As reported by various sources, future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander signed with the Giants for one year, $15M. There are a couple of good analyses on why he might be a good signing:
As reported widely, the Giants signed Blake Snell to a two-year contract for $62M, with an opt out. They also split each season's contract roughly in half, with half paid one season, the rest paid as bonus two years later, spreading the cash flow over the next four years, essentially.
The Modern MLB Rotation Chaos Portfolio Theory is the name I've given Farhan Zaidi's management style for modern MLB rotations, which is basically, letting chaos reign, but ending up with a good starting pitching success.
I've derived the name from my finance training, cribbing from the Modern Portfolio Theory. From Corporate Finance Institute: The Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) refers to an investment theory that allows investors to assemble an asset portfolio that maximizes expected return for a given level of risk. The theory assumes that investors are risk-averse; for a given level of expected return, investors will always prefer the less risky portfolio."
The idea behind this theory is that one can create a portfolio of assets that are high risk, but with sufficiently independent industries and market factors, the overall risk of the portfolio is much lower, because, under this theory, one industry going down is just as likely as another going up, and thus the risks cancel each other out, reducing the risk of the overall portfolio.
The idea for the Modern MLB Rotation Chaos Portfolio Theory is similar in concept, in that the risk of any particular pitcher being injured or not very good may be high, but when you have enough pitchers on your team who are projected to be good (in this case, better than the NL SP average ERA of 4.56) when healthy, your 162 starts per season is covered by your portfolio of potentially injured, but usually good, starting pitchers.
One of my pet theories for over a decade now is that once the Giants get to the dog days of August, they should go to keeping the rotation on a five day rest rotation, even when there is no rest day during a week, usually happens at least twice in August, and sometimes more, because rain outs are sometimes scheduled in August to make up that game. Now there is a study that validates that theory and suggests keeping to it all season long.
So I read this blurb (in July) on the Dodgers at The Athletic (subscription required to read):
Their biggest need is likely to bolster a bullpen that is now down Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson and Tommy Kahnle. Craig Kimbrel has been shaky just about every time out. The cracks are forming. While trading for a frontline starter to replace Walker Buehler would help, as would fortifying their bench with a quality fourth outfielder, they just need enough arms right now. — Fabian Ardaya
And that reminded me of the biggest problem I have with Zaidi's current strategy for pitching, what I would call the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) of Pitching: and I'll quasi-quote him here, he's not looking for starting pitchers, he's looking for pitchers who can help him get to 162 starts in a season.
The problem: Stratton has a mediocre four-seam fastball (91.8 mph) and, if you lower the bar to 100 curveballs thrown, the fastest-spinning curveball in baseball (3,105 rpm). Batters hit .292 against his fastball, but only .100 against his curveball. But he’s stuck in an old-school way of pitching: 61% fastballs and only 18% curves.
The symptoms: Lefthanded hitters crushed Stratton, lighting him up for a .811 OPS, while he held righthanded hitters to a .670 OPS. Stratton throws his curveball even less often to lefties (17%) than to righties (21).
The mechanics: They need work. Stratton has poor arm deceleration, meaning his arm and hand brake too soon after release. He can improve velocity by working on better deceleration. He also can throw harder by driving his head and torso more toward the plate; he has a tendency to drift toward the first-base side of the mound while releasing the ball. Bottom line: there’s more in there.
How to get Morton-ized: Increase curveball percentage to lefthanded hitters, work the high fastball/curveball tunnel more often, and tighten mechanics.The problem the article noted was that the Giants are one of the leaders in the majors in using the cut fastball. It also noted how some pitchers were talked into using their better pitches more often and their fastball less.
