El Lefty Malo is AWESOME! Read his post on what he thought the Giants need to do.
And the Giants appeared to listen to him, though not to the letter (sub Tejada for Cabrera) by DFAing Rowand and Tejada. Arguably, this is a bigger message sent since Tejada is paid a lot more than Cabrera. But I think his open pouting and discussion of such regarding the bunt helped Giants management push the button easier on that one.
Rowand's lack of production made his release an easy one, $14M or not, as Baggarly reported that he was openly campaigning for getting out of SF, a circumstance that probably made the decision for Giants management that much more obvious as well. He has reached the true point of "sunk costs": at least last season he was a viable talent off the bench, producing some value as a player, and for the first half of this season, but for a number of months now he has been even worse than replacement value.
They were clearly "addition by subtraction" type of moves. That's nearly $20M wrote off, so Zito could be gone sometime next season as well if he's not producing or even if he's not in the starting rotation, since the Giants could go with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sanchez, Vogelsong in the rotation.
Sabean says that he will try to trade both of them today so that they can hook on with a playoff contending team; Rowand is hoping to rejoin the Phillies, but I don't see the Giants doing that one, I don't think that they want to see him haunting them in any way. I also don't see any team wanting to even give up a low level prospect for either of them, much cleaner to wait for the end of the 10-day period and sign them then. Nobody will be crying that they didn't pick these players up in time to make the playoff roster, as defiant as Tejada's statement was the other day about contributing to somebody's playoff efforts. But if Renteria can get a job somewhere, I'm sure Tejada will as well.
Meanwhile, the Giants activated Pat Burrell and purchased the contract of Brett Pill, rewarding his great season so far in AAA, plus his willingness to play a number of different positions. As much as I would hope that Pill mashes, the history of players his age who hit well but not that great in AAA is not encouraging, they normally don't come up here and do much of anything. But I wish him all the success he can get, and who knows, he could be the exception to prove the rule. I certainly would not have thought that Crawford could keep his strikeout rate so low in the majors, or his walk rate so high, so there's always that.
I assume part of this move was to enable Burrell to be available for the playoffs should we be able to fight our way in. And at this point, you roll the dice and see what you got with Pill, there is really no one else high in the system worth that shot.
Baggarly also noted that there is still an open 40-man spot with this move. That opens up the possibility of bringing up another player, such as Bill Hall or Marc Kroon. Sentimentally, I would go with Kroon, but objectively, Hall is probably the more logical move because he can play multiple positions and has been hitting OK in the minors, though not great, at least if he were still a major league caliber hitter. If he were, he should have been killing the ball. Still, he's been a major leaguer, and it wasn't that long ago that he was hitting OK (last season), so you might want to take a chance on that. But at this point, I would go with Kroon, would make great story, might juice the clubhouse by his inspirational story, which Hall would not provide.
Nice offense today, just what this team needs, 4 runs, that is all we ask for, daily, and our pitching can win with that. Appears that the shock of the move got some of the hitters moving, though really, Jeff Keppinger and Mark DeRosa has been hitting lately, and of course, Pablo Sandoval has usually been hitting. Fontenot had a nice game too, as did Chris Stewart, whom I've liked since he came up to the majors for us.
However, neither Carlos Beltran or Cody Ross did much of anything to help, though perhaps Ross is now afraid that Burrell will take his ABs away. Sigh: he should realize that it is his poor hitting that is taking away his ABs, not the OF situation, Bochy would start him a lot if he were hitting as well as he was for most of this season, and not the sad numbers he has put up since Beltran was traded for. Beltran has been hot for the most part lately, but have been coming up small when we needed him, like in yesterday's game, he could have tied the game with a base-hit and got us back in the game with a timely hit.
And, of course, Madison Bumgarner gave us a great game. Hopefully it is a start for the rotation, seems like a statement game by him: try and top this, ladies.
Showing posts with label Pat Burrell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pat Burrell. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Monday, February 14, 2011
2011 Big 6 Questions for Spring Training
In honor of Big 6 Christy Mathewson, I usually go over six questions facing the Giants at various points in the off-season. Today, I'm tackling spring training.
Question 1: Pablo or Panda?!?
Many people are saying the Giants are standing pat, going stagnant, but they are wrong. The Giants are betting on several players returning to their prior production, one of whom, in a big way, one of them being Pablo Sandoval.
Will he be the Pablo of 2010 or the Panda of 2009? Of course, nobody knows, but I think Panda will be back. I've gone over his personal problems before, so I won't go there again, but the thing I should have emphasized more before is that he's a classic bad ball hitter in the mode of Vlad Guerrero, Manny Sanguillen, and others like them, who instinctively can swing and connect with the ball. So his problems at the plate in 2010 was more mental and not physical. Most people without a knowledge of the history of the game just don't understand that, and those who do have a knowledge are ignoring it.
If he can harness that with Barry Bonds' tutelege, that would be great, but really, people should just be happy that he can do what he has shown he can do. People are going in the opposite way of the pendulum today, towards the sabermetric side, and just put him down for not taking walks. It don't matter he can't walk when you can hit like he showed he can in 2008, 2009, and April 2010. Hitting is ALWAYS more valuable than walking when he supplies the power that he does.
Of course, it would be great if he could take more walks, but WAIT, he actually wasn't that bad at it, the league average was 9.0% for BB% in 2009, and he had 8.2%, and the league average was 8.5% in 2010, and he had 7.6%, both within spitting distance of the league average. It is not like he was like Bengie Molina or Juan Pierre or anything like that. And his strikeout ratio was about the same as it was in 2009. And once he started hitting for homers in June, for the rest of the 2009 season, his BB% was 9.7%. I wouldn't be surprised if he beats the league average in 2011.
The main issue in 2010 was actually his BABIP. It was at or above .350 in his two prior seasons, was only .291 in 2010. As I noted, April 2010, he was basically the hitter he was before, and looking at the BABIP, it was, roughly, as his BABIP was .382. After that, he couldn't really get it over .300, for the most part.
Now, if it was because, as people posit, his poor plate discipline catching up with him or, as others say, his contact lens and vision problems, then why didn't his strikeouts skyrocket? It didn't, overall it was essentially the same as it was in 2009 (13.1% in 2009, 13.2% in 2010, an increase of roughly 0.25 strikeouts on a ratio basis, in other words, basically the same). For those theories to work, he should be striking out at a higher rate at minimum, and really, if these were correct, he should be striking out loads more, particularly for those who cite poor hitting approach: 13% strikeout rate is among the best in the majors, and he did that with his "poor plate discipline" or even his poor vision. If either or both were true, his strikeouts should have gone up a lot based on their theory.
In case it is not obvious, this is my opinion, you can call it psuedo-psychology if you wish, but I counter that is more poor analysis on the part of others. I'm happy to wait for the season to start and we'll see who is right and who is the psudo.
Question 2: Will Brandon Belt Belt?
One of the real no-brainer question of the spring. Some think he's a sure thing, but judging by how poorly he did in AAA (albeit small samples), he will probably need some time in AAA to prove himself after a 2010 season where he proved himself all through the minors plus the AFL, giving the lie to the Sabean Naysayers who say the Giants mishandle position prospects. The problem, as I've said before, is that the Giants position prospects haven't been that good.
But he could still break out and make the team with a great spring, and by that, it won't just be hitting well, many players have done great in spring only to fizzle in the regular season, Bowker being the latest example, Randy Elliott being a well known example to Giants fans of a certain age, but rather he will have to show the coaches that he knows what he is doing rather than just being lucky, as I think the Giants will err on the conservative with him.
So I can see the Giants sending him down while he's raking and the Sabean Naysayers will have a knipshin.
Whether or not the Giants are doing this because of control of the prospects, which is an understandable on the part of fans, people also need to remember that management needs to think long-term, we should want our team to get basically an extra year of control over the player. Let's put it this way, aren't you glad we got an extra year of enjoying Lincecum, Posey, and Bumgarner?
And to those who said it might have cost us in 2010, all I can say is: how did it cost us, the Giants are the World Champs.
Question 3: Who Will the Outfield Starters be?
To most, it would not seem to be that big a surprise: Burrell in LF, Torres in CF, Ross in RF. But this is a corrolary to Question 2, because the outfielders are not only competing with each other, they are competing with Brandon Belt, who if he makes the team, pushes Huff to the OF, leaving one less OF spot and then the musical chairs started.
However, Huff is now a year older on the wrong side of 30 and now has one bad season followed by one great season (albeit two great seasons out of the last three), and history is full of players who have one last great season, signs a contract, and is eatting dust the rest of the way (Robby Thompson is one Giants example).
Even if Belt does not make the team out of spring training, almost all the potential starters have question marks that need to be answered. First off, Torres is alwo a year older on the wrong side of 30 and haven't put together a full season of superior performance, though it is not totally his fault, he just figured out hitting before the 2009 season, and any team would make him prove himself (he did strike out an inordinate amount of time in 2009, which is not something you want to see out of your lead-off hitter). El Lefty Malo has made the point numerous times on his blog that his health is something we need to watch out for, given his age and body type (sprinter type something have lingering hamstring problems). I'm hopeful that his perseverance to improve as a hitter indicates the way he thinks, and he'll do all he can to avoid physical problems, unlike, say, Ray Durham or Aaron Rowand.
Ross is coming off a sub-par season, and it wasn't like he was consistently good previously, he only had two good full seasons previously. However, he was with a sinking team with a lousy owner. Once he was given the chance to start for the Giants in September, he hit like he did in 2008 and 2009, plus, of course, had his great playoff series. Still, he turns 30 and that is an age milestone warning sign, maybe he just got hot for a month, just at the right time for the Giants.
Burrell is also on the wrong side of 30 and the eldest among the probable starters (though just barely ahead of Huff). He's also a statue in the OF, though an above-average statue, as his defensive stats, per Baseball-Reference.com, says that he added a win with his defense, and according to the same stats, he was actually average in LF with Philly, contracting his image as a poor fielding and suggesting that perhaps defensive stats are still in need of tweaking, giving all the poor commentary on his fielding over the years. Either that or most LF are just that bad, that is where teams put their poor fielders just because of their bat, because, after all, these measures typically compare the player with other players playing the same position that season. Still, despite his great season for the Giants in 2010, most remember his poor 2009 and early 2010 with Tampa Bay and the scuttlebutt during the off-season was that Burrell wasn't going to be a starter. After seeing a guy hit like that in 2010, I find that hard to believe, but it is true that players his age is stumbling down their decline years, so we will see.
Then there is Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, and Mark DeRosa, the potential bench players. Rowand, as gamer as he was made out to be, got to be hurting psychologically. He probably won't get better until he leaves the Giants, but if he is as mentally tough as he was made out to be, Rowand, when he's going good, is actually a pretty good player: unfortunately, he can't sustain that good streak for very long before getting injured in a Giants uni, and his season is toast. Schierholtz is similar in that he would be world-beating for 2-4 weeks and look like the second coming, then he would hurt something and come back too soon, making his stats look bad overall. If either can stay healthy, Ross could have a hard time keeping his spot in the starting lineup and Burrell too.
DeRosa has been an excellent (+1 win) defensive player at four different positions (2B, 3B, LF, RF) and come up as a SS, so I think he probably would be passable in CF and 1B as well, and could start a game or three at SS - I would rather have him in there than Fontenot, just saying - so he's probably not making the starting OF, he's going to be rotating around those four positions and, if his batting stroke is back, probably get into 100-120 games with maybe 15-30 starts at each position, get some DH duty, plus a lot of defensive replacement duty, and be the first guy to start if anything happens to Sanchez at 2B or Sandoval at 3B. He's not going to get to start in the OF unless his surgery improves his hitting against RHP, which is the thing that has held him back offensively, though he's still OK against RHP, just not good.
So really, this is just another application of last year's risk mitgration practices that the Giants have been doing in recent years, where we can cobble together a performing starting lineup out of the people who are left standing after others have fallen, either physically or in performance.
Question 4: Playoff Starting Pitchers' Fatigue?
This is another obvious area for people to focus on, due to the large number of extra innings pitched by the starters, particularly for Lincecum and Bumgarner, and Sanchez because he basically hit the wall during the playoffs and wasn't that good in his last three starts. The Chronicle listed the grim stats as a part of their excellent series of daily articles about the Giants leading up to Spring Training (I wish they would provide one page to access all of the whole series):
I'm not that worried. Krukow's standard is jumping 25 more IP than the season before. Lincecum was under that and Cain was only 2 IP above that. FYI, they made much larger jumps in their first major league season and no bad effects showed up in the season afterward. Both of them should be as good in 2011, particularly Lincecum, who had some learning pains in 2010 plus learned a new pitch that now gives him an out pitch against any hitter. I would not be surprised by a sub-2.00 ERA season and approaching 300 strikeouts in the season.
Bumgarner, as I noted previously on another post, threw a whole lot more pitches between starts when he was in the minors. At roughly 20 IP over the 25 limit (and remember 2008 was an even larger jump for him from 2007 because of his turning pro) and assuming 15 pitches per IP (should be on high side for him), that is 300 extra pitches. With 24 starts in Augusta that season, all he had to do was roughly 15 extra pitches in-between starts to make up that difference, and remember, he was amazed that MLB starting pitchers threw so little in between starts and had said publicly that he would scale back his throwing because he suspected it was the cause of his poor velocity in late 2009. Plus, he was effortlessly throwing mid-90's in the World Series game and he felt fine when he started pitching again in January, he was not fatigued at all.
Sanchez is the biggest worry, but even then, I am cautiously optimistic. He has made an greater leap in IP before, when he became a starter in the majors in 2008. That did not affect him in future seasons, his ERA has dropped sharply two years in a row. He had deadarm in 2008, when he hit the wall he was pitching very well for a good dominant stretch and had an ERA just under 4.00 at that time, but he was great down the stretch in late 2009. He also has Scott Boras as his agent, and as much as I hate his tactics from a team perspective, he certainly seems to have it going for his clients and has a physical fitness center somewhere in Arizona that helps his clients train and be fit. He has a big investment in keeping Sanchez's performance at a high level in his last two season left with the Giants and will certainly make sure Sanchez gets the best medical advice on how to survive this jump in IP.
While the starters must and will be monitored by the Giants, I am not worried for the most part. Should one starter go down for a while, while Suppan or Runzler will not be an ideal long-term solution as the #5 starter, the Giants survived 2009 OK with very poor pitching from the #5 spot for much of the season, until Penny joined, and we now have a much better offensive team than we did back then. The key is surviving to the end is keeping four of our starters healthy and performing, not all five, a luxury we can do now that we have a better offensive lineup to trot out there.
Question 5: Who Will Win the Last Spot in the Pitching Staff?
The pitching staff is pretty much set, much to the joy of all Giants fans: Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner as the starting pitchers, Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Ramirez, Casilla in the bullpen. That's 11 and the Giants normally carry 12 pitchers. Suppan, Runzler, and a bunch of players signed to minor league contracts will vie for that spot.
