Ghosts of Giants Past Visiting Game 5 of the NLCS

Heard some cool factoids in the media after the thrilling victory that propelled the Giants into the World Series for the third time in five seasons.  And they involve some old-time Giants helping the Giants of the Present in each home run.

Your 2014 Giants ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

The Giants win the Pennant!  The Giants win the Pennant!  The Giants win the Pennant!

ogc thoughts

Wow, what a series, what an ending!

Travis Ishikawa, gaining redemption for misplaying the flyball earlier, giving the Cards their first run, hit a three-run homer for a walk-off win in the bottom of the 9th, just like billions of kids have dreamed of doing.

Meanwhile, NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner pitched well enough, while coughing up a couple of homers, and despite all the strike thrown, not that many strikeouts, to keep the team close, after giving up the 3 runs after 4 innings pitched, shutting down the Cards for another 4 innings, getting us to the point where Michael Morse could hit a homer in the 8th to tie the game, then Ishi came through in the bottom of the 9th.

And oh, how fortunes can change in just one year, Wacha, after winning the NLCS MVP award last season, he's used in the whole series until now, pitches third of an inning, ending with a 81.00 ERA for this series.

Can't forget Joe Panik hitting the team's first homer of the NLCS, two run homer to put the team ahead after the Cards scored the first run on the ball that Ishi misplayed.  After all these runs scored without hits, the Giants score six runs in this game with the long ball, a solo, a two-run, and the walk-off three-run.

Congrats to the Giants!  Good luck in the World Series!

Go Giants!

Your 2014 Giants: NLCS Game 4: What a Relief

My thoughts following Game 4 of the NLCS.

ogc thoughts

Bullpen combines with Posey and Adams' two bad moves (which led to the two runs that was our lead) was crucial for the win, 6-4.  Petit for President!  He is like found money in a jacket, our Lincecum for this playoff season, totally shut down.  Posey hasn't yet had an extra-base hit, but he did what he needed to, driving in three runs.  He now has 19 RBIs and is only two away from Bonds' franchise record.  Meanwhile, Sandoval gets on base and that's 22 consecutive playoff games with him getting on base, breaking Bonds' franchise record.

If Adams don't try to throw out Perez and just got Blanco out, they would have been out of the inning probably (if Panik still grounds out), and we would go into extra innings and see if Bochy would use Lincecum at all.

So there is no pressure on the Giants tomorrow, plus they got Bumgarner on the mound, 0.76 ERA in the playoffs, 23 K in 23.2 IP, only 3 walks, 7.67 K/BB.  .367 OPS by opposing batters.  69% strikes.

You Gotta Like These Kids!!!

Juan Perez comes in and work a walk, Duffy come in and sacrifices the runners to 2nd and 3rd (remember, Felipe Alou's inability to bunt and advance the runners in 1962 cost the Giants), Panik grounds out but drives in what proves to be the winning run.  Panik also singled in the first, more importantly, advanced Blanco to 3rd, where Posey could drive him in.

There is a new tech on MLB.com called StatCast, and this video and article digs into the details of Perez's dash home to score around the tag by AJP to get him out.  This is pretty good stuff, and it showed Crawford and Blanco running as well.  It also felt nice to beat AJP there.

Petit Performs Prominently

Petit does it again:  shuts down the other team.  This time, 3.0 IP, 1 hit and 1 walk, 4 K's, earns the win (who says the stat ain't got no value?).   Vogie just didn't have it, but Petit saves the game for the Giants.

I felt that he had earned himself a start, but I can understand why Bochy might not do it.  While Petit is comfortable coming in for a failing starter, the starters he might replace are not.  So if Petit is started, and he fails, then who do we go to, a starter who is not used to relieving?

Still, should we make it to the next round, if it were me, I would start Petit, and not only start him, but make him the Game 2 or 3 starter.  Go for the jugular early.

Sabers Missing the Point:  This Bullpen is Worth It

Every time the Giants signed up Affeldt, Romo, Casilla, Lopez to a big contract, the catcalls and naysaying begin.  Fungible asset.  They don't produce enough WAR to justify the money.  Just pick up somebody cheap, the Giants do it all the time, just replace them on the cheap.

This is why the Giants pay these guys the big money.  Affeldt hasn't given up a run in the post-season in 17 consecutive appearances.  Casilla hasn't in 16 appearances, Lopez is at 15 appearances.   Heck, Casilla had not given up a hit since September 11th, over a month ago.  Romo has only given up runs in two appearances in his last 20, one in his last 13 appearances.  

How invaluable have they been for us this post-season?  How invaluable is it knowing that you got guys who understand their roles, who do it so well, and above all that, are consistently good?   How many of these one-run games would we have lost had these guys been even yielding one run as a group, regularly?  Is it worth the collective $22-24M or so for them to advance from the NLDS to the NLCS to leading 3-1 in trying to make the World Series?  Would you rather be efficient, potentially (see, they forget that if you bet wrong in selecting your replacement relievers, there's no easy way to replace that production, no matter how much money you throw at it), or would you rather advance to the next round?  

I would think the A's would have loved to have had a shut down relief corps at their disposal.  They led 7-3 and 8-7, and could not hold either lead.  Not to pick on Otero, because I was disappointed the Giants let him go, but he was a cheap effective reliever for them in the regular season, great numbers, but he gave up 2 runs that ended the game.  Think they wouldn't have loved to have someone better available then.  Or how about Doolittle?  He has a cheap contract, became the closer this season, so relatively inexperienced, and he gave up the tying run in the 9th.

Think they wouldn't have loved to have Casilla?  In fact, he was an A's property until they released him after the 2009 season.  The Giants picked him up for nothing, shaped him up, and he was immediately a very important component of the Giants bullpen, rising to closer role twice, though even today, he says that he don't consider himself the closer, he just goes in when the boss says so.   The Giants are paying him around $5M per season to do his role on the team.  16 straight appearances without a run given up.  Collectively among the four, one run in a total of 60 or so appearances.  

How much is that worth when you expect to make the playoffs every season?

Too Much Rope for Starters

Again, I didn't understand Bochy's insistence on keeping the starter in there.  Vogelsong did not have anything at all in this game.  He was clearly grinding it, and you would have thought after giving up the third run, and now facing a LHH in Wong, who was also white hot as a hitter, and down 3-1, you don't leave him in to face Wong.

I guess it is as some have said, Bochy has lost faith in the middle relievers.  Plus, in this case, didn't want to bring in the LHP yet either, so early in the game.   But Petit was already up at that point, may as well put him in and not risk another run being driven in.

I know some will say that this is just hindsight, but that was my first thought when I heard that Vogie was staying in to face Wong.

If Vogie is this bad, should he get another start this post-season, I hope Bochy will hook him earlier.  There was no sign that he had anything, I would have put Petit in earlier, starting with the third, to be frank, because from the radio report, I saw no purpose in keeping him in there other than wishing and hoping that he don't give up more runs while eating more innings.  I had none faith he had it tonight, and there's no shame in that, it happens, and when it does, especially when you have the luxury of a Petit and Lincecum, you go to your GOTO guy in Petit.

