Tim Lincecum: 2008 Cy Young Winner

As reported in a SFGiants.com e-mail to me, Tim Lincecum has won the 2008 Cy Young Award.  He is the second Giant to receive the award, the first being Mike McCormick.  He is also the first second year player to win the award since both Dwight Gooden and Bret Saberhagen won in 1985 in their respective leagues.   He is just the 12th pitcher to win the award for a sub-.500 team.

He got 23 out of the 32 first place votes and 7 of the second place votes plus one third place vote.    That is a total of 137 points, almost doubling the second place winner, Brandon Webb, who had 73 points.   The fear that Johan Santana might steal the award with his spirited finish was unfounded as he only received 55 points.  

He did this striking out 265 batters, the first time a Giants pitcher has led the league in strikeouts, and he was second in wins and ERA.  In addition, the .339 difference between his winning percentage and the Giant's team percentage is the 7th widest difference in the history of major league baseball for any pitcher with at least 15 wins.  

Rays: "That's How to Do It"

This is meant to be a sarcastic title:  because the Rays made the World Series, we will have a bunch of media pundits out there talking about how "that's how to do it."  Yeah, if by do it, it means coming in last in 9 out of the first 10 years of your existence, having the worse record in baseball 4 times out of the last 10 years, and alienating a portion of their fanbase who paid for them to be there in the first place.   [not sure, but also think that they threatened to leave the town too]  They also lucked out that the Mets gave them a great prospect all for the price of a beaten up and broken down veteran pitcher;  without Scott Kazmir, I don't think that they would be in the World Series today.

And it is not like I don't like the team - I do - nor is it that I don't think they deserve it - I do - but that the media like to focus on the final result but ignore the icky issue that festers beneath the surface, which is how exactly did they get to where they are today.  

Last 9 Years Out of 10 With No End in Sight

The Rays had been last in 9 years out of 10 plus had the worse record in baseball 4 times, netting them four #1 overall picks.   If you ask fans to support a team like that, knowing that is the end  result, you might get some hardy souls who could stand that, knowing that at the end of the rainbow, there is that pot o' gold.  But there was no guarantee, no light at the end of the tunnel, just the vague hope that somehow they will figure things out with all their young players. 

And they are not really that young.  Carlos Pena, their starting 1B is 30, at 2B is Akinori Iwamura who is 29, Jason Barlett is 28 and the starting SS, Gabe Gross is their regular RF and he is 28, and Cliff Floyd is their regular DH and is 35 years old, plus Eric Hinske was their first guy off the bench and he is 30 years old himself.  And their bullpen is mostly 30 and above, Troy Percival at 38, Trever Miller at 35, Dan Wheeler at 30, Grant Balfour at30, and only JP Howell and Jason Hammel at 25 is under 30.  

But they do have a nice young core.   Their starting rotation with Scott Kazmir, James Shields, Matt Garza, Andy Sonnanstine, and Edwin Jackson (who finally was having an OK year; nothing like the hype he got as a D-ger, but at least he's doing OK, which is more than one could hope just a couple of years ago) was great.  In the lineup, they have Dioner Navarro at C (another nice steal, this one from D-gers for Mark Hendrickson), Evan Longoria at 3B, Carl Crawford at LF, and BJ Upton at CF, plus Willy Aybar (25) , Ben Zobrist (27), and Jonny Gomes (27) as strong bench players and spot starters, as well as the oft-injured Rocco Baldelli.

Their Draft Shows the Hit or Miss Nature

My draft study showed the hit and mainly miss nature of the draft and the Rays first round drafts echoes that nature.  Even for top 5 picks, of which they have had 8 in the past 10 years, my study showed that the odds of finding a good player was around 40-45%.  That means the Rays should find roughly 3-4 of them.