I'll bet that Runzler will end up in AAA Fresno to start recrafting himself as a starting pitcher. I believe that part of this exercise is to give Runzler more IP to work out his control problems, he just walks too many batters right now to be no more than a good reliever, but he would have closer ability with his strikeout rate if he could ever get that walk rate under 4.0, elite closer at under 3.0. And at just about the right time too, if he develops, as Wilson will be almost into his free agent years around that time.
I think Suppan will win that last spot, only Mota is the only real contender for that spot right now. If, that is, there is a spot.
Technically, there is no need for a long-reliever early in the season. Heck, technically no need for a 5th starter, but if IP is a concern with the pitching staff, you would help things by easing up on Bumgarner while piling on the other starters. So that spot could go to a position player, making this a trick question, a position player could win that last spot instead of Suppan.
Another reason this is the probably way to go is that there are so many potential OFs that the bench is full. Assuming that Belt does not make it as a starter to start the season and that the starters work out the way most of us think, that leaves Whiteside as the backup catcher, Ishikawa as the backup 1B, Fontenot as the backup middle infielder, Rowand and Schierholtz as backup OF, and DeRosa as backup corner positions. That is six bench players when there is only a five player bench when you carry 13 position players.
Given that Ishikawa is the most likely player to go once Belt makes the majors, I expect the Giants to showcase Ishikawa during spring training and work out some sort of trade. I've been thinking Seattle might want to give him a try since he grew up nearby and they could use a great defensive player since they rely on pitching with King Felix around. But any team that is re-building and looking for a starting 1B might be willing to give up some prospect that they have given up on but that the Giants like in exchange for Ishikawa.
I've liked Ishikawa for a while and think that he would be OK playing 1B offensively while shining defensively. He would be like a Rob Deer type, low-batting average, higher OBP because he can take some walks, higher SLG because he can hit the long-ball, but with the bonus that he is among the best fielders at 1B when starting regularly. I think he can stick around for a long while like Deer did in the AL.
Unfortunately for him, he did not seize the ring when given the chance in early 2009 and Huff returned to his regular hitting ways instead of duplicating his poor 2009 season. However, he'll have a nice memento for the rest of his life, knowing he contributed significantly to the team as a backup and as a non-grousing member of the bench, something Kevin Frandsen could have been doing for the Giants in 2010 had he didn't feel the need to mouth off to the press.
The only way he stays longer-term is if the Giants were somehow able to trade away Aaron Rowand during spring training. I think they will showcase him and let him hit and if another team is convinced enough by that performance that he is healthy and ready to contribute, like the Phillies or White Sox, two former employers who believe in him, the Giants might be willing to pay $6-8M of his $12M salary per season to get rid of him. If the other team wants any more than that, then he's basically being paid like a bench player by the Giants, so why not keep him around in case we need him for some awful reason?
Spring training should expose who will win this final spot on the roster, as many will be fighting to stay with the Giants via that spot.
Question 6: Will the World's Champ Crown Still Fit?
Sometimes when a player does great in his first season, he gets a swelled head and think very highly of himself, too highly. When you have a team like the Giants, winning it all in their first shot at it in the playoffs, it could lead to some over confidence on the part of some of the players, and the Giants the way they are built need virtually all their players to perform to their expectations in order for them to make the playoffs, which should be the goal of any team for the season, because the playoffs is such a crapshoot in terms of winning it all, in any case.
So far, all the players are saying the right sports platitudes about not letting it get to their head, keeping it real, and helping to remind their fellow players of that fact. But it is one thing to say it to the media, another to do that in the field and around your teammates. Huff and Burrell together, plus Cain and Wilson on the pitching side, look ready to prick the balloon of anyone who dares to be complacent. They have a chip on their shoulders because many people, including Giants fans (but not this one) are saying that the Giants in 2010 was a fluke.
Spring training should expose those who slacked off in any way, and with so many movable parts, the Giants could easily bench or even trade those players who are not sticking to the program.
Question 1: Pablo or Panda?!?
Many people are saying the Giants are standing pat, going stagnant, but they are wrong. The Giants are betting on several players returning to their prior production, one of whom, in a big way, one of them being Pablo Sandoval.
Will he be the Pablo of 2010 or the Panda of 2009? Of course, nobody knows, but I think Panda will be back. I've gone over his personal problems before, so I won't go there again, but the thing I should have emphasized more before is that he's a classic bad ball hitter in the mode of Vlad Guerrero, Manny Sanguillen, and others like them, who instinctively can swing and connect with the ball. So his problems at the plate in 2010 was more mental and not physical. Most people without a knowledge of the history of the game just don't understand that, and those who do have a knowledge are ignoring it.
If he can harness that with Barry Bonds' tutelege, that would be great, but really, people should just be happy that he can do what he has shown he can do. People are going in the opposite way of the pendulum today, towards the sabermetric side, and just put him down for not taking walks. It don't matter he can't walk when you can hit like he showed he can in 2008, 2009, and April 2010. Hitting is ALWAYS more valuable than walking when he supplies the power that he does.
Of course, it would be great if he could take more walks, but WAIT, he actually wasn't that bad at it, the league average was 9.0% for BB% in 2009, and he had 8.2%, and the league average was 8.5% in 2010, and he had 7.6%, both within spitting distance of the league average. It is not like he was like Bengie Molina or Juan Pierre or anything like that. And his strikeout ratio was about the same as it was in 2009. And once he started hitting for homers in June, for the rest of the 2009 season, his BB% was 9.7%. I wouldn't be surprised if he beats the league average in 2011.
The main issue in 2010 was actually his BABIP. It was at or above .350 in his two prior seasons, was only .291 in 2010. As I noted, April 2010, he was basically the hitter he was before, and looking at the BABIP, it was, roughly, as his BABIP was .382. After that, he couldn't really get it over .300, for the most part.
Now, if it was because, as people posit, his poor plate discipline catching up with him or, as others say, his contact lens and vision problems, then why didn't his strikeouts skyrocket? It didn't, overall it was essentially the same as it was in 2009 (13.1% in 2009, 13.2% in 2010, an increase of roughly 0.25 strikeouts on a ratio basis, in other words, basically the same). For those theories to work, he should be striking out at a higher rate at minimum, and really, if these were correct, he should be striking out loads more, particularly for those who cite poor hitting approach: 13% strikeout rate is among the best in the majors, and he did that with his "poor plate discipline" or even his poor vision. If either or both were true, his strikeouts should have gone up a lot based on their theory.
In case it is not obvious, this is my opinion, you can call it psuedo-psychology if you wish, but I counter that is more poor analysis on the part of others. I'm happy to wait for the season to start and we'll see who is right and who is the psudo.
Question 2: Will Brandon Belt Belt?
One of the real no-brainer question of the spring. Some think he's a sure thing, but judging by how poorly he did in AAA (albeit small samples), he will probably need some time in AAA to prove himself after a 2010 season where he proved himself all through the minors plus the AFL, giving the lie to the Sabean Naysayers who say the Giants mishandle position prospects. The problem, as I've said before, is that the Giants position prospects haven't been that good.
But he could still break out and make the team with a great spring, and by that, it won't just be hitting well, many players have done great in spring only to fizzle in the regular season, Bowker being the latest example, Randy Elliott being a well known example to Giants fans of a certain age, but rather he will have to show the coaches that he knows what he is doing rather than just being lucky, as I think the Giants will err on the conservative with him.
So I can see the Giants sending him down while he's raking and the Sabean Naysayers will have a knipshin.
Whether or not the Giants are doing this because of control of the prospects, which is an understandable on the part of fans, people also need to remember that management needs to think long-term, we should want our team to get basically an extra year of control over the player. Let's put it this way, aren't you glad we got an extra year of enjoying Lincecum, Posey, and Bumgarner?
And to those who said it might have cost us in 2010, all I can say is: how did it cost us, the Giants are the World Champs.
Question 3: Who Will the Outfield Starters be?
To most, it would not seem to be that big a surprise: Burrell in LF, Torres in CF, Ross in RF. But this is a corrolary to Question 2, because the outfielders are not only competing with each other, they are competing with Brandon Belt, who if he makes the team, pushes Huff to the OF, leaving one less OF spot and then the musical chairs started.
However, Huff is now a year older on the wrong side of 30 and now has one bad season followed by one great season (albeit two great seasons out of the last three), and history is full of players who have one last great season, signs a contract, and is eatting dust the rest of the way (Robby Thompson is one Giants example).
Even if Belt does not make the team out of spring training, almost all the potential starters have question marks that need to be answered. First off, Torres is alwo a year older on the wrong side of 30 and haven't put together a full season of superior performance, though it is not totally his fault, he just figured out hitting before the 2009 season, and any team would make him prove himself (he did strike out an inordinate amount of time in 2009, which is not something you want to see out of your lead-off hitter). El Lefty Malo has made the point numerous times on his blog that his health is something we need to watch out for, given his age and body type (sprinter type something have lingering hamstring problems). I'm hopeful that his perseverance to improve as a hitter indicates the way he thinks, and he'll do all he can to avoid physical problems, unlike, say, Ray Durham or Aaron Rowand.
Ross is coming off a sub-par season, and it wasn't like he was consistently good previously, he only had two good full seasons previously. However, he was with a sinking team with a lousy owner. Once he was given the chance to start for the Giants in September, he hit like he did in 2008 and 2009, plus, of course, had his great playoff series. Still, he turns 30 and that is an age milestone warning sign, maybe he just got hot for a month, just at the right time for the Giants.
Burrell is also on the wrong side of 30 and the eldest among the probable starters (though just barely ahead of Huff). He's also a statue in the OF, though an above-average statue, as his defensive stats, per Baseball-Reference.com, says that he added a win with his defense, and according to the same stats, he was actually average in LF with Philly, contracting his image as a poor fielding and suggesting that perhaps defensive stats are still in need of tweaking, giving all the poor commentary on his fielding over the years. Either that or most LF are just that bad, that is where teams put their poor fielders just because of their bat, because, after all, these measures typically compare the player with other players playing the same position that season. Still, despite his great season for the Giants in 2010, most remember his poor 2009 and early 2010 with Tampa Bay and the scuttlebutt during the off-season was that Burrell wasn't going to be a starter. After seeing a guy hit like that in 2010, I find that hard to believe, but it is true that players his age is stumbling down their decline years, so we will see.
Then there is Aaron Rowand, Nate Schierholtz, and Mark DeRosa, the potential bench players. Rowand, as gamer as he was made out to be, got to be hurting psychologically. He probably won't get better until he leaves the Giants, but if he is as mentally tough as he was made out to be, Rowand, when he's going good, is actually a pretty good player: unfortunately, he can't sustain that good streak for very long before getting injured in a Giants uni, and his season is toast. Schierholtz is similar in that he would be world-beating for 2-4 weeks and look like the second coming, then he would hurt something and come back too soon, making his stats look bad overall. If either can stay healthy, Ross could have a hard time keeping his spot in the starting lineup and Burrell too.
DeRosa has been an excellent (+1 win) defensive player at four different positions (2B, 3B, LF, RF) and come up as a SS, so I think he probably would be passable in CF and 1B as well, and could start a game or three at SS - I would rather have him in there than Fontenot, just saying - so he's probably not making the starting OF, he's going to be rotating around those four positions and, if his batting stroke is back, probably get into 100-120 games with maybe 15-30 starts at each position, get some DH duty, plus a lot of defensive replacement duty, and be the first guy to start if anything happens to Sanchez at 2B or Sandoval at 3B. He's not going to get to start in the OF unless his surgery improves his hitting against RHP, which is the thing that has held him back offensively, though he's still OK against RHP, just not good.
So really, this is just another application of last year's risk mitgration practices that the Giants have been doing in recent years, where we can cobble together a performing starting lineup out of the people who are left standing after others have fallen, either physically or in performance.
Question 4: Playoff Starting Pitchers' Fatigue?
This is another obvious area for people to focus on, due to the large number of extra innings pitched by the starters, particularly for Lincecum and Bumgarner, and Sanchez because he basically hit the wall during the playoffs and wasn't that good in his last three starts. The Chronicle listed the grim stats as a part of their excellent series of daily articles about the Giants leading up to Spring Training (I wish they would provide one page to access all of the whole series):
- Lincecum: pitched 21.3 more innings than he ever did
- Cain: pitched more innings before the playoffs started, a total of 27 more innings than his high before.
- Sanchez: pitched more innings before the playoffs started, a total of 43.3 more innings than his high before (and as noted, it showed).
- Bumgarner: pitched 44.3 more innings than what he says he did in 2008 between Class A Augusta, their playoffs, and Arizona instructional league
I'm not that worried. Krukow's standard is jumping 25 more IP than the season before. Lincecum was under that and Cain was only 2 IP above that. FYI, they made much larger jumps in their first major league season and no bad effects showed up in the season afterward. Both of them should be as good in 2011, particularly Lincecum, who had some learning pains in 2010 plus learned a new pitch that now gives him an out pitch against any hitter. I would not be surprised by a sub-2.00 ERA season and approaching 300 strikeouts in the season.
Bumgarner, as I noted previously on another post, threw a whole lot more pitches between starts when he was in the minors. At roughly 20 IP over the 25 limit (and remember 2008 was an even larger jump for him from 2007 because of his turning pro) and assuming 15 pitches per IP (should be on high side for him), that is 300 extra pitches. With 24 starts in Augusta that season, all he had to do was roughly 15 extra pitches in-between starts to make up that difference, and remember, he was amazed that MLB starting pitchers threw so little in between starts and had said publicly that he would scale back his throwing because he suspected it was the cause of his poor velocity in late 2009. Plus, he was effortlessly throwing mid-90's in the World Series game and he felt fine when he started pitching again in January, he was not fatigued at all.
Sanchez is the biggest worry, but even then, I am cautiously optimistic. He has made an greater leap in IP before, when he became a starter in the majors in 2008. That did not affect him in future seasons, his ERA has dropped sharply two years in a row. He had deadarm in 2008, when he hit the wall he was pitching very well for a good dominant stretch and had an ERA just under 4.00 at that time, but he was great down the stretch in late 2009. He also has Scott Boras as his agent, and as much as I hate his tactics from a team perspective, he certainly seems to have it going for his clients and has a physical fitness center somewhere in Arizona that helps his clients train and be fit. He has a big investment in keeping Sanchez's performance at a high level in his last two season left with the Giants and will certainly make sure Sanchez gets the best medical advice on how to survive this jump in IP.
While the starters must and will be monitored by the Giants, I am not worried for the most part. Should one starter go down for a while, while Suppan or Runzler will not be an ideal long-term solution as the #5 starter, the Giants survived 2009 OK with very poor pitching from the #5 spot for much of the season, until Penny joined, and we now have a much better offensive team than we did back then. The key is surviving to the end is keeping four of our starters healthy and performing, not all five, a luxury we can do now that we have a better offensive lineup to trot out there.
Question 5: Who Will Win the Last Spot in the Pitching Staff?
