Your 2016 Giants: Belt Signs Five Year Extension for Total 6 years, $79M

News per Pavlovic (who appears to be the one who broke the news, saw his Tweet first) and Baggarly.

• Extends the $6.2M contract he signed to avoid arbitration this season.  At that time, Giants FO said it was a springboard to a longer term deal.
• Sets 2017 salary at $8.8M, covering his last arbitration year.  $6M gets paid beginning of year as signing bonus (does anyone know what accounting advantage teams get from doing this?)
• Then from 2018 to 2021, four years at $16M each
• Total:  6 years, $79M, just edging his Brandon buddy's $75M 
• Limited no-trade clause specifying 10 teams that he can't be traded to

Covers him to his 33 YO season.  He's says he's happy to be able to stay here with the rest of the core of the team.  Gave the team all the credit for his maturation as a ballplayer, and stated his appreciation for the organization.  

Evans also noted the fan and media speculation of Posey playing at 1B eventually.  He stated that there has not been any internal discussions of that, that Posey is considered the quarterback behind the plate and a major reason why pitchers like pitching for the Giants.  And thus no internal talk about moving Belt to another position.  

Your 2014 Giants: Javier Lopez Re-signed to three-year $13M Contract

As reported by all the usual suspects (here is the Haft analysis, for example), Javier Lopez signed a three-year $13M contract with the Giants and it just became official yesterday, after he had his physical.  To get him onto the 40-man roster, which was filled up by the recent promotion of minor leaguers ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, the Giants outrighted Jose Mijares to AAA, who, after clearing waivers (i.e. no team wanted to take him onto their 40 man roster, most likely because they would have to go into arbitration with him), elected for free agency instead of AAA, probably in hopes of finding a major league roster at a lower (but still higher than minor league pay) price point.  He was already being rumored to be a non-tender candidate (MLBTR had him pegged at $2.1M via arbitration)

Lopez was swayed by Sabean stating that the Giants wanted him back last season, apparently on more than one occasion.  It was "a big deal" to Lopez, as he had never had a GM do that before.  However, not swayed enough to sign before becoming a free agent, and it was reported that he had interest from up to 10 teams.  The biggest competition for his services had been reported to be the Nationals, because he grew up in the DC area and still have family and friend there who were hoping he would sign there.  However, he noted that he wants "to finish up as a Giant and that was ultimately a better place for me at this time."

ogc thoughts

About time, I was getting a little worried that the Nats might sway him, even though reporters noted that he would probably bring any deal to the Giants before moving on.  That is a great contract, it covers his 36, 37, and 38 YO seasons and as a LOOGY, he don't get used much, so his arm is still relatively unused, plus, in general, LHP seem to have longer careers.  It is also great as it worked out to $4.3M per season, and I and many others thought that he would end up with $6M per season.  And he just had his best season ever, so even if he declined some, he would still be great.  I'm very happy with this signing.

Looking at his stats, I noticed a very interesting anomaly, which speaks to the Giants magic with pitchers.  At the time he was acquired, his K/9 was 5.5 K/9 and BB/9 was 4.2, for a 1.33 K/BB and while he was pitching OK for Pittsburgh before he was traded to us, it was around his career numbers, 5.1 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9, 1.22 K/BB, though lower, as he had his worse season ever in 2009, where he was totally lost (6.9 BB/9!).  Here is his Giants career numbers:  7.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 2.24 K/BB, all very good numbers and a stark contrast with his career numbers before.  Before, 25% of inherited runners scored under his watch, with the Giants 12%.  And he had his best season ever in this too, with only 11% scoring, low before Giants was in 2004 with 13% and he had 19% in 2003, but from 2005 to 2010, before we got him, he had a 30% inherited runners scoring on him (for comparison, in 2013, the Giants overall had 29% - and that is including his amazing numbers, and the league average was 27%).  Now you see why the Giants had to get him back.

Relievers are not Fungible

And, of course, the sabers are probably laughing at this deal right now.  Many believe that relievers are fungible and easily replaceable and thus money should be spent elsewhere.   The A's epitomizes this concept with Beane getting rid of his closers like a fantasy baseball team, picking up good assets in return.  There is an article out there pointing out how easily teams could replace their closer, that having an experienced closer is not that valuable, since these teams could replace their prior, failing, closer so easily.

The problem, for me, is that this is not true.  If it was, we would not have gone through the Benitez Experience and the aftermath of that.  If Nen's production was easy to replace, then why wasn't the transition smoother, it took years before we got Wilson as a true valid replacement of Nen.  And for all you Sabean Naysayers, it is not just the Giants having this problem, other teams do too, plus the Giants history with the bullpen is pretty good overall, we have usually had a strong bullpen throughout the Sabean era, as well as picking up good relievers that others discarded, like Casilla and Eyre.

And just because you have a closer does not mean that he will come through for you when the chips are down in the playoffs.  You may be able to easily replace a closer, but none of the analysis I've ever seen on this subject takes into account the quality of the replacement.  Saves are always going to go to someone, and even the worse teams in the league will have a guy saving 30 games, just because someone has to get that opportunity.

Put another way, if finding good relievers is so easy and cheap, then why do so many clubs have problems with their bullpen?  Teams know their talent, studies have shown this, so then it would be an easy matter of dumping the pitchers who are not good and inserting in the good relievers that you can find so easily and cheaply.  By this logic then, every team should be able to have a bullpen group that is incredibly good.  The whole house of cards that sabers have built on their relievers are fungible concept falls apart given how hard it is to find good relievers, let alone good closers.

The Giants have had a great luxury over the past few years.  They have had at least three guys capable of closing for them:  Romo, Casilla, and Affeldt, plus Wilson previously.  If Hembree makes the team, we could be back up to four again, depending on Affeldt coming back from his injury marred season (I do expect that).   If you want that mass of talent in the back of your bullpen, you need to pay for them eventually.

Mijares Era is Over

We hardly knew ye!  He had an OK season, 4.22 ERA, but great 9.9 K/9 and 2.70 K/BB, which are all very good pitching peripherals, plus Bill James reported him at 63% strikes thrown and 16% swinging strikes, both good numbers, and he'll be only 29 YO next season, so why the DFA?  He could even be a pretty good LOOGY if given the chance, LHB only hit .276/.343/.367/.710 against him, very low OPS (though, wow, very high batting average and OBP), great 4.38 K/BB, and excellent 35 K's out of 109 PA.  I think it was a combination of things.

First of all, he's a reliever, but he wasn't good with runners inherited.  He allowed 41% of his runners to score, one of the highest on the team (second highest for relievers with 25 or more inherited runners; FYI, Dunning was first with 44%).  As noted above, the league average is 27%, so he was pretty bad.  And he had the second most inherited runners, with 46, only Lopez was higher (making his 11% even more impressive).

Secondly, on top of that, his leverage index was only 0.732, where 1.0 is average pressure, so it was not like he was used in high pressure situations a lot.  It should have been easy peasy to keep those runners from scoring.  And in his 16 high leverage situations, though he only gave up 4 runs out of 16 runners, an OK 25% scoring rate, emblematic of his struggles in such situations, his first one of the 2013 season, he came in with no runners and left with the bases loaded, and that was not the only time that happened in the season.

Finally, as nice as it is to have three lefty relievers in the bullpen, saving Lopez and Affeldt for set-up duties, the Giants probably are going to have a roster crunch there.  There are 7 bullpen spots for the Giants.  We already have Romo, Affeldt, Casilla, and now Lopez signed for the 2014 season and taking the key roles in the bullpen, leaving three.  Petit is out of options so he most likely will be our long reliever (as signified by the Giants releasing Moscoso recently), leaving two spots.

For those two spots, just from the expected relievers we had last season, these guys will be battling for spots:  Jake Dunning, Heath Hembree, George Kontos, Jean Machi, and Sandy Rosario.   I noted Dunning's problems with inherited runners above (his leverage was low too).  Rosario only had a 61% strike thrown and 13% swinging strikes, both very low, with a very low 5.2 K/9 while a very high 4.3 BB/9 for a lousy 1.20 K/BB ratio, all belying his 3.02 ERA (probably earned by his fellow relievers saving him from a much worse ERA).  Rosario's hold on a roster spot is probably as tenuous as Mijares if the Giants need another 40-man spot.

That leaves Hembree, Kontos and Machi as the most likely ones to win the two spots.  And after his sterling debut in 2013, I would think the Giants is hoping that Hembree is ready to take a spot in the bullpen (he had a great 66% strike thrown rate and 26% swinging strike).  Also, Kontos had a great 2012 for us, and admitted that he came into 2013 not in the best of shapes, so he's probably dedicated to returning to his 2012 form.  And Machi had a great season for us, and one of our fastest fastballs on the staff, 92.8 MPH average (though also high inherited runners scoring, 34%, but same as Kontos; Kontos ).  Plus, Derek Law really shined this season and continued it into the AFL, so he could be the dark horse for a spot.

If I had to guess, I think Hembree is being penciled in for a spot, similar to Wilson in his first try for a roster spot (he blew it with a poor spring), and that Kontos and Machi will be battling for that last reliever spot, with Law having an outside chance of earning it over them.  FYI, Kontos had a good 65% strike thrown rate and 17% swinging strike, and Machi had a good 64%, but excellent 18% swinging strike rate.

So it is already a pretty crowded and competitive situation in the bullpen, even without considering Mijares as an option.  And as much as Mijares could be a LOOGY, we already have one of the best in the game in Lopez, so it would be a luxury to have two.  So the writing has been on the wall, for a while now, as there has been talk since the season ended that he was one likely to be non-tendered.

