Interesting Question: Alou Abuse (first in series)

Note: I'll be reposting some of my past posts from my old site occassionally to bring some of the content specific to 2006 to my new site. Plus sometimes I will update them in my repost.

This is the first in a series of Interesting Questions (or eventually IQ) that I will periodically write. The main reason I started blogging was just as an experiment to see what the experience was like. But the other one was that, as a Giants fan, there are certain questions that I would have liked to see answered so, when I have time, I look into these questions and write on them, like the matter about the draft pick and Sabean's GM style.

Alou Abuse

I'm a regular at McCovey Chronicles lately and a question that popped up there is one that I've seen often whereever Giants fans post: does Alou abuses Giants pitchers. And the arguments made some sense, about letting starters go too long, about jumping from relief pitcher to next in one or two batters, etc. So I've always wondered about that, whether it's true or not.

What follows I would not call definitive but just some data for thought. I got the latest edition of Bill James annual stats book (he doesn't really do much in there, not like his wonderful annuals in the 80's, but if you feel a debt to him, you should pick one up and, in any case, it's good so pick it up anyway) and there is a section on how managers use their pitchers, both starters and relievers.

The stats I will discuss are Quick Hooks, Slow Hooks, Long Outings, and Relief Appearances. For Quick and Slow Hooks, each game is scored by calculating this - add the number of pitches to 10 times the number of Runs Allowed for the starter - and the bottom 25% of scores are Quick Hooks and the top 25% are Slow Hooks. Long Outings are the number of games in which the starter threw more than 120 pitches. And Relief Appearances are simply that.

Given what fans have been saying about Alou, I would think that he has a lot of quick hooks but very few slow hooks, plus a lot of long outings and a lot of relief appearances.

In the 2005 season, that's not quite true. In Quick Hooks, he was 13th highest out of 16 NL teams with 28, but the three below him were close so I would call it about even (27, 26, 26), essentially a dead heat for last by a clear margin (12th was 40). In Slow Hooks, he was tied for 13th lowest out of 16 NL teams with 47, though clearly not last (47, 55, 66). So in two key categories, Alou is the model of patience with his starters compared to the rest of the NL managers.

However, he was not so good in the other two categories but I don't think they are as bad as it first appears. He was on the high side on the Long Outings (LO) with 7, making him 3rd highest (behind 16 and 10 and just before 6 and 5; average was 4.4 and the median was 3.5). I decided to see who he might have abused and included any game close to LO:

• Schmidt had 2 of the LO with another 6 in the 115-120 pitch range in 29 starts (one 131).
• Lowry had 2 of the LO with another 6 in the 115-120 pitch range in 33 starts (one 128).
• Tomko had 2 of the LO with another 1 in the 115-120 pitch range in 30 starts.
• Hennessey had 0 of the LO with another 2 in the 115-120 pitch range in 21 starts.
• Rueter had 0 of the LO with another 2 in the 115-120 pitch range in 18 starts.
• Cain had 0 of the LO with another 0 in the 115-120 pitch range in 7 starts.

So it does not seem like he really abused any of the starters. Despite having the 3rd highest in the NL, I would not say that any one pitcher was terribly abused, both Schmidt and Lowry tied with 8 LO or close-LO, only about 1 every 4 starts, only 2 each over the 120 threshold.

The last stat, Reliever Appearances, we all know that he's up there - and he is. He had the #1 rank, with 511. And Cincinnati's managers together was 2nd with 487. But the #3 manager was very surprising to me: it was Bobby Cox with 484. So the difference between him and the acknowledged "pitchers manager" is 27 relief appearances, or about 1 extra every 6 games.

To see if there was a one year aberration, I checked Alou's Giants career. His Quick Hooks averaged 34 per season, which would have ranked 13th still. His Slow Hooks averaged 42 per season, tied for 12th. His LO averaged 9 per season, still good for 3rd and a bit higher still than 2005, but does not seem killer. Lastly, his relief apperarances averaged 498, still 1st but Bobby Cox averaged 485 himself and no one has accused him of pitcher abuse that I'm aware of.