The pitching staff is pretty much set, much to the joy of all Giants fans: Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner as the starting pitchers, Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Ramirez, Casilla in the bullpen. That's 11 and the Giants normally carry 12 pitchers. Suppan, Runzler, and a bunch of players signed to minor league contracts will vie for that spot.
I'll bet that Runzler will end up in AAA Fresno to start recrafting himself as a starting pitcher. I believe that part of this exercise is to give Runzler more IP to work out his control problems, he just walks too many batters right now to be no more than a good reliever, but he would have closer ability with his strikeout rate if he could ever get that walk rate under 4.0, elite closer at under 3.0. And at just about the right time too, if he develops, as Wilson will be almost into his free agent years around that time.
I think Suppan will win that last spot, only Mota is the only real contender for that spot right now. If, that is, there is a spot.
Technically, there is no need for a long-reliever early in the season. Heck, technically no need for a 5th starter, but if IP is a concern with the pitching staff, you would help things by easing up on Bumgarner while piling on the other starters. So that spot could go to a position player, making this a trick question, a position player could win that last spot instead of Suppan.
Another reason this is the probably way to go is that there are so many potential OFs that the bench is full. Assuming that Belt does not make it as a starter to start the season and that the starters work out the way most of us think, that leaves Whiteside as the backup catcher, Ishikawa as the backup 1B, Fontenot as the backup middle infielder, Rowand and Schierholtz as backup OF, and DeRosa as backup corner positions. That is six bench players when there is only a five player bench when you carry 13 position players.
Given that Ishikawa is the most likely player to go once Belt makes the majors, I expect the Giants to showcase Ishikawa during spring training and work out some sort of trade. I've been thinking Seattle might want to give him a try since he grew up nearby and they could use a great defensive player since they rely on pitching with King Felix around. But any team that is re-building and looking for a starting 1B might be willing to give up some prospect that they have given up on but that the Giants like in exchange for Ishikawa.
I've liked Ishikawa for a while and think that he would be OK playing 1B offensively while shining defensively. He would be like a Rob Deer type, low-batting average, higher OBP because he can take some walks, higher SLG because he can hit the long-ball, but with the bonus that he is among the best fielders at 1B when starting regularly. I think he can stick around for a long while like Deer did in the AL.
Unfortunately for him, he did not seize the ring when given the chance in early 2009 and Huff returned to his regular hitting ways instead of duplicating his poor 2009 season. However, he'll have a nice memento for the rest of his life, knowing he contributed significantly to the team as a backup and as a non-grousing member of the bench, something Kevin Frandsen could have been doing for the Giants in 2010 had he didn't feel the need to mouth off to the press.
The only way he stays longer-term is if the Giants were somehow able to trade away Aaron Rowand during spring training. I think they will showcase him and let him hit and if another team is convinced enough by that performance that he is healthy and ready to contribute, like the Phillies or White Sox, two former employers who believe in him, the Giants might be willing to pay $6-8M of his $12M salary per season to get rid of him. If the other team wants any more than that, then he's basically being paid like a bench player by the Giants, so why not keep him around in case we need him for some awful reason?
Spring training should expose who will win this final spot on the roster, as many will be fighting to stay with the Giants via that spot.
Question 6: Will the World's Champ Crown Still Fit?
Sometimes when a player does great in his first season, he gets a swelled head and think very highly of himself, too highly. When you have a team like the Giants, winning it all in their first shot at it in the playoffs, it could lead to some over confidence on the part of some of the players, and the Giants the way they are built need virtually all their players to perform to their expectations in order for them to make the playoffs, which should be the goal of any team for the season, because the playoffs is such a crapshoot in terms of winning it all, in any case.
So far, all the players are saying the right sports platitudes about not letting it get to their head, keeping it real, and helping to remind their fellow players of that fact. But it is one thing to say it to the media, another to do that in the field and around your teammates. Huff and Burrell together, plus Cain and Wilson on the pitching side, look ready to prick the balloon of anyone who dares to be complacent. They have a chip on their shoulders because many people, including Giants fans (but not this one) are saying that the Giants in 2010 was a fluke.
Spring training should expose those who slacked off in any way, and with so many movable parts, the Giants could easily bench or even trade those players who are not sticking to the program.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Burrell Back for 2011
As reported (Baggarly and Schulman) Pat Burrell returned to the Giants today by signing a contract with them. The amount was not immediately known, but I would guess that it is probably in the $2-3M range, as it was made clear that he was returning in a reduced bench role.
Mychal Urban tweeted that there were significant incentives. Basically, this allows the Giants to sign Burrell to a relatively cheap contract, but should he end up playing significant time on the field, he'll be justly rewarded for being a significant contributor. I wonder if such a contract with Uribe would have saved the relationship and mitigate the hard feelings that Uribe apparently harbored against Giants management when he ditched the Giants.
Giants Thoughts
Glad that I could believe his words! He said he wanted to come back late in the season as a bench player, and now it has come to pass. His role will be like in 2010: he'll get some regular ABs off the bench, and if any of the regulars are struggling or injured, he's our ace in the hole to start and hopefully bring up production.
Meanwhile, he and his buddy Aubrey Huff can enjoy another season together on the same team, as they dreamed about long ago when they were in college together (or perhaps it was after both made the majors), but in any case, it was a shared wish on the part of both to spend some time together on the same team before they retire. And how better now that they won a World Series championship together on Burrell's childhood team that hadn't won in, like, forever, and Huff had a great time?
Looks like the 25-man roster is relatively complete now. The question is whether they will keep all their arb players or not, with Chris Ray and Mike Fontenot the two possible non-tenders, as speculated by the local reporters. Ray was put on the bubble because he was not on the playoff roster, but I think that was more because he was out on the DL for a while, and the bullpen was pretty set and functioning well in September. I think they will keep him.
Fontenot, however, I would bet on being gone because the Giants need a MI utility guy who can play SS competently should anything happen to Tejada. Burriss is probably up for that job and Sabean likes his vets (now maybe people can appreciate the vets more) and will probably get one to compete with Burriss. They will probably keep an eye out on the non-tenders of the other teams as well. They did contact his agent, so perhaps they were kicking the tires to see if he would be willing to accept a certain amount, which they would be willing to carry, knowing they might have to drop it at some point.
Mychal Urban tweeted that there were significant incentives. Basically, this allows the Giants to sign Burrell to a relatively cheap contract, but should he end up playing significant time on the field, he'll be justly rewarded for being a significant contributor. I wonder if such a contract with Uribe would have saved the relationship and mitigate the hard feelings that Uribe apparently harbored against Giants management when he ditched the Giants.
Giants Thoughts
Glad that I could believe his words! He said he wanted to come back late in the season as a bench player, and now it has come to pass. His role will be like in 2010: he'll get some regular ABs off the bench, and if any of the regulars are struggling or injured, he's our ace in the hole to start and hopefully bring up production.
Meanwhile, he and his buddy Aubrey Huff can enjoy another season together on the same team, as they dreamed about long ago when they were in college together (or perhaps it was after both made the majors), but in any case, it was a shared wish on the part of both to spend some time together on the same team before they retire. And how better now that they won a World Series championship together on Burrell's childhood team that hadn't won in, like, forever, and Huff had a great time?
Looks like the 25-man roster is relatively complete now. The question is whether they will keep all their arb players or not, with Chris Ray and Mike Fontenot the two possible non-tenders, as speculated by the local reporters. Ray was put on the bubble because he was not on the playoff roster, but I think that was more because he was out on the DL for a while, and the bullpen was pretty set and functioning well in September. I think they will keep him.
Fontenot, however, I would bet on being gone because the Giants need a MI utility guy who can play SS competently should anything happen to Tejada. Burriss is probably up for that job and Sabean likes his vets (now maybe people can appreciate the vets more) and will probably get one to compete with Burriss. They will probably keep an eye out on the non-tenders of the other teams as well. They did contact his agent, so perhaps they were kicking the tires to see if he would be willing to accept a certain amount, which they would be willing to carry, knowing they might have to drop it at some point.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Your 2011 Giants: Huff Re-signs for 2 years, $22M, plus option
Well, it looks like Huff's children are covered now. :^)
I got this one totally wrong. Or at least, it was more than I thought the Giants had to pay and more than I would have paid given that we had Brandon Belt in the wings. But according to reports (Baggarly), the Giants matched an offer made by another team (that perhaps knew that the Giants had to match and thus made an offer that they figured the Giants would match).
What Huff got (Baggarly, Schulman, Haft) is a reported 2 years for $22M with a club option for a third year. He gets $10M per year plus $2M buyout, or the team would pick up another $10M contract for third year.
I have seen Brian Murphy of KNBR's morning team tweet that it basically replaces Renteria's contract. I proffered that if you include last year's $3M for him (a great bargain to be sure), it translates to a $23M contract for 3 years with a fourth year team option with $2M buyout, which is approximately what the Giants were going to pay Adam LaRoche (they offered 3 years at $21M) but that he turned down, thinking that they were going to negotiate further. Sidenote: I wonder if LaRoche would have accepted had he known that it was a take it or leave it deal? Given that he signed soon with Arizona for much less money, it suggested that he had no other real interest on the part of other teams but thought he (or at least his agent thought) could play the Giants for more money, but got burned in the end.
Sabean also noted in the press conference that the Giants might not be able to keep all their arbitration eligible players now because the Giants spent so much money on Huff. He noted the need to shuffle around money to be able to afford Huff (which is what he did in 2003 when he signed Michael Tucker to a contract early in order to lose a draft pick and not have to pay $1.5M in bonus). He also noted that Uribe is seeing a lot of interest because he is being viewed as a viable option at 3B as well as SS. Perhaps relatedly, he mentioned that he had spoken with the agent for a free agent SS. Sabean also affirmed that Cody Ross will be kept and will be starting in 2011.
Giants Thoughts
To be clear, I am not comfortable with deals with mid-30's players for many years or a lot of money, particularly ones coming off a bad season, but I can see why the Giants might do that with the players they have signed and can see how they might rationalize that. So don't kill the messenger.
That's why I thought the Giants deal for Huff was great last off-season, it was low cost, low risk, high reward and boy did he pay off big time.
This new contract was a fair contract, in line with what players of his performance level is getting, given the economic climate and all that. I really thought that he wouldn't get an offer this high given his age, his 2009 season, and his eccentric behavior and personality. And there is some risk given these factors.
However, if he can perform closer to his 2008 and 2010 seasons and not close to his 2009 season, this contract is fair for both sides. And I think that there is good odds that he can do this again, despite his age, and why 2010 was not as fluky as it might appear.
First, 2010 was the first season that Huff acknowledged Father Time and got into a fitness program to get into shape for the coming season. He apparently took it very seriously and got himself into great shape, according to a former coach who was interviewed about Huff in the pre-season. Hopefully this pays future dividends by convincing Rowand to step up from the lame mountain bike fitness program he got into last off-season and do something more serious.
Second, as I noted in a post about Huff last off-season, it was 2009 that was the fluky season, not 2008. His batting ratios (K%, K/BB, BB%) were all within the boundaries of his career norms but it was his BABIP that was horribly bad. In fact, his season with Baltimore, while bad for his career, wasn't horribly out of line for an off year, it was when he went to Detroit, where the park penalizes LH hitters a bit while Baltimore's Camden helps LH hitters. In addition, by then, he was very unhappy with the team, said some nasty burn the bridge comments about the town/fans on the radio, which probably scared some teams off of him, causing him to fall to the Giants, and that probably contributed to his down season. He should be still pretty happy in 2011 vs. 2009.
Third, his batting line for 2010 are not that out of line with his career either. He has had OPS in this range 4 times before, albeit 3 times was in his mid-20's when he was in much better shape. Still, he had a similarly good season in 2008, so two of his three last seasons have been very good (.912 and .891 OPS) and one was very bad (.694 OPS). He has had ISO's this large 4 times before as well. BABIP of .303 in 2010 vs. .293 for his career.
His Ratio Batting was in line with his career as well. HR% of 3.9% vs. 3.8% for his career. XBH% was right near his career average (9.9% vs. 9.5%). Good K% of 13.6% as usual (13.2% career). He did have his best year ever in BB% with 12.4% (10.0% prior high) so that was up there and probably drop. LD% of 20% vs. 19% career. HR/FB of 11.5% vs. career 10.2%, and he has been over 10.5% five times before.
So I'm OK with the deal, I think for marketing purposes, they had to sign him, as well as baseball reasons, as there were really no better alternatives for replacing his 2010's numbers other than getting him, because the alternatives would have costed just as much or more, and he has intangibles that the team saw in 2010 and values. I can live with the big contract, more than with other signings, as he is actually coming off a good year and getting a fair contract (though slightly overpriced rather than discounted as I had hoped).
What Happens Next
Now, I wonder how this move dominoes. First off, re-signing Uribe is probably unlikely right now. He would need to sign a similar contract to before in order for the Giants to sign him and he's not going to do that or get that type of offers. He should be getting numbers similar to Sanchez and DeRosa's 2 years for $12M. I think the Giants will offer him arbitration and pick up a draft pick that way should he sign away, and if not, they get him for one year at probably a fair salary for just 2011. But I don't see how he would accept arbitration, there should be better long-term offers on the table.
Second, this allows the Giants to give Belt more time to spend in the minors and hone his skills, something they were unable to do with Pablo in 2008-9 (not that he needed that, but perhaps he could have gotten on a better fitness plan in the meanwhile). He could then do the Posey plan and come up mid-season, which would then push Huff to LF.
Thirdly, speaking of the outfield, the Giants are not really that set out there. Torres appears to be a lock but he'll be 33 next season. He's only one year younger than Huff! So age could start to creep in, though I recall reading that players with his body type and skills tend to last longer and older. Ross is slated to be the starter, but he's in similar straits as Huff was, he had fine seasons previously, but had a down year in 2010, much like Huff did in 2009. Ross will be 30 in 2011. Perhaps the Marlins losing got to him, but maybe it was time for his body to fail him. So there is some question marks on him too.
The other potential starters are iffy too. DeRosa was the starting LF at the start of 2010 but at this point, I think the Giants are hoping he can be the emergency starter at a number of positions, much like Uribe was in 2008 and 2009. He can play 2B and 3B, as well as LF and RF, at high defensive value, probably could do it at 1B, and started out as a SS as a pro, so he could take a game or three there to rest the starter. Schierholtz has had chances, and probably will be given a chance again in 2011, but I just don't see it happening, as much as I've been rooting for him to. And Rowand I've written off as a bench player unless as I noted above, he takes his fitness seriously and earn CF back to start 2011 (with Ross in LF and Torres in RF).
Should there be too many performance failures in the OF in 2011, I can see the Giants moving Huff to LF and bringing up Belt at the first moment he appears ready to come up. I think if 2010 was 2008, Belt would have been brought up much like Sandoval and Ishikawa was in 2008, and would have had a strong shot at winning the starting spot the next season, like them too. I think he still has a shot, but he's going to have to prove that he belongs, rather than look pretty good, to win the 1B starting job.
