I've been complaining about Zaidi's strategy so far for preparing for the NextGen Giants. Our hitters will be matriculating in the next 1-2 years, and as we all know, developing pitchers (or any prospects) usually take about 4-6 years, unless you hit the jackpot, like we did with Lincecum and Bumgarner, even Cainer took 4 years, we drafted him at 18 YO, he made the majors at 20 YO, he had his first full season at 21 YO, his first good season at 22 YO, and was 24 YO when he had his first ace level season.
Meanwhile, Zaidi drafted only one pitcher in the 2019 draft, and used three of his best four bullets in the 2020 draft on hitters, but at least picked up Kyle Harrison next, which values him in the 26-33 range. And now in 2021, finally drafted pitchers with his first 9 picks, and 14 of the 20 rounds. But is it too late? Because prospects take 3-6 years to develop, so these 2021 draftees won't be reaching the majors until 2024-2027, on average.
So that got me wondering: how have teams found an ace level pitcher over the years? So I compiled from Fangraphs the top 30 pitchers. FG ranked by WAR for qualified pitchers, which is what I wanted to examine, pitchers who were not only good but good enough to pitch what is considered a full season. So I collected all that data, then supplemented by determining which team acquired the pitcher, as well as when and how (draft, IFA, FA, trade), to get a view of how teams have been acquiring these players.
Then I combined together the ranked pitchers to get a consolidated view of the universe of starting pitchers who ranked among the Top 30 (I used only the Top 30 showing on the first page of Fangraphs leaderboard, there might be pitchers who have the same WAR as #30, but to simplify my data collection, which probably started weeks ago, I went only with who were on the first page), as that's then roughly the ace pitcher each 30 teams could have theoretically had, if they were allowed to draft by top pitchers each season.
This post shares my analysis and conclusions.
And Merry Christmas to all! I wish you all a safe and healthy holiday period!
And I have to imagine that Moonman Minton enjoyed the heck out of this draftee!
Will Bednar was taken 14th overall in the MLB Draft by the San Francisco Giants (San Francisco Giants take Mars native Will Bednar in first round of MLB Draft). It should be noted that some were disappointed the Giants passed over Khalil Watson, a top ranked HS SS, who likely fell because he wanted a lot more than what teams wanted to give him (which could be his way to get the team he wants to join to end up with him; or he really wants to see the money).
Here are the free sources I read to gather intel on our new pitcher:
As many of my readers know, I haven't been happy with Zaidi's fixation on position players during this tenure as head of Giants baseball operations (in his first draft, he selected 9 hitters in the first 10 rounds). So I was very happy, as a corrective, that the Giants drafted pitchers with their first nine picks of the 2021 Draft, ending with a position player (OF) in the 10th round (link).
I've been following this season, and been enjoying it so far, pleasantly surprised, but if you follow me, you know that I have not been happy with Zaidi's strategy for the starting rotation, which is basically what the Dodgers did when he was the GM there: overflow the starting pitching on the roster with starting pitching projects, whether projects who they can improve or frequently injured starting pitchers who will be on and off the roster, mixed in with farm system prospects.
One of the key components of the 2010's dynasty is the starting rotation, so I wanted to dig into their performance so far to see whether this is a sustainable. For now, it reminds me of the 2010 Padres, who, as I wrote about back then, led the NL West with great ace level pitching by a staff that had no real history of being ace starters, and as that staff reverted to their mean, the Giants caught up with them, though it took a superlative stretch of starting pitching on the part of the Giants pitching staff at the end of the season.
Eight players were optioned to minor league camp, including a couple of guys who have big league experience. The optioned players are: Tyler Herb, Pierce Johnson, Chase Johnson, Reyes Moronta, Steven Okert, D.J. Snelten, Aramis Garcia and Miguel Gomez.
The Giants also reassigned five players to minor league camp: Tyler Cyr, Jose Flores, Dereck Rodriguez, Madison Younginer and Alen Hanson.
With the cuts, the Giants are down to 47 players in camp.
The problem: Stratton has a mediocre four-seam fastball (91.8 mph) and, if you lower the bar to 100 curveballs thrown, the fastest-spinning curveball in baseball (3,105 rpm). Batters hit .292 against his fastball, but only .100 against his curveball. But he’s stuck in an old-school way of pitching: 61% fastballs and only 18% curves.
The symptoms: Lefthanded hitters crushed Stratton, lighting him up for a .811 OPS, while he held righthanded hitters to a .670 OPS. Stratton throws his curveball even less often to lefties (17%) than to righties (21).
The mechanics: They need work. Stratton has poor arm deceleration, meaning his arm and hand brake too soon after release. He can improve velocity by working on better deceleration. He also can throw harder by driving his head and torso more toward the plate; he has a tendency to drift toward the first-base side of the mound while releasing the ball. Bottom line: there’s more in there.
How to get Morton-ized: Increase curveball percentage to lefthanded hitters, work the high fastball/curveball tunnel more often, and tighten mechanics.The problem the article noted was that the Giants are one of the leaders in the majors in using the cut fastball. It also noted how some pitchers were talked into using their better pitches more often and their fastball less.
