Your 2026 Giants: Signs Three Time Batting Champ, Luis Arraez

Per reports (MLB, NBC) three time batting champ, Luis Arraez, has signed with the Giants for one year at $12M. He will start at second base.

Your 2026 Giants: Harrison Bader Signing

Per reports, Harrison Bader agreed to two year contract with the Giants for $20.5M, and incentives could raise that to $21.0M.  Posey reported that Bader will play CF, where he has won a gold glove before.

Posey also noted that Jung Hoo Lee took the news of moving to RF well, and Lee was also told that he would still get starts in CF, which fits what Vitello said in a recent interview, that the starters in the outfield will be fluid. Apparently Lee has played a lot of RF in KBO, and his StatCast physical stats compared well with other MLB RF, so they expect him to be good defensively there. 

To clear space on the 40 man, they traded pitcher Kai-Wei Teng to the Astros, for a catcher, Jameel Vlattoel and international a lot money. 

Your 2025 Giants: Justin Time - Verlander Signs for One Year, $15M

As reported by various sources, future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander signed with the Giants for one year, $15M.  There are a couple of good analyses on why he might be a good signing:

• Fangraphs
• The Athletic

Your 2025 Giants: Losing Draft Picks Is Not So Bad

The Giants has been contemplating signing QO players like Adames and Burnes this offseason, which would cost draft picks, and with the signing of Adames, they have now lost their second and fifth round picks.

Signing Burnes as well as Adames would tthen cost the team its second, third, fifth and sixth selections, part of the price the Giants paid for exceeding the luxury-tax threshold while finishing 80-82.

I thought I would write on the odds of these draft picks ever amounting to a good player, given how much fans worry about losing draft picks.  Like I wrote almost 20 years ago when I analyzed the Michael Tucker punted pick, you are losing a lottery ticket with steep odds of winning, while gaining a MLB caliber player.

Your 2025 Giants: Willy Adames Signed for 7 year, $182M

As reported, the Giants signed SS Willy Adames to a 7 year, $182M contract, which beats out Posey's contract for the largest in Giants history.

Here are some good articles on the signing:

• In Adames, Giants got top target with 'sterling, sparkling' reputation
• Posey reveals why Adames became Giants' top free agency choice
• Brewers manager gushes over ‘special' Giants addition Adames

Your 2024 Giants: Signed Matt Chapman to. 1-year, 2-year, 3-year or 4-year Contract

I just realized I should post on the signing of Matt Chapman (sorry, been busy dealing with leaking pipes ruining walls and engine mounts failing on my car...).  Per NBC Sports,

2024: $16 million salary, plus $2 million signing bonus

2025: $17 million player option or a $2 million buyout

2026: $18 million player option or a $3 million buyout

2027: $20 million mutual option or $1 million buyout

 So, here are the scenarios as far as I can tell:

• It's $20M if he opts out after one year ($18M plus $2M buyout)
• It's $38M if he opts out after two years ($18M /$17M plus $3M buyout)
• It's $54M if he opts out after three years ($18M/$17M/$18$ plus $1M buyout) or if the Giants buy him out to void the fourth year
• It's $73M if he stays the full four years

Whew!  It can cover his 31-34 YO seasons, depending on the opt out/ins.  Based on $8M/WAR, that's 2.5 WAR in 2024, 2.25 WAR in 2025, 2.0 WAR in 2026, and 2.4 WAR in 2027, for a total of 9.15 WAR to be produced in the four seasons.

Your 2024 Giants are now Soler Powered

Per tweet last night by Susan Slusser, Jorge Soler will sign with the Giants.  Per reporting from The Athletic, it will be for 3 years, $42M, no word on any other contract terms, but there does not appear to be any opt outs.  The rumor mill had it that Soler wanted three years, and the Giants eventually gave him that, though perhaps less per season.

Your 2024 Giants: Crossing Jordan Hicks - Signed for 4 years, $44M

The Giants signed reliever Jordan Hicks for 4 years, $44M, and he will be given the opportunity to become a starter with the Giants.  

Your 2024 Giants: Jung Hoo Lee is the Giants new CF

As announced and formally presented in the Friday press conference (seems prudent after last year to wait), Jung Hoo Lee has been signed to a six year deal for $113M with a player opt-out after four seasons. Per Andy Baggarly of The Athletic (subscription required):

Lee will receive a $5 million signing bonus and receive salaries of $7 million in 2024, $16 million in 2025, $22 million in 2026, $22 million in 2027, $20.5 million in 2028, and $20.5 million in 2029. He also has the right to opt out of his contract after the 2027 season.

