Your 2026 Giants: Bullpen Angst

I see a lot of comments about the bullpen, as well as articles concerned about the bullpen.  

Your 2018 Giants: Big Six Questions A.B.I. (After Bumgarner Injury)

Normally this is done earlier in Spring Training and I would forget to do them as well, but after losing Samardzija and Bumgarner on successive days, seems like the thing to do now.

Giants Ways of Winning in the Playoffs

I ran across an article that captures some of what the Giants did to win 3 of 5.   I commented there and wanted to capture that here.  Below is my comment, plus additional stuff, as I am wont to do.

Your 2017 Giants: Post-Mortem and 2018 Thoughts

The Giants had the second worse record in franchise history, going 64-98.  I've seen many in the media, including some talking heads who I don't have a lot of respect for, excoriate the Giants for not planning on pursuing power, necessarily, when the annual post-season press conference was held.  The Giants senior management emphasized improving outfield defense, looking for an upgrade at 3B, and perhaps bullpen help.

FYI, all stats from the great Baseball Reference resource.

Your 2017 Playoff Guide: Beat LA!

Obviously, really late, but I had to post this title!  Short rumination on the playoffs rooting interests for this Giants fan.  Plus, as usual, then I expanded to touch on the starting pitching.

[P.S. I added during lunch time of October 24, 2017]

Your 2017 Giants: Relief in the Bullpen

Hopefully quick blog post, especially since some liked this format before.  I read about how the Giants were taking a chance with our bullpen, as among the relievers expected to make the team (Kontos, Law, Okert, Osich, Smith, Strickland; not sure why Guerrin was left off, was that a hint?), there were a lot of blown saves among them, 14 in total.

Your 2017 Giants: Post Cubs World Series Championship

Wow, the Cubs ended 108 years of misery, winning their first championship in most likely all of their current fans' lifetimes (unless there is a 115 year old or so fan out there).  Congrats to the new Champs!

With that comes the first rush of business that the Giants took in the post season.  They signed three players to minor league contracts, two oldies, one newbie:  Kyle Blanks, Ricky Romero, and Jason Johnson (the newbie).  Romero and Johnson had been All-Stars not that long ago, but are recovered from injuries and hoping to return to their careers.  In particular, Johnson is being viewed as a potential reliever (Schulman).  Plus, they released Tony Sanchez, outrighting him to AAA, freeing up a 40-man spot.

There currently are 35 spots taken, assuming all the free agents on the list leaves:  Casilla, Lopez, Romo, Nathan, Beckham (I think he's a free agent), Blanco, Pagan.  I believe we still control Suarez and Hernandez.  I'm not sure who are the five players who will be added out of the prospects, but the Rule 5 draft happens in early December, at the Winter Meetings, if I remember right, so the news will be out in a couple of weeks.

More importantly, they quickly picked up Matt Moore's option for 2017 at $7M (Pavlovic; Schulman; SFGiants).  We still have options for 2018 at $9M and 2019 at $10M.   He will be 28 YO for the 2017 season (Bumgarner is 27).

Lastly, Greg Holland, who had been amazing as a closer for the Royals from 2011-2014, until TJS at the end of the 2015 season knocked him out for the 2016 season.  He's having a showcase soon, in time for free agency (unlike Lincecum's long delayed showcase), and Evans said that the Giants are interested and attending, as will other teams (Pavlovic).  He's 31 YO.  Evans also noted that closer is his major goal for the off-season (Haft) and that it is great that the Giants have so many options available, both in terms of free agents, as well as one-year and two-year trade options available.

Your 2016 Giants: Post-Season Presser

The Giants post-season press conference was held last Thursday after the last playoff game on Tuesday.  Reports from the beat writers:

• Andy Baggarly and Mercury News:  closer; coaches; power 
• Hank Schulman:  closer and other news; coaches
• Chris Haft:  free agents; bullpen and other news; coaches
• Alex Pavlovic:  free agents; closer; coaches; injuries and other news 

Unfortunately, Tim Kawakami did not provide a transcript of the press conference, as he has done in prior years - sorry, memory going, not sure when is the last time he did it, I'm pretty sure he didn't do it last year.  It saved me the trouble of transcribing them myself, as, often, each would interpret what was said, and we get a Realm of the Senses reenactment of a baseball he said, no he said, situation.

The Linceum Conundrum

Tim Lincecum is a free agent, and his future is debated vigorously by Giants fans.  His showcase, which he said would happen in January is so far MIA.  What should the Giants do, sign him or let him go?

2015 Giants: May PQS

This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of May 2015, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details). I wrote on this first in 2006 (wow, 10th year of this!) and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.

This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).

Your 2015 Giants: Vogie In!

As much as I thought that Vogelsong's exclamation at the victory parade for the 2014 Championship was his final words as a Giant - "Vogie Out!" - because of the full rotation we have plus Petit, a part of me was hoping beyond hope that the Giants could retain him.

That has come true, after various rumors of interest on the part of teams, then him flying into Houston, apparently THAT close to signing with them, it has been reported that Vogelsong will return to the Giants with a $4M deal with incentives (probably related to IP).  He had made it clear numerous times that he, in an ideal world, would return to the Giants, the team he loved so much that he begged for a job with the Giants, after being offered a spot with the Dodgers (they did so in 2011 and the rest is history...).  

He acknowledges that his role on the team is undefined, and he says he's fine with it, as he will take the ball when they give it to him and give it back when they ask for it back.  He (and particularly his wife) is happy to be back home in SF.

No news on who is next to be removed off of the 40-man roster.

FYI, Schulman tweeted that Scutaro was released with the thought that if a spot opens up early in the season (no DL outside of the season), they would add him to the roster and immediately put him on the 60-day DL.  I guess that would add to his MLB time for pension purposes.

ogc thoughts

Unless the Giants go with the 6-man rotation idea (my pet idea I've been pushing; however, according to Schulman tweet, none of the Giants upper brass is enamored with that idea), my best guess is that Vogelsong is rotation insurance and that he'll get first shot at the rotation should anything open up.

If the disaster scenario don't happen and all five starters keep their current spot - Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson, Peavy, Lincecum, in that order - Vogelsong will get a spot in the bullpen, making the bullpen pretty set right now:  Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Vogelsong, Petit, with only one spot open.  Then Machi, Kontos, Strickland, and maybe Okert and Hall too, will battle for that last spot (Gutierrez too, I suppose, since he rejoined the team in the minors after being DFAed).

