This post has the Giants Pure Quality Start scores for the month of September 2012, PQS as defined in Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster annual book and they published the details here (unfortunately, they removed the article; this link gets you at least to the PQS definition, read down to middle for details; I recommend buying their older books via their website to read up on this methodology and concept). I wrote on this first in 2006 and have compiled their stats on a regular basis, so I'm continuing it this season for continuity and historical comparison (there is the "PQS" label that you can click to see the old posts on this). Regular readers can skip to the next section.
This is the Quality Start with a sabermetric DIPS twist, and it gets really easy to calculate once you get used to it. I don't think it's the end all or be all, but then nothing really is that. It is, as I like to say, another piece of the puzzle. A dominating start is scored a 4 or 5 and a disaster start is scored a 0 or 1. DOM% is the percentage of starts that are dominating, DIS% is the percentage of starts that are disasters (any start under 5.0 IP is automatically a 0, or disaster).
Tuesday, November 06, 2012
Friday, November 02, 2012
My Latest Comment on Success in the Playoffs
I commented on in a comment at another site, and I thought I would share it here, as it encapsulates a lot of thoughts and ideas that I've been squirreling away and represents my latest thoughts about winning championships.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Your San Francisco Giants: Team of the 2010 Decade
I was going to post this on a popular Giants community but then I realized that it would fall on deaf ears anyway and they would just attack with unkind words once more.
I'm Sad
Yes, sad to say, but even with the Giants SECOND World Championship in THREE years, I'm sad. I know I'm odd. I know I walk to the beat of a different drum. I care whether my brothers are happy or not. And I consider my fellow Giants fans to all be my brothers (and sisters too, just don't want to repeat this every time).
And there are still clearly Giants fans who either are: deluded, just can't enjoy themselves, or just can't let things go. And I understand that last one, as I can't let it go either.
Grant (among others) railed into me a couple of years ago because I had the temerity to say that fans should thank Brian Sabean, or they don't deserve to enjoy that the Giants were in the World Series again (this was before the series started). Afterward, he told me that I should be happy I was right - THIS TIME - and intimated that it would be different in the future. After the Giants 2 of 3 mini-dynasty here, who's right now?
Team of the 2010 Decade
Part of being an analyst is finding something to either rally people together or to stick bamboo shoots under the nails of others. I had already been feeling disenchanted with the Naysayers for a while when in the late 2000's decade, I thought of this term - Team of the 2010 Decade - as both an indication of what I thought the team could do if things went as they appeared to be going and a way to give the Naysayers something to feel uncomfortable with.
Honestly, I like to protect people. I tried to protect my friends in the 70's when they thought that the Giants were going to have a good season, like they did before, and I told him point-blank: no, they were going to be mediocre. Not the worse, but not the best either. I didn't want them thinking things were good when they were not. I also tried to protect fellow fans today through the wonders of social media, that, hey, sure we've been going through a tough patch here in the mid-2000's, during Bonds' last years with us, but the pot at the end of the rainbow is coming near. But I was a pariah for daring to be openly happy when Sabean got another two year extension. And the future did look good to me, and I didn't want my fellow fans to lose hope and get their dauber down, because I felt that hope was around the corner, and soon.
We had Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and there was Brian Wilson and Pablo Sandoval, plus Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey were rising up the farm pretty fast, and Jonathan Sanchez could be pretty good when he's not screwing himself up. And the latest studies back then said that pitching and fielding, with a good closer and bullpen were the keys to going deep into the playoffs (and nothing new has come out since), and winning it all, wining that elusive World Championship that we all had been pining for. Plus, my research showed that a good defensive team could win even with a poor (not the worse but poor) offense. Then, any lineup with Sandoval and Posey in the middle could never be that bad, you just need to find some average hitters to surround them with, and the offense would be good enough.
It all made pretty good sense to me. I knew that there was a good chance that I could have egg on my face for saying that the Giants were going to finally win a World Series with this core group, but I thought that the potential was there. Analysts need to tread near the edge sometimes.
Faster to First Than Anybody Else
I'll admit that I never dreamed that it would happen so fast, in fact, the first year of the 2010 Decade. And I never dreamed that it would happen twice in three seasons (and who knows what would have happened last season, with a healthy Posey and a still consistently great Lincecum, along with a hot Beltran). Given the vagaries of the playoff system - see the Phillies in 2011 - I felt good that they would win one eventually because they had great pitching, but when was not clear both because other teams had good pitching too plus while a team can win with a poor offense, that don't mean that they'll win every time. Still, it was clear to me that they should win one eventually, so I wasn't totally surprised by 2010's championship.
