Reportage:
Baer's released statement (direct from the e-mail I got):
ogc thoughts
I'm excited about the hiring of Farhan Zaidi as the Giants President of Baseball Operations, NextGen leader.
Some background info on Zaidi from Schulman's article:
I fell in love with Farhan after reading this article. He's both a numbers guys as well as a scouting guy. He's had experience with IFA, which is something the Giants have failed for the most part, and reportedly pushed the A's hard to get Cespedes. And with a PhD, plus experience as a consultant after getting his MIT bachelor's degree, shows that he's a very smart guy.
On top of that, he's also a people person, which many of the articles on him points out. That was one key appeal of Bobby Evans, from the articles on him. That is a problem that Sabean had as GM, wanting to cut to the chase (which I totally understand, I'm like that) and not wanting to put up with the BS shooting the breeze with other GM's (I had a great teacher who told me I needed to learn that, and I did).
Quote from Pavlovic's article, from Forst, the A's GM:
There was also some noting that Zaidi might turn down this position because of the Giants current problems or that the Dodgers would not allow it. First off, that would have been hypocrisy of the highest order as the Dodgers stole Ned Colletti, who was Sabean's Zaidi. Also, I saw a tweet from an LA sportswriter that there was no guarantee that Friedman (and thus Zaidi) would get a contract after their 5 year contract ends after 2019, when they expire, so Zaidi was faced with a one year commitment from the Dodgers vs. a 5 year commitment from the Giants. I also noticed from Baggarly that Zaidi's wife, whom he met when he was at UC Berkeley (Go Bears!), is an architect and still does a lot of work up here in the Bay Area, and that Zaidi made sure to make every trip the Dodgers took to SF.
Interesting Commentary
There were some interesting points made in the media and social media, so I thought I would tackle them.
Baggarly mentioned two possibilities for hires by Zaidi, not for GM, though. One is that Evans might return in some capacity. There were a lot of good qualities to Evans, and maybe he can return (technically, he's still contracted to the Giants for 2019) and help with administrative work, particularly if no GM is hired (as discussed in the press conference). The other is Sig Mejdal, the NASA engineer who helped lead the Astros analytics team, who recently quit his job, looking for other opportunities (perhaps one near where he got his degree at UC Davis...). Maybe Zaidi would hire him to run the and lead the upgrade of the analytics department.
Pavlovic noted Zaidi's preference for position flexibility. The Giants like that as well, signing DeRosa long ago, and they have been talking about it for a long while now. They had been named as a team interested in getting Zobrist, and they acquired both Nunez and been trying to do that with Hanson and Sandoval last season. It appears that he's taking things to their logical conclusions, and I am for that totally, he has had more success doing that than the Giants, but it is not like this is a foreign concept to the Giants and Sabean.
Pavlovic noted that Zaidi was focused relentlessly at filling up the back half of the 40-man roster. Again, this is not a foreign concept to the Giants. They added players like Uribe, Torres, Casilla, Blanco, Petit, Holland over the years. Again, he has been more successful at tit, though I would note again, for those complaining about the Giants 2018 season, that NO team can cover for nearly their entire lineup being out on the DL for extended periods (Posey, Belt, Longoria, Duggar, Williamson, Pence, plus Crawford should have been DLed, but they had no viable replacement).
Pavlovic noted that Zaidi liked to be aggressive with promoting prospects. This is an area that the Giants have been Jeckyll and Hyde on: they were aggressive with their best prospects, Cain, Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner, and sometimes with lesser names like Duffy, Panik, a variety of pitchers, like Jonathan Sanchez, but then they were slow with guys like Schierholtz and Ishikawa. The reports iarethat Zaidi builds models governing drafting and
Pavlovic said that Zaidi's one shortcoming was bullpen construction. That's been a strength of the Sabean/Tidrow era, finding reliever gold from other teams' cast offs, from Eyre to Casilla to Petit to Strickland to Dyson. And Bochy has generally been good about his management of the bullpen during his career.
Pavlovic stated that his MLB sources said that Zaidi does not like massive long-term commitments. This is good news. I've never been a fan of the giant long-term contracts the Giants have been giving out, but in this game, you can't win it all without playing the free agent game. Kershaw's recent 3 year, $96M, perhaps Zaidi's last act for the Dodgers as GM, would be a great model for signing Bumgarner to a deal, if that is what he wants to do with Bumgarner.
I follow @Darryl_Zero on Twitter (I think he was FLA_Giants, or something like that, on MCC), and he had an interesting take, which I'll excerpt here. His initial reaction is guarded optimism. Zaidi's obviously a very smart guy and he's had a lot of experience (14 years) in the operations side for two very different organizations: A's then Dodgers.
He notes it's impossible to assess what Zaidi did for the two teams because his bosses - Beane and Friedman - were detail (which I read as micro-managers) guys that keep a strong control over their team's direction (I would also note, Zaidi wasn't even GM with the A's) and also known for their analytics as well. As well, the A's weren't all that successful while Zaidi was ther (again, I note that the wasn't even GM) and the Dodgers success with Zaidi was related more to players and prospects that Colletti had already acquired before Friedman took over and to their financial clout, when they massively overspent, which the last CBA took away by adding huge penalties.
He also noted that a huge plus is that he knows the Dodgers inside and out, and thus would be able to use that knowledge in constructing the Giants. This is exactly what Sabean guarded against all through is tenure, letting other teams know the Giants internal business. And like any business, when you have intimate knowledge of a business and then move to a major competitor, that's always imparts an advantage to the new employer. Hence why Sabean likes to keep his kimono closed.
I agree that guarded optimism is the right take (really, any new change requires guarded, in my mind). While one can't find exactly what he was responsible for, that LA Times article does note a number of things that he did, and that excites me. But I agree that much of their current success relates a lot to prospects before, while noting that additions like Taylor and Muncy were boons that I would credit to him and his group and analysis. I agree about the advantage of knowing what the Dodgers are doing, but just to a certain extent, as the Giants are competing with all NL West teams, not just LA.
Owner Preferences
Which gets me here, to what restrictions and guiding principles that Zaidi will be working with as President (apparently he's the Giants first president, which puts him above Sabean, who was only VP of Baseball Operations). There have been rules and restrictions that Sabean has been working under, so I don't see why they won't apply to Zaidi as well. And, given the Times' article note that he loves challenges, well, what bigger challenge would there be than making the 2018 Giants playoff competitive in 2019?
First of all, I doubt that the owners would allow Zaidi to blow up the team for the 2019 season. It is Bochy's last year of his contract, and undoubtedly, Zaidi will want to put his stamp on that position, and thus likely that it's Bochy's last season as Giants skipper, as no offer of extension will be forthcoming. It would not be a very fun last season for Bochy if Zaidi comes in and trade away everything. So for those who expect him to blow it up, I think that they will be disappointed.
In addition, Sabean, from day one as GM, as been given the marching orders: Giants fans only come out for winners, so there can't be any long-term rebuilds (which many fans have been calling for), you, as the leader of the Giants, need to win now, or as soon as possible. I don't believe that the ownership has changed their mind on that edict, and thus I believe Zaidi will be working under the same restrictions: sure, trade Bumgarner if you want, but only if you believe the trade will make the Giants more competitive in 2019. Much like how Sabean was open to trading Cain and Lincecum back in 2008 when Toronto leaked their offer to the press, as long as it made baseball sense.
