Your 2018 Giants: 6 of the SI Top 100

This should be a short one!

SI just published their SI 100 Top MLB players, and the Giants had two among 21-50 - Posey #29 and Bumgarner #36 - and four among 51-100 - Longoria #67, Crawford #79, Belt #82, Cueto #89.  The average team would have 3.33 players on the list, and the Giants had 6.

Unfortunately, the Dodgers had 3 of the Top 21 - Kershaw #7, Seager #17, Turner #21 - plus Bellinger #40, Jansen #62, and Taylor #64.

Together, the two NL West clubs had 12 out of 100.  The D-backs also had four on the list:  Goldschmidt #10; Greinke #24; Pollack #55; Ray #98.  The Rockies had 3:  Arenado #8; Blackmon #28; LeMahieu #86.

Other clubs with at least 6:

• Astros (7):  Altuve #2; Correa #9; Verlander #19; Springer #27; Reddick #66; Bregman #69; Keuchel #71
• Cubs (7):  Bryant #3; Rizzo #23; Darvish #53; Lester #70; Hendricks #72; Quintana #80; Contreras #91
• Indians (6):  Kluber #11; Lindor #15; Ramirez #26; Carrasco #31; Encarncion #76; Miller #81
• Nationals (7):  Scherzer #4; Harper #12; Strasburg #25; Rendon #33; Turner #38; Murphy #77; Gonzalez #84
• Red Sox (6):  Betts #6; Sale #20; JD Martinez #61; Kimbrel #63; Bradley Jr #74; Price #94
• Yankees (6):  Stanton #13; Judge #14; Sanchez #48; Gardner #56; Severino #59; Gregorius #83

Your 2016 Giants: The Three Ami-Gold Glovers

As reported by various news outlets (Haft, Pavlovic, Schulman; I would include Baggarly, but since the SJ Mercury changed to no RSS feed, it's not easy to grab, as these three were), three Giants won Gold Gloves:  Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik.

• Schulman reported:  "The winners were announced on ESPN on Tuesday afternoon. Posey, Crawford and Panik were selected in a vote of National League managers and coaches who could not choose their own players, in combination with a defensive index created by the Society for American Baseball Research."
• As Pavlovic reported, this is the first time since 1994 that the Giants won 3 Gold Gloves in a season.  Bonds, Lewis, and Williams won it that year.   As Haft noted, this is the most since 4 Giants won gold gloves in 1993:  Bonds, Manwaring, Williams, Thompson.  And Schulman noted that the Giants and Rangers were the only teams to win three in 2016, and that 1993, 1994, and 2016 are the only seasons the Giants won 3 or more Gold Gloves.
• This is Posey's and Panik's first Gold Gloves.  Posey's win broke Yadier Molina's eight year streak and he was the first Giants catcher to win it since Matheny won it in 2005.   Panik won in spite of only playing 127 games (and starting only 118, per Schulman), which suggests that, with health, he could put up a streak at 2B.  However, one of the guys he beat out, DJ LeMahieu, had won in 2014 and, per Schulman, is "widely viewed as the best defensive second baseman in the league."  He and Robby Thompson are the only Giants secondbasemen to win a Gold Glove (no Tito?).  
• This was Crawford's second Gold Glove, which was made easier when his top competitor, Andrelton Simmons, was traded to the AL, but he got a new strong competitor in Addison Russell, who the A's stupidly traded away to the Cubs.  Pavlovic:  "This season he had to hold off Cubs rookie Addison Russell, who tied Crawford with 19 Defensive Runs Saved and led in SDI. Crawford had the support of opposing coaches and managers who have spent years watching him pull outs from thin air. "
• Schulman noted:  "Crawford and Panik compose the first double-play combo to win in the NL since the Cardinals’ Edgar Renteria and Fernando Viña in 2002."
• Pavlovic provided numbers that backed Posey:   "He led all catchers with 12 Defensive Runs Saved and was a runaway winner in the SABR Defensive Index, which makes up about a quarter of the vote. Posey finished with 15.2 SDI, far ahead of second-ranked Yasmani Grandal (5.9) and Molina (0.7)."  He noted that the Giants were disappointed that Posey did not win last season, but it has historically been hard to unseat the incumbent, especially someone like Molina, who won for so many years.  These numbers could no longer deny the breakthrough for Posey.  
• Similarly for Panik:  "Panik got a boost from SDI, finishing at 8.5, two points ahead of the next best second baseman."
• This adds to the trophy case for Posey and Crawford, and starts one for Panik:
• Pavlovic:  "The award is the first major one for Panik and gave Crawford two to go along with his 2015 Silver Slugger Award. Crawford said he was happy to hear Posey added another item to an overflowing trophy case. “I think it was the one award that he hadn’t won,” he said. Through eight big league seasons, Posey has an MVP, three Silver Slugger Awards and a Rookie of the Year Award. Like Panik, he finally has that coveted Gold Glove, too. "
• All three noted that they had always focused on defense, from their earliest days.  Which is not surprising given that they all three started out as SS, which is a position that most coaches drill into their heads to be good defensively.  

The Professor Gets Tenure: Giants Sign Crawford to 6 Year, $75M Contract

It has been reported by all the beat writers, which will be officially announced in news conference on Wednesday:

• Pavlovic
• Baggarly
• Schulman
• Haft

He gets a $1.2M bonus, then $5.8M in 2016, $8M in 2017, then $15M from 2018-2021, covering his second and third arbitration seasons, then four of his free agents years, covering him to age 34 season.  Now only Crawford and Posey are signed for the 2021 season, though I expect Bumgarner to join them within the next season or two.  He has a full no-trade clause and no option language.  

He and the team had briefly discussed an extension last spring, but the conversation never got serious.  However, that discussion began the process and then the talks picked up earlier this month, as the extension took a high priority for the front office.  And now they got this bit of business done before getting hot and heavy into the free agency market.

Your 2015 Giants: What the Offense Needed Was A Belt of Belt Belting

I commented elsewhere on Brandon Belt's contributions, making it into a post here (with updates, natch!)

Your 2015 Giants: xBABIP

BABIP is Batting Average on Balls In Play, and every hitter has their own level of skill in maintaining that batting average.  People could periodically try to develop an estimator.  Someone associated with Fangraphs gave it a try (here is the article) using BIS batted ball data.  The idea is that tying the likely results given where and how a ball is hit to develop what should have happened given the batted ball would give us a better idea of the underlying BABIP skill of the hitter.  The author provided a link in his article to the data, and below is my thoughts on Giants players and select NL West hitters.

Your 2015 Giants: Why I Want the Giants to Keep Adrianza

I posted this on another site, so I thought I would put it here too.  Of course, I added a lot post-comment, as I am wont to do.  Give me enough time, I'll find something else to add.  :^)

Also, sometimes my comments end up getting removed (like for some reason, I get blocked a lot by MLBTR, and I see a lot worse comments than what I've tried to put in which subsequently got removed) and I hate when that happen.

I hate to see my work wasted like that, it is not very friendly nor is it being very honest.  Other people have other opinions, sticking your head in the sand by deleting comments is a huge cop out to me.   People invest their time in putting up a comment, if it is a phrase that is objectionable, then post the comment but modify the offending word or phrase, it is not like the whole comment is bad, generally.  That is the only post I've ever deleted, and then I reposted with the offending phrase replaced by a kid-friendly term.  Not that I'm against cussing, but kids do read sometimes and certain words I will replace.

And if it is an idea you don't agree with, explain why you don't.  Hopefully, if you are correct, people will see the truth in the matter.  And if you are being the ostrich, then hopefully the truth will come to you.

At least, that is what I hope for myself when I blog, I don't know or see all, but I do have an opinion that I will stick to until someone convinces me otherwise.  And I'm very open to change, once I see enough evidence that I am wrong.  I am just in search of the truth, I have no bias towards anything other than facts, logic, and eventually reaching the truth, good or bad.  Fiat Lux!

So back to this post, it seems like a lot of fans either didn't like Adrianza, or, amazingly, didn't like Crawford, so I decided to comment on why I want the Giants to keep Adrianza (as well as Crawford)

ogc thoughts

I still like Adrianza.  People point to his poor batting lines but neglect to account for the fact that he's very young relative to the competition in most cases.  They point to AAA being an offensive boost without pointing to AA as being tough on hitters sometimes.  People forget that SS have much lower defensive thresholds, and, more importantly, not every lineup position will have a good hitter even on good offensive teams.  

The key things, to me, to remember about Adrianza is that despite being very young against the competition, he didn't strike out that much, sometimes posting a very good contact rate, while also walking a lot, and coupling that with great defense at SS.  That suggests the potential that when he catches up in age, and perhaps fill out more on his skinny frame, he can do more with the bat and get more hits.

