2021 Giants: Draft Man From Mars in the First Round

And I have to imagine that Moonman Minton enjoyed the heck out of this draftee!

Will Bednar was taken 14th overall in the MLB Draft by the San Francisco Giants (San Francisco Giants take Mars native Will Bednar in first round of MLB Draft).  It should be noted that some were disappointed the Giants passed over Khalil Watson, a top ranked HS SS, who likely fell because he wanted a lot more than what teams wanted to give him (which could be his way to get the team he wants to join to end up with him; or he really wants to see the money). 

Here are the free sources I read to gather intel on our new pitcher:

• MLB report (Maria Guardado) on Bednar selection, including Holme's quotes
• MLB Prospect Pipeline
• The Athletic: Keith Law and Melissa Lockard (subscription needed; highly recommended, includes Andy Baggarly as the Giants beat writer).
• Fangraphs: Keith Goldstein and Eric Longhagen
• Perfect Games Brian Sakowski tweet
• NBC Sports: Dalton Johnson
• SF Draft Talk: Brian Recca (I actually found this after I had pasted in the vast majority of the below, he covers similar thoughts, plus he covered the top five picks, in case you want to read beyond the first round pick, as I used to cover the first few picks, depending on my interest level in them)

As many of my readers know, I haven't been happy with Zaidi's fixation on position players during this tenure as head of Giants baseball operations (in his first draft, he selected 9 hitters in the first 10 rounds). So I was very happy, as a corrective, that the Giants drafted pitchers with their first nine picks of the 2021 Draft, ending with a position player (OF) in the 10th round (link).  

ogc thoughts

Not that I was entirely happy with Sabean/Tidrow methods, as good as they were overall (speaking of which, RIP Dick Tidrow, aka Dirt, aka The Ninja, thank you for 3 of 5 and helping put together the Team of the 2010's Decade). I understood spending many to most of their draft picks on pitching, as I believe that is the best way to build a team that can go deep into the playoffs and do some damage, and not luck out into one, like the Dodgers, by continually getting the door slammed into your face multiple times (albeit, by cheats, so we'll never know for sure) until you get that one. 

That's why the vast majority of teams rarely repeat, there is a lot of luck involved with winning any particular championship (like I recall the Reds in the 90's, had a team full of players who outperformed that season vs. their career before and after). The noise in the data that spooks people, but that they don't realize, is that no matter what, one team will win it all, and thus people point out the offensive-led teams that win it all. People are biased towards hitting, this is as clear as Babe Ruth making the MLB the American Pastime as a homer hitting OF instead of a great shutdown pitcher.  But repeating shows that they had some formula that worked, in my viewpoint.

Critics liked to denigrate the Giants 3 in 5 Championships, noting the lack of playoffs in-between and before and after, but let's devastatingly break the leg of your best hitter/player (while another of your top hitters breaks down mentally in the middle of the season and goes AWOL for a while before returning a shell of himself) and see if you can make the playoffs the next season.  I mean, the main point is to win the World Series, not to make the playoffs every year. And the Giants surely would have made the playoffs in 2011 with Posey healthy, they were leading the division until Beltran came in and broke something.

Anyway, I digress, as I am wont to do. Sabean/Tidrow focus on pitching meant that there was not a lot of hitting talent coming into the farm system, and thus not a lot of hitting talent making the majors. So I was glad when they hired John Barr, who had a history of finding hitters, sure, he lucked into Posey because the Giants had the fifth pick overall his first season, but he helped get the team focused more on talent, drafting talented players who fell for various reason, snagging Crawford, for example, who was first round material until a middling junior season caused him to fall to us in the fourth round (he wasn't even the first SS we drafted in that draft, if I recall right).  Under Tidrow, the Giants had a history (mainly driven by owners being cheap, but still) of overdrafting players, selecting them a round or more before they were expected to, skipping over talent that was available to them in later rounds, because they were minimizing bonuses.

But then Barr did the reverse, kept on drafting hitters with their first round pick, although they at least still drafted pitching predominantly over the entire draft.  As any good prospect hound knows, and especially for the first pick, where there should be greater delineation of talent, you pick best player available (BPA), and not for need. So I wasn't entirely happy with Barr's draft record either.

I had great hopes for Zaidi, but until this draft, he's been using his top picks on college hitters, which is what the SABR draft handbook says you should do, because it is hard and risky to find a good pitcher or a good high school player in the first round.  I was hoping he was not beholden to that viewpoint. I've loved the changes he has made to the coaching staff and to the minor leagues, but his drafts have been heavily on the hitter side than pitching side. 

