Your 2010 Giants are 7-2: Beat LA! Beat LA! Beat LA!

The Giants have won all three series they have played in so far.  They have been lucky to some degree so far, as Astros have been terrible and, well, the Pirates are the Pirates, plus they avoided Lance Berkman in Houston and Chipper Jones against Atlanta.

Still, they have faced a pretty good string of pitchers:  Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, plus Maholm and Charlie Morton.  They have all had sub-4 ERAs in recent years.  Only Burres was easy, but he was an emergency starter, so what would you expect (and the pitcher he replaced, Ross Ohlendorf, had a sub-4 ERA in 2009).  And taking out Burres start, the Giants have still averaged 5.6 runs scored in those 8 games against, again, pretty good starting pitching (at least they were in recent years).

And one thing I like to do to analyze how well an offense is doing is count the number of games where the offense scored 4 runs or more.  To me, when the offense has scored 4 runs or more, the team should win most of the time, so it did its job.  The Giants were 66-15 last season when they scored 4 runs or more (they were 12-7 when they scored exactly 4).  And that was with the lousy 4.0 average runs scored per game team of 2009.  The Giants have scored 4 runs or more 7 times in 2010 so far, which matches their 7-2 record.

Similarly for the defense - pitching and fielding - if they keep the runs allowed to 4 and under, I count that as doing their job, and that they should win most of the time.  The Giants were 81-30 when they keep their runs allowed to 4 runs or less (they were 12-12 when they scored exactly 4; as to be expected when they averaged 4 runs scored per game).  The Giants have allowed 4 runs or less 7 times in 2010 so far, which also matches their 7-2 record.

And now they face the hated D-gers.  The D-gers are 3.5 games behind us, and it has been their pitching, or lack thereof, that has dropped them to 3-5.  To show how desperate they are, they have Russ Ortiz, yes, that Russ Ortiz, in their bullpen (Colletti is one GM who loves ex-Giants, a small club including Billy Beane, the Pirates, Orioles, and I think Toronto might be one soon as well).

Game 1:  Todd Wellemeyer vs. Vicente Padilla

Wellemeyer had a nice first 6 innings, but unfortunately, possibly due to the use of the entire bullpen in the game before, Bochy brought him out for the 7th, whereupon he was beat upon.  His 6th was a bit shaky, as the announcers noted it, where he gave up a homer, flyout, then a deep flyout, and I was hoping he would go out.

However, another good reason NOT to bring him out, besides the bullpen, is that unless Bochy puts Wellemeyer into such situations where he's struggling a little, he won't ever know what Wellemeyer is capable of.  His opinion would become a self-fulfilling prophesy.  And that is something many fans don't seem to understand, particularly in the early parts of the season, or even mid-season:  sometimes you take the chance to stretch him out to see what he's capable of.  Then later, you can make a better decision on what the right decision should be.  Hence why Bochy sometimes makes decision that "anybody" can see is wrong;  sometimes, you need to take that risk/chance to learn about your player.

Padilla is not his late-2009 LA self:  2 starts, 11.42 ERA.  But that is mainly the 14 hits in 8.2 IP, as he struck out 8 and walked "only" 4, which is high but when a pitcher's K/BB ratio is 2.0 or better, he is doing well.  And he is pitching in LA, home of one of the most consistently extreme pitcher's park of the past 50 years.  That's why Jeff Weaver comes back here all the time, he looks good here, and then signs for big money elsewhere based on that, then ends up back here because he looks horrible there.

Still, this is Padilla, who, aside from pitching incredibly well for LA in late 2009, has been a mediocre to poor starter for the past 6 seasons, and it is that performance that I expected him to regress to this season, and his poor start to this season only confirms that expectation.  And he got beat up by Pittsburgh, who, as we saw this week, does not have as good an offense as the Giants do.

With a well rested pen and a pitcher's park, I think Wellemeyer can do OK to the 6th inning, whereupon our now well-rested pen can come in and shut down the D-gers the rest of the way.  And Padilla will make enough mistakes that we make him pay for it, and the Giants should sneak away with a win, despite our #5 starter facing their #1, but it's not a gimme.