Hitters who can make contact, even when overmatched by the older competition, has a skill that can translate as he rises and gains more experience.  And SS has a low bar for offense, so if he can at least be replacement level, which his good contact rate and walk rate suggests that he can (a high contact hitter who can walk should be at least replacement level offensively, I would think), his defense should be enough to make him a 1-3 WAR player (I find that defense stats vary a lot), should he ever play a full season.

I agree with the thought that Adrianza just missed out on winning 2B in 2014.  Adrianza was on the brink of grabbing the 2B role when he got injured, as he was on a pretty good hot streak before being shut down by the injury.  I think that 3B could be his chance in 2015 should McGehee return to his poorer performing seasons (as suggested by his very high BABIP and lack of power last season).

At worse, I view Adrianza as next in the line of players like Blanco and Arias, hence another reason he's not traded, as the Giants like these types of players.  Both were good contact hitters (so was Stewart) who the Giants picked up to be good backup guys with good defense and OK offense off the bench.  We have seen how injuries affect players and seasons.  Crawford admitted to returning too fast in 2013, Adrianza should be at the point now that the Giants would be comfortable throwing Crawford on the DL for 15 days instead of letting him play on, and letting Ehire start most of the games (Arias will probably get in there too against tough LHP).

Crawford is Pretty Good Too

I don't know why people are so down on Crawford.  His contact rate can get really good sometimes, and when he's on a streak, he's got good power.  Plus his very good defense (if he didn't fail on the easy plays too often, I'm sure he would win a Gold Glove one day).   Plus, it is not like it is easy to find a good SS on the scrap heap or in the draft.  You find a good SS, you hang on to him until he starts declining to zero value.  It is not like every SS can be a Tulo or Jeter, you need to appreciate players like him as well as the Posey and Bumgarners.

In addition, I think Crawford's ready to break out, any time now, just like Belt.  People forget, but he was one of our offensive leaders early in 2014, it certainly wasn't Pablo, who was all out of whack (I think he was following Miggy's advice to be a superstar and get more walks).  He's been a good enough hitter, especially considering that he's had to man the hellish #8 spot mostly, where it is tough to hit.  I've been hoping he would get to bat 7th in order to see what he can do, but with Aoki there, he probably is not going to get much time there.

Adrianza is Very Valuable Off the Bench for Giants

And you never know, should Crawford go down for any reason (see Scutaro/Holliday for example), what would we do if we didn't have Adrianza in reserve?  And as much as I think Panik is a slam dunk, he's in as much danger at 2B as well, plus maybe teams figure out a weakness and he has a sophomore slump, at which point, maybe Adrianza gets his closeup chance again.  And 3B is no sure thing either with McGehee, Ehire being a switch-hitter, could steal some starts there if McGehee struggles too much at any point.

We have a lot of reasons why the Giants would want to keep Adrianza around without considering that he has the creds in the minors that he might still break out.  And the Giants like having reserves like this, like Blanco, Arias, Petit, now Vogelsong, who can come in off the bench and give a good enough performance generally, much better than most bench players.  You don't just trade that away, and potentially for nothing much.

And the Giants are very much a bird in the hand type of organization (only willing to trade when the bird in the hand isn't worth that much in their eyes;  remember, they have a Do Not Trade list).

People also forget that Ehire's still only 25 years old.  Hasn't reached his physical peak, and maybe that is all he needs to translate that good contact and walk rate into good MLB performance.  Many players don't figure it out until later, not everyone is like Cain, Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner.   And at worse, he's a great backup.

I Still Want Brown Around

Which is what I hope for from Brown still, again, another position with low offensive threshold but where he can provide a lot of value defensively.  I view Brown as Blanco's successor, should Gregor leave in free agency, or perhaps they will be a great R/L pair off the bench, should Gregor decide that staying here is better than alternatives (though I have to assume that if anyone offers him a starting job, he's gone;  but he loves the place, the team, so we'll see).

Brown I see being in the same mode that Adrianza is in now:  he has shown enough offensively in the minors that he might still develop, but at worse, if he can be replacement level offensively, he can still add a lot of value defensively and produce 1-3 WAR, varying with the defense, on a full season basis.   Players like that are getting free agent contracts every year to fill in like that.

And I still think that he can do something with the bat.  People need to remember that he had held onto a lot of his bad mechanics until mid-last season, when he started to let the Giants coaches change him around some (being with Boras, he probably thought he got all the coaching he needed from Boras' team of experts and held onto their training).  Hopefully with an off-season working on his new mechanics, it will be old hat for him in 2015 (i.e. muscle memory, instead of learning mode) and he'll be ready to hit better.

Your 2015 Giants: Aoki is A-OK With Me

The Giants reportedly signed Nori(chika) Aoki, formerly with the KC Royals, to come over to the clubhouse across from them in the World Series, to be the Giants starting LF, as the Giants appear to view Blanco as a valuable 4th OF (as reported by Chron).  He has mostly played RF during his MLB career, spanning the last three seasons (not sure what he mostly played in Japan, but given that he played his last season there in CF, presumably he was a CF in Japan).  He has mostly led off for his teams (occasionally batted second too), but the Giants appear to favor him batting 7th (Blanco's usual spot), though he would lead off when Pagan gets a game off.

He gets a $4M contract for 2015 (age 33 season), with $1.5M in incentives that he can earn, plus a team option for 2016 for $5.5M (also with $1.5M in incentives) or a $700K buyout.   MLBTR reports that he took less years and money so that he could get more playing time playing for a contender, and he liked the idea of living in SF) .

ogc thoughts

Great acquisition by the Giants, as now we have a great backup (career .353 OBP both overall and batting leadoff) for lead-off should Pagan hit the DL again.  He has averaged 22 SB per season, and 25 SB over a 162 game season.  Makes great contact, over 90%, plus his K/BB ratio is a hair over 1.0, which is great, he is a hitter in the mode of Scutaro:  high BA, high OBP, low SLG/ISO.   That is great for both leadoff and batting second, which Aoki has mostly been doing during his MLB career.

He is kind of a reverse Blanco in that he has hit LHP better than RHP as a major leaguer.   Yet he's the starter and Blanco is the backup, and I would attribute that to Blanco never figuring out how to be himself when he's leading off.  He lets the pressure gets to him up there, whereas he's been a good (i.e. average) hitter batting lower in the lineup, 5, 6, 7.  If he could just do what he does lower in the lineup, he'll be a starter and could get a nice longer-term contract.

Personally, if Aoki is the starter, I would rather just go with Aoki at leadoff now, instead of Pagan, since he has a low SLG, and use Pagan in the middle of the lineup, like 3rd, where he has hit before, giving us a couple of speedsters hitting ahead of Posey, Pence, Belt, for them to drive in, with Pagan having the ability to drive in guys as well.   Pagan has said he's fine anywhere in the lineup, as long as he is in the lineup, though that could have been for show.  Aoki has been healthy so far as a major leaguer, for the most part, with just the one DL in late June last season, with a left groin strain, so he would be more likely to provide stability up top.

And if we are going to bat Aoki in the bottom of the lineup (frankly, I don't agree with all the talk so far, as Bochy noted hitting McGehee anywhere from 4th on down, and I think it would be better to mix up 6/7/8 among McGehee, Aoki, and Crawford, depending on who the starter is, and what they have in the bullpen), it might be better to bat him 8th because then he could function as a secondary leadoff hitter, heck, bat him 9th and the pitcher 8th, to put another speedster ahead of the top of the lineup.  But as we all know, this is probably all for naught, as Bochy's talk ahead of the season will typically yield to what his gut (and circumstances) tell him to do later in the season.

On the financial analysis side, it's a pretty good deal even at what he produced last season, where he was at 1.0 WAR (WAR is being priced around $7M per WAR right now, so he's getting paid at around 0.7 WAR production), but if he reverts to his 2012-13 rate of 3+ WAR, the Giants got a huge bargain plus can keep him for 2016 as well.  The main difference appears to be his defense, he was kinda good in Milwaukee, but horrible with KC, resulting in the wide swing.  And so far, wide swings like that is common, it's not uncommon to see players rate well then swing around up and down, like BABIP does.

But if you want to go by performance, he's been good in 2012-13, poor in 2014, which could be a result of him playing with a pulled groin muscle, which would cut into his speed and ability to cover as much as he used to, resulting in lowered defensive stats.  Then again, while rWAR has his defense good then bad, fWAR has his defense bad then OK, so who knows?  UZR has an opposite assessment of his fielding relative to DRS and that other metrics that Baseball-Reference.com uses.