In addition, the Giants cleared their CBT penalty in order to spend money for 2019. So, clearly, the Giants owners expect their new leader to spend. As I've been saying, signing Bryce Harper is the Magowan/Bonds move of today, so I expect Zaidi to handle that. He might be against long-term contracts, but like any job, there will be exceptions. And he will need to give one to build up the offense to be competitive in 2019, if he wants to give Bochy a nice send-off.
Moreover, the Giants were a .500 team in 2018 until that final month when they basically had a AAA lineup penciled in every game. Also, their pitching rotation had extended periods of sub-3.5 ERA in 2018 that would make them playoff competitive in 2019, if they can be consistently that good. And the bullpen is good, just not great. So they are not that far from winning, but the question is how to get to playoff competitive winning?
Zaidi and the 2019 Season
So, does Zaidi have the intestinal fortitude to keep Bumgarner and build a winner in 2019, when conventional wisdom and fan sentiment is to trade him, and start an extensive rebuild? As I noted, it is not like he does not have a lot of good assets already, people are acting like the Giants final record represents where their current talent level is.
The Giants have the potential for a very good rotation, with all five - Bumgarner, DRod, Suarez, Holland, and Stratton - having long extended periods of sub-3.5 ERA in 2018, can they be consistent enough to do it over a full season? That’s the winning formula of 2009-2012. Add in a Samardzija who is hopefully healthy, and productive, maybe a six-man rotation, maybe he relieves, or at least the team can select from the five and make the sixth long relief.
Plus the bullpen was pretty good itself in 2018. Smith and Watson was a great pair, Melancon was productive though not closing, Moronta and a Black were sensational with their three-digit velocity, with Black needing to work on the HR balls, Okert finally broke through on the potential he showed with his humongous K/BB ratio in the minors, and Adon is opening eyes in AFL with his three digits too. Sign Andrew Miller, and trade Dyson and Strickland, and the Giants bullpen can defend any lead.
So the question is the offense. Harper is the generational FA, much like Bonds was after 1992, and would seem to be the answer, along with health - every starting position player other than Cutch spent time on the DL (or should have), or was unproductive. Plus, Longoria hit nearly 800 OPS on the road, can he do it at ATT? In addition, is Duggar really to start full time (he appears to be)? The offense was basically average during middle of the season, which helped keep them near 500 all season until the lineup resembled a AAA lineup in September, and they lost their way to the tenth pick overall, so some talent is there (and another reason for Farhan to take the job, he gets to pick 10th in 2019 draft).
Can Farhan make the moves to fortify the offense, and build a winner for 2019? Or blow it up? We’ll see what’s up, probably as soon as the winter meetings, as decisions need to be made on arb players on the cusp, like a Dyson, Strickland, Panik (some good hitting, defensive 2B FA available; maybe trade Panik in package of prospects to Yankees for Sonny Gray?).
Zaidi and Beyond
Because of the above, I see 2019 as a transitional year that allows Zaidi to put his ideas into place regarding organization and staffing, while he works at getting the Giants to be playoff competitive in 2019. I'm hopeful that the player finds (like Taylor and Muncy) that he's been involved in at the Dodgers will continue with the Giants. That's like when we found Uribe, Casilla, Torres, Blanco, Petit and others, and helps to boost the core to better results. While it's hard to divide credit on a lot of the success the Dodgers have had, it's also clear that finds like these are more probably related to him, as GM, doing the due diligence necessary to locate these golden nuggets among the pyrites.
I have no idea what exactly he will do that will be different, other than that he would introduce more advanced analytics than before, or rather, his brand of analytics. It's been reported about how he pursued the A's to aggressively get Cespedes, so hopefully he can improve our IFA production. But one success is not proof that his process will lead to other successes. But I'm stoked over how well Forst has spoken about Zaidi, as he didn't really need to do that, given the long rivalry between the A's and the Giants, and that LA Time article was beautiful as well, he just seems to be the right person for the job right now.
Sabean Implications
People have been assuming that replacing Sabean is seen as a repudiation of what he has done, been doing. It could also mean that Zaidi brings in something Sabean don't have, and the Giants get better with the two in hand, just like it got better when Barr joined for 2008.
Furthermore, pretty hard to be a repudiation when he's one of the key people helping to make the selection of the new GM. It looks more like picking his successor who he believes will be able to keep the Giants winning in the future, and believes in the things he believes.
Else, why bother involving Sabean in the selection, if Giants ownership believe that his plans and methods are a failure? Because Sabean will be looking for someone who thinks like he does, and believes in the same things, that's what anyone in his position would be doing, that's human nature.
So Sabean, if anything, helped to pick his successor, who he believes knows baseball as well as he does, and shares similar philosophies about how to win in baseball. And hopefully can take it a step further than he did.
PostScript
Here is a link to his press conference today. Here are some highlights I gleaned:
Second impression is that if you took everything he said, changed it to say that Brian Sabean said them, then showed the transcript to one of the disgruntled Giants fans out there, they are going to be angry. While transcribing every answer Zaidi gave above, I could imagine Sabean saying about 90-95% of them, except, of course, references to being with the A's and Dodgers.
Don't these remind you of Sabean?
After hearing this press conference, I can't think of anything I would change of what I've wrote above. He clearly recognizes that there are good elements of the team (the baby) while noting that injuries hurt their 2018 results (bath water). I like that he's saying it's Day One, the knee jerk reaction (which many fans have been doing) is to blow up the roster, and start from scratch. That means that he'll take time to figure out what he has internally, and won't make any rash moves like Preller did when he took over SD (think how great their team would look with Trea Turner still on their roster!). He's pretty much preaching to the choir that is the Giants front office with all that he said about the team in the press conference. Which makes sense, as it was Baer who made the decision, and Sabean who had a big hand in selecting Zaidi.
“We set out to find one of the best minds in baseball and Farhan's many accomplishments and expertise exceeded our expectations. Farhan is widely viewed as one of the top executives in our industry and we are thrilled to have him lead the next chapter of Giants Baseball.”Zaidi's released statement (direct from the e-mail I got):
“I am delighted to return to the Bay Area and to join one of the most storied franchises in the game. I have watched the Giants from afar and I have great respect for the organization's culture and many accomplishments. I am excited about this new opportunity and I'm looking forward to getting right to work.”Also, Baggarly's piece discussed possible implications and questions he will face, as did this Pavlovic article.
ogc thoughts
I'm excited about the hiring of Farhan Zaidi as the Giants President of Baseball Operations, NextGen leader.
Some background info on Zaidi from Schulman's article:
Zaidi is a native of Sudbury, Canada, and the first Muslim to become a general manager. His family is of Pakistani descent. He grew up in the Philippines, where his father, Sadiq, worked as an engineer, and rooted for the Toronto Blue Jays.
He attended MIT and earned an economics degree in 1998, then completed a PhD in behavioral economics from Cal in 2011.
