On Your Mark: 2011 Free Agent Season

With the World Series over, after a inspiring Cards win, showing you should never give up (or an agonizing Rangers loss, coming within a strike, twice, of winning it all), free agency has officially begun in earnest.  The Giants started things out by signing Javier Lopez to a two year, $8.5M contract and picking up Jeremy Affeldt's $5M option (nice DrB discussion and commenting here, including moi).

The Chronicle's John Shea wrote an article on "SF Giants Need to Sign Carlos Beltran".  While I love getting offense, I don't see that the Giants NEED to sign Beltran.  What they need to do this off-season is get Lincecum and Cain signed to long-term deals, buying out their free agent years.  Next level of priority is signing Posey and Sandoval to long-term deals.  And it would be nice to sign Madison Bumgarner to a long-term contract as well.

But if Giants ownership do open up their pursestrings and sign Beltran (which would be ironic since apparently that is part of the reason why Neukom was forced out, his eagerness to spend the windfall money that came out of the World Championship), I would have to think that the Giants become the presumptive team to beat for the 2012 season, assuming that Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez return to the lineup doing what we think they can do for us.

But even if we do not, with our great pitching, returning such good hitters to our lineup will do wonders for our offense, particularly paired up with a slugging Sandoval.  We can win with that.  Any nice hitting by Aubrey Huff would then be the whip cream on top (hate those cheeries...).  We can still win with our offense as is as long as our pitcher is as good as it has been, though, like 2011, it would not be a sure thing (but few things are in life).

Of course, we still need a CF and SS.  I think Brandon Crawford is ready enough for us to go with him as the starter at SS.  His defense, while not UZR friendly (he was only 8.2 UZR/150; most fans think he's at least worth 2 wins or 20 UZR/150), is still pretty good, and batting 8th, he doesn't have to hit for much to be valuable to the Giants in the lineup.  His nice run in September, and now in AFL, suggests that he can get a good streak going sometimes; now he has to do it over a full season.  Because of the tight payroll, and particularly if the Giants do sign Beltran, I think it is a no-brainer to start Crawford at SS, first, because he should be good enough to start, and almost just as important, he's majorly cheap to pay.  Wouldn't mind getting Rollins, but not at the 5 years he wants or the big money he wants (more than Renteria got from us).

For CF, while not ideal, I think either Coco Crisp or David DeJesus would be OK for us atop our lineup.  Crisp is the more classic leadoff hitter except that he can't get on base, DeJesus has a great OBP but not enough speed to steal bases with, though enough to play CF in prior seasons.  1 season, 2 tops, no more than
$5M per, particularly Crisp who is injured so often.

Ideally, if Beltran could still play CF, that would be best for us, at least in 2012.  Unfortunately, his defense was pretty bad there the last two seasons he played there.  However, he was even worse in RF in 2011, so given his great offensive performance is worth even more in CF while he provides "better" (relative to RF) defense in CF, maybe he can play CF for us, with Nate Schierholtz perhaps helping him in the RF alley.

Then we would not need to sign a CF free agent, let Andres Torres and Brandon Belt fight it out for LF.  Whoever wins can be the leadoff hitter, as Belt actually ran well in the minors and typically gets on base a lot too.  His power would be a little wasted there, but that is where we need him in 2012 should he win LF.  Also, I would probably put Belt in AAA should Torres win, better to give him regular starts than sit on the bench, at least in early 2012.

Sabean also hinted at an upgrade at backup C for 2012, with the thought that Posey probably will not be able to play a full season at catcher due to his recovery, so he might sign a vet there.  I lobbied for Jose Molina previously because he's an excellent defensive catcher who knows how to handle pitchers really well (Fielding Bible II metric had him best during study period) but he's not much of a hitter.  Not sure who else is available, not really something to worry about either, though I would lobby for Stewart to keep the backup job, his batting discipline is actually pretty good, he could be one of those late developing catchers who figures out how to hit in his 30's (I think he was 29 last season).

I was also hoping that the Giants could somehow fit Mark DeRosa on the bench and sign him.  He can play so many positions (and well defensively) and he should finally be healthy in 2012.  He hit well for us at the end too.  But he wants to be back near home so if anyone on the east coast and particularly south offers him a job, he will probably take it.

Even if we don't get him, we probably only have two spots open for MI on the bench (backup catcher, probably Brett Pill, and backup OF, Torres if Belt wins).  The Giants probably have to have a reliable vet as backup SS, so Mike Fontenot probably got one position, unless the Giants can pick off a better SS for cheap in January.  That leaves only one spot and we have two players who we will lose if they don't win a spot, Emmanuel Burriss and Conor Gillaspie.  I think Burris has the best chance of winning that spot, since Gillaspie can't really play defense at any position (he's probably going to get traded to an AL team or released) and Burriss can play SS and can play 2B really well.  But if we lose both it won't be a huge loss either, if the Giants can pick up a nice backup SS free agent who got left without a spot on another team.

Your 2011 Giants are 10-8: Home Respite v. Braves

After one inning - if a season were innings, one inning is represented by 18 games - the Giants are in good shape, basically at a 90-72 pace.  But, of course, there is still a lot to be played.

That's why I find it so disappointing to see Giants fans still out there all mad and everything:  chill everyone, the Giants are the World Champs and were put together by Brian Sabean and run by Bruce Bochy.  And if you think they were lucky they won, well, if you are complaining about them now, I am sure if I went back and tracked every comment made by you, you would have traded one of the pitchers away already, and for less than a sack of magic beans (Alexis Rios, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, among the most common I've seen) and the Giants definitely would not have won had they traded away any of that luscious pitching.

And really, why the long faces, especially after going 4-2 on the start of a brutal stretch of 16 road games in 19 games, winning both series.  Sure, could have actually swept both series, but the Giants did good, really they did.

Now they get to face the Braves for 3 at home, for a short respite, before heading on the road for 10 games.  Though they probably won't face Brooks Conrad, their new manager hasn't been starting him and it would be kind of cruel to give him his first start against the Giants.  Though I suppose it would be a big vote of confidence too, if you look at it another way.  But if he made another mistake, I wonder what the emotional scars on that one would be.

Game 1:  Bumgarner vs. Hanson

Tommy Hanson:  Hanson has been more consistent than he was in his first two starts, but has encountered early-inning troubles in each of his three losses. He recorded nine strikeouts Sunday after registering eight in his first three starts combined.

Madison Bumgarner:  Bumgarner may have turned a corner in his last start at Arizona. He allowed four runs in five innings, but recovered to last 6 2/3 innings. Despite exceeding his career high for innings by over 70 last year, the Giants feel good about his health.