Fourth, since Uribe is probably gone now for monetary reasons, the Giants are probably kicking the tires with free agent shortstops who are very good defensively but bad offensively in order to get a cheap starter for 2011. Players like Adam Everett or Cesar Izturis (his brother is in the Giants minors). They might also look into players they have been rumored to like, such as JJ Hardy (rumors is that he'll be non-tendered) and Jack Wilson (best bud with Franchez, but would have to be traded by Mariners). Baggarly also mentioned that players such as Jose Reyes of Mets and Rollins of Phillies might be traded away, though I cannot imagine getting either without giving up a good prospect like Belt or Wheeler.
Lastly, I think that this means that Burrell will eventually sign with the Giants. Sabean noted that he would talk with Burrell after he settles some other business first. That means that he hasn't been ruled out despite Huff signing and the current log-jam of OFs. I think them being such good buddies, I don't see how Burrell would make it hard for the Giants to sign him as he would like to play with Huff once more.
And he's already made it easy. Despite starting most of the 2010 season for the Giants, he already said late in the season that he's willing to come back to the Giants in 2011 as a bench player. That means he is saying he is willing to sign for low money just to play for the team, the Giants just need to ask. And right now, the Giants could use low-cost players who could pay off big, like Huff and Burrell did in 2010. Given the uncertainty in the OF, having Burrell around as backup, much like in 2010, he could step in should there be an injury or lack of performance, and it would be low risk since he won't be signing for much, if he is really a bench player.
Overall, as a fan, I'm happy about the move. I am not happy about the price but accept it as a price of keeping him around and improving our chances of repeating in 2011. Hopefully he can repeat similar hitting in 2011 and 2012. If he can, the Giants have a great chance of making it into the playoffs again, then see where our pitching leads us next time.
I got this one totally wrong. Or at least, it was more than I thought the Giants had to pay and more than I would have paid given that we had Brandon Belt in the wings. But according to reports (Baggarly), the Giants matched an offer made by another team (that perhaps knew that the Giants had to match and thus made an offer that they figured the Giants would match).
What Huff got (Baggarly, Schulman, Haft) is a reported 2 years for $22M with a club option for a third year. He gets $10M per year plus $2M buyout, or the team would pick up another $10M contract for third year.
I have seen Brian Murphy of KNBR's morning team tweet that it basically replaces Renteria's contract. I proffered that if you include last year's $3M for him (a great bargain to be sure), it translates to a $23M contract for 3 years with a fourth year team option with $2M buyout, which is approximately what the Giants were going to pay Adam LaRoche (they offered 3 years at $21M) but that he turned down, thinking that they were going to negotiate further. Sidenote: I wonder if LaRoche would have accepted had he known that it was a take it or leave it deal? Given that he signed soon with Arizona for much less money, it suggested that he had no other real interest on the part of other teams but thought he (or at least his agent thought) could play the Giants for more money, but got burned in the end.
Sabean also noted in the press conference that the Giants might not be able to keep all their arbitration eligible players now because the Giants spent so much money on Huff. He noted the need to shuffle around money to be able to afford Huff (which is what he did in 2003 when he signed Michael Tucker to a contract early in order to lose a draft pick and not have to pay $1.5M in bonus). He also noted that Uribe is seeing a lot of interest because he is being viewed as a viable option at 3B as well as SS. Perhaps relatedly, he mentioned that he had spoken with the agent for a free agent SS. Sabean also affirmed that Cody Ross will be kept and will be starting in 2011.
Giants Thoughts
To be clear, I am not comfortable with deals with mid-30's players for many years or a lot of money, particularly ones coming off a bad season, but I can see why the Giants might do that with the players they have signed and can see how they might rationalize that. So don't kill the messenger.
That's why I thought the Giants deal for Huff was great last off-season, it was low cost, low risk, high reward and boy did he pay off big time.
This new contract was a fair contract, in line with what players of his performance level is getting, given the economic climate and all that. I really thought that he wouldn't get an offer this high given his age, his 2009 season, and his eccentric behavior and personality. And there is some risk given these factors.
However, if he can perform closer to his 2008 and 2010 seasons and not close to his 2009 season, this contract is fair for both sides. And I think that there is good odds that he can do this again, despite his age, and why 2010 was not as fluky as it might appear.
First, 2010 was the first season that Huff acknowledged Father Time and got into a fitness program to get into shape for the coming season. He apparently took it very seriously and got himself into great shape, according to a former coach who was interviewed about Huff in the pre-season. Hopefully this pays future dividends by convincing Rowand to step up from the lame mountain bike fitness program he got into last off-season and do something more serious.
Second, as I noted in a post about Huff last off-season, it was 2009 that was the fluky season, not 2008. His batting ratios (K%, K/BB, BB%) were all within the boundaries of his career norms but it was his BABIP that was horribly bad. In fact, his season with Baltimore, while bad for his career, wasn't horribly out of line for an off year, it was when he went to Detroit, where the park penalizes LH hitters a bit while Baltimore's Camden helps LH hitters. In addition, by then, he was very unhappy with the team, said some nasty burn the bridge comments about the town/fans on the radio, which probably scared some teams off of him, causing him to fall to the Giants, and that probably contributed to his down season. He should be still pretty happy in 2011 vs. 2009.
Third, his batting line for 2010 are not that out of line with his career either. He has had OPS in this range 4 times before, albeit 3 times was in his mid-20's when he was in much better shape. Still, he had a similarly good season in 2008, so two of his three last seasons have been very good (.912 and .891 OPS) and one was very bad (.694 OPS). He has had ISO's this large 4 times before as well. BABIP of .303 in 2010 vs. .293 for his career.
His Ratio Batting was in line with his career as well. HR% of 3.9% vs. 3.8% for his career. XBH% was right near his career average (9.9% vs. 9.5%). Good K% of 13.6% as usual (13.2% career). He did have his best year ever in BB% with 12.4% (10.0% prior high) so that was up there and probably drop. LD% of 20% vs. 19% career. HR/FB of 11.5% vs. career 10.2%, and he has been over 10.5% five times before.
So I'm OK with the deal, I think for marketing purposes, they had to sign him, as well as baseball reasons, as there were really no better alternatives for replacing his 2010's numbers other than getting him, because the alternatives would have costed just as much or more, and he has intangibles that the team saw in 2010 and values. I can live with the big contract, more than with other signings, as he is actually coming off a good year and getting a fair contract (though slightly overpriced rather than discounted as I had hoped).
What Happens Next
Now, I wonder how this move dominoes. First off, re-signing Uribe is probably unlikely right now. He would need to sign a similar contract to before in order for the Giants to sign him and he's not going to do that or get that type of offers. He should be getting numbers similar to Sanchez and DeRosa's 2 years for $12M. I think the Giants will offer him arbitration and pick up a draft pick that way should he sign away, and if not, they get him for one year at probably a fair salary for just 2011. But I don't see how he would accept arbitration, there should be better long-term offers on the table.
Second, this allows the Giants to give Belt more time to spend in the minors and hone his skills, something they were unable to do with Pablo in 2008-9 (not that he needed that, but perhaps he could have gotten on a better fitness plan in the meanwhile). He could then do the Posey plan and come up mid-season, which would then push Huff to LF.
Thirdly, speaking of the outfield, the Giants are not really that set out there. Torres appears to be a lock but he'll be 33 next season. He's only one year younger than Huff! So age could start to creep in, though I recall reading that players with his body type and skills tend to last longer and older. Ross is slated to be the starter, but he's in similar straits as Huff was, he had fine seasons previously, but had a down year in 2010, much like Huff did in 2009. Ross will be 30 in 2011. Perhaps the Marlins losing got to him, but maybe it was time for his body to fail him. So there is some question marks on him too.
The other potential starters are iffy too. DeRosa was the starting LF at the start of 2010 but at this point, I think the Giants are hoping he can be the emergency starter at a number of positions, much like Uribe was in 2008 and 2009. He can play 2B and 3B, as well as LF and RF, at high defensive value, probably could do it at 1B, and started out as a SS as a pro, so he could take a game or three there to rest the starter. Schierholtz has had chances, and probably will be given a chance again in 2011, but I just don't see it happening, as much as I've been rooting for him to. And Rowand I've written off as a bench player unless as I noted above, he takes his fitness seriously and earn CF back to start 2011 (with Ross in LF and Torres in RF).
Should there be too many performance failures in the OF in 2011, I can see the Giants moving Huff to LF and bringing up Belt at the first moment he appears ready to come up. I think if 2010 was 2008, Belt would have been brought up much like Sandoval and Ishikawa was in 2008, and would have had a strong shot at winning the starting spot the next season, like them too. I think he still has a shot, but he's going to have to prove that he belongs, rather than look pretty good, to win the 1B starting job.
Fourth, since Uribe is probably gone now for monetary reasons, the Giants are probably kicking the tires with free agent shortstops who are very good defensively but bad offensively in order to get a cheap starter for 2011. Players like Adam Everett or Cesar Izturis (his brother is in the Giants minors). They might also look into players they have been rumored to like, such as JJ Hardy (rumors is that he'll be non-tendered) and Jack Wilson (best bud with Franchez, but would have to be traded by Mariners). Baggarly also mentioned that players such as Jose Reyes of Mets and Rollins of Phillies might be traded away, though I cannot imagine getting either without giving up a good prospect like Belt or Wheeler.
Lastly, I think that this means that Burrell will eventually sign with the Giants. Sabean noted that he would talk with Burrell after he settles some other business first. That means that he hasn't been ruled out despite Huff signing and the current log-jam of OFs. I think them being such good buddies, I don't see how Burrell would make it hard for the Giants to sign him as he would like to play with Huff once more.
And he's already made it easy. Despite starting most of the 2010 season for the Giants, he already said late in the season that he's willing to come back to the Giants in 2011 as a bench player. That means he is saying he is willing to sign for low money just to play for the team, the Giants just need to ask. And right now, the Giants could use low-cost players who could pay off big, like Huff and Burrell did in 2010. Given the uncertainty in the OF, having Burrell around as backup, much like in 2010, he could step in should there be an injury or lack of performance, and it would be low risk since he won't be signing for much, if he is really a bench player.
Overall, as a fan, I'm happy about the move. I am not happy about the price but accept it as a price of keeping him around and improving our chances of repeating in 2011. Hopefully he can repeat similar hitting in 2011 and 2012. If he can, the Giants have a great chance of making it into the playoffs again, then see where our pitching leads us next time.
Friday, November 05, 2010
Sabean-Bochy Post-Season Press Conference
CSN was kind enough to broadcast it on their website today. I caught most of it (Thank you CSN!). Baggarly has a nice rundown of the main points at his blog.
He also mentioned what was announced the other day, that Dan Runzler will be converted to starting pitcher for 2011. As El Lefty Malo has been noting at his website for a while, the Giants don't have any pitcher ready to take over if the worse case scenario happens and we lose one of our great starters. Runzler could be one of the top ones to be promoted if he can successfully convert to starting. I think another reason they are doing this is because he hasn't been able to stop walking guys, and sometimes teams would move the guy into starting to give him more practice in game conditions to improve on that.
The Machine Unmasked and Exposed
I'll end with a big scoop that Brian Sabean gave on-air: the Machine that Brian Wilson refers to (in various on-line videos of an interview to a leather fetish wearing man walking in the background) is the Giants left-fielder. That presumably means Pat Burrell, because it certainly wasn't Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, or Cody Ross (though I suppose Aubrey Huff could have that body type) and he was the starting left-fielder when the season ended. I'm not going to link to the video, but it is all over, on Twitter, on YouTube, probably other places too.
- Wow, tough love indeed, threatening Pablo with the minors if he don't get into shape. They also noted that he could be on the bench since he can handle 3B, 1B, and C. I still think that he'll be the starting 3B in 2011, but then again, Jerome Williams never figured out how to keep his weight off and never had success in the majors again. Lost in all this is that Pablo in the second half of 2010 hit better than the average 3B, so his hitting is still there in some ways. And as I've been noting everyone, personal travails (divorce, child custody, mother near-death) coincide with all his slumps in the 2010 season. I believe he can still hit like he did in 2009, if he can avoid the huge personal problems that would make anybody's work performance be less than usual. And he would not be the first person to eat a lot while depressed or hurting. Still, it would be better for him to get his eatting habits in check, and I think that he will. Lots of fat guys in baseball history have hit well and played defense well enough to play, the question is his longevity in the game, I think.
- Clearly Sabean couldn't commit to signing Huff, who knows if someone goes crazy and offer him a boatload of cash. But I don't see anyone doing that. I think the Thong thing will just turn off some GMs. Others will see his 2009 season and wonder if 2010 was an aberration (though they might also see 2008 and wonder if 2009 is the aberration). But if Baltimore was only willing to offer him 2 years at $16M three years ago, and in the current economic malaise we are in, I don't really see any team offering him more than 2 years at $6-7M per. And that is something the Giants can match or get close enough (I think the Giants offer him 2 years at $12M like DeRosa and Sanchez) that Huff will sign for us. We just have to wait the process out.
- Uribe is a bigger question to me. While his OPS wasn't that great in 2010, he did hit a lot of homers while providing flexibility backup at three positions. I don't really see the Giants wanting to go more than $6M for one season, particularly with Emmanuel Burris, Brandon Crawford, and Charlie Culberson potentially ready by 2012. There could be teams willing to finally sign him for a multi-year contract for more money to be their starting SS.
- Renteria, not really covered here but in a prior blog post, might be a possible signing. It sounds like he's willing to come back and be a backup player, and the Giants will explore that, Sabean said, because the free agent crop is not that great. And who knows, maybe he's finally healthy and can play a full season if they don't find anyone else. He could be the Huff signing for 2011.
- The Giants are discussing Burrell, but Burrell in an interview late in the season said that he would be willing to come back to the Giants in 2011 and be a bench player. Of course, that was his role when he joined the Giants in 2010 and he eventually became the starter.
- Potential bench given these possibilities: Whiteside, Ishikawa, DeRosa, Renteria, Burrell, Schierholtz. That assumes, then, that Rowand is starting in CF with Ross in LF and Torres in RF (probably, given Torres speed). However, that would mean holding 14 position players on the team during the season. The Giants could consider that since all the starters could go deep in games, resulting in less use of the bullpen and thus less need for another arm.
- It was noted that should the Giants look for free agents, left-handers would be a priority (Carl Crawford was alluded to by a reporter). Right now, only lefty starters are Huff (assuming he signs), Sandoval (assuming he wins war with weight and bat), and Torres. Looks like Ishikawa and Schierholtz are not being considered for a starting position. Baggarly also noted that therefore Jason Werth would not be pursued.
- Sabean noted something which he is known for "in a perfect world, I'd make changes that would allow for a more athletic lineup." But he don't expect to find any.
- While not committing to offering arbitration to all eight arbitration eligible players, they are interested in bringing all of them back: J. Sanchez (maybe long-term contract finally?), Torres, Ramirez, Casilla, Ross, Lopez, Fontenot (he's probably not back if Renteria is back), and Ray. Given this preference, the Giants forecast that their budget will be over $100M for the first time, and that does not include what they might pay to sign Huff and/or Uribe.