They will also pay nearly $19M in Posting Fee to Lee's former team, the Kiwoom Heroes. Thus, they are paying out $132M for him, over the life of the contract. And the $19M does not get reduced if he should opt out after 2027.

There are a few other good article on Jung Hoo:

• Fangraphs: 2024 Top 50 MLB Free Agents
• Lee has been evaluated as a Top 100-quality prospect at FanGraphs since the 2020 KBO season. He is an incredibly skilled contact and defense-oriented outfielder with an important baseball lineage.
• Jung-Hoo’s career began in precocious fashion, as he was the first player in KBO history to go straight from high school to their top level of play; he won Rookie of the Year as an 18-year-old in 2017. Since arriving in the league, Lee has a career .340/.407/.491 line, has made elite rates of contact (roughly 5.5% K% and 11% BB% combined the last two seasons), and has had a couple of years in which he also hit for meaningful power. 
• Lee’s carrying tool is his Jedi-esque bat control, which he uses to deflect pitches all over the strike zone to all fields. His swing is incredibly cool and fun to watch, as Lee’s open stance comes closed very early before he takes a huge stride back toward the pitcher and unwinds from the ground up... His hand-eye coordination and ability to manipulate the barrel is amazing, however. 
• Hitters in Asian pro leagues tend to face premium velocity less often than upper-level domestic prospects and it creates a wide error bar in projecting whether or not their hit tools will translate. Using Synergy to isolate Lee’s performance against fastballs at or above the MLB average (93 mph and up) yields just 154 pitches combined throughout the last two seasons; he slashed .268/.348/.415 against them. Bump the bottom boundary up to 94 mph and he slashed .276/.300/.379 across 96 pitches. 
• If Lee doesn’t end up hitting for power, his center field defense will help buoy his overall contribution to a team. He’s a plus runner with above-average range and ball skills, and a plus arm. ... The most likely forecast is somewhere in the middle, and here Lee projects as a table-setting center fielder without much pop, though whatever the case, teams should be prepared to make a multi-year project out of Lee so he has time to adjust in the same ways Ha-Seong Kim has.
• Fangraphs: International Professional Players
• Current Superstars includes Jung Hoo Lee
• Fangraphs: Giants Finally Make a Free Agent Splash with Jung Hoo Lee Signing
• Lee immediately becomes the best defensive center fielder in a crowded Giants outfield group that was toward the bottom of the league in production last year. He’s a plus runner with above-average range and ball skills, and a plus arm. 
• The scouting and data-oriented projections for Lee are both quite strong, befitting a player who just signed a nine-figure deal. Here are Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for Lee:
• ZiPS Projection – Jung Hoo Lee
• Year         BA  OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ DR WAR
• 2024 .288 .346 .416 476 56 137 29 4 8 62 39 38 2 111 1 2.5
• 2025 .288 .348 .422 486 58 140 30 4 9 63 41 38 2 113 1 2.6
• 2026 .287 .348 .420 488 58 140 30 4 9 63 42 38 1 112 0 2.6
• 2027 .281 .343 .409 487 58 137 29 3 9 62 42 37 1 108 0 2.3
• 2028 .282 .345 .412 478 57 135 29 3 9 61 42 36 1 109 0 2.3
• 2029 .281 .344 .406 463 54 130 28 3 8 58 41 35 1 108 0 2.2
• Those are the numbers of an above-average everyday center fielder. With this level of production, per Dan, ZiPS would recommend $132 million for a straight-up six-year deal. 
• ZiPS evaluates $113 million with an opt-out after four years as having the same value relative to projections as a six-year, $134 million contract.
• Readers should consider him a contact-only threat at the moment, but he has rare hitting talent, and it’s plausible that with added strength, a swing adjustment, or some other developmental intervention, the Giants could coax more power out of him over time. Here you can see what ZiPS thinks the high-end outcomes look like if that happens:
• 2024 ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Jung Hoo Lee
• Percentile 2B HR BA  OBP SLG OPS+ WAR
• 95%                 44 14 .339 .396 .496 147     4.8
• 90%                 40 12 .325 .386 .476 137     4.3
• 80%                 36 11 .314 .373 .456 128     3.6
• 70%                 33 10 .304 .364 .439 122     3.2
• 60%                 31 9 .295 .356 .427 117     2.9
• 50%                 29 8 .288 .346 .416 111     2.5
• 40%                 27 7 .280 .339 .398 105     2.1
• 30%                 26 7 .270 .330 .385 99     1.7
• 20%                 24 6 .258 .323 .371 93     1.3
• 10%                 21 5 .242 .305 .351 84     0.7
• 5%                 19 4 .230 .291 .332 75     0.2
• It may take a little time for Lee to adjust to the quality of big league stuff, but his glove will play right away. His signing brings an element of youth and excitement to the team that the Giants have lacked for the last few seasons.