Hanson is probably why the Giants decided to go with Bumgarner instead of Ryan Vogelsong: why feed him to the Braves for his first triumphant return as a starter with the team he wanted to be with?  Instead, with an off day before and after the series, he gets an easier assignment against the Pirates instead, though Bochy has not indicated yet whether Vogelsong will simply take Zito's spot or if he will move Bumgarner into the #4 spot.  But as I noted in my other post, I liked the way the pitchers fell if the Giants keep the pitchers in their order with Vogelsong taking Barry Zito's spot, would have put our better pitchers up against Colorado in future series.

Speaking of Zito, the word is that the sprain of his foot is pretty bad and he will be out at least a month and I saw one mention of up to two months.  Bochy also noted that it is probably for the better because Zito has not been throwing with much velocity (low-to-mid 80's) for his fastball since the accident and now Zito is forced to relax and recover from the shock of that car accident.

Atlanta has been struggling, off to an 8-12 start, so good time to run into them, they should be tough all season with their pitching.  Their new rookie phenom, Freddie Freeman is off to the good start Giants fans were hoping for Brandon Belt, but their 2010 version, Jason Heyward, has been pretty cold, though he's walking a lot and hitting with power.  Their big acquisition, Dan Uggla, has not been hitting at all, worse OPS of their lineup currently.

And that has been the source of their problems, their offense, as their pitching has been as advertised, if not better.  And it should not get better against the Giants, facing Bumgarner, Lincecum, Sanchez.  They should not be scoring a lot of runs this series.

But their pitching is what will keep them in most games.  This is a good battle this game, Madison Bumgarner is like Tommy Hanson, only one year behind.  Both are tall (Hanson 6' 6"; Bumgarner 6' 5") and oddly enough, on how life can twist, Hanson went to high school in California while Bumgarner went to high school in North Carolina, each raised near, relatively, to the team of the other pitcher.  And it is funny how the fates work, had Matt Weiter fallen to the Giants in 2007, as some had projected, Bumgarner most probably would have been chosen by the Braves with their first round pick, instead of Heyward, who I think most teams were passing over as unsignable because both parents are college professors and undoubtedly they told other teams that he was going to school, while secretly wanting the Braves to draft him since their scout was already good friends with their family.  They would have then selected him with the 33rd pick.

Hanson actually had a good outing against the Giants in the playoffs, just got unlucky with the hits and homer, as he struck out 5, only walked one, in 4.0 IP. He has never pitched in AT&T, but has a 2.57 ERA in two starts in Atlanta: 14 IP, 14 K's but only 5 walks.  He dominated one game with 11 K's, wasn't so dominant last season but gave up less runs - funny how that works sometimes - so he has pretty much handled the Giants in his short career so far.

Bumgarner handled the Braves well in the playoffs:  6.0 IP, 6 hits, 2 R/ER, 1 walk, 5 K's, 3.00 ERA.  He has never faced the Braves before in the regular season, but his playoff game should indicate how well he might do as the pressure in that game was much unlike a regular season game, though it was for the series clincher and the Giants would have Lincecum in game 5.

Should be a close game, could go either way, hard to call, and both have been tough on the other team.  I would give the lean to the Braves if Pablo Sandoval is out with his injury again, but would give the lean to the Giants if he is starting, though Hanson has handled Sandoval handily in his career, 0 for 9.  But Sandoval is hitting better this season and hopefully can continue, as Hanson has dominated the Giants hitters over his career.

Game 2:  Lincecum vs. Tim Hudson

Tim Hudson:  Giving up runs again early on Monday against the Dodgers, Hudson surrendered three runs in the first inning, in which Los Angeles batted around. He settled down and gave up only one run and two hits over the next five innings but took the loss.

Tim Lincecum:  Lincecum no-hit Colorado for 6 1/3 innings in his previous outing, the first time since July 9, 2009, that he had gone at least six innings without giving up a hit. This will be his first outing vs. Atlanta since the Division Series.

Battle of the Tiny Tims, one could say, though Hudson is 6' 1", which is not that short for baseball, but I recall talk about him being on the short side.  However, Hudson is now in his mid-30's and he is now a pitcher, as he doesn't strike out many guys anymore but is still able to keep his ERA below 4 every season, though he's currently at 4.05.  In his career, 3.58 ERA against the Giants in SF, in 5 starts, so he's been pretty good, and that is inflated greatly because he has handled them fine in 4 of the 5 starts, that one disaster start many years back really screwed up his ERA.  Aaron Rowand and Buster Posey only ones looking good against him previously.

As well as Hudson has done against the Giants, Lincecum has 2.86 ERA in 8 starts against Braves, but in 4 starts in SF, only 6 ER in 29.0 IP for 1.86 ERA with 31 K's and 9 BB's.  Plus Hudson has never faced Sandoval when he's hitting well, as the Giants now have a 1-2 punch 4-5 with Posey and Sandoval in there against RHP.

Should be a close game, given Hudson's strong outings against the Giants before, but give a strong lean towards Lincecum because he's been that much better against the Braves.  But given how low scoring games go, it could go either way for the most part.  Oh, but I should also mention Lincecum's new slider, which puts more of a lean towards Lincecum, he has been masterful since he perfected it last September, with a below 2.00 ERA since then.

Game 3:  Beachy vs. Sanchez

Brandon Beachy:  Getting his first career win, Beachy got stronger as the night went on Tuesday against the Dodgers. Commanding his fastball the entire game, Beachy pitched six innings, giving up no runs and two hits while walking two and striking out seven.

Jonathan Sanchez:  Sanchez has averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings. He sailed through his last outing, yielding Dexter Fowler's leadoff double and nothing else for six innings at Colorado.

OK, now I see why Bochy would want to skip Vogelsong:  this alignment gives the Giants the best chance to win the series, with a possibility of a sweep.  Starting Vogelsong would have made just winning the series hard because Hanson is very good and probably would have won that game, then Bumgarner would have hard time against Hudson, and Lincecum would have had a gimme against Beachy.

By skipping Vogelsong, the Giants have a great chance of winning the series against a potential wildcard contender and playoff opponent. Good to put the foot to the neck against someone the Giants could be competing against for a playoff spot.  That is something I've learned to appreciate about Bochy, he knows when playing around with the lineup and pitching is no big deal, causing some fans consternation, but then knows to put the pressure on when it is potentially important.

As nicely as Beachy did against LA, you have to remember that it was only LA.  Still, though, 39 K's in 38.1 IP in his short MLB career (7 career starts) is pretty damn good, and his K/BB is higher this season, though it is all small samples so far, this is his first full season and he only got 3 starts (only 15.0 IP) last season.  And thus far, he handled the Brewer's potent offense well in his first start, but then the Phillies and Marlins whacked him around, before he shut down the D-gers on 2-hitter.  That's two 5 PQS starts out of four starts, no disaster starts so far, this season.