Hudson Rest Scenario

One scenario that Krukow laid out was that Hudson's recovery could extend into the first part of the season and that it would not be the worse thing to happen.  He's 40 now and extra rest like that would make him stronger later in the season.   So the idea here is to put Huddy on the DL to start the season, to rest up and get to 100% (and not just functional), with Vogie taking over the starting spot.  When Hudson is ready to return to the roster, I would guess that most probably, Vogie will be pushed to the bullpen unless another starter is having a really tough time (meaning, mostly, Lincecum, but we all know the question marks with everyone else:  Bumgarner's 270 IP, 4000+ pitches in 2014, Cain's own recovery, Peavy's reverting to first half or second half 2014 form, Lincecum able to dominate consistently with his Dad again helping game to game).

Thinking it over a lot, I think that this scenario makes the most sense.  Hudson probably would be ready by spring training and be able to take the starting mound to start the season, but probably not at 100% given his age and that the surgery just happened in late December.   Why not sign Vogelsong to start the season in his place, then see where the team is when Hudson is ready?  There are enough question marks that such a risk mitigation move would make a lot of sense.

Plus, Vogelsong really wanted to return to the team and he's at the age where he's not going to get a lot of chances to win it all again, better to take reduced role with potential champs than veteran teacher role with a losing team trying to transition back into the fast lane.  There's time enough to take such a role down the line as a coach if he wanted.

In addition, that allows the Giants to keep both Machi and presumably Kontos on the roster longer.  Both have done well in the majors for the Giants and both are out of options, I believe, so the Giants most likely will probably trade one off instead of DFAing him.   They would probably get more value from either player by trading in the middle of the coming season than they would trading them during spring, though if a team suddenly (injury) had need, they could do the trade then and let Strickland or Hall or Okert come up instead.
I like both, but neither has really distinguished themselves in the playoffs, certainly not like our four-some of Casilla, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez (and just imagine if Wilson had been able to stay healthy...).   And I'm torn between the two.  Machi is the only guy with a great fastball in our bullpen, so that is one great reason to keep him.  Kontos, on the other hand, is only 30 YO (Machi will be 33) and has a good slider to strike out people.  I think ultimately youth and specialty pitch will win over age and possibly fading fastball (Machi's K-rate went down a lot in 2014 vs. 2013).  But the Giants will do what they think is right, so it will be interesting what happens.

Other Scenarios

Obviously, if any other starter should need to be replaced, be it injury or poor performance, Vogelsong will probably be the first in line to take his spot.  Should the rotation stay healthy and productive together, he'll probably be the spot starter who will get a few middle innings relief jobs to keep his pitches sharp, while Petit will be the full-time long relief and occasional spot starter, especially given that Petit has done very well when placed in the rotation, but not as well when spot starting.   Sabean in an interview a day or two ago, noted that Petit will be a "super reliever", which suggests that he'll be used like Lincecum was in the 2012 playoffs, much like how I was hoping that Lincecum would do for the Giants at some point when he's no longer starter material.

I'm just happy he's back with the team, and (unfortunately for him) hope that he's stuck in the bullpen all season long.  But hopefully he'll be plenty rested and ready to do great things in the playoffs, should we make it in (and I think we should).

Go Giants!

Your 2014 Giants: World Series: Royals

Wow, the Giants are in the World Series!  How many of us were thinking, sure, no problem, during the depths of the June Swoon?  Probably just 25 plus the coaches.

I still thought that they had the talent (before the season, I thought a 95-100 win season was not out of the question, and that looked pretty good until June), but sometimes when you go into a deep dive, you don't have enough time to get back up.  So it was obvious to me, their talent, whether they made it to the playoffs or not.  Though, as I noted on Shankbone's, I've been eerily calm about the team, I just felt really good about this team.  I still do.

ogc thoughts

The Giants are going with the same 25 man roster they had in the NLCS.  So Lincecum, despite not being used so far, is still considered a valuable option to have in emergency, but not good enough when things are tight and we need a shut down reliever, like we did in 2012.

The Royals have swapped out Colon for Nix, a swap of utility MI.  They are only carrying 11 pitchers, enabling them to hold onto their pinch-runners.  They are carrying only their best pitchers, with only Guthrie with an ERA above 4 and three lefties in the bullpen with Duffy, Collins, and Finnegan.  Collins probably made the roster because he's a lefty (3.86 ERA 4.80 FIP), since the Giants lineup is very left-oriented.

I've been looking at the teams and below are my thoughts.  Mostly, I think we have a good chance at a third trophy, but the BABIP gods could decide otherwise.

The starting pitching is about the same, I believe, though perhaps Guthrie and Vargas gets swapped.  Game:

1. Bumgarner 67% DOM vs. Shields 65% DOM
2. Peavy 67% DOM with Giants vs. Ventura 60% DOM
3. Hudson 47% DOM vs. Guthrie 53% DOM (KC TBA, making guess from ALCS)
4. Vogelsong 52% DOM vs. Vargas 53% DOM (KC TBA, making guess from ALCS)  

First off, I would note that in the ALCS, only Vargas actually pitched a DOM start.  None of the other three did, and the only reason they won was because the O's pitchers were worse.  They averaged 2.75 PQS while the O's averaged 1.5 PQS, as they had two DIS starts from their top two starters.

Not that the Giants were all that much better (2.4 PQS vs. 2.2).   I think Vogie finally just had a bad start, that is going to happen to any good starter, he was BABIPed, but he's had so many successes that I think he's OK in pressure situations like the World Series.  We were lucky to win that game given how well Wainwright pitched, but then we got to the weak link:  Matheny insisted on using Wacha, do or die, in the bottom of the 9th.  Not the closer, not any other trusted bullpen reliever, the one guy he hadn't used at all during the playoffs, kind of like he felt he owed it to Wacha to give him an appearance.   And even after putting two men on base, he didn't bring in anyone else to shut down the rally.  And Peavy has never had a DOM start in the playoffs, so there is that too.

The Scheduled Starting Pitchers

Game 1 will be a toss up, because both pitchers will probably be shutdown.  However, I would note that Shields was not that great in his O's start, lots of hits given up, presumably BABIP though, but only struck out 3 in 5 IP.  But in the playoffs, you have to wonder if they are not performing up to snuff because of the pressure.  Because of this I give Bumgarner the edge over Shields in any matchup they may have.

Game 2 will be a toss up, mainly because I'm not sure either pitcher can stand up to the pressure.  Peavy has never had a DOM start ever in the playoffs.  Thus Venture is up on him, throwing a DOM start against the Angels.   Still, Ventura had a 2 PQS in this ALCS start, as he was very wild, didn't give up that many hits but walked 3 and only struck out 3 in 5.2 IP.  Our patient hitters could eat him up while our hackers could drive him crazy as he throw a bad pitch to Pablo and watches it fly away, far away.  I think this is a game where you wait for the first pitcher to blow up, then the other team will preserve the lead by taking out their starter the moment there is trouble and have their bullpen save the game.  This game can go either way, but I would note that Bochy is comfortable bringing in his relievers at any time in the game, even if the starting pitcher hasn't reached 5 IP yet, whereas Yost has mostly defined roles for his relievers, with Herrera his 7th inning guy (sometimes 6th), Davis his 8th, and Holland his 9th, and probably roles for everyone else too, that is the thing often said about relievers, they like to know what their role is and when they might be used.

