Wrote most of this up on The Athletic, posting it here, mostly the same, but I added too.
ogc thoughts
This season is a transitional season, much like 2008: more losing than we would like to see, but the youth is taking over the MLB roster. And in transitional seasons, efforts are made to try to win, but not what I would call all in decisions. It is more about hopefully having young prospects rise and make their case to be on the MLB roster for 2025, but also providing veteran support for a playoff competitive team as well. The Giants like to give their young players a competitive team, to keep that edge going.
So you get a mish-mash of moves, some for the future, some for now, some for both. Signing Lee and Hicks, that was for the future, as 2024 is more about them learning their new MLB role, and building hopefully to be full contributors in 2025. Signing Soler was for the now and future, the Giants lineup was actually mostly average last in 2023, except glaringly bad at cleanup, one of the most important spots in the lineup. He only got traded because he could only hit as leadoff, and Lee's our leadoff guy in 2025. Chapman was for now and hopefully the future, hence the weird long term contract with opt outs all over. The Giants are hopefully working out his next deal now. Trading for Ray covered a lot of ground: getting rid of two contracts that was dead from the Giants viewpoint, getting a pitcher with high potential, and possibly having him for two additional seasons. And Murphy and Snell was for the now, to boost our chances in 2024.
Relying on Youth for Starting Pitching
The clearest sign that it was a transitional, not all in season was the decision to rely on the Giant huge inventory of young pitchers waiting for their chance to show that they are major leaguers. With Webb, Snell, Hicks, Harrison, and Winn as the expected starting rotation, with Cobb expected back in May/June, and Ray in July/August, it was clear that barring complete health and high end performance, young prospects would be coming up and getting their chances to show what they can do in the majors.
And it make sense, from an analytics viewpoint. In the offseason, ZiPS projected performances for many Giants prospects. Hicks, Harrison, Winn, Roupp, Whisenhunt, and Black were all projected as above average ERA (low 4's for most, under 4 for Hicks). Then there were many pitchers who around average NL SP ERA: Teng, Hjelle, Jefferies, Howard, Seymour, Small, Birdsong and others. And the only way we know whether any of them are close, is to bring them up and see.
However, Relying On Youth Leads to Ups and Lots of Downs
And with injuries to Snell and Winn, plus poor performances, it opened up the doors. But that's the rub with transitional seasons, while you give your young prospects lots of opportunity to prove themselves in the majors, most of them will fail in their attempts to match their projections, and might not even do well enough to stay on the roster. And given that they are pitchers, many will likely have injuries that prevent them from pitching (though aneurysm, a blood clot, for Beck is a new one for me).
Overall, not bad for the season. Hicks did well initially but tired out quicker than hoped. Harrison reached new heights in IP, but has been erratic after passing his high (and for the complainers, Harrison at 23 YO is doing about as well as Cain and Lincecum in their their first full MLB season). Birdsong was good initially, and still have good stuff, but now the league has adjusted and he needs to counter their adjustments. Miller and Rodriguez has been up and down, but looks like they will be here next season, Bivens look like he'll be a nice 6th starter/reliever for us for a few years. Hjelle looks like he has figured out the majors and will be a contributor. Walker took a big step forward. Only Doval took a step backwards, but that's going to happen to any staff.
And that's the pitching side, the hitting side has had better successes. Ramos looks like he'll be the next big bopper in our lineup, and potentially our next 30+ homerun hitter. Fitzgerald looks like he'll be a good hitting middle infielder (the waiver of Estrada suggests that the Giants will pursue an upgrade at SS, like Kim or Adames, and shift Fitz to 2B). Bailey has proven that his Gold Glove defense is real. McCray is having a nice start to his MLB career, but as we saw with Matos, hot streaks end. Speaking of hot streaks, Bryce Eldridge has been on a heater so white holt that I don't recall any Giants prospect doing at age 19, in the past 20+ seasons, we are not used to great teenage hitters like this in our farm system.
Zaidi Has Earned Another Season
These are all reasons I believe Zaidi has not only earned another season leading the team, but shows that it takes longer time than people think for prospects to develop, Pre-2023, he had no MLB call ups, but now his first draft has Fitzgerald and McCray, his second has Bailey, Harrison, and Schmitt, his fourth has Birdsong and Meckler, who all look like they will have some role on the 2025 Giants.
And I believe he has done enough to have earned 2026 as well, and is well on his way to earning another extension with all the growth this season, and the youth taking over the roster. Especially with what Eldridge is doing so far, it's been barely a year since he turned pro, but he's a special prospect already.
2025 is Lookin' Good
Meanwhile, our 2025 team looks interesting and promising. The lineup is Bailey, Wade, Fitzgerald, FA SS, Chapman (presumably resigned as he wants to stay, and the Giants basically have no choice but to resign, he's been so good), Ramos, Lee, Yaz (unless Matos, McCray or Meckler beat him out), with the DH to be determined, though there are interesting power free agents (Teoscar Hernandez, for example).
The rotation appears to be Webb, Ray, Hicks, Harrison, Birdsong (though at this rate, he'll be competing with Winn, Beck, Black, Whisenhunt, Bivens, Roupp). The bullpen has Walker, Doval, Rogers, Hjelle, Miller, Rodriguez, Roupp, and maybe Bivens. Plus many pushing from the minors.
Also, at this rate, Eldridge could be pushing for the majors by mid-season, and push Wade out, perhaps the next time he's injured.
No comments:
Post a Comment