All that is much above what Baseball America and Minor League Baseball Analysts had him pegged as - #3 starter material.  Not sure why he was rated so low though, high K-rates and K/BB ratio, due to very low walk rate, in the minors, would suggest good talent there.  But only his fastball was rated above average, his changeup and slider are average, which is good but not great in the majors.  Oddly enough, his K-rate actually went WAAAY up after conversion from reliever to starter in 2010, when it usually is the other way around, with K-rate going up with switch to relief, due to no need to hold back when relieving.  And both services rate Beachy only 8th in the Braves system.

Sanchez has been as good as hoped so far this season, with a high walk rate the only real negative.  However, he has a bad history with the Braves, 5.82 ERA in 5 games, 3 starts, in AT&T, even worse when you include his starts in Atlanta, and his seasonal stats against them aren't pretty either.  Which makes his masterpiece against them in the playoffs all the more wondrous, because he's never really shown such dominance over them previously, though he had an OK start against them in 2009.

The plus side is that probably most of those starts were with Molina behind the plate and for whatever reason, he and Molina never clicked, whereas he is brilliant with Whitesite (2.69 ERA) or Posey (3.09 ERA) behind the plate, which is another reason why I think he can repeat 2010's performance despite the negatives, such as abnormally low BABIP.  He did have a poor start in his only regular season start with Posey catching, but that as last August when all the pitchers were having their hiccup.  And, of course, there was his brilliant outing in the playoffs with Posey behind the plate.

So, as nicely as Beachy has done and lousy Sanchez has done, it appears that they are pretty evenly matched, but I would give Sanchez the lean for being the home team.

Giants Thoughts

Overall, the Giants look good this series, much better than if Vogelsong was going for them first. They at least have a fighting chance to win this series, which is ideal, both for continuing their streak, as well as their only home series for a while, as they go on the road for three series and ten games afterward.  But a series win is not a sure thing either, the Braves, unsurprisingly, have three very good starters up against us, and the Giants are arguably missing their two best starters, at least in terms of ERA this season, in Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens.

After a World Series Championship hangover that yielded poor performances in their first two series against LA and SD, distracting them until they got home and started celebrating and receiving their rings, the Giants have won 4 straight series, and could have come out with sweeps in three of them had they been able to win the rubber game.  That is not too bad considering that both Barry Zito and Bumgarner were not at the top of their game in any start this season so far.

As anticipated, Brandon Belt was the one sent back down when Cody Ross made it off the DL, which is only appropriate because Belt would not have started on the team had Ross not had his injury.  Torres injury made it a possibility that he might last longer, but with Rowand's HBP, that sunk any chance of that, as the Giants needed to keep Ford around in case they need CF help, as they didn't want to put any extra stress on Ross's legs right after he got off the DL.

Many fans were very upset, but it was the right move.  He clearly was not 100% ready to handle major league pitching yet.  Still, it was the right move to bring him up since Ross's injury presented the opportunity to kick his tires and see how he does.  Apparently there is no honeymoon period for Sabean or Bruce Bochy with the Giants winning the World Championship.

Another reason to send him down is that clearly the Giants cannot have Aubrey Huff playing RF full-time, and that is what happens if Belt up here playing 1B, so while he is down there he should be playing in the OF, mostly in RF, but also LF to give flexibility in where the Giants can put him.  After all, Burrell usually comes out for defensive purposes late in the game.

And you know Belt will eventually come back up, though when is the question because his presence on the 25-man roster basically would mean that Nate Schierholtz would be forced off the roster.  Now that he has been put back down in AAA, he could conceivably end up staying in AAA all season, barring another OF injury, until the September call-ups, when any 40-man roster player can be brought up without clearing space on the 25-man.  That would save the Giants from losing Schierholtz, who they might need next season, if only to save money on the roster as the pitchers get big raises, particularly Lincecum.

One of the big question marks for the Braves series is the status of Pablo Sandoval.  He was taken out of the last game in Colorado due to an injury he had taking BP and while the thinking back then is that he should be back for the Braves series, you never know what might happen until he takes BP again in the pre-game warm-ups (he apparently is well and expected to start).

If he is out, that would be a big blow to our chances of winning this series; if he is in, I'm feeling pretty good about the Giants chances, because the pitching cancels each other out, but his bat is currently a difference maker between the two offenses.

Another question mark, in my mind, is Aaron Rowand's arm and hitting.  The Giants have been able to handle Andres Torres out of the lead-off spot with Rowand's hot hitting, but like always, his hot hitting seems to start with good health but stops courtesy of an injury or lingering condition.  Torres will be out a while longer and we need Rowand to continue his hot hitting, which seems to last in short spurts until an injury leads to a decline.

However, helping things out is that Aubrey Huff is starting to heat up, he has 2 homers in his last four games, after starting the season with none in his first 14 games.   He seems to be a slow starter, people forget after his stellar 2010, but his OPS was under 700 late in April, he didn't look anything like the power hitting monster he was later.  As of April 26, 2010, he only had 1 HR up to then in 67 AB/78 PA, 19 games, 18 starts.  But once he started hitting them, they came in droves, he then had 3 HR in the next 5 games, and would continue that pattern in 2010, long stretches of no homers then a bunch in a short number of games.

Also want to give Freddy Sanchez a shoutout for his great start so far.  Could this be how good he is when healthy?  He's been playing with problems in his shoulders the past few seasons.  His BABIP is very high, so most probably it will go down and he will cool off, but one would hope that he would be able to sustain things longer given that he's healthy for the first time in years.

And lastly, the addition of Ross in the lineup over Belt should also yield an improvement in offense.

Post First Game Observations and News

First with the big news:  Giants signed Freddy Sanchez to a one year extension contract for 2012 for $6M, no option year for 2013 with buyout as the Giants proposed, apparently he still wanted to control that year, though he'll be 35 that season, not sure what he was thinking there.

Apparently the Giants don't think Culberson, Noonan, or Gillaspie will be ready by that season to take over.  Though, on the other hand, the Giants have not been adverse to trading players, so this is probably more a case of the risk mitigation strategy I've been writing about, of ensuring that you have certain key position players under control.  Now they have Aubrey Huff and Sanchez out of the vets, plus Andres Torres under control to 2012 (plus Rowand but that is possibly fluid), as well as their young players Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, and Brandon Belt, plus Nate Schierholtz potentially.

