Your 2013 Giants: International Signings Rankings

Sickel's Minor League Ball recently published a post on the ranking of International Signings in 2012.  The Giants did well, signing two of the Top 10 free agents:  Gustavo Cabrera (OF) and Nathanael Javier (3B).

• Gustavo Cabrera (5th): Solid overall package of tools. A lot of potential with the bat.
• Nathanael Javier (10th):  Nice swing, athletic. Has a few bad habits defensively. Could be very good all around player.

And if I understand that ranking well enough, this ranking includes all international signings, including players not traditionally considered part of the international signing date that occurs mid-year, if I understand things right, there are at least a couple of Cuban defectors ahead of Cabrera plus the Korean pitcher the Dodgers signed.  If you take them out, then only Beras is now ahead of Cabrera, and you move everyone up 4 spots, to cover just the international signings governed by the mid-year deadline.

That is similar to a ranking that Mayo did last season just before the signings started:

• Gustavo Cabrera (1st): Cabrera has dazzled scouts with his bat speed, hitting mechanics and raw power, but he has also opened eyes with his instincts on the bases. His all-around speed combined with his aggressive style, strong arm and athletic body have brought about comparisons to Arizona outfielder Justin Upton when he was the same age. Cabrera’s prior experience in the United States could prove to be an advantage in his development.
• Nathanael Javier (11th): The big third baseman is considered a solid all-around player and is projected to hit for average and power in the future. He has impressed scouts with his large body frame, lean muscle mass and high baseball IQ. He appears to have the perfect body for third base but might have to move to first base if he gets too big to play the position. Some believe Javier is second only to Gustavo Cabrera and Wendell Rijo in terms of upside and overall talent. Javier just might have all the tools Major League scouts look for in a prospect, and he has the potential to be a special bat with plus power.

With the adjustment, these are close, Cabrera is 2nd in Sickel's, 1st in Mayo, Javier 6th in Sickel's, 11th in Mayo's.  

ogc thoughts

Given the article on top prospects by BA the other day (and Mayo), I thought this is a good point to remind people that we had two really good signings last season on the International front.  I think the Giants did well to take advantage of a level playing field (every team had the same amount that they could spend on international signings) and concentrate their spending on two top prospects (again, basically two of the top 10), because there will be a high to low budget slot assigned like in the amateur draft, based on win/loss record, starting in 2013 for all the teams, and the Giants will be at a disadvantage then, relative to most teams.  Though, to their advantage, they are looking to supplement their farm system with international signings, and went for the biggest bang for the buck, instead of going for volume.  Other teams that are more desperate for more bodies with some talent than a lot of talent in one body might have spread out their set budget across more prospects.

On top of that, these signings complement nicely all the pitchers we picked up in the June amateur draft, and gives the Giants some additional depth at 3B, which sooner than later will need a replacement, as Pablo will surely eat his way to 1B in a few years (or off of our team).  Currently, only Duvall look like a possible replacement in a couple of years.

In addition, I've been thinking that 3B might be a good position to move Posey to at some point in the future.  It is not as dangerous there as 2B, physically, and his bat so far would be considered superior there still.  He once was a SS, and while not of MLB quality, he obviously has the arm for it and the reaction to handle the hot corner.    Assuming Posey does move, Susac and Hector appears to be the most likely contenders to take over from Buster at that point.  In any case, I hope the Giants sign Buster to a long term contract this spring, that is the thing I most want to see (followed by a deal with Lincecum long-term).

And the OF is not set either, we will have Pagan, but the early 30's are treacherous area for baseball players, and we might have Pence, but again, he'll be in his 30's as well.   I don't know if Blanco, Kieschnick,  Peguero (though he would be nice for an "All P" outfield), or Brown will be an answer in the future either, though I'm still very hopeful of Brown.  So Gustavo is a very nice injection of talent into that area of player development.  And comparisons with Justin Upton is very nice, very nice indeed.  I recall reading that had the new budget system not been in place, Cabrera probably would have gotten $3M+, so he could be a bigger talent than AnVil or RafRod ever were.

Your 2012 Giants: International Free Agent Signing Day

The Giants made a big splash today by signing two top prospects, Gustavo Cabrera and Natanael Javier.

BA's Announcement on Cabrera, who they ranked #5:

Dominican center fielder Gustavo Cabrera, the fifth-ranked international prospect for July 2, has signed with the Giants for $1.3 million. 

Cabrera, who is 6 feet, 190 pounds, is a 16-year-old righthanded hitter who stands out for his tools and athleticism. Several scouts believe Cabrera has the best tools in Latin America, though his bat is the main question mark. He played in the Dominican Prospect League and trained with Christian Batista, who is known as “Niche.”

ESPN's pre-signing article noted: "Cabrera is a five-tool center fielder who has been evaluated by all MLB clubs, but sources say he agreed to an offer weeks ago and it will be announced next Monday."  Apparently the Giants were the ones who had him eyeballed already.   This sounds almost like the Villalona signing where the Giants had developed the relationship long ago and won the trust of the family.

