Seeing complaints about a variety of Giants players like Belt, Pence, Morse, when they, not that long before the complaints, were doing well, reminded me of how in baseball, you need to look beyond the current, look beyond the overall, look beyond the year. And I know I've been guilty of not taking a long enough look at a situation, though at some point you have to point out the bad stuff. I thought I would look at such a situation: Madison Bumgarner vs. Jason Heyward.
Showing posts with label 2007 Draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2007 Draft. Show all posts
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Belying the Lie: Giants Are Not Cheap in the Draft
The funny thing about us humans is that we all look at the facts that affirm your impression of the situation, just to reinforce that "we are right". I'm as guilty of it as anyone, that's why I try harder to get beyond that and test my beliefs. That is what led me to research the draft, because I too, like every other Giants fan, thought "what's wrong with the Giants drafting, why are they so lousy?" Turned out that winning and being one of the best teams in the majors greatly reduces your success rate developing players.
That brings me to today's grab bag of fun facts. Baseball America graciously make a number of their content available for free and one is their Ask BA column, to which I link here. In this one, they list (essentially) the final total for draft expenditures by club for 2008 and 2007. It is the total spending by each team for bonuses.
Now, most comments I've seen lately, after "the Neukom Way" was announced in his press conference, is that "finally" the Giants are focusing on player development, a feeling they have held onto, hard, since the Giants signed Michael Tucker to avoid a draft pick and use the money more productively in the short-term.
Giants Been Big Spenders
So it might surprise these hardy souls that the Giants have been among the biggest spenders on bonuses the past two drafts. In the 2008 draft, the Giants spent a little over $9M on bonuses, which would have been a record spend in the 2007 draft where $8M was the high bar. They were beat out by three of the teams who drafted ahead of them, Royals, Rays, and Pirates, and by the Red Sox, who shelled out Top 5-10 type money to draft picks later in the draft. The Giants were 5th overall in spending on bonuses, and could have been higher as they were pursuing hard a couple of prospects who ended up not signing, who were highly rated but fell for whatever reasons.
In the 2007 draft, with all their extra picks, they ended up 6th in spending with $7.4M spent. The teams ahead were the Rays, Orioles, Yankees, Nationals, and Tigers (not in that order, though all were roughly right around $8M spent, about $100K apart).
Over the two years, the Giants were third in spending on the draft, with $16.5M spent on bonuses for draft picks. The Rays were first with $17.9M and the Royals were second with $17.8M. The Red Sox took 4th with $15.4M spent. This all before the end of the Bonds era, all before the Giants Way.
Myth of Giants Cheapness
The Giants have never been cheap, either, the way some have described them. Some observers have said that the Giants "draft down", i.e. select prospects who they can sign for a cheaper amount, just because they have been in the habit of selecting players that other teams and the draft experts think should be drafted lower.
The biggest example of this I can think of was the selection of Nate Schierholtz. Experts were surprised he was drafted so high. Yet, he's the only one to make the majors out of the picks in the 2nd round after him and between him and the next Giants pick of Brian Buscher, the only ones to make more of an impact in the majors are Chris Ray and Ryan Garko, the other 27 have either not made the majors or not done much in the majors, either in AB or OPS. So the Giants appear to have made the right choice here.
In addition, I had researched this previously and the only year the Giants truly were cheap was in 2003 when they had two who were very underpaid relative to the draftees around him, and two who were slightly underpaid. Still, Schierholtz was paid over the amount paid to those following him, which is as expected.
And there were no first round pick who received a bonus that was lower than the average of what the guys behind him got. In fact, for both Lincecum and Bumgarner, they received bonuses that were above slot, and obviously Posey got way above slot. The Giants have been anything but cheap with their first round draft picks, particularly in the past few years.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Giants Had Best Draft in 2007
Carlos Gomez, whose articles I have been referencing for a while now and who has made a nice reputation for himself the past few years by analyzing the mechanics of pitchers and hitters, particularly those who are young hot prospects and also newly drafted prospects, recently came out with the DRAFTYs, his analysis of which prospects were the best in certain categories and which teams had the best draft in the 2007 draft.
Best Draft in 2007
As noted in the title, the Giants were rated as having the best draft in the 2007 Amateur Draft. Here is what he wrote:
He also rated Madison Bumgarner (10th overall) the 4th best pitcher in the draft, noting:
Rated as the third best pick in the draft was Nick Noonan, the 32nd pick overall, but he didn't say much other than:
Noonan was also rated the top favorite non-first round pick. Not sure how he is doing defensively in rookie ball right now, but he's been hitting really well, and for some power. Hopefully he will continue to do so.
Giants Thoughts
I don't know enough to compare our draft with other team's drafts, but I had heard a lot of good info on the players we did draft to at least think that we would be in the running for best draft. It is nice to know that one expert thinks that the Giants did well in this draft.
The Giants have been pretty productive in recent years, as most of their pitching staff is either supplied internally or traded for using farm products. Hopefully this will continue the nice streak the Giants have been on since drafting Lowry and Hennessey in the first round of the 2001 draft.
Thus the Giants have rebuilt about half their team over six years of drafts. For comparison, the Brewers, who people were pointing at as an example of how to do things, have rebuilt their team over a twelve year period, from when Geoff Jenkins was drafted.
I don't think the Giants will have to wait another six years to compete for a division title, like the Brewers have to get to competing in 2007. Despite the poor performances of the relief corp this year in terms of inherited runners, the pitching staff as a whole has been pretty stellar, with expected improvements now that Zito has apparently gotten over his big contract and Morris is gone with Misch, Correia, or Sanchez taking over, and I think they can match what he did for us this year overall. Plus, Brian Wilson and Tyler Walker look ready to perform well in 2008 and Hennessey is pitching like he wants to stay the closer. Despite all the harping on the bullpen, you don't need the whole bullpen to be Robb Nen's to win, you just need a good closer and setup guy and that should cover all you really need, everything else would be extra (and nice).
Sure, the offense is probably going to be sucky in 2008, even if Bonds do re-sign, but I think most of us already realized that 2008 is going to be a rebuilding year, a growth year for our pitching staff, as they mature and further develop (SIGN LINCECUM NOW! :^), and hopefully we will see a few position players push themselves into the starting equation for 2008/2009. Ortmeier is one I'm encouraged by - Merc compared him to Matt Holliday today. So is Davis, Lewis, and Schierholtz.
Best Draft in 2007
As noted in the title, the Giants were rated as having the best draft in the 2007 Amateur Draft. Here is what he wrote:
They wouldn't have been this high had they not landed Bumgarner. I like Bumgarner, Alderson, Fairley and Noonan. Culberson is not a bad pick either. Yeah, it helps that they had six out of the first 51 picks. They're taking risks here (they're all high-schoolers), but they're good risks.
He also rated Madison Bumgarner (10th overall) the 4th best pitcher in the draft, noting:
Big athletic lefty with good mechanics. There's a little work to do to tighten up his mechanics, but I'd trust the Giants on this one. I love this kid's potential.
Rated as the third best pick in the draft was Nick Noonan, the 32nd pick overall, but he didn't say much other than:
Needs to stick at short to be a real steal.
Noonan was also rated the top favorite non-first round pick. Not sure how he is doing defensively in rookie ball right now, but he's been hitting really well, and for some power. Hopefully he will continue to do so.
Giants Thoughts
I don't know enough to compare our draft with other team's drafts, but I had heard a lot of good info on the players we did draft to at least think that we would be in the running for best draft. It is nice to know that one expert thinks that the Giants did well in this draft.
The Giants have been pretty productive in recent years, as most of their pitching staff is either supplied internally or traded for using farm products. Hopefully this will continue the nice streak the Giants have been on since drafting Lowry and Hennessey in the first round of the 2001 draft.
Thus the Giants have rebuilt about half their team over six years of drafts. For comparison, the Brewers, who people were pointing at as an example of how to do things, have rebuilt their team over a twelve year period, from when Geoff Jenkins was drafted.
I don't think the Giants will have to wait another six years to compete for a division title, like the Brewers have to get to competing in 2007. Despite the poor performances of the relief corp this year in terms of inherited runners, the pitching staff as a whole has been pretty stellar, with expected improvements now that Zito has apparently gotten over his big contract and Morris is gone with Misch, Correia, or Sanchez taking over, and I think they can match what he did for us this year overall. Plus, Brian Wilson and Tyler Walker look ready to perform well in 2008 and Hennessey is pitching like he wants to stay the closer. Despite all the harping on the bullpen, you don't need the whole bullpen to be Robb Nen's to win, you just need a good closer and setup guy and that should cover all you really need, everything else would be extra (and nice).
Sure, the offense is probably going to be sucky in 2008, even if Bonds do re-sign, but I think most of us already realized that 2008 is going to be a rebuilding year, a growth year for our pitching staff, as they mature and further develop (SIGN LINCECUM NOW! :^), and hopefully we will see a few position players push themselves into the starting equation for 2008/2009. Ortmeier is one I'm encouraged by - Merc compared him to Matt Holliday today. So is Davis, Lewis, and Schierholtz.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
Bumgarner and Fairley Signs Officially; Bonds End Near?
{First, on a personal note, I've been laid off, so paradoxically, I will probably have less time to post items. I will do my best to, but I've never been laid off before so I'm not sure how I will react to this news plus there is the business of finding a new job. To those thinking it, :^) no, it was not because of my work performance due to spending so much time posting, but just the trouble you get when the sector you are in is retrenching a bit and they need to cut costs to raise margins. Anyway, I was busy dealing with that, so hence this is a bit of old news plus as the title notes, some new speculation on my part.}
Final Signings
As this report notes, Madison Bumgarner and Wendell Fairley signed. All the hang-wringing and angst at all the public Giants watering holes were all for naught, other than to show who supports Sabean and who doesn't. As I noted all along, they were not going to hold out. They weren't that good, frankly, to turn down a sure $1-2M. Even if it don't work out, you go to college afterward and you'll still have that money (post-tax natch!).
They got about as much money as I suspected. They probably wanted the symbolic nature of "$1M!" and "2M!", hence why Alderson signed earlier than they did. Meanwhile Sabean did his job and waited them out to see how badly they wanted that figure.
Deadline Was Meant to Be
As I was thinking about this recently, I figured that the dynamics of the situation forced this to happen:
1. There are clear slots for everyone, so you can do nothing and insist on slot and probably get around there, depending on the team.
2. Each player has an agent, so to justify his fee, he has to drag on out the negotiations, to make it seem like the player got his money's worth - else why get an agent, just sign for slot and be done with it.
3. The GMs have an incentive to drag things out as well, they have to appear to their owners that they are locking horns with the agents and trying their best to get lower than slot from the players.
Those all add up to a lot of players signing at the last moment.
It's like I've been saying elsewhere: you just won the lottery and been picked in the first round. You are guaranteed at least $1M, maybe a lot more.
However, you can drop dead tomorrow, or your arm could fall off, or you could sleep wrong and suddenly your mechanics are off, or your lucky charm broke, and you won't get drafted that high next year, unless you are clearly that good and can show it like JD Drew and Luke Hochvear did in independent league. But still, the LF could run into you and injure you: suddenly you are out of the game and your career. But at least you got your $1M+ by signing.
Now hopefully they can go out and impress over a short period of time.
Bonds End Near?
The Merc noted that the Giants were going to sit Roberts more in order to play Rajai Davis more. Roberts was understanding but made it known that he wants to play. How does this affect Barry?
The problem is that with Barry and Roberts, we have two players who shouldn't/couldn't play every day, requiring more OF on the bench. Barry is too old, so he needs his rest, while Roberts should be platooned (.772 vs RHP, .463 vs. LHP in 2007) with a right-handed hitter. If Rajai shows enough to start, the Giants might just move Roberts to LF, where he is an above average fielder, and play Davis in CF, with, say, Ortmeier taking up the ABs against LHP (though he hasn't been that good against them either, but at least would be getting regular ABs). That would mean no Bonds in 2008.
And I'm beginning to go there as well. I understand he is old and creaky, but at some point, even if he's still the hitter he is, we have to move on, even though we would take a big offensive hit. If 2008 is to be a rebuilding year, it doesn't make sense to sign Barry at big bucks, it would only make sense to sign a great free agent player who can play everyday, unlike Barry. But I don't think there is anyone coming free after 2008 who qualifies. So perhaps if Barry can accept lower bucks, then he should be signed on.
But this depends on the widow owner, Harmon, she was the one who pushed to re-sign Bonds this year, and it could happen again in 2008, perhaps if Barry promises to retire as a Giants after the season ends. So it could just be that Davis is just auditioning to become Roberts platoon buddy in 2008, with hopes of starting in 2009.
Final Signings
As this report notes, Madison Bumgarner and Wendell Fairley signed. All the hang-wringing and angst at all the public Giants watering holes were all for naught, other than to show who supports Sabean and who doesn't. As I noted all along, they were not going to hold out. They weren't that good, frankly, to turn down a sure $1-2M. Even if it don't work out, you go to college afterward and you'll still have that money (post-tax natch!).
They got about as much money as I suspected. They probably wanted the symbolic nature of "$1M!" and "2M!", hence why Alderson signed earlier than they did. Meanwhile Sabean did his job and waited them out to see how badly they wanted that figure.
Deadline Was Meant to Be
As I was thinking about this recently, I figured that the dynamics of the situation forced this to happen:
1. There are clear slots for everyone, so you can do nothing and insist on slot and probably get around there, depending on the team.