Zaidi was a “Moneyball” acolyte who, like many young executives in baseball today, said he was inspired by reading Michael Lewis’ 2003 book.
One of Zaidi’s first jobs was writing a fantasy-baseball column for The Sporting News.
As he was working on his doctorate, he talked his way into an interview with Billy Beane and Forst — then the A’s GM and assistant GM, respectively — and wowed them enough to earn the job of his dreams.This is a good encapsulation of interesting tidbits of info on Zaidi, similar but expounded on to a larger extent by the article in the LA Times in early 2017 by Andy McCulloch. Must read to understand our new President of Baseball Operations.
I fell in love with Farhan after reading this article. He's both a numbers guys as well as a scouting guy. He's had experience with IFA, which is something the Giants have failed for the most part, and reportedly pushed the A's hard to get Cespedes. And with a PhD, plus experience as a consultant after getting his MIT bachelor's degree, shows that he's a very smart guy.
On top of that, he's also a people person, which many of the articles on him points out. That was one key appeal of Bobby Evans, from the articles on him. That is a problem that Sabean had as GM, wanting to cut to the chase (which I totally understand, I'm like that) and not wanting to put up with the BS shooting the breeze with other GM's (I had a great teacher who told me I needed to learn that, and I did).
Quote from Pavlovic's article, from Forst, the A's GM:
“We originally hired Farhan because of his personality,” Forst said Tuesday. “Not because of his Ph.D. or his analytics chops or whatever. Billy (Beane) and I really liked him.”
“He is someone who fit in well with scouts and always wanted to be out at games with guys, and I’m sure he’s continued to do that with the Dodgers as much as possible,” Forst said. “This is the last guy you would sort of pigeonhole as just an analytics person.”Also from Pavlovic:
With the A’s, Zaidi had his hand in all aspects of player development. He is known for statistical analysis and certainly fits the “next-gen” description that Baer threw out in September, but he's also known as someone who appreciates the scouting side of the game. The Giants still rely on scouting more than most organizations, and finding someone who honored both sides of the coin was an emphasis for Brian Sabean, the former general manager who has served as vice president of baseball operations.
NextGen Leader
I think that Baer's early comments, much to the groans of many Giants fans, of looking for a NextGen leader and that they are going to take their time doing it, speaks to the high probability that Zaidi was probably first on their list, to begin with, as he is most definitely NextGen, and with the Dodgers back in the playoffs, and making the World Series in 2017, likely to continue playing deep into the playoffs. I thought of this the moment I heard that Zaidi was going to be interviewed, once the rumors of that started circulating.
There was also some noting that Zaidi might turn down this position because of the Giants current problems or that the Dodgers would not allow it. First off, that would have been hypocrisy of the highest order as the Dodgers stole Ned Colletti, who was Sabean's Zaidi. Also, I saw a tweet from an LA sportswriter that there was no guarantee that Friedman (and thus Zaidi) would get a contract after their 5 year contract ends after 2019, when they expire, so Zaidi was faced with a one year commitment from the Dodgers vs. a 5 year commitment from the Giants. I also noticed from Baggarly that Zaidi's wife, whom he met when he was at UC Berkeley (Go Bears!), is an architect and still does a lot of work up here in the Bay Area, and that Zaidi made sure to make every trip the Dodgers took to SF.
Interesting Commentary
There were some interesting points made in the media and social media, so I thought I would tackle them.
Baggarly mentioned two possibilities for hires by Zaidi, not for GM, though. One is that Evans might return in some capacity. There were a lot of good qualities to Evans, and maybe he can return (technically, he's still contracted to the Giants for 2019) and help with administrative work, particularly if no GM is hired (as discussed in the press conference). The other is Sig Mejdal, the NASA engineer who helped lead the Astros analytics team, who recently quit his job, looking for other opportunities (perhaps one near where he got his degree at UC Davis...). Maybe Zaidi would hire him to run the and lead the upgrade of the analytics department.
Pavlovic noted Zaidi's preference for position flexibility. The Giants like that as well, signing DeRosa long ago, and they have been talking about it for a long while now. They had been named as a team interested in getting Zobrist, and they acquired both Nunez and been trying to do that with Hanson and Sandoval last season. It appears that he's taking things to their logical conclusions, and I am for that totally, he has had more success doing that than the Giants, but it is not like this is a foreign concept to the Giants and Sabean.
Pavlovic noted that Zaidi was focused relentlessly at filling up the back half of the 40-man roster. Again, this is not a foreign concept to the Giants. They added players like Uribe, Torres, Casilla, Blanco, Petit, Holland over the years. Again, he has been more successful at tit, though I would note again, for those complaining about the Giants 2018 season, that NO team can cover for nearly their entire lineup being out on the DL for extended periods (Posey, Belt, Longoria, Duggar, Williamson, Pence, plus Crawford should have been DLed, but they had no viable replacement).
Pavlovic noted that Zaidi liked to be aggressive with promoting prospects. This is an area that the Giants have been Jeckyll and Hyde on: they were aggressive with their best prospects, Cain, Lincecum, Posey, Bumgarner, and sometimes with lesser names like Duffy, Panik, a variety of pitchers, like Jonathan Sanchez, but then they were slow with guys like Schierholtz and Ishikawa. The reports iarethat Zaidi builds models governing drafting and
Pavlovic said that Zaidi's one shortcoming was bullpen construction. That's been a strength of the Sabean/Tidrow era, finding reliever gold from other teams' cast offs, from Eyre to Casilla to Petit to Strickland to Dyson. And Bochy has generally been good about his management of the bullpen during his career.
Pavlovic stated that his MLB sources said that Zaidi does not like massive long-term commitments. This is good news. I've never been a fan of the giant long-term contracts the Giants have been giving out, but in this game, you can't win it all without playing the free agent game. Kershaw's recent 3 year, $96M, perhaps Zaidi's last act for the Dodgers as GM, would be a great model for signing Bumgarner to a deal, if that is what he wants to do with Bumgarner.
I follow @Darryl_Zero on Twitter (I think he was FLA_Giants, or something like that, on MCC), and he had an interesting take, which I'll excerpt here. His initial reaction is guarded optimism. Zaidi's obviously a very smart guy and he's had a lot of experience (14 years) in the operations side for two very different organizations: A's then Dodgers.
He notes it's impossible to assess what Zaidi did for the two teams because his bosses - Beane and Friedman - were detail (which I read as micro-managers) guys that keep a strong control over their team's direction (I would also note, Zaidi wasn't even GM with the A's) and also known for their analytics as well. As well, the A's weren't all that successful while Zaidi was ther (again, I note that the wasn't even GM) and the Dodgers success with Zaidi was related more to players and prospects that Colletti had already acquired before Friedman took over and to their financial clout, when they massively overspent, which the last CBA took away by adding huge penalties.
He also noted that a huge plus is that he knows the Dodgers inside and out, and thus would be able to use that knowledge in constructing the Giants. This is exactly what Sabean guarded against all through is tenure, letting other teams know the Giants internal business. And like any business, when you have intimate knowledge of a business and then move to a major competitor, that's always imparts an advantage to the new employer. Hence why Sabean likes to keep his kimono closed.
