First thought is this: why did I give up so much to get him in trade in my fantasy leagues? :^D
Second is, let's see what it looks like in FanGraphs, which is my favorite analysis tool now. Obviously, his overall stats STINK. The only good thing with the naked eye is his raised K-rate, which is more in line with his past history than his short stint in the majors last season. Otherwise, everything is up and, did I mention this: they STINK.
Getting Over the Hype
It sure looks like baseball karma is reversing him to the mean from his stellar start in the majors last season. But when you look at his peripherals, his key pitching indicators, it looks like he is improved in some key areas and just suffering extreme bad luck in other areas.
First off, there's his much improved K-rate. It is now near the top pitchers of the league right now, whereas last season it was much lower and nearer the poorer pitchers. But that is partially countered by a slight, but significant rise in his walk-rate, pushing it into poor category (refresher on terminology: FanGraphs delineates Good from Poor performance by placing a bracket around the performance of the Top 20% and Bottom 20% of players in that particular stat). However, his K/BB key indicator, while not in the good range, it has certainly been near or over the 2.0 that Ron Shandler teaches is the minimum you want out of your pitcher on a regular basis.
His HR/9 is off the charts right now. And his WHIP is off the charts as well, well into the poor section of the chart. But that is a result of his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls-In-Play) being off the charts as well, very much in the poor area. And Ron Shandler's book states that this stat will regress to the mean of .300 over time, so you can see this as payback for Cain's abnormally low BABIP in the majors last season. So his WHIP should go down as his BABIP falls back to normal levels.
Looking Forward
Cain should be doing much better later in the season, he appears to be just suffering karmic payback for his extreme good luck last season to start his career. With his improved K-rate and K/BB ratio, they indicate that he should be doing better than he is right now. However, his HR/9 and BABIP are abnormally high right now. I've already noted his BABIP should go down (currently .325) to .300 as the season progresses. In addition, his HR/9 should drop over time because his HR/FB (fly ball) rate is at 17.6%, which countered his 5.9% for last season, because 10% is the rate that Ron Shandler's book says pitchers should revert to the mean to.
In addition, his batted ball profile looks much improved this season. His GB/FB ratio is much improved this season, at 1.0 and nearly double his rate last season, and increased ground balls is good for a pitcher as ground balls typically lead to more outs and less bases than fly balls. And that is a result of a big increase in ground balls and a reduction in line drives, which he has been able to do this season. Unfortunately, this season it has resulted in a lot of extra hits instead of extra outs, but this should even out as the season progresses and his results will improve greatly.
His walk rate is still abyssmal, though, and must go down before he starts getting better results. However, his strikes to balls ratio has gone up with each game, which if he continues, he should be getting better with this as the season goes forward. It has gone from a strike per pitch rate of 57% to 61% to 64%. His best games last season were games where his strike per pitch rate was 63% and higher.
In addition, based on his game results so far, his PQS (Pure Quality Starts, from Ron Shandler) score for each game has been 3, 4, and 1. So he has pitched one slightly above average game, one dominating game, and one poor game, based on his key indicators. But the poor game was in Arizona, which is a known extreme hitters' park and he should not be pitching many games there during the season, as things will even out as he pitches in less hitter's havens and more in neutral and/or pitcher's parks.
So no need to throw in the towel on Cain yet. As bad as the results have been, it looks like it should get better as the year progresses because he is suffering from extreme bad luck this season after experiencing extreme good luck last season. In addition, he has been able to boost up his K-rate and strike-per-pitch significantly and, if he can continue that, he should experience more success than he has thus far. Not that he needed this lesson, but he should consider this a lesson in humility, which he already had a lot of anyway, for if he can just continue to pitch like he has, he should do fine this season.
Monday, April 24, 2006
Saturday, April 22, 2006
Relax, the Season is Just Getting Started, Enjoy it a Little
All around me I see Giants fans running around like in the recent kiddies movie, Chicken Little: "the sky is falling." And maybe it is. But it is too soon in the season to really know what is going on yet. Sure, there are plenty of warning signs (meteor craters?), particularly Friday Night's atrocity, but it is all small samples, skewed by parks.