Hopefully this is a sign that BPA is their M.O. in drafting, and that they are now taking pitching more seriously in the draft, which was signaled last season when they went after Kyle Harrison in the last draft.  I don't need to see pitching all the way through, nor do I need to see a pitcher selected always with the first round pick, I hope there is a balance between the two going forward and a focus on BPA (though clearly that didn't happen this time either, as Khalil Watson was passed over due to bonus money issues, but still, as I'll get into it below, Bednar looks like a good prospect with potential).

Man from Mars (Pennsylvania): Will Bednar

Saw a lot of good word about Bednar, so I like the pick, especially because he was put into the fire of the College World Series, and excelled, including coming in and pitching on short rest to lift his team to win the CWS, the first for their school, Mississippi State. He was named the Most Outstanding Player of the CWS because Bednar excelled in his three starts at the College World Series. He allowed just three earned runs in 18 1/3 innings while only giving up five hits, while striking out 26 batters (12.8 K/9) and walked only 6 (2.9 BB/9), for a great 4.33 K/BB ratio. 

As the 14th pick overall, he was ranked right in there by Baseball America (#18 overall), ESPN (#17), though The Athletic's Keith Law and MLB Prospect Pipeline both only had him at #32, as well as Fangraph's The Board had him at #32 (FYI, Khalil Watson was ranked 4th). Perfect Games had him at #27, in between, but closer to 32.  So he was an overdraft potentially, but probably would have been drafted before the Giants next pick at 50. 

He had never been drafted before. In the truncated 2020 season, he had a 1.76 ERA in four appearances (one start), showing some talent. But then he took off in the 2020 season, as he was given the prime weekend starter role, and he went 9-1 with a 3.12 ERA this season and struck out 139 batters (13.5 K/9) and walked only 26 (2.5 BB/9) in 92 1/3 innings. 

Here are some snippets about Bednar:

• Michael Holmes, Giants Scouting Director: What we really liked about Will was what he showed at the College World Series. He's a physical college right-hander with a fastball that misses bats in the zone and has the ability to miss bats with secondary stuff. I think anyone that got a glimpse of himi in Omaha saw the type of competitor he is, so he checked a lot of boxes for us as a starting pitcher... He's been on our radar for a while now... There's no bigger stage in college baseball than where he performed, so it certainly gave us great comfort.... He's a guy that we've seen has a quality changeup as part of his mix. Although he has two overpowering-type pitches with his fastball and slider, we certainly think there's a three-pitch mix in there to complete the arsenal. He has the ability to speed the ball up and soften the baseball, which is definitely something that we look for.  ...  Giants are confident he can remain a starter.
• Keith Law (The Athletic): ... a slider that ranks among the best in this year's draft... he does rely heavily on the slide for his swings and misses, although that fits in better with the majors today than it would have five years ago... should move very quickly, although there was a lot of disagreement among scouts over whether he could be a starter in the long term with so much reliance on the slider ... (NL West draft recap): They led off with CWS hero Will Bednar, a righthander with a plus slider who was worked hard by Mississippi State but has a legit out pitch and enough fastball to go out as a starter now. There's some reliever risk there, but he did work primarily off his fastball this year even with the temptation to go to that slider because college hitters couldn't hit it.
• Melissa Lockard (The Athletic's Giants Prospect writer): Evaluators like Bednar's ability to pitch effectively with his mid-90's fastball at the top of the strike zone, beating hitters with velocity and movement. He throws a sweeping slider that sits in the mid-80's and became a go-to weapon for him this season. Bednar also has a developing changeup he didn't need that often, but it's a pitch Holmes believes will be a useful part of a starter's arsenal. 
• Baseball America tweet:  The younger brother of Pirates reliever, David Bednar, Will has a plus slider and fastball.
• Kiley McDaniel (ESPN):  Got a late start to the spring due to a neck issue, then kept gaining steam all spring before shoving in Omaha; 65-grade slider is the separator here.
• Eric Longenhagen (Fangraphs): [reaction after draft] With Kyle Harrison and Bednar heading to San Francisco in consecutive years, I think it’s safe to say that the Giants are fine with guys whose stuff has lateral action. 
• Kevin Goldstein (Fangraphs): [reaction after draft] For much of the brief interval between the Phillies taking Andrew Painter and the Giants selection, much of the industry was sure that San Francisco would take Kahlil Watson. Some hypothesize that a deal fell through at the last minute and they downshifted to Bednar, who had a reported bonus demand in the $3 million range. No player in the game took better advantage of the later draft date than Bednar, who saw his stock skyrocket with his outstanding performance in the college postseason.
• The Board Pre-Draft Assessment (Fangraphs): Brother of Padres prospect David Bednar, Will is a strong-bodied righty who has been up to 96 and has some feel for a loopy, shapely curveball and a harder slider. He had shoulder tendonitis as a prep senior, which helped push him to school, and he is a draft-eligible sophomore for the Bulldogs. He's not especially athletic but could have a plus fastball/slider combo that enables him to pitch in relief if starting doesn't work out.
• Mock Draft 3.0 (Fangraphs): Bednar made a slow and steady climb on draft boards this spring, and then rocketed up them during the college postseason, thanks to one of the better sliders in the draft.
• Brian Sakowski (Perfect Games): [tweet after draft] Eligible sophomore who exploded this season for the national champs, plus FB and SL, pounds the zone, plus FB traits, enough feel for CH to project on it, tremendous performer.
• Maria Guardado (MLB.com):  A native of Valencia, Pa., Bednar sits at 93-95 mph and tops out at 97 with his fastball. He also features a mid-80s slider that emerged as a consistent plus pitch this spring, along with a solid upper-70s curveball and a developing changeup. Listed at 6-foot-2, 229 pounds, Bednar is known for his ability to pound the strike zone, a trait that the Giants have come to value under president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi.  “I’m a huge competitor,” Bednar said. “I’m going to compete wherever I go, and I’m going to work my tail off to be the best that I can be wherever I go.”
• Dalton Johnson (NBC Sports): He's known to fill up the strike zone, and his fastball sits 92 to 94 mph. Bednar did reach 97 mph this spring. 
• Brian Recca (SF Draft Talk): His pitch mix is fairly simple. He works primarily off of two pitches in his fastball and slider. The fastball is an above-average pitch currently with riding action when thrown up in the zone and some good tailing action when working down. When his fastball is on, you'll see a lot of swings underneath the ball resulting in whiffs, popups, and weak fly balls. ... It's not elite velocity at 94 and it's not even at the very top of the zone. But these are the kinds of weak swings Bednar can induce. 

