The Expected Costs of Obtaining Good Players From the Draft: 2008

I thought it would be interesting to see what I can derive for the expected cost of obtaining a good player in the first round, based on the probabilities that I had derived in my draft study and the bonuses paid by teams in the latest draft.  I've been meaning to write on this in a gigantic post about my draft study, but I had this thought so I thought I would write on it now.

The concept behind this is elemental probability where the cost of the activity is divided by the probability to derive what the expected cost would be of a particular event.  For example, suppose the odds are one out of three for a successful outcome and the cost of each is $3M;  then the expected cost of one success is $9M.

Draft Probabilities

Here are the probabilities of selecting a good player via the draft, based on ranges of picks, for the first round:

  1-   5:  43%

  6-10:  23%

11-20:  16%

21-30:  11%

2008 Bonuses Paid

Here are the average bonus paid in the 2008 draft, based on ranges of picks:

  1-   5:  $5.50M

  6-10:  $2.25M

11-20:  $1.70M

21-30:  $1.30M

I took out outliers of $3M+ bonuses in both the 11-20 and 21-30 ranges, as they improperly skewed the .

Expected Cost of Finding a Good Player via the First Round of 2008 Draft

Following is the expected cost of finding a good player via the 2008 draft in the first round, based on the information above.

  1-   5:  $12.8M

  6-10:    $9.8M

11-20:  $10.6M

21-30:  $11.8M

The average across the four ranges equals $11.25M

Giants Thoughts

What this means is that, on average, a team can expect to spend approximately $11.25M to find a good player via the draft.   It also gives you a back of napkin evaluation of what major league teams think are the odds of a prospect making it to the majors and being good.  Rafael Rodriguez was giving $2.5M, so that's about 20% odds of him becoming a good MLB player.  The A's gave roughly Inoa $4M, so they think his odds are around 36%.

It also gives you a way of judging how many players one can expect to get out of the draft.  For example, the other day, I noted the Giants spent a little over $9M on the draft in 2008.  Thus the Giants should be getting roughly 0.8 of a good player from the 2008 draft.  You add them up over a number of years, using this methodology, and you can get a rough idea whether Giants and Sabean is ahead or behind in developing good players from the draft.

In addition, it also allows you to compare obtaining free agents versus drafting players.   The money spent on the draft is not insignificant.  People like to look only at the cost of the successful players making the majors, but there are all the costs involved with drafting all the other players who never make the majors or just briefly.   In other words, the roughly $11M spent searching for that good player.  

Still, the cost of young draftees is still much cheaper than getting a good free agent, but the argument can be made that sacrificing a draftee in one year is justifiable if you acquire a useful player who can make a contribution now, when you need it, and not later when you don't know what situation you will be in, competing or re-building, or even if the draftee, which has a very high failure rate, ever be a regular in the major leagues.

Belying the Lie: Giants Are Not Cheap in the Draft

The funny thing about us humans is that we all look at the facts that affirm your impression of the situation, just to reinforce that "we are right".  I'm as guilty of it as anyone, that's why I try harder to get beyond that and test my beliefs.  That is what led me to research the draft, because I too, like every other Giants fan, thought "what's wrong with the Giants drafting, why are they so lousy?"  Turned out that winning and being one of the best teams in the majors greatly reduces your success rate developing players.

That brings me to today's grab bag of fun facts.  Baseball America graciously make a number of their content available for free and one is their Ask BA column, to which I link here.   In this one, they list (essentially) the final total for draft expenditures by club for 2008 and 2007.  It is the total spending by each team for bonuses.  

Now, most comments I've seen lately, after "the Neukom Way" was announced in his press conference, is that "finally" the Giants are focusing on player development, a feeling they have held onto, hard, since the Giants signed Michael Tucker to avoid a draft pick and use the money more productively in the short-term. 

Giants Been Big Spenders

So it might surprise these hardy souls that the Giants have been among the biggest spenders on bonuses the past two drafts.  In the 2008 draft, the Giants spent a little over $9M on bonuses, which would have been a record spend in the 2007 draft where $8M was the high bar.  They were beat out by three of the teams who drafted ahead of them, Royals, Rays, and Pirates, and by the Red Sox, who shelled out Top 5-10 type money to draft picks later in the draft.  The Giants were 5th overall in spending on bonuses, and could have been higher as they were pursuing hard a couple of prospects who ended up not signing, who were highly rated but fell for whatever reasons.

In the 2007 draft, with all their extra picks, they ended up 6th in spending with $7.4M spent.   The teams ahead were the Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Nationals, and Tigers (not in that order, though all were roughly right around $8M spent, about $100K apart). 

Over the two years, the Giants were third in spending on the draft, with $16.5M spent on bonuses for draft picks.   The Rays were first with $17.9M and the Royals were second with $17.8M.  The Red Sox took 4th with $15.4M spent.  This all before the end of the Bonds era, all before the Giants Way.

Myth of Giants Cheapness  

The Giants have never been cheap, either, the way some have described them.  Some observers have said that the Giants "draft down", i.e. select prospects who they can sign for a cheaper amount, just because they have been in the habit of selecting players that other teams and the draft experts think should be drafted lower.  

The biggest example of this I can think of was the selection of Nate Schierholtz.   Experts were surprised he was drafted so high.  Yet, he's the only one to make the majors out of the picks in the 2nd round after him and between him and the next Giants pick of Brian Buscher, the only ones to make more of an impact in the majors are Chris Ray and Ryan Garko, the other 27 have either not made the majors or not done much in the majors, either in AB or OPS.   So the Giants appear to have made the right choice here.

In addition, I had researched this previously and the only year the Giants truly were cheap was in 2003 when they had two who were very underpaid relative to the draftees around him, and two who were slightly underpaid.  Still, Schierholtz was paid over the amount paid to those following him, which is as expected.    

And there were no first round pick who received a bonus that was lower than the average of what the guys behind him got.   In fact, for both Lincecum and Bumgarner, they received bonuses that were above slot, and obviously Posey got way above slot.   The Giants have been anything but cheap with their first round draft picks, particularly in the past few years.

Posey Period Pegins: Buster Posey Pens Line for $6.2M Bonus

OK, this is the latest from Andy Baggarly and apparently it came from Baseball America, which, by the way, he is an excellent correspondent for. According to the report, he signs for $6.2M, the largest up-front bonus in draft history, as it is not a major league deal (nor was he a two sport player like Tim Beckham, who had his bonus split), and thus the Giants are paying that full amount immediately instead of spread over a number of years (remember, they ended up reducing their payroll this season from their original mid-90-mil to high 80's, which will just cover Buster's bonus).

So it is both larger than Tim Beckham's bonus and Matt Weiter's bonus, plus, per Baggarly's comment here about how both Alvarez and Posey wanted to have the highest bonus this year, apparently Posey won that battle, as BA reported that Alvarez signed for a straight $6M bonus. It is also higher than any bonus paid over the past four drafts, beating out Weiter's $6M in 2007, Justin Upton's $6.1M in 2005.

I guess Baggarly's source has egg on his or her face, as this was not close to the $7.5M figure he reported. It ended up being pretty close to what I was hoping it would be, I was thinking $5-6M. I'm happy it is only $200K more than that. And I guess Allfrank will be happy too. :^)

All in all, I did sweat some bullets after 9PM passed and there was no news, but it made too much sense for both sides not to make a deal that both sides would be happy with. I heard some yahoo on KNBR suck up to Damon Bruce and scream at the Giants for signing Zito and not overpaying Posey a few millions to get him signed "three months ago (sic)" [not quite right, it was 2.5 months ago], while Bruce yells at the Giants for that as well. (CLICK, turn on my daughter's Camp Rock CD for the umpteen millionth time, anything than hearing the ravings on KNBR at night, I used to love late night sportstalk...).

Well, duh, unlike what many think, Sabean has been pretty smart over the years, certainly it was unquestioned early in his tenure, but given the excellent state of the pitching rotation, I'll forgive any of the trespasses that bothers others. When all is said and done, the Giants now look set at catcher for many years, both offensively and defensively, with Posey, as well as in the pitching rotation and closer spot. Hinshaw looks good thus far for one of the two key setup positions (don't forget how Munter flamed out after one good season though...) and there are a lot of candidates for the other spot, though Walker is starting to look done (however, people forget that he recovered from TJS just at the end of last season, so his arm strength is probably not built up yet, and still forgot how good he was at the beginning of this season, so I have some hope for him next season).

Go Giants!

Giants Draft Signings, or Lack Thereof

Andy Baggarly had a nice post on this a couple of weeks ago on his blog, I regularly check him out, lots of good stuff there. He wrote about how Giants fans should calm down about there not being any movement on the draft picks signing. Anyway, why bring this up so much later?

Baseball America has a post today on their blog, on the latest first-round signing, ending a drought of 15 days, when Brett Lawrie signed for $1.7M with the Brewers. He was the 16th pick, a Canuck, who is another sure-thing hitter who probably won't play at his drafted position that the Brewers selected (they did that last year too with LaPorta).

They noted, and it is data that supports of Baggarly's blog post, that last year, the first time with this deadline, while all 30 first-rounders signed, 13 of them didn't agree to terms (nearly 50%, that is, 43%) until the last two days that they could sign, August 14-15. And all of the Giants first four draft picks - Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford - were all considered first round possibilities at some point prior to the draft, so it will be harder to sign them all, but not impossible, as I had written before.

Gillaspie Signing Soon?

Also, according to this report, Gillaspie has agreed to sign with the Giants for $975,000 bonus and other incentives. A newspaper local to Gillaspie reported that he was seen getting onto a plane headed for Arizona on Monday morning, presumably to the Giant's minor league complex, which started the rumors going. But the Giants have officially said that his deal is not done yet.

