Your 2011 Giants Draft Pick Signings

Andy Baggerly reported in the newspaper today that "the Giants came to terms with their top 13 selections and 27 of their first 31.  Among them was Oregon State catcher Andrew Susac, who was considered a steal as a second-rounder.  Baseball America reported that Susac received first -round money - a $1.1 million bonus."

Perfect Games has the Giants entire draft plus bonus information on-line (have to select Giants when you get there).   Here are the signed picks they reported on, up to 12th round:

Rd	Pk	Team	Player	Pos	School	St	Signed	Bonus
1	29	Giants	Joseph Panik	SS	St. John’s	NY	Signed	$1,160,000
1 Comp	49	Giants	Kyle Crick	RHP	Sherman	TX	Signed	$900,000
2	86	Giants	Andrew Susac	C	Oregon State	CA	Signed	$1,100,000
3	116	Giants	Ricky Oropesa	3B	Southern California	CA	Signed	$550,000
4	147	Giants	Bryce Bandilla	LHP	Arizona	AZ	Signed	$185,000
5	177	Giants	Chris Marlowe	RHP	Oklahoma State	OK	Signed	$145,000
6	207	Giants	Josh Osich	LHP	Oregon State	ID	Signed	$450,000
7	237	Giants	Raymond Black	RHP	Pittsburgh	PA	Signed	$225,000
8	267	Giants	Jean K. Delgado	MIF	Isabel Flores	PR	Signed	$125,000
9	297	Giants	Derek Law	RHP	Miami-Dade	PA	Signed	$125,000
10	327	Giants	Kentrell Hill	OF	Arkansas Baptist		Signed	$100,000
11	357	Giants	Christian Diaz	OF	PR Baseball Academy	PR	Signed
12	387	Giants	Kelby Tomlinson	SS	Texas Tech	TX	Signed

The Giants also signed 14th round pick, 3B Garrett Buechele, who is related to former major leaguer, Steve Buechele.  In fact, his full name is Steven Garrett Buechele.  His numbers went way down in 2011, else he probably would have been drafted higher, he was drafted in the 18th round by the Rangers in the 2010 MLB draft, as he was a redshirted sophomore last season.

Giants Thoughts

The general consensus that I saw was that the Giants had a pretty good haul of players from this draft, assuming they signed everyone.  As noted above, they "Got Heem!", signing their top 13 picks, and in particular, Andrew Susac, Ricky Oropesa, and Josh Osich, who were all potential first round picks who fell for a variety of reasons.

Susac signed for approximately what he would have gotten had he been drafted in Panik's slot instead (Joe Panik got $1.16M, which is slightly higher than what the 29th pick got in 2010's draft; rumors were that the slots were raised 5-10% this season, but Panik got about 4% more), which many mock drafts had him picked around there.  The 86th pick got $411,000 last season; slot was $411,300 (Wow, KC was so cheap that they would not even give that pick the extra $300 that the slot allowed?  Explains why they have been so bad for so long...).

Oropesa signed for mid-second round money, which is about double the slot money. The 116th pick was slotted for $258,300 in 2010, and 5-10% would put it about half what he signed for.  Some of the rankings I saw thought that he could go in the end of the first round, but most had him going in the mid-to-late second round.

Osich signed for late second round money.  His slot was around the low $100K range, so he got about 3-4 times what his overall pick region would normally get.  He was actually selected in the Giants #29 draft pick in a few mock drafts, but his injury scared off a lot of teams, and he basically agreed to the mid-way point between a first round and where he ended up.

Also, I don't think I reported on my blog, but Kyle Crick signed for $900K relatively early.  According to BA, his overall pick was slotted for $717,300.  A lot of the draft pundits said that had Crick and Panik been selected in each other's slot, that would have made more sense, as Panik was not rated that highly by a lot of the draft evaluators.  However, there were a couple (well known too, Sickels and Perfect Games) who thought Panik, while a slight overdraft at worse, was not horribly so, and, in any case, if the Giants wanted him, he most probably would not have fell to them by their #49 pick.  Sickels was OK with that pick, and Perfect Games thought that Panik had risen late to be equal to the other middle infielders thought to be drafted in the 20-29 draft range,  Kolten Wong and Levi Michael (drafted #22 and #30, respectively).