I'm OK with the move, we got a lot of salary moving off the books potentially (Miguel Tejada, Mark DeRosa, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Pat Burrell, Cody Ross) that will help pay for raises, particularly Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Brian Wilson, plus Sandoval's first arbitration season.  As Sabean demonstrated with Bengie Molina last season, he is willing to trade a vet to open a spot for a deserving prospect.

Sabean Still Has His Naysayers

And that's been the problem in the past that many Giants fans didn't get:  the Giants didn't have any really deserving prospects in the past, hence all the angst over Lance Niekro, Todd Linden, Kevin Frandsen, John Bowker, Freddie Lewis.  But the fans didn't understand that and complained about all the pitching, and joined the masses that I have named the Sabean Naysayers, though I do lump all the Bochy Haters in there too.  That's why there was all sort of ire from Giants fans that I saw tweeted yesterday, their colors are showing.

That's because, despite the 2010 Giants World Series Championship, the Sabean Naysayers' ugly stripes are showing off brightly, in neon, as it don't take much to get them going.  Much like the past 5 seasons, they just haven't bought into his plan yet, and gripe, gripe, gripe.  It appears that not even this wonderful World Championship is enough to convince these people.

That's because these people think that they know how to run a baseball team better than Sabean and Bochy.  Because they feel that they know more baseball in their pinkie than Sabean and Bochy together, and by God, it must be so because they can publish their drivel on the internet.

Of course, these are the same people who wanted to break up the starting rotation to get some average hitting, like Corey Hart or Alexis Rios.  For them, they were willing to give up elite pitchers like Lincecum, Cain, and/or Sanchez, as long as that got them some offense, any offense.

These are also the people who complained about every draft where the Giants didn't pick up a hitter, especially Madison Bumgarner over Jason Heyward.  Nevermind that Heyward never would have signed with any other team other than the Braves that draft.  A Braves scout's son was in the same league as Heyward, so the scout smartly cultivated a relationship with the budding star, and by the time of the draft, he was very tight with the Heyward family.  Parents who, by the way, are college professors, so Jason would have been very comfortable going to college as a backup, if anyone else dared to draft him.  But he wanted to play baseball and for the Braves, and undoubtedly left the impression with every scout that their team should not bother to draft him, as he's going to college.

Then again, even when the Giants picked a position player - Posey - they complained vociferously that the Giants should have picked Justin Smoak instead.  Because, you know, they know baseball better than anyone, a firstbaseman is much more worth it than a catcher who can hit and field great, and is super intelligent too, so could lead our stable of great young pitchers, but oh yeah, these people don't think much of having a stable, trade them away to get hitters, more hitters please!!!

Of course, I'm talking the generic "they".  I'm lumping them all together, these people who had one or many or sometimes all of these thoughts at one time or another, and made it forcefully clear on the Internet that they believe this wholeheartedly and think that Sabean and Bochy was "lucky" in 2010, they will celebrate the championship like nothing, but Sabean and Bochy were more lucky than good.

I also lump in all the people who think that Sabean don't know what offense is.  Sabean must have some good ideas on offense, when he controlled the Yankees player personnel, they acquired players like Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and JT Snow, and I have to believe that as GM he can veto a first round draft pick, so at minimum, he was on board with getting Posey, whereas the Sabean Naysayers wanted Justin Smoak.  He also acquired Jeff Kent and Ellis Burks, to build one of the best offenses of that time, Barry Bonds couldn't do it all himself, as we saw later.

These people complain about the position players he has acquired before, but that shows their lack of understanding of MLB baseball, that entertainment and expectations are part of that equation.  If a GM sits on his hands when his team obviously needs some help, that's bad for drawing fans to attend games, you have to give some hope.  In any case, you want a GM who takes some risks to help the team get over the hump.  A failed trade does not mean he does not understand offense, it means he tried and that was the best that was available on the market, sometimes you have to take the shot because the current alternative (keep starting Niekro, for example, wasn't working).

This also ignores that fact that Sabean has basically kept every prospect worth keeping.  The only clear mistakes after the fact are Bobby Howry, Keith Foulke, and Francisco Liriano.  He could have gotten a better player than, say, Shea Hildebrand if he would have traded away a good prospect away like Jonathan Sanchez or Pablo Sandoval, instead of Jeremy Accardo, but he clearly traded away the right prospect.  Sometimes it work - Burrell, Lopez, Ramirez, Ross - sometimes it don't.

And generally, while there have been a number of significant fails among the free agents, the fact is that those players were held in high enough esteem with teams that they got the contracts that they did, the Giants did their best to get the best available if they had the money to go out.  They might not have all worked, but the Giants used their money and tried to improve, for the fans, because that was the best available on the market.  That is not a sign that Sabean don't understand offense, it was a sign that GM sometimes have to do moves that show the fans that he is trying to make moves to win and that is all that is available to him on the market.  Laissez faire is something that don't win a lot of accolades either, as evidenced by all the complainers that the Giants stood pat this off-season.

What it is a sign of is that these Sabean Naysayers don't really understand how to win at baseball.  They gripe, gripe, gripe about the offense, but always "ya-but" the pitching plus, more insanely, wanted to trade the great pitching away, when it has all been about the pitching for a long time now, and shown by leading baseball analysis organizations, Baseball Prospectus and The Hardball Times, that offense don't win in the playoffs, pitching and fielding does.

They also don't understand or realize that if the moves that they argued so passionately for - trading away one of our great starting pitchers for a hitter, drafting Heyward over Bumgarner, drafting Smoak over Posey - had actually gone through, there would be no 2010 World Championship, they were either clear downgrades or, in the case of Bumgarner, hard to imagine how Heyward could outdo Madison, particularly with him hitting .125/.176/.125/.301 in 17 PA in that playoff series.

Ignoring, of course, the fact that had the Giants drafted Heyward, they would have ended up with no signed pick that season and thus have no Heyward or Bumgarner (he probably would have ironically been picked by Braves, being a local guy and Heyward not around, and maybe helped them in 2010 to go deep instead).

The Sabean Naysayers would be the one us Giants fans would be ranting and rioting to get fired, because any of those moves would have been worse than any move that Sabean has made (and that would be Rowand, as Zito is pretty much acknowledged by Giants fans who follow the team closely to be a Magowan signing; evidence is that Magowan got swept out of the management office, while Sabean was not even though he only had a one year contract left at that time).  The Giants don't win if they are missing any of the young pitchers or catcher - Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Posey - and the tradeoffs would have been worse alternatives that surely would have resulted in the Giants not making the playoffs in 2010.  But realizing that would take greater self-awareness and an understanding that the suggestions you make have very real consequences, had they the power to enact them or the memory to remember that they suggested these bad moves.