With Petit, keeping Lincecum around is a big question mark, other than his stature and salary.  Especially given his revelation that he has not had his father's help with his mechanics since the 2009 season.  Also, apparently both Machi and Strickland have been downgraded in terms of reliance, at least in this series.

Perhaps we'll see Kontos in the World Series, should we make it to the next round.  He would have been useful in the 7th or earlier in many of these games.  And he's been a good reliever this season.  I actually thought that he was a slamdunk to make the playoff rosters, so I was shocked that he was left off.

However, who would then sit out the World Series.  I could have seen maybe Lincecum before, but not for the World Series, they have carried him so far, I don't see why they won't do it again.  That would leave either Strickland or Machi.  Will be interesting.

Game 5

Seems inevitable - we got our ace going for us at home, plus momentum - but as we saw in 2012, that can go fast, just like that.  That's why I love the way Bochy has taught all the players and got them to buy into the fact that until you are in, you are out.  Every game is important, every game is a must win.

Just like Game 4, we led 2-1 in the series, 70% odds of winning the series, and had we lost the game, that would come crashing down, as then we would be tied 2-2, and basically down to roughly 50% again (one home game, two road).  Instead now we are 3-1, commanding position, and yet, still some odds we lose, probably around 15% or so, small but not insignificant either.

Still, Bumgarner is on a roll.  3 DOM starts (all 5 PQS) so far in the playoffs.  If not for an ill-timed error on a bunt, he might still be continuing his scoreless streak in the playoffs (as it is, he's still continuing the road portion of that).  Plus he's at home, though this year, he has a 4.03 ERA at home, and only 2.22 ERA on the road.  However, over his career, basically same home or road, low 3's, roughly 3.1 ERA.

But the problem was that he started the season with four bad starts at home.  Rest of season, 3.41 ERA at home.   This is why you start with the seasonal data and then peel away some of the data if things change, to get a better view of things, because while seasonal data is good for an overall view, outliers of a game or two or four can skew the view, and once he fixed his problems, he has been great since.  That's why you don't look at the 4.03 ERA, but rather his 3.41 ERA for the rest of the season, as well as his career 3.1 ERA at home.

According to this article on MLB.com, Wainright identified the problems with his mechanics that was affecting his performance.   He thinks that he has solved his problems after working with AJP (ironic, no?) to figure out what was wrong.  They apparently figured it out during that game, after he was taken out of the game.  So it could be a battle between two aces looking to win the game.

However, reading the article, I see that Wainwright talks about his arm feeling better but not feeling healthy.  And he said he was ready to go before Game 1, so his reliability in telling the full truth of his health is not so good.   So I'll believe it when I see it.  The game could be over pretty quick if Wainright is not right, and Bumgarner can then coast to a win.  But if he is right, it will be a battle, which probably leads to a battle between bullpens and offenses again.

Your 2014 Giants: NLCS Game 3: Ishikawa and The Universe Returning the Favor

My thoughts after game 3 of the NLCS.

ogc thoughts

Wow, what a game of ups and downs, much like Game 2, only, of course, way better as we won.

It was like the Ghost of Candlestick came over to AT&T for a visit, to show these people how the good old days were.  Both Ishikawa's and Wong's hits were batted down from the heavens, back into the reality of the field, where they got a double and triple, respectively.  Else Ishi would have had a grand slam, and maybe THAT would have got the Cards down enough to give up.

Instead, Lackey was somehow able to regroup, find the right mechanics, and basically shut down the Giants for the rest of his start, with only a HBP with Sandoval and a single, by all people, by Hudson.  That allowed the Cards to claw their way back to a tie, with that homer Hudson gave up (I would have took him out after 6, he was tiring already; as it was Affeldt pitched a couple of innings anyway with only 16 pitches).

But the bullpen held on and eventually the offense put up enough (walk and hit) to finally find that weak link in the Cards, and get that winning run, a walk off bunt, another new entry in the annals of odd ways the Giants score runs, and there have been many, including one just the other day when Duffy scored from second on a wild pitch walk.

Ishi-Pow-wa

I see all the articles about Ishikawa and the wonder involved with him doing well, but I'm not surprised.  He is an MLB hitter against RHP.  It is LHP which makes him a platoon player.  But he plays great defense at 1B and, so far, passable defense in LF, so he would make a good bench player for some team.

Against RHP:   .262/.328/.408/.735, 21 Homers in 780 AB (37 AB/HR or 15-20 HR season).  So it was not surprising to me that he hit that 3-run double, he has a lot of power that will show up now and again.

And he adds a win solely on defense at 1B.  And in his prime, two wins.

But the problem is that:  1) he's not a great enough hitter vs. RHP to make up for his poor LHP batting line and 2) he's not a great enough hitter for a firstbaseman that people understand his value to a team.

He would be a fine platoon player where you got a RHH to take his LHP starts, which is what I was hoping for in 2011 when Belt instead made his debut and won the job.   He is perfect for teams where they get 1B-quality bat production from another spot (like the Giants with Posey at C) or teams where they get OK to good production up and down the lineup (like the Giants do), his bat is fine in the 7th or 8th spot, in fact, against RHP, he is probably much above average for the 8th spot, a clear advantage.

People need to get over looking at how a hitter hits relative to players at his position, they need to focus on the overall lineup, and where he hits.  As long as a team got capable hitters batting 3/4/5, Ishi is great batting in the bottom of any team's lineup, he can work the walk a lot of times, while giving the ball a charge now and again, like yesterday.

I've been saying that Belt should just move to LF and let Ishikawa semi-platoon with Posey/Hanchez/Susac at 1B (extra catcher would start at 1B vs. LHP, plus when Posey needs a blow at 1B, he starts there no matter who is throwing).   But with his fine work in LF (and further practice in spring training), I'm thinking that he could be a fine platoon partner starting in LF with, say, Perez) or a fine bench player who can play 1B or LF should there be injuries, but meanwhile, he can provide power and patience off the bench against RHP.

Unfortunately, he probably don't work for us on the bench in 2015.  Blanco is one OF.  Presumably the Giants will sign someone (Morse?) to start in LF.  Do we match up Ishi with Blanco as backup OF, or a RHH like Perez?  Probably the latter.  MI bench would be Arias and Adrianza (I would rather Duffy get full time play in AAA to see if he can further develop into a starting player;  part of me is hoping the Giants give him a shot at 3B should Pablo, most likely, chose to leave).  Backup catcher would be battle between Hanchez and Susac, though the Giants probably prefer Susac start full-time in AAA and prep to take over starting role.  And if they platoon in LF, Blanco would be the better choice to go with Perez than Ishikawa, though I suppose that means there is still a spot in the outfield for Ishikawa to play LF, since Blanco and Perez would be able to handle all three OF positions.

Hudson Waning

I would have took Hudson out after six innings.  It seemed like he was tiring and he was giving up runs.  Normally in such a situation, Bochy usually has the quick trigger finger and go to a reliever, but perhaps it is telling that he chose to risk continuing in spite of the signals, in order to avoid Machi and Strickland, the main 7th inning guys, then skipped them and used Affeldt for 1.2 IP instead.  Two years ago, it would have been Lincecum going 2 innings and then Bochy would hand the ball to the closer.  Why is Lincecum not pitching?

