One of the truisms I've come across in following the Giants is that the Eastern League is a pitcher's league. The reasoning I've seen before is that with the California League a hitter's league and the PCL another hitter's league, seeing how poorly our hitters do in the EL makes that league a pitcher's league. Given some discussions I have had in the ether, I thought I would examine that truism.
Showing posts with label minors. Show all posts
Showing posts with label minors. Show all posts
Thursday, August 07, 2014
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Study: Prospect's Age in Context of League - SALLY
One of the things I believe in is age in context to the league the prospect is playing in. Like many of my truisms, I learned it from Shandler's Baseball Forecaster Annual, though he says nothing explicitly to that point in his toolbox, but it is a clear underpinning because his team when calculating MLE for AA and AAA players (they feel that any level lower, the prospects still have to much to learn to properly adjust to the majors), they modify the MLE according to age, meaning if they are old versus the league, their MLE is lowered, and if younger, raised. And I have felt that I've absorbed this from all the Leader Lists for all the minors leagues that the Giants have teams in that I've looked at over the years. It just makes total sense to me.
But like some things that makes total sense to you, there are others who disagree, and it is their right to do so. In particular, prospects who are older than the league seem to get some prospect hounds hearts a-pounding, when all I'm doing is trying to inject some sense of realism into the discussion, else the discussion degenerates into a talk about what we are going to do with our Mega-Millions lottery winnings. So they have the right to think that, but so do I have a right to my opinion. So who is right?
And that's where data comes in, to try to provide an answer. That was my first step to becoming a defender of Sabean over the years, I was like others, complaining about his drafting skills, but unlike others, I pulled the draft data and found that finding a good player, who is a starter and one likely to reach and become a wealthy free agent, is one of the hardest things to do, worse than trying to hit a baseball for a base hit, if you have a draft pick after the Top 5 picks or so, on average. Then, as the saying goes, it gets a lot worse from there.
So in this study, I'm going to look at the South Atlantic League (or SALLY to aficionados) over a period of years (2000-2005) to see what the data says about that, whether much older or much younger than the league. I pulled the Top 100 leaders in OPS and K/BB for each season, then sorted them by age to group them. Baseball-Reference.com kindly bolds the ones that have made the majors, then I separated out the ones that I recognized as a good player.
I was hoping to also show quality by breaking out the good major leaguers by eyeballing them. Unfortunately, my eyeballs aren't up to what they were before, so I'm delaying that portion of my study until I have time to go through all the major leaguers and put them into two categories, good major leaguer or other. This post will just cover the percentage of these top prospects making the majors.
What I wanted to do was put in a qualitative view by separating out the ones who actually were productive, and not just contributors. For example, I don't count Gregor Blanco as a recognized good player. He has been clearly been valuable, but has not really made a name for himself in the league yet. Plus some of these data points might still go up some if anyone breaks out late, but generally, the success rate is so low already in terms of just making the majors, that it won't really won't make that much difference, in my opinion, had I finished up that part of the study. But I decided to be more precise in my categorization.
However, I still think that showing just the percentage of these leaders who made the majors, broken up by age, shows good information for prospect hounds to consider when they are looking at prospects in the minors.
But like some things that makes total sense to you, there are others who disagree, and it is their right to do so. In particular, prospects who are older than the league seem to get some prospect hounds hearts a-pounding, when all I'm doing is trying to inject some sense of realism into the discussion, else the discussion degenerates into a talk about what we are going to do with our Mega-Millions lottery winnings. So they have the right to think that, but so do I have a right to my opinion. So who is right?
And that's where data comes in, to try to provide an answer. That was my first step to becoming a defender of Sabean over the years, I was like others, complaining about his drafting skills, but unlike others, I pulled the draft data and found that finding a good player, who is a starter and one likely to reach and become a wealthy free agent, is one of the hardest things to do, worse than trying to hit a baseball for a base hit, if you have a draft pick after the Top 5 picks or so, on average. Then, as the saying goes, it gets a lot worse from there.
So in this study, I'm going to look at the South Atlantic League (or SALLY to aficionados) over a period of years (2000-2005) to see what the data says about that, whether much older or much younger than the league. I pulled the Top 100 leaders in OPS and K/BB for each season, then sorted them by age to group them. Baseball-Reference.com kindly bolds the ones that have made the majors, then I separated out the ones that I recognized as a good player.
I was hoping to also show quality by breaking out the good major leaguers by eyeballing them. Unfortunately, my eyeballs aren't up to what they were before, so I'm delaying that portion of my study until I have time to go through all the major leaguers and put them into two categories, good major leaguer or other. This post will just cover the percentage of these top prospects making the majors.
What I wanted to do was put in a qualitative view by separating out the ones who actually were productive, and not just contributors. For example, I don't count Gregor Blanco as a recognized good player. He has been clearly been valuable, but has not really made a name for himself in the league yet. Plus some of these data points might still go up some if anyone breaks out late, but generally, the success rate is so low already in terms of just making the majors, that it won't really won't make that much difference, in my opinion, had I finished up that part of the study. But I decided to be more precise in my categorization.
However, I still think that showing just the percentage of these leaders who made the majors, broken up by age, shows good information for prospect hounds to consider when they are looking at prospects in the minors.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
2009 Organizational Standings
Baseball America recently posted the organizational standings for all team's farms systems, including short-season.
The Giants had the best farm system, with a collective 411-286 record and .590 winning percentage. They were 125 games above .500. Second was the Yankees, with a .552 winning percentage and 72 games above .500. So the Giants minor league system did extremely well in 2009, with almost double the number of games above .500 than the second place team.
Salem-Keizer and San Jose were the league champions and AZL Giants and Connecticut Defenders were runner-ups. With 4 of these, they were one ahead of the Yankees, who had two league champs and one runner-up. And only six other teams had two of them, no other had two champions.
Most teams had only 6 affiliates, but seven teams had 7 affiliates. The Giants only had 6. I assume there is no link, but most of the ones with 7 were in the bottom in winning percentage: Astros, Mets, Orioles, Cardinals, Royals were in the bottom 10; Rays were 17th but under .500; only the Mariners were over .500, and they were 10th.
Hopefully, this bodes well for the future for the Giants, but there is no causal link between success in the minors and subsequent success in the majors, that I'm aware of. Still, winning is good, it gives our young prospects experience with the playoffs and the pressures therein. Plus it would help build up their confidence plus you want them used to winning, not used to losing.
The Giants had the best farm system, with a collective 411-286 record and .590 winning percentage. They were 125 games above .500. Second was the Yankees, with a .552 winning percentage and 72 games above .500. So the Giants minor league system did extremely well in 2009, with almost double the number of games above .500 than the second place team.
Salem-Keizer and San Jose were the league champions and AZL Giants and Connecticut Defenders were runner-ups. With 4 of these, they were one ahead of the Yankees, who had two league champs and one runner-up. And only six other teams had two of them, no other had two champions.
Most teams had only 6 affiliates, but seven teams had 7 affiliates. The Giants only had 6. I assume there is no link, but most of the ones with 7 were in the bottom in winning percentage: Astros, Mets, Orioles, Cardinals, Royals were in the bottom 10; Rays were 17th but under .500; only the Mariners were over .500, and they were 10th.
Hopefully, this bodes well for the future for the Giants, but there is no causal link between success in the minors and subsequent success in the majors, that I'm aware of. Still, winning is good, it gives our young prospects experience with the playoffs and the pressures therein. Plus it would help build up their confidence plus you want them used to winning, not used to losing.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Giants Minors Great 2009 Season
As noted by Matt, many of the Giants minor league affiliates have done well this season, so I thought I would note some of their accomplishments here, as I give them hearty congratulations on their achieivements.
Arizona Rookie League Giants
First off, the Giants Arizona Rookie League team advanced to the Championship game, as they posted the league's best overall record during the regular season. They are seeking to win their second straight title. They were forced into a one-game playoff by the Angels, who were the East Division second-half co-champions by beating the Giants in the last game of the season.
The team ranked second with a 3.39 ERA and third with 321 runs scored (5.7 runs scored per game). RHP Cameron Lamb led the staff, as the Giants' lone All-Star. Former Giant Mike Caldwell was the pitching coach; I always wondered why the Giants traded him away, he went on to win 22 games in a season for the Brewers the next season.
Offense was this team's forte, though. C Hector Sanchez and SS Julio Izturis led the team with high batting averages, and high OPS. There were no big HR hitter, though Chris Dominguez, our 3rd round pick in this year's draft, was one of the hitters who did well here, playing only briefly for the team but blasting 2 HR in 36 AB while there; he was tied for second on the team, and the leader only had 3 HR in 148 AB, Sundrendy Windster (what a name!). Top international signee Rafael Rodriguez did OK in his first action as a professional. He played LF (RF was his position when he signed) and he hit .299/.392/.362/.754 in 127 AB with 19 RBI. He had 16 walks and 23 strikeouts.
Short Season Class A Salem-Keizer Volcanoes
The Volcanoes clinched another West Division title over the weekend. This is their 4th straight appearance in the Finals, having won two in a round before losing last season. If they can win this season, it would be their 3rd in 4 years. There is still about a week's worth of games left and they are 43-26.
Lots of contributors. 3B Drew Biery was one of the offensive leaders on the team, second in HR (6) , first in RBI (44), hitting .333/.409/.505/.914 in 192 AB. SS Ryan Cavan was also a big contributor, hitting .259/.388/.443/.830 with 5 HR in 174 AB, 34 walks and 33 strikeouts. There were some nice contributors in less than season's worth of games too. RF Francisco Peguero hit .394/.421/.465/.886 in 71 AB with 12 RBI. 3B Chris Dominguez continued his hot hitting in AZ, hitting .260/.310/.474/.784 with 9 HR in 154 AB and 27 RBI. His 9 HR led the team. Ryan Mantle, Mickey's relative, was also on the team, but he didn't do that well in RF.
The pitching staff was led by Jorge Bucardo, 2.70 ERA, 62 K/20 BB in 76.2 IP and Jeremy Toole, 2.74 ERA, 41 K/20 BB in 46.0 IP. In the bullpen Jose Casilla had 11 saves in 23 appearances, 1.08 ERA, 28 K/8 BB in 25.0 IP. David Quinowski also did well with 1.75 ERA, 46 K/15 BB in 36.0 IP. Craig Westcott came in this year's draft and did nicely too, 6 starts, 2.73 ERA, 37 K/8 BB in 26.1 IP. Former Giant Brian Cooper is their pitching coach.
Class A Augusta Greenjackets
Augusta Greenjackets was closing in for a second half title before losing three straight games. Still, they have put together a nice season, and some players have stepped to the fore. One player noted above was CF Francisco Peguero, and he let this team in OPS, hitting .348/.368/.444/.813 with 32 RBI in 207 AB, 31 strikeouts (pretty good) and 13 SB in 17 attempts. DH Andy D'Alessio, CF Ben Woodbury, 1B Josh Mazzola, and C Johnny Monell also did OK, around .800 OPS. Mazzola led the team with 15 HR in 460 AB, 93 RBI also led (but 118 K). Other notable names, but who didn't do that well, included Juan Carlos Perez, Wendell Fairley, Ehire Adrianza, and Charlie Culberson.
Pitchers of note include Dan Runzler, Trey Webb, Ryan Verdugo, Andrew Reichard, Ari Ronick, Kyle Nicholson, adn Eric Surkamp. Runzler didn't spend much time here but dominated as he got promoted repeatedly this season. Former Giant Steve Kline is their pitching coach.