2. Each player has an agent, so to justify his fee, he has to drag on out the negotiations, to make it seem like the player got his money's worth - else why get an agent, just sign for slot and be done with it.
3. The GMs have an incentive to drag things out as well, they have to appear to their owners that they are locking horns with the agents and trying their best to get lower than slot from the players.
Those all add up to a lot of players signing at the last moment.
It's like I've been saying elsewhere: you just won the lottery and been picked in the first round. You are guaranteed at least $1M, maybe a lot more.
However, you can drop dead tomorrow, or your arm could fall off, or you could sleep wrong and suddenly your mechanics are off, or your lucky charm broke, and you won't get drafted that high next year, unless you are clearly that good and can show it like JD Drew and Luke Hochvear did in independent league. But still, the LF could run into you and injure you: suddenly you are out of the game and your career. But at least you got your $1M+ by signing.
Now hopefully they can go out and impress over a short period of time.
Bonds End Near?
The Merc noted that the Giants were going to sit Roberts more in order to play Rajai Davis more. Roberts was understanding but made it known that he wants to play. How does this affect Barry?
The problem is that with Barry and Roberts, we have two players who shouldn't/couldn't play every day, requiring more OF on the bench. Barry is too old, so he needs his rest, while Roberts should be platooned (.772 vs RHP, .463 vs. LHP in 2007) with a right-handed hitter. If Rajai shows enough to start, the Giants might just move Roberts to LF, where he is an above average fielder, and play Davis in CF, with, say, Ortmeier taking up the ABs against LHP (though he hasn't been that good against them either, but at least would be getting regular ABs). That would mean no Bonds in 2008.
And I'm beginning to go there as well. I understand he is old and creaky, but at some point, even if he's still the hitter he is, we have to move on, even though we would take a big offensive hit. If 2008 is to be a rebuilding year, it doesn't make sense to sign Barry at big bucks, it would only make sense to sign a great free agent player who can play everyday, unlike Barry. But I don't think there is anyone coming free after 2008 who qualifies. So perhaps if Barry can accept lower bucks, then he should be signed on.
But this depends on the widow owner, Harmon, she was the one who pushed to re-sign Bonds this year, and it could happen again in 2008, perhaps if Barry promises to retire as a Giants after the season ends. So it could just be that Davis is just auditioning to become Roberts platoon buddy in 2008, with hopes of starting in 2009.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Fairley Signs!
As someone kindly posted in a comment, Wendell Fairley signed today; here is the Baseball America notice. He signed for $1M, or $10,000 above the slot of $990,000. I don't know if I mentioned it in a post or comment, but I thought that $1M was going to be the magic number for Fairley because of the significance of that figure. I assume he also gets the package the other high schoolers got, about $100K for college if they decide to go at some point.
As mentioned in another Baseball America report, and by Chris of Bay City Ball in a comment, it appears that Madison Bumgarner negotiating position is demanding Clayton Kershaw money, the $2.3M that last year's top high school lefty got from the D-gers as their #7 pick. As we all know, you ask for more than you hope to get in negotiations, so I have to assume that Bumgarner's representation is hoping to get the money that Tim Lincecum got last year, which was $2.025M, which is higher than the slot money of $1.8M that this link says is his slot figure.
Giants Thoughts
While the BA report views Bumgarner as the most difficult to sign of the remaining first round picks, I think that the deal will be done because the Giants went over what they could have paid Lincecum last year as well. Based on the bonuses paid around him last year, Lincecum should have gotten only $1.8M, but he ended up getting the money that the #8 pick got with his $2.025M bonus. In addition, from my analysis of prior bonus signings, the Giants have always been generous with their first round picks and appeared to pay more than other teams were paying draftees around them.
So I have to think that the Giants will shell out the extra $225K to match Lincecum's bonus and sign Bumgarner. They could also be waiting until the Tigers report that Porcello is signed way over cap so that their piddly $225K over is a pittance in comparison. Or just do the signing tomorrow so that the announcement gets lost among all the other signings that are much more over the slot, as all the Top 5 picks will get much more publicity for their signing than our #10 would.
In addition, Bumgarner was not expected to go so high in the draft, most had him falling to the middle of the round, so if he misses out on this pick, he might not be so lucky in the next draft, particularly if he should do poorly at the community college, he risks falling to the back of the round next year with a poor performance. So it is possible that he could sign for less than the $225K extra, he might accept less, or maybe the Giants don't give him the money for college and put that into the bonus instead.
I understand the symbolic importance of $1M but Fairley probably lost much of that extra $10K in minor league salary lost from not playing for the past month and a half. And incalcuable experience. Emmanuel Burris really made a name for himself by signing early and playing well, persuading the Giants to jump him all the way up to Advanced A San Jose. Unfortunately he wasn't ready so he got dropped back to Class A Augusta, but Fairley could have done something this season to get considered for a higher class next season, but will probably just start out low now and see where that leads him.
In addition, the sooner you are in the pros, assuming you are confident of your abilities, the sooner you reach the majors and earn the $380K minimum, or whatever that is now. $10K is about a half weeks pay at the major league level. So he lost both monetarily and professionally by holding out until now.
But no matter, as Wendell Fairley noted minutes after being selected by the Giants: "[he's] a Giant now." Hopefully he can get some games in somewhere in the farm system in the final two weeks and get a taste, and be ready next season to move through the system. He will probably play in Instructional League, which is where Ishikawa first got his power noticed, so he will get a chance there to shine.
He and Villalona are our best chances right now for good position prospects and they are both at least 3 and most probably 5 or more years away from the majors. Hopefully Fairley can get a good running start going next season since he's missed out on this season. He would have to really dominate in the next two weeks to get pushed up for next season.
As mentioned in another Baseball America report, and by Chris of Bay City Ball in a comment, it appears that Madison Bumgarner negotiating position is demanding Clayton Kershaw money, the $2.3M that last year's top high school lefty got from the D-gers as their #7 pick. As we all know, you ask for more than you hope to get in negotiations, so I have to assume that Bumgarner's representation is hoping to get the money that Tim Lincecum got last year, which was $2.025M, which is higher than the slot money of $1.8M that this link says is his slot figure.
Giants Thoughts
While the BA report views Bumgarner as the most difficult to sign of the remaining first round picks, I think that the deal will be done because the Giants went over what they could have paid Lincecum last year as well. Based on the bonuses paid around him last year, Lincecum should have gotten only $1.8M, but he ended up getting the money that the #8 pick got with his $2.025M bonus. In addition, from my analysis of prior bonus signings, the Giants have always been generous with their first round picks and appeared to pay more than other teams were paying draftees around them.
So I have to think that the Giants will shell out the extra $225K to match Lincecum's bonus and sign Bumgarner. They could also be waiting until the Tigers report that Porcello is signed way over cap so that their piddly $225K over is a pittance in comparison. Or just do the signing tomorrow so that the announcement gets lost among all the other signings that are much more over the slot, as all the Top 5 picks will get much more publicity for their signing than our #10 would.
In addition, Bumgarner was not expected to go so high in the draft, most had him falling to the middle of the round, so if he misses out on this pick, he might not be so lucky in the next draft, particularly if he should do poorly at the community college, he risks falling to the back of the round next year with a poor performance. So it is possible that he could sign for less than the $225K extra, he might accept less, or maybe the Giants don't give him the money for college and put that into the bonus instead.
I understand the symbolic importance of $1M but Fairley probably lost much of that extra $10K in minor league salary lost from not playing for the past month and a half. And incalcuable experience. Emmanuel Burris really made a name for himself by signing early and playing well, persuading the Giants to jump him all the way up to Advanced A San Jose. Unfortunately he wasn't ready so he got dropped back to Class A Augusta, but Fairley could have done something this season to get considered for a higher class next season, but will probably just start out low now and see where that leads him.
In addition, the sooner you are in the pros, assuming you are confident of your abilities, the sooner you reach the majors and earn the $380K minimum, or whatever that is now. $10K is about a half weeks pay at the major league level. So he lost both monetarily and professionally by holding out until now.
But no matter, as Wendell Fairley noted minutes after being selected by the Giants: "[he's] a Giant now." Hopefully he can get some games in somewhere in the farm system in the final two weeks and get a taste, and be ready next season to move through the system. He will probably play in Instructional League, which is where Ishikawa first got his power noticed, so he will get a chance there to shine.
He and Villalona are our best chances right now for good position prospects and they are both at least 3 and most probably 5 or more years away from the majors. Hopefully Fairley can get a good running start going next season since he's missed out on this season. He would have to really dominate in the next two weeks to get pushed up for next season.
Tuesday, August 07, 2007
2007 Draft Round One Unsignings
Given that the Giants have two Round One draft picks unsigned - Bumgarner and Fairley - I thought I would report on rumors on other picks.
Boras Is Playing Hardball
He doesn't apply to us but he is the agent for a number of players still unsigned. Here are his unsigned prospects: Mike Moustakas, Matt Weiters, Rick Porcello, Andrew Brackman, Julio Borbon, Josh Fields, Matt Harvey, Jake Arrieta, and Kantrail Davis.
He appears to be playing by fear. I have seen two recent reports on his negotiating tactics with #2 overall Mike Moustakas and third-rounder Matt Harvey: the teams have made several tries at communications but there has been no or virtually no communication between the teams and their picks. "They've had absolutely no interest in talking to us."
Giants Thoughts
Perhaps that's what is delaying negotiations with Bumgarner and Fairley, their agents are following Boras's lead and waiting until the last minute to negotiate. It is not like Bumgarner is affected much by Boras's players, only Wieters is near him in the draft, at #5, but Madison is all the way back at #10. He is probably more affected by the fact that the guy ahead of him and the two after are unsigned as well plus another one two after that in Heyward.
Fairley is affected by Porcello two ahead of him, and Brackman right behind him. Plus the next guy, Smoker is unsigned as well and Revere signed for low money ahead of him. But still, averaging out the players signed ahead and behind him, he should be getting around $1.05M, so what is the hangup, does he want Top 15 money?
Boras Is Playing Hardball
He doesn't apply to us but he is the agent for a number of players still unsigned. Here are his unsigned prospects: Mike Moustakas, Matt Weiters, Rick Porcello, Andrew Brackman, Julio Borbon, Josh Fields, Matt Harvey, Jake Arrieta, and Kantrail Davis.
He appears to be playing by fear. I have seen two recent reports on his negotiating tactics with #2 overall Mike Moustakas and third-rounder Matt Harvey: the teams have made several tries at communications but there has been no or virtually no communication between the teams and their picks. "They've had absolutely no interest in talking to us."
Giants Thoughts
Perhaps that's what is delaying negotiations with Bumgarner and Fairley, their agents are following Boras's lead and waiting until the last minute to negotiate. It is not like Bumgarner is affected much by Boras's players, only Wieters is near him in the draft, at #5, but Madison is all the way back at #10. He is probably more affected by the fact that the guy ahead of him and the two after are unsigned as well plus another one two after that in Heyward.
Fairley is affected by Porcello two ahead of him, and Brackman right behind him. Plus the next guy, Smoker is unsigned as well and Revere signed for low money ahead of him. But still, averaging out the players signed ahead and behind him, he should be getting around $1.05M, so what is the hangup, does he want Top 15 money?
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
2007 Draft Signings: Latest Report
The Giants announced the signing of nine more players from their 2007 draft Monday at their website. As I was alerted to by allfrank last week, Tim Alderson signed, along with a number of other draftees. The Giants also signed LHP Joseph Patterson; RHP Chance Corgan, Kyle Nicholson, and Daniel Turpen; infielders Ramon Corona, Andrew D'Alessio, Josh Lopez and Evan McArthur.
In total, the Giants have signed 22 of their first 24 draft picks (obviously, Bumgarner and Fairley are the last two not to sign) and a total of 40 draftees. They had drafted a total of 50 players, so that is an almost complete haul of their draft picks. If I recall right, they typically sign 40-45 each year, so that's right on target, but this is the first time I recall them signing all of the players in the first 19 rounds or so. There is usually someone between 5 and 15 who doesn't sign, if I recall right.
As I had noted in a previous post before, the signings are much slower this year as the slots were down 10% over last year. And both Bumgarner and Fairley either have a lot of neighboring picks who have not signed yet or who signed for a below slot amount, and they appear to be waiting out the process, probably to see if they can get an amount closer to last year's slot, much like Lincecum last year, who was one of the later to sign but got more money from the Giants than the picks around him, on a relative basis. I've also heard the rumor that Selig asked teams to delay announcement of signings for players who signed above slot. I think they will sign by the end of the month, as that leaves them about a month to play professionally, enough to give them a good taste of being a professional.
Which brings me to Andrew D'Alessio. His signing was just announced. But according to the stats for the Arizona Rookie League, he has been in 21 games already, almost as much as Nick Noonan, who signed long ago and has played 24 games. And he is doing very well, thank you. The firstbaseman is hitting .274/.344/.548/.892 with 6 homers in 84 AB, with 9 BB/18K, which is OK, but not great. I had read somewhere that D'Alessio was a steal as he is a good hitter. Thus far, he has done very well but, still, it is rookie league, so it will be interesting to see if he gets to see some action at Salem-Keizer soon.
Among these named signings, there were a few other who have played and have stats. Josh Lopez has already gotten into 9 games himself and Daniel Turpen has pitched in 3 games. There is also a Joseph Paterson on the team; assuming it is the same guy, he's doing well in 3 games, 4 IP, nothing but 6 K's.
