It's Official: Neukom KominK In-K

It was pretty much a foregone conclusion, but the MLB uninanimously and officially voted Bill Neukom into that 30-man fraternity known as the "Owners" of an MLB club, it was announced on sfgiants.com today.

Thank You Peter!

I will forever be thankful to Peter Magowan for getting the Giants this far as a franchise:

• Keeping the Giants in SF
• Building that beautiful park by the Bay despite decades of inertia in the SF political scene
• Making it possible to keep the Giants in SF for the indefinite future, with no future potential move hanging over the franchise for many years to come
• 8 straight years of winning baseball, the longest stretch for the Giants since the 14 straight years of winning baseball from their first season in SF to basically when I became a fan (a coincidence, I assure you :^), the longest stretch of winning in the past 36 years (next longest is 5 years from 86-90), which means that in the last 36 years, only 13 were in stretches of sustained good performances, 23 years were either losing or winning just one season before losing again
• Bringing the pride in the franchise back again
• Bringing Barry Bonds (and by extension, Bobby Bonds) back home, where he belonged
• Making the Willies (Mays and McCovey) a big part of the Giants scene, as well as a lot of other past Giants, great, loved, or both

When It's Time to Change, You Got to Re-arrange

But it was time for a change.

As I've been writing since the 2003 season, the Giants could either dream big by spending extra money to shore up the team by getting Bonds' replacement (Vlad, Ordonez, Beltran, for examples), or they could pinch pennies and buy a bunch of mediocre players. Peter Magowan chose the latter path, leading to our current, long losing seasonal streak. As managing partner, he could have either brought in new investors to boost the cash flow to sustain such an expanded spending during those critical years or convince the current owners to pony up more money. He was unable or unwilling to do either.

Lucky for us, Sabean has been able to cobble together an excellent pitching rotation and closer, plus promising pieces in the bullpen and lineup (basically many of the rookies and near-rookies who have seen some playing time this season), while fulfilling the general order from ownership to buy the best vets available within the budget we had. In addition, there are a number of promising players now in the farm system who should be arriving starting in 2010 (and perhaps as early as late 2009), starting with Bumgarner, Alderson, Posey, Sosa, Villalona, Noonan, Gillaspie, and Rodriguez.

If these pieces were not in place already, I would be on board with changing GM today, but I'm not willing to jeopardize this re-build - and risk having the new GM trade away Cain or Lincecum, as many fans today irrationally feared - by making a change today. But we need to see progress each year still or then we risk losing our star pitchers to free agency before we start winning. If we do not progress each year, I would be OK with a GM change.

Long Live the Neukom!

I've already liked the stances and his messages thus far, which I'm paraphrasing. "We will do what we need to do in order to win, winning is the prime directive. " Which to me says if we need money to do what we need to do, he will bring it in, somehow. "Build the Farm." Which we all know is the right way to build a club. I am sure there are others, but these two come to mind fastest.

In this latest opportunity to send his message to the public, he added another nuance, which is something I've complained about and asked for over the years: add more coaches. Here is the quote: "That means we've got to keep building our farm system and our coaches, because those are the people who teach so the kids can play the game in the Major Leagues at the highest level." (italic bold emphasis is mine).

Invest in Coaches and Other Services

In today's world where the team spends literally $100M on the MLB payroll plus tens of millions on the draft bonuses plus on top of that the expenses for the farm system, why aren't there more coaches at each and every level, helping each team. I don't mean rovers, but actual coaches on every team. Heck, you can probably hire and assign someone to focus on and mentor our top prospects.

For example, we should have RHP and LHP on call who can come out and pitch extra batting practice when hitters need or want it. If it is something Barry Bonds (he had a LHP pitch to him at home and on the road), who is arguably one of the best hitters ever in MLB history, felt would improve his performances, it might help those lesser mortals, like Dan Ortmeier or any of our lefty hitters, to get more practice against LHP and perhaps not be labeled platoon potential starters. Likewise, have a RHP on call for the right-handed hitters, just for repetition. That's not coddling, that's ensuring your investments mature and develop and get the practice they need.

