Giants of the Future: Augusta

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury had a really nice article on Villalona and the nice team the Giants are assembling at the Level A team, the Augusta Greenjackets of the Sally League (South Atlantic League). But read it fast, it will be gone in about 4 days from now.

For those who get the newspaper, there is a great picture of Villalona in there. It makes it very clear why the Giants are moving him to first base, he is Ginormous! The other pictures I've seen of him must have been taken from a very good angle, because he just looked big, but this picture really makes it clear that the Giants have to move him to 1B. After all, he's only 17 and still growing!!! Felipe Alou claims that it is just baby fat, and that he will grow out of it. I will just have to accept his word on that.

In any case, too bad he's probably moving to 1B because we have no one who is ready to take on 3B plus the best position prospects available to us at the #5 pick of the amateur draft this season are firstbasemen. Not that he wouldn't be valuable there too, just it would make our future lineup more clearer. Now we have a question mark at 3B for the future.

But what a nice looking future it is shaping out to be, here on the field in Augusta this spring and summer. Angel Villalona at 1B. Nick Noonan at 2B. Charlier Culberson at SS. Wendell Fairley in CF. Madison Bumgarner at SP, plus maybe Tim Alderson. There is some good info on them, but mostly about Noonan and Villalona:

• Noonan: He has the best strike-zone judgment of any Giants position prospect, according to some coaches. The Giants feel that Noonan's baseball acumen is so off the charts that they even put him on the travel roster for a Cactus League game last week. (Note: they might do the same with Villalona later this spring.)
• Villalona: Lots of quotes by and about him, so I thought it would be easier to just quote them from Baggarly's good article.
  

  Though he signed as a third baseman, Villalona - who is 6-foot-3 and appears
  well beyond his listed weight of 200 pounds - is working at first base and is
  expected to play there at Augusta.
  "I think I am better at first base," Villalona said with the help of an interpreter. "I feel more comfortable at first base, and they put me there for a reason."
  There are some concerns about Villalona's expanding waistline, though Alou calls it "baby fat" and said it's typical for young players to replace it with muscle when they hit their late teens.
  For now, Villalona is getting past the initial culture shock and beginning to settle in. He was soft-spoken but comfortable when speaking with a reporter, as Merengue music drifted from the iPhone in his locker.
  "I'm learning many things," he said. "I want to get my hands dirty and see what I can do."
  While some call him "Baby V" or "Big V," his teammates just call him
  Villa.
  "Villa is just a big kid," Culberson said. "He'll be in the outfield doing cartwheels and the next minute he's hitting bombs."
  Said Alou: "When he first got here, the other players were more advanced, in baseball and in life. He wanted to compete with them, and it was difficult. But I tell you, he is competing with them now. A year later, he is competing."

• Alderson: The reason he might be at Augusta is because he is so advanced that he might get placed with San Jose instead, like how Lincecum started out there (I'm not trying to compare their potential, though, because clearly The Kid was much more advanced, he was a 3rd year college hurler; I'm only noting the similarity of both starting up so high after signing)
• Culberson: During instructional league, he showed that he was pretty advanced with his glove.
• Fairly: Might be the best athlete in the Giants farm system.

One last thing about Villalona. He has been a sensation during spring training, hitting deep drives beyond the left-field fence, over a protective netting, clearing the trees and bouncing off the pavement about 450 feet away. And the vision of him doing cartwheels, given how huge he looked in the photo, is jarring. :^)

Other News

The fallout from Lowry's surgery and being out the month of April continues. Sanchez hasn't been doing well and thus is not holding the last spot in the rotation. The Giants know that Hennessey wants to start and will give him a start today, though there is no plans to stretch him out beyond 2 innings. I have to assume that Misch is in the mix as well. Any rumor about them adding a vet pitcher - I saw one rumor mill mention Kyle Lohse - I have to assume is media-driven speculation, the Giants have been pretty good this winter about going with youth where they can.

In addition, Bochy now says that he will probably have to keep 12 pitchers as a result of the injury. This means an extra guy in the bullpen and they are doing this because the uncertainty in the back of the rotation could result in the need for more relief appearances due to the #5 starter getting pulled early.

I think the team was also influenced by how well both Merkin Valdez and Erick Threets have been throwing, plus the desire to keep Jose Capellan. With a 11 man pitching staff, the Giants would have to lose at least one of them (all of them would be lost if not kept on the 25-man roster). They would also have to lose another if they keep Steve Kline. Valdez, if he continues to pitch well, could slide into a set-up spot and allow the Giants to move Hennessey to starter or long-relief.