The Giants got a great haul, with many players who were potential late first round draft picks in Panik, Crick, Susac, Oropesa, and Osich.  That is something the Giants have emphasized since Barr took over the draft, selecting players who were potential first round draftees who fell for whatever reason.  Gillaspie, Crawford, and Parker are among those who the Giants picked up in later rounds when they either had a poor season or fell for salary demands.  There were good words also about the other guys selected relatively early, Bryce Bandilla, Chris Marlowe, and Raymond Black.

The Giants picked up 6 pitchers with their first 10 picks overall.  They have traditionally emphasized getting pitchers in their drafts, even after Barr took over the draft from Tidrow, picking more pitchers than position players, even though on all rosters there are more position players than pitchers.  They also picked up middle infielders  Joseph Panik, Jean Delgado, and Kelby Tomlinson in their first 13 picks.  And two 3B among their first 15 picks in Oropesa and Buechele.

Panik Signed by Giants!

True to his post-draft interviews, Giants 2011 first round pick, Joe Panik, signed almost immediately.  I saw first at Schulman but Baggarly had the slot money info, $1.1M approximately.   Schulman noted he will report to Salem-Keizer on Friday (Baggarly noted soon).  Baggarly happened to see him in the dugout and, just as I saw in an interview with Panik post-draft, "he's ecstatic to begin his pro career."

That's what I would love to see in the guys we draft normally, though I suspect part of the reason he signed fast was because he was considered a supplemental first round pick, and could have slipped, but because the Giants signed him ahead of where most had him going (however, Perfect Game thought he might even be the first middle infielders to be drafted, so there were some who thought he was right where he should be).   Sign quickly, get into the minors immediately, start working up the minors.  Especially the college players, they are already a bit old to be a top prospect and starting up in A or lower.  Though, of course, there is the risk that they fail and should have held out for the more money, so I understand holding out too.

In any case, he is signed and will soon be playing for the Giants.

Go Giants!!!

Your 2011 Giants: Draft Results

The draft is over, and sfgiants.com had a nice article talking about it here.  And go here to see the list of players the Giants selected.

Here are some interesting stats and quotes from the article:

• Barr:  "the position players that were there had value, and Panik is a guy we've seen a lot. ... We see him as a player who can stay up the middle and be an offensive player."  Also noted that pick did not reflect in any way on Brandon Crawford.  Sees Panik ideally developing into #2 hitter.
• Breakdown:  Giants selected 51 players (50 rounds plus one supplemental pick awarded for losing Uribe).  They normally select the 50 rounds that are planned for - some teams end early, some go far beyond 50.  They selected 29 pitchers - remember, they usually pick more pitchers than position players, despite fact that the roster normally has more position players - 21 RHP and 8 LHP.  Out of the 22 position players, 11 were infielders, 7 were outfielders, and 4 were catchers.  (50% INF, 32% OF, 18% C vs. 50% INF, 38% OF, 13% C in starting lineup and overall around 46% INF, 38% OF, 15% of the 13 position players on the 25 man roster; obviously varies depending on composition of bench, but roughly this).  35 played in college, 6 in junior college, and only 10 were out of high school. That's the composition of a playoff contending team looking to get players that might contribute sooner than later.
• Barr: "I won't ever speculate on how far a player is. Everybody goes through it at their own pace, so I think the first thing we do is we get him out, we get him into the system and we'll see how it works out. When he's ready to develop and come on up here into the big leagues will be when he gets here." Apparently this is another key part of the Giants Draft philosophy, either under Barr or under Neukom, as both Sabean and Tidrow said that Bumgarner should be up in two seasons (and he was, roughly).
• Barr on speculation Giants draft C due to Posey:  Barr denied those rumors, saying Posey's situation "was never under a discussion," nor do the Giants consider any players on the disabled list when making their selections. Instead, they strictly adhere to a best-player-available philosophy -- pick their highest-rated player, no matter the experience level or position.
  
  "You still have to end up accumulating talent. That's the key," Barr said. "You're accumulating talent within your Minor Leagues so you give your general manager, Brian Sabean, the flexibility to either bring somebody up or use them as trades to fill in spots. It's not so much, 'What do we need today?' It's really, you're bringing talent into the organization, and the greater the talent you have in your Minor Leagues, the better your big league team will be."
• Author notes "Panik's potent bat and solid defensive ability at the middle-infield spots" and Susac, "who is more renowned for his defense behind the plate than his productivity as a hitter."  
• No celebrities of any sort in this draft, though they used one of their last picks to select the younger brother of the agent of the Runner who ended Posey's season.  