Both pens are strong, KC has 3.27 ERA while SF has 3.01 ERA.  KC is better with 8.7 K/9 but SF better with 2.95 K/BB.  And both teams are bringing only their best pitchers, for the most part (I still think Kontos deserves a spot, but who gets dropped, Lincecum? Another bench player?  So I understand, but feel bad for him).   Their bullpen might be our equals in terms of talent, if not better.  But our bullpen is working on a string of scoreless appearances going back to the 2010 playoffs, so the Royals will need to better that.

Plus, while their bullpen has a lot of live arms, the Giants have hitters who love fastballs.  There recently was a list of hitters with homers on pitches over 95 MPH and Pence, Sandoval, Posey, Belt, and Crawford showed up on that list.  So while their relievers can bring it, our hitters have been able to hit it, as well.  We'll see who wins there.

The difference might be the offense.  KC's offense was at 4.02 RS/game, below average in the AL.  SF's offense was at 4.10 RS/game, above average in the NL, and they were handicapped by not having an offensive 2B most of the season and not having Belt in the lineup most of the season, as well as having no DH to boost up their RS totals, unlike the Royals.  Meanwhile, we will have a functioning DH in Morse, to help make our offense even better.

Game 3 and 4 starters for KC has not been announced.  Both Guthrie and Vargas had similar DOM/DIS in the season, but Vargas has been much more successful during these playoffs, with two DOM starts so they could be flopped from the order they were in the ALCS, but I'm sticking with that order below.  In addition, I suspect that should the Royals find themselves in a must-win game in Game 4, that Yost would push Shields up a day to Game 4, to face Vogelsong.

Game 3 is also a bit of a toss-up, based on DOM, but I give the edge to the Giants.  Both pitchers have similar DOM% for the season, but while Hudson has two DOM starts so far in the post-season, Guthrie has none, not even getting a start in the ALDS, and throwing a 2 PQS in the ALCS, where he only had 2 K's in 5 IP but 2 BB's.  But it is the World Series, the first for Hudson.  Of course, he beat the pressure in the NLCS and had a 4 PQS start there, winning his start.  And he was masterful, with 5 K's and 0 walks in 6.1 IP.  Again, could be a turning point for the Giants here, again, as Bochy understands must wins.

Here is a quote from him (Baggerly) and a big part of why I love him as our manager (besides the winning):

''You're always learning from your past experiences, whether it's during the season or postseason. The one thing I think I've learned is it's different, the postseason. It's not the regular season,'' Bochy said. ''You don't have that margin of error to make up for these games. You lose a game in May, and you still have 100-plus games to make that up.''

In other words, as I've been trying to illustrate this off-season, almost every game of the playoffs is a must win game, but obviously, someone has to lose.  Bochy has just done a better job of not being the one to lose, he has understood that each game is an entity to itself and thus you throw out all the stops to win that game, then worry about the next game tomorrow.

Game 4 is again a match-up of equals, both DOMs are close to each other again, but again, I think we got the slight edge.  Vogelsong had a DIS start, but he had a five game streak of post-season starts with 1 run or less, including a great game against the Nats in the NLDS.  Vargas was a bit lucky with the BABIP, giving up only 2 hits in 5.1 IP and striking out 6, but he also walked 3 batters, a high walk rate, but did have a DOM start, 4 PQS.  But it seems to me that again, the Giants can exploit his wildness, as indicated by his 3 walks.  But he has two DOM starts in the playoffs so far, so you got to respect that.  And if the Royals do swap, and put him in Game 3 instead, that would make it tough for Hudson to win, it would be a coin flip.

Again, our hitters are very patient hitters, willing to work the walk if they have to, to put pressure on the pitcher, to put pressure on the fielders (because our team has not been striking out that much in the playoffs), to allow their compatriot batting next to be the hero of that particular game.  That has a trait across all our World Series teams, there has not really been one hero, even if there are MVPs, there has usually been one guy after another stepping up to save the day for our team.

Because our hitters are patient and don't strike out too much, starting pitchers' pitch count goes up faster, thus pushing their opponents to have to go to their middle inning pitchers first, before having to face KC's three-headed monster of Herera, Davis, Holland 7, 8, 9.  They also have Frasor, Duffy and Finnegan, who have all been great.  So they have a pretty good bullpen too, middle to end, perhaps better than our bullpen, they remind me of the 2012 Giants in that overall their bullpen numbers are pedestrian, but they aren't carrying those bad relievers, they just got the ones who are very good.  Looks like we will need to get to their starters for big runs first and then need to outlast their strong bullpen.

Their hitters are also tough like the Giants, not striking out much, putting balls into play a lot.  However, unlike the Giants, they do not walk much.  I think that this plays into the Giants pitchers' happy zone.  Our pitchers frequently throw strikes and get them, particularly Bumgarner and Petit.  The other pitchers don't strike out a lot, but operate with a lot of BABIP, which our fielders are used to doing anyway, and like the Royals, rarely make mistakes that the other team capitalizes on.

One stat I've had a laugh at is the one about how the Royals weren't homerun hitters during the regular season, but they have been during the playoffs, and therefore that is an advantage for them.  The Giants pitchers are not strikeout guys for the most part, but what they are is good homerun preventers.  That was documented in a Fangraphs study a while back, how no matter what personnel or year, the Giants have been pretty good at avoiding giving up homeruns.  Of course, this playoff month has seen a lot of homers, but they have mostly been because Strickland apparently had been tipping his pitches.

Fangraph analysis found that the Giants hitters have a general advantage as well:

By the pitch type values, at least, it looks like the Giants’ hitters are equipped to handle the fastballs of the Royals’ staff. And the Royals’ hitters may have trouble with the Giants’ breaking balls. These are general statements, hopefully made more believable by focusing on a larger sample. 

Thus, I think the series will hinge on how well each starter does for their team.  According to this MLB.com article, their starting pitchers have struggled so far in the playoffs:

Solid starting pitching has been a strength for the Royals this season, but staff ace James Shields (5.63 ERA) has struggled in the postseason, No. 2 manYordano Ventura showed diminished velocity and left his ALCS start with shoulder tightness, and the Royals have had to be careful enough with Danny Duffy's innings that he has been kept out of the rotation altogether this October.