- Sounds like the Giants will have most of their pitching back for 2011, mostly because they are already signed or are pre-arb: Lincecum, Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner (probable order, Bochy likes R/L/R/L), Wilson, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Ramirez, Casilla. Mota was not mentioned among the free agents the Giants are pursuing. I'm also not sure where Ray would fit in unless they go with a 12 man pitching staff, but then that brings into question what their bench will be.
- From what I recall, someone mentioned asked about moving Zito or Rowand, and Sabean supported Zito, noting how valuable he was during the season by eatting up innings, but didn't go that far with Rowand. There was a twitter rumor that the Phillies would be willing to take Rowand off the Giants hands if they paid most of his salary. With two seasons left, the Giants might be willing to do that since they will have Burrell, DeRosa, and Schierholtz as backup OF and the bench is full. This could be similar to the Livan situation where they paid off most of his salary, only for two seasons and about three times the total money. But unless we get a nice prospect in return, I don't see the upside of that is. Rowand could be on the bench instead while Burrell starts, I think there are a lot of mix and matching that Bochy can and will do if he could chose between Torres, Ross, Rowand, Burrell, Schierholtz and DeRosa. Rowand is useful when he is hot, but if he's cold, then others can get starts. I would bet that this is why Burrell offered to come back on the bench, he knew he could not necessarily come back if he were paid like a starter, because then what do the Giants do with Rowand, and he really wanted to return to the team (particularly if Huff returns).
He also mentioned what was announced the other day, that Dan Runzler will be converted to starting pitcher for 2011. As El Lefty Malo has been noting at his website for a while, the Giants don't have any pitcher ready to take over if the worse case scenario happens and we lose one of our great starters. Runzler could be one of the top ones to be promoted if he can successfully convert to starting. I think another reason they are doing this is because he hasn't been able to stop walking guys, and sometimes teams would move the guy into starting to give him more practice in game conditions to improve on that.
The Machine Unmasked and Exposed
I'll end with a big scoop that Brian Sabean gave on-air: the Machine that Brian Wilson refers to (in various on-line videos of an interview to a leather fetish wearing man walking in the background) is the Giants left-fielder. That presumably means Pat Burrell, because it certainly wasn't Mark DeRosa, Andres Torres, or Cody Ross (though I suppose Aubrey Huff could have that body type) and he was the starting left-fielder when the season ended. I'm not going to link to the video, but it is all over, on Twitter, on YouTube, probably other places too.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 2010 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS: After the Bliss
It is all still sinking in. The glory of it. The joy of it!
While the game was going, I was anxiously nervous, but not worried, as I've been for a while now. I had gotten used to the magic that the Giants would somehow win 2 of 3, and that the losses along the way were just part of the process, just as the wins were too. So the losses did not bother me much, we still had the rest of the series or had already won that series. And like that tired marathon racer, the Giants fell across the line and won the race to the NL West title.
So as Lincecum dueled with Lee, like a good novel, like a good thriller movie, I was anxious as the drama built up, pitch by pitch, inning by inning, until the 7th inning began. First, of course, for this season, this playoffs, Cody Ross singles to get on firstbase. Second, Uribe singles for runners on firstbase and secondbase, first time in the game that either team had a runner in scoring position.
Huff's Beautifully Placed Bunt
Then Huff, oh my gosh, Huff Daddy Rally Thong, our big hitter and RBI during the season, surprises the WORLD by dropping the most beautiful bunt, he almost got a hit with that, if not for a great play by Lee, but the more important thing is he did the job, he got the runners to second and third. It wasn't surprising to hear that it was his first sacrifice bunt in the season, but not only that, it was his first sacrifice bunt in his MLB CAREER EVER! You give the best bunters in the game today 10 good pitches to make as good a bunt and they probably couldn't do it 10 times, it was not that easy to do.
The more surprising thing is, and I heard this on KNBR radio, in early September (recall person saying Sept. 1), Bochy pulls Huff aside, said that he's not sure he'll ever call for it, but since Huff might be batting down in the order against a LHP, might give him the call to do it. In an interview after the clinching game, Huff said that even if Bochy didn't order the bunt, he would have done it anyway. And that bunt was masterfully done.
That epitomizes the Aubrey Huff that Giants fans have fallen in love with this season. They said that he's pretty bad on defense, and he works his thong off so that he wasn't half bad. The way Burrell was coming out for Schierholtz for most of the season, that was suppose to be the plan for Huff and Ishikawa, only Huff played defense well enough that Bochy did not do that in every game played. I do not doubt that he worked hard to be able to drop that bunt.
Connection with 1962 World Series
I doubt I was the only one thinking of this, but when he dropped that bunt, I immediately thought of how Felipe Alou failed to bunt in a similar situation in 1962's World Series, and how that taught him a lesson in being prepared for anything, of knowing the fundamentals. Felipe has talked of this moment often and the story was reported again for this World Series. I'm sure Huff knows the story as well, and maybe that gave him added motivation to learn to bunt well. Still, I think he would have done the work anyway (just like he would have bunted anyway), he's just that type of player.
Anyway, when Huff was successful at the bunt, I immediately thought of the connection with 1962 and how it was like we went back in time to redo the moment and this time the batter was successful bunting instead of failing, and it seemed like something was going to happen.
Burrell would have made the story great, I thought, took out because he wasn't hitting and especially because he was striking out all the time. Unfortunately, he could not deliver, though he battled Lee for so many pitches that I thought he was going to get to lee, he struck out - again. Then Edgar Renteria strode to the plate...
Renteria 3-Run Blast: It is Gaaawwwn!
I'll never forget Dave Flemming's classic call on that homer. The emotion in his voice makes me weepy now, hearing it again. I was screaming my head off, fist pumping, giving off random yells for the next few minutes. I couldn't believe it, the Giants led 3-0, and we only needed 9 more outs.
Renteria had apparently jokingly told other players (such as Torres) that he was going to hit one out before the game, so he proved prophetic nonetheless. He said that Burrell's AB was critical because it allowed him to see a bunch of Lee's pitches and he decided to focus on Lee's cutter to swing at. His swing was a thing of beauty, and the ball just looked so good coming off the bat too. And he got enough of it that it went over the fence.
Timmy made me nervous with his 7th, but he calmed down (he admitted he was a bit amped by the homer), and shut the Rangers down the rest of the way in the 7th and 8th. At only 106 pitches, he probably would normally be given the chance to close it down. As some said, he earned that honor, but this is why I've been so supportive of Bochy during the playoffs, he played it to win, and to do that, you go all in with your closer, who is fresh and pretty much shut down lately. People forget, too, that Lincecum is only human, and he and the other starters are going far beyond the IP he had done previously. Some of them were running on fumes.
Pandamonium
Wilson, as he has in the latter part of the season, shut down the Rangers in order, none of the drama people are used to in his prior incarnation. Somewhere, in the latter part of the season, it just clicked for him. Wish I knew when the Beard started up, but he suddenly just started becoming The Machine, getting outs without a lot of the drama that giving up runners generates. Nen-like, even.
I was shopping with my wife and daughter (she's going on a Girl Scout backpacking outing and need equipment), so I brought my portable radio so that I could listen while shopping, but it failed me in the Target store, missing the drama (luckily) but held in suspense, because Timmy had just gave up the homer and was in the process of walking Kinsler.
But as fate would have it, the next store was Costco, and as we stroke into the store, the game was being played on one of their big screen TVs, and the bottom of the 9th was starting, so I stayed and watched to the clinching strikeout of Nelson Cruz. I gave out a yelp, among the people who were suddenly my friends, and hugged my daughter, who stayed and watched with me while my wife was away.
It was so great getting to see that joyous celebration and not just listen to it. I wish Fox would have followed it live, it was neat that they repeated the scene, over and over again, from seemingly each of the cameras they had operating at the game, but after a while, I just really wanted to see the live celebration, but then they cut to a commercial and reality returned and I had to go shopping.
Giants Random Thoughts
I have been reveling in the joy that I'm experiencing now that my Giants are World Series Champions. I've been reading articles and watching videos, and my reaction to the win was actually pretty understated. I was so pumped by Renteria's homer, I was screaming and yelling for a while, but as the game wound down, the win seemed anti-climatic somehow. But I would now be reading or watching, and something would hit me randomly, and I would get all weepy with joy. I expect this to last a while.
This was a team effort. That was clear by the new hero every night, and yet certain names would continually pop up: Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross, Uribe, and now Renteria. And, of course, the pitching staff epitomizes the team concept, each pitcher can only take care of what they can, then let another pitcher try to do the same, and win. Having a Tim Lincecum is great (Cliff Lee), but how much better is it having Matt Cain (Colby Lewis), and then there is Jonathan Sanchez (CJ Wilson), and then the coup de grace, we also have Madison Bumgarner (no answer). Then you have the bullpen, because no starter finishes all their games now, Cainer had 4 and people are amazed. And THEN you have BWills, Fear the Beard, The Machine, and he shut down the opposition.
This team reminded me of the 1990 Reds, a team that didn't have any superstars, had a lot of players who had career years that you couldn't expect to do ever again. Of course, we do have Timmy, 2-time Cy Young winner, but he had a down season (for him) in 2010. This thought came to me during the end of the season, and it still seems like it is something that still fits, now that they won.
Off-Season: Sign 'em Up!
Now comes the hard work of figuring out who stays and who goes, plus who wants to go. Huff is probably the number one priority and I just don't see him not signing with the Giants. He "only" got a 2-year, $16M contract in his last big contract, and he was three years younger. I don't see how he doesn't sign a 2-year, $12M contract like Franchez and DeRosa did.
Number two is Cody Ross, and the Giants control him for one more year of arbitration, so it should be easy to get him on board. I don't see him going to arb, the Giants are usually fair, and he is like Cinderella, with the pumpkin ride and dancing with royalty now, he will want to be here. He made around $4.5M in the 2010 season and reports had him at $6M for arb in 2011. But with his down year in 2010, I think somewhere in the $5M range is probably what he gets. The team needs power and he can provide it, I see him being like the Jeff Kent acquisition, not that he's as good, but he has shown power before and should be able to deliver it for us in RF in 2011.
Number three is Pat Burrell. He has already said that he's willing to come back as a bench player in 2011. I don't see him changing his mind, though the Giants might have other plans for him eventually and start him again. And if he's willing to be a bench player, that means he's only looking for $1-2M in salary. He should be a slamdunk.
However, I'm not sure how this works in the outfield. It actually works best if Burrell is on the bench, as the Giants will have Torres, Ross, Rowand, and Schierholtz battling for the starting spots. Nate could be odd man out or maybe in a platoon with Rowand, perhaps. Then there is 1B and if the Giants go with Ishikawa at 1B, then Huff would be in the OF for sure. Lots of decisions to be made.
Shortstop is another area. Renteria is certainly not getting his option picked up. He might be good as a utility MI for $1-2M, but I doubt he would want to do that, he has his money, he has his business ventures, he'll probably want to retire up on top, and move on to the businesses he wants to do. Uribe is probably going to be offered more by another team than the Giants are willing (able?) to pay.
The Giants could go with Brandon Crawford, as his D has gotten rave reviews, while his O hasn't, as a lineup with Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Ross, Burrell, Sandoval, SS is actually pretty good, particularly if Sandoval started hitting like Pandoval again. That would save money as well as give a prospect a chance to start. There is also Emmanuel Burriss as well, though most had him pegged as a 2B in the majors.
The pitching rotation, as I noted in a prior post, is set for years. The bullpen is pretty much set for 2011, with the only probable change being Mota being let go as a free agent, as the Giants still have Chris Ray from the Molina trade and still control his contract, I think he's up for arb.
It was also announced that Dan Runzler will be tried at starting pitcher for 2011, so he's out of the bullpen now and will be the emergency starter in training in 2011, as the Giants traded away Pucetas and Martinez and don't really have anyone high in the system who might be able to step in, just in case of injury.
Re-Peat? Three-Peat? Quad-Peat?
So most of the Giants keys to the playoffs should be back next season, and there are a lot of situations that suggest improvement. The Giants were winning at over a 2 of 3 pace after Posey took over, for half a season and into the playoffs. He'll be starting all season in 2011. Sandoval should be back to normal now that his personal travails are over. We'll have Torres for a full season too. Probably Burrell too. Bumgarner definitely, and a newly mature Jonathan Sanchez will be dealing for more of the season than he was in 2010, when he seemed up and down until September and DeRosa gave him that tip. Lopez and Ramirez all season, plus Affeldt look like his old self by the end of the season, if he can approach his 2009 form, that would be a great addition. I think Ray can be helpful in the setup situation as well. And, of course, Cody Ross all season. There is no reason right now to think that 2011 couldn't be a similar season.
Now that the Giants got their first World Series championship, now I want more. I think we have the base core of players who can lead us to multiple trip to the big show during the 2010's, as I've been writing here for a while. With our pitching, we should be able to seal the deal at least another time or maybe two. The A's and their fans have been flaunting their championships for many years now, and we need three more to catch up, four to pass. Of course, most of them happened 40 years ago and the last one 20 years ago, so they are like the Raiders, living on former glories. Maybe they'll have better luck in San Jose. In any case, I think we can come closer but that's a tall order to catch up and to pass. Nonetheless: Go Giants!
While the game was going, I was anxiously nervous, but not worried, as I've been for a while now. I had gotten used to the magic that the Giants would somehow win 2 of 3, and that the losses along the way were just part of the process, just as the wins were too. So the losses did not bother me much, we still had the rest of the series or had already won that series. And like that tired marathon racer, the Giants fell across the line and won the race to the NL West title.
So as Lincecum dueled with Lee, like a good novel, like a good thriller movie, I was anxious as the drama built up, pitch by pitch, inning by inning, until the 7th inning began. First, of course, for this season, this playoffs, Cody Ross singles to get on firstbase. Second, Uribe singles for runners on firstbase and secondbase, first time in the game that either team had a runner in scoring position.
Huff's Beautifully Placed Bunt
Then Huff, oh my gosh, Huff Daddy Rally Thong, our big hitter and RBI during the season, surprises the WORLD by dropping the most beautiful bunt, he almost got a hit with that, if not for a great play by Lee, but the more important thing is he did the job, he got the runners to second and third. It wasn't surprising to hear that it was his first sacrifice bunt in the season, but not only that, it was his first sacrifice bunt in his MLB CAREER EVER! You give the best bunters in the game today 10 good pitches to make as good a bunt and they probably couldn't do it 10 times, it was not that easy to do.
The more surprising thing is, and I heard this on KNBR radio, in early September (recall person saying Sept. 1), Bochy pulls Huff aside, said that he's not sure he'll ever call for it, but since Huff might be batting down in the order against a LHP, might give him the call to do it. In an interview after the clinching game, Huff said that even if Bochy didn't order the bunt, he would have done it anyway. And that bunt was masterfully done.
