jack Clark making it up the system as a good player, and I guess I would add Scott Garrelts, they were woefully inadequate.  This season was anything but torture for me.

The 2010 Giants were an exciting team to watch, as they took their tentative steps early in the season, then developed as the season went deep into the playoff chase.  It was like watching your newborn son, who took his first tentative steps last season, suddenly wanted to start running.  You see him stubble a bit early, but as he got his legs and sense of balance, finally you see the results of his hard work as he finally ran across the room and made it to the door and opened it.

They opened it and now are in the playoffs against the Braves, which will be a tough opponent - any playoff contender will be tough - but among the Phillies, Reds, and Braves, you want the Braves because they have been reeling for a long while now and got into the playoffs on fumes.  They finally eked out a final win on the final day to help their cause, but had to wait until the Giants beat the 'Dres to see if they got into the playoffs or not.

The MLB.com has a nice rundown of the two teams here (they like the Giants), but I'll give some commentary below as well.  The key point they make is that the Braves lineup now is nothing like it was earlier in the season, i.e. not as good, and likewise the Giants, only it is much better now,  a point I make below.

Game 1:  Derek Lowe vs. Lincecum

I was going to write about my thoughts about Lincecum's history in pitching in "first times", but Cam Inman in the San Jose Mercury captured that pretty well in his article on that same topic here.  Basically, Lincecum has usually been over-amped for each of his "first time" and tend to be very wild.  The key will be whether Posey can calm the wild bronco and ride him in.  Seeing how he's been handling Sanchez the past month plus, I think that while Lincecum will be wild, Posey will be helping to minimize the damage.  Still, big damage can be done when there is a lot of walks and runners on base.

Lowe on the other hand is a savvy vet who has pitched in playoff situations many times in his career.  And he has done very well for the most part.  But that's also comforting too, that he has had his problems in the playoffs too.  And even when pitching well, he does give up runs, it is not like he shuts down the other team that often.  And I think the reason he got the call to pitch first against the Giants is his 1.80 ERA here in AT&T Park,   He has pitched very well here, but he was pretty lucky in his last start here, this season, when he walked 7 batters.  He does something like that again, we now have Posey, Burrell, Torres, Sanchez, in the lineup, as he did that to us in basically the first weeks of the season.  And Huff was feeling his way around back then too.  Mainly it was Molina and Sandoval who were hitting back then, oh, and Uribe too.

The key to winning is Lincecum (and Posey) overcoming his initial wildness and over-amping as Lincecum can take on Lowe when he is at his best.  If they can dodge the bullets early on, Lincecum should be able to recover and shut down the Braves.  Then it would be up to the Giants offense to score enough runs while the bullpen holds off the Braves, in order to win the game.

And each game is very important to win.  But the Giants has actually been doing this for the past month, so it is not completely new to them, as they have been playing in a playoff series atmosphere for a long while now.  It should not be old hat for them yet, but it should help with the early jitters, hopefully.

Game 2:  Tommy Hanson vs. Cain

I think the reverse of Game 1 happens here.  Not that Cain is as vet as Lowe, but he's been incredibly steady this whole season and is the longest tenure Giant now, while this is Hanson's first season in the majors.  Hanson has never pitched in AT&T Park, but has handled the Giants well in two starts in Atlanta, though he was a bit lucky this season because he only got 3 strikeouts.  And he's been a very good pitcher in the short season and a half that he's been around, but despite a good ERA this season, his win/loss is about .500, as the Braves failed to score for him enough to win a lot of games.   That is reminiscent of how the Giants wasn't scoring for Cain.

So the key here is which team will score enough for their hard-luck pitcher?

Game 3:  Tim Hudson vs. Sanchez

Hudson was actually their best pitcher this season, but because they needed him to pitch on the last day of the season to get into the playoffs, they had to pitch him later in the series.  Plus, he wasn't all that good the last month of the season, with a 5.32 ERA, which is probably a bigger reason why he's third, as both Lowe and Hanson been very good in September, 1.17 and 1.81 ERA respectively.  And he's been up and down against the Giants throughout his career.

Sanchez was actually our best starter in the last month, with a 1.01 ERA, followed closely by Bumgarner's 1.13 ERA.  Lincecum had a 1.94 ERA and Cain was actually 4th with a 3.29 ERA, probably because of his last start.  Sanchez has been beat up by Atlanta in Atlanta, but he totally dominated them K/9 and K/BB overall, so that was a big flukey result plus he really matured the last month of the season, he's not the pitcher he was earlier in the season.  Plus, he basically pitched a playoff game on Sunday, as it was do or die to move on that day, and he came through in spades.