The Giants picks after Posey are laggards though. Gillaspie is one of only two supplemental round picks who have not signed yet, and his reported bonus is basically what the pick ahead of him and pick behind him got, so right around slot. Kieschnick, the third rounder, is one of only three third rounders who have not signed yet. Crawford is one of only six fourth rounders who have not signed yet.

But this is not general Giants operating procedure, they have generally tried to sign all their draft picks quickly and get them into the system as fast as possible. It is when the draft picks, for whatever reasons, decide to drag out the negotiations, that it takes longer to sign them.

Given how Wendell Fairley has struggled this season, I wonder if he might be higher on the learning curve if he would have just forgoed the extra few thousand of dollars (literally and actually) and just signed for slot early on and got to go play some professional baseball last season, like Alderson, Noonan, Williams, and Culberson did.

Let the Negotiations Begin!

It has been reported that Tim Beckham, the first pick overall received $6.15M bonus from the Rays. I don't know why Rosenthal says that Top Picks that are High School players typically get less than college players, it has always been the rule of thumb that they get more because they have the leverage of going to college instead of signing with the drafting team. I have not heard this exception for top picks, but the example he gave certainly holds, David Price got $8.5M last year and Beckham "only" got $6.15M. Perhaps it has to do with college prospects being that much more developed and ready for the majors atop the draft.

Note: the $8.5M figure must be the total value including the fact that he signed a major league contract. According to my handy dandy Baseball America book, his bonus was "only" $5.6M, which was backloaded, and that would mean that the major league contract included $2.9M in salary. And that technically means that Beckham got more bonus than Price received, though obviously a lesser contract in total dollars overall.

Now, how this applies to the Giants:

1) This is like the first domino falling, Alvarez and Hosmer might still take to the deadline, but Matusz and Buster Posey are not Boras clients and will base their demands relative to what Beckham got as the 1st pick. Matusz signing would give us another data point to calibrate against Posey. A lot of the waiting is often just waiting for the guy before you signing so that you don't leave any dollars on the table.

2) In addition, Posey was considered strongly for the #1 pick and thus this signing gives an indication of Posey's worth. Then again, Lincecum was also considered for the #1 pick but "settled" for something around what the #8 pick got.

Giants Thoughts

Many commenters seem to think that Posey would use Weiter's contract as a starting point but most comments I've seen comparing the two says that Weiter is clearly the better prospect. Many also based their analysis on the rumored $12M demand but, again, I think that was just a red herring that Posey's advisors did to push Posey to a team more ready to compete than the teams typically up top.

That said, I think Posey's advisors do want more than the $2.7M bonus or so slotted for the #5 pick. I am still comfortable with what I wrote before, that they will start negotiations in the $5-6M range and would be happy with something between $3.0M and $4.9M. That would put them comfortably around what the #2-#3 picks got last year, plus the Giants indicated that a major league contract would not be out of the question, so if you tack that on top, like Rosenthal did with Price, that would push the deal up to the $6-8M range, or similar to what the #1 pick got between this year and last year.

As I had linked in a previous post, Posey comes from very humble beginnings and I don't think that he is looking to get every dollar he can get, he just wants something fair, much like what Lincecum wanted.

Sidenote: Wouldn't it be cool if Posey wins the Golden Spike? That would give us two of the last three winners, as Lincecum won in 2006 (Price in 2007).

More on Giants Draft

Just ran across this site I had forgotten about - Perfect Game Crosschecker - that had posted information about our draft picks:

• Buster Posey (R.1; 5th overall):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Originally recruited to Florida State as a pitcher, Posey spent his freshman year with the Seminoles as a shortstop only to move behind the plate as a sophomore. He added closer responsibilities to his repertoire this spring as a junior. His ability to adapt easily to such diverse positions speaks volumes about his athletic ability, makeup and feel for the game, though he still is working on some of the finer points of catching. Scouts said Posey was easily the best in the Cape Cod League last summer at catching, blocking and throwing, and the one catcher with above-average arm strength. He has on-line carry on his throws and unloads the ball quickly. His throws are a consistent 1.85 to 1.87 to second base. The most significant area he needed to improve from last summer was his footwork and he largely accomplished that in the fall at Florida State. He also became more accomplished receiving balls better down in the zone. Though he has limited raw power, Posey has a contact-oriented approach and hits to all fields with wood. He made significant strides at the plate in the second half of the Cape Cod League season as he used his hands more efficiently while eliminating his shoulders from his swing. He batted .281-3-19 last summer after hitting .382-3-65 with 21 doubles in the spring at Florida State.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/1): Posey enjoyed a breakout season, ranking among NCAA Division I leaders in many hitting categories while batting .469-16-66 with 43 walks and only 17 strikeouts (through May 15). He has also continued to polish his defensive skills behind the plate. There has been plenty of discussion about the home-state Tampa Bay Rays selecting Posey with the first pick in the draft. If you want a solid comparison for Posey, think of North Carolina’s B.J. Surhoff, a catcher/shortstop who was the first pick in the 1985 draft.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Conor Gillaspie (R.1s):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Gillaspie had a solid sophomore season at Wichita State, hitting .325-6-53, but nothing to suggest he would have the breakout summer like he had in the Cape Cod League, where he topped the league in batting (.345), slugging (.673) and extra-base hits (21) on his way to earning league MVP honors. He showed a serious ability to square up balls, gave away few at-bats and took what pitchers gave him, pulling inside pitches and going the other way with pitches on the outer half of the plate. He drove numerous balls to the gaps with developing power. Almost overnight, he moved near the head of the class among the top college hitters in the 2008 class. He was steady defensively at third with good hands and arm strength, but scouts question his range, especially going to his left. Gillaspie has a tireless work ethic and unusually high expectations for himself. He is always taking extra hitting and looking for ways to improve his game, but he can be unusually hard on himself when he falters.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Gillaspie furthered his reputation as one of the top hitters in college baseball this spring, hitting .421-10-77 and throwing in eight triples, 16 steals and 36 walks for added measure. He was at his best as the season wore on and hit two home runs and drove in five in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game. Scouts question how much over-the-fence power Gillaspie projects, but there seems to be no question that he has the bat speed and hitting skills to hit line drives at all levels. Gillaspie did struggle defensively at third base, making 16 errors and fielding less than .900. Scouts said that no one area was at fault, that he was inconsistent both throwing and catching the ball.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Roger Kieschnick (R.3):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Kieschnick has the makings of becoming a five-tool talent, but hasn’t put everything together yet. He spent two summers with Team USA and his most obvious improvement from 2006 to 2007 came at the plate. The raw power he routinely displayed in batting practice in his first season manifested into in-game power last summer, enabling him to improve his home run total from one to a team-leading seven. He also improved his total at Texas Tech from nine as a freshman to 13 as a sophomore. He showed more pull power and stayed inside balls well, enabling him to drive pitches from right-center to left-center, but his swing is still a little stiff and he remains prone to striking out. He lacks looseness and rhythm at the plate, but he makes hard contact and the ball jumps off his bat. His speed, arm strength and defensive skills are all average to plus tools, though he still needs work on getting better angles on balls in the outfield. Kieschnick has the intangibles to succeed as well. He’s a mature, level-headed player who plays the game aggressively. He should continue to grow into his game.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Kieschnick’s 2008 season was a duplicate of his sophomore campaign as he hit with power, commanded the strike zone well, ran the bases well and played an excellent right field. He still didn’t show the ability to hit for average (.305-17-65, 35 walks) as much as scouts expected, given his tools. College outfielders with a strong, athletic tool package are rare in this draft and that should guarantee Kieschnick a slot in the top two rounds.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Brandon Crawford (R.4):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Crawford had a poor 2007 summer season in the Cape Cod League for Orleans, hitting just .189-4-14 with 45 strikeouts while committing 13 errors—high among league shortstops. He showed flashes of his considerable ability, particularly with his speed, range and above-average arm strength, but his raw lefthanded power and overall hitting ability didn’t translate well from BP into game situations. All could be forgotten by this spring, however, if he plays to his potential—or even returns to his sophomore form at UCLA, when he batted .335-7-55. With the possible exception of his bat, Crawford has legitimate five-tool ability and could be the first college shortstop drafted in 2008. He is normally a sound defender with excellent hands and footwork. He needs to be more consistent in the field, however, as he is capable of making the spectacular play but often botches the routine ones. His arm is both strong and accurate, and is a significant weapon but he tends to rely on it too much. He is prone to sitting back on balls hit to him and letting his arm do most of the work. He needs to be more aggressive coming in on balls and getting rid of them quicker. Crawford has good poise for his age, but just needs to figure it out with the bat.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Crawford continued to tease scouts with his first-round tools, but didn’t perform like a first-rounder most of the 2008 season. He hit a modest .288-5-39 for an underachieving UCLA team and struck out at a high rate (54 times in 198 at-bats). His bat remains his biggest question mark. He swings and misses too often, particularly when he chases off-speed pitches. He has poor pitch recognition and is prone to being too pull-conscious. His greatest strength continues to be his defense. He’s a sure-handed shortstop with range and arm strength. He has playable speed.—AS
• Edwin Quirate (R.5): SCOUTING REPORT: Quirarte hasn’t received the exposure that a number of other college closers have in this year’s draft, but he has quietly improved his stock to where he may be picked as early as the fifth round. He was used as a starter in his first two seasons with the Matadors, with unimpressive results, but found his niche in a role where his competitive nature worked best and he could unleash his fastball in short bursts. It was clocked at a steady 90-93 mph and enabled him to post a 3-3, 1.86 record with eight saves. He continued to use his slider and split-finger as secondary pitches, but his command of those pitches is just average.—ALLAN SIMPSON
• Eric Surkamp (R.6):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Surkamp worked in tandem with his former Moeller High pitching mate Andrew Brackman at the front of the N.C. State rotation last season before Brackman, who was drafted in the first round by the New York Yankees, was sidelined with a sore arm that led to Tommy John surgery. Surkamp struggled to win games when Brackman went down and ended up with a 4-5, 3.47 record with 84 strikeouts and 27 walks in 96 innings. Despite his big, strong frame—and, in stark contrast to Brackman, who topped out at 99 mph—Surkamp does not throw particularly hard and his stuff is considered marginal by pro standards. His fastball is just in the 86-89 mph range though will touch 90, but he has an advanced feel for pitching and can keep hitters off balance with a three-pitch mix. He rarely throws consecutive pitches at the same speed or to the same location. He went 2-0, 1.85 with 26 strikeouts in 24 innings for Orleans of the Cape Cod League last summer, before being added to Team USA’s roster for the latter part of its international schedule. If Surkamp can somehow increase the velocity on his fastball even 2-3 mph, it would help his stock considerably in the draft, but most scouts believe he is what he is and project he’ll be a 5th-10th round pick in 2008. He has a good changeup and an average breaking ball but needs to spot those pitches, along with his fastball, consistently to be effective.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Surkamp was pretty much what he was a year ago—a big lefthander with a good feel for pitching but ordinary stuff. He went 5-2, 4.39 with 82 strikeouts in 70 innings as one of N.C. State’s two primary starters. He pitched better late in the season, raising hopes he’ll be drafted closer to the fifth round than the 10th.—AS
• Aaron King (R.7):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Pitt CC sophomore third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall has garnered most of the attention from scouts this spring among top prospects in the North Carolina junior college ranks, but King has also garnered his share of intrigue. Though he wasn’t unknown to scouts as a high school senior at North Carolina’s Fred T. Foard High, where he pitched on the same staff as Clemson-recruit Trent Rothlin, Ford’s fastball was mostly 88-89 mph and he didn’t have a breaking ball. His command was below average. He’s obviously made enormous strides over the last year. The big lefthander has a live arm with a fastball in the 90-93 mph range. A downhill plane provides good life on the pitch low in the zone, with sink at the knees and arm-side tailing action. His secondary pitches—a long, sweeping slurve at 70-74 mph that lacks crispness and an adequate 81-84 mph changeup—also rely on location to be effective. King is very aggressive and holds nothing back on each pitch. But he is more thrower than pitcher at this stage of his development. His size and arm strength, though, are significant attributes that will keep scouts coming back.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): King was everything he promised to be this spring with a fastball up to 94 mph, though it was more commonly in the 90-92 range. Physically, he fits the profile of the big, powerful, loose lefthander. He still has a way to go in streamlining his delivery, but he has made significant strides in adding movement to his fastball and developing a curveball that now grades as average. He has a changeup, but rarely uses it. The command of all his pitches is significantly better. King was dominant as a junior college freshman, posting a 5-4, 1.91 record with 98 strikeouts in 66 innings. He walked 34, but was touched up for only 38 hits. He has the whole package for a team that might willing to take a run at him in the first couple of rounds, but most clubs don’t feel comfortable enough taking a junior college pitcher with a limited history that early.—AS
• Scott Barnes (R.8):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Barnes has made a lot of strides in his evolution as a pitcher since he was offered $200,000 to sign out of a Massachusetts high school in 2005. He went 7-2, 2.93 with 99 strikeouts in 95 innings as a sophomore at St. John’s. He sought to continue his development during the summer in the Cape Cod League but left in the middle of his second start with tendonitis and was shut down for the season. Tall and lanky with a loose, quick, power arm, Barnes’ fastball explodes at 90-93 mph with slight tailing action to the first base side. He also has a slurve-like breaking ball but still needs to refine his circle changeup. He maintains a good arm slot and speed on the pitch, but it lacks fade or sinking action. Barnes’ three-quarters delivery also needs cleaning up as he throws with a slinger-like arm action. He has a focused, confident, high-energy approach to pitching with good pitchability and projects as a starter in pro ball—providing his changeup continues to develop.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Barnes’ velocity was up and down most of this spring, ranging from 87-91 mph, but he started throwing his fastball by hitters more consistently later in the year when it reached 92-93 mph. His command of the pitch was better, too, and he mixed in a near-average slider and a fair change, which he didn’t throw very often. As the leader of St. John’s deep pitching staff, he went 7-3, 3.69 with 45 walks and a team-high 90 strikeouts in 90 innings. Long-time area scouts compared his frame, stuff and approach to pitching to former St. John’s lefthander and ex-big leaguer C.J. Nitkowski, the ninth overall pick in the 1994 draft. While there were questions early in the season whether Barnes justified his status as the state’s top prospect, he solidified himself late in the season as a solid second- or third rounder—possibly even a sandwich pick of his home-state Boston Red Sox, if that club makes drafting a player with local ties a priority.—AS
• Ryan Verdugo (R.9):
  SCOUTING REPORT (3/1): Verdugo was one of the key recruits LSU’s second-year coaching staff pinned its hopes on to jumpstart the once-mighty Tigers program, which has been a Southeastern Conference also-ran the last two years. The Skagit Valley (Wash.) JC transfer was installed as the No. 2 starter in the rotation this spring after impressing in the fall with a fastball in the 88-91 mph range, topping at 92. His changeup and 12-to-6 curveball were also effective pitches. Verdugo, a fourth-year junior, has traveled a varied path since being drafted by the Philadelphia Phillies out of a Washington high school in 2004. He attended Oregon’s Division III George Fox College as a freshman but almost immediately blew out his elbow and had Tommy John surgery. Shortly thereafter, he transferred to Skagit Valley and spent the 2006 season there exclusively as a DH. He was finally healthy enough to resume pitching in 2007 and impressed Northwest scouts with his strong, athletic body, quick left arm and compact arm action from an abbreviated windup. He has difficulty throwing all his pitches consistently for strikes as he struggles with his delivery, but he is still able to compete with fringe stuff and command. Verdugo might have gone much sooner in the 2007 draft than the 47th round but his high price tag and near-binding commitment to LSU scared teams off.—ALLAN SIMPSON
  UPDATE (5/15): Verdugo thrived this spring in his first chance at Division I baseball and helped carry the resurgent LSU team with him, going 8-2, 3.61 with 75 K’s in 82 innings. He throws a variety of different fastballs between the low 80s and low 90’s, some with cut, some with sink and some straight and hard. He is very effective pitching off his fastball. His other offerings, a curveball and a changeup, are solid but not out-pitches. Verdugo is very young for a fourth-year junior, having just turned 21, so it won’t be a given for him to go out this year as it might be for many players in that situation.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Ryan O'Sullivan (R.10): SCOUTING REPORT: O’Sullivan and his brother Sean, now a highly-successful pitcher in the Los Angeles Angels organization, are the first brother combination ever to be named Aflac All-Americans (Sean was a 2004 selection). The younger O’Sullivan, much like his brother before him, has been a fixture in SoCal baseball circles since he was the MVP of the San Diego Stars’ national AAU championship team as a 9-year-old. O’Sullivan has always excelled as a two-way player at shortstop and on the mound, although (like his multi-talented brother) his upper-level baseball future is likely on the mound. Despite his part-time status on the hill, O’Sullivan throws 89-91 mph with hard, heavy sinking action on his fastball. His breaking ball is a 77-mph slurve that can be tightened into a slider. O’Sullivan is a polished pitcher and a ground-ball machine, and should continue to improve when he gets on the mound full-time. If he goes the college route, O’Sullivan could excel as one of the country’s top two-way players, just as he has done his entire baseball career thus far.—DAVID RAWNSLEY
• Justin Fitzgerald (R.11): SCOUTING REPORT: Fitzgerald went just 1-4, 4.96 with three saves as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2007, but made a huge statement on the opening weekend of the 2008 season when he came out firing a fastball that topped out at 94-95 mph. Almost overnight, he became a legitimate prospect. Fitzgerald continued to flash velocity in the 91-93 mph range with late life the rest of the season, and mixed in a solid 79-81 mph slider. He also tinkered with a curve and changeup. The upshot was a dominating season as the closer for UC Davis. He went 3-1, 2.90 with 13 saves. In 31 innings, he walked five and struck out 34. Fitzgerald, who took a medical red-shirt in 2006, looks the part in a uniform at a strapping 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds.—ALLAN SIMPSON
• Ari Ronick (R.12): SCOUTING REPORT: Ronick was drafted by the Reds a year ago, despite going 2-4, 3.05 with 22 strikeouts in 41 innings, missing several starts with a sore arm and subsequently undergoing surgery to address a stress fracture in his elbow. His first outing this season was his first in 10 months. He had no ill effects from his surgery at all in 2008 and showed scouts a short, quick, smooth arm action with a good feel for pitching. His fastball was consistently in the 87-91 mph range—solid for a tall, athletic lefthander. He has three other pitches—a slider with short, late tilt, a big-breaking three-quarters curve and a circle change—that are generally effective. His changeup is his best pitch. Ronick pitches to contact and went 4-7, 5.03 with 17 walks and 46 strikeouts in 63 innings this season—representative of the way he pitched as a four-year starter at Portland. Northwest scouts see him as a solid senior lefty with decent stuff.—ALLAN SIMPSON

Pre-Draft Top 50

In addition, they had a pre-draft Top 50 listing as well that they published on May 12th:

• Buster Posey (#1; pick #5 overall): It's been the Spring of Dreams for the Seminoles catcher, as he's been arguably college baseball's top hitter, furthered his defensive abilities behind the plate and put himself in position to be the No. 1 overall pick.
• Roger Kieschnick (#46; pick #82 overall): Kieschnick is a four-tool outfielder with his pro level power, speed, throwing and defense; the question will be how his hitting ability develops.
• Brandon Crawford (#48; pick #117 overall): Crawford's slow start and contact issues have taken him out of the first round, but his athleticism, defensive skills and potential will still get him drafted high.

Oddly enough, Conor Gillaspie was not ranked among the top 50.

Giant Thoughts

Lots of speculation over whether we can sign a number of our draftees. Below are my comments.