Thanks and good luck to Mijares, he did great for us in 2012 (had a great 11% inherited runners scoring and 2.55 ERA), and helped us in the playoffs, especially in the NLCS with 3 strong appearances, 2.0 IP, one hit and one walk, with 3 strikeouts.   He will always be able to show off his World Series ring wherever he goes.

Wish List for Off-Seaon Before 2014 Season: Belt Getting Signed to a Long-Term Contract

One of the things I would like to see in the off-season is for the Giants to sign Belt to a long term deal, much like they did with Sandoval, Posey, Bumgarner in recent years, and Cain and Lowry long ago.

And why not?  He has been a good hitter for us, even though he had been hindering himself with bad mechanics, so one could say that the Giants over the past three seasons have been trying to "tame" a wild horse (giraffe?) with his benchings, which drew the ire of a part of the Belt fanbase.  And which he didn't go through much of in 2013 season anyway, he was the clear starter, I just think that some Belt fans just get a little over protective of him.

I've been expecting him to bust out sooner than later, and I think 2014 could be the year he does it, given that he finally changed his batting grip and had such great success with it.  So I think it is imperative for the Giants to work on signing him up long term, the sooner the better, but at least before the 2014 season.

Your 2013 Giants: Pence Retained For 5 Years, $90M

As announced on Saturday and finalized Sunday, the Giants signed upcoming free agent Hunter Pence to a new contract.  The Reverend will be getting $90M over 5 years.  There is a no-trade clause, and he got $16M for 2014, then $18.5M over the final four years.  It was also reported by Schulman that this was an ownership move.

ogc thoughts

Wow, that went at least one or two years more and $3-4M more per year than I had hoped it would be.  But looking at the two deals that Pence's side was using as guidelines - Ethier's 5 year and $85M ($17M per) deal and Werth's 7 year and $126M deal ($18M per) - I guess that is the new economics of today's baseball, and I do like Pence more than I like Ethier.  Looks like it is a meld of Ethier's 5 years and Werth's $18M.

In any case, I at least feel like we have a good chance of getting good value from the deal.  Unlike Rowand, where we had to hope that he maintained peak performance over a number of years (and he didn't even come close at all, he was only worth his contract for the first half season to four months, and it was downhill from there), Pence only needs to do what he has done for his career, and even with inputting an expected career peak decline, he should meet the value of his contract. 

That he's a super hard worker who appears to know what you need to do to stay in baseball shape (unlike Rowand who thought that riding a child's mountain bike was satisfactory exercise in the off-season to stay in baseball shape) and alters his diet (really, Paleo diet, snacking on kale?  My wife bought that stuff, eww, you really have to be devoted to stick to that diet full-time and Pence did) to maximize his body for baseball, you can't ask for more than that.  Plus, he helps the other players, like getting Belt to watch his "Dig Me" videos, a series of at-bats where he hit home runs, and his inspirational "rah-rah" in the dugout like he did in last year's playoffs.  The Giants wanted him for his whole package.

Giants Did What They Had to Do

And when push comes to shove it was a deal much like Bonds or Cain, where the Giants had to do a deal in order for the fan base to view the team as competitive.  That's why the deal got done the way it did, the early reporting was that the Giants and Pence were far apart - the scuttlebutt had the Giants at 4 years and $60M, a chasm apart - then right after the Willie Mac award game, Larry Baer and Pence are seen in serious conversation, then Pence announces to reporters that there a breakthrough in the talks, either very good or very bad.  Then it was soon announced that there was a deal, so obviously very good.  Clearly, the baseball side saw it the way most fans did, that above $15M is overpay, but then ownership stepped up and allowed the deal as Pence was willing to accept.

The deal was not a fait accompli in the preseason.  Back then, we had a very good rotation of Cain, Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Vogelsong, which looked pretty good then.  But after another disappointing season for Lincecum and a poor season from Vogelsong, we are left with just Bumgarner and Cain, with the rest of the rotation a huge question mark, starting with Lincecum leaving as a free agent, possibly.

That makes keeping the offense at the same or better level a very important requirement for being competitive in 2014, as we won in the early part of the season and late when Pagan got back, even though we had the diminished starting pitching.  That then made resigning Pence and making him a part of the team long term the #1 priority of the off-season, as DrB aptly noted in one of his comments here. 

Which led us to here, matching the current market conditions for a player like Pence.  With Ethier's deal, Werth's deal, and Boras starting at 5 years and $100M for Shin Choo Hoo (better than Pence), that set the basic parameters for the deal for Pence, the floor and the ceiling, making the math pretty easy, with only Pence agreeing to what was his minimums.  And he was at his word, taking a fair deal, because who know how mad crazy the free agent market could have gotten, even with his QO?  There were not that many players of his caliber on the market.

Plus, this is a message from ownership to the rest of baseball (and free agents) that the Giants are ultra-serious about winning in 2014, that they are putting their money where their mouth is, and stepping up to pay the price for Pence.  And to one particularly close free agent...

Next Up:  Lincecum and Lopez (though not in that order necessarily)

I don't have time - big project - to go over the whole transcript of the post mortem presser Sabean and Bochy had the other day (oddly, it normally is held the day after the last game, though the reason might be the flight Sabean took, which I'll get to later), but Sabean noted the importance of signing Lincecum and Lopez, as well as Pence. 

Not that the Giants aren't sincere, but Sabean's M.O. is to get his To-Do list done quickly without delay while Lincecum has often waited until the last second to get things done, so my guess is that the main goal of the offseason now is acquiring someone to anchor the middle of the rotation.  And frankly, Lincecum is not strong middle rotation material right now. 

Hence Sabean noting that they are pursuing another starter in addition to Lincecum, who is more a #4 today, instead of saying one more starter and seeing how Timmy goes.  This gives him permission to pursue that middle rotation guy without upsetting Timmy as to the sincerity of the Giants pursuit of Lincecum.  This way, Sabean gets that middle anchor, and Timmy would only be the whip cream on top to improve the rotation further. 

Though ideally the Giants want to get him signed up before free agency, so they are already in talks with his agent (co-inky-dink, same agent as Pence, so easy to shift conversation).

Prospects Stepping Up

I think Sabean's comment on prospects stepping up in the presser refers to the starting rotation (as well as other spots).  I think the plan is to find a reliable #3 starter, that's the #1 priority now that Pence is signed.  Then their 4/5 spots would be filled within, unless we can land Lincecum, in which case, he would be in the mix in the middle, leaving only the 5 to be filled.  Either way, here is where prospects need to step up and fill the back of the rotation.

Lincecum Price Tag

Rumor has it that Lincecum can expect to get at least a 3 year, $30M deal.  Really, that's all?  I would be OK with that.  With the QO of $14M for 2014 that the Giants already committed to offering (and paying should Lincecum accepts, and that is possible), that equates to $7M for 2015 and 2016.  I am willing to gamble that, for, at worse, Lincecum could start in 2014 then relieve 2015-2106.  We are already paying Affeldt $6M per to relieve.

As I noted in the other post, I think that the Giants will craft a deal with Lincecum using that $14M QO as a base, then a second year contract, maybe $7-8M base, plus bonus for hitting IP milestones which mostly corresponds with how well he's doing as a starter, maybe getting him up to his $20M standards if he reaches 210 IP.   Tim likes two year short deals, he's not going to get that much better than $14M for one year, which then values the second year ridiculously low, like a reliever, and this gives him incentive to perform well and earn that money as a starter.  Win, win, win (for the fans). 

LF Internal

As far as LF goes, I think that is also an internal fill where Sabean was referring to about prospects stepping up, unless someone interesting falls to them in the Jan/Feb timeframe on the cheap.  I think the visit to see Cuban free agent Abreu is more for due diligence, tire-kicking, and show than actual interest.  If they bid, it would be more to force the big money teams to step up and overpay, as well as give a show to fans that they are trying to improve.  It would surprise me greatly if they spent a lot of money to improve the offense, it was not the offense that was hurting (except by injury), it was the pitching, particularly starting pitching, that let the team down, start to finish.

As I wrote before, I think Belt in LF makes the most sense (and they can wait to spring training to make that move), opening up 1B for Pill to get semi-regular starts to show off what he got, but then starting Posey at 1B would only take Pill out of the lineup, not as big a deal as taking Belt out now.  They could also pick up a LF/1B lefty hitter, on the older side, to take a bench role as well. 

That leaves space for backup catcher in Hanchez, 4th OF in Blanco, plus two middle infielders, probably Arias and Adrianza, who, as it turns out, is out of options, so he's probably going to win a spot on the roster with an OK spring hitting, as he has some potential and a great glove.  Though I don't know if Noonan is out of options too, so it could be a battle.  And there is still Abreu, the oft-injured MI utility guy who has hit for us when healthy.  And who knows who else coming in.  It will be interesting in spring.

Your 2013 Giants: Long Term Eextensions for Sabean, Bochy, and Posey

I'm not going to bother providing all the links, just want to get this out, just check the usual suspects via links to the right (Baggerly, Schulman, Pavlovic/Mercury, Haft/sfgiants.com). 

Sabean and Bochy are linked deals again, sounds like the Giants torn up the current contract covering 2013-14 and gave them a new contract covering the next four seasons.  Rumor has it that they are getting somewhere in the $4M range, like another top baseball exec.  Well deserved for a job well done (twice! at least...).

Posey got a 8-year contract extension tacked onto his current contract, which appears to have been torn up, for $167M (it is an odd contract like Cain which includes his current contract for 2013 plus the 8 years, so technically this is a 9 year contract).  Here is the link where I got my news on this, from Haft. 

