Your 2010 Giants are 84-66: Clubbing Sum Cubs

Well, that was not exactly what we were looking for against the Brewers, but they threw their best against us, and sometimes you will lose to the best - something other teams will learn against the Giants in the playoffs for years to come.  Gallardo is a bonafide ace and Wolf has been on a very good streak, and has been a good pitcher, on and off, in previous seasons.

So the Giants ended up 3-3 on the homestand, but that was good enough to keep the division lead, ultimately, plus a 1.5 game lead over D-Rox, when the D-gers finally showed that they had some pride, and came back nicely from a 6-1 deficit and steal the win away from D-Rox, making their dream-like ending take a serious bump in the fantasy.  Now the Giants face the Cubbies, who, natch, happen to have their best pitchers lined up against the Giants, but the clubhouse mood could have been disrupted by Tyler Colvin's odd but lung-threatening injury (just surprised it hasn't happened before yet, a bat splintered and a chunk went into his chest).

Game 1:  Carlos Zambrano vs. Cain

MLB Notes:

Giants:  Cain continued his second-half dominance against the Dodgers, throwing seven shutout innings to improve to to 6-2 with a 2.71 ERA since the Midsummer Classic. Cain also reached the 200-inning plateau for the fourth straight season.

Cubs:  Zambrano has been a lights-out pitcher since returning to the starting rotation. Over his past seven starts, he is 6-0 with a 1.37 ERA, including holding the Cardinals to one earned run in six innings in his last outing.

Does not get much tougher than Zambrano on a roll.  The above says it all, both players are at the top of their game right now, but Zambrano is on a bigger roll, plus he's at home (3.07 ERA vs. Giants at home) and Cain is on the road, where historically he has been much worse, but he's now at least good on the road last season and this season.  It might take a Matty shutout to win, though the Giants have took down the other team's best pitcher often this season (just not often enough for some fans).  Despite how well Cain has been doing, have to lean towards Zambrano on this, but pretty even contest otherwise.

Game 2:  Randy Wells vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

Giants:  Sanchez struck out a career-high 12 while walking zero in his last start against the Dodgers, holding L.A. to two runs -- one earned -- on four hits. In his last six starts, Sanchez is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and has worked seven-plus innings four times.

Cubs:  Wells says he found his confidence against the Cardinals in his last start, restricting them to one run in eight innings. He struck out five and walked none.

This is the game the Giants are most likely to win.  Wells had a nice start in his last game, but in his last 10 games, he has a 5.22 ERA.  But it is not like he isn't a good pitcher, he's just having a bad regression to the mean season vs. how good he was last season.  In any case, he has a good enough K/9 and very good K/BB, so sabermetrically, he's a good starter.  

But Sanchez has been very good this season and great recently (1.83 ERA in last 6 starts), and has been pitching well since July started, 3.16 ERA since then.  The only caveat is that Sanchez had a horrible start against them in 2009, his only start in Wrigley.  But it is a different Sanchez now, he is now a pitcher, not a thrower, as he has been able to go into a game without much stuff and still was able to be effective in keeping the other team from scoring.  

The Giants should win this one, but if Wells has his rare good start and Sanchez his rare bad one, it could be a different story.

Game 3:  Ryan Dempster vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

Giants:  In his last start, Bumgarner pitched a solid 5 2/3 innings, but shoddy defense behind him played a factor in the rookie lefty-hander remaining winless at AT&T Park. Bumgarner beat the Cubs on Aug. 9, allowing three runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Cubs:  Dempster has looked sharp in his last two outings. Over that span, he has thrown a combined 14 shutout innings against the Brewers and Marlins, seven against each club.

Again, the Giants are unlucky, getting to face Dempster in this series as well as Zambrano, so if they do make the playoffs, they will have earned it against the other teams' best starters, we have had it tough in our recent series, facing the other team's top two pitchers (at minimum) each series.  Dempster has been on a roll himself his last two starts, heck, the Cubs have been too, winning 17 of their 24 games under interim manager Sam Quade, who took over after Piniella took early retirement.  This series looked like a gimme when the month started, but this will be another death match against two very tough pitchers.