Oh, and by fWAR, he's been roughly average WAR (slightly over) each season for the past three seasons.  That is probably part of the reason Fangraphs thinks the Giants got a bargain (right near end of article; though this other Fangraph article calls it "a steal").  An average player is earning around $12-14M per season right now, and the Giants could retain him for $12.5M over the next two seasons, or roughly half his production value of the past three seasons per fWAR.

The Fangraphs article mentions something that has been noted before:  the Giants are powerless.   To be more precise (as I am wont to do), the article notes the Giants lack of homerun power.   But it is not like they have no power, for while they lack overall HR power, they make up for it with other power, as shown by ISO.  Belt, Posey, and Pence are good power hitters, with pretty high ISO, plus Crawford is right around average power and Pagan a bit behind.  It is McGehee, Panik, and Aoki who are powerless.   And I would note again, the BP study of linkage between a team's offensive profile and success in the post-season found that there is no correlation between power hitting, whether HR or otherwise, with deep post-season runs.  So while this is interesting as a talking point, because of fans' preoccupation with dingers, for us Giants fans, the more relevant fact is that it won't hurt our chances to win another trophy.

The Giants, having their defensive focus, hopefully can help him be good defensively (they have been able to coax good defensive years out of Burrell and Huff in the OF, per advanced fielding metrics), which would mean a huge bargain for the Giants in terms of WAR, because of how well he bats.  Appears that they have learned from the Huff deal:  if you are giving a player an opportunity to make good on returning to prior goodness, get a team option so you don't have to pay through the nose in order to retain him for another season, in case the first one was a fluke.  Though as noted above, Aoki took a lesser deal (less years and money) in order to get more playing time with a contender (plus he likes the idea of living in SF).

But again, the greater deal for the Giants is that they got a great leadoff option in Aoki should anything drastic happens to the lineup, that is a great risk mitigation move on the part of the Giants.   Pagan going out has obviously been a huge problem, both in 2013 and 2014.  But losing other players in the lineup could mess things up, at which point, Aoki could take over leadoff duties, and Pagan could hit in a run-producing role, should something happen there.  Great depth for the 25-man roster and lineup, depth at leadoff that we haven't had in years (heck, there were years where we wondered who would lead off:  remember Dusty pushing Shinjo into the leadoff spot?).

Rosterbation

The roster seems pretty set now, with only a few positions open for competition.  The starting lineup appears to be Pagan, Petit, Posey, Belt, Pence, McGehee, Aoki, Crawford (my best guess at the Giants expected lineup, at the moment).  The starting rotation appears to be Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, Peavy, Lincecum, with Petit as 6th starter/long relief.  The bullpen is Casilla (presumably still closer), Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Machi, Kontos/Strickland/Okert/Cordier.  The bench is Hanchez/Susac, Arias, Adrianza, Blanco, Perez/Ishikawa.

One thing that Sabean has been trying to do in the recent era of competitive play, is something I call risk mitigation in terms of roster construction.  He's been talking about this for a long time, talking about the flexibility that certain players provide because they can play multiple positions, and well enough, guys like Winn, DeRosa, Melky, Pagan, Blanco, Arias.  That gives the team the opportunity to move players in the lineup, like a Rubik's Cube, shifting without losing a huge step, as most teams need to do when they lose someone important to the lineup.

As I noted, Aoki is a key addition in this risk mitigation scenario as the backup leadoff hitter, in case Pagan is lost again, for any reason, during the 2015 season.  This is important because Pagan has played only one full season (2012) out of the last four seasons, missing large parts of three seasons.  It is also important because Blanco has proved to not be able to hit consistently well as a leadoff hitter for us during that timeframe.

He actually outhit Pagan for the first month plus after taking over in 2013, but when the bottom dropped out of the lineup, he was caught in the undertow, and started to try hitting 5-run homers to make up for that, dooming his efforts.  And that is what has costed him during this career, being unable to hit within his abilities instead of trying to hit according to what he thinks he should be hitting when leading off.

I think he would have been fine as our starting LF, batting 7th, but if Pagan is gone, he would be the logical leadoff guy again, and we've been there, done that, we know that don't work.  He's just too valuable as a 4th OF who would not be as huge a drop from the starting OF, because of his great defense.  With Aoki in place as the replacement leadoff hitter, Blanco can step in for Pagan and bat in Aoki's 7th place position, with little dropoff in overall production.

Same with other players.  Arias at 3B, he's been even better than Sandoval defensively there, while OK offensively.  Sandoval being out and replaced by Arias would result in minimal reduction in overall production for the Giants in seasons past.  He and Adrianza would also be good enough for a while at 2B, while Adrianza would be good enough at SS should Crawford end up injured again, instead of Bochy simply playing him, as he did in 2013, having Adrianza around could enable the Giants to DL Crawford and let him heal properly and more quickly.

Same with Petit in the starting rotation, he probably would have been fine in that role for 2015, but given the fragility of pitchers (TINSTAAPP), it behooves a team built on pitching and fielding to be able to substitute in Petit when necessary, unlike the Bridegrooms, who, while they had a boatload of starting pitchers that they could go to, they were of the ilk of Maholm, Hernandez, and Correia, they altogether were 5-8 (11-14 overall) with a collective 5.22 ERA in 25 starts.

That type of pitching just eats innings, it leaves a team in poorer position, had Bochy been as good in one-run games as on average, the Giants would have ended up with more wins and won the division.  Starting pitching depth is not the most important factor, quality replacement starting pitching is.  Petit is quality replacement and he can keep the position warm until the Giants can trade for someone like Peavy.

And, of course, we still have multiple closers, good backup there.  Casilla looks likely to continue to be the closer, but we got Romo back, and obviously he was a closer before.  And while he's never been a closer for us (except perhaps briefly, when Bochy said he was going to a committee but still mostly just used one guy, whether Casilla or Romo), Affeldt probably would do a great job for us there as well, if necessary.   And we have had this trio now since 2010.

Need for Another Starting Pitcher

The Giants have continually been mentioned in rumors, even after the Peavy signing, for a starting pitcher.    For example, Shields.  Not sure what that would have meant for the rotation because we already had five starters and the Giants have already said that Lincecum was a starter.  The only way another starter would work, from what I can figure out, is if the Giants went with my idea that I've been mentioning in comments and posts regarding going with a 6-man rotation, in order to lessen the strain on your aces' arm, and the staff in general.

Clearly, post-season work both adds on strain on the arm, while shortening the off-season for rest and recovery.   Having a 6-man rotation means that the average starter gets 27 starts (at 6 IP average that's only 142 IP, at 7 IP, 189 IP).  Plus, it gives the manager the ability to skip someone's start occasionally, which pushes up the other starters up a day, while giving the pitcher a 12-14 day blow to rest or work on stuff.   Or they could go with the top 5 for a month or so, then sometime in May, go to the 6-man rotation.  I think that there are many benefits to having a 6-man rotation, but the negative here is that then there is one less man on the bench, either position player or reliever.  And that would limit Bochy's potential moves, and flexibility in strategy.

I think one way this could work is if the team had a position player who could also pitch relief, like if he pitched only to eat innings in a big blowout type of game.  A guy like Brooks Kieschnick.   I know this is risky, and I'm not suggesting that Posey be the guinea pig, but Buster was a closer in college, and there are other position players who played duo roles like that.  Being able to bring in somebody like that would given the manager another weapon to rely on, assuming the Giants develop the guy's pitching as well as his hitting and fielding.

If you have an alternative idea for why the team is looking for another starting pitcher, even one as good as Shield, I would love to hear it.  Replacing Lincecum is one idea I've seen, but then that means he's in the bullpen or traded for nothing much (plus the Giants would have to cover most of his salary, that would seem to be a waste).   Some might say to replace Hudson, but what if he recovers as advertised and is ready for the start of the 2015 season?  Seems we are back to replacing Lincecum.  Backup for Cain is another possible reason, but again, if Cain is good to go, we are back to replacing Lincecum.  Or the 6-man rotation.

Arbitration Follies

The Chronicle article also noted the arbitration situations for the players eligible and who had not agreed to deals yet.  Petit agreed to a one year deal for $2.1M before figures got exchanged.   Also, subsequent to that article, the Giants (per MLBTR) agreed to a two year deal with Blanco for $3.6M in 2015, and $3.9M in 2016, covering his remaining arbitration years.  He had asked for $4.0M and the Giants had offered $3.3M, so the Giants roughly hewed to their formula of signing some arbitration players to a two year contract with first the Giants offer, then the player's asking salary.  He got $200K more overall, bumped up in 2015, while taking slightly less in 2016.

The remaining players and the offer and asks:

• Belt:  $3.0M/$4.5M
• Crawford:  $2.4M/$3.95M
• McGehee:  $4.0M/$5.4M

I do not expect McGehee to get a two year deal.  So he'll probably get somewhere in near the middle ($4.7M is exact middle).