Unfortunately, there is also news about Lincecum having a groin injury, so the Giants have shut him down. His slim frame and long stride could cause other physical problems if he should compensate for the groin injury while throwing. I think this was a good precaution.

The good news continue on Wilson and Walker. Both have been doing well, and Wilson was "sharp in his first save situation of the spring." He earned his first save of the spring striking out two and getting a groundout, exactly what you want to see from him as he relies greatly on his cutter that he learned from watching Mariano Riviera demonstrate one on TV.

Lince-Shutdown

After 146.1 IP in the majors and 31.0 IP in the minors - for a total of 177.1 IP - Tim Lincecum has been shut down by the Giants, with Bochy noting, "We just added it all up and said, 'There's just not enough to gain by throwing him out there the next couple of starts. The guy's too valuable to us. He's our future, and we'll just go ahead and rest him up and get him ready for next year." He emphasized that there's nothing wrong with Lincecum physically that led to this decision.

Mike Krukow, on his regular morning spot on KNBR today, assured the hosts that Lincecum is not injured, that this is just a precaution when dealing with young arms, particularly one who only last year was throwing in college and the minors. The college and minor leagues are not as long as a major league season, he noted, and he felt that to be safe, you shouldn't increase the pitcher's IP load more than 25 or so IP over the previous year.

In 2006, Lincecum had 156.0 IP in college plus his professional starts, so the increase in IP was only 21.1 IP from 2006 to 2007. However, from 2005 to 2006, he went from 104.1 IP to 156.0 IP, a huge jump. So by Krukow's standards, he probably shouldn't have pitched much, if at all, as a pro last season, as Lincecum jumped up in IP solely from college was from 104.1 IP to 125.1 IP, leaving at most one start or a series of relief appearances in the pros if this limit was followed.

Cain is Able

At least his jump is not as bad as what Cain did a couple of years ago while coming up our system. Cain didn't jump too much from his signing to year to the next - I assume he pitched at least 40-50 IP in high school, though I'm not too familar with the normal IP load for high schoolers - but from 2003 to 2004, he jumped from 74.0 IP to a combined 158.2 IP (started in San Jose and ended in Norwich). He then jumped again to 192.0 IP in 2005, when he pitched mainly in AAA before a sterling beginning to his major league career, and he really hasn't looked back since.

Since then he has been pretty much around the same. After the 192.0 IP in 2005, he had 190.1 IP in 2006 and 193.0 IP thus far in 2007, with just one more start to go this season (only 9 games left and he just pitched yesterday, means that he pitches the 5th of 9 games then the season ends). He was hoping to reach 200 IP, but it would take a very well-pitched game to reach that.

More critical, to me, is his total pitch count. After yesterday's 113 pitch game, he has a total of 3,241 pitches thrown this season. With one start to go, he will end up around 3,350. I'll admit this is unscientific but I went through a stat book that listed each pitcher's pitch count by season and it seemed like anytime a pitcher would exceed 3,500 pitches in a season, within a season or two after that, his key pitching metrics dipped downward, whether by injury or a significant drop in production. The only pitchers I can remember who were able to beat the odds on that was Randy Johnson , and we'll never know whether it was wear and tear or just plain old age that is causing his recent problems with injuries, and, of course, Roger Clemens.

Lincecum Pitch Count

Lincecum is at 2,399 pitches in the majors this year, which averaged out to 16.4 pitches per inning. With 31.0 IP in the minors (and probably much easier innings than in the majors), assuming 16.4 pitches for the minors (conservatively high), that's 508 pitches. Together, he has thrown approximately 3,000 pitches this season. He would have had two more starts so he would have ended up at above 3,200 pitches had he not been shut down.

Given the high and hard usage that his arm received in college - his PAP abuse score was off the charts in college, among the worse each year - I can see why the Giants are being cautious with their wunderkind. That he is still not icing down his arm, though, speaks to how little actual abuse he has received the past couple of years.

Not that I'm campaigning for Lincecum to stay in the rotation. I think this is the right, conservative move. Lefty Malo was pushing for this one start ago, when his ERA was under 4.00; I could go either way, but I think if Lincecum had his druthers, he would rather start the games.