Giants Thoughts

As I've noted in places, great draft for the Giants.  They ended up with three players who were forecasted by some mocks to be selected around the end of the first round:  Joe Panik, Andrew Susac, and Josh Osich.  In fact, a number of mocks had the Giants selecting Osich with their 29th pick.  In addition, they got Ricky Oropesa, who most draft experts saw as a round 2 pick, maybe supplemental first (Ricky's mom, coincidentally, works with DrB, so he knew all about him for a long time already).  I will try to find some evaluations of the draft from other sources to see who else are considered good picks for the Giants, but just from this handful, I think they were very successful, in effect ending up with up to 3-4 first round picks-worthy talents.

Your 2011 Giants: Giants Draft Pick #116 Ricky Oropesa

Another quality pick for the Giants, selecting 1B Ricky Oropesa with their 3rd round pick.  For me, it reminds me of the time when the Giants picked some QB with their early pick, allowing Oakland with the next pick to select another USC product, Mark McGwire.  Can you imagine if we had somehow been able to field Will Clark at 1B, Mark McGwire at 3B (A's had him there his first season; maybe he wouldn't have gotten so muscle bound if forced to play there), and Matt Williams at SS (he was a shortstop when drafted, but Al Rosen said he had hands of 3B).

Jonathan Mayo had him pegged at 46th best prospect, and had this to say:

In a class that is less than deep in college bats, Oropesa's stands out based on one tool: power. The corner infielder has always had it and was a prospect back in high school, when the Red Sox took a shot and selected him in the 24th round of the 2008 Draft.

The left-handed hitter has plus raw power, perhaps as much as anyone out west. He hasn't always swung the bat consistently enough to tap into it, but he made some good adjustments this season to show a little more overall hittability to some. He's shown he can rise to the occasion, picking up three hits -- including a homer -- against UCLA ace Gerrit Cole. He's not a clogger on the bases, but he's not a runner, either. While he's got a plus arm, he's below-average defensively overall, meaning he's likely destined to be a first baseman or designated hitter when all is said and done.

As one of the few guys in this Draft with true plus raw power, there's bound to be a team fairly early thinking his bat will play just fine at those spots.

Perfect Game did not profile him under their 50 on 50, ranking him #84 and noting:

6-3/225 LH hitter, ++ bat speed/raw power, Cape 2010 HR leader(7), improved contact (.330-6-36, 27 BB).

Another Cape Code hitter targeted by the Giants, imagine that. ;^)

Perfect Game profile notes the following (as well as saying Padres drafted him, at least right now):

Tools standout other than run, big arm, big power LH bat, 92 on mound, put on power display Aflac BP, having a big spring for big scouts 

Forgot to mention, but a lot of the tweets by draft experts noted that should he flame out as hitting prospect, his arm is good enough for conversion to pitching.  In fact, John Manuel of BA noted that once Tidrow sees him, will put him on mound if the bat don't develop.

And here is what Perfect Game noted on his pitching skills when he was in high school, looks pretty tempting:

Should something happen with his bat, Oropesa could be a top prospect on the mound as well. He threw up to 94 mph from a power overhand release point that created a heavy downhill angle to his fastball. The velocity came easily for him and he showed command of his fastball.

Lastly, wanted to note that Baseball America had him ranked #57 in their Top 200 ranking and John Sickels had him ranked #68 in his final publicly shared draft board.

Giants Thoughts

Another exciting pick for the Giants.  Their pick, being in the back of the third round is basically a fourth round pick, yet they were able to pick up Oropesa, who the draft experts had ranked from 46th to 84th, solidly a round two type of pick.  His big plus is power, I saw someone tweet a comparison with another Giants prospect, Chris Dominguez, which I agree with, only from left side (but throws right).  I guess the Giants do not view him at a 3B, though, as he was reported as a 1B/3B in pre-draft, but the Giants drafted him as 1B.  And the bonus is that should he fail to develop as a hitter, he has pretty good skills as a pitcher.

Which brings me to my pet dream:  a hitting pitcher.  With the Giants 25-man roster being squeezed by carrying one more pitcher than other teams, it would be helpful for the Giants to carry a relief pitcher who can hit a bit.  A failed hitter could still be a very good hitting pitcher, a tweener.  Not that I'm wishing that Oropesa becomes one - I hope he's the second coming of a masher - but more throwing this out there as a desire of mine to see.

I did have thoughts that perhaps Posey could be one at some point, he was the closer for the Florida team when we drafted him.  He could come out and pitch to a few guys, when the backup catcher is starting, then could take over catching at that point, perhaps, or even go to another position, why knock out the other catcher?