Advanced A San Jose Giants
San Jose completed a season sweep of the Cal League's North Division, winning both the first-half and second-half championships for the second season in a row. They started the season with all of the Giants top prospects - Bumgarner, Posey, Alderson, Villalona - and good performances from other highly ranked prospects, like Brandon Crawford, Roger Kieschnick, Nick Noonan. This team had probably the most Giants top prospects on one team ever in the history of the Giants franchise (didn't check, gut call) but started out out of sync and losing a lot before turning things around.
The team was led offensively by Thomas Neal, Buster Posey, and Roger Kieschnick. Kieshnick and Neal were 1-2 in HR with 23 and 22 respectively, and Posey was no slouch either with 13. Neal hit .333/.425/.585/1.010 with 22 HR in 448 AB, 86 RBI, 59 walks and 94 strikeouts. Posey hit .326/.428/.540/.967 with 13 HR in 291 AB, 58 RBI, 45 walks and 45 strikeouts. Kieschnick hit .299/.348/.541/.890 with 23 hR in 495 AB, 106 RBI, 35 walks and 125 strikeouts. Darren Ford also did well and led the team with 31 SB, hitting .291/.381/.444/.825. Other name prospects who only did OK were Conor Gillaspie, Nick Noonan, and Angel Villalona. Tyler Graham did OK too. Brian Bocock, however, did poorly again.
Pitching was led by Scott Barnes (since traded), Craig Clark, and Clayton Tanner. They all had ERA's around 3.00 and put in a lot of innings. Of course, Bumgarner and Alderson led the way when they were there. Others who did well there included Dan Runzler, Steve Edlefsen, Dan Turpen, Wilmin Rodriquez, Garrett Broshius, and Kyle Nicholson.
Class AA Connecticut Defenders
The Connecticut Defenders, in their last season there, won the Northern Division title for the first time as a Giants affiliate. As usual, it is their pitching who led the way. Madison Bumgarner started 17 games and went 9-1 with a 1.91 ERA, with 68 K/29 BB in 99.0 IP and only 76 hits. Looks like he reached his level, as his strikeout rate dropped greatly. If he were still striking out over 9 K/9, I would think that the Giants would at least entertain the thought of bringing him up for a September call-up. For now, just let him enjoy the season and prepare for AAA next season.
There were other pitchers of note. Henry Sosa raised his prospect status with 14 starts, 2.36 ERA, but only 44 K in 72.1 IP (though only 25 BB). Dan Runzler also passed through here and again was dazzling in relief, 0.96 ERA, 11 K in 9.1 IP (5 hits and 7 walks, too high there but small samples). Dan Otero led the team with 19 saves, had a 1.15 ERA, 31 K/10 BB. Joe Paterson was second with 10 saves, had a 2.07 ERA, 66 K/24 BB in 65.1 IP. Matt Yourkin, Ben Synder, and Waldis Joaquin also did very well in relief.
Nothing much happening on offense, as expected. Leaders were 2B Brock Bond, RF Eddy Martinez-Esteve, 1B Brett Pill, 3B Brad Boyer, and CF Mike McBryde. There were all around .800 OPS. Pill led the team in HR with 15 in 493 AB and only 68 strikeouts vs. 34 walks. He also led with 100 RBI. EME was a far second with 8 HR and 63 RBI, hitting .300/.370/.440/.810 in 416 AB, 45 walks, 56 strikeouts. Bond hit .333/.430/.405/.835 with 64 walks, 51 strikeouts in 420 AB. Top prospects who did not do well included Brandon Crawford, Jackson Williams, Sharlon Schoop, Antoan Richardson, and Brian Bocock.
Class AAA Fresno Grizzlies
Fresno as usual was far back in the pack. They were led on offense by John Bowker and Jesus Guzman, with ample support from Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, Kevin Frandsen, Eugenio Velez, Joe Borchard, Brian Horwitz, and Eli Whiteside. Bowker hit .340/.449/.597/1.046 with 21 HR in 362 AB, 73 walks and 64 strikeouts. He even got 10 SB. Guzman hit .321/.379/.502/.881 with 15 HR in 448 AB, 36 walks and 80 strikeouts. Bowker led the team in HR and RBI, Guzman was 3rd in both, and Ryan Rohlinger was 2nd in both, at least currently, since he's in the majors and unable to add to his stats in the minors (which I'm sure he does not mind, particularly after that clutch double to drive in two runs over the weekend).
Buster Posey was also a big contributor, coming in mid-season. After a slow start, he hit well for an overall .310/.384/.508/.891 with 5 HR in 126 AB, 17 walks and 23 strikeouts. He also drove in 20 RBI and scored 20 runs. He is going to play in the Arizona Fall League and I have to assume that if he does well there as well, he would have to be seriously considered for the starting job in 2010. However, they could do the Wieters thing and start him in AAA in 2010 and bring him up later to start, but then that would take a starting catcher to hold the spot for him. Eli Whiteside has done well the past week, but I doubt they will go with him. And Molina wants a two year contract, claiming he wouldn't hold Posey back, though I don't see how that would work if Posey is ready sometime next season.
Not much to note on the pitching side, other than relievers. Steve Edlefsen had a 1.78 ERA in 19 appearances, 25.1 IP, 21 K, 15 walks, 17 hits. Joaquin has done well in limited (8) appearances, 10.0 IP, 16 strikeouts, only 5 hits and 2 walks. Ramon Ortiz has done well starting and relieving, so he is a candidate for the Giants to bring to take the 5th starter start next. 3.11 ERA, 34 appearances, 15 starts, 121.2 IP, 111 strikeouts, 34 walks, 1.25 WHIP.
Also, there were other pitchers of note. Osirus Matos has a 3.44 ERA in 42 appearances, 49.2 IP, 40 strikeouts, 11 walks. Geno Espinelli was the closer on the Fresno team, with 19 saves in 52 games, 59.1 IP, 31 strikeouts and 13 walks. Alex Hinshaw, Kevin Pucetas, Ryan Sadowski, and Billy Sadler (since released) were also on the pitching staff.
Minor League System
The minor league system of the Giants have been improving the past few years as they have gotten pretty good draft position by being a bad team. It has allowed us to draft players like Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey, and now Wheeler. They have also begun to dive into the deep end of the international free agent pool and signed players like Angel Villalona and Rafael Rodriguez. Plus players like Julio Izturis and Ehire Adrianza. And, of course, Pablo Sandoval a few years past.
Overall, our prospects have not done well this season. Bumgarner's results in AA has to be considered a disappointment, even though he's pitching against players much older than he is. Alderson too, and now he's traded away. Villalona was doing OK for a couple of months then he got injured and was shut down the rest of the season. Only Posey has been all that has been advertised.
Surprises have included Bowker suddenly walking a lot more than before and Runzler climbing the entire system in one season. Neal and Kieschnick have been a nice surprise in Advanced A, as was Crawford before he fell under the spell of Dodd Stadium. Chris Dominguez has also been a nice surprise, signing quickly then quickly doing well for two different teams. Brett Pill did well for AA, despite the bad home, and he didn't strike out much, despite his power profile. Edlefson and Joaquin were highlights this season, and Henry Sosa had a nice comeback season but still need to do more.
Still, the farm system looks ready to contribute more players in the next year or two. Posey and Bumgarner are basically knocking on the door today, it is just a matter of time before they make the majors. A good number of pitchers look like they could be good relievers for us in upcoming years. And Wheeler sounds like he will be pretty good. We should be able to get a few more starting position players out of Bowker, Pill, Neal, Kieschnick, Villalona, Rodriquez, Izturis, Adrianza, and Dominguez. The future still looks pretty good.
Arizona Rookie League Giants
First off, the Giants Arizona Rookie League team advanced to the Championship game, as they posted the league's best overall record during the regular season. They are seeking to win their second straight title. They were forced into a one-game playoff by the Angels, who were the East Division second-half co-champions by beating the Giants in the last game of the season.
The team ranked second with a 3.39 ERA and third with 321 runs scored (5.7 runs scored per game). RHP Cameron Lamb led the staff, as the Giants' lone All-Star. Former Giant Mike Caldwell was the pitching coach; I always wondered why the Giants traded him away, he went on to win 22 games in a season for the Brewers the next season.
Offense was this team's forte, though. C Hector Sanchez and SS Julio Izturis led the team with high batting averages, and high OPS. There were no big HR hitter, though Chris Dominguez, our 3rd round pick in this year's draft, was one of the hitters who did well here, playing only briefly for the team but blasting 2 HR in 36 AB while there; he was tied for second on the team, and the leader only had 3 HR in 148 AB, Sundrendy Windster (what a name!). Top international signee Rafael Rodriguez did OK in his first action as a professional. He played LF (RF was his position when he signed) and he hit .299/.392/.362/.754 in 127 AB with 19 RBI. He had 16 walks and 23 strikeouts.
Short Season Class A Salem-Keizer Volcanoes
The Volcanoes clinched another West Division title over the weekend. This is their 4th straight appearance in the Finals, having won two in a round before losing last season. If they can win this season, it would be their 3rd in 4 years. There is still about a week's worth of games left and they are 43-26.
Lots of contributors. 3B Drew Biery was one of the offensive leaders on the team, second in HR (6) , first in RBI (44), hitting .333/.409/.505/.914 in 192 AB. SS Ryan Cavan was also a big contributor, hitting .259/.388/.443/.830 with 5 HR in 174 AB, 34 walks and 33 strikeouts. There were some nice contributors in less than season's worth of games too. RF Francisco Peguero hit .394/.421/.465/.886 in 71 AB with 12 RBI. 3B Chris Dominguez continued his hot hitting in AZ, hitting .260/.310/.474/.784 with 9 HR in 154 AB and 27 RBI. His 9 HR led the team. Ryan Mantle, Mickey's relative, was also on the team, but he didn't do that well in RF.
The pitching staff was led by Jorge Bucardo, 2.70 ERA, 62 K/20 BB in 76.2 IP and Jeremy Toole, 2.74 ERA, 41 K/20 BB in 46.0 IP. In the bullpen Jose Casilla had 11 saves in 23 appearances, 1.08 ERA, 28 K/8 BB in 25.0 IP. David Quinowski also did well with 1.75 ERA, 46 K/15 BB in 36.0 IP. Craig Westcott came in this year's draft and did nicely too, 6 starts, 2.73 ERA, 37 K/8 BB in 26.1 IP. Former Giant Brian Cooper is their pitching coach.
Class A Augusta Greenjackets
Augusta Greenjackets was closing in for a second half title before losing three straight games. Still, they have put together a nice season, and some players have stepped to the fore. One player noted above was CF Francisco Peguero, and he let this team in OPS, hitting .348/.368/.444/.813 with 32 RBI in 207 AB, 31 strikeouts (pretty good) and 13 SB in 17 attempts. DH Andy D'Alessio, CF Ben Woodbury, 1B Josh Mazzola, and C Johnny Monell also did OK, around .800 OPS. Mazzola led the team with 15 HR in 460 AB, 93 RBI also led (but 118 K). Other notable names, but who didn't do that well, included Juan Carlos Perez, Wendell Fairley, Ehire Adrianza, and Charlie Culberson.
Pitchers of note include Dan Runzler, Trey Webb, Ryan Verdugo, Andrew Reichard, Ari Ronick, Kyle Nicholson, adn Eric Surkamp. Runzler didn't spend much time here but dominated as he got promoted repeatedly this season. Former Giant Steve Kline is their pitching coach.
Advanced A San Jose Giants
San Jose completed a season sweep of the Cal League's North Division, winning both the first-half and second-half championships for the second season in a row. They started the season with all of the Giants top prospects - Bumgarner, Posey, Alderson, Villalona - and good performances from other highly ranked prospects, like Brandon Crawford, Roger Kieschnick, Nick Noonan. This team had probably the most Giants top prospects on one team ever in the history of the Giants franchise (didn't check, gut call) but started out out of sync and losing a lot before turning things around.
