Your 2026 Giants: Bryce Eldridge Breakout Season

I've been providing an analysis of Bryce Eldridge's progress this season.  This is the final post covering his season, which has been a marvelous breakout season.  The seasonal highlights include (from Baseball Refrence and Fangraphs):

• 2.1 bWAR/1.8fWAR
• .269/.364/.461/.825
• 50 runs and 57 RBI
• 23 doubles and 17 HR
• 59 walks vs 119 strikeouts in 448 PA/386 AB in 107 games
• 131 wRC+

Per Grant Brisbee of The Athletic, when a 21 YO player walks at least 50 times and hits at least 15 homers, many of them became very good baseball players.  Of course, each player is individual, but players who have accomplished a lot at such a young age tends to get even better with MLB experience.  

Think Will the Thrill, who only hit 11 homers in his first season (old man at age 22), and 35 homers in his second.  He wasn’t on the list, but these were:  Mays, Mantle, Williams, Kaline, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Trout, Frank Robinson, Mel Ott, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr, Giancarlo Stanton.  It’s not a full list, but a very impressive list, though there were still many who were not as good, who were not as well known.  Will Bryce be among the greats or the also rans?  Will be interesting to watch, lots of memories either way.

ogc thoughts

Good Seasonal Rates

This is the rough seasonal rate based on his overall stats:

• 3.6 bWAR/2.7 fWAR (where 2.0 WAR is considered an average MLB player)
• .269/.364/.461/.825 (which would have been ranked for 18th in the majors had he qualified)
• 75 runs and 85 RBI
• 44 doubles and 25 HR
• 89 walks vs 179 strikeouts in 672 PA/579 AB in 161 games
• 131 wRC+ (which would have ranked tied for 19th in the majors had he qualified; Devers was 14th)

The following is how he produced after his initial few games where he was lost and trying to find his footing.  I view this as his possible production over a full year, now that he’s more established, and adjusting to major league pitching:

• He played in 99 games, 423 PA/386 AB
• .285/.375/.478/.853 (which would have been ranked for 11th in the majors; Devers was 9th)
• 49 runs and 56 RBI
• 23 doubles and 16 HR
• 56 walks vs 110 strikeouts (14% walk rate and 0.51 walks to strikeouts ratio; where good hitters are at 10%+ and greater than 0.50 BB/K ratio)

This is where I think people are missing out on Eldridge. They look at the good hitters, but don’t recognize when there is a learning curve period where there is a before he adjusts to major league pitching and an after he adjusts. They viewed it as a random process, when there’s a clear learning period.  

Top 10 Hitters in Lineup

And if this is the baseline for Eldridge going into 2027, that means that the Giants have essentially two of the Top 10 (per OPS) in the heart of their lineup (they were 9th and 11th).  And this is why I don’t understand why Giants fans are so upset about Devers. Sure, the back end of the contract is likely to be bad, but meanwhile, we could have two of the best hitters in the majors hitting for us, and likely for the next 3 seasons.

And that offense can be good.  From May 18th, when Eldridge started playing regularly without frequent DNP,  to when he was put on the IL, September 16th, the Giants averaged 4.57 runs scored per game, which is a significant improvement over last season, 4.35 RS.  However, it is still slightly lower than average, which was 4.61 RS in the NL.  

But that RS was held back because two middle lineup hitters, Adames and Chapman weren’t hitting what they did in 2025, and close to the MLB average. Both should be healthy in 2027, and hit closer to what they did in 2024.  Hopefully, with both healthy, that should put the lineup above average.  

Leadoff Improvement with Gilbert

Secondly, and I think more importantly, the leadoff hitter was totally below average, .296 OPS for the season.  And it should improve greatly in 2027 because Drew Gilbert was the only one at leadoff who was elite at getting on base, as he had a .378 OBP.  Vitello tried many players at leadoff, with seven getting at least 10 starts, and five with at least 17 starts, and two over 30 starts, and only Gilbert was good at it, with the next best being Arraez, at .313 OBP.  That really hurt the offense.

Gilbert, like Eldridge, struggled at first before figuring out things.  For roughly his first month, he wasn’t hitting all that well, not getting on base that well.  But from his low OBP point (starting May 20th), Gilbert hit .249/.350/.419/.769 for the rest of the season, 104 games, roughly four months of games.  That’s good for almost any position, and great for a CF.  But he needs a RHH as a platoon partner.

Unfortunately, Cox was among the five, and only had a .301 OBP.  Even more unfortunately, he is the RHH who would be the logical platoon player to pair with Gilbert, who has struggled mightily against LHP.  But that’s still way better than the .143 OBP Gilbert put up against LHP (though only 50 PA, they apparently knew to platoon him).   

Defensive Surprise

Back to Eldridge, it should be noted that he surprised with his defense.  Per StatsCast, he has 2 Fielding Run Value and 0 Outs Above Average.  Which doesn’t seem like much, but in spring training he was sold as a very raw 1B prospect needing a lot of help.  Apparently, Ron Washington can work miracles, as both Arraez and Eldridge had better defensive stats than was expected.  Per these stats, he’s is either average or slightly above average.  Specifically, he’s above average in 1B Receiving, which makes sense because he is super long due to his extreme height.  

Unfortunately, there is not uniform agreement on which defensive stat is best or even correct.  It’s like the old parable of the six blind men touching different parts of the elephant.  And DRS has him at -2 DRS, which is a poor -7 DRS over a full season.  Breaking it down, he was about average in most ways (0), but had bad range, which is understandable because of his extreme height.  Per StatCast, however, his range is average. 

So which is right? Can’t really say, because small sample size effects can change these stats over a full season.  I recall one season Hunter Pence had a really good DRS early in the season, but then it drifted downward to his regular seasonal rate.  And Eldridge only put in roughly one quarter of a season’s worth of starts at 1B.  So we’ll see.

But what the detailed stats say seems to make sense.  He’s abnormally tall, so, of course, his range is not average, in terms of moving around.  But with extra long torso and limbs, he can also reach more balls than other average sized players, both from errant throws, as well as batted balls hit his way.  It will be interesting to see how the Giants chose to split the starting assignments between 1B and DH for Eldridge and Devers.

More importantly, Bryce Eldridge looks to be our long term solution at 1B, both offensively as well as defensively.  He was able to maintain a Top 10 hitter’s performance over roughly four months of games, as well as play okay average defense, when asked, at 1B.