Your 2011 Giants: Giants Draft Pick #86 Andrew Susac

Honestly, I was not planning on posting anything on the following picks, but the Andrew Susac pick was so exciting to me, I had to.  Susac was a potential late first round pick and would have fit in anywhere in the supplemental first round as well.  To get him at the back of the second round is a great coup for the Giants, like getting two first round draft picks.

Here is what Jonathan Mayo has on him (go to #35):

The draft-eligible sophomore was a good high school catching prospect in Northern California two years ago, but teams stayed away (the Phillies took a shot in the 16th round) because of his strong commitment to Oregon St.

Now, Susac is mentioned frequently near the top of the catching list in this year's class, though there are differing opinions about his skill set. Teams that will consider him highly see the potential for him to be an everyday catcher.

He does have average raw power, mostly to the pull side, with more gap power to other fields. That could mean 15-20 homers annually, if he can make enough contact to tap into that power, something some have concerns about. He's a bit of a guess hitter and uses a big leg lift in his swing.

Susac is stocky, but not physical and muscular -- kind of like a Gregg Zaun-type. Behind the plate, he has a solid average arm and will flash a plus now and again. His hands can be a little stiff, but he's made some good improvement in his receiving skills. A broken left hamate bone forced him out of action this spring, and it remains to be seen how that will impact his Draft status.

Looks like his hamate bone injury pushed him back, along with the question about him catching in the future.

Perfect Game has a nice scouting profile from their 50 in 50 series:

Bats-Throws:        R-R

Height/Weight:     6-1/190

Hometown:           Roseville, Calif.

Prev. Drafted:      Phillies ’09 (16)

Birthdate:            March 22, 1990

SCOUTING PROFILE: Susac is draft-eligible as a sophomore because he turned 21 in March. Even though he has much less experience in college than most of his peers, Susac has clearly established himself as the best all-round catching prospect in the 2011 college class with his combination of a strong, durable frame, natural athleticism, solid catch-and-throw skills and improving offensive tools.

Not only did Susac arrive at Oregon State at 19, but he ended up sharing the catching duties with Parker Berberet as a freshman. He pressed at the plate under the weight of heightened expectations, and hit a modest .260-2-13. Susac clearly won the Beavers starting job this spring, but was forced to turn the catching duties back over to Berberet on April 11, when he had surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his left hand and faced the prospects of sitting out the rest of the 2011 college season. 

Until his untimely injury, sustained while swinging a bat, Susac was enjoying a breakout campaign at the plate for the Beavers, hitting a team-high .364 in 26 games. Even as he missed his next 16 games, he still stood among team leaders in homers (4), RBIs (25) and walks (21) in early May. Susac had made significant strides in all areas of his game this spring, but his improvement at the plate was especially noteworthy, and west-coast cross-checkers had quickly identified he and Utah’s C.J. Cron as the best college bats in that part of the country for this year’s draft. With his combination of superior raw arm strength and power, Susac had separated himself from all other catchers and it’s unclear how much his injury will impact his draft status.  He was initially projected to go off the board in the latter half of the first round. 

Though his college career has been comprised to a degree as both a freshman and sophomore—first by inconsistent production, second by injury—Susac made significant headway in summer ball the last two years. As a graduating high-school senior in 2009, he stepped in as the regular catcher for Corvallis of the West Coast League, and stood out for the advanced way that he handled the league’s most-talented pitching staff. 

The case had already been made that Susac was among the top defenders in the spring in a very deep group of elite prep catchers in the 2009 draft class, and he graded out above-average in every area playing against college talent in the WCL. He was an unusually polished receiver for his age with soft hands, quick feet, compact release and throwing stroke that produced tag throws in the 1.85-second area consistently. Susac was a little overmatched at the plate for Corvallis as he batted just .209 with two homers, but scouts weren’t overly concerned and quickly pointed to his solid track record as a hitter at the prep level. At Jesuit High in northern California, Susac had nine Division-I signees as teammates, and yet topped the team in average (.455), homers (7) and RBIs (31). Susac was taken in the 16th round of the 2009 draft by the Philadelphia Phillies, and unquestionably would have gone considerably higher had he not emphatically told scouts that he was intent on playing that summer in the West Coast League, and ultimately attending Oregon State. The Phillies monitored him closely all summer and made a belated, though concerted run at him, offering him a reported $850,000, but Susac stuck to his guns and went unsigned. 