First, the offense is horrible but the starting pitching is good. But we're playing in pitcher's parks for the most part early on. Now the the offense is revving up but the starting pitching is crap. But now we're playing in hitter's parks. The only constant is that the relievers are all crap and have been, even Worrell now has joined the main group of slackers, only Kline is doing semi-decent.
I'm not saying that we haven't been seeing some horrible baseball so far, despite the winning record. I'm just saying that we need to let things settle down and see what happens. Teams need about 6-8 weeks to settle down to what we can expect from them going forward. That's when teams can reassess without knee-jerk reactions to some players' slumps that's killing this or that in the early weeks of the season.
I recall the 2004 season, many fans were talking trash about the team, one fan talked about how "foresighted" he was about the Giants struggles and generally trashiness. But there were extenuating circumstances surrounding that season's poor start - mainly injuries - and, wouldn't you know it, next thing you know, Schmidt throws a nice game against the Cubs, I think it was a shutout even, and starts the team on a huge run where they played themselves back into contention, as hitters fell out of slumps and the pitchers finally figure things out and do well going forward.
So, for now, enjoy the good that you can find, whether it's a nice starter's outing, or timely hitting, or some homeruns and RBIs, or a reliever shutting down the opposition 1-2-3. The time for consternation over our favorite team's struggles will come soon enough, but right now is too early to really worry (or to get overly excited) about anyone's play unless, that is, he's on the DL for a month or two, then you are REALLY screwed! :^(
First, the offense is horrible but the starting pitching is good. But we're playing in pitcher's parks for the most part early on. Now the the offense is revving up but the starting pitching is crap. But now we're playing in hitter's parks. The only constant is that the relievers are all crap and have been, even Worrell now has joined the main group of slackers, only Kline is doing semi-decent.
I'm not saying that we haven't been seeing some horrible baseball so far, despite the winning record. I'm just saying that we need to let things settle down and see what happens. Teams need about 6-8 weeks to settle down to what we can expect from them going forward. That's when teams can reassess without knee-jerk reactions to some players' slumps that's killing this or that in the early weeks of the season.
I recall the 2004 season, many fans were talking trash about the team, one fan talked about how "foresighted" he was about the Giants struggles and generally trashiness. But there were extenuating circumstances surrounding that season's poor start - mainly injuries - and, wouldn't you know it, next thing you know, Schmidt throws a nice game against the Cubs, I think it was a shutout even, and starts the team on a huge run where they played themselves back into contention, as hitters fell out of slumps and the pitchers finally figure things out and do well going forward.
So, for now, enjoy the good that you can find, whether it's a nice starter's outing, or timely hitting, or some homeruns and RBIs, or a reliever shutting down the opposition 1-2-3. The time for consternation over our favorite team's struggles will come soon enough, but right now is too early to really worry (or to get overly excited) about anyone's play unless, that is, he's on the DL for a month or two, then you are REALLY screwed! :^(
Wednesday, April 19, 2006
Retroactive Punishment for Bonds
I understand why people are upset about Bonds passing hallowed records like most homers by a left-handed hitter (Ruth) and most homers in MLB history (Aaron) but I don't understand the call for asterisking or, even more extreme, striking his stats from the point where he is alleged to have started using. We haven't done that to anyone else in baseball history, why should we do it now? Records should not be the litmus test for whether things should be done, this punishment should be done consistently against all cases.
Past Law Breakers
For instance, Ty Cobb didn't break any official rule of baseball, but when he slid into bases for steals, he had his spikes up, ready to maim the infielder to get his base. As far as I understand the law, maiming people and the act of trying to maim people is a punishable crime. Should we go and take away all his stolen bases? Or at least asterisk them? "* cruel slider, hurt many infielders, generally bad person"
How about Pete Rose's gambling? In this case, he did break baseball laws. And many believe that he did this even in his playing days, which sounds logical to me, how would he just start up only when he was a manager? No, he probably already was doing it. Should we eliminate all his hits? Or at least asterisk them? "* gambled on baseball, generally bad person"
How about Gaylord Perry? Again, he broke baseball laws and admittedly so, as laid out in his book(s). Should we take away his Cy Young award and all his wins? Or at least asterisk them? "* used illegal spitter, quite a curmudgeon, raconteur"
Whether or not they are officially asterisked, any baseball fan with some sense of the history of the game will mentally affix these asterisks themselves, and yet there has never been a call to remove their stats, expurgate them from the records. Why is this any different? Why just Bonds' records? It is a slippery slope, trying to go back into history and asterisking things or, worse, just pretending they never happened by eliminating the stats.