And this is after getting a lot of rest before this start, like 9 days or so.  Which led to his great start of the game.  But he wore down quickly as the game progressed.  I don't know how he'll last more than 4-5 innings should we need him in game 7, should we need to play that game.   I'm not sure I would want him starting in the World Series as our #3 unless we can avoid game 7 and win in 5-6 games, so that he would have a ton of rest again before his next start, and be able to last at least to mid-game before tiring.

And luckily the bullpen came in and shut down the Cards until we could score.

Universe Pay Back

Of course, many people are agog over the bunt-error walk-off that won the game for us.  And rightly so, it is a pretty odd way to win.  Still, the way I see it, it was just the Universe paying us back for the Bumgarner error in Game 3 of the NLDS.   We lost that game because of the error, which cost the Giants a sweep and another day of rest.

That's What I'm Talking About

Tracy Rigolsby, award winning baseball columnist (formerly following Rockies, now national columnist), wrote this article, which captures a lot of what I've been writing about the Giants in the past and recently:

And the bottom line is that it all comes about because San Francisco is playing winning baseball. 

They are able to take advantage of another team's mistakes because they are in position for that mistake to make a difference. 

"We're down three, four runs, none of this matters," said Bochy. "When you are in a game like this, the idea is to put pressure on as much as you can. Force that other team to have to execute. The game is different this time of year. Everything is magnified." 

Even the pressure. 

There's so little margin for error in October. This is no longer that 162-game marathon. There's no second chance by grabbing a Wild Card spot to force your way into the postseason. The Giants have done that, but now the margin for error has been narrowed.

And:

"This time of year, there's not much room for error," said Bochy. 

And San Francisco isn't a team that is going to blast away, at least not so far this October. The Giants have hit only two home runs in this year's eight postseason games. 

"Believe me," said Bochy, "I love home runs. But it is all about execution. If you don't hit home runs, you better do the little things, which we do. You've got to keep the pressure on those other guys." 

Most of all, though, Bochy loves winning. 

The Giants keep finding a way to claim wins this postseason. 

It's not always pretty. 

"But," said Bochy, "there aren't any ugly wins."

And not just this postseason, but in 2010 and 2012 too.  The Giants keep the game close most of the time, with great pitching from their starters and, lately, in particular their relievers, plus stellar defense (or even so), keeping the other side from getting that extra run that they need to win, while holding the fort so that our offense can finally scratch out that extra run that we need.

As Crawford notes in the video accompanying this article (bunch of interview sound bites from many players, nice listen if you got time), the Giants play these games as if it was the regular season, and so they try to have fun.  If your guys are executing and performing, then it becomes a game of chicken between the teams where you wait for the weak link in the chain to break, whether Conrad in 2010 or Carpenter in 2012 or Choate 2014.  Much like that 18 inning game against the Nats, our relievers held the line until the Nats had to use a reliever who made a mistake pitch to Belt.

Miller's Crossing

There is an interesting article on Shelby Miller on Fangraphs.  It discusses how he seems to be throwing more high fastballs.  It also notes that whatever changes he has made, he has not really been that effective with it most of the year, until lately.

He pitched nicely against the Bridegrooms, though not great, giving up 3 walks in 5.2 IP, and only striking out 4, but giving up two runs.  So he continued to do OK, continuing his year end jump in performance noted in the article.  In fact, he was not that great until September, when his K/9 went up to 7.7 and K/BB jumped to 5.2 (from the poor under 2's he was putting up all year).

It appears that he got lucky in September.   His playoff start is more in line with the work he was doing earlier in the season:  less K, more BB, lousy K/BB.   He was also extremely lucky with the BABIP in September as well, low 200's.  Prior to September, he was pitching like a #4 starter, 4.19 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 1.49 K/BB.  And his FIP showed that, 4.54 vs. his 3.74 ERA, he's been lucky with the BABIP this season for the most part.

And his penchant for high fastballs intersects with two Giants players who will hit the high fastball, every now and again, into the seats:  Panda and Pence.  So those matchups will be interesting during today's game.

And beyond them, he's a guy a bit on the wild side generally, while not striking out a lot of guys, so our other hitters, like Blanco, Panik, Posey, Belt, Crawford, Ishikawa, they are guys who know how to take a walk, and a couple are good at avoiding the strikeouts too.   On top of that, LHH has the advantage over him, they get more hits, and hit for more power, while walking more and striking out less.   And Posey hits RHP as well as he does LHP.

VogelStrong

Meanwhile Vogie just set a record in playoff history by pitching five games and giving up only 1 run or less in each outing.  Hopefully the rest did him good still, unlike Hudson yesterday, who appeared to tire at the end there (in an interview, he said he was still strong; but everything is relative).   Looks to me that if Vogie can keep the Cards offense corralled again, Miller looks like a pinata waiting to explode into a bunch of runs at some point during the game, the Giants bats just need to keep the pressure on.

Hitters Weak

Don't know if the hitters are tired or the other teams been pitching well against them, but nobody on the team is hitting for much power.  Top ISO:  Crawford 138, Belt 120, nobody else is even over 100, Sandoval is next at 93 ISO.  And OPS, Oh Poy Sonny, only Belt has a good one, .949 OPS, Panda next at .728, Posey .684, Ishikawa .683, Panik .648.  Pretty anemic.  And the bench has not done too much so far (in particular Arias, he has actually played very little so far).

Somebody needs to pick the power up.  Posey is battling like he is tired, which he probably got after catching 18 innings in the second game against the Nats.  Both Panda and Pence look like they are just not getting lucky, both have good enough strikeout rate, while walking a fair amount too, which leads to a lot of BIP.

In fact, that is what this team has been doing, putting the ball in play.  Panik leads the bunch with only 1 K in 33 AB.  But most of the hitters are right in that optimal minimum range of 15-20% strikeouts, Belt (5 K's in 32 PA), Posey (only got 2 himself), Panda (6 K's in 35 PA), Pence (5/32), Blanco (2/36), Ishi (3/20).   Only Crawford is striking out a lot, 8 in 32 AB.

And everybody got at least 2-3 walks (a lot since most are in the 30-35 PA range), with Belt having 6 walks.   Given how good he is hitting and getting on base, maybe Bochy should move him up to batting second and make Panik the leadoff guy, because Blanco is not doing it, .125/.200/.125/.325.  That's largely bad BABIP (.133) but sometimes hitters make themselves like that.

But that's sometimes what the other teams pitchers make the hitters look like.  Miller appears to be a weak link in their rotation compared to the Giants.  Hopefully guys will knock the ball around against Miller and knock him out of the game early.

Your 2014 Giants: NLCS Game 2: You Gotta Like These Kids, But Just Remember the Growing Pains

My thoughts about game 2 of the NLCS.

ogc thoughts

To quote myself, I twittered:  "Sad we lost, but don't expect to win them all. Booing of closer could bear dividends later for us. Love the kids, also later factors too!"

