A recent column by Monte Poole of the San Jose Mercury (sorry, no link, they only provide a 7 day window of access to their articles) boldly proclaiming that the A's "Fire sale exposes baseball's talk about integrity as fraudulent." I have an alternative, more accurate view: it exposes Billy Beane's mismanagement of the talent on the A's and A's ownership's pocketing of over $100M in EBITDA in the past six seasons.
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Showing posts with label A's. Show all posts
Showing posts with label A's. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 04, 2012
Monday, November 21, 2011
Money Paves the Way to San Jose
Sorry, no links, but the news is that Selig is suddenly moving forward with the A's desire to move to San Jose, and will meet with the Giants about this.
I guess the other news is that San Jose has sold an option to Wolff to purchase the parcel of land that they are hoping to build the stadium on. Sold for $50,000, the city spent something over $25M to buy those pieces but has agreed to sell it to Wolff for just under $7M. Hope that is contingent on a stadium deal, else he just made a lot of money off the backs of San Jose citizens.
The catch there is that the city has not finished buying all the parcels of land, that is why they are selling him those parcels, in hopes that he can finish up that process, as the city is tapped dry apparently by the fiscal crisis that has hit most state and local governments since the Great Recession.
I guess the other news is that San Jose has sold an option to Wolff to purchase the parcel of land that they are hoping to build the stadium on. Sold for $50,000, the city spent something over $25M to buy those pieces but has agreed to sell it to Wolff for just under $7M. Hope that is contingent on a stadium deal, else he just made a lot of money off the backs of San Jose citizens.
The catch there is that the city has not finished buying all the parcels of land, that is why they are selling him those parcels, in hopes that he can finish up that process, as the city is tapped dry apparently by the fiscal crisis that has hit most state and local governments since the Great Recession.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Your 2011 Giants are 39-30: Playing the A's at Home Away From Home
I expect O.Co Coliseum to be orange in envy, as Giants fans should take over the stadium, as it has done to many teams since our glorious 2010 World Championship (heck, fans did it to San Diego at the end of last season too!).
Are the A's serious? They are putting up a rookie who had a lousy first outing up against Big Time Jimmy Tim, another nobody up against Dirty, then their flailing ace against Cainer. I would be upset if there is not a series win and a sweep should not be out of the question, the A's have lost a lot recently, so not like the 2010 Giants. It is all here, at this link, of Probable Pitchers for the series.
They had lost 9 in a row with Geren, the first with Melvin for a 10 game losing streak, but has been .500 since then for new manager Bob Melvin, though that is because they got to play the KC Royals at home, if that is not a recipe for winning a series, I don't know what is (they have played roughly .333 on the road, which is the winning percentage of winning one game out of three on the road).
The A's have actually been OK at home, playing .500, but then again, they are facing the Giants top three starters, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain. And they are sending up two rookies like lambs to the slaughter. Graham Godfrey gave up 5 runs in 4.1 IP while walking 2 and striking out only two. Even a struggling Lincecum should be able to get a win against him. Guillermo Moscoso has a 3.91 ERA, but in 25.1 IP, he has 11 walks and 11 strikeouts, he's been living on some luck or has a pitch that can really induce a lot of popups. That type of pitcher sometimes do give the Giants fits, but Dirty has been very good this season. The Giants should win the first two games of the series.
The Trevor Cahill game is the only one that they have a good chance of winning. He has basically given up only one run per start to the Giants, his ERA is 1.37 in his career, two starts at home, one start in SF earlier this season.
Unfortunately for the A's the Cainer has had some of his best performances against them, 2.30 ERA career, 1.38 ERA in the Coliseum, including two shutouts in three starts. I would call it even for that game.
Giants Thoughts
In another universe, I probably would have become one of those Giants fans who support the A's too, but the meanness of A's fans have burned that bridge long ago (Giants are going to be The Team of the 2010's, put that in your green and yellow hats and smoke it!). I would be happy if they moved away, even happier if they would move to the South Bay and pay the Giants around $100M for those rights - they never rightfully paid the Giants for entering their territory in the first place in the 1960's anyway, they really should not have any rights to the SF Bay Area. It would only be right if they ponied up that money (or assets) to the Giants now for the rights to the South Bay. And then the Giants could use that money to keep Lincecum around longer, win-win.
The Giants better win the series, that is all I can say, and it would be even better if we can sweep them and show them how much of a sham all those reporters talking up the 2011 A's as a repeat of the 2010 Giants. Not even, Billy Beane has no real strategy for winning and Mr. OBP does not even follow the advice of the organization that he was happily quoted for, Baseball Prospectus, on how to be successful deep into the playoffs.
Meanwhile Brian Sabean, who Baseball Prospectus BEGGED the Giants to fire before the 2010 season, has basically followed the formula that BP (and THT) had laid out as the way to win in the playoffs: defense, particularly pitching, with high K/9 pitching staff and a great closer. Beane still does not get that a closer is a key part of a winning team, he has been using his stale old-saber theory that closers were replaceable cogs that are easily replaced. Sabers who think that is so just don't understand that there is a lot of the game that you can't quantify, this is no fantasy baseball league, these are real people.
Go Giants!
Are the A's serious? They are putting up a rookie who had a lousy first outing up against Big Time Jimmy Tim, another nobody up against Dirty, then their flailing ace against Cainer. I would be upset if there is not a series win and a sweep should not be out of the question, the A's have lost a lot recently, so not like the 2010 Giants. It is all here, at this link, of Probable Pitchers for the series.
They had lost 9 in a row with Geren, the first with Melvin for a 10 game losing streak, but has been .500 since then for new manager Bob Melvin, though that is because they got to play the KC Royals at home, if that is not a recipe for winning a series, I don't know what is (they have played roughly .333 on the road, which is the winning percentage of winning one game out of three on the road).
The A's have actually been OK at home, playing .500, but then again, they are facing the Giants top three starters, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and Matt Cain. And they are sending up two rookies like lambs to the slaughter. Graham Godfrey gave up 5 runs in 4.1 IP while walking 2 and striking out only two. Even a struggling Lincecum should be able to get a win against him. Guillermo Moscoso has a 3.91 ERA, but in 25.1 IP, he has 11 walks and 11 strikeouts, he's been living on some luck or has a pitch that can really induce a lot of popups. That type of pitcher sometimes do give the Giants fits, but Dirty has been very good this season. The Giants should win the first two games of the series.
