Your 2015 Giants: Second Half Thoughts

Given that this is often considered the halfway point for the season, I thought I would write about some current topics and thoughts on the second half, as well as playoff thoughts.

Your 2015 Giants: Rotation Judgement Day

Per the beat writers, the Giants brain trust are spending this off day to discuss the pitching rotation for the near future, when Peavy and Cain come off the DL (Peavy's 30-day rehab is over, so he should be back by weekend; Cain probably one or two rehab starts away, Sabean gave a good report on his last MiLB start).

Your 2015 Giants: Opening Day Roster

The 25-man roster has been settled.  Extra Baggs.  Chron. SFGiants.com

Pitching Staff (probable rotation):  Bumgarner, Peavy, Cain, Hudson, Lincecum;  but Vogelsong probably takes over Peavy's first start and then it sounds like the Giants plan to insert (or skip) pitchers as needed this season in order to maximize who they got facing any particular opponent of interest (like the Bridegrooms), using Vogie and Petit as needed.  There will not be a 6-man rotation.  Bullpen:  Casilla as closer, Romo (who will sub as closer as needed Bochy noted), Affeldt, Lopez, Machi, and Kontos (both relievers kept).

Starting (probable) lineup:  Aoki, Panik, Pagan, Posey, Belt, McGehee, Blanco, Crawford.  Bench:  Hanchez, Arias, Duffy, Maxwell.

To make this roster work, the Giants did the following moves.  DLed Pence, Ishikawa, and Cordier.  DFAed Ehire Adrianza.  

Your 2015 Giants: Final Roster Battles

With the news of Justin Maxwell being signed by the Giants to a $1M contract (and the DFA of Gary Brown to open up a 40-man roster spot), the Giants are left with only two more roster battles:  last bullpen spot and last MI bench spot.

Your 2015 Giants: Vogie In!

As much as I thought that Vogelsong's exclamation at the victory parade for the 2014 Championship was his final words as a Giant - "Vogie Out!" - because of the full rotation we have plus Petit, a part of me was hoping beyond hope that the Giants could retain him.

That has come true, after various rumors of interest on the part of teams, then him flying into Houston, apparently THAT close to signing with them, it has been reported that Vogelsong will return to the Giants with a $4M deal with incentives (probably related to IP).  He had made it clear numerous times that he, in an ideal world, would return to the Giants, the team he loved so much that he begged for a job with the Giants, after being offered a spot with the Dodgers (they did so in 2011 and the rest is history...).  

He acknowledges that his role on the team is undefined, and he says he's fine with it, as he will take the ball when they give it to him and give it back when they ask for it back.  He (and particularly his wife) is happy to be back home in SF.

No news on who is next to be removed off of the 40-man roster.

FYI, Schulman tweeted that Scutaro was released with the thought that if a spot opens up early in the season (no DL outside of the season), they would add him to the roster and immediately put him on the 60-day DL.  I guess that would add to his MLB time for pension purposes.

ogc thoughts

Unless the Giants go with the 6-man rotation idea (my pet idea I've been pushing; however, according to Schulman tweet, none of the Giants upper brass is enamored with that idea), my best guess is that Vogelsong is rotation insurance and that he'll get first shot at the rotation should anything open up.

If the disaster scenario don't happen and all five starters keep their current spot - Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, Peavy, Lincecum, in that order - Vogelsong will get a spot in the bullpen, making the bullpen pretty set right now:  Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Vogelsong, Petit, with only one spot open.  Then Machi, Kontos, Strickland, and maybe Okert and Hall too, will battle for that last spot (Gutierrez too, I suppose, since he rejoined the team in the minors after being DFAed).

Hudson Rest Scenario

One scenario that Krukow laid out was that Hudson's recovery could extend into the first part of the season and that it would not be the worse thing to happen.  He's 40 now and extra rest like that would make him stronger later in the season.   So the idea here is to put Huddy on the DL to start the season, to rest up and get to 100% (and not just functional), with Vogie taking over the starting spot.  When Hudson is ready to return to the roster, I would guess that most probably, Vogie will be pushed to the bullpen unless another starter is having a really tough time (meaning, mostly, Lincecum, but we all know the question marks with everyone else:  Bumgarner's 270 IP, 4000+ pitches in 2014, Cain's own recovery, Peavy's reverting to first half or second half 2014 form, Lincecum able to dominate consistently with his Dad again helping game to game).

Thinking it over a lot, I think that this scenario makes the most sense.  Hudson probably would be ready by spring training and be able to take the starting mound to start the season, but probably not at 100% given his age and that the surgery just happened in late December.   Why not sign Vogelsong to start the season in his place, then see where the team is when Hudson is ready?  There are enough question marks that such a risk mitigation move would make a lot of sense.

Plus, Vogelsong really wanted to return to the team and he's at the age where he's not going to get a lot of chances to win it all again, better to take reduced role with potential champs than veteran teacher role with a losing team trying to transition back into the fast lane.  There's time enough to take such a role down the line as a coach if he wanted.

