2010 Spring Training Cuts

Hank Schulman captured the hitters cut yesterday and Andy Baggarly covered the pitchers today.

The hitters:

• Brett Pill, 1B
• Ehire Adrianza, SS
• Wendell Fairley, CF
• Johnny Monell, C
• Thomas Neal, OF
• Nick Noonan, 2B
• Hector Sanchez, C
• Jackson Williams, C

The pitchers:

• Craig Clark
• Rafael Cova
• Steve Edlefsen
• Eric Hacker
• Osirus Matos
• Clayton Tanner
• Dan Turpen
• Craig Whitaker

Plus, Steven Johnson, our Rule 5 draft pick passed through waivers and was offered back to the Orioles, who presumably will take him back, if not already.

None were surprising to my mind. Schulman noted the following, however, about Pill:

The only mild surprise is Pill, because I was told he would get a long look this spring. But that was before Aubrey Huff's defensive deficiencies became so apparent, prompting the team to give Buster Posey and John Bowker some longer looks at first base. Pill needs to get his work in the minor-league camp.

According to Baseball America, Pill is the best defensive firstbaseman in the Giants farm system, so that makes sense that they would want to look at him longer. However, as nicely as he did in AA last season, he was a 24 YO in a league averaging 24 YO and did not stand out from the crowd offensively. Only the best of the best in the league will move on to the majors and be successful.

For example, in 2008, Pablo Sandoval hit .337/.364/.549/.913, good for 9th in the EL. He was 21 YO. Wieters led the league in OPS and was 22 YO. None of the other "leaders" in the EL in OPS were highly thought of prospects, and age had to do with it. Only Nick Evans of the Mets (22 YO) was in the Top 10 and that young. Casper Wells (23YO) was 4th and is 16th in Detroit's system this season. Luke Hughes (23 YO) was 7th and has already fell off the Twin's prospect list.

It would have been a stretch to see Pill on the major league roster to start the season. And I suppose part of that interest to see him was driven by Ishikawa's injury with no clear take on what would happen until recently when they determined that he won't need surgery and would be ready for the season.

Meanwhile, Buster Posey continues to impress at 1B, which could be another reason Pill was sending packing (see Haft's nice article on Posey). Still, as this and other articles note, the Giants view Posey as a catcher, and Bochy's comments in this post affirm that: "I like the way he's catching. I want to keep him sharp back there." I think it is clear that Posey is the Giants catcher of the future and that the Giants will promote him when that time comes.

However, most probably that time is the second half of this season and I can see the Giants bringing up Posey and basically platoon him between C and 1B, giving Molina rests at 1B, and giving Posey AB's against LHP at 1B in place of Huff. And if they make the playoffs, he'll be a potent bat off the bench or perhaps even starting, depending on how poorly Molina and/or Huff is hitting, plus how tired Posey is, he clearly pooped out at the end of the 2009 season. And should they be lucky enough to make the World Series, he could be starting at either DH or 1B, depending on the situation regarding Huff's defense.

And that's the big news in this news blurb, that Huff's defense is causing a Giants re-think on how 1B is handled. Clearly, they need a strong defensive 1B on the bench now, meaning Posey won't cut it and Ishikawa, as long as he is healthy enough, will be that strong defensive 1B. Prior defensive stats (like UZR and Fielding Bible's Plus/Minus) suggested that Huff might have been OK enough there (about -0.5 wins) to warrant giving up the defense for his bat, but clearly there is some worry there now. And greater need for keeping someone like Ishikawa around all season for 2010, even though he's also a lefty and cannot really play any other position.

2010 Giants Non-Roster Invitees: 22 this season

This was blogged on by Henry Schulman last week, been meaning to get to it. Here is the list of names he reported on:

• Denny Bautista (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract))
• Santiago Casilla (RHP; former A's reliever, signed to minor league contract recently)
• Rafael Cova (RHP)
• Steven Edlefsen (RHP; BA rated him as best slider in 2008 annual)
• Eric Hacker (RHP)
• Osiris Matos (RHP; we dropped him from 40-man so apparently nobody claimed him and returned to us)
• Tony Pena Jr. (RHP; was in majors before, I assume signed minor league contract)
• Felix Romero (RHP)
• Dan Turpen (RHP)
• Craig Whitaker (RHP; top pick, been working his way up long time)
• Craig Clark (LHP)
• Clayton Tanner (LHP; local kid, been doing well, rising up, good luck!)
• Steve Holm (C; was dropped from 40-man last season when Whiteside brought up)
• Jonny Monell (C)
• Hector Sanchez (C; one of our better prospects)
• Jackson Williams (C; one of our sandwich draft picks, good/great skills, bad bat so far)
• Ehire Adrianza (SS; reported as major league ready SS skills, needs to develop hitting, still young)
• Brandon Crawford (SS; noted as SS of the future by Giants brass this off-season)
• Nick Noonan (2B/SS; hype has died down but this past season was first year he showed hitting discipline that scouts raved about when drafted, I'm very encouraged by his good improvement late in the season, but he needs to continue showing that)
• Wendell Fairley (CF; has been up and down as a prospect, but it's a good sign that they are bringing him up to spring training this year)
• Roger Kieschnick (RF; had very good first full pro season, still strikes out too much but shows all the skills he was advertised to have, very encouraging first year)
• Thomas Neal (LF, not RF as Schulman noted; breakout season, nice recovery from injury from a couple of years back, could be in majors soon if he continues hitting like that but in AA, remniscent of Pablo's rise)

Giants Thoughts

I totally and vehemently disagree with Henry Schulman's assertion that the Giants need to "develop three or four Pablo Sandovals and stick them on the field at the same time." It would obviously help, and I, of course, wouldn't mind that as that would give us one of the great teams in the history of the majors, but that is not critical to the team's success over the next few seasons. Perhaps this is why fans are so upset over the lineup, because reporters lead them to think that having so many great hitters (and Sandoval is a great hitter) in the lineup is a requirement to be successful every season in making the playoffs.

Heck, we didn't even have three or four Sandovals the year we went to the World Series (Bonds and Kent only, nobody else even broke 800 OPS).

Here is how special Sandoval was in 2009: only 6 hitters in the NL had a OPS as high as Sandoval's .943, only 4 hitters in the AL, for a total of 10 hitters in the majors, out of roughly 400 hitters. There are not that many players like Sandoval in the majors. So, no, we don't need to develop three or four Pablo Sandovals, that would be setting the bar waaay too high.

As I noted in my business plan series (linked to the side), when you have a great pitching staff, the offense does not have to be that good to win 90 games. With our defense (pitching and fielding) last season, we only needed to score 4.30 runs per game to reach 90 wins. That would have placed us comfortably 11th in the NL in 2009 (average runs scored was 4.43), behind the Washington Nationals which was 10th with 4.38 runs scored. With an average offense, we would have won 92 games.

Using Bill James projections plus our projected lineup, the Giants should score over 4.5 runs per game. To win 92 games averaging 4.5 runs scored, our defense would need a runs allowed average of 3.83, just slightly above last year's 3.77.

But James's projections tend to be on the high side, from what I recall. CHONE won for "best" projection for their 2008 projections, if I remember right. Using CHONE's projections, the Giants should score over 4.4 runs per game. If they did that, the Giants defense would have to allow 3.73 runs per game, or slightly better than last year's figure.

