Your 2026 Giants: Lineup Roster-bations

I like ZiPS projections for doing analysis for the upcoming season for the Giants.  For about a dozen years, I would collect a variety of projections from sources, and I found that ZiPS generally were in the middle.  Baseball Forecast would often be on the higher side, while Steamer would be on the lower side.  The ZiPS methodology is pretty rock solid as well, as it calculates decile percentile projections, and his reviews of prior year percentile projections find that roughly 50% of players projected beat their 50th percentile projections, and so on, up to 10% beating their 90th percentile and down to 90% beating their 10th percentile projections. No wonder pro teams pay him for consulting services.

Another tool I like is the Lineup Analyzer that Baseball Musings designed based on research from others.  It utilizes the regression analysis of long term batting lineup data that the researcher provided (I was able to confirm the analysis still worked by inputting the NL lineup data and comparing it with the actual, and it was always close back then), to calculate the runs scored by the OBP and SLG of each hitter of the lineup, and after you input a lineup of hitters with their projections for the new season, it can analyze which lineups maximizes the runs scored by this particular lineup.  

That’s how the concept of batting the pitcher 8th came about, as this analysis showed that to maximize runs scored, placing even your worst position player hitter 9th would improve scoring by placing additional runners for the top of the order to drive in.  Tony LaRussa was one MLB manager who took this to heart and batted his pitchers 8th.  

I thought I would take the expected Giants position starters (since there is not much competition there this year), input their projections, and see what the best lineup would be.

ogc thoughts

Here are the projections, which I placed roughly in the order I would have placed them, as Adames has stolen bases before (unfortunately, the analyzer does not take that into account):

#1	Adames	0.322	0.427
#2	Devers	0.356	0.474
#3	Arraez	0.348	0.399
#4	Chapman	0.342	0.450
#5	JH Lee	0.332	0.398
#6	Schmitt	0.312	0.416
#7	Ramos	0.327	0.422
#8	Bader	0.301	0.413
#9	Bailey	0.292	0.351

I chose Schmitt to be the DH because he actually had the highest OPS among the rest of the roster, but I originally had Jerar Encarnacion there because I expected him to win that position, with Schmitt being more of a super utility player, getting starts across the diamond, particularly the infield, but sometimes DH as well.  

Swapping them, however, didn’t change the runs scored much nor the lineup.  Using this tool long ago made me realize that agonizing about the lineup is often futile because when players are pretty similar, the best lineup is still the same, as well as the runs scored. However, choosing the wrong lineup can hurt a lot, as we will soon see.

I didn’t realize until collecting the projections that Arraez had the second highest OBP of the lineup.  I was more aware of his poorer performances of the past two seasons. That explains why the media had been talking about having him lead off, instead of Jung Hoo Lee.  

After plugging in the above stats, and using the model for 1959-2004, I got the following lineup, which would produce roughly 4.676 runs scored, which would have ranked 7th in the NL in 2025, and is above the 4.47 NL average for runs scored and significantly above the 4.35 runs scored by the Giants in 2025:

1. Luis Arraez
2. Rafael Devers
3. Heliot Ramos
4. Wily Adames
5. Matt Chapman
6. Harrison Bader
7. Casey Schmitt
8. Patrick Bailey
9. Jung Hoo Lee

The analyzer illustrates a number of saber concepts about lineups. It confirms that the saber concept of hitting your best hitter second is valid.  The Book also noted the next highest OBP should bat first.  And the fifth best hitter bats third.  Plus the concept of the secondary leadoff hitter by placing Lee 9th, and pushing the worst hitter to eighth.

Oddly, it bats Adames cleanup and Chapman fifth, when I would have thought it would be reversed. Chapman has both higher OBP and SLG, so that’s confusing to me, not sure why this is so.  Looking at the run value for each lineup position, cleanup gives more value for SLG, fifth gives more for OBP.  But this lineup produces roughly 0.01 more runs than having Chapman at cleanup, his superior OBP was a bigger factor batting fifth, apparently.

Also, this shows the potency of this lineup after including Devers in there, vs. how badly it functioned last season before acquiring Devers.  Adding Devers helped to push the lineup above average from below average.

Upside Possibilities

Now I want to look at possible upsides for some of the players:

• Luis Arraez
• Heliot Ramos
• Jung Hoo Lee
• Harrison Bader
• Patrick Bailey

Luis Arraez Upside

His is the most tantalizing of the bunch.  He specifically chose the Giants because he really wants to be a starting second baseman, giving up multi year offers from other teams who wanted him presumably be a DH or 1B.  

Looking over his career, he has actually been more of a super utility player, playing many games at other positions:  3B, SS, 1B, DH, even some OF, as well as 2B.  There is only one season where he played more than 44 games at 2B, and that was in his career year with Miami, in 2023, when he hit a career high batting line of .354/.393/.469/.861, while playing 131 games at 2B, out of 147 games.  That compares with the two seasons since:  .303/.337/.392/.729.  Which is roughly where he is projected, .348 OBP and .399 SLG, or .747 OPS, which still places him at leadoff.  Even if being happy gets him half way, he is then hitting .338/.364/.430/.794 for the season.