Obviously, the picks of the last couple of years haven't had enough time to show anything, but the others have.  Longoria and Upton, obviously are performing like good players.  They would need to do this long-term for this to be certain, but it looks good right now.  Obviously Josh Hamilton didn't amount to much until the Reds got ahold of him, but still he should count as a good pick.  Dewan Brazelton, however, does not and neither does Neimann, who is still in AAA and struggled in the majors, though he's only 25 and could still make it (but still, other could still not make it, so I call it a wash).  Delmon Young is still very young and likewise has struggled, so he is not good yet, though still looks destined for goodness (but more importantly, they were able to swap him for Matt Garza, still love that steal of a trade, plus they swapped shortstops, getting the better one there too; I'm happy to see the Twins get the short end of the stick in a trade).  

That is roughly 3 good players plus David Price and/or Tim Beckham might make it 4 or 5.  That is about as expected, with the hope of the young balanced by the risk that any of the already good become busts before they reach 6 years, much like how Baldelli (6th pick overall) blew out or Jonny Gomes went from good starter to bench player.   There is also Wade Townsend (8th pick overall) who is also struggling to make the majors. 

Good Overall

Still, they made some good picks in later rounds, like Carl Crawford (2nd round), James Shields (16th), and Andy Sonnanstine (13th), as well as astute trades, for Dioner Navarro, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and Dan Wheeler, and good free agents signings like Carlos Pena, Akinori Iwamura, Troy Percival.  Those are also good things.

The Price

Still, 9 years of last place out of 10 seasons, is that really what our Bay Area sportswriters really want the Giants and A's to do, attendance would be under 1 million for the season if that were to happen.  The Rays had under 1.4 million last season, and has been in the 1.0 to 1.3 million range for theit history there.  

Giants Rooting Interest

I normally go over the Giants fans guide to playoff rooting interest before the playoffs begin, so I'll just run through it here and lead up to the World Series.

Dodgers obviously topped the list of who not to root for.  But with the one game playoff, both the Twins and White Sox were teams to root against as well.  And, of course, the Angels.    Basically you as a Giants should not be rooting for any of these teams, no matter what.

Among the other teams, I would place them in this order to root for:

• Chicago Cubs:  stole Pinella from us, as well as Baker than Eyre, but nothing to really get upset over them, I would have been rooting for them the most because they haven't won one in 100 years.
  
• Brewers:  nothing really about them that affected the Giants much, but they are Bud Selig's former team and haven't gone as many years as Cubs without WS victory.
• Red Sox:  As much as they have won in recent years, I don't mind them too much
• Phillies:  They have Pedro Feliz as their biggest negatives but I'll be rooting for them.
  
• Rays:  Their town almost stole the Giants from us, literally had bought the team already but the MLB wisely blocked that and finally Magowan was able to save the team in SF. Plus, as noted above, I don't want to hear it from the media that this is the way to do it because nobody was enjoying it while they were losing all those years saying that "it's OK, that's how to do it," and point at just their farm system.   There was no progress, they had the worse record again last season, the second year in a row, third year in a row that they had a top 3 worse record, 4 years out of five that they had a top 4 worse record, 7th year out of 8 that they had a top 4 worse record.  If that is the way to do it, the Pirates should really be applauded for their work then.  It was not just their farm system, but also a number of astute trades and key free agent signings.  But there is luck involved too, how often does a team offer their #1 legit top prospect for a washed up starter, how often do you pick up a 29 year old OK firstbaseman free agent who suddenly and finally blossoms into the monster masher he was slated to become 5 years previously, how often do you have two young stars-to-be implode (Baldelli and Gomes) and still recover from it with a super-utility bench player (Gabe Gross), aging and fragile but stellar hitter (Cliff Floyd), and a declining and disappointing corner infielder/outfielder (Eric Hinske), how often do you rely on an aged (38 year old Troy Perceival) closer who only two years before missed an entire season plus half of the previous one plus did not pitch like a closer (4.53 ERA) but still it worked, 28 saves, and lastly, how often do you win in a trade where you give up Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie?  While they did all the things they had to do right, they also had some things go their way in a significant way, and not in a way another team could duplicate.  And I do find it interesting that the team recently lost a stadium vote and require civic support to build a new stadium, particularly in this bad economic climate, and wouldn't a World Series win just fill the city full of civic pride and open up pockets and political win to build a new ballpark?
  