Last summer in the Cape Cod League, Susac reaffirmed his standing as a catcher with significant offensive potential as he hit. 290-5-15 for Falmouth and led the league with a .500 slugging average. 

While Susac does virtually everything well on both sides of the ball, he still needs to shore up subtle aspects of his game. His superior arm strength is considered his best weapon on defense, while his receiving skills are his weakest. Susac has excellent raw bat speed and the ball explodes off his bat with authority when he squares it up, but he still needs to refine a somewhat unconventional approach to hitting. He has a hip-glide to his front side that occasionally leaves him looking off balance at point of contact. Susac is solidly put-together and has a physical presence on the field with his strength and stature. His only obvious drawback is his lack of speed.

Projected Draft Position: Late first round/compensation round.

Wow, again, Perfect Game's profile convinces me that the Giants picked a great prospect!

Here is some additional information on Susac in Oregon, published in late May, so current:

Susac also seemed like a lock to be drafted in the first round midway through the 2011 season, when he led the Beavers in every major offensive category. With his combination of raw power and arm strength, he quickly asserted himself as the premier catcher in this year’s college class. But Susac then broke the hamate bone in his catching hand, forcing him to the sidelines for 20 games, and scouts say he hasn’t been quite the same player since he returned, either at the plate or in the field.

He still led the Beavers in batting (.348) and was in the top two on the team in homers (5) and RBIs (31) entering the final weekend of the regular season, but has struggled with timing issues since his return, especially against the superior pitching he has faced in the Pac-10. He also appeared to be babying his hand behind the plate.

Susac is far from a polished defensive catcher anyway as he has always had issues blocking balls in the dirt, with his tendency to box them instead. With concerns about his health and the deficiencies in his game, not to mention his highly-leveraged sophomore class standing and obvious huge price tag, teams were beginning to have second thoughts on the eve of the draft about even drafting Susac in the first round, and wondered if another year in college might not be in his best interests. His situation will bear watching closely.

Funny that one of the things he needs to work on is blocking balls in the dirt, which was one of Buster Posey's problems coming up.

Baseball Beginning's John Klima has a video and comments:

Andrew Susac is seen here taking some BP cuts in the summer of 2010. Obviously, he’s a good frame guy with some bat speed, but the only thing that would worry me from this look is the drop in his hands before he starts his swing. That can be a fatal flaw at any level if not addressed correctly.

Some cloud in the coffee here, but there are always issues with each and every prospect drafted, that's why the success rate of finding a good starter for even the first pick of the draft is under 50%.

So far the Giants are picking up very good prospects in this draft, much like they did in prior drafts, particularly under John Barr, where a number of good looking position players are selected, plus the occasional pitcher.  Then, once they get that out of their blood, they start picking up their pitching by the bushel, the Giants have drafted a lot more pitching than hitting in every draft, it seems, under Sabean et al.  That shows the team's focus on pitching, both the predominance in drafting pitchers with their first round picks previously, but also the imbalance focus on pitching throughout whole draft, where they select more pitchers than position players even though a typical roster is 12:13 pitchers:position on the major league roster.

I think the Giants will look good when the analysts talk about their draft.  While some may see Panik as an overdraft, getting Susac should help them get over that, plus, really, Panik's draft position depends on how much you believe in his intangibles, it seems.  Giants really like the intangibles.  Kyle Click was good too, and I think getting Ricky Oropesa was a nice upside pick with their third round pick (I might cover him later, we'll see).

Your 2011 Giants: Giants Draft Pick #49 Kyle Crick

With the supplemental first round pick that they got for the D-gers signing Juan Uribe (Thanks!), the Giants selected RHP Kyle Crick.  BA had him ranked higher than Panik in their May 25th Top 300 ranking but the Perfect Game description noted that Panik rose a lot near the end, so perhaps BA upped him (they dropped Gary Brown in the follow-up Top 50 ranking that they did in 2010; they did not do anything similar this season).  Perfect Game had him ranked 45th, close to what BA had him ranked, and Sickel had him ranked 73rd.

BA had this short blurb on him after the draft:

At pick No. 49, San Francisco popped projectable righthander Kyle Crick of Sherman (Texas) High. After playing most of his junior at first base, Crick has been up to 97 this spring.

So he is a converted 1B, in his first season as a pitcher, and gets drafted in the supplemental first round.  That is pretty impressive.  Reminds me a little of Brandon Belt, who went the other route, changing from pitching to playing first base.

