Bochy Getting Some Love in the Media

As I've been commenting in my blog, there has been a number of articles extolling the greatness that is Bruce Bochy.  Of course, I approve.

There was a great article by Jonah Keri about how Bochy is one of the best managers in baseball history on Grantland and I wanted to share it.  But if you know me by now, I'm never too happy about baseball generalists writing about the Giants because they always get something wrong that I don't agree with.  However, for the most part, Keri wrote a pretty clean article and very complimentary about Bochy, which I have been since late in the 2010 season when he started changing his tactics and strategies, sitting down low performing veteran starters in place of other players, culminating with the shocking move to leave Zito off the playoff roster, including the World Series roster.

ogc thoughts

Closer Leverage

Keri makes the great point about the bullpen.  This section was very good overall.  I think he's a saber, so I'm surprised he does not note that one of the things sabers want managers to do is use your best pitchers when it counts, not just as a monkey assigned to get the last three outs, whether it's a tight one-run lead or a safe four-run lead.   But he did say it:  "It’s about using your best players in the biggest spots. "

I'll end by quoting Keri:

Bochy is intellectually flexible enough to recognize important moments as they come and adjust his moves accordingly. In the playoffs especially, that’s a really big deal.

Bochy and the Vets

This section has the information I've been looking for, for a while now, as I had read it somewhere, started quoting it, but then couldn't find it when someone asked.  Chris Jaffe took raw team analysis data and grouped it into managerial and examined various aspects of a manager, for his book.  What he found was that under Bochy, veteran hitters out-hit expectations, based on prior and next season stats, adding 270 runs over a 12 year period (basically his years managing the Padres).   That's roughly 2-3 wins per year, just from that, and doesn't include what Huff and Burrell did in 2010, Pagan after he joined us, Scutaro in 2012, or even Morse this season.

So that means Bochy takes average teams and just from working with veteran hitters, make them 83-84 win teams.  And I think this applies to the next section as well.

#FreeBelt Was A Concept That Got Bochy Wrong

I am so tired of this meme that mean Bruce Bochy don't understand young players.  And I'm surprised that Keri didn't make the connection that he did not trust the young players in San Diego but trusted the young players in San Francisco (maybe it's the quality of talent coming to the majors?).

Bochy wasn't loyal to Huff, costing Belt playing time.  Any Giants fan of that time should remember that the Giants CHOSE to place Belt on the roster, to see how he handles things, pushing Huff to Left Field (which ultimately drove him crazy, but that's another story).  If that is considered being loyal, then I don't see it.  If the vet is favored, wouldn't Belt have been moved to LF, like how the A's moved Mark McGwire to 3B because they liked that other guy better at 1B?

In fact, the Giants liked Belt so much that they kept him on the MLB roster even though he had a lot to learn, culminating in his famous learning of how to properly hold the bat in order to release his power, TWO years later, because Belt was hesitant to follow all of Meulen's recommendations.  Only once he embraced ALL of the changes did he start hitting like the player everyone thought he was.  But Bochy and the Giants get blamed for that delay in development when it was Belt who was fighting all the changes, like a wild stallion (giraffe?).

And think of this another way:  if Bochy understands veteran hitters enough that they improve greatly under his guidance, perhaps he is a pretty good judge of what a good hitter is, and how to fix him, and that applies whether the player is old or young.  So if a lot of the Padres top prospects fizzled under him, perhaps that was more a function of the GM not delivering a lot of talent to him.  Remember, those were the brainiacs who drafted Matt Bush with the #1 pick overall, apparently because the Twins picking Mauer worked out so well, plus I think he agreed to a lower bonus (if I recall correctly).  Because that's not my experience with Bochy at the helm of the Giants.

There are many instances of this, beyond just Belt.  When Freddy Lewis was doing well, Bochy chose to keep Roberts on the bench and keep Lewis starting, even though Roberts was now healthy.  He often kept Schierholtz in the lineup even though he was super cold, until he could wait no longer (it was go time, last two months).  And of course, a lot of young guys have come up and almost immediately took starting/important jobs:  Cain, Lowry, Lincecum, Sandoval, Romo, Posey, Bumgarner, Belt (if not for his DL injuries, he probably would not have seen much more time in the minors after he was brought up).