Thus for the World Series, I will be rooting for the Phillies versus the Rays, they have the history as well as the present against them from my perspective as a Giants fan.  

  

Lincecum Reaches 200 Strikeouts

Tim Lincecum in his last start reached 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career. He had 196 between the majors and minors last season and 199 in college once. Accomplishments (from Chron, Merc, sfgiants.com accounts):

• He became the first Giant since Jason Schmidt accumulated 251 K's in 2004 to reach that level.
• The 24-year-old is the ninth Giants pitcher to reach the 200-strikeout level since the franchise moved to San Francisco in 1958.
• Tim Lincecum's the seventh different San Francisco Giant to strike out 200 hitters. His predecessors are Jason Schmidt (2003, 2004), Juan Marichal (1963-66 and '68-69), Gaylord Perry (1966-67 and '69-70), Sam Jones (1959), Ray Sadecki (1968) and John Montefusco (1975).
• Lincecum maintained terrific stuff to the end, popping the glove at 96 mph while striking out the side in the seventh inning. Lincecum offered more reassurance that he is built for a long race: "My body feels the same. It feels strong."
• Lincecum also improved to 14-3, matching the second-best record among San Francisco pitchers through 17 decisions. He matched Juan Marichal (1968) and Scott Garrelts (1989) and trails only Gaylord Perry (15-2 in 1966).
• The bullpen has squandered leads in six of Lincecum's starts; the rubbery right-hander was in line for the victory in five of them. Thus, he could be 19-3 right now with perfect bullpen support.
• He leads the league in strikeouts (200) and ERA (2.48).

In addition, the Giants shut out the 'Dres behind Lincecum and Wilson's pitching. The Giants' 10 shutouts this season tied them with the Dodgers and Mets for the National League lead entering Saturday. The last San Francisco team to record more blankings was the 2002 club, which had 13.

Go Tim!

Sickel Reviews His Giants Top 20 Prospect List From Start of Season

John Sickel's, a prospect maven on the web (I think he used to work for Bill James and then worked for ESPN, so he has some cred), regularly publishes his thoughts on a team's top prospects early in the year and he just recently reviewed that list and gave his thoughts on how the players did this season.

There are a lot of good information on a lot of players there, so have a read, I'll note the ones that caught my eye; a lot, however, many Giants fans know already so the below I think are more value added (my comment in parens):