It covers his remaining three arbitration years plus five years of free agency, plus full no-trade provision, so he's here to 2021.  There is also a club option for 2022.  Posey:  "I'm thrilled."  Because this year was included, it is considered the longest contract for a catcher ever, beating out Mauer's 8-year deal, but short of Mauer's $184M contract value.  But Mauer's did not include any arbitration years, Posey does. 
Here are the gory financial details:

Posey will receive a $7 million signing bonus, according to the source. Having previously settled for $8 million this year, Posey now will receive $3 million in 2013, $10.5 million in '14, $16.5 million in '15, $20 million in '16 and $21.4 million per year from 2017-21. The 2022 club option is worth $22 million, with a $3 million buyout. Posey also will contribute $50,000 per year to Giants charities.

The Giants' commitment to Posey is nothing short of historic. It's a record guarantee for a player with fewer than three years of service time. Colorado outfielder Carlos Gonzalez set the previous standard with his seven-year, $80 million contract. It's also the biggest financial obligation to a player with fewer than four years' service time, exceeding the $151.45 million Colorado committed to first baseman Todd Helton for 11 years.

Analyzing the three arbitration years, using the 40%/60%/80% of market value rule of thumb, that works out roughly to valuing Posey at $26.25M market rate.  But then we get his free agent years at a lower "market rate", so it appears that the Giants front-loaded the contract on a relative market rate basis.

Mission Accomplished: Giants Sign Scutaro to 3 years, $20M

The  report I can find on this right now is Pavlovic's blog post and Baggarly's blurb which reports on a Ken Rosenthal tweet..  Not too much details, a reported three years for $20M for the Giants to keep Marco Scutaro.  Also, Baggarly tweeted that the Cards never went to three years for Scutaro, but apparently was offering 2 years in the $8M per range, which led the Giants to move to guarantee the third year, giving Scutaro an extra $4M for that third year over the Cards.

ogc thoughts

Mission Accomplished:  Giants wanted to sign Affledt, Pagan, and Scutaro, and they just did.  All the deals reflect the higher salaries being paid this off-season, which is most likely related to the $15-20M boost in revenues that they get from ESPN starting next season with their shiny new contract.

Yet still, the contracts were all relatively reasonable.  Affeldt got $6M per year, and given that League had already gotten $7M per year from LA, that was a fair price.  Pagan got $10M per year, which was the upper range of what I was hoping for (I was thinking $8-9M per, Randy Winn range, if I remember right), but many people were predicting 3 years at $10M, so 4 years at that rate is not outrageous.  And he doesn't even need to duplicate his 2012 season each season to pay off on the deal.  Plus, Victorino's deal for 3 years at $39M ($13M per) make the Giants deal look great, though I would note that one thing most people neglect to mention is that Victorino has many more years of good offensive production than Pagan, and that is the difference there (for Upton, it was his age and potential improvement).  And Scutaro, I thought, should get around the $6M per year that he got in his previous contract that he signed, given inflation and two more years on him, and he probably got $6M/$7M/$7M, which is close enough for me.  As Evans joked at one point, if he can survive that slide by Holliday and still play great baseball, he's going to be fine.

I see some people upset that Gregor Blanco is now the starting LF.  These are the people who are never satisfied unless every starter on the team is some sort of star player capable of great deeds.  Most lineups have a Blanco (actually, they have worse) somewhere in their lineup, and a Crawford, if not more.  These people never look at reality, at the actual teams making up the league and seeing what it takes to build an above average lineup.  And you don't need above average players at every position to do that, you need some really good players in the top half of the lineup - like Pagan, Sandoval, Posey, Pence, even Scutaro and Belt - because most teams cannot afford to have a better lineup than that, and if they do have it better, typically that means that they scrimped on their starting or relief pitching, and then the Giants got them where they want them.

Things left to do are few.  The Giants are interested in bringing back Theriot and I loved having him around too, he is a great backup in case either MI needs a rest or, god forbid, out for some reason.  Those complaining about Blanco don't realize that the Giants is looking for a right-handed complement to Blanco in the OF - ahem, Andres Torres is a free agent - and Nady wasn't so bad last season either.  Plus Peguerao was pretty interesting last season, great defense and speed, could be a Hanchez redux.  They are probably going to look into former starters on the fringe for AAA, just in case, though they did sign Hacker the other day and Heston, Kickham, and Surkamp should be in AAA as well (where's Petit?).  They are probably going to give some vet a minor league invite to compete for the bullpen, though if they prove good to form, they are hoping that Hembree steps up and take that last spot.  And, of course, Brian Wilson is still out there, hopefully he understands why the Giants did what they did and re-join us, this is the best place for someone special like him.  Otherwise, things are looking good for a defense of their championship in the 2013 season.

Go Giants!

Your 2013 Giants: Affeldt Signs 3 Years, $18M

As reported by the media for a while now, Jeremy Affeldt has re-signed with the Giants.  As reported  by Chris Haft (and in other sources as well), it was for 3 years, $18M.  Presumably, it is for $6M per year, but given that last year he got $5M and the Giants budget is already being stretched for 2013, it could be for $5M, $6M, $7M, which Sabean has done before for some contracts.  There was no mention of a signing bonus, nor boosts in contract value for awards that might be won, the details on this contract has been particularly sparse relative to before.

He said he did it for his family, to get financial security.  That refers more to the length of the contract, than the size, as he's already pulled in a lot of money in prior contracts.  He is a West Coast guy, having grown in the Northwest region (Washington), citing that as one of his factors as well.  He also is happy to be returning to his "Giants Family," which is what Pence was talking about in all his sermonizing.  And his actual family gets to continue to live and grow up in the San Francisco Bay Area, it sounds like, which I think is up there in his thinking as well.

ogc thoughts

I think this move had to be done and done first among the Giants free agents.  The Giants bullpen was a great asset last year, but that was in spite of the fact that we lost Brian Wilson for the season and potentially (probably, if we are being realistic, the Beard has been saying you can bet on it that he'll be there opening day) early 2013 too.  Casilla's issues also put a damper on things too, he looked like he would be the new closer after his 2011 season, but his blister (and probable mental issues) took him out of the job and pushed Bochy to go with the committee method until Romo took control by late season.

In addition, as we all know, pitchers are just more fragile in general.  And Romo, as we also all know, has not been a horse before, he has had elbow issues before.  And I was getting worried about him near the end of the season because his quotes were laced with comments about pitching until his arm falls off and how he'll answer the call no matter what.  That was similar to what Wilson was saying in 2010 and 2011, and we subsequently learned that his body was already starting to give out in 2010.

Given any team's need for a shutdown bullpen and Romo's history of questionable health, plus if Affeldt and Romo were gone, that means that we need to rely on Casilla solely as our closer, with only Lopez, Kontos, and Mijares as our set-up men in that case, the Giants had no real choice but to sign Affeldt to the contract terms that Affeldt wanted, which was 3 years (which, to be fair, is what relievers of his ilk has been getting, like League).  We need the redundancy as well as just for the overall quality of the bullpen.  He's a proven reliever, to get someone similar - and I mean similarly accomplished, not a reliever who did well in 2012 - would have cost us the same money.

I don't understand why Giants fans didn't get that last year or this year.  Especially after how 2012 unfolded, I could at least see their argument from last off-season (though I would still pick up his option), but after Wilson went down and Casilla proved not to be the long-term answer, and particularly after how well Affeldt did in the playoffs, I just don't see how anyone cannot see why we had to sign Affeldt.

I think the question boils down to this:  do you want to win another championship or do you want to save money?  I want another championship.

And it is not like the Giants don't have money to spend on him.  A lot of contracts are going off the books.  And while raises take up a lot of that, there is still money to get everything done, that is why Sabean was able to say at the time of Pence's trade that they were planning on signing both he and Melky to long-term deals.  Given the baseball rationale for needing Affeldt, I don't see why the budget could not also handle Affeldt.

Next up is Scutaro, according to media reports.  They are reporting that the Giants are optimistic (Chron), but if Scutaro were close, I would think the Giants would have waited to get him done before announcing Affeldt's deal.  According to the Haft account, Sabean characterized negotiations as "ongoing and upbeat" regarding Scutaro and Pagan.

Unfortunately, I think that this means that Scutaro is listening hard to other offers for the best offer, whereas Affeldt had an idea of what he wanted, and Sabean was willing to meet it.  Jeremy noted (good comment on Sabean's methodology, which I had guessed at before, good to see pointed out here by player):

Once the Giants proved willing to give Affeldt a three-year package, as they demonstrated shortly after the World Series ended, the bargaining essentially ended. 

"The Giants are aggressive," Affeldt said. "They don't sit there and try to lowball and figure out where to get to, if they have an idea of where [your salary] should be. I don't think Sabean messes around a whole lot." 

Affeldt indicated that he could have listened seriously to proposals from other teams. But, as he stated, he didn't have a reason to leave, especially since he and his family like the city, the Bay Area and the ballclub.

Nothing wrong with Scutaro kicking the tires with other teams - it is his right - but it just dampens my hopes of getting him re-signed.

Alternatives to Scutaro

Not that I think that he is totally critical to the Giants success in 2013.  He was certainly the catalyst for our offense in the second half after he joined the team, but expecting him to hit .362/.385/.473/.859 again is not a reasonable expectation.   Much more reasonable was his batting line from the past four seasons playing mostly full-time:  .290/.354/.404/.758.  Theriot hit this after he returned to action after his DL got him healthy and when he got replaced: .287/.345/.345/.679.  Which is basically his career line:  .281/.341/.350/..691.  And both are roughly equal in defensive ability at 2B and SS.  While he is not as good a hitter as Scutaro, is Scutaro worth $5, 6, or 7M more than Theriot?

