{Note: I started this on July 24th, and though most of it was done, I forgot about it, and just finished it today. Of course, the trade deadline is now way in the past, so I added the addendum, as well as tweaked some, as I am wont to do}
I received an email on July 24th from the SF Standard, and the writer described their view of what the Giants have gone through from the end of Evans’ tenure as GM, to Zaidi and finally to Posey. I will quote here since not everyone gets this:
This is a franchise that desperately needs to start over.
The Giants consider “rebuild” a dirty word, but their atrocious play demands they consider a process they’ve scoffed at.
It’s time to abandon the typical offseason approach of signing veteran free agents to fill every roster hole. From Bobby Evans to Farhan Zaidi to Posey, it’s clear that regardless of which executive is calling the shots, those free-agent signings have created even more problems.
The last time the Giants had such a clear chance to rebuild, they ignored the opportunity. After a 98-loss 2017 season, Evans traded for Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, signed Austin Jackson, and insisted they could compete for an NL West crown while staying under MLB’s luxury tax threshold.
An 89-loss season cost Evans his job and ushered in the Zaidi era.
If the Giants are serious about building a contender again, the team’s next few offseasons should look a lot like Zaidi’s first.
Entering 2019, the Giants signed switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, re-signed lefty Derek Holland, and added another southpaw, Drew Pomeranz, on a one-year contract. They also made a series of waiver claims, minor-league trades, and minor moves that were so difficult to keep track of that fans grew furious.
The most important part of Zaidi’s first offseason: He didn’t acquire anyone who blocked an emerging prospect from securing meaningful opportunities with the Giants’ major-league club.
The only issue? The Giants didn’t really have any emerging prospects.
Trade acquisition Mike Yastrzemskidebuted in May and 2014 draftee Logan Webb arrived in August, but the farm system was so underwhelming that clearing the way for young talent didn’t lead to much of a long-term payoff.
The opposite is true now. Signing more Tyler Mahles, Adrian Housers, and Harrison Baders will block the path for a pipeline that features more promising prospects. And it’s a group that should only grow stronger when the Giants start dealing away veterans before the Aug. 3 deadline.
The Giants’ performance demands drastic action. The focus must shift from the present to the future and from identifying major leaguers who can help now to minor leaguers who can help eventually. The face of the franchise, Bryce Eldridge, isn’t going anywhere, but everyone else is tradable.
If the Giants don’t rebuild now, they never will.
ogc thoughts
I wanted to address what I see differently from their view of what happened.
The Giants Will Never Do a Real Rebuild
First, rebuild is a dirty word for Giants ownership, considering how this ownership was conceived. The Giants were sold and moving to Tampa Bay. Every season where they lost in a substantial way, they lost the fan support, and attendance dwindled to the low hundred thousands, which doesn’t sustain an MLB team. The Giants need steady support from the fans, not high tide and low tide. And a true rebuild would cause years of low attendance, which is why the Giants have not said that they are going on a rebuild.
So, this ownership, which was spearheaded by Magowan and Baer (and for that, I’m forever grateful), came together at this crucial juncture to save the Giants for San Francisco. And the crucial problem to solve is how to ensure the Giants can sustain themselves in the long run, and stay in SF.
Part one of their solution was building their own park. Prior attempts to get public support failed, and so they worked out the business plans to enable the team to own the park. This also gave them a lot of land property as well to enable the second part of the plan: real estate development.
Real estate development as part two is where the Giants are ensuring the Giants can stay in SF indefinitely. The goal is to build a real estate cash flow machine that will throw off enough money to sustain the team when there are down years in attendance. But such a project, which only began in earnest after the ballpark was paid off just before 3 in 5, is a very long term project, taking many years, to build and to find long term tenants.
Meanwhile, the owners are scared of severe losses of attendance. Why? Because the Giants are not owned by one person, who becomes the pocketbook of the team. There are minority owners who do not want to shell out additional money when the team needs a cash infusion to do something. That hindered spending during the 2000’s period with Bonds, but as Magawan shared in interviews, they would spend as close to zero profits (how that is defined is unknown, but what’s most important here is the intention, I feel) in playoff seasons.
And that’s why rebuilding is a dirty word for the Giants. This is the condition for the Giants staying in SF, and a result of the lack of support before the owners were brought in, and the lack of public monies spent on the team. This is how the Giants stayed here instead of being in Tampa Bay.
Wrong View of Giants Strategy
Next is the view of Zaidi’s early tenure as leader. The writer noted the strategy of avoiding big contracts, and the lack of emerging prospects, mocking the strategy, due to this (“The only issue? …). I think the writer has the wrong idea of what the strategy was.
The following makes more sense to me, given my knowledge of baseball rebuilding cycles. The reason why the Giants avoided big contracts early on was not because they would block a prospect, but because they still had large contracts still on the books: Posey, Cueto, Smardzija, Melancon, Belt and Crawford. That part of his tenure was about burning these contracts off the books, so it would defeat this strategy by signing anyone to a long term contract.
The fact that the emerging prospects were few was another reason for the strategy of avoiding long term contracts. Big contracts like that are best signed when the team is on an upward trajectory. To do that you need to have a prospect you think could be the star you build around.