If You Are Going to Do It, Do the Full Monty
I believe that if MLB does anything to punish Bonds retroactively, then they should do the same to Mark McGwire, who is clearly a user or he wouldn't have not stated that he didn't want to dwell in the past, he would have pulled a Palmiero and pointed his finger and exclaim that he never used, and Jose Canseco, who admitted everything in his book. How would they retroactively do this since McGwire and Canseco is retired?
Well, the call has been to disavow the stats that Bonds compiled after allegedly starting to take steroids. Well, that is not good enough and does not go far enough. They need to take the logic all the way to its final conclusion, with an example already used in sports.
Ineligible Player = Ineligible Games
In amateur sports, if it is found that a team had an ineligible player, all games with him in it was forfeited and the records are changed accordingly. So, if they are going to go this route, I think every game from the point of where Canseco says that he started using, should result in forfeits for his team, thus acknowledging the teams that wrongly lost to be the division champs, the AL champs, the World Series champs - obviously we cannot go back and allow the new champs to move on in the playoffs, but at least they are now acknowledged as the champs.
This is because records and stats are not the only thing he gained from his illegal usage, his teams gained his offensive might and that helped his teams to win more games than they should have. He also loses his title as first 40-40 player, as well as all his steroid-enhanced stats and any other awards he might have won, with the runner up getting the title. Same with McGwire.
What about the rest of the team, who didn't cheat, why punish them? This would be the proper punishment for them too because, as many have noted, how could management not know, how could fellow players not know? They should have known but they did nothing, so they should lose it all as well. They could have went to their union, they could have gotten their agents to lobby the union, something could have been done by any of them to make the issue a sore point instead of an overlooked one. Same goes for fans of those teams as well, they should have known better, they should have done something more.
If anyone is going to muck around with retroactively changing stats to punish users, then I don't see why we should go halfway with the punishments. It should be the ultimate punishment, costing the users the ill-gotten wins that they won with their illegal usage, not just their ill-gotten stats. The true victors should be acknowledged or, if both teams had users, then neither will be the champs, that year will be marked with no World Series winner - the precedence there is the year the strike wiped out the World Series, there is no champion for that season. Just go and reclaim all trophies and pennants and strike the records.
Player is Not the Only Person Gaining From the Usage
That is one thing many of these people forget when advocating for the removal of Bonds' stats, there are other people gaining from their usage. If you asterisk his records and stats, all his teams' records and stats should be asterisked as well. And if you remove all his records and stats, then all his teams' records and stats should be removed as well, resulting in forfeiture of all the games played and changing the records for all the teams. That is the logical consequence of such extreme actions, anything less will be wimping out and shallow bandaiding of the situation.
Given that this is the MLB we are talking about, I would not be surprised if they go the shallow route. But if they are going to go this route, they should follow it to its logical conclusion: striking all the records and accomplishments related to those tainted stats. Take away the obvious batting championships, HR championships, Silver Bats, MVPs, but also take away all the divisional, league, and World Series championships as well, there must be a clean sweep of all the records, not just the HR record just because Bonds is passing up Ruth and maybe Aaron (though not at this rate). Otherwise this will be just a witchhunt with Barry Bonds being burned at the stake and all the other "witches" getting away with "I don't want to go over the past" statements.