The Trevor Cahill game is the only one that they have a good chance of winning. He has basically given up only one run per start to the Giants, his ERA is 1.37 in his career, two starts at home, one start in SF earlier this season.
Unfortunately for the A's the Cainer has had some of his best performances against them, 2.30 ERA career, 1.38 ERA in the Coliseum, including two shutouts in three starts. I would call it even for that game.
Giants Thoughts
In another universe, I probably would have become one of those Giants fans who support the A's too, but the meanness of A's fans have burned that bridge long ago (Giants are going to be The Team of the 2010's, put that in your green and yellow hats and smoke it!). I would be happy if they moved away, even happier if they would move to the South Bay and pay the Giants around $100M for those rights - they never rightfully paid the Giants for entering their territory in the first place in the 1960's anyway, they really should not have any rights to the SF Bay Area. It would only be right if they ponied up that money (or assets) to the Giants now for the rights to the South Bay. And then the Giants could use that money to keep Lincecum around longer, win-win.
The Giants better win the series, that is all I can say, and it would be even better if we can sweep them and show them how much of a sham all those reporters talking up the 2011 A's as a repeat of the 2010 Giants. Not even, Billy Beane has no real strategy for winning and Mr. OBP does not even follow the advice of the organization that he was happily quoted for, Baseball Prospectus, on how to be successful deep into the playoffs.
Meanwhile Brian Sabean, who Baseball Prospectus BEGGED the Giants to fire before the 2010 season, has basically followed the formula that BP (and THT) had laid out as the way to win in the playoffs: defense, particularly pitching, with high K/9 pitching staff and a great closer. Beane still does not get that a closer is a key part of a winning team, he has been using his stale old-saber theory that closers were replaceable cogs that are easily replaced. Sabers who think that is so just don't understand that there is a lot of the game that you can't quantify, this is no fantasy baseball league, these are real people.
Go Giants!
Friday, May 20, 2011
Nate and Romo Love
There are two misbeliefs out there that I disagree with (at least two that I will tackle in this post :^). One is that the Giants and Bochy don't like Nate Schierholtz. The other that Bochy don't like Romo. The latter is more opinion, less fact, but it is what it is.
Nate the Great
I see a lot of people saying that Bochy doesn't like Nate but I just don't see it. Looking at his usage pattern in the past, if anything, the Giants have tried multiple times to bend over backward and give him the starting RF job, but he would eventually hit his way out of the lineup, which I've attributed to 1) his penchant for injuring himself and 2) his penchant to continuing to play when he wasn't 100%.
In his first season, 2007, out of the Giants last 25 games, in September, he got into 24 of them, starting 15 of them, for a total of 73 PA/71 AB. He hit .282/.288/.394/.682, showing some potential. In 2008, he didn't get a call-up until September, but out of the Giants last 25 games, he got into 19 games, starting 18 of them, for a total of 81 PA/75 AB, hitting .320/.370/.493/.864, showing more of his potential.
In 2009, I think he was out of options, so he was with the team the whole season. Lewis, Rowand, Winn were the starters so he didn't get a lot of playing time, though still compiling 116 games, 285 AB. Lewis got a lot of rope, basically not hitting from mid-April to mid-June before Bochy mercifully sat him down, which opened starting time for Nate.
Nate starting getting regular starts on June 11th, and he earned his time over the next 3 weeks, starting in 16 of the next 21 games (playing in all), batting .406/.443/.609/1.052 with 3 HR in 64 AB. But as hot as he was then, he then cooled off over the next 3 weeks, still starting, 14 out of 19 games (playing in all), but hitting .242/.262/.339/.600 with 1 HR in 62 AB, until he injured himself and went on the DL. Once he returned, he continued to get starts, starting 15 out of 23 games (playing in 20), but hitting .200/.250/.383/.633, so he fell out of the rotation, only starting 6 of the next 26 games (though playing in 18), hitting .219/.286/.281/.567 with 0 HR in 32 AB.
In 2010, he lost the battle for RF in spring training, but Bowker soon hit his way off the team and organization. It also helped that Rowand got injured and opened playing time for Nate to show he belonged: over 3 weeks, he started 16 games out of 17 games, hitting .393/.469/.607/1.076 with 1 HR in 56 AB.
However, he made a diving catch in the first inning of the Phillies game in SF on April 27, 2010, which appears to not affect him immediately as he continued hitting well for the next 7 games, but he admitted this year that his right shoulder severely affected him the rest of the season, particularly after diving back into firstbase on May 19th. By then he had already been in a horrendous slump - .171/.209/.171/.380 in 11 starts out of 12 games - and the injury took him out of games for two days and out of the lineup for a week.
Once he returned, he started 3 of next 6 games (played in 5), hitting an anemic .091/.286/.091/.377, and after that, from June to the rest of the season, he didn't really get a chance to start again, which made people mad at Bochy and the Giants, but as Nate noted, he couldn't really hit well regularly as his shoulder did not heal because he came back too soon and it never ready got healthy until he stopped doing things over the off-season and worked at getting his shoulder healthy.
So this timeline is why I didn't really believe the rumors that Schierholtz was seriously on the trading block. Bochy has previously put him into the lineup and kept him there until his poor hitting forced the Giants hand. And clearly, to me at least, injuries have played a significant part of his cold periods and eventual benching. As Bochy said in an interview after the 2011 season began, it was a given to him that Nate was coming up with the Giants, never in doubt, though apparently Nate did not know that until nobody told him to pack up.
And that brings me to yesterday's game when I heard about Nate's dive. I instantly flashed back to all his other diving injuries which led soon to his benching. I really like Nate as a Giants and been rooting for him since he was clobbering pitchers in the Sally League for Hagerstown, and really loved him when I learned he was a Giants fan, like me, even though we grew up in the East Bay, plus I have college rooting interest as we both "played" baseball at Chabot College (I only took their summer program, thinking I would get into games, but there was maybe 2-3 people showing up, so we ended up spending the whole class feeding the pitching machine to each other; which was ultimately even better as I got to face high velocity pitches for the first time and got an appreciation for the hitters who claimed that they could see the stitches on the ball rotating; it was great just getting to hit over and over like that).