And I think that it is safe to assume something similar to last year's. Lincecum should be about the same. Any regression by Cain and/or Zito should be offset by Sanchez pitching well for a season (4.24 ERA overall but 5.54 ERA as starter before no-hitter and 3.46 ERA starting from no-hitter, and even without the no-hitter, he had a 3.83 ERA afterward, plus maturation and confidence and development for 2010, when he'll be 27 YO) and improvements in the #5 starter, whether Bumgarner or whoever, as our other starters (other then the four we have for 2010) had a 4.62 ERA collectively in 2009. Defensively, we take a big hit with Huff at 1B, but DeRosa and Sanchez are pretty good in the OF and 2B, respectively, which should balance things there. Plus Renteria's arm should be better with the surgery and Sandoval should be better with one more season of experience.

But I do agree vociferously with most of the rest of Schulman's post. "The Giants have taken the first step with some good position-playing drafts." I also agree with the Giants front office assertion that Baseball America was ill-informed when it criticized their system before, particularly in 2007 and 2008 when Sandoval was doing well but BA didn't think enough of him to put him in the Giants Top 30 prospects list.

I also whole heartedly agree that "Fans need some patience." Fans have not been patient. This is a long term process, and worrying that this might be the only year we can capitalize on Lincecum et al is fatalistic and shows lack of confidence, which I suppose is only fitting because these fans show no confidence in Sabean despite the great job he has done with the pitching staff. I, for one, am glad the Giants are taking the long view with regards to their strategy and not signing a Holliday (who I think is being overpaid in any case).

As I've been preaching the past few years, the Giants have been re-building and re-builds are never pretty nor cleanly done. It is never done with just home-grown players, there will always be free agents signed to fill in the gaps that the farm system could not fill. It will not be perfect, there will be mistakes, but you have to look at the big picture and see what team is coming out of the process.

What is coming out is a team dominated by a great pitching rotation, supported by a great bullpen, and has a developing offense, with Sandoval now in there (we have at least 5 more seasons of him) and Posey in the wings, plus a lot of good prospects percolating upward or already trying to make a name for themselves (Schierholtz, Bowker, Ishikawa, Burriss, Frandsen).

People are worried that the Giants won't be able to re-sign their young pitchers beyond our arbitration control because of the large contracts already committed (Zito and Rowand) but here I am putting my trust into Neukom's statement that he will get the money should we ever need it for a player. People have been assuming that applies only to free agents but I would have to think that it would apply to our own players as well, and Lincecum and Cain will be the first recipients of that largess, I believe.

Lastly, I would clarify one statement Schulman noted, that developing position players have not been the Giants forte. That's true if you are looking at the total number of position players developed. But that's not the whole story.

The whole story is that the Giants have been focusing their first round picks mainly on pitchers for the most part since Sabean took over as GM, and particularly after Dick Tidrow took over as head of player personnel. Those picks have the greatest likelihood of becoming a major league player, and even then, when you are winning, those picks become a good starting player around 10% of the time, which is pretty low odds. And they just get lower and lower, already around 1% by only the 4th round.

Picks like Posey (5th) and Wheeler (6th) become good players around 45% of the time, but by the 10th pick (Lincecum and Bumgarner) it has fallen to around 20% success rate for finding good starting players, and by the 21-30th picks, the ones that the playoff teams get, it is around 10%, as noted above.

That is a pretty low success rate, so while it is correct to say that developing position players have not been the Giants forte, there is a huge mitigating factor in that they had not been trying to be successful in developing position players, really, until 2008 when they drafted Buster Posey, Conor Gillaspie, Roger Kieschnick, and Brandon Crawford.

And, if Sandoval continues to hit like he did in 2009, what would you rather have: one Pablo Sandoval or a handful of Mark Teahen's, Bobby Crosby's, Dan Johnson's, Mike Jacob's? I would rather get a great player once in a while who you can't pick up easily via free agency, than a bunch of OK starters who you can pick up easily via free agency.

And Sabean has picked up great players over the years. Kent in 1997. Schmidt in 2001. Cain in 2002. Sandoval in 2003. Lincecum in 2006. And it is looking like Bumgarner in 2007 and Posey in 2008. Plus if Sanchez and Wilson continue doing well, I would add them to the list as well.

Oh, and I totally agree with Schulman that "they will be fun to watch."

Top 15 Giants Prospects - Baseball Intellect

Baseball Intellect's Alex Eisenberg has filled the void of analyzing prospect mechanics since Carlos Gomez hung up his Bullpen Mechanics and took a scouting job with a major league team and he has done it well. Recently, he published his Giants Top 15 prospects, 1-5 here and 6-15 here.