Thus they are relying a lot on Vargas and Guthrie to come through.  Vargas has done well in these playoffs with two DOM starts, but Guthrie only got the one start and only a 2 PQS, because he didn't strike out too many batters (just 2).

Where our staff, at least during the regular season, has done much better than the Royals is in the percentage of Disaster starts.  Even mediocre pitchers can sustain a lower ERA (like Hennessey) by avoiding the disaster starts.  A DIS start really skews things and jumps the ERA up.  While Shields and Bumgarner were basically the same, Peavy/Hudson/Vogelsong averaged roughly 12-13% DIS starts, while the Royal's Ventura/Guthrie/Vargas averaged roughly 20%.  And 80-90% of the time you have a disaster start and the other team don't, you lose.

So far this post-season, KC in their 8 games has a 63% DOM and 0% DIS, while SF has in their 10 games, 60% DOM and 20% DIS.  SSS rules as usual, but KC's staff was not that good at avoiding the DIS start in the regular season.  But they are looking due for at least one DIS start.  A thin margin for the Giants, but if they can get that advantage, that is often enough for a series win, tipping it in their favor.  Because, as I've been saying often this post-season:  every game is a must win.

I would caveat, on the Giants side, that Peavy, had he been allowed to go another inning, and did that OK, he probably would have gotten a 2 PQS, it was just that it was a run-scoring opportunity, which Bochy cashed in but it was for naught because the Giants ended up losing 5-4.  So he was not that bad, but wasn't that good either, which is the theme of his playoff career.

Vogelsong, however, was plain bad, but mostly hurt by BABIP.  Still, Peavy has no DOM playoff games to his credit, whereas this was the first blip on Vogelsong's post-season career, in 7 starts, 3 DOM, only 1 DIS, for 42% DOM and 14% DIS, and 1 or less runs given up until this last start (DIS starts will do that to you).  However, that is not as good as Vogelsong has done in the regular season for us, so he could be feeling the pressure during crunch time as well.

I think our success in this World Series will revolve around how well our starters do relative to the Royal's starters, much like the Orioles losing to the Royals, rather than the Royals beating the Orioles.  The ones who can laid down a DOM start on the throat of the other team will help lead his team to the trophy.  Bumgarner looks likely, but he faltered against Wainwright the second tie.  Peavy just has never had one DOM start.  Perfect time for one.  Hudson has been seemingly rejuvenated this post-season, with two DOM starts, much like he was laying down early this season.  He's getting a lot of rest again leading into the Game 3 start, so

With similar enough starters, lineup, bullpen, defense, the big advantage the Royals have over the Giants are their speed and willingness to use it to try to disrupt the Giants defense, as well as gain an extra base.   Posey is a good catcher, able to throw out runners with his strong arm, but our pitchers have not always been the best at holding runners.  Hopefully our pitchers can keep their cool, and just focus on pitching while trying to keep the runner close enough to 1B so that Posey can have a chance to throw the runner out.

This might set the stage and foundation for what we will see in this World Series, if they keep the Giants off-balance, the Royals could force the issue and take over the series.  This is the only way I can see the Royals for sure making the Giants look bad, is via a cartoon samba across the basepath to score runs, as they haven't really faced such an offense before except for the Royals, and, er, we got beat Royally.

And that might be our saving grace there, losing all three to them already.  They can't help but feel subconsciously over confident from doing that.  It is just human nature, even though I see some of them saying the right things.

Meanwhile, never bet against our Giants when their backs are against the wall or when they have been embarrassed like that.  Like Panik studying how to hit the best cutter in baseball, to Posey prepping the pitchers on the opposing teams hitters, to the Giants advanced analytics team positioning our fielders at just the right spot most of the time, the Giants overall seem like a team that likes to prepare extra well for the other team.  And while not every team without experience screws up, KC didn't exactly do all that well either in the ALCS, their pitching let them down, and if it wasn't for the Oriole's pitching doing worse, the story might be about the orange and black facing the black and orange.  I also see the Giants pinch-hitting options being denigrated, but Susac and Duffy did well after their first month of adjustments, plus Perez has been good in stretches as well, and Arias was on fire at the end of the season.

An article I was reading about how good the Royals are noted how they are proof that you don't need two aces to get through the playoffs and reach the World Series.  What it is proof of is that when you got two teams who don't have multiple aces, somebody has to win the series, two aces or not.  That's obvious, on the face of it, but nobody seems to notice that is the reality.  The point about having multiple aces is to maximize your team's chances of making it through the playoffs, go deep, and get into the World Series.

While the Giants do not have aces this season, in prior runs, they did have them, in terms of performances, in Cain, Lincecum, Bumgarner in 2010, Cain, Bumgarner, Vogelsong in 2012.   I think Bumgarner and Hudson look ready to give us that DOM start, and hopefully Vogelsong can do it too.  Hudson got plenty of rest between starts which has got to help him, and I'm hoping it helps Vogelsong as well.  Peavy has not had one DOM start in the playoffs ever, so this would be a great time for at least one, if not two.   As my study has shown, the starting pitcher's performance in the game makes a huge difference in whether a team wins or not.

Baseball Prospectus published a preview of the World Series.  It notes that the Giants don't give away many outs, being first or near the top in a number of categories like fewest outs on the bases.  Yost's lack of usage of pinch-hitters, but frequent use of pinch-runners.  Bumgarner's four-seam fastball being one of the few "80" pitches in the league, and arguably getting better with each start.  Opponents this October are hitting .132 against the four-seamer with a .132 SLG, meaning zero ISO.  Shields leaning heavily on the cutter, which is the pitch Panik hit a homer off of Wainwright because of the work he put in studying Bill Mueller hitting a homer of Mariano Rivera.  The author also noted that his cutter has been elevating it more than usual, with three homers, as he's been hit fairly hard, so that's something to watch out for too.

Scenario Thinking

I was reading Kawakami's column analyzing the World Series - he picked the Giants in 6 games - and I realized that such an exercise would not have any value if I take a scenario approach to it.

And the theme, much as it has been this post-season, pivots on what happens in Game 1.  I think Bumgarner is going to have the game of his life.  He has risen to the occasion so very often, and has two shut-outs already in the previous World Series.  I expect him to win Game 1 and Game 5 - which is what Kawakami thinks too - which reduces it to winning two games in five for Peavy (2 games), Hudson (2 games), Vogelsong (1 game).  I also think that the Royals, so used to running over the other teams in the playoffs that a loss would put that seed in their mind, and the Giants would win in 4 or 5 games, mainly because they have Petit in reserve in the likelihood that a starter has a rough and/or short start, then Lincecum, who should be very rested by now.  I'm about 80% sure he'll win, both because he'll pitch well, as well as Shields will give it up at some point.

