A Giants beat writer thinks that the trade of Bailey signals a rebuild, but not a rebuild in a traditional sense.
ogc thoughts
Generally I agree, but this could have been said many times over the past few years, heck, as far back as when Zaidi took over, as this is what I have been saying here for a long while now, it’s the Giants Way of doing the word that cannot be said by their executives (rebuilding). Zaidi steadfastly avoided that, saying that the goal is playoff competitiveness and Posey took a step forward and said playoffs is the objective.
But the signs have been clear from the beginning of Zaidi’s rebuild, which we are now in year 8 of. This article could have been written at multiple times in the past eight years. And this is year eight because the core leaders of the rebuild are still here: Minasian, Holmes, and Haines. They just have new masters/leaders in Posey (and now also Winn), who saw deficiencies in Zaidi’s leadership that were serious enough to replace him with Posey. And I still see Buster as a placeholder until Minasian is ready.
It Takes A Long Time to Rebuild
It takes a long time to find and develop the prospects necessary to do a proper rebuild. That’s because, not only is it hard to find them, then even when you find them, it still takes many years to develop them and get them ready for the majors, then time for them to figure out the majors. Some players develop very fast, but most players require 4 to 6 years to rise in the minors, reach the majors, and then figure out the majors, then many more years proving that they figured out MLB.
Giants fans in general have not been patient or understanding enough to allow the long gestation period of prospects. I saw that with Sabean (before he hit the jackpot) and I saw it with Zaidi. And I see it now under Posey sometimes. But Sabean was an anomaly who perhaps spoiled the Giants fans by rebuilding twice and doing it quickly: in one offseason the first time, and after four losing seasons the second time. Most teams take a much longer time to rebuild to be playoff competitive again.
And to see this fact, look at how Zaidi is maligned at Giants watering holes while also taking in the fact that the vast majority of prospects in the minors expected to be the Next Generation of Giants were mostly acquired while Zaidi was the leader, meaning that his tenure is majorly responsible for the immediate future of the Giants. The list is long: Roupp, McDonald, Whisenhunt, Cayamo, Martinez, Schmitt, Hernandez, Gonzalez, Level, Davidson, Jordan, and who knows who else will rise up. And one could include Devers, Rodriguez, Tidwell, Gilbert, because they were acquired using players who Zaidi acquired (Harrison and Tibbs) or developed and promoted (Rogers and Doval).
And it’s looking good in the minors, as most are dominating their league. Sabean always liked to have his top prospects learning while winning, and boy, have the Giants minors been winning, they are the Dodgers of the minors right now, except for AAA.
The Rebuild Era has Clear Segments
There have been clear segments of this rebuild. First the nominal “we are competing, no rebuild”. That was when Zaidi took over. He said it loud and clear in his first press conference that the Giants aren't rebuilding, but then the Giants didn't spend on any expensive long term free agents, as they waited for all the expensive veterans' contracts ended. So they weren't rebuilding, but they weren't exactly competitive either, at least not for the playoffs.
Then once the farm system was starting to produce, they started trying to acquire expensive players (starting with Correa) to get veterans to lead the team to .500 and hopefully playoff competitiveness. His failed physical pushed that off to the next offseason, when they signed Chapman and Snell, plus picked up Ray.
(Side note: this is kind of how the Dodgers did it, except instead of waiting out contracts, they took on big contracts to jump start their restocking of their talent pool. I was expecting that under Zaidi, but he never pulled one off, other than that trade with the Angels to get that SS prospect who didn’t reach the majors.)
This is the phase the Giants are still in, waiting for the wave of prospects. To see this, I just have to point out how little they spent fixing up this 2026 team, when they could have signed a top line SP and totally rebuild the bullpen to competitiveness, as well as sign better free agent position players. If they really wanted competitiveness, they would have spent for it.
Especially the bullpen, if their true intention was full commitment to competing, they would not have a bullpen full of question marks, every one of them had major questions, mostly “they’ve never done this before” or “they are good but recovering from surgery”.
Next Wave
It appears to me that they view Eldridge as the front of the next wave of prospects, but not sure yet, so 2026 is still a rebuilding year. Hopefully he and the other top prospects (mostly in the lower minors: Hernandez, Gonzalez, Cayamo, Martinez, Level, but also McDonald, Tidwell, Kilen, Gilbert, Davidson, Bresnahan, Jordan, Harber, and others) continue to progress, especially those in A ball or lower, who hopefully reach AA by next season. Then they might make a push in 2027 (which could be iffy given the likelihood of a lock out).
That’s why the Giants have given up, over the past year, on some of the first wave of prospects (for the most part, Rogers, Doval, Harrison, Tibbs, Luciano, Matos, now Bailey), as they prepare for the next wave percolating in the lower minors, hopefully led by Eldridge. Roupp, Schmitt, Ramos, Birdsong and Whisenhunt are mostly the ones left from this first wave.
And I assume that Adames and Devers are viewed as the veterans leading this next wave of prospects, given the length of their contracts. Chapman likely will age out, and maybe they will take the Longoria route and trade him with money to dump his contract. With Schmitt is hitting so well (and hopefully continue to do so), they could do it between now and the 2027 season.
They might even sign Arraez to a 3-4 year contract, to bridge to when the SS prospects in A ball reaches the majors within 3-4 years, he seems happy here. But what do I know, I thought signing Robbie Ray to an extension before the season was a no-brainer, and instead, he's either becoming a free agent or, with the way this season is going, he could be traded before the trade deadline. If so, Arraez is likely traded too, he's a great hitter and now very good defensive second baseman.
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