Gerald "Buster" Posey

Obviously, #1 is Buster Posey (the Giants loves these B-nickname players, like Boof :^). He is definitely signing, because he has nothing to prove nor improve by staying in college another year, he could only hurt his draft status with an injury or sub-par season. Thus the main question is when he will sign, soon or at the deadline like most did last year.

It is a distinct possibility that Posey could sit out until then, but I have to assume the Giants realize that time is the essence for Posey, the sooner he’s in the system, the sooner he’s moving up the system, particularly if they hope for him to have any chance of taking over in 2010, though they might do it anyway, as it wouldn’t be the first time that a player with a major league glove but developing bat gets thrown out there to start.

From his end, he’s better off signing this year, as it should cut a year off his development time to reach the majors, and make up some of the money that way. And the sooner he makes the majors and make all the teams who passed him up pay for not selecting him.

Thus far, there have been a number of signings already in the first round, so things seem to be moving faster. That's probably because last year was the first one where the August 15th deadline was put in place plus the recommended slot bonus was reduced 10%. This year, it's the second year of the system plus the slots have been raised by 20% over last year, which was a reversal of last year's 10% decrease plus a 10% increase. So I'm hopeful that Buster will sign sooner than later, he seemed pretty jazzed about getting selected by the Giants. In addition, I came across a rather heart-warming story about him and given that humble background, I doubt that he'll be going for every dollar he can get but rather probably has a figure he thinks is fair that he will want.

So that brings the question: what is fair? It would be what the top talent got from last year's draft. Weiters did get $6M when the slot was $2.25M for the #5 pick and Price got $5.6M last year as the #1 pick ($3.6M slot). In addition, Porcello got $3.58M, which is almost what the #2 pick got, Moustakas got $4M (and was slotted for $3.15M).

So I think that $4-5M is about what a top pick could expect to get in the draft without Boras as your agent, and if I were Posey’s agent I think that arguing for $5-6M would be where I would start and be happy with $3-4M and a major league contract when the deal is done. And Sabean said in a post-draft interview that the Giants would be open to a major league contract, which would fast track Posey.

About the rumored demand for $12M, I think the $12M was a red herring they threw out to get Tampa Bay not to draft Posey, and probably Pittsburgh too. Most also knew that Alvarez would be the Pirates pick if available and most knew that it was down to T.Beckam and Posey for TB, so the dominos would fall T.Beckham and Alvarez with the $12M request, then probably Hosmer to KC as per all the rumors, and the Orioles would be unlikely to draft Posey because of Weiters, leaving the Giants or at worse the Marlins to select Posey, both teams needing catchers desperately, but SF willing and able to pay for a top pick.

I doubt the Giants tipped off their hand in terms of selecting Posey, but I can see Posey’s agent letting the Giants know what they were looking for if the Giants selected him, in order to influence them to draft him with their pick.

Out of the top teams picking, if I were Posey, I would want the Giants or Marlins to select me. They both need a future catcher and fast, as both teams are nearly rebuilt and nearly ready to compete, meaning that Posey could rise quickly. Orioles has Wieters in the way and the Royals and Pirates have a history of incompetence in the way and no track record that things will necesarily get better, though the Royals are nicely stacked right now. The Rays are improving, have a great set of young players, but again, no track record of success.

As much as people like to ride on Sabean, he does have a history of success behind him, as do the Marlins. In addition, Sabean values defense and versatility, which Posey have in spades, and therefore we might pay more for Posey than another team. Also, Posey, not expected to be a huge HR hitter, would not be affected much by playing at AT&T, so he’s not scared away by our park’s image as a pitcher’s park (which has not held up in recent years but the media still hasn’t learned yet so others probably haven’t either) that kills HR power.

Conor Gillaspie

According to one account of the draft, Conor Gillaspie was clearly disgusted when he fell out of the first round. So the thinking goes that he won't sign because he will want to go higher in the draft. Let's say he does do that and get selected at the end of round 1 next year.

Last year’s end of first round got roughly $100-200K more than what the 37th pick of 2007 draft. So if he signs quickly and rise fast, he would make that money up quickly, particularly since the Giants only have Castillo penciled in for 2009-2010 right now, and Rohlinger is the only prospect ahead of him right now.

In addition, the best revenge is making the majors ASAP and starting and hitting well. :^)

I was more impressed with Gillaspie after reading this description, not that previous ones were lacking, but rather this one makes his accomplishments more significant for me. I like the fact that he has a tireless work ethic, those are the kind of players who continually improve themselves. I also didn't know about his ability to steal or take a walk. He was a good pick before, but I really like him after this one, he looks like a good #2 hitter. The only problem was his defensive problems at 3B but I haven't see anything that says that he'll have to change positions at some point in the future..

Roger Krieschnick

What's not to love about a player who has 4-5 tools? Unfortunately, the one tool missing is hitting, so he's probably going to strike out a lot but he has loads of power. I don't expect any problem signing, he should be slotted to get around $500,000, based on what his overall pick number got last year plus the increase in slot money, so unless he thinks he can improve a lot next season, it would be hard for him to turn that type of bonus down. Again, as noted for others, signing now means he start in the majors a year sooner probably, so any delay of that timetable will cost him more than his improvement in bonus unless he can get himself into the first round, either regular or supplemental.

Brandon Crawford

He could be the steal of the draft for us, even more than Posey, Gillaspie or Krieschnick. Though a fourth round draft pick, the commentary above has him having first round tools and 5 tool-ability as well. He also looks like he can stick at SS, and that is an area where our farm system could use more talent. Defense is his most developed tool so far; his hitting is probably the least. But, the comment above states that he was good enough to be thought the first SS drafted, so that is pretty good to get here back in the fourth round.

He's probably the most likely of the top picks to not sign and go back for next year's draft. He fell far from where he could have been, and given the question marks on him, making the majors is not a sure thing for him; whereas the others above him clearly will probably make the majors, the main question is will they stick. Since the majors is not a given for him, signing would not necessarily mean that he will make more money sooner by signing with the Giants.

However, I still think he signs. He's from the Bay Area, so he'll be nearby during his journey up the farm system, allowing family and friends to watch him play. His bonus is still substantial, $300,000 range, and if he has another subpar year, he's going to fall enough further back in the draft. Take the money and see if he can resusistate his career in the minors, if he's looking for money, the majors will bring him more than what the bonus he would get in the first round plus he would get to play in front of his family and friends at AT&T, instead of, say, Pittsburgh or KC.

Edwin Quirate

Signed already! Some wonder if we paid too much.

Last year, early 5th rounders got about $150K and the 147th pick last year was slotted with $162,000. According to the reports, the slots were raised this season about 7% for the 2nd to 5th rounds, which would put the 147th pick slot bonus to $173K approximately. Plus there is the reversal of the decrease of last year, so that makes the slot approximately $190K.

$193K is roughly equal to my estimated slot, so he was not paid too much.

Early Signings

And he is not the only one to sign already, there are a lot of players signed already. My guess would be that they realized that fighting over slot or slightly above slot is not worth the lost time of evaluation and acclimation and education that occurs when the player signs early and starts playing in short-season A-ball or rookie league.

In addition, I think that signings are quicker this season because the slot was increased to where it should have been relative to 2006, plus they now have one draft under their belt regarding the new August 15 deadline, there was a lot of stalling last season probably because of the new system. Plus, I’ll bet a lot of players realized that they lost all that time fighting over not a lot of money. For example, Fairley fought to the end and got $10K over slot. If that delays his getting to the majors by one week, there goes his $10K extra, plus more for every week after that.

Other Giants Picks

The other picks are all diamonds in the rough, with something good as a reason to draft him, and something bad that led to him falling that far back. However, Ryan O'Sullivan looks like he fell because of signability concerns, as he looks like he has a pretty clean history, he has accomplished a lot of things as he rose from Little League to high school.

He's from the San Diego area, so hopefully he's pals with Nick Noonan and decides to sign with us. I assume we will be going over slot if we do sign him, but you never know, as his brother is already in the Angel's farm system, so he could be aching to become a pro.

DePodesta Blog on the Recent Draft

Amazingly and wonderfully, Paul DePodesta, now with the 'Dres, has a blog called "It Might be Dangerous... You Go First" and he recently blogged on the draft. Here are some interesting bits, plus some comments from me:

• "...a more detailed analysis can greatly inform a team's strategy for a particular draft. As I've mentioned before, due to the fact that baseball's draft does not immediately impact the Major League level, teams don't necessarily have to draft for need. This allows for more flexibility in the process on an annual basis." This makes a lot of sense. Still, when you draft, you still need to field a team in the lower levels, so at some point you do draft by need. But the main point is that when the probability of the prospect drafted is still visible without a microscope, you should draft best player available. So if Posey was gone and Matusz was available, Sabean probably would have pissed off a lot of fans here by drafting Matusz. I'm sure there will be a lot of Giants fans following what Smoak does in his career: a couple of years ago, Baseball America did an early (end of calendar year) rank for the draft next year, and the #10 prospect was Evan Longoria, and I've been following him ever since, even though we had no chance to draft him, and, I would say, did pretty well for ourselves by selecting Lincecum.
• "This year our scouting staff determined that the 2008 draft class was particularly deep in high quality college hitters, thin in college pitching, and a bit disappointing in terms of depth at the high school level. In fact, there seemed to be an unusually high number of high school players who weren't terribly interested in signing (demanding top half of the first round money in order to forego their college experience)." That would explain the Giants drafting so many college hitters, then going for college pitching (where they hopefully have some sort of competitive advantage in identifying talent), and didn't select high schoolers until later, which was quite a contrast to last year's 5 of 6 high school draftees up front.
• "Approximately five days before the draft we started having conversations about the reality of the draft class and began formulating our strategy. What if we didn't take a pitcher the entire first day? Given the class, we decided, we were prepared to do just that. We weren't going to take a pitcher just to seemingly balance our draft. There were pitchers were liked, of course, and we would be prepared to take them. However, there was an unusual number of attractive hitters, so we wanted to take advantage of the opportunity and land as many of them as possible. We certainly didn't want to pass on some of these hitters, who in other years may be at the top of the class, in order to take a pitcher who was very similar to pitchers available in the following few rounds (or in any other year). As I've stated many times in this blog, we know we're not going to be right every time, but if we could secure a full group of top hitters, not just one or two, we felt that at least some of them will meet or exceed our expectations." That's a good thing for fans to remember, the quality and depth of each year's draft is not the same. Sometimes one year's 3rd round pick is better in quality than last year's 2nd round pick. My draft study showed a lot of variability with each draft, but I didn't make a point of it, as I don't have that stats ability to prove that, but it is nice to see an outsider confirm what I noticed in my study. And you can take what he said at the end, change it to pitchers instead of hitters, and that has been basically the Giants draft philosophy for many years now.
• "One of the biggest complaints about most drafts is that certain players were "overdrafted". I'll be honest - I don't really believe in that concept. First of all, our knowledge in terms of where players will be selected is imperfect to put it mildly. Remember, it only takes one team out of thirty to step up and take a player, and then he's gone. There are no do-overs. We may really like a guy, think we can get him in the 4th round or so, and then he's gone in the second. It happens all the time. Therefore, I believe that if you like the player and want him in your system, just take him. My litmus test is how I'm going to react when I hear another team call the player's name: a) a grimace with a head bob, b) an audible "Gah!" with a twist of the neck, or c) nauseous. If (c), then take the player if he's available." That is something I had wondered about, just like any other fan, for years, but I have trusted Sabean's judgement on that since I feel that he has shown good judgement in the trades he had made previously and the drafts he made when he ran the Yankee's draft. Free agency, sometimes you have to take what is on the market, because you need it, not because you necessarily think he's really that good, sometimes you just have to roll the dice when the philosophy is to win now with Bonds, much like any other team scratching and clawing to win it all, now. You have to cross your fingers. Back to the point, this is something I've learned from participating in a few fantasy drafts, if you really want a player, you have to select him, i.e. "over-draft him", if you want him on your team. Thus I tried to overdraft no more than a round or two before I thought others would want him (Lincecum :^) because as he wrote, all you need is one team thinking they need him, and he is gone.
• "The first round is always the most difficult, especially when you're picking in the bottom third. It's very difficult to predict the pool of available players, and the 5-tool, can't miss types are generally gone in the top 5 or 10 picks. This year was no different. " This is exactly what my point has been when I write here and at other Giants and baseball blogs about the draft, the best players are gone after 5 to 10 picks, depending on the year. After that, it becomes a much harder exercise of identifying players who might be useful, let alone who might be good players. As he noted above, sometimes you just have to draft a whole bunch of similar players in hopes that one of them will make it.

This is a great firsthand description of what is happening for a MLB team when preparing for and executing the draft. I must give my kudos to DePodesta for being so open and reaching out to the public in this way.

Giants Thoughts

As I wrote long ago, the baseball draft is more of a crapshoot than thought. It is relatively old now, but nobody since has been able to see the point my study tried to make. Most have focused on the fact that there is value and that there is more value early on, but still value later.

I never said that there wasn't value, but that the chance of collecting on that value is very low. In fact, I've kind of assumed that there must be some value, else these baseball execs must be the biggest chumps in the world, running a draft for over 40 years and not getting any value out of it.

What the authors of these other studies and the people who point out these studies to me lack is a clear understanding of how statistics work when you have situations of low probability. Which is something most people lack because they are simply not used to such phenomenon. But anyone who has taken an introductory class on business stats would understand.

It is all about the difference between expected value, which is what all other studies that have duplicated my study has found, and probability. Expected value has to do with what you can expect to receive if you were able to run the same event over and over again, and calculate the average value received.

But that's not the point when you are dealing with reality and you just have that one shot. That's why I used craps and the lottery as examples to illustrate my point. You have that one roll, you have that one ticket, you either win or you lose, do or die, what is the result?

In baseball, in the back of the first round, you have around a 10% chance of finding a good ballplayer (forget about the fact that it would be another 4-6 years before he pays off). So 9 times out of 10, when you skip that back of the first round pick, you just threw away a player who most likely will never ever be a good player, 90% chance of that happening, based on the draft results over a 13 year period.

While the result of past draft picks have no bearing on the future of any particular draft pick you want to examine, it is my assumption that the population feeding into the draft is producing players at approximately the same rate over time. Just like over time there is a certain percentage of, say, left-handed people, and other population characteristics. It may go up, it may go down, other sports probably does siphon off talent, but today, where there are few athletes capable of playing multiple sports at the same level of excellence, they generally are smart enough to figure out which sport will make them the most money relative to the damage their body takes and the joy they get out of playing the sport, and so the level has been relatively about the same for many years now, now that football and basketball have risen to baseball's level - and perhaps surpassed them - in the national stage.

One day I will figure out how to explain it right, but not tonight. Hopefully one day.

Descriptions of Giants Top 3 Draft Picks

There is a new analyst of pitching mechanics on The Hardball Times, in the wake of Carlos Gomez getting a job with a major league team, and he publishes on the website Baseball-Intellect.com. However, he did not cover Posey yet, so I was disappointed.

However, he has linked to another website, Brewersfan.net, where the author of that site published information on the Giants top 3 draft picks. I don't know how good the site is or what their reputation is (though I just found two quotes from BP and BA saying they are a "indispensable" and "unbelievable" website), but what I read there isn't much different from other descriptions, but I like reading a broad range of sources so here is their descriptions of each pick:

• Buster Posey: He was ranked 4th among eligibles, after Alvarez, Matusz, and T.Beckham, and was drafted 5th by the Giants, and was the top ranked catcher. His comments: "A very good and versatile overall athlete, Posey arrived at Florida State's campus as a two-way talent expected to play shortstop everyday while also pitching out of the bullpen due to his natural arm strength and refined approach to pitching which included one of the better changeups in the prep class of 2005. His lateral quickness and arm strength prompted a move to behind the plate for Posey, a transition he started during FSU's fall practices during his sophomore year. He took to the switch quickly and is already considered a good defender with the ability to neutralize the opponents running game with his strong arm. He still needs to improve in some of the finer aspects, but most don't think that will be a problem given how far he has come in such a short amount of time. His bat is made for contact, with quick hands that allows him to lace line drives from gap to gap. There isn't much over the fence power at this point in time, and he probably will never hit for more than 10-15 homers a year, but he could easily hit for 40-plus doubles while managing the strike zone. His overall athleticism gives him good speed for a catcher, as he profiles in a similar fashion to other catcher conversions such as Michael Barrett, Brandon Inge and even Craig Biggio."
• Conor Gillaspie: He was ranked the 28th best prospect and was selected by the Giants with the 37th pick, and was the 4th best 3B in the draft, just after Anthony Hewitt (23rd) and Ethan Martin (24th) and of course behind Pedro Alvarez who was #1. His comments: "Gillaspie has always been a solid, hard-nosed player with the ability to hit for contact and gap power. His game exploded last summer on the Cape, leading the league in batting and slugging on his way to being named the circuit’s most valuable player. With a level, left-handed swing and a patient eye at the plate, Gillaspie is able to hit for a high average while walking nearly twice as much as he strikes out. Most of his power is to the gaps, but he get hit one out on occasion with double-digit home run potential. Overall he is a solid athlete, but doesn’t stand out in any one area. His defense has been somewhat shaky, but most seem to believe that he will become solid average and he could rise quickly through the minors."
• Roger Kieschnick: He was ranked the 66th best prospect and was selected by the Giants with the 82nd pick, and was the 2nd best RF in the draft, behind Dennis Raben (43rd), plus was the 9th best OF in the draft. His comments: "Kieschnick profiles very similar to former big-leaguer Jeromy Burnitz, with a power/power profile suited for right field. Like Burnitz, Kieschnick's swing is long and he strikes out in bunches. But when he connects the ball travels a very long distance, as he punishes mistakes and needs to be pitched carefully too. Overall he needs to control the strike zone better by walking more in addition to striking out less. He is an impact run producer though, and was among the league leaders nationally in doubles with 25. Defensively he has enough speed and range to handle centerfield in a pinch, but as noted above he fits right field perfectly with a strong and accurate throwing arm. Teams always draft power early, as Kieshnick's adjustments at the plate will determine which of the top three rounds he's drafted in."

Giants Second Day Draft

I don't have time to gather up the information but there is a lot of great info on McCovey Chronicles post on this thread. And on the rest of the first day picks, MCC covered it here.

Sorry, had to catch up on the work I shirked!

Post-Post Post on the Post on Pick of Posey: Only Positives

Perhaps my pugnacious nature percolated upward and onward and perambulated upon my post on Posey.

I was thinking more about the drafting of Posey. As I noted, I was disappointed because he was not a difference maker whereas Smoak appears to have been one (30-40 home run power will do that). Posey will probably be a very good catcher for us, but he won't be a catcher who will lead the way for us offensively by driving in a lot of runs. Sabean said so himself. However, now I'm wondering if I succumbed to a knee-jerk reaction by posting immediately.

Not Thinking Long-Term Enough

Catcher is a key position and getting gold-glove defense there is critical to the Giants long-term plans with our great crop of pitchers that should only get better, barring any spate of the injury bug (which is ever present like the Sword of Damacles). We want good defense up the middle but it is a big plus to have a good offensive guy there too, something Jackson Williams is struggling to do just in A-ball.

And he's a smart guy, the sfgiants.com account of his being drafted noted that he's got a cululative GPA over 3.8 and made the Academic All-America Team assembled by CoSIDA and ESPN The Magazine, which means that he is plenty smart and should be able to learn the nuances of calling games eventually assuming he has good teachers. Bochy being an former catcher in the majors can help him there, Kirt Manwaring, an excellent defensive catcher for the Giants in the past is our minor league catching instructor. He should be a quick learner and move swiftly up the learning curve.