Crawford I can see getting a two year deal, maybe even three years to cover his entire arbitration eligibility.  Honestly, the Giants offer looks to be on the low side.  Using the 40% rule of thumb for the first year arbitration value, that only values him at $6.0M or roughly a 1 WAR player.  His ask puts him at $10M per season.  Maybe 2 years at $2.5M/$4M, or 3 years at $3M/$4M/$6M.

Belt might be the second arbitration meeting to happen (AJP being the first).  The two sides have been contentious before.  Apparently the Giants offer is only $100K above his salary last season, from what I read in comments somewhere.  Then again, it was a wasted season, as he didn't play very much of the season, plus his batting line went down, as his BA and walk rate plunged, while his strikeout rate went up.  At least they didn't ask for a pay cut, as some teams have done in this situation before.  His agents appear to be like Lincecum's, looking to avoid committing long-term to anything because they expect the player to have an even better season and really knock the ball out of the park in the next round of arbitration.

I can't really see the Giants getting a $3M/$4.5M two year deal.   $4M and $6M is obviously more realistic (mid-point is $3.75M, and the Giants sometimes round upward a few hundred grand for the better players), but I don't really see it happening.  I only expect a one year deal, probably just short of $4M, as Belt and his agents continue to bet on a breakout year from him.  Don't blame them.

I would love to sign him to a three year deal to cover his arbitration years, plus maybe option a free agent year, as I think he's capable of great things and be Votto-lite, but I don't think his side will allow it.  I wouldn't either, if I were his agent.

But as a player gets deeper into arbitration - this is Belt's second of four - money is starting to get kind of big (it's all relative in baseball), and you never know how much a player is willing to take, just for the security, even if he might be leaving money on the table.   $10M could tempt some players.  Throw in a third year at, say, $8M, and the player might bite, $18M is a lot to turn down, especially given Belt's injury prone ways while batting, with two HBP broken hands in four seasons.  Round it up to $20M, and that might get a player willing to sign up.  We'll see, it'll be interesting either way.

Your 2014 Giants: Brandon Crawford vs. LHP

Much has been made in the local media about Crawford's better hitting against LHP than RHP this season, how he has a much higher batting average vs. LHP than RHP.

ogc thoughts

It is easy to forget, but baseball skills don't really reveal themselves over small sample sizes.  For example, BABIP for a hitter is only considered after three years worth of hitting.  This period of proof is made even longer when you split the data up into LHP and RHP.  So quoting what a player is doing vs. arm thrown is pretty useless in-season, other than to note that he is currently better on one than the other, but that does not mean that it would necessarily hold for the season.  So I dug around in his stats to see what could be said about his hitting handedness.

Unfortunately, his minor league splits are not available, but if you look at the full-season ones, he basically has hit equally well against LHP as RHP, on a season by season basis, so LHP don't have the strong negative split for Crawford that LH hitters often has, he has hit both equally well, roughly, though slightly better RHP, natch.

Looking at his MLB splits, it appears that his great 2014 is just making up for a poor 2013 for LHP, and for RHP, it appears that he's having bad luck there, as a counter.

Against RHP, Crawford had roughly .300 BABIP in 2012-2013, but he's only at .248 in 2014.  His contact rate is really low, 74% after 81% in 2012 and 84% in 2013, though his BB/K ratio is about where it was before.  Plus, because he's hitting for a lot more power, his batting line vs. RHP is roughly the same between 2012 and 2014, .661 OPS vs. .650 OPS.

His career contact rate is 82% so he appears to be a little more swing happy in 2014, which could be a result of him trying to hit for more power, resulting his his much higher ISO of 156 in 2014 vs. 125 ISO in 2013 and 112 ISO in 2012.   I would expect him to swing back towards .300 BABIP in 2015 for RHP, while retaining some of that power improvement.

Against LHP, Crawford had .346 BABIP in 2012, .245 BABIP in 2013, and currently has (to July 22nd games) .388 BABIP, which I would attribute to SSS when dealing with LHP, and a regression to mean from his poor 2013 season for BABIP vs. LHP.

His contact rate has actually gone up, from 71% in 2012, to 74% in 2013, and basically 74% in 2014, while his BB/K ratio has gone up with each season, from 0.24 to 0.32 to 0.58 (vs. RHP it has vacillated, from 0.40 in 2012, to 0.52 in 2013, to 0.46 so far in 2014).  And his ISO has exploded (again SSS):  71 in 2012, 89 in 2013, 218 in 2014 (don't expect that to continue, but do expect it to improve on 2012-13, I think).

And lo and behold, here are his numbers for his career:

vs. RHP:  .241/.310/.363/.672, .279 BABIP, 81% contact rate, 0.52 BB/K, 122 ISO
vs. LHP:  .238/.306/.353/.659, .309 BABIP, 72% contact rate, 0.35 BB/K, 125 ISO

And that hews to what he did over several seasons in the minors, he hit LHP roughly as well as he did RHP (though slightly better RHP).

So I think it's safe to say that Crawford is one of those rare LH hitters who can hit LHP almost as well as he does RHP.   He has done it in the majors as well as the minors.  And for some reason, he seems to hit better in terms of impact against LHP than RHP, as he has a higher BABIP there, though, again, SSS says that we should trust this number much less than his RHP numbers, so that is more of a hope than a probably happening.

Still, I think his overall batting line, which has risen steadily from 2012 to 2013 to 2014, most likely will continue to rise again in 2015, his 28 YO season, as he should be reaching his physical peak somewhere around the next season or two.  His RHP #'s should go up and his LHP should go down, but his overall numbers should improve again, I think, as he consolidates his hitting lessons of the past few seasons.

Your 2014 Giants FanFeast

The Giants had their annual FanFest and Baggerly, Schulman, Pavlovic, and Haft posted good bits of info (I would just link, but some spread it out over a number of posts, so find their links to the right if you don't already have them bookmarked, THE sources to go to for comprehensive Giants info).

Your 2012 Giants: Game 6 of the NLCS

Wow, now that was ALL-TIME EPICNESS!  Barry Zito going 7.2 shutout innings, racking up a 5 PQS DOM start for us, the first in the playoffs for the Giants, and it was Zeets delivering!  That is a huge paydown on what he has owed us from his big contract, and it was so exciting listening to the game.  What an epic start!  I think that was his first 5 PQS start since the 2003 playoffs, almost ten years later.

And Brandon Crawford delivered another key hit for us.  True, it was not the first and winning run, but at that point, a 1-0 lead is nothing against their tough team, but his working the count and getting the pitch he wanted extended the lead to a more sturdy 3-0 and allowed Zito - who had his FIRST EVER bunt single in his career - drive in another run, for a strong 4-0 lead, given how Zito was pitching.  After that, Zito was 3 up and 3 downing them.  Crawford has shown a lot in these playoffs, that is one clear lesson of these playoffs, he's going to be a guy we can rely on in tough situations, offensively as well as defensively.  Thank goodness he had that down Junior year, else another team would have drafted him in the first round, as he was projected to go, instead of back in the 4th round where the Giants got him.

And Sandoval's homer - second in two games - sealed the deal at 5-0.  I can't believe I saw some people want to sit Sandoval down in order to play Arias.

As a contrast in managerial style, a couple of years ago, in the same situation, Bochy told his team not to pack just in case and they won.  In this game, Matheny told his team to pack just in case they needed to get to SF.  That might have subconsciously affected the team - the manager isn't confident that we can beat Zito and the Giants and not have to travel back to SF.  Or maybe not, either way, we WON!!!

EPIC!!! Your 2012 Giants Win the NLDS!!! Makes History!!!

"We will see you tomorrow" Hunter

EPIC!!!

The Giants set history by winning the NLDS!!!  First NL team (out of 22) to come back from 0-2 to win a 5 game series!!!  First time any MLB team has come from behind 0-2 in a 5 game series to win three on the road to win the series!!!  The Giants are just the fifth team to come back from 0-2 to win the playoff series!!!


(got gif link from a comment on MCC)

Barry Zito ended up on the good side of history this time, as his A's were the loser in the last two times this situation has come up, losing to the Yankees in 2001, Red Sox in 2003, but now winner with the Giants in 2012.  They survive the gauntlet to see each other for another day, another series.  They will, indeed, see each other tomorrow.

Your 2012 Giants: Trade for Marco Scutaro

It has been reported by Schulman and Baggs that the Giants acquired Marco Scutaro from the Rockies for Charlie Culberson.  They also get some cash to offset Marco's salary, which is roughly $2M for the rest of the season from what I read.