MLB.com ranked Cabrera #1:

Cabrera has dazzled scouts with his bat speed, hitting mechanics and raw power, but he has also opened eyes with his instincts on the bases. In other words, he can run, too. His all-around speed combined with his aggressive style, strong arm and athletic body have brought about comparisons to Arizona outfielder Justin Upton when he was the same age. 

Cabrera’s prior experience in the United States could prove to be an advantage in his development. Last year, he was named the MVP at the 2011 RBI World Series in Minnesota and also participated in a showcase in Orlando with his trainer. This year, he starred in the Dominican Prospect League and was part of the league’s All-Star travel squad that played exhibition games and participated in showcases at big league sites in Arizona and Florida during Spring Training. 

The biggest knock on Cabrera is the notion that he only has one gear: full speed. He is still harnessing his skills and working on the fine art of playing under control.

BA's note on Javier, who was not in their Top 20 ranking:

The Giants have agreed signed 16-year-old Natanael Javier from the Dominican Republic for $475,000. 

Javier, 16, is a big-framed third baseman at 6-foot-3, 200 pounds. A righthanded hitter, Javier was named the MVP of the Dominican Prospect League's PG International Series all-tournament game last month when he went 3-for-3 with a double. He trains with Basilio Vizcaino, who is known as "Cachaza."

MLB.com ranked Javier #11:

Javier comes from a baseball family. The younger brother of Sony Javier, a prospect with Toronto, and the son of Narciso Tapia, a trainer in the Boca Chica area, baseball is in the young prospect’s blood. 

The big third baseman is considered a solid all-around player and is projected to hit for average and power in the future. He has impressed scouts with his large body frame, lean muscle mass and high baseball IQ. He appears to have the perfect body for third base but might have to move to first base if he gets too big to play the position. 

Some believe Javier is second only to Gustavo Cabrera and Wendell Rijo in terms of upside and overall talent. Javier just might have all the tools Major League scouts look for in a prospect, and he has the potential to be a special bat with plus power. 

Trained by Basilio Vizcaino in Santo Domingo, Javier starred in the Dominican Prospect League and was a member of the league’s All-Star travel squad that at big league camps during Spring Training.

Perfect Games had this note on them from May:

The 2012 DPL class is brimming with talent, and six of the top 10 top international prospects (according to PG scouting reports and MLB.com rankings) are expected to be in attendance at this event. They include top-ranked outfielder Gustavo Cabrera, along with shortstops Amaurys Minier, Richard Urena and Frandy De La Rosa; middle-infielder Wandell Rijo and third baseman Nathanael Javier. 

Perfect Game had this to say about Cabrera after DPL prospects performed for scouts in a series of workouts and in several games during a tour of Florida and Arizona in March: 

“Cabrera has a tightly wound athletic body reminiscent of Justin Upton. In fact, Cabrera’s tools at the same age are very reminiscent of Upton’s. He ran the 60 in 6.34 seconds in Arizona and has an explosive first step that enables him to steal bases at will (he had 5 steals in one game in Florida) and the aggressiveness and instincts to use his speed. He throws 90-plus mph from the outfield with a very quick release and his speed will give him well above average range at any outfield position.”

So Perfect Games ranked both in their Top 10 and Gustavo their #1 ranked prospect.


Giants Thoughts

Giants swoop in again and make the big signings, making many fans happy, particularly the prospect hounds, like Shankbone. I feel more comfortable with the Cabrera signing, despite its size and the poor history of top international prospects doing well, because he apparently has played games in some of the top U.S. amateur showcases, as noted in the MLB.com announcement.  That to me would give our scouts better proof points on how his talent compares with other U.S. amateur talents.

The announcement also noted that the Giants spent a total of $1.8M on the two (BA notes exactly ($1.775M).  With a $2.9M cap on spending for all teams, the Giants have $1.125M left to spend on other International free agents.  Given the stat I heard on KNBR today, that 20% of all major leaguers are from the Dominican Republic, the Giants need to be active there and have been, picking up Angel Villalona previously (now playing in the Dominican Summer League) and Rafael Rodriguez (now playing for Augusta and showing some potential there now).

Here is what the announcement said about the two prospects:

From Santo Domingo Norte, Dominican Republic, Cabrera's bat speed, raw power and overall athleticism in the field has brought comparisons to Arizona's Justin Upton. In 2011, Cabrera was named the RBI World Series MVP in Minnesota, and also participated in a showcase in Orlando, Fla. He played in Spring Training exhibition games this year as part of the Dominican Prospect League's All-Star travel squad.

Also from Santo Domingo, the 16-year-old Javier projects as a solid future option at third base. Possessing discipline at the plate, a large body frame and a high baseball IQ, Javier could bypass Chris Dominguez, Conor Gillaspie (Triple-A Fresno) and Adam Duvall (Class A San Jose) as the team's future at third base.

The Giants have always liked players with high baseball IQ.

It was also noted that in future years, the cap will depend on the team's winning percentage and the range will be from $1.7M to $4.8M.  Assuming the Giants will be on the lower end since they should be competitive, they did the right thing to spend so much and dive right in, because they might not have as much spending cap in future years.