Belt Has a Wonderful Debut

Brandon Belt had a nice start to his career.  He got in the action immediately, fielding a couple of plays in the first inning.  He beats out a grounder to get a hit in his first AB, off of Kershaw: fitting since he once faced Kershaw in high school and beat out a infield base hit there as well.  That also showed off his speed, as belied by his tall stature.  He battled both Kershaw and their closer, Broxton, and drew a lot of pitches, in an impressive show of plate discipline and understanding of the zone.

Very encouraging.  And it is like playing with the bank's money when you win big at the casino, as I wrote yesterday, the Giants get to try out Belt for 3-4 weeks, see how he handles the big leagues, then can decide whether he needs more seasoning in AAA at that point.  Who knows, Cody Ross could be Wally Pipped by Belt if Belt performs very well up here.  And he showed no nerves at all, unlike some of the other Giants players.

This is another sign of Bill Neukom's edict for Sabean to make baseball decisions and not financial decisions, and let Neukom figure out the finances part.  And he has a lot of finances.  While all previous mentions of him only noted that he made maybe $100M from Microsoft stock and that he roughly donated that much to his alma mater, plus, of course, bought a large share of the Giants, I was reading through Band of MiSFits, by Andy Baggarly and found out that he is worth over $500M, so he could be the sugar daddy I've been agitating for the Giants to get as an owner.  Someone who can write a $20M check for additional shares of the Giants to enable the signing of a player or the keeping of young players, or whatever they might want to afford.  In this case, bringing up Belt now, even though that takes away one year of control over him (we lose 2017 if he don't see about two weeks in AAA this season) and thus would cost a whole lot more to keep him in 2017 versus his third season of arbitration.

Best Wishes to the Giants Fans Attacked by D-ger Fans

Lastly, apparently cooler heads didn't prevail, apparently two dastardly D-ger fans attacked three Giants fans yesterday (as reported by AP, so presumably not April Fool's joke) and one is critically injured, but is thankfully stable, sustaining a head injury.  Best wishes for a speedy recovery!

Your 2010 Giants are 1-0 in the World Series

Wow, what a game!

Started out bad, in that Lincecum seemed all over the place, but he did what the great pitchers do, limit the damage so I wasn't stressing too badly.  Meanwhile, while Lee was giving up no runs, I did not feel like he was the overpowering pitcher everyone was raving about, I thought it was a matter of time before the Giants started stringing hits together.  But I never thought that they would do that the extent that they did!

Then the way they came back, reminded me of Game 3 in 2002's World Series when the Giants roared back after the Angel's battered our pitchers and the Giants took the lead - only to lose in the end...  So while I don't like using the closer so early generally, this gets back to what I've been saying about Bochy understanding the do or die element that exists in these series but that other managers (koff! Dusty) did not seem to get.  Just get the win, worry about tomorrow when it becomes today.

And really, with all the days off between cities plus the rest before the series after the NLCS, Wilson should be OK just from a regular usage basis.  In addition, Wilson says that he is capable of pitching everyday - and remember, he has regularly pitched 1+ inning saves - so if he puts in 0.2 inning on Wednesday, he can put in 1.0 inning on Thursday and not really pitch more than usual.  Then he rests his arm on Friday before we go to Texas.

And the offense!?! How exciting that Freddy Sanchez and Aubrey Huff had the great games they had!  Both their bats were starting to wake up at the end of the NLCS and now they are fully awake. Also Torres got on twice and scored two runs, having our top two guys getting on base really got the offense going.  Cody Ross, of course, had to get a clutch hit and contribute a run.  And Juan Uribe appears to be waking up as well, hitting a 3-run homer that proved to the margin that made the game a real laugher still, and homering in his second game in a row.  Appears Phillies woke up Juan by hitting him in Game 6.  That reminds me of Rich Aurilia in the 2002 playoffs, his bat woke when he was buzzed or hit by pitch.

Luckily, given how well Ogando pitched, the Rangers didn't go to him instead of O'Day, else Uribe might not have gotten his 3-run homer.  Hopefully the Giants can score enough to keep Ogando on the bench, as well as Neftali Feliz.

Hopefully, Lincecum was only tight, but he has pitched more innings than he ever did before, plus technically was pitching on short rest because of his relief stint in Game 6 of the NLCS.  We will probably need him at his best in the next start if we hope to win, can't expect to beat up on Lee again.  Though, if Cain is able to win today, Lee might be pitching in Game 4 instead.

With this win, the Giants continue an amazing feat (blogged on by the peerless Andy Baggarly in his ExtraBaggs blog):  "the Giants haven't trailed in a postseason series yet.  They won their third consecutive Game 1.  For all their torture, they still haven't played a true elimination game in 2010."  And that's because their 162nd game wasn't an elimination game, they were going to play more games, for if they had lost, then all those damn tie-breaker games would have been put in motion.  That was a huge win for the Giants, huge game by Jonathan Sanchez.

Baggarly also noted:  "But tonight's victory was important in a few other respects, too.  It was their 100th win of the season, which is something few teams get to claim.  It also was Bruce Bochy's first World Series victory as a manager.  If you've forgotten, Bochy's San Diego Padres were swept by the Yankees in 1998."

Last Baggarly note:  Tim Lincecum was allowed to wear his lucky, sweat-stained hat that he has worn since he joined the Giants, almost every game if I recall right.  He had to allow a World Series patch to be stitched on the side, though, hope that doesn't destroy the hat when he tries to remove it for future use, or maybe if the Giants win the World Series, he'll finally retire that cap and start with a new cap?

Lastly, I will note that Aubrey Huff's Red Thong has made the cover of today's Wall Street Journal, for those of you who subscribe.  He and his thong are the subjects of the WSJ's famous "Middle Column" series of off-beat human interest stories.  I'll bet he's proud of that!

Game 2:  CJ Wilson vs. Cain

Wow, wonder if Ranger's manager Washington now regrets doing this?  Put his third best pitcher up in a must win situation on the road.  He appears to have been guided by how each pitcher has done during this season by ERA, but as I noted with my PQS analysis, it actually has been the reverse.  It was just some random luck involving DIS starts that bloated their ERA, which really involves luck regarding when the manager takes out the starter and whether his reliever is able to prevent his runners from scoring, and whether his fielders are good or not (like how Vlad didn't get to a lot of balls, or handle them well, but didn't get an error awarded).

But as shut down as Cain has been for us so far, obviously the cautionary tale is yesterday's game by Cliff Lee:  no pitcher is untouched forever if he gets enough starts.  The good news is that Cain has not pitched in a long time.  Unlike Lincecum, he has not had to pitch in more than one game in any series yet and has gotten a lot of rest in-between starts.  Of course, all of our pitchers are pitching waaay beyond the innings that they ever did before, so I'm glad that Bochy has gone with the quick hook on them, which keeps the work load on their bodies minimized.