In addition, something I've touched on over the years is expanded medical care. There should be no excuse for Eyre not realizing that he needed drugs to help him with his ADD or countless other hitters who we suddenly discovered that he needed glasses to help him see the pitched ball. Our doctors should be catching such things and taking care of them proactively, not reactively.

And how much would that cost per season? I'll bet no more than $3-5M per year. Which is a small insurance policy amount to help ensure that we get the most out of our players. Overall, the team is probably spending at least $150M with regards to players and their development and care. That much extra per year is a pittance to the benefits those services can bring the team.

I was going to go over this in one of my segments in my Hey Series, but this was a good time to get it out there, given that the changing of the guard is now official. Hopefully, Neukom is both a man of his words and a man of action, and put all his directives into motion. But he probably wouldn't have been selected to head the powerful American Bar Association (I still think of a pub when I hear that :^) for a two year period if he weren't either of those. I believe that the Giants are in good hands and that he will bring needed changes to the culture and philosophy of the club.

And the Beat Goes On: Giants Sign Posey, Kieschnick, Crawford

This news direct from Andy Baggarly from his Extra Baggs blog (thanks to Allfrank for heads-up!):

* Posey gets in the neighborhood of $7.5M (very nice neighborhood! :^), which when I think of it, is more where it should have been, not the $5-6M that I thought he would get, because slots were up 20% this year over last, and 20% added to $6M is $7.2M which is close to that reported amount. In addition, it is a major league contract, which means he's on our 40 man roster starting next season and starts burning options, but given his achievements, if he doesn't make the majors within 2-3 seasons, that would be a huge disappointment.

* Kieschnick got $525,000 or $40K over slot

* Crawford got $375,000 or $92K over slot. He was not exactly confirmed, as the news is from the UCLA office who said that he told them that he's not coming back to school, and why and for how much.

* Extra news, Giants also sign 13th round pick, Juan Carlos Perez, who broke the Division II junior college record with 37 home runs. He fell because of visa issues, according to Baggarly, and thus the Giants signed him to a 2009 contract in order to allow him time to work that all out. He is an outfielder.

We are set at catcher now with Posey, both defensively and, hopefully, offensively, Gillaspie looks like he could cover 3B or maybe 2B, we'll see if Kieschnick is a corner OF and if Crawford can hit enough to be SS, as his defense, from reports I've seen, has been excellent though inconsistent.

I hope these signings stop the Naysayers mistaken assertions that the Giants are cheap and wouldn't go over slot. As I had documented from previous drafts, the Giants have been generous before, and for more recent examples, they gave Lincecum $200K over slot, and I think about the same for Bumgarner too.

Of course, giving Posey over $7M is way over slot even if he were the first pick, but given his achievements this year both in hitting and winning awards, can be justified, and especially since they need him that much as well. Leverage is good and Posey had it. At least it is much closer to the $6M Weiters got than the $12M that Posey was rumored to be asking for.

BA Pre-Season

I didn't report on this before, but Baseball America, in their annual prospect book, listed the top college and high school players at the time of publication. Posey "only" ranked 17th among college players; his play during the season obviously boosted his stock. Crawford was actually ranked HIGHER than Posey, he was 10th. And Gillaspie and Kieschnick were ranked near Posey, they were 21st and 22nd, respectively.

Rundown on Signees

Looking back, I didn't include Jonathan Mayo's excellent profile comments when they were originally picked, so I'll run them down here with some comments:

• Posey: Posey has advanced hitting skills, good knowledge of strike zone. Thinks his power is gap-to-gap, and can develop into 10-15 HR annually. Despite his SS pedigree, he doesn't run much better than other catchers and is still a slightly below-average runner. His fielding is behind other catchers but he already as quick footwork and should improve the more he catches. His strength is that he's a highly sought-after package, a catcher who'll be able to stay behind the plate and can hit, but that's his weakness, his inexperience as as catcher, only converting from SS to C two seasons ago; experience will teach him the nuances of the position. Summary: College catchers who can stay at the position and can hit are always a hot commodity and Posey will be no exception. He's got a great approach with the bat and has a little power. As a converted shortstop, he's still a little raw behind the plate, but all the tools are there for him to be just fine and help ensure he gets drafted fairly early.