Opportunity for Others

In particular, at least before the injury to Sanchez took him out of the rotation, one reason I would have shut down Lincecum sooner than later, was that I wanted to see Pat Misch put back in the rotation. I don't know if he'll be a good starter, some relievers can't translate their success to starting (see Ryan Madsen of the Phillies, great reliever, but his experiment as a starter last season was an unmitigated disaster), but Misch was so dominating in AAA that I think the Giants owe it to themselves to see if he can do it as a starter, which he had been for his whole career until very recently.

Now with the injuries and this shutdown, our rotation is reduced to Zito, Cain, Misch, and Correia. There is talk about starting Atchison, but why not throw a bone to Hennessey and let him start? He, like Correia, has been a good soldier and did the relief thing, but at heart they are still starters. Plus, he has been horrible as a reliever recently. Maybe as a starter, he'll get an adrenaline rush that gets him back on track. Just a thought, particularly since it looks like Walker and Wilson at the end of the game right now, there's only middle and long relief plus mop-up work left to do.

It won't hurt to have another starting option, particularly if the Giants do trade a starter from the rotation. Plus if he does well in his starts, he could become a tradeable commodity as well, he has pitched nicely the past two seasons as a reliever and then would also has appeal as a starter. And if he stinks, then clearly his arm is tired and we shut him down too. Seems like a win-win to start him.

Which is unlike starting Atchison. He's a long time AAAA pitcher, getting up there in years, being 31. Of course he should dominate AAA, he's so much older and experienced. I don't see much win in starting him, other than giving him a big thrill. And even if he did well, it would not enhance his trade value, as he has no trade value.

Wouldn't It Be Nice if Brian Wilson Was Our Closer?

Just had to post that. Brian Wilson earned his first save of the 2007 season, second of his MLB career, yesterday. His pitching this year is probably close to what we are going to see during his career, not that many hits given up, but a lot of walks and strikeouts, and probably a lot of saves too. I think he's going to be good, but he's still got to work on his control so that he doesn't walk that many. But given the paucity of closer candidates in our farm system, I think we should just let him take over and see how it goes.

Hennessey Has Been Good

However, that's not fair to Hennessey, who jumped in and has done a credible job as the closer since Benitez was traded. While Hennessey's K-rate is nothing to write home about, he has had excellent control, leading to a good K/BB ratio while in the closer role (heck, it was good even before). Since taking over, he has 11 saves in 29 games, 30.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 29 H, 10 R/ER, 9 BB, 19 SO, 2 HR, .259/.325/.402/.727 batting line against. That's pretty good, though ideally he would have more K's and a better K/SO, but at least that's over 2 (2.11 but ideally over 2.4).

The Future is Now: Wilson is the Future

I guess he deserves to finish the year out as closer, but I would rather look to the future at this point. We all knew going into the season that Wilson was going to be THE closer at some point, so shift Hennessey back to his set-up position, where he did great at, and let Wilson close. The future is now, let's see what Wilson can do with the job.

Closer Du Jour

The Chronicle today had some interesting news from Brian Sabean about our future closer. To wit, he said that he hopes to pluck his 2008 closer from the current staff and not purse one via free agency or trade: "We would hope so, whether it's Brad Hennessey or someone else as the rest of this season unfolds. It could be the best way to go because we all know how fallible you can be in acquiring a closer.

Towards that end, the Giants will use the rest of 2007 to evaluate Hennessey and Randy Messenger as candidates. This is because "they're both durable and they're both strike throwers." That's always a good characteristic of a pitcher, durable and strike thrower: probably won't last very long if you aren't either. :^)

BPV is the metric Ron Shandler uses to evaluate a pitcher's overall performance. Closers ideally should have BPV greater than 100. Brad Hennessey currently has a 72 BPV and Randy Messenger has 48. Kevin Correia is 46. Vinnie Chulk is 43. Jack Taschner is 51. Hello, Jonathan Sanchez has a BPV of 91. Sanchez appears to be the most qualified to be a closer in this bunch.

The article also mentions a scary item in there: Matt Cain, future closer? There are some (koff - idiots - koff) on the Giants who believe he has the stuff and bulldog attitude to become another Jonathan Papelbon. Hello, he has the stuff and bulldog attitude to be an ace pitcher on the staff, a nice duo with Lincecum, to knock other team's sox off in the playoffs, as I will show soon in a post.

Of course, if we can't find a good closer, perhaps that won't be so crazy an idea in the future, as long as we have a strong rotation overall already. But right now, we only have Cain and Lincecum as ace starters. I love Lowry, but he's a #2 starter in production, though he can dominate in August - if he could do that every month, he could be an ace, heck, he would lead the league.