Wow, looking over his career, Dempster has worked very hard to get to where he is today, people might complain about how long it took Jonathan Sanchez to reach a good performance level in the majors, perhaps bemoaning his time in the bullpen, but Dempster took even longer and went to the bullpen, where he eventually was made the closer, but really wasn't that good as a closer.  However, when they made him a starter again, at age 30, he has blossomed into one of the best in the NL the past three seasons.

He has pitched OK against the Giants in the past in Wrigley, 13.2 IP, 13 K, 6 BB, but been a little unlucky with a 3.95 ERA, in two starts.  And that is roughly his career against SF, 3.89 ERA.  If we face that Dempster, we have a pretty good chance of winning because Bumgarner has been pitching pretty well for a while now.  But if we are facing the Dempster who shut out the Brewers and the Marlins, it will be a tough, even, well-pitched game, which like, as some been saying, been torturing us with recently.  

Giants Thoughts

As much as people would like to complain about the Giants, they are in the division lead right now with only 12 games to go.  It seems nothing is ever good enough for these people, plus that the sky is always falling.  The past three years the Giants has basically done what I thought they could do, but the Naysayers just don't see it.

And that is the problem when you are wedded to a position, as most of these people are who I call Sabean Naysayers.  You recognize the faults that are there but don't throw the baby out with the bath water either.  And that is what these people have been doing, they have essentially divorced themselves from Sabean because of all the past trespasses, and despite putting together the best pitching rotation in the majors, plus adding Posey and Pablo, they just don't really care, and I'll bet that if the Giants do win the World Series under Sabean, they still won't be satisfied, there will always be that "yeah, but..."

And I was one of those questioning Sabean way back in 2002-3, particularly about the draft, when I did my draft study and realized how tough it is to rebuild via the draft.  It is basically impossible to do that while you are winning, particularly if you are contending for a playoff spot, year in, year out.  For every Matt Cain you find, you have to pick over the Torcato's, the Bumps in the road, Bonser, McDowell, Alderson, Fairley, Hennessey, basically for every ten you select, you will find one Matt Cain, plus useful players like Lowry, Hennessey, Bonser, who are complementary players, can fill a spot on the roster, and keep the team going so that the good players like Cain, Lincecum, Posey, can lead the team to victory.

You have to look at the big picture and accept that there is no perfect situation.  Accept what you got, realize what you really have and not an idealized version of what you think it should be.  You need to see the reality that is there and not be clouded by your past feelings.

The Big Picture

The Giants have a lot of good players who are struggling right now with the playoff pressure.  In other words, they are thinking too much at the plate, swinging at pitches they normally either let go by for a ball or smash for a hit when it is a strike.  The pitchers were going through that in August, but has come out with flying colors in September.  The hitters actually carried the pitchers in August, but it is the other way around now.  They will have to work through it just like the pitchers did.

Pitchers deal with this type of pressure often (RISP, late game action), so it is no surprise that they got over it sooner.  The hitters didn't really feel the pressure until the 'Dres lost all those games and the division lead was in our grasp.  Still, it is not like it is all bad, on the hitters part, they came through during the series in San Diego, enabling the team to pass the 'Dres and take first place.

Now there are twelve games left:  3 on the road with the Cubs, 3 on the road with the D-Rox, then back home for 3 against the D-backs and the final 3 against the 'Dres.  Basically relatively easy then tough for both.  The Cubs aren't as easy are originally seen early in the month, but with our good pitchers, it is not like they are going to run us over either.  It should be another tough but good series.  Ideally, we win the series, because the 'Dres are playing the D-gers (who have been pushovers lately) and D-Rox are playing the D-backs, but if we come out 1-2, it won't be the end of the world either, as I doubt the others will sweep.