I agree that guarded optimism is the right take (really, any new change requires guarded, in my mind). While one can't find exactly what he was responsible for, that LA Times article does note a number of things that he did, and that excites me. But I agree that much of their current success relates a lot to prospects before, while noting that additions like Taylor and Muncy were boons that I would credit to him and his group and analysis. I agree about the advantage of knowing what the Dodgers are doing, but just to a certain extent, as the Giants are competing with all NL West teams, not just LA.
Owner Preferences
Which gets me here, to what restrictions and guiding principles that Zaidi will be working with as President (apparently he's the Giants first president, which puts him above Sabean, who was only VP of Baseball Operations). There have been rules and restrictions that Sabean has been working under, so I don't see why they won't apply to Zaidi as well. And, given the Times' article note that he loves challenges, well, what bigger challenge would there be than making the 2018 Giants playoff competitive in 2019?
First of all, I doubt that the owners would allow Zaidi to blow up the team for the 2019 season. It is Bochy's last year of his contract, and undoubtedly, Zaidi will want to put his stamp on that position, and thus likely that it's Bochy's last season as Giants skipper, as no offer of extension will be forthcoming. It would not be a very fun last season for Bochy if Zaidi comes in and trade away everything. So for those who expect him to blow it up, I think that they will be disappointed.
In addition, Sabean, from day one as GM, as been given the marching orders: Giants fans only come out for winners, so there can't be any long-term rebuilds (which many fans have been calling for), you, as the leader of the Giants, need to win now, or as soon as possible. I don't believe that the ownership has changed their mind on that edict, and thus I believe Zaidi will be working under the same restrictions: sure, trade Bumgarner if you want, but only if you believe the trade will make the Giants more competitive in 2019. Much like how Sabean was open to trading Cain and Lincecum back in 2008 when Toronto leaked their offer to the press, as long as it made baseball sense.
In addition, the Giants cleared their CBT penalty in order to spend money for 2019. So, clearly, the Giants owners expect their new leader to spend. As I've been saying, signing Bryce Harper is the Magowan/Bonds move of today, so I expect Zaidi to handle that. He might be against long-term contracts, but like any job, there will be exceptions. And he will need to give one to build up the offense to be competitive in 2019, if he wants to give Bochy a nice send-off.
Moreover, the Giants were a .500 team in 2018 until that final month when they basically had a AAA lineup penciled in every game. Also, their pitching rotation had extended periods of sub-3.5 ERA in 2018 that would make them playoff competitive in 2019, if they can be consistently that good. And the bullpen is good, just not great. So they are not that far from winning, but the question is how to get to playoff competitive winning?
Zaidi and the 2019 Season
So, does Zaidi have the intestinal fortitude to keep Bumgarner and build a winner in 2019, when conventional wisdom and fan sentiment is to trade him, and start an extensive rebuild? As I noted, it is not like he does not have a lot of good assets already, people are acting like the Giants final record represents where their current talent level is.
The Giants have the potential for a very good rotation, with all five - Bumgarner, DRod, Suarez, Holland, and Stratton - having long extended periods of sub-3.5 ERA in 2018, can they be consistent enough to do it over a full season? That’s the winning formula of 2009-2012. Add in a Samardzija who is hopefully healthy, and productive, maybe a six-man rotation, maybe he relieves, or at least the team can select from the five and make the sixth long relief.
Plus the bullpen was pretty good itself in 2018. Smith and Watson was a great pair, Melancon was productive though not closing, Moronta and a Black were sensational with their three-digit velocity, with Black needing to work on the HR balls, Okert finally broke through on the potential he showed with his humongous K/BB ratio in the minors, and Adon is opening eyes in AFL with his three digits too. Sign Andrew Miller, and trade Dyson and Strickland, and the Giants bullpen can defend any lead.
So the question is the offense. Harper is the generational FA, much like Bonds was after 1992, and would seem to be the answer, along with health - every starting position player other than Cutch spent time on the DL (or should have), or was unproductive. Plus, Longoria hit nearly 800 OPS on the road, can he do it at ATT? In addition, is Duggar really to start full time (he appears to be)? The offense was basically average during middle of the season, which helped keep them near 500 all season until the lineup resembled a AAA lineup in September, and they lost their way to the tenth pick overall, so some talent is there (and another reason for Farhan to take the job, he gets to pick 10th in 2019 draft).
Can Farhan make the moves to fortify the offense, and build a winner for 2019? Or blow it up? We’ll see what’s up, probably as soon as the winter meetings, as decisions need to be made on arb players on the cusp, like a Dyson, Strickland, Panik (some good hitting, defensive 2B FA available; maybe trade Panik in package of prospects to Yankees for Sonny Gray?).
Zaidi and Beyond
Because of the above, I see 2019 as a transitional year that allows Zaidi to put his ideas into place regarding organization and staffing, while he works at getting the Giants to be playoff competitive in 2019. I'm hopeful that the player finds (like Taylor and Muncy) that he's been involved in at the Dodgers will continue with the Giants. That's like when we found Uribe, Casilla, Torres, Blanco, Petit and others, and helps to boost the core to better results. While it's hard to divide credit on a lot of the success the Dodgers have had, it's also clear that finds like these are more probably related to him, as GM, doing the due diligence necessary to locate these golden nuggets among the pyrites.
I have no idea what exactly he will do that will be different, other than that he would introduce more advanced analytics than before, or rather, his brand of analytics. It's been reported about how he pursued the A's to aggressively get Cespedes, so hopefully he can improve our IFA production. But one success is not proof that his process will lead to other successes. But I'm stoked over how well Forst has spoken about Zaidi, as he didn't really need to do that, given the long rivalry between the A's and the Giants, and that LA Time article was beautiful as well, he just seems to be the right person for the job right now.
Sabean Implications
People have been assuming that replacing Sabean is seen as a repudiation of what he has done, been doing. It could also mean that Zaidi brings in something Sabean don't have, and the Giants get better with the two in hand, just like it got better when Barr joined for 2008.
Furthermore, pretty hard to be a repudiation when he's one of the key people helping to make the selection of the new GM. It looks more like picking his successor who he believes will be able to keep the Giants winning in the future, and believes in the things he believes.
Else, why bother involving Sabean in the selection, if Giants ownership believe that his plans and methods are a failure? Because Sabean will be looking for someone who thinks like he does, and believes in the same things, that's what anyone in his position would be doing, that's human nature.
So Sabean, if anything, helped to pick his successor, who he believes knows baseball as well as he does, and shares similar philosophies about how to win in baseball. And hopefully can take it a step further than he did.
PostScript
Here is a link to his press conference today. Here are some highlights I gleaned:
- Sabean has provided 26 years of leaderhip, and he'll be still around, going forward. Farhan said he looks forward to talking with Brian going forward.