For more recent examples, how about Panik, Susac, Duffy, and Strickland?  In particular, Bochy has put both Susac and Duffy into extreme pressure situations during the playoffs, when he could have gone to Arias instead.  Instead, he has hardly been used, Duffy has been used a lot more than he has.  And Strickland has been used in key situations as well, and he has had his ups and See You Laters! (four homers)  A guy unfriendly with young players would not have done that.

He has run the Giants mostly as a meritocracy, and if you falter, he don't make it about the player being stupid, old, or lousy, he keeps their confidence up (just see any interview where he talks about a struggling player) by saying that he believes in the guy but that the player is just out of it, for whatever reason, and he needs to get production by using other guys, with the promise to return to the player once he and the coaches fix his problems.

Beating Pythagorean

The next section covered his numbers as manager, covering how his teams did or didn't beat Pythagorean expectations.  So given the veteran hitters adding value which would show up in Pythagorean (83-84 wins), there is something extra that managers adds on top of that which Pythogorean does not measure.

Now the rubric here is that the average manager would just regress to the mean of 0 for his career.  But this table shows that over the 20 years of managing Bochy has done, he is currently at 26 extra wins for his career.   That works out to 1.3 extra wins average for his managing career.  That puts us now up to 85 wins, assuming he starts with an average team, just from his managerial influence, an 81-81 team is on average an 85-77 team.

Coincidentally enough, my study on one-run wins found that he adds 4 wins per season on average in terms of beating the rule of manager regress to mean of .500 in one-run games, which is the same number of extra wins.  Of course, if the team is a near playoff caliber team (mid-80's), adding 4 wins would put the team into the playoffs, either as wild card or divisional winner.  And Natch, a good playoff team becomes a great one, at least during the season.

Gathering all the datapoints, just from eyeballing the data, one can see that there is some correlation involved between his bullpen value add, his Pythagorean out performance, and his one-run record out performance, but there are clearly years where they are polar opposites, so clearly not the best correlation.

Overall

Obviously a very complimentary article about Bochy, and makes a pretty good case for Bochy being one of the best managers around and ever.

Giants Fan's 2014 Playoff Rooting Interests

Of course, the Giants are it as long as they are in it, but what about the other teams (and I'll include clubs no longer in the chase, since I'm late with this).

Your 2014 Giants: Sandoval Free Agency Thoughts

Some well-known media person wrote that the Giants plans were to 1) offer Pablo a QO, 2) expect for him to reject it, and 3) offer a 3 year offer to Sandoval, with 4 years a "stretch".

Someone thought that three years was a significant point.   I also see a lot of people thinking that Sandoval is going to get a big contract and use Shin-Soo Choo as a good comparison, as apparently he has been injured a lot too.

ogc thoughts

I know Shin-Soo Choo and Sandoval is no Choo

Shin-Soo Choo is a way different situation than Sandoval.  I see this comparison all the time and don't understand why.

First of all, in four of the five years leading up to free agency, Choo had at least 646 PA in the season and over 150 games 3 of 5.  So he might be injured often, but he sure seems to play through it most of the time.  Sandoval, at the moment, has zero seasons with at least 646 PA in his career and over 150 games 2 of 5.  Sandoval might reach 646 this year, but unlikely unless the offense goes crazy.

Second of all, Choo in those five seasons hit .288/.392/.459/.851 with 87 HR.  Sandoval, for comparative purposes, in his five seasons leading into free agency is hitting .285/.338/.446/.784 with 78 HR.  More importantly, Sandoval hasn't even reached .800 OPS in four of the last five seasons and, worse, not at all in the last three seasons.  Choo had been over .800 in four of the last five, and .883 and above in three of the last five.

Third of all, research by Fangraphs shows that outfielders get paid a lot more than infielders do, significantly so.  If you look at the top outfielder contracts and compare it with the top 3B contracts, like Zimmerman and Wright, you can see the dichotomy.  On top of that, both Zimmernan and Wright had great batting lines often and overall.  Sandoval only had two good seasons, last time in 2011.  Hence Sandoval asking for Pence's numbers just don't make sense given the realities of the marketplace.

Three Years is No News
  
And this 3 year offer is not really any news at all.  Observant Giants fans know that the Giants offered a 3 year, $42M contract to Sandoval in the pre-season.  This is the one his agent spat on publicly and gave the quote that they want to start the bidding at Pence's contract and hope to get to 9-figures.  So it figures that the Giants will continue to offer that amount, that is where they last left off at.