Curious pattern for his Giants career, his first year here he was as people expected, high Quick, Low Slow, high Long, high Relief, but then the last two years he swung the pendulum and had low Quick, high Slow, and, as I've tried to show, his Long and Relief, while high in rank, doesn't look that bad, comparatively.

So, no, based on these stats, it does not look like Alou abuses his pitchers any more than other managers do, and, if anything, has been babying them the past two seasons. True, his relief use is high, but so is Cox and I don't see any such criticism aimed his way for his reliever usage.

Your 2006 Giants: Mild Mild West Champs

{Note: I was too busy to cross check - so sorry if these two posts might duplicate stuff or even, god forbid, contradict each other :^). I just want to get them out now, I'll tweak later.}

The Giants look good overall, as I noted in my prior post. Here's how I see them matched up against their NL West opponents. I think that they match up very well.

L.A. D-gers

As bad as the Giants injury situation is, the Dodger's are, IMO, in a worse situation, Garciapparra hasn't played much the past two seasons, really, what is the odds that he'll be fully healed and playing a full season? And Drew is a perennial DL candidate, except, amazingly, the year he went free agent. The best thing, from evil's view, is that Drew is like a yo-yo, he gets hurt, misses a lot of games, which heals him, and he plays more the next year. So this year looks like the bounce up and in prior bounce years he played in 135, 135, 145 games (prior bad years were 104, 109, 100, 72 games) but still that's 20-30 games missed, plus countless others probably where he wasn't 100%. And their backups are Saenz and Ledee, respectively, so there's a huge drop in production. Plus their other big addition of the off-season, Rafael Furcal, has been nagged by injuries in his past, though his knee has been looking good.

Then you go to their starting rotation. Penny is like Drew, something always bothering him each year. Perez is inconsistent and missed a lot of last season to boot due to injury. Speaking of the starting rotation, Seo and Lowe I can see doing well, but this is the same Tomko he was with us, that he's always been, and his career road ERA is 5+ and that won't change pitching in LA or doubling his salary.

Then the bullpen is a mess, unlike past years. Gagne they are not sure if he'll be OK and his back up closer, Baez, really enjoyed pitching in Tampa Bay, his road numbers look pretty bad for a reliever, and particularly a closer, not even a 2:1 K/BB ratio, last year's road was an aberration of his low HR given up.

Then the rest of the team. Lofton has averaged less than 100 games the past two seasons. He and Drew being out so much means they will see a lot of Ledee and Repko. Mueller is a career .157/.219/.169/.387 hitter in Dodger Stadium in 89 AB (about 100 PA). Is he like Grissom who couldn't hit a lick there, before, during, and after being a Dodger but then came back with SF and hit like normal, or is he like Cruz Jr., who loves hitting in LA. So far, more like the former than the latter.

Plus look at the bullpen. After Gagne, Brazoban, and Baez, who are the other guys? One is a throw-in in the Baez trade who was not highly thought of. The other two don't have a season's worth of games between them.

I think our starting rotation and bullpen are much better than LA's and our lineup matches up with their lineup when you account for all the games that will be missed by both team's aged and accident prone players. The Giants should beat the D-gers if everyone is reasonably healthy (i.e. expect see games missing from Durham, Bonds, Alou, Niekro, but not much more than before).

S.D. 'Dres

I don't see how anyone can see them as better than last year. Castilla at 3B? Piazza at C? Rookie at 2B and injury prone SS whose number went down by a lot last year? They added Cameron, but they don't really know what they got, the player he was before the injury or has the injury affected him in some subtle way? Plus Roberts never plays a full season and the backup OF are not that good and/or proven. Or they could move Klesko out there but then play a rookie at first who struggled last season (though I would have loved it if the Giants could have acquired him to play 1B for us). Our lineup should run circles around them, even given games expected to be missed by players on both sides.