And if Torres, Sanchez and Huff's bats are waking up, that is good news for the offense, as there will be a steady supply of runners on base for Posey, Burrell, Ross, and Uribe.  Luckily, as I noted, Wilson is good but not really great.  And he might be tiring, he had two well pitched games to start the playoffs, but had a disaster start in his last game.

I would also note that this is his first season starting in a long time, he had been their closer for years, so not only is he beyond his innings like the other starters, but he was way over already during the regular season.  However, I would note that among the Ranger's starters, Wilson was probably the best in delivering DOM starts the last two months of the season, so he obviously conditioned his body well during the off-season in order to start this season.

Still, Cain has been very consistent all season long, and was even better than Wilson the last two months, though I would note that Cain faltered in the first game in the San Diego series with a DIS start.  Still, before that he had a string of 9 consecutive DOM starts, 13 of 14 DOM starts, almost half the season, that is extremely dominating, to say the least.  At least Cain had his hiccup during the regular season and has continued to do well in the playoffs, with a lot of rest.  It really looks good for the Giants in this game, though if Wilson is on his game, it will be another tight nail-biter, but still, Cain, like the Giants have been doing all season and all playoffs, probably will give up just a little less runs.  Hopefully the bullpen can hold it this time.

Go Giants!

Hobbling Along: 2010 Giants Injury Status

Thought I would run by some of the injury updates that have come up over the past week or so:

Freddy Sanchez probably not ready by Opening Day

Everyone was expecting this anyway, so not real big news, but just further admission of this fait accompli. Which I think is good anyway. Why rush Sanchez into uniform? We have Juan Uribe to start in his place right now, plus perhaps Frandsen could get some starts as well if he's on the bench too. DeRosa can play there if necessary as well.

Meanwhile, that opens up a spot on the bench for somebody who may be out of options. It could enable the Giants to keep Steve Johnson, their Rule 5 pick, on the 25 man for a couple of weeks to see how he does. It could also enable the Giants to hold onto a player who is out of options, like Ishikawa (though I would note that the way they have made a point to talk about him, he was going to be on the bench barring some huge lack of spring performance), Lewis, and Torres. Recent news (giantsrainman captured it well here at McCovey Chronicles) verified that Frandsen and Velez still have one option left. I think Velez is going to end up in Fresno for 2011, however, particularly if Ishikawa is OK playing LF, as they plan to do this spring (plus Frandsen can play LF if he is on the bench as well).

I think the sure bench players are Whiteside (no way Posey starts as backup, he needs the EXPERIENCE), Uribe, and Ishikawa, leaving two spots, three with Sanchez on DL and Uribe starting. For the two spots, I'm still thinking Frandsen and Lewis, though with DeRosa capable, they could keep Torres around instead of Frandsen. But he had a lucky year in 2009, I would rather see Frandsen up and maybe getting a few starts while Sanchez is out.

The extra spot then goes to someone who otherwise would have been sent down, but did well enough in spring to get some reward. Johnson would be first on the list, and his bar for achievement is lower because we lose him otherwise. This article also noted that Johnson is being looked at as a 5th starter, which makes sense to me because he's been a starter for much of his minor league career.

Neal HBP in the head

Neal has a bump but otherwise has no ill affects, laughing it off, and thus is cleared to continue preparations for the season. Schulman reported that he got hit last year too. He is the only position prospect, other than Posey, that I think has any hope of contributing to the major league club this season (I'm not counting Bowker, Burriss, or Frandsen, since they don't count as a rookie, which most people use as the cutoff for prospects).

Burris and his left foot toe

On his second extra-base hit the other day, he came up feeling pain in the toe (fractured fifth metatarsal) that he hurt last year. He took himself out of the game as a precaution. He is on crutches but his X-ray was clean, so that is good. MRI is next step, which happened earlier today and he is hoping that all he did was tear scar tissue, in which case he could resume playing next week.

I don't expect him to win a bench job, they used recovery of injury to send Frandsen down last year, so I expect the same for Burriss this year plus they probably want him to get acclimated again with SS, since Renteria's contract is up this year (though there is a team option if I remember right) and Sanchez is signed to 2011.

Good news on Ishikawa and his step-toe

Travis tore some ligaments in his left foot, falling down the stairs recently (he described as similar to "turf-toe") and had been working out with a walking boot. He just got out of the boot and says that he is feeling great. As I noted above, Bochy has been high on Ishikawa, as can be seen in this blog post by Haft, indicating that Ishikawa "has [a] strong chance of claiming a Major League job."

It just makes sense to keep Ishikawa around. First, he played great defense at 1B and hit well in AT&T. Second, they don't have any 1B ready to take over should anything happens to Huff, other than Ishikawa, they don't have much depth. They could play DeRosa or Sandoval there, but that would then weaken LF or 3B, though I suppose they could move DeRosa to 3B, Sandoval to 1B, then whoever to LF (Lewis, Bowker, Velez). It just seems like, as I read Ishikawa noting somewhere recently, he understands that the Giants got Huff to compete this season, and so he's preparing himself to support the team. Third, he's currently our best option for 2011, unless Neal or Pill can have a monster year in 2010 and take over 1B. Given the Giants preference for defense at 1B, Ishikawa is probably going to be around for at least this year.

Mark DeRosa, chopping on the bit

He had his left wrist surgically repair last season and has been slowly getting into shape, not wishing to cause any setback by rushing things. He had been hoping to start the first game on Wednesday, but is not concerned that it is not 100% yet, as it just gets tired and he will need to build it up, by taking enough swings every day. He is reportedly "close to full batting practice", which is not as good as actually playing but a step closer to that goal.

Baggarly noted, however, that it is not uncommon for players who undergo wrist surgery to require a full year before they feel no pain or inflammation, and he was operated just after the season ended. So we'll see if DeRosa can play at his recent levels of offensive production or if he'll have a down season.

Fans not the only one embarrassed by Renteria in 2009

Renteria was embarassed too. His surgery was the simplest of all the surgeries and he appears to be recovering fine. Baggarly noted, "His swing looked unfettered as he pounded a couple of BP fastballs over the left-field fence." Bochy noted, "That elbow feels so much better. It's a sense of relief, too, knowing he can let the bat go with no pain." Hopefully this means a return to the good hitting he did in prior years, which would be a great boon to the lineup, as it could use another 800+ OPS hitter, at his high end, or even a mid to high 700 OPS hitter, which he was in other seasons.

Giants Thoughts

Nothing really to worry about above, though perhaps DeRosa. But if it is just fatigue, then the Giants can bring in somebody for him late in the game, that should not affect his production otherwise. And good news generally for all the players.