- Interview was supposed to last two hours, ended up six hours
- Super competitive
- Values-based leadership/management
- Acknowledged how important the Bay Area is to him and his wife
- First MLB game: August 10, 1987 Candlestick, Candy Maldonado and Will Clark back to back, walk-off
- Humble and Process
- Rebuilding different in MLB vs. other sports: others, win lottery QB/Jordan; but MLB baseball is all about the 25-man roster. That requires hard work and humility, focused on one good move after another
- Q: Hank: win now, retool, rebuild?
- Playing meaningful games energizing for players and fans, want ASAP and deep
- Khris Davis/A's: example of understated move for arb player, that pays off big
- Cast wide net, no labels on the process other than to better the team
- Q: Connect with Bochy?
- Yes, had good conversation, look forward to working with him, talk/learn
- Q: Kawakami: Bumgarner trade?
- It is Day One for him, everything on table going forward, opinions vary widely
- Q: Barber: Untouchables?
- Absorbing right now, it was great talking with Brian about roster
- Collaborative process: no one person, need inputs from different people, consensus
- Goal is max flexibility, don't want to miss opportunities, no matter how small, to improve
- No restrictions from above on what he can do
- Q: Baggarly: Continuity key to Giants, thoughts on GM and Farm Director?
- Ideally, fill positions ASAP, but harder to get permissions now, wish had more time
- Need to move as quickly as possible, talk with Baer for his feedback on other interviews
- Farm Director: less luxury of time, internal fill possible and fine if necessary into next year
- Q: Ostler: New School vs. Old School: conflict, clash in strategy?
- See that narrative out there, but don't see it happening with Giants
- Can learn from Bochy, and he can bring things to table as well
- Goal is not for him to manage the team, manager is empowered to make decisions on lineups, SP, bullpen, that's the manager's purview, while roster is front office's
- Collaboration is key, though
- Q: Murphy: Big Picture: A's to Dodger's to Giants
- Family and Friends have to change wardrobe again
- Affinity for area, loved walking from Union Square to AT&T, made sure to make the Dodger's trips up to SF so he can visit
- Love the diversity of the fan base, sense of identity, Giants are special, which he admired
- Q: Ratto: Preconceptions T/F, rethinking after join Giants
- Try not to operate like that, but aware of it
- Respect for 3 in 5
- Flexibility is key: they have been roadmapping out the next few years
- Q: Dodgers Losing the Last Two years
- Total heartbreak
- Narrative is that Dodgers was thwarted by analytics, but then Red Sox Dombrowski just said that he's upping their analytics
- Q: Bach: Knowledge of Giants roster, what is he looking for?
- Lot of familiarity since he was with Dodgers
- That said, now that's he's internal front office, requires different level of knowledge
- Last week: reviewed financials, contracts, depth charts, reinforcement areas, lineups, rotations
- But still Day One: he wants opinions from Brian and rest of his group in baseball operations, and he respects the players here
- Q: Spander: What did he learn from A's and Dodgers?
- Player acquisition: no move is too small, put in the effort and detail into waivers, minor free agents, throw-in players in trades
- Talent identification is key: many ways to do this, strong scouting, strong analytics, best of everything
- Takes a special level of diligence, no stone unturned, even if the player is not a headline player, he could be good later
- Q: Hank: For GM and Farm Director, how important, could there be a wait?
- Wait is possible but not ideal, goal is to find and hire
- There is a lot of work to do, and he appreciates the value of having people like what he did in LA
- Function of process, they'll be hired when they are identified and hired
- Q: Hank: How important is reported five years contract, is that the longest?
- Baer: thinks 5-6 years given to Brian before
- Farhan is working on the blueprint, cognizant of the record the last two years, want to change as soon as possible
- Five years looked right, in the art of the possible, but if one year, great
- Industry is evolving: IFA, analytics; so the top 2 model seems to be the prevalent best practices right now
- Q: Nevius: Build roster to fit ballpark?
- This is a topic of conversation he had with Brian Sabean
- It's important to create every advantage at home, but have to be aware 81 road games too
- Baseball has the least pervasive home advantage in sports, so want to create as much advantage as possible
- Q: Crowley: re: commend about meaningful baseball, how important is it to redo roster?
- 2018: Giants played competitive baseball, until injuries
- Next season: better health, improved youth, could yield improvements
- Don't want to throw the baby out with the bath water
- Don't want to over index too much on the injuries
- Need to think through thoroughly
- Q: Kuerger: (nothing question... sigh...) get phone calls from other GM's about trades yet?
- Pirahnas are out (ha ha)
- Look forward to meeting and discussing
- Shelley and Goldfarb (assistant GM's) are in Carlsbad now for GM meetings, they are holding the fort, and he'll be joining them soon
- Q: Dickinson: Roster, what do you like, what do you change?
- #1: importance of selfless play, team first culture, this is a differentiator, competitive advantage
- Today's era is that of showcase culture, individual vs. team
- 95% of time, player and team goals aligned
- However, need to move runner along sometimes, or to take more pitches in order to tire out the opposing pitcher, team helping moves
- Looking for youth and athleticism, in addition to selfless: ideal combo
- Bullpen is a great strength, starting rotation might need reinforcement, however
- The Farm has some terrific young arms, looking forward to learning where they are, what their time tables are
Second impression is that if you took everything he said, changed it to say that Brian Sabean said them, then showed the transcript to one of the disgruntled Giants fans out there, they are going to be angry. While transcribing every answer Zaidi gave above, I could imagine Sabean saying about 90-95% of them, except, of course, references to being with the A's and Dodgers.
Don't these remind you of Sabean?
Humbling. Humility. The Process. Collaborative. Cast wide net. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water. Bettering the team. Everything's on the table. Flexibility. Athleticism. Don't miss opportunities. Day One. Respect for others. Function of process.His mention of how hard it is to get permissions to talk right now, leads me to conclude that Kim Ng could be our next GM. All the others are busy now, at GM meetings, working for their teams right now. Kim is working for the MLB, don't need permission to talk with her. Don't mean she is not qualified, don't mean that she will necessarily get the job. But he would like someone to handle it, and he did not mention anyone internal handling it, unlike his comment about farm director (and reportedly, Bell left details about long term planning, so it's a matter of fining someone to administer what his plans are, while Zaidi determines what to keep and what to improve/change). Plus, I'm very intrigued by Ng's work with international players, she should know a lot about that market, based on her work.
After hearing this press conference, I can't think of anything I would change of what I've wrote above. He clearly recognizes that there are good elements of the team (the baby) while noting that injuries hurt their 2018 results (bath water). I like that he's saying it's Day One, the knee jerk reaction (which many fans have been doing) is to blow up the roster, and start from scratch. That means that he'll take time to figure out what he has internally, and won't make any rash moves like Preller did when he took over SD (think how great their team would look with Trea Turner still on their roster!). He's pretty much preaching to the choir that is the Giants front office with all that he said about the team in the press conference. Which makes sense, as it was Baer who made the decision, and Sabean who had a big hand in selecting Zaidi.
Thanks, ogc—I feel very much in harmony with what you’ve written about Zaidi here, and I’d thought, hopefully, what you have about the likelihood of Ng’s becoming GM, partly for the reason you offer, her not being tied to a specific club readying itself for the off-season, and partly because of the candidates I’ve read about she alone has a breadth of familiarity with baseball worldwide as well as in the US as part of her continuing professional portfolio. Everyone else’s pro perspectives seem to bring less difference from Z’s than hers, an asset that ought to appeal to a behavioral economist who was taken with the undervalued-asset argument of *Moneyball*.