Giants Top 15 Prospects

1. Madison Bumgarner. Body type is strong, durable, athletic and projectable. His player grade is A- and his fastball was rated 65 now and 70 in future (on scout's 20-80 scale), curveball 45/55, change-up 35/45, Control 50/55, Command 50/60, and Pitchability 45/55. His fastball is electric and he can spot it where he wants. He shows plus-plus velocity at times and he's able to hide the ball well, making it hard for hitters to see it coming out of his hand. "Bottom line... Bumgarner has a chance to be special, especially if he can continue to hone his secondary offerings. Best case outcome - No. 1 starter; More likely outcome - No. 2 starter"
2. Buster Posey. Body type is athletic, especially for a catcher, but also a heavier lower half; he has room to fill out his frame. His player grade is B+ with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 45/55, Speed 40/40, Defense 55/60, Arm 55/55, Instincts 50/60. He "possesses good footwork around the plate and projects to be an at least average defensive catcher with the potential to become plus." "While the power ouput is still in question, Posey should be able to hit 35+ doubles along with around 15-20 homeruns on a regular basis. When you combine this with a solid batting average and the willingness/ability to take a walk, Posey looks like a pretty good offensive player... Posey could move quickly." "Best Case Outcome - Top 5 catcher, potential all-star; More Likely Outcome - Top 12 catcher... he's a very good offensive catcher, but there are still questions for exactly how much power he'll hit for."
3. Tim Alderson. Body type is tall, but coordinated and athletic. His player grade is B+ with his Fastball rated 50/55 (now/future), Curveball 50/60, Change-Up 40/45, Control 50/60, Command 45/55, Pitchability 50/60. "Overall, he's deceptive, hard to pick up, stays closed. This deceptiveness makes his fastball seem much more explosive. ... his stuff isn't overpowering but it plays up because of his command, intellect, and mechanics. Best Case Outcome - No. 2 starter; More Likely Outcome - Strong No. 3 starter."
4. Pablo Sandoval. Not qualified to call a prospect, but include because he's interesting player. Body type is short, but heavy, with little projection. His player grade is B/B+ with his Contact rated 55/55 (now/future), Power 50/50, Discipline 40/45, Speed 40/40, Defense 50/50, Arm 60/60, Instincts 45/50. He really likes Sandoval's swing, leading to a "very nice combination of contact/batting average and power Sandoval's drawbacks is his plate discipline. He's a high contact hitter, but also doesn't walk much and needs to be a little more selective... he does show an ability, however, to adjust to off-speed pitches. ... Best Case Outcome - The potential is there to be a top-5 catcher, but he becomes an average player at first base and a top-12 player at third base. If he were slated to play catcher, I would move his grade to B+; More Likely Outcome - Top-10 catcher, slightly below average first baseman, or average thirdbaseman.
5. Angel Villalona. Body type is big kid, needs to watch his weight, but he's only 17; however, is he that projectable? His player grade is B and his Contact is rated 40/50 (now/future), Power 50/60-65, Discipline 35/45, Speed 40/35, Defense 50/50, Arm 55/55, Instincts 35/45. He was extremely young for his level, so his ordinary numbers aren't too big a deal. Show strong power already but he's still very raw in the aspects of baseball where experience really helps, like his plate discipline, low walks, high strikeouts. His raw power rates as plus to plus-plus, and he shows terrific bat speed, a mechanically sound swing, and the ability to make hard contact. Already physically mature, he is not your typical ultra-talented, projectable athlete displaying his natural ability at a young age; he's already limited to first base. "Best Case Outcome - Middle of the line-up bat; Most Likely Outcome - Average to slightly above average everyday first baseman."
6. Henry Sosa. Body type is lanky, smallish build. Player grade is B/B- with his Fastball rated 55/60 (now/future), Curveball 45/55, Change-Up 35-40/45, Control 40/45, Command 45/55, Pitchability 45/50. Boasts perhaps the second best arm in the entire system, but the biggest question was his control, which he made strides to improve, though another issue is his ability to get deep into games. "Best Case Outcome - No. 3 starter; Most Likely Outcome - Set-up man."
7. Conor Gillaspie. Player grade is B- with his Contact rated 45/55 (now/future), Power 40/45-50, Discipline 50/55, Speed 45/45, Defense 40/50, Arm 50/50, Instincts 55/60. Has the potential to hit for a high batting average and already possesses strong plate discipline, but his power is still a question mark and he's below average defensively at third, though that should improve as he gets more experience there given his athleticism and work ethic, as his arm is solid enough. His value would increase if he were moved to second base, and he thinks he can handle the change; however, the Giants have Noonan slotted for 2B. "Best Case Outcome - Average everyday third baseman or above average second baseman; More Likely Outcome - Really good utility player... think about the way Mark DeRosa has been utilized over the course of his career.
8. Nick Noonan. Body type is athletic and projectable. Player grade is B- and his Contact is rated 40/55 (now/future), Power 40/50, Discipline 35/45, Speed 50/50, Defense 55/55, Arm 45/45, Instincts 50/55. Similar to Gillaspie but more upside in power, younger, and better defense; however, he has very little plate discipline, getting him the lower ranking. Feels he could end up with 15-20 homer power eventually with adjustments. Should be above average defensive player eventually, and could step in at shortstop if necessary. Excellent base runner, with 47 stolen bases in 54 attempts during his career. "Best Case Outcome - Above average everyday second baseman. More Likely Outcome - Average everyday second baseman... his worse case outcome is utility player role"
9. Kevin Pucetas. Body type is big and lacking projection. Player grade is B- and his Fastball is rated 50/50 (now/future), Curveball 45/50, Slider 40/45, Change-Up 55/55, Control 50/55, Command 45/50, Pitchability 55/55. "Pucetas is a four-pitch pitcher and doesn't have spectacular stuff, but it's good enough to eventually get out major leaguers. ... His best pitch is his change-up, which shows good tumbling action and an excellent differentiation between the speed of his fastball... Best Case Outcome - No. 4 starter; More Likely Outcome - Quality middle reliever"
10. Roger Kieschnick. Body type is big, strong, and athletic. Potential 5-tool player, but he's a low contact hitter. "Best Case Outcome - Average right fielder... he's got the tools, but he's a major long shot to hone them all; More Likely Outcome - Fourth outfielder... he's good enough at other things to provide some value to a major league team"
11. Scott Barnes. Most impressive was how dominant he was in his first professional season, despite inconsistent and somewhat stiff mechanics from his draft video. We'll get an idea of whether his performance was for real or just small samples in 2009. Player grade C+
12. Ehire Adrianza. "Here is a sleeper candidate for you...Adrianza is a shortstop with a very strong glove and an athletic, projectable build. The power isn't there yet, but he's shown excellent plate discipline in his young career, displaying both the ability to take a walk and make contact. He has a very short swing, but it's going to make hitting for power, as well as hitting the ball with true authority very difficult. ... He's a long way off, but good defense at shorstop combined with good plate discipline is a solid building block for a player to start from. Grade C
13. Aaron King. "King's mechanics are somewhat unorthodox and there are issues to iron out. ... Problems aside, there is a lot to like: King is young, projectable, athletic, left handed, seems to have an understanding of getting the body going and throwing with intent, and sports a low 90's, sinking fastball with the potential to add more velocity. He's risky, but he's worth taking a shot on. Grade - C
14. Wendell Fairley. "Fairley was mostly a disappointment last season. He showed little pop--just an .076 ISO-power and a .314 BABIP--and he hit the ball on the ground far too often. Fairley does have good tools...he's fast, athletic, has good bat speed,but his tools never really showed up in the actual games. He has to adjust his swing plane/path to have more lift after contact. One positive was he walked quite a bit, so it was somewhat of a mystery as to why he didn't use his speed more. Something to take away from last season: the final month of the season, Fairley walked in 16% of his plate appearances, while striking out in just 12% of his PAs. We'll see if he can carry that success over to next year. Grade - C"
15. Brandown Crawford. This he offered only to subscribers, so I'll include the whole thing. "Crawford looks like an intriguing player. He's a shortstop with some pop and patience. But there are some major red flags. I'm not sure of the exact number, but I don't think the success rate of players with significantly more strikeouts than walks is good, especially when that player has no other plus skill. Crawford struggles to make contact mainly because he struggled to center the ball last year as well as failing to recognize off-speed stuff. He would often get too far out in front. His swing is also a little armsy as he doesn't use his lower as efficiently as he could. Defensively, he lost a little bit of range a year ago, but he has good hands and fields what he gets to. He's not a bad guy to take a chance on because it could be he just had a off year in 2008, but I would say his chance at success is small unless he shows an improved ability to make contact. Grade - C"

I also asked him about Ishikawa, who missed the cut for this because he had too many AB by Alex's standards (100 AB): "I think he's a useful player. Good power, good patience, will strike out, won't hit for a high average...apparently he's good defensively though I haven't seen his defense...I think he's ultimately a platoon guy because he does have a pretty big lefty/righty split (and that is exactly how the Giants used him last year)...his bat isn't good enough to play first base everyday. If I were to rate him, he would be the team's No. 9 prospect and a B- prospect."

Not too bad, gives some hope for the future, though that future looks like a platoon, as most analysis has tagged him as that. But there is some value in that, and perhaps he can be a key trading chip later, or even figure out how to hit LHP.

Giants of the Future: Augusta

Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury had a really nice article on Villalona and the nice team the Giants are assembling at the Level A team, the Augusta Greenjackets of the Sally League (South Atlantic League). But read it fast, it will be gone in about 4 days from now.

For those who get the newspaper, there is a great picture of Villalona in there. It makes it very clear why the Giants are moving him to first base, he is Ginormous! The other pictures I've seen of him must have been taken from a very good angle, because he just looked big, but this picture really makes it clear that the Giants have to move him to 1B. After all, he's only 17 and still growing!!! Felipe Alou claims that it is just baby fat, and that he will grow out of it. I will just have to accept his word on that.

In any case, too bad he's probably moving to 1B because we have no one who is ready to take on 3B plus the best position prospects available to us at the #5 pick of the amateur draft this season are firstbasemen. Not that he wouldn't be valuable there too, just it would make our future lineup more clearer. Now we have a question mark at 3B for the future.

But what a nice looking future it is shaping out to be, here on the field in Augusta this spring and summer. Angel Villalona at 1B. Nick Noonan at 2B. Charlier Culberson at SS. Wendell Fairley in CF. Madison Bumgarner at SP, plus maybe Tim Alderson. There is some good info on them, but mostly about Noonan and Villalona:

• Noonan: He has the best strike-zone judgment of any Giants position prospect, according to some coaches. The Giants feel that Noonan's baseball acumen is so off the charts that they even put him on the travel roster for a Cactus League game last week. (Note: they might do the same with Villalona later this spring.)
• Villalona: Lots of quotes by and about him, so I thought it would be easier to just quote them from Baggarly's good article.
  