• Angel Villalona: .248/.298/.400 with 13 homers, 18 walks, 111 strikeouts in 407 at-bats for Augusta in the Sally League. Horrible strike zone judgment, but just 17 years old most of this season.
• Henry Sosa: pitching time limited by knee injury.
• Madison Bumgarner: Not nearly as raw as most expected, breaking ball still needs some work but tremendous fastball command has made him unbeatable at this level.
• Nate Schierholtz: Has nothing left to prove here. Needs a clean chance in the majors or a new organization. (No position for him, plus he still needed development after 2008 and thus regular playing time, something he wouldn't have gotten if he got promoted. It was all good, I believe, but 2009 will be different, and he really needs to be in the majors and starting, Winn must go!)
• Nick Noonan: Poor plate discipline is biggest concern right now.
• Clayton Tanner: Efficient strike thrower who gets grounders. Double-A transition in 2009 will tell the tale.
• Eugenio Velez: Speed and versatility will get him more chances (Sickels noted his poor stats this season).
• Wendell Fairley: Unimpressive, tools are not turning into skills yet. (Biggest disappointment of the season, all talk so far no action... I was a little worried about that, given his off-field problems, that he might not be that into his work and play, he would be more into his off-field stuff. Next season will show if he's capable of manning up and making up for his poor 2008 or if he sinks lower; seems to have a world of talent though, so we need to be patient)
• John Bowker: He's capable of better but I don't see why he gets to play and Schierholtz doesn't. (Because Bowker really socked ball out in AA last season, it was masked by Dodd Stadium, and Nate struggled a bit with AAA last season and still needed development time, really)
• Charlie Culberson: Not producing much of anything, just six steals, no power, weak on-base skills. Young enough to improve. (He might end up repeating at Augusta while everyone else moves up...)
• Osiris Matos: Should be a useful reliever. (Despite his poor first time up in majors, along with other relievers, people forget that it is not just a competition adjustment coming up, but there are a lot of other things to deal with as a major leaguer; this is why Earl Weaver liked to bring starters up slowly, as a reliever where he can control his opportunities for success as he adjusts to major league life, then he gets to start next season)
• Wilber Bucardo: Gets grounders and throws strikes, other marks not impressive at all.
• Sergio Romo: Gotta love the K/BB and K/IP. Main concern is strong fly ball tendency leading to excessive homers. (Despite being a finesse strikeout pitcher, I think he's capable of doing well in majors based on the time he has spent so far in the majors, he just need to be more of a pitcher than a thrower, odd to say about a finesse guy, but his problems in the majors shows he's doing something wrong.)
• Emmanuel Burriss: Good speed, but total lack of power will preclude big success. (Giants realize this, that's why Carney Lansford will be working with him during off-season and spring training to get him to hit more line drives, as recent Merc article noted. "As big and strong as he is, he should be able to drive the ball better.'' Apparently he's OK right-handed, but is totally weak as a lefty. "...he wants Burriss to develop gap power as opposed to hitting the ball out of the park. "He's done a very good job putting the ball in play. But he chases too much and there are other things we'll work on to help him. He's got the potential to be a much better left-handed hitter."" Sounds good to me, that's why I think he'll be the starter at 2B in 2009 with Frandsen at 3B; hopefully Burriss can develop and man SS after 2009. While I think Frandsen's better position is 2B, I think Noonan will grab that sooner or later, and I think Frandsen can hit at the major league level).
• Ben Copeland: Still looks like a reserve outfielder to me.
• Ben Snyder: Having problems making transition to Double-A, a common issue for finesse pitches.

Here is his final summary:

Villalona could develop into a superstar. He could also fail to gain
command of the strike zone and end up as a big bust. It is just too early to
know. Alderson has been really good, and Bumgarner has been unstoppable. The
middle infield options don't look too great right now, with failures to hit
sufficiently among the guys on this list. But overall the Giants system is in
better condition than it has been in recent years.

Not too surprising on Villalona, chill out if you are worrying, as this is normal stuff for such a young player playing at such a low level. The key point is that he is holding his own while playing against much older competition. That is a key to him making the majors at a young age, but it is a gaunlet he will go through as he rises up the minors, he will have to re-prove himself each and every season.

The rest basically captures our 2008 minor leagues except for our big breakout success of Pablo Sandoval. And the farm system obviously looks a whole lot better with the addition of Posey, Gillaspie, Kieschnick, and Crawford.

Twas the Night Before the 2008 Amateur Draft

I saw some interesting news about the Giants strategy and thinking about their #5 draft pick. Seems like they can be happy in a number of different ways. Baseball America reported here the following:

The Giants and first-year scouting director John Barr could have a pleasant surprise at five. They’re said to have Hosmer at the top of their board but he may not get that far. However, Beckham or Posey might, which would give the Giants the chance to draft a premium middle-of-the-diamond player.

This is the first I've heard anywhere that the Giants have a player on the top of their board. Of course, the Giants typically play such information close to their vest, so for this to leak out, I wonder if it is a smoke screen to get the Royals to select Hosmer for sure, as rumored and reported in a variety of places.