The team was led offensively by Thomas Neal, Buster Posey, and Roger Kieschnick. Kieshnick and Neal were 1-2 in HR with 23 and 22 respectively, and Posey was no slouch either with 13. Neal hit .333/.425/.585/1.010 with 22 HR in 448 AB, 86 RBI, 59 walks and 94 strikeouts. Posey hit .326/.428/.540/.967 with 13 HR in 291 AB, 58 RBI, 45 walks and 45 strikeouts. Kieschnick hit .299/.348/.541/.890 with 23 hR in 495 AB, 106 RBI, 35 walks and 125 strikeouts. Darren Ford also did well and led the team with 31 SB, hitting .291/.381/.444/.825. Other name prospects who only did OK were Conor Gillaspie, Nick Noonan, and Angel Villalona. Tyler Graham did OK too. Brian Bocock, however, did poorly again.
Pitching was led by Scott Barnes (since traded), Craig Clark, and Clayton Tanner. They all had ERA's around 3.00 and put in a lot of innings. Of course, Bumgarner and Alderson led the way when they were there. Others who did well there included Dan Runzler, Steve Edlefsen, Dan Turpen, Wilmin Rodriquez, Garrett Broshius, and Kyle Nicholson.
Class AA Connecticut Defenders
The Connecticut Defenders, in their last season there, won the Northern Division title for the first time as a Giants affiliate. As usual, it is their pitching who led the way. Madison Bumgarner started 17 games and went 9-1 with a 1.91 ERA, with 68 K/29 BB in 99.0 IP and only 76 hits. Looks like he reached his level, as his strikeout rate dropped greatly. If he were still striking out over 9 K/9, I would think that the Giants would at least entertain the thought of bringing him up for a September call-up. For now, just let him enjoy the season and prepare for AAA next season.
There were other pitchers of note. Henry Sosa raised his prospect status with 14 starts, 2.36 ERA, but only 44 K in 72.1 IP (though only 25 BB). Dan Runzler also passed through here and again was dazzling in relief, 0.96 ERA, 11 K in 9.1 IP (5 hits and 7 walks, too high there but small samples). Dan Otero led the team with 19 saves, had a 1.15 ERA, 31 K/10 BB. Joe Paterson was second with 10 saves, had a 2.07 ERA, 66 K/24 BB in 65.1 IP. Matt Yourkin, Ben Synder, and Waldis Joaquin also did very well in relief.
Nothing much happening on offense, as expected. Leaders were 2B Brock Bond, RF Eddy Martinez-Esteve, 1B Brett Pill, 3B Brad Boyer, and CF Mike McBryde. There were all around .800 OPS. Pill led the team in HR with 15 in 493 AB and only 68 strikeouts vs. 34 walks. He also led with 100 RBI. EME was a far second with 8 HR and 63 RBI, hitting .300/.370/.440/.810 in 416 AB, 45 walks, 56 strikeouts. Bond hit .333/.430/.405/.835 with 64 walks, 51 strikeouts in 420 AB. Top prospects who did not do well included Brandon Crawford, Jackson Williams, Sharlon Schoop, Antoan Richardson, and Brian Bocock.
Class AAA Fresno Grizzlies
Fresno as usual was far back in the pack. They were led on offense by John Bowker and Jesus Guzman, with ample support from Matt Downs, Ryan Rohlinger, Kevin Frandsen, Eugenio Velez, Joe Borchard, Brian Horwitz, and Eli Whiteside. Bowker hit .340/.449/.597/1.046 with 21 HR in 362 AB, 73 walks and 64 strikeouts. He even got 10 SB. Guzman hit .321/.379/.502/.881 with 15 HR in 448 AB, 36 walks and 80 strikeouts. Bowker led the team in HR and RBI, Guzman was 3rd in both, and Ryan Rohlinger was 2nd in both, at least currently, since he's in the majors and unable to add to his stats in the minors (which I'm sure he does not mind, particularly after that clutch double to drive in two runs over the weekend).
Buster Posey was also a big contributor, coming in mid-season. After a slow start, he hit well for an overall .310/.384/.508/.891 with 5 HR in 126 AB, 17 walks and 23 strikeouts. He also drove in 20 RBI and scored 20 runs. He is going to play in the Arizona Fall League and I have to assume that if he does well there as well, he would have to be seriously considered for the starting job in 2010. However, they could do the Wieters thing and start him in AAA in 2010 and bring him up later to start, but then that would take a starting catcher to hold the spot for him. Eli Whiteside has done well the past week, but I doubt they will go with him. And Molina wants a two year contract, claiming he wouldn't hold Posey back, though I don't see how that would work if Posey is ready sometime next season.
Not much to note on the pitching side, other than relievers. Steve Edlefsen had a 1.78 ERA in 19 appearances, 25.1 IP, 21 K, 15 walks, 17 hits. Joaquin has done well in limited (8) appearances, 10.0 IP, 16 strikeouts, only 5 hits and 2 walks. Ramon Ortiz has done well starting and relieving, so he is a candidate for the Giants to bring to take the 5th starter start next. 3.11 ERA, 34 appearances, 15 starts, 121.2 IP, 111 strikeouts, 34 walks, 1.25 WHIP.
Also, there were other pitchers of note. Osirus Matos has a 3.44 ERA in 42 appearances, 49.2 IP, 40 strikeouts, 11 walks. Geno Espinelli was the closer on the Fresno team, with 19 saves in 52 games, 59.1 IP, 31 strikeouts and 13 walks. Alex Hinshaw, Kevin Pucetas, Ryan Sadowski, and Billy Sadler (since released) were also on the pitching staff.
Minor League System
The minor league system of the Giants have been improving the past few years as they have gotten pretty good draft position by being a bad team. It has allowed us to draft players like Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey, and now Wheeler. They have also begun to dive into the deep end of the international free agent pool and signed players like Angel Villalona and Rafael Rodriguez. Plus players like Julio Izturis and Ehire Adrianza. And, of course, Pablo Sandoval a few years past.
Overall, our prospects have not done well this season. Bumgarner's results in AA has to be considered a disappointment, even though he's pitching against players much older than he is. Alderson too, and now he's traded away. Villalona was doing OK for a couple of months then he got injured and was shut down the rest of the season. Only Posey has been all that has been advertised.
Surprises have included Bowker suddenly walking a lot more than before and Runzler climbing the entire system in one season. Neal and Kieschnick have been a nice surprise in Advanced A, as was Crawford before he fell under the spell of Dodd Stadium. Chris Dominguez has also been a nice surprise, signing quickly then quickly doing well for two different teams. Brett Pill did well for AA, despite the bad home, and he didn't strike out much, despite his power profile. Edlefson and Joaquin were highlights this season, and Henry Sosa had a nice comeback season but still need to do more.
Still, the farm system looks ready to contribute more players in the next year or two. Posey and Bumgarner are basically knocking on the door today, it is just a matter of time before they make the majors. A good number of pitchers look like they could be good relievers for us in upcoming years. And Wheeler sounds like he will be pretty good. We should be able to get a few more starting position players out of Bowker, Pill, Neal, Kieschnick, Villalona, Rodriquez, Izturis, Adrianza, and Dominguez. The future still looks pretty good.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Why the Giants Need to Fix Up Their Minor League Parks
I ran across an interesting article from the LiveScience website on how we learn more from success than failure. Some scientists studied monkeys and monitored neurons in the monkey's prefrontal cortex and the basal ganglia - two areas of the brain thought to be involved in learning. "What surprised the researchers was that these neurons actually became more 'finely tuned' after a correct response than after an incorrect response, meaning that the neurons were able to better distinguish between the two different associations that the monkey was learning."
The researcher noted, "The neurons in these areas improve their tuning, they learn better when the animal had a recent success, versus when the animal had a failure. When the animal had a failure, there was virtually no change in neural processing, the neurons didn't improve at all." In other words, "after a success the monkeys were more likely to get an answer correct on the next trial, indicating a link between the improved neuron activity and the animal's behavior."
This seems to contradict the results of previous studies that suggest that we do learn from mistakes. But the researcher notes that "there's lots of different type of learning, and when you say learning from mistakes, the question is what is the nature of the mistake. In our study, the situation was a reward versus no reward, success versus the absense of success ... but there's some cases where mistakes can actually lead to very bad consequences, like a loss of money, or loss of scholoarship. When the failure actually leads to a negative consequence rather than just the absence of a positive, that might engage learning mechanisms that rely on feedback from that negative consequence, so maybe it's a different situation."
Giants Thoughts
I think both types of failures is at play with minor leaguers. On an AB by AB basis, the players are mostly in a reward versus no reward situation. There is subtle career pressures, but over a whole season, each AB is mostly a reward versus no reward situation.
But over a whole season, then that's when the failures lead to very bad negative consequences: no promotion to the next level, drop in prospect status. The Giants, having pitcher's parks up and down the system, is making it easier for their pitchers to learn but harder for their position prospects.
Here are the park factors for the Giants minor league affiliate parks (from 2009 Baseball Prospectus; 1000 is neutral):
Team - 2006 - 2007 - 2008
Fresno - 970 - 971 - 984
Conn. - 884 - 878 - 888
San Jose - 879 - 873 - 874
Augusta - 958 - 970 - 968
Salem-K - 1000 - 1021 - 1047
Clearly, the Giants have two particularly pitching-oriented parks in AA Connecticut and Advanced A San Jose, and that is a double punch into the gut for our hitting prospects, while boosting our pitching prospects.
This ties in with what I've been saying about Dodd Stadium, in which our AA team plays in, that playing there hurts our hitting prospects who play there. What this research suggests is that our hitting prospects are not learning as much as they can when they are playing in our farm system because of all the pitcher's parks, and particularly in San Jose and then Connecticut.
As I've noted in previous posts, Jonathan Mayo did a study of minor league parks and found that the strikeout rate was the highest in the minors at San Jose, and it was noted by John Bowker in the article that the background makes it hard for hitters to see the ball. That affects our young hitting prospects as well.
With one park or the other, perhaps it wouldn't have as strong an effect on our young hitters, but combining the two together, since most prospects have to go through San Jose and Connecticut, creates a learning deficit for our hitters that makes it that much harder for them to advance higher in the system. And those are critical levels for development and advancement.
Fortunately, Connecticut is moving to Richmond for 2010, which has been a neutral park for prior teams playing there, so that should improve things for the Giants farm system going forward. But the rumor is that the new owners of Richmond want to affiliate with a local MLB team, such as the Washington Nationals, and that would force the Giants to find a new team/park again for AA.
In any case, the Giants have a system full of pitcher's parks, and in two cases, extreme pitcher's parks where the hitters clearly have a mountain to climb over, rather than a pitcher's mound. Learning, as this study sugggests, can only be attained when one experiences successful, but if it's a pitcher's park, the hitters are learning less than prospects playing in a park that is better suited for hitters because they are struggling upstream with less probability of success when hitting in a pitcher's park. Which is basically what I've been saying for a number of years about Dodd Stadium, and now I should probably beat the drum regarding San Jose Municipal Stadium too, now that Dodd is soon to be seen in our rear view mirror.
The researcher noted, "The neurons in these areas improve their tuning, they learn better when the animal had a recent success, versus when the animal had a failure. When the animal had a failure, there was virtually no change in neural processing, the neurons didn't improve at all." In other words, "after a success the monkeys were more likely to get an answer correct on the next trial, indicating a link between the improved neuron activity and the animal's behavior."