That epitomizes the Aubrey Huff that Giants fans have fallen in love with this season. They said that he's pretty bad on defense, and he works his thong off so that he wasn't half bad. The way Burrell was coming out for Schierholtz for most of the season, that was suppose to be the plan for Huff and Ishikawa, only Huff played defense well enough that Bochy did not do that in every game played. I do not doubt that he worked hard to be able to drop that bunt.
Connection with 1962 World Series
I doubt I was the only one thinking of this, but when he dropped that bunt, I immediately thought of how Felipe Alou failed to bunt in a similar situation in 1962's World Series, and how that taught him a lesson in being prepared for anything, of knowing the fundamentals. Felipe has talked of this moment often and the story was reported again for this World Series. I'm sure Huff knows the story as well, and maybe that gave him added motivation to learn to bunt well. Still, I think he would have done the work anyway (just like he would have bunted anyway), he's just that type of player.
Anyway, when Huff was successful at the bunt, I immediately thought of the connection with 1962 and how it was like we went back in time to redo the moment and this time the batter was successful bunting instead of failing, and it seemed like something was going to happen.
Burrell would have made the story great, I thought, took out because he wasn't hitting and especially because he was striking out all the time. Unfortunately, he could not deliver, though he battled Lee for so many pitches that I thought he was going to get to lee, he struck out - again. Then Edgar Renteria strode to the plate...
Renteria 3-Run Blast: It is Gaaawwwn!
I'll never forget Dave Flemming's classic call on that homer. The emotion in his voice makes me weepy now, hearing it again. I was screaming my head off, fist pumping, giving off random yells for the next few minutes. I couldn't believe it, the Giants led 3-0, and we only needed 9 more outs.
Renteria had apparently jokingly told other players (such as Torres) that he was going to hit one out before the game, so he proved prophetic nonetheless. He said that Burrell's AB was critical because it allowed him to see a bunch of Lee's pitches and he decided to focus on Lee's cutter to swing at. His swing was a thing of beauty, and the ball just looked so good coming off the bat too. And he got enough of it that it went over the fence.
Timmy made me nervous with his 7th, but he calmed down (he admitted he was a bit amped by the homer), and shut the Rangers down the rest of the way in the 7th and 8th. At only 106 pitches, he probably would normally be given the chance to close it down. As some said, he earned that honor, but this is why I've been so supportive of Bochy during the playoffs, he played it to win, and to do that, you go all in with your closer, who is fresh and pretty much shut down lately. People forget, too, that Lincecum is only human, and he and the other starters are going far beyond the IP he had done previously. Some of them were running on fumes.
Pandamonium
Wilson, as he has in the latter part of the season, shut down the Rangers in order, none of the drama people are used to in his prior incarnation. Somewhere, in the latter part of the season, it just clicked for him. Wish I knew when the Beard started up, but he suddenly just started becoming The Machine, getting outs without a lot of the drama that giving up runners generates. Nen-like, even.
I was shopping with my wife and daughter (she's going on a Girl Scout backpacking outing and need equipment), so I brought my portable radio so that I could listen while shopping, but it failed me in the Target store, missing the drama (luckily) but held in suspense, because Timmy had just gave up the homer and was in the process of walking Kinsler.
But as fate would have it, the next store was Costco, and as we stroke into the store, the game was being played on one of their big screen TVs, and the bottom of the 9th was starting, so I stayed and watched to the clinching strikeout of Nelson Cruz. I gave out a yelp, among the people who were suddenly my friends, and hugged my daughter, who stayed and watched with me while my wife was away.
It was so great getting to see that joyous celebration and not just listen to it. I wish Fox would have followed it live, it was neat that they repeated the scene, over and over again, from seemingly each of the cameras they had operating at the game, but after a while, I just really wanted to see the live celebration, but then they cut to a commercial and reality returned and I had to go shopping.
Giants Random Thoughts
I have been reveling in the joy that I'm experiencing now that my Giants are World Series Champions. I've been reading articles and watching videos, and my reaction to the win was actually pretty understated. I was so pumped by Renteria's homer, I was screaming and yelling for a while, but as the game wound down, the win seemed anti-climatic somehow. But I would now be reading or watching, and something would hit me randomly, and I would get all weepy with joy. I expect this to last a while.
This was a team effort. That was clear by the new hero every night, and yet certain names would continually pop up: Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross, Uribe, and now Renteria. And, of course, the pitching staff epitomizes the team concept, each pitcher can only take care of what they can, then let another pitcher try to do the same, and win. Having a Tim Lincecum is great (Cliff Lee), but how much better is it having Matt Cain (Colby Lewis), and then there is Jonathan Sanchez (CJ Wilson), and then the coup de grace, we also have Madison Bumgarner (no answer). Then you have the bullpen, because no starter finishes all their games now, Cainer had 4 and people are amazed. And THEN you have BWills, Fear the Beard, The Machine, and he shut down the opposition.
This team reminded me of the 1990 Reds, a team that didn't have any superstars, had a lot of players who had career years that you couldn't expect to do ever again. Of course, we do have Timmy, 2-time Cy Young winner, but he had a down season (for him) in 2010. This thought came to me during the end of the season, and it still seems like it is something that still fits, now that they won.
Off-Season: Sign 'em Up!
Now comes the hard work of figuring out who stays and who goes, plus who wants to go. Huff is probably the number one priority and I just don't see him not signing with the Giants. He "only" got a 2-year, $16M contract in his last big contract, and he was three years younger. I don't see how he doesn't sign a 2-year, $12M contract like Franchez and DeRosa did.
Number two is Cody Ross, and the Giants control him for one more year of arbitration, so it should be easy to get him on board. I don't see him going to arb, the Giants are usually fair, and he is like Cinderella, with the pumpkin ride and dancing with royalty now, he will want to be here. He made around $4.5M in the 2010 season and reports had him at $6M for arb in 2011. But with his down year in 2010, I think somewhere in the $5M range is probably what he gets. The team needs power and he can provide it, I see him being like the Jeff Kent acquisition, not that he's as good, but he has shown power before and should be able to deliver it for us in RF in 2011.
Number three is Pat Burrell. He has already said that he's willing to come back as a bench player in 2011. I don't see him changing his mind, though the Giants might have other plans for him eventually and start him again. And if he's willing to be a bench player, that means he's only looking for $1-2M in salary. He should be a slamdunk.
However, I'm not sure how this works in the outfield. It actually works best if Burrell is on the bench, as the Giants will have Torres, Ross, Rowand, and Schierholtz battling for the starting spots. Nate could be odd man out or maybe in a platoon with Rowand, perhaps. Then there is 1B and if the Giants go with Ishikawa at 1B, then Huff would be in the OF for sure. Lots of decisions to be made.
Shortstop is another area. Renteria is certainly not getting his option picked up. He might be good as a utility MI for $1-2M, but I doubt he would want to do that, he has his money, he has his business ventures, he'll probably want to retire up on top, and move on to the businesses he wants to do. Uribe is probably going to be offered more by another team than the Giants are willing (able?) to pay.
The Giants could go with Brandon Crawford, as his D has gotten rave reviews, while his O hasn't, as a lineup with Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Ross, Burrell, Sandoval, SS is actually pretty good, particularly if Sandoval started hitting like Pandoval again. That would save money as well as give a prospect a chance to start. There is also Emmanuel Burriss as well, though most had him pegged as a 2B in the majors.
The pitching rotation, as I noted in a prior post, is set for years. The bullpen is pretty much set for 2011, with the only probable change being Mota being let go as a free agent, as the Giants still have Chris Ray from the Molina trade and still control his contract, I think he's up for arb.
It was also announced that Dan Runzler will be tried at starting pitcher for 2011, so he's out of the bullpen now and will be the emergency starter in training in 2011, as the Giants traded away Pucetas and Martinez and don't really have anyone high in the system who might be able to step in, just in case of injury.
Re-Peat? Three-Peat? Quad-Peat?
So most of the Giants keys to the playoffs should be back next season, and there are a lot of situations that suggest improvement. The Giants were winning at over a 2 of 3 pace after Posey took over, for half a season and into the playoffs. He'll be starting all season in 2011. Sandoval should be back to normal now that his personal travails are over. We'll have Torres for a full season too. Probably Burrell too. Bumgarner definitely, and a newly mature Jonathan Sanchez will be dealing for more of the season than he was in 2010, when he seemed up and down until September and DeRosa gave him that tip. Lopez and Ramirez all season, plus Affeldt look like his old self by the end of the season, if he can approach his 2009 form, that would be a great addition. I think Ray can be helpful in the setup situation as well. And, of course, Cody Ross all season. There is no reason right now to think that 2011 couldn't be a similar season.
Now that the Giants got their first World Series championship, now I want more. I think we have the base core of players who can lead us to multiple trip to the big show during the 2010's, as I've been writing here for a while. With our pitching, we should be able to seal the deal at least another time or maybe two. The A's and their fans have been flaunting their championships for many years now, and we need three more to catch up, four to pass. Of course, most of them happened 40 years ago and the last one 20 years ago, so they are like the Raiders, living on former glories. Maybe they'll have better luck in San Jose. In any case, I think we can come closer but that's a tall order to catch up and to pass. Nonetheless: Go Giants!
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 2-1 in the World Series: MadBum Must Hunt Down Rangers
Well, couldn't expect to sweep them, though Ralph was going on and on about that happening on KNBR on Friday. Got to tip the cap to Lewis for delivering, while Sanchez apparently is tiring due to the number of innings he has thrown. Game 7's starter is now uncertain.
This is why I wanted the Giants to put Zito on the playoff roster, in case he might be needed. I thought Bumgarner would be the one who would be fatigued, though. Still, with Sanchez in question for Game 7, it could either become a bullpen game or the Giants might decide to go to Lincecum for as long as he can go, since he would have pitched Game 5 and would have had two days rest and thus on the day of Game 7, that would be his normal throwing day anyway. It could be much like Game 6 in the NLCS, with pitchers pitching in.
Also uncertain is the lineup for Game 4. Burrell is in a deep slump now and has not delivered in any of the World Series games he has started in. And Sandoval did not deliver in Game 3, he looked like he was pressing again, unfortunately. He is also a question mark as well. With a RHP up in game 4 in Hunter, the Giants might go with Schierholtz in the outfield, Ishikawa at 1B, and Huff at DH, or at least one of those changes. Given how lousy Hunter has been, I would be OK with making all these changes and see how it works, but Bochy don't like to make a lot of changes, so we'll see.
Don't know why the media is so down. It just dawned on me that perhaps it is the media's fault that the general fan has been so down on the Giants. One game lost and "the Giants stumble" is the headline on the Mercury. No wonder some fans are suicidal about the Giants, like lemmings they follow the mood of the headline.
The Giants are still up 2-1. They are one of the better teams in the majors on the road, and they have been especially good once Posey was named the starting catcher, they were actually among the poorer teams mid-season, but they not only rose and got better, they ended up one of the top teams on the road.
Having a great rotation does not mean that you run roughshod over every team and sweep them, though that will happen on occasion. It means that you will outlast most teams in the long run. It means that you will win 2 out of every 3, or so, in most series. It means that you have faith in what the team has demonstrated it can do for half a season now: play winning baseball.
Of course, it would help if we have more hitters other than maybe Cody Ross and Andres Torres hitting regularly. It would be nice if Burrell stepped up, but sometimes the best hitters are slumping now (Barry Bonds was considered a poor playoff performer until 2002). However, the two I've been hoping could step up are Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval froze in the spotlight again last night, but I don't totally blame him, he hasn't been starting regularly lately. And it would have been nice if Posey had hit that foul ball last night for a homer.
I would also be OK with moving Huff to LF to replace Burrell, give him a day to get his mind off playoffs, start Ishikawa at 1B, and give Sandoval another chance at DH. We need to get Sandoval or Burrell heated up to improve our chances of scoring runs. Sitting down Burrell while giving Sandoval another chance could help with getting them started. And, unfortunately, we don't have any better alternatives, I think.
Plus, I think Ishikawa is ready for his chance at spotlight, he has hit well enough since May of 2009, both starting and mostly sitting and waiting for his chances. Lucky for the Giants but bad for Ishikawa, both Huff and Burrell came through and hit as well as they could be expected to during the season. Hopefully he can rise to the occasion, or rather that he can be calm for the occasion, he has said previously that when he thought too much about the situation, it would mess up his swing mechanics, but when he can leave it all up to God, that's when he's swinging freely.
Game 4: Hunter vs. Bumgarner
I still like the Giants chances against Hunter. Lewis is a very good pitcher, he will have good well-pitched games most of the time. Had the Giants continued to rack up the pitches (he had over 30 after two innings pitched), they could have got him out earlier and got into the middle relievers and do more damage perhaps, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But can't expect every game to be like Games 1 and 2.
I think Bumgarner will be able to deliver a better game than Sanchez, but for how much longer? He was tiring in his prior start too, and he had 9 days of rest for that one too. It might be another bullpen game with Bumgarner going 5, then get one inning from four relievers.
In any case, Hunter has had horrible starts all through the playoffs so far. Don't really see him improving and suddenly performing well on the big World Series stage, when he could not do it on the smaller stages in less critical situations. Meanwhile, Bumgarner appears to be an assassin with ice cold water going through his veins. He's going to be a monster for us in the playoffs in future years, teamed up with Lincecum and Cain. I would have to say that the Giants chances are good for winning the game and getting to 3-1. But, as the saying goes, that's why they play the games, you just never know.
Go Giants!
This is why I wanted the Giants to put Zito on the playoff roster, in case he might be needed. I thought Bumgarner would be the one who would be fatigued, though. Still, with Sanchez in question for Game 7, it could either become a bullpen game or the Giants might decide to go to Lincecum for as long as he can go, since he would have pitched Game 5 and would have had two days rest and thus on the day of Game 7, that would be his normal throwing day anyway. It could be much like Game 6 in the NLCS, with pitchers pitching in.
Also uncertain is the lineup for Game 4. Burrell is in a deep slump now and has not delivered in any of the World Series games he has started in. And Sandoval did not deliver in Game 3, he looked like he was pressing again, unfortunately. He is also a question mark as well. With a RHP up in game 4 in Hunter, the Giants might go with Schierholtz in the outfield, Ishikawa at 1B, and Huff at DH, or at least one of those changes. Given how lousy Hunter has been, I would be OK with making all these changes and see how it works, but Bochy don't like to make a lot of changes, so we'll see.
Don't know why the media is so down. It just dawned on me that perhaps it is the media's fault that the general fan has been so down on the Giants. One game lost and "the Giants stumble" is the headline on the Mercury. No wonder some fans are suicidal about the Giants, like lemmings they follow the mood of the headline.
The Giants are still up 2-1. They are one of the better teams in the majors on the road, and they have been especially good once Posey was named the starting catcher, they were actually among the poorer teams mid-season, but they not only rose and got better, they ended up one of the top teams on the road.