2012 Giants: June PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of June 2012, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Your 2012 Giants: Crawford on the Rise

We all can see that Brandon Belt finally had his epiphany (and great batting mechanics once he changed his stance per the team's instruction; I wrote a little on this at DrB) but it is harder to see changes for other players who are not as gifted offensively as Belt, like with Crawford, so I wanted to point him out today.

Sabean and Bochy get contracts extended thru 2013

As reported (Baggarly, Shea, Haft), the Giants extended Sabean's and Bochy's contracts in lock-step again.  Their contracts were due to expire in 2012, but got extended to 2013 plus there is a team option year for 2014, like there was for their prior contract, which was picked up for the 2012 season last year by Neukom.  Basically, the Giants upper management had to wait for Baer to be annointed "person of control" by the MLB, before he could finalize negotiations with Sabean and Bochy, else this deal might have been finished earlier.

In the press conference that announced the deal, they made a number of comments about the Giants future course (Baggarly, Shea, Haft):

• The plan is to earmark most of their money for their pitching staff, then use the remainder to improve the offense.  People rag on the offense, but as I'll show soon, a large part of that decline was the loss of Posey, but people conveniently forget about abnormal, unlikely to repeat events like that.  "There won't be any big splash.  Our pitching is our gold standard.  We have to make sure we take care of that commodity first," said Sabean.
• Evans noted in the meeting that he has just started talking with Lincecum's and Cain's agents, exchanging ideas and some numbers, mostly talking broadly, so they are not very far into the process yet (due to "so many other things").
• They also have a large number of arbitration-eligible players:  Ryan Vogelsong, Ramon Ramirez, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Nate Schierholtz, Pablo Sandoval.
• Once they take care of the pitching, then they will see how much money is left in the payroll and see which free agents will fit in that.  But they don't anticipate a household name, per se, no sticker shock type of play.
• The payroll has been bumped up to $130M (I believe it was around $125M last season, plus there is always the mythical rainy day fund).
• What they are looking for is better balance and flexibility.  Depth is important and thus flexibility with the roster is important.  (ogc note:  rumors are that the Giants are kicking the tires on Jerry Hairston, Jr., who can play MI as well as COF.  I view him as the successor to the role envisioned for Mark DeRosa, though I'm not sure how good he is defensively; DeRosa was great defensively and good offensively).
• Appears that re-signing Carlos Beltran is a longshot.  He was asked and agreed that an AL club (with the ability to DH regularly) could probably offer Beltran a longer-term contract than the Giants were comfortable with offering to a player with bad knees in his mid-30's.  Still, Sabean noted, "He is a consideration but term will be an issue with anybody we pursue, whether it's him or anybody else.  We have a game plan with what we consider a reasonable length."  (ogc note:  I would note here that they were comfortable with giving Franchez a 3-year contract, which, fortunately for us, he turned down for a two-year, and he's been even more injured prone than Beltran.  People need to remember that as business-people, you don't want to negotiate publicly nor give away your hand.  The Giants might be willing to give 3 years, but you don't give that away, particulalry in public, it is better if you play poor, act like it is possible that you will pass on signing, show some reticience in re-signing, as negotiations will always be one where each side has to give on something. You can't make a fair offer publicly and not have it bite you in the ass later in private negotiations).
• Baggarly:  "Sabean made it clear that the extensions will not be his focus when he arrives at the winter meetings in Dallas on Sunday. He is looking to improve the offense via trade or free agency, with the outfield being the area most in need."
• About SS, Sabean was impressed with the strides Brandon Crawford made in the AFL.  He could possibly be annointed the starter, though it was noted that they could carry his questionable bat if the offense improves elsewhere, and it was noted that he did what was asked to do in AFL, getting high marks regarding the strides he has made (ogc:  everyone has a questionable bat, that is why in the NL the 8th place hitter don't hit for much, so he has a low bar to make.  Plus the pitching makes the bar lower.  I think the offense is good enough as is to handle his bat, particularly because he was actually pretty good at avoiding strikeouts last season, so I think it is just a matter of adjustments and experience before he starts hitting.  May as well start in 2012 as the starter).
• About Belt, Sabean praised his work in the Dominican Winter League, noting Belt's adjustments and his willingness to go there, accept their challenge (he was not intending to go to Winter League, Giants asked him to, partly to make up for development he missed in 2011 because of injury and sitting on the bench).  Moises Alou (GM of the team Belt played on) gave positive reports on Belt.   They noted that he was playable in the OF, though they realize that 1B is his best position. 
• About Ross, he is still up in the air, Sabean noted, "not sure" when asked about him.  (ogc:  that is consistent with before, Sabean noted that Ross could come back to the team later, if available.)
• Sabean, according to  Baggarly, left the general impression that he might not make another move to help the offense.  Sabean:  “I think we have developed enough choices including our young players in the mix and our arbitration eligible players as far as the price point that’s suitable.  I think we’ve created enough food for thought and flexibility... Health is always an issue. We hope the guys who were banged up last year come back to form and do their part and pull their weight.”  (ogc:  I agree that another move is not necessary to help the offense, it should be good enough to win right now, but obviously any additional buffer to risk mitigate another hitter failing to perform would be great.)

And that is roughly it for the press conference, though there were a few other items that came up (read the accounts for that).  

Giants Thoughts

This is what I thought should happen, though I am sure that there are legions of Giants fans crying into their garlic fries right now.  I am very happy right now that Sabean and Bochy got extended another season plus a team option for another season. 

Sabean deserves to continue being the GM, both for putting together the team that we have today and for guiding the team well in the rebuilding phase during the losing.  Bochy, as I noted in prior research, is a unique manager, capable of bringing up his team by anywhere from 6 to 10 wins, every other season, that is a WAR of about 3-4 a season, which some sabers price at $4M (and higher) per win, or $12-l6M per season.  That's a bargain, as I assume Bochy probably don't make anywhere near that per season.

I was disappointed by Haft's dig at both Sabean and Bochy when he noted that others have done more than either over their tenure than they have.  First, sure, there are those who have done more, but that ignores the cycles that Baer talked about in the press conference when praising the two of them.  You have to accept that there will be times when a team is losing and rebuilding.  It also ignores that Bochy was handicapped by the Padres poor payroll problems that regularly rolled around and decimate the good team he had, then was hurt by the Giants rebuilding period at the tail end of the Barry Bonds era, where the teams weren't good enough to win yet.  Every team has a life-cycle of rebuild/compete/repeat that has to play out, nobody is going to be a winner all the time, that is rarely done in the majors, if ever.

Second, and more importantly, Sabean has the team set to win throughout the 2010's and be the team of the decade that I've been predicting for the past 3 years.  The pitching is all pretty set up, they only have to lock up Lincecum and Cain right now to set the team up nicely to do well over the next 4-5 years or so.  The middle of the lineup looks to be great with Sandoval, Posey, and Belt, and the top of the lineup will hopefully be great with Brown and Panik up top in a year or two. 

And with our great pitching and defense (just got the latest THT annual and it has the Giants team defensive runs saved figures there for the past few years and they have been one of the best defensive teams in the majors), what a lot of people don't realize is that it creates a low run environment in almost every game the Giants play in, thus making even a poor offense a good enough offense to win a lot of games with.  But people are stuck in the mindset that you can't win with a poor offense and thus think that Sabean is lame for not doing more.

He is doing what he should be doing, securing our future dominance by getting Lincecum and Cain signed longer term.  The whole team structure for winning falls apart without Lincecum and Cain up top (and with Bumgarner).  I have no doubt that we can get Cain signed to a 5 year contract that might even have a slight home discount.  I expect Lincecum to want fair value (i.e. no discount) but given the talk about liking shorter deals, I would be OK with a two year deal with an option year, then focus on getting him signed to a longer term deal next off-season.

There has been no mention about Bumgarner, but given the animosity that probably was engendered when the Giants summarily renewed his contract at their price for the 2011 season, I would hope the Giants look into making Bumgarner happy, it don't have to be a contract to buy out the rest of his pre-free agent years, though I would like something like that, but I think they should show him a little love in the contract negotiations this off-season.  And I've mentioned Posey and Sandoval getting signed up long-term as well.

All in all, a well deserved extension for both Sabean and Bochy.  Bochy in particular for bringing up the team and making it competitive for the playoffs, when by Pythagorean, by all rights they should have been scuffling around .500 during the 2011 season.  But Sabean too, deserves credit for trying to keep the team together in 2011 for another run, but when things got bad, made the big move to trade for Beltran, plus jettisoned both Tejada and Rowand, when they proved to be detrimental to winning.  Plus, by keeping the pitching staff together, that enabled the team to survive poor hitting and numerous injuries, and still be competitive enough for .500, by Pythagorean, when most teams losing a key player like Posey for the season would be sunk the moment he went down.