  Though he signed as a third baseman, Villalona - who is 6-foot-3 and appears
  well beyond his listed weight of 200 pounds - is working at first base and is
  expected to play there at Augusta.
  "I think I am better at first base," Villalona said with the help of an interpreter. "I feel more comfortable at first base, and they put me there for a reason."
  There are some concerns about Villalona's expanding waistline, though Alou calls it "baby fat" and said it's typical for young players to replace it with muscle when they hit their late teens.
  For now, Villalona is getting past the initial culture shock and beginning to settle in. He was soft-spoken but comfortable when speaking with a reporter, as Merengue music drifted from the iPhone in his locker.
  "I'm learning many things," he said. "I want to get my hands dirty and see what I can do."
  While some call him "Baby V" or "Big V," his teammates just call him
  Villa.
  "Villa is just a big kid," Culberson said. "He'll be in the outfield doing cartwheels and the next minute he's hitting bombs."
  Said Alou: "When he first got here, the other players were more advanced, in baseball and in life. He wanted to compete with them, and it was difficult. But I tell you, he is competing with them now. A year later, he is competing."

• Alderson: The reason he might be at Augusta is because he is so advanced that he might get placed with San Jose instead, like how Lincecum started out there (I'm not trying to compare their potential, though, because clearly The Kid was much more advanced, he was a 3rd year college hurler; I'm only noting the similarity of both starting up so high after signing)
• Culberson: During instructional league, he showed that he was pretty advanced with his glove.
• Fairly: Might be the best athlete in the Giants farm system.

One last thing about Villalona. He has been a sensation during spring training, hitting deep drives beyond the left-field fence, over a protective netting, clearing the trees and bouncing off the pavement about 450 feet away. And the vision of him doing cartwheels, given how huge he looked in the photo, is jarring. :^)

Other News

The fallout from Lowry's surgery and being out the month of April continues. Sanchez hasn't been doing well and thus is not holding the last spot in the rotation. The Giants know that Hennessey wants to start and will give him a start today, though there is no plans to stretch him out beyond 2 innings. I have to assume that Misch is in the mix as well. Any rumor about them adding a vet pitcher - I saw one rumor mill mention Kyle Lohse - I have to assume is media-driven speculation, the Giants have been pretty good this winter about going with youth where they can.

In addition, Bochy now says that he will probably have to keep 12 pitchers as a result of the injury. This means an extra guy in the bullpen and they are doing this because the uncertainty in the back of the rotation could result in the need for more relief appearances due to the #5 starter getting pulled early.

I think the team was also influenced by how well both Merkin Valdez and Erick Threets have been throwing, plus the desire to keep Jose Capellan. With a 11 man pitching staff, the Giants would have to lose at least one of them (all of them would be lost if not kept on the 25-man roster). They would also have to lose another if they keep Steve Kline. Valdez, if he continues to pitch well, could slide into a set-up spot and allow the Giants to move Hennessey to starter or long-relief.

Unfortunately, there is also news about Lincecum having a groin injury, so the Giants have shut him down. His slim frame and long stride could cause other physical problems if he should compensate for the groin injury while throwing. I think this was a good precaution.

The good news continue on Wilson and Walker. Both have been doing well, and Wilson was "sharp in his first save situation of the spring." He earned his first save of the spring striking out two and getting a groundout, exactly what you want to see from him as he relies greatly on his cutter that he learned from watching Mariano Riviera demonstrate one on TV.

Bumgarner and Fairley Signs Officially; Bonds End Near?

{First, on a personal note, I've been laid off, so paradoxically, I will probably have less time to post items. I will do my best to, but I've never been laid off before so I'm not sure how I will react to this news plus there is the business of finding a new job. To those thinking it, :^) no, it was not because of my work performance due to spending so much time posting, but just the trouble you get when the sector you are in is retrenching a bit and they need to cut costs to raise margins. Anyway, I was busy dealing with that, so hence this is a bit of old news plus as the title notes, some new speculation on my part.}

Final Signings

As this report notes, Madison Bumgarner and Wendell Fairley signed. All the hang-wringing and angst at all the public Giants watering holes were all for naught, other than to show who supports Sabean and who doesn't. As I noted all along, they were not going to hold out. They weren't that good, frankly, to turn down a sure $1-2M. Even if it don't work out, you go to college afterward and you'll still have that money (post-tax natch!).

They got about as much money as I suspected. They probably wanted the symbolic nature of "$1M!" and "2M!", hence why Alderson signed earlier than they did. Meanwhile Sabean did his job and waited them out to see how badly they wanted that figure.

Deadline Was Meant to Be

As I was thinking about this recently, I figured that the dynamics of the situation forced this to happen:

1. There are clear slots for everyone, so you can do nothing and insist on slot and probably get around there, depending on the team.

2. Each player has an agent, so to justify his fee, he has to drag on out the negotiations, to make it seem like the player got his money's worth - else why get an agent, just sign for slot and be done with it.

3. The GMs have an incentive to drag things out as well, they have to appear to their owners that they are locking horns with the agents and trying their best to get lower than slot from the players.

Those all add up to a lot of players signing at the last moment.

It's like I've been saying elsewhere: you just won the lottery and been picked in the first round. You are guaranteed at least $1M, maybe a lot more.

However, you can drop dead tomorrow, or your arm could fall off, or you could sleep wrong and suddenly your mechanics are off, or your lucky charm broke, and you won't get drafted that high next year, unless you are clearly that good and can show it like JD Drew and Luke Hochvear did in independent league. But still, the LF could run into you and injure you: suddenly you are out of the game and your career. But at least you got your $1M+ by signing.

Now hopefully they can go out and impress over a short period of time.

Bonds End Near?

The Merc noted that the Giants were going to sit Roberts more in order to play Rajai Davis more. Roberts was understanding but made it known that he wants to play. How does this affect Barry?

The problem is that with Barry and Roberts, we have two players who shouldn't/couldn't play every day, requiring more OF on the bench. Barry is too old, so he needs his rest, while Roberts should be platooned (.772 vs RHP, .463 vs. LHP in 2007) with a right-handed hitter. If Rajai shows enough to start, the Giants might just move Roberts to LF, where he is an above average fielder, and play Davis in CF, with, say, Ortmeier taking up the ABs against LHP (though he hasn't been that good against them either, but at least would be getting regular ABs). That would mean no Bonds in 2008.

And I'm beginning to go there as well. I understand he is old and creaky, but at some point, even if he's still the hitter he is, we have to move on, even though we would take a big offensive hit. If 2008 is to be a rebuilding year, it doesn't make sense to sign Barry at big bucks, it would only make sense to sign a great free agent player who can play everyday, unlike Barry. But I don't think there is anyone coming free after 2008 who qualifies. So perhaps if Barry can accept lower bucks, then he should be signed on.

But this depends on the widow owner, Harmon, she was the one who pushed to re-sign Bonds this year, and it could happen again in 2008, perhaps if Barry promises to retire as a Giants after the season ends. So it could just be that Davis is just auditioning to become Roberts platoon buddy in 2008, with hopes of starting in 2009.

Fairley Signs!

As someone kindly posted in a comment, Wendell Fairley signed today; here is the Baseball America notice. He signed for $1M, or $10,000 above the slot of $990,000. I don't know if I mentioned it in a post or comment, but I thought that $1M was going to be the magic number for Fairley because of the significance of that figure. I assume he also gets the package the other high schoolers got, about $100K for college if they decide to go at some point.

As mentioned in another Baseball America report, and by Chris of Bay City Ball in a comment, it appears that Madison Bumgarner negotiating position is demanding Clayton Kershaw money, the $2.3M that last year's top high school lefty got from the D-gers as their #7 pick. As we all know, you ask for more than you hope to get in negotiations, so I have to assume that Bumgarner's representation is hoping to get the money that Tim Lincecum got last year, which was $2.025M, which is higher than the slot money of $1.8M that this link says is his slot figure.