Basically, there are three position players considered to be the cream of this years crop: Pedro Alvarez, Tim Beckham, and Buster Posey. For one of them to fall to the Giants, at least two of the four teams ahead of them will need to draft someone other than one of these three. Most mock drafts have Kansas City Royals selecting Hosmer 3rd and the Baltimore Orioles selecting LHP Brian Matusz (though one just changed it to the other premier pitcher in the draft, Aaron Crow). The roll of the dice is in who the Rays select.

They are considered to have narrowed it down to T.Beckham and Posey, with Beckham the name most prognosticators have selected as the Rays pick. That would leave Alvarez, who was the concensus top pick for a while now, in the hands of the Pirates, who want to make a big splash this year in a break from the previous regime.

Draft a Posey

And that would leave Posey in the hands of the Giants. He would be a good fit with the Giants. He plays good enough defense that most think that he will be able to stay at the catching position in the majors. But he was good enough to play SS his first season in college, so he could always move up the middle of the diamond positionally if necessary. And his offense is good enough to be plus at any of the middle of the diamond positions. He also relieved a little successfully too.

Here is the MiLB's draft profile for Posey. Pluses include "advanced hitting skills," and "good knowledge of the strike zone". He has the potential for 10-15 homers per season. "He's a highly sought-after package, a catcher who'll be able to stay behind the plate and has a chance to hit."

Weaknesses is the big one, his inexperience behind the plate (he was a shortstop his first season of college before converting to catcher full-time). He lacks the nuances of the position but the cure is easy: he just needs to catch more. Shifting behind the plate is one area of weakness.

Here is the summary:

College catchers who can stay at the position and can hit are always a hot commodity and Posey will be no exception. He's got a great approach with the bat and has a little power. As a converted shortstop, he's still a little raw behind the plate, but all the tools are there for him to be just fine and help ensure he gets drafted fairly early.

Not as good as Wieters, who was selected 5th last season, in my opinion, but he is probably the best catcher in this year's crop and among the top hitters. Perhaps they could partner him up with Jackson Williams and have Williams help mentor him. And, of course, the catcher doctor, Steve Decker is the manager in San Jose, so Posey could end up there next season and learn.

I would be very happy to get him, even the 5th pick is fraught with question marks typically. So selecting an athletic, versatile (he played all 9 positions in a game recently) hitter would help reduce the risk that he might not pan out at C. And if he can stick at C, all the better, Molina could be gone by the end of 2009 and who knows if Pablo Sandoval can continue to impress as he moves up. Better to have an alternative plan.

Giants Eye Isaac?

For the Giants supplemental first round pick, the name I see has been Isaac Galloway, a toolsy CF that fits the mode of the athletic prospects the Giants tend to like.

Here is the draft profile for Galloway.

Wow, he sounds great:

• Galloway is a solid contact hitter who can drive the ball to all fields.
• He has plus power to the pull side and has the potential to hit 20-plus homers annually.
• He's a plus runner now, though he may settle in as a tick above average as he matures.
  He's not a pure basestealer, but he could be a 15-20 steals per year kind of runner.
• He has a plus arm that has more than enough carry to work from right field.
• He can go get the ball well, though left field may eventually be his best spot.
• Strengths: His all-around tools. Galloway has all five of them and is already showing some aptitude toward using them in games.
• Weaknesses: There isn't much looseness to his body, which could mean he'll lose a step speed-wise as he matures.

Summary:

It's a good year for toolsy high school outfielders in California and Galloway is right near the top of that list. He's got more now skills -- and less projection -- than fellow outfielders Aaron Hicks and Anthony Gose. But he can do everything well and should develop into a guy who will hit for average and power as well as steal some bases. The ceiling may not be as through the roof as with the others, but he's the type who could hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases annually in the future."

Sounds kind of like another Fred Lewis, a toolsy outfielder, only right-handed. He could be ready in 3-4 years to reach the majors given the assessment that he's a bit more developed than others but is lacking in projection. Still, a 20-20 hitter is nothing to sneeze at and would be a great contributor or trade bait.