Your 2019 Giants Big Picture: Drew Pomeranz signed for $1.5M

As reported by various media outlets, the Zaidi Giants signed LHP Drew Pomeranz to a $1.5M contract, with extensive roster and performance bonuses that, if all are earned, would push his salary to $5M.  He's now slated for the starting rotation - though it was noted by Zaidi  that he has experience relieving as well - giving the Giants three known and expected starters - Bumgarner, Holland, and Pomeranz - and many options for the other two positions:  Samardzija, Rodriquez, Suarez, and Stratton, plus potentially Blach and Anderson, and perhaps Adon, depending on how he's used.

Your 2018 Giants: Signs FA Tony Watson for $9M

The Giants have agreed to sign free agent Tony Watson, former teammate and buddy of closer Mark Melancon (he apparently tried hard to recruit him even when he was briefly with the Dodgers;  he pitched very well for them in the playoffs).  Two years at $9M, plus games played escalators that easily push the contract to $14M, but all in 2019, none in 2018, plus a player's option for 2020.

To stay under the CBT penalty, his agent, Scott Boras (of course, he was the sneak that cost us a Top 10 pick in Matt White, when he found a loophole that made him a free agent; I won't fully forgive him unless Bryce Harper signs with us next off-season :^) ), helped figure out a way for the Giants to sign him, given their interest in him once the news that Will Smith would miss at least the first month of the season in his recovery from TJS.  Apparently for the CBT, because it is a two year contract with a third year player option, for AAV purposes, it counts as 3 years, but because only $9M is guaranteed over the first two years of the contract, you divide the $9M by the 3 years.

Boras' financial accountant earned his salary with that move, and this might break the log jam of free agents, as other teams try to do similar contractual gymnastics to sign other free agents.

Your 2018 Giants: Austin Jackson, Starting CF

Per many sources (here's CBS), the Giants have signed Austin Jackson to a two-year deal at $6M (which adds AAV of $3M, leaving the Giants maybe $1-2M under the CBT Penalty Threshold of $197M), with escalators that could push to $8.5M.

Your 2018 Giants: Hundley Signed for $2.5M

Per report from Chronicle and other beat writers, Nick Hundley has been re-signed to a one-year $2.5M contract to be the Giants backup catcher again.  His signing was expected as the Giants only had one other catcher on the 40-man roster (Aramis Garcia, who was recently added), plus, Hundley had a good time with the Giants and wanted to be back.

Your 2017 Giants (maybe): El Gordo Sandoval Rotund to the Giants

As all the whispers and tweets have intimated, Pablo Sandoval has signed with the Giants on a minor league contract, after being dumped by the Red Sox, with one of the largest owed amounts left on a contract ever.  He will start off with San Jose to DH one game, then head over to AAA Sacramento to play 3B and DH as the Giants try to figure out what he has left.

The reports are that he is now healthy and slimmer (as always, it's all relate for him), and he was contrite in his return, apologizing to anyone and everyone in Giants Nation, though that last ball of the 2014 World Series apparently is not returning rightfully to the Giants (the rumor is that he sold the ball off).

ogc thoughts

Personally, I would not have pursued this.  Been there, done that.  And words have been said, words that apologies won't really salve and didn't for me.  Worse, the ball was not returned, he dissed the franchise and all the fans by reportedly selling it off to someone (perhaps a Royal's fan who burned it; who knows?  But he was pretty angry about the Giants back then, so I can see that happening).