Value Is Not There

The fact is, Sandoval hasn't been a good hitter since 2011.  His ups and downs, for whatever reasons, whether injuries, family issues, or whatever, just seem to happen and that is the package any team signing him would be getting.  Teams have been stupid with their contracts, but generally they have had good reasons to be stupid.  If Sandoval had hit 900 OPS in 2014 like he did in 2011, he probably could find at least one stupid team.  But he didn't, having another middling season.

And 2011 was the last year he had at least 20 HR, a mark he has only done twice in his career.   Teams have gotten stupid signing up players who has a lot of power, and this is his first season to beat 15 homers since 2011, so no, that's not a power hitter's profile.  His 3-HR game in the World Series is looking more like Elster's 3-HR game at AT&T, an outlier, not a norm.

So there is no reason to think that he's going to get a bigger contract than what Zimmerman got with the Nats or Wright got with the Mets.  They were much better and more healthier players than Sandoval plus they hit for a lot better batting line.  The Giants offer was totally in line with what he had produced up to this season, and there is no reason for them to go much more above that.  In fact, with how poorly he has hit this season, the 3 year, $42M contract looks like it might be overpaying now.  He plays nice defense, but nothing like he did in 2011, so his value is reliant on hit hitting, which has been up and down but mostly down the past three seasons.

How I See It

If Sandoval's agent is stupid enough to continue to ask for Pence-sized contract, I think that Sandoval will end up not signing until sometime in Jan/Feb before spring training, and probably will end up signing with the Giants for the QO (even after he rejected it, the Giants don't seem to like to take advantage of players in that situation and would still leave it on the table).

Who knows, maybe he finally gets it and take the Giants 3 year offer.  As I noted in the pre-season, I can see the deal going as high as $15M per year, or $45M, or roughly 2.5 to 3.0 WAR per season production, which is about what he has done the past three seasons (roughly just under 3).  So that would make it a "win" for his agent (by getting more than originally offered) while nowhere close to what he was asking for.

My thoughts on Hembree, BABIP usage in Minors

This was a comment in response to a statement a while back about Hembree's BABIP "regressing to the mean" since it was higher than .300

ogc thoughts

The problem with using BABIP for minor league pitchers is that not all pitchers figure out the skill of hewing to the BABIP mean of .300 in the majors.  This gets especially iffy then for relievers where it is all SSS and BABIP isn't all that accurate.   So Hembree bad BABIP does not necessarily mean that there will be a regression to the mean.

There is a great interview with Mike Fast of the Astros where he talked about learning this while working inside (he was a well known sabermetrician prior to joining the Astros, for those who didn't know).   He noted that DIPS don't quite apply in the minors, that there are pitchers who don't learn the fine art of keeping BABIP to the mean .300 that most MLB pitchers do learn.  Search for interview with Mike Fast of Astros and that should get you the right link.

Not that Hembree hasn't learned, just that you can't just quote a high BABIP and make that assumption.   Checking out his numbers (reminder, this was written a while back), his career BABIP is roughly .327, so perhaps he hasn't learned.  And subtracting his poor numbers this season, his career BABIP previously was still .316, so perhaps this is an issue with Hembree.

Again, SSS, but the Giants must have a reason for keeping him down, I was amazed this off-season that Law got all the love from the Giants FO while Hembree barely got any mention, even though he had a stellar performance for them in his 2013 call-up, I thought he would be at least penciled in for a spot in 2014 opening day, since Sabean said that they needed to improve their bullpen.   But even Dunning got more mention for the bullpen than Hembree, it seemed to me.

And looking at his numbers, as closer, he should not be that messed up by poor relief with his inherited runners, and yet his ERA in AAA has never been all that good.  Yes, it's an offensive league, but there are plenty of pitchers who are better, he was 76th in the league.   And if DIPS don't work in the minors, ERA is all we got.  

He does have great K/BB ratios, and that will probably get him his chance, but if he can't figure out the BABIP issue, his chances to be a major leaguer, let alone a closer, is pretty iffy.   The good thing for him is that he has pretty good command and control, so he can minimize walks, but hits is what hurts, especially for a reliever, particularly for the closer expected to come in sometimes with runners on.  Giving up hits is fine if he's strictly closing when starting the 9th with no outs and no runners, but not so good when coming in a truer save situation. 

He must be grooving in pitches in order to avoid walks, so it seems to me that he needs to learn that walks aren't all that bad to give up if it means that you are giving the hitter good pitches to hit for base hits.   He has a very high K/9, he can afford to walk a few more if that means less hits given up, better to give up one more walk than one more hit, the vast majority of the time.