Plus someone posted in the comments section that the Giants are eyeing Tyler Landendorf SS.
Here is a report on him. Apparently the Giants drafted him last season so they could do it again. He might not stick at SS though, might get too big, in which case probably means the outfield for him. He sounds like a pretty good pick as well, so I could live with him as well.

Happy Picking, Giants!

Alas: D'gers not interested in Feliz

This will be a short post to note that the D'gers are not interested in Feliz, read this in an article on mlb.com about Colletti talking at their mini-camp. Apparently they are happy with Nomar competing with Andy LaRoche for the starting spot. I guess Colletti was just "kicking the tires" with Feliz, probably to see if he would be amenable to a one year plus option contract with the D'gers. :^)

Other news on the evil empire from the article is that apparently Juan Pierre, he of the 5 year, $44M contract with 4 more years to go, is in competition for a spot in the outfield, with Andre Ethier (hey, think Beane and the A's could use him now?). I wonder how he feels about that one, though I suppose he'll be laughing all the way to the bank. Of course, new acquisition Andruw Jones will be starting in CF and Matt Kemp in RF.

Andruw Jones: Beginning of the End?

Speaking of Andruw Jones, most forecasts of his performance has him doing well but under the high levels he had previously reached. Looking at his stats, he actually increased his FB% in 2007, but his HR/FB% fell drastically: he has ranged from 18.7% to 25.2% but only had 13.4% in 2007. That makes it look like he actively tried lofting the ball more in order to make up for his HR shortfall, which probably hurt his batting line even more, particularly since it came out of his line drives percentage. And that is a power outage of nearly 20% in terms of HR/FB% with no injury to explain it, suggesting that age is taking over (or, given recent steroids scandal and PED crackdown, there could be other explanations...).

I wonder if any of the forecasts took into account his change in address from Atlanta to LA. In Atlanta's Turner Field, right-handed hitters got a boost to their homer total, with a 103 park index in 2007, 102 for 2005-7. The park is pretty neutral, some slightly above, some below, at least over the past 3 years, because 2007 had some extremes to it.

In LA, right-handed hitters over the past 3 years got a nice boost with a park index of 106, but in 2007 had a deflated amount with a park index of 96 (it really pays to be a lefty HR hitter for the D-gers, park index of 118). The park has been mostly neutral, but like Atlanta, had odd jumps and drops in 2007.

From this, it looks like even if they did account for the park, there would only be minor changes to his projections (data from Bill James 2008 Handbook; hopefully they are correct this year, I was using his numbers last year when I found out, totally by accident, that the park indices, among other sections, were all wrong. I don't know if I can buy the book again if there is huge errors again.). He might gain a little in HR but if the 2007 park index continues, he would lose a little.

In any case, the projections are that he will be right around his career numbers, which is a conclusion I have to question. He appears to be on the downside of his career based on what I see in his career numbers, which is not impossible since he will be 31 for the 2008 season and once a player reach his 30's you have to keep an eye out for the signs.

To me, it is significant that his BABIP was down to his career lows again, just as low as it was in 2005 and, more significantly, it is lower than even when he started, though marginally so: .250 BABIP in his first season, .244 in 2005 and .248 in 2007. Still, two of his lowest BABIP of his career have been in the last three seasons. That's not a good trend.

At least, if you are a D-ger fan; if you are a Giants fan, they have what appears to be a declining Andruw Jones who will suck up $18M per year for two years, plus a Juan Pierre who wasn't much of an offensive weapon to begin with and could find himself a $9M bench player in 2008, depending on how he competes for the LF position with Ethier. They were both players that could have ended up with the Giants, depending on the alternative universe scenarios - Pierre was bid on by the Giants and there was a lot of talk among Giants fans about getting Jones over Rowand - and I'm glad it's the D-gers who have to worry if Jones is done or not, to the tune of $18M per year, plus are saddled with Pierre, whether he plays or not, that's money they cannot spend elsewhere on their roster.