You Gotta Like These Kids

The Kids executed the rally and make it all happen in the 9th.  Andrew Susac shows a veteran steeliness in coming into his first NLCS AB and knocking a single up the middle, getting a single with one out by a veteran, Crawford.  Matt Duffy pinch runs for him and advances to second when Juan Perez also singles.  Blanco lines out to SS, almost into a double play, but Duffy had the presence of mind to stay his motion, see the catch, and get back to second, safe, avoiding the double-play.  He noted in an interview that he had noted the SS's height earlier, and that thought came to him as he accelerated upon contact, which then stopped him in his tracks.  The TV announcers loved that!  Then Panik shows a veteran steeliness in working out a walk, after falling behind 0-2, and taking a very close pitch for a ball, before earning his walk.

That's when things got crazy fast.  Ball Four was about as wild a pitch as you'll ever see, especially from a closer like Rosenthal (though, wow, his stats were a lot worse as a closer in 2014 than as a set-up guy in 2013, though still very good;  but, for example, K/BB went from 5.40 to 2.07, where normally you want at least 2.4 from your closers and set-up men.  Duffy had a great jump off of second, and accelerated past third when he got the signal from the third base coach, Flannery.  He scored easily.  There is a great video of his running at this MLB website called Statcast:  Duffy Scoring on Wild Pitch (and watch the other videos, this is just amazing to see the data visually represented, and to learn how fast the players are running at).

Then Posey walked (the only vet to add anything to the rally) before Sandoval ended the rally by grounding out.

Uneasy Lies the Head That Wears the Closer's Crown:   MLB "Best" Fans Boo CLoser

I've heard a number of times how the Cards fans are among, if not the best, baseball fans around, but that don't jibe with them booing their closer in the middle of a tense, taunt game.  Rosenthal obviously didn't do well.  He was acting like a rookie, walking a guy he was up 0-2 on and wild pitching in the tying run.

But I just found out that he IS a rookie.  A rookie closer that is.  This is only his second full season of playing, and first as a closer, having been a reliever the previous season, pitching mostly 7th and 8th inning, except at the end when he got to save a bunch of games, it appears that they made him the closer near the end of the season.  Then they kept him as the closer in the 2013 playoffs, where he very well, not giving up one run at all.  He has given up 2 runs in 3.2 IP, for a 4.91 ERA, and it could be even worse as he has given up 7 hits and 3 walks, though striking out 5.  Last year:   11.2 IP, but only 4 hits and 3 walks, while striking out 18.

I wonder if that will pay dividends for the Giants later in the series.  He looked a bit unnerved yesterday.  It can't help that he was booed by the Card fans.  Last year, he went in with little expectations and was able to shut down everyone almost.  This season, his FIP went from a dominant 1.99 to an ordinary 2.99 (ERA from 2.63 to 3.24), while his K/BB fell from a superb 5.40 to an OK 2.07.

Sure, relievers suffer a lot from SSS because of the few innings they pitch, but pitching peripherals don't usually gyrate so much, especially from one extra to another.  He got wilder as a closer (5.4 BB/9) than as a key set-up man (2.4 BB/9), though he was able to keep his K/9  high still:  only fell from 12.9 K/9 to 11.1 K/9.  However, to his credit, the number of wild pitches fell from 6 to 4 in roughly the same number of IP.

Though, wow, his career BABIP is .320 and .334 during this two full seasons.  That would explain some of the hits he has given up so far, he appears to be more hittable than average pitchers, only his high velocity instead results in a lot of strikeouts and walks.  Again, I take this as a sign that he's not really as good as feared looking at his career numbers.

Oddly enough, he's much better against LHH than RHH in his short career so far.  Relieving makes it even more subject to SSS, so his RHH is much more believable, and given the above stats, leads me to believe that he'll regress to the mean at some point against LHH.

Peavy Fails Again To Get a DOM Playoff Start

As I've been saying, he has not ever had a DOM start in the playoffs.  In fact, he has had a number of disaster starts, and yesterday's was another one, though had he pitched one more IP, he would have had a 2 PQS and not a DIS start.  But I was not feeling too good about Bochy keeping him in there against the LHH Carpenter, who has shown a lot of power in the playoffs so far, especially with the bases loaded.  The game would have been out of reach if he hit anything for power.

I loved Peavy's performances for us in the season, but if this is how he performs in the playoffs, one, he should really be our 3rd or 4th starter (or even reliever, and start Petit instead).  And his performances so far is changing my mind about resigning him, especially for the big money contract that he probably wants.  I would rather have Vogie instead, any day, Vogie has been great in the playoffs.

In addition, Peavy was talking nicely about the Cards in an interview leading up to his start, about almost signing with them, and how good they are, and how he could end up with them as a free agent.  Really?  Just before we take them on?  I'm OK with fraternization but he could have demurred and say that he's concentrating on beating them right now.  So if they want him, as apparently they did previously, great, maybe we can give him a QO and get a draft pick out of him, as well as cost the Cards a first round pick.

Bullpen Usage

I am not sure why Affeldt was used so early in the game.  Does that mean Lincecum can't be trusted with pitching then?  And why not use Petit?  Are they saving him for one of the older pitchers?  Not sure why that was done.  Something to monitor going forward, as an oddity.

I still love Strickland.  This is hopefully just learning pains.  I really love everything he did in the minors.  Such high K/9 and K/BB are good indicators of a good major league pitcher.  But for now, I would lay off running him up against LHH with power.

I Was Off About a Seven Game Series Must Wins

I saw on twitter a good point:  this is now a five game series and the Giants play three at home.  Win two at home and one on the road, and we are in the World Series again.  So I guess I'll have to alter the conditions for a seven game series to not a must win for a team that wins Game 1 on the road, they don't have to win Game 2, they are still nicely set up for the rest of the series.

Games 3, 4, 5

So it's Hudson vs. Lackey in game 3, Vogelsong vs. Miller in game 4, and then a rematch in game 5, Bumgarner vs. Wainwright.

I view game 3 as the toughest of the three.  Hudson looks like he's OK now with rest and recuperation from whatever was ailing his body at the end of the season, as he was great against the Nats.  However, he is going up against Lackey, who has been good in the playoffs during his career.  A plus for Hudson is that this is his first NLCS game, so maybe he'll get an extra shot of adrenaline (but not too much) and have another great start.   It could go either way.

Game 4 is hopefully the easiest of the three.  Vogie was great after benefiting from rest, after ending the season on the downside.  As I noted in the other post, he has a lot of rest again for this start as well.  On top of that Miller has not been very good in the playoffs thus far, though doable in his last start (3 PQS).   He is vulnerable to LHH, and has pitched much worse on the road during his career, though OK in his only start in AT&T.

Wainwright says that he is OK for Game 5, which, if he's as good as he was in Game 1, Bumgarner might have an easy night, as well as the Giants.  But never bet against aces, maybe he really is feeling better.  But with two potentially tough games, we should win one of those games, and one that is hopefully easier to win, that would give us two of three at home, only needing to win one in St. Louis.