• Gillaspie: Gillaspie is a left-handed hitting third baseman in a Bill Mueller-type mold. Hitting is his best tool, very good hitter, knows what he's doing at the plate. However, with not much power, he's basically a hitting machine. He's also got below average speed but excellent base runner, so he'll steal some bases. He'll make an adequate 3B, but his lack of power keeps him from having a true profile position. Summary: After a strong Cape season, Gillaspie has followed up with an excellent junior campaign. He's a terrific hitter and has been over .400 for most of the year. His lack of power makes it hard to profile him anywhere other than as a Bill Mueller-type third baseman. There are worse things to be, of course, and a team that values what Gillaspie can do will surely take him.


• Kieschnick: He is a big, athletic left-handed hitter (throws right) who reminds some of Mark Teahen. The big things for him is that he has excellent raw power, mostly to the pull side, and he's a 5 tool type of player, though hitting is his biggest question mark. He has above-average speed, and being aggressive, could steal 10-15 bags a year. He has the potential to be an above-average RF, he has a plus arm and gets good breaks and angles on balls, plus is very aggressive in the OF. Strengths are his raw power, good speed, aggressiveness in all facets of the game, and his weaknesses are his hitting mechanics, which leads some to wonder if he'll hit enough in the pros. Summary: Kieschnick is a potential five-tool corner outfielder who could hit for power and steal a few bases. He plays a fearless outfield, getting to plenty of balls and showing off a good arm at times. The one knock is an issue with his mechanics at the plate that concerns some about his hitting ability at the next level. Still, an aggressive college outfielder -- in a weak class of outfielders -- who has those tools should get plenty of interest.


• Crawford: There is what was and what is now. In the past, Crawfod has shown an ability to drive the ball, but he has struggled thus far in 2008. He has raw pull power and a solid average runner, though confident enough to steal bases. Defensively, his hands have always been good, though he's not making the spectacular plays as regularly as he has in the past, as he seems to have lost a step and isn't getting to as many balls as he once did. When he's going well, he's an all-round shortstop who can hit, hit for power, steal a base and make the plays, but his confidence is shot this year and it's reflecting in almost all facets of his game. Summary: After his first two seasons at UCLA, Crawford seemed poised to be one of the top collegiate middle infielders in the class. But a rough Cape season appears to have carried over and he's lost some confidence in his game, both at the plate and in the field. Some added thickness to his lower half has taken away a little of his quickness, though he's still a solid shortstop. If he can right himself, he's the kind of player who usually sees himself go off the board within the first couple of rounds.

Also, here is some info on Juan Carlos Perez that I dug up:

• Perez: The reigning NJCAA Div. II National Player of the Year, the Dominican had one of the greatest offensive displays in junior college baseball history (and as Baggarly noted, Albert Pujols was a Dominican who play junior college baseball) playing for Western Oklahoma State. He rewrote the NJCAA Div. II record books by blasting 37 homeruns, shattering the previous mark of 23 and also the national record for RBI's also belongs to Perez as his 102 total now stands as the benchmark. He also hit .465 and stole 29 bases. An article noted his excellent speed and a strong arm. He was also teammates with the infamous Danny Almonte, and he played against Almonte in youth leagues in the Bronx and when they were in high school. He appears to be 21 years old, being three years out of high school (based on info in this article) and before this college season, he had spent two years playing in local men's leagues after finishing high school plus spent a winter with Almonte at Play Baseball Academy in Miami, Florida. At the academy, he became a student of the game, learning the finer points of defense and base running. He says he is also diligent in working out each morning to stay in shape. What I like is that he planned to pursue a degree in engineering in case things didn't work out in baseball, you got to have plans if you want to get ahead in life.