I think the Giants really like Nate's abilities, based on how they have given him the starting job, for the most part, a number of times and let him keep it for a while even while he struggled. But when Belt comes on the team, it will push one of the outfielders off the team, and it has appeared to me to be Nate all off-season so I was pretty sad thinking about that, as I still think he can be a good regular starter in the majors. An injury now won't help his case, though if he stinks it up really good, maybe no team will touch him and we can stash him in AAA until 2012. But his defense is so good that I wholeheartedly believe that another team will pick him up and stash him on their bench, an up and coming team looking for good pieces for their team in 2012.
So I'm rooting hard for Nate right now as this could be his last chance to stick with the team. He's been hitting very well and if he can continue hitting like this into mid-season, at least to July, that increases the chances that the Giants might decide that the best thing to do would be to DFA Aaron Rowand and eat his contract. He does not even have to hit for that much to be very valuable to the team given how good his RF defense is.
Our 2012 OF, believe it or not, is actually not that certain. Pat Burrell and Cody Ross are both free agents, and Andres Torres, as much as I believe in his new batting mechanics and abilities to sting the ball, will still be 34 years old, an age when players abilities often fail them and the end is nye. So keeping a young guy with potential like Nate would behoove the Giants, I believe.
And then there is Rowand, whose new batting stance is about the weirdest I've ever see a professional hitter use, and I recall Joe Morgan's elbow flap, seen Mel Ott's leg lift, heck, I would even rate it weirder than Gary Brown's jittery batting stance in college. It looks like he is bending backwards unnaturally then suddenly snaps to the proper normal batting stance once the pitcher starts throwing. I don't see how he can keep his eye on the ball while his head is moving like that. Just seems to add another layer of difficulty on his eyes and brains needing to adjust for that head movement while the pitcher is throwing.
Heck, I guess I should be glad, he has been so cold for the past month (from April 18-May 18: .196/.265/.272/.536) that if he continues this for another month or two, the Giants would be hard pressed to release someone as talented defensively as Schierholtz for someone like Rowand who at best is average defensively today and hits worse than Nate. Rowand could then go mountain biking for another team this off-season.
Romo Usage
Like others I've been concerned about Sergio Romo's usage, or lack thereof, lately. He clearly have great stats and works well against both righties and lefties. Yet he has hardly gotten many innings, with Bochy going regularly to Lopez, Ramirez, and even Affeldt, who is having another bad season. However, Brian Wilson's twisted ankle and walks brought comments that perhaps he's not fully recovered from his oblique strain that DLed him to start the season, so that gave me a thought about how this usage might make sense.
Speculation on my part, but my thought is this: what if Romo is respected enough by the Giants that they want him around to save Wilson, so to speak? Now that's not an absolute, as he got into a game the other day in the 8th and then they took him out, though I don't blame Bochy for swapping out to Lopez, he has been lights out versus LHP and the game was in play at that point, I like that Bochy is aggressive in going for the win at key points like that. Also, you have to give Romo some in-game pitching to keep him sharp.
But given that Wilson has not exactly been his 2010 self since the season started and, if you would recall another oblique injury that lingered (Lowry) all season, a sensible person would be prepared in some way for the possibility that Wilson might not be at his best any particular day and holding back Romo would make sense as a tactic in this scenario. Plus, who do you want pitching if Wilson has pitched and the game is tied and we could go into extra innings if we don't score in the bottom of the 9th (that's how Wilson got all those wins, pitching when the game was already tied or got tied with him pitching).
Again, just my speculation, but that is what makes sense to me right now given the idea that Wilson might not be 100% yet (or ever) this season.
Another thought I had previously but never got to write on it is that perhaps the Giants are showcasing Santiago Casilla (obviously the DL probably ruined this possibility), Ramon Ramirez, and Javier Lopez as potential mid-season trading pieces. The Padres picked up Cameron Maybin for two relievers, maybe the Giants can pick up a prospect in trading away a bullpen piece, what with Marc Kroon ready in the minors, Heath Hembree potentially ready by year end, a la Runzler in 2009, or 2012 at the latest. There is also Dan Otero, returned back to AA after an injury knocked out him out for a large portion of his 2010 season, but previously he was a closer on the rise up the system. But with how well they have been pitching, it would be hard to trade any of them now, I assume, but if there are arms that they think are ready for the majors, why not? So I thought I would throw this in.
But really, if Ramirez/Lopez can handle the 8th, why not save Romo to potentially save Wilson and/or pitch well for us into extra innings, giving us two innings (since he's getting more rest, he can pitch longer if necessary)?
A's Series
Yeah, not really up for a full exploration yet, but with Vogelsong vs. Cahill, Lincecum vs. Brett Anderson, Jonathan Sanchez vs. Gio Gonzalez, it could go either way, with an edge to the Giants because they are home.
Had the rainout not happened, the rotation would have been Linecum, Sanchez, Cain and I would think we would have won that series.
I like Vogelsong but Cahill has been lights out this season, hard to bet against him in that matchup, looks like win there. Lincecum is facing the "worse" starter of the three, and as long as the last start was just the occasional blip all good pitchers have, the Giants should win that one. Which leaves the last matchup and Sanchez has been good enough most of the season, and the last two games have seen great improvement, only 2 walks total with both games the most IP in a start this season, but Gio has been even better this season, so that is a push, and so is the series.
Good news for the Giants offense is that Andres Torres, Freddie Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Nate Schierholtz, and Cody Ross have been relatively hot, on and off, and if they can pull it all together at the same time, the offense will be more than good enough during this short two series homestand if the starting pitching holds up. I don't care for the A's (or rather, I don't care for their fans so I root to beat the A's) so I feel good that the Giants can pull out a series win, but it's no sure thing and a sweep either way would be improbable.
Go Giants!
Nate the Great
I see a lot of people saying that Bochy doesn't like Nate but I just don't see it. Looking at his usage pattern in the past, if anything, the Giants have tried multiple times to bend over backward and give him the starting RF job, but he would eventually hit his way out of the lineup, which I've attributed to 1) his penchant for injuring himself and 2) his penchant to continuing to play when he wasn't 100%.
In his first season, 2007, out of the Giants last 25 games, in September, he got into 24 of them, starting 15 of them, for a total of 73 PA/71 AB. He hit .282/.288/.394/.682, showing some potential. In 2008, he didn't get a call-up until September, but out of the Giants last 25 games, he got into 19 games, starting 18 of them, for a total of 81 PA/75 AB, hitting .320/.370/.493/.864, showing more of his potential.