That said, I agreed with what was said about him.  He's probably coming up by season's end and getting some 7/8th inning action.  He's probably up for the closer role in 2015, but I wouldn't bet on it given the above.  Plus Casilla appears to be the man right now, though if Machi ever rights his ship, he could be considered given his experience closing in Venezuela.   And Affeldt could easily slip into the closer role, I think.  

In any case, Hembree should be out of options by next season, so he's most probably making the 25-man roster next season barring any implosion on his part in the spring 2015.   But even that's not a given, even if Romo leaves (doubtful he stays unless willing to accept reliever money like Affeldt and not closer money like Wilson), I expect Kontos to take a spot in the bullpen after his great comeback this season.  So Hembree's probably battling Kontos, Machi, Gutierrez for three spots in the bullpen, with Casilla, Affeldt, Lopez, and Petit in the other four bullpen spots (that's assuming Petit doesn't take Vogelsong's spot in the rotation, but then maybe Kickham takes that long reliever spot, right now).  And given Romo's difficulties now and ties to the Giants, he might accept an set-up reliever contract like Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez have gotten and be retained, making it only two spots open among the four.

And push come to shove, if it's three spots, probably its him against Gutierrez for the final spot, though I've noticed the Giants have been pushing their relievers to go beyond 1 inning, so Hembree could take the long relief spot by being able to pitch 2 innings to bridge to the middle relievers, who could also go 2 innings as necessary.

Your 2014 Giants: Drafty Thoughts

As I do every year, I'm posting my thoughts on the Giants draft, based on the mock drafts that I've been perusing.  If you know the draft already or seen the mocks, I'm not going to be adding much knowledge to you, this is for the people who don't have the time to read all this stuff.

A Long-Term Tale, Not Over Yet: Say Hey, Bum

Seeing complaints about a variety of Giants players like Belt, Pence, Morse, when they, not that long before the complaints, were doing well, reminded me of how in baseball, you need to look beyond the current, look beyond the overall, look beyond the year.   And I know I've been guilty of not taking a long enough look at a situation, though at some point you have to point out the bad stuff.  I thought I would look at such a situation:   Madison Bumgarner vs. Jason Heyward.

A-Gon: A-Gone, Returned, A-Gone Again?

Seeing the Dodgers and A-Gon got me thinking about A-Gon, who had a very hot April, apparently finally recovered from his shoulder surgery in the 2010 off-season.

Your 2014 Giants: Beat Dem Bums

I was curious how the Giants have fared since the Trades That Made the Dodgers Great (TM) , getting A-Gon, Hanley, and others, most of the bigger names they have kept, some gone already:

• July 25:  Hanley Ramirez
• July 30:  Brandon League
• July 31:  Shane Victorino
• Aug 3:  Joe Blanton
• Aug 25:  A-Gon, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Nick Punto

Comments I've posted regarding pitchers

I've been commenting on Giants pitchers in the past week or so, and thus I thought I would share it here for my readers (edited, as usual, I'm always changing and updating), in case you missed them, I've sprinkled them around and consolidating here:

Why I Love Giants Management: Part Deux

A recent news from spring training regarding Derek Law (here's article by Pavlovic) got me singing the praises of Giants management again.

Comment deleted again!

Amazing!  Comments deleted from two sites the other week.  Looks like I'm on a roll!

I won't embarrass this second site as I still have some respect for the blogger, and the blog has a lot of good information.  Sigh, whatever, as if deleting it will change the data, the truth will always find a way out to the light (hint, hint, nudge, nudge), as the Emperor in that story about his lack of clothing found out.

For those who don't like when I write about personal stuff, you can stop reading now.

For those who want to continue, this is a story of a know-it-all Doctor and how he ultimately was proven to be wrong, very very wrong.

Your 2014 Giants: Barry Bonds is Coming To Town!

As reported by our great beat writers (links to the right), Barry Bonds will be coming to the Giants spring training camp this year.  As another writer (I think Yahoo) noted, he will conveniently arrive after his ol' buddy Jeff "Motorcycles Are the New Truck" Kent leaves the camp after his stint as instructor is over.  The writer also interviewed Kent and, of course, he said something quite convoluted which basically bashes Bonds by what's not being said than by what's being said.   Which means the same old, same old thing, as Kent is great for a quote for the media again and for bashing Bonds in some way.  Still, both were great players in their own rights, and it's nice that both are coming in, unpaid, and helping out the current players.