Interviews with top prospects Brown and Panik

The Giants/MLB's video section got two nice interviews with Gary Brown and Joe Panik, where they answer some questions about their background, college experience, their 2011 performance, type of hitter they are, what they are working on in the AFL, and future plans. 

Brown

I've been very impressed so far by the interviews that Gary has given before and he was great in this one too.  This is the first time I've seen him not smile like a Cheshire Cat, he has a great smile usually, like he is just so happy to be in the position he is in (I think I've seen him in 3-5 interviews before).  He was very serious in this interview, barely cracked a smile at all that I can recall, though he did look like he did in prior interivews when he commented about liking to take a HBP. 

I like that he took on the Moneyball concept, which to me reflects perfectly what he has done in his career:  the most important thing is to get on base, walking to do that is one aspect of it, so is taking HBP.  If he can't figure out hitting in any particularly league, he'll adjust and get on-base via other methods.  But if he's hitting the ball well, why take the bat out of his hands by walking?

I find that the Moneyball topic is the key thing that separates the Saber-wannabes and those who know their stuff and are serious about it.  Walking is important but not to the extreme extent that many people make it to be.  There is a nuance to it that a lot of people don't get, it is important but not the only important thing.  Not being able to walk is not necessarily a bad trait if he is good at hitting the ball well.  A hit is much more valuable than a walk, you can advance the runners, you put pressure on the defense to make an error as well.  Also, a walk will never become a homer unless you can easily steal 2B, 3B, and home.  :^) 

Still, there is some importance, as there are those players who are not able to hit and thus need to be able to take walks to be able to add value as a hitter.  And ultimately, someone who can avoid swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone and swing only at strikes will be able to force the pitcher to come in with pitches that the hitter can handle and hit for a line drive or a hit somewhere.  But there are plenty of good hitters who do not take walks.  Sure, they are rarer and harder to find, but they do exist and they do provide a lot of good value as a player.

I guess it just bugs me a lot that people would point his lack of walks as a huge negative.  First of all, they based their analysis on one year's worth of data, his junior year when he was a hitting god.  Looking at his three years in college plus Cape Cod, he clearly was all about getting on base, whatever it takes.  Second, there are plenty of hitters who do well in the majors without walking that much.  Yes, it is better if he could take walks no matter what, but the focus was always on the lack of walks, not on the fact that he was hitting great and didn't need to take walks. 

As an analytical lark, I examined what would have happened if he took away 5 PA from his non-walk PA's and somehow magically changed them into five walks (no one really knows what would happen to a hitter if he suddenly tried to change his hitting style to take more walks, he might get more walks but much less hits plus additional outs as well; it would be like predicting the weather, i.e. right sometimes, but you can't really predict the rarer events, nor the complex sequence of results).  Using the valuations of each component of a non-walk PA, I found that his offensive production was REDUCED by converting his non-walk PA's into five walks.  He had so many hits, and so many of his hits were for extra bases, that the value of all the offense that could generate was higher than the offense generated by taking walks, even though a larger percent of those non-walk PAs were outs.  So he was better off hitting than trying to change and take a walk instead.

Panik

This is my first interview that I can recall seeing of Panik.  He was very poised, very humble, much like Brown, two really nice guys working hard to achieve their dreams.  He discussed the issue of switching to 2B in the AFL, really enjoyed the interview.  He has a nice smile too, a more serious face like Brown, maybe the interviewer asked them to do that?  Sounds like the same guy doing the interview.

There are also nice clips of them playing:  hitting and fielding.  Brown's batting stance is not so jittery anymore, so that was good to see.  Get to see Panik in the field too, that was nice.

Really nice, particulary in-depth interviews given how short, really, they are, allow us fans to get to know these two prospects.  Seeing these makes me root for them even more, they seem to be solid hard-working ballplayers who are not full of themselves.

Here are the links:

Gary Brown on playing in the AFL
Joe Panik on moving to second base in AFL

Giants Thoughts

Neither of them have been doing that well so far, but I understand it is just small samples.  As of the latest available stats, Brown is only hitting .220/.278/.300/.578 and Panik is only hitting .211/.302/.212/.513.  They are third and second worse on their team by OPS among the leaders on this list (not sure how many PA to qualify, but based on rough perusing of AB and BB, 30 is the lowest I could find, lowest AB is 27; also, sort by OPS to get most up to date stats, found lower ABs when sorted by BA for some reason).  At least they are doing better than Angel's Wunderkind Mike Trout (.222/.222/.289/.511) and not much worse than Nat's Wunderkind Bryce Harper (.214/.313/.381/.693).

But Panik does not appear to be totally overmatched.  Panik has done well with his batting discipline, he has only 3 strikeouts in 38 AB with 4 walks, both great ratios.  That is a 92% contact rate, which is great, 1.33 BB/K ratio (anything over 1.0 is great), and 10.5% BB/PA, which is good too.  However, his BABIP is only .229, which leads to the bad overall results and batting line. 

The fact that he isn't hitiing anything for extra bases suggest that while he's not being fooled in terms of striking out, he's also not able to do anything with the strikes he is hitting, he is not hitting them with much authority and either getting only singles or weak outs.  So that is bad, but given that his basic type of hitting is going for gap to gap line drives, this suggests that the pitching has an advantage over him at the moment but as he adjusts to and figures them out, he'll start hitting line drives again. 

Brown, however, appears to be overmatched to an extent but he's also suffering from some bad luck.  In 50 ABs, he only has 1 walk and 10 strikeouts.  That is a 80% contact rate, which is OK (good is 85%) but he needs to bring up his walk rate, that is just too low to sustain if he is to be our leadoff hitter.  Still, he is going with his bread and butter of HBP to boost up his OBP, it appears from the numbers that he already has 3 HBP in the 11 games he has played in so far.   His BABIP is .275, but he has 3 XBH in 11 hits so far, so he is making some hard contact when he is hitting the ball, so his poor hitting so far could be related to a simple case of bad luck with the BABIP gods.  Boosting him up to .325 BABIP would put him at 13 hits, for a batting line of roughly .260/.315/..340/.655 (and .360/.675 if he got an extra double among the extra hits).  At his .369 BABIP for San Jose, he would be at .295/.347/..400/.747 overall, roughly, assuming a slight uptick in XBH.  With some HR power that he normally tries for, that would push him closer to .800 OPS.

The cool thing with him is that while he realizes that as a lead-off hitter, he needs to figure out how to get on-base a lot, he also knows the value of hitting for extra-base power, including homeruns.  There are many speedsters who limit themselves to trying to get on base, ending up with a low OPS overall because their SLB is so low, like Burriss.  With just an uptick in power, the way Carney Lansford was trying to teach him to do, Burriss could be our starting 2B right now, instead of Franchez, because he'll be hitting more linedrives that will fall in for more hits as well as more extra-base hits.  Instead, he's probably going become, at best, a bench utility player, worse, a AAAA player bouncing up and down, as needs dictate.

Brown's philosophy at the plate, which he has espoused in the interviews I've seen him in before, encapsulates both getting on base (the OBP) as well as the driving in runs (SLG) components of the Runs Created formula.  He will always get HBP, it appears.  He will walk when he can't get on base via hitting (typically he did this in college, freshman and sophomore years), but if he's the leading hitter in the league (which he was in junior year, he was among top in BA, OBP, SLG, and thus OPS), he didn't focus so much on the walks as the power he was generating with his bat.  He wants to hit gap to gap and use his speed, but he also wants to get the regular HR as well.  He focuses on being an all-around hitter, which to me is kind of like a Rickey Henderson-lite:  not as much walks, hits, or homers, but that's Rickey's HOF standards, as what Brown has done is still pretty good overall.  He just needs to do it all at the major league level.

Brandon Crawford, meanwhile, has been doing well.  Playing SS while Panik plays 2B, he is hitting .353/.389/.588/.977 in 34 AB.  He has 7 K's for a 79% contact rate (OK, but not good) but only 2 walks, so he could stand to take a few more walks, so that it is closer to his K's, plus he could stand to not strikeout so much.  But neither is a big deal with so few games played so far and few ABs.  He's not going to hit that well forever, though, his BABIP is high at .423, there is no way he can sustain that at any level. 

But his 235 ISO is potentially repeatable, so if he can hit mid .200 BA and walk enough to reach .300 OBP, with that ISO, he will roughly be in the high 700 OPS range, which is more than enough for the Giants to play him at SS with his defense, heck, in that range, he would be a good offensive SS.  And even if he hits in the low .200 BA range, with that ISO, he would still be around 700 OPS (or slightly under), which is doable with his defense for him to be our starter in 2012.  Heck, if he is batting 8th for us, he probably can hit in the .650 OPS range and still be a productive SS for us, given his plus defense and OK (at that range) offense.  Anything above that would probably be gravy.  Still, he has under 50 PA, so it is very much a small sample size issue right now.