In 2009, I think he was out of options, so he was with the team the whole season. Lewis, Rowand, Winn were the starters so he didn't get a lot of playing time, though still compiling 116 games, 285 AB. Lewis got a lot of rope, basically not hitting from mid-April to mid-June before Bochy mercifully sat him down, which opened starting time for Nate.
Nate starting getting regular starts on June 11th, and he earned his time over the next 3 weeks, starting in 16 of the next 21 games (playing in all), batting .406/.443/.609/1.052 with 3 HR in 64 AB. But as hot as he was then, he then cooled off over the next 3 weeks, still starting, 14 out of 19 games (playing in all), but hitting .242/.262/.339/.600 with 1 HR in 62 AB, until he injured himself and went on the DL. Once he returned, he continued to get starts, starting 15 out of 23 games (playing in 20), but hitting .200/.250/.383/.633, so he fell out of the rotation, only starting 6 of the next 26 games (though playing in 18), hitting .219/.286/.281/.567 with 0 HR in 32 AB.
In 2010, he lost the battle for RF in spring training, but Bowker soon hit his way off the team and organization. It also helped that Rowand got injured and opened playing time for Nate to show he belonged: over 3 weeks, he started 16 games out of 17 games, hitting .393/.469/.607/1.076 with 1 HR in 56 AB.
However, he made a diving catch in the first inning of the Phillies game in SF on April 27, 2010, which appears to not affect him immediately as he continued hitting well for the next 7 games, but he admitted this year that his right shoulder severely affected him the rest of the season, particularly after diving back into firstbase on May 19th. By then he had already been in a horrendous slump - .171/.209/.171/.380 in 11 starts out of 12 games - and the injury took him out of games for two days and out of the lineup for a week.
Once he returned, he started 3 of next 6 games (played in 5), hitting an anemic .091/.286/.091/.377, and after that, from June to the rest of the season, he didn't really get a chance to start again, which made people mad at Bochy and the Giants, but as Nate noted, he couldn't really hit well regularly as his shoulder did not heal because he came back too soon and it never ready got healthy until he stopped doing things over the off-season and worked at getting his shoulder healthy.
So this timeline is why I didn't really believe the rumors that Schierholtz was seriously on the trading block. Bochy has previously put him into the lineup and kept him there until his poor hitting forced the Giants hand. And clearly, to me at least, injuries have played a significant part of his cold periods and eventual benching. As Bochy said in an interview after the 2011 season began, it was a given to him that Nate was coming up with the Giants, never in doubt, though apparently Nate did not know that until nobody told him to pack up.
And that brings me to yesterday's game when I heard about Nate's dive. I instantly flashed back to all his other diving injuries which led soon to his benching. I really like Nate as a Giants and been rooting for him since he was clobbering pitchers in the Sally League for Hagerstown, and really loved him when I learned he was a Giants fan, like me, even though we grew up in the East Bay, plus I have college rooting interest as we both "played" baseball at Chabot College (I only took their summer program, thinking I would get into games, but there was maybe 2-3 people showing up, so we ended up spending the whole class feeding the pitching machine to each other; which was ultimately even better as I got to face high velocity pitches for the first time and got an appreciation for the hitters who claimed that they could see the stitches on the ball rotating; it was great just getting to hit over and over like that).
I think the Giants really like Nate's abilities, based on how they have given him the starting job, for the most part, a number of times and let him keep it for a while even while he struggled. But when Belt comes on the team, it will push one of the outfielders off the team, and it has appeared to me to be Nate all off-season so I was pretty sad thinking about that, as I still think he can be a good regular starter in the majors. An injury now won't help his case, though if he stinks it up really good, maybe no team will touch him and we can stash him in AAA until 2012. But his defense is so good that I wholeheartedly believe that another team will pick him up and stash him on their bench, an up and coming team looking for good pieces for their team in 2012.
So I'm rooting hard for Nate right now as this could be his last chance to stick with the team. He's been hitting very well and if he can continue hitting like this into mid-season, at least to July, that increases the chances that the Giants might decide that the best thing to do would be to DFA Aaron Rowand and eat his contract. He does not even have to hit for that much to be very valuable to the team given how good his RF defense is.
Our 2012 OF, believe it or not, is actually not that certain. Pat Burrell and Cody Ross are both free agents, and Andres Torres, as much as I believe in his new batting mechanics and abilities to sting the ball, will still be 34 years old, an age when players abilities often fail them and the end is nye. So keeping a young guy with potential like Nate would behoove the Giants, I believe.
And then there is Rowand, whose new batting stance is about the weirdest I've ever see a professional hitter use, and I recall Joe Morgan's elbow flap, seen Mel Ott's leg lift, heck, I would even rate it weirder than Gary Brown's jittery batting stance in college. It looks like he is bending backwards unnaturally then suddenly snaps to the proper normal batting stance once the pitcher starts throwing. I don't see how he can keep his eye on the ball while his head is moving like that. Just seems to add another layer of difficulty on his eyes and brains needing to adjust for that head movement while the pitcher is throwing.
Heck, I guess I should be glad, he has been so cold for the past month (from April 18-May 18: .196/.265/.272/.536) that if he continues this for another month or two, the Giants would be hard pressed to release someone as talented defensively as Schierholtz for someone like Rowand who at best is average defensively today and hits worse than Nate. Rowand could then go mountain biking for another team this off-season.
Romo Usage
Like others I've been concerned about Sergio Romo's usage, or lack thereof, lately. He clearly have great stats and works well against both righties and lefties. Yet he has hardly gotten many innings, with Bochy going regularly to Lopez, Ramirez, and even Affeldt, who is having another bad season. However, Brian Wilson's twisted ankle and walks brought comments that perhaps he's not fully recovered from his oblique strain that DLed him to start the season, so that gave me a thought about how this usage might make sense.
Speculation on my part, but my thought is this: what if Romo is respected enough by the Giants that they want him around to save Wilson, so to speak? Now that's not an absolute, as he got into a game the other day in the 8th and then they took him out, though I don't blame Bochy for swapping out to Lopez, he has been lights out versus LHP and the game was in play at that point, I like that Bochy is aggressive in going for the win at key points like that. Also, you have to give Romo some in-game pitching to keep him sharp.