Baseball Beginnings had a recent video at their site.  There is also an old scouting profile from November.  The author, John Klima, really liked Crick, noting:

Kyle Crick is going to go good if I know anything. Not sure how you would find something not to like in this look.

Giants Thoughts

Nothing much to add, other than a high schooler who can throw 97 MPH got some good stuff that the Giants coaching staff can work with.  He has nice size, 6' 3", 225 lbs.  His main weakness is that he needs to build stamina, which can is something that can be easily remedied.

In Sabean and company I trust with pitchers.  There were probably other prospects who are probably more highly ranked than him, but the Giants have a pretty good track record in recent drafts.  And to get someone who is still pretty raw as a pitcher, I'm sure the Giants can mold him better to their ideal for pitchers.  And you can't teach someone who to throw 97 MPH.

Your 2011 Giants: Panik Giants Draft Pick #29

With the 29th pick of the draft, the Giants selected St. John's SS Joe Panik.  The choice is a bit underwhelming because higher potential players like Josh Bell, Andrew Susac, Austin Hedges, Dan Norris were still on the board.  According to Baseball America's Top 200 list, Panik is the 67th best player in this draft.  However, according to Perfect Game's Top 100 list, he is 39th best, and John Sickel has him as 45th best, both much closer to the Giants pick, though Sickel, in his second mock draft only had him being selected 57th.

As I've noted, the Giants tend to select before expected, as they have clearly have had a much different methodology than those used by other authorities, such as Baseball America, so this is not too surprising.

Here is what SFGiants.com noted:

Panik, a shortstop out of St. John's University, is the latest in a line of consecutive first-rounders that includes Tim Lincecum (10th overall, 2006), Madison Bumgarner (10th, 2007), Buster Posey (fifth, 2008), Zack Wheeler (sixth, 2009) and Gary Brown (24th, 2010). Panik is the first middle infielder selected by the Giants in the first round since 1988, though the club has plenty of familiarity with another former St. John's shortstop in Rich Aurilia.

The 6-foot-1, 193-pound Panik is a left-handed hitter and has one more year of eligibility at St. John's. In his junior season, Panik batted .398 with a .509 on-base percentage and .642 slugging percentage, hitting 10 home runs, 19 doubles and three triples with 57 RBIs. He stole 21 bases on 27 attempts and committed 14 fielding errors en route to being named a Golden Spikes semifinalist.

Perfect Game is the only place I could find any detailed information about Panik:

Bats-Throws: L-R

Height/Weight: 6-2/195

Hometown: Hopewell Junction, N.Y.

Previously Drafted: Never Drafted

Birthdate: Oct. 30, 1990

SCOUTING PROFILE: In one of the deepest drafts in years, scouts have lamented the lack of quality middle infielders in the college ranks. But Panik has quietly been moving up draft boards this spring and has reached a point, on the eve of the draft, that he might seriously challenge Hawaii second baseman Kolten Wong and North Carolina shortstop Levi Michael to become the first middle infielder taken. Even if he falls short, Panik could still slip into the back end of the first round. 

The New York-based scouts who have followed Panik since early in his high-school career have noted his year-to-year improvement, and that improvement was especially evident this year, particularly in his performance at the plate. He made a very easy transition to the new bat standards introduced at the NCAA level, hitting .402-9-56 vs. .374-10-53 with aluminum as a sophomore. He played a vital role in all phases of the game in leading St. John’s to an unexpected regional berth, topping the Red Storm in batting, homers, runs (59), stolen bases (21) and walks (42). Panik was also the glue to a Yarmouth-Dennis team that posted the best regular-season record in the Cape Cod League last summer, and reached the league final. 

Scouts are impressed with his excellent feel for hitting, especially his polished, disciplined approach and strike-zone awareness. He earns high marks, as well, for his smooth, easy, compact lefthanded swing and ability to barrel up balls on a consistent basis. He flashes power, but it is mostly to the gaps. The single quality that scouts may most admire about Panik, though, is his general approach to the game. He is a very steady, dependable player with an excellent work ethic and game awareness. He comes to play every day and goes about his job with no flash, just substance. He never gets too high, or too low. Panik consistently plays above his tools as his power and speed, and range in the field are limited. Though his raw speed is not an asset, he more than makes up for it with superior base-running instincts. 