I think I had noted before that Noonan has been doing well in rookie league but Culberson has not, thus far, but I don't think I mentioned that Jackson Williams, our 5th pick, has been playing at Salem-Keizer and hitting .217/.345/.406/.751 with 4 HR in 69 AB, with 10 BB and 13K's. Those are pretty good and bode well that the .217 BA is a fluke, as that works out to a BABIP of .212 and most hitters have around .300, though that is not a given, as most hitters have a personal level of BABIP that they regress to a mean of. So there is the chance that the .212 is his career level. However, 10 BB is a lot and 13 K's is a pretty good amount to have with 69 AB, that puts his contact rate in the low 80's, which is good.
In total, the Giants have signed 22 of their first 24 draft picks (obviously, Bumgarner and Fairley are the last two not to sign) and a total of 40 draftees. They had drafted a total of 50 players, so that is an almost complete haul of their draft picks. If I recall right, they typically sign 40-45 each year, so that's right on target, but this is the first time I recall them signing all of the players in the first 19 rounds or so. There is usually someone between 5 and 15 who doesn't sign, if I recall right.
As I had noted in a previous post before, the signings are much slower this year as the slots were down 10% over last year. And both Bumgarner and Fairley either have a lot of neighboring picks who have not signed yet or who signed for a below slot amount, and they appear to be waiting out the process, probably to see if they can get an amount closer to last year's slot, much like Lincecum last year, who was one of the later to sign but got more money from the Giants than the picks around him, on a relative basis. I've also heard the rumor that Selig asked teams to delay announcement of signings for players who signed above slot. I think they will sign by the end of the month, as that leaves them about a month to play professionally, enough to give them a good taste of being a professional.
Which brings me to Andrew D'Alessio. His signing was just announced. But according to the stats for the Arizona Rookie League, he has been in 21 games already, almost as much as Nick Noonan, who signed long ago and has played 24 games. And he is doing very well, thank you. The firstbaseman is hitting .274/.344/.548/.892 with 6 homers in 84 AB, with 9 BB/18K, which is OK, but not great. I had read somewhere that D'Alessio was a steal as he is a good hitter. Thus far, he has done very well but, still, it is rookie league, so it will be interesting to see if he gets to see some action at Salem-Keizer soon.
Among these named signings, there were a few other who have played and have stats. Josh Lopez has already gotten into 9 games himself and Daniel Turpen has pitched in 3 games. There is also a Joseph Paterson on the team; assuming it is the same guy, he's doing well in 3 games, 4 IP, nothing but 6 K's.
I think I had noted before that Noonan has been doing well in rookie league but Culberson has not, thus far, but I don't think I mentioned that Jackson Williams, our 5th pick, has been playing at Salem-Keizer and hitting .217/.345/.406/.751 with 4 HR in 69 AB, with 10 BB and 13K's. Those are pretty good and bode well that the .217 BA is a fluke, as that works out to a BABIP of .212 and most hitters have around .300, though that is not a given, as most hitters have a personal level of BABIP that they regress to a mean of. So there is the chance that the .212 is his career level. However, 10 BB is a lot and 13 K's is a pretty good amount to have with 69 AB, that puts his contact rate in the low 80's, which is good.
Friday, July 20, 2007
Tim Alderson Signed
Allfrank kindly commented that Alderson signed. Here is an article I found in East Valley Tribune. He signed for slot money, about $1.3M, since all the picks around him signed already and that's about where he would fit in. He is headed to the Arizona Giants rookie league on Monday, then would head for Salem-Keizer short season A-ball if he does well in the rookie league. I don't see how he doesn't with his remarkable control but you never know.
He hasn't been pitching, just working out, while waiting/negotiating, so he is eager to start pitching again. I guess he stopped pitching so as not to endanger his arm before signing. That would be smart.
As I had noted in a post or comment when asked whether he or Bumgarner was going to sign, he stated his conflicting feelings once Oregon (he signed with them) won the World Series, "It just looked so cool. (But) I wasn't going to turn the money down." Would take some balls to turn down over $1M, which seems to end up being Boras clients.
I would understand holding out for more money once you establish your major league value, but if you are young, 18, 21, and you can get $1M or more to play baseball, I cannot understand why any first round draftee is ever unsigned, as he risks injuring himself before signing a contract plus you are delaying your chances of becoming a major leaguer. I know some have done that, I just don't understand it. But, se la vie, that's their life, their choices, if that money is more important than starting their professional baseball career, they have that right and responsibility to not sign until he gets what he wants.
He hasn't been pitching, just working out, while waiting/negotiating, so he is eager to start pitching again. I guess he stopped pitching so as not to endanger his arm before signing. That would be smart.
As I had noted in a post or comment when asked whether he or Bumgarner was going to sign, he stated his conflicting feelings once Oregon (he signed with them) won the World Series, "It just looked so cool. (But) I wasn't going to turn the money down." Would take some balls to turn down over $1M, which seems to end up being Boras clients.
I would understand holding out for more money once you establish your major league value, but if you are young, 18, 21, and you can get $1M or more to play baseball, I cannot understand why any first round draftee is ever unsigned, as he risks injuring himself before signing a contract plus you are delaying your chances of becoming a major leaguer. I know some have done that, I just don't understand it. But, se la vie, that's their life, their choices, if that money is more important than starting their professional baseball career, they have that right and responsibility to not sign until he gets what he wants.
Monday, June 11, 2007
Giants Draft Pick 6: Post-Draft Interview Transcription
On MLB.com or sfgiants.com, there is a replay of interviews with Dick Tidrow, Brian Sabean, and two of our draft picks, Tim Alderson and Wendell Fairley. Unfortunately, the sound quality is worse than that of teenagers taping their fake TV interview show in their parent's basement and is pretty amateurish - you can hear some of the sound engineers in the background stepping on the speakers. I did my best to write down what was said, just know that the following is incomplete because of the problems I noted. And they just spliced everything together into one long audio, so the respondents jump around a lot.
Q: Tell us about your two high school pitchers.
Tidrow: Bumgarner is a big strong, power lefty. Good breaking pitch, excellent command, he's going to be a fast mover, he's on the fast track. Has a power curve. Fairley is a 5 tool prospect, power, speed, CF. Noonan is a fast lefty, see him at 2B. Williams is an excellent defensive catcher, he's going to be a big league starter. Culberson we see as a 3B/2B combo, he has a good bat. Chase Corrigan, college pitcher, good curve, FB command, very athletic, lots of innings thrown.
Q: (Sound problems with previous response prompts Tidrow to talk about Alderson; remember this is not verbatim stuff, just my scratch notes off a lousy recording plus my memory on some stuff)
Tidrow: Alderson has a clean arm, throws harder, stronger, has good command, he's going to be a starter, not a reliever.
Q: Other pick's skills that come to mind?
Tidrow: (Noise cuts off name of prospect) has an excellent swing, good speed, will play middle infield, SS or 2B (Noonan? Does not sound like Culberson). Williams great skills at catcher, best in draft for defense.
Q: Why #10?
Sabean: Size, strength, development, track record, athletic development.
Q: Lots of high school players, will this take patience?
Sabean: Giants got talent across the board, diverse group, got the guys we wanted at each pick.
Q: Did you plan to pick so many high schoolers?
Sabean: With so many high school talents, we had to be ready and prepared to pick them.
Q: Fairley's tools?
Sabean: Speed, power, raw power, really can run, throw, 5 tools now, the Giants need to develop them.
Q: When will they play?
Sabean: Will play once signed, either Salem-Keizer or Arizona. If possible, want to send them to Salem.
Q: So the Giants got who they wanted at #10?
Tidrow: Giants targeted him and another pitcher. He's a lefty, big, strong, power, and can locate his pitches. In 1-2 years, he'll be ready for the MLB.
Q: Any concerns about Alderson's stretch delivery?
Tidrow: No concern.
Q: Talk about your pitching motion.
Alderson: I can repeat the motion and have a good feel for it. I am comfortable with it, it is natural and easy to do. I just want to keep things simple. I compare myself with Francisco Rodriguez.
Q: question on baseball draft.
Sabean/Tidrow (don't remember): to develop a player it takes 1200-1500 ABs, 500-1000 IP
Q: Bumgarner's secondary pitches?
S/T: Sweeping curve, cutter, bread and butter is his fastball away though.
Q: Comparable to Cain, another high school pick?
S/T: First year, we just make sure the pitcher is healthy. Both Bumgarner and Alderson are on the fast track to the majors. They have size, ability, and command.
Q: Was Boras a factor?
Sabean: We select talent first, signability and agent concerns second.
Q: Size?
Fairley: 6'2"
Q: Two sport player, is baseball new to you?
Fairley: Baseball is my main sport, the one I'm best at.
Q: Some have compared you to Carl Crawford, what do you think of that?
Fairley: I'm just coming out of high school (poor sound cuts some of the response)
Q: What skills do you need to work on?
Fairley: Sir, I play the field good, run; maybe hit for power is what I need to work on. There's always room for improvement, sir. Did some pitching too.
Q: Do you know if you will sign or consider college?
Fairley: "I'm a Giant now"
Q: Do you know if you will sign or consider college? Do Giants play in your high school stadium during spring training?
Alderson: I will talk with my family, friends and advisors and see how it goes. Yes, in high school I played in the Giants spring training facility. It is just exciting, just absorbing everything, the experience.
Giants Thoughts
I was going to write a post on each of the top 6 picks but I think I'll just wrap up by putting my thoughts here. Here is also some thoughts on them by the website, The Baseball Analyst, scroll down to the appropriate draft number. The comments there are very similar to what I've compiled below.
Pick #32: Nick Noonan
I've seen talk that he's like Chase Utley with less power, more likely 10-15 HR. Why they get people's hopes up by invoking Chase Utley when he seems more like a Marcus Giles - who, by the way, would be a perfectly good 2B to have to, just not elite like Utley - I don't know. Anyway, that's double digit teen homerun power to go with good base-stealing, probably on order of double digit teen stolen bases, I would take that at 2B if Noonan can deliver it.
Oh, found the reference, it was Baseball America who invoked Utley, Noonan's profile was posted on MCC, highlights: one of the most polished bats in the draft, he emerged as San Diego's top prep prospect, evoking comparisons to Chase Utley. Won't hit for same power, but he's also above-average lefthanded bat who profiles best at 2B. Plenty of baseball savvy, particularly at plate, making consistent hard contact. He struggled at first with wood but adjusted. Good basestealer, solid defender, one of steadiest players in this draft.
From MLB.com, his scouting profile says pretty much the same. His bat will definitely play at the next level, so he could be intriguing table-setter. Has ability to hit for average, profiles leadoff or #2 with excellent bat control and good idea at the plate. Not much power now, could develop 10-15 HR. Average speed, but smart baserunner, able to steal bases. Arm probably puts him at 2B, he would be solid defensively at 2B or SS except for arm. He has excellent instincts, he is an athletic, top of the order MI. Makes consistent contact and has excellent plate discipline.
I like the pick overall, have no opinion on whether they should have waited or not.
Pick #43, Jackson Williams
A lot of people don't like him being drafted here, thinks he was selected in order to save money. I don't agree, he seems to be a nice pick, not that I'm an expert on when a player should be picked. But he seems to be a nice package.
Williams is only a junior, just turned 21, and he was the starting catcher for three years for Oklahoma, which is in the Big 12. According to Boyd's World, a site that follows college baseball closely, the Big 12 was the highest rated conference in terms of strength as of June 8, 2007: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/confisr.html. So he is doing this in the toughest conference for college baseball.
He is known as a defensive catcher - I've seen someone describe him as the best defensive catcher in the draft - but he started driving in runs this season as well, hitting .344 with 44 RBIs in 50 games (25 RBIs in last 20 games). I think it speaks to how good he is that he is in one of the top conferences, became the starter immediately, and now is one of the better hitters in a tough conference. And his offense improved each year, showing that he's capable of adjusting and improving:
2005: .263/.353/.419/.772; ISO 156
2006: .292/.390/.411/.801; ISO 129
2007: .344/.426/.525/.951; ISO 181
He had the team's third highest batting average and RBI total, and had 4 HR, 18 BB, and 33 SO in 183 AB. And he saved his best for Big 12 opponents, 27 RBI in in Big 12 games. He posted a .985 fielding percentage. He was named all-Big 12 Second Team by league's coaches and named first team All-Big by two local newspapers. The Baseball Analysts also noted that he is "an intense competitor and student of the game, Williams was the captain of the Sooners baseball team. He projects as a solid but 'low ceiling'" backstop."
I like the pick overall, and had they waited to the 5th round to select him, he probably wouldn't have been around. Sounds like a great defensive catcher, even better than Wieters, who I was hoping would fall to us at #5 this year. But the description above by the Baseball Analyst matches what commenters have been saying about him being a MLB backup at best. I like the fact that he was facing some of the toughest teams and pitchers in the NCAA and was able to adjust and learn to hit better against them. That gives me hope that he can do the same once in the pro ranks.
Pick #51, Charlie Culberson
A lot of people have a problem with Culberson because they think the Giants drafted him in order to save money, as he was not expected to go so high in the draft.
I read on MCC the day of the draft that he only gave the Giants and Braves a tryout, the former because the Giants drafted his dad, the later because he lives in the area, and he hit 6 HRs with a wooden bat in a workout for the Giants. Admittedly, probably BP HRs but the Giants got to see him up close and in different situations that apparently impressed them greatly. He was quoted as saying, it would be "really cool to keep the family tradition going with the Giants."