Having a great rotation does not mean that you run roughshod over every team and sweep them, though that will happen on occasion. It means that you will outlast most teams in the long run. It means that you will win 2 out of every 3, or so, in most series. It means that you have faith in what the team has demonstrated it can do for half a season now: play winning baseball.
Of course, it would help if we have more hitters other than maybe Cody Ross and Andres Torres hitting regularly. It would be nice if Burrell stepped up, but sometimes the best hitters are slumping now (Barry Bonds was considered a poor playoff performer until 2002). However, the two I've been hoping could step up are Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval froze in the spotlight again last night, but I don't totally blame him, he hasn't been starting regularly lately. And it would have been nice if Posey had hit that foul ball last night for a homer.
I would also be OK with moving Huff to LF to replace Burrell, give him a day to get his mind off playoffs, start Ishikawa at 1B, and give Sandoval another chance at DH. We need to get Sandoval or Burrell heated up to improve our chances of scoring runs. Sitting down Burrell while giving Sandoval another chance could help with getting them started. And, unfortunately, we don't have any better alternatives, I think.
Plus, I think Ishikawa is ready for his chance at spotlight, he has hit well enough since May of 2009, both starting and mostly sitting and waiting for his chances. Lucky for the Giants but bad for Ishikawa, both Huff and Burrell came through and hit as well as they could be expected to during the season. Hopefully he can rise to the occasion, or rather that he can be calm for the occasion, he has said previously that when he thought too much about the situation, it would mess up his swing mechanics, but when he can leave it all up to God, that's when he's swinging freely.
Game 4: Hunter vs. Bumgarner
I still like the Giants chances against Hunter. Lewis is a very good pitcher, he will have good well-pitched games most of the time. Had the Giants continued to rack up the pitches (he had over 30 after two innings pitched), they could have got him out earlier and got into the middle relievers and do more damage perhaps, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But can't expect every game to be like Games 1 and 2.
I think Bumgarner will be able to deliver a better game than Sanchez, but for how much longer? He was tiring in his prior start too, and he had 9 days of rest for that one too. It might be another bullpen game with Bumgarner going 5, then get one inning from four relievers.
In any case, Hunter has had horrible starts all through the playoffs so far. Don't really see him improving and suddenly performing well on the big World Series stage, when he could not do it on the smaller stages in less critical situations. Meanwhile, Bumgarner appears to be an assassin with ice cold water going through his veins. He's going to be a monster for us in the playoffs in future years, teamed up with Lincecum and Cain. I would have to say that the Giants chances are good for winning the game and getting to 3-1. But, as the saying goes, that's why they play the games, you just never know.
Go Giants!
Thursday, September 30, 2010
Your Giants 2010 Magic Number is 3
With another gem from Lincecum - and for those worried about his lowered velocity and early wildness and lack of control/precision, John Shea tweeted that he was actually sick, coughing quite a bit - and another game-winning bomb (7th go-ahead homer for Giants this season) from Pat the Bat Burrell (3 run homer this time; his 20th HR of season, 18th with Giants), the Giants win, dropping their magic number to 3.
SD won, so the Cubs didn't help there, too bad, because Wells had been doing well, and now the Cubs have a former Pirate pitching, Tom Gorzelanny, against SD's Garland today, so probably no help from them today (but that's OK, they had already won two games in SD, that's what I wanted at minimum).
And who knows, Gorzelanny has had a nice season (4.28 ERA) so he might have one last good start in him, though he has been pounded in two of this last three start, four of last 6, and five of last 8. However, it looks like he was injured earlier in this month and just had his first start back, totally wild. Before that start, his ERA was below 4, which was pretty good. If he got his kinks out, he could have a nice start, particular in pitcher's park Petco Park. However, in two starts there, pounded...
By finally winning a game against the Cubs, the 'Dres ensure that the Giants cannot win the NL West without beating SD once this weekend. But as I noted yesterday, one more Giants win or 'Dres loss today would mean that the Giants only have to win one game to win NL West. So, once again, the Giants need to win today, this time to avoid needing to win series against 'Dres.
Braves kept up too - Marlins was no help, getting swept, as Hanley didn't play at all during the series. I guess they needed and missed Co-Dy. They are still half a game behind the Giants and depending on how the Giants do today, will either be tied with or one game behind the Giants. Ideally, whatever happens with the Braves, the Giants probably would want to avoid the Phillies, both because of their pitching and hitting, as well as the fact that our pitchers would get one more day of rest if we were in the other series (Game 1 with Phillies on Oct. 6th; Game 1 for other playoff teams on Oct. 7th). That would mean winning NL West and finishing ahead of the Reds.
Speaking of the Reds, Jeff Fletcher tweeted that if the Reds lose one more game and (he had "or" but I think he meant "and") the Giants or 'Dres win on Thursday, the Reds would end up 3rd in the NL, with the NL West winner 2nd and WC slot, of course, 4th. This is because the Giants won the season's series with them and thus would win any tie-breaker. As the Giants are two games ahead of the Reds, the magic number for the Giants to finish tied or above Reds is 2, as long as they win the NL West title.
Lincecum!
Lincecum is just amazing. He did all that yesterday while very sick. Looked like he would not last out of first inning or two, but ends up giving up just that one run, on the homer on the second pitch of the game: way to recover from that! And he ended up striking out 10, the 26th time in his career to record double-digit K's and 7th this season. Also, as Baggarly tweeted, because his competitors for this title have been shut down for the season, The Kid will join Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn as the only pitchers since WW II to lead NL in strikeouts in 3 consecutive seasons.
It was also tweeted that Lincecum has the most strikeouts by any player since 1893 in their first four seasons with 907 strikeouts; the prior record holder was Doc Gooden with 892. I had thought long ago that Jerome Williams would be the one doing what Gooden did (some prospecthounds were comparing his minor league stats with Gooden's). But better late than never, though with Lincecum. He has been doing historical things that had never been done before and just continues to do that. The Giants (and their fans) are truly fortunate.
Giants Rotation Against SD
As has been tweeted by many, and blogged about by Baggerly, the Giants announced their rotation for the 'Dres series. Baggerly explained what it means pretty well, so I'll go with that:
Who is #3 Starter?
Baggerly also had good speculation about the third starter and why the Giants might go with a different option depending on the situation:
In a 5 game series the third game is actually pivotal in all scenarios. If the Giants had lost the first two games, they really need to win that third game or they will be eliminated. If the Giants had split the first two games, the loser of the third game then needs to win the last two games, while the winner only needs to win one. Lastly, if the Giant had won the first two games, if the Giants win the third game, they win the series, but if the lose, the other team now is back in the series, only one game behind and feeling hopeful again. Not as urgent in this last case, but still, winning would give our pitchers extra rest before the NL and save our best pitchers for next series.
Because Bumgarner is going way beyond his prior IP totals, I don't see how he is not in the bullpen as long man, but that Bochy will have a quick trigger in pulling a struggling starter before the disaster start makes it too hard for the team to come back from. There is enough days inbetween series that even if the first series go the full number of games that Lincecum can pitch in the NLCS on regular rest, but if there is a 5th game, Cain would be pitching on shorter (4 days) rest, which is probably OK, but still. I would be OK with Bumgarner starting 2nd game of NLCS to allow Cain more rest in game 3, as that would still allow Cain to pitch again in NLCS, game 7. And if need be, on shorter rest in game 6.
I can see him being the #3 starter next season in the playoffs (for the season, I think the Giants will keep current order, to mix up styles and such, plus put less pressure on Sanchez and Bumgarner still). I think that he's that good.
Keep Buster as Catcher
There were some people on ExtraBaggs complaining that Buster should be "saved" by moving him to another position, as then he wouldn't be slumping now, because he's worn out playing catcher. Here is my response to them (plus my inevitable tweeks):
About Posey, while our rotation is one of the best right now, and could become one of the best ever in a few years (thank you Brian Sabean, hope you get an extension), does anyone really think that the historic 17 game (and now 20 of 21 games, wonder if that has happened before in MLB history) streak of 3 runs allowed or less happens without Buster? Sure, move him off catcher when he signs a 10 year, $300M contract with us, but for now, let him catch, he looks like he can become among one of the best ever.
And Posey is not slumping in September. In Sept, he has hit 6 HR in 86 AB, with a batting line of .244/.337/.500/.837 and his .224 BABIP suggests some extreme bad luck in balls falling in. If that is a slump, I hope he continues slumping.
In fact, Posey's OPS was rising most of the month until recently. His "slump" has been all of 5 games, from Sept 24 to now. What, he can't have a stretch of 5 bad games hitting now, is he suppose to walk on the waters of McCovey Cove next?
And as I noted, his abnormally low BABIP is the cause of his bad batting average, but as one can see, he has adjusted by taking many more walks to keep his OBP OK this month. This wunderkind can do it all!
There is a reason so many former catchers are managers: they are leaders in the clubhouse. They become good at it because they are essesntially managing the personalities of the 12 man pitching staff, so it is not as big a leap to then manage 25 personalities. Buster is the superstar leader our team has been looking for. For a long time, the Giants have had superstars but none of them were really leaders. Buster is a leader and he will lead us (along with our pitching staff) to the World Series and hopefully our long awaited World Series championship.
Giants Future So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades
In fact, I think the 2010's will be considered the Giants era, where they will dominate with pitching and enough hitting to keep the wins piling up. They will return to their former glories of about 100 years ago, much like Boston did recently, and win some World Series championships. And I predict that the A's will help finance this extended era of excellence by giving a lot of financial concessions to the Giants when they get approval to become the San Jose A's (would San Jose Giants move to Oakland then? :^) but then would have to concede lots and lots of money to the Giants like the Nats had to give up to Orioles.
And I think the Giants will be led by the tandem of Lincecum and Posey. Both are doing historical things (Lincecum with Cy Youngs and strikeouts; Posey guiding pitchers to 17 game streak) and with them around the Giants should be in good shape for years. Of course, they can't do it all alone, with other good to great players contributing, but I think the two of them will be our performance leaders who will dominate the opposition into submission when all is said and done.
SD won, so the Cubs didn't help there, too bad, because Wells had been doing well, and now the Cubs have a former Pirate pitching, Tom Gorzelanny, against SD's Garland today, so probably no help from them today (but that's OK, they had already won two games in SD, that's what I wanted at minimum).
And who knows, Gorzelanny has had a nice season (4.28 ERA) so he might have one last good start in him, though he has been pounded in two of this last three start, four of last 6, and five of last 8. However, it looks like he was injured earlier in this month and just had his first start back, totally wild. Before that start, his ERA was below 4, which was pretty good. If he got his kinks out, he could have a nice start, particular in pitcher's park Petco Park. However, in two starts there, pounded...
By finally winning a game against the Cubs, the 'Dres ensure that the Giants cannot win the NL West without beating SD once this weekend. But as I noted yesterday, one more Giants win or 'Dres loss today would mean that the Giants only have to win one game to win NL West. So, once again, the Giants need to win today, this time to avoid needing to win series against 'Dres.
Braves kept up too - Marlins was no help, getting swept, as Hanley didn't play at all during the series. I guess they needed and missed Co-Dy. They are still half a game behind the Giants and depending on how the Giants do today, will either be tied with or one game behind the Giants. Ideally, whatever happens with the Braves, the Giants probably would want to avoid the Phillies, both because of their pitching and hitting, as well as the fact that our pitchers would get one more day of rest if we were in the other series (Game 1 with Phillies on Oct. 6th; Game 1 for other playoff teams on Oct. 7th). That would mean winning NL West and finishing ahead of the Reds.
Speaking of the Reds, Jeff Fletcher tweeted that if the Reds lose one more game and (he had "or" but I think he meant "and") the Giants or 'Dres win on Thursday, the Reds would end up 3rd in the NL, with the NL West winner 2nd and WC slot, of course, 4th. This is because the Giants won the season's series with them and thus would win any tie-breaker. As the Giants are two games ahead of the Reds, the magic number for the Giants to finish tied or above Reds is 2, as long as they win the NL West title.
Lincecum!
Lincecum is just amazing. He did all that yesterday while very sick. Looked like he would not last out of first inning or two, but ends up giving up just that one run, on the homer on the second pitch of the game: way to recover from that! And he ended up striking out 10, the 26th time in his career to record double-digit K's and 7th this season. Also, as Baggarly tweeted, because his competitors for this title have been shut down for the season, The Kid will join Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn as the only pitchers since WW II to lead NL in strikeouts in 3 consecutive seasons.
It was also tweeted that Lincecum has the most strikeouts by any player since 1893 in their first four seasons with 907 strikeouts; the prior record holder was Doc Gooden with 892. I had thought long ago that Jerome Williams would be the one doing what Gooden did (some prospecthounds were comparing his minor league stats with Gooden's). But better late than never, though with Lincecum. He has been doing historical things that had never been done before and just continues to do that. The Giants (and their fans) are truly fortunate.
Giants Rotation Against SD
As has been tweeted by many, and blogged about by Baggerly, the Giants announced their rotation for the 'Dres series. Baggerly explained what it means pretty well, so I'll go with that:
As you’ve probably heard by now, the Giants altered their rotation for the Padres series.I would also add that this is also to put the Giants knee on the necks of the 'Dres chances of winning the NL West. The Giants will need to win at least one game in the SD series now to win the division. Worse case scenario is if the Giants lost and 'Dres won today, the Giants would need to win two games in the series. However, if the Giants win or if the 'Dres lost today, then the Giants would only need to win one game of the series to win the NL West.
Bruce Bochy moved up Matt Cain to pitch Friday (against Clayton Richard). Cain switched spots with Barry Zito, who will go Saturday on two extra days of rest (against Tim Stauffer). Jonathan Sanchez remains the guy Sunday against Mat Latos.
Bochy said it was simply to keep Cain on regular rest, nothing more. That’s because Bochy is loathe to say anything about lining his playoff rotation, both out of respect to the opposition and also because he might raise the wrath of the many, many baseball gods that rule the universe. (Such as Lothar, maker of bad-hop infield singles.)
It’s pretty clear what is happening. Bochy is moving up Cain because he’d follow Tim Lincecum in Game 2 of an NL Division Series. Also, if something wacky happens and the Giants tie with the Padres and Braves, possibly necessitating two tiebreaker games to get in, the Giants would have Cain on three days of rest in the second game.
Who is #3 Starter?
Baggerly also had good speculation about the third starter and why the Giants might go with a different option depending on the situation:
How would the Giants decide a Division Series Game 3 starter between their three left-handers? That’s a question they’re not ready to touch yet.To me, Zito is auditioning for the post-season rotation. If he has another off start on Saturday while Bumgarner pitches well today, he could get bumped anyway. In any case, I don't see how the Giants don't go with Sanchez #3, he has been pitching so well, and particularly in a short 5 game series.
And really, circumstances will dictate the decision. For instance, if the Giants have home field, then Game 3 would be on the road – most likely in a bandbox like Cincinnati, or possibly Atlanta. They might turn to Sanchez or even Madison Bumgarner, who has a 1.91 ERA on the road, before Zito.