In the scenario that the Giants lose Game 1, I still think that the Giants will win in 6 or 7 games.  Overall, the Royals staff did not rise to the occasion in the ALCS, they just did well enough to beat the Orioles, but the Royals did not beat the Orioles, the Orioles lost to the Royals, as their starting pitching let them down.  And if they struggled to rise to their seasonal potential in the ALCS, I suspect they will struggle some, as a group, in the World Series.  They also had issues with DIS starts in the regular season as well, the World Series could amplify that tendency.

For, as I've documented here before, prior research found that offense demonstrated during the season don't correlate with playoff success (BP and THT).  It is good pitching and fielding that correlates.  Thus, it is up to each team's starters and relievers to dictate the action.

I had forgotten to check, but Shields has been mostly a mess starting in the playoffs (Fangraphs has a blog on this too, found it after writing this).  He does have some DOM starts to his credit:  in 9 starts, 4 DOM and 2 DIS or 44% DOM/22% DIS.  However, he has held opponents to three runs allowed or less only four of those starts, meaning he has given up four or more runs in five of those starts.

All the other Royals are playoff newbies.  Vargas has risen to the occasion with two DOM starts.  Ventura had a DOM in the ALDS but a 2 PQS in the ALCS.  Guthrie didn't even get a start in the ALDS and had a 2 PQS in the ALCS as well.  As much as it's said that experience is not key in the World Series, it is if the pitcher's can not handle the adrenaline rush in the early part of the game, and they make all sorts of location mistakes.  And given what happened in the ALCS, I have to think that at least one if not two of the Royal's starters will falter in their first World Series start.  That should be enough to win it again for the Giants.

However, if their starters step up and pitch to how well they did in the regular season, it will be a battle between the two teams that will be epic, particularly if Shields step up against Bumgarner, and the Championship will pivot on one key play/mistake being made at some point during the series, creating another Series hero.

Go Giants!  Win us another championship!  #ChampionBlood #ThreeIsANiceNumber

Your 2014 Giants: NLCS Game 4: What a Relief

My thoughts following Game 4 of the NLCS.

ogc thoughts

Bullpen combines with Posey and Adams' two bad moves (which led to the two runs that was our lead) was crucial for the win, 6-4.  Petit for President!  He is like found money in a jacket, our Lincecum for this playoff season, totally shut down.  Posey hasn't yet had an extra-base hit, but he did what he needed to, driving in three runs.  He now has 19 RBIs and is only two away from Bonds' franchise record.  Meanwhile, Sandoval gets on base and that's 22 consecutive playoff games with him getting on base, breaking Bonds' franchise record.

If Adams don't try to throw out Perez and just got Blanco out, they would have been out of the inning probably (if Panik still grounds out), and we would go into extra innings and see if Bochy would use Lincecum at all.

So there is no pressure on the Giants tomorrow, plus they got Bumgarner on the mound, 0.76 ERA in the playoffs, 23 K in 23.2 IP, only 3 walks, 7.67 K/BB.  .367 OPS by opposing batters.  69% strikes.

You Gotta Like These Kids!!!

Juan Perez comes in and work a walk, Duffy come in and sacrifices the runners to 2nd and 3rd (remember, Felipe Alou's inability to bunt and advance the runners in 1962 cost the Giants), Panik grounds out but drives in what proves to be the winning run.  Panik also singled in the first, more importantly, advanced Blanco to 3rd, where Posey could drive him in.

There is a new tech on MLB.com called StatCast, and this video and article digs into the details of Perez's dash home to score around the tag by AJP to get him out.  This is pretty good stuff, and it showed Crawford and Blanco running as well.  It also felt nice to beat AJP there.

Petit Performs Prominently

Petit does it again:  shuts down the other team.  This time, 3.0 IP, 1 hit and 1 walk, 4 K's, earns the win (who says the stat ain't got no value?).   Vogie just didn't have it, but Petit saves the game for the Giants.

I felt that he had earned himself a start, but I can understand why Bochy might not do it.  While Petit is comfortable coming in for a failing starter, the starters he might replace are not.  So if Petit is started, and he fails, then who do we go to, a starter who is not used to relieving?

Still, should we make it to the next round, if it were me, I would start Petit, and not only start him, but make him the Game 2 or 3 starter.  Go for the jugular early.

Sabers Missing the Point:  This Bullpen is Worth It

Every time the Giants signed up Affeldt, Romo, Casilla, Lopez to a big contract, the catcalls and naysaying begin.  Fungible asset.  They don't produce enough WAR to justify the money.  Just pick up somebody cheap, the Giants do it all the time, just replace them on the cheap.

This is why the Giants pay these guys the big money.  Affeldt hasn't given up a run in the post-season in 17 consecutive appearances.  Casilla hasn't in 16 appearances, Lopez is at 15 appearances.   Heck, Casilla had not given up a hit since September 11th, over a month ago.  Romo has only given up runs in two appearances in his last 20, one in his last 13 appearances.  

How invaluable have they been for us this post-season?  How invaluable is it knowing that you got guys who understand their roles, who do it so well, and above all that, are consistently good?   How many of these one-run games would we have lost had these guys been even yielding one run as a group, regularly?  Is it worth the collective $22-24M or so for them to advance from the NLDS to the NLCS to leading 3-1 in trying to make the World Series?  Would you rather be efficient, potentially (see, they forget that if you bet wrong in selecting your replacement relievers, there's no easy way to replace that production, no matter how much money you throw at it), or would you rather advance to the next round?  

I would think the A's would have loved to have had a shut down relief corps at their disposal.  They led 7-3 and 8-7, and could not hold either lead.  Not to pick on Otero, because I was disappointed the Giants let him go, but he was a cheap effective reliever for them in the regular season, great numbers, but he gave up 2 runs that ended the game.  Think they wouldn't have loved to have someone better available then.  Or how about Doolittle?  He has a cheap contract, became the closer this season, so relatively inexperienced, and he gave up the tying run in the 9th.

Think they wouldn't have loved to have Casilla?  In fact, he was an A's property until they released him after the 2009 season.  The Giants picked him up for nothing, shaped him up, and he was immediately a very important component of the Giants bullpen, rising to closer role twice, though even today, he says that he don't consider himself the closer, he just goes in when the boss says so.   The Giants are paying him around $5M per season to do his role on the team.  16 straight appearances without a run given up.  Collectively among the four, one run in a total of 60 or so appearances.  

How much is that worth when you expect to make the playoffs every season?