Now perhaps he was selected too "early" relative to where he should do (I've seen rounds 3 and 4), but would you rather be cheap and be "right" in principle by selecting someone else and watch him be taken by someone else or go with your eyewitness tryout experience? If Sabean really thought he was a better prospect, he should pick him now or forever hold his piece.
Stats for him: 123 AB in high school at shortstop, he hit .512 with .611 OPB, 16 HR, 13 doubles, 52 RBI, 59 runs scored. Not too shabby, but I thought Royce Clayton might be a homerun hitter too at SS because of all the homers he hit in high school too. He got a lot of exposure because his teammate, Josh Smoker, was heavily scouted.
BA (MCC post again) labeled him a "game in the mold of Marcus Giles." Said he's a baseball rat who is related to George Sisler and has a lot of intangibles. As I noted above myself, BA said that despite his power in high school, he doesn't project to hit for power in the majors.
I'm OK with the pick. They had him in for that tryout and he apparently impressed them. At that point of the draft, the odds of finding anybody good is pretty slim anyhow. People think they know better but really, if the major league GMs have a hard time finding the MLB player after the 20th pick, why do they think they know better when they don't have all the inside information that the GM have on the players.
Q: Tell us about your two high school pitchers.
Tidrow: Bumgarner is a big strong, power lefty. Good breaking pitch, excellent command, he's going to be a fast mover, he's on the fast track. Has a power curve. Fairley is a 5 tool prospect, power, speed, CF. Noonan is a fast lefty, see him at 2B. Williams is an excellent defensive catcher, he's going to be a big league starter. Culberson we see as a 3B/2B combo, he has a good bat. Chase Corrigan, college pitcher, good curve, FB command, very athletic, lots of innings thrown.
Q: (Sound problems with previous response prompts Tidrow to talk about Alderson; remember this is not verbatim stuff, just my scratch notes off a lousy recording plus my memory on some stuff)
Tidrow: Alderson has a clean arm, throws harder, stronger, has good command, he's going to be a starter, not a reliever.
Q: Other pick's skills that come to mind?
Tidrow: (Noise cuts off name of prospect) has an excellent swing, good speed, will play middle infield, SS or 2B (Noonan? Does not sound like Culberson). Williams great skills at catcher, best in draft for defense.
Q: Why #10?
Sabean: Size, strength, development, track record, athletic development.
Q: Lots of high school players, will this take patience?
Sabean: Giants got talent across the board, diverse group, got the guys we wanted at each pick.
Q: Did you plan to pick so many high schoolers?
Sabean: With so many high school talents, we had to be ready and prepared to pick them.
Q: Fairley's tools?
Sabean: Speed, power, raw power, really can run, throw, 5 tools now, the Giants need to develop them.
Q: When will they play?
Sabean: Will play once signed, either Salem-Keizer or Arizona. If possible, want to send them to Salem.
Q: So the Giants got who they wanted at #10?
Tidrow: Giants targeted him and another pitcher. He's a lefty, big, strong, power, and can locate his pitches. In 1-2 years, he'll be ready for the MLB.
Q: Any concerns about Alderson's stretch delivery?
Tidrow: No concern.
Q: Talk about your pitching motion.
Alderson: I can repeat the motion and have a good feel for it. I am comfortable with it, it is natural and easy to do. I just want to keep things simple. I compare myself with Francisco Rodriguez.
Q: question on baseball draft.
Sabean/Tidrow (don't remember): to develop a player it takes 1200-1500 ABs, 500-1000 IP
Q: Bumgarner's secondary pitches?
S/T: Sweeping curve, cutter, bread and butter is his fastball away though.
Q: Comparable to Cain, another high school pick?
S/T: First year, we just make sure the pitcher is healthy. Both Bumgarner and Alderson are on the fast track to the majors. They have size, ability, and command.
Q: Was Boras a factor?
Sabean: We select talent first, signability and agent concerns second.
Q: Size?
Fairley: 6'2"
Q: Two sport player, is baseball new to you?
Fairley: Baseball is my main sport, the one I'm best at.
Q: Some have compared you to Carl Crawford, what do you think of that?
Fairley: I'm just coming out of high school (poor sound cuts some of the response)
Q: What skills do you need to work on?
Fairley: Sir, I play the field good, run; maybe hit for power is what I need to work on. There's always room for improvement, sir. Did some pitching too.
Q: Do you know if you will sign or consider college?
Fairley: "I'm a Giant now"
Q: Do you know if you will sign or consider college? Do Giants play in your high school stadium during spring training?
Alderson: I will talk with my family, friends and advisors and see how it goes. Yes, in high school I played in the Giants spring training facility. It is just exciting, just absorbing everything, the experience.
Giants Thoughts
I was going to write a post on each of the top 6 picks but I think I'll just wrap up by putting my thoughts here. Here is also some thoughts on them by the website, The Baseball Analyst, scroll down to the appropriate draft number. The comments there are very similar to what I've compiled below.
Pick #32: Nick Noonan
I've seen talk that he's like Chase Utley with less power, more likely 10-15 HR. Why they get people's hopes up by invoking Chase Utley when he seems more like a Marcus Giles - who, by the way, would be a perfectly good 2B to have to, just not elite like Utley - I don't know. Anyway, that's double digit teen homerun power to go with good base-stealing, probably on order of double digit teen stolen bases, I would take that at 2B if Noonan can deliver it.
Oh, found the reference, it was Baseball America who invoked Utley, Noonan's profile was posted on MCC, highlights: one of the most polished bats in the draft, he emerged as San Diego's top prep prospect, evoking comparisons to Chase Utley. Won't hit for same power, but he's also above-average lefthanded bat who profiles best at 2B. Plenty of baseball savvy, particularly at plate, making consistent hard contact. He struggled at first with wood but adjusted. Good basestealer, solid defender, one of steadiest players in this draft.
From MLB.com, his scouting profile says pretty much the same. His bat will definitely play at the next level, so he could be intriguing table-setter. Has ability to hit for average, profiles leadoff or #2 with excellent bat control and good idea at the plate. Not much power now, could develop 10-15 HR. Average speed, but smart baserunner, able to steal bases. Arm probably puts him at 2B, he would be solid defensively at 2B or SS except for arm. He has excellent instincts, he is an athletic, top of the order MI. Makes consistent contact and has excellent plate discipline.
I like the pick overall, have no opinion on whether they should have waited or not.
Pick #43, Jackson Williams
A lot of people don't like him being drafted here, thinks he was selected in order to save money. I don't agree, he seems to be a nice pick, not that I'm an expert on when a player should be picked. But he seems to be a nice package.
Williams is only a junior, just turned 21, and he was the starting catcher for three years for Oklahoma, which is in the Big 12. According to Boyd's World, a site that follows college baseball closely, the Big 12 was the highest rated conference in terms of strength as of June 8, 2007: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/confisr.html. So he is doing this in the toughest conference for college baseball.
He is known as a defensive catcher - I've seen someone describe him as the best defensive catcher in the draft - but he started driving in runs this season as well, hitting .344 with 44 RBIs in 50 games (25 RBIs in last 20 games). I think it speaks to how good he is that he is in one of the top conferences, became the starter immediately, and now is one of the better hitters in a tough conference. And his offense improved each year, showing that he's capable of adjusting and improving:
2005: .263/.353/.419/.772; ISO 156
2006: .292/.390/.411/.801; ISO 129
2007: .344/.426/.525/.951; ISO 181
He had the team's third highest batting average and RBI total, and had 4 HR, 18 BB, and 33 SO in 183 AB. And he saved his best for Big 12 opponents, 27 RBI in in Big 12 games. He posted a .985 fielding percentage. He was named all-Big 12 Second Team by league's coaches and named first team All-Big by two local newspapers. The Baseball Analysts also noted that he is "an intense competitor and student of the game, Williams was the captain of the Sooners baseball team. He projects as a solid but 'low ceiling'" backstop."
I like the pick overall, and had they waited to the 5th round to select him, he probably wouldn't have been around. Sounds like a great defensive catcher, even better than Wieters, who I was hoping would fall to us at #5 this year. But the description above by the Baseball Analyst matches what commenters have been saying about him being a MLB backup at best. I like the fact that he was facing some of the toughest teams and pitchers in the NCAA and was able to adjust and learn to hit better against them. That gives me hope that he can do the same once in the pro ranks.
Pick #51, Charlie Culberson
A lot of people have a problem with Culberson because they think the Giants drafted him in order to save money, as he was not expected to go so high in the draft.
I read on MCC the day of the draft that he only gave the Giants and Braves a tryout, the former because the Giants drafted his dad, the later because he lives in the area, and he hit 6 HRs with a wooden bat in a workout for the Giants. Admittedly, probably BP HRs but the Giants got to see him up close and in different situations that apparently impressed them greatly. He was quoted as saying, it would be "really cool to keep the family tradition going with the Giants."
Now perhaps he was selected too "early" relative to where he should do (I've seen rounds 3 and 4), but would you rather be cheap and be "right" in principle by selecting someone else and watch him be taken by someone else or go with your eyewitness tryout experience? If Sabean really thought he was a better prospect, he should pick him now or forever hold his piece.
Stats for him: 123 AB in high school at shortstop, he hit .512 with .611 OPB, 16 HR, 13 doubles, 52 RBI, 59 runs scored. Not too shabby, but I thought Royce Clayton might be a homerun hitter too at SS because of all the homers he hit in high school too. He got a lot of exposure because his teammate, Josh Smoker, was heavily scouted.
BA (MCC post again) labeled him a "game in the mold of Marcus Giles." Said he's a baseball rat who is related to George Sisler and has a lot of intangibles. As I noted above myself, BA said that despite his power in high school, he doesn't project to hit for power in the majors.
I'm OK with the pick. They had him in for that tryout and he apparently impressed them. At that point of the draft, the odds of finding anybody good is pretty slim anyhow. People think they know better but really, if the major league GMs have a hard time finding the MLB player after the 20th pick, why do they think they know better when they don't have all the inside information that the GM have on the players.
Saturday, June 09, 2007
Giants 2007 Draft 6 Pick: #29 - Wendell Fairley ("I'm A Giant Now")
With the 29th pick, the Giants selected Wendell Fairley, CF, high schooler, who bats left but throws right.
Now class, what's the significance of the 29th pick that has lived in infamy for a number of Giants fans? Bueller? Bueller?
Michael Tucker Experience
Yes, it was the Michael Tucker signing that the Giants flipped their draft pick, the 29th of the 2004 draft, in order to sign Tucker. People bemoan the loss of that draft pick, but this shows how you cannot judge transactions immediately in all cases. In this case, they lost the draft pick, but then they got a player back to replace that draft pick.
Today, we have Kelvin Pichardo, who we got in trade for Tucker. He is with San Jose this year, doing pretty well as a 21 year old: 25.0 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 10 BB, 39 K. Batting against him, .242/.306/.337/.642, BABIP .400 (so he should do better, he's suffering from bad luck), WHIP 1.32, 3.6 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 0.36 HR/9, 5% HR/FB. And that is in a hitters league.
Meanwhile, the Royals drafted Matthew Campbell, who is already out of baseball. Over the next 10 picks, the only players to have made the majors are J.P. Howell and Zach Jackson, neither of whom have done well.
Eric Hurley, the next pick after Campbell, was doing OK (i.e. not well enough for majors) until something clicked in 2006 at age 20 in AA, and he boosted his status greatly, he was #2 on Rangers top 30 list by Baseball America. Howell is struggling in the Tampa Bay farm system, not even on the top 30 list. Jackson is #16 Brewers (traded by Toronto) but hasn't done well at all in upper levels. Next was Justin Orenduff, he is #14 on Dodgers, but coming off injuries, and his ceiling is back-of-the-rotation starter at best.
Tyler Lumsden, 34th pick, was traded to Royals in 2006, after missing all of 2005, he's #5 on Royals. Matthew Fox is not on anyone's BA Top 30 list. Danny Putnam is #16 on A's, he struggled in AA last season and got send back down to A-ball. Jonathan Poterson, Yankee's pick at 37, is not on their Top 30 list.
Giovany Gonzalez is probably the best of the 10 picks after the 29th pick, he has already been traded by the ChiSox to Phillies and then ChiSox got him back in another trade. He's #3 on ChiSox. Lastly, Jay Rainville is #16 on Twins prospect list.
Now unless a player is somewhere in top 2 to 4 of a team's top prospect list, I've found that they don't normally amount to much, there is not that much talent below that, except for relievers. So among the picks examined above, while Pichardo does not rank at all in the Giants prospect list, at least they got a player who is doing well in the minors and he's still very young, only 21 years old this year. Of the players drafted after our pick, Hurley and Gonzalez looks like they will make something of themselves, but the rest are not really that much better than Pichardo and a couple are already out of baseball.
It just goes to show that even in that "low" a pick, the odds of finding a good player is very low, it is 3 years later and no one has made the majors to stay among this group, no one has even done well at AAA before this season, let alone made the majors to stay. Hurley looks like he is finally figuring out something, but now he has to prove it wasn't a fluke by doing well this season in AAA. Only Gonzalez seems like a prospect who will make something of himself.
Fairley Good
There is not a lot of information out on him, even MLB.com was not prepared with a scouting report on him. His BA information was provided on MCC and since it was probably not legal, I won't copy it here, but since the cat is out of the bag, I'll give some highlights:
Now class, what's the significance of the 29th pick that has lived in infamy for a number of Giants fans? Bueller? Bueller?