And their starting rotation. Jake Peavy is great as the ace but has he recovered from his rib injury that he suffered at the end of the last season? #2 Chris Young, who had his first good season in 2005, is, like 6' 10" and all the problems tall people have pitching consistently working against him doing it again, plus he's pitching in a new league and team. Woody Williams appears to be on his last legs and Chan Ho Park should have been released and playing in the Korea Leagues again if it wasn't for his contract, he's horrible even as the 5th starter, which is why I suppose they are both in the bullpen to start the season. Dewon Brazelton won the battle, if you can call it that, not to denigrate his great spring, for the 4th starter spot. And their 3rd (!?!) starter is Estes, who also wouldn't be good enough for a 5th starter, he looks like he's trying to become the next Woody, few strikeouts, almost as many walks, high BAA, but WHIP OK enough to get his next contract.

Their bullpen is truly better than ours. But if there is no lead to protect at the end, then that's not much of an advantage, because our starting rotation is that much better than the 'Dres. So I don't see how the Giants cannot beat out the Padres, as long as player's health and productions turn out as expected.

AZ D-backs

Their team is very different from what they were last season, when they finished just ahead of us. They added some important pieces to the offense but the pitching has suffered from losses in trade and free agency. They don't look like they are that good overall, certainly not as good as the Giants.

They improved their offense nicely, adding Eric Brynes to CF, Hudson to 2B (but replacing Clayton), Conor Jackson to 1B (plus kept Tony Clark around just in case), and Johnny Estrada at catcher. Plus Chad Tracy can only get better, though it is his sophomore year and many a budding star have crashed on the shores of their 2nd season. So there is some good improvement in the offense.

But these only counteracts the decline that Shawn Green has been going through plus Luis Gonzalez should be slowing down as well, he's getting up there as well. Plus Estrada in 2005 suffered from the dreaded sophomore jinx as his hitting well down a lot, so there is not that much improvement there offensively for sure, it depends on how he recovers from his injuries from his collision at the plate last season. And while I like Brynes as a player, he had a bad 2005, which brings up the question of whether it was a glitch or if he's already declining, which is not impossible, given how hard core he is when he is playing, he could be wearing himself out with his high energy act. And Hudson's offense was good enough for a 2B in Toronto, but now he's moving countries, time zones, and leagues, he will have to adjust to his new league. Lastly, while Jackson is a nice addition, he has big shoes to fill, Troy Glaus, and most probably won't fill them, as most reports I've seen on him states that his power won't show up at the majors for another year or two, as his body matures.

But then, there's the pitching staff. Among relievers, they will be handing the ball to their new closer who did well last year, but one of their best bullpen guys left to join the Giants, Worrell. There is no depth there, only proven players new to relieving and the majors. Among the starting rotation, they lost one of their better pitchers when Vazquez forced them to trade him away, getting only the aged and phyically unreliable "El Duque" Orlando Hernandez to replace Vazquez. So the rotation is manned by their ace, Brandon Webb, but then is rounded out by Hernandez as #2, Miguel Batista as #3 (who they got in trade for Glaus and didn't even start last season, he was the closer), and Russ Ortiz as #4 (their $10M flop last season). Claudio Vargas as #5, while I liked his 2005 season, it was still not that good, though it was good enough for a #5 starter, which is what he'll be, so he should be fine.

The Giants pitching staff is much better than the D-backs, particularly in the bullpen, even if Benitez is out or ineffective. While we don't have anyone as reliably good as Brandon Webb on our staff, we have a very competent staff from 1 to 5, whereas AZ cannot say the same about their starting rotation. Offensively, they probably rate out better than the Giants do, but that depends heavily on Conor Jackson deliverying the offense a 1B normally provides - if he fails to do that, and some of the pre-season prognostication thinks that he may fall short in power, then the Giants are close enough that their pitching should push them over the top relative to the D-backs.

CO D-Rockies

Come on they are D-Rockies! Perennial doormats of the NL West. They have never won more than 83 games in their franchise history. And even if they did that in 2006, that should not be good enough to win the division, SF, LA, AZ, and SD should not be as hampered by injuries as they were last season. That's one of the major reasons while the West was so horrible last season, all the teams were decimated by injuries and poorly performing players (LA lost Gagne, Drew, Perez, among others; SD lost Roberts, Greene, Hernandez plus Niven didn't play up to par; AZ had poor performances from their big acquisition, Russ Ortiz, plus Vazquez was a not up to snuff either, and Green continued to suck).