But given that Wilson has not exactly been his 2010 self since the season started and, if you would recall another oblique injury that lingered (Lowry) all season, a sensible person would be prepared in some way for the possibility that Wilson might not be at his best any particular day and holding back Romo would make sense as a tactic in this scenario. Plus, who do you want pitching if Wilson has pitched and the game is tied and we could go into extra innings if we don't score in the bottom of the 9th (that's how Wilson got all those wins, pitching when the game was already tied or got tied with him pitching).
Again, just my speculation, but that is what makes sense to me right now given the idea that Wilson might not be 100% yet (or ever) this season.
Another thought I had previously but never got to write on it is that perhaps the Giants are showcasing Santiago Casilla (obviously the DL probably ruined this possibility), Ramon Ramirez, and Javier Lopez as potential mid-season trading pieces. The Padres picked up Cameron Maybin for two relievers, maybe the Giants can pick up a prospect in trading away a bullpen piece, what with Marc Kroon ready in the minors, Heath Hembree potentially ready by year end, a la Runzler in 2009, or 2012 at the latest. There is also Dan Otero, returned back to AA after an injury knocked out him out for a large portion of his 2010 season, but previously he was a closer on the rise up the system. But with how well they have been pitching, it would be hard to trade any of them now, I assume, but if there are arms that they think are ready for the majors, why not? So I thought I would throw this in.
But really, if Ramirez/Lopez can handle the 8th, why not save Romo to potentially save Wilson and/or pitch well for us into extra innings, giving us two innings (since he's getting more rest, he can pitch longer if necessary)?
A's Series
Yeah, not really up for a full exploration yet, but with Vogelsong vs. Cahill, Lincecum vs. Brett Anderson, Jonathan Sanchez vs. Gio Gonzalez, it could go either way, with an edge to the Giants because they are home.
Had the rainout not happened, the rotation would have been Linecum, Sanchez, Cain and I would think we would have won that series.
I like Vogelsong but Cahill has been lights out this season, hard to bet against him in that matchup, looks like win there. Lincecum is facing the "worse" starter of the three, and as long as the last start was just the occasional blip all good pitchers have, the Giants should win that one. Which leaves the last matchup and Sanchez has been good enough most of the season, and the last two games have seen great improvement, only 2 walks total with both games the most IP in a start this season, but Gio has been even better this season, so that is a push, and so is the series.
Good news for the Giants offense is that Andres Torres, Freddie Sanchez, Aubrey Huff, Buster Posey, Nate Schierholtz, and Cody Ross have been relatively hot, on and off, and if they can pull it all together at the same time, the offense will be more than good enough during this short two series homestand if the starting pitching holds up. I don't care for the A's (or rather, I don't care for their fans so I root to beat the A's) so I feel good that the Giants can pull out a series win, but it's no sure thing and a sweep either way would be improbable.
Go Giants!
Friday, May 21, 2010
Your 2010 Giants are 22-18: Licking Wounds Again, But in O-Town; Gamer-tude?
You hate to lose games like that, but when the home umpire appears to be drunk or high - there is no other explanation for what the announcers reported, a moving, ever-changing strike zone - sometimes you end with up with the sharp end of the stick in the eye. It happens, move on, act like you've lived a little, as Gary Radnich likes to say.
The offense too has been showing signs of this too this season. Beating good pitchers like Oswalt, Halladay, Myers. Scoring a lot of runs too. The Giants have scored at least 4 runs 24 times this season, 5 or more runs 20 times. And the Giants were 66-15 when they scored at least 4 runs last season, 54-8 when they score 5 or more runs. Their pitching and fielding don't need that many runs to win at a great rate, even at 3 runs they were 10-10 last season.
But the stats are ugly, the Giants are 18-6 outside of the NL West, 4-12 playing our NL West rivals. We are singlehandedly keeping them in the race for the pennant, even playing even with them would put them squarely behind us instead of third. Still, we are only 1.5 games behind so it's not like it's the end of the world, unlike all the pitchforks and lynch mobs that permeates most Giants boards.
Now the Giants get to return home, but play on the road: yes, it is time for interleague play against the A's. The A's are also reeling from a 2-game sweep too, so one team is going to get well at the expense of the other today. The A's have been having their problems, after a nice start, and are now 4 games back, hardly anything to worry about this early in the season, but still it will take a while to get back to the top. I wonder if Giants fans will outnumber the A's at their park, like they did in San Diego the other day, the A's attendance has been poor and so there will be a lot of seats available for Giants fans to buy and attend.
Game 1: Trevor Cahill vs. Zito
Part of the A's young core of pitchers, Cahill is only 22 YO, and doing pretty well, though not a league leader yet. He has progressed this season, but his K/9 is absolutely horrible, there have rarely been any pitchers who can survive in the majors with a sub-5 K/9 (4.5 last season, 4.0 this season). He has typically pitched better at home, but only has one start at home so far, albeit a shutout, because it appears he missed the early part of the season as he only has 4 starts so far and most have around 9.
Zito has done poorly against the A's since moving to the Giants, so the outcome of this game will hinge greatly on whether the new, improved Zito 2010 shows up or his prior self. Pressure situations like this often cause pitchers to amp up and lose their command of pitches, though the pressure is usually all internal, because it's his old team. He says he's fine, that it is old now, as the players he knew are gone and the treatment he got from A's fans when he did return, plus it's been so many years now. I think the new Zito shows up, but Cahill's pretty good at home usually so it will be a tight battle, though I lean towards Cahill since he's done well at home, he's a pitcher (not a fireballer) and the Giants seem to flail against the non-fastballs.
Game 2: Gio Gonzalez vs. Cainer
I guess the Giants lucked out with the A's, missing the starters with the best ERAs, as Gio Gonzalez has the best ERA of the three facing the Giants and he has the fourth best ERA out of the starters who has at least 4 starts so far. Injury has taken away two, and the Giants miss facing Mr. Perfect Game, Dallas Braden.