Overall

All in all, it looks like the Giants made a great pick with Posey, particularly since we have a need at both C and SS, positions he can play and be plus offensively - there has been no talk about moving him away from C, and it is not like Sandoval is a great defensive catcher, but I mention that only because we have no real good SS prospect and Posey can play both positions. Now he just has to deliver.

And with two players who were legitimate #1 pick overall material - Lincecum and Posey - in three drafts, that's pretty good picking (and lucky picking, it takes a community of teams to not select them and leave them for us to pick, but still you have to be smart enough to select them yourself and not follow the crowd).

Gillaspie is a question mark in that while he can most probably hit in the majors, where he will fit is the question. Offensively, he looks more like a 2B but he appears to be adequate enough defensively to play 3B and that is a position of need for us, though Rohlinger is developing. Still, he's a good pick that should pay off in the future.

Kieschnick and Crawford are both very raw but both had talent and tools enough to warrant pre-season selection as players who could go in the first round, Crawford especially, while Kieschnick probably would have been somewhere in the first half of the supplemental first round picks though could have gone somewhere late in the first round.

As I've noted before, my study on the draft shows that the amount of talent typically available in the back of the first round is not that clear cut, though the potential is there, and thus many of them fail to become good players, but still, the odds are much better for those types of players than it is for even 3rd and 4th round drafted players (except for those who fall down due to signability issues), almost exponentially so (about 10% vs. 1-2%). The upshot of all this is that unless you are getting Top 5 draft picks, finding good players via the draft is more a volume shotgun jell-o on the wall type of venture, the more you have the better. And the higher the talent level of players you are getting, the better off your system is.

Thus Kieschnick and Crawford are good additions to the farm system because they are considered better talents who had off-years that dropped them back a bit in the draft. Kind of like how we got Brian Wilson, his abilities would have warranted a higher pick, but he had the unfortunate timing of getting TJS the year of the draft. Of course, not the same situation as while TJS is pretty common today, not every player return to prior goodness and velocity, but my point is that it can be worthwhile to add players with questions marks (like EME and Marcus Sanders with their health) when they have a good set of talents that normally would get them drafted much higher. Again, it's the shotgun-jell-O-traveling salesman approach: it's scattershot but if you do it systematically, then it works out overall.

Pitching, Pitching, and Pitching

And, again, that's why I like the Giants emphasis on pitching in the draft. If you are not sure what you are going to get out of the draft, you can't really plan much things out. But by focusing more on pitching, that builds a core competancy and talent level in pitching in your organization until you have a complete - and superior - pitching rotation, and then you have the luxury of pushing good pitchers who don't have an open spot in the rotation, into the bullpen and build that up as well. Plus there are always pitchers who flame out as starters but can excel in the bullpen.

That's why we could leave Brian Wilson in as closer. Up to last season, the Giants were not sure whether they wanted him to start or relieve, though they kept him in relief because of his TJS history (I presume). If we didn't have Cain, then Lincecum, and now Sanchez, the Giants management probably would have felt the urgency to think about moving him into the rotation. Now they can safely leave him in there for the long-term, much like how Boston finally went with Papalbon as closer, when he was a starter before and wanted to start.

This way, the cream rises to the top until we have too much cream and our cup will overflow. And while trading is harder today, it seems, there is always a need for pitching, whether more or better, and if we have a cupboard full enough, we will be able to trade off pitchers to get the position player we need without hurting our chances of winning.

Meanwhile, you still pick up some position players along the way - you still need to field a team in the minors - and hopefully some of them are the lottery ticket that gets you a nice position player - not good but nice - as while no team requires a lineup full of great hitters, at minimum they need to be good enough to complement the good players you do have.

Which leaves free agency, both MLB (Rowand) and internationally (Villalona and Rodriguez), and trades as avenues to get the good players you need for your lineup as you rebuild.