Winning the Mild Mild West

Again, it is all injury driven and peak performance driven, as it has been for the history of baseball. That is the wild card that makes winning teams lose and mediocre teams win. The teams who can get through a season relatively unscathed plus get a few peak/career performances from a few key players, will rule the day. Each team in the NL West has the capability, at their peak, to run away with the division going away and leave everyone else in the dust. However, when there are so many injury and age related questions and problems, you know that somebody is going to go down, and when the music stop, will it be your team?

Still, there is what can be expected. You expect Bonds to play 80-100 games with a strong possibility for another 20 more, with Finley taking 99% of those missed starts, you expect that Durham will play around 120+ games with Vizcaino taking all of those starts, unless the Giants call up Frandsen (high probability). You expect that Moises won't be playing more than 120-140 games. You expect Schmidt to miss a start here or there but will start most of his games. However, you cannot expect much from Benitez because he hasn't shown anything that would lead us to expect that much from him this season.

Meanwhile, you could say much the same about Gagne and Baez, and expecting a lot of games out of Nomar borders between wishful thinking and fairytale land, though he will probably earn his $6M from his play in the few games he does make it to. And as the Giants showed when there are wholesale changes across the team, things don't always go so smoothly in the transition, as LA, SD, and AZ might find with all their new additional parts.

So I think the Giants at minimum, even if Bonds is out for extended periods, but assuming all other players perform as could be reasonably expected, should stay competitive during the season and be in the hunt for the pennant at the end of the season. Winning the pennant will require Bonds being Bonds. And moving ahead in the playoffs and winning the World Series will also require the pitching staff to reach its potential for dominance.

Which I think there is a good chance of, as Schmidt was pitching back to good standards the last four months of the season, Morris I believe can be dominating the whole 2006 season like he was the first half of 2005, Lowry will consolidate the lessons and experience gained from the last half of 2005, Cain is so good and so willing to learn new things, I just don't see much problems for him going forward, and, lastly, Wright has been able to pitch well away from Colorado and the old Brewers park, but has been able to pitch well at AT&T Mays Field Park and he had a nice spring, though he has a stamina problem going 6 IP, but maybe he could do an nice imitation of Kirk Reuter and pitch 5-6 good innings and win a lot of games for us. If they pitch to this potential, we don't need much offense to win a lot of games in the playoffs.

Your 2006 Giants: Your Chances Are... Awfully Goood

{Note: I was too busy to cross check - so sorry if these two posts might duplicate stuff or even, god forbid, contradict each other :^). I just want to get them out now, I'll tweak later.}

The Giants, as currently constituted, probably won't make the World Series, though if the pitchers get on a hot streak (Schmidt, Morris, Lowry, Cain) we could ride it to a parade down Market. But they should be good enough to take the NL West, with minimal troubles, as long as Giants players play the way they should be expected to.

Offense Looking' Goood!

Offensively, we are not that far off from 2003-2004. Bonds will be down but I think Winn and Alou is an big improvement over Grissom/Tucker-Cruz. Vizquel is better than Neifi in offense and defense, still, plus more speed. Durham is better if he can stay healthy for the season, like he did in 2005 because for those seasons, he was Durham/Neifi for the most part, with too much Neifi in there, but at worse it will be a push there, unless Durham pushes his injuries to new highs. Matheny was a bigger contributor on offense than thought, and if he can do what he did in 2005 - which admittedly seems to be not likely - he would contribute surprisingly as much offense as Santiago in 2003 or Pierzitski in 2004.

The biggest drop will be at 1B/3B because Alfonzo was productive there and Snow/Gallaraga/Feliz was also. We have Niekro at 1B, which kills our offense vs. RHP, though Sweeney will help mitigate that a little, but Sabean's plans right now is for Niekro to play full-time; luckily Niekro has looked sharp against RHP this spring. And Feliz won't get on base enough to make up the difference between him and Alfonzo in terms of HR power. But the gains at other positions should keep the offense in the same ballpark though it should be weaker overall relative to 2003-4.

Starting Rotation Looking Better!