Too Much Rope for Starters

Again, I didn't understand Bochy's insistence on keeping the starter in there.  Vogelsong did not have anything at all in this game.  He was clearly grinding it, and you would have thought after giving up the third run, and now facing a LHH in Wong, who was also white hot as a hitter, and down 3-1, you don't leave him in to face Wong.

I guess it is as some have said, Bochy has lost faith in the middle relievers.  Plus, in this case, didn't want to bring in the LHP yet either, so early in the game.   But Petit was already up at that point, may as well put him in and not risk another run being driven in.

I know some will say that this is just hindsight, but that was my first thought when I heard that Vogie was staying in to face Wong.

If Vogie is this bad, should he get another start this post-season, I hope Bochy will hook him earlier.  There was no sign that he had anything, I would have put Petit in earlier, starting with the third, to be frank, because from the radio report, I saw no purpose in keeping him in there other than wishing and hoping that he don't give up more runs while eating more innings.  I had none faith he had it tonight, and there's no shame in that, it happens, and when it does, especially when you have the luxury of a Petit and Lincecum, you go to your GOTO guy in Petit.

With Petit, keeping Lincecum around is a big question mark, other than his stature and salary.  Especially given his revelation that he has not had his father's help with his mechanics since the 2009 season.  Also, apparently both Machi and Strickland have been downgraded in terms of reliance, at least in this series.

Perhaps we'll see Kontos in the World Series, should we make it to the next round.  He would have been useful in the 7th or earlier in many of these games.  And he's been a good reliever this season.  I actually thought that he was a slamdunk to make the playoff rosters, so I was shocked that he was left off.

However, who would then sit out the World Series.  I could have seen maybe Lincecum before, but not for the World Series, they have carried him so far, I don't see why they won't do it again.  That would leave either Strickland or Machi.  Will be interesting.

Game 5

Seems inevitable - we got our ace going for us at home, plus momentum - but as we saw in 2012, that can go fast, just like that.  That's why I love the way Bochy has taught all the players and got them to buy into the fact that until you are in, you are out.  Every game is important, every game is a must win.

Just like Game 4, we led 2-1 in the series, 70% odds of winning the series, and had we lost the game, that would come crashing down, as then we would be tied 2-2, and basically down to roughly 50% again (one home game, two road).  Instead now we are 3-1, commanding position, and yet, still some odds we lose, probably around 15% or so, small but not insignificant either.

Still, Bumgarner is on a roll.  3 DOM starts (all 5 PQS) so far in the playoffs.  If not for an ill-timed error on a bunt, he might still be continuing his scoreless streak in the playoffs (as it is, he's still continuing the road portion of that).  Plus he's at home, though this year, he has a 4.03 ERA at home, and only 2.22 ERA on the road.  However, over his career, basically same home or road, low 3's, roughly 3.1 ERA.

But the problem was that he started the season with four bad starts at home.  Rest of season, 3.41 ERA at home.   This is why you start with the seasonal data and then peel away some of the data if things change, to get a better view of things, because while seasonal data is good for an overall view, outliers of a game or two or four can skew the view, and once he fixed his problems, he has been great since.  That's why you don't look at the 4.03 ERA, but rather his 3.41 ERA for the rest of the season, as well as his career 3.1 ERA at home.

According to this article on MLB.com, Wainright identified the problems with his mechanics that was affecting his performance.   He thinks that he has solved his problems after working with AJP (ironic, no?) to figure out what was wrong.  They apparently figured it out during that game, after he was taken out of the game.  So it could be a battle between two aces looking to win the game.

However, reading the article, I see that Wainwright talks about his arm feeling better but not feeling healthy.  And he said he was ready to go before Game 1, so his reliability in telling the full truth of his health is not so good.   So I'll believe it when I see it.  The game could be over pretty quick if Wainright is not right, and Bumgarner can then coast to a win.  But if he is right, it will be a battle, which probably leads to a battle between bullpens and offenses again.

My thoughts on Hembree, BABIP usage in Minors

This was a comment in response to a statement a while back about Hembree's BABIP "regressing to the mean" since it was higher than .300

ogc thoughts

The problem with using BABIP for minor league pitchers is that not all pitchers figure out the skill of hewing to the BABIP mean of .300 in the majors.  This gets especially iffy then for relievers where it is all SSS and BABIP isn't all that accurate.   So Hembree bad BABIP does not necessarily mean that there will be a regression to the mean.

There is a great interview with Mike Fast of the Astros where he talked about learning this while working inside (he was a well known sabermetrician prior to joining the Astros, for those who didn't know).   He noted that DIPS don't quite apply in the minors, that there are pitchers who don't learn the fine art of keeping BABIP to the mean .300 that most MLB pitchers do learn.  Search for interview with Mike Fast of Astros and that should get you the right link.

Not that Hembree hasn't learned, just that you can't just quote a high BABIP and make that assumption.   Checking out his numbers (reminder, this was written a while back), his career BABIP is roughly .327, so perhaps he hasn't learned.  And subtracting his poor numbers this season, his career BABIP previously was still .316, so perhaps this is an issue with Hembree.

Again, SSS, but the Giants must have a reason for keeping him down, I was amazed this off-season that Law got all the love from the Giants FO while Hembree barely got any mention, even though he had a stellar performance for them in his 2013 call-up, I thought he would be at least penciled in for a spot in 2014 opening day, since Sabean said that they needed to improve their bullpen.   But even Dunning got more mention for the bullpen than Hembree, it seemed to me.

And looking at his numbers, as closer, he should not be that messed up by poor relief with his inherited runners, and yet his ERA in AAA has never been all that good.  Yes, it's an offensive league, but there are plenty of pitchers who are better, he was 76th in the league.   And if DIPS don't work in the minors, ERA is all we got.  

He does have great K/BB ratios, and that will probably get him his chance, but if he can't figure out the BABIP issue, his chances to be a major leaguer, let alone a closer, is pretty iffy.   The good thing for him is that he has pretty good command and control, so he can minimize walks, but hits is what hurts, especially for a reliever, particularly for the closer expected to come in sometimes with runners on.  Giving up hits is fine if he's strictly closing when starting the 9th with no outs and no runners, but not so good when coming in a truer save situation. 

He must be grooving in pitches in order to avoid walks, so it seems to me that he needs to learn that walks aren't all that bad to give up if it means that you are giving the hitter good pitches to hit for base hits.   He has a very high K/9, he can afford to walk a few more if that means less hits given up, better to give up one more walk than one more hit, the vast majority of the time.