On top of that, the Giants have two MI who could be pushing for the starting spot starting in spring training 2013.  Nick Noonan had a nice but not breakout season in AAA, but a vast improvement on his 2011 season in AA Richmond.  His batting line was not impressive - .296/.347/.416/.763 - but it is that bad either considering he was only 23 YO for the season and the average age there was 26.7 years for pitchers, meaning they had roughly 3-4 more years of experience over him.  The good news for him is that his contract rate was a nice 83% (85% is what good hitters do, but again, note the age disadvantage for him) and his BB/K ratio was an OK 0.48 (usually want at least 0.50).  If he can further develop in 2013, he could be ready for the majors by mid-season.

Of course, the main person on the radar for 2B is Joe Panik.  He has had a down year both in the Cal League, a hitter's league, as well as the AFL, so far.  Still, he hit a nice .297/.368/.402/.770 for San Jose, and more importantly only had 54 K's in 535 AB (roughly 90% contact rate, great) and had the excellent ratio of 58 BB/54 K, 1.07 BB/K ratio, as only the best hitters can get their BB/K ratio above 1.00, and he has done it two seasons in a row.

If he can maintain that in the majors, he'll be an elite hitter.  In the majors, hitters who can maintain a BB/K ratio of over 1.00 are more likely to hit .300 than not (51% of hitters with BB/K from 1.00 to 1.50 had over .300 BA, only 9% of them had less than .250).  Guys with contact rates of 90%+ averaged .290 in 2011 season.  So far, so good.

He should be in AA for the 2013 season, maybe AAA for 2014, assuming he continues to climb.  With some good hitting, he could be in the majors by mid-season 2014, age 23, or by 2015 season at age 24.  That's still pretty young age to be making the majors.

Between Theriot and the young prospects, the Giants should be covered adequately at 2B for the next couple of years (assuming the Giants are able to re-sign Theriot.

Alternatives to Pagan

Pagan is even easier to replace.  Blanco, while not as good offensively, should be as good or better defensively in CF.  Meanwhile, Pagan had a very nice 2012, but his three year record as a starting OF is .281/.334/.415/.749, which is nice but not $13.8M nice.  Blanco's stats, again like above with Theriot, might not be as good, but is Pagan worth $10M+ more than Blanco?  Blanco's stats in 2012 was very close to his MLB stats:  .244/.333/.344/.676 vs. .253/.349/.331/.680.  At leadoff, the most important factor there is the hitter's OBP, and both of their OBP are virtually the same.

Meanwhile, we can go in a number of different directions for LF.  First off is internally from our own roster.  As much as I like Brandon Belt at 1B, I assume that Posey and Sanchez will be sharing the catcher's duties again and likely push Belt off 1B starts anywhere from 30 to 50 games.  If he is hitting as well as he did last season, the Giants would play him in LF for that many games.  If he's playing in LF that much, maybe it would be better for him to start in LF instead.  In which case, the Giants could look for a free agent 1B, perhaps just a platoon hitting 1B, instead of a LF or CF.

There are other options in the Giants farm system as well.  Had he not gotten injured last season, Roger Kieschnick probably would have gotten a chance to play in the Giants OF last season, after hitting .295/.361/.581/.942 up to his season-ending injury.   Particularly with Schierholtz not doing that well before the Pence trade, and after Melky got suspended.  And he started most of the 2012 season in LF.  He strikes out way, way too much and likely would be even harder to get going in the majors than Belt, but he brings a lot of HR power, plus walks a lot as well.

Another potential option is Francisco Peguero.  While he only hit .272/.297/.394/.691 in AAA, he started the season injured and took a while to get into baseball shape, it appears.  From June on, he hit .308/.327/.411/.738, which better shows his hit tool, and he was only 24 YO in AAA.  Also showing that he might have been struggling all season with leg problems, he only had 1 SB attempt all season in AAA, but in the majors, in his September call-up, where he basically was Huff's pinch-runner, he stole 3 bases with no CS.

None of these options are necessarily better than Pagan, but at $10M or more in extra cost, is he going to produce that much more value?  That is at least debatable.  In addition, there is a multitude of players the Giants can sign to play LF (if Blanco plays CF), starting with their former LF, Melky Cabrera, who should be cheap and the Giants, according to rumors, are open to him returning (I'm OK either way, it is what it is, though I would prefer to move on).  Other names include Scott Hairston (Giants killer previously), Jonny Gomes (grew up in Bay Area, I believe he's a Giants fan), Reed Johnson (Sabean loves flexibility and he plays all three OF positions).  Also, MLBTR has mentioned that the Giants kicked the tires on Torii Hunter (who just signed for 2 years, $26M with Tigers) and Shane Victorino (Flying Hawaiian; love that nickname).

Victorino might be a nice addition at a lower price point given his poor 2012 season, but still strong SB skill. He did not strike out that much, it was in line with prior seasons, plus his walk rate was still within his career range, he might have just had a bad season at age 31.  Previously, as a full-time starter for 6 seasons, he hit .282/.348/.443/.791, and averaged around 32 SB in the past 6 seasons.  And he has been the equal of Pagan and Blanco in defense in CF, and great on the corners.  I think if we can get him for one season at half the money that Pagan is asking for, I would rather have Victorino for a season than Pagan for 2-3 seasons.  He would be a nice bridge to get us to Brown starting in 2014, assuming he does well in Fresno in 2013.

Then, there is 1B (if Belt plays LF) free agents.  I've always like Kila Ka'aihue bat, maybe we can give him a chance to figure it out in the majors.  Carlos Pena has been an OK defensive 1B himself, and provides a lot of HR power and walks.  He probably don't want to split time at 1B though.  Kevin Youkilis would be an intriguing choice, he provides HR power and walks as well, and has never really played a full season and been very part time in recent years, and plays great defense there, plus can play 3B occasionally too.

There are a lot of options other than Pagan.

The Melkman Cometh ... Perhaps to Stay?

I had wanted to post something on Melky Cabrera during the off-season, pulled a bunch of research, came up with a snazzy title :^), but never got around to posting one.  Just ran into my notes and he's been doing well, so I thought I would run with what I had before and give some further thoughts on maybe him sticking around longer.

Your 2012 Giants: Bumgarner Signs 5 year Extension for $35M

John Shea has news here and then Andy Baggarly here.

The details:

If he doesn’t qualify for Super 2 status, he’ll make $750,000 in 2013, $3.75 million in 2014, $6.75 million in 2015, $9.75 million in 2016 and $11.5 million in 2017.

If he does qualify as a Super 2 (by being among the top 22 percent in service time among players with two-plus years), the numbers would be $3 million in 2013, $5.5 million in 2014, $7 million in 2015, $10 million in 2016 and $12 million in 2017.

He gets a $1 million signing bonus with a $1.5 million optional buyout.

Bumgarner is signed through his first year of free agency, and the deal includes two option years: a club/vesting option for 2018 and a club option for 2019.

Shea also noted that according to SFX, which represents Bumgarner, this is the biggest guarantee for a pitcher with just one-plus years of service time.

Baggarly noted in addition:

The contract also includes two club options for $12 million in 2018 and ’19, and both have escalators based on the Cy Young Award. If Bumgarner wins the Cy Young at any point during the contract, both option years would be worth $16 million. If he has a second- or third-place finish in the Cy Young balloting at any point, the options would be worth $14 million.

Two more things about the option years:

The Giants have a buyout of $1.5 million that can apply to either option year. And the first option can become guaranteed (not a player option) if Bumgarner throws 200 innings in 2017 or 400 innings between 2016-17.

Doing the math: If Bumgarner is a super-two, he maxes out both options and the Giants exercise them, the total value of the contract could be worth as much as $70.5 million.

Oh, and Bumgarner has a limited no-trade clause in which he can name eight teams annually to which he cannot be dealt. The no-trade takes effect this season.

And two more things about the contract in general:

Bumgarner’s $560,000 contract for this season, which was signed in March, remains unchanged. Except he gets a $1 million signing bonus in the extension, half of which is payable this year and half next year.

Your 2012 Giants: Cain Signs 5-Year Extension, new contract

News on the new Matt Cain extension deal, announced about noon time:  Baggerly, Pavlovic, Schulman.

The basics of the deal:

• Old deal torn up so that Cain can have no-trade protection for the 2012 season as well as the rest of the contract, but he still gets "only" the $15M for 2012.
• He gets 5 additional years at $20M per season extension, signing him to his 32 YO season.
• He gets $5M signing bonus (which basically makes his 2012 salary $20M, probably not by coincidence).
• There is an option 6th year (or 7th if you count the current contract) for 2018 (33 YO season) that is a team option at $21M.  However, the option year vests into a player option at $21M if he meets 2017 IP target that basically means that he is healthy at that point of the contract.  He gets a $7.5M buyout from the Giants if they decline the team option.  If he earns the option year via vesting, he gets a $7.5M buyout if he declines the player option (in other words, he gets at least $7.5M :^).

Check the articles I linked to for more info on the firsts and mosts that this contract sets for pitchers and RHP.

Deadline Approach: Cain Cain Cain, Fans in Pain

As the season opener approaches, and the deadline Cain had set for settling the extension approaches, many fans are frustrated that the Giants have not backed up the truck and deposited the millions Cain is reportedly asking for (9 figures).  While I'm antsy too, this is just big business negotiating, there was almost no way a contract would be signed early.

As seen in many negotiations run in public, like strikes or union deals, or closer, in signing draft picks, things don't get done often until just before the deadline.  I still believe that this extension deal with Cain will get done.

Most importantly of all, that don't fit his behavior from before.  Both of his prior long-term extension deals were not deals for top money.  He could have pushed for more, like Lincecum did with the Indians, hence why I think Lincecum is the harder one to sign of the two into his free agent years.  And he seems like the same guy he was when he came up.