ReplyDeleteAbout the Giants, with the fourth-worst record in MLB over the last 2.5 years despite the third-highest payroll and a management team (FO and Bochy) that both you and I value highly, I’m less sanguine than you are. It’s wonderful for my morals, though, to have Zaidi as the guy to fix things, especially because he is not likely to be moved by the quasi- familial nostalgia that afflicts Baer et al., because he’s almost sure to have a pretty free hand, and because he’s sailing in on such a sea of rapture.
I understand the disbelief that people have that the Giants are not that far away. As I've been noting, it is the same reactions I got when I was saying that good times are around the corner, after the 2008 season, when they had one of the worse record in the majors for the past four seasons, despite a very high payroll and a front office that I and a few others valued highly.
DeleteI know I'm a broken record, but I'm not the only one to note that the Giants had a .500 record until injuries hurt them: that's a direct quote from Zaidi's press conference, plus he repeated it soon afterward with Ray Woodson on his podcast, Triples Alley.
It's also the math of Pythagorean, if you have a great defense and keep RA to a top MLB level, you can win a lot of games with even a poor non-MLB offense.
So the real question then becomes, what do you believe the starting pitchers' true talent levels are, and similarly for the bullpen.
And as I've tried to outline in these Zaidi posts and in prior posts on the 2019 Giants, I think the talent is there. We'll see.
It's clearer to see with Bumgarner, obviously, the only question that seems to be in people's minds is his reduced velocity, to which I say, there has been many throwers who rely on velocity to be effective pitchers, but Bumgarner, to my mind, has been effective because of his deceptive throwing mechanics, with his cross-body motion, which isn't going away, even as his velocity goes down.
DeleteAnd I believe in his arm/body more than I did Cain's or Lincecum's. Timmy was a tiny thing, and basically the goal was to ride that stallion until he died. I was hoping all the talk about him being a freak athlete would enable him to last longer, but we all knew the fuse could be short. Cain had elbow issues since his first pro season, and then it was revealed that issues again later caused the Giants to remove one year from his first extension. Had the Giants not done that, he probably would have started declining before getting that big contract extension. I don't begrudge him that, it happens.
Bum has been and is a horse, and the legend of him throwing so much more than MLB pitchers were came out soon after he made the majors. I wouldn't give him a huge 5 year contract, but hopefully a 3 year, $75-80M deal will keep him around longer (maybe 3rd year vesting option if he makes 30 starts in 2021?), I would be okay with that. He seems to want to be here, I think he probably wants to be a lifetime Giants, I think that he appreciates that he wouldn't even be here right now in this position, if the Giants didn't teach him how to repeat his mechanics when he's going good, and $75M is more than enough for him to retire to his ranch after his career is over, heck, he probably had enough already.
D-Rod is a big question mark, because nothing in his performances before would predict that he would do this well, and yet, over almost a full season, he dominated.
DeletePer this analysis, he's real, and has three above average pitches that he can use, and perhaps maintain that good performance if he can drop his bad pitches, and re-mix the good to maintain their goodness: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/is-dereck-rodriguez-for-real/
However, most advanced stats are not very high on him: 2.81 ERA but 3.74 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 458 SIERA, 5.18 DRA.
Quality of Pitch Average takes StatCast pitche data and calculates a QOPA to rate how good the pitcher was. D-Rod had a 4.55 QOPA, where 4.50 is average and 5.00 is good quality, which means that he's slightly above average.
Average SP ERA was 4.00 in 2018 in the NL, so that suggests that he can be a sub-4 ERA, but high 3's.
StatCast unfortunately does not do something like QOPA yet, but it does do xwOBA, and that came out to an elite looking .297, where average wOBA is .330. And that is not that far from his results, which was .289 wOBA.
For pitchers with at least 400 PA, he was 45th out of 145, so roughly top third, good but not great, but better than average. Median was .312, though I would note that generally only better pitchers are allowed to pitch for so many results/PA, and basically only covers the Top 3 starters of each team. Taken from that view, he would be about an average #2 starter out of these starters who had enough PA to qualify.
And that is what we are looking for from him, to be the #2 behind Bumgarner. So the older advanced pitching stats says that he's not that good a pitcher, basically a 5th starter, but based on his actual pitch by pitch results in 2018, the stats measure him to be average (QOPA) or better (StatCast xwOBA).
Suarez's wOBA was .329, and his xwOBA was .330, and he was 113 out of 145. Oh, I was wrong above, 145 pitchers means Top 5 starters over the majors; still does not change D-Rod's #2 positioning based on xwOBA. So this basically places Andy about a borderline 4/5 starter.
DeleteAndy had a different, better advanced stat profile though, with a 4.49 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 3.77 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA, 4.74 tERA (just found this, DRod had 4.16 tERA), 4.08 DRA. As bad as that may all seem, BP had him at 2.3 WARP in 2018, which is an above average player, and extrapolating that to 32 starts (vs. 29 starts) would put him at 2.5-2.6 WARP.
That's what we are looking for, an average pitcher, for the #4 spot in the rotation, the Zito role. All the stats above suggest that he can be that guy.
And, as I noted before, he had a nice long stretch of good starts, where he had a sub-3 ERA, so there is the potential that he puts it together and get his ERA under 4 significantly.
Stratton had bad number mostly: 5.08 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 4.43 xFIP, 4.70 SIERA, 5.30 tERA. But his QOPA of 4.62 is even better than D-Rod.
DeleteOh, and I forgot to look up Suarez, and he's the best, 5.19 QOPA, which I should note is nothing like ERA (he shouldn't have used a similar scale to ERA, maybe multiply by 10 or something), and 5.00 is Good Quality while 5.50 is Great QUality, so he's the best among the young pitchers.
Wow, just looked at Bumgarner's QOPA, and he's been rated as between poor and average for his whole career, so take this measure with a giant grain of salt.
Stratton fits the 5th starter mode that we have had, as the 5th starter usually was a number of pitchers, some who pitch well, some who didn't, it was a mixed bag but sometimes was good. That's Stratton.
So what we need is a pitcher who can do the #3 starter role. Samardzija did that in 2016, but not in 2017 or 2018. Holland did it for us in 2018.
DeleteHolland had 3.57 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 4.39 tERA, and 4.20 SIERA.
He had a 4.52 QOPA, which is basically average. Interestingly enough, his QOPA was basically average in the seasons before, while his ERA was sky high, QOPA actually noted that he was doing average quality pitching, and sometimes above average quality in some seasons.
Samardzija was actually above average in 2016-17, with 4.77 then 4.60, before his bad 4.23 in 2018.
Giants hopefully can sign Holland to a cheap-ish deal, he actually fits the mode of what Zaidi is looking for, players who are willing to take on different roles as the team needs, and he did starting, he did long relief, he did some short relief, then back to starting, and he did it with a smile on his face, and a desire to return to the Giants.