Bednar has touched 97 MPH multiple times during the spring and will routinely get into the 95-96 area early on in starts. But even at his more typical 91-94 range, Bednar is still capable of generating empty swings at fastballs in the strike zone. Bednar's ability to locate his fastball effectively at th top of the zone improved as the season progressed. It's not pinpoint accuracy by any means, but I have it as fringe average overall. It's certainly not impossible for him to get that to a solid average level in time. The gains he made in such a short amount of time provide some optimism on that front. With a tick more velocity and more consistent command you can put a future grade of a 60 or even a 65 on the pitch. 

The slider is currently his best offering. It tunnels well with his fastball and it's hard for hitters to identify. He gets huge sweeping action on the pitch and the movement appears to be extremely late. Because of how late the pitch breaks (whether real or perceived) it's extremely difficult for hitters to identify and react to the pitch. The way his fastball and slider play together are ideal and fit "the meta" of attacking hitters in baseball today. Rising fastball up in the zone, breaking ball down in the zone. His ability to master this combination will make him a successful pitcher in some form. The development of a third pitch will be key in determining what role he ultimately fills as a pro.  (Brian has more great info on Bednar at his review, I recommend going there to read up on Bednar and other top draft picks)

• MLB Prospect Pipeline report:  Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale):

• • FASTBALL
    60
  • CURVEBALL
    55
  • SLIDER
    60
  • CHANGEUP
    50
  • CONTROL
    55
  • OVERALL
    50

All three of Mississippi State's weekend starters began 2021 with a chance to go in the top two rounds, but Bednar is the only one of them who has lived up to expectations. The younger brother of Pirates reliever David Bednar, he attracted significant scouting interest as a Pennsylvania prepster in 2019 before coming down with biceps tendinitis. Limited by a stiff neck at the beginning of this season, he bounced back to lead the Bulldogs to their first national title and win Most Outstanding Player honors at the College World Series. 

Bednar's previous exposure at Mississippi State consisted of just 15 1/3 innings a year ago before he opened eyes with sterling stuff in the fall that has carried over into 2021. He sits at 93-95 mph and tops out at 97 with his fastball, which can exhibit both heavy life and riding action. His mid-80s slider has become a consistent plus pitch this spring, surpassing his solid upper-70s curveball with depth. 