SD coming up is facing 3 vs. LA in LA (3-4 on their road trip), then home against tough Cincinnati, the suddenly tough Cubs for 4 games, and then the final series vs. SF in SF.  The way it is looking, SD is stabilizing and the Giants will probably be playing for the division title against them in the final weekend.

Colorado is on the road for 3 against the D-backs, which has been falling like a stone, which is bad here but good for the Giants since they also face three at home against them too.  So the Giants should come out ahead relatively, when all said and done.  Then D-Rox are home for 3 vs. SF and 3 vs. LA, before going on the road against St. Louis for 4.  The D-Rox is probably playing the Giants for the division lead in that matchup and the Giants reportedly dodge a bullet in that Jimenez is not pitching in that series and Tracey said that he was not moving him up on short rest to pitch there.  

Giants:  1-2 Cubs, 1-2 COL, 2-1 AZ, 2-1 SD = 6-6 and 90-72 final record
'Dres:  2-1 LA, 1-2 CIN, 2-2 Cubs, 1-2 SF = 6-7 and 89-73 final record
D-Rox:  2-1 AZ, 2-1 SF, 2-1 LA, 2-2 St.L = 8-5 and 90-72 final record

So, for the Giants the key is that they need to win the series in Colorado, which would put them 2 games ahead of the other two teams, and should win them the title.  If they can win the Cubs series or sweep the D-backs, which has gone in a bad slide recently, that would be good too.

San Diego really need to win the series against SF in SF.  It would be good to win either the Reds or Cubs series too.

Colorado really needs to keep winning series.  Any slipup (particularly against SF) and they are probably done, though if they sweep anyone, that would really help too.  Plus if they can win the St. Louis series, but LaRussa might still be battling then for a playoff spot, as they got 6 games against Pittsburgh in the next 9 games, sandwiching 3 against the suddenly tough Cubs.  I noticed that the Cards have a TBD for one of their starters on Thursday, so it would not surprise me if he is modifying the rotation with an eye to the Colorado series, at home, as they will be the tough team to beat, while the Pirates and Cubs are not as tough.

Giants Hitter Need to Get Hot:  Guillen?

There is nothing like a hitter getting white hot and the team just floats along for the ride.  That happened in July when Posey got hot and that is happening now for the D-Rox as they ride Tulowitski's historic home-run binge (something insane like 14 homers in 15 games, forgot, only 1-3 other players have done that before).  The Giants need a hitter to get hot like that, which would loosen up the other hitters, I think.

Jose Guillen could be that guy.  He is 7 for 13 since he got that epidural (or whatever) into his bulging disc on his neck (why didn't he complain earlier and got the shot earlier?), with 2 HRs and 8 RBI in four games.  We have only gone 2-2 so far, but if he continues hitting at such a high rate, we would have Guillen, Posey, Burrell hitting well, plus maybe that will loosen up Huff too, who is scuffling lately.

But the only guys hitting this month are Posey, Burrell, Huff, Schieholtz, and Renteria, and now Guillen, basically the vets.  Everyone else has been scuffling.  Torres was particularly bad, though perhaps that was related to his appendix needing to get out, though usually it does not affect the body for that long before needing to get out (leading to the speculation of some that his ADD medication might have led to this condition).

Speaking of Torres, he's already up and hitting with a fungo bat off a tee, and he is scheduled to practice in Chicago, so there is talk now that he might even be able to come back in the series in Colorado.  If so, and if he is back to his pre-September goodness form, that can't be anything but great news for the Giants.

The Look of Success: Latos' Bewildered Panda Look

Andy Baggarly wrote of this in his report of the game yesterday:  the look on San Diego's ace, Mat Latos, face after Pablo Sandoval's homer in the 7th which drove him out of the game.  I think that is the look of success for the Giants as we move firmly into the pennant stretch.