Your 2014 Giants: NLCS Game 1: Stronger Together

I'm not going to write after every game, but just felt the muse.  I mostly watched the game, but caught the beginning by radio.  Obviously, they won 3-0 and lead the series 1-0.  Must win tomorrow with Peavy going for us against Lynn.  Will be interesting to see which pitcher implode as they both had did in previous years or can bring up a gem (Lynn did against LA, Peavy is still looking for his first post-season gem).

Your 2014 Giants: NLCS Round: Cardinals

My thoughts on the Giants in the NLCS against the Cards.

Your 2012 Giants ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES! EPIC!

The Giants completed an EPIC comeback in the NLCS, coming back from being down 3-1 in a seven game series and beating the Cards 9-0, behind the stout pitching of Matt Cain, 4 PQS DOM start (one out away from a third 5 PQS start by Giants starters, he clearly yelled "NO!" when Bochy came out, and he most likely would have been given the chance to do that by Bochy if 1) the Giants weren't leading by 7-0, 2) Cain was already at 102 pitches, and 3) Bochy wants to save Cain for the World Series).

He continued a streak of three DOM starts by the Giants starting pitchers, and they had DOM starts in 5 of the 7 games, a stark and necessary change from their 1 DOM start in 5 games in the NLDS against the Reds.  They should not have been put into the position of needing to win the last three games, they outpitched the Cards by PQS in 5 of the 7 games, but the win by Lohse in game 3 made it necessary.  And  Cain delivered like he did in the 2010 playoffs, shutting out the Cards, winning easily.

Of course, it helped greatly that the Giants scored runs in their first three innings, including 5 in the third to take a 7-0 lead, with Pence delivering a key hit, driving in two of the runs, and ended the day with 2 hits.  Belt belted one deep into the RF stands for a homer and 9-0 lead.

They are the first team since the 1985 Royals to come back in two series down by two games and winning three straight to win each series.  They are the only two teams to do that since the MLB expanded the playoffs to four teams in both leagues in 1969.

And, in any case, any way you write it, winning six straight elimination games like that is EPIC no matter how many or little teams in the past have done that.  It takes a lot of cujones to do that, and Posey and Cain, to me, are the leaders who instills this sense in the team that anything is possible.  After all, it was the two of them talking at the celebration parade about returning to the World Series and winning it again.  It was Cain who earlier this season exhorted his teammates: "Here, I'm going to keep battling for you. You keep battling for me."  The Giants have been 85-56 since Cain made that statement, and won the NL Championship and earned another trip to the World Series.

Finally, it was very fitting that Holliday popped up to Scutaro for the last out.  His dirty slide really pissed off the Giants, particularly Scutaro, who did not hit well against the Reds.

Also, Marco Scutaro won the NLCS Most Valuable Player Award for his stellar hitting, 14 hits in total in the  NLCS, 6 runs scored, 4 RBI, and he struck out only one time in 27 AB, he had 2 walks.  He's the second consecutive late season pickup to win the NLCS for us, Cody Ross being the other one.  Speaking of Ross, Marco tied Ross's team record of hits in 10 straight games.

This is the 19th time the Giants have gotten to the World Series, second only to the Yankees.  They get home advantage because the NL won the All-Star game

To quote Shankbone and repeat the sentiments, "The Giants Win the Pennant!"

As I've been saying for a number of years now:  The Giants are the Team of the 2010 Decade.

Go Giants!  Win it again!

Your 2012 Giants: Game 7 of the NLCS

Wow!  When your team is against their backs by a lot, all you can really hope for is that they win the next game and live to see another day.  That was true for the Giants in Cincy, that was true now.  Yet here we are, tied 3-3 in the 2012 NLCS, now with both teams against the backs, and the Giants one win away from a historical, epic playoff run to the World Series.

Momentum is truly on the Giants side plus they are playing at home.  In fact, 13 of the 14 teams to force a Game 7 has won that game.  However, as we know, the Cards have been pushed to the brink themselves and have come up big before, first winning their playoff play-in game against Atlanta in Atlanta, then wins the NLDS even though they were behind 6-0, coming up with the improbable win against the Nationals.  So here we are with two teams that has both beaten the immense odds over and over again, but in this game, one will continue to claim divine providence, while the other will be left wondering how it could have gone so wrong at the last moment.

Your 2012 Giants: Game 6 of the NLCS

Wow, now that was ALL-TIME EPICNESS!  Barry Zito going 7.2 shutout innings, racking up a 5 PQS DOM start for us, the first in the playoffs for the Giants, and it was Zeets delivering!  That is a huge paydown on what he has owed us from his big contract, and it was so exciting listening to the game.  What an epic start!  I think that was his first 5 PQS start since the 2003 playoffs, almost ten years later.

And Brandon Crawford delivered another key hit for us.  True, it was not the first and winning run, but at that point, a 1-0 lead is nothing against their tough team, but his working the count and getting the pitch he wanted extended the lead to a more sturdy 3-0 and allowed Zito - who had his FIRST EVER bunt single in his career - drive in another run, for a strong 4-0 lead, given how Zito was pitching.  After that, Zito was 3 up and 3 downing them.  Crawford has shown a lot in these playoffs, that is one clear lesson of these playoffs, he's going to be a guy we can rely on in tough situations, offensively as well as defensively.  Thank goodness he had that down Junior year, else another team would have drafted him in the first round, as he was projected to go, instead of back in the 4th round where the Giants got him.

And Sandoval's homer - second in two games - sealed the deal at 5-0.  I can't believe I saw some people want to sit Sandoval down in order to play Arias.

As a contrast in managerial style, a couple of years ago, in the same situation, Bochy told his team not to pack just in case and they won.  In this game, Matheny told his team to pack just in case they needed to get to SF.  That might have subconsciously affected the team - the manager isn't confident that we can beat Zito and the Giants and not have to travel back to SF.  Or maybe not, either way, we WON!!!

Your 2012 Giants: Game 5 of the NLCS

Wow, Zito gets an NLCS start.  Before the start of this series, it was a toss-up between starting Lincecum or Zito in Game 4.  Instead, Bumgarner pitches his way out of the rotation - he says that he has fixed something mechanically that is off, but now need to "form a habit" (i.e. make it like breathing in and out so that he won't need to find it during a game) - and Lincecum and Zito will start consecutively instead of either/or.

But with Lincecum's DIS start, Zito's story becomes that much more magnified because the Giants are on the brink of elimination - again - and our 2012 fates rests on the last starting pitcher that most Giants fans would least like to see starting in this elimination game.  Will he finally give us the big dividend we were hoping to get when we first signed him.  Will it be like how the Renteria story went in 2010?  Will he be able to heed Reverend Hunter's exhortations to see each other tomorrow, to play again together tomorrow?  Because, you know, together we're Giants.

That's the $126M question.

Your 2012 Giants: Game 4 of the NLCS

Wow, Cain pitched a DOM game and Lohse had a DIS game, and we still lost.  Based on PQS, we should be ahead 2-1, not behind 1-2:  that's baseball.  My study of PQS found that generally the team with better starting pitching generally won the game, generally won the series, but as we all know, BABIP can really help some teams and hurt other teams.  And we got hurt, both ways, in yesterday's game.