Your 2014 Giants: MiLBA 2014 Arrived!

Happy First Day of Spring Training!  I just got my Minor League Baseball Analyst annual for 2014 and wanted to share.  And Haft reported on his blog that Sandoval looked real good (for him), and Pavlovic also reported that Sanchez learned his lesson and that Hudson is fine physically, running and doing everything without thinking about it, and is nearly 100%.

New Hall of Famers: Maddux, Smoltz, and The Big Hurt Voted In

The three sure-thing first time vote Hall of Famers got in on their first try:  Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and Frank "the Big Hurt" Thomas.  Maddux only missed by 16 votes of a unanimous vote.

2014 40-Man Roster Changes to Avoid Rule 5 Draft Losses

The following players have been reported by Baggarly and Pavlovic to have been added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made available via the Rule 5 draft happening soon:

• Gary Brown, CF
• Kendry Flores, RHP
• Adam Duvall, 3B
• Hunter Strickland, RHP

That put us over.  To get us back to 40, pitcher Guillermo Moscoso was DFAed.

It was also noted that more players may have to be DFAed to accommodate the reportedly soon to be signed Javier Lopez deal (reported to be 3 year, $13M by BA Sports Guy), and when the Giants sign another player to fill the last SP position (whether Vogelsong or another free agent; sounds like if Vogelsong is signed, he will be made the last starting pitcher, he won't have to battle anyone for that role - though like any player, he could lose it if he plays poorly in spring).

ogc thoughts

The first three were no-brainers.  Brown, while disappointing many, is still very good defensively, and as Juan Perez showed this year, even in limited play, you can make a huge contribution via great defensive plays.  And he's working on his mechanics to become a better hitter.  Flores, rose to the occasion and did very well, putting his name into the conversation among top Giants prospects.  Great K/BB of 8.06, as his command improved even better than before - and he was very good before - while maintaining a high K/9.   Plus, he was only 21 for the season.  Duvall has been hitting homers and playing a decent 3B, and hit OK there.

Strickland was a surprise.  He had already been DFAed during the 2013 season and went unclaimed.  I liked his numbers before he was injured, so I was surprised he was dropped, as the DFA suggests that they did not think much of his chances.  But by protecting him from the Rule 5 draft, that means the Giants front office thinks enough of his potential that instead of risking losing him, they put him on the 40-man roster.

I was a little surprised that Moscoso was released, and yet not.  Surprised because he pitched well for us.  Not surprised because he made the point early on that he wants to be a starting pitcher, and apparently the Giants do not agree, and are letting him go, much like they did with Correia, who also wanted to start, for someone, anyone.  Apparently Petit, who is out of options, is now first in line to be the long reliever.

Baggarly points out Mijares as the most likely to go first, when Lopez is signed, he was already being eyed for non-tender anyway.  Next one expected to go after Mijares is Tony Abreu.

Both Moscoso and Mijares have good stats, and should not have a hard time finding another team, if/when the time comes.  Abreu I'm not sure of.  His frequent injuries will hurt his chances of finding a place for him.

I also wonder which players were not protected and thus are draftable in the Rule 5 draft.  We have not lost many players via this rule, but you never know.

And the 40-man is going to get crowded soon, as the prospects keep doing well and moving up.   I went through an exercise to see who would get assigned to each level and came up with the following:

• Mike Kickham, Eric Surkamp, Chris Heston, Edwin Escobar plus one (probably someone signed to minor league deal) in AAA; 
• Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Ty Blach, Adalberto Mejia, Kendry Flores in AA; 
• Chris Stratton, Martin Agosta, Joan Gregorio, Chris Johnson, Joe Kurrasch in Advanced A; and 
• Nick Vander Tuig, Chase Johnson, Luis Ysla, Carlos Diaz, Andrew Leenhouts, Keury Mella in A-ball in Augusta. 

Wow, they all seem good, in one way or another, the system is full up! All of the above pitchers have some nice qualities that could work in the majors.  Escobar looks near certain to perform well enough to break in the majors in 2014 at some point, whether through need or September call-up.  That should provide a lot of trading chips should the Giants need to trade by mid-season.

Your 2013 Giants: Priorities for the Off-Season

With the Giants season having basically been over for a long time, fans thoughts turns towards the off-season and what their priorities for the Giants should be.