As I wrote about in a post a few days ago, it appears that Kung Fu Panda has returned.  Sure, small samples, but what people are forgetting is that in statistics, the significance of data is unlike others, clearly out of the box.  Sandoval hitting homers were part of the equation that I noted in the post a few days ago.

Now the look.   Here is what Baggarly wrote:

Pablo Sandoval snapped Latos' shutout when he led off the seventh inning with a home run that bounced into McCovey Cove. It was a swing full of hope, and not only because it knocked the Padres' young starter from the game.

It might have been a sign the Kung Fu Panda is emerging from his season-long hibernation. He had gone 46 games without a home run before Thursday, but now he has two in a span of three games.

Not only that, but he connected on a pitch above the letters and off the plate. Latos had a look of bewilderment in the dugout -- the kind of facial expressions the Giants saw often last year when Sandoval barreled up pitches off the plate while hitting .330.

"High pitch," said Sandoval, smiling. "I haven't hit a ball out of the park like that all year. I think that's a good sign for the team and me."

That is something that has been mostly missing this season, Pablo swinging at pitches that clearly are out of the strike zone for a big hit, in this case a big homer.

Here is what Chris Haft reported on this:

After going 46 games without a homer, Sandoval now has hit two in the past three games.

"That was a big homer he hit today; don't ask me how he did it," Huff said. "That's special, man, to be able to hit a ball like that. That was a big homer -- that was probably one of the turning points of the game, to be able to get [Latos] out."

The thing about stats is that you try to look for things that are not like before to show that something has changed substantially.  While that works really well when dealing with rolling dice or analysis of a population, and it works well in baseball as well, as humans, we can take into account qualitative bits of data as well.

The qualitative data here is not just that he homered for first time in a long time, as well as hit well in a week stretch, which he hasn't done in a long time, but also that he hasn't been hitting well on balls out of the strike zone.  When Pablo was going well in his prior year and a third in the majors, he was great at hitting pitches out of the zone.

Sure, it would be better if he swung only at strikes.  But I don't really understand what the problem is when he was hitting like he was, particularly in 2009.  He is capable of hitting homers on pitches out of the strike zone and still able to hit well overall while doing that.  I prefer to take the path of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" because there will always be unforeseen consequences to trying to change things.  A batter's swing is a complex system that can be improved with training and education, but when you have a hitter like Pablo, you don't know if changing him might cause changes that you don't anticipate nor would like to see.

Great Photo in Chronicle



If we win and get into the playoffs, this would be a photo that captures it best, I think.  Here is the link to the article by Hank Schulman.

Additional Guillen Thoughts

I am feeling better about the Guillen trade now.  Reading all the article with interviews with him and hearing more about him, it sounds like he may have been underperforming both because of being on a loser as well as recovering from an injury earlier in the season, which he says is 100% now.  He's in his last season of his contract and wants to play next season, so he has to perform well for us to improve his chances of getting that contract.  He's excited to join a winner, something he has not done a lot of, kind of like with Huff, and so he's motivated to do well and help the Giants win.  Given how Bochy has been willing to push vets to the bench when not performing, I expect that if he don't do well, he'll sit or be released too.  Win if he delivers, nothing really lost if he doesn't because our other hitters, particularly Kung Fu Panda, should be hitting well enough in any case.

Speaking of which, sounds like Fontenot will be seeing regular playing time at 2B if Franchez continues season long pattern of up and down performance.

Your 2010 Giants are 66-50: Dirty Promises Sweep of 'Dres

What an idiotic boast Jonathan Sanchez made, about sweeping San Diego.  First, take care of your own games, he was horrible in his last start.  Maybe boast that you'll be great pitching in his next start, but really, a sweep?  Second, focus on the task on hand first, which was taking care of the Cubbies.  Third, don't make promises for your teammates.  Sure, say that you really believe in this offense and pitching staff, but to say that the Giants will win in the other two games in the series?  I hope the kangaroo court fined him big time for that asinine promise.