Giants Thoughts

While the BA report views Bumgarner as the most difficult to sign of the remaining first round picks, I think that the deal will be done because the Giants went over what they could have paid Lincecum last year as well. Based on the bonuses paid around him last year, Lincecum should have gotten only $1.8M, but he ended up getting the money that the #8 pick got with his $2.025M bonus. In addition, from my analysis of prior bonus signings, the Giants have always been generous with their first round picks and appeared to pay more than other teams were paying draftees around them.

So I have to think that the Giants will shell out the extra $225K to match Lincecum's bonus and sign Bumgarner. They could also be waiting until the Tigers report that Porcello is signed way over cap so that their piddly $225K over is a pittance in comparison. Or just do the signing tomorrow so that the announcement gets lost among all the other signings that are much more over the slot, as all the Top 5 picks will get much more publicity for their signing than our #10 would.

In addition, Bumgarner was not expected to go so high in the draft, most had him falling to the middle of the round, so if he misses out on this pick, he might not be so lucky in the next draft, particularly if he should do poorly at the community college, he risks falling to the back of the round next year with a poor performance. So it is possible that he could sign for less than the $225K extra, he might accept less, or maybe the Giants don't give him the money for college and put that into the bonus instead.

I understand the symbolic importance of $1M but Fairley probably lost much of that extra $10K in minor league salary lost from not playing for the past month and a half. And incalcuable experience. Emmanuel Burris really made a name for himself by signing early and playing well, persuading the Giants to jump him all the way up to Advanced A San Jose. Unfortunately he wasn't ready so he got dropped back to Class A Augusta, but Fairley could have done something this season to get considered for a higher class next season, but will probably just start out low now and see where that leads him.

In addition, the sooner you are in the pros, assuming you are confident of your abilities, the sooner you reach the majors and earn the $380K minimum, or whatever that is now. $10K is about a half weeks pay at the major league level. So he lost both monetarily and professionally by holding out until now.

But no matter, as Wendell Fairley noted minutes after being selected by the Giants: "[he's] a Giant now." Hopefully he can get some games in somewhere in the farm system in the final two weeks and get a taste, and be ready next season to move through the system. He will probably play in Instructional League, which is where Ishikawa first got his power noticed, so he will get a chance there to shine.

He and Villalona are our best chances right now for good position prospects and they are both at least 3 and most probably 5 or more years away from the majors. Hopefully Fairley can get a good running start going next season since he's missed out on this season. He would have to really dominate in the next two weeks to get pushed up for next season.

Breaking Down the Draft: Alderson and Fairley

Carlos Gomez continued his coverage of the draft picks while I was away. This article covered picks 21-30, and was published at The Hardball Times, which I RSS for easy checking.

#22, RHP Tim Alderson

He doesn't think his mechanics are ideal, but he does several things very well that he does like.

• He "does an excellent job of leading with the hips, while his back shoulder stays over the rubber."


• He "has an explosive stepover that kickstarts his hips and body into that aggressive, yet slightly abrupt finish."


• "I've always believed that pitchers who exhibit very aggressive movements with their lower bodies tend to be more effective with their offspeed pitches. I believe that this is because the hitter starts "gearing up" in response to what the body suggests the pitcher is going to throw (in Alderson's case, it looks like he's about to throw a 120-mph fastball). So anyway, I'd encourage Alderson to pick up a good changeup ASAP."


• "I tend to give a pass to quirky pitchers even if their mechanics are a little questionable. It's no secret that I like sidearmers, submariners, knuckleballers and pitchers with unconventional release points like Eddie Degerman. Consider this clip...[clip of Alderson from behind home plate] Doesn't that just look tough to pick up?"

From that video, yeah, it does look tough to pick up, he has a three-quarter arm slot. But I'm not that hip on evaluating pitchers, so I wouldn't on what I say. :^)

Carlos ends with this: "Risky pick? Absolutely. I'm not sure that Alderson makes it as a starter, but I like this pick here." Well, Tidrow said that Alderson might make it up in two years, so by then we should still have Zito, Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, and Sanchez in the rotation, and perhaps Bumgarner in the mix too, since that's his timetable too, so if Alderson is slated for the bullpen, he has a better chance of making that right now than of starting.

#29, OF Wendell Fairley

Carlos likes this pick over who the Twin picked #28, Ben Revere, saying they should have picked him instead. Looking over the two videos, even I, a non-expert, can see that Fairley has a much better swing. Some notes:

• "This was the Giants' third pick in the first round and I'm pretty sure that by this time they were thinking of the budget." My comment: yes, one would think that, but the Giants spent more on prospects last year, with Lincecum at $2M and Villalona at $2.1M, for $4.1M; Bumgarner probably will get around $2M, Alderson around $1.5M, and Fairley around $1.0M, for $4.6M. Also, there's the players in the supplemental, but two have already signed and the third is a college senior, so they were probably cheap signs, and we had a 3rd and 4th round picks in 2006, but none until 5th round this year, so that cancels out some bonus there as well.


• "...Fairley is a good athlete with a simple, repeatable swing. He may have to tweak it a little bit depending on what the Giants want out of him, but it seems like he has a decent approach at the plate." From what I gather from the USA Today mini-profile of Fairley, he digs the long ball, so I would have to assume he wants power.


• "He tends to get a little out in front and reach for pitches, with his hands out ahead of his body a little too much. He won't hit with huge power with this swing, but the potential is there." Which is good because Fairley likes "watching the ball get up there."


• "The best thing about Fairley is that he is a five-tooler that doesn't need a major swing overhaul in order to hit at the next level. " Sounds great to me!

Carlos concludes with "Considering the Giants' situation, I really like this pick here. Good upside."

I also asked Carlos for more comment on what Fairley needs to do to improve his power. His comment was:

• "If he is going to hit for big power, he has to develop more lift in his swing and also learn to "Stay behind the ball" better. Watch Russell, the Cards pick in round 4 [This is in his 4th part of his series, he is the first player examined, #31 in the article, 142nd pick overall]. True, his swing has too much of an uppercut plane to it, but watch how his upper body tilts back while he's hitting against his front side. Fairley needs to develop that swing plane (although not as steep as Russell) and stay "behind the ball". A great example of "Staying behind the ball"? Your own BarryBonds..."

Lastly, he also mentioned that he will evaluate Nick Noonan and Charlie Culberson, two of the Giants picks from the supplemental first round, in his final 5th part of his series examining players picked in the amateur draft last month. I'm looking forward to reading about his comments.

Happy 4th of July!

I'm Back; Various Thoughts

I'll be sure to get to the various comments when I'm fully back, but I wanted to write about a number of things that I thought about while on vacation.

Ishikawa in AAA

I know people think I'm beating a dead horse, but I've never said that he's a sure thing major leaguer, which is what some of my detractors have repeatedly said I've said. All I've ever said is that power hitters who hit like Ishikawa is rare, particularly at such a young age, and thus you have to give him the chance to succeed. Throwing him into Dodd Stadium is like having Maury Wills try to steal bases in Candlestick after the Giants overwater the basepath to make it harder for him to steal bases: it effectively takes away his strongest attribute and gives him no chance to succeed.

Some say that he should learn to do other things better then. Then why not tell that to Dave Kingman? He had a very long career mainly hitting homers and nothing much else. To take a more contemporary example, how about Adam Dunn? He's basically the same type of hitter: lots of homers (though not as much power), lots of walks, lots of strikeouts, but not that many hits (but probably a much better fielder than Dunn). There are plenty of players in baseball history with one-note, two-note type of skills (technically, Ishikawa has three, his homers, his defense, and his ability to take walks). Leaving Ishikawa in Connecticut just proves that he can not hit homers there, what purpose is there to that?