If the pitchers of September show up, the Giants have this game easy, but if it is the pitchers of their careers, then it will be another battle.

Giants Thoughts

And each game will be a battle.  The playoffs are much different beasts, so there is so many possibilities that it is near impossible to say which team will win.  The pluses for the Giants are that their pitchers have been on a monthlong roll, pitching in pressure packed situations and they have come through.  And their hitting, led by ROY candidate Buster Posey, have come through enough to lead to a 20-10 Red Thong record.

With the Giants pitching, they should have the advantage over most teams in the playoffs, but this being their first one, who knows how amped up they are going to be, and how wild they are going to be.   And once the Giants are behind, will the offense be able to pick up the pitchers?

Should a fourth game be necessary, I don't see how the Giants don't go with Lincecum.  If they are ahead 2-1, they would want to go for the win with Lincecum, not Bumgarner.  If they are behind 1-2 and on the brink, then they definitely want to go with Lincecum for the win.  It is possible that the Giants might go with Bumgarner in a 2-1 situation, to give him the opportunity to experience that situation, since they would then have Lincecum to pitch in game 5, but I think the Giants would go for the kill at that point, should they get there.

I think the offense will be led by Posey, Torres, Burrell.  Huff and Sanchez will hopefully be contributing, as well as Sandoval, if he's not over-trying.  The offense has been enough for over a month now, but will it be enough for the playoffs where the pitching should be better?  I think it will be enough, they have faced tough rotations as the season winded down, and been able to beat one guy while our pitching would beat another guy, giving the Giants a 2-1 series win.  The key here, obviously, is that you need 3 wins in the playoffs, meaning the Giants would need to win one of the remaining two.  You have to like their chances but it is no slam dunk either.

Go Giants!

Rebuilding: Truth and Consequences - Braves

I am restarting a series that died after one post about a year ago, because I keep getting the same questions asked again, and I want to be able to point them to this series on rebuilding and move on. The first in the series covered the Brewers (linked here) and my thoughts on why the Giants and Sabean are on the right track, or at minimum, should not be changed right now.

Braves Are the Holy Grail

People like to point to the Braves as the epitome of how to rebuild a team. And there is a lot to like, as I think they have done a great job of extending their period of goodness for as long as they have. But most people forget that there were hard times that lead to the great times, and the Braves are a perfect example of this.

Pre-Historic Braves

People forget about the bad times, they just remember the good times and therefore all must have been good. That's the fallacy. At the start of the 1991 season, here is what the scenario for Braves fans, which is not unlike what the Giants fans are facing today, and in many ways worse:

• The team has had 6 straight losing seasons. In fact, 4 of those 6 they were sixth in the division, and in the other 2 they were fifth, plus they were the worse in the majors once, second worse twice, third worse one, fifth worse once, and sixth worse once. The remedy for this? The GM appointed himself manager and promoted his top assistant to take over as GM. The Giants have gone through 4 straight losing seasons, with two 10th worse, one fifth and one sixth.
• In 1990, they had two superior offensive players, who were both also young, David Justice and Ron Gant, and rest of the lineup were average or much worse, with a superstar who was not aging well and another vet who was hitting well. Their pitching staff was full of young but mostly unimpressive pitchers that season. Smoltz and Glavine were on the rotation but their ERA+ was basically average, and with low K-rates (6.6 K/9 and 5.4 K/9) and low and poor K/BB (1.9 and 1.7) plus a high WHIP of 1.44 for Glavine, the future was not exactly rosy for either of them based on those peripherals, though they did have nice 1989 seasons to give hope. Their best pitcher was a 33 year old Charlie Leibrandt. Steve Avery had a 5.64 ERA, Pete Smith 4.79 ERA, Derek Lilliquist 6.28, out of starters who got at least 10 starts. In the relief corps, most were above 4.50 ERA except for Tony Castillo (4.23) and Kent Mercker (3.17). Their team ERA was 4.58 and despite some good offensive players, they averaged only 4.2 runs per game, resulting in a 65-97 record, the worse record in the majors.
• Thus, heading into 1991, the Braves had two plus young players in Justice and Gant, and a bunch of average and/or unproven players on their team. That is much like the Giants heading into 2009, Lincecum and Cain are the plus young players, the rest look around average and/or unproven.
• So how did they improve in 1991 to a 94-68 record? Well, both David Justice and Ron Gant experienced a drop in OPS+, as did Greg Olson (C) so it was other players who delivered improvement. They signed a 30 year old 1B, Sid Bream, who was an improvement over Dale Murphy, who lost his spot when David Justice moved to RF. Jeff Treadway (2B) improved greatly in his 28 year season. They improved greatly by signing Terry Pendleton to play 3B, and that appears to be the key improvement in the lineup. On the pitching staff, Steve Avery and Glavine had a breakout year and a number of young pitchers came through in the bullpen as well.