So if the rumors of the Giants latest offer is close to the truth - 5 years, $90M - I still believe that Cain will sign for something in the 5 year, $90-100M range, with possible kickers of one and maybe two years additional at $20M each, both vesting if he pitches enough innings, similar to Zito's option year.  That would bring Cain to the 9-digit level his side craves and that is the key here to understanding the lack of movement and the leaks of information regarding the negotiations.

Cain has new agents - his agents joined a new agency and turned over the reins to, I'm guessing, more senior and experienced negotiators in that agency.  They want to get every dollar out of the stone.  If you give up everything early, they will assume you have more to give and continue to haggle for money.  So had fans been in control and gave Cain the reported 6 years, $120M contract that they were rumored to be asking for, his agents would probably say, whoa there, that's nice, but we actually wanted more than that (agents are very smart - so are GMs - and they never give the other side exactly what their demands are, instead many floats balloons through willing media representatives), and negotiations would now begin on a 7 year, $145M contract (because by then he should get a raise).

It never ends.  Until the end, at the deadline.

So I assume the "impasse" means that the Giants are near where they are willing to pay but Cain's new agents want to make a big splash by securing the first 9 figure contract for a right-hander since Kevin Brown, and attract other top hurlers to join their agency by pointing to that shining example.  So with a couple of days left, I expect there to be movement and the Giants would finally move their final piece to move on the chess board, and with time running out, there will be a glorious press conference announcing that both sides had to give a little, but after kicking some tires around, they were able to come to a mutually agreeable contract, with both sides winning.

Of course, just my opinion, but given Cain's history of elbow issues (at least three reported instances in his pro career, and who knows how many unreported) and his agent's duty of fiduciary responsibility, they cannot in good conscience advice Cain not to sign a contract in the $90-100M range because that could all go away with one snap of something.  Just look at what happened with Ryan Madson, lucky for the Reds it was only a one year deal, but what if he was signed to a 4 year deal?

The bigger issue, to me, has always been Tim Lincecum, followed closely by Bumgarner.  Lincecum has asked for top dollar at every opportunity.  Not to say it wasn't undeserved, but still, that is his behavior.  And Bumgarner has deep family ties that I don't see how he don't end up with the Braves after his 7 years with the Giants.

Lincecum Signs: Two Years, $40.5M

Tim Lincecum has signed a two year, $40.5M contract with a limited no-trade clause (Baggarly).  $18M for 2012, $22M for 2013, $500K bonus (I still wonder what the accounting benefit to the Giants or Lincecum or both is, for having a bonus versus salary; does that go straight to Lincecum, avoiding the agent fee?)  The Giants had offered $40M and Lincecum's side asked for $44M, so the final contract figure ended up basically just over the Giants offer, which was very close to the arbitration submissions by the two sides ($17M and $21.5M).

The Giants reportedly had offered 5 years, $100M, but Lincecum's side turned that down, which I understand, because that basically values each year like the two year deal, at $20M AAV.  He is probably looking to get CC type money in his free agent years.  Lincecum had said in an interview late in the 2011 season that he preferred shorter deals because there's less pressure involved, but then when his agent asked for an 8 year contract, that statement just rings false.

Baggarly and Schulman followed up on the news with more focused posts.

Baggarly focused more on Lincecum's agent (and the Giants) saying that this deal does not preclude a longer term deal later.  He astutely notes that with the arbitration clock ticking, the impetus now is to get a deal done that stops that clock within that timespan, and the two sides were more in sync on a two year contract, and thus they got that done first.  He noted the example of Wilson signing to avoid arbitration, then signing a longer deal in the spring.  Lastly, he said that the payroll ended up a little less than the $130M announced cap.

Schulman had a nice post covering a lot of different things, I recommend checking it out for all the details, the link is above.  He noted two critical points:  1) that this does not mean that Lincecum does not want to be here long-term, and 2) Lincecum is taking the risk by accepting the two year deal instead of the five year.

Schulman also noted some interesting things about Cain:

If reports are true, Matt Cain is taking the opposite tack. He’s willing to accept a below-market, long-term deal in exchange for that security and stability. I’m told no deal is imminent with Cain.

Giants Thoughts

I like the deal but wish Lincecum had took the five year deal, though I understand why he didn't, the Giants probably should have offered something in the $110-120M range to get that deal done.  I like knowing that we have him for a long time, so this is disappointing in that it is only two years.

But the Baggarly post about Lincecum's agent's comments that this does not preclude a longer deal signed later was heartening, as that suggests that they and the Giants are planning on continuing to discuss the parameters of a longer term deal somewhere down the line, that the interest is there on both sides.

I was disappointed that there was no deal imminent with Cain, but also understand since the Giants were probably focused on all the arbitration deals.  Now perhaps they will work more diligently on it.  I didn't really think that a deal would be done until spring training anyway, I think both of his long-term deals were announced in spring training before, so why would this one be different.

So I'm happy but not ecstatically happy, but that's OK too, a $100M+ contract is just a lot of risk to take on.  If Lincecum is OK with 2 year contracts going forward, I'll be OK with that too.  But I would be just as happy to have Cain signed to a 5 year, $80-90M deal as well.  He's a Hoss.

Bill James Handbook: 2011 Giants Defensive Leaders and Laggards

Just got the 2012 Bill James Handbook, which has a TON of 2011 statistics that you can't get anywhere else, or hardly anywhere else.

The first thing I wanted to get into was the Fielding Bible stats in the front of the book, using their Plus/Minus system which they then translate into Runs Saved.  And generally, 10 runs saved is the equivalent of one extra win.

OK, going with my train of thought, to show the power that the Giants have with their great pitching staff, I plugged in the NL average RA (4.16) in 2011 and that is actually true, when I add 10 runs to the RS, that is pretty close to 1 extra win, 1.014 wins to be exact.  I think plugged in the Giants RA (3.57) and that works out to 16% more effectiveness in winning, 1.181 wins.  Or looking at it another way, the Giants only has to score 8.457 more runs in order to win one game, where the average NL team has to score roughly 10 runs.  In contrast, Houston had the worse pitching staff in the NL, and each additional 10 runs they score only gets them 0.861 wins, meaning they have to score 11.6 runs in order to win one additional game.

And one thing that is neglected to be said when it is noted that it results in one extra win, and that has always bothered me, is that this is a zero-sum game, so adding one win from 81 to 82 in a season, is actually a 2 game bump in games above .500, pushing you from 81-81 to 82-80, as it also takes away a loss.  Thus, adding 5 wins via player acquisitions pushes a team from 81-81 to 86-76.

Now onto the data.

Your 2011 Giants: Do or Die

Wow, much more exciting rush this last, roughly, week's worth of games (9 in total) left in the season than we could have imagined just a week ago.  That's what an 8 game win streak will do for you.

Still, 3.5 games back of wildcard (and another team in-between) and 5.5 games back of division title with only 9 games left in the season means that while the week should be exciting, the sands of time is pretty much gone and it is extremely unlikely that the Giants will even make the playoffs, let alone repeat.  Still, as the saying goes, you never know.

Let's take a look at the tough road to the division title since, although further back, the Giants have some control in their hands, due to the three games in Arizona in the middle, and they don't have another team to climb over.

The D-backs only have 8 games left, having played and, more importantly, won, yesterday.  Even if the Giants sweep the D-gers, in LA, and the D-backs, say, win 2 of 3 against the Pirate, at home (and they play at home the rest of the season), the Giants will still be 4 games behind when they go to Arizona.  Then, even if the Giants sweep the D-backs (and we will face Kennedy in the series), they would still be 1 game behind, with 3 to play, with the Giants facing the D-Rox at home and the D-backs facing the D-gers, again, at home, where the GIants need to win one more game than the D-backs just to tie for the division lead.

So, even if the Giants extend their winning streak to 14 games, they would still be 1 game behind and the D-backs get to play the woeful D-gers at home for the last three.  Though, to their credit, LA has been playing well as of late, despite losing Ethier for the season.  And the Giants will have to beat both Kershaw and Kennedy in that nine game stretch.  It appears oh so unlikely and oh so hard.

And we are playing the D-gers three games in LA now.  The first game is the marque game with Tim Lincecum facing Clayton Kershaw.  Kershaw's dominance over the Giants this season has been almost total this season, and amazingly, somehow, with only 18 team meetings, this will be his 6th start, so somehow Mattingly has manipulated the rotation to get Kershaw a start in each and every series the Giants have had with LA.  He is also going for his 20th win of the season and is 4-0 against the Giants this season in 5 starts, 1.04 ERA.  Yikes!  And the Giants don't have one of their major weapons against LHP, Cody Ross, as he's out with an injury (though as noted in my comments previously, Ross's poor 2011 season is directly related to his poor hitting against LHP this season).

Still, the Giants are amazingly 25-15 against LHP, and that includes their 0-4 against Kershaw.  And it is not like he has dominated them in all the games, though still 4 of 5, but in that other game, he only went 5.0 IP, giving up 4 runs, and that was in LA.   Teams normally do not face the ace of the other team so often, and if, say, two were switched over to one of LA's other sad sack starters, the Giants would be two games closer in both races and have a real chance of catching up, instead of an unlikely chance.  Taking out his games (which LA won 4 of 5), the Giants are 7-3 against the rest of the D-gers' starters, and 24-11 against all other LHP.

Let's see, LHP lineup is probably Torres, Keppinger, Beltran, Sandoval, Pill/1B, DeRosa/LF, Whiteside, Cabrera.