That's why I was heartened (though I did feel sad for him) when I was vacationing in Hawaii I read that state native Chad Santos was released by the Giants. He was the player standing in Ishikawa's way since they both are left-handed power 1B. And lo and behold, when I get home, first newspaper back and it notes that Ishikawa had been promoted to AAA.

And that's all I've been saying. Give him an opportunity to succeed or fail. Particularly for a position prospect-lacking organization like the Giants, it is the extreme in wastefulness to not give Ishikawa a chance to make it. To keep him in Dodd Stadium, where, as I showed with the various cuts of data, using the best comparative methodologies I know that is accepted for comparing parks within a league, is stupid. He proved he could hit in AA - look at his road stats last year, same as it was for lower levels - but not hit in Dodd Stadium, so move him up to AAA, let's see if he can handle better pitchers.

And people keep on harping on how much of a hitters league AAA is and thus how he does there is not reflective of how good he is so why promote Ishikawa. How simply unoriginal is that thinking! That is the biggest "DUH!" around, particularly if anyone has ever bothered to read through my prior years' posts. One of the things I have done in the past is to show where Giants prospects rank against other hitters in the league they were in because I do know that how well they do in that league is greatly affected by the hitting/pitching environment of that league, as well as age, so I also do a ranking by similar aged prospects in that league, to get a better feel for how they are doing versus other prospects in general and similar aged prospects.

So the point of promoting Ishikawa to AAA is not to see how well he hits there, but, with a more nuanced approach, you look at how he does against other prospects, knowing that he is now hitting against much better pitching than he did in AA. Does he adjust to the skill level or sink quickly? Or maybe he hits 20 homers, but where does that rank him in the league? And how is he doing relative to guys of his age?

I think that is much more important, though there are always less datapoints for comparison. Older prospects almost always have an advantage against younger prospects. Thus I take with a giant grain of salt whenever an older player is doing well in any of the minor leagues, particularly if he has 3 or more years in age over the bulk of the competition. Of course he should do better, he has many more years of experience.

Also, some people, even so-called experts who want to get paid for their thoughts, think that young players are irredeemable, that they cannot learn, but I wholeheartedly believe that young players can and do learn. Thus initial failure is a setback to me, but not the end of the story for me, as long as he shows his base skills are around, just hidden. It is better to see what he does with experience: does he learn? does he get better?

But the key to that is to put him in a situation where he can succeed and thus learn from his mistakes. Putting him back into a situation where he cannot succeed, where he fails even when he is doing exactly what he was doing before for success, will test even the greatest of wills and industriousness. It really puts him into an impossible situation, in my mind. If Tiger Woods was put into a situation where his 300+ yard drives are reduced to 200 or less, it would muck with his confidence, it would raise doubts in his mind. That's Ishikawa in Dodd Stadium, to me. Now that he's in AAA, it's up to him to succeed or fail, but at least he has that opportunity there.

Wendell Fairley on USA Today's 2007 All-USA High School Baseball Team

Look who got ranked up there with some of the position high school players who the Giants could have taken with their 10th pick: the 29th pick, Wendell Fairley. I was waiting in the airport and luckily found the USA Today Sport section (thanks sis!), which listed their 2007 All-USA high school baseball team. Was I happily shocked and pleasantly surprised to see him considered to be in the same company as Mike Dominguez, Jason Heyward, and Mike Moustakas.

Some factoids from the profile in the newspaper:

• Height 6'2"; Weight 190


• Bats left, throws right


• Was a two-way player in baseball, hitting .538 with 9 HR and 36 RBI, and going 9-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 109 strikeouts (unfortunately, they did not note how many innings; shameful :^)


• He played in the All-American Game in Albuquerque and was all-state in baseball and football.


• I like this quote: [I like] wooden [bats]. It's more of a challenge. You have to work harder (at the plate)."


• I like his favorite player: Barry Bonds. "He can hit it out of the park. I like watching the ball get up there." I wonder if he made it known to the Giants that he would sign if they drafted him while letting other teams know that if they drafted him, he would be staying in school if they weren't giving him, say, $2M.

The feature noted that reporter Christopher Lawlor selected the team "in conjunction with a national network of analysts, professional scouts, and prep writers."

Obviously, with no ranking, there's nothing to say that he's on par with them, but if he makes the team with them, he's probably not that far behind them. And that corroborates some of the talk I heard when we drafted Fairley, that he has top 15 talent but dropped because of personal issues (a hazing incident). But compared to the accomplishments of the other hitters, he's clearly below them.

However, this mini-profile makes clear to me a couple of extenuating circumstances that brings him closer to these other players. First, he's the only one among them to be an all-state football player. Now that he is devoting all his time to baseball, that should help with his development as a hitter. Secondly, he's the only one among the hitters to be a very good starting pitcher. He struck out 109, while among the two pitchers making this team, Rick Porcello, who was player of the year, struck out 112 (1.18 ERA, 71 IP), and Jarrod Parker, who also made this team, struck out 116 (0.10 ERA, 70 IP). Like with his split attention with football, his focusing on being a position player only will help with his development as well. And to steal from his quote above, he likes a challenge and is willing to work hard to achieve things. That's a great attitude to have no matter what job you have.

There were a couple of other Giants draftees mentioned on the All-USA Second Team:

• Madison Bumgarner: 6' 5", 200 pounds; 11-2, 1.05 ERA, 143 strikeouts in 86.1 innings.


• Nick Noonan: 6' 2", 175 pounds; .540, 15 homers, 55 RBI, 42 of 44 stolen bases. He was the one described as being Chase Utley-lite (much less HR power, 10-15 per year). How that is different from Marcus Giles-like (which #52 Charlie Culberson was compared to), I don't know.

Giants While I Was Gone

The Giants continue to sink as the offense continue to struggle while the pitching has continued to be the centerpiece of the team. I can only say how sad I am about this. 11 games is a lot to make up from the start of July and while it is possible, it is not probable.

Though I would add that if Cain and Lowry go on their rampage that they have gone through every August of their major league careers, and Morris and Zito can pitch competitively as well (which Morris has easily done, Zito sporadically this year, but Zito has been stellar in post All-Star relative to pre for his career, 3.26 ERA vs. 3.92), then I think the Giants can at least get to .500 and respectability, then can see where they are relative to the competition then.

But it is going to take a hitter like Durham, Aurilia or Roberts to take off and start hitting really well to jump start this offense. They will need a boost like that, like Durham last year, Winn the previous year, to get the offense going. Hopefully they can clear their minds soon and start hitting the way that they are capable of doing, that will get us going to .500.

I am hoping and praying that the Giants don't trade off any of their young prospects. Just keep them and see how they do. I can see trying to trade off Durham, Feliz or Vizquel (with Frandsen taking over) and Kline (with Misch taking over) during the trade deadline, with perhaps Klesko as a possibility, though he has been hitting so well, I hope we can keep him for 2008 since no 1B is ready right now. I don't think anyone would take Aurilia, but he could also play SS or 3B, so that could allow us to trade off an additional player above.

Go Giants!

Giants Draft Pick 6: Post-Draft Interview Transcription

On MLB.com or sfgiants.com, there is a replay of interviews with Dick Tidrow, Brian Sabean, and two of our draft picks, Tim Alderson and Wendell Fairley. Unfortunately, the sound quality is worse than that of teenagers taping their fake TV interview show in their parent's basement and is pretty amateurish - you can hear some of the sound engineers in the background stepping on the speakers. I did my best to write down what was said, just know that the following is incomplete because of the problems I noted. And they just spliced everything together into one long audio, so the respondents jump around a lot.

Q: Tell us about your two high school pitchers.