This seems to contradict the results of previous studies that suggest that we do learn from mistakes. But the researcher notes that "there's lots of different type of learning, and when you say learning from mistakes, the question is what is the nature of the mistake. In our study, the situation was a reward versus no reward, success versus the absense of success ... but there's some cases where mistakes can actually lead to very bad consequences, like a loss of money, or loss of scholoarship. When the failure actually leads to a negative consequence rather than just the absence of a positive, that might engage learning mechanisms that rely on feedback from that negative consequence, so maybe it's a different situation."
Giants Thoughts
I think both types of failures is at play with minor leaguers. On an AB by AB basis, the players are mostly in a reward versus no reward situation. There is subtle career pressures, but over a whole season, each AB is mostly a reward versus no reward situation.
But over a whole season, then that's when the failures lead to very bad negative consequences: no promotion to the next level, drop in prospect status. The Giants, having pitcher's parks up and down the system, is making it easier for their pitchers to learn but harder for their position prospects.
Here are the park factors for the Giants minor league affiliate parks (from 2009 Baseball Prospectus; 1000 is neutral):
Team - 2006 - 2007 - 2008
Fresno - 970 - 971 - 984
Conn. - 884 - 878 - 888
San Jose - 879 - 873 - 874
Augusta - 958 - 970 - 968
Salem-K - 1000 - 1021 - 1047
Clearly, the Giants have two particularly pitching-oriented parks in AA Connecticut and Advanced A San Jose, and that is a double punch into the gut for our hitting prospects, while boosting our pitching prospects.
This ties in with what I've been saying about Dodd Stadium, in which our AA team plays in, that playing there hurts our hitting prospects who play there. What this research suggests is that our hitting prospects are not learning as much as they can when they are playing in our farm system because of all the pitcher's parks, and particularly in San Jose and then Connecticut.
As I've noted in previous posts, Jonathan Mayo did a study of minor league parks and found that the strikeout rate was the highest in the minors at San Jose, and it was noted by John Bowker in the article that the background makes it hard for hitters to see the ball. That affects our young hitting prospects as well.
With one park or the other, perhaps it wouldn't have as strong an effect on our young hitters, but combining the two together, since most prospects have to go through San Jose and Connecticut, creates a learning deficit for our hitters that makes it that much harder for them to advance higher in the system. And those are critical levels for development and advancement.
Fortunately, Connecticut is moving to Richmond for 2010, which has been a neutral park for prior teams playing there, so that should improve things for the Giants farm system going forward. But the rumor is that the new owners of Richmond want to affiliate with a local MLB team, such as the Washington Nationals, and that would force the Giants to find a new team/park again for AA.
In any case, the Giants have a system full of pitcher's parks, and in two cases, extreme pitcher's parks where the hitters clearly have a mountain to climb over, rather than a pitcher's mound. Learning, as this study sugggests, can only be attained when one experiences successful, but if it's a pitcher's park, the hitters are learning less than prospects playing in a park that is better suited for hitters because they are struggling upstream with less probability of success when hitting in a pitcher's park. Which is basically what I've been saying for a number of years about Dodd Stadium, and now I should probably beat the drum regarding San Jose Municipal Stadium too, now that Dodd is soon to be seen in our rear view mirror.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Buster to Move to Fresno
Do you know the way to Fresno, CA? Buster Posey has been promoted to AAA Fresno, as announced on sfgiants.com and Henry Schulman's blog. Henry noted that Brian Sabean said last month that this was likely to happen. Posey will make his debut in AAA on Thursday in the Grizzlies return from their All-Star Break (Bowker was suppose to be in that game).
For San Jose, he hit .322/.421/.536/.957 with 13 HR in 289 AB (roughly 22 AB/HR or a 25+ HR season) with 60 runs and 57 RBI in 79 games. His ISO was an excellent 215 and his BABIP was .346: only time will tell if that is normal or high.
Walking 44 times and striking out 45 times, his contact rate was just a hair below the desired rate of 85% - he was at 84.4% - but his BB/K was an excellent 0.98 - the best hitters can get it over 1.00 while keeping their contact rate above 85% (that is, K-rate under 15%).
He clobbered LHP and did OK against RHP:
vs. LH: .446/.539/.819/1.358 with 8 HR in 83 AB (11 AB/HR)
vs. RH: .279/.381/.428/.809 with 5 HR in 208 AB (42 AB/HR)
He has also benefited from hitting at home, which is odd because San Jose is a pitchers park in the hitter's league that is the California League:
Home: .378/.483/.608/1.091 with 7 HR in 148 AB (21 AB/HR)
Away: .273/.369/.469/.838 with 6 HR in 143 AB (24 AB/HR)
Perhaps that bad patch he had in May was on the road, pulling down those stats:
APR: .366/.447/.646/1.093 with 5 HR in 82 AB and 11 walks and 13 K's
MAY: .245/.319/.382/.701 with 3 HR in 102 AB and 8 walks and 18 K's (elevated K-rate)
JUN: .385/.529/.631/1.160 with 3 HR in 65 AB and 18 walks and 8 K's
JUL: .357/.462/.571/1.033 with 2 HR in 42 AB and 8 walks and 6 K's
As one can see, he greatly improved his walk rate and kept his K-rate (contact rate) around where it is suppose to be if you are good (much like how Pablo Sandoval did while in the minors). Even the pitch to his head in late June did not slow him down much once he got back in June. I noticed that after a couple of oh-fers, he just started hitting again.
He spent most of his time in San Jose batting fourth, clean-up, and he did best there, obviously, since his overall numbers are so good. He did not bat well in the 3 hole however, his OPS there was .754, not close to as good as he has done overall.
Amazingly, he hit this well with a high ground ball rate of 52% and a low FB rate of 30%. His HR/FB rate is about double what it normally is for the majors in general, which is roughly 10%, though each batter has his own HR/FB rate. He could just be that good or it could just be a fluke to be aware of, but at 16%, that is usually the stratified region where sluggers reside, and Buster is a slight looking guy. It was his great hitting with fly balls and particularly line drives that made up for his greatly elevated ground ball rate that normally would kill a hitters overall batting line. I don't have the splits for this, but I would hazard a guess that he hit a lot of ground balls in May, when he scuffled for a bit. I would love to see his splits for ground balls, fly balls, and line drives by month.
Giants Thoughts
He is El Machino, grinding up Advanced A and jumping to AAA. By age, he was actually young for the league: the average hitter was 22.7 years old and the average pitcher was 23.0 years old. But he hit like he was many years older, because experience conveys a significant advantage relative to the league. For a comparison, look at what Sandoval did at age 21 repeating Advanced A last season, with roughly the same amount of AB:
Pablo: .359/.412/.597/1.009 with 12 HR in 301 AB (roughly 25 AB/HR), 23 BB, 39 K
Posey: .322/.421/.536/.957 with 13 HR in 289 AB (roughly 22 AB/HR ), 44 BB, 45 K
They were very similar, though Posey did walk much more and Pablo was one year younger than Posey, though he was also repeating the level.
Clearly, Buster is on the fast track to the majors now, jumping to AAA. Buster now has 80 games under his belt in the minors, plus another roughly 15-20 games in the final Hawaii Winter League, helping the Beach Boys win their first championship, plus, as reported, his being brought back to instructional league for direct tutoring on the nuances of catching professionally. He should get roughly another 50 games in the minors and whatever else he gets in the majors if he is called up in September. If there is a pennant race going on, I would bet on it.
Now, from what I have read, catchers need roughly 200-250 games played to be ready for the majors. He'll have 150 plus whatever he plays in the majors in September, plus I would expect that he would be put in the AFL this year if we are allowed to place a catcher, which should get him another 20-40 games, depending on how they use him (the HWL used him only once every three games, one reason why he got pulled). Weiters basically followed this path and thus the games he played in the minors this season put him into that experience range that experts think is needed to be ready for the majors. Posey would be short that experience at the start of next season, based on what I tallied above.
However, Weiters, at best, is considered a competent catcher ultimately. Posey has been rated as an above average receiver, with arm strength, receiving skills, and a quick release, plus he rates high on baseball acumen. Baseball America says that he profiles as a catcher in the mold of Joe Mauer, who is considered one of the best defensive catchers today, adding half a win to one win per season, according to Baseball Prospectus. He's also very athletic, which is not surprisingly since he once played all 9 positions in a game in college.
Thus, to me, it would seem that he should be able to make the jump to the majors next season, both offensively and defensively. He will probably struggle initially, but if we sign an experienced catcher who is good defensively, both as mentor and as backup in case Buster struggles too much, we should be covered at the catching position in 2010. Plus, Sandoval could catch a few games himself. In addition, should Posey struggle at catcher, he could at least be a utility player and give other position players a rest while getting to hit.
Experienced free agent catchers this off-season, with some defensive street-cred, includes Brad Ausmus (age - 41), Rod Barajas (34), Jason Kendall (36), Jose Molina (35), I-Rod (38), and maybe Gregg Zaun (39; club option). If the Giants want to make Bengie feel OK at some level with moving on, they could sign his brother, Jose Molina. And it won't be a pitty signing. According to the Fielding Bible, Jose Molina is a very good catcher.
Despite not being a full-time player like his brothers, according to the Adjusted Earned Runs Saved (AERS) stat that is being developed for catchers by the author of the Fielding Bible, Jose has saved about as many runs as his brothers over the past 3 and 6 years. In a 3 year period, Jose is 7th overall with 6 AERS, while Yadier is 8th with 5 AERS and Bengie is 12th with 4. In a 6 year period, Yadier is 8th with 9, Jose is 10th with 8, and Bengie is 15th with 4.
But remember, Yadier and Bengie are starting catchers. Jose, at best, has been Mike Mussina's and Andy Pettitte's personal catcher on the Yankees. However, for every pitcher Jose handled on the Yankees, the pitcher pitched better with Jose catching than any other catcher, according to the Fielding Bible research. According to the raw Earned Runs Saved data, Jose was better than Ivan Rodriguez, who is considered one of the best catchers of his generation.
Based on the last six years, the top five catchers by AERS are Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, I-Rod, Chris Snyder, and Gregg Zaun; based on the last three, they are Kendall, Ronny Paulino, Brian McCann, I-Rod, and Brad Ausmus. Kendall, I-Rod, Ausmus, and perhaps Zaun will be free agents this off-season. But these are not adjusted for playing time and I would guess that had it been, Jose would have easily jumped into the top five for both lists, though probably not at the top, somewhere below that but definitely top five.
Great defense, should be cheap because he's not looking for starting money, Jose looks like he would be the best to sign. He did make $2M per year the past two years, so he won't be totally cheap. But that appears to be the going rate, with a King George bump-up because he can.
Zaun is making $2M himself, so perhaps that is the going rate for great defensive backup catchers, though he was actually the starter until Wieters was brought up; I have to assume he knew that was going to happen and signed accordingly. Ausmus is only making $1M with the D-gers as their backup, and signing him would give us inside information on how the D-gers work internally, as well as how Torre does things. He probably got much less both because he's much older and because Russell Martin should get the vast majority of the catching starts for the D-gers.
Kendall, who is still a starter and probably wouldn't sign with us because he's looking to start, got $5.0M based on the 2009 option vesting. Bengie Molina is getting $6M from us this year plus performance bonuses based on games started that should net him another $0.5M probably, plus his 2009 salary increases by 50% of performance bonuses earned in 2007-08, which probably adds another $0.5M. I-Rod, while a starter, only got $1.5M for 2009 plus up to $1.5M in performance bonuses based on PA and games played and he looks like he will earn all that for a total of $3.0M. He got a lesser contract because he basically signed near the end of spring training. I don't think we can sign any of these to partner with Posey.