Game 2 has Ryan Vogelsong vs. Dana Eveland, a former A's prospect, and LA is his 6th team in the last 6 seasons.  At only 27, maybe LHP Eveland finally has figured it out, 2.25 ERA in 3 starts, but only 10 K's in 20.0 IP, and his BABIP has been very favorable, .262, whereas previously in his career, it was .347 in extensive opportunities, 95 games.  He's facing our version of that journeyman journey in Vogelsong, who in the last month has a 3.21 ERA in 7 starts, not as great as earlier, but still very good.  Should be a good battle, but as noted, Giants beat up on most LHP and Eveland has been extremely lucky with BIP so far in his starts and he's not striking out hardly anybody, on par with Kirk Rueter.

Game 3 has Madison Bumgarner vs. Hiroki Kuroda, the D-gers only other very good starter, Mattingly even managed to include him in this series.  However, he has only had two starts against the Giants and he was not that great, good in first start of year, 3 runs in 7.0 IP, but in the other start, 9 days ago, 3 runs in 4.2 IP with 8 hits and 1 walk.  And he has a 3.79 ERA against the Giants in 7 career starts (see how weird it is that Kershaw has 6 starts this season against the D-gers, Kuroda has pitched 4 full seasons now and will only have his 8th start in two days) so the Giants do hit him relatively well.

Meanwhile, Bumgarner completes our 3 headed dragon atop the rotation, showing way more maturity and gravitas than Dirty ever showed, even though Sanchez is older and has had way better stuff than Bumgarner.  Since Madison started his run of starts where he was striking out a lot more batters, on July 24th, he has had a 2.40 ERA in 11 starts, 75.0 IP, 67 hits, 78 K's and only 19 walks.  I heard on KNBR a debate on who would you rather have, Lincecum or Kershaw, right now, but really, we have our own Kershaw already in Bumgarner.  He should be able to keep LA down while the offense handles Kuroda enough to win.

Signing Young Giants Core

Shankbone noted in the comments that one of the key things the Giants need to do is sign their young pitchers - Lincecum and Cain - to long-term contracts this off-season, and I totally agree.   But writing this, I realize that the Giants should also try hard to sign Bumgarner to a long-term deal as well (and maybe Shankbone meant him too, I just know I didn't think of it until now).  Unfortunately, they had that disagreement about how much Madison would make this season, and so the Giants just enforced their figure, so Bumgarner's side will probably want extra to make up for that.  So I suspect that his agents will play hardball on a long-term deal, much like how Lincecum's agents did that, and thus no long-term contract yet with Tim-meh.  Still, the Giants should at least kick the tires on that with Madison.

And I expect them to at least broach that.  This is the similar timing when the Giants signed Lowry and then Cain to their long-term deals, and I'm sure they approached Lincecum's agents and was rebuffed.  Hopefully they can get him signed.

And while they are at it, may as well try to get Posey and Pablo signed as well.  Buster Posey's leadership and presence in the lineup and the field spoke volumes between what happened last season and what happened this season.  Normal players don't do that, but potential Hall of Famer's do.  Teams need leaders and Posey is a natural-born leader, just give him a Longoria type contract.

And Pablo Sandoval is a great hitter, let him worry more about getting hits than worry about his future with the Giants.

And the price for either will never be this low again, not that we should short-change them, but that if we wait any longer, I think their awesomeness will be that much more apparent and thus will cost more to get.  Get them signed long-term as well as the pitchers.

Unless a miracle happens and we somehow make history and get into the playoffs, the Giants fan base will want some sort of feel-good news to get them through the winter.  Signing all these players to long-term contracts will leave a sunny glow that will last all the way through to spring training I think.

You Never Know But, You Know, It's Pretty Much Over

And history still might happen.  The more I think about it, the more I think Kirk Gibson is a Billy Martin type of manager that can get lowly talent to play above their heads for a season.  No way their team should be so high up the standings, but to their credit, they are.  They went 18-3 over that incredible stretch where they took their huge lead.  And they are now 11 games above .500 in 1-run games, which normally does not happen.  And they are 6 games above their Pythagorean W/L.

But when the cracks start to appear, players could start to press, causing a downward cycle.  They recently lost 3 in a row, but have now won 2.  Will they steady their ship, or would cracks continue?  Still, with so few games left, they would have to have an epic type of collapse to enable the Giants to get back into the race substantively.  Very unlikely.

So enjoy the rest of the Giants season, but don't get your hopes up too high.  I've already mourned for this season and will just enjoy the rest of the games that we have left, and hope for the best.  I curse Cousins and what might have been, but that's life sometimes.  I won't get my hopes up too much unless we can get to within one game of the playoffs.

Go Giants!

Lincecum Signs: Two Years, $23M

I discussed much of this at my other blog post regarding his arbitration hearing. He signs for two years, $23M. $8M in 2010, $13M in 2011, $2M signing bonus, $1M per year, plus performance and award bonuses (just in case he wins another Cy Young). There is a good overview on the deal on San Jose Mercury and Andy Baggarly comes through again with great intell on his blog, including the figures on what he'll get for which awards he wins.

Great deal for both sides, lets each side breathe for the next two years without contract rancor, both sides wins a little, gives a little, and Lincecum is set for life. And there is nothing to prevent the Giants from working out another deal in the next two years to tie him up his last two arbitration years and into his free agency years. I think deals approximating King Feliz and Verlander's recent deal, but about $10-15M more, would be amenable to the Giants in the next two off-seasons.

This just goes to show how unreasonably worried fans were about the whole situation, and particularly all the bashing the Giants got (and I did some too) from many fans for "dissing" our star, do they know what they got? The Giants know what they got, but they also have a business to run and there were historical precedents that suggest that the Giants had a good chance of winning the arbitration hearing, which I pointed out in my other blog post and comments.

So instead of having one winner and one loser in the hearing, the two sides worked it out, with basically the Giants getting what they wanted - an $8M salary in 2010 - and Lincecum getting his $13M request in 2011. They both win.

Sabean Naysayers Exposing Their Bias

As I've been saying for a while now, fans show what their true feelings are when they react to any potential news for the Giants. Sabean-Naysayers will bash him to pieces for the alleged mis-action, and the Sabean-Supporters will praise him no matter what (though they are a much much rarer breed).

I would label myself in the middle. I not only bring my experience as a Giants fan since 1971, but my interests and experience in business, and my experience in math and statistics, which I applied daily as an analyst for the past 25 years. You cannot be blinded by your feelings one way or another, you have to look at the situation as clear-eyed as you can. And I have been like that as a fan since I first became one, telling my few fellow Giants supporters on the East Bay that there was no way the Giants were contending during those mediocre 70's while they were talking big about the season.

As I've been saying for a while now, Sabean is not the be-all and end-all, he has made many mistakes, the latest of which was the acquisition of Ryan Garko. But you have to view the big picture and not throw the baby out with the bath water. You have to see if you like the team as it is and where it is headed. That is why I supported giving him the prior two-year contract and again when he got his latest two year contract. He has done a good job overall.

The big picture is that the team is in great shape right now. Our pitching is among the best in the majors. It could be the best once Bumgarner joins the rotation. We have a strong bullpen anchored by Wilson and Affeldt (but he's going to want a lot to stay beyond 2010 now). Our offense, while not good by any means, it does not have to be good, it only has to be average in order for our team to win 90+ games and compete to get into the playoffs. And if we have another good year, free agents will suddenly find our ballpark to not be that bad for the money and be more willing to sign on in hopes of being that last cog to bring us a World Series championship.

In addition, our farm system is looking good. Posey, Bumgarner, Wheeler, Neal, Kieschnick, Noonan, Crawford, RRod, Adrianza, and Joseph, are all good prospects, and if Villalona ever gets over his legal problems, he would join the list too. I would also add Bowker, Schierholtz, Burriss, and Frandsen, as they are not prospects anymore, but could become contributors. All we need is one or two other position players to pay off, besides Posey, and we have a nice looking lineup within 1-2 years led by Sandoval and Posey plus those other pay offs. I would keep an eye on Neal and Noonan near-term, RRod and Adrianza long-term, among the prospects, and I really like Bowker's and Schierholtz's chances.

Change Does Not Equal Improvement

Plus, switching does not mean that things will improve. That is a fallacy that those who demand that Sabean be replaced are getting wrong. Neukom could decide to bring in a retread loser, like that guy who ruined the Mets, don't remember his name, among others. And even if they hire a young stud, just because the guy is young does not mean that he knows how to do the job, as he is most probably inexperienced and could just flub the job.

What people forget is that not only was selecting the players a decision he made, keeping them is also another decision. And in terms of prospects, he has not been wrong in giving up on them many times. And he has kept the prospects that has mattered thus far: Cain, Lincecum, Wilson, Sanchez, Sandoval. I think other prospects will be added to this list in a year or two.

Sabean has not done a perfect job, but he has done a good job overall. Yes, if free agent signings had been done better, we would have more money, but as we saw this off-season, just because you have money does not mean that good players will come here. And I shudder to think what if we had not signed most of the players we did, we would have Lewis in CF (where his defense would be exposed), Burriss at 2B or SS, and who know who we would have at C, Edgardo Alfonzo? When a team has holes and needs to get someone off the free agency to fill a position, you sometimes just have to hold your nose and sign the best you can for what was available. With his trades (and decisions to not trade good prospects), he has shown that he knows talent when he sees it, most of the time.

The more important thing is that the team is looking good now, in the near future, and longer-term. The team has one of the best defenses, lead by their pitching rotation. It looks to get better shortly once Bumgarner gets put in the rotation, and longer term when Wheeler makes it up here. The offense is led by Sandoval and he'll be supported by Posey in 2011 and beyond, and I think at least two among Bowker, Schierholtz, Neal, Kieschnick, and Noonan will rise soon and be significant cogs as well. We also have RRod, Adrianza, maybe Villalona, and perhaps others longer-term.