(Side-Track: now this is what bothers me sometimes, the Giants (or any other MLB team) will be paying a multi-million dollar bonus to Posey to join our team, so wouldn't it be Giant Smarts to spend, say, $100K per year (or even $250K per year) to hire an ex-catcher, who is very good at what Posey lacks (in this case, calling a game) and have him travel as Posey's roommate so that they can talk catching all the time? Or if that is too much contact, at least he will travel with the team and be there for Posey (mainly, plus help out with the other catchers). Or if the hitter needs to learn fielding, have someone who is there to practice with him. Or if he can't hit lefties well, hire a left-hander to travel and pitch, much like how Bonds had that LHP travelling with the team and pitching to him (and now other people). Very small investment compared to the bonuses being paid and the total cost of the farm system, but should pay huge dividends by accelerating the learning curve. OK, back to the regular post...)

So Posey is definitely a fine addition to the team at a critical premium position and will bring nice power from that spot, though not difference making power. But I forgot to take the longer-term view on this.

2009 is Probably A Good Pick: Top 5 Again

Obviously, we aren't going to win a lot of games this season. We are already in line for the 7th pick in next year's draft and just a game away from getting the 5th pick again. If we end up selling off the vets, that is probably going to happen again, getting a top 5 pick, because if we were around .500 with the vets, we certainly are going to be much worse without them, barring any sudden burst of development and "figuring it out" on the part of their replacements from the farm system. So we are in line to pick up another good bat next season (and who knows possibly again in 2010), Smoak or no Smoak.

And next year already have some premium bats available (info from Saber-Scouting), like Mychal Givens, top 1-2 high school junior who is a SS, who has "true shortstop actions with above-average defensive tools" who won't outgrow the position and is a vocal leader and good student, Bobby Borchering, who is a power hitting switch hitting 3B, or Austin Maddox, 8th best prep in the country, best prep catcher since Joe Mauer who is excellent behind the plate and is likened to a Mike Piazza with a plus-plus arm. So what you ask? Well, Posey was previously a shortstop and if we need to, we can move him to SS and draft Austin Maddox, who could be a middle lineup hitter. And Borchering would fill that middle lineup need and the 3B need. So we should be in line for a difference maker bat next year assuming we continue to struggle to win games like we have been.

Me? Why Worry?

So why sweat over Posey not being a big difference maker? We could be picking up that hitter in next year's draft. Plus, Villalona is slotted to be a difference maker when he makes the majors, assuming he continues to do well, here are his month by month numbers in A-ball:

APR: .213/.273/.325/.598, 80 AB/HR, 41% XBH
MAY: .250/.299/.460/.759, 20 AB/HR, 44% XBH
JUN: .273/.333/.636/.970, 11 AB/HR, only 11 AB so far

If he continues to rake through June, he could be promoted to San Jose in July possibly.

Basically, we need players across the diamond and a Smoak would be redundant assuming they are still confident that Villalona will make it to the majors (if he is beating up on pitchers who are on average about 4-5 years older than he is, i.e. post-college age, and he's only going to be a high school senior this season, he has to be good; FYI, when Justin Upton was a year older than Angel, i.e. Angel's 2009 season, he was in A-ball and hit .263/.343/.413/.756 with 12 homers in 438 AB, not much better than what Angel is doing now and that's full season vs. about a third for Angel; and prospects about his age who succeeded in Sally League include Chris Marrero, Fernando Martinez, Andrew McCuthen, Jose Tabata and they were all older than he is) whereas getting a major league caliber catcher like Posey who will be plus at his position. We could end up with a McCovey-Cepeda situation again and have to trade off Smoak to get a position we need now.

So why not draft Posey now because we do need a catcher, particularly since Jackson Williams, who was our previous catcher du jour, is hitting horribly in A-ball, horribly!, so who knows if he's ever going to make the majors, and while Sandoval is doing nicely, he still has a lot to learn about catching. We need our future catcher and Posey fills that need very nicely and in a premium way, whereas Smoak, even if he develops, is only backup insurance if Villalona becomes a dud at some point, a risk that exists for all prospects, no matter how good they were in the minors.

Farm Depth

So where does the Giants stand today by position:

1. They are set on pitching and have more coming out of the ears in coming years in Alderson, Sosa, Bumgarner, Buccardo, and perhaps Cowart, Snyder, Pucetas, Tanner, among others. They also have numerious relievers, like Ramos, Matos, Anderson, maybe Griffin, Joaquin, even starters who can't win a spot in the rotation.
2. Now they have Posey at catcher plus Pablo Sandoval still developing (remember Posey could return to SS at some point and be plus offensively there too). Williams is lost offensively in A-ball so it doesn't look good right now except for as a great defensive backup.
3. They have Villalona there, plus Bowker there currently with perhaps Ortmeier or Horwitz as platoon buddy until Angel is ready. Ishikawa is apparently suppose to get the call to AAA soon too (again, home: .233/.324/.378/.702; away: .333/.434/.458/.891, both in roughly 100+ PA, so if he can continue to hit well in June/July, they could possibly bring him up if Bowker continues to struggle offensively. They will lose him anyway next year because he will be out of options, so it's now or never. Plus Brett Pill, Anthony D'Alessio and Thomas Neal.
4. We have Nick Noonan there eventually, plus Eugenio Velez and Kevin Frandsen for near-term. Maybe Matthew Downs too. And Burriss could play here if necessary too.
5. We don't have anyone of note here, but Ryan Rohlinger was considered for the position before we picked up Castillo, and we control Castillo for at least another year I think, under arbitration rules. Maybe Matthew Downs here too and, I forgot, Pablo Sandoval too, he played 3B a couple of years ago.
6. We have Emmanuel Burriss for now plus Sharlon Schoop who is suppose to be ready defensively years ago, but Posey could move here if necessary. Plus there is Charlie Culberson coming up.
7. We have Fred Lewis looking really good right now plus if he continues to hit like this for power, he could be a middle of lineup guy, but maybe EME at some point and Bowker too if 1B is taken by whoever.
8. Rowand is our very nice solution for a while, with Wendell Fairley down the line.
9. Nate Schierholtz is the guy.

So we are really looking pretty good in our system, only weak at 3B and SS really, with CF as a potential area of weakness if Fairley don't produce fast enough (when is he ever getting into a pro game?). If we drafted Smoak instead of Posey, we would have to add C to that list, getting catcher covered in our farm system is a tipping point where we go from 5 covered positions vs. 3 unset position to 6 covered positions vs. 2 unset positions. That goes from one away from being equal (4:4) to three times (6:2) coverage.

And while we are looking for middle-of-the-lineup hitters, we have a number of good candidates internally already in Schierholtz, Lewis, and Villalona, and that's in addition to Aaron Rowand. We might not be covered now, but we should be within the next one-two seasons (2009-2010). And they don't have to be great offensive players at their positions, with our pitching, all we really need is a good offense, not a great one, to win a lot of games.

So really, I say that the Giants are looking for difference makers and yet staring in my face is Posey, who is one in his own way for our situation, by being a plus catcher, providing great defense plus good offense for the position. Rowand is plus now, and if Lewis continues to develop and mature, he should be plus in a year or two once he hit his prime physical years. Nate Schierholtz looks like he will be a plus in RF and Villalona should be a plus plus at 1B by 2010-11. That would be five plus positions offensively, with good defense at C and 1B, plus CF. Of course, assuming they continue to develop.

Posey Better Pick Than Smoak For Our Farm System As Is

Thus, the system looks a whole lot better with Posey drafted than Smoak drafted, and the prospect of selecting a premium SS or 3B in next year's draft, like Givens, Borchering, or Maddox (in his case, Posey plays C until Maddox is ready to take over, then move Posey to SS). In addition, there is a reason he was considered strongly for the #1 pick overall, he has a lot of talent at a premium position, whereas Smoak was so lightly considered (relatively to Posey) that he fell out of the top 10 picks.

So I'm feeling much better about the Posey pick now, and really like the next two picks as well, who know, maybe Gillaspie is the 3B to fill the empty spot above right now, and Kieschnick would give us some depth in the outfield as well. At least I didn't state that I would throw myself down the stairs if Posey was drafted. :^)

Posey was the correct pick, I had it wrong with my first post after Posey was picked.

Giants Select Roger Kieschnick with their 3rd Round Pick of 2008 Draft

The 82nd pick overall, Roger Kieschnick is a lefty hitting RF who throws right. Here is the MiLB description in the draft tracker:

Kieschnick is a potential five-tool corner outfielder who could hit for power and steal a few bases. He plays a fearless outfield, getting to plenty of balls and showing off a good arm at times. The one knock is an issue with his mechanics at the plate that concerns some about his hitting ability at the next level. Still, an aggressive college outfielder -- in a weak class of outfielders -- who has those tools should get plenty of interest.

Apparently not, I guess a lot of teams were scared off that his mechanics. There could also be a problem with money, we don't know his demands.

Here is the full Jonathan Mayo profile (http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/reports_popup.jsp?popup=yes&content=kieschnick):

• Hitting: Kieschnick has some rigidness to his swing that makes him a little pull conscious, but he does keep his bat through the zone. He has excellent raw power, mostly to the pull side because of his swing path. He has above-average speed. An aggressive base runner, he could be the type to steal 10 to 15 bases per year at the next level.
• Defense: He showed an average arm in this series, but it's been plus in the past. He has the potential to be an above-average right fielder. He gets good breaks and angles on balls and is very aggressive in the outfield.
• Description: Kieschnick is a big, athletic left-handed hitter who reminds some of Mark Teahen.
• Strengths: Raw power, good speed, aggressiveness in all facets of the game.
• Weaknesses: The rigidness to his swing and lack of firmer base at the plate leads to some wondering whether he'll hit enough at the next level.