Game 1:  Clayton Richard vs. Sanchez

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  Richard struggled in his last start, allowing five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, his shortest start of the year. He's had a rough go in the second half, posting a 5.93 ERA in five starts. This after a 3.33 ERA in the first half of the season.

Giants:  Sanchez will be attempting to recover from a stumble in his last start, when he allowed four runs in four innings to the Braves in one of his shortest starts of the season. His control has been the primary reason for his struggles.

As I've been noting since ASB, San Diego's young starters should stop pitching well soon, particularly Richard and LeBlanc, because they aren't really as good as they appeared in April/May.  As you can see, Richard has not pitched well since and he's going to be hitting the wall in terms of IP usage soon as well.

I would say that the Giants should win this one, except that Sanchez made his stupid boast.  In the past, when there was pressure on him, he would wilt - not a bad thing per se, but a sign of youth - like pitching in home opener this season.  However, he had a great start with the pressure on and in a park that is horrible for pitchers, and he shut out Colorado just the start before.  I think that showed signs of maturity that was dashed by his stupid boast.

So I will have to call this even with a lean towards Sanchez for having much better talent overall in his career, plus this is the team he no-hit, so he seems to have their number.  Before, when under pressure, he got amped up and was wild.  But if he can calm himself down like against the Rockies, then we have a great battle at hand, and probably a win.  And even if amped up, Richard has struggled for a long while now, so it should be an even battle at worse.

Game 2:  Mat Latos vs. Bumgarner

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  Latos continues to impress in his first full season. He won his 12th game of the year in his last start in Arizona, tossing six shutout frames with six strikeouts. He hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his past 10 starts.

Giants:  Bumgarner hasn't won since July 24 but has allowed more than three runs only once in his past nine starts. Last time out, the young left-hander allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings to the Cubs in a no-decision.

Top prospect starting pitcher vs. top prospect pitcher, mano-a-mano.  Unfortunately, Latos has been on a great streak over the past two months, while Bumgarner struggled mightily in his last start against a poor struggling offense and really, his last two starts.  He will have to bring his A game to win against Latos.  Have to say that I would lean heavily towards Latos in this one.

Game 3:  Wade LeBlanc vs. Lincecum

MLB Notes:

'Dres:  LeBlanc wasn't exactly efficient on Tuesday against the Pirates, tossing 106 pitches in 5 2/3 innings, but he was effective. He tied his career high with eight strikeouts and allowed one run on five hits to pick up just his second win since June 18.

Giants:  Lincecum's strange season continued against the Cubs, as the two-time NL Cy Young Award winner experienced the worst first inning of his career, giving up four runs. Lincecum exited after four innings, allowing six runs on eight hits.

LeBlanc has also been doing worse lately.  4.31 ERA since late June, and generally around 4.50 for the past month or so, which is about what his talent level really is, mid-to-back rotation starter.  

Luckily he's up against Lincecum as Timmy had a horrible start in his last game.  Luckily, his peripherals looked good in that start, it appears to be just one of those bad luck games where balls just fall in for hits and you are screwed.  This is not like earlier in the season when Lincecum was struggling, as he was walking people left and right back then but only walked one in his last game, and still struck out 4.  

If Timmy was going against a stronger pitcher, I would be more worried.  Still, because he did struggle in his last game, I would have to call this game even with a strong lean towards Lincecum.

Giants Thoughts

A win is a win is a win. It don't matter if ugly wins, in history books, the Giants are now 66-50 and facing Padres this weekend. Teams battling successfully for playoffs need to win ugly games like this plus take down bad teams like Cubs, by hook or crook. Giants offense won this series, the pitching let the team down.

Now the Giants take on the 'Dres, and really, they need to sweep to make a statement, Sanchez statement or not.  If they simply win the series 2-1, which I think is very likely, they are still behind the division leader, with a tough stretch of good teams facing us (though the 'Dres will have it tough going on the road for a long 10 game stretch themselves) coming up in Phillies, Cards, Reds, then after D-backs, face on the road D-gers, D-backs, 'Dres, before home for 3 against D-gers again.  That is a very tough stretch and could decide whether the Giants are battling for a playoff spot down the stretch or not.  A sweep would be great for getting a good start to this tough stretch.