With Holland, that give the Giants six good enough starters, and then based on performances, they can mix and match who goes into the rotation, and who is long relief or AAA, and hopefully Zaidi is flexible enough to go with a 6-man rotation if they all do well enough, all six are on opposite sides of the specturm: some are on the older side, losing velocity, and fighting age, some are on the young side, haven't really pitched a full 180+ MLB season, might need a breather, which a 6-man rotation would provide.
Plus, there's Blach in the mix, as long relief perhaps, and Shaun Anderson as another guy in the mix as well, for the starting rotation.
And with Adon's revelation in AFL, he could be ready for bullpen duty at the start, or continue to work as a starter and be ready by mid-season.
Not my morals, but my morale. Damn autocorrect!
ReplyDeleteThe morals/morale correction refers to the very first comment above.
DeleteTo those of ogc in between, I would note that ogc correctly touts his foresight in 2008, about good times ahead, but ignores that he has seen good times ahead consistently ever since then; and after 2015, the times have been not so good, despite his rosy vision. I think it’s a bit too hopeful to take encouragement, as he does, from the Giants’ being able to bob along near the surface of total mediocrity, .500 ball, till the last month of 2018, after a year and a half of abysmal baseball despite lavish spending. Given the housecleaning that Giants’ management did, of which Zaidi’s hiring is a first Rubicon-crossing step, Baer & co. seem not to think mediocrity so impressive either.
My guess is that the roster will change under FZ enough that the whole discussion above will be mooted. The rotation that ogc ably analyzes won’t be the Giants’, because a couple of new pitchers will be part of it. Numerous players whose team spirit and valor let the 2018 Giants tread water for several months will have been replaced. We will develop a deeper bench and a less shallow farm system for ogc and DrB and Cove Chatter to analyze, and for us all to take into account to a new degree. At least, I hope so. We’d better.
It's fair to say that I've been rosy. I've been saying it myself for a number of years myself, because I've been unable to figure out how to factor in the scourge of baseball forecasting: injuries. So I cop to that.
DeleteAnd I don't know what to do about that. I even tried to account for it this last season, and then Bumgarner got hit by a random ball up the middle, Cueto had TJS, Samardzija had something bad with his shoulder, Strickland punched a wall, Longoria got hit by a pitch, Belt had appendicitis, both Belt and Crawford had knee problems, Pence also had some sort of knee issue, Duggar got hurt by a hard tag while sliding back. Who can predict that?
So if you want to ding me for this type of "rosy" predictions, go ahead, but then maybe you shouldn't read here in the future, because you are going to get the same old rosy crap I've been giving.
Hence, why I personally try to compare myself with what others in social media says.
DeleteFor example, about ten years ago, fans were really down about the Giants in 2008, thinking the Giants were sinking to 100 losses (i.e. 62 wins) and I totally disagreed, and, yes rosy, but I said that they would be closer to .500 than 100 losses, and I just barely made that 72 wins is 9 away from .500, 10 games away from 100 losses.
Or, like last season. People were expecting just as bad or worse than what happened in 2017. And the team was at .500 when September started, at which point they were missing key cogs of the offense in Posey, McCutchen, Belt, plus just lost Duggar (or about to, can't remember exactly).
I see a lot of people saying I told you so, when really, they had nothing to say for 5 months of the season. If you prefer that type of predictions, you will be disappointed here.
What I worry about more, as well, is process. I was right to be positive about Holland, Suarez, and Duggar. I wasn't about Stratton, who knew that he didn't know his mechanics and still needed to learn his successful mechanics. Still, I thought the pitching would be good overall, and it was in spite of all the injuries, and great at times.
And I wasn't right about Pence, but I thought that the young guys would be able to pick it up after him, and they weren't, so I was wrong there as well. Still, the offense was generating 4.3 runs scored for three months, from May to July, before the injuries took their toll.
As much as Naysayers are loathe to say it, the 2018 Giants team was a .500 team until the management gave up on it in September, both because of the trade and the injuries. Many people I was reading wanted to blow up the team last off-season, and yes, .500 team is not something one should aspire to, but if, instead of injuries across the whole team, we had none of the random injuries like the pinky breaks of three different players, three different ways, or a tagged sliding player, my forecast would have looked better than what most people were saying about the Giants before the 2018 season.
So yeah, I wasn't right. I was rosy. I've never touted myself as being very accurate with season by season prognostications, and if you expect that from anyone regarding baseball, you are going to be very disappointed.
I wanted to address this comment, as well: "Given the housecleaning that Giants’ management did, of which Zaidi’s hiring is a first Rubicon-crossing step, Baer & co. seem not to think mediocrity so impressive either."
DeleteThis ownership has never been impressed with mediocrity ever, and that's why Evans is gone. I said this myself in my first post after Evans was fired, that he did nothing impressive while GM, and I had no problems with replacing him.
My interpretation of the situation is that Sabean got tired of being GM, and hence they bumped him up and made Evans GM. Hence that report late last season where Sabean was reported to say that he's glad he's no involved, and then ownership pull him in because they want him involved. Hence why he was part of the group interviewing and advising Baer on who to hire. Giants ownership still wanted his expertise, but needed a new GM to replace Sabaen, and hence Evans. But Evans failed as the replacement, so they looked for another replacement for Sabean. And found him in Zaidi.
So there was no housecleaning. There was a firing of Evans. Sabean is still around, and he even found his replacement, and he'll still be around, as a resource for Zaidi, as he gets to do his real love, scouting. Even Bell I don't see as a cleaning out, as Zaidi isn't even worried about hiring a replacement farm director, saying that they have the people who can handle things internally. Bell, again, went where his heart was, leaving us after a year. If you want to count the guy who left for another international job, Lalal or something like that, sure, but I view that more as rats leaving the sinking ship, as it was clear even before Zaidi was hired, that the Giants international operations needed to change, and the new person would be in charge of changing and improving that. So I see no housecleaning, just one person, Evans.
As I said about Zaidi in my other post, people who expect wholesale changes will probably be disappointed. If Zaidi makes moves just to make moves, I'll be very disappointed in him.
DeleteAs I noted in my posts on Zaidi, he said it himself in his press conference: the team was a .500 team and competitiveness energizes the fan base. He's not going to make changes to the team other than to make it better and more competitive with what they got now. He is going to be resetting the team, not making grand moves.
They are basically looking to Zaidi to become the new Sabean, who rebuilt quickly after being named GM, and after being allowed to let go of Bonds and to reset the team. There was no housecleaning, Sabean's strategies and long term vision still guides the Giants, it is just Zaidi who now gets to implement and execute on that, as well as to evolve it from here in his own inimitable way.
So I don't think the pitching rotation is probably not going to change much from above, as you suggest.
Why? Mainly because of the questions about each pitcher that I've seen Giants fans list about each, is also apparent to other teams. Bumgarner has been a great Giants playoff pitcher, but he hurt himself stupidly and his velocity has dropped since. He's going nowhere unless somebody makes a crazy offer for him. I expect teams to offer for him, just because Zaidi said everything is on the table, but they will just give him low bids.