To sum up, Jose Molina looks like the best choice for the money, skill, and age. Great defense, great handling of pitchers, and I assume he would be willing to teach Posey his tricks of the trade and that Posey will absorb everything like a sponge. We probably can sign him for a long-term contract (2-3 years) at $1.0-1.5M and thus pair him up with Posey. He won't have Posey's offense, but his defense would be so good that it would make up some for that loss in offense.
I think Ausmus would be a good second choice, but on a year by year basis since he's already 41, because he is strong defensively and would be able to give us good information regarding the D-gers operations, particularly since he is an aspiring manager, and would be viewing the entire D-gers operations like a manager. We could give him the carrot that the Giants have already hired a number of former catchers as managers - Decker, Skeels, Trebelhorn, Bochy - and would be open to him starting his managerial career in our minors.
And Zaun would be a close third choice, as he has already done the caddy/support act with the Orioles and is apparently OK with it. He's also younger than Ausmus and better offensively and defensively, and thus might have more to share with Posey as a tutor. And he hasn't been that far removed from being a full-time starter, only since a month or so ago, while Ausmus was last a full-time starter in 2006, though he did get into the majority of the games in 2007.
This helps cover us at the catching position no matter the scenario. Obviously, if Posey transitions smoothly, our backup would be just that plus provide tips much like Randy Johnson has been greatly influencing our starters, particularly Sanchez and Cain, though also Lincecum, as the Kid wants to learn how to strike out a lot while also lasting deep into games.
If Posey struggles but is OK enough to stay up, he and the backup can share the position, plus Sandoval can take some of the starts with Posey starting at 3B - one scenario I like for the future is that Posey can be the starting catcher and Sandoval the starting 3B, but when Posey needs a rest, he starts at 3B and Sandoval starts at C, thus giving him a bit of a rest but we don't lose his bat from the lineup either. Again, the backup would share his knowledge with Posey.
If Posey struggles so badly that he needs to be sent down to AAA, the backup catcher would be good enough to catch a significant number of games and the Giants would also start Sandoval a good number of games, more than a backup would normally get, though that would screw us up at 3B. Uribe has been pretty good starting part-time at 3B this season but perhaps this could be a way to give Frandsen some regular starts, putting him at 3B, assuming he is not already starting at 2B. In this scenario, Frandsen could be the uber-utility guy that some suggests is his role, a Chone Figgins type who gets a lot of starts around the field and thus playing a lot, but is not the full-time starter at a particular position.
For San Jose, he hit .322/.421/.536/.957 with 13 HR in 289 AB (roughly 22 AB/HR or a 25+ HR season) with 60 runs and 57 RBI in 79 games. His ISO was an excellent 215 and his BABIP was .346: only time will tell if that is normal or high.
Walking 44 times and striking out 45 times, his contact rate was just a hair below the desired rate of 85% - he was at 84.4% - but his BB/K was an excellent 0.98 - the best hitters can get it over 1.00 while keeping their contact rate above 85% (that is, K-rate under 15%).
He clobbered LHP and did OK against RHP:
vs. LH: .446/.539/.819/1.358 with 8 HR in 83 AB (11 AB/HR)
vs. RH: .279/.381/.428/.809 with 5 HR in 208 AB (42 AB/HR)
He has also benefited from hitting at home, which is odd because San Jose is a pitchers park in the hitter's league that is the California League:
Home: .378/.483/.608/1.091 with 7 HR in 148 AB (21 AB/HR)
Away: .273/.369/.469/.838 with 6 HR in 143 AB (24 AB/HR)
Perhaps that bad patch he had in May was on the road, pulling down those stats:
APR: .366/.447/.646/1.093 with 5 HR in 82 AB and 11 walks and 13 K's
MAY: .245/.319/.382/.701 with 3 HR in 102 AB and 8 walks and 18 K's (elevated K-rate)
JUN: .385/.529/.631/1.160 with 3 HR in 65 AB and 18 walks and 8 K's
JUL: .357/.462/.571/1.033 with 2 HR in 42 AB and 8 walks and 6 K's
As one can see, he greatly improved his walk rate and kept his K-rate (contact rate) around where it is suppose to be if you are good (much like how Pablo Sandoval did while in the minors). Even the pitch to his head in late June did not slow him down much once he got back in June. I noticed that after a couple of oh-fers, he just started hitting again.
He spent most of his time in San Jose batting fourth, clean-up, and he did best there, obviously, since his overall numbers are so good. He did not bat well in the 3 hole however, his OPS there was .754, not close to as good as he has done overall.
Amazingly, he hit this well with a high ground ball rate of 52% and a low FB rate of 30%. His HR/FB rate is about double what it normally is for the majors in general, which is roughly 10%, though each batter has his own HR/FB rate. He could just be that good or it could just be a fluke to be aware of, but at 16%, that is usually the stratified region where sluggers reside, and Buster is a slight looking guy. It was his great hitting with fly balls and particularly line drives that made up for his greatly elevated ground ball rate that normally would kill a hitters overall batting line. I don't have the splits for this, but I would hazard a guess that he hit a lot of ground balls in May, when he scuffled for a bit. I would love to see his splits for ground balls, fly balls, and line drives by month.
Giants Thoughts
He is El Machino, grinding up Advanced A and jumping to AAA. By age, he was actually young for the league: the average hitter was 22.7 years old and the average pitcher was 23.0 years old. But he hit like he was many years older, because experience conveys a significant advantage relative to the league. For a comparison, look at what Sandoval did at age 21 repeating Advanced A last season, with roughly the same amount of AB:
Pablo: .359/.412/.597/1.009 with 12 HR in 301 AB (roughly 25 AB/HR), 23 BB, 39 K
Posey: .322/.421/.536/.957 with 13 HR in 289 AB (roughly 22 AB/HR ), 44 BB, 45 K
They were very similar, though Posey did walk much more and Pablo was one year younger than Posey, though he was also repeating the level.
Clearly, Buster is on the fast track to the majors now, jumping to AAA. Buster now has 80 games under his belt in the minors, plus another roughly 15-20 games in the final Hawaii Winter League, helping the Beach Boys win their first championship, plus, as reported, his being brought back to instructional league for direct tutoring on the nuances of catching professionally. He should get roughly another 50 games in the minors and whatever else he gets in the majors if he is called up in September. If there is a pennant race going on, I would bet on it.
Now, from what I have read, catchers need roughly 200-250 games played to be ready for the majors. He'll have 150 plus whatever he plays in the majors in September, plus I would expect that he would be put in the AFL this year if we are allowed to place a catcher, which should get him another 20-40 games, depending on how they use him (the HWL used him only once every three games, one reason why he got pulled). Weiters basically followed this path and thus the games he played in the minors this season put him into that experience range that experts think is needed to be ready for the majors. Posey would be short that experience at the start of next season, based on what I tallied above.
However, Weiters, at best, is considered a competent catcher ultimately. Posey has been rated as an above average receiver, with arm strength, receiving skills, and a quick release, plus he rates high on baseball acumen. Baseball America says that he profiles as a catcher in the mold of Joe Mauer, who is considered one of the best defensive catchers today, adding half a win to one win per season, according to Baseball Prospectus. He's also very athletic, which is not surprisingly since he once played all 9 positions in a game in college.
Thus, to me, it would seem that he should be able to make the jump to the majors next season, both offensively and defensively. He will probably struggle initially, but if we sign an experienced catcher who is good defensively, both as mentor and as backup in case Buster struggles too much, we should be covered at the catching position in 2010. Plus, Sandoval could catch a few games himself. In addition, should Posey struggle at catcher, he could at least be a utility player and give other position players a rest while getting to hit.
Experienced free agent catchers this off-season, with some defensive street-cred, includes Brad Ausmus (age - 41), Rod Barajas (34), Jason Kendall (36), Jose Molina (35), I-Rod (38), and maybe Gregg Zaun (39; club option). If the Giants want to make Bengie feel OK at some level with moving on, they could sign his brother, Jose Molina. And it won't be a pitty signing. According to the Fielding Bible, Jose Molina is a very good catcher.
Despite not being a full-time player like his brothers, according to the Adjusted Earned Runs Saved (AERS) stat that is being developed for catchers by the author of the Fielding Bible, Jose has saved about as many runs as his brothers over the past 3 and 6 years. In a 3 year period, Jose is 7th overall with 6 AERS, while Yadier is 8th with 5 AERS and Bengie is 12th with 4. In a 6 year period, Yadier is 8th with 9, Jose is 10th with 8, and Bengie is 15th with 4.
But remember, Yadier and Bengie are starting catchers. Jose, at best, has been Mike Mussina's and Andy Pettitte's personal catcher on the Yankees. However, for every pitcher Jose handled on the Yankees, the pitcher pitched better with Jose catching than any other catcher, according to the Fielding Bible research. According to the raw Earned Runs Saved data, Jose was better than Ivan Rodriguez, who is considered one of the best catchers of his generation.
Based on the last six years, the top five catchers by AERS are Jason Kendall, Paul Lo Duca, I-Rod, Chris Snyder, and Gregg Zaun; based on the last three, they are Kendall, Ronny Paulino, Brian McCann, I-Rod, and Brad Ausmus. Kendall, I-Rod, Ausmus, and perhaps Zaun will be free agents this off-season. But these are not adjusted for playing time and I would guess that had it been, Jose would have easily jumped into the top five for both lists, though probably not at the top, somewhere below that but definitely top five.
Great defense, should be cheap because he's not looking for starting money, Jose looks like he would be the best to sign. He did make $2M per year the past two years, so he won't be totally cheap. But that appears to be the going rate, with a King George bump-up because he can.
Zaun is making $2M himself, so perhaps that is the going rate for great defensive backup catchers, though he was actually the starter until Wieters was brought up; I have to assume he knew that was going to happen and signed accordingly. Ausmus is only making $1M with the D-gers as their backup, and signing him would give us inside information on how the D-gers work internally, as well as how Torre does things. He probably got much less both because he's much older and because Russell Martin should get the vast majority of the catching starts for the D-gers.
Kendall, who is still a starter and probably wouldn't sign with us because he's looking to start, got $5.0M based on the 2009 option vesting. Bengie Molina is getting $6M from us this year plus performance bonuses based on games started that should net him another $0.5M probably, plus his 2009 salary increases by 50% of performance bonuses earned in 2007-08, which probably adds another $0.5M. I-Rod, while a starter, only got $1.5M for 2009 plus up to $1.5M in performance bonuses based on PA and games played and he looks like he will earn all that for a total of $3.0M. He got a lesser contract because he basically signed near the end of spring training. I don't think we can sign any of these to partner with Posey.
To sum up, Jose Molina looks like the best choice for the money, skill, and age. Great defense, great handling of pitchers, and I assume he would be willing to teach Posey his tricks of the trade and that Posey will absorb everything like a sponge. We probably can sign him for a long-term contract (2-3 years) at $1.0-1.5M and thus pair him up with Posey. He won't have Posey's offense, but his defense would be so good that it would make up some for that loss in offense.
I think Ausmus would be a good second choice, but on a year by year basis since he's already 41, because he is strong defensively and would be able to give us good information regarding the D-gers operations, particularly since he is an aspiring manager, and would be viewing the entire D-gers operations like a manager. We could give him the carrot that the Giants have already hired a number of former catchers as managers - Decker, Skeels, Trebelhorn, Bochy - and would be open to him starting his managerial career in our minors.
And Zaun would be a close third choice, as he has already done the caddy/support act with the Orioles and is apparently OK with it. He's also younger than Ausmus and better offensively and defensively, and thus might have more to share with Posey as a tutor. And he hasn't been that far removed from being a full-time starter, only since a month or so ago, while Ausmus was last a full-time starter in 2006, though he did get into the majority of the games in 2007.