And that was about it as far as young (under 30) players go, except for the addition of Greg Maddux in 1993 as a free agent and Fred McGriff in 1993 in a trade (where they did not give up one top prospect to the woeful Padres), until 1994 when Javy Lopez and Ryan Klesko joined the starting lineup, but the really good addition was in 1995 when Chipper Jones joined the lineup. Thus it was 4 years from the time they started getting good again when they added someone significant to their lineup (Chipper) and 9 years from the time they started losing big-time.

In comparison, the Giants have "only" gone through 4 losing seasons and were not the worse team in the majors in any of them, unlike the Braves, and look to break above .500 in 2009. They have good young players in Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson, Romo, Lewis, Sandoval, already on the major league roster, and like the Braves when they were emerging from losing, two of them plus players (Lincecum and Cain) the rest looking at least average, plus a mixture of free agents and promising prospects.

However, we have a number of potentially good players coming up soon. Posey, Bumgarner, Alderson, and Villalona are probably between 1-3 seasons (2010-2012) away from joining the major league team, and they are potentially plus players.

Apples with Apples: Braves After Fourth Losing Season

However, that was their 6th season of losing. After their fourth losing season, the Braves were 54-106. They had just selected Steve Avery with the 3rd pick overall but, ultimately, no other significant player but noteworthy players Turk Wendell and Mark Wohlers. But more on that later.

What did they do to improve in 1989 (which turned out to be their 5th losing season)? They oftained Jody Davis, who was a huge decline from Ozzie Virgil. They had brought up Ron Gant in 1988 to play 2B, but he regressed greatly in 1989, so much that he lost his starting position to Jeff Treadway. Jeff Blauser came up to replace Ken Oberkfell and did above average but really just OK. Andres Thomas regressed at SS. They traded Dion James, an average but young OF, for Oddibe McDowell, a good, young but a little older OF. Terry Blocker was replaced by a declining Dale Murphy in CF before they made the trade for McDowell, inserting a below average Tommy Gregg into RF. On the pitching staff, Glavine made improvements, as well as Smoltz, plus they added Derek Lilliquist to the mix and Marty Clary, who pitched well in about half a season.

So there was no small, let alone bigger, free agent acquisition to bolster the team for 1989, they were hoping that the young guys would improve.

• Their best hitter in 1989 was the 33 year old Lonnie Smith, who only got into less than 50 games in each of the previous two seasons, but then had a career season of 168 OPS+, where his high OPS+ anytime he played 130+ games in a season was 130 OPS+.
• Their second best hitter was mid-season acquisition Oddibe McDowell, 136 OPS+
• Their third best hitter, and this is telling, was Jeff Blauser with 108 OPS+.
• Everyone else were under 100, some very under: C Jody Davis (40 OPS+), SS Andres Thomas (53 OPS+), Dale Murphy (89 OPS+), Tommy Gregg (77 OPS+).
• They not much better the year before in 1988: many were between 90 and 110, Gant 112, Thomas 76, and Blocker 51.
• Despite all that sucking, they acquired no hitter between 1988 and 1989.
• Their pitching was better but not all that good in 1988 too, but they didn't acquire any free agent pitchers either. Good thing too, as they drafted Chipper Jones with the first pick overall in 1990.
• They improved from 54-106 to 63-97

Thus, at the similar point of their evolution into a franchise that many today want to emulate, their lineup was in no better shape with young prospects than we are (they had Gant, Gerald Perry, Jeff Treadway, added Jeff Blauser, and eventually added Oddibe McDowell, but remember he was not there at the start of the season, which is about where we are today with the Giants) and they had some promising young pitchers in Pete Smith, Tom Glavine, Zane Smith, who had ERA+ of 99, 85, and 80, respectively, not good but not bad either, plus a bunch of young pitchers with ERA over 5, including John Smoltz, which compared to what we have today, without benefit of hindsight, the Giants are way ahead with Matt Cain established and Tim Lincecum a superstar in the budding, plus Sanchez, Wilson, Romo, and Hinshaw.