That said, I agreed with what was said about him.  He's probably coming up by season's end and getting some 7/8th inning action.  He's probably up for the closer role in 2015, but I wouldn't bet on it given the above.  Plus Casilla appears to be the man right now, though if Machi ever rights his ship, he could be considered given his experience closing in Venezuela.   And Affeldt could easily slip into the closer role, I think.  

In any case, Hembree should be out of options by next season, so he's most probably making the 25-man roster next season barring any implosion on his part in the spring 2015.   But even that's not a given, even if Romo leaves (doubtful he stays unless willing to accept reliever money like Affeldt and not closer money like Wilson), I expect Kontos to take a spot in the bullpen after his great comeback this season.  So Hembree's probably battling Kontos, Machi, Gutierrez for three spots in the bullpen, with Casilla, Affeldt, Lopez, and Petit in the other four bullpen spots (that's assuming Petit doesn't take Vogelsong's spot in the rotation, but then maybe Kickham takes that long reliever spot, right now).  And given Romo's difficulties now and ties to the Giants, he might accept an set-up reliever contract like Affeldt, Casilla, Lopez have gotten and be retained, making it only two spots open among the four.

And push come to shove, if it's three spots, probably its him against Gutierrez for the final spot, though I've noticed the Giants have been pushing their relievers to go beyond 1 inning, so Hembree could take the long relief spot by being able to pitch 2 innings to bridge to the middle relievers, who could also go 2 innings as necessary.

Your 2014 Giants: Affeldt Close to Returning, But Then Who Goes?

There is a nice article by Baggerly about this topic.

Why I Love Giants Management: Part Deux

A recent news from spring training regarding Derek Law (here's article by Pavlovic) got me singing the praises of Giants management again.

2014 Giants: Projected Wins With Steamer

Fangraphs provides a number of projections for players on their website and one of them is Steamer, which they then use to populate a depth chart for each team, then calculate the projected wins for them.  If you look at that depth chart website, and sort by the total, the Giants are roughly in the middle of the majors in wins, with 36.6 WAR.  Their methodology assumes 48 WAR base for all teams as replacement level, so that works out to 84.6 Wins for the Giants in 2014 per the Steamer projections.

ogc thoughts

I've collected a number of projections and Steamer's results in the lowest runs scored per the lineup calculator, so this is not too surprising.  Oddly enough, the WAR numbers for the offense don't look too much out of place, so I guess offense is assumed to be very down in the majors per their projections.  But I was not happy with the pitching and that is where I went in and dug around on the numbers.  First the starters:

• Bumgarner:  they had 3.4 but he's easily 3.8
• Cain:  they had 1.9, assuming he's declined, but he should be back to prior goodness, I think, so 4.0
• Lincecum:  they had 1.9 but I think 2.0 is realistic even given how he was the last two seasons, but a minor quibble, but since I did the work...
• Hudson:  they had 1.5, assuming he's declined, but I think he should be back to prior goodness, 2.3

Then the bulllpen, oy, not sure what drove their thinking there:

• Romo:  0.7 but looking at past performance, should be 1.1
• Casilla:  -0.4 but looking at past performance, should be 0.0
• Affedlt:  -0.1 but looking at past performance, should be 0.3
• Lopez:  0.1, and I don't understand how they got that, must be his age, but should be 0.6 based on past

Between the two, starters and relievers, that should add another 5.5 wins, leaving the Giants at 90.1 wins projection for 2014.  I'm good with that projection, I think the Giants should be able to do at least that, barring any catastrophic injury to someone key.  I think we have enough pitching prospects to cover the bullpen and probably one starter, plus Petit should pitch a lot more innings as a reliever if the starters are healthy.

And I think the upside for Sandoval (offense and defense, he was rated great on defense in 2011 when he was fit), Belt, and Crawford should cover any problems with the offense that might pop up, like losing someone to injury or a regression on Pence's part.  Plus, Morse is only projected for 0.9 WAR in total, but if he hits like he did before, that should increase.  And, Bochy plans on taking him out the last three innings for defensive purposes, which would help Blanco boost his WAR via defense (projected at only 0.5 WAR in LF) and reduce Morse's really bad defensive numbers by a third.

Now will 90 wins get them into the playoffs?  Usually, based on the recent past for NL teams, and probably now that there's the extra wildcard team added in.  The Reds got in with 90 wins in 2013 and the Cards got in with 88 in 2012.  And in 2011, had they had the extra, 89 wins get the next team into the wildcard game.

Of course, just getting in as a wild card makes things harder, as the team has to blow off their ace in that game.  But if the pitchers perform the way I expect, the Giants should have at least three aces to chose from for that wildcard game, then can rest him for game 3 of the divisional playoffs.

On top of that, except for LA, none of the NL West was over .500 in 2013, and nobody acquired anybody that huge that I can remember, to boost them up, though Steamer projects the Dodgers at 89.6 wins, Rockies at 86.3 wins, and D-backs at 85.3 wins, which are all above Steamer's projected wins but below my adjusted projected wins.

Of course, their fans might see upside on their rosters too.  Looking at their numbers, first off, no way Puig hits that well, he was a roughly .800 for good portions of the season after his hot start, .861 seems way too high.  Basically he had one hot month, then from July 3, a good .272/.363/.453/815 but nowhere near .861 OPS projection.  And Steamer has A-Gon at .844, something he has not sniffed for two seasons now, I'm amazed that they boosted up his projection to something he has not seen since 2011.  And frankly, I don't understand how AJ Ellis is worth 3.3 WAR with a .704 OPS and hardly any defensive value.   Makes it seem like they are undervaluing Posey.

For the Rockies, somehow their pitching is rated much better than the Giants.  And while they downsized our top relievers, somehow Hawkins himself will produce more WAR than Romo/Affeldt/Lopez/Casilla, and Brothers will produce the same as Hawkins, 1.1 WAR each.  And their rotation is supposedly better as well, even though Anderson has pitched barely 150 IP in the last three seasons, but they project him at 91 IP and 1.7 WAR.  And somehow their pitchers at low 4's ERA or FIP is worth 2.5 to 2.9 WAR, while the Giants pitchers, projected at mid to high 3's are worth 1.5 to 1.9 WAR.

The D-backs bullpen is also somehow better than the Giants  as well as their rotation.  Again, not sure how they got their guys in the positive while our bullpen is totally downgraded relative to what they have not only done in 2014, but  had done for a number of years now.

Ugh, just found out something odd.  The depth chart has Buster at 6.3 WAR but his profile has him at 7.1!  But the next players on the Giants list were within 0.1 or 0.2 of their depth chart figure.  So be aware of this, and this is probably happening for the other teams too, but the differences seems to be random, so they should balance out for the most part.  And I think the 6.3 seems realistic given that he probably playing 1B not as much as listed, I don't expect to see Belt sit that often, maybe 10 games tops.  Overall, looking at the other teams, the WAR seemed reasonable except for the ones I pointed out above.