Tidrow: Bumgarner is a big strong, power lefty. Good breaking pitch, excellent command, he's going to be a fast mover, he's on the fast track. Has a power curve. Fairley is a 5 tool prospect, power, speed, CF. Noonan is a fast lefty, see him at 2B. Williams is an excellent defensive catcher, he's going to be a big league starter. Culberson we see as a 3B/2B combo, he has a good bat. Chase Corrigan, college pitcher, good curve, FB command, very athletic, lots of innings thrown.

Q: (Sound problems with previous response prompts Tidrow to talk about Alderson; remember this is not verbatim stuff, just my scratch notes off a lousy recording plus my memory on some stuff)

Tidrow: Alderson has a clean arm, throws harder, stronger, has good command, he's going to be a starter, not a reliever.

Q: Other pick's skills that come to mind?

Tidrow: (Noise cuts off name of prospect) has an excellent swing, good speed, will play middle infield, SS or 2B (Noonan? Does not sound like Culberson). Williams great skills at catcher, best in draft for defense.

Q: Why #10?

Sabean: Size, strength, development, track record, athletic development.

Q: Lots of high school players, will this take patience?

Sabean: Giants got talent across the board, diverse group, got the guys we wanted at each pick.

Q: Did you plan to pick so many high schoolers?

Sabean: With so many high school talents, we had to be ready and prepared to pick them.

Q: Fairley's tools?

Sabean: Speed, power, raw power, really can run, throw, 5 tools now, the Giants need to develop them.

Q: When will they play?

Sabean: Will play once signed, either Salem-Keizer or Arizona. If possible, want to send them to Salem.

Q: So the Giants got who they wanted at #10?

Tidrow: Giants targeted him and another pitcher. He's a lefty, big, strong, power, and can locate his pitches. In 1-2 years, he'll be ready for the MLB.

Q: Any concerns about Alderson's stretch delivery?

Tidrow: No concern.

Q: Talk about your pitching motion.

Alderson: I can repeat the motion and have a good feel for it. I am comfortable with it, it is natural and easy to do. I just want to keep things simple. I compare myself with Francisco Rodriguez.

Q: question on baseball draft.

Sabean/Tidrow (don't remember): to develop a player it takes 1200-1500 ABs, 500-1000 IP

Q: Bumgarner's secondary pitches?

S/T: Sweeping curve, cutter, bread and butter is his fastball away though.

Q: Comparable to Cain, another high school pick?

S/T: First year, we just make sure the pitcher is healthy. Both Bumgarner and Alderson are on the fast track to the majors. They have size, ability, and command.

Q: Was Boras a factor?

Sabean: We select talent first, signability and agent concerns second.

Q: Size?

Fairley: 6'2"

Q: Two sport player, is baseball new to you?

Fairley: Baseball is my main sport, the one I'm best at.

Q: Some have compared you to Carl Crawford, what do you think of that?

Fairley: I'm just coming out of high school (poor sound cuts some of the response)

Q: What skills do you need to work on?

Fairley: Sir, I play the field good, run; maybe hit for power is what I need to work on. There's always room for improvement, sir. Did some pitching too.

Q: Do you know if you will sign or consider college?

Fairley: "I'm a Giant now"

Q: Do you know if you will sign or consider college? Do Giants play in your high school stadium during spring training?

Alderson: I will talk with my family, friends and advisors and see how it goes. Yes, in high school I played in the Giants spring training facility. It is just exciting, just absorbing everything, the experience.

Giants Thoughts

I was going to write a post on each of the top 6 picks but I think I'll just wrap up by putting my thoughts here. Here is also some thoughts on them by the website, The Baseball Analyst, scroll down to the appropriate draft number. The comments there are very similar to what I've compiled below.


Pick #32: Nick Noonan


I've seen talk that he's like Chase Utley with less power, more likely 10-15 HR. Why they get people's hopes up by invoking Chase Utley when he seems more like a Marcus Giles - who, by the way, would be a perfectly good 2B to have to, just not elite like Utley - I don't know. Anyway, that's double digit teen homerun power to go with good base-stealing, probably on order of double digit teen stolen bases, I would take that at 2B if Noonan can deliver it.


Oh, found the reference, it was Baseball America who invoked Utley, Noonan's profile was posted on MCC, highlights: one of the most polished bats in the draft, he emerged as San Diego's top prep prospect, evoking comparisons to Chase Utley. Won't hit for same power, but he's also above-average lefthanded bat who profiles best at 2B. Plenty of baseball savvy, particularly at plate, making consistent hard contact. He struggled at first with wood but adjusted. Good basestealer, solid defender, one of steadiest players in this draft.


From MLB.com, his scouting profile says pretty much the same. His bat will definitely play at the next level, so he could be intriguing table-setter. Has ability to hit for average, profiles leadoff or #2 with excellent bat control and good idea at the plate. Not much power now, could develop 10-15 HR. Average speed, but smart baserunner, able to steal bases. Arm probably puts him at 2B, he would be solid defensively at 2B or SS except for arm. He has excellent instincts, he is an athletic, top of the order MI. Makes consistent contact and has excellent plate discipline.


I like the pick overall, have no opinion on whether they should have waited or not.


Pick #43, Jackson Williams


A lot of people don't like him being drafted here, thinks he was selected in order to save money. I don't agree, he seems to be a nice pick, not that I'm an expert on when a player should be picked. But he seems to be a nice package.


Williams is only a junior, just turned 21, and he was the starting catcher for three years for Oklahoma, which is in the Big 12. According to Boyd's World, a site that follows college baseball closely, the Big 12 was the highest rated conference in terms of strength as of June 8, 2007: http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/confisr.html. So he is doing this in the toughest conference for college baseball.


He is known as a defensive catcher - I've seen someone describe him as the best defensive catcher in the draft - but he started driving in runs this season as well, hitting .344 with 44 RBIs in 50 games (25 RBIs in last 20 games). I think it speaks to how good he is that he is in one of the top conferences, became the starter immediately, and now is one of the better hitters in a tough conference. And his offense improved each year, showing that he's capable of adjusting and improving:


2005: .263/.353/.419/.772; ISO 156
2006: .292/.390/.411/.801; ISO 129
2007: .344/.426/.525/.951; ISO 181


He had the team's third highest batting average and RBI total, and had 4 HR, 18 BB, and 33 SO in 183 AB. And he saved his best for Big 12 opponents, 27 RBI in in Big 12 games. He posted a .985 fielding percentage. He was named all-Big 12 Second Team by league's coaches and named first team All-Big by two local newspapers. The Baseball Analysts also noted that he is "an intense competitor and student of the game, Williams was the captain of the Sooners baseball team. He projects as a solid but 'low ceiling'" backstop."


I like the pick overall, and had they waited to the 5th round to select him, he probably wouldn't have been around. Sounds like a great defensive catcher, even better than Wieters, who I was hoping would fall to us at #5 this year. But the description above by the Baseball Analyst matches what commenters have been saying about him being a MLB backup at best. I like the fact that he was facing some of the toughest teams and pitchers in the NCAA and was able to adjust and learn to hit better against them. That gives me hope that he can do the same once in the pro ranks.


Pick #51, Charlie Culberson


A lot of people have a problem with Culberson because they think the Giants drafted him in order to save money, as he was not expected to go so high in the draft.


I read on MCC the day of the draft that he only gave the Giants and Braves a tryout, the former because the Giants drafted his dad, the later because he lives in the area, and he hit 6 HRs with a wooden bat in a workout for the Giants. Admittedly, probably BP HRs but the Giants got to see him up close and in different situations that apparently impressed them greatly. He was quoted as saying, it would be "really cool to keep the family tradition going with the Giants."