Both sound very intriguing and of high potential.  Both appear to have plus power potential and Cabrera appears to have five tools, though his hit tool is most suspect.  Justin Upton appears to be the common comp for Cabrera, bringing a combination of speed and power, plus a great arm.  While Javier got a much lower signing bonus, one noted that he was second only to Cabrera and another player in terms of upside and talent, so that is pretty good, two of the top three players in upside and talent.  And the Giants still have $1.1M to spend on other prospects, so they might not be done yet.

Giants 2010 International Scene

Great article regarding the top twelve international free agents in Latin America on MLB Fanhouse.  It was written by a former MLB scout.

The top rated Dominican is Eskarlin Vasquez, OF and the Giants are pursuing him:  "As it sits right now, Vasquez appears to be the top all-around position player in the class. A right fielder with a strong arm, Vasquez has shown some good power at the dish and could get a bonus north of $2 million. The San Francisco Giants are considered among the favorites at this stage to land him, but several clubs will be involved." 

Sounds pretty good and is a good sign that the Giants will continue pursuing top talent in the region.  While the failure rate for the top picks have been high (for every one that made it on Baseball America's Top signing bonus list, it seems like two or three fails big time), basically you have to play the game if you hope to find someone in this market who can make a difference.

International Free Agency: Giants Strike Out on Wagner

With the period opening to sign international free agents, the name the Giants were most associated with was OF Wagner Mateo. Unfortunately, according to reports from ESPN.com's Jorge Arangure (as reported by MLBTradeRumors.com), it looks like the Cardinals will beat out the Giants to Wagner Mateo. They reportedly will sign him to a $3.1M bonus; the Giants apparently nearly offered him $3.5M but backed off at the last minute. (Why they couldn't offer $3.2M, I'm not sure).

With Mateo off the plate, the name I'm hearing the Giants pursuing is catcher Jacob Beltre. Jorge, in his Twitter account, noted that BA speculated this and that this makes sense since he is the biggest hitter left, aside from Miguel Angel Sano.

Of course, last year the Giants signed Rafael Rodriguez and before that signed Angel Villalona.

International Signing Season Starts: Giants Sign Another Angel

The international signing season started and while a number of teams have busted out their piggy banks and made some big signings - A's making the biggest with $4.25M for highly touted pitcher Michael Inoa - the Giants did not make the big signing but at least did get someone, Luis Angel Mateo. Mateo signed with the Giants on Wednesday, the first day international prospects are eligible to sign with major league clubs. The terms were not disclosed, which is the way the Giants usually does it. The amount might leak out somewhere in the next few days.

Here are his stats, which I got from here:

• a 16-year-old Dominican righthander
• 6' 3", 175 pounds (so he's a slim one, hopefully don't have to worry about him ballooning)
• John Barr on Mateo: "The Giants are very pleased to be able to sign Luis Mateo. He is a young, strong pitcher who shows good command of two pitches with a plus breaking ball. Today is the beginning of the signing season, and we will continue to be aggressive in signing players both domestically and internationally.”

Giants Thoughts

That is good to hear about the Giants intentions to be aggressive in signing players both domestically and internationally. Bodes well for signing Posey, Gillaspie, and Kieschnick, plus perhaps picking up that rumored Vlad-like Dominican prospect for $2.5M. That's the only way to go right now as the Giants rebuild, it's the biggest no-brainer in the history of MLB baseball, but at least they are doing it right.

Hard to imagine a 16 year old with good command of two pitches and a plus breaking ball, but given the success of the Giants with pitching, I will have to take their word for it. If he can develop nicely, he'll be part of the group of pitchers coming in after the third major wave when Bumgarner and Alderson make it to the majors (assuming they continue to develop). My assumption here is that the first wave was composed of Lowry, Cain, and Correia, among others, and next wave of Lincecum, Sanchez, and Wilson, among others. Bumgarner and Alderson will probably be the lead of the next (third) wave, with maybe Sosa, Wilber Bucardo, and others.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching

This was what I was talking about long ago when I wrote about Sabean and his propensity toward pitching. When you develop a specialty, skill, in assessing this type of talent, this focus will pay off over time as your cup of pitching talent fills up until you reach the top and then will have a lot left over to trade away to get what you need.

Because there is a flexibility with pitchers that you don't get with position players: each pitcher can theoretically fill almost any of up to 12 positions on the team. If he is good enough, he can fill any spot in the rotation. Even if he is a back of the rotation starter, he can probably still fill any of the bullpen positions as well.

However, if you have a position player, he really can fill maybe 2 starting positions, at best. For while a bullpen pitcher can be very valuable to a team, being used regularly, a bench player is not really that valuable to most teams, unless he can really hit well, just not good enough to make up for his bad defense. That limitation makes it harder for that player to contribute to your team and thus to any other team, you have to find a team who really needs that position player to find a trading partner. As well, that limits the talent you get back for your position player, a limitation that doesn't apply to pitchers as much (their inherent health risk is, however).

I will have to update that article I wrote long ago, probably after my "Hey" Business Plan series.