That’s why the Giants waited until after the 2022 season to sign a long term contract. At that point, as well as burning off all contracts, other than Crawford, it was looking like the Giants had Webb as one good player and Kyle Harrison was looking good as well. Unfortunately, Correa failed his physical and screwed that up. That was the only reason they signed Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto, because of Correa being let go.
Blocking Emerging Prospects
Now about the signings blocking prospects: Mahle, Houser, and Bader. None of them have a contract that blocks prospects. And there was nobody being blocked, none of the starting pitcher prospects were ready, and no center fielder either.
Moreover, this is what the Giants have been doing since Sabean was GM, signing players to provide a floor of production, but not so good that if the prospects take off, then the Giants can trade off (or let go of) the player they signed. Like in 2010, they picked up Bengie Molina and Todd Wellemeyer, “blocking” Posey and Bumgarner, but then they eventually traded Molina and released Wellemeyer.
Mahle is signed for $10M, Houser for two years, $22M, Bader for two years, $20.5M, but by the trade deadline, there was only a third of the season left. The contracts should not hinder the Giants trade possibilities.
Addendum: Post Trade Deadline
As we saw, Mahle was traded, no problem. Houser ended up being a bulk reliever, until the trades and injuries opened up spots in the starting rotation. He will not block any SP. And Bader had his run in with a firetruck, getting his injured foot run over, and he was suspended without pay for this season, and perhaps next. But, in any case, he’s not blocking anyone at the moment, and even if the Giants end up releasing him, it’s just lost money, not lost opportunities for a young player, which was the worry.
But, to the writer’s viewpoint, the Giants did as he hoped, the Giants had a massive sell off, including good roster pieces in Ramos and Miller, who could have been part of the future, as well as the players who would be free agents in the offseason, in Arraez, Ray and Mahle. Kilian was traded as well, and he was pitching well enough. It could be viewed as a rebuilding, so I’ll give him that.
But I stand by what I said, the Giants will not go through a real rebuild, trading away everyone except for Eldridge. They will, until they get the real estate machine primed and pumping out cash flow, avoid the word rebuild, to avoid poor attendance issues. And as Posey said during that period, Webb is not going anywhere.
Now that I’m thinking of it, that’s probably part of why Devers was acquired. He (and now including Eldridge, but at the time of the trade, unclear when Bryce would succeed in the majors) is going to be the main attractions in the near term, much like Bonds from 2005-2007, and the Giants were hoping they can develop their burgeoning farm system, and help the team take off competitively in the coming years, and build around him.
Reports were that Devers was shopped, but that’s also the due diligence that the Giants need to do, just in case someone is willing to give the Giants something they want more: great pitching. It’s like with Sabean and Toronto’s open offer of Alex Rios for Lincecum or Cain: Sabean said that the Giants were in no position not to see what they can get for these pitchers, but at the same time, the other team has to give the Giants equal value in return (ie Alex Rios sucks as a return, something the media didn’t know when some openly advocated for the trade). Likewise, doesn’t hurt to kick the tires on trading Devers, plus it hides their true intentions if they are serious about trading Adames or Chapman. If only one of them was being shopped, it would be more obvious who they want to get rid of, and feelings will be hurt.
I can see the Giants attempting to trade Chapman away. He is likely to be productive enough defensively for a team to take on most of his salary (probably have to include $5-10M per year) and if he’s healthy to start 2027, he can show teams that ability. However, he will be 35 YO in 2028, and the bulk of the prospects will likely reach peak competitiveness in 2030, when he’s in his last season at age 37. So the Giants could decide to trade him before the 2027 trade deadline (leaving 3+ contract years), and have Schmitt be the starting 3B.
Adames, unfortunately, has not been good enough to be truly tradeable. It appears that he will not be productive enough deep into his contract, unlike Chapman. Hopefully he can get over the back problems that hurt his 2026 season, and he can return to a semblance of what he was in 2025 for the Giants. If so, he should be adequate, as he would be 31 in 2027, and 33 in 2030. And as badly as he played in 2026, he was still a slightly above average SS at 1.7 bWAR, which is worth around $20M, vs the $27M AAV of his contract (though $31M in actual dollars from 2027-2031). He’s basically today’s Zito, not good enough for his contract, but a roughly average producing player.
Thinking about 2027, I can see a similar thing happening, with the Giants signing some possibly good, but reason why they are not getting the good contract, like Mahle, Houser, Bader.
Definitely with the starting rotation, there’s only Webb and Roupp, and Roupp has not been as steady good as he was last season. Houser will be battling for a spot, and likely win one. Then that is two spots for Tidwell, Wilkinson, Marquez, and others, to battle over.
But given all the OF prospects, plus Gilbert and Cox looking okay as platooning CF, I don’t think the Giants will sign a LF, unless it’s like an Arraez situation where they think they can flip him mid season, if he is blocking a prospect.
The bullpen is where we can see what the Giants intend for 2027. There is no closer nor settled set up relievers. If the Giants signs three good pitchers for all these roles, then they are likely serious about winning. If not, they are hoping that prospects take a step forward, and help to push for a playoff spot, and let the cards land where they may.
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