But if the Giants don’t have home-field advantage, Game 3 would be at AT&T Park. And my hunch is that they would send Zito to the mound, backing him up with Bumgarner and not afraid to make a quick change.
Either way, Lincecum and Cain are the Giants’ top two pitchers. And you want them out of the gate first, so you can come back to them as often as possible.
In a 5 game series the third game is actually pivotal in all scenarios. If the Giants had lost the first two games, they really need to win that third game or they will be eliminated. If the Giants had split the first two games, the loser of the third game then needs to win the last two games, while the winner only needs to win one. Lastly, if the Giant had won the first two games, if the Giants win the third game, they win the series, but if the lose, the other team now is back in the series, only one game behind and feeling hopeful again. Not as urgent in this last case, but still, winning would give our pitchers extra rest before the NL and save our best pitchers for next series.
Because Bumgarner is going way beyond his prior IP totals, I don't see how he is not in the bullpen as long man, but that Bochy will have a quick trigger in pulling a struggling starter before the disaster start makes it too hard for the team to come back from. There is enough days inbetween series that even if the first series go the full number of games that Lincecum can pitch in the NLCS on regular rest, but if there is a 5th game, Cain would be pitching on shorter (4 days) rest, which is probably OK, but still. I would be OK with Bumgarner starting 2nd game of NLCS to allow Cain more rest in game 3, as that would still allow Cain to pitch again in NLCS, game 7. And if need be, on shorter rest in game 6.
I can see him being the #3 starter next season in the playoffs (for the season, I think the Giants will keep current order, to mix up styles and such, plus put less pressure on Sanchez and Bumgarner still). I think that he's that good.
Keep Buster as Catcher
There were some people on ExtraBaggs complaining that Buster should be "saved" by moving him to another position, as then he wouldn't be slumping now, because he's worn out playing catcher. Here is my response to them (plus my inevitable tweeks):
About Posey, while our rotation is one of the best right now, and could become one of the best ever in a few years (thank you Brian Sabean, hope you get an extension), does anyone really think that the historic 17 game (and now 20 of 21 games, wonder if that has happened before in MLB history) streak of 3 runs allowed or less happens without Buster? Sure, move him off catcher when he signs a 10 year, $300M contract with us, but for now, let him catch, he looks like he can become among one of the best ever.
And Posey is not slumping in September. In Sept, he has hit 6 HR in 86 AB, with a batting line of .244/.337/.500/.837 and his .224 BABIP suggests some extreme bad luck in balls falling in. If that is a slump, I hope he continues slumping.
In fact, Posey's OPS was rising most of the month until recently. His "slump" has been all of 5 games, from Sept 24 to now. What, he can't have a stretch of 5 bad games hitting now, is he suppose to walk on the waters of McCovey Cove next?
And as I noted, his abnormally low BABIP is the cause of his bad batting average, but as one can see, he has adjusted by taking many more walks to keep his OBP OK this month. This wunderkind can do it all!
There is a reason so many former catchers are managers: they are leaders in the clubhouse. They become good at it because they are essesntially managing the personalities of the 12 man pitching staff, so it is not as big a leap to then manage 25 personalities. Buster is the superstar leader our team has been looking for. For a long time, the Giants have had superstars but none of them were really leaders. Buster is a leader and he will lead us (along with our pitching staff) to the World Series and hopefully our long awaited World Series championship.
Giants Future So Bright, I Gotta Wear Shades
In fact, I think the 2010's will be considered the Giants era, where they will dominate with pitching and enough hitting to keep the wins piling up. They will return to their former glories of about 100 years ago, much like Boston did recently, and win some World Series championships. And I predict that the A's will help finance this extended era of excellence by giving a lot of financial concessions to the Giants when they get approval to become the San Jose A's (would San Jose Giants move to Oakland then? :^) but then would have to concede lots and lots of money to the Giants like the Nats had to give up to Orioles.
And I think the Giants will be led by the tandem of Lincecum and Posey. Both are doing historical things (Lincecum with Cy Youngs and strikeouts; Posey guiding pitchers to 17 game streak) and with them around the Giants should be in good shape for years. Of course, they can't do it all alone, with other good to great players contributing, but I think the two of them will be our performance leaders who will dominate the opposition into submission when all is said and done.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 67-52: On the Road in Philly
While there are some positives to take from the SD series, such as Posey, Sandoval, Bumgarner, the bullpen, particularly Casilla, and I guess Fontenot, we lost the series 1-2 at home against the 'Dres. Makes me crazy because if you take away the games between the two teams, SD is 61-45 and SF is 65-43. The Giants would have a 3 games lead instead of being 4 games behind.
But things like that happens, for while Lincecum did not do that well, as Bochy said, he seemed to be doing things right, because a lot of the hits were dunk hits that dropped in, which in most games would have been outs. Even the best pitchers will have one of those days. Unfortunately, it was when his team really needed him. This win probably gave SD a lot of confidence going into the final two series we have against them, 4 in SD, 3 in SF on the last days of the season.
However, as El Lefty Malo noted, we still have many weeks left in the season, and if we can gain one game in the standings every two weeks, we would enter the last week with 3 against AZ and 3 against SD, both at home, and only 1 game back. If the Giants can do that, got to like our odds, though I would note that while we are facing AZ at home, they are facing the Cubs at home.
Now the Giants start a tough road trip and stretch of games. First three at Philly, then three at St. Louis, the three at home against Dusty's Reds, and you know he's doubly motivated, it's a battle for a playoff spot and you know he would love to show up the Giants, particularly in SF (though his son, the cute guy who almost got run over when JT Snow scored in the World Series, still wants the Giants to draft him when he graduates from high school and can be drafted, I heard in a recent interview).
Game 1: Roy Oswalt vs. Zito
MLB Notes:
But things like that happens, for while Lincecum did not do that well, as Bochy said, he seemed to be doing things right, because a lot of the hits were dunk hits that dropped in, which in most games would have been outs. Even the best pitchers will have one of those days. Unfortunately, it was when his team really needed him. This win probably gave SD a lot of confidence going into the final two series we have against them, 4 in SD, 3 in SF on the last days of the season.
However, as El Lefty Malo noted, we still have many weeks left in the season, and if we can gain one game in the standings every two weeks, we would enter the last week with 3 against AZ and 3 against SD, both at home, and only 1 game back. If the Giants can do that, got to like our odds, though I would note that while we are facing AZ at home, they are facing the Cubs at home.
Now the Giants start a tough road trip and stretch of games. First three at Philly, then three at St. Louis, the three at home against Dusty's Reds, and you know he's doubly motivated, it's a battle for a playoff spot and you know he would love to show up the Giants, particularly in SF (though his son, the cute guy who almost got run over when JT Snow scored in the World Series, still wants the Giants to draft him when he graduates from high school and can be drafted, I heard in a recent interview).
Game 1: Roy Oswalt vs. Zito
MLB Notes:
Giants: After giving up two solo homers in a no-decision against the Cubs, Zito now has surrendered at least one home run in five consecutive games (eight total homers). The last time that happened was June 20-July 11, 2004, while he was with Oakland.
Phillies: Oswalt had his best start for the Phillies on Wednesday against the Dodgers, allowing five hits and two walks in seven scoreless innings. He also struck out five in the 2-0 victory. Oswalt is now 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA in three starts with the Phillies.Boy, Oswalt can't catch a break, can he? He loses three to Lincecum, when Timmy going good, but while Timmy struggling, he gets Zito instead, who has been on a great stretch of dominance. Zito has had a 2.57 ERA in 6 starts since the ASB. Zito has pitched there once and had a shutout in 2007, when he was pretty putrid otherwise and the Phillies the strong offensive team it has been over the past few years. Have to call it even, and give the lean to Oswalt since he's pitching at home. Should be a good battle, hopefully the Giants can pull off another win, Oswalt is 0-3, 3.15 ERA this season against the Giants.
Game 2: Joe Blanton vs. Cain
Giants: Cain battled through a 31-pitch first inning in his last outing, pitching six innings while taking a no-decision against the Cubs. Despite Cain's high pitch count, he was effective in pounding the zone, as 82 of his 121 pitches were strikes.
Phillies: Blanton continued his trend of putting the Phillies in an early hole Thursday against Los Angeles. He allowed four singles and two walks in the first inning to hand the Dodgers a 3-0 lead. Blanton has an 8.53 ERA in the first inning this season.
Blanton has been struggling all season while Cain has not. Should be a Giants win.
Game 3: Cole Hamels vs. Sanchez
Giants: In his last outing, Sanchez came up short in his guarantee the Giants would sweep the Padres, as the lefty allowed three runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings. Sanchez is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in eight games (four starts) against the Phillies.
Phillies: Hamels is 1-2 with a 1.81 ERA in his last seven starts, and 5-7 with a 2.85 ERA in 19 starts since April. But the Phillies continue to give him no run support. He has lost his last two starts by 1-0. He hopes for a better showing Thursday.
For the rest of the season, Sanchez needs to put up or shut up. Hamels is clearly going good, so Sanchez will need his A-game as this game could be the rubber match for the series win, unless Zito can pull off a win against Oswalt. Still, Sanchez did very well in his one start against the Phillies in 2009, 1 run in 6 IP, 8 K, 3 BB, so while I would give Hamels the lean in a tight battle, don't be surprised if Sanchez handles the Phillies well, as they struggle relatively against LHP, and especially against starters.
| Split | G | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | BAbip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as RHB | 117 | .269 | .325 | .410 | .735 | .307 |
| vs RHP as LHB | 115 | .254 | .329 | .423 | .752 | .273 |
| vs LHP as RHB | 85 | .271 | .343 | .395 | .737 | .312 |
| vs LHP as LHB | 95 | .236 | .313 | .422 | .735 | .271 |
| vs RHP | 232 | .260 | .328 | .417 | .745 | .288 |
| vs LHP | 180 | .259 | .332 | .404 | .736 | .299 |
| as RHB | 202 | .270 | .332 | .404 | .736 | .309 |
| as LHB | 210 | .250 | .326 | .423 | .749 | .273 |
| vs LH Starter | 428 | .251 | .325 | .394 | .720 | .291 |
| vs RH Starter | 1158 | .263 | .330 | .421 | .751 | .291 |
Giants Thoughts
I blame the Giants showing against the 'Dres on Sanchez's head. The series would have been hard enough if he didn't put the target on the team's back. And he couldn't even back up his own words, with his start. He did what he was suppose to do, keep the team close, but he immediately gave up the 2 run lead that the team gave him in the first inning and took the sails out of the Giants offense. Maybe if he didn't do that, Rowand would not have thought some play was on and got picked off at the bottom of the second.
Still, 4.0 games back of the division leader with 7 weeks to go and tied for the Wild Card lead is not a terrible position to be in. I would have loved a series win (or even sweep), but this isn't the end of the world situation, just sub-optimal results, given the tough next nine games vs. Phils, Cards, and Reds while SD faces the Cubs, Brewers and D-backs.
The good news is that we got two lefties against Phils, who have not done well when up against LHP, plus they are missing Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, their two best hitters, though the reports that that Utley will rejoin the team today, albeit at less than 100% and Howard can come off any day now, but might wait until Thursday to do that - good, less offense they have the better. And the Giants get to face Blanton, he of 4.91 ERA at home this season. And a major key for the series, and really, the rest of the season, is the re-emergence of the Kung Fu Panda, he will have to continue his resurgence if we are to keep pace with the leaders. So the Giants at least have a fighting chance to win this series, and an outside chance of sweeping, particularly with Sandoval and Posey heating up, with both homering in recent games, but we are probably just as likely to lose the series as well. It will be a tough battle: I can't wait!
Go Giants!
Still, 4.0 games back of the division leader with 7 weeks to go and tied for the Wild Card lead is not a terrible position to be in. I would have loved a series win (or even sweep), but this isn't the end of the world situation, just sub-optimal results, given the tough next nine games vs. Phils, Cards, and Reds while SD faces the Cubs, Brewers and D-backs.
And, despite missing their two top offensive weapons, the Phillies have gone 10-3 in the past two weeks or so, while they have been out, and we are playing them at home, so it will be tough to win the series unless guys step up. This is the thrill of the playoff chase and the pressure is on. This is good for our players to experience but some will falter as they try to do more when doing what they were doing before would have been enough.
Playoff Ready
That's a key thing we don't know about our team right now, we don't know if they are playoff ready. We can take some clues, like Posey's steadiness in the face of everything, but for the most part, we don't really know what's under the hood for most players, for many of them never really competed at the highest levels before. At least Posey has been in the College World Series plus playoffs in the minors, but they are just practice for the majors, not the majors.
There is a great article today by Andy Baggarly on Aubrey Huff and his evolution into Huff Daddy that happened while he was in college with his good buddy Pat Burrell. The team has to become more like Burrell:
That is an area that I was hoping DeRosa could contribute but his injury took him out of that equation. Rowand was suppose to supply some of this, but he's clearly not the gamer he was made out to be. Renteria appears to have some of this, but injuries took him out as well. So Burrell falling into our lap like this has been a blessing, not only for the offense he has provided, but the veteran savviness and true gamer attitude that he possesses. I'm beginning to think "what if we re-sign him?" even though that probably means that Schierholtz won't ever get a chance to start for us in RF.
Silver Lining
Playoff Ready
That's a key thing we don't know about our team right now, we don't know if they are playoff ready. We can take some clues, like Posey's steadiness in the face of everything, but for the most part, we don't really know what's under the hood for most players, for many of them never really competed at the highest levels before. At least Posey has been in the College World Series plus playoffs in the minors, but they are just practice for the majors, not the majors.
There is a great article today by Andy Baggarly on Aubrey Huff and his evolution into Huff Daddy that happened while he was in college with his good buddy Pat Burrell. The team has to become more like Burrell:
"Pat's the guy who tells you what you need to hear, even when you don't want to hear it," Huff said. "He's mentally strong. He went through all the boos in Philly, and when he went back to get his ring, they gave him a standing ovation. It made him tear up, after going through all that."
Burrell's pennant race experience isn't just rubbing off on the Giants' young players. He's also a compass for veterans such as Huff and Freddy Sanchez, who have played for losing teams their whole career.
After a game at Dodger Stadium last month, Burrell and Huff stayed in the clubhouse and talked for almost two hours.
"He was briefing me on it, how it's going to be," Huff said. "He said, 'It's a different animal, bro. You may think you're ready, but you might be shocked. It's the same game, the same teams. You just have to slow it down.' "
That is an area that I was hoping DeRosa could contribute but his injury took him out of that equation. Rowand was suppose to supply some of this, but he's clearly not the gamer he was made out to be. Renteria appears to have some of this, but injuries took him out as well. So Burrell falling into our lap like this has been a blessing, not only for the offense he has provided, but the veteran savviness and true gamer attitude that he possesses. I'm beginning to think "what if we re-sign him?" even though that probably means that Schierholtz won't ever get a chance to start for us in RF.
Silver Lining
Go Giants!
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