The oft-travelled Gonzalez, who has had two different stints with White Sox, sandwiched by a year with the Phillies, is still only 24 YO for this season. He has improved each season, in terms of ERA, but appears to be lucking out with his BABIP this season plus he has suffered a sharp drop in his K/9, which while still good at 7.9, is not in the 9.0+ range it was before. Now some players ratchet back that to get better command, but his walk rate, while down, isn't good yet (still over 4 BB/9) and his K/BB ratio is worse than last season.
He is slightly better at home this season, but he was worse before, which is odd because their park is a pitcher's park. Cain, on the other hand, has improved his road numbers the past couple of seasons to be almost even with his home numbers, so this should be a good game, a tight battle as well. What could be the tipping point is that he's a lefty and the Giants have been vulnerable to them, though they handled Cole Hamels fine, and that he has made adjustments and is pitching a bit better in May in terms of peripherals, despite his poorer ERA.
Game 3: Ben Sheets vs. Sanchez
The A's ten million dollar man has not been earning his pay: 5.66 ERA, striking out less, walking more, giving up more homers and hits. The good news on him, from the A's perspective, is that his BABIP is high, .331. And, he's been pitching very well at home, he's mainly been hammered on the road. However, he was beat upon by the lowly Mariners in his last home start, though he started looking like the Sheets of old in his prior two starts where he got 8 K's each. He did miss all of last season, so a transition period, even with spring training, is probably to be expected. Was his last start just a bump on the road to returning to his dominant old self? Possibly.
Dirty has had a better month in terms of peripherals but a regression to the mean on homers has costed him in terms of ERA, doubling his April results, basically. He has pitched well in the Coliseum before, and after two horrible starts when he was suffering from a cold, he has pitched well in sabermetric terms. This should be another battle.
Giants Thoughts
This series seem like a toss-up. Each are pretty evenly matched, so the edge probably belongs to the home team, the A's. This should be another test of the Giants resolve, of their gamer-tude. Yesterday was a horrible game. Will that linger into this first game and result in a bad loss, which would set up a series loss? Or will they pick themselves off the ground and battle again?
Gamer-Tude
Given that the Giants have been doing well this season and the A's have not, I'm leaning towards a series win for the Giants. I think we are seeing a new Zito, he's been showing gamer-tude all season. Cain started showing Gamer-Tude last season. And Sanchez, I think, is getting there.
The offense too has been showing signs of this too this season. Beating good pitchers like Oswalt, Halladay, Myers. Scoring a lot of runs too. The Giants have scored at least 4 runs 24 times this season, 5 or more runs 20 times. And the Giants were 66-15 when they scored at least 4 runs last season, 54-8 when they score 5 or more runs. Their pitching and fielding don't need that many runs to win at a great rate, even at 3 runs they were 10-10 last season.
So far this season, the offense is 24-16 in terms of scoring at least 4 runs in the game. The pitching and fielding are 27-13. If we removed Wellemeyer's starts: 24-8.
Well, A-Maybe We'll Go Mit Hacker
Hank Schulman had a scoop that the Giants are close to removing Wellemeyer from the rotation (not sure if he would even stay as long-reliever) and are considering Eric Hacker, a free agent pickup who has been doing great in AAA. At only 27 YO, he's not old enough to think that age and experience is why he's dominating down there - 7-1, 2.20 ERA, 45 IP, 38 K, 12 BB - and his MLE translates to an ERA of around 3.00, so he's doing very well so far.
He once was a Yankee's farmhand and was with both the Yankees and Pirates last season (acquired by trade). He a quick call up with the Pirates last season, doing nothing much, and I guess he became a 6 year minor league free agent and signed with the Giants over the off-season. Appears to be a ground-ball type pitcher from his minor league stats. Was never one to strike out a lot, did his job by avoiding walks and flyballs.
Bumgarner has not been ruled out, but I have to think that the Giants would rather keep him in the minors to get his mechanics straight. While good since figuring out his mechanical problem, and great since adding a cutter two starts ago, I would rather he stay in the minors and get his mechanics going good before we call him up.
Meanwhile, that allows us to try out Hacker, and if he fails, Pucetas, but if either does well, that gives us another trading chip or at least a qualified backup in the minors should one of our starters should go down for whatever reason.
The main problem with Hacker is that he's not on our 40 man roster and we have no space on it anymore after Denny Bautista was called up (I believe he took Lewis' spot). One alternative, I believe, which I think would be most likely, is moving Burriss to the 60-day DL, which would allow us to add a player to the 40 man. DeRosa getting wrist surgery would also put him him on the 60-day DL. Of course, depending on how they feel about Wellemeyer, they could possibly DFA him if they decided that this was all they wanted from him. Alex Hinshaw is another possibility, he hasn't done well in AAA this season, and I read somewhere that he was on the bubble regarding the 40-man in previous discussions about who to drop. I view this as unlikely since they could move Burriss, but you never know when they have decided they had enough, like when they let go of Billy Sadler.
Pucetas is already on the 40 man so promoting him would not require a move. But since the scuttlebutt is regarding Hacker, they must have thought through what they might have to do to get him on the roster before considering him so seriously.
The main problem with Hacker is that he's not on our 40 man roster and we have no space on it anymore after Denny Bautista was called up (I believe he took Lewis' spot). One alternative, I believe, which I think would be most likely, is moving Burriss to the 60-day DL, which would allow us to add a player to the 40 man. DeRosa getting wrist surgery would also put him him on the 60-day DL. Of course, depending on how they feel about Wellemeyer, they could possibly DFA him if they decided that this was all they wanted from him. Alex Hinshaw is another possibility, he hasn't done well in AAA this season, and I read somewhere that he was on the bubble regarding the 40-man in previous discussions about who to drop. I view this as unlikely since they could move Burriss, but you never know when they have decided they had enough, like when they let go of Billy Sadler.
Pucetas is already on the 40 man so promoting him would not require a move. But since the scuttlebutt is regarding Hacker, they must have thought through what they might have to do to get him on the roster before considering him so seriously.
Six-Man Rotation
Plus, as I've been advocating in my comments recently at other sites (and maybe here), I think the Giants should seriously consider a 6-man rotation in August, particularly if we are leading the division by a good margin, but even if they are not. There are 28 games in the 31 days of August, only 3 days of rest. And there are 17 games in 17 days after the All-Star break, so perhaps they should consider doing that after the All-Star break, that's only 3 days of rest in those roughly 6-7 weeks (plus they play on Sept. 1st as well). A 6 man rotation would simulate giving the starters an extra day of rest that they were getting in April when there is a day off and you are going with a 5 man rotation.