And now it is looking pretty good that the Giants will be the Team of the 2010 Decade. They certainly have put their stamp all over it with two out of three years already. And the core keeps on improving and improving.
That's because player development continued apace. Just when I thought that Posey might be the last significant position player to be produced, Brandon Belt emerged from obscurity to be our version of Trout for the Angels - not as great, but just as impactful, for a Giants team that now had poor draft position. Getting any starter from the draft is hard, but to get one who looks like he'll be a star player for years to come, from as far back as the 5th round is nearly impossible. Then Brandon Crawford showed off great potential in the majors after being rushed up, and his defense is such that we can afford to carry him even if his offense is not great, and yet he has shown the ability to be a good hitter to boot.
Give It Up to our Scouts
Furthermore, the team kept on picking up key pieces through cheap free agents and seemingly minor trades. Andres Torres. Juan Uribe. Freddy Sanchez. Aubrey Huff. Pat Burrell. Mike Fontenot. Ramon Ramirez. Javier Lopez. Jose Guillen. Cody Ross. Santiago Casilla. Chris Stewart. Ryan Vogelsong. Melky Cabrera. Angel Pagan. Gregor Blanco. Joaquin Arias. George Kontos. Clay Hensley. Marco Scutaro. Jose Mijares. Some were out of the total blue, like Torres and Vogelsong. Others, like Casilla, Stewart, Blanco, and Arias, you look at their past record and wonder how the heck we got them, as they had good peripherals, some even good OBP, and yet they were desperate for a job somewhere, anywhere.
Our Giants scouts appear to have a long memory now, remembering players who were once good. Like Crawford, who had a bad junior year but was expected to be a first rounder before his junior season. Or Arias, who was a key player in the A-Rod trade with the Yankees, with Texas choosing him over Cano. Over and over again, whether in the draft or signing minor league free agents, it seemed like our scouts saw something that nobody else saw, and pounced. THAT is what Moneyball is really about, about seeing something that your competitors can't see and acting on your beliefs before the price got sky high.
The Future Looks Bright, I Gotta Wear Orange and Black Shades
Now the team is beyond what I could ever dream about. Posey, according to the experts, was going to be a great defensive catcher but only a good, not great hitter, meanwhile Weiters was considered the much better hitter and for power, and the lesser on defense. They couldn't be more reversed of the experts opinion. And Posey is the likely MVP of the 2012 season, having already been voted that by two different organizations and likely to win the traditional MVP award given by The Sporting News. And this was his first full season. He's the offense's equivalent of Tim Lincecum, in terms of performance.
We still have Pandoval, but with Belt and likely Hunter Pence, long term, we have a great core for the middle of our lineup, for at least 3 if not more seasons: Sandoval, Posey, Pence, Belt. I can see Belt moving to bat 2nd once he can hit regularly and not strike out so much, as he has a high OBP, good speed, ability to steal bases, plus can hit for good power to boot. That is a great middle of lineup.
Up top, we have Pagan, I believe, as I think he'll sign with us for a fair contract, and then when Gary Brown is ready, we'll have the best leadoff guy we have had probably since Brett Butler manned CF for us.
Meanwhile, both Blanco and Crawford look like they can be good hitters for us at some point. Blanco is very good at getting on base already in his career, and he can loft the ball often enough to get extra-base power going for us. Crawford definitely will develop some power, and looks like he can eventually learn to hit as well, and be both a great glove and a good bat at SS for us. And both project, with the above hitters around, to be our bottom of lineup guys. They can be real strengths for us there, giving us depth in our lineup, with no easy outs, much like the Cards this season.
And whether or not the Giants re-sign Scutaro - my bet is that they do - they should be able to retain Theriot, who was good for us when healthy during the season, bridging us from Freddy to Marco. And I'm hopefuly that Nick Noonan will be able to provide some good performances here and there in the near future for us at 2B. Plus, Joe Panik still is looking good for rising up to the majors and taking the starting 2B job in a couple of years or so.