This helps cover us at the catching position no matter the scenario. Obviously, if Posey transitions smoothly, our backup would be just that plus provide tips much like Randy Johnson has been greatly influencing our starters, particularly Sanchez and Cain, though also Lincecum, as the Kid wants to learn how to strike out a lot while also lasting deep into games.
If Posey struggles but is OK enough to stay up, he and the backup can share the position, plus Sandoval can take some of the starts with Posey starting at 3B - one scenario I like for the future is that Posey can be the starting catcher and Sandoval the starting 3B, but when Posey needs a rest, he starts at 3B and Sandoval starts at C, thus giving him a bit of a rest but we don't lose his bat from the lineup either. Again, the backup would share his knowledge with Posey.
If Posey struggles so badly that he needs to be sent down to AAA, the backup catcher would be good enough to catch a significant number of games and the Giants would also start Sandoval a good number of games, more than a backup would normally get, though that would screw us up at 3B. Uribe has been pretty good starting part-time at 3B this season but perhaps this could be a way to give Frandsen some regular starts, putting him at 3B, assuming he is not already starting at 2B. In this scenario, Frandsen could be the uber-utility guy that some suggests is his role, a Chone Figgins type who gets a lot of starts around the field and thus playing a lot, but is not the full-time starter at a particular position.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Giants Prospects Overview
Jonathan Mayo, the resident expert of prospects for MILB.com, has recently wrote two excellent articles on the Giants and their farm system. One covers 10 prospects to watch, and the other is an organizational overview that covers some more of the young prospects the Giants could be counting on in the years to come. He was the expert who clued me into Tim Lincecum and made me think that we had a chance to select The Kid with the #10 pick.
Top 10
Not too many surprises. No order, just an alphabetical listing:
- Tim Alderson
- Scott Barnes
- Madison Bumgarner
- Conor Gillaspie
- Roger Kieschnick
- Nick Noonan
- Buster Posey
- Kevin Pucetas
- Rafael Rodriguez
- Angel Villalona
The main surprise would be Scott Barnes. Don't get me wrong, he's good enough to make the list, but not all agree on that, I've seen lists without him on it. Here is some snippets of good info:
- Tim Alderson: "He has a delivery that makes it tough for hitters to pick up the ball. And the stuff that comes out of it is pretty darn good, with a fastball he can run up to 93 mph with movement, plus curve and developing changeup."
- Scott Barnes: "He is the quintessential pitchability lefty with tremendous command of his fastball, changeup and curve. The change is his best pitch, but his other two are at least average. His keys are locating his pitches and keeping hitters off-balance, and he'll have to show he can do it against more advanced hitters. "
- Madison Bumgarner: "He did everything the Giants were looking for with his command and secondary pitches. He was so overpowering with his plus, plus fastball he didn't need them as much to succeed last season -- it will be a nice challenge for him to have to set up the more advanced hitters at higher classifications. "
- Conor Gillaspie: "A gap-to-gap hitter from the left side, he doesn't necessarily profile as the prototypical third baseman right now, but the Giants feel he has power potential. He definitely knows how to hit, with an advanced approach and terrific plate discipline. Defensively, he has to improve his footwork at the hot corner. "
- Roger Kieschnick: "He made his unofficial debut in Hawaii Winter Baseball and showed some of the raw power that made him an intriguing prospect. He needs to learn to adjust to breaking stuff -- he saw a good sampling of that in Hawaii, with mixed results. If he can make more contact, he could profile as the prototypical corner outfielder, with a power bat, good arm and decent speed. Right field is not so easy to play at AT&T Park, so left may ultimately make more sense for him."
- Nick Noonan: "Noonan might have the best bat speed in the Giants system. His numbers last year in August don't fully convey how well he performed and how much he developed in his first full season. The supplemental first-rounder hit .279 for the year (.333 in the playoffs), showing pretty good gap power (27 doubles, seven triples) and base-running acumen (29-for-33 in steals). The middle infielder was a shortstop in high school and could possibly still play there, but he profiles more as a second baseman. "
- Buster Posey: "He can certainly hit, both for average and at least some power. He has a great arm and is working on the other facets of his catching game, being relatively new to the position. He's been very impressive in big league camp, both in his performance and his willingness to accept instruction. His bat is advanced enough to be pushed, but he may start the year in San Jose so he can work on his game-calling skills."
- Kevin Pucetas: "In his two-plus seasons as a pro, Pucetas has gone a combined 32-7 with a 2.35 ERA. He's finished first or second in ERA in every league he's played in and has been an All-Star in his two full-season turns. Still, the 2006 17th-rounder doesn't get a ton of ink because he doesn't have overwhelming stuff. He does have a terrific knowledge of how to pitch, however, with command of four offerings. He's walked just 67 in 341 1/3 innings as a pro and has shown the ability to keep hitters off-balance and guessing. The real test will be if he can keep it going against upper-level hitters..."
- Rafael Rodriguez: "He has a long, lean and athletic body. Already very strong, he's shown the ability to hit with power to all fields. He competes extremely well with an aggressive approach at the plate, though like most young hitters will need to learn how to adjust to off-speed stuff. He can run well and has an outstanding arm from the outfield, drawing comparisons to luminaries such as Vladimir Guerrero. "
- Angel Villalona: "Sent to full-season Augusta last year at age 17, the big first baseman struggled initially, hitting .213 in April and .234 in the first half overall. But as his manager Andy Skeels put it, he got better every month and finished with a .308 August, during which he slugged .529. He made adjustments and matured very quickly throughout the season. Once a third baseman, he still takes grounders there, but his future is clearly at first base, where he played well in his first season. He has as much power as anyone in the organization and really dedicated himself to conditioning last year."
I would note that the Giants do not have depth at shortstop, Burriss is no guarantee to stick there defensively, Bocock no guarantee to ever hit well enough to earn a spot, and Crawford is a big question mark currently, so if they can play Noonan at SS in San Jose this season, I think it would be good to see if he can stick there or not. However, most observations I have seen say that he will eventually end up at 2B.
Organizational Overview
Many additional prospects were named.
Coming Soon:
- Travis Ishikawa
- Sergio Romo
- Pablo Sandoval
- Nate Schierholtz
Under the Radar:
- Waldis Joaquin
- Joey Martinez
- Jackson Williams
I think Joaquin is a good choice for sleeper to follow. He's always had a great fastball and apparently TJS hasn't taken it away. Now, however, he's probably slated for relief, to ease pressure on his arm, and probably a closer/set-up candidate within a year or two. Or even this year, he has pitched great in spring training thus far.
I didn't know that Martinez led the Eastern League in ERA. That gave us at least three leaders: Martinez, Alderson, and Bumgarner. And Bumgarner led all of the minors, doing it again for the Augusta team, which had Pucetas lead all of the minors in 2007.
2008 Draft Recap:
- Edwin Quirate
- Aaron King
- Caleb Curry
- Ryan Mantle
Predictions:
- Hitter of the Year: Buster Posey
- Pitcher of the Year: Tim Alderson
Great News: Connecticut Probably Moving to Richmond
He also reported that our AA affiliate, Connecticut Defenders, should be moving: "It's all but a done deal that the club will relocate to Richmond, Virginia. If all goes according to plan, it will be in time for the 2010 season." According to this blog coverage, a new stadium is expected there, but even if not, the city's stadium had played roughly neutral for the minor league teams which played there before, a few years ago. I am so looking forward to this happening, Norwich's Dodd Stadium's problems I've documented over the past few years, and I think this is great news for Giants prospects.
However, a caveat was brought up in the blog coverage. The new owner, a local businessperson, noted that an eventual Richmond affiliation with the Washington Nationals would "seem like a natural fit." So they could theoretically dump the Giants and affiliate (i.e. steal) with the National's AAA or AA team in the near future. The Giants are only signed up with the team to 2010, the first season in Richmond. The good news is that most of our best prospects should be playing in AA in 2010, so perhaps they can win over the town and change them to Giants fans.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Sabean Knows Youth
I keep on reading how Sabean is out of touch with building a team with young players. Obviously, I disagree but I think too many people cling to their image of the Giants when Bonds was playing here, so I feel the need to write.
Rebuilds Take Time Plus It's Been Happening
First, you can only rebuild so fast using the draft to rebuild, there is not that much obvious talent available. After the top 5-10 picks, random luck plays a huge role in whether you find anyone of value or not, unless you are good at finding and selecting prospects. I haven't seen proof anywhere that any particular team has an advantage. Thus, it behooves a team, as per my Phoenix Rebuilding Strategy, to play poorly enough to get a Top 5 pick while keeping most of the fan base in the transition. The Giants have actually been doing something like that, living off of Bonds homerun chase, but doing poorly enough to get good talent in the draft with Top 10 picks and a #5 pick this year. The luck of two Golden Spike winners falling to us helped too.
While people have been crying over the old vets he signed for the lineup, he quietly rebuilt almost the entire pitching staff over the past few years with young players who he developed from the farm system, starting with Noah Lowry. And in 2008, most of the position players were from our farm system (albeit not very good, but still numerically outnumbered the mercenaries).
Change After Bonds
Some continue to complain about signing old vets, which was the policy when Bonds was around. They lump the Rowand signing with the old vets who were signed to get Bonds one more try at the World Series. Rowand, however, was only 30 years old for 2008, so he wasn't exactly old, as 30 is considered part of a players peak years.
Thus, Sabean did not sign one old veteran the off-season after Bonds was let go, other than Yabu, when he could have gone after old fogies at 1B, 2B, and 3B, plus the bullpen and rotation (he even released Kline and his over million dollar contract).
Sabean Can Rebuild On Youth: It's Not His First Time
And he has rebuilt a team based on youth before: when he first took over the Giants. The rotation for years was filled with 20-something players, Ortiz, Estes, Livan, Rueter, then he added Schmidt who I believe was 29 when we got him. He acquired Kent and Snow via trades, kept Aurilia and Mueller both who eventually started, signed Hamilton, and of course had Bonds around. He was also the guy in charge when the Yankees got Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Riviera, among others.
And now he found Cain, Lincecum, Wilson, Lewis, Sandoval, Burriss, plus maybe Bumgarner, Alderson, Villalona, Rodriguez, Noonan, Fairley, Pucetas, Sosa, Cowart, Rohlinger, Snyder, Mike McBryde, Dan Otero, Adam Witter, Thomas Neal, Jorge Bucardo, Hector Sanchez, Julio Izturis, Ehire Adrianza, Daryl Maday, and of course, Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, plus Barnes and Quirate, Mike Loree, and maybe Aaron King, plus Jesse English, EME, and Brett Harper (if he sticks around) as a dark horses. I also like Matt Downs and would give a shout out to Hector Sanchez.
Here is our depth, based on homegrown prospects and contracts after 2009:
C: Posey, Sandoval, Adam Witter, Hector Sanchez
1B: Sandoval, Villalona, Ishikawa, Bowker, Neal, Hector Sanchez
2B: Frandsen, Velez, Noonan, Downs
3B: Sandoval, Villalona, Gillaspie, Rohlinger, Downs
SS: Burriss, Bocock, Adrianza, Izturis, Cumberland
LF: Lewis, Bowker, EME
CF: Rowand, Copeland, McBryde, Richardson, Fairley
RF: Schierholtz, Kieschnick, Rodriguez
SP: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Alderson, Snyder, Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin, plus Zito
RP: Wilson (closer), Romo, Hinshaw, Matos, Sadler, Espineli, Otero, Ryan Paul, Kelvin Marte, Brian Anderson, and any failed starter
We should be competitive in 2009 and contenders in 2010 if the players continue to develop. Plus it wouldn't hurt to sign a few more 16 year old phenoms to stock up for the mid-2010's, when the above guys either develop or drop out. Not too bad for someone who supposedly don't know how to rebuild with youth.
