The Giants top prospect made the majors in 2025, giving a glimpse into his potential, as well as the things he needs to work on.
ogc thoughts
Bryce Eldridge is an Elite Prospect
I see many Giants fans get down on him because of past power hitting Giants prospects like Rick Lancelloti, Damon Minor, and Todd Linden, and other failed prospects like them. What they don’t understand is that Eldridge is more like Posey and Matt Williams than he is to other power hitting Giants prospects.
Bryce was a Top 12 to 24 ranked player before 2025 season. Posey was Top 7 to 14. Williams (no BA ranking until 1990) reached the majors by age 21 and had his first good season at age 24, while Posey reached the majors by age 22 and had his first good season at 23. Meanwhile, Lancelloti took until age 25 to reach the majors (no rankings yet), Minor took until age 26 (never ranked in Top 100), Linden reached at age 23 (ranked 82nd in 2003).
Eldridge Had a Nice MLB Intro
The thing about his short MLB stint is that it could have been easily totally different, because of the small sample size. His batting line was not very good, but he also hit two fly ball outs deep to center field that would have been homers in many other parks, and both would have been homers in SF.
Had he connected in SF, his batting line would have gone from .107/.297/.179/.476 to .179/.351/.464/.815, which is good at any age, and especially at 20 YO for the season. And that aligns with his estimated .191/.363/.531/.894 that StatCast projected based on his batted balls. He suffered from a lot of bad luck in his short MLB stint.
Need to Fix Strikeouts
However, his biggest red flag is obvious: his high strikeouts rate. In 37 Plate Appearances, he had 13 strikeouts, a 35% strikeout rate, which is mostly doable if he had actually hit at least two homers. And, especially with his 7 walks, this gives him a BB/SO ratio above 50%, which you want to see out of good hitters (best hitters are above 100%).
However, this high strikeout rate means that his contact rate, in a SSS of 28 AB, works out to a horrendous 54% contact rate. The best hitters are above 85% contact rate, and most major leaguers are above 75%. To get this up to 75%, for example, he would need to get the strikeouts down to 7 total in 28 AB, almost halving the 13 he did record. That is a lot more work he needs to do to get himself down that low.
2026 Season
I started with Bailey because the key to the 2026 season being much better, playoff better (at least 5 wins better, if not more), is if young players take leaps in production. Bailey entering his prime physical years, plus him hitting well isn’t outrageous, just not consistent, make him a prime candidate to add a couple of wins to the team, if he can consistently hit over .700 OPS. Eldridge is another strong possibility for a jump in wins, depending on when he can force his way onto the 26-man roster.
The Giants, despite having Devers for half a season, playing both 1B and DH, they ended up below average at both positions, -2.0 WAA at 1B, -0.7 WAA at DH.
First base was so bad because Wade was so bad a hitter until he was traded (.494 OPS), plus Devers was pretty bad himself when playing 1B (.595 OPS). That was also roughly what Schmitt hit, and Dom Smith did not get above .700 OPS either.
And Devers and Flores got most of the DH starts, but Devers .928 OPS was pushed down tremendously by Flores .674 OPS (and more AB) plus most of the remaining DHers didn’t reach .600 OPS. Only Matos and Smith hit over .700 OPS (both were over .900 OPS in limited AB’s). The Giants really need to play Devers at DH: he batted .915 OPS as DH, .595 as 1B, plus less injury risk since he would not be fielding.
Eldridge at First?
Devers will probably split time at 1B and DH with Eldridge, once Bryce makes the major, but until Bryce makes the majors, Devers is likely mostly playing 1B, and moving to DH probably against LHP, to allow Schmitt to get AB there. In any case, he’ll produce around 4.0 bWAR, which I’ll put in DH, boosting the 2026 Giants over the 2025 Giants by roughly 1.0-1.5 bWAR. Which leaves a very low bar for Eldridge and whoever shares 1B with Devers initially to beat: -2.0 WAA, or roughly 0.0 bWAR, which is replacement level.
Eldridge, as I showed above, actually hit okay, based on his StatCast estimates. The Brewers were roughly around 0 WAA, and between Vaughn and Hoskins, they hit in the high 700’s OPS. So if he can get good enough defensively to field 1B like those two veterans, and hit roughly the same, even a 0 WAA is a two win improvement over 2025. This feels doable, as an upper range, based on his StatCast estimates, and even -1 WAA is still a one win improvement over 2025.
Given this thought experiment, I think the Giants are not going to let Eldridge have any or much time in the minors. They brought him up this season to see how he did. He was not overmatched, and looked okay defensively, though still needing more work. He was already projected at .700 OPS before the 2025 season. And hit well in AAA and should have been okay in the majors per StatCast, so he should be projected even higher in 2026 in the majors.
They probably will just let him start in the majors, like they did with Belt, and then send him down as necessary to work on things they think he still needs to work on in the minors. That would make him eligible for winning the Giants an extra draft pick if he’s voted Rookie of the Year, plus make Devers the DH, at least initially.
This is why Dom Smith’s agent should steer him away from he Giants. He would just be insurance in case anything happens to Eldridge, and likely wouldn’t get much of a contract offer from the Giants, at that. And even if they keep Dom, he won’t get much playing time, unless Eldridge misses time due to injury. There should be teams where he has more of.an opportunity to play 1B than SF. I would love him back, but I just don’t see how.
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