So the offense looks really good, and look really likely to be good for at least three if not more seasons. On top of that, Posey I'm still hoping can be a great defensive catcher, Belt, Crawford, Sandoval, and Blanco are already great fielders, so I expect another good defensive year from the Giants in 2013. If anything, it should be better, as Crawford was really lost for a while in early 2012 and I think Posey's ankle recovery made him less able to do certain catcher tasks
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
That has been my mantra for many years now. And the Giants got pitching. I totally believe that 2012 was just a hiccup that Lincecum had and he'll be fine going forward. Plus Cain and Bumgarner will be our steady Eddie's in the rotation. And Vogelsong, I think, will surprise with his longevity as a good pitcher, despite his advanced age, as he knows how to pitch, and when his velocity goes down, he'll still be able to sling a good start. And Barry Zito, contract aside, is great for us as our #5 starter, and when he is on, he's as good as any of our other starters. And they are all capable of throwing a DOM start regularly during the season and during the playoffs, and DOM starts are how, as my research showed, (one and two) a team can rush through the playoffs and win the World Series championship.
So our starting pitching looks good, barring injury, for at least a couple of years (and I think we can resign Lincecum to a contract similar to Cain, but bigger in terms of dollars per year) plus good prospects coming up. They have young guys available near-term, like Eric Surkamp, Chris Heston, and Michael Kickham performing well in the upper minors, plus Yusmeiro Petit possibly around as well. Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton, and Martin Agosta, are more far off, but they look like they have good potential for reaching up here and doing well, as their strikeout ability is good. And the four of them have potential to be top of the rotation type starters, from what I've read about their potential. True, many prospects die on the vine, but with four potential top of rotation starters, have to think at least one will at least be a good enough starter for the Giants.
The bullpen looks good as well, even if Brian Wilson don't come back (hard to tell with guys with their second TJS). Obviously, Sergio Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Mijares, and Kontos is a pretty good core there. Plus, I think that they will be able to resign Jeremy Affeldt to a contract for another couple of seasons. And I think Runzler will finally be healthy enough to take a spot in the bullpen, though that would make it four lefties in the bullpen in 2013.
In the farm system, I think that Heath Hembree and Brett Bochy will be ready to contribute real soon, as soon as there is an opening. And I still like Dan Otero for contributions at some point, Jacob Dunnington too. Plus, Clay Hensley was good for us until he got injured, which blew up his ERA, which was in the 2's until that happened. But there is not enough space in the bullpen, so there could be a trade, or they might let Affeldt go, but there is a lot of bullpen talent and not enough space for all of these guys. And starters could always move to the bullpen and do well, as Lincecum so deliciously showed us in these playoffs, and as Eckersley showed long ago.
Dynasty, Dynasty, Dynasty
Based on the above, I don't see why, barring a huge catastrophe of some sort, the Giants can't continue to be competitive for the World Series championship every season. They won't necessarily win every season, but with their core players all in their 20's, they should be more World Series games (and championships) in their future, creating a dynasty not seen in the NL since the Big Red Machine of the 70's or in the majors since the Yankees of the late 1990's (which had a core of Jeter, Posoda, Pettitte, and Rivera, all of whom were acquired by the Yankees under their then scouting director, Brian Sabean). The Giants should be the Team of the Decade, Team of the 2010's.
I'm Sad
Yes, sad to say, but even with the Giants SECOND World Championship in THREE years, I'm sad. I know I'm odd. I know I walk to the beat of a different drum. I care whether my brothers are happy or not. And I consider my fellow Giants fans to all be my brothers (and sisters too, just don't want to repeat this every time).
And there are still clearly Giants fans who either are: deluded, just can't enjoy themselves, or just can't let things go. And I understand that last one, as I can't let it go either.
Grant (among others) railed into me a couple of years ago because I had the temerity to say that fans should thank Brian Sabean, or they don't deserve to enjoy that the Giants were in the World Series again (this was before the series started). Afterward, he told me that I should be happy I was right - THIS TIME - and intimated that it would be different in the future. After the Giants 2 of 3 mini-dynasty here, who's right now?
Team of the 2010 Decade
Part of being an analyst is finding something to either rally people together or to stick bamboo shoots under the nails of others. I had already been feeling disenchanted with the Naysayers for a while when in the late 2000's decade, I thought of this term - Team of the 2010 Decade - as both an indication of what I thought the team could do if things went as they appeared to be going and a way to give the Naysayers something to feel uncomfortable with.
Honestly, I like to protect people. I tried to protect my friends in the 70's when they thought that the Giants were going to have a good season, like they did before, and I told him point-blank: no, they were going to be mediocre. Not the worse, but not the best either. I didn't want them thinking things were good when they were not. I also tried to protect fellow fans today through the wonders of social media, that, hey, sure we've been going through a tough patch here in the mid-2000's, during Bonds' last years with us, but the pot at the end of the rainbow is coming near. But I was a pariah for daring to be openly happy when Sabean got another two year extension. And the future did look good to me, and I didn't want my fellow fans to lose hope and get their dauber down, because I felt that hope was around the corner, and soon.