And with their renewed emphasis on getting good Latin talent signed, they could have more in the pipeline. Plus, once they start winning regularly again, with their poor back of the first round draft pick, hopefully they can start devoting money towards those who fall because of signability concerns, like how the Yankees, Red Sox, and Tigers, among others, have been doing in the back of the first round. Both would help our farm system going forward, in addition to starting to be more active in the Asian prospecting arena, which they said they were going to do, but of which there is no evidence yet, unlike their signings on the Latin side with Villalona, RRod, and other big money signings.

Go Giants!

Timmy in ArbitrationLand: Long-Term Contract Soon?

Great news yesterday from the Chronicle's John Shea: the Giants and Lincecum are negotiating towards a long-term contract that gives him big money and the Giants cost certainty. Reportedly, the Giants have offered a three-year, $37M contract that would pay Lincecum $9.5M in 2010, $12.5M in 2011, and $15M in 2012, which Lincecum's agents countered with one north of $40M.

Giants Thoughts

Typical, just like for the draft bonuses, it often takes the pressure of the deadline - in this case, the hearing - to get both sides moving.

That is not a huge difference between them. The article said that it is believed that the agent asked for a first year salary of $13M, but if that is true, then the counter-offer from the agent could only be a almost flat salary structure, say, $13M, $14M, $15.5M for $42.5M total.

I chose that figure because when they say "north of $40M", that to me implies that it is in the low $40M, roughly $40-45M but more than less. Else they could have chosen "close to $50M" instead if it was over $45M. Thus, the difference to me is between $3M and $7M.

That is roughly only $1-2M difference on a annual basis because it is a three year contract. A difference like that can be negotiated relatively quickly I believe, and thus I think that the arbitration hearing will not be held and instead there will be an announcement of a long-term deal signed.

Looking at the amounts the Giants offered, given the 40%/60%/80% rule that sabers use to approximate what a player might get in their three years of arbitration, and assuming a Super-2 is around 30%, their offer roughly values Lincecum around $25-30M per season, which seems around right. Tack on a few more millions, and that would put Lincecum right around $30M, which seems fair to me.

That makes a lot of sense. Neither side wants to do the arbitration hearing and Lincecum appears to love being a Giant. And putting the team under the arbitration thumb would make planning hard, which means the Giants would have to hold back each year on acquiring players for fear that Lincecum might break the bank. That would make it harder for Lincecum to get wins, and for the Giants to get wins, which neither side wants.

Lastly, I wonder if there is a vesting option for his final arbitration year, much like how Lowry and Cain had those on their contracts, and for what amount. If the valuation is around $30M, that option would have to be around $24M then (at 80%).

A shorter deal like this makes more sense for both sides. The Giants do not want to be saddled with a contract that could cripple the team if Lincecum goes down for whatever reason. Lincecum's agent is salivating for Tim's free agent years. And presumably, the Giants would be open to signing Tim to an extension deal in a couple of years to try to keep him into his free agent years, and that works for both sides too, as Tim is so young that even with another extension, he would still be around 30 when he free agents after that. And remember, Zito's contract ends when Lincecum becomes a free agent, so a lot of money would be freed up at that time and the Giants could even go even longer than a year or two in that extension, depending on how much Tim loves being a Giant.

Other News

Also noted was that Todd Wellemeyer received a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training, with the view that he would be competing for the long relief role. But he had last been a starter, so he would probably be providing depth to the starting rotation in case anybody needs to be replaced. It is one of those split deals where if he makes the majors, he would get $1M with performance bonuses that could add another $500K.

Giants Sign Freddy Sanchez: 2 years, $12M

Announced late Friday, the Giants signed Freddy Sanchez to a reported (Chron's Schulman then Merc, based on what sfgiants.com's Haft wrote), 2 years, $12M contract. Reports from sfgiants.com, Chronicle, and Merc. As a side note, Noah Lowry (unsurprisingly), Justin Miller, and Kelvin Pichardo have been released, freeing 3 spots on the 40 man roster. Baggarly also noted that the following players are eligible for arbitration: Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson, Jonathan Sanchez, Brandon Medders and Ryan Garko. Plus, the Giants are having conversations with all their free agents, but only about what the Giants are thinking, not that the Giants necessarily want them back.

Sanchez could have had an $8.1M contract for 2010 if he really wanted to, so in essence he is being paid $3.9M for 2011. Given that Hudson, a comparable 2B, last season only got $3M plus incentives (which eventually got him a total about $8M, if I recall right), Sanchez was trading off the risks that 1) he could be in Type A free agent hell for two years, not knowing who he would be playing for, and getting stuck with which ever team happens to be looking for a cheap 2B, and accepting whatever contract they offer, particularly considering his injury problems this season, and 2) he could be injured again, you never know considering he's entered his 30's, look at what happened to Ray Durham, healthy all his 20's then every, s-i-n-g-l-e season he's injured.

For that, he knows he's playing for a good rising team that was in the playoff hunt in 2009 and possibly the next two years plus don't have to worry about where he's going to be for the next two years nor what contract he might end up with. And there's the injury thing.

Also, for what it's worth, he felt bad that he was not able to contribute to the pennant run, as was intended by the trade, and that the Giants traded a "pretty high prospect" for him.

Giants Thoughts

Not surprised about a deal, I expected a deal to happen. But 2 years at $12M was an unexpected and nice surprise. I thought that perhaps the 3 year $20M offer that Sanchez gave Pittsburgh might be resurrected, but this is even better. Perhaps he wanted security for now but wanted to test free agency with a healthy body next time. Taking one year at lower pay when there is an $8.1M option doesn't make sense, but a 2 year at these terms does.

That's why all the hand-wringing a lot of Giants fans (i.e. the section of Sabean Naysayers out there) did, worrying about what might happen, was all for naught. They just automatically think that Sabean is going to screw it up in some way, but as I noted, it made sense for both sides to work out a deal for a reasonable amount of money. So we did end up with somebody good for Alderson, and given how poorly he was doing in AA for the Pirates, it looks like we sold high, and all the angst over Franchez was much ado over nothing.

Not surprised that Lowry was released (technically, his option was turned down and then he was outrighted, so as to avoid arbitration, and now he has the right to turn down the assignment and become a free agent, which will happen). His agent accused the Giants staff of incompetance, which is pretty silly because Lowry had problems that had never been seen in baseball before, they had to go to another sport to find such an instance. The Giants said that they are still open, but there is no way they can come back to the Giants and not look bad for the lawsuit that appears to be percolating on Lowry's end. Good luck with your career Noah, thanks for all the good pitching.

I was a little surprised by Miller being outrighted until I found out that he's up for arbitration. With so many players up for arbitration, they probably thought that they could outright him and then try to keep him as an option for next year, since he was signed to a minor contract last year and had his arm surgery. Medders, however, would have been a hot item on the free agent market. I think Miller will stick around and the Giants are talking with him.

Kelvin Pichardo's release possibly ends the Michael Tucker saga in SF. Pichardo was who we got in the trade for Tucker and for a number of years, it looked like he might make the team as a reliever, but despite good numbers in the minors, he never got the call up to the majors, even when basically every pitcher on the 40 man got called up and got at least a cup of coffee in the majors, in 2008. He's probably gone, probably will sign up with someone else since it doesn't look like it's going to happen here.

I am good with the deal for Sanchez. Forget his great season, that's ain't happening again. Still, if you average what he did in his other four seasons, that's a .326 OBP and .407 SLG for a .733 OPS. Plug that into the lineup calculator, compare batting 2nd (which is where the Giants envision him hitting, though apparently 3rd is an option too; .250/.299/.332/.632) with what we got from batting 2nd last season (guys hitting 2nd in lineup didn't do much better than the 2B too; .236/.281/.329/.611), and we add roughly 0.15 to 0.2 runs to the lineup, just with that one move. That would move us from 4.06 runs per game to at least 4.2 runs per game, maybe 4.25 runs scored per game, which, if our pitching holds up, would add two wins to our team.

We should also have improvements at 1B (Ishi-Garko platoon) and SS (Renteria healthy and back to normal offense), plus possibly 3B (Sandoval produce over full season) and RF (someone got to do better than what Winn provided, either Schierholtz or Bowker), leaving LF for a possible free agent or trade acquisition for an upgrade.

Plus, over the last two months of the 2009 season, after the acquisitions for the offense, the team averaged 4.24 runs per game. Obviously, a big chunk of that was from Uribe (who according to the press conference is looking to go free agent, not surprising), but what I wanted to show is that improvements we already have now at 2B, 1B, and SS (relative to 2009), should be at least equivalent to that uptick in offense, meaning that is not a pipe dream that the offense could be improved over last year's 4.06 runs scored without any new additions.

Still, hopefully the Giants can take a calculated risk in the free agent market and improve the team to get us to the 90+ win range. And not just by adding a power hitter but also by adding a #5 starter who can do better than what we got from our #5 starters, Randy Johnson, Ryan Sadowski, and Joe Martinez (obviously, Brad Penny did pretty well). Plus, if Sanchez can continue to improve, that would also help too. Same with Zito.

As I've been noting, I'm happy with how the Giants are set up for 2010. We have clear areas of possible improvements in both our offense and pitching that look like we have a pretty good chance of improving on the number of wins we get in 2010 over 2009. Still, enough could go wrong that we could take a step back in 2010 too.