Michael Tucker Experience
Yes, it was the Michael Tucker signing that the Giants flipped their draft pick, the 29th of the 2004 draft, in order to sign Tucker. People bemoan the loss of that draft pick, but this shows how you cannot judge transactions immediately in all cases. In this case, they lost the draft pick, but then they got a player back to replace that draft pick.
Today, we have Kelvin Pichardo, who we got in trade for Tucker. He is with San Jose this year, doing pretty well as a 21 year old: 25.0 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 10 BB, 39 K. Batting against him, .242/.306/.337/.642, BABIP .400 (so he should do better, he's suffering from bad luck), WHIP 1.32, 3.6 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 0.36 HR/9, 5% HR/FB. And that is in a hitters league.
Meanwhile, the Royals drafted Matthew Campbell, who is already out of baseball. Over the next 10 picks, the only players to have made the majors are J.P. Howell and Zach Jackson, neither of whom have done well.
Eric Hurley, the next pick after Campbell, was doing OK (i.e. not well enough for majors) until something clicked in 2006 at age 20 in AA, and he boosted his status greatly, he was #2 on Rangers top 30 list by Baseball America. Howell is struggling in the Tampa Bay farm system, not even on the top 30 list. Jackson is #16 Brewers (traded by Toronto) but hasn't done well at all in upper levels. Next was Justin Orenduff, he is #14 on Dodgers, but coming off injuries, and his ceiling is back-of-the-rotation starter at best.
Tyler Lumsden, 34th pick, was traded to Royals in 2006, after missing all of 2005, he's #5 on Royals. Matthew Fox is not on anyone's BA Top 30 list. Danny Putnam is #16 on A's, he struggled in AA last season and got send back down to A-ball. Jonathan Poterson, Yankee's pick at 37, is not on their Top 30 list.
Giovany Gonzalez is probably the best of the 10 picks after the 29th pick, he has already been traded by the ChiSox to Phillies and then ChiSox got him back in another trade. He's #3 on ChiSox. Lastly, Jay Rainville is #16 on Twins prospect list.
Now unless a player is somewhere in top 2 to 4 of a team's top prospect list, I've found that they don't normally amount to much, there is not that much talent below that, except for relievers. So among the picks examined above, while Pichardo does not rank at all in the Giants prospect list, at least they got a player who is doing well in the minors and he's still very young, only 21 years old this year. Of the players drafted after our pick, Hurley and Gonzalez looks like they will make something of themselves, but the rest are not really that much better than Pichardo and a couple are already out of baseball.
It just goes to show that even in that "low" a pick, the odds of finding a good player is very low, it is 3 years later and no one has made the majors to stay among this group, no one has even done well at AAA before this season, let alone made the majors to stay. Hurley looks like he is finally figuring out something, but now he has to prove it wasn't a fluke by doing well this season in AAA. Only Gonzalez seems like a prospect who will make something of himself.
Fairley Good
There is not a lot of information out on him, even MLB.com was not prepared with a scouting report on him. His BA information was provided on MCC and since it was probably not legal, I won't copy it here, but since the cat is out of the bag, I'll give some highlights:
- his "tools are unquestioned";
- he can hit for average and plus power;
- his quick lefty stroke allows him to pull the ball out of the park;
- plus runner;
- solid-average arm/defense, perfect for CF;
- just scratching surface of potential, could develop into mold of Carl Crawford;
- also noted his problem with law (dropped) and that he is a 19 year old father;
- mystery to scouts because he also played football and didn't play in any showcases.
Sounds pretty good, eh?
I also recall that in the ESPN show on the draft, Keith Law or another analyst noted that Fairley has top 10-15 talent, but fell to the end of the 1st round because of other issues.
I'm a Giant Now
There was also a link to a conference call (horrible, by the way, did my best to transcribe but notes are sloppy) on either MLB.com or sfgiants.com, and I will summarize in another post but will put Fairley's info here first.- Tidrow noted that Fairley has "5 tool, power, speed, CF".
- Sabean noted that Fairley has speed, raw power, really can run, throw, has 5 tools now but need to develop them now. In his Thursday KNBR show, Sabean noted that he likes Fairley's bat, he has a high ceiling, and just needs to grow into his tools. Unlike Bumgarner or Alderson, both of whom Sabean (and Tidrow) has said could move fast and make the majors in as little as two years, there has been no timetable on how long Fairley will take.
- Fairley was interviewed: while he played two sports, baseball was his main sport, his best sport. I found him to be fairly humble and polite, called one reporter, "sir" and replied "no sir" to another. Someone asked him about the comparison to Carl Crawford and (again very fuzzy with lots of background noise, like I noted, OK for first try at making into event, but execution was poor) he demurred, noting that he just came out of high school. When someone asked him what skill he needs to work on, he noted that hitting for power is one area but then quickly noted that there is always room for improvement.
- Thought I would end on a good note: when asked if he would sign or need time to decide, he had a great answer: "I'm a Giant now." Get that kid a Giants uniform now!
Overall, he sounds like a great pick. I don't know how bad that hazing incident that got him in trouble with the law was, but he sounded like a nice humble guy who realizes that he has a lot to learn but is willing to work hard to learn it. I'll chalk that problem up to youthful indiscretion, when you don't know any better when you are a teenager (or know better but do it anyway). I really liked the way he talked in the interview, no red flags were raised, he sounded like a nice guy looking to start his professional career, knows he has a lot to do, but willing to do what it takes. Perhaps being a father already gave him that motivation.
He sounds like the best position prospect that we have had in ages (well, at least before Villalona; won't they make a nice pair of call-ups in 4-6 years, or less?) and he helps makes up for the fact that we passed up a few premier position talents in Dominguez, Heyward, and Mills, particularly Heyward since I've seen a number of descriptions of him being remniscent of Willie McCovey. He's noted as a Top 10-15 pick by talent so he's equivalent enough to them to satisfy me - and I do like Bumgarner and Alderson and the fact that Sabean and Tidrow both noted that they are on the fast track and could advance to the majors in as short as 2 years, so despite them not being college players, they could provide return to the Giants in perhaps even a shorter timeframe, few prospects make the majors in 6 years, let alone 2 years. And there's no way the Giants would have gotten anyone as good as Bumgarner in the 29th pick had they selected any of those three hitters.
Friday, June 08, 2007
Giants 2007 Draft 6 Pick: #22 - Tim Alderson
Much has been made of #22 Tim Alderson's unusual delivery: he always pitches out of the stretch. As far as I'm concerned, I thought that's great because I don't know how many times I see a pitcher have to throw out of the stretch and suddenly loses his control. Alderson never has to worry about that. His coaches make their high school's pitchers throw out of the stretch in their freshman and sophomore seasons, but allow them to throw normally starting their junior year. Alderson continued doing it, I suppose because of his height, 6'7", which normally would be very hard to coordinate and thus why a lot of tall pitchers are wild and lack control, but since it was working for him already, why mess with success?
Besides which, he never has to worry about losing his control. It's amazing, as his scouting report on MLB.com notes, "Alderson has plus, plus command. He issued his first walk of the season in this start while striking out 13. Dating back to last year, he's walked 9 and struck out 173." Now THAT'S control.
It also notes that his fastball normally is in the 89-93 MPH range, which is slightly above average and his curve has a chance to be a plus pitch in the future. In addition, his changeup is decent even though he didn't need to use it much in high school. And despite his height, 6'7", he is athletic and coordinated on the mound. They think that he has a chance to be a three-pitch, strike-throwing machine with a lot of deception in his delivery.
The fear with him, much like Lincecum last year, is that his unique delivery and unorthodox arm action will result in physical problems. Thus many scouts think that he would be better suited as a reliever, again, much like Lincecum. Ironic, eh, since Lincecum is so short relatively and Alderson is so tall. If they do end up together in the rotation, Alderson can be "Tiny Tim" and Lincecum can be "Big Tim". :^)
Giants Thoughts on Alderson
I like the pick. He would have been drafted much earlier based on talent if it wasn't for his unusual delivery. Of course, he probably ices his arm, unlike Lincecum, so the fear about his delivery is probably valid. However, I would think the Giants are going to work with him to reduce the probability of injury with his delivery.
I'm assuming the Giants don't want to use him as a reliever - though with up to 3 good pitches and pinpoint command, he could be a devastating reliever a la Eckersley - and keep him as a starter so that he can work on perfecting his two other pitches as they probably fast track him up the system. However, with so many good starters in the rotation, already and potentially, he could be switched to closing, much like Papelbon was, at least initially in his career, before they move him back into the rotation should they trade someone in the future. Or they could trade him to get a good position player in the future as well.
Focus On Pitching Good Strategy For Today's Baseball
As noted in the other post, this is the strategy I foresaw long ago regarding Sabean's focus on pitching: eventually, assuming you are good at what you do, you end up with a great pitching staff and logjams of talent will start to occur, creating surplus that can be traded off for position players. This is particularly valuable strategy over the past two years as mediocre middle of rotation starters, like Meche, Lilly, and Padilla, get $10-11M annual salaries. By cranking out pitchers like this, all at cheap cost and 6 year control, that is a great value to any team you trade with, and should net us valuable hitters straight up.
A pitcher like that - Hennessey, I've thought, could be a good middle of rotation starter, Sanchez is at least that, perhaps better - could save the team we trade him to, $8-9M per year on their pitching staff, so they would be more willing to trade off surplus hitting to us - like a Rangers, Angels, Tampa Bay, who cranks out hitters but not pitchers - and, frankly, I think they might give us extra too, like another low level prospect, it don't matter if you have a team of young hitters if your middle rotation starters are giving up 5 runs per game. In addition, we allow them to save money on their rotation which they can tend turn around and afford to pay a free agent or their own free agent-to-be's.
Classic Ricardian Economics
And this is classic comparative advantage economics, where you focus on what you do best and trade with someone who focus on what they do best, and we all benefit. So while I was bummed, and still is, about not getting a good hitter with the first two picks, unfortunately the better ones were taken early, so I'm glad that they decided to focus on good pitchers because there is a lot of benefits from that as well.
And as I noted, who is to say that Bumgarner and Alderson are not the ones who become good players and Dominguez, Mills, and Heyward never pan out? Lots of commentators scream that these three are better, but what do they know? Each of the three have problem areas that could derail their MLB dreams, they may never adjust and learn to overcome their problems, only Wieters, among the hitters, appear to be a sure thing, probably why the Orioles selected him.
There are no guarantees even for the 10th or 22nd pick of the draft. In all likelihood, as my study found, the vast majority of those picks (10-30) never amount to anything in baseball, couple are useful, and the rare ones turn out to be good players. We are extremely lucky (or good) to have three in such a short period in Lowry, Cain, and Lincecum. This draft will probably make or break Sabean and Company's reputation for developing young pitchers, assuming Magowan gives Sabean an extension after the season.
The Return of Sabean?
In recent comments, Magowan, while not outright saying Sabean will return and reiterating that the decision will be made after the season, praised Sabean for the draft, saying he "did a hell of a job with the draft yesterday. I think he's a well-respected general manager. What more can I say?" I think that means that barring a total collapse of the team, Sabean will get at least a one year contract and probably will get more years if the Giants can get it into gear and be competitive for the division title in the second half of the season.
Besides which, he never has to worry about losing his control. It's amazing, as his scouting report on MLB.com notes, "Alderson has plus, plus command. He issued his first walk of the season in this start while striking out 13. Dating back to last year, he's walked 9 and struck out 173." Now THAT'S control.
It also notes that his fastball normally is in the 89-93 MPH range, which is slightly above average and his curve has a chance to be a plus pitch in the future. In addition, his changeup is decent even though he didn't need to use it much in high school. And despite his height, 6'7", he is athletic and coordinated on the mound. They think that he has a chance to be a three-pitch, strike-throwing machine with a lot of deception in his delivery.
The fear with him, much like Lincecum last year, is that his unique delivery and unorthodox arm action will result in physical problems. Thus many scouts think that he would be better suited as a reliever, again, much like Lincecum. Ironic, eh, since Lincecum is so short relatively and Alderson is so tall. If they do end up together in the rotation, Alderson can be "Tiny Tim" and Lincecum can be "Big Tim". :^)
Giants Thoughts on Alderson
I like the pick. He would have been drafted much earlier based on talent if it wasn't for his unusual delivery. Of course, he probably ices his arm, unlike Lincecum, so the fear about his delivery is probably valid. However, I would think the Giants are going to work with him to reduce the probability of injury with his delivery.
I'm assuming the Giants don't want to use him as a reliever - though with up to 3 good pitches and pinpoint command, he could be a devastating reliever a la Eckersley - and keep him as a starter so that he can work on perfecting his two other pitches as they probably fast track him up the system. However, with so many good starters in the rotation, already and potentially, he could be switched to closing, much like Papelbon was, at least initially in his career, before they move him back into the rotation should they trade someone in the future. Or they could trade him to get a good position player in the future as well.
Focus On Pitching Good Strategy For Today's Baseball
As noted in the other post, this is the strategy I foresaw long ago regarding Sabean's focus on pitching: eventually, assuming you are good at what you do, you end up with a great pitching staff and logjams of talent will start to occur, creating surplus that can be traded off for position players. This is particularly valuable strategy over the past two years as mediocre middle of rotation starters, like Meche, Lilly, and Padilla, get $10-11M annual salaries. By cranking out pitchers like this, all at cheap cost and 6 year control, that is a great value to any team you trade with, and should net us valuable hitters straight up.