However, where this probably would have enraged Sabean and made him less likely to talk with that GM in the future, Zaidi will say something like, "come on dude, you're killing me" and make a joke out of it, before trying to fleece the other GM for another player.
And that's where I see great improvement in trades for the Giants. Whereas Sabean could not engage other teams and keep on stealing players away with nothing prospects, like he did early in his tenure as GM, Zaidi can keep the relationship going and develop it, so that future opportunities are not lost.
D-Rod never showed any such great pitching before, so teams, while they might be impressed as I was with his StatCast stats, will also under bid in any offer for him, because of the chance that he'll regress to his prior form.
Suarez has never been that high a touted prospect, and pedigree is part of what gets trade value. His overall numbers also look bad too, unlike his underlying numbers, so all you are going to get are teams trying to steal him away from us with low bids.
So the only way I see Zaidi trading away SP is if some team gets desperate enough to offer more current value than the SP is worth, but any team with that much talent is competing for playoffs as well, and more likely to trade future value as they want to max their chances now as well.
I feel that's the real reason the Giants have not made such type of big trades before, as they have been operating on a "win now, worry later" philosophy, due to their worry about filling seats.
I can see Zaidi upgrading the rotation, as he said it himself in his press conference. But he said that it needed reinforcements, not wholesale changes. So I would not be surprised to see him go after both Holland and a mid-rotation guy, someone like Chatwood was last off-season, highly touted guy ready to rise (unfortunately for the Cubs, he instead regressed, but that's the breaks sometimes, with touting). And I'm hoping on him trying for buy low trades, like Sonny Gray, though I've recently read that the A's are poking around, and they have more prospects to trade than we do.
I think anyone expecting wholesale changes to the rotation will be disappointed. And if Zaidi do make a trade of a SP, I would expect the guy we receive (or package of guys) to be an upgrade on whoever we lose, which just improves the team overall, which just improves our chances to win, and I'll always be for that.
Where I do see a lot of changes is in the composition of the bench. But that's not wholesale change, that's tweaking.
DeleteI see him getting a cheap platoon power RHH bat who can play both 1B and LF. I assume he's going after a good starting RF, as well, and that's probably via free agency. But that was happening, Zaidi or no Zaidi.
Sabean always played that game as well, leaving a starting spot open for young players to win, but injecting some veteran savvy to provide a competitive hurdle for the young to reach for. But Zaidi appears to be a much more aggressive GM, so I see him getting stronger starter vets, not just hurdles, with the idea that Belt will be moved, depending on the situation, between 1B and LF, when Posey needs starts at 1B, with the platoon guy taking starts, and hopefully someone among Williamson, Slater, and whomever else invited, will outright win the position, leaving the platoon guy to be a big bat off the bench, and occasional starter. I expect Zaidi to be making it clear to whoever signs that their role will depend on the situation, there are no guarantees here, other than to play a lot of different positions.
I expect Zaidi to pursue players like Marwin Gonzalez, who can play multiple positions, while supplying a bat. That's something he's going to build up over time, though, as opportunities fall into his lap, plus he's going to try to develop them in the minors as well. Marwin probably will prove to be too expensive, so it will be interesting to see whether Zaidi makes a play for him or not. So I'm not sure if Sandoval or Hanson will make it to the opening day roster, it will depend on who Zaidi will be able to procure for the bench.
Where I expect more changes is in the bullpen because he has a number of trade pieces that Zaidi can play with.
DeleteOther than Smith and Moronta, I have to think anybody else could be traded. Relievers have been bringing in good value in recent seasons. Both Dyson and Strickland are good trade pieces that should be in demand, given their closer experience, though Strickland's headcase ways dissipated value. I don't see the others as likely to provide much value, though.
Especially, I don't see Melancon going anywhere, because the Giants would have to give up money, and he was relatively effective in 2018, just not earning his closer money, but sometimes teams get desperate enough, and he did do well, once healthy, and before tiring out in September. Some talk about dumping him, but I don't see Zaidi working under any budget rule to stay under the CBT, if he thinks he can make the Giants playoff competitive with Melancon or any other high priced player.
Still, the Giants have a surplus, especially with Adon doing so well in the AFL right now (he could always take the Sanchez route, RP first, SP later) and Anderson can also be inserted there as well, plus, as I noted, if they can sign Holland, and perhaps trade for Gray, Samardzija could be moved back into the bullpen, or even Holland.
I think I'll end for now on this: I try to focus more on the big picture of where the Giants are headed, like when I said that the Giants are going to be the Team of the 2010 Decade, which is looking good right now, barring Red Sox repeating in 2019.
DeleteThat's where I've been more successful than with season by season predictions. Which is fool's errand, I'm finding, perhaps I should stop with that and just focus on future direction instead. Obviously, seasonal guessing is not my forte.
I think the Giants are headed to better times, and most disagree, and I'm fine with that, just like I was fine with it 10 years ago. Which I know doesn't mean that I'm correct now, any more than it did 10 years ago, just that I'm good with it. What can I do, just agree with everyone when I see differently?
My analysis finds that we have a good base of young pitching that can help us moving forward, I wasn't as sure of that prior to 2018, but this grouping, while no Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, has the advantage of Bumgarner being around (probably) in 2019, Cueto (probably) in 2020, and who knows, maybe Bumgarner going forward as well, if he can accept a shorter term deal that Zaidi appears to favor.
That, along with a great bullpen, and better defense with Duggar hopefully in CF, makes me feel good about the team's chances in 2019. LIke 2018, we are not going to be a top team, but we have the horses in the pitching staff to do some damage if we can get into the playoffs.
Go Giants!
Housecleaning: after the debacle of later 2016 and all 2017, management had all new coaches or newly positioned coaches at First and Third Bases, Bullpen, Hitting (and Asst Hitting), Pitching, and Bench. Sabean was moved to a more active role, and whoever had been in charge of Player Development got a new boss in Bell. That is pretty much everyone below Bochy on the field and everyone but Goldfarb and Shelley in the wings, isn’t it, save for Kochan in the clubhouse, who got the axe before the 2018 season was even over. By September 2018, as the team trod water, management pulled the plug, trading McCutchen, and shortly thereafter deciding to demote Evans. Now we have Zaidi who seems likely, isn’t he, to bring his own executive team in? We’ll have a new GM and a new Player Development director as an essential part of his hiring, and quite possibly a new head of analytics, given Z’s interests, to take Goldfarb’s job. There’s been much speculation about replacing John Barr.
ReplyDeleteBetween the end of the 2017 season and the start of the 2019 season, we can anticipate everyone on the field level with a new job, save for Bochy, whose contract will expire at the end of the 2019 season, and every senior FO official under Baer himself with a new job or having survived a very precarious period.
I’d say that was a pretty massive housecleaning, on the field in 2017 and off the field but much more sweeping in 2018-19. It’s what I would expect if the Powers That Be believe that the team has major problems that haven’t been fixed and can’t be fixed in-house.
I have faith that Zaidi et al are smart enough, and the Giants rich and proud enough, to fix the problems. But I don’t want to minimize them, any more than Baer & Co., judging by their actions since the Fall of 2017, want to.