I think the Giants have a good setup. Success is not assured but I like the way the organization is shaping up. Pitching is pretty set and even if the bullpen is unsettled, Bumgarner and Alderson should be able to shore it up starting in 2010. In the lineup, we have Rowand as a plus and Lewis as an average (but good) player. By 2010, Posey should be good at catcher. Villalona hopefully will be super at 1B, but that's not a give yet. However, Sandoval looks like he'll be OK at 1B, with Ishikawa as backup there, or even catching next season if Ishikawa can continue whacking the ball like he has. Schierholtz looks like he could be good in RF. I still think Frandsen is the guy at 2B and he could be average (but good) there as well. That leaves SS and 3B. Not too shabby, overall

Giants Youth Brigade Marches On

Breaking news broken by Andy Baggarly: The Giants call up Travis Ishikawa, Pablo Sandoval, and Ryan Rohlinger and send down John Bowker and Stephen Holm plus DFA's Jose Castillo.

The trio has been on fire in the minors, particularly after getting promoted to the next level. Ishikawa was batting .312, Sandoval owned a .339 average and Rohlinger was at .296, according to sfgiants.com.

Meanwhile, Bowker has been ice cold for a long while, Holm has never recaptured his early season shininess, and Castillo hasn't been good for a long while.

No, Thank You!

But thank you to Castillo for filling a hole in our roster for as long as he did. He kept the spot warm, essentially, until Rohlinger could figure some things out in the minors. And who knows, both Boston and Tampa are both missing 3B, perhaps they would be willing to throw us a prospect so that Castillo can stop-gap for them (though I had been hoping either of them would send us a decent prospect in exchange for Aurilia)

And Holm got to experience the big leagues for most of the season, something he most probably wouldn't have gotten to do if Alfonzo didn't have his problems then got suspended again for PEDs. I don't think he'll be making the majors again, barring injuries.

And thank you to Bowker for giving us Giants some early season hope in this transitional rebuilding year. He was actually not doing that well early on, despite all those homers against the Cards, but moved things up a giant notch in June, but just couldn't adjust back in July and August when other teams started figuring him out. Some think the Giants blew it by bringing him up too early, but given that he hit .325/.373/.584/.958 in June, with 4 HR in 77 AB, I think he was ready to come up, he just wasn't able to adjust back lately. I assume this is not the last we see of him, he will certainly come back up in September and will be in the mix at 1B and OF in 2009.

New Trio

Ishikawa, 24, first hit .291/.382/.462/.844 in AA with 8 HR in 234 AB (30 AB/HR) then was promoted to AAA and hit .310/.370/.737/1.107 with 16 HR in 171 (11 AB/HR). He takes over for Bowker in hitting against RHP at 1B and hopefully will see time against LHP as well.

Rohlinger, 24, first hit .285/.368/.419/.787 in hit happy Advanced A San Jose with 7 HR in 277 AB (40 AB/HR) then actually brought things up a notch at AA, where power goes to die normally, and hit even better, .296/.358/.497/.855 with 6 HR in 159 AB (27 AB/HR).

Sandoval, newly 22, first hit a scorching .359/.412/.597/1.009 in San Jose with 12 HR in 273 AB (23 AB/HR) then almost kept it going in AA by hitting .337/.364/.549/.913 with 8 HR in 175 AB (22 AB/HR).

So our young crew has been heating things up in the minors for much of the season, though I must temper any newbies thoughts that this all mean they will dominate up here, it is much different down in the minors than up here, there are actually pitchers up here who know how to pitch, unlike the minors, and they will expose you fast once they figure you out, much like Bowker, or Niekro before him, or any prospect ever. Here are their MLE's:

Ishikawa: .267/.319/.595/.904, with 12 HR in 176 AB (15 AB/HR) based on AAA
Rohlinger: .248/.297/.399/.696, with 4 HR in 164 AB (41 AB/HR) based on AA
Sandoval: .287/.309/.447/.756, with 6 HR in 177 AB (30 AB/HR) based on AA

So don't expect too much out of any of them right yet, though obviously Ishikawa would be the better bet based on his hot streak and MLEs. Still, it is a huge jump from even AAA to the majors, so you never know. Rohlinger got the start today and the other two should see action soon enough.