And that is a large part of looking at their stats right now, realizing that there are not that many ABs so far.  Still, there are some things that can be pointed out about each hitter that they can work on, whether they are doing well or doing poorly, overall.  There are some good things to point out as well, on a thus far basis, that if they continue, would be good signs.  Obviously, it would be nicer if they were all hitting like BCraw is hitting (though with a .423 BABIP, he's not going to continue that going for very much longer), but there is nothing to panic over yet, and there are some good signs for each, as well as things to work on.

The bad news of their performance so far is that most probably the highest Brown and Panik will probably be promoted to is AA, and thus 2013 is the more likely the earliest season they ascend to the majors permanently, particularly Panik.  Brown definitely will get promoted to AA Richmond, but Panik could end up at San Jose instead, like Brown did in his first full season as a pro, this season.  Brown could push the envelope with a good performance and make the majors by the end of 2012, but right now I don't see that happening with Panik given his difficulties in the AFL.  Still, I think Panik's decision to sign early has paid off, he has made his mark and got the AFL gig, a opportunity which he probably would not have gotten had he waited until the last minute to sign. 

I know the Giants said that they will not rush prospects, but as I noted, Panik is not exactly being dominated by pitchers in the AFL, which experts have said that the talent would be like between AA and AAA.  Personally, while I agree that the talent overall is like that, I think it is tougher than either because you are facing that top level of player every day, whereas when playing in those leagues, you get to play against a lot of organizational players.  Thus the Giants might push him up to AA, partly because his batting discipline is good, with the thought that he will figure it out  but also to pair up Brown and Panik atop the lineup and learn to play together, much like how they had Bumgarner and Posey together in order to give them some time together to work together.  Overall, though, the caution in Sabean's talk suggests that unless Panik heats up soon, he's most probably ending up in San Jose for the 2012 season.

And while Crawford most likely will cool off at some point, if he can keep his batting line in a good range, probably at least .800 OPS, he most probably will be given the chance to win the SS spot and the Giants will not consider signing any SS to a big money, long-term deal (meaning no Rollins).  Instead, they would do as they have been in recent years when keeping a spot open for a top prospect, sign a vet on the cheap who looks capable enough to keep the seat warm until the top prospect is ready, presumably sometime mid-season.  If they do sign Rollins to a long-term deal, then clearly they don't think much of Crawford's future.  But I don't think that is the scenario we will be facing by the end of the AFL season, I think Crawford is making his case, both in the AFL as well as his last month in the majors, that he's ready enough to start at SS for the Giants in 2012.

Looking Forward: Gary Brown

Great article on Giants prospect Gary Brown by incomparable Andy Baggerly, as everyone looks to next season and beyond, now that the Giants season will end soon.  He's had another great season dishing great information to us Giants fans, we are truly lucky to have him as one of our local scribes.  Some good bits I liked:

"This guy is going to be a big-league ballplayer," San Jose manager Andy Skeels said. "There's no doubt about it. He has everything he needs, and I don't think he needs anybody else to tell him that."

"I've still got more to learn, but I think I've shown what I'm capable of doing," he said. "Hopefully I can clean my up some of my mistakes in the Fall League and carry it into next season."

Skeels, the San Jose manager, believes the organization has earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to grooming talent. He notes that players such as Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval and Madison Bumgarner all thrived in San Francisco from the moment they arrived.

"Once we determine that Gary's ready, he really will be ready," Skeels said. "He's a focused player who understands all the noise is meaningless. And he shares a lot of the same traits with Buster and Bumgarner. This kid competes."

Brown concedes that he's not happy about one thing he heard this season.

"People keep saying I'm a singles hitter," said Brown, who is 6-foot-1, 190 pounds. "Maybe they think that because I'm a leadoff man, but that's not me. I've been a gap hitter my whole life. So that gets me a little riled up."

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Giants Reportedly Trade for Carlos Beltran

The rumored news is that the Giants have traded for Carlos Beltran, sending Zack Wheeler to the Mets.  Out of his $6M remaining on the contract, the Giants will get a reported $4M from the Mets and pay the remaining $2M.  Because Beltran is a 10-5 player, he gets 24 hours to reflect on the trade, but reportedly will approve it, according to a report by Tim Brown of Yahoo.
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Your 2011 Giants: Big 6 Prospects

I am selecting, in honor of the Big 6 himself, Christy Mathewson, the top 6 prospects of the Giants farm system, in my estimation. I would rather focus on the ones who are most likely to do significant damage for us up at the major league level at some point in the future, with some plus factor for doing it sooner than later.

As far as methodology goes, I don't really care to predict the players most likely to contribute this particular season, as that usually include players who make a utility contribution; most teams do not get a significant contributor (like a new starter) from the minor leagues each season, let alone 6, 10, or 11 of them.

And, frankly, most people who do these sort of stuff focus a significant amount of their ranking on whether a player is able to make the majors that season or not.  So, to be a little different, I try to focus more on the future potential rather than closeness to the majors, partly because that is the fun of prospect watching, part because I don't observe any of the prospects on the field, as others do.

What I do provide is my thoughts and analysis after reading through various available sources of information regarding the Giants prospects, including all the lists out there (which was captured quite nicely by Crazy Crabbers here).  And, as noted, I lean more towards potential than closeness to the majors.

And to add to the Crabber's bounty, here is the Minor League Baseball Analyst's Top 15:

1. Brandon Belt, 1B
2. Zack Wheeler, RHP
3. Francisco Peguero, OF
4. Gary Brown, OF
5. Thomas Neal, OF
6. Charlie Culberson, 2B
7. Tommy Joseph, C
8. Jarrett Parker, OF
9. Brandon Crawford, SS
10. Jose Casilla, RHP
11. Chuckie Jones, OF
12. Ehire Adrianza, SS
13. Michael Main, RHP
14. Heath Hembree, RHP
15. Chris Dominguez, 3B

I love reading the Minor League Baseball Analyst, whole-heartedly recommend it.

2011 Giants Big 6 Prospects

In years past, it would have been hard to fill out the list without people who don't really deserve to be on the list. There would usually be a number of them who was a huge question mark on what type of contribution they will make at the major league level ever. And that is not a knock on the Giants farm system in the past, per se, the general rule of thumb is that the farm system at any time has four players who will make a mark in the majors in their career, 2 starters, 2 utility/relievers, but the Giants were even having problems with even 2-3 who look like sure things at times.

But 2011 is different again, just like 2009 and 2010, and we have a lot of players. We are starting to built up a lot of depth in the system and that will impact the majors over the next 2-4 seasons. The Giants were able to accomplish this because it had a lot of high picks in 2007 to boost this up, and made a number of astute selections in 2008, as if they had high picks, in selecting Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, players who at some point were expected to fall in the first round, some early in the first. And 2009 had a number of excellent early picks in Wheeler, Joseph, Dominguez, and Stoffel.  And 2010 had a number of excellent picks in Brown, Parker, Rosin, Hembree, Kickham, Chuckie Jones,

This year, it was pretty clear who the top 2 were but like last season, there were a lot of prospects who could make one of the four three spots, and I will list them in an honorable mention section.

Here are the Big 6 I've selected for 2011:

1. Brandon Belt:  He is the best by far, has a lot of potential plus he's basically in the majors sooner than later.  His story is well known:  Giants overdraft in Round 5 where many thought closer to Round 10, the former pitcher had his swing reworked suing new video tool leading to him leading the minors in a number of stats across the three levels he played in 2010, including AAA.  Showing surprising stolen-base prowess to go with power, he used the whole field while being disciplined enough to take walks at high rates.  Some have called him a left-handed Buster Posey and Will Clark said that Belt has a better swing than he did.  Should be in the heart of the Giants lineup for most of this decade, the Decade of the Giants, hitting for good (20-25 HR) power and average (plus high OBP), probably in the #5 spot (Sandoval, Posey, Belt).
2. Zack Wheeler:  He is the best pitcher by far, in a system left almost barren by quick promotions of pitchers in recent seasons.  He would be more highly ranked on most Top 100 overall prospect lists if he did not miss half the season due to a torn fingernail; yet, still, many ranked him roughly in the 50-75 range in their Top 100 list.  High strikeout rates due to mid-to-high 90's heater, he also got an extremely high percentage of ground balls.  He also has a good slider and power curveball.  Good mechanics seals the deal, he's a potential #1 starter.  Belt only beats him out because Belt is SOOO close to making the majors.  
3. Gary Brown:  With speed to challenge anyone - he reportedly can get to 1B (as RHB) as fast as the best LHB - he can get to many balls in CF that other cannot.  This also helps in elevating his BABIP plus is handy for stealing bases with abandon.  Most analysts said that he's plus plus in defense in CF but that his jittery batting stance scared off most teams despite him leading the Big West in OPS, not just last year, but over the past seven seasons, which included Evan Longoria's breakout season (his ISO also beat out Longoria too).  The major negative that anyone can throw at him is his lack of walks in 2010 in college, but they are ignoring his high walk totals when he was not that good a hitter his first season on college and the walks he got, albeit small samples, but still a significant percentage, in pro ball in 2010:  he had 6 walks in only 54 PA, that's 11%, which is good.  He's my guy to watch for 2011, I think he will prove that he knows how to take walks plus do all the other stuff the experts say he can, and if so, he can rise fast, like Belt in 2010 and Sandoval in 2008, and be pushing for the majors by season's end.
4. Francisco Peguero:  I've never been impressed with him but the major prospect services have, so I have paid attention to him.  Baseball America says that he has the best blend of power and speed in the Giants system.  He has plus plus speed, which helps him provide plus plus defense.  With Brown around, he's probably headed for RF, which he has played in the minors.  Doesn't walk a lot, but like Sandoval coming up the minors, he has kept his strikeout rate down low against pitchers much older than he is, so that bodes well for him climbing up to the majors.  His coverage of the plate has been very good, as he exhibits good bat speed.  He'll be in AA in 2011, most likely, but could be pushing for the majors by season's end with another good season.
5. Heath Hembree:  Reported 100 MPH in college, the Giants fixed up something with the RHP's delivery and he went from walking 18 in 29 IP in college to outright dominating in the Arizona League, striking out 22 in only 11 IP, but more importantly, 0, zero, nil, nada, walks.  BA says that he profiles as a premium closer and that is what I'm thinking too.  Brian Wilson won't last forever nor stay here forever, so Hembree would be someone we could groom to take over in 2-3 seasons, should Wilson not be around at that point.  At worse, Hembree could be a shutdown set-up guy, which can be almost equally valuable sometimes.  
6. Rafael Rodriguez:  He is on this list because he's a true 5-tool talent.  As much as people want to complain about his 2010 season, that was his 17 YO season, and it would be too much to expect him to dominate out of the chute, especially since he's playing against much older guys, most 2-4 years older than he is (and more experienced).  Yet, his strikeout rate is not that high, around 19%, which means a contact rate of 81% when you ideally want to see the batter at 85% or above.  That should come with time and experience.  His power too.  Meanwhile, he's learning the nuances of fielding and with his strong arm and his speed, he probably could play any of the OF positions when he reaches the majors.  He's expected to make his full season debut in 2011 in low-A Augusta.

Now I can see people scratching their head about the last two.  Again, I lean towards potential and not closeness to the majors.  If the majors were valued more in this ranking a lot of other players would have been in the mix, for as noted, the Giants have been doing well in stocking the farm with players with potential in recent drafts and they are rising up close to the majors soon.  They will be my honorary mentions, basically in order.

Honorary Mentions

• Nick Noonan:  He didn't break out like I thought he would last season, but he was hampered by recurring hamstring problems.  Also, they redid his batting mechanics, using the same video system they used to redo Belt's and the results were very positive:  he started driving the ball and generating better bat speed.  The Giants are talking about moving him back to SS, and if he can field decently there, his offense would carry the day. I think he's someone to keep a close eye on, as well as Brown, they could be pushing on the majors by season end, even if he ends up back at 2B, I think he's on the verge of putting it together as a batter.  Probably repeats AA, but could join bottleneck in AAA by season's end, on merit.
• Ehire Adrianza:  In the past decade, he probably would have made the list, but the team's system is deepening, as I noted.  He reportedly could field SS in the majors now but his offense is what he needs to improve on.  Still, people need to remember, he was only 20 YO last season in a league of 22-24 YO pitchers, and yet he still held his own with the bat, 20% strikeouts/80% contact rate: remember, San Jose's background ups strikeout rate for hitters.  And he gets a good amount of walks too and flashes the speed to use them to steal bases.  He's probably going to repeat in SJ, particularly if Noonan is at SS in AA.
• Brandon Crawford:  Also with major league ready defense at SS, like Ehire, he just strikes out way too much.  Breaking his hand didn't help either.  Maybe he'll try out the new video system and take a leap, like Belt and Noonan.  Should be SS in AAA for 2011.  
• Tommy Joseph:  Probably best power-hitting prospect and he did not disappoint, 16 HR in 436 AB as 18 YO in low-A Augusta, but struck out a lot too with few walks.  C but a lot to learn and scouts felt 1B was his eventual position. 
• Thomas Neal:  The projection systems love him, think he can be solid regular starting OF this season in majors.  He took slight step back in 2010, but I blame EL for sapping his power, which was his plus tool, much like how Ishikawa suffered there (and Crawford, for that matter).  I think he'll be better in AAA playing LF, where he'll probably be in 2011.  
• Eric Surkamp:  He's healthy and looking to continue where he left off:  leading Giants minor leaguers in strikeouts again.  Got to love anyone with more than 1 K per inning and K/BB of almost 5, but since he's doing it as a polished pitcher, and not via one or two great knockout/strikeout pitch, he'll have to prove it at every level, like Pucetas.  I would expect him to start in AA and to move fast to AAA, he could be our 6th starter alternative by then if he continues to dominate like this.  
• Charlie Culberson:  Breakout season, finally (and remember, only 21 YO in 2010), continued doing well in AFL.  Now he has to repeat, probably plays 2B in AA, but very exciting burst of power, would be great to have at 2B (or maybe even 3B, where he played in 2009).
• Chuckie Jones:  Had great start to pro career with an offensive explosion but 61 strikeouts in 165 AB is a huge question mark.  Still, hit very well as 17 YO in AZL, 2-4 years younger and less experienced, so I would cut him huge slack on the strikeouts for now.  Huge power potential, idolized Pujols growing up, grew up in area, St. Louis was ready to draft in next round.  That's why better for teams to overdraft players they like than risk losing to another team.
• Jarrett Parker:  5 tool potential put him high on some Giants prospect lists.  Nice package overall, still have to see more, as he had a down season in college in 2010.

There are many other prospects who I would normally at least produce a blurb on, but I've been busy lately and don't have time. DrB has a very good list at his site, and just continue reading all the stuff he followed that up with, lots of great info there.

As I noted before, the sad fact about prospects is that the vast majority will fail to become a major leaguer at any point, and an even smaller percentage ever become the starters we all love and follow.   That's part of the reason I keep my list to 6, it is just so hard to make the majors as a starter that the Top 6 typically are those who make it.  Still, part of the fun of prospect hounding is when prospects like Jonathan Sanchez, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo, Brandon Belt, rise up the system fast and make the majors.  Unfortunately, there is no way to know who will make that rise, you have to monitor and observe and hope for the best.

Sad Story of Angel:  Continued

Unfortunately, sometimes real life intrudes on our revelry.  Angel Villalona, who probably would have made the list somewhere this season, if not for his murder charge, is still being prosecuted for the murder that he was accused of doing.  His visa has been revoked and I believe he was able to post bail and stay out of jail, living with his family, while the preparations for the trial continues.

Until there is a gun with his fingerprints on it, I don't see how he will get convicted, as there are as many people saying he shot the fatal shot as there are people who swear to his innocence because he was near them when the firing happened.  Too many people on both sides for the truth to be exposed in the courtroom.

The odd thing is that if he is able to be found not guilty, assuming the trial is over sometime this year, he'll still be only 21 YO for next season and probably would be OK in San Jose, eventually, once he goes through instructional league to get back into baseball shape.  However, given how fat he got previously as a pro, I would fear that he has gain a tremendous amount of weight while sitting around in jail and now at home.

Giants hand out 22 invites to 2011 big league camp

The Giants recently announced the 22 non-roster invites to the 2011 big league camp (reported on by Chris Haft).  The players are:

• Brandon Belt
• Gary Brown
• Brandon Crawford
• Charlie Culberson
• Casey Daigle
• Brad Eldred
• Terry Evans
• Waldis Joaquin
• Tommy Joseph
• Shane Loux
• Guillermo Mota
• Nick Noonan
• Juan Perez
• Wilmin Rodriguez
• Felix Romero
• Hector Sanchez
• Chris Stewart
• Jason Stoffel
• Ryan Verdugo
• Ryan Vogelsong
• Jackson Williams
• Matt Yourkin

I will be most interested in how the Brandon's do, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford, plus Gary Brown.  I would also be keenly watching Charlie Culberson as well.