I believe the 2008 Giants have a better roster than the 1988 Braves going into the season following their fourth losing season in a row. Their lineup is not as good as the Braves, but have a number of average level hitters in the lineup plus a couple of question marks that should balance out with other clear advantages:

OPS+

Pos ATL SF (2008)

C 93 98 (Molina)

1B 109 99 (Ishikawa)

2B 112 81 (Burriss)

3B 95 118 (Sandoval)

SS 76 84 (Renteria)

LF 100 105 (Lewis)

CF 51 94 (Rowand)

RF 106 105 (Winn)

Obviously, Sandoval's and Ishikawa's OPS+ are questionable for 2009, but Renteria's prior OPS+ was 104 in 2006 and 125 in 2007, plus Rowand is a huge improvement over the Braves CF, which should balance with the deficits at 1B and 2B, so overall the Giants lineup is similar to the Braves lineup at the same time in their rebuilding.

Overall, the Braves situation is very similar to where the Giants are right now, both offensively and pitching wise, and, while Braves fans might have been calling for Bobby Cox's head at that time, it took two more seasons for them to see that he had the team in the right direction and start their amazing playoff run. The key was to see the long-term progress happening.

And I am not saying that Sabean is as good as Cox, but what I've been saying is that the team is progressing well enough that we should give him more time (i.e. the previous two year extension) to see if he can turn things around, because a change now would probably throw us into another rebuild, which could mean more losing years (see Pirates for example).

I think we have been rewarded thus far with the 2008 season, so far so good, but like Neukom said he would do, the time to make the decision on Sabean being extended beyond 2009 should occur after the 2009 season, unless the Giants happen to really do very well in 2009, in which case, it can be moved up.

Braves Drafts 1986-2007

Let's go over their draft results, from 1986 as that is the first draft year after Bobby Cox took over the Braves, plus I'll throw in Baseball America's top 10 prospects for recent years prospects who have not made the majors yet, to give a flavor for how recent drafts have went, though it must be cautioned that prospects do fail, so while I will discuss their draft to 2007, I will only analyze to 2004's draft. I will cover players who got extensive play in the majors (or top prospects) then assess who were good:

1986: Kent Mercker #1 (5th overall), Steve Finley #11, Tim Salmon #18, Ben McDonald #27; Finley and Salmon were good, Mercker average but Finley, Salmon and McDonald didn't sign with them, so Mercker was their only OK pick in the draft (0 out of 59 picks among the various drafts still in effect at that time).

1987: Derek Lilliquest #1 (6th), Brian Hunter #8, Mike Stanton #13; Lilliquist fizzled after a nice start, couldn't even make it relieving, which Mike Stanton has been able to, and Brian Hunter was a below average hitter (0 out of 50 picks, there is only one draft now).

1988: Steve Avery #1 (3rd), Turk Wendell #5, Mark Wohlers #8; Avery was a good pitcher for much of his pre-free agent years, but after a nice three years, was average for the most part, and the other two were just OK. I would not have included Avery as good in my draft study but since he actually was good for a number of years for the Braves, I will count him (1 out of 69; not one of the extra 19 ever made the majors FYI).

1989: Tyler Houston #1 (2nd), Ryan Klesko #5, Todd Greene #27; Klesko was the star of this draft, and the other two didn't even last more than a few seasons at best, with around mid-1,000 ABs (1 out of 62).

1990: Chipper Jones #1 (1st), Tony Graffanino #10; Chipper is the clear star of this draft, and Graffanino, while useful, is not that good, which is what people want in a draft (1 out of 67).

1991: Mike Kelly #1 (2nd), Jason Schmidt 8th; Schmidt is the star of this draft, Kelly didn't even make it to arbitration (1 out of 62).

1992: Mark Hendrickson #13, Jose Cruz Jr. #15; neither was that good, and neither signed with the Braves, while their first round pick was Jamie Arnold with 21st pick (0 out of 50).

1993: Kevin Millwood #11, Jermaine Dye #17, John Rocker #18; Millwood and Dye were good selections, Rocker not so much but I mention him because he's known, while their first round pick was Andre King with 24th pick, never even saw the majors (2 out of 56).

1994: Wes Helms #10, Mark Hendrickson #32; neither was that good and Hendrickson shunned the Braves again, while their first round pick was Jacob Shumate with 27th pick, never saw majors (0 out of 58).

1995: nobody of note drafted, their first round pick was Chad Hutchinson with 26th pick, just had a cup of coffee (0 out of 56).

1996: Jason Marquis #1s, Eric Munson #2, Mark DeRosa #7, Marcus Giles #53; they were all just OK, but nobody to build around, and A.J. Zapp their first round pick, 27th overall, never saw the majors (0 out of 61).