Rebuilds Take Time Plus It's Been Happening
First, you can only rebuild so fast using the draft to rebuild, there is not that much obvious talent available. After the top 5-10 picks, random luck plays a huge role in whether you find anyone of value or not, unless you are good at finding and selecting prospects. I haven't seen proof anywhere that any particular team has an advantage. Thus, it behooves a team, as per my Phoenix Rebuilding Strategy, to play poorly enough to get a Top 5 pick while keeping most of the fan base in the transition. The Giants have actually been doing something like that, living off of Bonds homerun chase, but doing poorly enough to get good talent in the draft with Top 10 picks and a #5 pick this year. The luck of two Golden Spike winners falling to us helped too.
While people have been crying over the old vets he signed for the lineup, he quietly rebuilt almost the entire pitching staff over the past few years with young players who he developed from the farm system, starting with Noah Lowry. And in 2008, most of the position players were from our farm system (albeit not very good, but still numerically outnumbered the mercenaries).
Change After Bonds
Some continue to complain about signing old vets, which was the policy when Bonds was around. They lump the Rowand signing with the old vets who were signed to get Bonds one more try at the World Series. Rowand, however, was only 30 years old for 2008, so he wasn't exactly old, as 30 is considered part of a players peak years.
Thus, Sabean did not sign one old veteran the off-season after Bonds was let go, other than Yabu, when he could have gone after old fogies at 1B, 2B, and 3B, plus the bullpen and rotation (he even released Kline and his over million dollar contract).
Sabean Can Rebuild On Youth: It's Not His First Time
And he has rebuilt a team based on youth before: when he first took over the Giants. The rotation for years was filled with 20-something players, Ortiz, Estes, Livan, Rueter, then he added Schmidt who I believe was 29 when we got him. He acquired Kent and Snow via trades, kept Aurilia and Mueller both who eventually started, signed Hamilton, and of course had Bonds around. He was also the guy in charge when the Yankees got Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Riviera, among others.
And now he found Cain, Lincecum, Wilson, Lewis, Sandoval, Burriss, plus maybe Bumgarner, Alderson, Villalona, Rodriguez, Noonan, Fairley, Pucetas, Sosa, Cowart, Rohlinger, Snyder, Mike McBryde, Dan Otero, Adam Witter, Thomas Neal, Jorge Bucardo, Hector Sanchez, Julio Izturis, Ehire Adrianza, Daryl Maday, and of course, Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford, plus Barnes and Quirate, Mike Loree, and maybe Aaron King, plus Jesse English, EME, and Brett Harper (if he sticks around) as a dark horses. I also like Matt Downs and would give a shout out to Hector Sanchez.
Giants Thoughts
Here is our depth, based on homegrown prospects and contracts after 2009:
C: Posey, Sandoval, Adam Witter, Hector Sanchez
1B: Sandoval, Villalona, Ishikawa, Bowker, Neal, Hector Sanchez
2B: Frandsen, Velez, Noonan, Downs
3B: Sandoval, Villalona, Gillaspie, Rohlinger, Downs
SS: Burriss, Bocock, Adrianza, Izturis, Cumberland
LF: Lewis, Bowker, EME
CF: Rowand, Copeland, McBryde, Richardson, Fairley
RF: Schierholtz, Kieschnick, Rodriguez
SP: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Alderson, Snyder, Henry Sosa, Waldis Joaquin, plus Zito
RP: Wilson (closer), Romo, Hinshaw, Matos, Sadler, Espineli, Otero, Ryan Paul, Kelvin Marte, Brian Anderson, and any failed starter
We should have plus hitters at C and wherever Villalona plays, plus above average at LF, CF, RF, whereever Sandoval plays, and potentially average at SS and 2B. That would be a decent offense, which is all we need with a rotation headed by Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito, and Bumgarner, with Alderson perhaps serving initially in relief until one of Sanchez or Zito is traded.
Only relief appears to be a potential problem area long term and Sabean said he would try to acquire someone for that. At least we appear set at closer with Wilson and perhaps setup with Romo and Hinshaw, though we probably need another 2-3 dependable relievers. Maybe Barnes, Loree, Snyder, Sosa, Joaquin, Matos, Sadler, and Espineli eventually.
It also probably wouldn't hurt to acquire someone for middle infield, as none of the 2B and SS prospects look like they will be good enough for sure. However, based on small sampling in the majors, it looks encouraging for Burriss and Frandsen (assuming he returns to normal from his injury). Noonan is the only one I would bet on for sure out of the bunch, but he's far enough down in the minors and in OPS to raise questions on whether he'll ever make it. I also like Ehire Adrianza but he is far away from making it to the majors yet.
We should be competitive in 2009 and contenders in 2010 if the players continue to develop. Plus it wouldn't hurt to sign a few more 16 year old phenoms to stock up for the mid-2010's, when the above guys either develop or drop out. Not too bad for someone who supposedly don't know how to rebuild with youth.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Prospects and Confidence
I've been talking for over two years now about how playing at Dodd Stadium could prey on the confidence of prospects who are forced to play at a home park where their SLG and ISO is reduced 30-40% by the park. Many disagreed, few (if any, don't recall any) supported me. But I ran into an industry opinion that supports my assertion.
Depodesta And the A's
As I noted before, Paul Depodesta has started up a blog called "It Might be Dangerous... You Go First" and yesterday he wrote about his thoughts and experiences regarding the decision of bringing up a prospect. Here is what a baseball industry expert and insider (and former GM) wrote about how even the most confident prospect need to get his confidence stroked:
This is basically what I've been writing about sending prospects to Dodd. The Giants apparently agree with me now, as their best prospects has been leapfrogging AA to AAA this season, in order to avoid that park. Now I've found this example.
End the horrors for our hitting prospects NOW!
Depodesta And the A's
As I noted before, Paul Depodesta has started up a blog called "It Might be Dangerous... You Go First" and yesterday he wrote about his thoughts and experiences regarding the decision of bringing up a prospect. Here is what a baseball industry expert and insider (and former GM) wrote about how even the most confident prospect need to get his confidence stroked:
There are examples at nearly every level. During spring training of 2003, Nick
Swisher was having a monster camp. After being drafted in 2002 he had finished
the season in High-A ball, and the plan all winter was to start him back there.
Due to his great spring, some people starting pushing for Nick to go to AA even
though he didn't even have a year's worth of minor league at-bats yet (I'm sure
I was one of them). I specifically remember Keith Lieppman, the Farm Director of
the A's, saying, "If he goes to AA and struggles to the point where we have to
send him back to A ball, I won't even know where to begin to pick up the
pieces." Nick Swisher was not a guy who lacked for confidence, by the way. So,
Nick started back in A ball, killed it, moved to AA, and so on.I'll never forget Keith making that stand, especially considering his experience in player development is second to none. We all want to get our players to the big leagues as quickly as possible, but we also need to be as prudent as possible (and Keith needed to remind us in that situation), because when the players get there we
want to succeed. Not survive. Succeed.
This is basically what I've been writing about sending prospects to Dodd. The Giants apparently agree with me now, as their best prospects has been leapfrogging AA to AAA this season, in order to avoid that park. Now I've found this example.
End the horrors for our hitting prospects NOW!
Friday, October 05, 2007
2007 Giants Minors Review: Giants see big gains from top names
The minor league's website had a nice article detailing a number of the top players in the Giants farm system this past season. I will make comments on the items the author covered.
Organization Players of the Year
The author (as they noted, they were not selected by the team) selected John Bowker and Sergio Romo. While I can understand perhaps why the author picked the two, and the two did have nice years, particularly nice for Bowker since his prospect status was "none chance" to steal from Duane Kuiper's vocabulary, I think their selection shows that the author is not a Giants fan, nor a particularly thorough researcher.
Even from my standpoint, where I haven't gone through all the minor league teams yet and check to see who did the best, from my readings on the Giants prospects, I think you have to select Nate Schierholtz and Henry Sosa.
Nate had probably one of the best performances of the year and at AAA, continuing his ascent to the majors, where he did well too, well enough in my opinion, that trading away Randy Winn to open up RF for Nate would be the best thing because 1) Randy should net us a good prospect or two, due to his average but OK hitting, good defense at all three OF positions (particularly useful if you have a bunch of old players out there with a history of injury problems), and OK contract, now that a similar player in Gary Mathews Jr. got that mega-contract long-term, it would be like the Matt Morris contract, it is now cheap enough and short enough to be valuable to a team, and 2) we have so many OF prospects who have exhibited enough at the major league level, including Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis, and Dan Ortmeier (though he hopefully will play 1B mostly), that we can rotate in Schierholtz, Davis, Lewis, Ortmeier into the CF and RF spots, depending on who is doing well at the time, but with Davis in CF and Schierholtz starting in RF, to start the season. While Bowker had a very good season and lifted his name into consideration for the mashup we have in the OF in the 2009 timeframe, perhaps even late 2008 if he kills at AAA, I think you have to give Schierholtz credit for figuring out AAA and then doing well in the majors.
Bowker, though, is a close second, so perhaps I'm being picky, but really, you have to give it to the guy who did well in AAA and then the majors. Unless you have someone who has a lot more potential and move up a lot. Angel Villalona did well in rookie ball and was younger than everyone there, so he's probably up there too, and I would have given it to him if he could have hit well in A-ball somewhere. Nick Noonan also deserve consideration and I would give honorable mention to Culberson and D'Alessio.
Henry Sosa totally dominated A-ball, then stumbled moving up to Advanced A, so Romo had success at a higher level. However, Sosa was doing it as a starter whereas Romo is a reliever. Though we need relievers more than starters, there needs to be more credit given for doing it as a starter, and particularly as dominating as Sosa was in Augusta, plus he got promoted. Not really sure who would be next, Brian Wilson probably since he did it as a closer, then Misch perhaps because of his success at AAA then majors.
Prospect Ratings
The article then delved into prospects who rose, stayed the same, and lastly fell. Nothing much to add there. I know people think I love Ishikawa or something, but given the Giants lack of position prospects, I just really don't want to waste one if he's really OK. And really, he hit well in San Jose, just as well as he did in 2005, so his skills were never gone, just wasting away in that hell-hole called Dodd Stadium. Kudos to Bowker for doing well there, but even he was greatly affected, which means he really busted out after a stagnant, regressive season in 2006:
Dodd: .271/.330/.422/.752, 6 HR in 251 AB (42 AB/HR or about 15 HR seasonal rate)
Road: .345/.397/.689/1.027, 16 HR in 267 AB (17 AB/HR or about 35 HR seasonal rate)
Still, given that AAA is another rung up, I have to say that Schierholtz is still "da man." He hit .332/.364/.559/.922, 16 HR in 410 AB (26 AB/HR or about 25 HR seasonal rate) during the season. But, more importantly, he figured things out later - as he has done for most of his career - as he had this great batting line in July and August in Fresno: .321/.360/.611/.970, 12 HR in 190 AB (16 AB/HR or about 35 HR seasonal rate). That's basically as good as Bowker did on the road in AA, except that Schierholtz did it one level higher.
There were two players who I think deserve mention from this section though. Ben Synder is a LHP out of Augusta this season, and he had a 2.09 ERA and struck out 145 in 151 IP, which is 8.6 K/9, which is pretty good. Eugenio Velez, who normally had played 2B but played a lot in the OF this season, hit well at Connecticut (which while bad for power hitters, doesn't affect non-power hitters as much), with a .298 BA and 49 steals.