Game 2:  Tim Lincecum vs. Charlie Haeger

Well, the way Lincecum has been pitching, while there is never an automatic win, we do expect days where Lincecum starts to be one in the win column.  However, this is not one of them.

Not that I think Haeger is all that good.  Looking at his historical performance, Lincecum should win this battle.  However, Haeger is a knuckleballer, and the only way to beat one is to have a lineup of patient hitters unwilling to swing at the slop unless it is a strike.

And as any Giants fan knows, our lineup is the antonym of patience, and Haeger in his first start of the season made the Marlins look silly with 12 strikeouts in 6 IP.  They are a bunch of free swingers, striking out 22% of their AB's in 2009.  The Giants, while better this year, is still a bit of a free swinging team, though as recent articles by Schulman showed, they are now in the middle, with some good at taking pitches (Renteria, Huff, DeRosa) and others not so much (and you know who they are).  Still, they are still last in the NL in pitches per PA with 3.61 (average of 3.84); Florida has a 3.98 pitch per PA.

Still, despite his good performance, he still gave up 4 runs (3 ER).  So it is not like the Marlins did no damage,.  However, they did that with only 3 hits (1 homer) and 4 walks.  Not every team can score 4 runs on 3 hits and 4 walks.  But the Giants have been pretty good at manufacturing runs this season by stringing together key walks and hits to get runs, so there is that.

I'm going to have to call this a push, it can go either way basically depending on which Haeger shows up, the one that did that to the Marlins or the one who has been showing up for the prior four seasons.

Game 3:  Barry Zito vs. Clayton Kershaw

Zito is probably off to his best start ever, certainly best as a Giants and the first time he won the first two starts in the season since 2003.  He didn't even do that in 2002, his Cy Young season, where he didn't win two games until his first start in May, and last year he didn't win his second until June 5th.  He has been known to be a slow starter and typically have a better ERA in the second half of the season, where his fanaticism with working out benefits him by him being stronger than others relatively as the season drags on.  He has also done well in D-ger Stadium, compiling a 3.86 ERA there over the years.

Still, Clayton "The Craw" Kershaw is not chopped liver himself.  He has a 2.51 ERA at home for his short MLB career (1.83 last season), and is their (so far) better version of Madison Bumgarner.  However he has had a tough 2010 season so far, only got to the 5.1 IP mark once in two starts, and had 6 walks and 5 walks, respectively in those two starts.

If he's the 2010 version, then we got this game easily, but if he the 2009 version, then we don't got a chance.  It can go either way, and I have no idea. But the good news is that he has no clue what the problem is.

Giants Thoughts

Any D-gers series is always tough.  Especially since we only have one of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez facing them, so they get off relatively easy.  Still, Zito has been on a roll and Wellemeyer shut down the Braves for 6 IP.  This series can go either way, but with the Giants pitchers generally doing very well and the D-gers pitchers have NOT been doing very well, particularly the bullpen, I would have to think that they can pull off a series win here as well but there are two many question marks about the D-gers starting pitching to say that definitively.

Go Giants!

FLew The Blue Jay

As has been reported by numerous channels (including his Facebook account and Twitter), Fred Lewis has been traded from the Giants to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.  (Schulman, Splash, Baggerly, ExtraBaggs, sfgiants.com).  He thanked his supporters and is happy to move on.

Giants Thoughts

Reading through all the accounts, it just sounds like it was time for Lewis to go, that he (and the Giants) would be better off if he were in another place.  Sometimes in life, you just need a change of scenery to change things for the positive.  Lewis has been asking for a trade since last year and it sounds like he would be a poison on the bench because he's unhappy with Bochy's handling of him.

I wanted the Giants to keep him, as he at least has had success at one time or another as a starter in LF, but if he's unwilling to bat lead-off when the manager wants to bat him there, what are you going to do?  I was hoping he could be adult about this and accept a backup role on our team, but the Chronicle account noted that Lewis "believed he would molder under a manager unwilling to let him play."  I still prefer him over Velez and Torres, though I'm OK with seeing Torres platoon with Bowker in RF, but I'm not shedding tears over it.