As much as I would like to see Posey starting, I think the Giants are going to follow the Orioles/Weiters route and acquire a catcher to be the starter holding the seat warm for Posey in 2010. Given that Weiters is considered a better hitter than Posey and yet did not do that well in the majors until his last month, it might behoove the Giants to keep Posey in AAA for most of 2010, and just get him ready for the starting job in 2011. Research by Baseball Foreaster showed that it is usually better to keep the prospects in AAA for a whole year in order to have a better feel for the prospect's true abilities and have a better chance that he succeeds when he does make the majors, than to assume his good hitting over a partial season will hold up on the majors.

According to the news from the press conference announcing Sanchez's deal, Sabean "sees a late-developing free-agent market, particularly for the Giants, because he feels no desperation to sign players." That does not preclude the Giants from pursuing one of the bigger names (Holliday and Bay) as they are usually late developing too, particularly Boras clients. But it probably does mean that it will be a relatively slow off-season for Giants news, as the Giants will not be actively pursuing many (if any) free agents for a quick signing. That probably means no quick signing of a reliever, like we did last year with Affeldt and Howry, or a LF, at least initially. And that could have been predicted once the season ended, not a lot of spots open on the team, as much as people want wholesale changes on offense.

Late (meaning Jan/Feb 2010) signings for LF, RF, 1B, and 3B (and I suppose C) are possible as the Giants take a chance on somebody and giving them a chance to win a starting spot or a vet is unsigned and looking for a spot. That's also when teams have released arbitration eligible players in December and they could be available in that time frame and desperate for a shot somewhere, anywhere. I would also throw out Dallas McPherson's name out there, if he's healthy and hitting in spring, he could push Sandoval to 1B and get a semi-starting job at 3B.

Sabean also noted that he's working on stabilizing the top of the order (1-4), and the only way we can stabilize leadoff is via signing a free agent leadoff hitter. The premier free agent there would be Chone Figgins, who could play 3B or LF for us full-time, or move around as needed, though he would probably prefer to be in one spot, and as a free agent, that could become something that he is looking for in a team. If they got him, the Giants would be set at three of those spots: Figgins, Sanchez, and, of course, Sandoval, and might leave batting 3rd open for Schierholtz or Bowker to try to win.

Also, since they are looking at Franchez batting 3rd, I have to assume that could mean Renteria 2nd, Franchez 3rd, and Sandoval 4th. The news keep on focusing on getting a cleanup hitter, but Sandoval is that already, in my opinion, so they could go this route during the season. And that would work if Renteria was back to his normal self (heck, if he's back to his normal self, he would probably be better off hitting 3rd).

Sabean and Bochy Sign For Two Years Plus Option

The news has been reported by both Baggarly and Schulman, plus, of course, sfgiants.com by Chris Haft. Baggarly then blogged the details of the press conference.

Of course, I'm happy because I think Brian Sabean has put together a good foundation for a playoff competitive team over the next 5-8 years, and I think with further development by Posey and Bumgarner, plus Wheeler reaching his potential, that the team is poised to be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs every year, barring significant injuries to key players. He deserves the opportunity to see what he can do with the team he has put together.

Now, if only fans would be more patient with a rebuilding team, a potential masterpiece is in the making. The team is rebuilding nicely and have all the core pieces they need - plus extras - that should help propel the team to greater heights. We still need a few more pieces and hopefully Sabean can get or develop them.

Somebody commented mistakenly that following this plan guarantees anything. There are no guarantees, as King George has learned with his $200M payroll. However, as long as the players stay healthy and the top prospects develop as expected, the Giants should be in good shape and position for the next 5-8 years to win it all.

I think that is all you can reliably ask for, though, that said, if we don't win a World Series championship within this winning cycle, then I think it would be time to let Brian Sabean go. And he should be let go sooner if we are struggling to win a title, let alone get into the playoffs, within the years of his new contract. Because I'm not happy with Bochy, so that's on Sabean, and if Bochy screws things up, I would be OK with getting rid of Sabean in two years, and replacing the two of them. We need to see progress still with this contract for the two of them, and the first leg of this gaunlet starts now, with this off-season.

I don't really expect a middle of the order bat to come out of nowhere. My best bet previously was Jason Bay, but now I think he's going to be overpriced. I think Sabean will work at getting either a leadoff bat or a bat that is patient and can get on base a lot, both by hits and walks. Or possibly both. I think at least one will be by free agency.

I don't think that there is anything good available via trade, though a dump of a unwanted player (like Milton Bradley) could be a possibility, with the Giants taking on his whole contract without giving up much in prospects, as the trade off.

Because of the current bad batch of free agent hitters (i.e. no impact middle-lineup hitters), I think the Giants will do like last off-season and try to improve the pitching. So I think they will try to re-sign Penny for a year and, with the bad economy plus his poor year overall, he could agree to one with incentives that will be paid in future seasons (that would help the Giants with payroll this season to afford him). He seems to be a bad-ass and I think he would love to stick it to the D-gers by helping the Giants win the title in 2010. However, it is possible that a NL team might go multi-year with him and take him away. But if everyone is leary and go with one year, he should be ours, as the Giants indicated interest, but not money to do it.

And, now that the AFL roster appears to have been reconstituted because of the September call-ups - both Posey and Runzler are no longer on the roster - I take it that the Giants have seen enough of the two of them to determine what they are going to do with them next season. Runzler, clearly, is slated for the 25 man roster.

Also, Bochy has already noted that Posey could start if he does well in spring training, so I have to assume that they will sign a catcher to a one year contract, with that player fully understanding that the Buster Posey era could start at any minute. And all Posey has to do is keep up the good work during spring training and he is the starter.

That should mean that Bengie Molina should be gone for 2010. Whether we get any draft picks or not for him will depend on whether a team signs him before the deadline and give us two picks, as I don't think the Giants will offer him arbitration, as having him on the roster will 1) take up more payroll, a lot of payroll, meaning they can't get a pitcher or hitter they want more, and 2) having him would complicate thing with Posey, because at that much pay, he's probably playing most of the season, and Posey would just stay in AAA.

And I don't think that is good for the future of the Giants. Posey needs to spend a good part of 2010 in the majors, acclimating to the majors, the lifestyle, the pitchers, his pitchers, before he's ready to really contribute in 2011. Kind of like how Will Clark had his first season before really breaking out the next season. And if he is a fast learner and start contributing in 2010, all the better for us to do more damage in the playoff scramble.

Why I Like Sabean (Again)

Someone on Andy Baggarly's blog, Extra Baggs, complained about Sabean's poor trade track record and in general dissed Sabean. Here is my response there:

Why are the Giants winning? Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson, Romo, Valdez, heck, Affeldt, Miller, Medders, Johnson. In other words, the pitching staff.

Who put that together? Sabean.

What's the bottom line? Winning.

What has Giants been doing more than any of you expected? Winning.

GM's don't get accolades for being the most prudent with his budget. Nor do they get accolades for being efficient with his spending. And no GM is ever not going to make a lot of mistakes. Any GM not making mistakes, particularly big mistakes every once in a while, is too risk adverse to be in his position. Any decision maker has to accept that risk is there and to take it on as necessary and prudent, whether that is baseball or any other business.

We all know the free agent problems. But no one ever talks about the process involved nor the availability issue either. Sometimes you need a body and that's the best body available, whether free agent or trade market. Sometimes you just need to make a move to give a signal to the troups. Sometimes it is done for marketing to the fans. Sometimes the owner just wants that player. Decisions made there often result for reasons that demonstrates none of his knowledge or expertise, but rather is what is available on the market. Like having to buy a gold (or chose a color you wouldn't want) colored car because that's the only one left in the lot and you need one.

People also seem to have the misconception that a team can totally rebuild using the draft. That's a fallacy. Most teams do not do that, they take the random luck involved with the draft on what you get, then fill in with free agents and trades where you are lacking. Find me a team that rebuilt to win a championship using only the draft. I know you won't find one because I've looked at all the best teams and none of them did that.

It gets even worse when you are winning because then none of your draft picks are that likely to become a good player. Only the losing teams get the picks position where you have a very good chance of getting someone good from the draft.

In the last third of the first round, where the contenders are, the odds of finding a good player is like a crapshoot, around 10% chance of finding someone. That means on average, a team will find one good player in 10 years of drafting in the first round. Can't really build a team around that.

What I love about what Sabean did was that he focused his scarce resources - draft picks - on pitching, which is very versatile. If you end up drafting 3 great firstbasemen (like Texas did with Teixiera, Hofner, and A-Gon), you have to trade off two and hope you get someone good in return (they didn't). If you end up with 3 great starters, that's 3/5ths of your rotation.

Also important, when position players fail, they become bench players, hardly used much. When starting pitchers fail, you can still see if they can become good relievers, maybe set-up men. Or even closers.

Building upon pitching can create a great situation where the cream rises to the top, and the cup that can hold pitching is much larger than another other function on the team. You can't just move one of your immobile firstbasemen to 3B or LF (McCovey and Cepeda; McGwire and Nelson) and hope for that work in the long run. SS can move, but how often does that happen that you have two, you are lucky to have one. And OF rarely can move to the IF easily. But for each good pitcher you develop, you just kick the low man off the ladder and insert the better pitcher, until you have a stellar pitching staff.

This is what I've been saying for 6-7 years now and I am heartened to see it come to fruition and be so successful. We have a great pitching staff this season and it only looks to get better with Bumgarner, Runzler, Joaquin, among others, plus the guys drafted this year, Wheeler, the closer we picked 4th round.

Soon, we will have a cup running over with great pitching, and then the Giants can do a trade like the A's did with Haren, pick up a whole platoon of position prospects (maybe make it a three team deal to bring in more and better position prospects) to put on the finishing touches on the offense that should be led by Sandoval and Posey for the next 5 seasons at least.

That's why I hope Sabean is extended for another two years.