I wouldn't consider this except that the Giants have a Madison Bumgarner in the minors, who should do well once he gets up to the majors. If we were adding two mediocre starters to the rotation, then that would just hurt our chances of making the playoffs. But adding Bumgarner and if he works out as well as Cain did when he first came up (and as well as Bumgarner did briefly last September), if anything, that would improve the rotation overall because the 6th starter, whether Hacker, Pucetas, Wellemeyer, or even Sosa or whoever (sign Pedro or Smoltz?), would get less starts overall than a 5th starter for another team would get. Plus, this would shift our rotation against other teams so that our top pitchers will regularly face the other team's poorer starters in the back of their rotation, whereas most of our starters can hold their own against the other team's ace or #2.
That would reduce the load on our top starters (Lincecum, Zito, Cain) by 3 starts. With 78 games after the All-Star Break, they would get 16 starts, while Sanchez and #5 would get 15 starts. With 6 starters, they all get 13 starts, saving 20-25 innings off their arms, while also giving Bumgarner a chance to start in the majors and the #6 starter a chance to show something, whether new prospect or old vet free agent. That would reduce the load on Lincecum's and Cain's arms from 220+ IP to around 200 IP.
This will keep our young starters' arms fresher for the playoffs plus would reduce the stress on their arms overall for the season so that it would not affect their performance as much in 2011. Getting into the playoffs can add a lot of innings to the pitcher's seasonal total. Sabathia had 5 extra starts and 36.1 IP added. Krukow has noted before that it puts a strain on a pitcher's arm to jump more than 25 IP from one season to the next, that such a jump could cause performance problems the following season.
Using a 6-man rotation would reduce the projected IP load on both Lincecum and Cain to within 25 IP of last season's totals, I believe. In addition, it would give valuable experience to Bumgarner. Plus, give opportunities to start to other prospects or to a vet looking for another ring and another payday in 2011. This works on a lot of different dimensions, and if Bochy went with the pitching batting 8th lineup yesterday, going with a 6-man rotation would be right up that alley.
AL Advantage: DH
Our lineup against Oakland should be adequate this season, unlike season's past. AL teams have an advantage over NL teams in that they have a full-time DH who is a good hitter (last season, third best hitting line in AL), whereas most NL teams have bench players who are not as good. With Bowker, Downs, and Ishikawa on the bench, players who are capable of doing OK in the DH spot, I think we should be OK, though Bowker is probably starting since Schierholtz is day-to-day with a bad shoulder.
Training Staff Again
Maybe it is just a fan's mis-perception, but the Giants seem to suffer from so many physical maladies that linger until they finally sit down and maybe even DL. The latest is Nate Schierholtz, who suffered a shoulder injury on that day against the Phillies when he gunned down two runners at 2B. He has been in a horrible slump since then, but apparently it has been that shoulder, which has gotten worse since then, and now he's finally sitting and is day-to-day. The DL was not mentioned, but I have to assume it's a possibility if it has gotten worse after two weeks and in any case, he needs a least a couple of more days off.
Presumably, with Torres already starting and Bowker hitting that homer last night, while Nate is out, Torres will play RF and Bowker probably will platoon with Downs in LF (guessing, once Franchez returned, Bochy said that Downs would not be forgotten, that he would see time at 3B and LF). Cahill and Sheets are RHP while Gio is a LHP. I guess that means Ishikawa could get the call to DH the whole series, or maybe get to start while Huff is the DH, to give him some rest, plus he's the pro at DH-ing.
Friday, April 02, 2010
How I Stopped Worrying About the Budget: the Intersection of the Internet and the A's
El Lefty Malo has been writing (latest here) about the payroll problem that has been building up with all the extensions signed over the past week plus the existing contracts and expected raises owed to arbitration eligible players over the next few years, including in particular Lincecum and Sandoval, as well as Sanchez. These are valid concerns but I'm not as up in arms as he is for a couple of big reasons.
One reason is the MLB Alternative Media (or MLB AM) organization. Equally owned by all 30 teams, it has been an unadulterated success, beyond their wildest dreams. Expected to take a four years to repay the costs of creating it, it covered the costs in less than two and has been delivering $3-5M to each team (The Biz of Baseball had that covered here, with an in-depth look here).
It has been my hope that MLBAM will the linchpin towards reducing the disparity in revenues between the Yankees and the rest of the majors. Their advantage has come from their local broadcast rights, but as everything is moving to the Internet, it is my hope that MLBAM will eventually steal away most of the viewers of Yankees broadcast, thus sharing all those revenues with every team (since every team gets 1/30th). Don't know if there is a loophole somewhere or what, but given the simple view of this situation, MLBAM appears to be the trojan horse that brings down the Yankee's revenue advantage over all other teams. That could be why the Yankees got their new stadium built, to make up for potential future revenue shortfalls.
In addition, MLBAM has been much more successful than any other sport's on-line venture, and thus they have been handling the on-line ventures for other sports like golf (they run tigerwoods.com and used to run MLS's operations) and recently won a contract to handle ESPN's on-line technology infrastructure and customer support. They are a leader in streaming live video. Contracts like this plus expansion into other products, like the Bloomberg baseball stats analytics service, plus other gaming products, should contribute further growth.
There is also talk about an IPO, valuing the company at over $2B, which would roughly value each team's share at over $70M. These are all ways the Giants can generated additional cash to help pay for re-signing players.
San Jose A's
The A's are hoping to move down to San Jose, but the rights belong to the Giants right now. Similar to how the Orioles were compensated by the move of the Expos to Washington D.C., a nearby location in the area controlled by the Orioles, I have believed that the Giants and A's were on a course towards such a resolution. Hence the hard line by the Giants management since this came up, yet the rumors persisted until the A's requested the rights. Mark Purdy covers a lot of the issues in his recent column. Biz of Baseball also covered it, though not as biz as I would have liked, there was no clear final dollar amount.
Frankly, South Bay Giants fans are not going to change their allegiance just because the A's are close, though they might go there to get their fill of MLB baseball. Those going to games will still go. Corporate season ticket buyers will probably buy down there, but as long as the Giants have had a winning product, they have always been able to draw the fans into the park, they have always opened up their wallets to get their fix.