Scouts are impressed with his long, lean athletic frame, but aren’t convinced he will remain at shortstop as he climbs the ladder in professional baseball. He has the soft hands and quick feet to play short, but his range and arm strength may be better suited for second base. He had labrum surgery on his shoulder following his freshman season at St. John’s and has some difficulty, at times, making the long throw from the hole at shortstop. Because of the way he plays the game, Panik ranks as one of the safer, more low-risk players in this draft, and that quality alone will make him appealing to a number of clubs.

Projected Draft Position: Compensation round.

Giants Thoughts

Again, Joe Panik appears to be made out of the same mode as Gary Brown last season:  neither were thought much of by the draft experts.  However, both led their league in hitting, and by a good margin.  The only difference is that Panik has relatively more HR power than Brown did in their junior year, though Brown had a higher ISO, edging out Panik.  Panik was tied for fifth in HR in his league, the Big East.

Panik was the leading hitter in his league.  He won the batting title, edging out the second place .398 vs. .397, but third is .366.  His OBP was also #1, .509, but by a larger margin, vs. .470 for second place.  His SLG was third at .642, behind .675 first and .665 second; fourth was .628 but fifth was .598, so he was significantly above most hitters.  His 1.151 OPS was first, beating out second of 1.140 and third of 1.135 and fourth of 1.086.

That last OPS belongs to George Springer, who was drafted 11th and is considered a 5-tool CF and was expected to be drafted in the top half of the first round.  However, Panik out hit him with a .398 BA vs. .350 for Springer.  That accounts for much of the OBP difference:  .509 vs. .458.  His SLG is also higher, .642 vs. .628.  His ISO is 244 which is behind Springer's 278.  He is also behind in SB, with 21 vs. 31 for Springer; both had 7 CS, so Springer was a slightly more successful base stealer.

Perfect Games description is pretty encouraging.  That was written on June 3rd and noted that he should be picked around where Kolten Wong (22nd ) and Levi Michael (30th) would be picked, and he was, just before Michael and 7 behind Wong.  They noted that he improved his hitting despite the switch from aluminum bats in college this season.  He also did well in Cape Cod, which is a league the Giants give extra weight to (Gary Brown did well there, but then again, so did Todd Linden).

They note that he has gap power, which works well in AT&T, particularly for a left-handed hitter.  He is, dare I say it, a gamer.  This is probably where the rankings marked him down:  his power, speed, and range in the field are limited.  His SB total reflects his superior base-running instincts rather than speed.  The cloud is that scouts are not convinced that he will remain at SS, as his range and arm strength are more that of a 2B, plus he had that surgery on his throwing shoulder.

I have to think the Giants think that he can move up the minors fast and contribute to the Giants within 2-3 years.  He is a very well developed college player with very little projection, as the scouts say, as a way of saying that he won't be much more than what he's showing right now.

I was hoping for a position player and at a middle infield position, so I'm happy overall.  My research had indicated that he's not viewed as much of a prospect in the talent rankings, but the Perfect Game description at minimum, shows why they ranked him 39th.  He would be a perfect #2 hitter to go with Gary Brown leading off, if he can develop into a major league hitter.

His profile will be similar to a St. John alumni, Rich Aurilia:  an offensive oriented SS with adequate defense.  Or, if Brandon Crawford or Ehire Adrianza turn out to be the starting SS (and Crawford is looking really good right now, particularly defensively), he could easily slot into the starting 2B spot, as nobody is looking particularly good right now (Culberson and Noonan are regressing this season, and Burriss apparently is going to be a super-utility guy).

2011 Giants Draft: Mock Drafts 2.0

After the second mock draft, a couple of names rise up beyond the Giants, based on the mocks:  Cory Spangenberg and CJ Cron, two position players I was hoping the Giants were considering.

Players who were selected by the Giants in the mocks include Robert Stephenson (2), Josh Osich (1), Joe Ross (1).  Other names who still might fall to the Giants include the following prospects (BA Top 200 ranking in parens):