Kung Fu Panda Mojo Back?

The good news is that Burrell and Sandoval are both starting to heat up (and Rowand and Ishikawa have been hitting well for over a month, for that matter), as Torres, Huff and Posey start to cool down.  We will need  the four of them, contributing on varying levels to get into the playoffs.  Particularly with the Cards and Phillies breathing down our backs just one game back in the wild card race.

Sandoval especially, he's key for the Giants not only this season but for the future, whereas Burrell being good is good for us now, but who knows about next season?  So far, so good for Sandoval (as I covered in my previous post).  Nothing conclusive over one week's worth of games, but significant because he hasn't done this since his great month of April.  And if he's hitting well, then we have a great block of hitters up top:  Torres, Huff, Posey, Sandoval, Burrell, plus Uribe and sometimes Ishikawa (people don't like Ishi, but not very many teams have a near 800 OPS hitting batting 8th).

Teams Different Now from Mid-May SD Sweep

Big differences for the Giants and 'Dres between Mid-May Sweep and now, and back then they squeaked by us, 3-2, 5-2, 1-0:

• No Posey
• No Torres leading off
• No Burrell
• Pandoval in deep slump of early May
• Rowand slumping
• Schierholtz slumping
• Downs slumping
• No Freddy Sanchez
• Richard and LeBlanc were pitching like aces
• Ludwick and Tejada

The Giants have a much better offense now with Torres leading off, providing both OBP and ability to drive in guys who get on base ahead of him, then Huff, Posey, Burrell/Uribe in the heart of the lineup.  In addition, we got Rowand pitching in with a nice and quiet .276/.360/.423/.782 for the last two months, Ishikawa doing it on and off the bench, .312/.350/.440/.791 since the end of May, almost three months of good hitting and defense.

Plus, San Diego is not as good.  Their pitching is falling back down to earth.  Both Richard and LeBlanc are regressing to their talent level as shown by previous seasons:  mid-to-back rotation starters.  That's decent to have on a team, so nothing against them, but on a poor offensive team like the 'Dres, they aren't going to win a lot of games being average or worse. Plus, in any case, should hit IP limits soon if not already, then who are they going to start?  And Tejada hasn't been hitting, and while Ludwick has been hitting homers, he hasn't been doing much of anything else, and their offense is not built for long ball, it has been a small ball offense.  Other than A-Gon, nobody gets on base much, so they have to manufacture when someone does get on.  

Other Roster Changes

Then there are the recent trades to add Mike Fontenot and Jose Guillen to the bench.  Fontenot only gives us an average MI player, but on a bench, an average player is very valuable to have.  There is not as much of a drop off when giving Sanchez or Uribe a rest at 2B or SS.  He is basically average at 2B defensively but horrible, though in very few starts, at SS.  He was OK defensively at SS in the minors though.  Plus, since he's a lefty, we might see him in a semi-platoon with Sanchez if Freddy slumps again (he's been hitting OK since August 3rd, .250/.351/.406/.758.

There has been a lot of tweets over the Guillen trade.  Looks like we got him for PTBNL and the Royals are sending cash to us (Hank Schulman tweeted that Guillen will only cost the Giants $250K and a low-to-mid level prospect), though don't know how much yet.  Looks like he will join the team tomorrow, at which point the team would have to make a corresponding move, which right now looks like Burriss going down.  Jeff Fletcher of AOL tweeted that Bochy says that Guillen is new starting RF and Huff starts at 1B.  Which means, of course, that Ishikawa is going back to bench.