That said, I am personally OK about his return, and don't think it's the bad move that some in the media and the fans have painted it.  Just because Gillaspie is younger does not mean that he's a better player than Sandoval.  Plus Nunez is probably traded, Hwang just got sent back down to AAA because he just hasn't adjusted to playing off the bench and spot starting, Ryder Jones and Christian Arroyo are both injured by HBP, leaving only backups like Calixte and Tomlinson to play 3B.  Sandoval could be the replacement without hurting development if he shows anything in the minors.

And, yeah, it don't look good as far as PR goes to invite back with open arms a player who dissed the Giants so badly that not only the bridge is burned but so is the rest of the road back to the Giants.  But this is a no-lose situation for the Giants.

If he fails, he stays in the minors, don't cost us a 40-man prospect, nor that much money.   Only their dignity takes a hit.

If he plays well enough that the Giants could bring him up, he probably is only coming up if Nunez is gone, and a roster spot is then opened up on the 40-man, as he won't get us a close or great prospect, just an intriguing prospect with a few years to go, like we gave up when we traded for him.  He's not coming up unless he's starting, and I can't see the Giants dumping an interesting prospect for nothing if he's not starting.

If he starts for the Giants, and then fails or is just passable, that just makes a bad season worse. That's fine with me, I want to get as good a draft pick next season as possible, a Top 3 ideally, a Top 5 appears to be likely, at worse a Top 10 pick (though that would disappoint me greatly, at this point, I really want a Top 3 pick).

If he starts for the Giants and hits like he used to hit for us, that's found money, and hopefully the Giants can sign him for the next season.  If he can keep his weight down and hit the way he can hit, he's worth the money we would have to pay him, which would not be much for 2018 and maybe 2019 too because of how bad he was with Boston.  Other teams will either think that he's only good with the Giants or that he was only lucky, and not bother to try signing him on the cheap for 2018.  He'll have to prove he's back over a year to get other teams to take strong interest in signing him up for bigger money than the vet minimum, and that pushes it out to at least 2019.

And at this point, I'm only worried about 2018, and there is not a lot that says that 2018 will be that much better than 2017 right now, we need a lot to go good for us to have sufficient hope that 2018 is better.  There are a lot of "ifs" involved with us competing for the playoffs in 2018.

Summing up, having a Sandoval who can hit like he did before is a great value to have on our team for 2018, as he won't cost much but would contribute a lot.  Having a Sandoval who hit like he did for the Red Sox is a great value to have for getting our team that Top 3 2018 Draft pick.

I understand how some fans can be so passionate about this.   But being a GM requires decision makers to be like investors, very dispassionate about decision making.  And if one is focused on what makes the Giants better in 2018, then the move makes sense, as it is a no-lose situation, no matter what Sandoval does.

I personally would not have signed him (and that's the emotional side of me), and I will admit that I was going to write a post stating, "No Mas, Por Favor".  But now that he's here, I can see the various benefits of having him around (dispassionate side), I won't let my emotions blind me any further as to the merits of the situation.   I know that I'm not always right about the Giants moves.

And this is probably the right move for the Giants, given all the benefits I listed above, and I can live with the decision without making a hissy fit, as some have done (particularly one media type who seems to love to take digs at the Giants all the time, most probably because he's followed the A's for so many decades, it is like he's on their payroll;  or maybe it's the Stockholm Syndrome).   It will certainly be more interesting to follow than how the team has been playing this season.

Your 2017 Giants: Melancon signed to 4 years, $62M contract to be Closer

It has been tweeted by a number of places, here is the link to MLBTR which captures all the twists and turns, and details of the deal:  4 years, $62M.  Detail of the contract, per Jeff Passan tweets:   $17M first two years, with player opt-out after two seasons, and it is front loaded with $20M signing bonus, $12M upfront ($8M second year), and guaranteed $34M ($4M and $10M salaries) over first two years.  And if he opts into last two years, they are at $14M each (low, so if he's still closing well, he most likely will opt out).   I'll place more in the comments if there are any more.  Of course, pending his passing a physical with the Giants, but this is generally a gimme, it is generally a done deal by this point.

This easily breaks the record 4 years, $50M that Papelbon got as a closer, but will be easily beat by both Chapman and Jensen when they sign their contracts.   Also, it will put the Giants over the new $195M spending threshold, meaning a third year of overage, which equals a 50% tax on the overage.  I'll calc what my spreadsheet says about this, but this seems about right, there was not a lot of space left in the budget, hence why the Giants are talking about going with Williamson and Parker in LF.  Plus, if a good enough LF in the $1-3M range falls to them in Jan/Feb, I assume that they will take a flier, like they did with Huff in 2010.