Looking at the ER, one might have thought the opposition about the two starters.  When Lohse needed to quell an uprising, he did, while Cain made the wrong pitch to the wrong batter, but was otherwise superb.  Take that pitch and result out, and it's still tied 1-1, bottom of the ninth.  Add a key hit in almost any inning, and the Giants win.

Coincidentally, this is reminiscent of the first game with the Reds, when Cueto went down:  when Beltran went down with his knee injury, I thought, alright, that improves our chances, then when I found out it was Carpenter taking over, I got all worried before he was 4 for 4 against Cain during his career, and worried that might be the key to the game.  And like Cueto going down, Beltran going down helped our opponent, rather than helped us.  But if he's out for the series - no news yet, but it sounds like it is not that serious, day to day, but it has been something bothering him all season, so who knows - Carpenter's very, very, very, very poor defense in RF should hurt them at some point.  He could be the Brooks Conrad of this series.

I happened to be able to see the last part of the game on TV and when I saw Carpenter, I couldn't believe how puny looking he looks (wow, TV sure does shrink people, he's 6' 3" and 200 lb according to baseball-reference.com; he looked like this slim guy on TV), and yet he took Cain yard.  As much as I want to blame the offense for not doing more with all the hits and walks they produced, Cain should also take blame for letting this slight of build non-homerun hitter - he only had 6 HR in 296 AB during the season - beat us.  He wasn't even that good a prospect in the minors, old for the league, didn't hit for that much power, struck out a little too much, but did walk a ton, he's a Moneyball type hitter in that way.

Your 2012 Giants: Game 3 of the NLCS

The series now move to St. Louis and their pitching oriented ballpark.  Vogelsong is our ace of the playoffs, that's two DOM starts from him, and nobody else has even one.  He gave us our first 7.0 IP start, giving up only 4 hits and 2 walks, striking out 4, giving up only 1 run/ER.  That is a 4 PQS DOM start.

Still, you can't win a well-pitched game without some offense.  And the Cards woke up the Giants when Matt "Take a" Holliday rolls into 2B, taking out Scutaro with a legal but nasty slide.  For a while, it was not sure if we had lost Scutaro.  But he came back, and that might have inspired the team or also the fact that Holliday pulled that dirty move, as first Pagan hit that lead-off homer (second in the playoffs) the team scored four runs in the bottom of the 4th, with Scutaro getting the key hit, driving in two runs, with a third run coming in on Holliday's fielding error.  Later, Scutaro had to leave the game and his replacement, Theriot, formerly a Cardinal last season, singled to drive in two more runs for a 7-1 lead, which was the final score.  Both Affeldt and Romo pitched one inning and shut out the Cards.

Your 2012 Giants: Game 2 of the NLCS

Wow, couldn't call it any better than that:  both teams were mostly shut down offensively, but when the runs came, they poured, as the Cards had uprisings of 2 runs and 4 runs, then the Giants matched the 4 runs, but never could get across another run, losing game 1 to the Cards, 6-4.  My only question was why wasn't Bumgarner taken out earlier, that was ultimately the difference there.  I don't have my dauber down, based on what I saw with their pitching, it just looked like a tough series. But as Vogie noted, they don't want to be coming back from down 0-2 all the time, as that is a tough row to hoe.

Your 2012 Giants: Game 1 of the NLCS

Wow, isn't baseball amazing?  Every game, you see the same old, same old, but in spite of how long the history is, there will always be something new - or something Epic -  under the sun.  What a contrast the two game 5's were for the two teams:  the Giants took a seemingly commanding 6 run lead and unfortunately for the Reds, they ran out of innings to catch up, while the Nats took a seemingly commanding 6 run lead and unfortunately for themselves, the Cards had just enough innings to catch up.

Your 2012 Giants: NLCS Rosterbation

I might be jumping the gun here, since we don't even know who the Giants opponent is yet, but I thought I would run by some thoughts on the possible roster for the NLCS.  At minimum, I wanted to show off this picture that the Giants are putting on-line at their Facebook page.  Nice, huh?

Your 2010 Giants are The CHAMPIONS OF THE NATIONAL LEAGUE

THE GIANTS ARE GOING TO THE WORLD SERIES!!!

WOW, what a game!  I was in suspense the whole way, down to the last out, the last strike.  But I never felt like we were going to lose, unlike, say, game 7 when Livan gave up all those hits.  I was buoyed by Bochy pulling Sanchez so quickly, I was very impressed, and thought that we were going to have a good chance to win, but whether we win or not, who knew, and I felt pretty good once we tied them.

Bochy's Da Man

This gets back to my post a couple of days ago about how Bochy is the right manager to lead us to the World Series Championship that all of us Giants fans have been waiting for.  Contrast Bochy taking Sanchez out in the third with Dusty leaving Livan in there in Game 7 when you just knew that he was going to give up the big hit and put us deep in the hole.

By taking out Sanchez, it also showed that an advantage Bochy had over Manuel, he had a full deep bullpen he could go to for a bullpen game, whereas Oswalt was struggling all night but Manuel had to stick by him.  It worked out with Oswalt, but after the Giants extended Madsen in the 7th, Manuel had to stick with Madsen in the 8th, and Uribe got his homer!

Co-Dy!

Cody Ross, of course, was named the NLCS MVP, after his great performance, hitting all those key homers, as well as hits later, that helped the Giants score key runs that led to wins.   Well done Cody, thanks for all the great hitting so far, hopefully it will continue in the World Series.

2010 World Series

This is the 18th time the Giants will go to the World Series as a franchise, which they have won five times, but as we know, they have not won yet in San Francisco.  They will face the Rangers, who are there for the first time.  The Giants get home advantage, so the series will start on Wednesday in San Francisco.  

I think the Giants are in good shape to win the World Series.  Very importantly, the Giants get home advantage.  That will give them an extra edge in a series that will probably be tight and close, as the Rangers have a good rotation themselves.

The Giants pitchers have been amazing for the most part, and I expect Lincecum and Cain to continue to do well.  I hope Sanchez can get over his emotions, but after this game, I think they can be fine with our bullpen, led by the amazing Brian Wilson.  

In addition, the hitting is starting to get over their jitters.  Torres and Sanchez are heating up, and the Giants had numerous opportunities today, and I think they will convert more against the Rangers, who does not have as good a middle bullpen as the Giants did.  For all the complaints people made about getting those relievers, particularly since we lost Bowker and Martinez, we probably would not have won the NL West, NLDS, or NLCS without Lopez or Ramirez.  

A big wildcard is how much advantage the Rangers have with Bengie Molina on their team.  He obviously knows our pitchers and probably knows the weaknesses of some of the hitters.  However, the pitchers is not just their pitches, but also how they mix it up.  And clearly Posey has a better formula than Molina did, with how the pitchers have been pitching since early September and continuing into the playoffs, the Giants have continued to keep the opposition from scoring more than 3 runs.   And that has been leading to wins, a lot of wins.  And is it one thing to prepare your hitters on what to expect, but they have to stand in the batter's box and execute, and that will be hard to execute, I think.