Heliot Ramos Upside

As I noted in my prior post, for about a season and a half, Ramos batted around the high 700’s OPS (.792 in 2024, .769 at July 20th, 2025) before he “got into his head” because of a play in the last game of the Toronto series, after which his defense cratered, and eventually his hitting as well.  He ended the season at .729, and projected at .749 OPS.  But he spent many months in 2024 and 2025 in the .800’s and a significant amount of that at or above the mid 800’s.  

Jung Hoo Lee Upside

Jung Hoo Lee is projected at .730 OPS, but in the last three months of 2025, he batted .298/.348/.425/.773 in 68 games.  He was reported as losing 12 pounds during the season, which could not have helped him hit for power.  But when he was sustaining a 200 ISO for the first 6-7 weeks of the season, and if he can hit like he did for the last three months, but around 200 ISO, his OPS would be around 850, which puts him up around where Devers is. 

Harrison Bader Upside

Bader appears to have had a career year last season, after three years of low to mid 600’s OPS (average .644 OPS), hitting .277/.347/.449/.796.  It was enough to boost his projection to .714 OPS.  His defense has been so good that even though he has missed a lot of games over recent seasons, he has still averaged about 1 bWAR, even during his poor hitting years, and produced 3.9 bWAR last season, when he hit well.

While it was a career season, he also hit almost as well in 2021, and produced 4.1 bWAR that season.  So it is not like this was a totally unusual season for him.  He has actually hit that well in four of his nine MLB seasons.  He has hit .756, .779, .785, .796, , So 2025 wasn’t entirely surprising, other than it followed three very poor hitting seasons. 

And, like many a spring training player, he said that he figured out something last season and that’s why he hit so well, and hope to continue to hit this well.  And that could fit the timeline. He had 3 good out of 5 seasons to start his career, and one could argue he was learning in his first season, so that could be viewed as 3 out of 4, ending 2021.  In 2022-23, he missed almost half the games, and one could argue that 2024 was his first season back healthy, and that he fell in bad habits because of his injuries, which he fixed in 2025. Take into account Oracle Park’s tough pitcher’s park, and be around .750 OPS.

Patrick Bailey Upside

Bailey is very tantalizing among these upsides.  He’s not only a gold glove catcher, but arguably the best defensive player in the majors.  If he could only hit, he would be an All-Star MVP candidate.

And the crazy thing is that he has hit. He hit well in his first half of the 2023 and 2024, and he hit well, for the fist time, at the end of the 2025 season. 

• 2023:  33 games, .322/.347/.557/.904, 235 ISO, .410 BABIP
• 2024:  35 games, .300/.357/.473/.830, 173 ISO, .345 BABIP
• 2025:  23 games, .300/.324/.514/.839, 214 ISO, .347 BABIP

And in 9 of his 17 months of playing MLB baseball, he has a BABIP of .327 or higher.  And the saying goes with catcher development is that their hitting solidifies last, because of their focus on the mechanics of good catcher defense.  

Upside in Runs Scored

Now lets take a look at each upside above, player by player:

• Luis Arraez:  if he hits as well as his only season playing 2B, 354/.393/.469/.861, the lineup analyzer estimates a runs scored of 4.862, an increase of 0.186 runs scored (30 extra runs over a full season), and he would still be lead off.
• Heliot Ramos:  if Ramos can revert to his 2024 season, runs scored rises to 4.725, +0.049 runs (8 extra runs)
• Jung Hoo Lee:  if Lee hits as well as he did in the last three months, plus boost ISO to 200, his .298/.348/.498/.946, the lineup would produce 4.821 runs (23 extra runs), and he would bat second, pushing Devers to cleanup.
• Harrison Bader:  if he can hit like in 2018, .334/.422, the lineup scores 4.738 runs, +0.062 runs (10 extra runs)
• Patrick Bailey:  If he hits as well as .300 OBP and .400 SLG, a huge jump from his .287/.340, the lineup runs scored rises to 4.731, +0.055 runs (9 extra runs)

Doesn't seem like much overall.  However, if the defense (pitching and fielding) can maintain the 4.294 runs allowed in 2025, the lineup above would score enough to get the team to 87 wins.  Arraez upside would lead to 90 wins, adding 3 wins.  So would JHL, basically (reaches 89.5 wins). Ramos, Bader, and Bailey upside would lead to an additional win, or 88 wins.   

Accounting for losing 2-3 wins from the bullpen, that gets us to 84-85 wins, plus the upsides above, pushing them towards 90 wins. That's a team that looks very possible to reach the playoffs in 2026.  And this is another way towards seeing how and why the Giants and Posey think that this roster of players can compete for the playoffs in 2026.