In addition, that allows the Giants to keep both Machi and presumably Kontos on the roster longer.  Both have done well in the majors for the Giants and both are out of options, I believe, so the Giants most likely will probably trade one off instead of DFAing him.   They would probably get more value from either player by trading in the middle of the coming season than they would trading them during spring, though if a team suddenly (injury) had need, they could do the trade then and let Strickland or Hall or Okert come up instead.
I like both, but neither has really distinguished themselves in the playoffs, certainly not like our four-some of Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez (and just imagine if Wilson had been able to stay healthy...).   And I'm torn between the two.  Machi is the only guy with a great fastball in our bullpen, so that is one great reason to keep him.  Kontos, on the other hand, is only 30 YO (Machi will be 33) and has a good slider to strike out people.  I think ultimately youth and specialty pitch will win over age and possibly fading fastball (Machi's K-rate went down a lot in 2014 vs. 2013).  But the Giants will do what they think is right, so it will be interesting what happens.

Other Scenarios

Obviously, if any other starter should need to be replaced, be it injury or poor performance, Vogelsong will probably be the first in line to take his spot.  Should the rotation stay healthy and productive together, he'll probably be the spot starter who will get a few middle innings relief jobs to keep his pitches sharp, while Petit will be the full-time long relief and occasional spot starter, especially given that Petit has done very well when placed in the rotation, but not as well when spot starting.   Sabean in an interview a day or two ago, noted that Petit will be a "super reliever", which suggests that he'll be used like Lincecum was in the 2012 playoffs, much like how I was hoping that Lincecum would do for the Giants at some point when he's no longer starter material.

I'm just happy he's back with the team, and (unfortunately for him) hope that he's stuck in the bullpen all season long.  But hopefully he'll be plenty rested and ready to do great things in the playoffs, should we make it in (and I think we should).

Go Giants!

Your 2014 Giants: World Series Game 3: Nobody More Ready

That's reassuring words to hear from our starting pitcher, Tim Hudson (tweet from Pavlovic):

What I've hoped and dreamed for my whole career is finally here. There's not going to be anybody on field more ready than I am."

Also, had to share this great picture of Buster, beautiful:

ogc thoughts

Not a lot of positives from the game.  Peavy had a DIS start, just could not throw strikes to save him life, but was able to limit the damage until that fateful inning.  Of course, he got help from Machi and Strickland to burn the rest of the structure.  The hitters was able to get a lot of hits, but never the one to open the game up for us.  Bochy again was sub-optimal in using the pen, taking a close game and blowing it apart with Machi and Strickland.  Even the one positive, Lincecum's outing, turned into a negative when he felt tightness in his back (reports today I see on twitter notes that he's OK and probable for tomorrow, pending MRI results).

But, as I noted in the Cards series, I'm sad we lost game 2, but I didn't think that they would go the whole series without a loss.  Lick our wounds, come back fighting in Game 3.

Pondering Peavy

And I was worried about that because Peavy has not been very dominating in the playoffs.  He can limit the damage for the most part, but then the manager saves him by taking him out early.  Frankly, I would have took out Peavy sooner, after he gave us 5 OK innings.  At that point, he had only given up 2 runs, but had walked two while only striking out one.  That's a 2 PQS, not good, not bad, though close to bad, and much like he had done previously.  Leaving him in dropped his PQS into disaster territory.

So first, I'm wondering, should the series go to 6 games, do we start Peavy?  I think if Petit hasn't pitched much up to that point, we might see him start game 6 over Peavy.  Bochy has skipped a pitcher before during the playoffs, like they did with Bumgarner in 2012, so it is not unprecedented.   And really, I would even go with Lincecum paired with Petit even if Petit had pitched and could only give a couple of innings relief.  Peavy has shown nothing in his playoff career, and now I'm seriously considering changing my mind about re-signing him for 2015, though we still need a starter for 2015 (though that could be Petit instead, with Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, and Lincecum, who hopefully will be better after an off-season getting back his old mechanics by working with his dad).

Sticking With Strickland

It's not called learning pains for nothing.  Some people just have it immediately, like K-Rod did, but for whatever reasons, Strickland is struggling.  I wouldn't mind if Bochy uses him again, but obviously got to chose the spots.

I still believe in his talent.  He has only 12.1 IP in his MLB career, 5.1 IP of which were in the playoffs.  His baptism in fire.  But 9 K's in 7 IP with only 5 hits and zero walks in the regular season, 32.5 IP in AA, with only 25 hits and 4 (!) walks vs. 48 K's for a 12.00 K/BB ratio (remember 2 is good and you want at least 2.4 from your best pitchers;  so yeah, that's elite, that's like Bumgarner's ratio in high school, Madison's best as pro was in Augusta with a 7.81 K/BB).  That's a 12.1 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 for Hunter in AA.

And his blow-up reminds me of another Giant:  Bumgarner.  I'll never forget about him flinging the ball out of the stadium in AAA early in the 2010 season when he got really angry, I think at an umpire's bad call.  Need that type of passion during the game, as well as "move on" attitude afterward, to be an effective closer, and he apparently has this quality.