Still, there are many tear-jerkers out there complaining about this deal and they don't really get that his MLB stats is not the only evidence of his abilities, his minor league performance is too, and it was never pretty there nor particularly good when viewed by MLEs.  And his defense could be great one year and horrendous the next, he was very inconsistent.

Which shows the great conundrum of Fred Lewis, the ballplayer: his inconsistencies as a player all through his career.

Do you believe in his 2008 batting line of .282/.351/.440/.791 (BABIP .365) or do you believe in his 2009 batting line of .258/.348/.390/.738 (BABIP .344), which was boosted by 5 HBP whereas he had zero in 2008? His MiLB career BABIP of .339 suggests that 2009 is more of his future than the shiny .365.  And what good is that if he believes that he's a #3 hitter and not a leadoff hitter?

The thing is, you can't really tell what type of player you got after two seasons, particularly when he has basically a good first year and a bad second year. I think Jeff Francoeur hitting is a pretty good example of that. However, when you start to mix in what he did in the minors, then it becomes clearer which is the mirror and which is the mirage:  his 2009.

And people often forget to account for age when looking at what a player does in AAA. I'll bet many will look at his great stats right now in AAA and think how stupid the Giants are, but the fact is that at age 29, he's a man among boys in terms of experience, he better be beating up on them.

Bottom line, he's 29 years old and very inconsistent.  The story was that this was a result of him playing football, but he stated very clearly that he doesn't know how that story got put out there, but he's been playing baseball all his life and it is his first love.  Just chew on that thought while thinking about all the times he took the wrong route to the play or showed no instincts at all for playing the outfield.

Also, as a left-hander, he has to know about how badly AT&T Park affects his power, or what little of it he has displayed in his career.  The scary thing is that he has hit waaay better at home than on the road (a la Ishikawa), if he had been hitting what he hit on the road (career .245/.323/.378/.701 and that is a fluke of his 2007 season, the last two seasons, roughly .313 OBP and .670 OPS), nobody would be crying over losing him.

As a final note, this is what his new team GM, Alex Anthopoulos, thinks of him: "He's a pretty good athlete. He can run a little bit. He's really just a left fielder in our eyes, but he's someone who we think can be a good left-handed bat off the bench and a guy that, if he's ever thrust into more playing time, at least he's done it before and he's more familiar with that type of role." At least he's done it before, that is the best they can say about him. If he thinks that he's better off with them, great, but I think he's going to regret it by the end of the 2010 season.

Here's hoping we pick up another nice prospect pickup in the trade, I like the pitcher we got for Snyder, who we traded to the Rangers.  Much better than money.

Your 2010 Giants are 5-1: Please Continue Stealing Pirate's Booty

Wow, the Giants just keep it going and being lucky to some extent.  I was totally wrong about Houston.  Part of that was Berkman being out and me not accounting for it, but still, their pitchers were not push-overs either, particularly in Houston, so kudos to the Giants offense for taking care of them.  And the Giants lucked out with Chipper Jones hurting himself the day before our series, and ended up missing the whole series.  Given how we squeaked out the win on Friday, I have to think that him being around would have changed that story.

Still, the Braves have a good rotation, and we faced Hudson, Lowe, and Kawakami, who have been very good pitchers before.  And we scored 13 runs total, 5 runs in the first and 6 runs in the third game, so the offense did very nicely against good pitchers (though it wasn't Hudson we scored on, it was their bullpen).

In any case, the Giants can't help it if they are given some lucky breaks.  The key is that they are taking advantage of those breaks and winning, whereas before they might have lost the games anyway.  And Friday's come from behind win after the 8th matches all of 2009, where they only did it once all season.  Plus, until Sunday, they had been doing it without Sandoval being the big power hitter he is.  And now they are 5-1.

Got the matchups from Schulman.  As I noted before, I think the Giants should win the series.