Another Vet Paying Off

Like Renteria giving Cody Ross a big tip, Mark DeRosa passed to Jonathan Sanchez a tip that he picked up from Glavine - about holding his hands before throwing - that allowed Sanchez to go on his great stretch of great pitching in September and to now.  I believe I read that in the SJ Mercury.  Given how well Sanchez did, I would say that DeRosa earned his $6M salary with that tip.  Now up to Rowand to give a tip to someone!  :^)

Go Giants!  Let's do it!

Your 2010 Giants are 3-2 in the NLCS: Need to Split

We knew that it wouldn't be easy.  These are the two-straight NLCS champion Phillies looking to make history by winning a third straight.  Although Halladay strained his groin in the second inning and did not have his sinker (KNBR this morning), he's a great pitcher so it is not like it would be easy in any case.  And, as I noted in my post, how often can the Giants score 4-5 runs off Halladay?  He's a great pitcher, he'll eventually figure it out against an offensively challenged team.

Some headlines state that Halladay "outdueled" Lincecum, but really, Lincecum outdueled Halladay, it is just that Lincecum's defense let him down and cost him the game.  If Sandoval's foot had found 3B (a ballplayer said that was a tough play, to be fair) or Huff didn't muff that grounder, the Phillies don't score 3 runs that inning, probably either 0 or 1 at most.  Or even Lincecum hitting Ruiz with 1-2 count?  That leaves the game either tied 2-2 or Giants win 2-1.  And what was with that call anyway, Ruiz didn't even try to get out of the pitch's path, according to the radio reports.

Bochy has already announced that this is not necessarily the last we have seen of Lincecum in this series.  All hands are on deck (another reason I like Bochy now for leading these Giants), something he mentioned yesterday when saying that all the relievers would be available for yesterday's game.  I assume Bumgarner might see some LOOGY action at some point himself.

FYI, the game time will depend on the results of the Yankees-Rangers game tonight.  If the Yankees win, it would be 1PM, as the Yankees would still be alive and get the night game slot.  If the Rangers win and advance to the World Series, it would be 5PM because, well, they have no other game to play in the timeslot.

Game 6:  Oswalt vs. Sanchez

Same matchup as Game 2.  Nothing much more to note, other than Oswalt had to pitch on Wednesday and was raked, and while they say that this will not affect him in this start, you have to think that this affected him in some way.  And, as I noted, the hitters are starting to wake up, Torres and Franchez had 2 hits yesterday, Co-Dy! had another hit, Sandoval had a hit.  I think it should be another good battle, but would note that Sanchez stepped up when the Giants needed him to and delivered a great start in the last start against San Diego, so my fingers are crossed for that to happen.

The Giants are still in great shape, they are up 3-2, and they only need to win one of the next two on the road.  But as one reporter noted, the Giants faced such a situation twice before - St. Lou and Anaheim - and it did not end well for them those two times.  Besides the fact that it was a totally different set of players each time and thus has no connection other than the team name on the front, a sample of two is not exactly a statistically significant sample.  Else Willie Mays would never had his HoF career after going 0 for like 20 to start his career.

This is not much different from what they have been doing for the past almost four months, and particularly since September started.  Just like how Halladay reversed things for the Phillies and winning his matchup this time, Sanchez could do the same for the Giants this time against Oswalt.  And as noted, Oswalt was very hittable in his relief appearance, after the Giants bats had awoken, so this game will be very interesting to see if that was an aberration or a view of things to come.

Go Giants!

Your 2010 Giants are 3-1 in NLCS: Just One More!

What can I say?  What a great season so far, and it looks like it'll be continuing on for a while longer, if the fates allow.

Here are some great Twitter tidbits from Jeff Fletcher (@JeffFletcherAOL) that I wanted to share before they disappear into the Twit-ether:

• In MLB postseason history, teams leading 3-1 have .514 win pct in Game 5 (37-35). They have won the series 84.7 pct (61-11).
• Actually, that previous stat doesn't include the Yankees winning 5 yesterday, so the leading teams only 37-36 in Game 5.
• Teams up 3-1 at home in Game 5 are 17-17, on the road 20-19. (To win series, 29-5 and 32-6).

So the Giants are in pretty good shape for getting into the World Series, they just need to win one of the next three games, but remember, the Giants faced the exact same situation against the 'Dres and lost two before sealing the deal in the third game.  So there can be a lot to go through before we reach the next round.

Game 5:  Doc Halladay vs. Lincecum

Don't have much to add to what I wrote about before.

Will be interesting how Halladay reacts to this start, which arguably is the most important ever in his career/life.   Being the vet he is, his no-hitter start is not a surprise other than it was a no-hitter, which are never predictable.  There was really no pressure, if you lose it is not great, but it's not the end of the world either, so you can be more relaxed about the game.  Similarly, there was not as much pressure in his second start, against the Giants, it being the first game of the series too.

However, obviously, this being the second round and with the victor heading to the World Series, there was definitely more pressure than he experienced in his first playoff start.  And he did not have a good game, though those 4 ER he gave up was the least he has ever given up in a start against the Giants (5 ER in his prior 3 starts).  And overall, if not for the homers he gave up to Ross, he pretty much dominated the Giants, he was not that far off (3 PQS but remove one HR and it would be a 5 PQS start).

So how will he react in this, his first do-or-die start in the playoffs?  Will he rise to the occasion?  Or do the Giants just hit in a way that gives Halladay fits?

I think he will have trouble.  Ross is in a zone where he can hit any pitch for a hit.  He says that he is going to be able to combat him with some new tricks up his sleeve.  But now there is Posey, Huff, Sandoval, and maybe Torres to contend with too.

The four of them contributed big runs that helped the Giants win last night.  Will Halladay be able to handle all of them?  Particularly Sandoval, who was hitting line drives last night, and we know that he's capable of launching normally good "pitcher's pitches" into the stands.  Then there are the players who have hit Halladay before, like Burrell.

Lincecum sounds like he's ready to rumble.  Nice article in SJ Mercury on that.  With no real pressure other than wanting the sweet satisfaction of putting the Giants into the World Series and the greater satisfaction of getting to celebrate with the Giants fans in the stands, Lincecum should be loose and ready to pitch the game of his life.

Giants vs. Halladay

Bill James Daily Match-Up Stats for today:

Burrell:  10-24, BB, 8 K
Fontenot:  1-9, K
Huff:  19-72, 5 BB, 13 K (wow, no HR!)
Posey:  2-6, 4 K
Renteria:  4-11, 2 K
Ross:  7-22, 4 HR, 2 K (Ownage!)
Rowand:  1-3
Franchez:  1-11, 3 K (reverse ownage)
Sandoval:  2-4
Schierholtz:  0-3
Torres:  3-15, 3 K (could be due!)
Uribe:  6-24, 6 K

Giants Thoughts

The Giants, obviously, is in great shape to get into the World Series.  They just need to win one game in the next three, albeit three against the mighty Phillies, twice-in-row NLCS champs, and facing Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels, three of the best pitchers in the majors.  Luckily, we have Lincecum, Sanchez, and Cain, likewise three of the best pitchers in the majors, going against them, and our offense is waking up, which would be just in time too, the pitching can't carry the team forever, it is time for the offense to contribute too.  And they did yesterday.