Plus, Sanchez on the DL allows the Giants to take an extended look at someone during the season, particularly Steve Johnson, the Rule 5 pick. That would also allow the Giants to justify returning Bumgarner to the minors and AAA, where he can pitch for a couple of months and either force his way onto the roster or perfect some more pitches, because if his velocity is down, he is not forcing his way onto the roster and will need those other pitches. That would allow the Giants to carry both Wellemeyer and Johnson, to take a look at both, until dropping one when Sanchez comes off the DL.

Sanchez being out also allows the Giants to take a closer look at Frandsen and other 2B options during the spring. They need to see these players in as many game situations as they can to figure out who best to keep and who to cut. Particularly if there are so many players who still have an option available, like Frandsen and Velez.

Molina Teleconference and Sanchez Shoulder Surgery

Molina has been officially signed by the Giants and there was a press conference earlier today. Reports from Baggarly's blog (and his news account) and John Shea of the Chronicle. Here are key points covered, including the surprising news that came out of a KNBR interview last night with Bruce Bochy, where he casually noted that Freddy Sanchez had shoulder surgery about a month ago and is on the bubble for making the start of the season.

• Molina is officially a Giant, signing a $4.5M contract. Bengie noted that the Mets never offered a multi-year contract, else he probably would have took it, and only offered him a $5.0M contract (my note: most reports had it at $5.5M), so he decided that he would rather be where he was comfortable than get $500K more (my note: but apparently did not mention the $1.5M option that he could earn that most sources reported). He also said that he expects the Giants to be making the playoffs, unlike the Mets. He believes the Giants are "very, very close" to making something special happen.
• Nice quote: "The plan is to move him down in the lineup, possibly sixth. "I never considered myself a fourth hitter. I thought I was doing them a favor," said Molina, adding he'll bat wherever manager Bruce Bochy wants him. "I can hit behind the pitcher if he wants me there."
• Molina said he texted Posey and assured him that he wasn't there to take his job (though probably he did, unless the Giants signed another starting catcher) and offered to be there for him for anything. Posey then called back and they chatted. Sabean reiterated that Posey needed more seasoning in the minors, though he didn't rule out Posey starting the season as the backup catcher. Bu the expectation is that he'll get to start everyday in AAA and continue his learning with Steve Decker (former Giants catcher) who is now Fresno's manager (moving up the farm system). Baggarly noted that it's possible he will receive a promotion at some point this season. Molina said, "I said I'm happy to help out with whatever he needs. If they want to bring him up and do their thing, hey, I understand."
• Sanchez had left shoulder surgery on December 23rd. The Giants Dr. Akizuki, who is on their staff, repaired a torn labrum and cleaned up an arthritic AC joint arthroscopically. Apparently the Giants did 4 MRIs on him before signing him, but like the medical shows, missed the torn labrum, which went unnoticed until Sanchez started swinging a bat again. He is expected to be out 10-12 weeks, meaning that Opening Day is in doubt, but the expectation is that he'll be 100% once he does take the field. I can understand the mistake, but when so many of them are being made, it makes you wonder what is going on with our training staff. The good news is that Sanchez is working his butt off to make opening day and it is encouraging thus far.
• Juan Uribe is our starting 2B until Sanchez gets back. That's why we signed him, insurance in case some regular is unable to start or needs a rest. I was hoping the Giants might play DeRosa there instead and let two young players start in the OF, but I can see the merits of keeping DeRosa out in LF since he doesn't have the most experience out there (though over a season's worth of games in the OF).
• They reported that both Burriss and Renteria were doing well. Renteria told the Giants that he's excited about where he's at. Hopefully that will translate to his hitting like he did when he was a plus hitter, that would be a boon to our offense.
• The Giants DFAed Jesus Guzman to clear space for Molina. Sabean noted that any other acquisitions would come on minor league contracts with invitations to spring training, including additional right-handed relievers.

Giants Thoughts

Unlike many others, I have no problem with the signing, particularly since it would give Posey more time to get more experience in the minors. It should also give us one more year of control over him, plus the learning he would have done in 2010 would have costed us one year of control, while now he will get some of that learning in AAA before hopefully getting called up in July or August (or even September), and getting to play a little backing up Bengie plus learning from Molina.

I'm upset about Sanchez but I'll get over it (unlike others). He should only be out for two weeks, and that should not kill our chances of winning while he is out, because Uribe is a good enough replacement. Hey, one year Schmidt was out until May, and we came back and started winning and had a good year. As long as we don't fall too far behind while he is out, we should be OK.

Still, something has got to be done about the training staff, we seem to have all these unknown medical conditions that creep up on us, starting around when Bonds knee that was suppose to keep him out for a little while instead kept him out almost all season.

Guzman: hey, thanks for the excitement you gave us for a little while, good luck.

Giants Sign Freddy Sanchez: 2 years, $12M

Announced late Friday, the Giants signed Freddy Sanchez to a reported (Chron's Schulman then Merc, based on what sfgiants.com's Haft wrote), 2 years, $12M contract. Reports from sfgiants.com, Chronicle, and Merc. As a side note, Noah Lowry (unsurprisingly), Justin Miller, and Kelvin Pichardo have been released, freeing 3 spots on the 40 man roster. Baggarly also noted that the following players are eligible for arbitration: Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson, Jonathan Sanchez, Brandon Medders and Ryan Garko. Plus, the Giants are having conversations with all their free agents, but only about what the Giants are thinking, not that the Giants necessarily want them back.

Sanchez could have had an $8.1M contract for 2010 if he really wanted to, so in essence he is being paid $3.9M for 2011. Given that Hudson, a comparable 2B, last season only got $3M plus incentives (which eventually got him a total about $8M, if I recall right), Sanchez was trading off the risks that 1) he could be in Type A free agent hell for two years, not knowing who he would be playing for, and getting stuck with which ever team happens to be looking for a cheap 2B, and accepting whatever contract they offer, particularly considering his injury problems this season, and 2) he could be injured again, you never know considering he's entered his 30's, look at what happened to Ray Durham, healthy all his 20's then every, s-i-n-g-l-e season he's injured.

For that, he knows he's playing for a good rising team that was in the playoff hunt in 2009 and possibly the next two years plus don't have to worry about where he's going to be for the next two years nor what contract he might end up with. And there's the injury thing.

Also, for what it's worth, he felt bad that he was not able to contribute to the pennant run, as was intended by the trade, and that the Giants traded a "pretty high prospect" for him.