No Mas Machi

I usually applaud Bochy for his moves, but I felt that he was late in his changes again.  As noted above, I would have took out Peavy after he got 5 good innings out of him, plus then this would have let Machi pitch with no runners on, especially since he has not really had a clean appearance so far this season except for his first one out relief appearance.  Since then it has been a hit parade, as well as run parade.

Instead, he faced two runners on with no outs and gave up another hit.  I think Bochy is better off using Machi in low pressure situations, he's obviously battling some sort of nerves, it happens to the best of us, same as Strickland.  But after this amount of time, I think you use him in garbage time and big leads, if he gets in trouble, stop him quick and bring in the Big Boys, Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, and Casilla.

Liking Lincecum

I'm not sure what the issue was with not using Lincecum, unless he was suffering from some sort of extreme fatigue or something, or working on mechanics (but then why carry him when Kontos could have contributed).  But I still believe in Timmy and he delivered almost two innings of dominance when his back stiffened, and he had to leave the game.

Report from Baggarly is that he has suffered issues like this since high school, when he had his growth spurts and they would come and go, but never linger.  His MRI, just for precaution, came out clean as well.  He threw a normal session today and said that he felt normal and declared himself ready for Game 3 use.  Remember his rubber arm, as I agree with Baggarly that he has moved ahead of Machi and Strickland on the bullpen totem pole, you might see Lincecum bridge the middle innings as necessary in the rest of the games, he says that he can go every day.  Good time to test this out given Machi, Strickland, and Peavy's problems getting hitters out.

In Bochy I Trust

I've been a bit concerned about Bochy's bullpen usage during these playoffs, and I don't think the leopard has changed his spots, so I have been thinking that Bochy needed to see how much he can depend on Machi and Strickland during the playoffs, and the only way to do that is to use them.  Same with Peavy.  They all let him down, and, thinking back, most players have delivered for the most part, and when not, apparently there was something to fix, and they bring him back fine, like Bumgarner in 2012.  Meanwhile, he didn't need to use Lincecum, so why tire him out when you can run other guys out there, but when he needed him to eat innings yesterday, he did.

So, if this theory is correct, we should see a drastic change in bullpen usage going forward.  Lincecum would be used like he was in 2012, every game if necessary.  Machi and Strickland will get to face 1-3 batters, see how it goes, start them in a clean inning.  Bochy has been the master of the bullpen for ages now, and still, most of the time this off-season, so my best guess is that he's testing to see who he can rely on.

Happy with Huddy

He has come through for us this post-season.  Two DOM starts, and I am encouraged by this because it was exactly what he did early in the season when he was healthy and well rested.  It's been what he's been doing for the last 13 seasons, methodically, professionally, La Machine.  3.57 ERA this season, 3.45 ERA for his career, 3.38 ERA since his TJS.  This is why I wanted the Giants to sign him, and he has delivered in spades.

Here is what I wrote in my other post:

Game 3 is also a bit of a toss-up, based on DOM, but I give the edge to the Giants.  Both pitchers have similar DOM% for the season, but while Hudson has two DOM starts so far in the post-season, Guthrie has none, not even getting a start in the ALDS, and throwing a 2 PQS in the ALCS, where he only had 2 K's in 5 IP but 2 BB's.   

But it is the World Series, the first for Hudson.  Of course, he beat the pressure in the NLCS and had a 4 PQS start there, winning his start.  And he was masterful, with 5 K's and 0 walks in 6.1 IP.  Again, could be a turning point for the Giants here, again, as Bochy understands must wins.

I still think we have the edge on paper, but as the saying goes, that's why we play these games.  Another positives are these (tweets from Baggarly):

Tim Hudson said he's physically and mentally ready to pitch the biggest game of his life.
— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) October 24, 2014

Hudson wouldn't go into specifics on all that went into his hip rehab, but clearly there was a lot. "Medicine's a beautiful thing," he said.
— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) October 24, 2014

Basically, Hudson was on a downward trend with his PQS after he skipped a start earlier this season, finally getting worse and worse until his last start of the season.  By that point, it was reported that he had been battling some sort of hip issue.  Without a skipped start, but with the medicine,  he has had three straight DOM starts.  And with 10 days of rest, he should be well rested again.

So it should be a good game on our side.  Not as sure a thing for Guthrie, but he's been good in the regular season, and perhaps his first playoff start was just a fluke and he delivers.  But I like our chances, it was Hudson who led us in the early going, not Bumgarner, who was struggling a bit with the heavy mental load of being the ace (he had been aces for a long time until then, a machine; he's been a machine since the beginning of May).

Plus, our hitters are pretty good at avoiding strikeouts and getting walks, and Guthrie is particularly susceptible to left-handed hitters, of which we have a lineup full of them, plus Posey and Pence who hit RHP and LHP almost equally well, and he already have trouble striking out hitters in general, so the Giants should be putting a lot of balls into play against him, much like KC against Peavy.

I feel pretty good about this game, Go Giants!