My Life Passing In Front of My Eyes

Or a nice sucker punch, right up into my gut. That's some of the merriment I (and millions of Giants fans) enjoyed when they first learned of Lincecum's unfortunate appointment with a batted ball. It could have been a shattered kneecap, though when I finally saw the footage in the evening news, it was clear to me that the damage couldn't have been that bad, he was still hobbling around - I would think a shattered kneecap would just leave you on the ground sobbing.

The X-rays proved negative: he did not suffer any breakage. So he should just have one nasty bruise where the ball hit and the talk is that he would make his next start, though I would prefer that they either skip his next start, or push it back a few days to give him more rest and recovery. His agent has already said that he's OK and ready to start his next scheduled start.

Good Pitching Is Good to Have

This incident serves to remind us that he won't be with us forever and that a player's future could be taken away, just like that, on the baseball field. That's why it is good we got Bumgarner and Alderson waiting in the minors, plus Sosa as another possibility. Pitching is a good commodity to have a lot of.

Can never have too many pitchers, and that's the beauty of focusing on pitching, when another good one comes up, you can just slot him in almost anywhere, rotation, bullpen, closer (assuming he's THAT good). Unlike position players where if you end up with two of them, you often need to trade one away (like Texas with their litany of good 1B, Texiera, Hafner, Adrian Gonzalez; or the Giants and Willie McCovey and Orlando Cepeda). Pitchers can be easily additive to almost any staff, everyone can use another good pitcher and insert him in somewhere; hitters, not so much.

And what's up with Brad Ausmus? He's a nothing catcher offensively whose name I seem to hear every time we face the Astros, and never in a good "another DP" way. I'm sure there is a Lincecum Death Squad of Giants fans already headed for Houston to take out Ausmus when the time is right. Make it so.

Giants Moves Afoot: Ishikawa and other prospect talk

According to the crack reporting of Andy Baggarly, apparently the Giants are looking to boost the offense by making some changes. The most significant change would be replacing John Bowker, who has been very cold for a long while offensively, with Travis Ishikawa, who has been hot since the start of the season, and white hot since he joined Fresno a little while ago. Ishikawa just went through a recent stretch where he hit seven homers in 33 AB, and he has hit .317 with 16 homers in 167 AB since joining Fresno.

This following blurb was in the article about Ishikawa:

Ishikawa was once on the verge of flaming out as a prospect and there were
times the Giants questioned his commitment. But farm director Fred Stanley said
the organization didn't light a fire under him.

"He did it himself,'' Stanley said. "Some people take a little longer maturity wise. He's driving the same pitches that he fouled off last year. He looked like he waited a long time just to see if the pitch was a strike. Now he's confident enough to know he can
expand the zone, attack pitches and drive them out of the ballpark.''

I had heard that before, that he was thinking too much when going to his AB. Nice to see that he appears to have finally figured that out. Then again, with Ortmeier, then Bowker, plus Villalona, appearing to be above him on the organizational totem pole, that should have been fire enough to get him moving, without a good season this year, he was probably going to wash out as a flamed out prospect after the season. Much like Bowker last season, something finally clicked and he started whacking the ball with more authority, more frequently.

Prospect Talking

Andy Baggarly has a great blog where he posts stuff, like his recent talk with Fred "Chicken" Stanley, who is our new farm director, taking over for long-time chief, Jack Hiatt. There was a lot of good stuff about some of our top prospects:

• Sandoval: Ready for the big leagues now. Crushing balls from both sides of the plate... No longer taking ground balls at third base; that experiment is over. Very competent at first base, though, and has some skills behind the plate. A very strong arm, too. Quote: "... once there is a need, he'll be here."
• Ishikawa: Really turned it up a notch this season. Playing with more confidence and appears driven. The organization didn't need to challenge him; he did it himself. He was too indecisive last year and let pitches get too deep on him while trying to figure out if they were strikes. Thus, he whiffed or fouled off hittable pitches. This year, he’s driving them out of the park. Most of his shots are going to right-center, though he hit a ball out to left-center at Round Rock last week. Quote: "...but he's ready if they need him."
• Noonan: He might jump to AA next season, skipping San Jose. He already has the best strike zone discipline of any hitter in the system. They expected maybe .250 but he's hitting .283 this season, plus 26 SB in 29 SBA, very good success rate for minors. Great that he has been able to grind it out in his first pro season.
• Tanner: Had a shoulder issue but is back on the mound. He’s building up arm strength again. Got away from throwing strikes because he got hit hard in the Cal League. That’s typical because pitchers stress over results and those can be warped in some of those hitter-friendly Southern Division parks. (Trust me, the wind has never blown out of Wrigley Field like it does at Lancaster.) Quote to note: “These kids just have to learn you’ve got to be a strike thrower to pitch in the big leagues.”
• Alderson: What a great debut season despite a challenging assignment at High-A San Jose. He works fast, hits spots and disrupts the hitter’s rhythm. He always seems to make quality pitches. Competing extremely well. (This is not from Stanley, but I’ve heard others say that Alderson really reminds of Derek Lowe. Throws a heavy, heavy ball with great command. If he adds a bit more velocity, and the Giants think he will, he could have Kevin Brown stuff.) He’ll finish the season in San Jose and probably take instructional league off.
• Bumgarner: “He’s a special kid.” Bumgarner is throwing strikes with his fastball, which sits at 94 mph and is known to come in a tick faster at times. He’s working on a changeup. He’s got a little deception where guys don’t pick the ball up on him, which makes it tough when he buries them with an inside fastball. His slider down and in on right-handers is very tough. Like Alderson, Bumgarner will complete his full season at Augusta and probably take instructional league off.
• Gillaspie: There was talk of moving him to second base when they drafted him. But obviously, the organizational depth chart is much thinner at third. They’ll let him get his feet on the ground before they make any heavy evaluations.