Giants Thoughts

Not surprised about a deal, I expected a deal to happen. But 2 years at $12M was an unexpected and nice surprise. I thought that perhaps the 3 year $20M offer that Sanchez gave Pittsburgh might be resurrected, but this is even better. Perhaps he wanted security for now but wanted to test free agency with a healthy body next time. Taking one year at lower pay when there is an $8.1M option doesn't make sense, but a 2 year at these terms does.

That's why all the hand-wringing a lot of Giants fans (i.e. the section of Sabean Naysayers out there) did, worrying about what might happen, was all for naught. They just automatically think that Sabean is going to screw it up in some way, but as I noted, it made sense for both sides to work out a deal for a reasonable amount of money. So we did end up with somebody good for Alderson, and given how poorly he was doing in AA for the Pirates, it looks like we sold high, and all the angst over Franchez was much ado over nothing.

Not surprised that Lowry was released (technically, his option was turned down and then he was outrighted, so as to avoid arbitration, and now he has the right to turn down the assignment and become a free agent, which will happen). His agent accused the Giants staff of incompetance, which is pretty silly because Lowry had problems that had never been seen in baseball before, they had to go to another sport to find such an instance. The Giants said that they are still open, but there is no way they can come back to the Giants and not look bad for the lawsuit that appears to be percolating on Lowry's end. Good luck with your career Noah, thanks for all the good pitching.

I was a little surprised by Miller being outrighted until I found out that he's up for arbitration. With so many players up for arbitration, they probably thought that they could outright him and then try to keep him as an option for next year, since he was signed to a minor contract last year and had his arm surgery. Medders, however, would have been a hot item on the free agent market. I think Miller will stick around and the Giants are talking with him.

Kelvin Pichardo's release possibly ends the Michael Tucker saga in SF. Pichardo was who we got in the trade for Tucker and for a number of years, it looked like he might make the team as a reliever, but despite good numbers in the minors, he never got the call up to the majors, even when basically every pitcher on the 40 man got called up and got at least a cup of coffee in the majors, in 2008. He's probably gone, probably will sign up with someone else since it doesn't look like it's going to happen here.

I am good with the deal for Sanchez. Forget his great season, that's ain't happening again. Still, if you average what he did in his other four seasons, that's a .326 OBP and .407 SLG for a .733 OPS. Plug that into the lineup calculator, compare batting 2nd (which is where the Giants envision him hitting, though apparently 3rd is an option too; .250/.299/.332/.632) with what we got from batting 2nd last season (guys hitting 2nd in lineup didn't do much better than the 2B too; .236/.281/.329/.611), and we add roughly 0.15 to 0.2 runs to the lineup, just with that one move. That would move us from 4.06 runs per game to at least 4.2 runs per game, maybe 4.25 runs scored per game, which, if our pitching holds up, would add two wins to our team.

We should also have improvements at 1B (Ishi-Garko platoon) and SS (Renteria healthy and back to normal offense), plus possibly 3B (Sandoval produce over full season) and RF (someone got to do better than what Winn provided, either Schierholtz or Bowker), leaving LF for a possible free agent or trade acquisition for an upgrade.

Plus, over the last two months of the 2009 season, after the acquisitions for the offense, the team averaged 4.24 runs per game. Obviously, a big chunk of that was from Uribe (who according to the press conference is looking to go free agent, not surprising), but what I wanted to show is that improvements we already have now at 2B, 1B, and SS (relative to 2009), should be at least equivalent to that uptick in offense, meaning that is not a pipe dream that the offense could be improved over last year's 4.06 runs scored without any new additions.

Still, hopefully the Giants can take a calculated risk in the free agent market and improve the team to get us to the 90+ win range. And not just by adding a power hitter but also by adding a #5 starter who can do better than what we got from our #5 starters, Randy Johnson, Ryan Sadowski, and Joe Martinez (obviously, Brad Penny did pretty well). Plus, if Sanchez can continue to improve, that would also help too. Same with Zito.

As I've been noting, I'm happy with how the Giants are set up for 2010. We have clear areas of possible improvements in both our offense and pitching that look like we have a pretty good chance of improving on the number of wins we get in 2010 over 2009. Still, enough could go wrong that we could take a step back in 2010 too.

As much as I would like to see Posey starting, I think the Giants are going to follow the Orioles/Weiters route and acquire a catcher to be the starter holding the seat warm for Posey in 2010. Given that Weiters is considered a better hitter than Posey and yet did not do that well in the majors until his last month, it might behoove the Giants to keep Posey in AAA for most of 2010, and just get him ready for the starting job in 2011. Research by Baseball Foreaster showed that it is usually better to keep the prospects in AAA for a whole year in order to have a better feel for the prospect's true abilities and have a better chance that he succeeds when he does make the majors, than to assume his good hitting over a partial season will hold up on the majors.

According to the news from the press conference announcing Sanchez's deal, Sabean "sees a late-developing free-agent market, particularly for the Giants, because he feels no desperation to sign players." That does not preclude the Giants from pursuing one of the bigger names (Holliday and Bay) as they are usually late developing too, particularly Boras clients. But it probably does mean that it will be a relatively slow off-season for Giants news, as the Giants will not be actively pursuing many (if any) free agents for a quick signing. That probably means no quick signing of a reliever, like we did last year with Affeldt and Howry, or a LF, at least initially. And that could have been predicted once the season ended, not a lot of spots open on the team, as much as people want wholesale changes on offense.

Late (meaning Jan/Feb 2010) signings for LF, RF, 1B, and 3B (and I suppose C) are possible as the Giants take a chance on somebody and giving them a chance to win a starting spot or a vet is unsigned and looking for a spot. That's also when teams have released arbitration eligible players in December and they could be available in that time frame and desperate for a shot somewhere, anywhere. I would also throw out Dallas McPherson's name out there, if he's healthy and hitting in spring, he could push Sandoval to 1B and get a semi-starting job at 3B.

Sabean also noted that he's working on stabilizing the top of the order (1-4), and the only way we can stabilize leadoff is via signing a free agent leadoff hitter. The premier free agent there would be Chone Figgins, who could play 3B or LF for us full-time, or move around as needed, though he would probably prefer to be in one spot, and as a free agent, that could become something that he is looking for in a team. If they got him, the Giants would be set at three of those spots: Figgins, Sanchez, and, of course, Sandoval, and might leave batting 3rd open for Schierholtz or Bowker to try to win.

Also, since they are looking at Franchez batting 3rd, I have to assume that could mean Renteria 2nd, Franchez 3rd, and Sandoval 4th. The news keep on focusing on getting a cleanup hitter, but Sandoval is that already, in my opinion, so they could go this route during the season. And that would work if Renteria was back to his normal self (heck, if he's back to his normal self, he would probably be better off hitting 3rd).