Your 2016 Giants: Current Thoughts (Plus Denard Span!)

Trying to forget recent events, so I'm focusing on how I think the current Giants rotation can do, compared to the Dodgers, and possible moves left to make.

Sidenote:  I've been working on this for the past week or so, before the news of the Giants signing Denard Span to a contract, just moments ago.  I'm leaving in my notes about the OF, just for the record.  I'll add an addendum as well on Span.

Thoughts After Cueto Signing Press Conference

With the Cueto press conference introducing him (accounts by Pavlovic and Baggarly), news about the details of his contract came out.  Wow, complicated:

• 2016:  $15M
• 2017:  $21M
• 2017-2021:  $5M bonus, paid $1M annually, but apparently only one if he opts out
• 2017 Opt-out:  If he exercises it, he gets $5M buyout.  Else...
• 2018-2021:  $21M
• 2022:  Team option for $22M, and if not exercised, he gets bought out for $5M

Through all those complications, if he opts out after 2017, he will have received $46M in total:  salaries for 2016-17 of $36M, bonus of $5M, and $5M buyout.   He can be traded, but gets $500K for the first trade, $1M for the second.

According to the press conference, they did an MRI and found nothing wrong, that the flexor problem he had earlier in the year was fully healed.  And obviously he passed his physical.  And while Sabers hate the word, chemistry was also inferred.

Pavlovic:

The elbow issues limited Cueto’s market, but the Giants aren’t concerned. He missed a start while in Cincinnati last season because of a flexor tendon strain, but an MRI during the season came back clean and Evans said an MRI the Giants took on Thursday came back clean. “His elbow looks great,” Evans said. “It really looked good.” 

 Baggarly:

The Giants investigated those risks, and deemed them sufficiently minimal. Cueto underwent an MRI exam as part of Wednesday’s physical, and GM Bobby Evans said the right-hander’s elbow “looks great, really good.” 

The missed turn in May that caused him to skip a start and led to so much concern from clubs this winter? A mild flexor strain, said Evans, adding that a contrast dye injection was the only reason Cueto missed one start. The checkered performances following the late-July trade to Kansas City? An inevitable adjustment to a new team and catcher, agent Bryce Dixon said. 

Baer said the front office contacted several of Cueto’s former coaches with the Reds and Royals, and came back with a positive assessment of his personality, passion and clubhouse demeanor. 

So what, exactly, allowed them to move past those ghosts [of Zito Past]? “It’s a fair question,” Baer said. “What we really saw was, if you have five strong (in the rotation), plus (Chris) Heston … we think it just gives us the best chance to win. It changes the bullpen equation. We don’t have to overtax the bullpen, which is one thing that might have happened last year. 

“We did a really thorough war room analysis and everybody said" [Cueto was the free agent to get. (cribbed this from the televised press conference and inserted here)]

“And the other thing, as Cueto’s name was out there, a lot of calls were made and he came through as a huge plus-guy in the clubhouse. A huge plus teammate. Huge plus. That was really important, too.

Also, Haft has some info regarding Cueto's workout regiment, showing how much a competitor he is and how fitness conscious he is:

Based on the testimony of Jeff Brantley, the former Giants right-hander who scrutinized Cueto as a Reds broadcasting commentator, Cueto works ceaselessly to match the achievements of Marichal and other greats. "He's a high-end competitor," Brantley said. 

Don't be fooled by Cueto's thick frame, Brantley advised. "If you take a look behind the scenes and watch his workout regimen, it's about as professsional as you can get," Brantley said. 

"There's not too many starting pitchers out there who run 'stadiums [up and down the aisles of an entire ballpark].' He runs them until he's blue in the face."

Bochy was a noted driver for this move, and how it would work:

“Bochy said get me another 200-inning starter and I’m good,” team president and CEO Larry Baer said. “I’ll figure out left field … It’s our recipe: Pitching, defense and sprinkle in position players where we can.” 

Sounds like LF will not be a high priority either going forward, barring a free agent desperate for something.   Still:

Although the Giants doubled down on pitching this winter, Evans said he remains involved on “all levels” of a free-agent outfield market that remains slow to develop. Evans wouldn’t say how much wiggle room remained in the budget, but the Giants expect their payroll plus benefits to exceed $189 million and thus would pay into the competitive balance tax for the second consecutive year.