Bednar also has the makings of at least an average changeup and is pounding the strike zone more than ever, two more ingredients that add to his mid-rotation starter's profile. He doesn't have the cleanest delivery, but he makes it work and has a 6-foot-2, 229-pound frame built for durability. Scouts like his intelligence and competitiveness as well as his physical traits.

Bednar Looks Like a Good Pick

Beyond carrying this team on his back to winning their school's first CWS championship (this is typically what a Sabean pick would have on their resume, grit, competitiveness), Bednar had eye-opening stats as the ace of the Bulldog's pitching staff, with a 3.12 ERA this season, striking out 139 batters (13.5 K/9) and walking only 26 (2.5 BB/9) for an elite 5.35 K/BB ratio (which appears to be a Zaidi focus), in a total of 92 1/3 innings.  This speaks well for his skills as a pitcher.

Despite worry about reliever risk, he has two good pitches, with perhaps one (slider), pretty good, along with other average pitches he's developing, which the Giants with their coterie of pitching experts like Bannister, Bailey and Daniels, could help with advancing his expertise.  At 6'2" and 229 pounds, he certainly has a very sturdy build that should allow him to throw a lot of innings.  And the mention of him not having a clean delivery, I expect Daniels to work with him to clean it up, make it more efficient and effective, less strenuous.

However, he could rise as a reliever first as the Giants in the past (under Sabean, and I assume Zaidi as well because he has said that he will be aggressive as well, as we have seen with Webb) has not been hesitant to move a pitcher up quickly if he shows he can handle hitters in the lower minors (like Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, and others), so I can see a scenario where they could bring him up initially as a reliever, given his two good pitches, to help out the pitching staff, if he's handling the hitters well wherever he gets placed in the minors, they could always switch him back to starting in spring training and stretch him out.  But we'll see, given that the report is that Mississippi State rode his arm hard, many teams, including the Giants, sometimes take it easy on that pitcher that summer. So we'll see.

In any case, I'm intrigued that his slider is considered so good already, paired with a good fastball, and with at least average curveball and developing changeup. Given the Giants success with working with Kevin Gausman, I'm hopeful they can do something similar with Bednar. Gausman was utilizing lesser pitches (slider up to 20% of the time) and getting pounded, so they made him use his elite splitter a lot more (up to almost 30% in 2020, almost 40% in 2021 so far) and stop using his curveball and slider much, pairing it with his fastball. This essentially reduced him to a two-pitch starter, since he brings out the curveball and slider rarely now, and that is the worry about Bednar. Their success with Gausman is encouraging for what they might do with Bednar, from what I'm thinking.  

Post-Script

I don't have time to delve into the other pitchers drafted in this year's draft (but go to Brian Recca and the Giants 2021 Draft Tracker for more great info), but wanted to note that not only was Bednar considered an overdraft (and therefore, likely to sign for a bonus significantly below slot), but the second rounder, Matt Mikulski, is a senior, having the misfortune of having his junior season in the year COVID shortened the draft rounds to 5.

Historically, seniors do not sign for much (though as a second rounder, he hopefully will get a decent sized bonus. But at $1.47M for the 50th pick, even at $470,000 (many senior draftees get less than six digit bonuses, some only $5K), the Giants would save $1M to try to sign players who fell down the draft for bonus reasons (like their signing of Harrison last season; they drafted one HS player in the middle rounds this season too). Bednar has been reported to be asking for $3M, and the slot value for the 14th pick is $4,036,800, so there is the potential for around $1M savings from this pick as well.

In total, out of the 20 rounds, the Giants drafted four prep prospects, and will likely use the savings from these two picks (and perhaps others, I did not look into the others as in-depthly, but I'm sure there are other seniors) to sign some of the younger High School talents.  That is what most teams do nowadays to stretch out their bonus money and find better prospects later in the draft, that fell because of signability issues.

From what I've read, though, people did not feel that the Giants drafted high end talent with signability issues that would utilize the bonus savings, so it currently appears that the Giants were just saving money. I would guess that perhaps this relates to all the money they have been spending on the minor leagues, from higher salaries (though, from what I've heard, still very low) for prospects, to the salaries for extra coaches, to providing housing and food, to any additional tools and equipment they bought. It all adds up, and it comes out of somewhere. And right now, it appears to be coming out of their prospect signings, a return to the ownership policies of the mid-2000's where the Giants punted picks to save money. Which is a calculated risk, as I've noted in the past, but not a good long term policy, because the draft is the best way to inject talent into your farm system.