I don't think that is best because Ishikawa has been hitting better than Guillen, plus plays great D at 1B.  Also, he's hitting better than Guillen on an OPS basis for the past 4-5 seasons combined for Guillen.  The good thing is that Guillen  adds another HR power bat to our lineup, which is good because obviously our lineup is not built for speed and small-ball, it is built to win on the long ball.  

Hopefully this works, but I am smelling another Garko redux, though at least Guillen has a long history of doing some offensive damage in the majors while Garko didn't have much and still was on the decline.  I wonder who we gave up, though we do know the player is from the Giants non-keeper list.  The Giants in their press release noted Guillen's accomplishments for the A's when they got him, particularly in the playoffs.  And he did hit very well in April and June, just not so good in May and particularly July and now August.  

Clearing his mind by being on a playoff contender might just be what he needs, but I remain skeptical, though I would note that almost anyone would be depressed being on that dreary KC team.  People complain about Sabean but KC has had a number of even better draft picks than Sabean and built up a team of mainly hitting prospects, and still is not going anywhere, they are apparently aimless.

People are understandably in love with offensive players - the players I loved and followed growing up and beyond were mostly hitters, Bobby Bonds, Dave Kingman, Jack Clark, Chili Davis, Chris Brown, Will Clark, Matt Williams, though I loved John the Count Montefusco too - but I've been trying to explain how significant starting pitchers can be for many years now.

Starting Pitchers More Influence Than Most Think

People (particularly sabers) point out that position players play every game and contribute almost every game, but I think that they are missing one important point:  affect on the outcome (i.e. win/loss).  Unless the hitter is hitting a home run, he can go 5 for 5, but if everyone else don't get a hit, there is no offense.  A hitter, in isolation, is relatively useless.

A pitcher can command how a game go.  Even the lousiest of pitchers can have a well pitched game sometimes.  Not that he was lousy, but Bobby Jones of the Mets shut down the Giants in the playoffs when he was not that particularly good as a starting pitcher.  But that day, he was the ace they needed.  And the best of pitchers - Lincecum, Cain, among others - can deliver a well pitched game anywhere from 50-80% of the time.  

Unless the hitters are getting on base before the big bopper, he can't really influence a game all by himself, he needs men on base to have a great affect on the game's result, win or lose.  So while a hitter can contribute something almost every game he plays, the opportunities he has to truly influence a game's results are limited and depends on the other hitters to deliver before and after him.  A good example of this is San Diego's offense with A-Gon and the 7 offensive dwarfs and the Giants previously with Barry Bonds in his last few seasons.

Some will say that this is not Bonds or A-Gon's fault, that they were not surrounded by hitters who could make them pay off offensively.  But that still ignores the reality that pitchers don't really need others in that way, though they do need the position players to play adequate defense.  But pitchers like Lincecum and Sanchez who strike out a lot of batters, sometimes up to half of the hitters they face, have a lot of control over the action that don't involve their fielders.  That is the DIPS supposition - measuring those things that pitchers have control over.

Pitchers have a lot of control over what they do in the game, and the best can do it a large majority of the time, on a game by game basis, which puts the team in great position to win when they are able to do that.  So it might seem like a position player contributes more because he plays 150+ games plus fields his position, but the pitcher has a greater contribution to the outcome of any particular game he starts, anywhere from 10 to 25 starts out of 32.  

As I've been documenting and following in my side column, when the opposing team is held to 3 runs or less, your team wins the great majority of the time, even with as poor an offense as the Giants had in 2009.  When you have a rotation full of pitchers who can do that, it is easier to win games, it is easier to win series.  And they have a direct effect on the outcome of the game, whereas even the best hitters in history can only influence the outcome.  We got a great example of that in yesterday's game, Burrell had a grand slam and we should have won, but he wasn't the game winner hit.

Of course, without hitters, even great pitchers can't win, but given the choice of a great hitter or a great pitcher, I would go for the great pitcher every time because if he is on top of his game, we win the game, even with a near bottom of league offense, but the hitter can hit 4 homers every game and we could still lose 5-4 each time because we have no pitching.