In any case, I think the Giants should win at least 90 games in 2014, and easily.  This Steamer projection says that probably they won't reach that, but I pointed out my problems with their projections, and that would bring them up to 90 wins.  And no matter how the other NL West teams do, generally, winning 90 games gets you a spot in the playoffs, and with our pitching, that can carry us deep, as shown in 2010 and 2012.

They just need to stay away from injuries, which sunk 2011 (Posey) and 2013 (Pagan, Vogie, Scutaro, Crawford, Sandoval, Affeldt being the main problems).  And as they showed in April/May (until Pagan injury) and September 2013, when they were mostly healthy, they can win:  they were a collective 43-33 over those periods, a .566 winning percentage, or 91.7 wins in a 162 season.  

Giants Latest to Pick up Rosario: Last?

As reported a few days ago by the Chronicle and SFGiants.com, the Giants picked up Sandy Rosario via waivers, after a successive of waiver claims - plus a trade in the middle by the A's and subsequent loss back to Boston, but not before shipping Graham Godfrey over the Red Sox for nothing - left Rosario with five team changes in this off-season alone.  He has not done much in the majors, in fact, stunk, but had great minor league stats.  Will the Giants be his final team of this off-season?

ogc thoughts

I think so, at least for much of spring training, as I have to think that he is out of options and must either make the team or be put throught waivers again.  I view this as another one of the Giants reclamation projects akin to their pickup of Santiago Casilla, not that he'll necessarily be as good (and who knows, he could be better, look at his minor league record).  A hard thrower who has had a ton of control problems in recent years in the majors, showing a major case of jitters perhaps, as he has had a very good career of controlling his walks in the minors.  But not only that, but he couldn't strike out many in the majors either.  Still, very limited usage in the majors, so who knows what he might do if given some time to calm down and pitch.

He had a bit of a breakout season in 2012 in AAA, 1.04 ERA in 25 appearances with 16 saves, 26.0 IP with only 20 hits and 2 walks, striking out 24 for a 0.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, and 12.0 K/BB ratio, showing the excellent control he has had most of his career, in fact, a career high by almost double in K/BB ratio.  That is Romo territory at the major league level.

Nice pickup, overall.  He's a strikeout machine in the minors, exhibit a lot of control, really, most of his career, his major problem has been giving up too many hits, in spite of all the strikeouts.  He would be really good if he can do three things with the Giants:  one, avoid the hits, the BABIP on him has been incredible in the minors, but that could just be very very bad BABIP luck because as a reliever, he doesn't get a lot of IP, two, bring his strikeout ability to the majors, where it has been sorely missing, and three, control the walks, and he does have those last two on his minor league resume, he just needs to bring that consistently to the majors.  And the Giants have had a pretty good record in the Sabean era with pickups, except for the dark years of rebuilding and losing.

But he will be 27 YO for the next season, so he does not have much more time to figure things out.  Hopefully the Giants pitching doctors, particularly Dick Tidrow, will find the cure for what ails Sandy.

He takes a spot on the 40 man roster, leaving the Giants at 38.

In addition, the Giants added Cole Gillespie, signing him to a minor league contract, which is just going to confuse me even more as we still have Conor Gillaspie in our farm system.  I have occasionally caught myself confusing the two of them for each other when reading about prospects.  :^)

Conor is most probably gone by opening day as I believe he is finally out of options and will have to be put through waivers once the Giants decide that he is not going to make the 25 man roster.  He has mainly played 3B, so he will need to show some versatility in spring that he can play other positions, else he's probably better off with an American League team that can DH him regularly.

I can see Minnesota being into him, they took Buscher off our hands a while back and gave him a lot of playing time despite hitting that was not that good at 3B (wasn't really good even for SS), though I don't know what their 3B situation is right now.  But like I noted, DH is probably a good spot for him.

Your 2013 Giants: Casilla Signed for 3 Years, $15M

Avoiding arbitration, the Giants signed du jour closer Santiago Casilla to a 3 years, $15M contract, which has a vesting option for the fourth year, which is currently a team option with $1M buyout (Baggarly, Schulman, Pavlovic, Haft).  It is still pending a physical, but those are generally a legal formality.

This sews up his last arbitration year plus two free agent years and controls a third year as well.   This also covers returning the last important piece of the bullpen, as now Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, Casilla, are signed and Kontos and Mijares are controlled, leaving a spot open for competition, as Mota is not expected back (nor was he that important either).  Also, Shane Loux was resigned recently as well.

ogc thoughts

Another dotted i and crossed t.  The bullpen is now pretty set (not that it wasn't before, as the Giants did tender a contract) with only one spot open.   With Hembree, Otero, Hacker, Loux, Machi, and Runzler still around, I assume the Giants are keeping that last position open for competition, as they usually do when they have a number of prospects on the cusp of reaching the majors.  That is why I think they most likely will keep LF open as well.  Of course, if a great option for either becomes available for a great low price pre-spring training, things could change, but for now, competition appears likely.

I like the deal, even though it covers ages 32 to 34 and could include 35.   Relievers are generally reliable into their mid-30's.  The concern is that Casilla has had injury problems in the past and includes his blister problem in 2012, when he was pushed to 73 appearances, a giant leap in usage over his previous years of around 50 games and 50 IP, but his usage was more Roogy in that he only pitched 63.1 IP.  

Casilla has been an integral part of the Giants bullpen since he joined the Giants.  He turned his career around when he came up with a devastating spike curve that complemented his mid-90's fastball, something the A's apparently was not aware of when they let him go (one would think that he could not have added such a great pitch so quickly once the Giants signed him, but I'm not sure of the timing of this addition).  That led to his 2.22 ERA in three seasons with the Giants and two World Champion rings.

I think the Giants are going to go with a closer du jour usage pattern during 2013 in order to save Romo's arm, which has always been iffy because of his slider.  That fits with Casilla's problems with his blister when he became full-time closer last season.  Spread the duty around - including Affeldt and Lopez - so that if one part goes down, there are the others to keep it going.  Could be the first successful bullpen by committee over a full season if they can pull it off.

Cy Zito: So Far So Good

When Barry Zito returned to action, it was noted in an article that one of the big changes he has made was to drop the slider out of his repertoire because that had to be thrown from a different slot than his other pitches, which affected his command for his other pitches, and that this slider was added after his Cy Young season, and, it was implied, was partly to blame for his decline from that great season.  Suggesting, of course, that we will see a new Barry the rest of this season.  So far, so good, though as noted before, he had a similar great stretch to start 2010 and everything declined from there.