• OF Josh Bell (15):  apparently he has notified all baseball teams that he intends to go to college, will take a lot of money apparently to sign, unless like Brave's Jason Heyward, wants to fall to certain team.  He goes to high school in Dallas, Texas, so maybe a Texas team might pick him.
• LHP Daniel Norris (16):  high schooler who appears to be available to the Giants in a lot of mocks.  Great K/BB (113:29 or 3.9; 62 IP, so high walks).
• C Blake Swihart (17):  bonus demands is pushing him back in the draft, but with the CBA expiring and the possibility that a cap will be placed on rookie bonuses, resulting in a uniform slot system, I think that a normal bonus should get prospects to sign now vs. later.
• SS Levi Michael (22): most mocks have him picked before Giants pick.
• LHP Tyler Anderson (24):  some say one of top college LHP, just don't get feeling Giants would be interested in him.
• RHP Robert Stephenson (25):  apparently the Giants are tied to him in pre-draft rumors, but a lot of mocks have him going before the Giants pick.
• 2B Kolton Wong (27):  dearth of top position prospects have boosted him in some mocks, probably will not be around when Giants pick
• C Austin Hedges (28):  most mocks have him available when the Giants select, he and Swihart might be attractive because of what happened to Posey.  
• C Andrew Susac (30):  most mocks have him gone by the time the Giants pick, but he's considered good offensively and defensively, which might be why he's going higher.
• LHP Matt Purke (32):  high bonus demands will push back, maybe with Giants supplementary pick?
• LHP Henry Owens (33):  high schooler who has been tied to Giants in some mocks, great K/BB (114:25 or 4.6; 77 IP)
• OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (34):  haven't really heard anything about him to think Giants might select, not a lot of power or speed.  
• RHP Tyler Beede (35): nobody has tied to Giants but great high school stats, 89 K's in 44 IP, only 6 walks, great K/BB of 14.8, 1.2 BB/9, 18.2 K/9.  
• Joe Ross (36):  some have tied to Giants
• OF Brandon Nimmo (37):  most have him going a few picks after the Giants, 
• Josh Osich  (42):  some have tied to Giants, but not sure why

Giants Thoughts

For the draft, you should always go for BPA:  Best Player Available.  If course, it is very debatable who exactly is the best player available.  Nobody thought that Gary Brown was that player when the Giants selected him, but he has had a great start to his pro career.  A lot of people didn't think much of Madison Bumgarner selection either, and there were some (a large contingent, in fact, at MCC) who adamantly thought that the Giants should have selected Justin Smoak instead of Buster Posey. 

Generally, the Giants select players that get people scratching their heads.  I once researched the Giants picks, comparing with which pick they used to select the player and where the player was ranked in Baseball America's Top 200, and the Giants generally selected prospects in the draft that were not expected to be drafted until at least a round if not more back.  Even Matt Cain was considered a bit of an overdraft (which is the term used when a prospect is selected way before others think he should have been drafted).  That is why they got the reputation for overdrafting, which, as the theory goes, mean that you did that in order to sign the prospect to a lower bonus, but in my study of bonuses the Giants paid, I found that the Giants generally were right in range with other teams, and, in particular, paid more than other teams for their top picks. 

That is, all that was generally true during the Dick Tidrow era; I'm not as sure about how John Barr's drafts have been relative to the BA draft ranking.  I should go check that out one day.

In addition, more players, it seem, each year is asking for crazy demands in order to push themselves back in the draft to better teams (which usually have more money too).  Buster Posey's $12M rumor was the biggest I had heard about (Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg don't count as they were clearly once in generation type talents) but I recall that a couple of players were asking for $10-20M in this draft.

Thinking about the Giants draft, they have been on a pretty good streak with their first round picks, particularly their top pick, in recent years:  Gary Brown, Zack Wheeler, Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum.  Of course, there was Tim Alderson and Wendell Fairley too.  But since John Barr joined team management, the Giants have had better luck drafting in the following rounds, Jarrett Parker, Brandon Crawford, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, among others.

2011 Giants Draft: Initial Scout's Mock Drafts

Some might remember that I was going to post some of my latest analysis on the draft, but I turn around and the calendar already says that the 2011 draft is happening soon.  So change in plans.

The Giants this season have the 29th and 49th picks in this year's amateur draft.  That is a result of having one of the best records in the majors, as well as replacement picks for some teams got for not signing their picks, and thus pushing the Giants even further back in the draft.  And, of course, Juan Uribe's bolting for the D-gers gave us the 49th pick (Thanks Juan and Ned!).

For this post, I compiled the mock drafts that are out (and one was actually a talent ranking - BP) to get an idea of who might be available to the Giants when they pick 29th (only Sickels looked at the supplemental first round):

• Frankie Piliere of Scout.com
• Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com
• John Sickels of Minor League Ball (suppl. first round)
• Patrick Ebert of Perfect Games
• Jim Callis of Baseball America
• Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus (Talent Top 20)
• Baseball America 2011 Draft Top 200 by Talent