Past Law Breakers
For instance, Ty Cobb didn't break any official rule of baseball, but when he slid into bases for steals, he had his spikes up, ready to maim the infielder to get his base. As far as I understand the law, maiming people and the act of trying to maim people is a punishable crime. Should we go and take away all his stolen bases? Or at least asterisk them? "* cruel slider, hurt many infielders, generally bad person"
How about Pete Rose's gambling? In this case, he did break baseball laws. And many believe that he did this even in his playing days, which sounds logical to me, how would he just start up only when he was a manager? No, he probably already was doing it. Should we eliminate all his hits? Or at least asterisk them? "* gambled on baseball, generally bad person"
How about Gaylord Perry? Again, he broke baseball laws and admittedly so, as laid out in his book(s). Should we take away his Cy Young award and all his wins? Or at least asterisk them? "* used illegal spitter, quite a curmudgeon, raconteur"
Whether or not they are officially asterisked, any baseball fan with some sense of the history of the game will mentally affix these asterisks themselves, and yet there has never been a call to remove their stats, expurgate them from the records. Why is this any different? Why just Bonds' records? It is a slippery slope, trying to go back into history and asterisking things or, worse, just pretending they never happened by eliminating the stats.
If You Are Going to Do It, Do the Full Monty
I believe that if MLB does anything to punish Bonds retroactively, then they should do the same to Mark McGwire, who is clearly a user or he wouldn't have not stated that he didn't want to dwell in the past, he would have pulled a Palmiero and pointed his finger and exclaim that he never used, and Jose Canseco, who admitted everything in his book. How would they retroactively do this since McGwire and Canseco is retired?
Well, the call has been to disavow the stats that Bonds compiled after allegedly starting to take steroids. Well, that is not good enough and does not go far enough. They need to take the logic all the way to its final conclusion, with an example already used in sports.
Ineligible Player = Ineligible Games
In amateur sports, if it is found that a team had an ineligible player, all games with him in it was forfeited and the records are changed accordingly. So, if they are going to go this route, I think every game from the point of where Canseco says that he started using, should result in forfeits for his team, thus acknowledging the teams that wrongly lost to be the division champs, the AL champs, the World Series champs - obviously we cannot go back and allow the new champs to move on in the playoffs, but at least they are now acknowledged as the champs.
This is because records and stats are not the only thing he gained from his illegal usage, his teams gained his offensive might and that helped his teams to win more games than they should have. He also loses his title as first 40-40 player, as well as all his steroid-enhanced stats and any other awards he might have won, with the runner up getting the title. Same with McGwire.
What about the rest of the team, who didn't cheat, why punish them? This would be the proper punishment for them too because, as many have noted, how could management not know, how could fellow players not know? They should have known but they did nothing, so they should lose it all as well. They could have went to their union, they could have gotten their agents to lobby the union, something could have been done by any of them to make the issue a sore point instead of an overlooked one. Same goes for fans of those teams as well, they should have known better, they should have done something more.
If anyone is going to muck around with retroactively changing stats to punish users, then I don't see why we should go halfway with the punishments. It should be the ultimate punishment, costing the users the ill-gotten wins that they won with their illegal usage, not just their ill-gotten stats. The true victors should be acknowledged or, if both teams had users, then neither will be the champs, that year will be marked with no World Series winner - the precedence there is the year the strike wiped out the World Series, there is no champion for that season. Just go and reclaim all trophies and pennants and strike the records.
Player is Not the Only Person Gaining From the Usage
That is one thing many of these people forget when advocating for the removal of Bonds' stats, there are other people gaining from their usage. If you asterisk his records and stats, all his teams' records and stats should be asterisked as well. And if you remove all his records and stats, then all his teams' records and stats should be removed as well, resulting in forfeiture of all the games played and changing the records for all the teams. That is the logical consequence of such extreme actions, anything less will be wimping out and shallow bandaiding of the situation.
Given that this is the MLB we are talking about, I would not be surprised if they go the shallow route. But if they are going to go this route, they should follow it to its logical conclusion: striking all the records and accomplishments related to those tainted stats. Take away the obvious batting championships, HR championships, Silver Bats, MVPs, but also take away all the divisional, league, and World Series championships as well, there must be a clean sweep of all the records, not just the HR record just because Bonds is passing up Ruth and maybe Aaron (though not at this rate). Otherwise this will be just a witchhunt with Barry Bonds being burned at the stake and all the other "witches" getting away with "I don't want to go over the past" statements.
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