A pitcher like that - Hennessey, I've thought, could be a good middle of rotation starter, Sanchez is at least that, perhaps better - could save the team we trade him to, $8-9M per year on their pitching staff, so they would be more willing to trade off surplus hitting to us - like a Rangers, Angels, Tampa Bay, who cranks out hitters but not pitchers - and, frankly, I think they might give us extra too, like another low level prospect, it don't matter if you have a team of young hitters if your middle rotation starters are giving up 5 runs per game. In addition, we allow them to save money on their rotation which they can tend turn around and afford to pay a free agent or their own free agent-to-be's.
Classic Ricardian Economics
And this is classic comparative advantage economics, where you focus on what you do best and trade with someone who focus on what they do best, and we all benefit. So while I was bummed, and still is, about not getting a good hitter with the first two picks, unfortunately the better ones were taken early, so I'm glad that they decided to focus on good pitchers because there is a lot of benefits from that as well.
And as I noted, who is to say that Bumgarner and Alderson are not the ones who become good players and Dominguez, Mills, and Heyward never pan out? Lots of commentators scream that these three are better, but what do they know? Each of the three have problem areas that could derail their MLB dreams, they may never adjust and learn to overcome their problems, only Wieters, among the hitters, appear to be a sure thing, probably why the Orioles selected him.
There are no guarantees even for the 10th or 22nd pick of the draft. In all likelihood, as my study found, the vast majority of those picks (10-30) never amount to anything in baseball, couple are useful, and the rare ones turn out to be good players. We are extremely lucky (or good) to have three in such a short period in Lowry, Cain, and Lincecum. This draft will probably make or break Sabean and Company's reputation for developing young pitchers, assuming Magowan gives Sabean an extension after the season.
The Return of Sabean?
In recent comments, Magowan, while not outright saying Sabean will return and reiterating that the decision will be made after the season, praised Sabean for the draft, saying he "did a hell of a job with the draft yesterday. I think he's a well-respected general manager. What more can I say?" I think that means that barring a total collapse of the team, Sabean will get at least a one year contract and probably will get more years if the Giants can get it into gear and be competitive for the division title in the second half of the season.
Giants 2007 Draft 6 Pick: #10 - Madison Bumgarner
The Giants had 6 of the first 51 picks in the 2007 Amateur Draft: 10, 22, 29, 32, 43, 51. For the first time the event was broadcasted, on ESPN, plus was available on-line on MLB.com. Bud's not much of a personality, eh? They were trying to make it into an event like the other two major sports, football and basketball. It was a nice first try but if the Giants didn't have 6 picks, I probably would have been much more bored than I was.
Disappointing But Good Draft Overall
I was very disappointed, though a large part of it was due to the damn Baltimore Orioles selecting Matt Wieters with the 5th pick when most mock drafts had Wieters falling to the Giants. In fact, Mike LaPorta was also selected before our first pick, when he was expected to fall to either our #22 or #29 picks, and I was hoping to the Giants would select him #22, which left Brad Mills as the sole premier college hitter available for us to select. There was also Mike Dominguez and Justin Heyward available too, but the Giants went lefty on us and selected Madison Bumgarner, LHP, high schooler.
#10 Pick: Madison Bumgarner
When Madison Baumgarner was selected, I didn't know who he was but I recognized his name but wasn't sure why. Later I realized that DrB, who frequents MCC, had wrote that he would fall down the stairs if the Giants selected him. I then remembered that one of the mock drafts had the Giants selecting him, so I should have included him among the list of pitchers who we might select, but since DrB was so vehement against him, I left him off, my bad.
Sidenote: Soapbox Comment
But first, a soapbox. I don't really know prospects like other commenters on the Internet - I can just compile data and information from a variety of sources and give my thoughts based on that - and they seem to know their stuff about mechanics, arm slots, etc, but I'm offended by the bloggers calling Sabean every word under the sun under the guise of advice and opinion. It is one thing to disagree but a whole other thing to call him names, like "moron," I find it all very childish and unprofessional.
These people are worse than regular journalists, in that they not only think that they are smarter and better than the person they are opining on, but then they lower themselves into the gutter by calling Sabean names. Sure, if you think he should be fired, great, share your opinion and logical reasons, but to call someone a "moron"? It really does not put you in a good light, nor reflect well on you.
If they were really that good at something that even professionals find hard to do (my study showed that even baseball professionals only find good players about 10% of the time in the end of the first round), they would have been snapped up long ago, because they would be golden. Even if they could up the percentage just 10% to 20%, that cuts development costs down significantly for any MLB team. And Sabean has brought us Cain, Lincecum, and Lowry, I think we should acknowledge that his organization's pitching knowledge has been superior in getting us these guys and give him the benefit of the doubt.
And I'm sure if any of them are reading this, they are probably thinking, "moron."
Bummer, Dude
That said, I was disapppointed by the selection of Madison Bumgarner. Not to the point of wanting to throw myself down the stairs, as DrB on MCC said he would if the Giants selected him, but I had been hoping to get some offensive help from the #10 pick. I was really hoping that Wieters would fall to us, but I guess that was wishful thinking. But there was a bunch of top offensive help available at #10, Beau Mills, Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez, who were consensus top picks where you couldn't go wrong - in the post analysis - selecting one of them.
And I guess that is where Sabean and gang diverges, because they never go by consesus thinking. From what I read on some of the boards, the Giants had Mills in just the other day for a tryout session, so whatever they were looking for from him, they did not find it that day in the tryout. And that's the hard thing to remember as a fan, that the Giants have seen all of these players, perhaps up close like Mills, and brings that knowledge to the table when selecting.
And it wasn't like Bumgarner isn't a highly regarded prospect, he is, but, again, our farm system needs position prospects - and the Giants actually ended up with 4 position draft picks vs. 2 pitching - and the #10 pick gave us, I felt, our greatest chance to get someone who will eventually help us out positionally.
But it is all a crapshoot anyway, as I wrote long ago about the draft when publishing my study results, even at #10, the odds of finding a good player is only about 20-25% anyway, so who am I to say that Bumgarner is not that 1 out of 4 or 5 prospects who make it? I am only disappointed that there was not a position prospect selected, but will trust that Sabean took who he thought was the best talent (who is signable).
Thoughts on Bumgarner
I would like to see or hear an interview with him on his thoughts about his pitching repertoire. Most commenters talked about him having only one pitch, but the MLB scouting profile clearly states that not only does he has a decent fastball - 89-95 MPH - but that he has a good changeup: "He doesn't throw it much because he doesn't need to, but he's shown a pretty good feel and command of the change at times, throwing it in the 79-82 MPH range." That's a good 10 MPH separation there and Noah Lowry has done pretty well as a pitcher just having those main two pitches.
In addition, Bumgarner doesn't have a curve or slider not because he could not master them, but because he just started pitching them just one year ago, because his father wouldn't allow him to. Well, now he will get professional training on the proper way to throw them, plus he can speak with Zito, Cain, and Lincecum about it because they all have a great curve ball, and probably with Lowry and Misch about their changeups. And he's only 17 (18 in August), so he still has some physical maturation coming, which should add a few MPH to his already good fastball plus with professional coaching, he should be able to master the curve and/or slider with a few years under his belt.
Brian Sabean, in a post-pick interview somewhere, said that he thinks that Bumgarner is going to be on the fast track to the majors, taking only a couple of years maybe, meaning that he'll be like Cain, coming up at around age 20. He has size, strength, and athletic ability, with a developed delivery. They also like his competitiveness and composure, then Sabean played his "maturity" card that he likes to throw out about his top prospects. That comment is a bit empty because he used it all the time when talking about Jerome Williams, but in the post-mortem, he was not that mature after all, eatting his way off the Giants and being too stubborn to change things when the Giants tried to help him get better.
Overall, if it wasn't that I was hoping for a position player, I think I would have been very satisfied with Bumgarner was our #10 pick. He sounds like he can be a very good pitcher, despite the talk of being a one pitch pony (since he is a lefty, it brought on comparisons to Jonathan Sanchez, another one pitch fast-baller), it sounds like he already has a good changeup plus he only started a year ago throwing other than fastballs, so he should get better with experience and training. As noted in the scouting report, lefties from high school who has plus velocity don't come around very often. It also noted that "Bumgarner certainly looks the part, with the body type and fastball of a professional pitcher."
But given my disappointment over not getting a position prospect, I will hold Sabean to his word that Madison is on the fast track, and could come up in two years, although I would settle for 3-4 years. Unlike others, I'm not calling for Sabean's head, but I'm not blindly rah-rah either, there have been serious questions about his GM abilities, particularly in regards to the farm system, and while the addition of Lowry, Cain, and now Lincecum has quelled a lot of that for me, the job is still not finished.
For me, I'm willing to give Sabean two more seasons after this (to 2009) to further show that he is deserving of the chance to oversee the Giants into the 2010's. I am inclined to give it to him, but his stumbles with free agents and trades since the World Series has put doubt in the minds of fans including me. However, I'm hoping he will once again - once the farm system is brimming with pitching - be the GM who got us players like Kent, Snow, Burks, and Schmidt via trades of promising pitchers.
Sabean's New Era
This a dawning of a new era for Sabean. In the beginning, his first era, he really didn't have any good prospects, but because every organization has to have a Top 10, he could trade off guys like Grilli and Vogelsong and get good players in return. Then he started getting good players in the draft, starting with Ainsworth and Williams, then Foppert and Cain, and that started his second era. He could no longer trade away his top prospects because they were actually good - for a while at least in some cases - and this limited the trades he could do because teams would insist on his best prospects.
Now his third era begins, when you take the cream off the top and trade off the rest for good stuff. If Bumgarner and Alderson are as good as Sabean says that they are - capable of making the majors in two years - soon our rotation will be full. Zito, Cain, Lowry, and Lincecum will take four spots, potentially, then there will be Sanchez, Bumgarner, and Alderson. That will give us two starting pitchers to trade away, maybe three, as most teams don't need a great #5 starter. That should get us one to three good position prospects in return. And that is not counting any other pitching prospects coming out of the woodwork and surprising the team by rising quickly, like maybe Adam Cowart, he doesn't impress scouts, but like Al Davis's motto, "he just wins, baby!"
This is what I was writing about years ago about Sabean and his predilection for pitching, once you get a solid core set of pitchers, then you can go about and start trading off the spillover for the position players you need. While I was disappointed with not getting a position player at #10, I am excited over the trade possibilities for Sabean going forward when they start to percolate up to the majors. He clearly understands baseball skills, otherwise he would never have gotten Kent for Williams, Burks for Hamilton, Snow for Watson (or was it another pitcher?). Or even David Bell for that utility infielder. He's also the guy who was head of player personnel for the Yankees when they signed and developed Jeter, Posada, Mariano, and Bernie Williams, plus they also drafted JT Snow while he was there.
Unfortunately injuries to many of his high price signings - Nen, Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, Alou, Matheny, Roberts - have sullied his reputation and now he's fighting for his professional career here in SF and for the legacy of his tenure here. Given his successes with Lincecum, Cain, Lowry, I think he is deserving of a couple more years to further fulfill his vision for the team, for the organization. I hope Magowan gives him that chance when the season is over.
Disappointing But Good Draft Overall
I was very disappointed, though a large part of it was due to the damn Baltimore Orioles selecting Matt Wieters with the 5th pick when most mock drafts had Wieters falling to the Giants. In fact, Mike LaPorta was also selected before our first pick, when he was expected to fall to either our #22 or #29 picks, and I was hoping to the Giants would select him #22, which left Brad Mills as the sole premier college hitter available for us to select. There was also Mike Dominguez and Justin Heyward available too, but the Giants went lefty on us and selected Madison Bumgarner, LHP, high schooler.
#10 Pick: Madison Bumgarner
When Madison Baumgarner was selected, I didn't know who he was but I recognized his name but wasn't sure why. Later I realized that DrB, who frequents MCC, had wrote that he would fall down the stairs if the Giants selected him. I then remembered that one of the mock drafts had the Giants selecting him, so I should have included him among the list of pitchers who we might select, but since DrB was so vehement against him, I left him off, my bad.
Sidenote: Soapbox Comment
But first, a soapbox. I don't really know prospects like other commenters on the Internet - I can just compile data and information from a variety of sources and give my thoughts based on that - and they seem to know their stuff about mechanics, arm slots, etc, but I'm offended by the bloggers calling Sabean every word under the sun under the guise of advice and opinion. It is one thing to disagree but a whole other thing to call him names, like "moron," I find it all very childish and unprofessional.
These people are worse than regular journalists, in that they not only think that they are smarter and better than the person they are opining on, but then they lower themselves into the gutter by calling Sabean names. Sure, if you think he should be fired, great, share your opinion and logical reasons, but to call someone a "moron"? It really does not put you in a good light, nor reflect well on you.
If they were really that good at something that even professionals find hard to do (my study showed that even baseball professionals only find good players about 10% of the time in the end of the first round), they would have been snapped up long ago, because they would be golden. Even if they could up the percentage just 10% to 20%, that cuts development costs down significantly for any MLB team. And Sabean has brought us Cain, Lincecum, and Lowry, I think we should acknowledge that his organization's pitching knowledge has been superior in getting us these guys and give him the benefit of the doubt.
And I'm sure if any of them are reading this, they are probably thinking, "moron."
Bummer, Dude
That said, I was disapppointed by the selection of Madison Bumgarner. Not to the point of wanting to throw myself down the stairs, as DrB on MCC said he would if the Giants selected him, but I had been hoping to get some offensive help from the #10 pick. I was really hoping that Wieters would fall to us, but I guess that was wishful thinking. But there was a bunch of top offensive help available at #10, Beau Mills, Jason Heyward, Matt Dominguez, who were consensus top picks where you couldn't go wrong - in the post analysis - selecting one of them.