We had Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, and there was Brian Wilson and Pablo Sandoval, plus Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey were rising up the farm pretty fast, and Jonathan Sanchez could be pretty good when he's not screwing himself up. And the latest studies back then said that pitching and fielding, with a good closer and bullpen were the keys to going deep into the playoffs (and nothing new has come out since), and winning it all, wining that elusive World Championship that we all had been pining for. Plus, my research showed that a good defensive team could win even with a poor (not the worse but poor) offense. Then, any lineup with Sandoval and Posey in the middle could never be that bad, you just need to find some average hitters to surround them with, and the offense would be good enough.
It all made pretty good sense to me. I knew that there was a good chance that I could have egg on my face for saying that the Giants were going to finally win a World Series with this core group, but I thought that the potential was there. Analysts need to tread near the edge sometimes.
Faster to First Than Anybody Else
I'll admit that I never dreamed that it would happen so fast, in fact, the first year of the 2010 Decade. And I never dreamed that it would happen twice in three seasons (and who knows what would have happened last season, with a healthy Posey and a still consistently great Lincecum, along with a hot Beltran). Given the vagaries of the playoff system - see the Phillies in 2011 - I felt good that they would win one eventually because they had great pitching, but when was not clear both because other teams had good pitching too plus while a team can win with a poor offense, that don't mean that they'll win every time. Still, it was clear to me that they should win one eventually, so I wasn't totally surprised by 2010's championship.
And now it is looking pretty good that the Giants will be the Team of the 2010 Decade. They certainly have put their stamp all over it with two out of three years already. And the core keeps on improving and improving.
That's because player development continued apace. Just when I thought that Posey might be the last significant position player to be produced, Brandon Belt emerged from obscurity to be our version of Trout for the Angels - not as great, but just as impactful, for a Giants team that now had poor draft position. Getting any starter from the draft is hard, but to get one who looks like he'll be a star player for years to come, from as far back as the 5th round is nearly impossible. Then Brandon Crawford showed off great potential in the majors after being rushed up, and his defense is such that we can afford to carry him even if his offense is not great, and yet he has shown the ability to be a good hitter to boot.
Give It Up to our Scouts
Furthermore, the team kept on picking up key pieces through cheap free agents and seemingly minor trades. Andres Torres. Juan Uribe. Freddy Sanchez. Aubrey Huff. Pat Burrell. Mike Fontenot. Ramon Ramirez. Javier Lopez. Jose Guillen. Cody Ross. Santiago Casilla. Chris Stewart. Ryan Vogelsong. Melky Cabrera. Angel Pagan. Gregor Blanco. Joaquin Arias. George Kontos. Clay Hensley. Marco Scutaro. Jose Mijares. Some were out of the total blue, like Torres and Vogelsong. Others, like Casilla, Stewart, Blanco, and Arias, you look at their past record and wonder how the heck we got them, as they had good peripherals, some even good OBP, and yet they were desperate for a job somewhere, anywhere.
Our Giants scouts appear to have a long memory now, remembering players who were once good. Like Crawford, who had a bad junior year but was expected to be a first rounder before his junior season. Or Arias, who was a key player in the A-Rod trade with the Yankees, with Texas choosing him over Cano. Over and over again, whether in the draft or signing minor league free agents, it seemed like our scouts saw something that nobody else saw, and pounced. THAT is what Moneyball is really about, about seeing something that your competitors can't see and acting on your beliefs before the price got sky high.
The Future Looks Bright, I Gotta Wear Orange and Black Shades
Now the team is beyond what I could ever dream about. Posey, according to the experts, was going to be a great defensive catcher but only a good, not great hitter, meanwhile Weiters was considered the much better hitter and for power, and the lesser on defense. They couldn't be more reversed of the experts opinion. And Posey is the likely MVP of the 2012 season, having already been voted that by two different organizations and likely to win the traditional MVP award given by The Sporting News. And this was his first full season. He's the offense's equivalent of Tim Lincecum, in terms of performance.
We still have Pandoval, but with Belt and likely Hunter Pence, long term, we have a great core for the middle of our lineup, for at least 3 if not more seasons: Sandoval, Posey, Pence, Belt. I can see Belt moving to bat 2nd once he can hit regularly and not strike out so much, as he has a high OBP, good speed, ability to steal bases, plus can hit for good power to boot. That is a great middle of lineup.