Game 1:  Ohlendorf vs. Zito

Ross Ohlendorf had a great breakout year in 2009 with the Pirates.  He was stuck with the Yankees and the trade to the Pirates gave him the opportunity to start and he took it and ran with it, with a nice 3.92 ERA.  He did that with a 5.6 K/9, which only worked because he had a K/BB of 2.06.  Still, a BABIP of .269 suggests that he was very lucky with his balls in play, with a likely regression to .300, unless he is one of those crafty pitchers able to get away with that, which are very rare, and so the best assumption for now is that he will regress.  In addition, he was like Ishikawa last year, great numbers at home but terrible on the road (2.64 vs. 5.56 ERA).

Meanwhile, Zito has done better each year in AT&T, rising to a 3.92 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and K/BB of 2.81 in 2009, both very good for him, and heck good for any pitcher.  His velocity sounded like it was still there in spring and he was great in his appearance against the Astros, throwing a DOM start.  We should win this game.

Game 2:  Maholm vs. Cain

Paul Maholm has been like Ohlendorf but for his career with the Pirates, great at home, horrible on the road (3.58 vs. 5.24 ERA, poor K/BB either way).  He has been better in SF for 3 starts, 4.00 ERA, good strikeout rate, good K/BB, so he looks like he could be tough, though his results have been up and down, and it was worse in last year's game, against our poor offense.  

Matt Cain has been way better at home than on the road (3.24 vs. 3.88).  However, the prior two seasons while still better, his road numbers were very to his home.  But, in any case, this is a home game for him, so he looks like he should rock again, for, although he gave up a number of runs in his first start in Houston, he struck out 5 and walked none, which he hardly ever did prior in his career, walks was his nemesis.  The Giants should win this matchup.  

Game 3:  Morton vs. Sanchez

Charlie Morton got free of the Braves and got to start 18 games for the Pirates, doing relatively well with a 4.55 ERA but like the others, great at home, horrible on the road (3.10 vs. 6.04 ERA, horrible K/9, poor to bad K/BB).  However, he had a very nice start against us last season, which seems flukey, but then again, it was last year's offense.  

Sanchez, I think, was a bit overwhelmed by the pressure of pitching in our home opener, but overall his problem was that the balls were finding holes and becoming hits.  He had 6 K's vs. 2 BB's, very good, in 4.1 IP but gave up 7 hits, though no homers.  He seems to not do well with the first start of the season, the past couple of years.  He has been almost equally bad at home and the road during his career, but he did really nicely last season with a 4.04 ERA.  And as I noted before, he did well after reverting back to his mechanics and he had a nice spring, but until he's more consistent, I think we just have to take one start at a time with him.  I would put this as a tossup right now.

Giants Thoughts

The guys to worry about are Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones (another reject who has found a home with the Pirates and the opportunity to do well, and he has so far), along with old pro Ryan Doumit behind the plate.  Iwamura is good too.  But the lineup otherwise look like the land of failed top prospects:  Jeff Clement at 1B, Ronny Cedeno at SS, Andy LaRoche at 3B, Lastings Milledge in LF.  And they have Delwyn Young, Bobby Crosby, and Ryan Church on the bench.  

They have averaged 5.0 runs scored per game against good rotation that LA has and faced both Haren and Edwin Jackson in Arizona.  So they have produced so far.  But Zito, Cain, and Sanchez should be on par if not better than what they faced against LA and AZ.

With these matchups, it looks likely that the Giants should win the series, and end up at least 7-2.  The Pirates pitchers are still relatively young and inexperienced, so they could pull a rabbit out of the hat and surprise us, but the more likely outcome is that they come in and not do all that well, while our guys have been good, particularly at home.  But with three games, odds are an outlier will happen, still I think it looks good for a series win, with some possibility of a sweep.

Obviously, 5-1 is a great start, but there are many games to be played.  I still think that 90+ wins is doable for this team, and if the offense can continue to produce up and down the lineup, with no one player driving the scoring, but a clear team effort happening (even with Renteria's hot hitting, it did not result in a lot of runs, which is a negative) with balanced contributions, then I think we could get more.  But it is too early to say either way, right now we should just enjoy each win.  A nice block of winning early on like this would go a long way towards keeping the other teams out of reach, though.