1997: Horacio Ramirez #5; but he was not that good, with Troy Cameron their first round pick, 29th overall, who never played in the majors (0 out of 69).

1998: Mark Belisle #2, Ryan Langerhans #3, Dallas McPherson #44; did not sign McPherson but none of them were any good, and there was no first round pick (0 out of 49).

1999: nobody of note drafted, and there was no first round pick (0 out of 49).

2000: Adam Wainwright #1 (29th), Kelly Johnson #1s, Zach Miner #4, Delwyn Young #13, Adam LaRoche #29, Tony Gwynn Jr. #33; they did not sign Young or Gwynn, but Wainwright and Johnson are on their way to being good, so I'll count the two as it will get murkier now as prospects will have less experience and have to make judgement calls (2 out of 55).

2001: Macay McBride #1 (24th), Kyle Davies #4, Delwyn Young #29; they did not sign Young again, and none of these players appear to be doing well, plus Josh Burrus was another first round pick, 29th overall, who didn't make the majors (0 out of 53).

2002: Jeff Francoeur #1 (23rd), Dan Meyer #1s, Brian McCann #2, Chuck James #20; only McCann has been good, Francoeur has fizzled since a nice start, same with James, and Meyer is only mentioned because he was traded to get Hudson, who has been good (1 out of 52).

2003: Jarrod Saltalamacchi #1s, Jo-Jo Reyes #2, Brandon Jones #24; while Salty looks to be good, he's not yet, and while they used him to get Teixeira, they ended up with Casey Kotchman at 1B, and Brandon Jones was #4 BA prospect for 2008, and there was no first round pick (0 out of 53).

2004: nobody of note drafted and there was no first round pick (0 out of 49).

2005: Joey Devine #1 (27th), Yunel Escobar #2, Jordan Schafer #3, Tommy Hanson #22, Tyler Flowers #33; only Escobar so far, but the other three looks like they will be good (Jordon Schafer #1 BA prospect for 2008, #3 for 2009; Tommy Hanson #9 BA prospect for 2008, #1 for 2009; Tyler Flowers #12 for 2008; Joey Devine #17 for 2008), but prospects do fizzle sometime so I'll count them as two (2 out of 52).

2006: Cody Johnson #1, Cory Rasmus #1s, Jeff Locke #2, Kris Medlen #10, Cole Rohrbough #22; nobody of note thus far, though Cole Rohrbough was #7 BA prospect for 2008, #6 for 2009, Locke was #8 and #7, Cody Johnson was #11 in 2008, and Medlen was #24 and #9, with Cody Johnson rated as best power hitter in Braves system. I will count them as one (1 out of 54).

2007: Jason Heyward #1 (14th), Freddie Freeman #2; Jason Heyward was #2 BA prospect for 2008 and 2009, rated best hitter for average and strike-zone discipline, and Freddie Freeman was #19 and #5, so I will count them as one (1 out of 52)

Overall, counting from 1986 to 2004, where most of the prospects have graduated to the majors or not (and thus I didn't have to make a judgement call, as I did above for 2005-2007), here are the stats for the Braves:

• 9 good players out of 1,079 players drafted, or 0.8% success rate
• 4 good players out of 546 players drafted in the last ten years, 1995 to 2004, or 0.7% success rate
• 3 good players out of 16 first round draftees, or 19%
• 2 good players out of 7 first round draftees, 1-15th overall picks, or 29%
• 2 good players out of 5 first round draftees, Top 5 overall picks, or 40% (which is roughly what my study found)
• 1 good player out of 10 first round draft picks, 21-30th overall picks, or 10% (which is roughly want my study found), since they started winning. This is what I've talking about, at this rate it would take the Braves 20 years of winning to find the same number of good players in the first round, as they did in 5 years of losing. How's that for speeding up rebuilding?
• 6 good players out of 1,063 non-first round players, or 0.6%, vs. 10% for late first round vs. 40% for Top 5 picks. I think that shows how much more likely you are to find someone in the first round than later rounds, particularly at the top.
• Dividing between winning and losing, from 1986 to 1991, they found 4 out of 369 picks, or 1.1% success rate, and from 1992 to 2004, they found 5 out of 710 picks, or 0.7% success rate. Thus the success rate fell 35% from when they were losing compared to when they were winning.

The Braves, based on their performance with first round picks, were not that much more successful than what I had found in my study of the draft, they were right in the ballpark, almost spot on. As one can see from the vast numbers of non-good prospects (under 1% success rate), you have to kiss a lot of frogs to find that good player. And the odds improve greatly with a Top 5 overall pick, roughly 40+ times more likely.