Plus, why not go with Sanchez instead? He's even more of a fireballer, striking out many more than Cain and he doesn't have the repertoire for a starter yet. Plus his BPV is 91, very near the magic 100 that you want to see in a closer. Just a thought...

Cain Returns!

Speaking of Cain, many have been worried about his drop in strikeouts this year (and rightfully so; I was wondering what was up too, I was worried he was injured or tired from too many pitches last season) and I heard something very interesting during the game. One of the announcers (Kruk I think) noted that Cain has been frustrated with his recent outings so he decided to go back to the way he pitched successfully last year: going for the strikeout, damn the pitch count.

Apparently he has been trying (unsuccessfully) to go longer in games by trying to reduce his pitch count by reducing his strikeouts. That would explain, obviously, his reduction in strikeouts, but also explains his rise in walks (not that he wasn't too much of a walker before) because he was probably nibbling and trying to get the hitters to hit grounders early in the count, but ended up just giving free balls to too many batters, putting him behind in the count.

Well, he was successful today. 7.0 IP, 6 hits, 3 runs/ER, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts, 1 HR, 121 pitches, 74 of them for strikes. That is a 5 PQS game, a dominating start again for him. It was around now that he went on that dominating run of starts last year, so here's hoping he just loves August pitching, much like Lowry and his dominating runs in August.

Cain last year in August: 6 starts, 2.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .234 BAA, 47 K/15 BB (over 3.0 ratio, which is stupendous), 11.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 (not great - you want it under 3.0 - but much improved for him).

Lowry for his career in August: 16 starts, 2.33 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, .197 BAA, his only 2 career shutouts, 94 K/33 BB (nearly 3.0 ratio, which, as noted, is stupendous), 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9.

Why anyone would convert someone who can start like that into a closer is beyond me. Sure, a dominating closer can be just as valuable as an ace starter sometimes, but look at the Braves, they let Smoltz start again when he was totally dominating as a closer, and they have been going through a closer conga line since then trying to find an adequate replacement.

We have plenty of pitchers with closer potential in the minors: Brian Wilson, Billy Sadler, Brian Anderson, Merkin Valdez, to name the most prominent ones. Plus Foppert, Griffin, Joaquin are high strikeout pitchers in our farm system. Not every closer material pitcher can start, why waste a pitcher who can be very dominating like Cain as a starter, when we should try all these other candidates (plus others on the rise, Henry Sosa is getting a name for himself) first before considering that.

Plus as long as we are developing and not fighting for a championship, as we appear to be in 2008, just keep him where he is comfortable and, more importantly, wants to be doing. If the team is competitive in the 2009-2012 range and in need of a closer and have plenty of starters, then maybe, but I would still lean towards using someone else as closer instead of Cain. Ridiculous.

Closer du Jour: Hennessey Hits the Spot

As announced on sfgiants.com, Bochy said that Brad Hennessey will be the Giants' first option to close. It was noted that he was a logical successor because he had emerged as the Giants' top setup reliever and had recorded two saves.

In addition:

Bochy added that he might resort to a closer-by-committee system if he feels strongly that another reliever matches up favorably against an opposing lineup or if Hennessey needs rest.

Kevin Correia, Russ Ortiz and Jack Taschner were the pitchers Bochy named to compose that committee. Entering Friday, Correia had recorded a 1.26 ERA in his previous 11 outings, Ortiz was unscored upon in five innings spanning three relief outings, and Taschner has limited opponents to a .192 batting average.

So Hennessey's the closer, except when he's not the closer. Sounds fair enough, basically he gets first dibs to close whenever there is no compelling reason for another reliever to be used instead of him. And these relievers will get a chance to show what they can do in the closer role and allow Bochy to evaluate everyone without a true closer by committee scenario/mess. It will be interesting what happens the first time there is 3 lefties coming to bat with no history with anyone, will Hennessey get the call or Taschner?

And obviously, the title is written in pencil on masking tape, if Hennessey should disappoint at any point for an extended period, the situation will be fluid enough that one of those three might take over. Plus even if he is doing OK, if one of the three just suddenly is getting everyone out, Hennessey might find himself getting more rest than usual.

Particularly since Ortiz has a lot of history with a lot of batters in the league, whereas Hennessey, Correia, and Taschner have very little history with any of the batters. Given his long period of success as a starter, there will be a lot of batters who did not do well against him and Bochy might give him the call over the others to close out a game. I assume this is the out that allows Bochy to use Ortiz more if he proves that he can close again like he did when he was in the minors and college.