Good stuff to hear about these prospects. Exciting to know that Sandoval and Ishikawa is ready. Particularly given the above about bringing him up and taking 1B from Bowker. Noonan too, he's gotten too little notice, me included, because of Villalona, but he's been holding his own as an 18 year old much younger than most players there. He could be one season away from the majors at this pace, he could be a September call-up next year, being in AA.

Tanner, I was wondering what happened to him, good to know it was injury that caused his poor production this year, but bad to know it was an injury, that's not a good sign for the future, particularly since it is a shoulder injury. Got to keep your fingers crossed with him. Alderson, wow, comparison with Kevin Brown, Brown was totally dominating when he was on. Bumgarner, double wow, great run down of his positives. He is coming around very nicely, I'll be surprised if he didn't jump two levels to AA like they might do with Noonan. Gillaspie, nothing much there, just hope they stick with him at 3B for now.

Expert Says "Don't Worry About Posey"

Baseball America's latest "Ask BA" column discussed the top picks who haven't signed yet. They also noted some above slot signings in the 3rd and 4th round by the Nats.

Posey Situation

BA says: "Fear not, Giants fans." They note: "We're going through the usual last-minute rhetoric, with both clubs and players laying it on thick. "

They predict that "... Florida State catcher Posey (No. 5, Giants) will get [one of] the most lucrative deals in this year's draft, landing [a] major league contracts worth more than No. 1 overall pick Tim Beckham's deal with the Rays. Beckham signed a draft-record $6.15 million bonus, with MLB calculating the present value at $4.7 million after Tampa Bay spread it over five years under provisions for two-sport athletes. "

And that's what I've been guessing as well, something in the $5-6M range, something like what Weiters got last season. For lazy agents who are Boras wannabes, they drag the negotiations to the last moment in hopes of getting that final bit of leverage and help pay for their high agent fees when the draftee probably could have signed a contract like Tim Beckham did without much haggling. They are just doing this to justify their fees and their existence.

That's why smart players like Ray Allen (NBA) negotiated on his own and hired experts on a consulting basis to look over the papers and make sure there are no legal backdoors and such. Saved himself a huge agent fee and probably got himself about what the agent would have gotten. With the slotting of baseball (or any other major sport), you only really need an agent if the team is a cheapskate historically (Giants have not been in that category) or you really want a lot over slot, which could be the draftees in the top 5 to top 10 picks overall. Those players have been going with Boras.

Over Slots

With the Nats signing Long Beach State shortstop Danny Espinosa (third round) for $525,000 and Florida high school pitcher Graham Hicks (fourth) for $475,000, that gives us an approximate ceiling on where our 3rd and 4th round picks, Kieschnick and Crawford might get, though Hicks had more leverage as a high schooler and got a bit more for that probably (if he had a good advisor). I don't see how they can turn down half a million now for the chance to improve their performance next season and maybe get a million as a first round draft pick.

If they can really improve their performance next season, then if they signed for $500K now, they would be doing it as a professional and probably a season closer to the majors (which pays nearly $400K per season), than they would saying back in college, and risking having little leverage as a senior. If you really believe that you can do better, wouldn't it be better in the minors than in college? Plus, had they signed early like some did, they would both have 100-200 ABs under their belt, and if they were as good as they think they could be next season, they could have boosted themselves even higher up the minor league ladder.

Haggling over what would probably end up being less than $100K difference from the slot doesn't nothing for their security (though it does give their agent a nice payday) plus prevents them from showing what they think they got and getting a headstart versus most of the rest of the draftees. All over an amount that is not lifechanging (not anywhere close to how lifechanging the bonus itself is).

Hopefully they sign, I don't have a gut feeling either way for the two, I am pretty sure Posey will sign one of the highest deals of this draft, but these two should have signed already. Yet they still haven't so that is discouraging to me, because that means that they have advisors who might not be totally representing their best interests, as it was in their best interest to sign quickly and prove yourself quickly before the others do.

If they are as good as they think, they would have been competing against a bunch of players from the later rounds and could beat up on them quickly and maybe get promoted quickly to Augusta or even San Jose. Now there will be little time to evaluate them - because while they might have nice college stats, this is the pros now, things are way different - and they will probably start lower than they could have been next season, had they played and proved themselves.

It is not like they were early first round picks, who are more of a sure thing, they were back of the first round type of guys, who are pretty much rolls of the dice to see what happens. Talent like that cannot really leverage to get much over slot, it's not worth it for the teams to do that. Now, they might believe that they are top of the draft talent, but neither of them were considered that highly from all the draft news I read.

I am more confident about Kieschnick signing than Crawford - Crawford has a UCLA degree he's working for that is valuable - but, still, not sure if either will sign.