Now we are heading into the stretch. Bud Selig is reportedly considering the proposition - FYI, he and the A's owner were former COLLEGE ROOMMATES and long-time old buddies - and will report on this soon. He brokered/ordered the concessions made to the Orioles to allow the Washington Nationals to come into existence, and I expect that to happen again in this situation. And I expect the price tag to be pretty high, at least $20M, if not more (the Orioles got all sorts of cash and income, plus guarantees, which I assume the Giants will want on their 3M attendance - roughly - up to now, plus majority ownership of a sports network, which won't work for the Giants, so I expect some sort of cash buyout, over time).
Other Sources of Cash to Pay for Contracts
There are a number of other ways for the Giants to generate money for increases in their payroll. First, they own a percentage of the Bay Area sports network that was set up by Comcast. That could be sold and generate money to pay for players. Second, their mortgage ends in 2017 if I remember right. That is $20M in additional money right there, every year. They could use that to fund borrowing additional money now to help pay for player salaries today, and with the low interest rates, would not result in much discounting in terms of net present value. Third, they had been funding $5M per year in recent years to cover Barry Bonds's deferred payments, but it should be over by this year or next. That will be $5M more available.
Lastly, there is the old fashion and time proven way to get more cash: find more investors to pony up more money into the Giants. Neukom had been buying out other owners over time to get to his position, he has a lot of Silicon Valley and Redmond connections and networks that he should be able to tap into to find people willing to invest in the Giants.
BAM! MLBAM!
One reason is the MLB Alternative Media (or MLB AM) organization. Equally owned by all 30 teams, it has been an unadulterated success, beyond their wildest dreams. Expected to take a four years to repay the costs of creating it, it covered the costs in less than two and has been delivering $3-5M to each team (The Biz of Baseball had that covered here, with an in-depth look here).
It has been my hope that MLBAM will the linchpin towards reducing the disparity in revenues between the Yankees and the rest of the majors. Their advantage has come from their local broadcast rights, but as everything is moving to the Internet, it is my hope that MLBAM will eventually steal away most of the viewers of Yankees broadcast, thus sharing all those revenues with every team (since every team gets 1/30th). Don't know if there is a loophole somewhere or what, but given the simple view of this situation, MLBAM appears to be the trojan horse that brings down the Yankee's revenue advantage over all other teams. That could be why the Yankees got their new stadium built, to make up for potential future revenue shortfalls.
In addition, MLBAM has been much more successful than any other sport's on-line venture, and thus they have been handling the on-line ventures for other sports like golf (they run tigerwoods.com and used to run MLS's operations) and recently won a contract to handle ESPN's on-line technology infrastructure and customer support. They are a leader in streaming live video. Contracts like this plus expansion into other products, like the Bloomberg baseball stats analytics service, plus other gaming products, should contribute further growth.
There is also talk about an IPO, valuing the company at over $2B, which would roughly value each team's share at over $70M. These are all ways the Giants can generated additional cash to help pay for re-signing players.
San Jose A's
The A's are hoping to move down to San Jose, but the rights belong to the Giants right now. Similar to how the Orioles were compensated by the move of the Expos to Washington D.C., a nearby location in the area controlled by the Orioles, I have believed that the Giants and A's were on a course towards such a resolution. Hence the hard line by the Giants management since this came up, yet the rumors persisted until the A's requested the rights. Mark Purdy covers a lot of the issues in his recent column. Biz of Baseball also covered it, though not as biz as I would have liked, there was no clear final dollar amount.
Frankly, South Bay Giants fans are not going to change their allegiance just because the A's are close, though they might go there to get their fill of MLB baseball. Those going to games will still go. Corporate season ticket buyers will probably buy down there, but as long as the Giants have had a winning product, they have always been able to draw the fans into the park, they have always opened up their wallets to get their fix.
Now we are heading into the stretch. Bud Selig is reportedly considering the proposition - FYI, he and the A's owner were former COLLEGE ROOMMATES and long-time old buddies - and will report on this soon. He brokered/ordered the concessions made to the Orioles to allow the Washington Nationals to come into existence, and I expect that to happen again in this situation. And I expect the price tag to be pretty high, at least $20M, if not more (the Orioles got all sorts of cash and income, plus guarantees, which I assume the Giants will want on their 3M attendance - roughly - up to now, plus majority ownership of a sports network, which won't work for the Giants, so I expect some sort of cash buyout, over time).
Other Sources of Cash to Pay for Contracts
There are a number of other ways for the Giants to generate money for increases in their payroll. First, they own a percentage of the Bay Area sports network that was set up by Comcast. That could be sold and generate money to pay for players. Second, their mortgage ends in 2017 if I remember right. That is $20M in additional money right there, every year. They could use that to fund borrowing additional money now to help pay for player salaries today, and with the low interest rates, would not result in much discounting in terms of net present value. Third, they had been funding $5M per year in recent years to cover Barry Bonds's deferred payments, but it should be over by this year or next. That will be $5M more available.
Lastly, there is the old fashion and time proven way to get more cash: find more investors to pony up more money into the Giants. Neukom had been buying out other owners over time to get to his position, he has a lot of Silicon Valley and Redmond connections and networks that he should be able to tap into to find people willing to invest in the Giants.
Plus, he's not getting younger - he was older than Magowan when Magowan stated he was stepping down to spend more time with his grandchildren - and could bring in the next owner of the Giants. And Larry Ellison is a local billionaires with billions of dollars burning a hole in his pocket, and with his win in America's Cup, wouldn't the Giants be a great place to bring his sports obsession to, particularly with our history of no World Series championships in SF? He has reported kick the tires on acquiring the 49er's, and when rebuffed, looked into the LA football expansion possibility, and recently was noted as interested when Chris Cohan said that he's open to selling the Warriors (particularly since the IRS said there was mistakes made regarding his sale of his family's cable company that funded his purchase of the Warriors, and thus he owns millions to the IRS now).
And I've been beating the drums for Larry Ellison's purchase of the Giants since Sabean/Magowan noted that they basically passed up looking into getting Vladimir Guerrero because of finances, back when I was fanatical and not obsessed. :^) We need someone with deep pockets for the Giants to get our championship. The Angel's were helped by their billionaire owner opening up his pockets and the Giants could use similar deep pockets, particularly those as deep as Ellison.
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