On The Radar
This is a pretty good section, covering players to keep an eye out for in the next year or two. The players listed are:
2007 Draftees
Unfortunately, Bumgarner and Fairley signed too late to start their professional career. However, Alderson did OK with five shutout innings in Arizona Rookie League, only 4 hits and no walks, plus 12 strikeouts! There were other notables:
Organization Players of the Year
The author (as they noted, they were not selected by the team) selected John Bowker and Sergio Romo. While I can understand perhaps why the author picked the two, and the two did have nice years, particularly nice for Bowker since his prospect status was "none chance" to steal from Duane Kuiper's vocabulary, I think their selection shows that the author is not a Giants fan, nor a particularly thorough researcher.
Even from my standpoint, where I haven't gone through all the minor league teams yet and check to see who did the best, from my readings on the Giants prospects, I think you have to select Nate Schierholtz and Henry Sosa.
Nate had probably one of the best performances of the year and at AAA, continuing his ascent to the majors, where he did well too, well enough in my opinion, that trading away Randy Winn to open up RF for Nate would be the best thing because 1) Randy should net us a good prospect or two, due to his average but OK hitting, good defense at all three OF positions (particularly useful if you have a bunch of old players out there with a history of injury problems), and OK contract, now that a similar player in Gary Mathews Jr. got that mega-contract long-term, it would be like the Matt Morris contract, it is now cheap enough and short enough to be valuable to a team, and 2) we have so many OF prospects who have exhibited enough at the major league level, including Fred Lewis, Rajai Davis, and Dan Ortmeier (though he hopefully will play 1B mostly), that we can rotate in Schierholtz, Davis, Lewis, Ortmeier into the CF and RF spots, depending on who is doing well at the time, but with Davis in CF and Schierholtz starting in RF, to start the season. While Bowker had a very good season and lifted his name into consideration for the mashup we have in the OF in the 2009 timeframe, perhaps even late 2008 if he kills at AAA, I think you have to give Schierholtz credit for figuring out AAA and then doing well in the majors.
Bowker, though, is a close second, so perhaps I'm being picky, but really, you have to give it to the guy who did well in AAA and then the majors. Unless you have someone who has a lot more potential and move up a lot. Angel Villalona did well in rookie ball and was younger than everyone there, so he's probably up there too, and I would have given it to him if he could have hit well in A-ball somewhere. Nick Noonan also deserve consideration and I would give honorable mention to Culberson and D'Alessio.
Henry Sosa totally dominated A-ball, then stumbled moving up to Advanced A, so Romo had success at a higher level. However, Sosa was doing it as a starter whereas Romo is a reliever. Though we need relievers more than starters, there needs to be more credit given for doing it as a starter, and particularly as dominating as Sosa was in Augusta, plus he got promoted. Not really sure who would be next, Brian Wilson probably since he did it as a closer, then Misch perhaps because of his success at AAA then majors.
Prospect Ratings
The article then delved into prospects who rose, stayed the same, and lastly fell. Nothing much to add there. I know people think I love Ishikawa or something, but given the Giants lack of position prospects, I just really don't want to waste one if he's really OK. And really, he hit well in San Jose, just as well as he did in 2005, so his skills were never gone, just wasting away in that hell-hole called Dodd Stadium. Kudos to Bowker for doing well there, but even he was greatly affected, which means he really busted out after a stagnant, regressive season in 2006:
Dodd: .271/.330/.422/.752, 6 HR in 251 AB (42 AB/HR or about 15 HR seasonal rate)
Road: .345/.397/.689/1.027, 16 HR in 267 AB (17 AB/HR or about 35 HR seasonal rate)
Still, given that AAA is another rung up, I have to say that Schierholtz is still "da man." He hit .332/.364/.559/.922, 16 HR in 410 AB (26 AB/HR or about 25 HR seasonal rate) during the season. But, more importantly, he figured things out later - as he has done for most of his career - as he had this great batting line in July and August in Fresno: .321/.360/.611/.970, 12 HR in 190 AB (16 AB/HR or about 35 HR seasonal rate). That's basically as good as Bowker did on the road in AA, except that Schierholtz did it one level higher.
There were two players who I think deserve mention from this section though. Ben Synder is a LHP out of Augusta this season, and he had a 2.09 ERA and struck out 145 in 151 IP, which is 8.6 K/9, which is pretty good. Eugenio Velez, who normally had played 2B but played a lot in the OF this season, hit well at Connecticut (which while bad for power hitters, doesn't affect non-power hitters as much), with a .298 BA and 49 steals.
On The Radar
This is a pretty good section, covering players to keep an eye out for in the next year or two. The players listed are:
- Adam Cowart: Despite reports that his skills will not do well at higher levels, he followed up a 1.08 ERA with 8 walks and 55 strikeouts in 83.1 IP in 2006 at Salem-Keizer, with 2.39 ERA with 28 walks and 95 strikeouts in 169.2 IP in 2007 at Augusta. He's now 24-8 as a professional.
- Sergio Romo: He did very well in San Jose, with a 1.36 ERA as the closer in 2007 (he started and relieved in 2006). In 66.1 IP, he gave up only 35 hits and 15 walks, while striking out 106, for a stellar 14.4 K/9! His WHIP was also stellar, at only 0.75.
- Kevin Pucetas: It's going to be hard for Pucetas to top 2007, when he receieved the Most Spectacular Pitcher Award for having the lowest qualifying ERA in the minors this season with 1.86 ERA at Augusta. In 145.1 IP, he gave up 129 hits and 21 walks, while striking out 104, 1.03 WHIP.
- Henry Sosa: This was his first full season and he totally dominated A-ball with Augusta, going 6-0 with a 0.73 ERA before earning a promotion to San Jose. He didn't do great there, but he has a high-90's fastball, so he'll probably do much better next year when he'll still be only 23 years old.
2007 Draftees
Unfortunately, Bumgarner and Fairley signed too late to start their professional career. However, Alderson did OK with five shutout innings in Arizona Rookie League, only 4 hits and no walks, plus 12 strikeouts! There were other notables:
- Daniel Otero: He was Salem-Keizer's closer and the most amazing thing is he had zero walks in 22.1 IP.
- Nick Noonan: Hit .316 with 3 homers and 18 steals in the Arizona Rookie League as an 18 year old, not too shabby.
- Jackson Williams: Didn't hit well (though small sampling) but he hit with power, amassing 5 homers in only 126 AB (25 AB/HR or about 25 homeruns in a full season). However, he didn't have that great a batting line. The good news is that his contract rate was 79%, which is OK (ideally want over 85%) and his BB/K was 62%, which is OK. Those suggest some hitting ability and give some hope that his BABIP of .263 will rise if given a full season to play.
- Charlie Culberson: Hit .286 with 19 steals in the Arizona Rookie League as an 18 year old too.
- Andrew D'Alessio: Hit .306 with 14 (!) homers in the Arizona Rookie League, but he was much older than the competition there. I have hopes but they are tempered by his being much older. 2008 will give a clearer indication of his abilities.
- Craig Clark: 2.98 ERA starting for the champion Salem-Keizer Volcanoes.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Ortiz Up, Sanchez Down
It has been reported that Sanchez was optioned to AAA to make space for Ortiz. Bochy noted that Sanchez's future is as a starter but that he will remain a reliever this season, most likely. Too bad, I was hoping they would just let him start down there and get ready for next season.
It was noted that Sanchez needs to work on his breaking pitches, both his breaking ball and changeup, because he lost command of them and needs to improve his location, but that he still has a good fastball. They will put him in a regimen similar to the one they are using with Pat Misch - who I would rather see up here in relief than Sanchez - where Sanchez will pitch two or more innings in relief every two or three days to give Sanchez a chance to gain consistency. It would also allow him to work on refining certain pitches or mechanics, which he couldn't do with the Giants since he couldn't tire himself out in case the Giants needed him in the game later that day.
Bochy thinks it's the best thing for "Sanchie" and that once he returns, he probably won't see the minors again. But he must gain command of his off-speed pitches in order to earn that promotion. For the season, he had an ERA of 5.52 in 14 appearances with 13 walks and 21 strikeouts in 14.2 IP, a stellar 12.9 K/9 rate that ranked third among NL relievers but horrible command, around 1.6 K/BB, when good relievers should be at least 2.4 and good starters, 2.0. Either way, Bochy thinks he's going to add a lot of value whether from the pen or starting.
Giants Thoughts
Again, I wish they would just start him and give Misch a try up here. Or at least give Misch a try up here while Sanchez works on his consistency - if Misch does well up here, then move Sanchez into the AAA rotation, if not, then they can go back to this plan and bring him back up when he is ready.
Of course, if we let Sanchez start, he won't have a spot in the rotation next year, what with Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Morris. So he'll be looking at breaking into the 2009 rotation, probably with Morris's option not being picked up, otherwise if it is picked up that would mean 2010 and his prospect status will dim. So perhaps this could be why they are looking at him mainly as a reliever right now, because they don't have a spot for him right now in the near future.
I would rather let him start in AAA and do as well as he can. If he can do very well in AAA and make himself one of the top pitching prospects, he would be a very valuable trading chip, whereas a reliever, even at the major league level, would not be as valuable, in my opinion, even one striking guys out at a 12.9 K/9 rate.
Or he could make someone who is in the rotation now, expendable in a trade and net us even more perhaps. However, I view Cain and Lincecum as untouchables, and Zito isn't going anywhere as long as Magowan controls things, so that leaves Morris and Lowry. If both can continue pitching like they have been this season, they will be very valuable indeed.
It was noted that Sanchez needs to work on his breaking pitches, both his breaking ball and changeup, because he lost command of them and needs to improve his location, but that he still has a good fastball. They will put him in a regimen similar to the one they are using with Pat Misch - who I would rather see up here in relief than Sanchez - where Sanchez will pitch two or more innings in relief every two or three days to give Sanchez a chance to gain consistency. It would also allow him to work on refining certain pitches or mechanics, which he couldn't do with the Giants since he couldn't tire himself out in case the Giants needed him in the game later that day.
Bochy thinks it's the best thing for "Sanchie" and that once he returns, he probably won't see the minors again. But he must gain command of his off-speed pitches in order to earn that promotion. For the season, he had an ERA of 5.52 in 14 appearances with 13 walks and 21 strikeouts in 14.2 IP, a stellar 12.9 K/9 rate that ranked third among NL relievers but horrible command, around 1.6 K/BB, when good relievers should be at least 2.4 and good starters, 2.0. Either way, Bochy thinks he's going to add a lot of value whether from the pen or starting.
Giants Thoughts
Again, I wish they would just start him and give Misch a try up here. Or at least give Misch a try up here while Sanchez works on his consistency - if Misch does well up here, then move Sanchez into the AAA rotation, if not, then they can go back to this plan and bring him back up when he is ready.
Of course, if we let Sanchez start, he won't have a spot in the rotation next year, what with Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Morris. So he'll be looking at breaking into the 2009 rotation, probably with Morris's option not being picked up, otherwise if it is picked up that would mean 2010 and his prospect status will dim. So perhaps this could be why they are looking at him mainly as a reliever right now, because they don't have a spot for him right now in the near future.
I would rather let him start in AAA and do as well as he can. If he can do very well in AAA and make himself one of the top pitching prospects, he would be a very valuable trading chip, whereas a reliever, even at the major league level, would not be as valuable, in my opinion, even one striking guys out at a 12.9 K/9 rate.
Or he could make someone who is in the rotation now, expendable in a trade and net us even more perhaps. However, I view Cain and Lincecum as untouchables, and Zito isn't going anywhere as long as Magowan controls things, so that leaves Morris and Lowry. If both can continue pitching like they have been this season, they will be very valuable indeed.
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