But there's a 30% premium now with the next bit of news, which is that Baer noted that the Giants had went pass the payroll threshold and will be paying the tax this season.  At 30% tax, any additional salaries added on would effectively cost the Giants at 130%, or, in other words, for every $10M added, $3M of tax is collected.

Baer noted that the development of homegrown stars like Matt Duffy and Joe Panik made this offseason spending spree possible. Counting the Brandon Crawford extension, the Giants -- resigned to paying the competitive balance tax for a second straight year -- have committed $295 million to three players over the past month. Cueto’s deal is by far the biggest, and it’s a complicated one.

And a word about Lincecum:

Evans acknowledged that filling up the five-man rotation “does put us potentially in a difficult spot” to re-sign Tim Lincecum, who is looking to start again and will showcase himself in January. “But in the meantime, we’re not ready to come to any landing there right now. He’s done a lot for the franchise, he means a lot to the organization and we’ll let that play out over time.”

I interpreted that to mean that the Giants are interested in bringing back Lincecum as the long reliever if he don't sign with someone as a starting pitcher, else they would have just said "adios" like they did with Vogelsong because there are no more spots in the starting rotation.   That would put Heston into AAA to work on whatever it was that they intimated that they would have him work on when discussing the options with him.

Speaking of Vogelsong, he just signed with the Pirates, $2M contract with $3M in incentives.  Don't know details, but basically he's signed to a cheap deal where he'll probably have a role like he had with the Giants last season, and if he ends up starting a lot of games, get his incentives, I would bet.  Good luck to him, he's been a great Giant and we'll always remember everything he's done for us.

Lastly, interesting news to come out (via Pavlovic) was that apparently the team Greinke was close to selecting was the Giants, not the Dodgers as most (including me) assumed.  Apparently the Giants brass got the impression from meeting him that he was leaning towards the Giants.  Greinke impressed by asking about prospects that not everyone in attendance was aware of.  In their meeting, he blew everyone away with his knowledge of the Giants.

This could tie in with the information I read about how upset he was about Puig in the clubhouse.  This could have been akin to the Kent-Bonds situation for the Giants after 2002, where the free agent was not returning to the former team for any price because of a tense situation he has with another star on the team.  Given how Greinke is clearly a GATE student type (smart, but socially a bit awkward, and in his case, bordering on insensitive), it would not surprise me if he just wanted to get away from the LA situation, as Puig is apparently not going anywhere.  

Start Spreading the News: Giants Sign Johnny Cueto to 6 years, $130M

Getting news off Twitter:

• Cueto has agreed to deal, now pending physical, as usual.
• $130M over 6 years, so more than D-backs offer ($21.67M AAV for threshold purposes)
• Opt-out after two years, team option for 7th
• $23M for first two years, $21M over final four

How Samardzija Was This Signing?

The Giants signed Samardzija (pending physical on Tuesday, which is expected to be fine) and so how good a deal is it?  There were some negatives that led me to not want to sign him, but now that I've seen more information, I'm actually pretty excited about it.  Plus, it gives us more Shark marketability, with Gregor Blanco (White Shark) and Samardzija (Shark).

Giants Sign The Shark: Samardzija for Pence Deal

As the beats have been reporting, Giants signed Jeff Samardzija to a 5 year, $90M deal.  The deal details per Pavlovic, who first reported the deal:

Samardzija got the same five-year, $90 million deal Hunter Pence signed in 2013. The deal includes a $9 million signing bonus, with $3 million paid upfront and the rest spread out. Essentially, he’ll make $12 million in 2016 and $19.5 million each of the next four seasons. Samardzija also got a limited no-trade clause that allows him to pick eight teams each season that he can be traded to.

The Giants lose their #19 draft pick with this signing, as Baggarly noted.   Apparently the Giants think a lot more about the Shark (it's going to take a while for me to learn to type his last name without errors :^) than they do Leake, because the reports are that while they remain interested in Leake, they will not be willing to give him the same deal and with all the deals done already and teams interested in Leake, it appears that market demand will push him up to that size of a deal.  And signing him would not cost the Giants another draft pick, so not only did they pay more in contract, they gave up on a draft pick.