I like our rotation now with Schmidt, Morris, Lowry, Cain, and Wright, I like it a lot. We live with risks here, Schmidt and Morris in terms of injury and potential age related declines, Lowry and Cain in terms of youthful inconsistency, and Wright in terms of can he pitch well. But we have some good odds for a huge reward if Schmidt, Morris, Lowry, and Cain can consistently pitch dominatingly. Plus if Wright can pitch as well for the Giants as he has in the past on the road, his two horrible hitter's park homes before killed his overall pitching stats - his road numbers have been one whole run better than Tomko's for their careers. A sub-5 ERA is adequate for a #5 starter - we survived Ryan Jensen's mid-4's in 2002 and Foppert/Moss's high 4/low 5 in 2003 to win a lot of games both seasons.

In addition, we have good depth this season, with Correia in line to start should any of the starters need to skip a start and Hennessey as first runner up should the need for another starter arise. In addition, despite all the talk about Valdez being a reliever or closer, the Giants vision for Merkin is that he can fill one of three roles on the team - including closer, he can also be a good setup man or a starter as well - and his role will depend on the needs of the big club. So if they need a starter, they will have no problem slotting him into that spot, and same for a relief role. And even if he relieves to start his career, he could always switch back to starting if the Giants need another starter.

Bullpen Overflowing Cup

The bullpen is pretty good overall with Benitez, Worrell, Kline, Walker, Munter, Fassero, and it sounds like Correia might make the team as a long reliever/spot starter, taking over from Fassero who didn't really do that well in that job, whereas he was superb in relief. Even if Benitez craps out, I think Worrell will do a passable job during the season, which is all we will need, just like 2003

Bench Depth Much Stronger and Deeper

With Finley hopefully doing a good enough impersonation of his pre-2005 career numbers, the bench looks to be much improved. He will man CF when any of the outfielders need a rest, with Ellison coming in when Finley needs a rest or when Alou decides the game is safe enough to take Bonds out of the game for a defensive replacement. Sweeney might see a few games in the outfield, but he will mainly play 1B and be our pinch-hitter extraordinaire, he has led the league in pinch hits in recent years. With both lefties on the bench, the Giants will be better able to mount good rallies against RHP, either forcing him out to bring in a lefty or the hitter will get a hitting advanctage.

Plus Vizcaino will allow Felipe to rest Vizquel without a huge drop in offense and defense plus he will most probably see a lot of games at 2B since Durham will probably miss around 40 games again, which, however, will kill me. He is also the main backup at 3B, but hopefully Feliz would have conditioned himself to play a full season since he has know since the end of the season that he will be the starter, so hopefully Vizcaino won't see many games there. Plus if either Durham or Feliz miss a significant number of games via the DL, I expect Frandsen to be brought up to take their place as starter.

In the Mild Mild NL West, the One Eyed Giants Are Kings

I've feeling pretty good about the team but again it all depends on the injury bug - if the injury gods bless us, we're probably the team to beat in the NL West, if injuries nag us, then we're probably around .500 again. Same could be said about the Dodgers, except their names are Garciaparra, Drew, Penny, Gagme, and even Kent, he's getting old as well, he can't pull wheelies like he once could. I think Bonds and Schmidt will return to "normal" this season, except Bonds looks to play only 100-120 games, like most 40 year olds do, the body just can't take it anymore on a daily grind.

I think Morris is a good addition, less on the co-ace aspect, more on the approach and leadership aspect, I think he can pass on things to the younger pitchers coming up, he's "been there" in that he was a fireballer but his arm couldn't take it so he's more of a finesse pitcher now but has incredible control, which, if Cain could ever duplicate, would make him perfect for replacing Schmidt, and the point has been made over and over again is how Cain is a sponge and actively trying to learn more and more. He's like Livan in that he will push the other pitchers but he's got maturity and balls, unlike Livan. In addition, I think he will excel pitching in AT&T Mays Field, his main problem pitching is giving up the long-ball and the park has historically dampened the power of left-handed hitters not named Barry Lamar Bonds.