And I guess that is where Sabean and gang diverges, because they never go by consesus thinking. From what I read on some of the boards, the Giants had Mills in just the other day for a tryout session, so whatever they were looking for from him, they did not find it that day in the tryout. And that's the hard thing to remember as a fan, that the Giants have seen all of these players, perhaps up close like Mills, and brings that knowledge to the table when selecting.
And it wasn't like Bumgarner isn't a highly regarded prospect, he is, but, again, our farm system needs position prospects - and the Giants actually ended up with 4 position draft picks vs. 2 pitching - and the #10 pick gave us, I felt, our greatest chance to get someone who will eventually help us out positionally.
But it is all a crapshoot anyway, as I wrote long ago about the draft when publishing my study results, even at #10, the odds of finding a good player is only about 20-25% anyway, so who am I to say that Bumgarner is not that 1 out of 4 or 5 prospects who make it? I am only disappointed that there was not a position prospect selected, but will trust that Sabean took who he thought was the best talent (who is signable).
Thoughts on Bumgarner
I would like to see or hear an interview with him on his thoughts about his pitching repertoire. Most commenters talked about him having only one pitch, but the MLB scouting profile clearly states that not only does he has a decent fastball - 89-95 MPH - but that he has a good changeup: "He doesn't throw it much because he doesn't need to, but he's shown a pretty good feel and command of the change at times, throwing it in the 79-82 MPH range." That's a good 10 MPH separation there and Noah Lowry has done pretty well as a pitcher just having those main two pitches.
In addition, Bumgarner doesn't have a curve or slider not because he could not master them, but because he just started pitching them just one year ago, because his father wouldn't allow him to. Well, now he will get professional training on the proper way to throw them, plus he can speak with Zito, Cain, and Lincecum about it because they all have a great curve ball, and probably with Lowry and Misch about their changeups. And he's only 17 (18 in August), so he still has some physical maturation coming, which should add a few MPH to his already good fastball plus with professional coaching, he should be able to master the curve and/or slider with a few years under his belt.
Brian Sabean, in a post-pick interview somewhere, said that he thinks that Bumgarner is going to be on the fast track to the majors, taking only a couple of years maybe, meaning that he'll be like Cain, coming up at around age 20. He has size, strength, and athletic ability, with a developed delivery. They also like his competitiveness and composure, then Sabean played his "maturity" card that he likes to throw out about his top prospects. That comment is a bit empty because he used it all the time when talking about Jerome Williams, but in the post-mortem, he was not that mature after all, eatting his way off the Giants and being too stubborn to change things when the Giants tried to help him get better.
Overall, if it wasn't that I was hoping for a position player, I think I would have been very satisfied with Bumgarner was our #10 pick. He sounds like he can be a very good pitcher, despite the talk of being a one pitch pony (since he is a lefty, it brought on comparisons to Jonathan Sanchez, another one pitch fast-baller), it sounds like he already has a good changeup plus he only started a year ago throwing other than fastballs, so he should get better with experience and training. As noted in the scouting report, lefties from high school who has plus velocity don't come around very often. It also noted that "Bumgarner certainly looks the part, with the body type and fastball of a professional pitcher."
But given my disappointment over not getting a position prospect, I will hold Sabean to his word that Madison is on the fast track, and could come up in two years, although I would settle for 3-4 years. Unlike others, I'm not calling for Sabean's head, but I'm not blindly rah-rah either, there have been serious questions about his GM abilities, particularly in regards to the farm system, and while the addition of Lowry, Cain, and now Lincecum has quelled a lot of that for me, the job is still not finished.
For me, I'm willing to give Sabean two more seasons after this (to 2009) to further show that he is deserving of the chance to oversee the Giants into the 2010's. I am inclined to give it to him, but his stumbles with free agents and trades since the World Series has put doubt in the minds of fans including me. However, I'm hoping he will once again - once the farm system is brimming with pitching - be the GM who got us players like Kent, Snow, Burks, and Schmidt via trades of promising pitchers.
Sabean's New Era
This a dawning of a new era for Sabean. In the beginning, his first era, he really didn't have any good prospects, but because every organization has to have a Top 10, he could trade off guys like Grilli and Vogelsong and get good players in return. Then he started getting good players in the draft, starting with Ainsworth and Williams, then Foppert and Cain, and that started his second era. He could no longer trade away his top prospects because they were actually good - for a while at least in some cases - and this limited the trades he could do because teams would insist on his best prospects.
Now his third era begins, when you take the cream off the top and trade off the rest for good stuff. If Bumgarner and Alderson are as good as Sabean says that they are - capable of making the majors in two years - soon our rotation will be full. Zito, Cain, Lowry, and Lincecum will take four spots, potentially, then there will be Sanchez, Bumgarner, and Alderson. That will give us two starting pitchers to trade away, maybe three, as most teams don't need a great #5 starter. That should get us one to three good position prospects in return. And that is not counting any other pitching prospects coming out of the woodwork and surprising the team by rising quickly, like maybe Adam Cowart, he doesn't impress scouts, but like Al Davis's motto, "he just wins, baby!"
This is what I was writing about years ago about Sabean and his predilection for pitching, once you get a solid core set of pitchers, then you can go about and start trading off the spillover for the position players you need. While I was disappointed with not getting a position player at #10, I am excited over the trade possibilities for Sabean going forward when they start to percolate up to the majors. He clearly understands baseball skills, otherwise he would never have gotten Kent for Williams, Burks for Hamilton, Snow for Watson (or was it another pitcher?). Or even David Bell for that utility infielder. He's also the guy who was head of player personnel for the Yankees when they signed and developed Jeter, Posada, Mariano, and Bernie Williams, plus they also drafted JT Snow while he was there.
Unfortunately injuries to many of his high price signings - Nen, Alfonzo, Durham, Benitez, Alou, Matheny, Roberts - have sullied his reputation and now he's fighting for his professional career here in SF and for the legacy of his tenure here. Given his successes with Lincecum, Cain, Lowry, I think he is deserving of a couple more years to further fulfill his vision for the team, for the organization. I hope Magowan gives him that chance when the season is over.
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Giants 2007 Draft: A Bonanza of Picks
I am not smart enough to know exactly what the Giants are going to do. However, I have read enough about their intentions that I think I can say some things for certain and make certain educated guesses.
First, a lot of analysts think the company line: Giants are cheap, draft-pick adverse, and have a man-crush on Lewis-Clark State baseball players. While that last one appears to be true, I think I have shown in my posts before that the Giants have generally not been cheap (except for 2003) and that they were not being draft-pick adverse, but rather made a choice on where to better spend their money that year. In addition, Sabean said last year and this year that signability and money will not factor into their selection, they will pick the best player available for them to pick. They will not skip over players as some mock drafts had them do, they will pick the best player available and pay them appropriately, though after long drawn negotiations.
The analysts also think the Giants are pitching crazy, and some had them selecting pitchers with all three first round picks. While that has been true and probably will be true going forward, a few of them are way off when they think the Giants will waste the #10 pick on Casey Weathers, a reliever. I think the Giants have shown, with their handling of Tim Lincecum, they know that starting pitchers are worth way more than a reliever, and that they are not going to spend $2M (going rate for #10 draft picks) on a reliever.
My Thoughts on the Draft
As I noted, I have seen a number of mock drafts and while I don't agree with what a lot of them selected for the Giants, what they say makes sense for the other teams picking ahead of the Giants. Plus, there is a uniformity across the various guesses that I think I can say some things about the Giants draft, like I did last year.
Position players I would keep an eye out for are Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward, Beau Mills, Matt Dominguez, Matt LaPorta, Kevin Ahrens, and Michael Burgess.
So now, what does this mean for the Giants six picks in the first 51 overall picks: 10, 22, 29, 31, 43, 51? From my study, with odds based on data collected:
First, a lot of analysts think the company line: Giants are cheap, draft-pick adverse, and have a man-crush on Lewis-Clark State baseball players. While that last one appears to be true, I think I have shown in my posts before that the Giants have generally not been cheap (except for 2003) and that they were not being draft-pick adverse, but rather made a choice on where to better spend their money that year. In addition, Sabean said last year and this year that signability and money will not factor into their selection, they will pick the best player available for them to pick. They will not skip over players as some mock drafts had them do, they will pick the best player available and pay them appropriately, though after long drawn negotiations.
The analysts also think the Giants are pitching crazy, and some had them selecting pitchers with all three first round picks. While that has been true and probably will be true going forward, a few of them are way off when they think the Giants will waste the #10 pick on Casey Weathers, a reliever. I think the Giants have shown, with their handling of Tim Lincecum, they know that starting pitchers are worth way more than a reliever, and that they are not going to spend $2M (going rate for #10 draft picks) on a reliever.
My Thoughts on the Draft
As I noted, I have seen a number of mock drafts and while I don't agree with what a lot of them selected for the Giants, what they say makes sense for the other teams picking ahead of the Giants. Plus, there is a uniformity across the various guesses that I think I can say some things about the Giants draft, like I did last year.
Position players I would keep an eye out for are Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward, Beau Mills, Matt Dominguez, Matt LaPorta, Kevin Ahrens, and Michael Burgess.
- Matt Wieters: A Boras client looking for Teixiera money ($9M plus major league contract), I've seen a number of mock drafts having him fall out of the first round. No way that's going to happen, if he is there at #10, I believe the Giants will pick him. Switch hitting college catcher, very good defense despite his size, with power, plus apparently he's a good closer too. Most assessments I've read about him is that he's the best college bat plus is among the top 5 in the whole draft, and that is why some mock drafts have him being picked around the 3-5 picks. He's like the Lincecum of this draft for us, unbelievable good performance in college, and yet teams passed on him, allowing the Giants to get him (Lincecum). Believe it, to steal a line from a cartoon my son watches, Naruto. :^)
- Jason Heyward: A high school, toolsy, power-hitting corner OF, probably RF, I've seen him described as a young McCovey (DrB for those who know him from MCC), he's one of the top high school hitters. I've seen him go anywhere from 7-15 in mock drafts so he could be available at the Giants #10 pick but should be gone by #22. Could be picked if Wieters not available.
- Beau Mills: Homerun hitting wonder from Lewis-Clark State, hence why a number of drafts have the Giants picking him. I can see the Giants picking him with the #22 or #29 pick (probably won't last much further though), but he can only really play 1B, maybe at that, seems like another EME type, so I don't think the Giants will pick him at #10.
- Matt Dominguez: Good hitting high school 3B who can play good to great defense there. He should be available at the #10 spot, but it would be a stretch for him to make it to #22. I think he could be picked #10 if Wieters and Heyward are not available.
- Matt LaPorta: Another Boras client, most drafts I've seen had him falling out of the first round, but he's probably up there with Wieters and Mills in terms of hitting and hitting for power. However, he really wants a lot of money so he's falling, probably out of the first round according to some. He's also a defensive liability who can only play 1B if he makes the majors, like Mills. I can see the Giants picking him with the #22 or #29 pick as well as Mills, but not both. It really depends on whether Mills get picked by someone else or not.
- Julio Borbon: I saw one draft pick him for the Giants. CF leadoff type with a little power but plus speed, he's one of the top college OF in the draft. He has the speed that Sabean has been liking for a while now (Sanders, Burriss, Richardson, etc.). It seems like we have a lot of this type already in our system, like Copeland, Sanders. I don't think the Giants would pick him but he's probably available at the Giants #29 pick
- Kevin Ahrens: I saw one draft pick him for the Giants. Switch-hitting high school SS with power (though 3B is probably his future, he seems to profile there according to analysts), he's one of the better high school bats available in the draft from what I gather from the comments. He should be available for either the #22 or #29 picks, maybe even our #32 pick.
- Matt Burgess: OF that caught my eye in one of the mock drafts, has a lot of power. He is probably available at picks #22 and #29, if others above are not available.
- Andrew Brackman: He's tall and has command problems. Some seem very high on him, but to me he's too chancy to pick at #10, though some think he'll be picked that high or better. And he definitely won't last to #22.
- Jarrod Parker: Apparently has drawn comparisons to Tim Lincecum. If he can last to #22, the Giants could pick him there, but #10 is too high to pick him.
- Josh Smoker: A strikeout artist, he seems to be slotted after the Giants #10 pick and before their #22. They could take him at #22 or #29 but he could be gone too.
- Casey Weathers: A closer that one analyst says the Giants are very interested in. But he won't be picked with the first pick of the round. And it doesn't seem like he will last to #22.
- Aaron Poreda: A USF student, like Foppert, the lefty starter can throw hard. He will probably fall down to the supplemental picks range, so the Giants could probably pick him anytime at or after the #29 pick
So now, what does this mean for the Giants six picks in the first 51 overall picks: 10, 22, 29, 31, 43, 51? From my study, with odds based on data collected:
- for the 10th pick: the odds of picking a good player is 22%. To get an idea of the amount of talent available, and to smooth out the data, for picks 5 to 15, the odds of picking a good player is 14% (19% for useful player).
- for the 22nd pick: the odds of picking a good player is 10%. To get an idea of the amount of talent available, and to smooth out the data, for picks 17 to 27, the odds of picking a good player is 8% (20% for useful player).
- for the 29th pick: the odds of picking a good player is 6%. To get an idea of the amount of talent available, and to smooth out the data, for picks 25 to 34, the odds of picking a good player is 9% (17% for useful player).