In any case, reportedly, Samardzija preferred to sign with the Giants over other teams.  And that was probably key to this deal being closed so fast after Greinke signed with the D-backs (you know the story, so I won't repeat that), as his agent reportedly said that he had a $100M deal on the table a few days ago (though, for what it's worth, all the reporting I saw after that was that this was what they were asking for, not that he was offered that).

Plus, Pavs noted these factors that the Giants took into account:

“Even in tough times (last year) he still put 200-plus innings on the board,” Evans said. “You look at his track record, you look at his presence that he brings on the mound, you look at back-to-back-to-back 200-plus (inning) seasons, and you realize this guy is a force to be reckoned with. There’s a reason why we targeted him and a reason why we focused on him as one of our top priorities. 

“You’ve got a guy who has made the conversion from reliever to starter and has done that well. There are a lot of innings left in that arm.” 

The Giants believe Samardzija’s 2015 numbers may have been partially skewed by the fact that he was pitching for his third team in two seasons, and they have identified mechanical adjustments they can make to a guy who has the tools to be an ace. Samardzija, a former football star at Notre Dame, is listed at 6-foot-5 and 225 pounds, throwing a fastball that averaged 94.3 mph last season and topped out at 97.9. The Giants believe they can harness that kind of electric stuff, and they have one of the best pitching coaches in the game in Dave Righetti.

ogc thoughts

You're a Rich One, Mr. Greinke

This was the title I was going to use for the blog post when it was reported that we signed Samardzija (yea, typed with no mistake, though I did slow down near the end!) so I wanted to use it somewhere.  His signing to the largest AAV contract, as well as nearly as big as Price's, at 6 years, $206.5M (though some of it was deferred, making the contract worth more like $190M in present value; though I would note that, strictly speaking, I take any discussion of "present value" with regards to baseball contracts with a grain of salt because if one is going to calculate net present value, the whole contract has be netted, not just the deferred payments) was apparently the domino that needed to fall in order for the Giants to sign the Shark.

This move should make the D-backs into close to being a contender, as they were around .500 last season and have some good pieces in Goldschmidt and Pollock, plus stated that they are still in search of another starter and are pursuing, among others, Mike Leake.  I had been hoping that their pursuit of Cueto would kill their interest in Leake, and here they sign Greinke to about $14.3M more per season than Cueto and they are still pursuing him.

Giants Next Moves

Surprisingly, per the accounts from the beats (Baggarly and Pavs above, here's Schulman), it sounds like the Giants will probably not get Leake.  The feeling is that with Samardzija's deal, Leake will be wanting 5 years, $90M ($18M AAV) as well, and, basically, that's too rich for the Giants blood, which I've been noting had been the problem area between the two sides.

Rumors currently have the Giants looking at Iwakuma right now.  And that makes some sense.  One because the Giants might not want to commit to another pitcher for 5 years now that they have Blackburn, Beede, Blach, Stratton, Meija, Bickford, Johnson, and Coonrod waiting and rising up the minors.  Two, the Giants already lost their first round pick, so now they would only lose their second round pick.

So why did the Giants give up on their draft pick?  Evans did say that they would prefer to keep the pick.  Yet the guys they went hardest after (per media coverage, Greinke and Samardzija, plus they brought in Zimmerman, as well as Samardzija, and Zobrist will be visiting soon).  Perhaps they view next year's draft depth to be not worth keeping the pick?  Or perhaps that is why the Giants went hard for Fox and a number of other IFA's this time, knowing that they anticipated losing the first pick due to a QO.

The Giants are also looking at Zobrist as well.  We need a LF and his versatility around the infield would give Bochy a lot of options for mixing and matching.  As well, given that Panik is one of the most asked for players in trade, the Giants could decide to make the trade, say for a pitcher (Indians reportedly asked for both Panik and Duffy for Carrasco), and use Zobrist at 2B.  However, part of the reason being given that the Giants can spend big now is that having young producing assets like Panik and Duffy gives the Giants the ability to sign large deals like the Shark, and pursue another big free agent.

My calculations come out with $24.2M left to spend before reaching the luxury tax threshold, $29.2M left to spend, depending on where exactly they want to target their annual payroll at.   As noted in my prior post, enough to get a mid-range signing like an Iwakuma or Fister, plus a nice bullpen addition like Soria.

I wanted to get this out now, I'll look at my thoughts about Samardzija in another post.