The hitters have to show up again today.  Luckily, the Giants have hit Halladay well this season, in two games; that's also unlucky, because he's a great pitcher and you have to doubt that a team, particularly an offensively challenged team like the Giants, could score 4-5 runs off him and beat him a third time in the season.  Still, at almost any point this season, you would have to doubt that the Giants would reach 3-1 in the NLCS, so sometimes dreams do come true.

Go Giants!  Finish off the Phillies at home and celebrate with the great Giants fans!

Your 2010 Giants are 2-1 in the NLCS: MadBum Rush the Phillies

It was tweeted by Jeff Fletcher of AOL that teams with a 2-1 lead in a 7 game series have won 30 of the 40 playoff series.  So the Giants are in a very good position from this history.  However, I would also note that this means that 25% of the time, this team has lost the series.  So it is not a gimmee, there is still a significant chance that the Phillies could roar back.

However, as I noted in my original series blog post, Madison Bumgarner, he of 1.13 ERA in last month of season and the steely nerves of a veteran player twice his age, is going for us against Joe Blanton, who had horrible stats for the season, which looked like a gimmee.  But it is not as easy as I once thought.

Game 4:  Joe Blanton vs. Bumgarner

Shame on me for looking at just his surface seasonal stats:  Joe Blanton has been on a huge roll since the All-Star break.  3.48 ERA overall, 3.33 ERA in his 15 starts (hat tip to KNBR for noting his great performance at the end).  10 DOM starts and only 2 DIS starts in those 15 starts, excellent numbers if kept up over a full season.  He won't be as much of a gimme as I thought in my original post.

If there is any consolation, most of his 5 non-DOM starts (4), happened in his last 10 starts, and both DIS starts happened then.  He did man up, however, and delivered four 5 PQS starts in his last six starts.  Basically he hit his bad patch in August but was great in September.  That is the exact opposite of what he has done in his career, he's usually good in August and horrible in September.

However, his last start was on September 29th and October 3rd is the last time he pitched in an actual game, 16 days of rest since his relief appearance, and he did not do well in that game, 1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, BB, and one of the hits were a homer.  And he has not done well with extra rest, interestingly enough:

4 days rest:  3.83 ERA (104 starts)
5 days rest:  4.80 ERA (64 starts)
6+ days rest: 4.97 ERA (22 starts)

Basically, when he don't get exactly 4 days rest, he gets rusty a lot, one day alone has made a huge difference, almost a run more, and he has pitched in a significant number of games in 5+ days rest situations to suggest that this is not a fluke.

And, also interestingly enough, he has built his career on keeping LHH down, he is not even that great against RHH.  The batting line for LHH is worse than for RHH:

LHH:  .267/.320/.406/.726
RHH:  .278/.325/.440/.764

So the Giants will be facing a very tough opponent, who should be thoroughly rested, though possibly rusty.  The Giants might need to capitalize on that rustiness early in the game, to knock him out before he finds his strike, and get into a good groove.  For some reason, RHH can hit Blanton for extra power, could be our key to winning today, as we will have Burrell, Ross, and Posey in there, plus Franchez and probably Uribe. If he had that batting line for RHH and the usual platoon advantage that LHH would have on him, he would not be a major league pitcher today, he's probably a AAAA pitcher bouncing up and down to fill in a rotation spot.

Giants Hitters Vs. Blanton

Bill James matchup report shows that the Giants hitters don't have a great history against Blanton.  Some key names and numbers:

Burrell:  3-12, 3 HR, BB, 5 K
Fontenot:  2-9
Huff:  4-20, BB, 2 K (due for hits, low BABIP)
Ishikawa:  3-4, K
Posey:  1-3, K
Renteria:  0-3
Ross:  3-11, 1 HR, 6 K though
Rowand:  2-4
Franchez:  2-7, K
Sandoval:  0-6, K
Torres:  1-3, HR, K
Uribe:  1-11, 3 K

Sandoval Need to Step:  Could be Ready to Step Up

The speculation among the Giants beat writers is that Sandoval will get a shot at Blanton.  Obviously, his numbers are not good, but that was probably half in August when Pablo was not doing well.  Of course, he hasn't been doing well recently either, but drew a walk in his last PH assignment, so I think he might be ready to contribute.  I think for the Giants to win this series and hopefully win the World Series, Sandoval is among the key players who needs to heat up NOW.  We cannot rely on Cody Ross to carry us all the way through (though if he's capable of that, all the better :^)  (Just saw a tweeted factoid:  apparently Ross was also claimed by the Phillies but the Giants got him because they had a worse record;  funny how fate works!).  Sandoval is in today's lineup.

Other key guys are the usual suspects that we all can name, pretty much our whole lineup, really:  Torres, Posey, Huff, Burrell, Uribe.  For our long-term benefits, I really want Posey or Sandoval to take the lead, we've seen Posey do it during the season, so we know we have it in him (maybe next year he can be like Will Clark and take over a series), but Sandoval we are still learning, his ups and downs this season has put a lot of doubt in people's minds (not in mind, though), so it would be nice if he started blasting balls out like he does when he's zoned in.

Given that Sandoval was patient enough to battle for 7 pitches, 3 of which were strikes, to take a walk in a situation where we needed every base runner we could get (down 6-1), where someone might be tempted to hit a 6-run homer with the bases empty, he was able to hold back, take the balls given him, foul off the third strike, I have to think that he is now not swinging at everything hoping to connect, like he was the first two games, his first two playoff games, he might be ready to Kung Fu the ball.

If we had a functioning Kung Fu Panda, that would put pressure on the opposing pitchers and give our other hitters better pitches as well, particularly if he confounds the pitchers by hitting good pitches for line-drive hits (much like how Ross has been doing that so far).  A Pandoval would also, as Bochy likes to say, keep the line moving, much like they did yesterday to score two runs.  And the occasional homer would help as well.

Torres Could be Key But Not Today

There has been a lot of stats noting how important it is for a team to score first, and the key for the Giants to score first in 2010 has been Andres Torres.  Bochy said specifically that he was resting Torres yesterday so that he can regain his focus, but still kept him out of today's lineup.  Torres also mentioned some problems with his ADD medicine but that he's got that fixed now, though maybe not enough for Bochy's tastes.

If he can return to his 2009-10 goodness, that would obviously be a huge plus for our offense, particularly if he contributes a homer here and there.  I think he's going to be ready as well, assuming that ADD med problem was a big part of his struggles.  But obviously we won't find out today.

Getting Bumgarner the lead early would allow him to be aggressive in going after hitters.  Our pitchers seem to gain an advantage when they get the lead, they have been very successful when given the lead.  Hence the need for our offense to wake up, but with no Torres, have to hope Renteria and Sanchez up top can do something for Huff, Posey, Burrell, Ross to drive in.  Sandoval is batting 7th and Rowand 8th.   Rowand says that he's really strong right now, it would be great if he catches on fire, but he struck out twice yesterday.  Have to assume the line drive double makes Bochy thinks he is in his groove, Bochy unfortunately has seen Rowand at his best and worse the past few seasons, hopefully he can tell when Rowand is on or not.