Other notes:

• Baseball America had him ranked as the 44th best prospect this season, so the Giants by that ranking really had a great selection. He was ranked just behind Issac Galloway and Allan Dykstra, two players mock drafts had the Giants selecting.
• SaberScouting had him ranked 52nd. They wrote on him earlier (April 28th) that he was a player seemingly with helium right then.
• John Sickel did not list him, but in the mock draft he ran with select members, he was selected with the 57th pick overall in the 2nd round.
• Keith Law had him 51st: Kieschnick has first-round ability, but his approach and his results will push him down to the second round. He can run, has a good arm, and plays right field very well. He has some raw power and the strength to hit for more if he learns to keep his weight back better and get his lower half involved when he makes solid contact. Contact, however, is a problem, as his swing isn’t consistent and he’s on his front foot early. He’s an upside play for a team willing to take a shot at handing him to player development to clean him up, but there’s a good chance he turns into a fourth outfielder because he doesn’t hit enough to profile in a corner despite all his other skills.
• BP Goldstein noted: "How about Roger Kieschnick - did the Giants go 3 for 3?" Also: (when asked who has the best draft) "I haven't had time to digest it all, but as weird as this sounds, I really like the Giants draft."

Obviously, there is not as much info on the later picks as the earliest ones. I was able to find some information from other sources on McCovey Chronicles's posts on the draft. I also think he is related to that utility player/reliever Brook Kieschnick somehow, should be noted later somewhere.

Looks like a great pick for the Giants in that they got talent who was considered a round better than they selected, but remember, the odds of finding a good player from even the third round is not that great, somewhere around 1-2% success rate in finding a good player. So enjoy the success while you can, he faces a long hard road ahead. Still, he could be that unopened Willy Wonka Chocolate candy bar which might hold the golden ticket, so there's always that, particularly if he is a five-tool candidate, but you have to wonder what it is about him that caused him to fall down a round in the draft, according to the expert's thoughts on where he would land.

Giants Select 3B Conor Gillaspie With Supplemental 1st Round Pick in 2008 Draft

With the 37th overall pick, received for the Phillies signing Pedro Feliz, the Giants selected lefty-hitting 3B Conor Gillaspie (obviously a righty thrower then) of Wichita State University. He will be 21 years old on July 18th. Here is the comment in the MLB.com Draft Tracker:

After a strong cape season, Gillaspie has followed up with an excellent junior campaign. He's a terrific hitter and has been over .400 for most of the year. His lack of power makes it hard to profile him anywhere other than as a Bill Mueller-type third baseman. There are worse things to be, of course, and a team that values what Gillaspie can do will surely take him.

He hit .425 in 57 games with 10 homers, 79 RBIs and a .706 SLG this season.

From MiLB's profiling of him:

• He's been one of the most consistent hitters in the college class and currently has a .404 average and .491 OBP. In a recent game against Southern Illinois, the third baseman had a pair of hits and even stole two bases in a 10-0 win.
• Hitting: hitting ability is Gillaspie's best tool. He's a very good hitter who has a good idea of what he's doing at the plate. He doesn't have much and doesn't profile to have much. He's a base-hit machine. He's got below-average speed. Despite not being fleet footed, he's an excellent base runner and uses his smarts to steal some bases.
• Defense: He's got an average arm at third but he'll make for an adequate third baseman, with a limited range but it's OK.
• Strengths: Pure hitting ability.
• Weaknesses: Lack of power keeps him form having a true profile position.

Obviously, we need 3B.

Saber-Scouting has a very high opinion of him, ranking him 25rd among all the prospects (and we selected him 37th). Here is what they wrote on him:

When speaking of Gillaspie, there seems to be a split among teams on just how good he is. However, those who like him like him a lot. Gillaspie, in our eyes, profiles as an outstanding pure hitter, but one who may never hit for more than average power, though. He has an advanced approach and uses the whole field and has a gritty and aggressive approach to the game. He also projects to stay at the hot corner as he’s a solid athlete with an average arm.

Pros: Proven with wood bat, Athleticism, Makeup

Cons: Lacks upside at the plate and in the field

Comparison: Paul O’Neill offensively

The Giants do love athleticism and makeup!

Other notes:

• Baseball America ranked Gillaspie as the 23rd best player in the draft in their Top 200 list.
• John Sickels had the Twins selecting him with the 27th pick, noting that they opt for "gritty midwest option to help third base situation." Coincidentally, the Twins had Rule 5'ed us by selecting 3B Brian Buscher away, who suddenly learned to hit for the power we had been waiting for all those years before, having good seasons in AA and AAA. And, of course, there were the Bill Mueller references before the Giants even selected Gillaspie.
• BP notes that he is like Zimmerman with less defense; that's pretty good, Zimmerman's a good player. They also noted that "a lot of people saw this as a first-round bat, but at the same time, there might be money problems.
• Keith Law had the Mets selecting him with the 22nd pick overall, but only noted that the Mets are known to be looking for bats.
• Baseball Analysts appear to be posting Baseball America descriptions (their Posey matches word for word but there is no attribution) and here is what is said about Gillaspie: Gillaspie is a solid hitter but he does not have the power potential that a lot of clubs look for in a third baseman. He has been likened to former Giant and Red Sox third baseman Bill Mueller. Gillaspie also has below-average speed on the base paths, although he is an above-average runner. His arm strength is OK at the hot corner and is range is fringe average. Gillaspie’s biggest strength is his “pure hitting ability” and left-handed swing. He was over .400 for much of the year and had a MVP-worthy Cape Cod League in 2007. The third baseman is an intense competitor and has excellent work ethic.

Giants Select Buster Posey as Their #1 Pick in 2008 Draft

ESPN Keith Law in the live broadcast says that Buster Posey is one of the top hitters in the draft period, not just among the catchers.

Well, I won't say that I know better than the Giants and Posey is good enough to be in play for the #1 pick, much like Lincecum was, but I'm disappointed right now.

One guess I have is that they didn't want to face a Villalona vs. Smoak decision. Another is that catching is a weak area in our farm system, Pablo Sandoval is probably our top prospect there, with Jackson Williams behind him, and I've noted the poor odds of supplemental round players becoming a good ballplayer. As well as Williams hit in the college ranks, he was questionable as a major leaguer hitter when he was drafted and perhaps the Giants have decided that as well after having him in the system for a while now.

And, again, there is the fact that Posey was good enough that the Rays were considering him for the 1st pick overall, and most mock drafters and talent evaluators had Posey among the top 3 overall.

Scout.com: "The move behind the plate went smoothly. And we know what a hot commodity a catcher who can swing the bat is. Posey may not be a slugger, but he can swing the bat and stick behind the plate." They rate him as #3.

Baseball Prospectus: Goldstein had the Rays selecting him #1 overall. "Posey is the safer pick, a player who could make it to The Show quickly while providing nearly Gold-Glove-level defense and contributing at the plate by hitting .280-plus with 15-20 home runs and 70 walks. That's an All-Star at the position, and more importantly, he'd be ready to help over the next few years...". "This is a fantastic pick at five for the Giants. Really great find at five, and I’ll bet anything right now that he doesn’t get $12 million from SF."

John Sickel: "Would be easier to fit into the lineup long-term than Smoak." "Close-to-ready bat." Had the Giants picking him 5th.

Baseball America: Had Florida picking him 6th, "Posey's emerging bat and defensive superiority trump his asking price."

Saber-Scouting: Had Posey ranked 3rd overall in talent and noted in their mock draft (#3), "with a guy as special, high probability, and scorching hot at the most premium of positiosn, like Posey, you can’t let him past..."

Draft Day is Here!

Best time of year! Well, at least for this season...

The Giants hopes for the future rests squarely on who we pick 5th overall today. As I noted previously, it looks like Posey might be the pick the Giants go for, but a few sites have been sharing the rumor that Posey is demanding a huge ($12M) bonus, possibly bogus to fall down to the team(s) he prefers, but still, if you are not one of the teams he's interested in, do you take that risk and do you meet his demands?

Here is a nice report of it at Saber-Scouting; they also mocked draft into the supplemental and projected the Giants taking David Cooper, 1B from U.C. Berkeley.

Andrew Baggarley, at his blog, ExtraBaggs, reported that the Giants in some last-minute scouting, brought in some local college players for a scouting combine at AT&T the other day, but Cooper was not noted then. The players named: C Charlie Cutler (Cal), INF Josh Satin, maybe LHP Craig Bennignson (Cal), a "few Fresno States, a USC" and a huge first baseman from Southern A&M named Edwin Anderson, who looks like right-handed Ryan Howard, according to Baggarly. In addition, he reported that Keith Law of ESPN.com says that the Giants are leaning toward Georgia SS Gordon Beckham.

However, Law's latest (this morning) mock draft have the Giants selecting Buster Posey.

The Hardball Times has a nice compilation of a wide variety of commentary and analysis on the top picks who the Giants might pick here. The author has his own blog where he has analyzed a number of players here.

Giants Thoughts

It seems like the Giants most probably will be selecting from this group of prospects: Posey, Skipworth, G.Beckham, Smoak, and Alonso. I've changed my mind. As nice as Posey is as a prospect, the outlandish money demand turns me off a bit, as far as to his makeup and motivations (though reportedly, according to Saber-Scouting's report above, Madison Bumgarner tried to do the same thing to get more from a bigger pocket team but that the Giants didn't fall for or yield to that, and reportedly Smoak has some perceived high bonus demands). Plus, most accounts says that his high-end is that he hits around 15 homers per year and now one of the links provided by the Hardball Times' author notes that he's an ideal #2 hitter.

G.Beckham is another name showing up a lot in draft projections. THT's author notes for him that if you want an offensive minded SS who should be ready for the majors quickly, then Gordon is who you want, but if you are looking for upside and a potential star, you have to keep searching.