Now perhaps he was selected too "early" relative to where he should do (I've seen rounds 3 and 4), but would you rather be cheap and be "right" in principle by selecting someone else and watch him be taken by someone else or go with your eyewitness tryout experience? If Sabean really thought he was a better prospect, he should pick him now or forever hold his piece.


Stats for him: 123 AB in high school at shortstop, he hit .512 with .611 OPB, 16 HR, 13 doubles, 52 RBI, 59 runs scored. Not too shabby, but I thought Royce Clayton might be a homerun hitter too at SS because of all the homers he hit in high school too. He got a lot of exposure because his teammate, Josh Smoker, was heavily scouted.


BA (MCC post again) labeled him a "game in the mold of Marcus Giles." Said he's a baseball rat who is related to George Sisler and has a lot of intangibles. As I noted above myself, BA said that despite his power in high school, he doesn't project to hit for power in the majors.


I'm OK with the pick. They had him in for that tryout and he apparently impressed them. At that point of the draft, the odds of finding anybody good is pretty slim anyhow. People think they know better but really, if the major league GMs have a hard time finding the MLB player after the 20th pick, why do they think they know better when they don't have all the inside information that the GM have on the players.

Giants 2007 Draft 6 Pick: #29 - Wendell Fairley ("I'm A Giant Now")

With the 29th pick, the Giants selected Wendell Fairley, CF, high schooler, who bats left but throws right.

Now class, what's the significance of the 29th pick that has lived in infamy for a number of Giants fans? Bueller? Bueller?

Michael Tucker Experience

Yes, it was the Michael Tucker signing that the Giants flipped their draft pick, the 29th of the 2004 draft, in order to sign Tucker. People bemoan the loss of that draft pick, but this shows how you cannot judge transactions immediately in all cases. In this case, they lost the draft pick, but then they got a player back to replace that draft pick.

Today, we have Kelvin Pichardo, who we got in trade for Tucker. He is with San Jose this year, doing pretty well as a 21 year old: 25.0 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 10 BB, 39 K. Batting against him, .242/.306/.337/.642, BABIP .400 (so he should do better, he's suffering from bad luck), WHIP 1.32, 3.6 BB/9, 14.0 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 0.36 HR/9, 5% HR/FB. And that is in a hitters league.

Meanwhile, the Royals drafted Matthew Campbell, who is already out of baseball. Over the next 10 picks, the only players to have made the majors are J.P. Howell and Zach Jackson, neither of whom have done well.

Eric Hurley, the next pick after Campbell, was doing OK (i.e. not well enough for majors) until something clicked in 2006 at age 20 in AA, and he boosted his status greatly, he was #2 on Rangers top 30 list by Baseball America. Howell is struggling in the Tampa Bay farm system, not even on the top 30 list. Jackson is #16 Brewers (traded by Toronto) but hasn't done well at all in upper levels. Next was Justin Orenduff, he is #14 on Dodgers, but coming off injuries, and his ceiling is back-of-the-rotation starter at best.

Tyler Lumsden, 34th pick, was traded to Royals in 2006, after missing all of 2005, he's #5 on Royals. Matthew Fox is not on anyone's BA Top 30 list. Danny Putnam is #16 on A's, he struggled in AA last season and got send back down to A-ball. Jonathan Poterson, Yankee's pick at 37, is not on their Top 30 list.

Giovany Gonzalez is probably the best of the 10 picks after the 29th pick, he has already been traded by the ChiSox to Phillies and then ChiSox got him back in another trade. He's #3 on ChiSox. Lastly, Jay Rainville is #16 on Twins prospect list.

Now unless a player is somewhere in top 2 to 4 of a team's top prospect list, I've found that they don't normally amount to much, there is not that much talent below that, except for relievers. So among the picks examined above, while Pichardo does not rank at all in the Giants prospect list, at least they got a player who is doing well in the minors and he's still very young, only 21 years old this year. Of the players drafted after our pick, Hurley and Gonzalez looks like they will make something of themselves, but the rest are not really that much better than Pichardo and a couple are already out of baseball.

It just goes to show that even in that "low" a pick, the odds of finding a good player is very low, it is 3 years later and no one has made the majors to stay among this group, no one has even done well at AAA before this season, let alone made the majors to stay. Hurley looks like he is finally figuring out something, but now he has to prove it wasn't a fluke by doing well this season in AAA. Only Gonzalez seems like a prospect who will make something of himself.

Fairley Good

There is not a lot of information out on him, even MLB.com was not prepared with a scouting report on him. His BA information was provided on MCC and since it was probably not legal, I won't copy it here, but since the cat is out of the bag, I'll give some highlights:

• his "tools are unquestioned";
• he can hit for average and plus power;
• his quick lefty stroke allows him to pull the ball out of the park;
• plus runner;
• solid-average arm/defense, perfect for CF;
• just scratching surface of potential, could develop into mold of Carl Crawford;
• also noted his problem with law (dropped) and that he is a 19 year old father;
• mystery to scouts because he also played football and didn't play in any showcases.

Sounds pretty good, eh?

I also recall that in the ESPN show on the draft, Keith Law or another analyst noted that Fairley has top 10-15 talent, but fell to the end of the 1st round because of other issues.

I'm a Giant Now

There was also a link to a conference call (horrible, by the way, did my best to transcribe but notes are sloppy) on either MLB.com or sfgiants.com, and I will summarize in another post but will put Fairley's info here first.

• Tidrow noted that Fairley has "5 tool, power, speed, CF".
• Sabean noted that Fairley has speed, raw power, really can run, throw, has 5 tools now but need to develop them now. In his Thursday KNBR show, Sabean noted that he likes Fairley's bat, he has a high ceiling, and just needs to grow into his tools. Unlike Bumgarner or Alderson, both of whom Sabean (and Tidrow) has said could move fast and make the majors in as little as two years, there has been no timetable on how long Fairley will take.
• Fairley was interviewed: while he played two sports, baseball was his main sport, his best sport. I found him to be fairly humble and polite, called one reporter, "sir" and replied "no sir" to another. Someone asked him about the comparison to Carl Crawford and (again very fuzzy with lots of background noise, like I noted, OK for first try at making into event, but execution was poor) he demurred, noting that he just came out of high school. When someone asked him what skill he needs to work on, he noted that hitting for power is one area but then quickly noted that there is always room for improvement.
• Thought I would end on a good note: when asked if he would sign or need time to decide, he had a great answer: "I'm a Giant now." Get that kid a Giants uniform now!

Overall, he sounds like a great pick. I don't know how bad that hazing incident that got him in trouble with the law was, but he sounded like a nice humble guy who realizes that he has a lot to learn but is willing to work hard to learn it. I'll chalk that problem up to youthful indiscretion, when you don't know any better when you are a teenager (or know better but do it anyway). I really liked the way he talked in the interview, no red flags were raised, he sounded like a nice guy looking to start his professional career, knows he has a lot to do, but willing to do what it takes. Perhaps being a father already gave him that motivation.

He sounds like the best position prospect that we have had in ages (well, at least before Villalona; won't they make a nice pair of call-ups in 4-6 years, or less?) and he helps makes up for the fact that we passed up a few premier position talents in Dominguez, Heyward, and Mills, particularly Heyward since I've seen a number of descriptions of him being remniscent of Willie McCovey. He's noted as a Top 10-15 pick by talent so he's equivalent enough to them to satisfy me - and I do like Bumgarner and Alderson and the fact that Sabean and Tidrow both noted that they are on the fast track and could advance to the majors in as short as 2 years, so despite them not being college players, they could provide return to the Giants in perhaps even a shorter timeframe, few prospects make the majors in 6 years, let alone 2 years. And there's no way the Giants would have gotten anyone as good as Bumgarner in the 29th pick had they selected any of those three hitters.