Up top, we have Pagan, I believe, as I think he'll sign with us for a fair contract, and then when Gary Brown is ready, we'll have the best leadoff guy we have had probably since Brett Butler manned CF for us.
Meanwhile, both Blanco and Crawford look like they can be good hitters for us at some point. Blanco is very good at getting on base already in his career, and he can loft the ball often enough to get extra-base power going for us. Crawford definitely will develop some power, and looks like he can eventually learn to hit as well, and be both a great glove and a good bat at SS for us. And both project, with the above hitters around, to be our bottom of lineup guys. They can be real strengths for us there, giving us depth in our lineup, with no easy outs, much like the Cards this season.
And whether or not the Giants re-sign Scutaro - my bet is that they do - they should be able to retain Theriot, who was good for us when healthy during the season, bridging us from Freddy to Marco. And I'm hopefuly that Nick Noonan will be able to provide some good performances here and there in the near future for us at 2B. Plus, Joe Panik still is looking good for rising up to the majors and taking the starting 2B job in a couple of years or so.
So the offense looks really good, and look really likely to be good for at least three if not more seasons. On top of that, Posey I'm still hoping can be a great defensive catcher, Belt, Crawford, Sandoval, and Blanco are already great fielders, so I expect another good defensive year from the Giants in 2013. If anything, it should be better, as Crawford was really lost for a while in early 2012 and I think Posey's ankle recovery made him less able to do certain catcher tasks
Pitching, Pitching, Pitching
That has been my mantra for many years now. And the Giants got pitching. I totally believe that 2012 was just a hiccup that Lincecum had and he'll be fine going forward. Plus Cain and Bumgarner will be our steady Eddie's in the rotation. And Vogelsong, I think, will surprise with his longevity as a good pitcher, despite his advanced age, as he knows how to pitch, and when his velocity goes down, he'll still be able to sling a good start. And Barry Zito, contract aside, is great for us as our #5 starter, and when he is on, he's as good as any of our other starters. And they are all capable of throwing a DOM start regularly during the season and during the playoffs, and DOM starts are how, as my research showed, (one and two) a team can rush through the playoffs and win the World Series championship.
So our starting pitching looks good, barring injury, for at least a couple of years (and I think we can resign Lincecum to a contract similar to Cain, but bigger in terms of dollars per year) plus good prospects coming up. They have young guys available near-term, like Eric Surkamp, Chris Heston, and Michael Kickham performing well in the upper minors, plus Yusmeiro Petit possibly around as well. Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton, and Martin Agosta, are more far off, but they look like they have good potential for reaching up here and doing well, as their strikeout ability is good. And the four of them have potential to be top of the rotation type starters, from what I've read about their potential. True, many prospects die on the vine, but with four potential top of rotation starters, have to think at least one will at least be a good enough starter for the Giants.
The bullpen looks good as well, even if Brian Wilson don't come back (hard to tell with guys with their second TJS). Obviously, Sergio Romo, Lopez, Casilla, Mijares, and Kontos is a pretty good core there. Plus, I think that they will be able to resign Jeremy Affeldt to a contract for another couple of seasons. And I think Runzler will finally be healthy enough to take a spot in the bullpen, though that would make it four lefties in the bullpen in 2013.
In the farm system, I think that Heath Hembree and Brett Bochy will be ready to contribute real soon, as soon as there is an opening. And I still like Dan Otero for contributions at some point, Jacob Dunnington too. Plus, Clay Hensley was good for us until he got injured, which blew up his ERA, which was in the 2's until that happened. But there is not enough space in the bullpen, so there could be a trade, or they might let Affeldt go, but there is a lot of bullpen talent and not enough space for all of these guys. And starters could always move to the bullpen and do well, as Lincecum so deliciously showed us in these playoffs, and as Eckersley showed long ago.
Dynasty, Dynasty, Dynasty
Based on the above, I don't see why, barring a huge catastrophe of some sort, the Giants can't continue to be competitive for the World Series championship every season. They won't necessarily win every season, but with their core players all in their 20's, they should be more World Series games (and championships) in their future, creating a dynasty not seen in the NL since the Big Red Machine of the 70's or in the majors since the Yankees of the late 1990's (which had a core of Jeter, Posoda, Pettitte, and Rivera, all of whom were acquired by the Yankees under their then scouting director, Brian Sabean). The Giants should be the Team of the Decade, Team of the 2010's.
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