- for the 32nd pick: the odds of picking a good player is 0%; teams were unlucky before. To get an idea of the amount of talent available, and to smooth out the data, for picks 28 to 37, the odds of picking a good player is 4% (14% for useful player).
- for the 43rd pick: the odds of picking a good player is 6%. To get an idea of the amount of talent available, and to smooth out the data, for picks 39 to 48, the odds of picking a good player is 3% (14% for useful player).
- for the 51st pick: the odds of picking a good player is 0%. To get an idea of the amount of talent available, and to smooth out the data, for picks 17 to 27, the odds of picking a good player is 4% (14% for useful player).
As one can see, the odds are against picking anyone good, even with the first pick, the 10th overall. Hopefully they can beat the odds again like last year with Lincecum. Particularly if we can pick up some position prospects with those picks.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Giants Won't Skimp With So Many Draft Picks
The SJ Mercury reported in the sports recently (sorry, thought I had posted this already) that the Giants will be picking the best option on the board when they pick, regardless of whether it is a Boras client or top high school player who plans to leverage his college scholoarship.
The paper reported that the picks the Giants have this year early - 3 in first round, picks 10, 22, 29, and 3 in supplemental first round, picks 32, 43, 51 - signed for a total of $6.975M in last year's draft. This far exceeded what the Giants have spent in any draft before according to the report.
I would note here that with the $2.1M spent to sign Villalona last year (was not counted by reporter since not part of the draft) and $2.0M to sign Lincecum, the Giants still spent around $6.3M last year, so it would not be a huge leap to spend that much on bonuses this year versus last. Plus they overpaid Lincecum $200,000 over what one might expect based on the bonuses that had been paid already at the time of his signing, though toeing the line with the amount paid in 2005 for the #10 pick, so the Giants are not shy in giving out more money to keep the talent happy. Within reason, of course.
Giants Have Not Been Cheap, Just Different
The article also noted that the last time the Giants had multiple first-round picks was in 2001, when they selected Brad Hennessey with the 21st pick and Noah Lowry with the 30th pick. The picks were criticized at the time because neither were hard throwers plus the picks were viewed as financially motivated, the article added.
But as I showed in my post here, the Giants did not underpay them relative to the bonuses paid to the players selected right after them. For Hennessey, he got 11% more than the 5 picks right after him. For Lowry, he got 16% more than the 5 picks right after him. The Giants might have selected players that observers thought should have been picked lower but they weren't paying them like that. Their bonuses were in line with what the prospects picked afterward were getting.
Some critics of the Giants think the Giants are being cheap because they often select players were the critics are surprised that the player was picked so high, or was just surprised by the name itself, like Nate Schierholtz, when he was selected. I also did another study (sorry, can't find easily) where I examined how players were ranked pre-draft, and then comparing them to where the Giants picked them in the draft. In general, most of the picks, covering the first 3-5 rounds, were selected before where they were ranked, which can't be helped sometimes because your next pick often comes around in another 30 picks, but there were a lot of picks where the Giants selected the prospect more than 30 picks ahead of where they were ranked pre-draft.
While the Giants clearly march to their own drummer in terms of drafting (as noted already, Nate Schierholtz pick drew a lot of "huhs" and head scratching, though perhaps not today), and go their own way in terms of talent drafted, their bonuses still hew to the going market rates given other picks and are rarely under the bonuses paid to propects selected after them.
So the Giants have not been cheap with their talent, for the most part, but rather has followed a different path with their drafting strategy than the prevailing opinions, much like how Bill Walsh used to do all his scouting separate from the Combine and would surprise people with his draft picks. I think the Giants' rebuilt pitching staff, with mostly farm system developed players, shows the efficacy of his strategy thus far.
General Manager Brian Sabean said the club wouldn't limit itself to cheap,signable players when the draft begins June 7. The Giants plan to be aggressive, even if the player they like happens to be a Scott Boras client or a top high school player who plans to leverage his college scholarship.This was the strategy that the Giants espoused last year and which I had been expecting them to follow again this year. So it is good to know, rather than to wonder.
The paper reported that the picks the Giants have this year early - 3 in first round, picks 10, 22, 29, and 3 in supplemental first round, picks 32, 43, 51 - signed for a total of $6.975M in last year's draft. This far exceeded what the Giants have spent in any draft before according to the report.
I would note here that with the $2.1M spent to sign Villalona last year (was not counted by reporter since not part of the draft) and $2.0M to sign Lincecum, the Giants still spent around $6.3M last year, so it would not be a huge leap to spend that much on bonuses this year versus last. Plus they overpaid Lincecum $200,000 over what one might expect based on the bonuses that had been paid already at the time of his signing, though toeing the line with the amount paid in 2005 for the #10 pick, so the Giants are not shy in giving out more money to keep the talent happy. Within reason, of course.
Giants Have Not Been Cheap, Just Different
The article also noted that the last time the Giants had multiple first-round picks was in 2001, when they selected Brad Hennessey with the 21st pick and Noah Lowry with the 30th pick. The picks were criticized at the time because neither were hard throwers plus the picks were viewed as financially motivated, the article added.
But as I showed in my post here, the Giants did not underpay them relative to the bonuses paid to the players selected right after them. For Hennessey, he got 11% more than the 5 picks right after him. For Lowry, he got 16% more than the 5 picks right after him. The Giants might have selected players that observers thought should have been picked lower but they weren't paying them like that. Their bonuses were in line with what the prospects picked afterward were getting.
Some critics of the Giants think the Giants are being cheap because they often select players were the critics are surprised that the player was picked so high, or was just surprised by the name itself, like Nate Schierholtz, when he was selected. I also did another study (sorry, can't find easily) where I examined how players were ranked pre-draft, and then comparing them to where the Giants picked them in the draft. In general, most of the picks, covering the first 3-5 rounds, were selected before where they were ranked, which can't be helped sometimes because your next pick often comes around in another 30 picks, but there were a lot of picks where the Giants selected the prospect more than 30 picks ahead of where they were ranked pre-draft.
While the Giants clearly march to their own drummer in terms of drafting (as noted already, Nate Schierholtz pick drew a lot of "huhs" and head scratching, though perhaps not today), and go their own way in terms of talent drafted, their bonuses still hew to the going market rates given other picks and are rarely under the bonuses paid to propects selected after them.
So the Giants have not been cheap with their talent, for the most part, but rather has followed a different path with their drafting strategy than the prevailing opinions, much like how Bill Walsh used to do all his scouting separate from the Combine and would surprise people with his draft picks. I think the Giants' rebuilt pitching staff, with mostly farm system developed players, shows the efficacy of his strategy thus far.
Sunday, May 20, 2007
MiLB Prediction on Giants #10 Pick
MiLB's Jonathan Mayo made a projection of how the draft might unfold in a recent article. He thinks the Giants will pick Andrew Brackman, RHP, North Carolina State. Here is what he wrote:
There is also a draft report here plus there is a video link there too. Here are some key facts:
Given that they don't have a good catching prospect in the minors and already has a strong 16 year old 3B prospect, I would think that Matt Wieters would have the inside track even though Scott Boras is his agent and probably would want $4-6M in bonus when #10 normally get paid $2M. But Beau Mills appears to be a strong prospect right now and perhaps Frandsen could keep the position warm for Mills for 2008 or 2009, until Mills is ready, and the Giants just move Villalona to 1B (or even Mills there since his arm strength is suspect) - as much as they profess looking for talent over signability issues, that is a lot more to pay for your #10 pick and Mills appear to be equally strong as a hitter, though obviously Wieters play an important defensive position, catcher.
I'm a power guy so I would have to lean towards Mills right now. But either would be a great pick. I'm not so sure about Brackman, particularly since he is also a Boras client as well, but also because the Giants rotation is full already plus have Jonathan Sanchez capable of being a good starter already, why pay $2M+ for a starting pitcher who you might not have a spot for in your rotation, though I guess it would free the Giants to trade someone, but if they do that, signing prospect pitchers to such a contract might be not as likely as they would balk at the thought of signing a good contract then being traded off
Plus that goes for any starting pitcher, not just Brackman, as you don't want to pay that much for a reliever in the draft. You want an impact type of player, and in the Giants case, particularly a position player who is a hitter. Wieters and Mills appear to fill that bill.
The big guy finally finds a home. The Giants do have three first-round picks, so it will be very intersting to see how they go about picking and signing those selections. They generally scout players based on their abilities only and don't shy away from signability concerns. Brackman came into the season as one of the top couple of arms in the draft and the raw stuff has been there. But the performance has not. Some think that perhaps he's experiencing a dead-arm period based on the fact that the former two-sport star has never thrown this many innings in a season. How he recovers and bounces back from that could determine his ultimate draft position, but he's definitely in the Giants' conversation.
There is also a draft report here plus there is a video link there too. Here are some key facts:
- SP who is a junior, 21 years old, 6' 10", 230 lbs, so he's a big one. Throws and bats right.
- Throw fastballs 92-97 MPH, both a 2-seamer and a 4-seamer. 2-seamer has plus life and was effective in the zone, he commands it extremely well, hitting the inside part of the plate at will.
- Also has a knuckle curve (78-81MPH) and changeup (82-84 MPH), which is just average but he can throw strikes with it. Command of breaking pitches not as consistent as FB.
- Strengths include above-average velocity on his fastballs, with plus command of the 2-seamer; weakness include poor command of his curve, which pro hitters will be disciplined enough to lay off of if out of the zone.
- Problem area: obviously was a basketball player before, so he has never spent an entire college season as a starting pitcher, so his durability is a concern and needs to be watched closely.
Sounds like a nice prospect, but he's not worth the $2M we would have to pay him based on this description, he sounds like he only has his fastballs plus will have to be handled carefully to bump up his IP and build up his arm strength to handle a full season starting. I suppose he could be like our old F-Rod and relieve based on the two pitches, but I don't think the Giants would want to pay $2M for a reliever prospect.
Other Possible Scenarios
As noted in the article, whether the D-backs can sign Scherzer or not will affect how this draft goes, as it adds another top 5-10 talent into the pool of possibilities. If he does go back in (most probably not but the D-backs would at least get a supplemental 1st round pick, so they might not sign him), then perhaps the Giants might be able to pick one of the players just ahead who might fall down to them. Plus a name I see as a possible Top 5 pick isn't picked in the article:
- Matt Dominguez: He might fall to us if the Rockies don't pick him as projected in the article. He's 3B but only a high schooler. His main asset is his bat and power, he's average otherwise and has drawn comparisons to Travis Fryman.
- Mike Moustakas: If the D-backs don't sign Scherzer, it might domino a player they like down to them, leaving Moustakas for the Giants. A SS/3B, he can "flat-out hit" and has "serious power". He's also has played catcher before, so he has great arm strength. His main weakness is his defensive range, which probably limits him to 3B. Says both Dominguez and Moustakas, who happen to be teammates on the same high school team "have the chance to be special hitters."
- Matt Wieters: He was not picked in the projection but according to a few comments on MLB.com, the D-Rays and Orioles are considering him and they have Top 5 picks. He is a catcher AND he is his team's closer as well. So he could technically move from catcher to pitcher, get a guy out, then return back to catcher, assuming there is another catcher still available to catch when he relieves. A switchhitter, he can hit for average and power from both sides. He is one of the top college bats in the draft, with above-average power from both sides, and his arm strength and accuracy are strengths of his, his throws are always on target. Tall for catcher (6' 5") but Mayo thinks he can stay a catcher in the pros.
- Beau Mills: He also wasn't mentioned but I've seen his name mentioned as a possible pick by the Giants. A 3B for Fresno State, he hit 22 HR as a freshman, then hit 14 HR in his sophomore year, plus hit .355 with a .675 SLG. After academic problems forced him off the team, he landed with Giant's favorite college to draft from, Lewis-Clark State, and hit even better there, with 16 HR and .914 SLG. He is the son of the Red Sox's bench coach, so he is totally prepared to be a baseball player. A lefty, he has excellent hitting skills and plus power, and can punish any mistake. However, there are questions on his arm strength and thus he might end up at 1B in the pros. There are few impact college bats, so the Giants could pick him as they need help soon for their wunderkind starting pitching. I wouldn't call this a positive description, but some has compared him to Scott Spezio according to the scouting report Mayo filed on him.
Given that they don't have a good catching prospect in the minors and already has a strong 16 year old 3B prospect, I would think that Matt Wieters would have the inside track even though Scott Boras is his agent and probably would want $4-6M in bonus when #10 normally get paid $2M. But Beau Mills appears to be a strong prospect right now and perhaps Frandsen could keep the position warm for Mills for 2008 or 2009, until Mills is ready, and the Giants just move Villalona to 1B (or even Mills there since his arm strength is suspect) - as much as they profess looking for talent over signability issues, that is a lot more to pay for your #10 pick and Mills appear to be equally strong as a hitter, though obviously Wieters play an important defensive position, catcher.
I'm a power guy so I would have to lean towards Mills right now. But either would be a great pick. I'm not so sure about Brackman, particularly since he is also a Boras client as well, but also because the Giants rotation is full already plus have Jonathan Sanchez capable of being a good starter already, why pay $2M+ for a starting pitcher who you might not have a spot for in your rotation, though I guess it would free the Giants to trade someone, but if they do that, signing prospect pitchers to such a contract might be not as likely as they would balk at the thought of signing a good contract then being traded off
Plus that goes for any starting pitcher, not just Brackman, as you don't want to pay that much for a reliever in the draft. You want an impact type of player, and in the Giants case, particularly a position player who is a hitter. Wieters and Mills appear to fill that bill.
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