With the addition of Jamey Wright into the mix, I'm pretty confident that the pitching rotation will be good in 2006 with Schmidt, Morris, Lowry, Cain, and the #5. People are really concerned about the #5 but I think the more important thing, as I have written ad infinitem, is that we need someone to step up if we lose Schmidt after this season. Hopefully Lowry or Cain, with Hennessey as the dark horse, can rise up to take Schmidt's place, then we only need Wright or Hennessey or Correia to step up and take over the #4-5 spot in 2007. And if we can keep Schmidt - somehow - then the rotation will be that much more stronger and we will either have depth or a pitcher we can trade to fill other needs.

The lineup looks good - Winn, Vizquel, Durham, Bonds, Alou, Feliz, Niekro, Matheny - with most batters hitting where their strengths will be maximized relative to the league. What most prognosticators miss is that we will have Winn for the full season. And he is a better hitter overall than Grissom ever was, and Grissom was a good addition to the team in 2003 and 2004. In addition Vizquel is as good as Aurilia or Neifi was in 2003 and 2004. Amazingly enough, even Matheny was as good as Santiago or Piezitski was in 2003 and 2004, looking at Win Shares and Runs Created.

Obviously, we lose some at 3B with Feliz vs. Alfonzo's 2003 and 2004, and even 2005 was not that much better, and, until he proves otherwise, Niekro will be a huge downgrade offensively at 1B from Snow. And obviously Bonds isn't playing as many games as he did in 2003 and 2004, but with Alou in RF vs. Cruz Jr/Tucker in 2003 and 2004, I would think that things would even out there. So overall, the starting lineup, while a downgrade on a one-to-one basis vs. 2003 and 2004, it is not a severe downgrade given the additions of Winn and Alou.

It is the bench were the offense probably evens out with 2003 and 2004. The bench looks very good with Finley, Sweeney, Vizcaino, Greene, and Ellison (last I heard, I've been obviously busy). The bench looks especially strong given that we will frequently see a lineup that doesn't look like the above, it will have one of the bench players in there for a resting or injured player, especially if Finley can return anywhere close to his career norms. In addition, Sweeney has been a pinch-hitter extraordinaire the past few years, which is something we have needed for a while, and would be extremely useful in the playoffs.

The bullpen is, if not the strength of the team, definitely the depth, with Benitez, Worrell, Kline, Walker, Fassero for sure, then some mix of Munter, Taschner, Accardo, and of course, Valdez, with Wilson and Bateman potentially ready to come up soon, depending on how they do at the start of the minor league season.

So overall, I think the team is in good shape to compete for the playoffs. Whether we have it for going beyond the first round will depend on how players trend (old or young) during the season. Durham - injury again? Vizquel - fade after first month again? Winn - still superman or back to normal? If he's superman, we have a killer offense. Bonds - anything and everything? Alou - injury again? Feliz - fade like 2005 or flourish back at 3B? Niekro - fade like 2005 or injury or hit poorly vs. RHP or maybe he can beat all that? Matheny - Matheny rules at AT&T again? Finley - 2004 or 2005 Finley? Schmidt - confused still or back to norm or new norm that's still very good? Morris - which is the real Morris, the dominating first half or the sad sack second half, and will he not be injured? Lowry - 1st half 2005 or 2nd half 2005? Cain - real deal or growing pains? Benitez - back or not? Worrell - back or not? Kline - back or not? Fassero - continue top notch relief or finally show his age? Walker - what is he, what can he do? Rookies - continue to do well or regress to mean?

If we get positive answers for most of these, particularly Bonds, Winn, Schmidt, and Cain, then we could go all the way and win the World Series, I think, but it will take a heck of a lot of fortunate circumstances, starting with players staying healthy. At minimum, they should be competitive for the divisional title. And I expect them to win the division as I don't believe we need a lot of good overachievers in order to do that, if everyone performs to expectations, as I've discussed for a number of players in previous posts. And if we get overachievers, we'll probably run away with it and get a good head of steam going into the playoffs. And once in there, I think our depth and quality, across the position players and the pitching staff, will help them advance to the World Series. And if the starting rotation overachieves as I have noted before, then we have a good chance to pull out the World Series.

Go Giants!