We all know who the Giants need: middle of the lineup hitter. Skipworth is a catcher, and I haven't seen any comparison to Johnny Bench and Alonso, for most comparisons I've seen, is considered below Smoak and good for 20-30 homers per year, which is great for us, but Smoak has the potential for 30-40 homers per year. Add to that most describe Smoak as excellent defensively at 1B and Smoak looks like the best guy for the Giants to select out of the probables. The THT author rates his potential to be pretty good, between an average regular to above average regular/borderline All-Star.

However, as noted previously, the Giants aren't the only one looking for such a player. Both the Royals (most say Hosmer pick) and Orioles (most say Matusz pick) are reportedly looking at Smoak as well. So he might not be available then.

In a worse case scenario, T.Beckham (probable Ray's pick), Alvarez (probable Pirate's pick), Smoak (possible Royal's or Oriole's pick), and Posey (possible Oriole's), which would leave us Eric Hosmer, Yonder Alonso, and Brett Wallace (local kid who can play 1B and 3B) as the corner middle of lineup types available. Wallace sounds nice plus is local, but he would be a huge overdraft at #5, most I've seen has him listed around the 10-20th pick range; however, the Chron noted him as a possibility so I included him here today (but he's an A's fan so there's that too) and I've noted Alonso's shortcoming relative to Smoak (in fact, some mocks had Wallace above Alonso).

Which leaves Eric Hosmer, Boras client. But PG Crosschecker had an article on him titled "Eric Hosmer - A Special Hitter" which makes the case that Hosmer compares favorably with any of the top high school hitters from the past 20 years, which includ A-Rod, Josh Hamilton, Delmon Young, a pretty good group to be compared with. It also notes that he is good defensively as well.

So here is my thinking just before the draft:

• Doubtful that they will be there, but if Alvarez or T.Beckham are available, the Giants will have to select them. The THT author thinks T.Beckham can be an All-Star and at worse an average regular, with a mid-level chance of being average at SS.
• Wild-card possibilities are Smoak and Hosmer, both could go ahead of us or reportedly slide way past us. Hosmer, however, is tied strongly to the Royals in most rumors I've read, so I think he'll be gone (but you never know when a team tries to cross up the public), whereas most have Smoak being selected by the Giants or afterward. They are probably the best the Giants can expect to do in this draft and Smoak is the pick I would see the Giants make.
• But if Hosmer if available too, I think the Giants would have to go with Hosmer, as he is a difference maker though further away than Smoak theoretically is, as some have said. Except that these people forget that some high school talents can make the majors by age 20, so that is not necessarily true. If some experts think that Hosmer is comparable to the best high school players in the last 20 years, you have to take a chance on him. But that's also why it looks like the Royals might go that route too, as they are looking for a 1B of the future. One factor that helps Hosmer fall to us is that the Royals probably think with their talent level, that they should be competitive soon, and thus may go for the college bat since he's probably closer to the majors than a high schooler.

Posey is the next tier to me. I really wanted Weiters last year and to pay about double his bonus for a player who, while good, is not as good as Weiters is, just doesn't seem right. Still that's not a major factor but just a irksome point. If the guys I listed above are gone, that means that we pick among a group of Posey, G.Beckham, Alonso, Wallace, and Skipworth.

While Posey looks good, is he worth paying $7-9M (again just rumors, he might "only" want half that) more than G.Beckham, Skipworth, Alonso, or Wallace? I don't think so, not for a catcher who is not a difference maker but "just" a great addition to any team. The price tag just cinched it for me, but I should have realized yesterday that he's no difference maker and that's something the Giant's John Barr stated as a thing that they are looking for. And that fits in with their selection of Tim Lincecum previously, then Madison Bumgarner last year, they look like difference makers.

This grouping is a tough pick for me, but I would lean toward Brett Wallace based on the reports that Jonathan May put out on MiLB.com here. He thinks Wallace is one of the best hitters in college and could hit .300 with 25 homers and high OBP, and he thinks Wallace would be fine at 1B, though as I mentioned, he played 3B as well in college so perhaps he could do that in the majors too. I'm not sure why all the mocks have him dropping so low in the draft (though one prospect rating, not draft projection, had him as 10th overall). Yonder Alonso would probably be just as fine a pick, and most rankings have him above Wallace, but his fielding appears to be below Wallace, and thus why I lean towards Wallace.

Posey and Beckham would be nice additions to any team but won't be a difference maker, in my mind, for the Giants, whereas Wallace and Alonso would be, particularly if Wallace could stay at 3B, but that is no sure thing and seems not probable. Then again, the A's had Mark McGwire at 3B to start his career, so you never know.

Final Note: just got news that the Rays have officially announced Tim Beckham as their pick, so that most probably means the Pirates select Alvarez, I think their new regime will lose whatever honeymoon period and benefit of the doubt that their fans are giving them if they select otherwise. That leaves KC as the wild-card now: Hosmer, Posey, or someone else?

Twas the Night Before the 2008 Amateur Draft

I saw some interesting news about the Giants strategy and thinking about their #5 draft pick. Seems like they can be happy in a number of different ways. Baseball America reported here the following:

The Giants and first-year scouting director John Barr could have a pleasant surprise at five. They’re said to have Hosmer at the top of their board but he may not get that far. However, Beckham or Posey might, which would give the Giants the chance to draft a premium middle-of-the-diamond player.

This is the first I've heard anywhere that the Giants have a player on the top of their board. Of course, the Giants typically play such information close to their vest, so for this to leak out, I wonder if it is a smoke screen to get the Royals to select Hosmer for sure, as rumored and reported in a variety of places.

Basically, there are three position players considered to be the cream of this years crop: Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham, and Buster Posey. For one of them to fall to the Giants, at least two of the four teams ahead of them will need to draft someone other than one of these three. Most mock drafts have Kansas City Royals selecting Hosmer 3rd and the Baltimore Orioles selecting LHP Brian Matusz (though one just changed it to the other premier pitcher in the draft, Aaron Crow). The roll of the dice is in who the Rays select.

They are considered to have narrowed it down to T.Beckham and Posey, with Beckham the name most prognosticators have selected as the Rays pick. That would leave Alvarez, who was the concensus top pick for a while now, in the hands of the Pirates, who want to make a big splash this year in a break from the previous regime.

Draft a Posey

And that would leave Posey in the hands of the Giants. He would be a good fit with the Giants. He plays good enough defense that most think that he will be able to stay at the catching position in the majors. But he was good enough to play SS his first season in college, so he could always move up the middle of the diamond positionally if necessary. And his offense is good enough to be plus at any of the middle of the diamond positions. He also relieved a little successfully too.

Here is the MiLB's draft profile for Posey. Pluses include "advanced hitting skills," and "good knowledge of the strike zone". He has the potential for 10-15 homers per season. "He's a highly sought-after package, a catcher who'll be able to stay behind the plate and has a chance to hit."

Weaknesses is the big one, his inexperience behind the plate (he was a shortstop his first season of college before converting to catcher full-time). He lacks the nuances of the position but the cure is easy: he just needs to catch more. Shifting behind the plate is one area of weakness.

Here is the summary:

College catchers who can stay at the position and can hit are always a hot commodity and Posey will be no exception. He's got a great approach with the bat and has a little power. As a converted shortstop, he's still a little raw behind the plate, but all the tools are there for him to be just fine and help ensure he gets drafted fairly early.

Not as good as Wieters, who was selected 5th last season, in my opinion, but he is probably the best catcher in this year's crop and among the top hitters. Perhaps they could partner him up with Jackson Williams and have Williams help mentor him. And, of course, the catcher doctor, Steve Decker is the manager in San Jose, so Posey could end up there next season and learn.

I would be very happy to get him, even the 5th pick is fraught with question marks typically. So selecting an athletic, versatile (he played all 9 positions in a game recently) hitter would help reduce the risk that he might not pan out at C. And if he can stick at C, all the better, Molina could be gone by the end of 2009 and who knows if Pablo Sandoval can continue to impress as he moves up. Better to have an alternative plan.

Giants Eye Isaac?

For the Giants supplemental first round pick, the name I see has been Isaac Galloway, a toolsy CF that fits the mode of the athletic prospects the Giants tend to like.

Here is the draft profile for Galloway.

Wow, he sounds great:

• Galloway is a solid contact hitter who can drive the ball to all fields.
• He has plus power to the pull side and has the potential to hit 20-plus homers annually.
• He's a plus runner now, though he may settle in as a tick above average as he matures.
  He's not a pure basestealer, but he could be a 15-20 steals per year kind of runner.
• He has a plus arm that has more than enough carry to work from right field.
• He can go get the ball well, though left field may eventually be his best spot.
• Strengths: His all-around tools. Galloway has all five of them and is already showing some aptitude toward using them in games.
• Weaknesses: There isn't much looseness to his body, which could mean he'll lose a step speed-wise as he matures.

Summary:

It's a good year for toolsy high school outfielders in California and Galloway is right near the top of that list. He's got more now skills -- and less projection -- than fellow outfielders Aaron Hicks and Anthony Gose. But he can do everything well and should develop into a guy who will hit for average and power as well as steal some bases. The ceiling may not be as through the roof as with the others, but he's the type who could hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases annually in the future."

Sounds kind of like another Fred Lewis, a toolsy outfielder, only right-handed. He could be ready in 3-4 years to reach the majors given the assessment that he's a bit more developed than others but is lacking in projection. Still, a 20-20 hitter is nothing to sneeze at and would be a great contributor or trade bait.

Plus someone posted in the comments section that the Giants are eyeing Tyler Landendorf SS.
Here is a report on him. Apparently the Giants drafted him last season so they could do it again. He might not stick at SS though, might get too big, in which case probably means the outfield for him. He sounds like a pretty good pick as well, so I could live with him as well.

Happy Picking, Giants!